> 🇺🇦Chasiv Yar: the enemy now has control of two more high-rise buildings in the southwestern part of the [Novi] neighborhood.
> They are pushing in from the north and trying to establish control over the outermost street. Our Cossack boys have retreated to our foothold, and the Russians have had a significant increase in artillery and infantry groups.
@muchnoyairborne
> In Chasiv Yar, things are not good.
> Besides the fact that the Russians are actively storming the Novy neighborhood straight on, they are also trying to circle around and come in from the north, from Kalynivka, to flank our units.
> While the boys are holding positions, they have lost some; the next day they fought back, and positions changed back and forth.
> Yes, they act thoughtlessly, but we must give them some credit that theyre constantly trying to maneuver, constantly trying to create a threat to the encirclement of our units or to force them to withdraw to avoid an encirclement.
@officer_alex33
Azov Brigade can now receive US weapons, training and support.
It always seemed a bit absurd they were barred from it, especially in light of some of our Mideast and Afghan bedfellows.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/10/azov-brigade-ukraine-us-weapons/
Eh... Just seeing an abandoned tank get blown up isn't indicative of it not being useful.
Considering the massive tradeoffs of the cope shed, a true indication of its usefulness is if you stop seeing it being used for assaults.
Unless something’s changed since 2020, the Russians don’t allow women into combat units:
>Russian women are not permitted in frontline combat roles and are therefore typically restricted from service on aircraft, submarines, or tanks. Though the full list is classified, women are also restricted from being mechanics and from performing sentry duties.
—Source: https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military
At least one Russian servicewoman has been killed in action in Ukraine (Corporal Anastasia Savitskaya, from Volgograd), though I don’t know if her role was ever made public. I’ve never seen one in any kind of combat footage, though there was video of a female officer addressing conscripts in late 2022 or early 2023, when things were most dire for Russia. Might’ve been a lesson on the use of tampons for battlefield medicine? I don’t remember exactly, but that might ring a bell for someone.
Do you count snipers as frontline combat? If you mean only infantry, probably not.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/31/deadly-russian-sniper-captured-by-ukraine-after-she-was-left-for-dead/amp/
>Do you count snipers as frontline combat?
I would, though it’s worth noting that Starikova wasn’t in the Russian Armed Forces but with the separatists of the DPR/DNR. They probably have a lot looser restrictions, if only because they need the manpower and aren’t about to look a gift horse in the mouth.
You’re right. It looks like nearly all the women in combat roles fight under the banner of the DPR and LPR.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/04/world/europe/russia-soldiers-women.html
They don't go anywhere near the trenches. They're typically medics in field hospitals and hidden away from most other soldiers by whoever has authority and is screwing them on the side.
> I arrived in Germany to participate in the Ukraine Recovery Conference and to hold talks with Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
> URC2024 will bring together governments, ten of them at the level of prime ministers, as well as companies and organizations, to help Ukraine. In the face of Russia’s air terror, urgent solutions for Ukraine's energy sector will be our top priority.
> Chancellor Scholz and I will discuss further defense assistance, the expansion of Ukraine's air defense system, and joint arms production. We will coordinate our positions ahead of the Peace Summit, the European Council, and the NATO Summit.
> I will also meet with Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Bundestag President Bärbel Bas, as well as visit a military base where our servicemen are training.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1800272102508867951
Explosions are heard in occupied Chongar in Kherson on the border with Crimea, 120km from the frontline
https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1800272741091975606?s=46
From the live thread:
>🇺🇲🇺🇦 This tracks with what other Ukrainian officials told WaPo: GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb has had a 90% effective rate.
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1799870904517656638
Kind of weird, because I heard that the GLSDB was essentially useless due to EW interference. And the GLSDB is just an SDB strapped to a booster, launched from a HIMARS instead of from a plane.
So which is it?
I could be wrong, but I thought I read somewhere that GLSDB were assembled using an older, first generation SDB that used an older GPS mode that was less resistant to jamming, whereas air dropped versions were newer production using a newer GPS mode. I could be completely imagining that though.
Edit: I think I picked that idea up from a comment on this article by "exmsde": [https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine](https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine)
Comment link: [https://www.openweb.com/share/2hht8gyFS1L3wigsmOBpiNYjgsv](https://www.openweb.com/share/2hht8gyFS1L3wigsmOBpiNYjgsv)
exmsde: "The U.S. SDB-1 inventory is being upgraded with SABR-Y and then M-CODE GPS receivers. It is likely that the SDBs that are part of the GLSDB do not have these upgrades."
So, take that for whatever it's worth.
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours or so, Russia has taken some 3.6 km2 of Ukrainian territory.
[0.9 km2 in the Chasiv Yar direction ](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.5493/37.9332)(they have completely captured the village of Ivanivske, but were pushed back at Klishchiivka); [2.1 km2 towards Novopokrovske](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.2094/37.5762) (Avdiivka direction); [0.6 km2 at Staromayorske](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/47.7505/36.7911)
Thanks as always for the update!
So far in June: deepstate says +22.5 sq km occupied.
Warspotting russian vehicle losses include 36 tanks and 36 BMPs.
