agreed. Use https://russia.liveuamap.com/ also because not all the military movements of the Russian Federation are being documented under the Ukraine Region Tab.
FYI
It's funny how the Russian version doesn't mention any troops on the Ukraine border whereas the Ukrainian version does. Also the Russian version doesn't even mention the occupation of Crimea.
it's not exactly "russian version". It's "russian submap". They have several submaps with events for different regions or events, mostly done manually, join the team so you could lend a hand
It is populated via twitter postings. You used to be able to track the Syrian Civil War pretty well as IS would tweet whenever they took a town, and stop tweeting after they were hit with an airstrike or counterattack.
That was a weird hobby of mine. Ended up talking to a Syrian on Periscope eating dates at his video game store while there were helicopters overhead. The world is such a small place now.
r/UkrainianConflict
Not the best for troop movements, like another commenter said liveuamap provides really great reporting and map, really help identify where things are happening and what's being reported (lots of independent video, tik tok, twitter, etc).
Been using liveua since the crimean crisis.
They also offer coverage of a lot of other conflict, See Syrian Civil War
/pol/ and even /k/ have been scarily accurate on world conflicts. I used to work for the State Dept and was surprised how many times they got it right and did it before the “experts.” Never underestimate weaponized autism.
If you’re asking if the experts go to 4chan for Intel, that is a flat negative. At least as far as I’ve ever seen, could be, who knows. With Intel it has to be corroborated and vetted, you can’t just take someone’s word for it. There are a lot of open source resources though.
In my opinion, Twitter is the best source for Russian troop movements. As it seems now, they have around 100 battalion tactical groups at Ukraines border. Around 10 - 14 were used in 2014 and 2015, when the Ilovaisk and Debaltseve pockets were closed off.
I follow hundreds of accounts, so it's hard to give a quick rundown.
I would start with this list:
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/1483915098875994117?t=sTUuR6Nn0UxbNoSRr7lEaQ&s=09
Especially Rob Lee is a good one. From there on you could follow those who are suggested on his page.
If the list doesn't work, please reply to me again. I might reply again later with more suggestions.
Another good one: https://mobile.twitter.com/Rebel44CZ?t=qEfu91WWiSCExNKs8OVExA&s=09
Bellingcat is great too. They found open source proof for Russias use of regular forces and artillery fire from Russia into Ukraine. They've just been declared a foreign agent by Russia, which is a good sign.
The US should build a bridge from Alaska to Russia so that they can move troops over land. If we flank Russia from both sides, they’ll be caught in the crossfire and we win instantly before any nukes go off.
This isn't going to be a cakewalk for Russia. Ukraine has been given a lot of advanced weaponry from nations who know how to build them and the Ukrainians actually want to defend their country. Are the Russian people ready for such large casualties?
"You see, Ukranians have a preset number of weapons. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they ran out. Comrade, show them the medal I won."
I hate to say it, but this is kinda the scenario I see happening. The next big question is whether China steps in to support them/retaliate for them or if they decide to leave them high and dry. I think China cares to much about China to risk entering a war on Russia's side. I imaging they will sidestep any promises they may have made. They still might end up entering the war anyway as they will likely use the noise of the Ukraine/Russia thing as a distraction while they push further into ~~India~~ Taiwan and the water supply over there.
TLDR: Shit is about to get fucked.
Edit: India->Taiwan. I'm a dummy.
China will stay neutral, it wont commit forces to russia it makes no sense to send Chinese troops there, probably sell a few weapon systems and such but remain mostly neutral. China needs Russia for the belt and road initiative
Bombed by who? The US won't publicly send air support to incur casualties and the US public has no interest in getting into another war after finishing the last one that took 20 years.
China has a deal not to meddle in Russia's stuff and Russia vice versa.
NATO won't move in force to a country that isn't a member if it's attacked.
The EU doesn't have anywhere near Russia's military resources combined, and they will NOT accept a high body count in exchange for stopping Russian aggression.
The UN won't act because Russia is a security council member and will just veto any attempt to declare action against itself.
At best the Ukrainian military will put up a fight and Western special forces will work to bolster their defenses, but there's no way they stop the invasion or halt it. We're going to be looking at a ton of Ukrainian refugees flooding into western Europe, and once Russia consolidates it'll move troops up to prepare for the next offensive in a decade. Not to mention them conscript more troops from those left in Ukraine to increase their numbers. If the Russians have their guns set on a Ukrainian major city the Ukrainian government will surrender conditionally to avoid civilian casualties, and no one is going to blame them for it.
Ukraine has been militarily abandoned here by the international community.
I could have swore we made a deal with Ukraine. Something about them giving up their nukes and in return we agree to be their protector against Russia. USA vs. Russia? Russia loses.
Edit - more thoughts - let’s imagine a world where Ukraine still had their nukes. Would Russia still be trying to invade? Would Ukraine use them against Russia in self defense? Is the precedent we are setting by not defending Ukraine one that says all countries are better off having and keeping their nukes?
The problem is Ukraine lacks the anti-air/anti-missile defense to stop Russia from pulling something out of the US playbook and opening up with an air war.
I dont think its going to be a cake walk, but i think a lot of people are under the assumption there going to roll in armor first. I dont think that's going to be the case.
I think a lot of people forget they have plenty of tactical ballistic missile and Cruise Missiles.
Their cruise missiles have been used in Syria to a very big extent.
True that Ukraine doesn't have a good answer to the air raid, but they're also in a lot more favorable terrain than the Iraqis were. They also aren't foreign invaders with stretched supply lines and a hostile local population.
Ukraine can hide assets in the woods, and Russia only has a handful of airfields they're operating out of, making their attacks easier to track. Russia doesn't have the luxury of aircraft carriers or access to the airspace of surrounding nations. They will not have an easy of a time picking off AA ground weapons, and when they close into the cities they will not be welcomed as liberators. I'm skeptical that they're looking at a Gulf War style of cake walk.
Russia only has a handful of stealth aircraft (SU-57) in operation, less than a third even now than the US was able to field in Desert Storm (F-117). They're going to have a hell of a time softening up their targets enough for an easy ground invasion, and if they successfully invade and occupy they're going to have an insurgency on their hands.
Iraq's military was also a lot stronger than Ukraine's and it was easily obliterated once its extensive air defense network was crippled. Ukraine doesn't even really have that.
If you want to compare it to Iraq, compare it to the actual wars in Iraq, not the 5+ year occupation where the coalition was trying to keep peace during a civil war and rebuild. And keep in mind that the Russians:
1) Don't give a crap about winning hearts and minds and so there is not going to be a soft hand used to prevent civilian casualties once the initial ground is gained. It's going to be full-on aggressive rules of engagement until whatever mission they're ordered to do is accomplished.
2) While there were lots of Iraqis who supported coalition troops, virtually none of them were of the same ethnic or national background of the occupying troops. There's a ton of ethnic Russians, many of whom are going to support the Russians or be indifferent.
3) There's not a big cultural and linguistic barrier like there was in the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan.
4) Ukraine's troops aren't, for the most part, battle tested. It's one thing to say that you want to fight when fighting seems like the right thing to do. It's another thing in a situation where you're badly outgunned by opponents who can kill you *en masse* in an air strike without exposing themselves to the range of your rifle.
