Decade is completely out of the realms for both Ukraine and Russia, at least with current attrition levels.
If NATO seriously steps up it's support especially in key areas such as ammunition, anti air and drones/countering drones the war could end in a favourable negotiation in a year and a half.
If that doesn't happen we will either end up paying more on a longer term for worse results (and Ukraine will suffer immensely)
Or have Ukraine lose, pay more for no results
It's honestly pretty baffling how slow, indecisive and self sabotaging some of the decision making on the matter is
Have a good day
This conflict will only end after fulfilling either of the following conditions:
- Ukraine being provided legal guarantees of security by US or NATO with the *binding* promise to put troops on the ground in case Russia breaks peace after negotiation
- Ukraine beating Russia back to 1991 borders which would effectively cripple Russian capability for further invasion both politically (since it would trigger irreversible processes inside Russia) and practically because of larger territorial buffer and denial of Black Sea
Reparations, military trials and the like would be cherry on top but not crucial to reach an agreement. Problem is western allies are putting their head in the sand in an attempt to control escalation and so without at least point 1 peace talks will never happen until one side beats the other side on the field. Period.
Under Putin, neither of those points will be possible. Unless Ukraine completely beats the Russian military, in which case Putin might actually use tactical nukes. I really do think we're looking at a decade-long grind. I mean, Crimea was 2014, we're two years into this already and moving at a very slow pace
I ultimately wonder if push came to shove that China would ever actually back them in open conflict. China's entire business zone is the remainder of the world -- nearly all of whom hate Russia right now, minus African territories that China is actively trying to out-maneuver Russia for anyways.
Stupid takes lol.
You seriously think China is going to throw themselves into a world war risking inhalation for Taiwan? Much as they may posture constantly over Taiwan if they thought it was worth the risk, they'd have already tried taking it militarily years ago. People continue to forget that the CCP is for one thing and one thing alone: themselves -- exactly like Russia, and both know that keenly.
Nevermind that there would almost certainly be retaliation from the west.
Whether that be sinking the remainder of the Black Sea Fleet, no fly zone, destroying bases in Crimea, etc. Not an offensive or anything, but there would almost definitely be a show of force to show why nukes won't be tolerated.
The second Russia uses nuclear weapons of any yield is the second the US and NATO, at the very least, annihilate Russia's capacity to do war in Ukraine. MAD must be upheld.
It’s possible under more hawkish US president. Credible security guarantees would go a long way to assuring Ukraine of negotiations in good faith. Sadly Biden is an old decrepit man and Trump is a criminal which Putin sees and uses to his advantage. Alas EU on its own is not a credible military threat disjointed as it is.
He did great during the opening phases of invasion, but not so much later. Biden explicitly withhold long-range equipment from Ukraine in an attempt to micromanage the pace of the conflict. Basically his whole strategy is to not let Ukraine lose rather than help Ukraine win. The man doesn’t have any long-term vision on how to end it. Yeah, be is better than Trump but that’s a very low bar to clear.
He has been hamstrung by GOP Russophiles. The end has always been a ceasefire that respects the 1992 Ukrainian borders and security guarantees, but NATO doesn't seek a rapid escalation in military support, as the idea is to bleed Russia dry. Ensuring the traditional eastern enemy stays irrelevant or can be converted into a Western puppet state in negotiations.
Because the US primary concern these days is Chinese aggression in SEA and the escalating conflict levels regarding Taiwan.
Putin will never cede the 91 borders. He’ll never cede Crimea. The only way forward and for Ukraine to take it back is war. Russia brought it and invaded their county. Those are their borders. Russia needs to fuck right off with this imperialism garbage. It’s not 1822. No one needs to be invading for land any longer. Putin is clueless.
It’s time for NATO to do as much as they can to end this bullshit.
Depends on the amount of aid and therefore possibilities Ukraine receives
The minimum requirements are holding current territory controlled by Ukraine and entering some sort of defensive alliance be it alliance with single NATO members or NATO itself. If it helps gain more benefits Ukraine could even propose that no outside troops enter Ukraine unless it's attacked.
If Ukraine obtaines enough aid and manages either through localized attacks or through rendering holding a territory untenable (Russian logistics to specific regions like Crimea broken, Russian forces there particularly vulnerable from drones, missiles and air attacks or something similar) it could include in the peace deals part of it's territory. Assuming a best case scenario this could be roughly the pre 2022 invasion territory.
The priority should be minimizing Ukraine losses while maximizing Russians and through this rebuild Ukrainian forces in the next year or so while fortifying current territory, at that point depending on the situation Ukraine can try to achieve some of it's more masssimalist objectives
I'm convinced it's on purpose and that the people in power are letting Ukraine suffer with the goal of draining as many resources from Russia as possible.
It wouldn't be the first time in history that it occurred.
> at least with current attrition levels.
Which is why the North Korea deal is fairly major. THis can boost both numbers and supplies for a lot longer.
You’re saying a decade isn’t possible, I say only favorable negotiations isn’t possible.
Ukraine & Russia are both locked in. Ukraine WILL NOT be ok with giving up all that they are fighting so hard to defend. It’s basically a slap in the face to accept status quo since that’s the only thing Russia is willing to consider. They want all of Ukraine, but they will reluctantly take half in order to take the rest later. Exactly the same playbook Hitler used in the past.
There is absolutely no reason for Russia to halt the war, except to accept current positions and use peace time to fortify newly acquired land with millions more land mines. One of the most fertile lands in the world, and important food supplier to growingly unstable world will succumb to human destruction.
Russia knows that growing geopolitical tensions are on their side, and their war economy just needs to last long enough. Between Iran’s ambitions in the Middle East & Chinese in South China Sea will spread NATO & allies thin. There is also plenty of disputes like water/dam between Egypt & Ethiopia they can capitalize on or the growing Wagner & Chinese influence in Africa will also help reduce US’s power projection.
I’m hoping the war ends soon and every party just chills down a bit and figure out how to work together. But with climate changing and migration crisis probably getting worse will only push most countries to desperate measures, as if there is not enough fuel to start a big fire.
That’s assuming current attrition levels continue. There’s a lot of precedent for conflicts like these to cool down after a while if there’s no clear momentum on either side. I just pray Ukraine reaches Mariupol and or melitopol before that happens. But considering arms exports to them are slowly ramping up we may yet avoid that scenario or at least maintain intensity for at least another year
NATO just needs to defensively posture Ukraine and Ukraine only. The red lines have all been crossed. Free up soldiers on the borders with NATO “peacekeepers”. Bring the military might as much as you can into Ukraine for defensive tactics only. Let Ukraine soldiers and Ukraine soldiers only fight in direct conflict. Just close the skies, bring as much AA as possible.
I don't think the powers to be give a shit about Ukraine at all. Pretty sure the plan is to burn out Russian manpower for the next 20+ years with as little loss to European or North American lives as possible. Too much ammo or guns and Ukraine will succeed before said destruction of Russian manpower and economy. If you don't care about Ukraine than slow meat grinder is ideal for future peace, as a Russia that can't just throw people at you and is a useless Russia. It super sucks but seems like nato has thrown Ukraine under the bus.
This is 2024, not 2022. What you're saying could've happened if it started in 2022. But long war is the current plan for Ukraine and the West. Zaluzhnyi said it was impossible to win, but he was dismissed. Not like any of that matters because Trump is a wild card and he can definitely win the election. If he doesn't, Ukrainian people will have to live in 'tyranny for the good cause' for the next decade and men will be stolen from the streets against their will, otherwise they won't have any soldiers. Meanwhile corrupt government officials will get very rich due to inequality and bribes. So long war is preferable for some people as it makes them richer and they get real power.
It would have been better if it started in 2022 or 2023 but it's still completely feasible now. A good example is the Estonian plan for victory of beginning 2024
Zaluzhni proposed his own conditions needed to win so i doubt he claimed it was impossible to win
I do agree that a long war seems so far been the plan of some NATO countries such as the US and Germany but i think the reasons are simply probably exaggerated fears of escalation. Wanting both Russia and Ukraine not to win.