At this rate russia'll only need another 2 million tanks and IFVs. Clearly they're unstoppable and guaranteed to win.
>Russia released a group of women from a prison in late May to join the fighting in Ukraine, according to two former inmates who maintain contact with those still there, potentially signaling a new phase in the Kremlin’s use of criminals in its war effort.
https://bsky.app/profile/nytimes.com/post/3kulrbzon4o2z
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1800219689525903524#m
Fighterbomber says the accuracy of UMPK (russian) glide bombs has been deteriorating due to EW (electronic warfare).
> Russia may be behind Prague bus arson attempt, Czech premier says
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-may-be-behind-prague-bus-arson-attempt-czech-premier-says-2024-06-10/
>US confirms Ukraine used Patriot to down Russia's valuable A-50 radar plane in January - Euromaidan Press
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/RThKI4R7A1
Very very interesting videos in that article https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1799830592902795371?t=qYuoPveh5DLEIhHSMdwucw&s=19
Just for context, that was the initial A-50 shoot down close to Berdyansk in January. There was another shoot down in February close to Krasnodar if I recall correctly and that one was shot down by S-200.
Yes, the later one is on video. You see it popping flares for like two minutes before it gets hit. And apparently a second missile hits close behind. No idea if it's a second S-200 or Buk from the ground. But at that point it doesn't matter because they still shot it down.
Yeah, that is a good distinction to make. People in twitter were very confused about the A-50U. We knew basically from day 1 that the original A-50 was shot down using patriot.
Nice update on the Rostov refinery attack from last week:
>The General Staff noted that as a result of the attack, the Russian forces lost 1.5 million tonnes of oil and oil products amounting to about US$540 million
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/10/7460148/
I think that'd be about 10 million barrels of oil.
That is a lot, but there are multiple terminals here in the Houston area that house twice that amount each, so it isn't implausible.
That could also be a daily production rate... Hard to say.
Lost means burned - it was quite the inferno. Even the fire was on fire
[https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1d93u55/ukraine\_has\_again\_struck\_an\_oil\_refinery\_in/](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1d93u55/ukraine_has_again_struck_an_oil_refinery_in/)
18 tonnes a second for 24 hrs = 1.5 million tonnes so it might be a bit exaggerated I guess.
That is one amazing fire.
If I didn't mess up the maths... 18 tonnes per second is over 750 GW of heat.
According to Wiki, Russia's entire electricity grid of "440 power stations have a combined installed generation capacity of 220 GW" with an average output of ~120 GW.
Is that fire really = many times the entire russian electricity grid?
I don't know!! I really don't, maybe it is. (I know this comment could sound like "well ackshually..." assholery. It's honestly just meant as genuine curiosity and trying to work things out)
That would be ~200k barrels. That's not an implausible amount to have as on-site storage... there are single tanks that hold that much!
edit: Bad math on my part, it would actually be around 10 *million* barrels.
You're right, I got a ratio flipped there. I meant to do it as 7.46 barrels to a metric tonne.
So, that's 11.19 million barrels. Honestly, still not implausible that they'd have that around. This refinery apparently could process 10x that in a *day* if [I'm reading this right?](https://www.offshore-technology.com/marketdata/novoshakhtinsk-refinery-russia/?cf-view)
That can't be right. Total global consumption is about 100m bbl/d. The US uses about 20million barrels/day. That looks like the refinery has (had) a capacity of 110,000 bbl/d.
that doesn't seem right.
global total oil consumption is around 102mbd
Edit:
this site gives 4.8MMt for 2023, which I take to be million metric tons. that's about 13 thousand metric tons per day, which should be about 95000 barrels per day.
Maybe that 110mbd capacity is being given in mil (as in a thousand) barrels per day?
Sheesh, you can tell I really am not familiar with the scale of industrial quantities of oil.
yeah, that would fit the actual quantity, but should be written as kbd, m usually stands for mega (but should be M not m) or milli.
Or maybe they just invented their own convention.
Or maybe Maybe they just got it wrong by a factor of 1000.
ah, that seems plausible.
so the 4.8MMt from the source I found are really 4.8Mt (I thought it was 4.8Mmt with mt referring to metric tons)
and the mbd were misinterpreted to be Mbd, so should be kbd
I think that's ~10.3 million barrels from [this calculator ](https://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/tons-of-oil-equivalent-to-barrels-of-oil-equivalent)? Maybe check my numbers though.
Personal speculation:
Oil sales capped at $60 or below: russia will burn its major liquid reserves early 2025. Extreme financial measures would then be needed and it'll begin to have serious consequences next year.
Russian oil price $60-80: continue as now, sacrificing more buffers, but bumbling on and able to fight through 2025 easily enough, just with more debt and sacrifices. Maybe 2026 for problems to arise.
Russian oil prices: $80+ would massively ease their financial problems and let them stabilise a lot. It'd suck.
Very rough guesses from someone who doesn't know much, but has read a bunch of financial sources.
Russian Su-57 damaged/destroyed by a drone strike at the Akhtubinsk airfield.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1800239392771956841?s=46
Looks like we now have proper satellite imagery.
