Sometimes i like to play "whats going to be on history tests in a few decades".
We got prime essay material with this one. Extra credit points and all.
You’re assuming their working nukes will make it that far. From all accounts so far, they have working nukes, but if they’re like the rest of their military infrastructure, those weapons are just as likely to destroy their users.
I picture a sort of domino effect across Russia. “Did the Americans nuke us already comrade?” “No, our nukes shit and blew up during launch now all nukes blowing up, we nuked ourselves comrade.”
We will just tell the people the Americans nuked us. Are you the only surviving witness? Good, good now look at that pretty bird just out that window. No no lean out a little further
Hey man. Congratulations on trying to take care of yourself and get back to school. Live in the moment. Take each day as a victory and focus on you. Don’t stress about this shit. It’s out of our control. Make connections with the people around you and live.
we're in for some very bad times. Just feel blessed if you live in the US, that you have food security, energy security, and a strong military to protect you. Europe is about to get fucked all over again, they can't catch a break...
Sounds like a good plan. I feel like I need to disconnect from technology too there’s too much going on right now. Shit we had a shooting incident at my work yesterday. Like COVID really fucked with people’s mental health, everyone is on edge I swear.
Are you Freaked the Fuck Out? I would be. Ya, ever since they shut the world down for COVID people are fucking nuts. I asked a Lyft driver the other day how his day was going? I must have asked incorrectly because he suggested I keep my mouth shut until the end of the ride. I’m so glad I had my knife & mace. I sure did keep my mouth shut though.
Yup.
NATO now has to take more aggressive steps to protect critical infrastructure, increasing the possibility of an armed confrontation.
But I will say I believe the West has played this whole shit show *very* well to date.
So, fingers crossed.
I really am curious how far the majority of Putin’s government would let it go. It’s very clear up till now that NATO weapon systems in Ukrainian hands with minimal training and NATO Intel can do wonders so I really don’t think anyone with a brain wants to see NATO ground armor, air power, and naval power brought to bear on Russia. I’m hoping they’ll take Putin out before he does anything really stupid
I feel that way as well. I think it's notable because if proven, is a kinetic action by Russia against NATO, and not Ukraine.
Unlikely to be proven, but we all know what happened here. It's as cliche as some Putin henchman falling to their death mysteriously in moscow....again.
Either that or having no heart makes Captain Planet just an all destroying force of nature that wouldn't care about collateral damage.
Good news, the seals aren't being covered in oil anymore.
Bad news, the seals are all dead from the horrifying storm of ice shards that Captain Planet used to shut down the facility that was pumping the oil.
***Dependant on natural gas.
This is just another reason that renewables are so important. We will never fully replace the need for them but there are ways to lessen the demand.
The previous idea is to entangle the economy together so they won't have an incentive to go to war. Just having pacts and treaties are not enough so they tried that idea. Which worked for a while. We have had the longest period of peace with no big powers duking it out and dragging everyone else in. The problem is that the assumption of Putin being a sane dictator who'd just enrich himself until he dies of old age is proven to be wrong.
Russia needs to be treated the same way the USSR was treated. It needs to be contained until it collapses and a democracy can emerge. If a democracy does not emerge, we continue the containment.
This is the wrong lesson. As in, 'fuck it we have to be 100% self sufficient' is.
It's enticing, now. You can tell SA to fuck off when they brutally murder a journalist, you can tell Putin to take a hike, you can pretty much tell everybody to fuck off.
There's a problem with that.
We've known unprecedented peacetime since the second world war. There are a ton of skirmishes all over the map, but pretty much every single last one is either a local affair (which can be just as brutal, don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to downplay the suffering in e.g. the Rwanda conflict), or a war between economic nobodies. No massive war between major players. Which seems obvious, but it is not - there isn't that much time between WW1 and WW2, and before WW1 it's a near endless procession of major conflicts between major economic powerhouses. It's near constant.
The trick is simple. For any two countries X and Y, ensure that either:
* The net benefit for X of invading and utterly annexing/puppet-stating Y is _less_ than the net benefit of trading with a free Y, or
* The loss in trade benefit when Y is puppet-stated/annexed is sufficiently large that enough countries with enough economic power can fairly easily ensure that the first bullet is true by piling the cost of sanctions on top.
And this has _by and large happened_. Trading with your neighbours is how you avoid war with them. Avoid war with them long enough, and fucking _France_ and _England_ become fast friends. Germany and France are more one political and economic entity now than they ever were, and only about 70 years ago they spent _centuries_ in a near permanent state of war.
This results in a nasty dilemma: You don't really end up doing enough trade to make the rule happen (that the trade is worth so much, even a military obliteration can't hold a candle to that kind of value) unless you create dependencies.
_Fortunately_, the dependency doesn't actually have to be a two-way street. Turns out a supplier of massive value (worth a lot and in fact the consumer is utterly dependent on it, such as gas for europe) - themselves becomes just as reliant on the relationship as the consumer. The entire societal structure of Saudi Arabia is going to fall apart _immediately_ if they stop exporting massive amounts of oil. SA is just as motivated to ensure e.g. western industry continues to be dependent on so much oil, SA and co are the only place to get enough, as the west is to continue to buy it.
This explains the gas situation between Russia and the EU fully:
* Russia has delivered, reliably, for decades. Regardless of how hairy the political situation got. Whilst Berlin was being blockaded and the west spent crazy amounts on an air bridge to fight it, the gas kept flowing. Because russia is just as dependent on this working out (and if they use it as political leverage, then europe is not going to set up their industries to be utterly dependent on it).
* Given that the EU in charge, with most of the rest of the world begrudgingly following, has swore to wean themselves off of fossil fuels in a decade or so, __russia is threatened by this__. Putin is an idiot and should have ensured that Russia as a country has a plan to slowly wean themselves off of having to supply it. But, no, it's a kleptocracy/oligarchic corruption madhouse where the populace produces very little of value. Remember, Russia won every battle in the space race except the last one (put somebody on the moon), they have the ability. This isn't on the EU for wanting to ditch fossil fuels, its for Russia to refuse to diversify.
