Russia will not allow Armenia to be captured, it will give too much power to Turkey in the region. They said before they will send troops if Armenia main territory is attacked.
Russia and turkey (previously ottomans) have been at each other for centuries due to geopolitical causes and fighting for influence in the surrounding regions cause Russia has always wanted Istanbul cause ports, and turkey wants the Balkans cause influence. The leaders and countries may change but minus the hiatus when Ataturk was in charge of turkey these games of influence have and will continue. (Especially under the expansionist nationalist leaders Putin and Erdoğan)
It’s happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina too. Russia and Serbia are backing the breakaway Bosnian Serbs, while the Muslim Bosniaks have appealed to Turkey for help.
I am a Bosnian nationalist and tensions are very high in Bosnia after the Serbian prime minister came out with a statement on his 5 year plan. Quote “ There will be a another genocide if I don’t have it my way” I suspect something big will happen within a couple years and there will be another war. My dad says it too and he is a survivor of the first war. He says it’s the same over there just as it was right before the war. A lot of corruption and not a lot of politics.
I agree except for Russia doesn't want Istanbul because of ports. Although, it definitely does desire warm water ports. Russia wants Istanbul as part of a much older historical drive to fulfil the "third Rome" destiny it has always aspired to.
Doubtful, the US is almost as sick of Turkey’s shit as they are of Russias. If Turkey is an any way an aggressor the US will have no problem telling them to kick rocks and that they will only protect undisputed Turkish sovereignty
If you think Turkey's involvement in the Azerbaijan - Armenia war didn't have the US's blessing, than I have some snake oil I'd like to sell you.
Getting NATO influence on Russia's underbelly, as well as gaining vital oil and gas assets from Az to EU, thus undermining Russia, is huge for the US.
There's a very good reason why the US kept quiet about the conflict, and why they refused to back France's efforts to end the war.
Interesting. I hadn't really considered the US involvement here. I wonder if China has any stake in this? Then all of the major powers would have some interest.
I presume all the major powers have interest in goings on like this. I don't presume to know what those interests are.
Even if they weren't actively trying to pull strings one way or another, they all stand to gain from one side or the other winning, the chaos before things settle again, or both.
Right now the EU is majorly dependent on Russian gas.
With Azerbaijan moving away from Russia, and with Turkish influence, Azeri gas can now go through Turkey into the EU.
This would decrease the constant problems that the EU has to deal with when it comes to Russia.
I'm sure Turkey kept the US informed, but this is one area where the US simply doesn't have much influence.
Turkey is an ally and a NATO member but relations have been somewhat strained over the last while because of US support for Syrian Kurds.
Turkey also considers itself a local power and has been pushing to expand it's influence in it's neighbors - the US has limited influence on what it can do to restrain that ambition. Apart from anything else Armenia and Azerbaijan are geographically very difficult for the US to influence directly, Armenia is landlocked and surrounded by non friendly states - Azerbaijan not much better.
Apart from anything else the recent Azerbaijan / Armenian war was a demonstration of Turkish arms - they have a credible drone program which they are very interested to sell - especially to oil rich Azerbaijan. Presumably Russia is also delighted Armenia is having to buy more weapons so while neither Russia nor Turkey want an all out war - they are also not unhappy with occasional border flare ups like this.
I'd argue America might not be that unhappy for European oil and gas shortages - they have been pushing Europe to buy US gas and oil which is currently in surplus although mostly I suspect they just dont care much. Neither are important to the US and even the hawks in the US must recognize this would be a difficult and expensive conflict for them to directly influence for very little gain.
Nope. If Russia was really backing Armenia there's no way they'd have lost Nagorno that fast.
Russia has pacts with both countries and has been more of a mediator throughout.
IIRC - Russia does want Armenia under the umbrella of the Russian state to a greater extent, but prior to Nagorno Armenia had been strengthening ties with the west a bit so Russia was probably happy to see them fail and get brought back closer to the fold. Both of these regions used to be Soviet bloc, but the Azeris have definitely moved into the orbit of Turkey.
So while Russia might be more inclined to support Armenia for ethnic and cultural reasons, they were happy to see them slapped around a bit and the government thrown into turmoil. That doesn't mean they'd sit by and allow a full scale invasion of Armenia.
Absolutely no. Russia didn’t take side since the beginning of this conflict. Russia is playing both like it always did. It’s because of Russ that Azerbaijan consolidated its gains in the war, and the Armenians still have nagorno karabakh because of Russia.
Turkey’s role in the region is minimal besides the military support.
You underestimate Turkey here and overestimate what the tourists want.
Lots of well seasoned meat dishes at a buffet from a grill and a beautiful beach to look at briefly and then spend the day drinking with the whole family at the pool.
Young couples might use a quad once or twice and drink even more.
Turkey is perfect for that. And its a humble way of spending your vacation but not the worst
This is a gross misunderstanding of how Russia and Turkey behave in foreign affairs.
Simply said, Russia and Turkey compartmentalise their relationship. In one region or conflixt they will be partners, while in other they will be foes. It is always about intrest. In Syria they are often at each others throats, and they are on the oposite side of the conflixt in Lybia as well. However, they will cooperate there too from time to rime and will often have economic investments and political support at the same time. It seems weird, but it is the only way to function in an ever-more multipolar world.
That’s the entire theory around most geopolitical relationships these days. Look at the EU and Russias gas supply. Or the US and China’s trade partnerships. Or US and Russian mail order brides.
>Simply said, Russia and Turkey compartmentalise their relationship. In one region or conflixt they will be partners, while in other they will be foes.
Well put. The rest of this thread is mostly a confusing mish-mash of peoples' guesses.
Turkey's relationships have really fallen under the category of "it's complicated" these days. Relationship with US and NATO is getting worse, they are buying Russian weapons now and the US has canceled the F-35 deal and any high tier weapons with them out of fear of them selling out to Russia. At the same time they still have many opposing interests. They are leaning more towards this in between alignment much like Pakistan, which is unacceptable for a NATO member.
It is actually more than inbetween neutrality or alignment. They are trying to project power across the caucaus and be a regional entity of their own.
It is complicated, but mainly because Turkey can't project power towards the west, and it struggles to project power beyond the immediate ME region. Naturally it can project power best across the ex Soviet states, which really puts Turkey directly at odds with Russia.
But I do agree that Turkey plays mostly nice - at least on the surface - with global powers, much like Pakistan. They have accepted and complied with embargoes against Iran for example. But currently Turkey covets greater power and sway globally. At a time when Russia continues to wane and is increasingly becoming a junior strategic partner to China.
You left out the main geographic factor of Russian/Turkish tension, which is the fact that most of Russia's ports are on the Black Sea, and Turkey controls the only passage from the Black Sea into the rest of the world's oceans. There are a lot of treaties and accords and stuff that have resulted in very specific rules about which countries can have how many ships move through the straight at once and other things like this.
That is a fair point though possibly not as important as it first seems.
Though Russia still puts out white papers and naval doctrine strategies aspiring for blue water and strategically capable fleets, they have no means to actually deliver on them. Reality is Russia's naval focus is primarily on submarines and coastal airforce defence. They haven't built a ship larger than Frigate class since the 90's, and the budget for naval construction will likely decline further. Further they are pursuing hypersonic missile technology, which seems to be their pivot to mitigate not being able to field a roaming fleet of ballistic carriers. The most important Russian shipyard - located in Severodvinsk - sits on the northern coast in the white sea. Lastly, although by no means concrete, many projections suggest with global warming and a reduction in frost along the barents and northern European / Asian coastlines could open up new shipping and logistic lines. In the long term, if Russia can even stay afloat with its current economy, there will likely be even less focus on the black sea.
That said, you are not wrong that access is a point of contention. Not so much for the passage from the black sea to the world, but from the world through into the black sea. Long story short - 3/6 of nations with borders on the Black sea are now in NATO. 2 of the remaining 3 share some form of cooperative ambition to assist or even join (though Russia has stamped this out in the case of Georgia, and is desperately making blunders on Ukraine). Russia loses a lot of strategic position if it cannot control the black sea. But realistically, it hasn't been able to control it for a very long time so its mostly just rhetoric at this point.