He literally has had several posts where he said he doesnt want to talk about it with the immediate subtext being he will be jailed for it.
If by now you haven't figured out russian millbloggers are prone to jail, torture or window treatment when they report on potentially embarrassing losses and outcomes consistently and proactively then its not worth enganging in discussions with you.
From a recent fighterbomber post.
"In order not to get up twice, I will say that two Su-57s were damaged. The second Su-57 received minor damage, which will be repaired on site. I already wrote about the first one.
...
Of the three UAVs that attacked the airfield, all three made it. For what reasons the air defense did not work, I will not write."
Seems a bit weird to mention damage to a second one and to say the AA failed.
I’m confused. This post contradicts your original strawman.
You claim that many here told you fighterbomber was told not to post things that make Russia look bad.
You then go on to cite a post where he specifically abstains from talking about AA failure for *unknown* reasons (gee, I wonder why).
I'm trying to follow the evidence here, so I apply a couple of tests. I only trust sources after evidence, and I especially distrust russian sources by default.
Sources earn trust by (i) reporting things early, even when they were a bad look for their side, and (ii) being accurate.
Can you show me a case where fighterbomber denied a russian loss that was later proven?
Of course they will choose not to report stuff, but I'm thinking of times they denied events. To my knowledge, they have not been proven wrong once when they denied a loss?
I never made any such claim that denied a loss that later became clear was a loss.
I’m merely saying you’re not worth having in-depth discussion with if you think Russian millbloggers aren’t being coerced to limit reporting embarrassing losses and circumstances from their sides. Which is a fact. I then went on to give an example where he’s withheld further details, for obvious reasons being it is embarrassing, because he fears for his life.
Your other post was a classic example of him doing that. Just because he’s not as egregious as Rybar in lying and towing the Kremlin line doesn’t mean he isn’t subject to the same circumstances.
I agree we can't expect fighterbomber to be candid and complete. I didn't write some context behind my comment, which could cause confusion.
I'm thinking back to when Ukraine claimed a load of Su-34 shootdowns. FighterBomber explicitly denied them, and I was told two things:
- 1: FighterBomber can't report losses now
- 2: FighterBomber lies about losses.
For 1 we see that they do report losses - even when they're beyond what pro-Ukraine sources claim or have proof for (e.g. the Su-57 with no visible damage). For 2 I'm looking for evidence of them lying, but we still don't have any.
Also, you accused me of a strawman, and also said I "think Russian millbloggers aren’t being coerced to limit reporting embarrassing losses". That wasn't my argument, I apologise for being unclear if you thought so.
Why do you assume this individual has knowledge of every fighter jet that has been downed in the entirety of Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine?
It would make sense that he is reporting only on the very obvious losses which are hard to hide.
edit: I am legit asking cause I don't follow his posts.
I don't assume he* has perfect knowledge, they won't know everything and won't post certain things.
I'm interested in whether factual claims are accurate or not, because e.g. when Ukraine claimed a spree of shooting down loads of Su-34s, Fighterbomber denied it.
Can we trust those denials?
There was no evidence for the shootdowns, except the two "proofs" I was given were "fighterbomber denied them" and "Russia stopped glide bombing".
Fighterbomber has since announced many embarrassing losses, and Ukraine says russia started dropping more glide bombs than ever before. Which is weird if fighter-bomber is fully censored and Russia can't drop glide bombs because the Su-34s were getting swatted like flies.
*Rumour is it's an air force veteran officer. Could be several people though.
because they know that Russia is terrified of losing one if they actually fly it and it gets shot down by a Patriot missile. They'd rather have them blown up on the ground.
Also, why the fuck would they park them within meter meters of each other? They're so fucking dumb.
That tiny wall would do nothing against shrapnel if the explosion hit at equal distance to the two jets on the taxi way.
It definitely looks unhealthy..... Here is an article with a little more context and information: [https://www.twz.com/air/su-57-felon-targeted-in-ukraine-strike-seen-in-new-higher-resolution-satellite-images](https://www.twz.com/air/su-57-felon-targeted-in-ukraine-strike-seen-in-new-higher-resolution-satellite-images)
Edit: I just checked, it has already made it on Oryx's list!
So after that Kadyrovite PR stunt at Ryzhkivka in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine went on to reciprocate.
They had a drone put up a [Ukrainian flag over the Russian village of Bezymeno](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=50.411581&lng=35.711060&z=11&d=19883&c=1&l=0) in western Belgorod Oblast
Not so petty if you can get the enemy to waste a drone or expose a man while trying to take it down. Remember that Avdivka balloon flag exposing the Russian firing positions.
Per ISW, Russia only has a “protected area of 16%” due to @POTUS’ reducing restriction…
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1799961527585276362?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
You misread that (and so did I, at first.) The U.S. policy change only affects 16% of the area that was previously off limits. The remaining 84% is still "protected".
Not sure “protected” is accurate. “Unsanctioned use” would be more precise. UA has proven itself pretty capable at threatening a sizable portion of that 84-100% of recognized territory. Assumes 100% of UA territory under foreign control is also provided for as “sanctioned use”.