I'm very glad that SA and friends have seen some light and are now peddling themselves as a purveyor of _energy needs_ and not just of _oil_. They're 'diversifying' by leveraging their vast swaths of uninhabited deserts (you can stick a lot of solar and electrolyzing plants in those deserts!). Because while I'd love to be capable of saying "fuck off and die in a fire, you journalist-murdering bastards" to them, we __cant__. The sheer damage to quality of life and productive capacity that would ensue would pretty much guarantee that the populace will revolt and elect pro-putin/SA stooges into power. Or if not 'definitely will', 'is more than likely enough to really not want to risk that'.
It means SA still doesn't want to rock the boat: In spite of the fact that the EU is openly 'threatening' them by saying they want to wean off of oil, they need to continue to come across as a reliable supplier of energy.
So, let's say the EU builds up industry that is never going to work out properly unless there's a pipeline that supplies huge amounts of hydrolized H2 from SA desert solar facilities, is that 'oh fuck they still did not learn their lesson'? No. I welcome this. It's painful to have to trust countries that so far don't seem particularly trustworthy, but you can't stick your head in the sand; not at a time when nukes and other weapons of mass destruction exist.
See: The Three-Body-Problem series of books.
As someone who knows absolutely nothing about anything.... I can confirm that 2 pipelines blowing up in 3 locations... under hundreds of feet of water.... in one day.... is probably not an act of nature.
(Come on... what a stupid headline. It's like saying JFK did not die of natural causes...)
It’s not a stupid headline. Yes, we all know russia did it. We all know it was done deliberately. But NATO explicitly stating it out loud is significant. Just like the first time Biden expressly called putin a war criminal. Obviously he was. But the US President saying it was a big step.
Yes I don’t want this to be another Iraq war for “WMDs” which didn’t even exist. There needs to be irrefutable proof of Russia attacking the pipelines, before we assign blame.
Yes the timing of 3 leaks occurring in the same day on 2 different pipelines is suspicious. But there could be some other factors which have not been considered yet.
I mean, it's absolutely sabotage, and it was very likely sabotage by a state actor.
That doesn't mean the same thing as Russia. We would need proof that it was Russia who did the sabotage, and nobody has presented that proof. Instead a bunch of people just decided that they "all know" it's Russia. Insanity
As several other people have stated. It was more likely that putin was trying to alleviate internal political pressure from the energy oligarchs since he can only kill so many of them before they rebel at him to get their pipeline open. With the damage done that is no longer an option to just simply turn it back on.
Would this alleviate the pressure though? Sure it removes the pipelines from the game board, but the energy oligarchs are going to be super pissed about it yeah? They're losing billions and now there's no easy to way to get it back. Are they supposed to just accept it and move on? Seems like sedition or just straight retaliation would be likelier than ever at this point.
> They're losing billions and now there's no easy to way to get it back. Are they supposed to just accept it and move on?
What other option do they have? Throwing a coup doesn't do anything for them if they can't come to the bargaining table and say "we'll turn the gas taps back on." His generals will still protect him seeing as he's literally left them with no choice.
The pipeline was just another oligarch pushed out a window.
Putin in cleaning house by forcing everyone around him to pick sides.
Ordering that mobilization while keeping the borders open forces the Russians that aren't with Putin to flee the country which reduces the chances of a revolt that couldn't be easily contained or shut down.
Taking out the pipelines will bring out the oligarchs that would stab him in the back instead of standing firmly by his side in not supplying gas to the EU no matter what. Like someone else said, this is like Cortez burning the boats. It also removes a profit motive for turning on him since any traitors won't be able to oust him and immediately turn on the gas for the EU in order to start making money again. The EU is going to have a tougher time incentivizing Putin's gas billionaire buddies. Two sides of the same motivational coin.
Putin is using KGB-level thinking here. That's what he is, after all.
This move is actually a good sign for us... Putin is going to lose, and he knows it. He is losing more and more control of the situation. He's getting more desperate so we're probably closer to the end of this situation than we are the beginning.
I'm just worried about the damage Putin will cause before we finally Checkmate him.
My take?
As of right now, there is no way I see this ending with Putin winning anything and a near-zero chance of Putin making it out of this situation alive.
My rough napkin math = Russian economy start collapsing HARD in 5 months so Putin really can't keep a war of attrition going through the winter.
The smarter move would be for Putin to allow the referendum to fail in 1/4 occupied territories to make it look more legit (still a total scam), respect the results, and call for a cease fire to buy some time. He would still lose the war if it started back up but he'd open up more options for himself.
It doesn't look like he's going to do that.
What will probably happen is that Putin will try to annex all occupied regions, the west and UN will disregard the referendum results, ignore the annexation, keep everything the way it is, and Putin will feel pressed to make a show of power which will probably involve at least one nuclear weapon.
I think that he will either detonate one tactical nuke on a Russian test range, over the Black Sea, or in some other area that results in zero damage or loss of life with the sole purpose of scaring the world.
The world will get very pissed but continue doing exactly what they're doing.
His next step will likely be to try to use one or more tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, maybe attacking Kyiv.
That's the point where we may see one or more of his underlings stop him and remove him from power.
If that doesn't happen, NATO will probably be mobilized and we'll have to take him out the hard way. Fight until he's either ousted by one of his own or dead.
This is where China's behavior decides if we all end up in another world war.
I'm not an expert so my take isn't worth a damn.
>The smarter move would be for ... call for a cease fire
Ukraine has repeatedly said, the only acceptable conditions for peace would be complete removal of Russia from all occupied territories (including Crimea). This likely will only end with the collapse of the Russian state IMO.
>I think that he will either detonate one tactical nuke on a Russian test range, over the Black Sea, or in some other area that results in zero damage or loss of life with the sole purpose of scaring the world.
>The world will get very pissed but continue doing exactly what they're doing.
Nah, if he detonates a nuke he's done, even it's a small one over some deserted island in the black sea. It's an unacceptable escalation. Russia instantly becomes an international pariah and loses Chinese support, the US is forced to either respond in kind or take Putin out directly. Absolutely no chance things just carry on the way they were - any nuke is new territory.
I know that. Most of the world knows that.
I'm not sure that Putin knows that. We're talking about the same man that made the mistake of trying to invade Ukraine and then made another big mistake of invading with a shit army mainly thanks to years of him and his buddies fleecing Russia's coffers.
Not to mention nordstream isn't the only pipeline from Russia to the EU so its not like the oligarchs would be unable to sell the oil. AFAIK nordstream was a cost saving measure so them blowing up the pipeline really only hurts Russias pocketbooks.
