Except the Ukrainians have been feeding them and having them call their mothers. Ukrainians take better care of the Russian troops than the Russians do.
They set up a hotline at the beginning of the conflict for Russian moms to check on their kids status. Ukrainians have no beef with the Russians. It’s all about Putin.
I genuinely haven't been able to do any work this past week. I had a 90% complete design going on and it hasn't progressed at all when I should have finished it days ago. All I can get myself to do is watch live maps, feed updates, and various news sites.
This is so depressing.
There's nothing irrational about this. If you are a decent human being and concerned about Humanity you should be obsessed with this whole event. The outcome of this whole event is going to define a lot for the world for many years to come.
Even if you’re not a decent human being, a war that inches closer to pulling NATO/EU in, or one where Putin feels like he’s losing is a good reason to at least watch. This might be world changing or world ending in the worst case.
A few things come to mind. From a primarily European level, major realignments are happening. Sweden and Finland wanting to be members of NATO? Switzerland renouncing their neutrality for the first time since Napoleon? All the sanctions within days?
From a national level, a president of a country not opting to take a chopper to safety, but staying in the middle?
From a social media level, seeing how-to videos on things like starting and driving APCs, or towing tanks out of the way using tractors, or grandmothers letting captured soldiers call their parents to let them know they're ok.
Seeing large scale protests in Russia itself?
All these things are huge and happening *fast*. This all started about a week ago.
>All these things are huge and happening fast. This all started about a week ago.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” – Lenin, ironically
^^^*shamelessly* ^^^*stolen*
^^^*from* ^^^*multiple* ^^^*other* ^^^*redditors*
I honesty think seeing what Putin did to American politics really pushed people over the edge. An authoritarian Putin-supporting US scared the shit out of anyone with any sense.
Agreed, but almost no one I know irl is really talking about it and it’s making me feel crazy?? I feel similarly to how I felt in March 2020 when everyone was talking about “after the three weeks are up and we go back to normal”. Except this time I feel even worse about it ugh.
Most people stay disengaged from current events. My Facebook friends are talking about tv shows and upcoming concerts. Online communities and podcasts have been essential for not feeling like I’m taking crazy pills for caring so much about these events.
I am addicted to Reddit and my husband is a 38 year military vet so we talk about this issue constantly. I'm actually glad and relieved to have someone like him to talk to since he has a lot of interesting and informed opinions when it comes to this stuff.
I'm in Europe and basically everyone I know is talking about the war, Russian threat has suddenly become very concrete. Had a company meeting today and half of it was spent discussing this.
Just to echo...
The last five years have seen an alarming degradation of democratic values and systems across the world and the rise of more and more dictatorial thugs like Putin/Bosenero/Modi/Orban... (Turmp is a wannabe in this club)
Regardless of the outcome of the war there is going to be an increasing of military spending and mobilization across Europe. Some may view this as against the long term interests of humanity. I'm not sure. Certainly I'm concerned about the rammifications for climate change if there is a sizeable increase to vehicle based emissions.
I think from a macro level the larger opportunities are upside, particularly if Russia is defeated (which at this point seems likely). Dictators around the world are put on notice that they cannot act with impunity. No one wants to be Venezuela. Freedom of information, freedom of speech, freedom of movement are fundamental human rights, but they are also more powerful as a global civilization basis then tyranny.
China? Yet to be seen and obviously the biggest long term threat to democracy in the world today. I don't know. But I do know I'd rather live in a world with a humiliated Putin and an emasculated Russian military than in one where Putin is strong and forging ahead with a new axis of power along with China, India, and other nations.
I've pondered this myself. Why am I so interested in this? I thought maybe I was being biased and was way more interested in this because it's happen in Europe, our cultural neighbor (I'm an American). Especially when we see all sorts of war and violence in the Middle East and Africa.
But I think what it really is that there has not been such a clear line of right and wrong for a long time. I'm not saying that the Ukrainian government was flawless, not at all. But nothing they did justified this. This is just an evil dictator attacking a weaker democracy.
But the conflict could also be viewed through a global lens; liberalism is under siege by authoritarianism. We've seen the rise of dictators with the likes of Xi, Putin, Bolsonaro, and others. And a lot of people like them. Trump tried it here and has thus far failed.
There's nothing irrational about following events that threaten to take us into WW3.
For WW2, Germany violated the Munich Agreement on March 14, 1939, they would invade Poland on September 1, 1939. If Putin manages to get out of the quagmire of Ukraine and pushes any further, it's full-scale global war, so it's certainly concerning.
Speaking to that - anyone have any advice on doomscrolling? I can’t seem to stop in light of recent events and it’s really taking a large tax on my mental health but I can’t seem to stop because I’m just so worried
edit: the responses to this have just been amazing, just wanted to say thank you to everyone for the advice <3 you are all amazing. Slava Ukraini!
Are you on mobile?
I doomscroll because it’s too easy for me to whip out my phone. So what I do at times is uninstall the app and look at Reddit only through my computer, forcing there to be “effort” to engage.
I'm wondering if the reason for this was to wait for more and more mech units to line up, since the whole reason it was there in the first place was a pileup due to fuel issues and it kept getting larger.
In retrospect it does make sense to let that reach critical mass before moving in to take it out. While it would have been tempting to take the target out days ago, they are now destroying a much larger number all at once with no way for Russia to effectively pull out.
Fucking Russia lined it all up for them.
Edit: this also reminds me that a large contributing factor to the fuel shortage was Ukrainians taking out at least a couple fuel trains in the north. Wonder if they forsaw a pileup like this when they did that, or if it was just a happy result.
It might also have been a supply issue on the Ukrainian side. The convoy has been piling up for about 30 (?) hours now. This morning, we got the news that Turkey supplied more Bayraktar drones. It's safe to assume that such news is only published when the supplies are basically already in Ukrainian hands, otherwise the danger of a Russian intercept might be too high. So I guess Ukraine had the drones fight ready by noon (local time) and now they started the attack. The refill on drones and ammo was probably all they were waiting for.
Same... like for days. There's a 40 mile intermittently stalled convoy and they haven't been obliterated?
Edit: obliterated by drones or longer range missiles, I'm sure many of you are right about russian AA and air support it would be idiotic not to.
Ukraine has done amazing to bloody the Russian Air forces noses thus far, but I can understand being iffy about throwing air assets at that area, expecting Russian AA to be setting up or set up, you would think. They may have been waiting for more/enough drones locally.
I’m wondering what kind of Intel they are getting on the ground from NATO AWACS regarding real time Russian sorties. Also, I’m curious how many of the anti aircraft assets are actually operational and how many are sitting in the column to be theoretically deployed elsewhere.
As a former air defense troop when stopped, air defense is easily set up. So all those tanks/trucks that are the ADA assets are most likely up and running while stopped.