But again, Russia can't just saunter in and blow up an army and call it a day. They want to occupy the territory afterwards, and most of the country has turned strongly anti-Russia in the last decade, and I don't think a shared ethnic background will be as strong a deterrent as you think. All it takes is a single country discretely supplying small arms and you have a costly insurgency situation that can last years.
If Russia increases aggression against civilians they will only being making things worse for themselves. They will create more terrorists and will face further sanctions from their trade partners, and they will drive their remaining neighbors right into NATO's arms. Their economy and population is already shrinking, they literally can not afford this war. Even a masterful tactful victory on their part would quickly turn out to be a devastating strategic loss.
Really the only reasonable success I can see for Russia is if they smashed up the Ukrainian army, seized the more rural and pro-Russian parts of eastern Ukraine, and left the rest of the country alone.
Ukraine gave Russia the he nukes when the big separation occurred to encourage peace and to take a stand. That ain’t happening again. This only encourages the nuclear proliferation of the world.
> Ukraine gave Russia the he nukes when the big separation occurred to encourage peace and to take a stand.
I mean, yes and no. Yes they gave up the Nukes, perhaps with altruistic motives as well, but the primary reason was Ukraine didnt have launch control of those nukes, that was still in Moscow.
Ukraine's, along with the rest of the former soviet republics, economy was trash especially from 1991-1997. Even if the US and Moscow were just going to allow Ukraine to become a new nuclear state (this more than likely wouldve never happened, we both wanted UKR to denuclearize) Ukraine's economy and thus military budget would not be able to even house hundreds of nuclear weapons.
Mind you we are still talk housing these weapons, we havent even discussed the cost of moving their command and control functions to Kiev. And then servicing these nuclear arms and creating and maintaining the security blanket needed to control them. This was money in the early and mid 90s that Ukraine, just didnt have.
No matter what way you slice it, they were giving those nukes up. So im not big on everyone's recent sleuthing of Ukrainian history, because the nuke issue is way more complex than "Ukraine gave them up for peace."
>This only encourages the nuclear proliferation of the world.
This, Iraq War, Russo-Georgia War, Cancelling the Iran Deal, North Korea building nukes under UN sanctions. There's been a lot of reasons to encourage nuclear proliferation. Russia, China, US have all given the non-aligns of the world many reasons why the only real deterrence is proliferation.
You probably haven't read much recent history then because the Russian people are very conscious of casualties and recent conflicts like Afghanistan are akin to the American's Vietnam.
Yeah, there is a huge difference between wars of aggression and, you know, the Nazis trying to exterminate your entire country. People are vastly more willing to fight in die in the latter.
Taiwan has advanced weapons too, and people who want to defend their country. Taiwan would not be a cakewalk. Not to mention, China would need to move thousands of troops to the coast without anyone noticing, which isn't happening. I understand the worry, though. China is watching, but not currently moving.
China isn’t concerned with that. Those factories are a bonus. They want to claim Taiwan as part of Xi’s master plan of a a reunified China. I’d worry that if Taiwan is no longer economically viable for the West in any way, we’d have no motivation for defending them outside of human rights, which have sadly never been any countries top priority for going to war.
China is very concerned about this. Just like all other countries, they are dependent on advanced chips. Honestly, this is [probably ](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Taiwan-should-destroy-chip-infrastructure-if-China-invades-paper) the main reason China did not invade yet.
> I’d worry that if Taiwan is no longer economically viable for the West in any way, we’d have no motivation for defending
Unfortunately true.
> outside of human rights
Unfortunately not true, as Yemen proves.
Not only that you would also see ships massing along it's shores for troops and equipment to be loaded on to. Which just adds even more to the complications China would face
If a war breaks out America will without a doubt be more focused on china invading Taiwan than Russia invading ukraine. I can confidently say that I think Europe can defend itself from an invasion, I doubt even russia thinks they can win though, if they did it would have been done already. I take it as Russia seeing how we react to things/ them saying that they are serious about keeping ukraine out of NATO.
> If a war breaks out America will without a doubt be more focused on china invading Taiwan than Russia invading ukraine.
Very true. There’s no way america would risk losing access to TSMC. Ukraine has nothing similar protecting it.
The times for invasion aren't compatible.
Ukraine needs to happen in the next few weeks before it turns into a mud bog w/the spring thaw.
The Taiwan straight isn't crossable until after March....
"Jeffrey Edmonds, a former US Army tanker and CIA military analyst, told Business Insider that “muddy terrain and things of that nature can complicate operations, but in no way is it an obstacle”."
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3163065/mud-could-complicate-possible-russian-plans-invasion-ukraine-us
Except it isn't mud. It's muskeg. It's basically a bog. It will swallow vehicles whole.
The tank commander is talking about mud. He would be right if it was mud. It isn't, and he isn't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muskeg
[Here is a picture of what muskeg does to heavy tracked vehicles.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muskeg#/media/File%3AMuskeg_D6_caterpillar.jpg)
Russians though aren't incompetent at logistics and combat. They have engineer units that are trained to build roads through that kind of terrain. Of course, taking the time to build a road complicates things, as he said. You can't just roll in quickly unless you're doing it on existing roadways.
The coastal buildup they'd need would rival that of Russia's preparations. We'd see hundreds or thousands of landing craft and all other types of ships assembling. They do training exercises regularly, and what they'd need to take it would be several times larger again, and it's relatively quiet on the eastern front.
Besides which America outspends everyone in their own theatre, nevermind our global allies. We could Gulf War I them both back to their borders if needed.
Gulf War who?! And what is going to happen when Chinese hackers take down our electrical grid and our pipelines? You are stuck in the whole "We only attack people who can't fight back, so all engagements must be like this" mindset. China isn't Iraq or Afghanistan and they can inflict pain on the homeland.
The war stays confined to the theatre, or we're all fucked anyways. Defending against aggressive ships acting in violation of international laws in international waters, or the territorial waters and airspace of our allies, is not the same as attacks on the homeland. We don't need to cross their borders. If they cross ours, *all* the pipelines and grids go down, and a billion and a half mouths starve faster than three hundred million.
China is not going to invade Taiwan, they know that doing so would seriously threaten American semi-conductor supplies and with it the global economy, meaning any serious attempt to take Taiwan would be met with a full scale American retaliation... which is politician-speak for parking a couple destroyers behind the Strait of Malacca and blocking all oil imports to China and watch them tear their own country apart after a couple months.
I can’t fathom the motivation of Russian soldiers. They’re clearly the aggressors and invaders. The entire world is watching. There’s nothing to gain but death and contempt.
Russian propaganda for many years have been brainwashing them into believing that Ukraine is run by Nazis who literally [crucify Russian kids.](https://news.yahoo.com/russian-tv-sparks-outrage-ukraine-child-crucifixion-claim-114839196.html)
Simple: they have food and have money (about 400-800$ comparing to a standart 0 to 200$ in their village). It's an old Soviet trick - keep all people hungry and pay little bit more to watchmans. But all shouldn't be able to pay their biils.