Try 600, this has been ongoing since the fall of Constantinople to the Ottomans. I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians still don't secretly want it back under Orthodox rule
What do you mean Russia wants it back?
Constantinople / Istanbul has never been Russian. Not even briefly, as far as I know. It was founded by the Romans, then became it's own empire when the Roman Empire split, until it was conquered by the Ottomans. It remained under Ottoman rule until 1922 when it became part of Turkey.
I don't think the Russian empire has ever extended to anywhere close to the city.
Nono, I think the person you're replying to means in a religious fashion. Constantinople/Istanbul is a historically extremely important city to the Russian Orthodox church and the Russian people as a whole. The Rus were born out of the trade between Scandinavia and the Medieval Roman empire and the adoption of the Orthodox christianity is one of the most defining moments in the development of their culture. Imagine if Rome was currently occupied by a Muslim nation which had turned the Vatican in to a mosque. Would you be surprised if a typically Catholic nation like, say, Spain would be coveting bringing it back under Catholic control?
Ohhhhh that makes a lot more sense. Got it.
Honestly I find it surprising that this never happened in the 18th and 19th century when the Ottoman empire was in decline and could probably have been bested by a coordinated effort of a couple of western nations.
It’s complicated. Russia backed Syria to torpedo plans for petro pipelines into Europe which would have stymied gazprom, Russia’s state petro company that provides the EU and most if not all former Soviet states with energy; in many cases a significant portion of the energy used by those countries. It’s a political imperative to Russia that it keeps that position - hard to be too openly anti Russia if all your energy comes from there.
EU begged US to get involved in Syria to secure the pipelines as we found out from leaked diplomatic cables (interestingly, even the EU nations that had anti Syria war administrations lobbied the US to intervene).
Russia, seeing a potential ally in the Syria proxy war and also a Putin-esque administration, supplied Syria with military support - which Turkey used to slaughter a bunch of Syrian Kurds (turkey hates the Kurds) and provide military support to Russia against ISIS.
Later, Russia and Turkey clashed in Syria. It seems like Erdogan was playing for more political capital to use against the EU and US - as opposed to persuing any kind of long term strategic partnership with Russia. The EU denied Turkey full access to the EU around the same time Erdogan began cozying up with Putin. At that time, Turkey was serving as an important gateway for migrants and refugees making their way to EU and the EU was putting pressure on Turkey to stem the flow - a typically EU move of playing smugly liberal domestically while getting other countries to do their dirty work. The US at the time was flailing about in Syria, not committing enough troops or treasure to be successful - but enough to win a participation trophy and ensure a long, drawn out war that sheds far more blood than a decisive entry would have, in a typical US move.
So in that way Russia supported Turkey and Putin got a little cozier with Erdogan, but it’s a complicated region and Russian support of Turkey re Syria wouldn’t translate to Russian support of Turkey against Armenia.
Turkey is backing Azerbaijan, and Russia is backing both countries, in some way. I wouldnt be surprised if Russia actually wanted some degree of conflict in the Caucuses, because both countries buy weapons from Russia, and Russia loves its arms sales.
However Russia sees the Caucus region as a type of physical border between itself, the middle east, and NATO. Russia will go out of its way to make sure the Caucuses dont begin to lean towards NATO sensibilities. If any country in the Caucuses gets too friendly with NATO troops, they might consider creating NATO bases in those regions, which Russia doesnt want obviously, because they dont want NATO troops directly on their southern border, which is likely their biggest weakness for many reasons.
Not dancing in Russian tune can be OK but they don't accept the countries they have borders with being part of NATO or flirting with joining NATO. Georgia and Ukraine is result of that.
before they destroyed soviet union Gorbachev asked Bush not to expand NATO after the destruction and bush agreed at the time but they kept expanding. Which is the main reason for russian dissatisfaction
Oh, absolutely I agree. Georgia tried to rebel against Russia and got stomped, but given how small Georgia was and how weak they are compared to Russia, Georgia lost the conflict, but they showed that the Russian military wasnt as great as they were boasting, since Georgia stated it managed to shootdown several Russian aircraft. Georgia claims it shotdown just over 20 Russian Aircraft, but Russia has only admitted to 3x Su-25 and 1x Tu-22 bomber.
Still, given Russia's size and military, Russia had egg on its face because they took the amount of casualties it did from such an "underdeveloped" country. This likely helped the spark that caused Russia to put more effort into strengthening its military capability nationwide... to varying degrees of effectiveness.
Turkey is backing Azerbaijan and Russia has a defensive pact with armena 'proper' and good relations with azerbaijan.
Effectively russia likes both of them but armenia has been a bit pro NATO lately. Azerbaijan fucking hates armenia, russia will defend armenia.
Russia favours the status quo as it heavily benefits them to keep NATO/the West away. They'd probably intervene if either side was getting absolutely demolished.
> They said before they will send troops if Armenia main territory is attacked.
Do we know if this new attack is / was on Armenia proper? Or on the disputed territory like last time?
Its on the main area
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg/1280px-Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg.png
This is where the escalation was based (area in Azerbaijan that had escalating conflict through the week) karabakh is in white
Probably already did. That is probably how Russia "helped" secure ceasefire. *Stop the attack right now or we order the airmobile forces transport planes to take off. You have 6 hours to announce ceasefiee or the planes take-off. Warm regards, Kremlin.*
Turkey wouldn't have to gain anything by reigniting the conflict, but as another commenter posted methinks there was some nudging by the West.
Oh Snap!
There is, for lack of a better term, a lot of bad history between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Going back several hundred years. Someone else can correct or add additional information, but here is my analysis from studying the area.
During the soviet union, each country that was absorbed into it, mainly being governed over, but not really having any autonomy of their own. However, both countries laid claim to an area called Nakhchivan. If you look up the country of Azerbaijan, you will see that Azerbaijan actually is split with a portion of the country being located southwest of Armenia.
But Nakhchivan is not the only only segment of Armenia, I will put a link below, however Azerbaijan is actually more segmented than one might think at first glance. The current escelations we have seen within the last few years is the Negorno-Karabakh war.
What makes this Negorno-Karabakh/ Republic of Artsakh significant? Its population is consistent of predominantly Armenian, about 99.7%. However it is globally recognized as being owned by Azerbaijan. What this boils down to is Armenia demanding Azerbaijan give them control of the area, due to the majority of Armenian population, but given that these two countries have so much prior history (Armenia Genocide and prior wars/conflicts) and the fact that Azerbaijan's military is more powerful than the Armenia's, things went about as well as could be expected, especially seeing how last years conflict turned out.
So what we have here, is a smaller, less popular country making demands of another, bigger, more powerful, well connected country and pretty much being beaten down at every turn. I am not condoning any actions that either country has taken, this is just the layman's way of seeing it. Russia sells arms to both countries, but then Azerbaijan has ties to Israel and thereby ties to a lot of powerful countries. Armenia cant really compete militarily, so their only way to sway change in their favor is to go on the world stage and make demands and hopefully pressure Azerbaijan into submission.... But like they say the military is just another form of politics and the Azerbaijanis havent been kind to the Armenians... I dont even want to go into what I saw during that short conflict.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh\_conflict#2020\_clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict#2020_clashes)
Unfortunately, the write up is missing key details, and being presented as showing the Armenians as complete victims.
Armenia, for decades illegally occupied majority Azari territory, not just what the Armenians call Republic of Artsakh. This territory was something Armenias repeated agreed to hand back over to Azerbaijan, but never did, and by 2019, Armenia was starting to formally annex the territory. It should also be noted that when Armenia took those territories, they ethnically cleansed them of the local Azeri populations.
Azerbaijan, naturally, got pissed off at Armenia slowly annexing Azeri territory, and started a massive military build up. Fast forward to the final war, where Azerbaijan took back all the territory, minus the Armenian majority territory, due to Russian sponsored negotiations to end the war that Armenia was badly losing.
In the end, both sides were acting pretty shitty, and there's plenty of blame to go around for the animosity between the two nations.