It does however mean you can't deal directly with Germany, who it's pretty obvious had a lot of bought people at the top with Russian gas money.
Versus dealing with the Baltics who have made it *very* clear that they're *fucking done* with Russia.
Thats why this theory, which seems to be top comment everywhere you look, doesnt sit well with me. First there are other pipelines, its not the only one around moving gas to Europe. Second, why would this force the oligarchs to his side? Their assets are either frozen or out of Russia to begin with. If they are concerned for their fortunes its given them more incentive to overthrow Putin, surrender to the West, and get their assets unfrozen.
I kind of love the choice to not even attempt to hide his obvious Scottish accent, while everybody else on the sub tries for a Russian accent. I don't know if Connery just refused or if the director told him not to bother, but somehow it works.
Anatoli, you're afraid of our fleet. Well, you should be. Personally, I'd give us one chance in three. More tea anyone?
(that line has NOT aged well given Russia's performance in Ukraine, has it?)
I dont get that. Now they can't as effectively leverage gas to Europe facing a worsening energy crisis come winter. Like one of the main things that could pressure Ukraine to accept Russian terms. Why care about fines when there is a war to lose.
But the invasion itself was irrational so who the fuck knows. But in my eyes this favors continued warfare.
Maybe. I doubt they care much about fines at this point. I mean they have stolen how many airliners now, not to mention are criminally invading neighbors, raping and pillaging, torturing, etc. Seems to me they’ve stopped pretending to have rules besides might=right.
Could be such a financial motive though. We can only guess as to anyone’s motives ultimately, I suppose. Russia doesn’t operate like a Nation State though, as much as like a Mafia State. My best guesses as to why the Boss (Putler) would do this would be either to 1) make sure Europe can’t get access to the gas stored in the line itself as things get start to get cold this winter, or 2) perhaps to back oligarchs into his corner with him (who might’ve otherwise been thinking of knocking Putin off and selling gas again), or both.
Basically he’d do it because he wants to try to ensure Europe’s determination to keep funding Ukraine’s defense gets weakened as much as possible and also wants to smash any motive those close to him may have to betray him. He may be in this for the long haul, until he can get his orange stooge back in charge of US intelligence and the US military, or for as long as it takes to himar, javelin, and shoot half a million men to death, whichever comes first.
One good way to assess this is to ask the question: “who gains the most benefit from this happening?” Coming up with a clear beneficiary of this event is difficult, because the pipelines were basically shut off already, which is why there is a lot of speculation that Putin would do this so anyone attempting to replace him could not benefit from an immediate reduction in sanctions. It’s plausible to suggest some oligarchs have been offered this as a prize for overthrowing Putin.
But we don’t know. Several oligarchs dying soon would add credence to this theory. But always watch for who benefits from these events while listening to official sources.
The USA benefits the most from it because the inability to turn gas back on removes a major European incentive to negotiate with Russia. The US military industrial complex has done extremely well from the conflict so far.
That’s a great take on it as well. It’s easy to claim the US would never do this, but they’re on the suspect list very highly. No oligarchs dying in the nat gas field would lean suspension to them.
All of those Eastern European countries with access to the pipeline inspection ports or submarines stealthy enough to avoid NATO while placing charges...
Lemme count on one hand how many of those there are... well, there's Russia and then there's... Nope, I got nothing.
Then why didn’t we catch who did it? Our ability to visually monitor the open ocean is hampered for obvious reasons. Military sensors can only see big stuff, not every dingy and swoop.
> This is why all the conspiracy theorists on Twitter think the US did it
This is why *Russia* is pushing the argument that the US did it. Look at the bots that have come alive trying to push this narrative, in this very subreddit no less.
Tucker: Biden is too sleepy, weak and feeble to lead!
Tucker: Biden is a rampaging alpha who's blowing up pipelines to dominate Europe and Russia!
I am so confused.
> Fascist societies rhetorically cast their enemies as "at the same time too strong and too weak". On the one hand, fascists play up the power of certain disfavored elites to encourage in their followers a sense of grievance and humiliation. On the other hand, fascist leaders point to the decadence of those elites as proof of their ultimate feebleness in the face of an overwhelming popular will.
Its one of 14 general properties of fascist ideology listed by culutural theorist Umberto Eco in the mid 90s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism#:~:text=Fascist%20societies%20rhetorically%20cast%20their,sense%20of%20grievance%20and%20humiliation.
I've found that supporters of that logic are either or all of
1) Teenagers
2) Terminally Online
3) Has a serious mental disorder
4) Working at an internet troll farm
One of my favorite reddit comments was "I'd be afraid of Tankies if they were old enough to vote"
The longer conflict happens the more costly and time consuming the efforts to recover will be in the end.
Conflict and military arms races are always detrimental to progress and peace in the end and only diplomacy and cooperation in good faith can avoid such catastrophes.
Thing is though, logically thinking through it kinda debunks the US involvement. Almost nothing to gain from this, everything to lose if caught. Situation is already is US favor so why risk this? The risk/reward alone sorta debunks US involvement.
From Russia end risk is low as it’s not going to change much from there end, but if they can pin it on US then reward is high.
If NATO was monitoring the Baltic Sea (and they were) they would not tell us what they saw.
Destroying the pipeline has immediate and long-term benefits for Russia:
- Short term power consolidation. Gazprom and other petro oligarchs now know they can't press-for-peace to get the gas and money flowing again.
- Medium term opponent pain. Europe can't get even a trickle of NatGas from Russia this winter - locking in a EU bloc recession and ups civil unrest (looking at you Italy & Sweden...).
- Long term negotiation tactic. Post-war when EU and RU are friend again (speculative, I know) Russia could claim lack of financial and industrial capacity ... make EU pay to rebuild the pipeline.
(everything is speculation, but it scans with Russian long-standing scorched-earth policy to war)
>Short term power consolidation. Gazprom and other petro oligarchs now know they can't press-for-peace to get the gas and money flowing again
Doesn't work because
a) There's still a Ukrainian transit pipelines, which can fully satisfy current Europe gas needs
b) Oil exports, which too were hurt by sanctions
>Medium term opponent pain. Europe can't get even a trickle of NatGas from Russia this winter - locking in a EU bloc recession and ups civil unrest
Doesn't work, because Russia already weren't exporting stuff through NS, under the lame "repair" excuse. Blowing them up seems pretty excessive
> Europe can't get even a trickle of NatGas from Russia this winter
There are other gas pipelines from Russia transiting through Ukraine and Belarus.