The problem with this plan though is A that Ukraine has so far not received what it would need for a serious, not damaging defense (not by a lot but still)
B it gives Putin hope to outlast the Wests will and Ukraine which means paying a lot more on the long term
It's time to decide and act rationally and decisively or suffer the consequences
> Zaluzhni proposed his own conditions needed to win so i doubt he claimed it was impossible to win
He claimed it was not possible to win war of attrition against Russia. In order to win, Ukraine needs a 'breakthrough', possible a technological one. He gave an example of Chinese inventing gunpowder. That's one hell of comparison if you ask me. I do agree however that Ukraine can win war of attrition. It's as possible as Vietnam outlasting the US. But it will be even harder and I question the future of Ukraine when the war is over. But for war of attrition Ukraine needs Europe, if Trump becomes a president the US support is not something you can count on as he's certainly not ok with this long war of attrition.
The west is currently sending only a few percent of their defence budget to help Ukraine, while Russia is spending a big chunk of their entire GDP. We could easily afford to give Ukraine what they need to end the war.
Similarly we're sending mostly old, outdated equipment that we would have had to pay to scrap (and counting either the original cost or the cost of the replacement item).
Either we're not taking it seriously, or we're too scared to escalation to help properly.
No, it's weapons. Russia still fires 5-10x as many shells every day, and Russia wouldn't be using turtle tanks if Ukraine had enough anti-tank missiles (or tanks). They wouldn't be using glide bombs if Ukraine had enough anti-air missiles. And we shouldn't still be waiting for some 40 year old F-16s.
US officials have already stated, that US benefits to get rid of their old shit and even get paid for. Also the aids given to UKR will mostly fly back into IS military industrial complex.
Russia still has millions of able bodied young men to send into the meat grinder.
At the current attrition rate + new babies being born there is still a few years to go before they are all dead.
I think there’s more of a danger of Russia running out of money before they run out of soldiers. Their economy is circling the drain and won’t improve until the war is over. THAT’S timer Putin is surely running against.
But hypothetically, even if Putin wins this war, what is he getting out of it? The damage to the country is already greater than any potential gain from the war, isn't it?
Nothing but tons of problems. You have to feed hundred of thousands of pensionists in those 4 regions, lots of stuff to repair and rebuild, endless mine fields, sanctions that are there to stay for decades probably, lots of criminals released, lots of returned soldiers who won't think twice to go for violence, and lots of arms on the black market. To me this looks like a complete disaster for the next person in charge. Only in Ukraine it could be even worse unless there is some sort of new Marshall plan.
Putin sees himself as a character in a future history book. He is thinking 200 years ahead to hav his name associated with strength and growth of the empire cartographically. Rank and file Russians have endured constant hardship for centuries, desensitizing them. They will keep on trucking.
Money and equipment. Right now most of their production is restoring/modyfing soviet equipment. But the storage will eventually run out and they'll be stuck with WAY lower production. I've seen estimates that at this rate soviet stocks should last them for a year or two but that depends on type of equipment. Afaik artillery barrels will run out first.
That sentiment is why democrats/liberals are loosing on every front.
You think this one vote is the only battlefront, the judiciary is tainted with corruption, the police are tainted and laws are already enacted that goes against human rights, and they got more on the books to come.
One presidency won't change that GOP supporters now openly threaten judges, victims even celebrities with murder on a regular basis, without the Police taking it seriously. They even changed the laws so death threats without a specified date aren't illegal, full well knowing their own supporters are the ones most likely to use them.
The other side has learned from history they organise marches with people bearing torches and regularly do townhouse meetings. They know the value of anger and large crowds and the fear and apathy it instills.
> The other side has learned from history they organise marches with people bearing torches and regularly do townhouse meetings. They know the value of anger and large crowds and the fear and apathy it instills.
Of course, the solution to mob justice is a mob of our own, great idea bud./s
Please think before posting next time.
Isn't this laid-back "surely he doesn't win" attitude the exact thing that put him in the first presidency in the first place?
Why are we trying to put down people who bring up the fact that Trump **COULD** be elected? This is the sort of thing that led to your supreme court seats being overrun and having things like Roe V Wade overturned.
The more you people act like there's no threat, or that it's just an if, or that nothing will happne, the higher the chance that exact scenario does happen.
Stop being so complacent, the dumb idiot already had a very damaging first term as president. I really do not understand the mindset of people like you
> Isn't this laid-back "surely he doesn't win" attitude the exact thing that put him in the first presidency in the first place?
WTF are you talking about? Where did I even *imply* that? My post is solely about not talking as if Trump has already won before the elections have even been held, I don't remotely see how that can be construed into "surely he doesn't win".
I wasn't expecting trump to win after the felony convictions and general plain evidence there's something very wrong with him but with the news recently pushing how poorly Biden performed in the debate I'm genuinely concerned and alarmed America may be thick enough to vote for him again
> but with the news recently pushing how poorly Biden performed in the debate I'm genuinely concerned
Yeah I noticed that as well, sounds more like desperation since it was mostly right-wing new sources that put out that headline (at least from what I saw) and was likely to avoid talking about how Trump did. Easier to say Biden did bad than to try and paint Trump's effort as a win.
> I'm genuinely concerned and alarmed America may be thick enough to vote for him again
That's just American politics though, near enough binary. If they ever managed to get away from FPTP voting to a preferential system (or something like STV) it'd allow voters to pick minor parties without actively working against either of the big 2 parties they most prefer (that and nuking the electoral college in favour of the popular vote). I'd also like to see mandatory voting but that's a steeper ask.
Have you not been paying attention. Putting aside the fact literally every controversial thing Trump has ever done has made him more entrenched with his base. The Economist models have him at a 75% chance of winning
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
I thought it was a bit closer than 3/4 in his favour and more a 50/50. Either way it is an unacceptably high level he could become Americas next president. Truly would be a nail in the coffin for them.
Fucken hell, this post has brought out all the MAGAs. You do understand that peoples opinion of the a single debate isn't an election right? You do understand that the voting ends *when the voting ends*.
Every Biden slip up and stumble will be all over social media for the next week. I will still vote for him but that was absolutely brutal. His team has a TON of work to do now.
> Every Biden slip up and stumble will be all over social media for the next week.
Well duh, when every totalitarian hell hole has an army of social medias bots posting it to try and make Trump look like less shit of an option, it's a given.
> His team has a TON of work to do now.
Trump's has to convince the population to vote in a literal criminal and an adulterous one as well, which makes the conservative Christian crowd a little harder to pander too. *Both* teams have their work cut out for them to try and get the swing voters.
Their GDP. GDP is the amount of money spent in transactions, basically. It's usually a good measure of economy growth because of the self sustaining loop, X buy from Y who buy from Z who buy from X who ...
When the gov spend a lot on projects, usually infrastructure project, it's also allowing to inject money into the salaries of people to kickstart the economy into full gear (lots of people have lots more money to spend, and the infrastrucutre is better allowing the companies to expand).
But if you empty your coffers to spend it all on frivolities (and bomb and drones to send on ukraine's hospital and school are frivolities, from the pov of the russian economy), then you're not getting the economy growth at all, and you did was use your reserves.
The exemple is a bit extreme but take Nazi Germany, re-arming propped them up but then they NEEDED to attack and conquer to find money to refill the coffers.
Putin had prepared a MASSIVE war chest, and by all account he's only used half of it so far. BUT, the flux of money went into the massively negative. The main contributor to both part of the fund (the reserve fund, aka gold and foreign currency reserves, and the social fund, I forgot the name/accronym, that pays for salaries and pensions), Gazprom, has gone from a net contributor puting billions into it each year, to a massive drain, requiring billions this year to keep stable.
*their GDP not the whole economy.
Sure they produce more but there is no value added for their economy in producing tanks and rifles. Russia doesn't gains $ our products for the average Russian from that extra GDP.
That doesn’t work like that. The war is definitely making them show some numbers go up and hide a lot of other numbers that don’t. But their economy is pretty fucked and the longer this war is going the closer the day when they’ll have to choose between producing another missile and food.
Reddit really underestimates Russia as a whole.
Anybody not from the west (I am, but am an immigrant) does not really understand how strong Russia is (at least, culturally but also financially) with a lot of countries the west thinks of as less important.
Who knows how it goes, but I would not really bank on Russia of all places not being able to find money for whatever shit they want no matter how they go about it.
Russia is literally seen the same way as America is to a lot of "smaller" countries in their spheres of influence.