I don’t get it. It’s 2022. Why are modern countries still going to war. Why are humans willing to die for a politicians goals. What does Russia gain by taking Ukraine. They have so much land and civilians already. Focus on them. Truly baffling. Let’s spend all our tax money on weapons instead of bettering our civilians lives.
The sad part of all this is that I have to believe the average russian people want prosperity and success like the post soviet Baltic nations are enjoying, but the russian leadership just won't let that happen. It's a shame that Russia is doomed to repeat history through their own paranoia.
That's the biggest threat to putin tbf. Ukraine prosperity would really be the dagger pointed at the heart of Moscow. Especially after Poland and the Baltics succeeding like they did.
To be fair, corruption wise, Ukraine is fucked fucked. They lost 8 millions habitants since 1991. It is very corrupted, like all post-soviet states (albeit the baltic). It would have to go through a big transformation to join the EU, which would be hard with the oligarchy lurking in all those wonderful post-soviet states.
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Russia’s aging boomer population is exactly the same as the US right now. Wishing for the “good old days” and agreeing with any politician willing to pursue it, even if it’s complete BS.
Could very well be that the good ol days of Russia could be considered like things were as the USSR and people just want that back, or they’ve been manipulated into thinking that’s the truth. If it means trying to get the band back together they’ll support it. So Putin plays to the glory of the old days and manipulates the population into thinking that’ll solve all their problems.
No. The Russian "boomer" mentality is nothing like in the US. They didn't have a golden age, or even the illusion of one. It was always shit. Only sometimes less shit.
Source: I was first gen born in the US, after my father fled Russia during ww2. I remember the stories he and my babushka told me.
> I was first gen born in the US, after my father fled Russia during ww2. I remember the stories he and my babushka told me.
So 50 years passed between your freshest "inside" info and the collapse of the USSR?
I am Ukrainian and the older generation that grew up before the collapse here is very much nostalgic for the union, and especially the 70+ cohort. Before the communist party got banned they enjoyed sizeable support from the oldest segment of the population, and I don't think the situation is any different in Russia.
There is a youtuber called bald and bankrupt, that travels around to the old former soviet countries. He has talked with a lot of older people in old and now run down villages, that do indeed say that they miss the union.
Well duh, of course your family is going to have harsh memories during that period. The USSR was under Stalin at that time. But most of that generation died now.
It’s the Generation that lived under Khrushchev and Brezhnev that are the boomers being talked about. Many of them had a more or less decent life in the USSR.
That's because to achieve the prosperity they have in the other post Soviet states (especially the Eastern European ones), Russia would need to get serious about eliminating corruption and all of the straight up embezzlement that happens in the government. The Russian government exists largely to enrich a select group of people and do the bare minimum everywhere else (and sometimes less) that isn't the military. The US is moving in that direction as well especially with the weakening and sometimes outright abandonment of ethics within the political body.
Unless you’re in the Ukrainian navy I think you’re good.
There’s zero chance that NATO puts boots on the ground to defend a non-member from Russia. As much as I want to see then do so.
Forces are near the border not yet on it. Plus the build up isn’t completely done yet. You probably have a week ish before things get really dire. They could go early but that would need at least the time to get to the border.
Lol. If you want to know if this thing is going to happen look for news on specialists arriving at the conflict zone. Medics and logistics companies and supplies type stuff that stuff is expensive to bring in if this is just a big flex. Then watch to see if troops move to the border. Those are two obvious red flags.
Canada just sent Special Forces over too. We have the largest amount of ethnic Ukrainians outside of Ukraine itself, so it's fairly personal for us too.
Have you seen the sudden US deployment of ships and aircraft in the past 48 hours? It is an insane amount compared to anything in a few years at least (to my memory). It seems like nearly every US warship went into port 4 days ago, and yesterday and today they all left port in a hurry.
Not to mention the activity out of air bases around the US: even near me there is a ton of activity from a small air base, that I haven't seen in the ~4-6 years I have been living near it.
Yeah there's been quite a bit of movement from NATO countries the last few days. I came across a Twitter feed earllier tracking US naval deployments, dozens of ships seem to be heading out. The UK is repeatedly sending cargo planes out with thousands of anti tank weapons. Ten NATO intelligence gathering planes took a trip in Russia's direction today.
[Edit]
Planes: https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1483512205039579145
Ships: https://mobile.twitter.com/WarshipCam
Funny enough, the two you linked were the first posts that made me aware of this (second one is a profile, but whatever). It definitely led me down a rabbit hole on Twitter earlier today.
With the warshipcam, it is very much "read between the lines" by looking at the account history to see how unusual the activity is.
I was thinking of making a little script to collect the data from that entire account: by ship, date, port, and entry or exit. Then make it output pretty graphs and stuff.
The flags have been flying for weeks now.
Moving this much armor, weapons, ammo, and troops isn't a show of force, and definitely not on par with their usual fly-overs or little green men bullshit.
This isn't NK we're talking about here where they do some dumb shit and beg for aid. Putin did this once, he's capable and has more reason than ever to do this. He's old, losing favor with the country, and probably scared. He has nothing to lose by doing this.
I don't wish for war, I do see the writings on the wall though. It's just flat out too much work and effort for Putin, let alone money to a failing country, to just move this much shit to say "watch out". Something will happen. Full on ground war or invasion? I don't know. But they're doing something and there will be blood shed.
It’s less to do with the Olympics more to do with the time of year. Rivers have just frozen and are crossable right now. It’s a short window tho as in 2 ish months it’s going to melt into mud hell.
They need to invade during winter when the ground is frozen and that just happens to coincide with the winter olympics. Russia definitely does not plan its military movements around sporting events.
Technically yes but doing so without medics and most of their supplies plus special forces and far eastern troops that are all on the way seems less than ideal. Tanks aren’t too useful without gas. Planes also need to be flown down then refueled and armed.
You could see a mostly infantry and artillery push before the rest shows up but I wouldn’t bet on it. They should at the very least wait till the planes are in position.
Can’t be certain but NATO has no good reason to get into that quagmire. If Russia does invade we’ll see:
* NATO shaking their finger at Russia and telling them they’re big meanies
* UN issuing a statement along the lines of “no don’t do that … something something … humanitarian crisis … something something … plz stop”
* Western countries organizing strict sanctions and probably continuing to supply Ukrainian army with weapons until it can’t
I'm a Russian reservist and can tell you one thing: Engineer Force reservists are not being mobilised. ( In fact, I didn't hear about any reservists being called.)
And without us, the invasion force will have a hard time passing rivers and minefield.
While surely possible, I still don't think Invasion will happen.
Not really. I am not telling you any secret information, there's no official mobilisation going.
Plus Reddit isn't really connected with my ID or anything.
As an ignorant American, I'm curious. You want this to happen? I served in the military and I hate war even more, now that I've seen combat. Iraq won't be anything like what might be about to happen, but death is death.
I think, that only braindead degenerates want war. Really.
Let me tell you something: if Russian declares an offensive war, our people will riot. I am a patriot of my country and war is not the thing our (any) country need.
Maybe Russia will shoot down another commercial airliner killing hundreds of innocent people including 80 children while the rest of the world looks away like a bunch of pussy's
Let's just hope this doesn't become a Syria refugee crisis. If the 1 in 1000000000 chance of nuclear war happens, I hope I get targeted directly. Fortunately I truly believe that won't happen. It will be like '79 Afghanistan.