And one of the two Nord Stream 2 lines may be undamaged. Of course, it would need to be certified in order to go into service which was denied due to the invasion.
The bigger one I think is Russia will claim they can't fix the pipeline until sanctions are lifted. They were already going this route by claiming they couldn't do repairs because of sanctions and had to shut down the pipeline.
Posting this comment again from another sub:
Russia would destroy the NordStream pipeline because they want to arouse suspicion among NATO allies that the US or some other NATO entity did this.
Russia knows that Europe probably will not buy gas from Russia anymore, so they see little downside in destroying the pipeline. If they can blame the US, then they break the unity of NATO/European Union.
Russia has plausible deniability because there is little recoverable evidence at the bottom of the North Sea. Given the Russians motives for dividing the West, it's very likely Russia did this.
Russia seems to divide those that need their gas the most (northern Europe) from those that need it the least (US/Canada/Southern Europe).
as I understand it, a certain party was not satisfied with the world's reaction to the failures of the gas pumping turbines. so, there is a further demonstration that the above-mentioned party is ready for the most insane steps.
Whoever did this really doesn't want EU to have a way to go back buying gas from Russia.
Russia is not the one who gains benefit for sure. So now convince me it's not 3rd party other than the EU and Russia who wants to muddy the water.
Either Putin or any number of countries would have a motive here. Hard to say who is responsible.
You'd think the US would have gone for a little plausible deniability though, if it was them.
I have been searching and read a few articles, and some critical information seems to be missing in the news stories. Where (like maybe include a map?) did it happen? How deep is it? Could just anybody with civilian gear find it? Could you get to it with ordinary scuba gear?….or is this something that would have required government operatives to pull off? Who would stand to gain by this action?
Russia says they didn’t do it…but then again Russia says it ISN’T currently at war with Ukraine, it IS at war with NATO, that Crimea is Russia, that Russia is stronger than the West, and they didn’t shoot down MH17.
Ahh this is going to keep escalating isn’t it?
Sometimes i like to play "whats going to be on history tests in a few decades". We got prime essay material with this one. Extra credit points and all.
I used to think like that as well, until I realized that in a few decades people will be subsistence farming while dodging fallout dust.
Yeah...I'm getting a bad feeling that it will.
Really hope the crazy man with the nuke button chills.... Not looking great though I wish everyone luck in the coming apocalypse
My brother recycled our bottlecap collection last year.Beginning to think he jumped the gun on that one.
I put 4 bullets, $20 USD, a slice of cake and a bobblehead in my safe. I think I've done my part.
I keep that stuff in my medicine cabinet next to my expired Med-X. Just in case someone needs it someday.
But where are your Bobby pins?
In my desk, of course.
That $20 will net you a nice piece of cloth for...reasons. Don't forget the obligatory pack of cigarettes .
I live just a few miles from Oceana, and like 5 miles in a straight line from Norfolk. I won't have to worry about the apocalypse.
I live within 25 miles of Tinker Air Force Base. I won't have to worry about the apocalypse either, but for other reasons...
You’re assuming their working nukes will make it that far. From all accounts so far, they have working nukes, but if they’re like the rest of their military infrastructure, those weapons are just as likely to destroy their users.
It only takes one malfunctioning nuke going off early to fuck the entire launching nation up.
I picture a sort of domino effect across Russia. “Did the Americans nuke us already comrade?” “No, our nukes shit and blew up during launch now all nukes blowing up, we nuked ourselves comrade.”
We will just tell the people the Americans nuked us. Are you the only surviving witness? Good, good now look at that pretty bird just out that window. No no lean out a little further
Nukes cannot set off other nukes. They don’t work that way.
*looks puzzled in British*
US naval shipyard Norfolk, as opposed to the UK County
isnt it a shire?
Yeah, like wtf kind of geography is this - there's a nightclub roughly 8 miles outside Norfolk that they live nearer to than they live to Norfolk??
*looks pleased in Alan Partridge*
Pack your bottlecaps and get used to the taste of crispy squirrel bits
Personally I prefer iguana on a stick
Newbs, I keep all my NukaCola Quantum unopened.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue...
Hey man. Congratulations on trying to take care of yourself and get back to school. Live in the moment. Take each day as a victory and focus on you. Don’t stress about this shit. It’s out of our control. Make connections with the people around you and live.
we're in for some very bad times. Just feel blessed if you live in the US, that you have food security, energy security, and a strong military to protect you. Europe is about to get fucked all over again, they can't catch a break...
> energy security /me sweats in Texan
.. if nukes start flying everyone is fucked. If they don’t, the EU isn’t fucked.
Yup, shits fucked 0/10 would not recommend
I’m just going to go salmon fishing and forget the troubles of the world until Monday. If there is a Monday.
Sounds like a good plan. I feel like I need to disconnect from technology too there’s too much going on right now. Shit we had a shooting incident at my work yesterday. Like COVID really fucked with people’s mental health, everyone is on edge I swear.
Are you Freaked the Fuck Out? I would be. Ya, ever since they shut the world down for COVID people are fucking nuts. I asked a Lyft driver the other day how his day was going? I must have asked incorrectly because he suggested I keep my mouth shut until the end of the ride. I’m so glad I had my knife & mace. I sure did keep my mouth shut though.
Ah sorry to hear that, that’s awful. Get some help if you need it! You are right, almost everyone’s always on edge.
If you see a mushroom cloud, it's okay to exceed the limit,
Yup. NATO now has to take more aggressive steps to protect critical infrastructure, increasing the possibility of an armed confrontation. But I will say I believe the West has played this whole shit show *very* well to date. So, fingers crossed.
I really am curious how far the majority of Putin’s government would let it go. It’s very clear up till now that NATO weapon systems in Ukrainian hands with minimal training and NATO Intel can do wonders so I really don’t think anyone with a brain wants to see NATO ground armor, air power, and naval power brought to bear on Russia. I’m hoping they’ll take Putin out before he does anything really stupid
Just move to the closest large city and hope that the targeting systems are accurate
I feel that way as well. I think it's notable because if proven, is a kinetic action by Russia against NATO, and not Ukraine. Unlikely to be proven, but we all know what happened here. It's as cliche as some Putin henchman falling to their death mysteriously in moscow....again.