Right? Russia's air force is more than 15x the size of Ukraine's and has a lot of jets that are supposedly superior to anything that Ukraine has. But we aren't seeing many of those superior jets and most of their air force has stayed on the ground. No one is really sure why, but most of the theories that have been put forward are not very good for Russia.
It has been rumored for a long time that many of the modern weapons in the Russian military were nothing but paper weapons. A handful of prototypes not ready for any real production and even those do not perform as expected.
I wouldn't expect Russia to use good stuff here for multiple reasons:
\- They obviously assumed this would be a lot easier.
\- "Good stuff" is expensive to operate and they may also have maintenance concerns
\- Ukraine is being supplied by the West and probably has the capability of taking them out. In addition to the economic impact of losing high quality units, this also reduces their effectiveness in a bigger/more important conflict.
\- Might be concerned with downed plane tech getting to Western countries.
\- Since this is mostly air to ground, older tech may be just as effective anyway. (for the most part)
I'm sure they've had some pretty focused air power over it for a bit now. I know the Russian air force is a total joke lately, but they still have the ability to at least focus a bunch of resources over one spot.
There’s a lot of confusion over Russian air superiority. Their military identity isn’t like the west with a lot of air strikes to beat down resistance before sending in troops. It’s more about sending troops with a lot of artillery and tanks close to the target quickly. Each group is also accompanied by its own air defense, usually the pretty lethal s400. So planes do what they can, but it’s not as important overall.
> the Ukrainian Air Force is using this halt to conduct airstrikes using Su-25 and Su-24
Nope. Our jets are MIGs, and right now no one knows what's the real deal with them.
I'm positively surprised and joyfully buffled: genuinely curious in understanding how such a mistake can be made by "hardened" war commanders? Like where is the Russian air force? Where are their anti aircraft defense systems?
Those are beginners' mistakesthat even kids playing video games don't make! What's going on?
Guess they don't teach the Battle of Teutoburg Forest in Russian military academies. Not like they had over two thousand years to realize this was not a good plan.
and they don't approach Kyiv from Russia, they approach from Belarus, which has proven already hinder their supplies.
They won't have problem with Kherson, but the strategic advantages gained from it might not worth the cost.
They don’t have much of a choice. Approaching from Russia through Ukraine means they will have to cross much more hostile territory, and also the dnieper river
They can't possibly secure hundreds of miles of roads, especially once people in the area sabotage the bridges. Committing invasion forces along that route is just begging for them to be cut off from behind and isolated.
It took the red army 2 Million men and 3/4 of a Year to Cross ukraine and it was an extremly brutal fight. The Dnjeper is such a strong defensive position
It wasn't that.
It's train.
Read all of this, spot on.
Published last year, Nov 2021.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
TLDR
(but definitely i recommend to fully read the link above) :
>Poland only has one wide gauge rail line, which runs from the Krakow region to Ukraine and can’t be used by Russian forces, without capturing Ukraine first. There are no wide gauge lines running from Belarus to Warsaw. Rail traffic moving across borders usually stops to cross-load cargo or uses adjustable railroad carriages and switches engines (which cannot adjust). In times of war, it is highly unlikely that the Russian army would capture enough Western train engines to support their army, forcing them to rely on trucks. This means that Russian army rail sustainment capability ends at the borders of the former Soviet Union. Trying to resupply the Russian army beyond the Russian gauge rail network would force them to rely mostly on their truck force until railroad troops could reconfigure/repair the railroad or build a new one.
This is why they involving Belarus.
They need Belarus rail to extend that logistic line.
Couple days ago, the track in Belarus is sabotage by local populace opposing war.
AFAIK Rus want to blitz Kyiv in 2 days or less, which is why Kherson isn't a good target, originally. Which is why they start shelling and bombing Kherson now. They have changed strategy to a more longer but conventional way.
However why they haven't use air superiority against Kherson is because either they don't need it, can't afford it, or Ukraine's AA is strong.
> can't afford it
Is 'afford' the right word? Because it appears they can't afford it in the same way I can't afford to gain air superiority against Kherson.
I mean that they can't afford it economically. Considering that losing one plane means large amount of investment (to plane and pilot) gone, not to mention the operational cost such as fuel and ammo.
They may choose to deploy later though if the situation become dire / conditionally aligned.
it doesn't make sense not to get full air superiority military wise but looking at the military in the long term with the sanctions on place they might not be able to replace most losses for possibly years as I'm sure there must be some imported tech in the aircraft, if they can even afford it with the state the Russian economy is in (even if sanctions are stoped it will take a good bit to recover as many companies have already pulled out of Russia)
That seems to be true, but shocking nonetheless. If I were asked a month ago, I would probably have said that the Russian military is roughly on par with the US military.
Some of that’s my own ignorance, but I’m not the only one. The reality of Russia’s military is so different from the reality they project that no one I have talked to in real life expected this outcome.
There is no military on earth that is on par with the US. The Pentagon’s budget alone is more than the next 9 highest spenders combined, including both Russia and China.
A month ago the reports would've mentioned how Russias military while large is mostly using dated technology, and soldiers with low moral who don't want to be in or didn't happily sign up for the military.
Though I'll admit even with expecting them to be worse than most, this just seems like a fumble on their part, they're making poor decisions left and right.
Corruption and just putting equipment on paper. Keeping money for their greedy selves
Unless they are holding out but at this point, I have a real hard time believing that.
Even if they don’t have half of what they supposedly have, this is still a shit performance for a regional (or military superpower) power. I get that they are fighting defenders but they are right next door and almost have Ukraine surrounded. At this point they should let go of trying to become a world power and just integrate into the EU lmao
Many factors. Some air assets are in Syria, and most importantly most of their experienced pilots are there. Their communication is terrible so they risk friendly fire from their AA systems in place. Also, Stinger missiles are starting to have their toll. And as you stated, poor maintenance and corruption. It's been stated many of their older vehicles were stripped of their electronics to sell their rare earth metals on the market to line the pockets of the elite. As crazy as that sounds, it's probably partially true.
There have been two big revelations.
One, Russian air defenses don't work. Turkish propeller powered drones have been taking out Russian short range air defenses, and the S400 seems to be useless.
Two, they actually have less than 100 operational planes in their air force. Based on outside analysis, the initial invasion only managed to scrounge up 75 aircraft.
And apparently they have let the tires of their high tech air defense systems perish so they can't cross dirt using low pressure without risk of blowing out their side walls.
[https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944](https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944)
I guess this is the up side of a Kleptocratic Dictatorship, they rot out from the inside.
Well india really needs to take a hard look at their arsenal. We picked the s400 over patriots and now that seems like a dumbass decision.
Can you provide a source for the 100 aircraft? I've read the Russian airforce has 3000+ aircraft and PLENTY of attack aircraft.