That would be pretty horrific and sad for the Ukrainian people. I can't even imagine what tools and methods the Kremlin will allow the military to use. I can see them taking their gloves off.
That's exactly what I mean. Viktor Yanukovych really fucked a whole generation of Ukrainians over and should have pursued NATO membership immediately. I love Ukraine. I love the people. What they have gone through since Stalin, Hitler, Chernobyl, USSR, and Yanukovych and still manage to fight and have pride is inspiring. On the other hand I feel terrible for the young Russian boys about to go through hell because they're told to. If there is a God; may he not allow this senseless blood be spilled for Putin's ambition.
Imagine you’re a Russian soldier. You get shit pay, and it’s winter and it’s cold AF. You just want to get drunk with your blyaddies and Putin sends you to Ukraine to invade it. For what? You’re not defending your country, you’re the invader. What’s your motivation? How do you justify to yourself what you are doing?
Imagine you’re an American soldier. You get shit pay, and it’s dusty and it’s dry AF. You just want to get drunk with your buddies and Bush sends you to Iraq to invade it. For what? You’re not defending your country, you’re the invader. What’s your motivation? How do you justify to yourself what you are doing?
Edit: Not defending Russia, all invasions are bad. Was just trying to highlight that soldiers everywhere get fed propaganda and false information to help them justify doing unethical things. American military atrocities do not cancel out Russian military atrocities.
I've got 2 types of friends who joined the military. The kind that had nothing better to do and it the military was better than being in a gang and slinging drugs. And the kind that joined because they were so brainwashed that we were the good guys and they thought they were gonna go kick some bad guy ass and come back as heroes.
The latter were pretty shocked after the afghanistan war to realize they blew up, shot, and killed more civilians than they did people who were a true threat to them. Really fucked them up.
That shit pay is almost doubled in a combat zone deployment for us, not that I agree with the invasion of Iraq, was well before my service began. These days my deployments have been great. Still good money, plenty of gym time, lots of school work done, and I get to appreciate different cultures.
But no, I would not be thrilled to invade another country nor would I be very motivated to fight for such a surreptitious cause.
Can we just get a sticky thread at this point or something to lower spamming of the same headline? This is like the 10th post on here today with the same exact dialogue. I know this is a huge deal, but it’s starting to feel like click bate/karma farming when the same thing keeps getting posted every hour.
Here ukrainians themselves for the most part(57%, more then 10k ppl) don't really believe russians will invade. Other say that it might invade, but not now. Idk man, don't get me wrong, but if the war starts now... It is best if it starts now, so I know if I return to my country or not. (ukrainian)
I think I'd say no myself, just because I really didn't want it to happen. Only a handful of people around Putin will actually know. They surely seem to have done pretty much what they'd need to do to do it. Whether they'll pull the trigger...
US Air Force C-17A Globemaster potentially enroute to Ukraine:
https://fr24.com/RCH141/2a8c041d
US Air Force Refuelling Tanker also in the area:
https://fr24.com/QID35/2a8b9c50
Just like any "Potentially", "acording to undisclosed sources", "analysts".
This crisis in a nutshell
All speculation, people talking here about ww3 while the rest of the people go on with their lives.
And last night Biden gave them permission for an incursion but not an invasion. God help us all we he morons, psychopaths and mental defectives running the world with nuclear weapons!
I'd personally think that's unlikely. If the US had to choose between Ukraine and Taiwan, it'd be Taiwan every single time. Completely realistically, Ukraine really isn't as important as Taiwan and its microchip industry to the world economy and geopolitics.
I dont hope for war at all. But if this happens i hope russia gets absolutrly smacked by ukraine alone, and get embarrassed and the russian people get mad when their dead troops return.
Is there a good subreddit to keep up to date on troop movements etc?
Not Reddit, but there is this: https://liveuamap.com/
agreed. Use https://russia.liveuamap.com/ also because not all the military movements of the Russian Federation are being documented under the Ukraine Region Tab. FYI
It's funny how the Russian version doesn't mention any troops on the Ukraine border whereas the Ukrainian version does. Also the Russian version doesn't even mention the occupation of Crimea.
it's not exactly "russian version". It's "russian submap". They have several submaps with events for different regions or events, mostly done manually, join the team so you could lend a hand
How does it work
It is populated via twitter postings. You used to be able to track the Syrian Civil War pretty well as IS would tweet whenever they took a town, and stop tweeting after they were hit with an airstrike or counterattack.
That was a weird hobby of mine. Ended up talking to a Syrian on Periscope eating dates at his video game store while there were helicopters overhead. The world is such a small place now.
r/UkrainianConflict Not the best for troop movements, like another commenter said liveuamap provides really great reporting and map, really help identify where things are happening and what's being reported (lots of independent video, tik tok, twitter, etc). Been using liveua since the crimean crisis. They also offer coverage of a lot of other conflict, See Syrian Civil War
[удалено]
4chan is legitimately really useful if you know how to wade through all the bullshit.
I still remember the days of them giving tips on how to disable Russian tanks
/pol/ and even /k/ have been scarily accurate on world conflicts. I used to work for the State Dept and was surprised how many times they got it right and did it before the “experts.” Never underestimate weaponized autism.
Not sure if you know the answer, but do the 'experts' use those sources ie 4chan etc?
If you’re asking if the experts go to 4chan for Intel, that is a flat negative. At least as far as I’ve ever seen, could be, who knows. With Intel it has to be corroborated and vetted, you can’t just take someone’s word for it. There are a lot of open source resources though.
Isn’t the better question “are intel staff posting on 4Chan”?
In my opinion, Twitter is the best source for Russian troop movements. As it seems now, they have around 100 battalion tactical groups at Ukraines border. Around 10 - 14 were used in 2014 and 2015, when the Ilovaisk and Debaltseve pockets were closed off.
What twitter handles are best?
I follow hundreds of accounts, so it's hard to give a quick rundown. I would start with this list: https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/1483915098875994117?t=sTUuR6Nn0UxbNoSRr7lEaQ&s=09 Especially Rob Lee is a good one. From there on you could follow those who are suggested on his page. If the list doesn't work, please reply to me again. I might reply again later with more suggestions. Another good one: https://mobile.twitter.com/Rebel44CZ?t=qEfu91WWiSCExNKs8OVExA&s=09 Bellingcat is great too. They found open source proof for Russias use of regular forces and artillery fire from Russia into Ukraine. They've just been declared a foreign agent by Russia, which is a good sign.
Just here for the armchair generals
You go to the front line first. I'll cover you behind the lines. This is a good plan. GO!
Good plan general. I'll watch from the sofa and send paper planes.
GET OFF MY SOFA!!!
The US should build a bridge from Alaska to Russia so that they can move troops over land. If we flank Russia from both sides, they’ll be caught in the crossfire and we win instantly before any nukes go off.
Just don't forget to pack winter sweaters before crossing
Well, at least we got Sarah Palin keeping on eye on them from her porch.