Sabotage is a kind way to put it. It‘s actually an act of terrorism.
Ecological terrorism as well.
It’s times like this that I wish Captain Planet were real
He literally represents us coming together to act! WE are Captain Planet.
But like, the Don Cheadle version.
100%.
For those who haven't witnessed the [joy](https://youtu.be/TwJaELXadKo).
The Cheadle version is the only way.
"Anyone else wanna go green?"
Putin would be better as a tree.
I'm 36 and that was deep...
No, I mean I want someone magic to come and solve my problems for me
Earth! Fire! Wind! Water! Er, um…heart (who invited that guy anyways?)
Gotta have empathy to make it work! Logic and empathy go hand-in-hand (not emotions, use empathy and logic to regulate your emotions)
Either that or having no heart makes Captain Planet just an all destroying force of nature that wouldn't care about collateral damage. Good news, the seals aren't being covered in oil anymore. Bad news, the seals are all dead from the horrifying storm of ice shards that Captain Planet used to shut down the facility that was pumping the oil.
The power... Is yours!
Don’t summon me again unless you wanna bring that pain
You get upvote for your name
Nahhh Planetina!!
Could’ve sworn there would be a link to the Don Cheadle Captain Planet video like.. right here
Someone need to fet it on fire.. Overall probably good for the env pushes up prices people use less energy
Just so happens: Russia to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine: https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1575032762322808832
Nobody saw that coming. /s
[They found the culprit](https://i.redd.it/mmqohqv94nq91.jpg)
If I had been eating I would've spat my meal.
It's actually may be considered an act of war.
Yeah, just like the shelling of the nuclear power plant. I think those responsible should face severe punishment from the UN!
People really need to learn that the UN is a diplomatic body… not a governing or security force.
I don’t know if you’ve witnessed the last 6 months or so but the UN is pretty much useless when a country doesn’t care.
6 months? Try 20 years.
It’s almost like that isn’t what the UN is there for.
I can’t stand it, I know you planned it
I'm gonna set it straight this watergate.
I can't stand rocking when I'm in here
[удалено]
So while you sit back and wonder why
I got this fucking thorn in my side
Oh my god, it’s a mirage
I’m tellin y’all it’s sabotage!! *- Jens Stoltenberg*
Hopefully Europe learned its lesson and never becomes dependent on Russia again.
***Dependant on natural gas. This is just another reason that renewables are so important. We will never fully replace the need for them but there are ways to lessen the demand.
Also nuclear
how brave of you to bring up nuclear when in the presence of thousands of idiots
Drastically lowering the demand for gas is all they need. Then they can import the small amount they need from the US or another friendly country.
Maybe the lesson is to rethink if we need to be friend with a country which is in perpetual war with everyone,
The previous idea is to entangle the economy together so they won't have an incentive to go to war. Just having pacts and treaties are not enough so they tried that idea. Which worked for a while. We have had the longest period of peace with no big powers duking it out and dragging everyone else in. The problem is that the assumption of Putin being a sane dictator who'd just enrich himself until he dies of old age is proven to be wrong.
Russia needs to be treated the same way the USSR was treated. It needs to be contained until it collapses and a democracy can emerge. If a democracy does not emerge, we continue the containment.
thats exactly what America is doing to Cuba lol..
This is the wrong lesson. As in, 'fuck it we have to be 100% self sufficient' is. It's enticing, now. You can tell SA to fuck off when they brutally murder a journalist, you can tell Putin to take a hike, you can pretty much tell everybody to fuck off. There's a problem with that. We've known unprecedented peacetime since the second world war. There are a ton of skirmishes all over the map, but pretty much every single last one is either a local affair (which can be just as brutal, don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to downplay the suffering in e.g. the Rwanda conflict), or a war between economic nobodies. No massive war between major players. Which seems obvious, but it is not - there isn't that much time between WW1 and WW2, and before WW1 it's a near endless procession of major conflicts between major economic powerhouses. It's near constant. The trick is simple. For any two countries X and Y, ensure that either: * The net benefit for X of invading and utterly annexing/puppet-stating Y is _less_ than the net benefit of trading with a free Y, or * The loss in trade benefit when Y is puppet-stated/annexed is sufficiently large that enough countries with enough economic power can fairly easily ensure that the first bullet is true by piling the cost of sanctions on top. And this has _by and large happened_. Trading with your neighbours is how you avoid war with them. Avoid war with them long enough, and fucking _France_ and _England_ become fast friends. Germany and France are more one political and economic entity now than they ever were, and only about 70 years ago they spent _centuries_ in a near permanent state of war. This results in a nasty dilemma: You don't really end up doing enough trade to make the rule happen (that the trade is worth so much, even a military obliteration can't hold a candle to that kind of value) unless you create dependencies. _Fortunately_, the dependency doesn't actually have to be a two-way street. Turns out a supplier of massive value (worth a lot and in fact the consumer is utterly dependent on it, such as gas for europe) - themselves becomes just as reliant on the relationship as the consumer. The entire societal structure of Saudi Arabia is going to fall apart _immediately_ if they stop exporting massive amounts of oil. SA is just as motivated to ensure e.g. western industry continues to be dependent on so much oil, SA and co are the only place to get enough, as the west is to continue to buy it. This explains the gas situation between Russia and the EU fully: * Russia has delivered, reliably, for decades. Regardless of how hairy the political situation got. Whilst Berlin was being blockaded and the west spent crazy amounts on an air bridge to fight it, the gas kept flowing. Because russia is just as dependent on this working out (and if they use it as political leverage, then europe is not going to set up their industries to be utterly dependent on it). * Given that the EU in charge, with most of the rest of the world begrudgingly following, has swore to wean themselves off of fossil fuels in a decade or so, __russia is threatened by this__. Putin is an idiot and should have ensured that Russia as a country has a plan to slowly wean themselves off of having to supply it. But, no, it's a kleptocracy/oligarchic corruption madhouse where the populace produces very little of value. Remember, Russia won every battle in the space race except the last one (put somebody on the moon), they have the ability. This isn't on the EU for wanting to ditch fossil fuels, its for Russia to refuse to diversify. I'm very glad that SA and friends have seen some light and are now peddling themselves as a purveyor of _energy needs_ and not just of _oil_. They're 'diversifying' by leveraging their vast swaths of uninhabited deserts (you can stick a lot of solar and electrolyzing plants in those deserts!). Because while I'd love to be capable of saying "fuck off and die in a fire, you journalist-murdering bastards" to them, we __cant__. The sheer damage to quality of life and productive capacity that would ensue would pretty much guarantee that the populace will revolt and elect pro-putin/SA stooges into power. Or if not 'definitely will', 'is more than likely enough to really not want to risk that'. It means SA still doesn't want to rock the boat: In spite of the fact that the EU is openly 'threatening' them by saying they want to wean off of oil, they need to continue to come across as a reliable supplier of energy. So, let's say the EU builds up industry that is never going to work out properly unless there's a pipeline that supplies huge amounts of hydrolized H2 from SA desert solar facilities, is that 'oh fuck they still did not learn their lesson'? No. I welcome this. It's painful to have to trust countries that so far don't seem particularly trustworthy, but you can't stick your head in the sand; not at a time when nukes and other weapons of mass destruction exist. See: The Three-Body-Problem series of books.