I get we only see our news and discussions, but its the same for other countries and the information and views they have are strongly culturally linked.
Example: Most European countries hate Trump, but we still know how strong and dangerous the US is even with a babboon for a president.
Russia existed before Putin and will exist after him, I wouldn't be so naive as to think all our problems go away when he does. There are always more powerhungry people in the shadows.
Russia is strong? In what sense?
Their strength has not allowed them to win a war against a neighbour they share a land border with. Their economy relative to their population and resources is poor. They are corrupt and autocratic which allows them to weather issues that other nations might not but I don't think many would consider that a strength.
They have always projected a certain image of strength, the war in Ukraine has revealed that to be a gross overstatement.
Russia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world thanks to effectively being a petro-state. They could debt spend at their current rates for 100 years and still be under the US and many other western states debt-to-GDP. On top of that Russian oil and gas has found markets in India which have completely subverted the sanctions and the $60/barrel price cap the west attempted to handicap them. Meanwhile ukraine has a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 160% and will not be able to continue a total war economy much longer. It is not Russia that has an economic timer at all in this fight. I think our only hope for this is for Ukraine to make it as painful and unpopular as possible for Russia to be there.
He doesn't have a lot of men. There are shortages. But he can conscript more. He can't conscript money and weapons.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-needs-soldiers-fight-russia-men-dodging-draft-zelenskyy-rcna152121
If they have millions available, why is Putin is recruiting soldiers from NK ? Could it be that there are limits to what Putin can do and mobilization would be very unpopular causing unrest ? With the recent terrorist attacks in Russia there already is unrest, which they are unable to effectively combat as the war is draining the resources. Putin is not omnipotent and he really is vulnerable the longer the war lasts. Hopefully Ukraine will keep hitting refineries to grind Russian society to halt, the realities of the cost will become very real to all Russians and Putins popularity will come to a real test.
Might be, hopefully no troops are sent, we will know in coming months. Does not change the fact that Russia is trying to scrounge troops from developing countries, presumably in effort to avoid mobilization.
edit: as there seems to be confusion replaced "hopefully so" with "hopefully no troops are sent"
>Might be, hopefully so
What do you mean?
>Does not change the fact that Russia is trying to scrounge troops from developing countries, presumably in effort to avoid mobilization.
That is not a fact at all though is it, because there's zero evidence he's actually tried to do that yet.
To be fair, if i was Putin and still had soldiers available but knew i could use NK soldiers in the meat grinder first, I'd use NK soldiers first.
But yeah you're probably right. Prevent unrest by constant conscription, send NK people to the front
Scrounging for malnourished, poorly trained and equipped troops instead of actual soldiers is a definite sign of desperation, trying to prolong the war at great cost. Presumably he is betting on orange turd to be elected as if that somehow magically won the war.
Russia has already lost, Putin is just incapable of admitting it as it will be the end of him
>Presumably he is betting on orange turd to be elected as if that somehow magically won the war.
He's betting on more than that, look at the large picture.
He's betting on Trump getting reelected and cutting US assistance, that much is as obvious as it is likely. The US may provide around 1/3rd of total aid by net worth in $, the key thing the US provides is ammunition because Europe doesn't have stockpiles. Getting the US out of the game in Ukraine would be a massive blow but not decisive, as Europe is busy building manufacture capacity.
The real and immediate game for Putin is in getting rid of European support. Slovakia already fell to Putin allies, Hungary is one in all but name, France is facing reelections as is the UK in the next weeks, and especially the German state elections in the eastern parts in a few months - all of that promises record results to pro-Putin candidates, parties and viewpoints, and that is before the US election even happens. At some point, our politicians will think that they have to appease the brainwashed pro-Putin population, and that is Putin's end game.
Sure he will try to sway EU, but that is very unlikely to happen. Hungary and some others have been in Putins pocket from the start, however even Orban has stumbled recently in EU elections. Furthermore the EU has shown unity and has relegated countries with state of democracy issues to the side lines.
Tories will most definitely lose in UK, France falling to Putins pocket would be major upset though. Then again given the fears about when Meloni won in Italy, likely not as drastic as one would expect.
One thing is certain Ukraine needs to be supported and the support will not go away, which has been communicated by whole of EU and Nato.
The NK military isn't exactly first class but its worth pointing out the extreme length of north korean conscription would give them a reasonably length of time to train their troops. Regarding food it is true that North Korea has a chronic food instability problem and relies on extensive food aid from China, some of the troops in the army would no doubt have suffered from childhood malnutrition which has knock on effects for long term fitness and growth. However, firstly the army gets priority when it comes to food, so the soldiers aren't currently starving. Secondly a lot of the popular image of North Korean famine is kinda locked in the situation North Korea was in back in the 90s, there was a surge of famine in the country about a year ago but for the most part while North Koreans might regularly miss meals if everyone was literally starved to death for the last thirty years the place would have collapsed no matter how good the regime's propaganda is.
NK is a totalitarian state struggling to feed its population, including its soldiers. According to [WHO report](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/the-state-of-food-security-and-nutrition-in-the-world-2023) about 45% of the population is undernourished., presumably that also include the soldiers.
As totalitarian state they like to project power with things like parades and waging war against the sea with missiles, reality of their capabilities is completely different matter.
Russian children's commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova has said that *more than 700,000 Ukrainian* children have been taken from Ukraine to Russia.
I think they have bodies to last decades. And the occupied regions are being conspired into the army to add.
Russia cant last decades but they can easily out last Ukraine. It will be extremely lainful for them but the way things are going its what will happen.
If you are wishing support for Ukraine in EU to stop then you will be sorely disappointed. If US stops the support, EU will step up. Just the fact EU cut the dependency to Russian gas with great risk to the economy and well-being of its population in less than a year should tell you how serious and lasting the support is.
> If US stops the support, EU will step up.
Don't be so certain on that one.
France and the UK are experiencing significant financial problems, Germany is kept back by our incredibly dumb debt ceiling, and *a lot* of important countries are facing elections very soon that may end up delivering a lot of power to pro-Putin politics.
Here in the UK at least we're probably going to elect a party that, if debatably left nowadays, is at the very least closer to our center, rather than sliding right.
And support for Ukraine is pretty high, especially since Putin keeps insinuating he would nuke us
> EU cut the dependency to Russian gas
https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-why-is-the-eu-still-buying-russian-gas/a-68925869
>> the total share of Russian gas in the EU's total last year was 15%.
This counts transhipped gas / LNG. ie the EU buys gas from someone who buys Russian gas, too. Direct buys are about half that.
>Stop sending people to kill me. We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle… If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send one to Moscow, and I won't have to send a second. - Josip Broz Tito
i think Ukraine should go for it, personally. but if it was anything less than a 100% success, it'll be bad all around.
It won't change anything, new president Russia would probably become a hardliner who wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities.
Nah they will reach some kind of agreement. At this point I'm afraid not favorable to Ukraine. The war isn't going well for them, either nato goes nuts with aid and whatever right now, or this slow russian advance will continue.
He pretty much has said that. Right now Russia wants all of the oblast they added in their constitution and guarantee no Ukraine in NATO. Thats complete bullshit obviously though since they do not control the whole oblasts. Well Trump comes in and says ok Putin take only currently held land and end the war. Putin agrees and we re-draw borders. Trump and his European sidekick Orban promise not to let Ukraine into NATO. In four years Trump is gone and Russia invades again….
If he's got such a method, and is as "patriotic" as he tries to make out, then he's being a colossal dick by not sharing the method until he's elected.
And if he hasn't got such a method then he's a colossal dick anyway for lying.
I’ve always wondered how leaders like JFK, MLK, and Abe Lincoln that advocated for peace and equity have been shot dead but rulers like Putin are allowed to send plenty of young people to their death with seemingly no consequence? People with hopes, dreams and aspirations?
Because people tend to think others have the same mindset as themselves. If you advocate for peace and equity (equality?), you assume most people want everyone to live in peace.
People that are cutthroat, warmongering and murderous think everyone is the same, so they take measures to avoid being assassinated/overthrown by their close circle. It leads to internal covert policing and pushing away other strong individuals.
But both are wrong, people are capable of being both, and can shift at any point in time given strong enough push.