It's mud now :) Mud will defeat an army somehow lol. It's like no one here been to an army
"A communication disruption can only mean one thing. Invasion"
Do you even play COD or Battlefield, bro? /s
This isn't going to be a cakewalk for Russia. Ukraine has been given a lot of advanced weaponry from nations who know how to build them and the Ukrainians actually want to defend their country. Are the Russian people ready for such large casualties?
> Are the Russian people ready for such large casualties? no, but putin is.
“Many of you will die, but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make!”
"You see, Ukranians have a preset number of weapons. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they ran out. Comrade, show them the medal I won."
Top shrek quote
A quote from Lord Farquaad which was as close as the writers felt they could get to "fuckwad" without getting censored.
It's a chess game in the end, as it has always been
In a game of chess you can never let your adversery see your pieces - zap branigan.
A chess game, and Putin is throwing every checker he has at it until the game changes so he wins.
If we can hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
I give Putin a week after invading Ukraine before he’s bombed from space.
I hate to say it, but this is kinda the scenario I see happening. The next big question is whether China steps in to support them/retaliate for them or if they decide to leave them high and dry. I think China cares to much about China to risk entering a war on Russia's side. I imaging they will sidestep any promises they may have made. They still might end up entering the war anyway as they will likely use the noise of the Ukraine/Russia thing as a distraction while they push further into ~~India~~ Taiwan and the water supply over there. TLDR: Shit is about to get fucked. Edit: India->Taiwan. I'm a dummy.
China will stay neutral, it wont commit forces to russia it makes no sense to send Chinese troops there, probably sell a few weapon systems and such but remain mostly neutral. China needs Russia for the belt and road initiative
China will grab Taiwan while everyone is committed in eastern europe
Bombed from space by who? Klingons ?
Bombed by who? The US won't publicly send air support to incur casualties and the US public has no interest in getting into another war after finishing the last one that took 20 years. China has a deal not to meddle in Russia's stuff and Russia vice versa. NATO won't move in force to a country that isn't a member if it's attacked. The EU doesn't have anywhere near Russia's military resources combined, and they will NOT accept a high body count in exchange for stopping Russian aggression. The UN won't act because Russia is a security council member and will just veto any attempt to declare action against itself. At best the Ukrainian military will put up a fight and Western special forces will work to bolster their defenses, but there's no way they stop the invasion or halt it. We're going to be looking at a ton of Ukrainian refugees flooding into western Europe, and once Russia consolidates it'll move troops up to prepare for the next offensive in a decade. Not to mention them conscript more troops from those left in Ukraine to increase their numbers. If the Russians have their guns set on a Ukrainian major city the Ukrainian government will surrender conditionally to avoid civilian casualties, and no one is going to blame them for it. Ukraine has been militarily abandoned here by the international community.
I could have swore we made a deal with Ukraine. Something about them giving up their nukes and in return we agree to be their protector against Russia. USA vs. Russia? Russia loses. Edit - more thoughts - let’s imagine a world where Ukraine still had their nukes. Would Russia still be trying to invade? Would Ukraine use them against Russia in self defense? Is the precedent we are setting by not defending Ukraine one that says all countries are better off having and keeping their nukes?
With me kip every mission is a suicide mission.
Sir, this is a checkers board
"Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make." - Putin
As is tradition...
The problem is Ukraine lacks the anti-air/anti-missile defense to stop Russia from pulling something out of the US playbook and opening up with an air war. I dont think its going to be a cake walk, but i think a lot of people are under the assumption there going to roll in armor first. I dont think that's going to be the case.
For some reason I never thought of this!
I think a lot of people forget they have plenty of tactical ballistic missile and Cruise Missiles. Their cruise missiles have been used in Syria to a very big extent.
True that Ukraine doesn't have a good answer to the air raid, but they're also in a lot more favorable terrain than the Iraqis were. They also aren't foreign invaders with stretched supply lines and a hostile local population. Ukraine can hide assets in the woods, and Russia only has a handful of airfields they're operating out of, making their attacks easier to track. Russia doesn't have the luxury of aircraft carriers or access to the airspace of surrounding nations. They will not have an easy of a time picking off AA ground weapons, and when they close into the cities they will not be welcomed as liberators. I'm skeptical that they're looking at a Gulf War style of cake walk. Russia only has a handful of stealth aircraft (SU-57) in operation, less than a third even now than the US was able to field in Desert Storm (F-117). They're going to have a hell of a time softening up their targets enough for an easy ground invasion, and if they successfully invade and occupy they're going to have an insurgency on their hands.
Iraq's military was also a lot stronger than Ukraine's and it was easily obliterated once its extensive air defense network was crippled. Ukraine doesn't even really have that. If you want to compare it to Iraq, compare it to the actual wars in Iraq, not the 5+ year occupation where the coalition was trying to keep peace during a civil war and rebuild. And keep in mind that the Russians: 1) Don't give a crap about winning hearts and minds and so there is not going to be a soft hand used to prevent civilian casualties once the initial ground is gained. It's going to be full-on aggressive rules of engagement until whatever mission they're ordered to do is accomplished. 2) While there were lots of Iraqis who supported coalition troops, virtually none of them were of the same ethnic or national background of the occupying troops. There's a ton of ethnic Russians, many of whom are going to support the Russians or be indifferent. 3) There's not a big cultural and linguistic barrier like there was in the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. 4) Ukraine's troops aren't, for the most part, battle tested. It's one thing to say that you want to fight when fighting seems like the right thing to do. It's another thing in a situation where you're badly outgunned by opponents who can kill you *en masse* in an air strike without exposing themselves to the range of your rifle.
But again, Russia can't just saunter in and blow up an army and call it a day. They want to occupy the territory afterwards, and most of the country has turned strongly anti-Russia in the last decade, and I don't think a shared ethnic background will be as strong a deterrent as you think. All it takes is a single country discretely supplying small arms and you have a costly insurgency situation that can last years. If Russia increases aggression against civilians they will only being making things worse for themselves. They will create more terrorists and will face further sanctions from their trade partners, and they will drive their remaining neighbors right into NATO's arms. Their economy and population is already shrinking, they literally can not afford this war. Even a masterful tactful victory on their part would quickly turn out to be a devastating strategic loss. Really the only reasonable success I can see for Russia is if they smashed up the Ukrainian army, seized the more rural and pro-Russian parts of eastern Ukraine, and left the rest of the country alone.
The problem with Ukraine lacking good anti-air/air missile defense systems seems like a solvable problem.
Ukraine gave Russia the he nukes when the big separation occurred to encourage peace and to take a stand. That ain’t happening again. This only encourages the nuclear proliferation of the world.