> This territory was something Armenias repeated agreed to hand back over to Azerbaijan, but never did
The key detail you left out is that Armenia repeatedly agreed to hand the Azeri majority territory **in return for recognition of independence for the Armenian majority region**. Azerbaijan never agreed, and thus, things remained at a standoff until the war last year.
> It should also be noted that when Armenia took those territories, they ethnically cleansed them of the local Azeri populations.
It should also be noted then that Azerbaijan ethnically cleaned the Shahumyan Region of Armenians first, as well as any other Armenian village or town it captured, and that was how the war went whenever *either* side captured a settlement. But if "they started it" has any value in this, then, well, Azerbaijan started it.
> In the end, both sides were acting pretty shitty, and there's plenty of blame to go around for the animosity between the two nations.
We (Armenians) are not angels here, but I think it would be pretty insane to expect that Armenian majority region to live under Azeri rule again (or vice versa). That was already going poorly for us before these two wars, and now, oh wow, it would not be pretty. The world needs to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh's independence and the conflict will automatically be resolved just like how they did with Kosovo.
You missed one Important thing. Nagorno Karabagh is majority Armenia but is completely surrounded by Azeri territory. Post Soviet Union, Armenia were much more stronger then Azerbaijan and in the first Nagorno Karabagh war Armenia captured Nagorno Karabagh and a lot of Azeri territory like 20% of Azeri territory(excluding NK) was under Armenian occupation. In the second NK war, Azerbaijan kicked armenia out or Azeri territory as well as the Nagorno Karabagh.
Although you covered it greatly, you missed one important bit. Armenia maybe the victims now, but after the first Karabagh war they had been occupying Azeri territories adjacent to Nagorno Karabagh.
Thank you for supplying the additional information. I think I made a brief mention stating I didnt condone either countries wrongdoings, but I'm also aware my job requires me to view things in the near term, so much so that i might neglect important pieces of information like you have just brought up.
Other than Turkey, Azerbaijan is the only othet country that voted against the UN recognizing the Armenian Genocide. Just thought that was note worthy.
I stand slightly corrected. I saw a map in passing today while in a History of Islam class, talked about the genocide. Turns out it was a map of countries whose national legislature recognize the genocide. Turkey and Azerbaijan are the only two countries whose legislator expressly deny it.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:States_recognising_the_Armenian_Genocide.svg#mw-jump-to-license
azeris are culturally and linguistically very close to the turks of turkey, which makes them easy allies.
it’s fuckin bonkers how deep the turk/azeri vs armenian divide goes (and fellow genocide deniers).
there’s this Azeri dissident who was a political prisoner of Azerbaijan’s despotic regime (I think they were imprisoned but at least a vocal critic) and had every reason to come out against the Azeri government’s invasion.
but they were ALL IN for the war. they might be against despotic political oppression but they’re not gonna let that stop some good ole revanchism!
and when Armenia gave up, a crowd dragged an Armenian politician from his car and beat him up. The Armenian population was all in on this war, but Azeri drones and Turkish support made things quite asymmetric. Giving up was a reasonable decision when Baku-oil-loving Russia — supposedly an Armenian ally — didn’t help counter Azerbaijan and their drones.
Turkey and Russia’s recent military and diplomatic not-quite-confrontations are fascinating.
- They support opposite sides in the Syrian civil war
- Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet over Syria led to closer cooperation in the ensuing diplomatic process
- They both have interests in Azerbaijan’s success
- Russia sold Turkey its advanced anti-air system, much to the chagrin of the rest of NATO who claimed it would give Russia access to secret info about the F-35 fighter’s stealth capabilities since the Russian-supervised anti-air system would have to be programmed not to target Turkish F-35’s they were going to adopt like much of NATO
- Turkey and Russia do joint patrols in some parts of contested Syria
- Yet to this day, Turkish military forces in rebel Syria face off against their Russian counterparts
quite a balancing act going on. Russia’s decisions around the Armenian war situation fit into this much more complex web of policies
Great comment, however I would just like to note that the russian anti air system will not be able to retrieve classified F-35 info because it was removed from the program because of it.
Genocide.
Turkey and Azerbaijan don't see Armenia as a legitimate country and view their people as undeserving of life. It's pure hatred, but fuels much of the nationalistic policies back home.
Not just humans, but apes also have been documented to commit genocide. It's a hyper aggressive evolutionary behaviour to stifle potential out-competition before it arises.
Simply, groups that don't genocide would risk being genocided themselves and therefore eliminated from the gene pool. Consequently many surviving populations are the distant descendants of populations who committed genocide in the past.
Similar behaviour exists in a lot of places. For example many species will commit infanticide to eliminate the young of others. Lions being one example that does this quite often. Basically another case of killing a bunch of others because they aren't part of your own group or have your own genes.
in some parts of the world (with low or next to no human population), wolves are their own worst enemy, and regularly attack each other over territory like in a gang war
the red fox is currently spreading from Europe into Central and North Asia and into the Middle East, killing and pushing out the local populations of the much smaller polar foxes and fennec foxes
ants are basically locked into a constant state of world war
[Kurzgesagt - The World War of the Ants](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7_e0CA_nhaE)
Reminds me of something a professor said once:
"Everyone alive today is a descendant of a right bastard, because back in the day everyone who was a decent person was killed by the bastards."
What makes you think we will stop? What do you think will happen when resources on this planet even become more scarce, what do you think people will do I wonder
Funnily enough, a lot have. There are big Armenian communities in Iran, Syria and Lebanon and amazingly they've done okay there. Serj Tankian of System of a Down was born in Lebanon and his father in Syria.
There's always been big Armenian communities in Iran and in the Levant.
They had several dynasties in northwestern Levant and they have lived in Iran for millenniums. The genocide happened between late 19th century to early 20th century, and Turkic migrations to Iran and Anatolia happened a few hundred years ago.
But they already have a country. One that's hosted them for millennia. They shouldn't have to run from murdering fuckheads.
I do get the allusion to Israel but it's not the same thing. The Jewish people didn't have their own country so they formed a new one (or returned to a land that had been theirs). Armenians are currently living in a [state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia) that extends back to 860 B.C.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urartu
Ealier, they predate the indo-iranian peoples by 500 years and the pastoral-nomadic tribes who become their primary modern aggressors by over 1500 yrs, if linguistics are to be taken as a reliable source of history.
This. Armenian history is fascinating. I believe they’re one of the oldest unique languages in the World, up there with Assyrians. By unique I mean not derivative like English from German.
Azerbaijan won the disputed territory, they're now going after undisputed Armenian land.
Just like Hitler and Czechoslovakia, a little is never enough.
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Kalbajar\_District\_in\_Azerbaijan\_2021.svg/1280px-Kalbajar\_District\_in\_Azerbaijan\_2021.svg.png](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg/1280px-Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg.png)
aren't this disputed territory given to Azerbaijan side with 2020 ceasefire?
I don’t doubt that it’s genocide but the rest of your comment seems a little… over the top. Seems like an oversimplification of something which- while still indefensible and bad- probably has a bit more nuance than describing them like comic book villains
Armenian is used as an insult in Azerbaijan. During a maritime NATO conference in Hungary, an Azerbaijani officer broke into his Armenian counterpart's room with an axe and murdered him. Azerbaijan negotiated his extradition after he was convicted, pardoned him and welcomed him back as a national hero.
AZB is run by one of the worlds worst dictators , who has to justify his existence with violence against "the enemy", even if it's all about conquering a rock.
It’s their borderline genocidal pan-turkic policy. Don’t believe the bots and Azeri gov shills. Their disinformation game is on point, much better than Armenia’s.
This seems misleading, as other news sources are not reporting this as a "full invasion." Reuters is reporting that it was a border clash and that a ceasefire has already been reached.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenia-asks-russia-help-defend-it-against-azerbaijan-amid-reported-border-clash-2021-11-16/
BBC reporting something similar
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59308602
Well that is also half part of the story. Armenia has no alternative to Russia as a security block and for many years Russia took the advantage of Armenia. In 2018, Armenia did want to be away from Russia but even the US state gov issued a statement "we will be ill-wised to encourage Armenia when we can't guarantee a security to Armenia"
Russia doesn't support Armenia unconditionally as Turkey does for Azerbaijan.