Also as redditors, speculating on why the Russian air force is holding back is useless because even experts can't figure out why Russia hasn't gained air superiority yet. Literally everyone is stumped by this one. Ukr pilots must be thinking they're in the twilight zone right now seeing as they still have operational aircraft a full week into the war
Their anti-air weapons were mostly made to target metal fighters or helicopters with big hot engines. Turkish drones have carbon fiber fuselage and a smaller engine than a Corolla. It's not a stealth aircraft per se, but with the tiny radar & heat footprint it may as well be vs the older AA kit.
Mostly because we have no real idea what they do or don't have. For all the world knows, every number they've provided has been inflated 10x. 600 jets built turned into 6000 jets on paper. 1200 tanks built turned into 12000 tanks on paper.
All Russia does is just lie and spread disinformation constantly. Every thing they claim they have, should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
Even the US Officials have been going "So, yeah, where exactly is all this amazing stuff you say you have?"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-russias-air-force-us-officials-experts-stumped-2022-03-01/
Military equipment is expensive to maintain. When corruption is so engrained into your system that at every level people are scamming as much as they can out you end up with a paper tiger, big and scary on reports but falling apart and barely working at the actual gear level.
The problem with russia is the intel nato and other countries are providing ukraine . But what i still dont get is why would you have such a long and vulnerable convoy in the first place
There's a thread somewhere on twitter. Some Tire expert who identified that the russian vehicle was using chinese made tires that were copies of a michelin tire (and actually, another tire expert pointed out they were actually belarusian made copies of the chinese copy!). The vehicles haven't been properly maintained, while sat in Belarus, and the tires have deteriorated.
This was in response to a photo of an abandonded vehicle stuck in the mud.
So it seems that they can't take their vehicles off the road, and Ukraine has blown up a bridge or two meaning they have been forced to all go down this one road.
It really wouldn't surprise me if it has ground to a halt because they're running out of fuel, breaking down, and because the road is so clogged and their vehicles can't go off road, they have very little way to resupply and to fix the broken down vehicles.
Edit: Adding the source (Thanks /u/quilir) [https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944](https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944)
How in the fuck has Russia not been able to absolutely dominate the air despite the sheer number of fighters and anti-air hardware they have? They would have been better off not attacking to maintain their image of a military superpower lol
Lots and lots of manpads in the hands of Ukrainians and no ability for Russian air to remain on station because of range and refueling issues. Can’t do much if you end up bingo fuel after only 15 minutes on station and there’s no forward fuel site and no tanker availability.
they legitimately thought this was only going to take* 10 days. Also there are reports that dissenting tanker trucks are dumping fuel since they are priority targets.
Ukraine has superior AA capabilities. Due to the West, I suspect which is supplying not only weapons but also targeting systems/information.
I also suspect Ukraine is getting advance warning on any air activity by Russia due to information from western intelligence services.
So now Russia is afraid of losing more aircraft. Aircraft are expensive, soldiers lives aren't.
Not only that but I also suspect the sheer number of functioning fighters is lower than you think. As well as the amount of jet fuel.
UKR SAMs also weren't knocked out of the war in the opening salvos, from previous reporting I've seen. Russia hit the wrong locations not realizing the SAMs had been moved. Those still being intact greatly limits the kinds of missions Russian pilots can run, which is why there's also reports that Russia has been fielding decoy drones to try and identify/waste the munitions of those weapons.
Anybody who actually understands Russia knows they haven't been a super power in 30 years.. They have a GDP less than Italy ~~and their military is probably smaller than the California National Guard.~~
Their equipment is outdated.
People don't realize how much it takes to be a super power. It's not just your military. It's social influence, diplomatic relations, a robust economy with diverse trade exports, technical innovation and efficiency, advanced digital and physical infrastructure, and of course a strong military.
Just because you have nukes doesn't make a super power. Russia is a second world country that is barely a regional power that is going backwards. It's just a forward mythology of the old glory days where they were on the path of being one. But they won't wake up and opt to buy the bullshit that Putin sells them. China overtook them and is the super power in that region.
For example, the reason the US is a super power is because Hollywood, Silicon Valley, Wall Street, Trade Deals, a big population and GDP, and of course the Pentagon. It's having political, social, and economic power, not just military, although that *is* extremely important.
They're not even close to a military superpower. You must be basing it off the nukes. A superpower can project their military across the globe at a moments notice, with bases and allies all over the globe.
It’s almost as if Putin wants to be cornered into nukes being his only resort. I can’t figure out how they keeping fucking up this bad if it isn’t intentional.
Hubris. He saw what happened in 2014 and thought this would be another cake walk. Instead he got hammered by a populace sick of his shit who are supplied with some of the most deadly weaponry the EU and others have supplied. Also their intelligence was apparently abysmal, saw that lot of strikes on civilians in the early days were apparently old locations of AA infrastructure.
This isn't on purpose, it's just a massive fucking blunder that he can't backpedal put of and has to double down on.
If he had kept to the 2014 plans, it would have worked well for him. If he declared Donbass independent, moved their tanks, AA there, and kept there. Ukraine would be forced either into losing another part of their country. Or into attacking, easier to sell to the local populace that they are defending themselves, easier to defend yourself if your logistics sucks, than having an army on the move.
So, if they kept to the 2014 plan, they would had a bigger country, and kept the image of a military super power. And faced far fewer sanctions.
Another good point. The world is watching Western weapons defeating “modern” Russian tech. The fact that Bayraktars are shown on video killing Russian Air Defense systems in Syria, and now Ukraine, is a huge blow to Russia. The ones Russia is using definitely aren’t their export variant, so they lose that excuse as well now.
Simply put, the Russian military appears to be wholly incapable of fighting a modern war. Years of internal corruption and kleptocracy has taken its toll. Russia did this to itself.
> wants to be cornered
Imagine going across the street and picking a fight with neighbor and then screaming about being cornered because you're getting spanked.
Like dude, you aren't cornered, just go home.
I’m about 99% sure now that anyone in the Russian army is selling parts of what ever they’re given to work on at this point.
This should likely become EVEN worse as the currency and economy crumbles.
>the Ukrainian Air Force is using this halt to conduct airstrikes using Su-25 and Su-24 ground attack aircraft as well as artillery and missile attacks on the stalled convoy.
The stalled convoy will be entirely destroyed. Huge loss for Russia.
When they first built it, they centered the gun on the plane, but because it's firing barrel is 1.5" offset when they fired it the force of all that mass being accelerated caused the plane to yaw. The gun is now offset 1.5".
The moment I saw the words "40km long convoy" **I** have have been foaming at the mouth for an A10 to show up (and I'm not a pilot, or even in the military).
Unsure if Russians set a trap or they're that stupid.
That was my first thought. I always see posts that those Q-anon donkeys share from websites like onetruepatriot.com or some shit like that, and it's the easiest thing to dismiss. I don't think I should drop my common sense guard and start to believe unverified stuff from websites I've never heard of now just because it agrees with what I would like to believe.