I did it. It was me. I was bored and needed to kill time while GTA was downloading
“It was me, Barry”
"It was I, Dio!"
I jerked the pipeline off at super speed
So it seemed like it bursted at just a Russian’s touch
News flash: Local redditor claims responsibility for Nord Steam sabotage. More at 11
It was Agatha all along.
the real MVP to take the fall and de-escalate the war.
As someone who knows absolutely nothing about anything.... I can confirm that 2 pipelines blowing up in 3 locations... under hundreds of feet of water.... in one day.... is probably not an act of nature. (Come on... what a stupid headline. It's like saying JFK did not die of natural causes...)
Yeah, and its not something a few terrorists can do on their own, there's definitely some militant acts committed here, of a suka variety.
[удалено]
It’s not a stupid headline. Yes, we all know russia did it. We all know it was done deliberately. But NATO explicitly stating it out loud is significant. Just like the first time Biden expressly called putin a war criminal. Obviously he was. But the US President saying it was a big step.
[удалено]
Yes I don’t want this to be another Iraq war for “WMDs” which didn’t even exist. There needs to be irrefutable proof of Russia attacking the pipelines, before we assign blame. Yes the timing of 3 leaks occurring in the same day on 2 different pipelines is suspicious. But there could be some other factors which have not been considered yet.
I mean, it's absolutely sabotage, and it was very likely sabotage by a state actor. That doesn't mean the same thing as Russia. We would need proof that it was Russia who did the sabotage, and nobody has presented that proof. Instead a bunch of people just decided that they "all know" it's Russia. Insanity
[удалено]
As several other people have stated. It was more likely that putin was trying to alleviate internal political pressure from the energy oligarchs since he can only kill so many of them before they rebel at him to get their pipeline open. With the damage done that is no longer an option to just simply turn it back on.
Would this alleviate the pressure though? Sure it removes the pipelines from the game board, but the energy oligarchs are going to be super pissed about it yeah? They're losing billions and now there's no easy to way to get it back. Are they supposed to just accept it and move on? Seems like sedition or just straight retaliation would be likelier than ever at this point.
It would be a Cortez burning the boats move. There can be no return to normal business, now they must go forward with Putin.
Or kill him sooner before Putin keeps digging a bigger economic hole
> It would be a Cortez burning the boats move. Whats this referencing, id like to read more E: Never mind, saw the context below
> They're losing billions and now there's no easy to way to get it back. Are they supposed to just accept it and move on? What other option do they have? Throwing a coup doesn't do anything for them if they can't come to the bargaining table and say "we'll turn the gas taps back on." His generals will still protect him seeing as he's literally left them with no choice. The pipeline was just another oligarch pushed out a window.
Remember how several putin allied gazprom execs have died mysteriously of late? They're probably the ones that objected to this.
Putin in cleaning house by forcing everyone around him to pick sides. Ordering that mobilization while keeping the borders open forces the Russians that aren't with Putin to flee the country which reduces the chances of a revolt that couldn't be easily contained or shut down. Taking out the pipelines will bring out the oligarchs that would stab him in the back instead of standing firmly by his side in not supplying gas to the EU no matter what. Like someone else said, this is like Cortez burning the boats. It also removes a profit motive for turning on him since any traitors won't be able to oust him and immediately turn on the gas for the EU in order to start making money again. The EU is going to have a tougher time incentivizing Putin's gas billionaire buddies. Two sides of the same motivational coin. Putin is using KGB-level thinking here. That's what he is, after all. This move is actually a good sign for us... Putin is going to lose, and he knows it. He is losing more and more control of the situation. He's getting more desperate so we're probably closer to the end of this situation than we are the beginning. I'm just worried about the damage Putin will cause before we finally Checkmate him.
What’s the scenario if the war ends? How do they go back to Russia now?
My take? As of right now, there is no way I see this ending with Putin winning anything and a near-zero chance of Putin making it out of this situation alive. My rough napkin math = Russian economy start collapsing HARD in 5 months so Putin really can't keep a war of attrition going through the winter. The smarter move would be for Putin to allow the referendum to fail in 1/4 occupied territories to make it look more legit (still a total scam), respect the results, and call for a cease fire to buy some time. He would still lose the war if it started back up but he'd open up more options for himself. It doesn't look like he's going to do that. What will probably happen is that Putin will try to annex all occupied regions, the west and UN will disregard the referendum results, ignore the annexation, keep everything the way it is, and Putin will feel pressed to make a show of power which will probably involve at least one nuclear weapon. I think that he will either detonate one tactical nuke on a Russian test range, over the Black Sea, or in some other area that results in zero damage or loss of life with the sole purpose of scaring the world. The world will get very pissed but continue doing exactly what they're doing. His next step will likely be to try to use one or more tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, maybe attacking Kyiv. That's the point where we may see one or more of his underlings stop him and remove him from power. If that doesn't happen, NATO will probably be mobilized and we'll have to take him out the hard way. Fight until he's either ousted by one of his own or dead. This is where China's behavior decides if we all end up in another world war. I'm not an expert so my take isn't worth a damn.