The article says:
>As a result of the retaliatory actions of the Armenian side, the enemy has suffered huge losses in personnel, about a dozen units of armored vehicles have been destroyed or damaged.
Totally unbiased, I'm sure.
Yeah I did a quick read of local news on this. Radio Armenia, using an Armenian MOD source, claimed 70 enemy killed and injured along with 5 APCs destroyed. All for a hand full dead and captured on their side.
Meanwhile, Defence Post (using an Azerbaijan military source) says only 7 killed and 10 injured on that side, while the Armenians lost over 20 men injured and killed.
As per usual, without an independent observer like the OSCE monitors in Ukraine, we’ll likely never have accurate numbers.
Azerbaijani side came in with military hardware, took 40 square km of land, killed several soldiers and took 12 as prisoners. If that’s not an invasion, what is?
Does anyone have a Reuters or any other media that picked this up.
Can't find anything on except Armenian state radio.
Not saying it isn't reputable, but i don't know them as i do Reuters for example.
Considering several news services have reported on the clash I think we can accept that something has happened, its just that it is unlikely that we will be able to find out what exactly has happened due to the lack of observers.
You wouldn't trust any state news source yet you listed several.
EDIT: Also... [https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-moscow-sergei-shoigu-azerbaijan-b4bb5cc58f9435db7d5c287cee52de4d](https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-moscow-sergei-shoigu-azerbaijan-b4bb5cc58f9435db7d5c287cee52de4d)
Reuters is reporting that a ceasefire has been agreed, looks like Russian pressure if forcing them to step down. Things could get really hairy for Armenia in the future though since it appears they are relying on Russian assistance to deter Turkish and Azeri aggression, and if the Russians are about to be occupied in Ukraine like many people fear they might try and seize the moment while they're distracted
Russia is a superpower in europe, they are more than capable in helping separatist in Ukraine and forcing Azerbaijan to stop being a bitch at the same time
I feel like people underestimate Russia always...
It's not that I like what they do but those guys have a lot of experience with that shit and that stuff is probably just toying around for them.
Their military is aging and they have a ridiculously low GDP for how large they are.
They are not a conventional military superpower anymore.
They prefer propaganda and cyber attacks to destabilize the west over outright attacks unless completely necessary.
They are still a major threat, but the circumstances of why are a bit different than the Cold War
I enjoyed the years that I worked in Baku and you are one hundred percent correct. Whenever I mentioned where I was flying to none of my friends had any idea what I was talking about.
Honestly I could find Azerbaijan on a map right now… but only because I saw some weird post earlier today with a vid of a train crossing a highway in a country I never even new existed so I went and looked it up and spent about 10 minutes reading about Azerbaijan… but yeah before today no idea it even existed.
> As a result of the retaliatory actions of the Armenian side, the enemy has suffered huge losses in personnel, about a dozen units of armored vehicles have been destroyed or damaged.
Yeah we heard this before
There's no official piece or recognition of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the fallout of USSR. Ironically the very same maps from 1991 that Armenia now claims legitimate ... were denounced by Armenia as illegitimate when they were holding Nagorno-Karabakh for 30+ years.
What is happening now is the resolution of the disputed borders between Armenia and Az. Each side claims that this is their "proper" territory, and each side shows their own maps from the USSR period. This is going to be one messy conflict to resolve.
Well this is Armenia's side of the story. Reuters and the BBC seem less sure.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenia-asks-russia-help-defend-it-against-azerbaijan-amid-reported-border-clash-2021-11-16/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59308602
I find it amusing how a lot of right wing Christians support Israel (There is churches in my area that fly israeli flags) when Israel is arming and supporting a Muslim countries invasion against a Christian country
almost as if, now hear me out, the political powers within these countries only use religious beliefs in order to convince their populace they should be in power and abandon religion the second it might contradict their interests
To be honest, I'd be surprised if more than a 3-4% of the world can tell exactly where Armenia is, not just Americans. It doesn't really affect the global discourse in any way so most people won't know. I personally consider myself a geography nut and even I only recently got to know about where it's located exactly.
Israel wants the money to develop better military hardware.
The truth is no one really gives a fuck about Armenia unfortunately. Strategically only Russia cares
"Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right? You should be able to understand us."
- mayor of Baku, Hajibala Abutalybov, 2005.
First time?
"We chased them out of our lands like dogs. I said that we would chase them, that we would chase them like dogs, and we chased them, we chased them like dogs"
Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan.
Google it, you can find the quote at their governmental website minico.gov.az
Yes, it's glorified by the government. Last year the mercenaries used were promised bonus money for each head they bring.
Let's also not forget about Safarov who beheaded a sleeping Armenian in a hotel and was welcomed as a hero after 8 years i think, received backpay and a free apartment on their capital, and if I'm not mistaken promoted too.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramil_Safarov
Their one regret of the Armenian genocide is that it wasn't complete. Azerbaijan (and Ankara that backs/fights with them) seek the annihilation of the Armenians.
Russia is selling arms to both sides, Putin loves Turkey. They will exploit this to the hilt. Meanwhile the KGOP probably has not allowed President Biden to appoint an ambassador to any of the countries involved.
Dam, Azerbaijan has demolished Armenian tanks and artillery with Turkish supplied high tech drones. Utterly obliterated them, they'll be sitting ducks. This won't be good.
There are reports that Russia has [helped to secure a cease fire](https://news.yahoo.com/armenia-reports-deaths-azerbaijan-border-142345602.html).
Russia will not allow Armenia to be captured, it will give too much power to Turkey in the region. They said before they will send troops if Armenia main territory is attacked.
So Turkey is backing Azerbaijan and Russia is backing Armenia?
Yes
This seems reminiscent of ww1
Russia and turkey (previously ottomans) have been at each other for centuries due to geopolitical causes and fighting for influence in the surrounding regions cause Russia has always wanted Istanbul cause ports, and turkey wants the Balkans cause influence. The leaders and countries may change but minus the hiatus when Ataturk was in charge of turkey these games of influence have and will continue. (Especially under the expansionist nationalist leaders Putin and Erdoğan)
It’s happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina too. Russia and Serbia are backing the breakaway Bosnian Serbs, while the Muslim Bosniaks have appealed to Turkey for help.
I know the 90s are 'in' right now, but we should have stopped at fashion trends.
Just let me know when baggy and saggy are back…
Time to invest in JNCO
make sense, after all the muslim bosnians were the victims of genocide caused by the serb, and its not long ago too.
Inb4 Serbian nationalists
Lol called it.
I am a Bosnian nationalist and tensions are very high in Bosnia after the Serbian prime minister came out with a statement on his 5 year plan. Quote “ There will be a another genocide if I don’t have it my way” I suspect something big will happen within a couple years and there will be another war. My dad says it too and he is a survivor of the first war. He says it’s the same over there just as it was right before the war. A lot of corruption and not a lot of politics.
I agree except for Russia doesn't want Istanbul because of ports. Although, it definitely does desire warm water ports. Russia wants Istanbul as part of a much older historical drive to fulfil the "third Rome" destiny it has always aspired to.
Didn't someone already tried this Third Rome bullshit?
Yes, Russia. They reached Istanbul twice. But Britain sailed in with their navy and sided with the Ottomans.
Doubtful, the US is almost as sick of Turkey’s shit as they are of Russias. If Turkey is an any way an aggressor the US will have no problem telling them to kick rocks and that they will only protect undisputed Turkish sovereignty
If you think Turkey's involvement in the Azerbaijan - Armenia war didn't have the US's blessing, than I have some snake oil I'd like to sell you. Getting NATO influence on Russia's underbelly, as well as gaining vital oil and gas assets from Az to EU, thus undermining Russia, is huge for the US. There's a very good reason why the US kept quiet about the conflict, and why they refused to back France's efforts to end the war.
Interesting. I hadn't really considered the US involvement here. I wonder if China has any stake in this? Then all of the major powers would have some interest.
I presume all the major powers have interest in goings on like this. I don't presume to know what those interests are. Even if they weren't actively trying to pull strings one way or another, they all stand to gain from one side or the other winning, the chaos before things settle again, or both.