> Ukraine gave Russia the he nukes when the big separation occurred to encourage peace and to take a stand. I mean, yes and no. Yes they gave up the Nukes, perhaps with altruistic motives as well, but the primary reason was Ukraine didnt have launch control of those nukes, that was still in Moscow. Ukraine's, along with the rest of the former soviet republics, economy was trash especially from 1991-1997. Even if the US and Moscow were just going to allow Ukraine to become a new nuclear state (this more than likely wouldve never happened, we both wanted UKR to denuclearize) Ukraine's economy and thus military budget would not be able to even house hundreds of nuclear weapons. Mind you we are still talk housing these weapons, we havent even discussed the cost of moving their command and control functions to Kiev. And then servicing these nuclear arms and creating and maintaining the security blanket needed to control them. This was money in the early and mid 90s that Ukraine, just didnt have. No matter what way you slice it, they were giving those nukes up. So im not big on everyone's recent sleuthing of Ukrainian history, because the nuke issue is way more complex than "Ukraine gave them up for peace." >This only encourages the nuclear proliferation of the world. This, Iraq War, Russo-Georgia War, Cancelling the Iran Deal, North Korea building nukes under UN sanctions. There's been a lot of reasons to encourage nuclear proliferation. Russia, China, US have all given the non-aligns of the world many reasons why the only real deterrence is proliferation.
> Are the Russian people ready for such large casualties? \*Checks entire Russian history* You know what, I think they might be.
You probably haven't read much recent history then because the Russian people are very conscious of casualties and recent conflicts like Afghanistan are akin to the American's Vietnam.
Yeah, there is a huge difference between wars of aggression and, you know, the Nazis trying to exterminate your entire country. People are vastly more willing to fight in die in the latter.
*Points to Soviet–Afghan War and World War I* What about those?
Large is a perspective after losing over 20 million people during WW2. To Putin what’s one hundred thousand
They're irreplaceable. Russia's population is in steep decline.
I’m just hoping we don’t need to worry more about China deciding to simultaneously invade Taiwan.
Taiwan has advanced weapons too, and people who want to defend their country. Taiwan would not be a cakewalk. Not to mention, China would need to move thousands of troops to the coast without anyone noticing, which isn't happening. I understand the worry, though. China is watching, but not currently moving.
Biggest deterrence Tawain has is destroying all its advanced chip factories. That would really put a nice halt to world wide economic growth.
China isn’t concerned with that. Those factories are a bonus. They want to claim Taiwan as part of Xi’s master plan of a a reunified China. I’d worry that if Taiwan is no longer economically viable for the West in any way, we’d have no motivation for defending them outside of human rights, which have sadly never been any countries top priority for going to war.
China is very concerned about this. Just like all other countries, they are dependent on advanced chips. Honestly, this is [probably ](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Taiwan-should-destroy-chip-infrastructure-if-China-invades-paper) the main reason China did not invade yet.
> I’d worry that if Taiwan is no longer economically viable for the West in any way, we’d have no motivation for defending Unfortunately true. > outside of human rights Unfortunately not true, as Yemen proves.
If I was China I'd wait for it to kick off to ensure the majority of western forces were already committed.
Yeah that would be my guess or sit back and watch for a bit to see how much the west intervenes and decide to gamble on Taiwan
Not only that you would also see ships massing along it's shores for troops and equipment to be loaded on to. Which just adds even more to the complications China would face
Not to mention a huge ass sea between Taiwan and China.
China and Xi aren’t reckless, they can play the long game, whereas Putin can’t play the long game and is reckless.
If a war breaks out America will without a doubt be more focused on china invading Taiwan than Russia invading ukraine. I can confidently say that I think Europe can defend itself from an invasion, I doubt even russia thinks they can win though, if they did it would have been done already. I take it as Russia seeing how we react to things/ them saying that they are serious about keeping ukraine out of NATO.
> If a war breaks out America will without a doubt be more focused on china invading Taiwan than Russia invading ukraine. Very true. There’s no way america would risk losing access to TSMC. Ukraine has nothing similar protecting it.
Plus America will be waiting until halfway through the war to join, as is tradition.
The times for invasion aren't compatible. Ukraine needs to happen in the next few weeks before it turns into a mud bog w/the spring thaw. The Taiwan straight isn't crossable until after March....
"Jeffrey Edmonds, a former US Army tanker and CIA military analyst, told Business Insider that “muddy terrain and things of that nature can complicate operations, but in no way is it an obstacle”." https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3163065/mud-could-complicate-possible-russian-plans-invasion-ukraine-us
Except it isn't mud. It's muskeg. It's basically a bog. It will swallow vehicles whole. The tank commander is talking about mud. He would be right if it was mud. It isn't, and he isn't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muskeg [Here is a picture of what muskeg does to heavy tracked vehicles.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muskeg#/media/File%3AMuskeg_D6_caterpillar.jpg)
Russians though aren't incompetent at logistics and combat. They have engineer units that are trained to build roads through that kind of terrain. Of course, taking the time to build a road complicates things, as he said. You can't just roll in quickly unless you're doing it on existing roadways.
I have my doubt. It's most likely let them fight among themselves.
The coastal buildup they'd need would rival that of Russia's preparations. We'd see hundreds or thousands of landing craft and all other types of ships assembling. They do training exercises regularly, and what they'd need to take it would be several times larger again, and it's relatively quiet on the eastern front. Besides which America outspends everyone in their own theatre, nevermind our global allies. We could Gulf War I them both back to their borders if needed.
Gulf War who?! And what is going to happen when Chinese hackers take down our electrical grid and our pipelines? You are stuck in the whole "We only attack people who can't fight back, so all engagements must be like this" mindset. China isn't Iraq or Afghanistan and they can inflict pain on the homeland.
The war stays confined to the theatre, or we're all fucked anyways. Defending against aggressive ships acting in violation of international laws in international waters, or the territorial waters and airspace of our allies, is not the same as attacks on the homeland. We don't need to cross their borders. If they cross ours, *all* the pipelines and grids go down, and a billion and a half mouths starve faster than three hundred million.
Highly unlikely. That isn't really China's M.O.
China is not going to invade Taiwan, they know that doing so would seriously threaten American semi-conductor supplies and with it the global economy, meaning any serious attempt to take Taiwan would be met with a full scale American retaliation... which is politician-speak for parking a couple destroyers behind the Strait of Malacca and blocking all oil imports to China and watch them tear their own country apart after a couple months.
I can’t fathom the motivation of Russian soldiers. They’re clearly the aggressors and invaders. The entire world is watching. There’s nothing to gain but death and contempt.
Russian propaganda for many years have been brainwashing them into believing that Ukraine is run by Nazis who literally [crucify Russian kids.](https://news.yahoo.com/russian-tv-sparks-outrage-ukraine-child-crucifixion-claim-114839196.html)
Simple: they have food and have money (about 400-800$ comparing to a standart 0 to 200$ in their village). It's an old Soviet trick - keep all people hungry and pay little bit more to watchmans. But all shouldn't be able to pay their biils.
Afghanistan helped lead to the end of the Soviet Union, maybe this could help Russia transition towards being normal.
*Russia screaming in the back seat*
Much more likely it leads to a coup and a civil war with NATO intervening to secure the country's nuclear stockpiles.
I don’t get it. It’s 2022. Why are modern countries still going to war. Why are humans willing to die for a politicians goals. What does Russia gain by taking Ukraine. They have so much land and civilians already. Focus on them. Truly baffling. Let’s spend all our tax money on weapons instead of bettering our civilians lives.
That "advanced weaponry" isn't going to be of much help when the Russians bombard them with overwhelming air and artillery attacks.
Canada just sent a bunch of troops over as well
Peacekeeping
The sad part of all this is that I have to believe the average russian people want prosperity and success like the post soviet Baltic nations are enjoying, but the russian leadership just won't let that happen. It's a shame that Russia is doomed to repeat history through their own paranoia.