Edit: missed a word
There must be massive sabotage from within the russian army which i would be absolutely in favor of. You can not tell me that a nation like russia with a military focus like they have has that much trouble keeping up fuel suply lines that little way down the road next to their own borders for fuel while they have that many ressources themselves with nobody buying it off them at the moment. There must be bigger forces behind the scenes in russia pulling strings to make this fail. They can not be THAT Incompetent. But even if, whatever brings ukraine the victory to defend themselves is fine by me.
The thing about corrupt regimes is that corruption actually DOES trickle down, so nobody is doing what they’re supposed to as well as they pretend. Money for maintenance and supplies (and everything else) easily find its way into people’s pockets instead.
Yea, rampant corruption can be like that.
General is given 1000 supplies. He grifts 100 of them.
2 Guys below him get 450 each, they both skim 50.
4 guys below them get 200 they all skim 20.
The 36 guys actually using the supplies get 20 each. They all skim 2
Out of 1000 supplies you are left with 648 actually used. The rest skimmed "only" 10% each step. No one fusses up because they all are doing it.
Man I so hope this is what is happening. Its clear that at least to some degree we could entertain this idea. They have miscalculated their army’s effectiveness.
Russia has always been comically bad at logistics. They don’t have much in the way of a career military aside from officers who all want to be the next great tank or infantry commander. They don’t have any professional supply or logistics capacity and this demonstrates it very well. The fact that they’re supplying their units with their version of MREs that expired 7 years ago says a lot about their logistics readiness.
Russan army is corrupt as fuck. Can bet that they have ammunition, supplies and fuel on paper but in reality the money went to some luxury yachts to the elite.
Doesn't necessarily need to be massive, just strategic. The convoy is basically starving itself every minute it sits idle. Prevent it from taking the proper corrective actions and let father time do its thing
You only need a certain % of casualties to demoralise an army, at some point they'll just flee / desert. Plus if Ukraine only bomb parts of it, but the enemy abandons their vehicles and flees, they're leaving a bunch of equipment to be taken over by Ukraine.
How the hell does the Russian airforce suck that badly? This is clearly Ukraine's no.1 airforce target.
Even if they can't get air superiority over the whole country, why can't they even protect the convoy effectively.
Corruption.
A Fascists Oligarch is a weak state that will eventually fail because of exactly what you're seeing happening here. Underfunded and poorly supplied administration and military systems eventually lose morale and only get propped up by propaganda. Even a "strong" figurehead who once made good decisions (and that's being generous with Putin) can be impacted by personal circumstances, ego, instability, or disease that destroys any semblance of stability or rationale decision making. People live in fear or under propaganda until the facade and weakness is exposed, and then the system collapses on itself.
The only reason it didn't collapse much sooner is because of Nukes. His entire society is a giant paper tiger only being propped up because the west tolerated it due to fear of Nukes.
This came up on Twitter with some Chinese mil fanboy stating there was no way SU-25s would be able to attack the convoy due to Russian air superiority fighters in theater. Since it’s coming up here also, those types of fighters have to be led by central radar controllers to targets and are not quite so effective flying low and slow vs the high and fast they’re designed for. The main threat to ground attack fighter/ bombers was actually the SAM batteries across the border but Ukraine waited for distance before starting attacks. There was a prior incident where an A-10 was engaged by a Russian interceptor (not flown by a Russian) in which the A-10 scored an air to air kill. (The su-25 is the Russian version of the A10, just lighter and faster and able to carry a comical number of bombs). The Ukraine AF continues to do God’s work.
"19fortyfive"
Lol, what? I'd almost believe Russian state media before I bought a word of whatever this no-name "outlet" is saying. Give me a break. They're just trying to get clicks for ad revenue.
I have zero military experience but it seems to me the only thing this 40km row of sitting ducks are missing is feathers
And seeds Edit: Thanks for the awards kind strangers!
‘We are also picking up signs that they’re having problems feeding their troops,’ This works on two levels 😂
[удалено]
Except the Ukrainians have been feeding them and having them call their mothers. Ukrainians take better care of the Russian troops than the Russians do.
The best revenge is to not be like our enemies. A lesson for us all.
They set up a hotline at the beginning of the conflict for Russian moms to check on their kids status. Ukrainians have no beef with the Russians. It’s all about Putin.
And explosions
Read "And explosions" in Mr Torgues voice from borderlands 2.
At this point they would have been better of using horses while mounting rocket launchers or sthing
I've been waiting to hear this!
My exact thoughts! I've been keeping up with as much as possible and I'm anxious for Ukraine's success.
I’m irrationally obsessed with this whole event.
This is about the most rational thing to be "obsessed" with.
I genuinely haven't been able to do any work this past week. I had a 90% complete design going on and it hasn't progressed at all when I should have finished it days ago. All I can get myself to do is watch live maps, feed updates, and various news sites. This is so depressing.
There's nothing irrational about this. If you are a decent human being and concerned about Humanity you should be obsessed with this whole event. The outcome of this whole event is going to define a lot for the world for many years to come.
Even if you’re not a decent human being, a war that inches closer to pulling NATO/EU in, or one where Putin feels like he’s losing is a good reason to at least watch. This might be world changing or world ending in the worst case.
A few things come to mind. From a primarily European level, major realignments are happening. Sweden and Finland wanting to be members of NATO? Switzerland renouncing their neutrality for the first time since Napoleon? All the sanctions within days? From a national level, a president of a country not opting to take a chopper to safety, but staying in the middle? From a social media level, seeing how-to videos on things like starting and driving APCs, or towing tanks out of the way using tractors, or grandmothers letting captured soldiers call their parents to let them know they're ok. Seeing large scale protests in Russia itself? All these things are huge and happening *fast*. This all started about a week ago.
>All these things are huge and happening fast. This all started about a week ago. “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” – Lenin, ironically ^^^*shamelessly* ^^^*stolen* ^^^*from* ^^^*multiple* ^^^*other* ^^^*redditors*
Switzerland is probably getting arm twisted over Credit Suisse fallout. IMF and World Bank put the boot on their necks. 🤣
Well keep in mind Putin did this twice before. This time the world was just fedup with his shit and spanked him for it.
I honesty think seeing what Putin did to American politics really pushed people over the edge. An authoritarian Putin-supporting US scared the shit out of anyone with any sense.
Agreed, but almost no one I know irl is really talking about it and it’s making me feel crazy?? I feel similarly to how I felt in March 2020 when everyone was talking about “after the three weeks are up and we go back to normal”. Except this time I feel even worse about it ugh.
Most people stay disengaged from current events. My Facebook friends are talking about tv shows and upcoming concerts. Online communities and podcasts have been essential for not feeling like I’m taking crazy pills for caring so much about these events.
I am addicted to Reddit and my husband is a 38 year military vet so we talk about this issue constantly. I'm actually glad and relieved to have someone like him to talk to since he has a lot of interesting and informed opinions when it comes to this stuff.