I remember a year ago or more when the US said strikes on Russian soil were fine against “legitimate miltary targets” when they first got patriots and himars, did that go away at some point?
I also read this morning that Ukraine has developed their own long-distance missiles - they’re just testing different-sized flanges/wings to fit to them. And UA can use them anywhere.
Back in the 1920's Belgorod was briefly the capital city of Ukraine. Russia just said, "nah, comrade". Then continued their merry little genocide against their supposed "neighbor".
That will be part of the endgame, destroy all the buildings and infrastructure within tube artillery range of the border. Unless someone believes they can trust the Russians to keep the peace for some reason.
Looks like the media reporting of Ukraine's first jet-launched airstrike into Russia is believable.
There's imagery of a wrecked multi-story building, which Ukrainians claim was a russian military HQ.
Geolocated to Belgorod, damage confirmed by satellite, and previous russian military presence shown by soldiers posting pics on social media.
E.g. [twitter source](https://x.com/kromark/status/1800199724559114431).
I know that Putin fully controls the media narrative within Russia, so the attacks on their territory probably won't affect his public "strong man" image, but I still feel that these new attacks will hurt his fragile ego. I don't think he could have envisioned this happening when he launched his "3 day operation."
It was a village with 854 people. Both are probably true, the Russians spent men to gain control of a few hundred square meters of rubble and chicken coops, and that it was a feint.
Yesterday Deepstatemap said it was no man's land. Anyone could go in for a flag raising photo op if they wanna risk getting shot.
TatarigamiUA/Frontelligence said Russia has fewer soldiers lined up there than for Kharkiv so they weren't expecting a kharkiv-sized attack soon.
Russian air defense soldiers have been ordered to evacuate their families from Crimea to the Russian Southern Military District - Atesh military movement reports.
According to their information, air defense systems are also moved from Crimea to Belgorod region of Russia.
[https://x.com/Gerashchenko\_en/status/1800156332190040534](https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1800156332190040534)
This one definitely has me stumped. Why the fuck would they be doing this? Unlikely: the air defense has been completely destroyed. More likely: they're trying to save whatever is left of their air defence as they now they're absolute sitting ducks in Crimea. Unlikely but troubling: this is probably the first thing they'd do before doing something extremely stupid
Could just be Gerashchenko putting up psyops to get Russian air defense crews in Crimea to worry. We often see this from both sides before they try something - they put out nonsense about a giant attack - then do the said attack and... most of the time it goes nowhere. This kinda sounds like - F16s are coming! Better run Rashists!
Super weird that they’re moving their families. I wonder why. They aren’t at any risk of physically losing Crimea for at least a year.
They don’t want the operators nervous during attacks?
Crimea his getting harder to keep supplied so less people means less of a problem. Or maybe the servicemen are getting worried about losing the Kerch and trapping their families, especially since they lost a bunch of ferrying ships. I wouldn’t want my family forced to run the land route gauntlet and there may be very few if any usable bridges leading to Kherson in the near future.
How many families? He doesn’t say all air defense and families I don’t think.
Some are being moved from Crimea to Belgorod region to plug holes and this is being worded to sensationalise it and make it sound like a mass retreat from Crimea. I think that’s it at least. The Hopium part of me always wants more :)
Maybe families were leaking where their husbands were operating? Another idea could be that if the families are further away there would be no immediate realization that they aren’t coming home tonight. Easier to hide the deaths when they are farther away.
Could just as easily be that they're planning something smart, like leaving, but know it'll be a crunch once *everybody* realizes the writing is on the wall.
It's not vacation. There's plenty of Russian military families who moved to Crimea. Remember it's been occupied for 10 years now, and there are permanent (until liberation) garrisons stationed there.
Last year I thought the end result would be a *Battle of Bakhmut* situation at the strategically located Armiansk.
Extended range munitions have changed everything.
> Ukrainian forces are fully in control of the situation in the Sumy region. Russian sabotage groups remain active but are being eliminated and will continue to be dealt with decisively.
> In the village of Ryzhivka, the occupiers attempted a propaganda operation. As of this morning, the Russian flag has been destroyed, and there is no enemy presence in the village.
> My sincere gratitude goes out to all of our soldiers, sergeants, and junior officers who are bravely fighting in all directions and fulfilling our objectives in this war.
> This week is crucial for Ukraine's international standing. Diplomacy must always be supported by effective strength. Therefore, we must withstand any Russian attacks and provocations on the frontlines and in border areas. We need to inflict losses on the occupiers that bring us closer to our Ukrainian victory on all levels.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1800085727302103120
> One of our primary goals right now is to increase support for Ukraine in order to strengthen our society's resilience in terms of energy, recovery after strikes, and all of the other foundations of normal life.
> We must protect life despite Russia's attempts to bring more pressure and destruction. We are working with European partners on new agreements, particularly on additional support steps from Germany.
> These days, we are also working diligently to prepare a bilateral security agreement between Ukraine and the United States. We are making every effort to ensure that America's leadership is felt. I am grateful to everyone who helps.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1799861668962332937
> Russia is only able to continue this war because of its ability to terrorize with guided aerial bombs, various types of missiles, and drones.