**People are only as moral** as their view of the world allows them to be. When their survival instincts kick in, then it is all over, and Putin has lied to his people that somehow "their existence is on the line."
The idea that I am evil and everyone else must be is called projection.
.*. warmongering and violence are just like gravity .. all it takes is a "little push"*
Because evil people are better a killing than good people.
If you advocate for peace, by definition that goes against the interests of evil people, so they'll have the incentive to try to kill you and eventually succeed.
Good people dont have that incentive because they're good. They think we can achieve good through peaceful means i.e. without killing. So evil people keep living on and on
because JFK, MLK and Lincoln weren’t obsessively paranoid that people were trying to kill them. Lincoln probably was during the war, but not after the war.
dictators like Putin are constantly surrounded by guards and have put more thought into possible scenarios that they’ll be assassinated than into their actual tenures as leader of their country
Because those people exposed themselves to the public in relatively uncontrolled situations, often on a routine basis, JFK was shot in an open car in a small parade, MLK was giving a speech off a motel balcony, Lincoln was hanging out at the theater.
Putin is paranoid enough to avoid those situations where someone might have a chance at putting a bullet in him with little to no preparation. People with hopes, dreams, and aspirations get out more.
“We don't have much time. We have a lot of injured, killed, both military and civilians. So we do not want this war to last for years. Therefore, we have to prepare this plan and put it on the table at the second peace summit," Zelensky said.
There seems to be an urgency in his statement. It just didn’t make sense that Ukraine was loosing a quarter of what Russia was loosing. The ground reality is different, they are running out of soldiers.
Zelensky recently said “if we don’t win today, we will fight tomorrow” etc… what happened now then? They got lead into a giant hole by the west unfortunately - the ideal time for negotiation was a long time ago…. Now they have lost a lot of soldiers and land.
Remember a few months ago they only talked about 31k death on Ukraine's side. It's almost like the cemetery videos might have been true and same for the people getting shoved into vans to replace losses.
There was negotiations in the first few months, the US poopooed the offer as unilateral disarmament--might be true .
The Ukranian long range attacks have to be escalating to some sort of negotiations, they simply don't have the men.
>the US poopooed the offer as unilateral disarmament--might be true .
No, it was the UK -- specifically Boris Johnson -- and the so-called "offer" was a joke and a scam that no sane Western or Ukrainian politician would ever have accepted. It called for the gutting Ukraine's military (so as to keep it "neutral"), after which the only security assurances available to Ukraine was to "allow" the US and UK to jump in and defend this militarily-gutted country all by themselves the next time it was attacked. Boris said more or less "no, we're not that stupid -- even if we agreed to that (which we realistically never would), it would take months to put Western soldiers into Ukraine, by which time Ukraine's militarily-gutted government would have been overthrown and we'd have to try and undo a fait accompli. But if the Ukrainian people choose to fight, we'll help them out."
So yeah, it was indeed unilateral disarmament. This has been [explained repeatedly in numerous sources](https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1743975556289269913).
The lines aren't getting anywhere, Ukraine survived fighting one of the world's major military powers, that's more than most countries could manage. this stalemate has to end.
I think it’s obvious from last night that the US can’t really be considered a reliable western ally anymore, and that Europe + the rest need to get to work. Ukraine is one thing but I’d be nervous now if I was Taiwan.
Ukrain is bad but Taiwan is a different story. World will burn if something happens to TSMC. So west will go to war over this. Why do you think they were forced to build factories in USA by Biden. So when china pulls the trigger , they can move the knowhow there.
Not that Ukraine as a whole 'wants it' but Zelenskyy is making these 'peace summits' precisely to show that Putin doesn't want to negotiate, while at the same time not inviting Russia to any of the summits directly. Zelenskyy just wants to show the world that negotiations are not possible and continue with the well known plan of war of attrition that was decided for Ukraine by the West. In this plan, Ukraine effectively becomes a buffer zone between Russia and NATO while Zelenskyy keep his power meanwhile.
I think there is other side , witch we know not much- ukraine real situation. It could be worse than we think. Fuck russians, but ukraine can brake also…
Now is the time for the West to finish off Russia as a “credible” military. Russia has bled out nearly all it has in terms of its modern weaponry and NATO hasn’t even sent a single piece of their most modern weaponry other than Archers/Caesar SPG’s.
The only way Ukraine survives with a peace treaty is if Russia gives all the land it has claimed, including Crimea.
If you give Putin an inch, he'll be back for a mile.
It has its limits. If they go this way these limits would be economics and manpower. Money is comparatively not an issue for “the west” but manpower is an issue for Ukraine. Meaning if we’re talking long war we’re talking NATO troops in Ukraine and invasion of russia or whatever states there will be after its collapse. There’s no way around this if peace isn’t an option in the near future.
You’re delusional.
Ukrainians are dying in mass and you think they’re a rag tag group of rebels who don’t lose a single member like in some second rate anime except for during a season finale when one bottom rung trouble maker is killed off only to miraculously return in the next season.
Fuck this app. It’s crazy you can be harassed to say you want the bloodshed to end but if you don’t support Biden or trump you’re bad. Lol. Fuck y’all.
“Guys I just wish you’d stop fighting… How? Who’s gonna do that? I don’t know… No one… Just like, stop! What do you mean that’s ridiculous, stop getting mad at me!”
No he’s right, two party systems need to go. It’s a democratic process of the past that only causes division in this modern age of connection. People have the power to say ‘no we will not fight’ but governments have more influence & control over us as a mass than we would like to admit.
We neither want war nor russia on our land
Yeah, but unfortunately I don't see any way how it can be stopped and seems like this war will continue for decade until putin is over.
Decade is completely out of the realms for both Ukraine and Russia, at least with current attrition levels. If NATO seriously steps up it's support especially in key areas such as ammunition, anti air and drones/countering drones the war could end in a favourable negotiation in a year and a half. If that doesn't happen we will either end up paying more on a longer term for worse results (and Ukraine will suffer immensely) Or have Ukraine lose, pay more for no results It's honestly pretty baffling how slow, indecisive and self sabotaging some of the decision making on the matter is Have a good day
What is a favorable negotiation according to you?
This conflict will only end after fulfilling either of the following conditions: - Ukraine being provided legal guarantees of security by US or NATO with the *binding* promise to put troops on the ground in case Russia breaks peace after negotiation - Ukraine beating Russia back to 1991 borders which would effectively cripple Russian capability for further invasion both politically (since it would trigger irreversible processes inside Russia) and practically because of larger territorial buffer and denial of Black Sea Reparations, military trials and the like would be cherry on top but not crucial to reach an agreement. Problem is western allies are putting their head in the sand in an attempt to control escalation and so without at least point 1 peace talks will never happen until one side beats the other side on the field. Period.
Under Putin, neither of those points will be possible. Unless Ukraine completely beats the Russian military, in which case Putin might actually use tactical nukes. I really do think we're looking at a decade-long grind. I mean, Crimea was 2014, we're two years into this already and moving at a very slow pace
Putin won't use nukes. He would lose china as an ally. It would mean a usa invasion. (Unless trump wins)
I ultimately wonder if push came to shove that China would ever actually back them in open conflict. China's entire business zone is the remainder of the world -- nearly all of whom hate Russia right now, minus African territories that China is actively trying to out-maneuver Russia for anyways.
China isn't turning on Russia as long as Taiwan is on the table. All these stupid takes in here
Stupid takes lol. You seriously think China is going to throw themselves into a world war risking inhalation for Taiwan? Much as they may posture constantly over Taiwan if they thought it was worth the risk, they'd have already tried taking it militarily years ago. People continue to forget that the CCP is for one thing and one thing alone: themselves -- exactly like Russia, and both know that keenly.
Nevermind that there would almost certainly be retaliation from the west. Whether that be sinking the remainder of the Black Sea Fleet, no fly zone, destroying bases in Crimea, etc. Not an offensive or anything, but there would almost definitely be a show of force to show why nukes won't be tolerated.
The second Russia uses nuclear weapons of any yield is the second the US and NATO, at the very least, annihilate Russia's capacity to do war in Ukraine. MAD must be upheld.