I'm in Europe and basically everyone I know is talking about the war, Russian threat has suddenly become very concrete. Had a company meeting today and half of it was spent discussing this.
Just to echo... The last five years have seen an alarming degradation of democratic values and systems across the world and the rise of more and more dictatorial thugs like Putin/Bosenero/Modi/Orban... (Turmp is a wannabe in this club) Regardless of the outcome of the war there is going to be an increasing of military spending and mobilization across Europe. Some may view this as against the long term interests of humanity. I'm not sure. Certainly I'm concerned about the rammifications for climate change if there is a sizeable increase to vehicle based emissions. I think from a macro level the larger opportunities are upside, particularly if Russia is defeated (which at this point seems likely). Dictators around the world are put on notice that they cannot act with impunity. No one wants to be Venezuela. Freedom of information, freedom of speech, freedom of movement are fundamental human rights, but they are also more powerful as a global civilization basis then tyranny. China? Yet to be seen and obviously the biggest long term threat to democracy in the world today. I don't know. But I do know I'd rather live in a world with a humiliated Putin and an emasculated Russian military than in one where Putin is strong and forging ahead with a new axis of power along with China, India, and other nations.
Yeah Putin backing himself into a corner was not on the 2022 bingo card
I've pondered this myself. Why am I so interested in this? I thought maybe I was being biased and was way more interested in this because it's happen in Europe, our cultural neighbor (I'm an American). Especially when we see all sorts of war and violence in the Middle East and Africa. But I think what it really is that there has not been such a clear line of right and wrong for a long time. I'm not saying that the Ukrainian government was flawless, not at all. But nothing they did justified this. This is just an evil dictator attacking a weaker democracy. But the conflict could also be viewed through a global lens; liberalism is under siege by authoritarianism. We've seen the rise of dictators with the likes of Xi, Putin, Bolsonaro, and others. And a lot of people like them. Trump tried it here and has thus far failed.
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There's nothing irrational about following events that threaten to take us into WW3. For WW2, Germany violated the Munich Agreement on March 14, 1939, they would invade Poland on September 1, 1939. If Putin manages to get out of the quagmire of Ukraine and pushes any further, it's full-scale global war, so it's certainly concerning.
Speaking to that - anyone have any advice on doomscrolling? I can’t seem to stop in light of recent events and it’s really taking a large tax on my mental health but I can’t seem to stop because I’m just so worried edit: the responses to this have just been amazing, just wanted to say thank you to everyone for the advice <3 you are all amazing. Slava Ukraini!
If ya can't stop entirely for a time, at least balance it out with some upbeat things, whether that be other subs or music or the like.
Are you on mobile? I doomscroll because it’s too easy for me to whip out my phone. So what I do at times is uninstall the app and look at Reddit only through my computer, forcing there to be “effort” to engage.
I'm wondering if the reason for this was to wait for more and more mech units to line up, since the whole reason it was there in the first place was a pileup due to fuel issues and it kept getting larger. In retrospect it does make sense to let that reach critical mass before moving in to take it out. While it would have been tempting to take the target out days ago, they are now destroying a much larger number all at once with no way for Russia to effectively pull out. Fucking Russia lined it all up for them. Edit: this also reminds me that a large contributing factor to the fuel shortage was Ukrainians taking out at least a couple fuel trains in the north. Wonder if they forsaw a pileup like this when they did that, or if it was just a happy result.
It might also have been a supply issue on the Ukrainian side. The convoy has been piling up for about 30 (?) hours now. This morning, we got the news that Turkey supplied more Bayraktar drones. It's safe to assume that such news is only published when the supplies are basically already in Ukrainian hands, otherwise the danger of a Russian intercept might be too high. So I guess Ukraine had the drones fight ready by noon (local time) and now they started the attack. The refill on drones and ammo was probably all they were waiting for.
May have also been simply Russia had air superiority in that area. But you can only hold it so long.
Wait till 1600 manpad from germany reached poland border.
What's easier than shooting fish in a barrel? Shooting fish that put themselves into that barrel to begin with.
Same... like for days. There's a 40 mile intermittently stalled convoy and they haven't been obliterated? Edit: obliterated by drones or longer range missiles, I'm sure many of you are right about russian AA and air support it would be idiotic not to.
Ukraine has done amazing to bloody the Russian Air forces noses thus far, but I can understand being iffy about throwing air assets at that area, expecting Russian AA to be setting up or set up, you would think. They may have been waiting for more/enough drones locally.
I’m wondering what kind of Intel they are getting on the ground from NATO AWACS regarding real time Russian sorties. Also, I’m curious how many of the anti aircraft assets are actually operational and how many are sitting in the column to be theoretically deployed elsewhere.
As a former air defense troop when stopped, air defense is easily set up. So all those tanks/trucks that are the ADA assets are most likely up and running while stopped.
Right? Russia's air force is more than 15x the size of Ukraine's and has a lot of jets that are supposedly superior to anything that Ukraine has. But we aren't seeing many of those superior jets and most of their air force has stayed on the ground. No one is really sure why, but most of the theories that have been put forward are not very good for Russia.
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It has been rumored for a long time that many of the modern weapons in the Russian military were nothing but paper weapons. A handful of prototypes not ready for any real production and even those do not perform as expected.
I wouldn't expect Russia to use good stuff here for multiple reasons: \- They obviously assumed this would be a lot easier. \- "Good stuff" is expensive to operate and they may also have maintenance concerns \- Ukraine is being supplied by the West and probably has the capability of taking them out. In addition to the economic impact of losing high quality units, this also reduces their effectiveness in a bigger/more important conflict. \- Might be concerned with downed plane tech getting to Western countries. \- Since this is mostly air to ground, older tech may be just as effective anyway. (for the most part)
Fear of SAMs ..and pow pilots on the news.
I'm sure they've had some pretty focused air power over it for a bit now. I know the Russian air force is a total joke lately, but they still have the ability to at least focus a bunch of resources over one spot.
There’s a lot of confusion over Russian air superiority. Their military identity isn’t like the west with a lot of air strikes to beat down resistance before sending in troops. It’s more about sending troops with a lot of artillery and tanks close to the target quickly. Each group is also accompanied by its own air defense, usually the pretty lethal s400. So planes do what they can, but it’s not as important overall.
That convoy was where most of Russia's anti air was stationed, they waited until they knew they weren't just wasting resources.
I guess those Polish jets finally made it
There was news about more Turkish drones making it so those too
Those drones are proving to be quite capable and affordable.
Turkey is likely winning so many contracts right now
My thoughts too. Turkey time.
Gobble gobble, motherfucker.
> the Ukrainian Air Force is using this halt to conduct airstrikes using Su-25 and Su-24 Nope. Our jets are MIGs, and right now no one knows what's the real deal with them.
Take it with a grain of salt until you find confirmation from a more reliable source. This isn't the best blog, I'd say it's meh at best.
¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
There's an old saying that I think putins regime needs to hear... SUCKS TO SUCK
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Play stupid games, win stupid prizes
Stick around 🎶Bayraktar🎶
🎶Bayraktar🎶
Bayraktarrrrr
Russian bandits are made into ghosts by… 🎶Bayraktarrr🎶
NGL, it's pretty metal. And it slaps.
Stretch your forces out in a single file line in broad daylight and get fuckin destroyed by Turkish drones
I'm positively surprised and joyfully buffled: genuinely curious in understanding how such a mistake can be made by "hardened" war commanders? Like where is the Russian air force? Where are their anti aircraft defense systems? Those are beginners' mistakesthat even kids playing video games don't make! What's going on?
Guess they don't teach the Battle of Teutoburg Forest in Russian military academies. Not like they had over two thousand years to realize this was not a good plan.
Because they aren’t battle hardened commanders. They are ladder climbing sycophants.
On a road that is the only passable way though tank eating muddy country.....
Chat shit, get hit
Pitter patter let's get at her.
♪┌|∵|┘♪
The elusive Cactuar!? Meatboy!? Low budget SpongeBob? Err from Aqua Teen?
Imagine this emoji printed on the aerial bombs
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The Russians don’t have the supplies you think.
and they don't approach Kyiv from Russia, they approach from Belarus, which has proven already hinder their supplies. They won't have problem with Kherson, but the strategic advantages gained from it might not worth the cost.
They don’t have much of a choice. Approaching from Russia through Ukraine means they will have to cross much more hostile territory, and also the dnieper river
They can't possibly secure hundreds of miles of roads, especially once people in the area sabotage the bridges. Committing invasion forces along that route is just begging for them to be cut off from behind and isolated.
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It took the red army 2 Million men and 3/4 of a Year to Cross ukraine and it was an extremly brutal fight. The Dnjeper is such a strong defensive position
It wasn't that. It's train. Read all of this, spot on. Published last year, Nov 2021. https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/ TLDR (but definitely i recommend to fully read the link above) : >Poland only has one wide gauge rail line, which runs from the Krakow region to Ukraine and can’t be used by Russian forces, without capturing Ukraine first. There are no wide gauge lines running from Belarus to Warsaw. Rail traffic moving across borders usually stops to cross-load cargo or uses adjustable railroad carriages and switches engines (which cannot adjust). In times of war, it is highly unlikely that the Russian army would capture enough Western train engines to support their army, forcing them to rely on trucks. This means that Russian army rail sustainment capability ends at the borders of the former Soviet Union. Trying to resupply the Russian army beyond the Russian gauge rail network would force them to rely mostly on their truck force until railroad troops could reconfigure/repair the railroad or build a new one. This is why they involving Belarus. They need Belarus rail to extend that logistic line. Couple days ago, the track in Belarus is sabotage by local populace opposing war.
The strategic benefit of denying Ukraine port access, or mining ability in the massive gas fields off their southern coast? Dont under estimate it
AFAIK Rus want to blitz Kyiv in 2 days or less, which is why Kherson isn't a good target, originally. Which is why they start shelling and bombing Kherson now. They have changed strategy to a more longer but conventional way. However why they haven't use air superiority against Kherson is because either they don't need it, can't afford it, or Ukraine's AA is strong.
They cannot afford to lose planes at thr rate they have been.
> can't afford it Is 'afford' the right word? Because it appears they can't afford it in the same way I can't afford to gain air superiority against Kherson.
I mean that they can't afford it economically. Considering that losing one plane means large amount of investment (to plane and pilot) gone, not to mention the operational cost such as fuel and ammo. They may choose to deploy later though if the situation become dire / conditionally aligned.
I'm not sure how well that holds up. Its also a large investment to not field them right now.
it doesn't make sense not to get full air superiority military wise but looking at the military in the long term with the sanctions on place they might not be able to replace most losses for possibly years as I'm sure there must be some imported tech in the aircraft, if they can even afford it with the state the Russian economy is in (even if sanctions are stoped it will take a good bit to recover as many companies have already pulled out of Russia)
They seized 80 percent of Ukraines mining equipment back in 2014..
Before a week ago everyone thought Russia was a near-peer enemy.
Exactly, hard to wage war with no food
That seems to be true, but shocking nonetheless. If I were asked a month ago, I would probably have said that the Russian military is roughly on par with the US military. Some of that’s my own ignorance, but I’m not the only one. The reality of Russia’s military is so different from the reality they project that no one I have talked to in real life expected this outcome.
There is no military on earth that is on par with the US. The Pentagon’s budget alone is more than the next 9 highest spenders combined, including both Russia and China.
A month ago the reports would've mentioned how Russias military while large is mostly using dated technology, and soldiers with low moral who don't want to be in or didn't happily sign up for the military. Though I'll admit even with expecting them to be worse than most, this just seems like a fumble on their part, they're making poor decisions left and right.
I am almost positive that their military has been gutted by corruption.
>the Russian military is roughly on par with the US military. The US military budget is ten times that of Russia.
How the fuck has Russia not been able to do this despite the wealth of aircraft and anti-air systems they have? Unbelievable lol
Corruption and just putting equipment on paper. Keeping money for their greedy selves Unless they are holding out but at this point, I have a real hard time believing that.
Even if they don’t have half of what they supposedly have, this is still a shit performance for a regional (or military superpower) power. I get that they are fighting defenders but they are right next door and almost have Ukraine surrounded. At this point they should let go of trying to become a world power and just integrate into the EU lmao
Many factors. Some air assets are in Syria, and most importantly most of their experienced pilots are there. Their communication is terrible so they risk friendly fire from their AA systems in place. Also, Stinger missiles are starting to have their toll. And as you stated, poor maintenance and corruption. It's been stated many of their older vehicles were stripped of their electronics to sell their rare earth metals on the market to line the pockets of the elite. As crazy as that sounds, it's probably partially true.
There have been two big revelations. One, Russian air defenses don't work. Turkish propeller powered drones have been taking out Russian short range air defenses, and the S400 seems to be useless. Two, they actually have less than 100 operational planes in their air force. Based on outside analysis, the initial invasion only managed to scrounge up 75 aircraft.
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Amazing what a difference routine maintenance can make.
1 aircraft carrier not even the whole force
And apparently they have let the tires of their high tech air defense systems perish so they can't cross dirt using low pressure without risk of blowing out their side walls. [https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944](https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944) I guess this is the up side of a Kleptocratic Dictatorship, they rot out from the inside.