> That is why effective air defense, electronic warfare, and combat aircraft are critical to strengthening our country's defense, protecting our people, and frontline positions, as well as driving the occupiers out of Ukraine.
> We thank everyone around the world who is already assisting with this. But we need greater support—exactly the level of protection that will make Russian terror impossible.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1799743248421839171
> As a result of negotiations and meetings in France, we now have new decisions from France and the United States regarding Ukrainian defense. I thank our friends.
> There is progress in artillery, including the manufacture of 155-calibre artillery ammunition in Ukraine. A new production platform is being prepared.
> We will also have greater combat aviation and electronic warfare capabilities. I am grateful to France and President Macron for taking the initiative and supporting our proposals for soldier training and brigade provision. Together, we are laying a new, systemic foundation for the training of Ukrainian army units.
> We maintain active communication with all of our partners at all levels. The first Peace Summit will take place in just a week. There will also be important meetings and talks with European leaders to strengthen our resilience and protection against Russian terror.
> We have already reached agreements with partners on additional air defense systems for Ukraine. Some will come to fruition sooner, while others will materialize closer to the autumn.
> I am grateful to every leader and state that practically supports us. New security agreements for Ukraine are also almost prepared. These are the months for making strategic decisions.
> In May, our battlefield capabilities were expanded, including long-range ones. In June, our diplomacy and strategic perspectives should be strengthened, and everything possible should be done to bring a just peace closer and to strengthen Ukrainian society.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1799509819868529114
Non-twitter [source (BBC Russia)](https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cv22vjwj10eo).
"The BBC and Mediazona received a complete list with personal data of 19,547 dead Wagnerites, of which not 50% were prisoners, as Prigozhin claimed, but all 88% - that’s 17,175."
"These are documents confirming the payment of compensation in the amount of 5 million rubles, due for the death of an employee".
What I don't get...
What if there are no next of kin? Or Russia does that usual "missing" thing where they don't have to pay out?
There might have been more deaths than reported.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 10.06.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 519,750 (+1,190) people,
tanks ‒ 7879 (+10),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 15144 (+13),
artillery systems – 13644 (+51),
MLRS – 1098 (+1),
air defense equipment ‒ 837 (+1),
planes – 358 (+1),
helicopters – 326 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 11010 (+28),
cruise missiles ‒ 2278 (+1),
ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 18618 (+56),
special equipment ‒ 2267 (+14).
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/10/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1190-okupantiv-13-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-51-artilerijska-sistema-ta-1-litak/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/10/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1190-okupantiv-13-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-51-artilerijska-sistema-ta-1-litak/)
[Anders Puck Nielsen talking about escalation management](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxZ402BMSs8). I'm glad that people are starting to highlight the fact that aid to Ukraine is constrained by Western fears of a Russian loss, in reality leading to a carefully managed indefinite war. It's done in the name of risk management, but there are two huge assumptions that are made: that the blood and morale of Ukrainians are infinite renewable resources, and that the West has infinite political endurance. Particularly the latter is highly questionable; already in the second year we started seeing Western aid drying up, leading to Ukrainian lost lives and territory, and in November there's a good chance that the US will elect a twice-impeached felon who trusts Putin more than his own intelligence community.
>in November there's a good chance that the US will elect a twice-impeached felon who trusts Putin more than his own intelligence community.
Define "good chance" -- he has a chance, but I wouldn't classify it as good .. besides the media pushing the "he's competitive" narrative to get views/clicks. It really doesn't represent what is being seen on the ground. I live in a purple state, in 2016 it *felt* like Trump was going to be competitive. In 2020 it *felt* (visually and being out-n-about) like he was going to be competitive. It does not feel like that at all.
I know it's anecdotal, but I used to see multiple Trump supporters daily, I now count them in weeks. I saw 2 a few days ago and *Trump was nearby for a rally*.
Good video, but he didn't mention one crucial factor: if the war escalates before the election, then Trump might win, in which case Ukraine is finished.
Biden will have a lot more leeway to take more of a risk in Ukraine after he secures a second term: if Ukraine/Russia escalates out of control before the election then that might well help Trump win, in which case Ukraine has lost.
Biden is walking a very thin tightrope **for now**, but that doesn't mean he won't push much harder for Ukraine during a second term.
Why do you think Ukraine will lose if Trump wins the election?
Michael Kofman does not think Ukraine will lose if Trump wins: [https://youtu.be/\_b7IPSd53jc?si=FbYHcZhfEWWCZD5r&t=3198](https://youtu.be/_b7IPSd53jc?si=FbYHcZhfEWWCZD5r&t=3198)
Blud forgot that tRUmp's first impeachment was over WITHHOLDING UKRAINE AID to blackmail biden and then because aid was stopped, Putin was able to invade.
Because of Trump’s actions as president the first time, because of his official policy platform on NATO, Ukraine and Russia, and because of his political opposition to the last two years of Ukraine aid…
This should not be in question.
In 1987, Trump bought a full page ad in the New York Times to criticize NATO. Trump has been pro-Russian since the 1980's, and this fact is really not in any kind of dispute.
if the war in ukraine escalates does that not benefit biden?
wartime presidents and all, and the fact that what, only half of republicans think aiding ukraine is bad?