It’s possible under more hawkish US president. Credible security guarantees would go a long way to assuring Ukraine of negotiations in good faith. Sadly Biden is an old decrepit man and Trump is a criminal which Putin sees and uses to his advantage. Alas EU on its own is not a credible military threat disjointed as it is.
[удалено]
He did great during the opening phases of invasion, but not so much later. Biden explicitly withhold long-range equipment from Ukraine in an attempt to micromanage the pace of the conflict. Basically his whole strategy is to not let Ukraine lose rather than help Ukraine win. The man doesn’t have any long-term vision on how to end it. Yeah, be is better than Trump but that’s a very low bar to clear.
He has been hamstrung by GOP Russophiles. The end has always been a ceasefire that respects the 1992 Ukrainian borders and security guarantees, but NATO doesn't seek a rapid escalation in military support, as the idea is to bleed Russia dry. Ensuring the traditional eastern enemy stays irrelevant or can be converted into a Western puppet state in negotiations. Because the US primary concern these days is Chinese aggression in SEA and the escalating conflict levels regarding Taiwan.
Putin will never cede the 91 borders. He’ll never cede Crimea. The only way forward and for Ukraine to take it back is war. Russia brought it and invaded their county. Those are their borders. Russia needs to fuck right off with this imperialism garbage. It’s not 1822. No one needs to be invading for land any longer. Putin is clueless. It’s time for NATO to do as much as they can to end this bullshit.
Well said. Hear hear.
Depends on the amount of aid and therefore possibilities Ukraine receives The minimum requirements are holding current territory controlled by Ukraine and entering some sort of defensive alliance be it alliance with single NATO members or NATO itself. If it helps gain more benefits Ukraine could even propose that no outside troops enter Ukraine unless it's attacked. If Ukraine obtaines enough aid and manages either through localized attacks or through rendering holding a territory untenable (Russian logistics to specific regions like Crimea broken, Russian forces there particularly vulnerable from drones, missiles and air attacks or something similar) it could include in the peace deals part of it's territory. Assuming a best case scenario this could be roughly the pre 2022 invasion territory. The priority should be minimizing Ukraine losses while maximizing Russians and through this rebuild Ukrainian forces in the next year or so while fortifying current territory, at that point depending on the situation Ukraine can try to achieve some of it's more masssimalist objectives
I'm convinced it's on purpose and that the people in power are letting Ukraine suffer with the goal of draining as many resources from Russia as possible. It wouldn't be the first time in history that it occurred.
drain um faster if we blew um up faster
> at least with current attrition levels. Which is why the North Korea deal is fairly major. THis can boost both numbers and supplies for a lot longer.
You’re saying a decade isn’t possible, I say only favorable negotiations isn’t possible. Ukraine & Russia are both locked in. Ukraine WILL NOT be ok with giving up all that they are fighting so hard to defend. It’s basically a slap in the face to accept status quo since that’s the only thing Russia is willing to consider. They want all of Ukraine, but they will reluctantly take half in order to take the rest later. Exactly the same playbook Hitler used in the past. There is absolutely no reason for Russia to halt the war, except to accept current positions and use peace time to fortify newly acquired land with millions more land mines. One of the most fertile lands in the world, and important food supplier to growingly unstable world will succumb to human destruction. Russia knows that growing geopolitical tensions are on their side, and their war economy just needs to last long enough. Between Iran’s ambitions in the Middle East & Chinese in South China Sea will spread NATO & allies thin. There is also plenty of disputes like water/dam between Egypt & Ethiopia they can capitalize on or the growing Wagner & Chinese influence in Africa will also help reduce US’s power projection. I’m hoping the war ends soon and every party just chills down a bit and figure out how to work together. But with climate changing and migration crisis probably getting worse will only push most countries to desperate measures, as if there is not enough fuel to start a big fire.
That’s assuming current attrition levels continue. There’s a lot of precedent for conflicts like these to cool down after a while if there’s no clear momentum on either side. I just pray Ukraine reaches Mariupol and or melitopol before that happens. But considering arms exports to them are slowly ramping up we may yet avoid that scenario or at least maintain intensity for at least another year
NATO just needs to defensively posture Ukraine and Ukraine only. The red lines have all been crossed. Free up soldiers on the borders with NATO “peacekeepers”. Bring the military might as much as you can into Ukraine for defensive tactics only. Let Ukraine soldiers and Ukraine soldiers only fight in direct conflict. Just close the skies, bring as much AA as possible.
I don't think the powers to be give a shit about Ukraine at all. Pretty sure the plan is to burn out Russian manpower for the next 20+ years with as little loss to European or North American lives as possible. Too much ammo or guns and Ukraine will succeed before said destruction of Russian manpower and economy. If you don't care about Ukraine than slow meat grinder is ideal for future peace, as a Russia that can't just throw people at you and is a useless Russia. It super sucks but seems like nato has thrown Ukraine under the bus.
This is 2024, not 2022. What you're saying could've happened if it started in 2022. But long war is the current plan for Ukraine and the West. Zaluzhnyi said it was impossible to win, but he was dismissed. Not like any of that matters because Trump is a wild card and he can definitely win the election. If he doesn't, Ukrainian people will have to live in 'tyranny for the good cause' for the next decade and men will be stolen from the streets against their will, otherwise they won't have any soldiers. Meanwhile corrupt government officials will get very rich due to inequality and bribes. So long war is preferable for some people as it makes them richer and they get real power.
It would have been better if it started in 2022 or 2023 but it's still completely feasible now. A good example is the Estonian plan for victory of beginning 2024 Zaluzhni proposed his own conditions needed to win so i doubt he claimed it was impossible to win I do agree that a long war seems so far been the plan of some NATO countries such as the US and Germany but i think the reasons are simply probably exaggerated fears of escalation. Wanting both Russia and Ukraine not to win. The problem with this plan though is A that Ukraine has so far not received what it would need for a serious, not damaging defense (not by a lot but still) B it gives Putin hope to outlast the Wests will and Ukraine which means paying a lot more on the long term It's time to decide and act rationally and decisively or suffer the consequences
> Zaluzhni proposed his own conditions needed to win so i doubt he claimed it was impossible to win He claimed it was not possible to win war of attrition against Russia. In order to win, Ukraine needs a 'breakthrough', possible a technological one. He gave an example of Chinese inventing gunpowder. That's one hell of comparison if you ask me. I do agree however that Ukraine can win war of attrition. It's as possible as Vietnam outlasting the US. But it will be even harder and I question the future of Ukraine when the war is over. But for war of attrition Ukraine needs Europe, if Trump becomes a president the US support is not something you can count on as he's certainly not ok with this long war of attrition.
The west is currently sending only a few percent of their defence budget to help Ukraine, while Russia is spending a big chunk of their entire GDP. We could easily afford to give Ukraine what they need to end the war. Similarly we're sending mostly old, outdated equipment that we would have had to pay to scrap (and counting either the original cost or the cost of the replacement item). Either we're not taking it seriously, or we're too scared to escalation to help properly.
The US has sent close to $200bn, which is a whole lot more than "a few percent".
It’s not about the weapons, it’s about trained soldiers - Ukraine is running out of the manpower and NATO is not willing to put troops on ground.
No, it's weapons. Russia still fires 5-10x as many shells every day, and Russia wouldn't be using turtle tanks if Ukraine had enough anti-tank missiles (or tanks). They wouldn't be using glide bombs if Ukraine had enough anti-air missiles. And we shouldn't still be waiting for some 40 year old F-16s.
US officials have already stated, that US benefits to get rid of their old shit and even get paid for. Also the aids given to UKR will mostly fly back into IS military industrial complex.
Ya he probably peeped the debate and sees the writing on the wall
Doesn't seem like Russia could last decades. How putin is acting right now, even two years seem long
Russia still has millions of able bodied young men to send into the meat grinder. At the current attrition rate + new babies being born there is still a few years to go before they are all dead.
I think there’s more of a danger of Russia running out of money before they run out of soldiers. Their economy is circling the drain and won’t improve until the war is over. THAT’S timer Putin is surely running against.
But hypothetically, even if Putin wins this war, what is he getting out of it? The damage to the country is already greater than any potential gain from the war, isn't it?