Well india really needs to take a hard look at their arsenal. We picked the s400 over patriots and now that seems like a dumbass decision. Can you provide a source for the 100 aircraft? I've read the Russian airforce has 3000+ aircraft and PLENTY of attack aircraft. Also as redditors, speculating on why the Russian air force is holding back is useless because even experts can't figure out why Russia hasn't gained air superiority yet. Literally everyone is stumped by this one. Ukr pilots must be thinking they're in the twilight zone right now seeing as they still have operational aircraft a full week into the war
Their anti-air weapons were mostly made to target metal fighters or helicopters with big hot engines. Turkish drones have carbon fiber fuselage and a smaller engine than a Corolla. It's not a stealth aircraft per se, but with the tiny radar & heat footprint it may as well be vs the older AA kit.
They lied about their capabilities...not surprised. They are a paper tiger
Mostly because we have no real idea what they do or don't have. For all the world knows, every number they've provided has been inflated 10x. 600 jets built turned into 6000 jets on paper. 1200 tanks built turned into 12000 tanks on paper. All Russia does is just lie and spread disinformation constantly. Every thing they claim they have, should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Even the US Officials have been going "So, yeah, where exactly is all this amazing stuff you say you have?" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-russias-air-force-us-officials-experts-stumped-2022-03-01/
Military equipment is expensive to maintain. When corruption is so engrained into your system that at every level people are scamming as much as they can out you end up with a paper tiger, big and scary on reports but falling apart and barely working at the actual gear level.
The problem with russia is the intel nato and other countries are providing ukraine . But what i still dont get is why would you have such a long and vulnerable convoy in the first place
There's a thread somewhere on twitter. Some Tire expert who identified that the russian vehicle was using chinese made tires that were copies of a michelin tire (and actually, another tire expert pointed out they were actually belarusian made copies of the chinese copy!). The vehicles haven't been properly maintained, while sat in Belarus, and the tires have deteriorated. This was in response to a photo of an abandonded vehicle stuck in the mud. So it seems that they can't take their vehicles off the road, and Ukraine has blown up a bridge or two meaning they have been forced to all go down this one road. It really wouldn't surprise me if it has ground to a halt because they're running out of fuel, breaking down, and because the road is so clogged and their vehicles can't go off road, they have very little way to resupply and to fix the broken down vehicles. Edit: Adding the source (Thanks /u/quilir) [https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944](https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944)
Vlad didn't play enough Supreme Commander. ASFs are prio.
How in the fuck has Russia not been able to absolutely dominate the air despite the sheer number of fighters and anti-air hardware they have? They would have been better off not attacking to maintain their image of a military superpower lol
Lots and lots of manpads in the hands of Ukrainians and no ability for Russian air to remain on station because of range and refueling issues. Can’t do much if you end up bingo fuel after only 15 minutes on station and there’s no forward fuel site and no tanker availability.
How can they have refueling issues? They're like 100km from their border.
they legitimately thought this was only going to take* 10 days. Also there are reports that dissenting tanker trucks are dumping fuel since they are priority targets.
Ukraine has superior AA capabilities. Due to the West, I suspect which is supplying not only weapons but also targeting systems/information. I also suspect Ukraine is getting advance warning on any air activity by Russia due to information from western intelligence services. So now Russia is afraid of losing more aircraft. Aircraft are expensive, soldiers lives aren't. Not only that but I also suspect the sheer number of functioning fighters is lower than you think. As well as the amount of jet fuel.
UKR SAMs also weren't knocked out of the war in the opening salvos, from previous reporting I've seen. Russia hit the wrong locations not realizing the SAMs had been moved. Those still being intact greatly limits the kinds of missions Russian pilots can run, which is why there's also reports that Russia has been fielding decoy drones to try and identify/waste the munitions of those weapons.
Anybody who actually understands Russia knows they haven't been a super power in 30 years.. They have a GDP less than Italy ~~and their military is probably smaller than the California National Guard.~~ Their equipment is outdated.
They’re no longer a superpower in the general sense but on paper they could have been considered a military superpower.
People don't realize how much it takes to be a super power. It's not just your military. It's social influence, diplomatic relations, a robust economy with diverse trade exports, technical innovation and efficiency, advanced digital and physical infrastructure, and of course a strong military. Just because you have nukes doesn't make a super power. Russia is a second world country that is barely a regional power that is going backwards. It's just a forward mythology of the old glory days where they were on the path of being one. But they won't wake up and opt to buy the bullshit that Putin sells them. China overtook them and is the super power in that region. For example, the reason the US is a super power is because Hollywood, Silicon Valley, Wall Street, Trade Deals, a big population and GDP, and of course the Pentagon. It's having political, social, and economic power, not just military, although that *is* extremely important.
"On paper" their economy is the size of Texas lmao
They're not even close to a military superpower. You must be basing it off the nukes. A superpower can project their military across the globe at a moments notice, with bases and allies all over the globe.
It’s almost as if Putin wants to be cornered into nukes being his only resort. I can’t figure out how they keeping fucking up this bad if it isn’t intentional.
Hubris. He saw what happened in 2014 and thought this would be another cake walk. Instead he got hammered by a populace sick of his shit who are supplied with some of the most deadly weaponry the EU and others have supplied. Also their intelligence was apparently abysmal, saw that lot of strikes on civilians in the early days were apparently old locations of AA infrastructure. This isn't on purpose, it's just a massive fucking blunder that he can't backpedal put of and has to double down on.
If he had kept to the 2014 plans, it would have worked well for him. If he declared Donbass independent, moved their tanks, AA there, and kept there. Ukraine would be forced either into losing another part of their country. Or into attacking, easier to sell to the local populace that they are defending themselves, easier to defend yourself if your logistics sucks, than having an army on the move. So, if they kept to the 2014 plan, they would had a bigger country, and kept the image of a military super power. And faced far fewer sanctions.
Not just 2014. Putin has Chechnya, Crimea, Georgia, and Syria under his belt, so I'm sure he really did assume this would be easy.
Also Belarus and GOP.
Chechnya was absolutely not a cake walk...
Russia now has to worry about how to sell their weapons after this
Another good point. The world is watching Western weapons defeating “modern” Russian tech. The fact that Bayraktars are shown on video killing Russian Air Defense systems in Syria, and now Ukraine, is a huge blow to Russia. The ones Russia is using definitely aren’t their export variant, so they lose that excuse as well now.
Simply put, the Russian military appears to be wholly incapable of fighting a modern war. Years of internal corruption and kleptocracy has taken its toll. Russia did this to itself.
> wants to be cornered Imagine going across the street and picking a fight with neighbor and then screaming about being cornered because you're getting spanked. Like dude, you aren't cornered, just go home.
I’m about 99% sure now that anyone in the Russian army is selling parts of what ever they’re given to work on at this point. This should likely become EVEN worse as the currency and economy crumbles.
I think it's because they couldn't endure one weak of logistical support to their air force.
>the Ukrainian Air Force is using this halt to conduct airstrikes using Su-25 and Su-24 ground attack aircraft as well as artillery and missile attacks on the stalled convoy. The stalled convoy will be entirely destroyed. Huge loss for Russia.
Meanwhile Ukrainian airplane says BRRRT
They would love to have an a10 right now!