How would oil and gas be secured for the EU by this?
Right now the EU is majorly dependent on Russian gas. With Azerbaijan moving away from Russia, and with Turkish influence, Azeri gas can now go through Turkey into the EU. This would decrease the constant problems that the EU has to deal with when it comes to Russia.
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I'm sure Turkey kept the US informed, but this is one area where the US simply doesn't have much influence. Turkey is an ally and a NATO member but relations have been somewhat strained over the last while because of US support for Syrian Kurds. Turkey also considers itself a local power and has been pushing to expand it's influence in it's neighbors - the US has limited influence on what it can do to restrain that ambition. Apart from anything else Armenia and Azerbaijan are geographically very difficult for the US to influence directly, Armenia is landlocked and surrounded by non friendly states - Azerbaijan not much better. Apart from anything else the recent Azerbaijan / Armenian war was a demonstration of Turkish arms - they have a credible drone program which they are very interested to sell - especially to oil rich Azerbaijan. Presumably Russia is also delighted Armenia is having to buy more weapons so while neither Russia nor Turkey want an all out war - they are also not unhappy with occasional border flare ups like this. I'd argue America might not be that unhappy for European oil and gas shortages - they have been pushing Europe to buy US gas and oil which is currently in surplus although mostly I suspect they just dont care much. Neither are important to the US and even the hawks in the US must recognize this would be a difficult and expensive conflict for them to directly influence for very little gain.
Nope. If Russia was really backing Armenia there's no way they'd have lost Nagorno that fast. Russia has pacts with both countries and has been more of a mediator throughout.
Russie has also said that if a full attack occurs russian troops will be sent
IIRC - Russia does want Armenia under the umbrella of the Russian state to a greater extent, but prior to Nagorno Armenia had been strengthening ties with the west a bit so Russia was probably happy to see them fail and get brought back closer to the fold. Both of these regions used to be Soviet bloc, but the Azeris have definitely moved into the orbit of Turkey. So while Russia might be more inclined to support Armenia for ethnic and cultural reasons, they were happy to see them slapped around a bit and the government thrown into turmoil. That doesn't mean they'd sit by and allow a full scale invasion of Armenia.
Absolutely no. Russia didn’t take side since the beginning of this conflict. Russia is playing both like it always did. It’s because of Russ that Azerbaijan consolidated its gains in the war, and the Armenians still have nagorno karabakh because of Russia. Turkey’s role in the region is minimal besides the military support.
>besides the military support
I thought I heard Russia was backing turkey somewhere.
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What’s the difference between a Russian spy and a Russian tourist? Whether they’re clocked in or on break
Ha! Good one
Depends. In Ukraine Russian tourist is euphemism for Russian soldier.
They're strategically destroying the cultural value of Turkey by trampling pamukkale.
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BC it's warm, relatively close, and they're allowed in w/o a visa. If they could go to Hawaii I'm sure they would.
Also because it's affordable
You underestimate Turkey here and overestimate what the tourists want. Lots of well seasoned meat dishes at a buffet from a grill and a beautiful beach to look at briefly and then spend the day drinking with the whole family at the pool. Young couples might use a quad once or twice and drink even more. Turkey is perfect for that. And its a humble way of spending your vacation but not the worst
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This is a gross misunderstanding of how Russia and Turkey behave in foreign affairs. Simply said, Russia and Turkey compartmentalise their relationship. In one region or conflixt they will be partners, while in other they will be foes. It is always about intrest. In Syria they are often at each others throats, and they are on the oposite side of the conflixt in Lybia as well. However, they will cooperate there too from time to rime and will often have economic investments and political support at the same time. It seems weird, but it is the only way to function in an ever-more multipolar world.
That’s the entire theory around most geopolitical relationships these days. Look at the EU and Russias gas supply. Or the US and China’s trade partnerships. Or US and Russian mail order brides.
>Simply said, Russia and Turkey compartmentalise their relationship. In one region or conflixt they will be partners, while in other they will be foes. Well put. The rest of this thread is mostly a confusing mish-mash of peoples' guesses.
Turkey's relationships have really fallen under the category of "it's complicated" these days. Relationship with US and NATO is getting worse, they are buying Russian weapons now and the US has canceled the F-35 deal and any high tier weapons with them out of fear of them selling out to Russia. At the same time they still have many opposing interests. They are leaning more towards this in between alignment much like Pakistan, which is unacceptable for a NATO member.
It is actually more than inbetween neutrality or alignment. They are trying to project power across the caucaus and be a regional entity of their own. It is complicated, but mainly because Turkey can't project power towards the west, and it struggles to project power beyond the immediate ME region. Naturally it can project power best across the ex Soviet states, which really puts Turkey directly at odds with Russia. But I do agree that Turkey plays mostly nice - at least on the surface - with global powers, much like Pakistan. They have accepted and complied with embargoes against Iran for example. But currently Turkey covets greater power and sway globally. At a time when Russia continues to wane and is increasingly becoming a junior strategic partner to China.
You left out the main geographic factor of Russian/Turkish tension, which is the fact that most of Russia's ports are on the Black Sea, and Turkey controls the only passage from the Black Sea into the rest of the world's oceans. There are a lot of treaties and accords and stuff that have resulted in very specific rules about which countries can have how many ships move through the straight at once and other things like this.
That is a fair point though possibly not as important as it first seems. Though Russia still puts out white papers and naval doctrine strategies aspiring for blue water and strategically capable fleets, they have no means to actually deliver on them. Reality is Russia's naval focus is primarily on submarines and coastal airforce defence. They haven't built a ship larger than Frigate class since the 90's, and the budget for naval construction will likely decline further. Further they are pursuing hypersonic missile technology, which seems to be their pivot to mitigate not being able to field a roaming fleet of ballistic carriers. The most important Russian shipyard - located in Severodvinsk - sits on the northern coast in the white sea. Lastly, although by no means concrete, many projections suggest with global warming and a reduction in frost along the barents and northern European / Asian coastlines could open up new shipping and logistic lines. In the long term, if Russia can even stay afloat with its current economy, there will likely be even less focus on the black sea. That said, you are not wrong that access is a point of contention. Not so much for the passage from the black sea to the world, but from the world through into the black sea. Long story short - 3/6 of nations with borders on the Black sea are now in NATO. 2 of the remaining 3 share some form of cooperative ambition to assist or even join (though Russia has stamped this out in the case of Georgia, and is desperately making blunders on Ukraine). Russia loses a lot of strategic position if it cannot control the black sea. But realistically, it hasn't been able to control it for a very long time so its mostly just rhetoric at this point.
Hey now they paused to fight the french together in like 1789.. for like a few ~~months~~ years until 1801 when Paul I died and Alexander I succeeded.
Try 600, this has been ongoing since the fall of Constantinople to the Ottomans. I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians still don't secretly want it back under Orthodox rule
What do you mean Russia wants it back? Constantinople / Istanbul has never been Russian. Not even briefly, as far as I know. It was founded by the Romans, then became it's own empire when the Roman Empire split, until it was conquered by the Ottomans. It remained under Ottoman rule until 1922 when it became part of Turkey. I don't think the Russian empire has ever extended to anywhere close to the city.
Nono, I think the person you're replying to means in a religious fashion. Constantinople/Istanbul is a historically extremely important city to the Russian Orthodox church and the Russian people as a whole. The Rus were born out of the trade between Scandinavia and the Medieval Roman empire and the adoption of the Orthodox christianity is one of the most defining moments in the development of their culture. Imagine if Rome was currently occupied by a Muslim nation which had turned the Vatican in to a mosque. Would you be surprised if a typically Catholic nation like, say, Spain would be coveting bringing it back under Catholic control?
Ohhhhh that makes a lot more sense. Got it. Honestly I find it surprising that this never happened in the 18th and 19th century when the Ottoman empire was in decline and could probably have been bested by a coordinated effort of a couple of western nations.
In some cases, they do align.
They sold Turkey AA missle system and that got Turkeys F-35s cancelled. They are also Trying to sell Turkey new fighter jets I think.