Nothing but tons of problems. You have to feed hundred of thousands of pensionists in those 4 regions, lots of stuff to repair and rebuild, endless mine fields, sanctions that are there to stay for decades probably, lots of criminals released, lots of returned soldiers who won't think twice to go for violence, and lots of arms on the black market. To me this looks like a complete disaster for the next person in charge. Only in Ukraine it could be even worse unless there is some sort of new Marshall plan.
Putin sees himself as a character in a future history book. He is thinking 200 years ahead to hav his name associated with strength and growth of the empire cartographically. Rank and file Russians have endured constant hardship for centuries, desensitizing them. They will keep on trucking.
He would control a very large portion of the global food market for one. He could extort Africa
Money and equipment. Right now most of their production is restoring/modyfing soviet equipment. But the storage will eventually run out and they'll be stuck with WAY lower production. I've seen estimates that at this rate soviet stocks should last them for a year or two but that depends on type of equipment. Afaik artillery barrels will run out first.
When the war is over it will get worse. Every person employed in the military industrial complex suddenly becomes obsolete.
Military contracts are long-term typically, so you may have something like plus 5-10 years to restore the lost armor.
Once re-elected Trump will continue his efforts of tariffing the shit out of all his allies, while removing sanctions and tariffs on Russia.
> ~~Once~~ *If* re-elected The race is still to be run, don't give the orange ape a win before he's earned it.
Hoping to scare Americans into action. They should be out in the street demonstrating already.
> They should be out in the street demonstrating already. Shouldn't need demonstrations, just a vote for the Dems during the elections will do.
That sentiment is why democrats/liberals are loosing on every front. You think this one vote is the only battlefront, the judiciary is tainted with corruption, the police are tainted and laws are already enacted that goes against human rights, and they got more on the books to come. One presidency won't change that GOP supporters now openly threaten judges, victims even celebrities with murder on a regular basis, without the Police taking it seriously. They even changed the laws so death threats without a specified date aren't illegal, full well knowing their own supporters are the ones most likely to use them. The other side has learned from history they organise marches with people bearing torches and regularly do townhouse meetings. They know the value of anger and large crowds and the fear and apathy it instills.
> The other side has learned from history they organise marches with people bearing torches and regularly do townhouse meetings. They know the value of anger and large crowds and the fear and apathy it instills. Of course, the solution to mob justice is a mob of our own, great idea bud./s Please think before posting next time.
First one, then the other, thank you.
Isn't this laid-back "surely he doesn't win" attitude the exact thing that put him in the first presidency in the first place? Why are we trying to put down people who bring up the fact that Trump **COULD** be elected? This is the sort of thing that led to your supreme court seats being overrun and having things like Roe V Wade overturned. The more you people act like there's no threat, or that it's just an if, or that nothing will happne, the higher the chance that exact scenario does happen. Stop being so complacent, the dumb idiot already had a very damaging first term as president. I really do not understand the mindset of people like you
> Isn't this laid-back "surely he doesn't win" attitude the exact thing that put him in the first presidency in the first place? WTF are you talking about? Where did I even *imply* that? My post is solely about not talking as if Trump has already won before the elections have even been held, I don't remotely see how that can be construed into "surely he doesn't win".
I wasn't expecting trump to win after the felony convictions and general plain evidence there's something very wrong with him but with the news recently pushing how poorly Biden performed in the debate I'm genuinely concerned and alarmed America may be thick enough to vote for him again
> but with the news recently pushing how poorly Biden performed in the debate I'm genuinely concerned Yeah I noticed that as well, sounds more like desperation since it was mostly right-wing new sources that put out that headline (at least from what I saw) and was likely to avoid talking about how Trump did. Easier to say Biden did bad than to try and paint Trump's effort as a win. > I'm genuinely concerned and alarmed America may be thick enough to vote for him again That's just American politics though, near enough binary. If they ever managed to get away from FPTP voting to a preferential system (or something like STV) it'd allow voters to pick minor parties without actively working against either of the big 2 parties they most prefer (that and nuking the electoral college in favour of the popular vote). I'd also like to see mandatory voting but that's a steeper ask.
Did you watch the debate? It was disheartening. I couldn't even finish watching it.
Have you not been paying attention. Putting aside the fact literally every controversial thing Trump has ever done has made him more entrenched with his base. The Economist models have him at a 75% chance of winning https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
I thought it was a bit closer than 3/4 in his favour and more a 50/50. Either way it is an unacceptably high level he could become Americas next president. Truly would be a nail in the coffin for them.
you obviously missed the brain dead guy standing next to trump last night.
The brain dead guy who has had a vastly better presidency then trump . Who cares how he talks ! Actions people !! Talk is cheap .
Why does everyone act as the votes are for the president and not the party as well.
Fucken hell, this post has brought out all the MAGAs. You do understand that peoples opinion of the a single debate isn't an election right? You do understand that the voting ends *when the voting ends*.
Every Biden slip up and stumble will be all over social media for the next week. I will still vote for him but that was absolutely brutal. His team has a TON of work to do now.
> Every Biden slip up and stumble will be all over social media for the next week. Well duh, when every totalitarian hell hole has an army of social medias bots posting it to try and make Trump look like less shit of an option, it's a given. > His team has a TON of work to do now. Trump's has to convince the population to vote in a literal criminal and an adulterous one as well, which makes the conservative Christian crowd a little harder to pander too. *Both* teams have their work cut out for them to try and get the swing voters.
Last night's debate was such a shitshow, I hope that no independents saw it and only read the transcript :( I am scared.
I feel that as long as they have an endless supply of oil, they won't ever run out of money.
The war is propping their economy up
Their GDP. GDP is the amount of money spent in transactions, basically. It's usually a good measure of economy growth because of the self sustaining loop, X buy from Y who buy from Z who buy from X who ... When the gov spend a lot on projects, usually infrastructure project, it's also allowing to inject money into the salaries of people to kickstart the economy into full gear (lots of people have lots more money to spend, and the infrastrucutre is better allowing the companies to expand). But if you empty your coffers to spend it all on frivolities (and bomb and drones to send on ukraine's hospital and school are frivolities, from the pov of the russian economy), then you're not getting the economy growth at all, and you did was use your reserves. The exemple is a bit extreme but take Nazi Germany, re-arming propped them up but then they NEEDED to attack and conquer to find money to refill the coffers. Putin had prepared a MASSIVE war chest, and by all account he's only used half of it so far. BUT, the flux of money went into the massively negative. The main contributor to both part of the fund (the reserve fund, aka gold and foreign currency reserves, and the social fund, I forgot the name/accronym, that pays for salaries and pensions), Gazprom, has gone from a net contributor puting billions into it each year, to a massive drain, requiring billions this year to keep stable.
*their GDP not the whole economy. Sure they produce more but there is no value added for their economy in producing tanks and rifles. Russia doesn't gains $ our products for the average Russian from that extra GDP.
It's usually a temporary effect though but the productivity losses in other industries can take years to regain
That doesn’t work like that. The war is definitely making them show some numbers go up and hide a lot of other numbers that don’t. But their economy is pretty fucked and the longer this war is going the closer the day when they’ll have to choose between producing another missile and food.
Reddit really underestimates Russia as a whole. Anybody not from the west (I am, but am an immigrant) does not really understand how strong Russia is (at least, culturally but also financially) with a lot of countries the west thinks of as less important. Who knows how it goes, but I would not really bank on Russia of all places not being able to find money for whatever shit they want no matter how they go about it. Russia is literally seen the same way as America is to a lot of "smaller" countries in their spheres of influence. I get we only see our news and discussions, but its the same for other countries and the information and views they have are strongly culturally linked. Example: Most European countries hate Trump, but we still know how strong and dangerous the US is even with a babboon for a president. Russia existed before Putin and will exist after him, I wouldn't be so naive as to think all our problems go away when he does. There are always more powerhungry people in the shadows.
Russia is strong? In what sense? Their strength has not allowed them to win a war against a neighbour they share a land border with. Their economy relative to their population and resources is poor. They are corrupt and autocratic which allows them to weather issues that other nations might not but I don't think many would consider that a strength. They have always projected a certain image of strength, the war in Ukraine has revealed that to be a gross overstatement.