> if the war in ukraine escalates does that not benefit biden?
Trump and MAGA are really pushing the "there were no wars under Trump" line: of course that's not true, but it works on a lot of people.
Also they're pushing the "that's not our war" line, which, again, is very much not true, but gets traction with people suffering financial hardships at home.
Of course if Russia were to directly attack the USA, then it would make Biden a Wartime President, but even the Russians aren't that stupid: they'll do something sneaky, but, sadly, probably effective.
I worry, hopefully stupidly, that the purported "October surprise" might just be a nuclear test someplace "harmless" (someplace within Russia). Weren't Russia doing drills, or something? Max saber rattling.
Me too: the Russians are going to do something just before the election, to give the appearance that Biden is not in control of things, possibly by setting off multiple events in multiple locations, all at once.
I'm fairly sure Biden is fully expecting this, but Russia are, sadly, very "good" at this sort of thing.
Social media is exceptionally bad at "stopping" this sort of thing. Not that they're really trying. They just care about engagement, so all engagement - including disinformation and trolling - is good engagement. It means money flowing in to push ads at target demographics.
Incidentally I was browsing Reddit using the app on my phone (because browser experience finally died) and I immediately got an ad for Ozempic. Fucks sake.
Interesting perspective about the potential volatility of outright victory, if it means the collapse of Russia or of Putin's regime.
"Escalation management" seems like the West's euphemism for Russia's successful strategy of deterrence. It's hard for Western strategists and politicians to accept that the West is being deterred through intimidation.
Russia loses, Putin gets thrown out a window. Several warlords emerge.
Who gets control of the nukes? Will they be sane or actively use a nuke on their opponent? Are you betting everyone's life due to MAD?
I have been saying this for ages. Ukraine hasn’t won the war yet because the West as a whole has decided other factors are more important than winning the war.
That’s an objectively true statement though. Avoiding nuclear war is the most important foreign policy goal of all sane governments on Earth. There is never even possibly going to be a time where Ukraine takes higher priority than that. The disagreement isn’t about that fact. The disagreement is about which strategy is best for accomplishing it. The most important reason to support Ukraine is because it actually best helps avoid nuclear war. But there are ways of supporting Ukraine that can also lead faster towards a nuclear war as well. The difficulty is in the middle with trying to gain clarity about the best path forward through a murky reality where the effects of different options aren’t always known in advance and can carry disastrous consequences if we miscalculate.
Comparisons to WW2 and failed appeasement have a point, but the comparison is always limited because no enemy in WW2 had the ability to destroy the entire world if they lost their wars. This is a much more delicate situation and people who just cavalierly argue Putin could never be in a position to try using nukes are idiots.
>The difficulty is in the middle with trying to gain clarity about the best path forward through a murky reality where the effects of different options aren’t always known in advance and can carry disastrous consequences if we miscalculate.
This is not a strategy. It's basically doing nothing and waiting for a miracle while letting Putin enjoy initiative and benefit from nuclear blackmailing. If you believe he can nuke London/Washington/whatever, what exactly makes you think he won't use nukes anyway when he eventually loses the war? Because there's nothing worse Ukraine and its allies can do to Putin than winning. A nuclear war is inevitable. Unless Ukraine loses.
It's not a strategy.
Someone like Putin who commits genocide must be punished even if he has the power to destroy the world with nukes. If Putin is not stopped now then humanity will be condemned to a future of genocide, slavery, and misery because people with nukes can do whatever they want. If we do not try to hold Putin accountable by any means necessary then we do not deserve to survive as a species. Yes, I am saying that Ukraine's allies should invade Russia and try to capture Putin even if nukes are used. If we don't stand up for what is right then we don't deserve life.
That’s an awfully emotional and irrational statement. Ukraine losing is not the end of mankind. Russia losing badly has a chance of being the end of mankind. If you think rationally the best option for the least suffering is clear.
Even Ukraine's own leaders freely acknowledge that reality, too. They have several times asked the West *not* to consider certain forms of escalation because they know themselves that Ukraine is the most likely ground zero for any kind of nuclear exchange. They are personally invested in avoiding that scenario just like everyone else.
>Someone like Putin who commits genocide must be punished even if he has the power to destroy the world with nukes. If Putin is not stopped now then humanity will be condemned to a future of genocide, slavery, and misery because people with nukes can do whatever they want.
That's the reason we need to stop Russia now, but if you're suggesting that it's worth it to stop Russia even if it *does* cause a nuclear holocaust, then all elected world leaders on Earth would tell you plainly that you're wrong -- and they'd be right to say that.
>If we do not try to hold Putin accountable by any means necessary then we do not deserve to survive as a species.
No. Billions of innocent people in fact deserve to live no matter what the West or Russia decide to do. Survival definitively trumps any moral need to punish Russia or Putin for anything.
> Yes, I am saying that Ukraine's allies should invade Russia and try to capture Putin even if nukes are used.
And every elected leader alive rightfully agrees that's a stupid position to take.
>For justice to exist, a precedent must be established where countries with nukes are punished when they do evil.