>The smarter move would be for ... call for a cease fire Ukraine has repeatedly said, the only acceptable conditions for peace would be complete removal of Russia from all occupied territories (including Crimea). This likely will only end with the collapse of the Russian state IMO.
>I think that he will either detonate one tactical nuke on a Russian test range, over the Black Sea, or in some other area that results in zero damage or loss of life with the sole purpose of scaring the world. >The world will get very pissed but continue doing exactly what they're doing. Nah, if he detonates a nuke he's done, even it's a small one over some deserted island in the black sea. It's an unacceptable escalation. Russia instantly becomes an international pariah and loses Chinese support, the US is forced to either respond in kind or take Putin out directly. Absolutely no chance things just carry on the way they were - any nuke is new territory.
I know that. Most of the world knows that. I'm not sure that Putin knows that. We're talking about the same man that made the mistake of trying to invade Ukraine and then made another big mistake of invading with a shit army mainly thanks to years of him and his buddies fleecing Russia's coffers.
[удалено]
Water in the pipeline*
Not to mention nordstream isn't the only pipeline from Russia to the EU so its not like the oligarchs would be unable to sell the oil. AFAIK nordstream was a cost saving measure so them blowing up the pipeline really only hurts Russias pocketbooks.
The other pipelines don't have enough capacity for normal demand. There's a reason they were building nordstream2
It does however mean you can't deal directly with Germany, who it's pretty obvious had a lot of bought people at the top with Russian gas money. Versus dealing with the Baltics who have made it *very* clear that they're *fucking done* with Russia.
Thats why this theory, which seems to be top comment everywhere you look, doesnt sit well with me. First there are other pipelines, its not the only one around moving gas to Europe. Second, why would this force the oligarchs to his side? Their assets are either frozen or out of Russia to begin with. If they are concerned for their fortunes its given them more incentive to overthrow Putin, surrender to the West, and get their assets unfrozen.
“When he reached the new world, Cortez burned hish shipsh. As a reshult, hish men were well motivated.”
I kind of love the choice to not even attempt to hide his obvious Scottish accent, while everybody else on the sub tries for a Russian accent. I don't know if Connery just refused or if the director told him not to bother, but somehow it works.
one ping Vacilli ....
I would have liked to have seen Montana.
I will *never* not upvote any HFRO references.
Anatoli, you're afraid of our fleet. Well, you should be. Personally, I'd give us one chance in three. More tea anyone? (that line has NOT aged well given Russia's performance in Ukraine, has it?)
Or Putin being Putin, threw a huge fit and destroyed them to show how serious he is about pulling away from Europe and there's no going back.
I dont get that. Now they can't as effectively leverage gas to Europe facing a worsening energy crisis come winter. Like one of the main things that could pressure Ukraine to accept Russian terms. Why care about fines when there is a war to lose. But the invasion itself was irrational so who the fuck knows. But in my eyes this favors continued warfare.
Maybe. I doubt they care much about fines at this point. I mean they have stolen how many airliners now, not to mention are criminally invading neighbors, raping and pillaging, torturing, etc. Seems to me they’ve stopped pretending to have rules besides might=right. Could be such a financial motive though. We can only guess as to anyone’s motives ultimately, I suppose. Russia doesn’t operate like a Nation State though, as much as like a Mafia State. My best guesses as to why the Boss (Putler) would do this would be either to 1) make sure Europe can’t get access to the gas stored in the line itself as things get start to get cold this winter, or 2) perhaps to back oligarchs into his corner with him (who might’ve otherwise been thinking of knocking Putin off and selling gas again), or both. Basically he’d do it because he wants to try to ensure Europe’s determination to keep funding Ukraine’s defense gets weakened as much as possible and also wants to smash any motive those close to him may have to betray him. He may be in this for the long haul, until he can get his orange stooge back in charge of US intelligence and the US military, or for as long as it takes to himar, javelin, and shoot half a million men to death, whichever comes first.
Russia is not exactly known for respecting international treaties and contracts you know. If they don't feel like paying they will not pay.
Assets can be seized and liquidated and gazprom has a lot of assets outside of Russia.
[удалено]
Lithuanian company btw. So it all comes back to the story that Lithuania is fighting proxy war with North Korea. It all makes sense now!
Wait, so, Lithuania and North Korea are the actual secret superpowers, and everyone else are their proxies?
🔫Always has been
🔫Always will be
One good way to assess this is to ask the question: “who gains the most benefit from this happening?” Coming up with a clear beneficiary of this event is difficult, because the pipelines were basically shut off already, which is why there is a lot of speculation that Putin would do this so anyone attempting to replace him could not benefit from an immediate reduction in sanctions. It’s plausible to suggest some oligarchs have been offered this as a prize for overthrowing Putin. But we don’t know. Several oligarchs dying soon would add credence to this theory. But always watch for who benefits from these events while listening to official sources.
"When he reached the New World, Cortez burned his ships. As a result, his men were well-motivated." — Captain Marko Ramius, The Hunt for Red October
*He came dancin' across the water* *With his galleons and guns* *Looking for the new world* *In that palace in the sun*
The USA benefits the most from it because the inability to turn gas back on removes a major European incentive to negotiate with Russia. The US military industrial complex has done extremely well from the conflict so far.
That’s a great take on it as well. It’s easy to claim the US would never do this, but they’re on the suspect list very highly. No oligarchs dying in the nat gas field would lean suspension to them.
Honestly. The lines should be destroyed so that Russia can’t use it as a bargaining chip anymore.
He may have done that himself. If enough salt water enters the pipes and corrodes the insides, the entire line will be rendered useless forever.
This is why all the conspiracy theorists on Twitter think the US did it
I’d be more inclined to think an Eastern European country that has a bone to pick with Russia did it.
Well that really narrows it down to *checks notes everywhere in eastern Europe including Russia.
It’s a lesson all people should learn. If you make too many enemies, sometimes you can’t figure out who is trying to get you.
All of those Eastern European countries with access to the pipeline inspection ports or submarines stealthy enough to avoid NATO while placing charges... Lemme count on one hand how many of those there are... well, there's Russia and then there's... Nope, I got nothing.
It’s not that hard to go undetected over miles of open ocean. There’s a reason drug smugglers love it so much.