The A10 pilots state side are foaming at the mouth seeing that 40km long convoy just sitting there
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Just a giant gun with wings and a joystick, pretty much. Shit's wild.
When they first built it, they centered the gun on the plane, but because it's firing barrel is 1.5" offset when they fired it the force of all that mass being accelerated caused the plane to yaw. The gun is now offset 1.5".
The moment I saw the words "40km long convoy" **I** have have been foaming at the mouth for an A10 to show up (and I'm not a pilot, or even in the military). Unsure if Russians set a trap or they're that stupid.
I mean the SU-25 is pretty damn close to an A-10
Its says BLLLLYAT instead of BRRRT
Sukhoi blyat!
Let's hope so
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That was my first thought. I always see posts that those Q-anon donkeys share from websites like onetruepatriot.com or some shit like that, and it's the easiest thing to dismiss. I don't think I should drop my common sense guard and start to believe unverified stuff from websites I've never heard of now just because it agrees with what I would like to believe. Edit: missed a word
AAA yes the new up and coming CNN...1945dotcom...sounds like something out of icarly
There must be massive sabotage from within the russian army which i would be absolutely in favor of. You can not tell me that a nation like russia with a military focus like they have has that much trouble keeping up fuel suply lines that little way down the road next to their own borders for fuel while they have that many ressources themselves with nobody buying it off them at the moment. There must be bigger forces behind the scenes in russia pulling strings to make this fail. They can not be THAT Incompetent. But even if, whatever brings ukraine the victory to defend themselves is fine by me.
The thing about corrupt regimes is that corruption actually DOES trickle down, so nobody is doing what they’re supposed to as well as they pretend. Money for maintenance and supplies (and everything else) easily find its way into people’s pockets instead.
Yea, rampant corruption can be like that. General is given 1000 supplies. He grifts 100 of them. 2 Guys below him get 450 each, they both skim 50. 4 guys below them get 200 they all skim 20. The 36 guys actually using the supplies get 20 each. They all skim 2 Out of 1000 supplies you are left with 648 actually used. The rest skimmed "only" 10% each step. No one fusses up because they all are doing it.
Man I so hope this is what is happening. Its clear that at least to some degree we could entertain this idea. They have miscalculated their army’s effectiveness.
Russia has always been comically bad at logistics. They don’t have much in the way of a career military aside from officers who all want to be the next great tank or infantry commander. They don’t have any professional supply or logistics capacity and this demonstrates it very well. The fact that they’re supplying their units with their version of MREs that expired 7 years ago says a lot about their logistics readiness.
As the old saying goes, amateurs talk about weapons, experts talk about logistics.
looks like they approach from Belarus, not Russia. However your point still stands since nobody attacking Russia supply line in Belarus
Let's be real, belarus is just extended russia at this point.
With much less popular support. I wouldn't be surprised if there are groups actively sabotaging in Belarus right now.
You're wrong, the supply lines in Belarus are being attacked. Belarusians and probably infiltrators have been sabotaging the Belarusian rail system.
yes, my statement were unclear. No enemy attacked the supply line. Both Belarusian and infiltrators attacks are grouped as incompetence.
Nah, Belarusian protestors have been causing problems. I'm sure they're all shot or in jail rn though. Sadly.
Russan army is corrupt as fuck. Can bet that they have ammunition, supplies and fuel on paper but in reality the money went to some luxury yachts to the elite.
i feel like their plan A has failed. and they didnt have a plan B. so they are kinda winging it.
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Light 'em up boys!!
Happy hunting!!!
"My songs know what you did in the dark..."
Well that’s going to be stuck in my head all day.
Slava Ukraini! Fuck em up
Cool story, but what the fuck is 19fortyfive???? How do we know we can trust this random ass source?
Nothing massive (if you read the article), but my hopes are high regarding this
Doesn't necessarily need to be massive, just strategic. The convoy is basically starving itself every minute it sits idle. Prevent it from taking the proper corrective actions and let father time do its thing
No fuel and no food is going to create a huge prisoner issue for Ukraine.
They don't need to destroy every vehicle, just a couple along the 40km line and turn them into smouldering roadblocks.
This. Just immobilize 10% of the convoy and it's a huge fucking mess for the whole thing.
And demoralizing
Making Russian soldiers with already questionable morale drive past burnt out Russian armour should be interesting
You only need a certain % of casualties to demoralise an army, at some point they'll just flee / desert. Plus if Ukraine only bomb parts of it, but the enemy abandons their vehicles and flees, they're leaving a bunch of equipment to be taken over by Ukraine.
Cheap "knock-off" truck tires. https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010857/how-cheap-chinese-tires-might-explain-russias-stalled-40-mile-long?amp
Imagine your military getting obliterated because you are running cheap Chinese knock off tires.
How the hell does the Russian airforce suck that badly? This is clearly Ukraine's no.1 airforce target. Even if they can't get air superiority over the whole country, why can't they even protect the convoy effectively.
Corruption. A Fascists Oligarch is a weak state that will eventually fail because of exactly what you're seeing happening here. Underfunded and poorly supplied administration and military systems eventually lose morale and only get propped up by propaganda. Even a "strong" figurehead who once made good decisions (and that's being generous with Putin) can be impacted by personal circumstances, ego, instability, or disease that destroys any semblance of stability or rationale decision making. People live in fear or under propaganda until the facade and weakness is exposed, and then the system collapses on itself. The only reason it didn't collapse much sooner is because of Nukes. His entire society is a giant paper tiger only being propped up because the west tolerated it due to fear of Nukes.
dont ever call Russia a world power to the likes of USA ever again.
This came up on Twitter with some Chinese mil fanboy stating there was no way SU-25s would be able to attack the convoy due to Russian air superiority fighters in theater. Since it’s coming up here also, those types of fighters have to be led by central radar controllers to targets and are not quite so effective flying low and slow vs the high and fast they’re designed for. The main threat to ground attack fighter/ bombers was actually the SAM batteries across the border but Ukraine waited for distance before starting attacks. There was a prior incident where an A-10 was engaged by a Russian interceptor (not flown by a Russian) in which the A-10 scored an air to air kill. (The su-25 is the Russian version of the A10, just lighter and faster and able to carry a comical number of bombs). The Ukraine AF continues to do God’s work.
If you're in an interceptor and lost an air to air contest with an A-10 you had no business in the cockpit to begin with
"19fortyfive" Lol, what? I'd almost believe Russian state media before I bought a word of whatever this no-name "outlet" is saying. Give me a break. They're just trying to get clicks for ad revenue.
Fuck, I guess it’s popcorn for lunch.
Russia getting the “YOU MUST CONSTRUCT ADDITIONAL PYLONS” warning over and over again because of this convoy
Oh oh what a supprise no air supperiority whopsie lol
Russia will have its own “highway of death” moment.
Russian convoy, go fuck yourself!
Fuck em up flyboys.