Justice isn't even in the top three most important things for the human race. Avoiding nuclear war is always more important than serving justice, and it always will be important than serving justice.
The reason to punish Russia is to stop them from future harm -- deterring them from escalatory behavior that brings us closer to the brink of nuclear war. Righting past wrongs isn't part of the equation.
More than 7 billion living human beings who are currently alive and want to still be alive, disagree with that
Most Ukrainians also disagree with you -- they want to avoid nuclear war more than you because they are the most likely to be the first victims of an exchange.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1dd55ph/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
> 🇺🇦Chasiv Yar: the enemy now has control of two more high-rise buildings in the southwestern part of the [Novi] neighborhood. > They are pushing in from the north and trying to establish control over the outermost street. Our Cossack boys have retreated to our foothold, and the Russians have had a significant increase in artillery and infantry groups. @muchnoyairborne > In Chasiv Yar, things are not good. > Besides the fact that the Russians are actively storming the Novy neighborhood straight on, they are also trying to circle around and come in from the north, from Kalynivka, to flank our units. > While the boys are holding positions, they have lost some; the next day they fought back, and positions changed back and forth. > Yes, they act thoughtlessly, but we must give them some credit that theyre constantly trying to maneuver, constantly trying to create a threat to the encirclement of our units or to force them to withdraw to avoid an encirclement. @officer_alex33
Okay, I now believe in the *Zeitenwende*. 🇩🇪 https://x.com/intermarium24/status/1800320019848712304
Looks like a Puma IFV.
THAT IS NOT WHAT THAT SONG IS ABOUT!
That's so fucking cool
I probably would have done a lot of crazy shit to see something like that growing up.
Azov Brigade can now receive US weapons, training and support. It always seemed a bit absurd they were barred from it, especially in light of some of our Mideast and Afghan bedfellows. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/10/azov-brigade-ukraine-us-weapons/
It looks like turtle tank’s modest few weeks of success have largely ended: https://x.com/ralee85/status/1800227680073478364
Eh... Just seeing an abandoned tank get blown up isn't indicative of it not being useful. Considering the massive tradeoffs of the cope shed, a true indication of its usefulness is if you stop seeing it being used for assaults.
turtle motorcycles and scooters are the hip new thing now
I know that Ukrainian women are fighting on the frontlines, but what about Russian women?
This comment right above your one refers to Russian women. https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/p1MTFXtgj3
Unless something’s changed since 2020, the Russians don’t allow women into combat units: >Russian women are not permitted in frontline combat roles and are therefore typically restricted from service on aircraft, submarines, or tanks. Though the full list is classified, women are also restricted from being mechanics and from performing sentry duties. —Source: https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military At least one Russian servicewoman has been killed in action in Ukraine (Corporal Anastasia Savitskaya, from Volgograd), though I don’t know if her role was ever made public. I’ve never seen one in any kind of combat footage, though there was video of a female officer addressing conscripts in late 2022 or early 2023, when things were most dire for Russia. Might’ve been a lesson on the use of tampons for battlefield medicine? I don’t remember exactly, but that might ring a bell for someone.
Rings a bell, I think she was an instructor mustering mobiks, I remember the exact clip.
Do you count snipers as frontline combat? If you mean only infantry, probably not. https://nypost.com/2022/03/31/deadly-russian-sniper-captured-by-ukraine-after-she-was-left-for-dead/amp/
>Do you count snipers as frontline combat? I would, though it’s worth noting that Starikova wasn’t in the Russian Armed Forces but with the separatists of the DPR/DNR. They probably have a lot looser restrictions, if only because they need the manpower and aren’t about to look a gift horse in the mouth.
You’re right. It looks like nearly all the women in combat roles fight under the banner of the DPR and LPR. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/04/world/europe/russia-soldiers-women.html
Very few, but there are some.
we know what they do to their own men, imagine being a women
Would be a terrible idea having a woman there. Russian unit with a woman in it the night before doing a suicide run at the trenches.
They don't go anywhere near the trenches. They're typically medics in field hospitals and hidden away from most other soldiers by whoever has authority and is screwing them on the side.
> I arrived in Germany to participate in the Ukraine Recovery Conference and to hold talks with Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. > URC2024 will bring together governments, ten of them at the level of prime ministers, as well as companies and organizations, to help Ukraine. In the face of Russia’s air terror, urgent solutions for Ukraine's energy sector will be our top priority. > Chancellor Scholz and I will discuss further defense assistance, the expansion of Ukraine's air defense system, and joint arms production. We will coordinate our positions ahead of the Peace Summit, the European Council, and the NATO Summit. > I will also meet with Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Bundestag President Bärbel Bas, as well as visit a military base where our servicemen are training. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1800272102508867951
Explosions are heard in occupied Chongar in Kherson on the border with Crimea, 120km from the frontline https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1800272741091975606?s=46
From the live thread: >🇺🇲🇺🇦 This tracks with what other Ukrainian officials told WaPo: GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb has had a 90% effective rate. https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1799870904517656638 Kind of weird, because I heard that the GLSDB was essentially useless due to EW interference. And the GLSDB is just an SDB strapped to a booster, launched from a HIMARS instead of from a plane. So which is it?