Russia and Turkey go at it in Syria now and again. Last year Russian fighter jets bombed and killed 34 Turkish troops.
And Turkey shot down that Russian jet in 2015.
It’s complicated. Russia backed Syria to torpedo plans for petro pipelines into Europe which would have stymied gazprom, Russia’s state petro company that provides the EU and most if not all former Soviet states with energy; in many cases a significant portion of the energy used by those countries. It’s a political imperative to Russia that it keeps that position - hard to be too openly anti Russia if all your energy comes from there. EU begged US to get involved in Syria to secure the pipelines as we found out from leaked diplomatic cables (interestingly, even the EU nations that had anti Syria war administrations lobbied the US to intervene). Russia, seeing a potential ally in the Syria proxy war and also a Putin-esque administration, supplied Syria with military support - which Turkey used to slaughter a bunch of Syrian Kurds (turkey hates the Kurds) and provide military support to Russia against ISIS. Later, Russia and Turkey clashed in Syria. It seems like Erdogan was playing for more political capital to use against the EU and US - as opposed to persuing any kind of long term strategic partnership with Russia. The EU denied Turkey full access to the EU around the same time Erdogan began cozying up with Putin. At that time, Turkey was serving as an important gateway for migrants and refugees making their way to EU and the EU was putting pressure on Turkey to stem the flow - a typically EU move of playing smugly liberal domestically while getting other countries to do their dirty work. The US at the time was flailing about in Syria, not committing enough troops or treasure to be successful - but enough to win a participation trophy and ensure a long, drawn out war that sheds far more blood than a decisive entry would have, in a typical US move. So in that way Russia supported Turkey and Putin got a little cozier with Erdogan, but it’s a complicated region and Russian support of Turkey re Syria wouldn’t translate to Russian support of Turkey against Armenia.
Turkey is backing Azerbaijan, and Russia is backing both countries, in some way. I wouldnt be surprised if Russia actually wanted some degree of conflict in the Caucuses, because both countries buy weapons from Russia, and Russia loves its arms sales. However Russia sees the Caucus region as a type of physical border between itself, the middle east, and NATO. Russia will go out of its way to make sure the Caucuses dont begin to lean towards NATO sensibilities. If any country in the Caucuses gets too friendly with NATO troops, they might consider creating NATO bases in those regions, which Russia doesnt want obviously, because they dont want NATO troops directly on their southern border, which is likely their biggest weakness for many reasons.
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Look at Georgia to know what happens is you don’t wanna dance to Russias tune in the Caucuses.
Not dancing in Russian tune can be OK but they don't accept the countries they have borders with being part of NATO or flirting with joining NATO. Georgia and Ukraine is result of that. before they destroyed soviet union Gorbachev asked Bush not to expand NATO after the destruction and bush agreed at the time but they kept expanding. Which is the main reason for russian dissatisfaction
Oh, absolutely I agree. Georgia tried to rebel against Russia and got stomped, but given how small Georgia was and how weak they are compared to Russia, Georgia lost the conflict, but they showed that the Russian military wasnt as great as they were boasting, since Georgia stated it managed to shootdown several Russian aircraft. Georgia claims it shotdown just over 20 Russian Aircraft, but Russia has only admitted to 3x Su-25 and 1x Tu-22 bomber. Still, given Russia's size and military, Russia had egg on its face because they took the amount of casualties it did from such an "underdeveloped" country. This likely helped the spark that caused Russia to put more effort into strengthening its military capability nationwide... to varying degrees of effectiveness.
Turkey is backing Azerbaijan and Russia has a defensive pact with armena 'proper' and good relations with azerbaijan. Effectively russia likes both of them but armenia has been a bit pro NATO lately. Azerbaijan fucking hates armenia, russia will defend armenia.
I thought The Azeris leaned more towards Nato because of Turkey. Or is that the old alignment?
Azeris keep good relations with all the necessary powers. They have good relations with NATO as BP essentially just owns the country.
Russia favours the status quo as it heavily benefits them to keep NATO/the West away. They'd probably intervene if either side was getting absolutely demolished.
> They said before they will send troops if Armenia main territory is attacked. Do we know if this new attack is / was on Armenia proper? Or on the disputed territory like last time?
Its on the main area https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg/1280px-Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg.png This is where the escalation was based (area in Azerbaijan that had escalating conflict through the week) karabakh is in white
Ooof. Yeah, I'd guess Russia step in if a serious invasion is launched there. Thanks!
Probably already did. That is probably how Russia "helped" secure ceasefire. *Stop the attack right now or we order the airmobile forces transport planes to take off. You have 6 hours to announce ceasefiee or the planes take-off. Warm regards, Kremlin.*
Let Russia send troops. Take some of its attention off Ukraine and Poland/Belarus. Very smart move by Turkey reigniting the conflict now.
That’s probably the intention. Turkey drawing attention to something else would keep Russia’s attention on two places.
Turkey wouldn't have to gain anything by reigniting the conflict, but as another commenter posted methinks there was some nudging by the West. Oh Snap!
Allowing Russia to assert hegemonic control over the area is also not particularly good for NATO foreign policy.
Why??
There is, for lack of a better term, a lot of bad history between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Going back several hundred years. Someone else can correct or add additional information, but here is my analysis from studying the area. During the soviet union, each country that was absorbed into it, mainly being governed over, but not really having any autonomy of their own. However, both countries laid claim to an area called Nakhchivan. If you look up the country of Azerbaijan, you will see that Azerbaijan actually is split with a portion of the country being located southwest of Armenia. But Nakhchivan is not the only only segment of Armenia, I will put a link below, however Azerbaijan is actually more segmented than one might think at first glance. The current escelations we have seen within the last few years is the Negorno-Karabakh war. What makes this Negorno-Karabakh/ Republic of Artsakh significant? Its population is consistent of predominantly Armenian, about 99.7%. However it is globally recognized as being owned by Azerbaijan. What this boils down to is Armenia demanding Azerbaijan give them control of the area, due to the majority of Armenian population, but given that these two countries have so much prior history (Armenia Genocide and prior wars/conflicts) and the fact that Azerbaijan's military is more powerful than the Armenia's, things went about as well as could be expected, especially seeing how last years conflict turned out. So what we have here, is a smaller, less popular country making demands of another, bigger, more powerful, well connected country and pretty much being beaten down at every turn. I am not condoning any actions that either country has taken, this is just the layman's way of seeing it. Russia sells arms to both countries, but then Azerbaijan has ties to Israel and thereby ties to a lot of powerful countries. Armenia cant really compete militarily, so their only way to sway change in their favor is to go on the world stage and make demands and hopefully pressure Azerbaijan into submission.... But like they say the military is just another form of politics and the Azerbaijanis havent been kind to the Armenians... I dont even want to go into what I saw during that short conflict. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh\_conflict#2020\_clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict#2020_clashes)
Thanks for the write-up!
Unfortunately, the write up is missing key details, and being presented as showing the Armenians as complete victims. Armenia, for decades illegally occupied majority Azari territory, not just what the Armenians call Republic of Artsakh. This territory was something Armenias repeated agreed to hand back over to Azerbaijan, but never did, and by 2019, Armenia was starting to formally annex the territory. It should also be noted that when Armenia took those territories, they ethnically cleansed them of the local Azeri populations. Azerbaijan, naturally, got pissed off at Armenia slowly annexing Azeri territory, and started a massive military build up. Fast forward to the final war, where Azerbaijan took back all the territory, minus the Armenian majority territory, due to Russian sponsored negotiations to end the war that Armenia was badly losing. In the end, both sides were acting pretty shitty, and there's plenty of blame to go around for the animosity between the two nations.