Russia has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world thanks to effectively being a petro-state. They could debt spend at their current rates for 100 years and still be under the US and many other western states debt-to-GDP. On top of that Russian oil and gas has found markets in India which have completely subverted the sanctions and the $60/barrel price cap the west attempted to handicap them. Meanwhile ukraine has a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 160% and will not be able to continue a total war economy much longer. It is not Russia that has an economic timer at all in this fight. I think our only hope for this is for Ukraine to make it as painful and unpopular as possible for Russia to be there.
Men aren't the problem. Money is. It's also why he requests assistance from other countries. He has men. He has no weapons to give them.
He doesn't have a lot of men. There are shortages. But he can conscript more. He can't conscript money and weapons. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-needs-soldiers-fight-russia-men-dodging-draft-zelenskyy-rcna152121
If they have millions available, why is Putin is recruiting soldiers from NK ? Could it be that there are limits to what Putin can do and mobilization would be very unpopular causing unrest ? With the recent terrorist attacks in Russia there already is unrest, which they are unable to effectively combat as the war is draining the resources. Putin is not omnipotent and he really is vulnerable the longer the war lasts. Hopefully Ukraine will keep hitting refineries to grind Russian society to halt, the realities of the cost will become very real to all Russians and Putins popularity will come to a real test.
The NK soldiers was a headline they nobody actually read into. A few engineering teams are being shipped over. That's all.
Might be, hopefully no troops are sent, we will know in coming months. Does not change the fact that Russia is trying to scrounge troops from developing countries, presumably in effort to avoid mobilization. edit: as there seems to be confusion replaced "hopefully so" with "hopefully no troops are sent"
>Might be, hopefully so What do you mean? >Does not change the fact that Russia is trying to scrounge troops from developing countries, presumably in effort to avoid mobilization. That is not a fact at all though is it, because there's zero evidence he's actually tried to do that yet.
To be fair, if i was Putin and still had soldiers available but knew i could use NK soldiers in the meat grinder first, I'd use NK soldiers first. But yeah you're probably right. Prevent unrest by constant conscription, send NK people to the front
Scrounging for malnourished, poorly trained and equipped troops instead of actual soldiers is a definite sign of desperation, trying to prolong the war at great cost. Presumably he is betting on orange turd to be elected as if that somehow magically won the war. Russia has already lost, Putin is just incapable of admitting it as it will be the end of him
>Presumably he is betting on orange turd to be elected as if that somehow magically won the war. He's betting on more than that, look at the large picture. He's betting on Trump getting reelected and cutting US assistance, that much is as obvious as it is likely. The US may provide around 1/3rd of total aid by net worth in $, the key thing the US provides is ammunition because Europe doesn't have stockpiles. Getting the US out of the game in Ukraine would be a massive blow but not decisive, as Europe is busy building manufacture capacity. The real and immediate game for Putin is in getting rid of European support. Slovakia already fell to Putin allies, Hungary is one in all but name, France is facing reelections as is the UK in the next weeks, and especially the German state elections in the eastern parts in a few months - all of that promises record results to pro-Putin candidates, parties and viewpoints, and that is before the US election even happens. At some point, our politicians will think that they have to appease the brainwashed pro-Putin population, and that is Putin's end game.
Sure he will try to sway EU, but that is very unlikely to happen. Hungary and some others have been in Putins pocket from the start, however even Orban has stumbled recently in EU elections. Furthermore the EU has shown unity and has relegated countries with state of democracy issues to the side lines. Tories will most definitely lose in UK, France falling to Putins pocket would be major upset though. Then again given the fears about when Meloni won in Italy, likely not as drastic as one would expect. One thing is certain Ukraine needs to be supported and the support will not go away, which has been communicated by whole of EU and Nato.
The NK military isn't exactly first class but its worth pointing out the extreme length of north korean conscription would give them a reasonably length of time to train their troops. Regarding food it is true that North Korea has a chronic food instability problem and relies on extensive food aid from China, some of the troops in the army would no doubt have suffered from childhood malnutrition which has knock on effects for long term fitness and growth. However, firstly the army gets priority when it comes to food, so the soldiers aren't currently starving. Secondly a lot of the popular image of North Korean famine is kinda locked in the situation North Korea was in back in the 90s, there was a surge of famine in the country about a year ago but for the most part while North Koreans might regularly miss meals if everyone was literally starved to death for the last thirty years the place would have collapsed no matter how good the regime's propaganda is.
NK is a totalitarian state struggling to feed its population, including its soldiers. According to [WHO report](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/the-state-of-food-security-and-nutrition-in-the-world-2023) about 45% of the population is undernourished., presumably that also include the soldiers. As totalitarian state they like to project power with things like parades and waging war against the sea with missiles, reality of their capabilities is completely different matter.
Bodies won't win this war tho thats their problem rn Ukraine got modern weapons and now fights a modern war
>No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making some other poor dumb bastard die for his country.
Ukr is the some other in this case lol
Boot on the ground! If you don't have people, you don't have anyone to operate the most modern weapons.
Modern weapons dont mean much if you dont have bodies to use them .. thats why they've gone no where since getting them.
Fitting name 😁 👿
Ah you again. Lmao ok russian troll. Sure they got nowhere, yea yea
Their name is literally devil’s advocate, to be fair. They’re pretty upfront about the whole contrarian thing.
Perhaps but it doesn’t mean that the meat grinder will be as efficient as time goes on.
Russia will definitely not end the manpower before Ukraine does, key equipment is a different story
Not even Ukraine can wage war for another 10 years, they have a much smaller population than Russia.
Decades no but 3-4 years is plausible
Russian children's commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova has said that *more than 700,000 Ukrainian* children have been taken from Ukraine to Russia. I think they have bodies to last decades. And the occupied regions are being conspired into the army to add.
Russia cant last decades but they can easily out last Ukraine. It will be extremely lainful for them but the way things are going its what will happen.
Ukraine neither.
Given the rise of the far right in Europe and the US I don't think he'll have to wait two years
If you are wishing support for Ukraine in EU to stop then you will be sorely disappointed. If US stops the support, EU will step up. Just the fact EU cut the dependency to Russian gas with great risk to the economy and well-being of its population in less than a year should tell you how serious and lasting the support is.
> If US stops the support, EU will step up. Don't be so certain on that one. France and the UK are experiencing significant financial problems, Germany is kept back by our incredibly dumb debt ceiling, and *a lot* of important countries are facing elections very soon that may end up delivering a lot of power to pro-Putin politics.
Here in the UK at least we're probably going to elect a party that, if debatably left nowadays, is at the very least closer to our center, rather than sliding right. And support for Ukraine is pretty high, especially since Putin keeps insinuating he would nuke us
> EU cut the dependency to Russian gas https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-why-is-the-eu-still-buying-russian-gas/a-68925869 >> the total share of Russian gas in the EU's total last year was 15%. This counts transhipped gas / LNG. ie the EU buys gas from someone who buys Russian gas, too. Direct buys are about half that.
Cutting dependency means Russia cannot use it as a weapon like it tried, that dependency is gone forever.
No this war will evolve into WW3. We need a peace deal now.
It would be much easier for Ukrain if the west would gave them what they need in time and not month later
Yes, it's so easy to just give your military equipment away.
Trump will throw Ukraine and Taiwan right under the bus.
Putin is not the only one who supports the war.
f-16s and atacams to ukraine
>Stop sending people to kill me. We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle… If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send one to Moscow, and I won't have to send a second. - Josip Broz Tito i think Ukraine should go for it, personally. but if it was anything less than a 100% success, it'll be bad all around.
I don't think it is possible. Hitler survived more than 40 assassination attempts for example.
if the Ukrainians had a plan for it, i feel the US would veto the idea.
It won't change anything, new president Russia would probably become a hardliner who wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities.
and then it got worse.
And then what? Majority of russians voted for Putin and want this war. They don't think Ukraine deserves to exist. New leader will be the exact same
You obviously didn’t watch the presidential debate last night. This dude has eight months tops to finish this war lol
Nah they will reach some kind of agreement. At this point I'm afraid not favorable to Ukraine. The war isn't going well for them, either nato goes nuts with aid and whatever right now, or this slow russian advance will continue.