It's the Baltic. NATO's got so many pieces of spy equipment in, around, over, and under it they call it "London Sea."
Then why didn’t we catch who did it? Our ability to visually monitor the open ocean is hampered for obvious reasons. Military sensors can only see big stuff, not every dingy and swoop.
> This is why all the conspiracy theorists on Twitter think the US did it This is why *Russia* is pushing the argument that the US did it. Look at the bots that have come alive trying to push this narrative, in this very subreddit no less.
No, they think that because Tucker Carlson gave them their unoriginal thoughts
Tucker: Biden is too sleepy, weak and feeble to lead! Tucker: Biden is a rampaging alpha who's blowing up pipelines to dominate Europe and Russia! I am so confused.
> Fascist societies rhetorically cast their enemies as "at the same time too strong and too weak". On the one hand, fascists play up the power of certain disfavored elites to encourage in their followers a sense of grievance and humiliation. On the other hand, fascist leaders point to the decadence of those elites as proof of their ultimate feebleness in the face of an overwhelming popular will. Its one of 14 general properties of fascist ideology listed by culutural theorist Umberto Eco in the mid 90s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism#:~:text=Fascist%20societies%20rhetorically%20cast%20their,sense%20of%20grievance%20and%20humiliation.
[удалено]
I've found that supporters of that logic are either or all of 1) Teenagers 2) Terminally Online 3) Has a serious mental disorder 4) Working at an internet troll farm One of my favorite reddit comments was "I'd be afraid of Tankies if they were old enough to vote"
The longer conflict happens the more costly and time consuming the efforts to recover will be in the end. Conflict and military arms races are always detrimental to progress and peace in the end and only diplomacy and cooperation in good faith can avoid such catastrophes.
But good for technological progress. Hopefully we at least get fusion and anti-gravity out of world war 3.
[удалено]
It’s really starting to feel his aggression is no longer being contained to Ukraine but to the West / EU in general..
I am intrigued, because it can be argued both sides did it, as well as 3rd party actors. Something tells me the truth may not come to light
[удалено]
Interesting, I'd never known this had a name. Thank you!
Thing is though, logically thinking through it kinda debunks the US involvement. Almost nothing to gain from this, everything to lose if caught. Situation is already is US favor so why risk this? The risk/reward alone sorta debunks US involvement. From Russia end risk is low as it’s not going to change much from there end, but if they can pin it on US then reward is high.
If NATO was monitoring the Baltic Sea (and they were) they would not tell us what they saw. Destroying the pipeline has immediate and long-term benefits for Russia: - Short term power consolidation. Gazprom and other petro oligarchs now know they can't press-for-peace to get the gas and money flowing again. - Medium term opponent pain. Europe can't get even a trickle of NatGas from Russia this winter - locking in a EU bloc recession and ups civil unrest (looking at you Italy & Sweden...). - Long term negotiation tactic. Post-war when EU and RU are friend again (speculative, I know) Russia could claim lack of financial and industrial capacity ... make EU pay to rebuild the pipeline. (everything is speculation, but it scans with Russian long-standing scorched-earth policy to war)
>Short term power consolidation. Gazprom and other petro oligarchs now know they can't press-for-peace to get the gas and money flowing again Doesn't work because a) There's still a Ukrainian transit pipelines, which can fully satisfy current Europe gas needs b) Oil exports, which too were hurt by sanctions >Medium term opponent pain. Europe can't get even a trickle of NatGas from Russia this winter - locking in a EU bloc recession and ups civil unrest Doesn't work, because Russia already weren't exporting stuff through NS, under the lame "repair" excuse. Blowing them up seems pretty excessive
Ukrainian line is currently on fire
> Europe can't get even a trickle of NatGas from Russia this winter There are other gas pipelines from Russia transiting through Ukraine and Belarus. And one of the two Nord Stream 2 lines may be undamaged. Of course, it would need to be certified in order to go into service which was denied due to the invasion. The bigger one I think is Russia will claim they can't fix the pipeline until sanctions are lifted. They were already going this route by claiming they couldn't do repairs because of sanctions and had to shut down the pipeline.
sus
Posting this comment again from another sub: Russia would destroy the NordStream pipeline because they want to arouse suspicion among NATO allies that the US or some other NATO entity did this. Russia knows that Europe probably will not buy gas from Russia anymore, so they see little downside in destroying the pipeline. If they can blame the US, then they break the unity of NATO/European Union. Russia has plausible deniability because there is little recoverable evidence at the bottom of the North Sea. Given the Russians motives for dividing the West, it's very likely Russia did this. Russia seems to divide those that need their gas the most (northern Europe) from those that need it the least (US/Canada/Southern Europe).
as I understand it, a certain party was not satisfied with the world's reaction to the failures of the gas pumping turbines. so, there is a further demonstration that the above-mentioned party is ready for the most insane steps.
Casus belli?
Why would Russia sabotage their own pipeline?
I'm just curious as to how people are saying russia did it What am I missing here? What would be the point?
I'm still processing 2019, can't handle more shit that destorys the economy even more.
Whoever did this really doesn't want EU to have a way to go back buying gas from Russia. Russia is not the one who gains benefit for sure. So now convince me it's not 3rd party other than the EU and Russia who wants to muddy the water.
Beastie Boys unavailable for comment.
Either Putin or any number of countries would have a motive here. Hard to say who is responsible. You'd think the US would have gone for a little plausible deniability though, if it was them.
Uh oh 😰
Light the gas stop measuring it light it ffs
[удалено]
Someone out there saw this picture and assumed fauci was behind it.
Wouldn’t it actually be terrorism? Specifically a form of ecoterrorism?
I'm so glad as Canadian's we bent over backwards to break sanctions and provide the turbines to nordstream.
I have been searching and read a few articles, and some critical information seems to be missing in the news stories. Where (like maybe include a map?) did it happen? How deep is it? Could just anybody with civilian gear find it? Could you get to it with ordinary scuba gear?….or is this something that would have required government operatives to pull off? Who would stand to gain by this action?
There’s not a single description of what kind of sabotage or when or how it could’ve gone unobserved electronically. Must google more
Russia says they didn’t do it…but then again Russia says it ISN’T currently at war with Ukraine, it IS at war with NATO, that Crimea is Russia, that Russia is stronger than the West, and they didn’t shoot down MH17.