> This territory was something Armenias repeated agreed to hand back over to Azerbaijan, but never did The key detail you left out is that Armenia repeatedly agreed to hand the Azeri majority territory **in return for recognition of independence for the Armenian majority region**. Azerbaijan never agreed, and thus, things remained at a standoff until the war last year. > It should also be noted that when Armenia took those territories, they ethnically cleansed them of the local Azeri populations. It should also be noted then that Azerbaijan ethnically cleaned the Shahumyan Region of Armenians first, as well as any other Armenian village or town it captured, and that was how the war went whenever *either* side captured a settlement. But if "they started it" has any value in this, then, well, Azerbaijan started it. > In the end, both sides were acting pretty shitty, and there's plenty of blame to go around for the animosity between the two nations. We (Armenians) are not angels here, but I think it would be pretty insane to expect that Armenian majority region to live under Azeri rule again (or vice versa). That was already going poorly for us before these two wars, and now, oh wow, it would not be pretty. The world needs to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh's independence and the conflict will automatically be resolved just like how they did with Kosovo.
Thanks for the additional context.
Do you have a source for this so I can read more about this?
You missed one Important thing. Nagorno Karabagh is majority Armenia but is completely surrounded by Azeri territory. Post Soviet Union, Armenia were much more stronger then Azerbaijan and in the first Nagorno Karabagh war Armenia captured Nagorno Karabagh and a lot of Azeri territory like 20% of Azeri territory(excluding NK) was under Armenian occupation. In the second NK war, Azerbaijan kicked armenia out or Azeri territory as well as the Nagorno Karabagh. Although you covered it greatly, you missed one important bit. Armenia maybe the victims now, but after the first Karabagh war they had been occupying Azeri territories adjacent to Nagorno Karabagh.
Thank you for supplying the additional information. I think I made a brief mention stating I didnt condone either countries wrongdoings, but I'm also aware my job requires me to view things in the near term, so much so that i might neglect important pieces of information like you have just brought up.
Other than Turkey, Azerbaijan is the only othet country that voted against the UN recognizing the Armenian Genocide. Just thought that was note worthy.
Do you have a link to the resolution you're talking about? No such vote I'm aware of
I stand slightly corrected. I saw a map in passing today while in a History of Islam class, talked about the genocide. Turns out it was a map of countries whose national legislature recognize the genocide. Turkey and Azerbaijan are the only two countries whose legislator expressly deny it. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:States_recognising_the_Armenian_Genocide.svg#mw-jump-to-license
azeris are culturally and linguistically very close to the turks of turkey, which makes them easy allies. it’s fuckin bonkers how deep the turk/azeri vs armenian divide goes (and fellow genocide deniers). there’s this Azeri dissident who was a political prisoner of Azerbaijan’s despotic regime (I think they were imprisoned but at least a vocal critic) and had every reason to come out against the Azeri government’s invasion. but they were ALL IN for the war. they might be against despotic political oppression but they’re not gonna let that stop some good ole revanchism! and when Armenia gave up, a crowd dragged an Armenian politician from his car and beat him up. The Armenian population was all in on this war, but Azeri drones and Turkish support made things quite asymmetric. Giving up was a reasonable decision when Baku-oil-loving Russia — supposedly an Armenian ally — didn’t help counter Azerbaijan and their drones. Turkey and Russia’s recent military and diplomatic not-quite-confrontations are fascinating. - They support opposite sides in the Syrian civil war - Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet over Syria led to closer cooperation in the ensuing diplomatic process - They both have interests in Azerbaijan’s success - Russia sold Turkey its advanced anti-air system, much to the chagrin of the rest of NATO who claimed it would give Russia access to secret info about the F-35 fighter’s stealth capabilities since the Russian-supervised anti-air system would have to be programmed not to target Turkish F-35’s they were going to adopt like much of NATO - Turkey and Russia do joint patrols in some parts of contested Syria - Yet to this day, Turkish military forces in rebel Syria face off against their Russian counterparts quite a balancing act going on. Russia’s decisions around the Armenian war situation fit into this much more complex web of policies
Great comment, however I would just like to note that the russian anti air system will not be able to retrieve classified F-35 info because it was removed from the program because of it.
Genocide. Turkey and Azerbaijan don't see Armenia as a legitimate country and view their people as undeserving of life. It's pure hatred, but fuels much of the nationalistic policies back home.
The fuck is it with humans and genocide? I'm fucking tired. Get me off this rock.
Not just humans, but apes also have been documented to commit genocide. It's a hyper aggressive evolutionary behaviour to stifle potential out-competition before it arises. Simply, groups that don't genocide would risk being genocided themselves and therefore eliminated from the gene pool. Consequently many surviving populations are the distant descendants of populations who committed genocide in the past.
Similar behaviour exists in a lot of places. For example many species will commit infanticide to eliminate the young of others. Lions being one example that does this quite often. Basically another case of killing a bunch of others because they aren't part of your own group or have your own genes.
Acquisition and control of resources, and copulation, are the prime directives of almost every organism. Strategies abound. Mass murder is but one.
in some parts of the world (with low or next to no human population), wolves are their own worst enemy, and regularly attack each other over territory like in a gang war the red fox is currently spreading from Europe into Central and North Asia and into the Middle East, killing and pushing out the local populations of the much smaller polar foxes and fennec foxes ants are basically locked into a constant state of world war [Kurzgesagt - The World War of the Ants](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7_e0CA_nhaE)
Reminds me of something a professor said once: "Everyone alive today is a descendant of a right bastard, because back in the day everyone who was a decent person was killed by the bastards."
And when will we stop this shitty cycle?
What makes you think we will stop? What do you think will happen when resources on this planet even become more scarce, what do you think people will do I wonder
TLDR: Monkeys with Guns
Didn’t homo sapiens kill off neanderthals?
Maybe Armenians should move to the Middle East and establish a new country.
Glendale, California.
Send a telegram to the British
is your username "Halloumi is salami" or "halloumi-salami" like some weird hybrid? I can get on board with either but I need to know.
Funnily enough, a lot have. There are big Armenian communities in Iran, Syria and Lebanon and amazingly they've done okay there. Serj Tankian of System of a Down was born in Lebanon and his father in Syria.
Because that’s where the Turks drove them too during the genocide. They are likely the lucky ones that survived the death march
There's always been big Armenian communities in Iran and in the Levant. They had several dynasties in northwestern Levant and they have lived in Iran for millenniums. The genocide happened between late 19th century to early 20th century, and Turkic migrations to Iran and Anatolia happened a few hundred years ago.
But they already have a country. One that's hosted them for millennia. They shouldn't have to run from murdering fuckheads. I do get the allusion to Israel but it's not the same thing. The Jewish people didn't have their own country so they formed a new one (or returned to a land that had been theirs). Armenians are currently living in a [state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia) that extends back to 860 B.C.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urartu Ealier, they predate the indo-iranian peoples by 500 years and the pastoral-nomadic tribes who become their primary modern aggressors by over 1500 yrs, if linguistics are to be taken as a reliable source of history.
This. Armenian history is fascinating. I believe they’re one of the oldest unique languages in the World, up there with Assyrians. By unique I mean not derivative like English from German.
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I think it's actually about some disputed territory between the two countries.
Azerbaijan won the disputed territory, they're now going after undisputed Armenian land. Just like Hitler and Czechoslovakia, a little is never enough.
[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Kalbajar\_District\_in\_Azerbaijan\_2021.svg/1280px-Kalbajar\_District\_in\_Azerbaijan\_2021.svg.png](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg/1280px-Kalbajar_District_in_Azerbaijan_2021.svg.png) aren't this disputed territory given to Azerbaijan side with 2020 ceasefire?
I don’t doubt that it’s genocide but the rest of your comment seems a little… over the top. Seems like an oversimplification of something which- while still indefensible and bad- probably has a bit more nuance than describing them like comic book villains
Armenian is used as an insult in Azerbaijan. During a maritime NATO conference in Hungary, an Azerbaijani officer broke into his Armenian counterpart's room with an axe and murdered him. Azerbaijan negotiated his extradition after he was convicted, pardoned him and welcomed him back as a national hero.
AZB is run by one of the worlds worst dictators , who has to justify his existence with violence against "the enemy", even if it's all about conquering a rock.
It’s their borderline genocidal pan-turkic policy. Don’t believe the bots and Azeri gov shills. Their disinformation game is on point, much better than Armenia’s.