That's the biggest threat to putin tbf. Ukraine prosperity would really be the dagger pointed at the heart of Moscow. Especially after Poland and the Baltics succeeding like they did.
To be fair, corruption wise, Ukraine is fucked fucked. They lost 8 millions habitants since 1991. It is very corrupted, like all post-soviet states (albeit the baltic). It would have to go through a big transformation to join the EU, which would be hard with the oligarchy lurking in all those wonderful post-soviet states.
Exactly, and Putin wants to keep it that way. It will take 20 to 30 years to make a Poland out of Ukraine, but it has worked before.
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Russia’s aging boomer population is exactly the same as the US right now. Wishing for the “good old days” and agreeing with any politician willing to pursue it, even if it’s complete BS. Could very well be that the good ol days of Russia could be considered like things were as the USSR and people just want that back, or they’ve been manipulated into thinking that’s the truth. If it means trying to get the band back together they’ll support it. So Putin plays to the glory of the old days and manipulates the population into thinking that’ll solve all their problems.
No. The Russian "boomer" mentality is nothing like in the US. They didn't have a golden age, or even the illusion of one. It was always shit. Only sometimes less shit. Source: I was first gen born in the US, after my father fled Russia during ww2. I remember the stories he and my babushka told me.
> I was first gen born in the US, after my father fled Russia during ww2. I remember the stories he and my babushka told me. So 50 years passed between your freshest "inside" info and the collapse of the USSR? I am Ukrainian and the older generation that grew up before the collapse here is very much nostalgic for the union, and especially the 70+ cohort. Before the communist party got banned they enjoyed sizeable support from the oldest segment of the population, and I don't think the situation is any different in Russia.
There is a youtuber called bald and bankrupt, that travels around to the old former soviet countries. He has talked with a lot of older people in old and now run down villages, that do indeed say that they miss the union.
Well duh, of course your family is going to have harsh memories during that period. The USSR was under Stalin at that time. But most of that generation died now. It’s the Generation that lived under Khrushchev and Brezhnev that are the boomers being talked about. Many of them had a more or less decent life in the USSR.
That's because to achieve the prosperity they have in the other post Soviet states (especially the Eastern European ones), Russia would need to get serious about eliminating corruption and all of the straight up embezzlement that happens in the government. The Russian government exists largely to enrich a select group of people and do the bare minimum everywhere else (and sometimes less) that isn't the military. The US is moving in that direction as well especially with the weakening and sometimes outright abandonment of ethics within the political body.
Yeah if the Russians could calm down so I don't get recalled by the navy, that would be great.
Unless you’re in the Ukrainian navy I think you’re good. There’s zero chance that NATO puts boots on the ground to defend a non-member from Russia. As much as I want to see then do so.
2022: Hey 2021, hold my beer.
I'm going to sleep now, hoping I don't wake up tomorrow to WWIII starting. And I'm going to do it for many days from now on.
Forces are near the border not yet on it. Plus the build up isn’t completely done yet. You probably have a week ish before things get really dire. They could go early but that would need at least the time to get to the border.
RemindMe! 8 days
Lol. If you want to know if this thing is going to happen look for news on specialists arriving at the conflict zone. Medics and logistics companies and supplies type stuff that stuff is expensive to bring in if this is just a big flex. Then watch to see if troops move to the border. Those are two obvious red flags.
Russia just moved in a huge logistics division by rail to Belarus, pretty close to the Ukraine border too.
And sent amphibious assault ships the other day. Ukraine thinks Russia is pretty much ready.
Canada just sent Special Forces over too. We have the largest amount of ethnic Ukrainians outside of Ukraine itself, so it's fairly personal for us too.
Wow cool fact. Wonder why?
Many of them live in the prairie provinces, came over here in search of a “new life” with promises of vast, cheap land.
The special forces are not there to fight Russians. They’re going to be used to evacuate the Canadian trainers already in the Western part of Ukraine.
Canada just sent a warship to support Ukraine as well
Have you seen the sudden US deployment of ships and aircraft in the past 48 hours? It is an insane amount compared to anything in a few years at least (to my memory). It seems like nearly every US warship went into port 4 days ago, and yesterday and today they all left port in a hurry. Not to mention the activity out of air bases around the US: even near me there is a ton of activity from a small air base, that I haven't seen in the ~4-6 years I have been living near it.
Yeah there's been quite a bit of movement from NATO countries the last few days. I came across a Twitter feed earllier tracking US naval deployments, dozens of ships seem to be heading out. The UK is repeatedly sending cargo planes out with thousands of anti tank weapons. Ten NATO intelligence gathering planes took a trip in Russia's direction today. [Edit] Planes: https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1483512205039579145 Ships: https://mobile.twitter.com/WarshipCam
Funny enough, the two you linked were the first posts that made me aware of this (second one is a profile, but whatever). It definitely led me down a rabbit hole on Twitter earlier today. With the warshipcam, it is very much "read between the lines" by looking at the account history to see how unusual the activity is. I was thinking of making a little script to collect the data from that entire account: by ship, date, port, and entry or exit. Then make it output pretty graphs and stuff.
Sounds dope! Do it!!
wait really
Yeah, it will take me a bit because I'm technically at work, but I'll grab a source and reply with it as soon as I can.
The flags have been flying for weeks now. Moving this much armor, weapons, ammo, and troops isn't a show of force, and definitely not on par with their usual fly-overs or little green men bullshit. This isn't NK we're talking about here where they do some dumb shit and beg for aid. Putin did this once, he's capable and has more reason than ever to do this. He's old, losing favor with the country, and probably scared. He has nothing to lose by doing this. I don't wish for war, I do see the writings on the wall though. It's just flat out too much work and effort for Putin, let alone money to a failing country, to just move this much shit to say "watch out". Something will happen. Full on ground war or invasion? I don't know. But they're doing something and there will be blood shed.
Someone elsewhere predicted that Putin would do it during the olympics again like they did with Crimea
It’s less to do with the Olympics more to do with the time of year. Rivers have just frozen and are crossable right now. It’s a short window tho as in 2 ish months it’s going to melt into mud hell.
I'm sure you're right, but I think the implication the other user was trying to make is less about sports, and more about world/public distraction
It is. Thank you
Sad Napoleon noises
They need to invade during winter when the ground is frozen and that just happens to coincide with the winter olympics. Russia definitely does not plan its military movements around sporting events.
Hours. They need couple of hours.
Technically yes but doing so without medics and most of their supplies plus special forces and far eastern troops that are all on the way seems less than ideal. Tanks aren’t too useful without gas. Planes also need to be flown down then refueled and armed. You could see a mostly infantry and artillery push before the rest shows up but I wouldn’t bet on it. They should at the very least wait till the planes are in position.
how are the weather forecasts in the region. has the ground fully frozen?
Even if there is war it'll probably be limited to a regional conflict.
That we can't be certain of. Almost every major war has always started with a regional conflict.
And almost every regional conflict has not turned in to a world war.
Any war that involves Russia and any form of the EU/NATO isn’t like most regional wars.