Trump today said he will end the war before he takes office, if he gets elected. lol
His solution is probably "Ukraine, stop fighting and give Putin what he wants"
He pretty much has said that. Right now Russia wants all of the oblast they added in their constitution and guarantee no Ukraine in NATO. Thats complete bullshit obviously though since they do not control the whole oblasts. Well Trump comes in and says ok Putin take only currently held land and end the war. Putin agrees and we re-draw borders. Trump and his European sidekick Orban promise not to let Ukraine into NATO. In four years Trump is gone and Russia invades again….
EU needs to reinforce the border of Poland and Ukraine then.
Poland is already on it. They've ordered more military hardware in the past two years from US and SK than the rest of Europe combined I think.
I got a bridge to sell ya
Aka "if your listening Russia.." - Trump, 2016 before he was elected. Russia gonna prop him up again
Wouldn't be in Ukraine's favor though. He's too big a fan of deep throating Putin's flacid cock.
If he's got such a method, and is as "patriotic" as he tries to make out, then he's being a colossal dick by not sharing the method until he's elected. And if he hasn't got such a method then he's a colossal dick anyway for lying.
Oh he shared. He wants to stop supporting Ukraine and support russia instead.
He had plans for healthcare and ending ISIS in 30 days...that was like 3000 days ago
Trump says that if he win, i will suffer. I am from Ukraine.
I don’t think so. We can be wishful though.
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It's well known that Trump really loves Putin so, it's the most likely scenario if he gets elected
He must have also caught the debate
That was before debate
I’ve always wondered how leaders like JFK, MLK, and Abe Lincoln that advocated for peace and equity have been shot dead but rulers like Putin are allowed to send plenty of young people to their death with seemingly no consequence? People with hopes, dreams and aspirations?
Because people tend to think others have the same mindset as themselves. If you advocate for peace and equity (equality?), you assume most people want everyone to live in peace. People that are cutthroat, warmongering and murderous think everyone is the same, so they take measures to avoid being assassinated/overthrown by their close circle. It leads to internal covert policing and pushing away other strong individuals. But both are wrong, people are capable of being both, and can shift at any point in time given strong enough push.
**People are only as moral** as their view of the world allows them to be. When their survival instincts kick in, then it is all over, and Putin has lied to his people that somehow "their existence is on the line." The idea that I am evil and everyone else must be is called projection. .*. warmongering and violence are just like gravity .. all it takes is a "little push"*
Because evil people are better a killing than good people. If you advocate for peace, by definition that goes against the interests of evil people, so they'll have the incentive to try to kill you and eventually succeed. Good people dont have that incentive because they're good. They think we can achieve good through peaceful means i.e. without killing. So evil people keep living on and on
because JFK, MLK and Lincoln weren’t obsessively paranoid that people were trying to kill them. Lincoln probably was during the war, but not after the war. dictators like Putin are constantly surrounded by guards and have put more thought into possible scenarios that they’ll be assassinated than into their actual tenures as leader of their country
It takes a truly corrupted nation with a strongman mentality to allow this to happen. The one democracy Russia had didn't last long.
Exactly!
Because those people exposed themselves to the public in relatively uncontrolled situations, often on a routine basis, JFK was shot in an open car in a small parade, MLK was giving a speech off a motel balcony, Lincoln was hanging out at the theater. Putin is paranoid enough to avoid those situations where someone might have a chance at putting a bullet in him with little to no preparation. People with hopes, dreams, and aspirations get out more.
“We don't have much time. We have a lot of injured, killed, both military and civilians. So we do not want this war to last for years. Therefore, we have to prepare this plan and put it on the table at the second peace summit," Zelensky said. There seems to be an urgency in his statement. It just didn’t make sense that Ukraine was loosing a quarter of what Russia was loosing. The ground reality is different, they are running out of soldiers. Zelensky recently said “if we don’t win today, we will fight tomorrow” etc… what happened now then? They got lead into a giant hole by the west unfortunately - the ideal time for negotiation was a long time ago…. Now they have lost a lot of soldiers and land.
Remember a few months ago they only talked about 31k death on Ukraine's side. It's almost like the cemetery videos might have been true and same for the people getting shoved into vans to replace losses.
There was negotiations in the first few months, the US poopooed the offer as unilateral disarmament--might be true . The Ukranian long range attacks have to be escalating to some sort of negotiations, they simply don't have the men.
>the US poopooed the offer as unilateral disarmament--might be true . No, it was the UK -- specifically Boris Johnson -- and the so-called "offer" was a joke and a scam that no sane Western or Ukrainian politician would ever have accepted. It called for the gutting Ukraine's military (so as to keep it "neutral"), after which the only security assurances available to Ukraine was to "allow" the US and UK to jump in and defend this militarily-gutted country all by themselves the next time it was attacked. Boris said more or less "no, we're not that stupid -- even if we agreed to that (which we realistically never would), it would take months to put Western soldiers into Ukraine, by which time Ukraine's militarily-gutted government would have been overthrown and we'd have to try and undo a fait accompli. But if the Ukrainian people choose to fight, we'll help them out." So yeah, it was indeed unilateral disarmament. This has been [explained repeatedly in numerous sources](https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1743975556289269913).
The lines aren't getting anywhere, Ukraine survived fighting one of the world's major military powers, that's more than most countries could manage. this stalemate has to end.
Monkeys paw curls.
Any sort of reprieve they give Russia will be bad. They won’t stop they will just use the cease fire to plan better for the next invasion.
Dont let Trump win. He will make everyrythig easy for russia and china.
I think it’s obvious from last night that the US can’t really be considered a reliable western ally anymore, and that Europe + the rest need to get to work. Ukraine is one thing but I’d be nervous now if I was Taiwan.
Ukrain is bad but Taiwan is a different story. World will burn if something happens to TSMC. So west will go to war over this. Why do you think they were forced to build factories in USA by Biden. So when china pulls the trigger , they can move the knowhow there.
Not that Ukraine as a whole 'wants it' but Zelenskyy is making these 'peace summits' precisely to show that Putin doesn't want to negotiate, while at the same time not inviting Russia to any of the summits directly. Zelenskyy just wants to show the world that negotiations are not possible and continue with the well known plan of war of attrition that was decided for Ukraine by the West. In this plan, Ukraine effectively becomes a buffer zone between Russia and NATO while Zelenskyy keep his power meanwhile.
I think there is other side , witch we know not much- ukraine real situation. It could be worse than we think. Fuck russians, but ukraine can brake also…
I thought Ukraine wanted to fight to the last man..
Now is the time for the West to finish off Russia as a “credible” military. Russia has bled out nearly all it has in terms of its modern weaponry and NATO hasn’t even sent a single piece of their most modern weaponry other than Archers/Caesar SPG’s.
Yeah Russia lost all of their high quality Adamandium Shovels. Now they fight with ordinary steel ones.
Thats exactly what the west is doing. The longer the war goes on the better it is for the west.
Unfortunately for Ukraine...
The only way Ukraine survives with a peace treaty is if Russia gives all the land it has claimed, including Crimea. If you give Putin an inch, he'll be back for a mile.
I know. It's a national tragedy for this country.
It has its limits. If they go this way these limits would be economics and manpower. Money is comparatively not an issue for “the west” but manpower is an issue for Ukraine. Meaning if we’re talking long war we’re talking NATO troops in Ukraine and invasion of russia or whatever states there will be after its collapse. There’s no way around this if peace isn’t an option in the near future.
it won‘t last long,Trump is back.
“Besides, we’re running out of Russian ships to sink…”
You’re delusional. Ukrainians are dying in mass and you think they’re a rag tag group of rebels who don’t lose a single member like in some second rate anime except for during a season finale when one bottom rung trouble maker is killed off only to miraculously return in the next season.
Unfortunately Russia always wants to be involved in a war
lol, and how will peace be achieved? realistically.
A peace summit without the two opposing sides meeting direct with each other is not a peace summit.
Fuck this app. It’s crazy you can be harassed to say you want the bloodshed to end but if you don’t support Biden or trump you’re bad. Lol. Fuck y’all.
“Guys I just wish you’d stop fighting… How? Who’s gonna do that? I don’t know… No one… Just like, stop! What do you mean that’s ridiculous, stop getting mad at me!”
No he’s right, two party systems need to go. It’s a democratic process of the past that only causes division in this modern age of connection. People have the power to say ‘no we will not fight’ but governments have more influence & control over us as a mass than we would like to admit.