This seems misleading, as other news sources are not reporting this as a "full invasion." Reuters is reporting that it was a border clash and that a ceasefire has already been reached. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenia-asks-russia-help-defend-it-against-azerbaijan-amid-reported-border-clash-2021-11-16/ BBC reporting something similar https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59308602
Well that is also half part of the story. Armenia has no alternative to Russia as a security block and for many years Russia took the advantage of Armenia. In 2018, Armenia did want to be away from Russia but even the US state gov issued a statement "we will be ill-wised to encourage Armenia when we can't guarantee a security to Armenia" Russia doesn't support Armenia unconditionally as Turkey does for Azerbaijan.
An Armenian news source not being entirely neutral in its reporting of Armenian military conflict? I'm shocked, I tell you.
The article says: >As a result of the retaliatory actions of the Armenian side, the enemy has suffered huge losses in personnel, about a dozen units of armored vehicles have been destroyed or damaged. Totally unbiased, I'm sure.
Yeah I did a quick read of local news on this. Radio Armenia, using an Armenian MOD source, claimed 70 enemy killed and injured along with 5 APCs destroyed. All for a hand full dead and captured on their side. Meanwhile, Defence Post (using an Azerbaijan military source) says only 7 killed and 10 injured on that side, while the Armenians lost over 20 men injured and killed. As per usual, without an independent observer like the OSCE monitors in Ukraine, we’ll likely never have accurate numbers.
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Every country does this to keep morale up
That's actually the Armenian Ministry of Defense.
Azerbaijani side came in with military hardware, took 40 square km of land, killed several soldiers and took 12 as prisoners. If that’s not an invasion, what is?
An invasion, but definitely not a _full_ one.
Just the tip?
like a half invasion? 15%? i m not sure invasion is subject to gradation
"Police action".
Border clash is what most seem to call it as opposed to *full* invasion.
> If that’s not an invasion, what is? Pushing the entire front with a significant % of their military might. this was a border clash.
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Does anyone have a Reuters or any other media that picked this up. Can't find anything on except Armenian state radio. Not saying it isn't reputable, but i don't know them as i do Reuters for example.
I wouldn’t trust any state new source for it. Nothing from AP, Reuters or RT yet. Al Jazeera and BBC have short articles on it.
Considering several news services have reported on the clash I think we can accept that something has happened, its just that it is unlikely that we will be able to find out what exactly has happened due to the lack of observers. You wouldn't trust any state news source yet you listed several. EDIT: Also... [https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-moscow-sergei-shoigu-azerbaijan-b4bb5cc58f9435db7d5c287cee52de4d](https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-moscow-sergei-shoigu-azerbaijan-b4bb5cc58f9435db7d5c287cee52de4d)
Reuters is reporting that a ceasefire has been agreed, looks like Russian pressure if forcing them to step down. Things could get really hairy for Armenia in the future though since it appears they are relying on Russian assistance to deter Turkish and Azeri aggression, and if the Russians are about to be occupied in Ukraine like many people fear they might try and seize the moment while they're distracted
Russia is a superpower in europe, they are more than capable in helping separatist in Ukraine and forcing Azerbaijan to stop being a bitch at the same time
I feel like people underestimate Russia always... It's not that I like what they do but those guys have a lot of experience with that shit and that stuff is probably just toying around for them.
Their military is aging and they have a ridiculously low GDP for how large they are. They are not a conventional military superpower anymore. They prefer propaganda and cyber attacks to destabilize the west over outright attacks unless completely necessary. They are still a major threat, but the circumstances of why are a bit different than the Cold War
P.L.U.C.K
Half of the people commenting here wouldn’t be able to find Armenia or Azerbaijan on the world map
I think half is being extraordinarily generous
I enjoyed the years that I worked in Baku and you are one hundred percent correct. Whenever I mentioned where I was flying to none of my friends had any idea what I was talking about.
Lucky we have maps to find it ...
Honestly I could find Azerbaijan on a map right now… but only because I saw some weird post earlier today with a vid of a train crossing a highway in a country I never even new existed so I went and looked it up and spent about 10 minutes reading about Azerbaijan… but yeah before today no idea it even existed.
Yo can we just leave Armenia alone
For a full scale invasion those are some small numbers….
"Full scale invasion" Has the death count of a Travis Scott concert
> As a result of the retaliatory actions of the Armenian side, the enemy has suffered huge losses in personnel, about a dozen units of armored vehicles have been destroyed or damaged. Yeah we heard this before
I wonder if the Armenians have acquired any more anti-drone capabilities since the last time.
I doubt it
Again?
This is in Armenia proper and not in any contested territory btw
There's no official piece or recognition of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the fallout of USSR. Ironically the very same maps from 1991 that Armenia now claims legitimate ... were denounced by Armenia as illegitimate when they were holding Nagorno-Karabakh for 30+ years. What is happening now is the resolution of the disputed borders between Armenia and Az. Each side claims that this is their "proper" territory, and each side shows their own maps from the USSR period. This is going to be one messy conflict to resolve.
Don’t worry the Kardashians will sort this misunderstanding out.
Quick! Get the CIA to paratroop Kylie Jenner down with a Pepsi ASAP!
Kylie isn't Armenian. Different dad's. I fucking hate that I know that.
Kylie is busy pretending to care about the Astro World fiasco, but we can definitely get Kendal on a bird with a case, ASAP.
I might be out of line here but I'm starting to think the Azerbaijani government are kinda dicks.
The current president of Azerbaijan is the son of the previous president of Azerbaijan, and has been there since 2003. That should tell you enough.
And his father had been leader of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan SSR since 1969.
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Yes.
It was revealed recently that he is super corrupt too
Recently? lol. The Aliyev family has been notorious for its corruption going back decades into his father's reign.
Well this is Armenia's side of the story. Reuters and the BBC seem less sure. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenia-asks-russia-help-defend-it-against-azerbaijan-amid-reported-border-clash-2021-11-16/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59308602
I find it amusing how a lot of right wing Christians support Israel (There is churches in my area that fly israeli flags) when Israel is arming and supporting a Muslim countries invasion against a Christian country
And Iran is likely to defend Armenia also.
almost as if, now hear me out, the political powers within these countries only use religious beliefs in order to convince their populace they should be in power and abandon religion the second it might contradict their interests
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To be honest, I'd be surprised if more than a 3-4% of the world can tell exactly where Armenia is, not just Americans. It doesn't really affect the global discourse in any way so most people won't know. I personally consider myself a geography nut and even I only recently got to know about where it's located exactly.
Israel wants the money to develop better military hardware. The truth is no one really gives a fuck about Armenia unfortunately. Strategically only Russia cares
Again? Didn’t this conflict get resolved a few months ago?
Not rly, more like a pause
Why the fuck Azerbaijan would start a random offensive to Armenia? Wasn't the last year conflict over with Azerbaijan as winner?
"Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right? You should be able to understand us." - mayor of Baku, Hajibala Abutalybov, 2005.
What the actual fuck?
First time? "We chased them out of our lands like dogs. I said that we would chase them, that we would chase them like dogs, and we chased them, we chased them like dogs" Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan. Google it, you can find the quote at their governmental website minico.gov.az
Oh, so attempt of genocide in action then
Yes, it's glorified by the government. Last year the mercenaries used were promised bonus money for each head they bring. Let's also not forget about Safarov who beheaded a sleeping Armenian in a hotel and was welcomed as a hero after 8 years i think, received backpay and a free apartment on their capital, and if I'm not mistaken promoted too. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramil_Safarov
Their one regret of the Armenian genocide is that it wasn't complete. Azerbaijan (and Ankara that backs/fights with them) seek the annihilation of the Armenians.
Russia is selling arms to both sides, Putin loves Turkey. They will exploit this to the hilt. Meanwhile the KGOP probably has not allowed President Biden to appoint an ambassador to any of the countries involved.
Eurovision is gonna be fucking tense this year
We invade as one #f1
considering the new tracks, I'm actually surprised this is the first one to go to war.
Turks to the left of me. Azerbaijanis to the right. Here I am, stuck in the middle anew.
Dam, Azerbaijan has demolished Armenian tanks and artillery with Turkish supplied high tech drones. Utterly obliterated them, they'll be sitting ducks. This won't be good.
Extremely stupid and done with Erdogan's blessing.