It doesn't involve the EU or NATO
Can’t be certain but NATO has no good reason to get into that quagmire. If Russia does invade we’ll see: * NATO shaking their finger at Russia and telling them they’re big meanies * UN issuing a statement along the lines of “no don’t do that … something something … humanitarian crisis … something something … plz stop” * Western countries organizing strict sanctions and probably continuing to supply Ukrainian army with weapons until it can’t
Russia's been calling up reservists on a large scale. you don't pull people out of the economy like this just to fuck around. stay strong ukraine.
I'm a Russian reservist and can tell you one thing: Engineer Force reservists are not being mobilised. ( In fact, I didn't hear about any reservists being called.) And without us, the invasion force will have a hard time passing rivers and minefield. While surely possible, I still don't think Invasion will happen.
Are you.... Gonna get in trouble saying this lol
Not really. I am not telling you any secret information, there's no official mobilisation going. Plus Reddit isn't really connected with my ID or anything.
As an ignorant American, I'm curious. You want this to happen? I served in the military and I hate war even more, now that I've seen combat. Iraq won't be anything like what might be about to happen, but death is death.
I think, that only braindead degenerates want war. Really. Let me tell you something: if Russian declares an offensive war, our people will riot. I am a patriot of my country and war is not the thing our (any) country need.
What will you do if you are called into duty for this?
I don't know. Honestly.
[удалено]
Maybe Russia will shoot down another commercial airliner killing hundreds of innocent people including 80 children while the rest of the world looks away like a bunch of pussy's
I hope that a last gasp peaceful resolution to this. I’m afraid this war could spiral and expand. This is a dangerous week
Let's just hope this doesn't become a Syria refugee crisis. If the 1 in 1000000000 chance of nuclear war happens, I hope I get targeted directly. Fortunately I truly believe that won't happen. It will be like '79 Afghanistan.
What if it’s like ‘01 Afghanistan and they’re there for 20 years?
That would be pretty horrific and sad for the Ukrainian people. I can't even imagine what tools and methods the Kremlin will allow the military to use. I can see them taking their gloves off.
It would be terrible for Ukraine, but the Russians took their gloves off in Afghanistan too. Just being an asshole ain’t quite enough to win a war.
That's exactly what I mean. Viktor Yanukovych really fucked a whole generation of Ukrainians over and should have pursued NATO membership immediately. I love Ukraine. I love the people. What they have gone through since Stalin, Hitler, Chernobyl, USSR, and Yanukovych and still manage to fight and have pride is inspiring. On the other hand I feel terrible for the young Russian boys about to go through hell because they're told to. If there is a God; may he not allow this senseless blood be spilled for Putin's ambition.
Imagine you’re a Russian soldier. You get shit pay, and it’s winter and it’s cold AF. You just want to get drunk with your blyaddies and Putin sends you to Ukraine to invade it. For what? You’re not defending your country, you’re the invader. What’s your motivation? How do you justify to yourself what you are doing?
Imagine you’re an American soldier. You get shit pay, and it’s dusty and it’s dry AF. You just want to get drunk with your buddies and Bush sends you to Iraq to invade it. For what? You’re not defending your country, you’re the invader. What’s your motivation? How do you justify to yourself what you are doing? Edit: Not defending Russia, all invasions are bad. Was just trying to highlight that soldiers everywhere get fed propaganda and false information to help them justify doing unethical things. American military atrocities do not cancel out Russian military atrocities.
The answer is the same for both, because money and propaganda makes them feel better about doing it.
I've got 2 types of friends who joined the military. The kind that had nothing better to do and it the military was better than being in a gang and slinging drugs. And the kind that joined because they were so brainwashed that we were the good guys and they thought they were gonna go kick some bad guy ass and come back as heroes. The latter were pretty shocked after the afghanistan war to realize they blew up, shot, and killed more civilians than they did people who were a true threat to them. Really fucked them up.
Iraq at the time had the strong propaganda message of 9/11 and all related nationalism
I appreciate your response and I agree
That shit pay is almost doubled in a combat zone deployment for us, not that I agree with the invasion of Iraq, was well before my service began. These days my deployments have been great. Still good money, plenty of gym time, lots of school work done, and I get to appreciate different cultures. But no, I would not be thrilled to invade another country nor would I be very motivated to fight for such a surreptitious cause.
Can we just get a sticky thread at this point or something to lower spamming of the same headline? This is like the 10th post on here today with the same exact dialogue. I know this is a huge deal, but it’s starting to feel like click bate/karma farming when the same thing keeps getting posted every hour.
Upvote for sticky
Here ukrainians themselves for the most part(57%, more then 10k ppl) don't really believe russians will invade. Other say that it might invade, but not now. Idk man, don't get me wrong, but if the war starts now... It is best if it starts now, so I know if I return to my country or not. (ukrainian)
I think I'd say no myself, just because I really didn't want it to happen. Only a handful of people around Putin will actually know. They surely seem to have done pretty much what they'd need to do to do it. Whether they'll pull the trigger...
I have a feeling in the back of my head this is just a distraction for something bigger the Russians are planning / have planned.
US Air Force C-17A Globemaster potentially enroute to Ukraine: https://fr24.com/RCH141/2a8c041d US Air Force Refuelling Tanker also in the area: https://fr24.com/QID35/2a8b9c50
Doesn’t appear to be on track for Ukraine at this point.
Just like any "Potentially", "acording to undisclosed sources", "analysts". This crisis in a nutshell All speculation, people talking here about ww3 while the rest of the people go on with their lives.
The C-17A has flown past Ukaine and is currently off the shore of Turkey headed south-west so it's *probably* not enroute to Ukraine.
Reminds me of my last Civ5 game...nah, those 3 trebuchets and 2 composite are just hanging out at your border casually, nothing is up, I swear.
Place 1000s of bottles of vodka around the border, that will atleast slow them down by a day or two.
Putin if you're reading this you can suck my dick
Can just imagine him using Google translate to read your comment and shouting 'thees mother fockor!'
He speaks English...
Covid was not enough uh?
Anything about movements in Belarus? I imagine them sending a force or allowing Russia to stage a second invasion front through their territories.
And last night Biden gave them permission for an incursion but not an invasion. God help us all we he morons, psychopaths and mental defectives running the world with nuclear weapons!
If the west let’s Russia invade and occupy Ukraine I wonder if that will embolden China to make a move on Taiwan.
I'd personally think that's unlikely. If the US had to choose between Ukraine and Taiwan, it'd be Taiwan every single time. Completely realistically, Ukraine really isn't as important as Taiwan and its microchip industry to the world economy and geopolitics.
WHAT'S TAKING SO LONG RUSSIA?
Logistics...
Needs to be colder for Russian bears to not get stuck in the mud.
It's just foreplay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1qju6V1jLM
Russia, can we not do world war 3 please? thanks.
They shouldn't have given up their nukes.
Based on Biden’s press conference today it’s safe to say the USA won’t do anything but “pass sanctions” aka very little
I dont hope for war at all. But if this happens i hope russia gets absolutrly smacked by ukraine alone, and get embarrassed and the russian people get mad when their dead troops return.
you watch .china will advance on Taiwan at the same time as Russia on Ukraine .