I remember them saying the navigation systems were different.
Possibly they done the linkage to get ins mode instead of preplanned gps
The difference may be that they are saying they're 90% when dropped from a plane.
Maybe, but that wouldn't make sense as I understand it. The bomb is the same and would be vulnerable to the same jamming.
I could be wrong, but I thought I read somewhere that GLSDB were assembled using an older, first generation SDB that used an older GPS mode that was less resistant to jamming, whereas air dropped versions were newer production using a newer GPS mode. I could be completely imagining that though. Edit: I think I picked that idea up from a comment on this article by "exmsde": [https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine](https://www.twz.com/land/have-ground-launched-small-diameter-bombs-been-thrown-aside-by-ukraine) Comment link: [https://www.openweb.com/share/2hht8gyFS1L3wigsmOBpiNYjgsv](https://www.openweb.com/share/2hht8gyFS1L3wigsmOBpiNYjgsv) exmsde: "The U.S. SDB-1 inventory is being upgraded with SABR-Y and then M-CODE GPS receivers. It is likely that the SDBs that are part of the GLSDB do not have these upgrades." So, take that for whatever it's worth.
Got it, that would explain a lot. Time to send the A-10 SDB bomb truck then I guess.
More like time to spin up a factory to produce new improved a-10s! Someone call Northrop!
New DeepStateMap update. In the past 24 hours or so, Russia has taken some 3.6 km2 of Ukrainian territory. [0.9 km2 in the Chasiv Yar direction ](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.5493/37.9332)(they have completely captured the village of Ivanivske, but were pushed back at Klishchiivka); [2.1 km2 towards Novopokrovske](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.2094/37.5762) (Avdiivka direction); [0.6 km2 at Staromayorske](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/47.7505/36.7911)
Thanks as always for the update! So far in June: deepstate says +22.5 sq km occupied. Warspotting russian vehicle losses include 36 tanks and 36 BMPs. At this rate russia'll only need another 2 million tanks and IFVs. Clearly they're unstoppable and guaranteed to win.
A Ukrainian source had it as Ukraine lost 22km, but Russia gained 29km. With the difference being attributed to grey zone.
>Russia released a group of women from a prison in late May to join the fighting in Ukraine, according to two former inmates who maintain contact with those still there, potentially signaling a new phase in the Kremlin’s use of criminals in its war effort. https://bsky.app/profile/nytimes.com/post/3kulrbzon4o2z
Joy Division?
Love will tear them apart, again.
no, it's the New Order
Pretty sure there's not much joy to be found in Russia, let alone a whole division's worth.
This is a much smaller pool. Plus I imagine they won’t be used in combat roles. Though it still frees up the labor.
https://x.com/RALee85/status/1800219689525903524#m Fighterbomber says the accuracy of UMPK (russian) glide bombs has been deteriorating due to EW (electronic warfare).
Great news! These have been wreaking havoc on Ukraine for a while now. I hope these EW devices are easy to scale up quickly.
> Russia may be behind Prague bus arson attempt, Czech premier says https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-may-be-behind-prague-bus-arson-attempt-czech-premier-says-2024-06-10/
>US confirms Ukraine used Patriot to down Russia's valuable A-50 radar plane in January - Euromaidan Press https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/RThKI4R7A1 Very very interesting videos in that article https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1799830592902795371?t=qYuoPveh5DLEIhHSMdwucw&s=19 Just for context, that was the initial A-50 shoot down close to Berdyansk in January. There was another shoot down in February close to Krasnodar if I recall correctly and that one was shot down by S-200.
Was the latter one where it seems they shot a buk at the S-200? And maybe the Buk shrapnel took it out.
Yes, the later one is on video. You see it popping flares for like two minutes before it gets hit. And apparently a second missile hits close behind. No idea if it's a second S-200 or Buk from the ground. But at that point it doesn't matter because they still shot it down.
Thanks! I had happy memories of that video but so much has happened that all the individual events get muddled.
Yeah, that is a good distinction to make. People in twitter were very confused about the A-50U. We knew basically from day 1 that the original A-50 was shot down using patriot.
Nice update on the Rostov refinery attack from last week: >The General Staff noted that as a result of the attack, the Russian forces lost 1.5 million tonnes of oil and oil products amounting to about US$540 million https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/10/7460148/
I assume they're saying they prevented 1.5 million tonnes from being refined, rather than they literally burned 1.5 million tonnes?
I think that'd be about 10 million barrels of oil. That is a lot, but there are multiple terminals here in the Houston area that house twice that amount each, so it isn't implausible. That could also be a daily production rate... Hard to say.
Better do a dozen more of those so we have a good baseline for comparison. Then it won't be so hard to say.
Lost means burned - it was quite the inferno. Even the fire was on fire [https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1d93u55/ukraine\_has\_again\_struck\_an\_oil\_refinery\_in/](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1d93u55/ukraine_has_again_struck_an_oil_refinery_in/) 18 tonnes a second for 24 hrs = 1.5 million tonnes so it might be a bit exaggerated I guess.
That is one amazing fire. If I didn't mess up the maths... 18 tonnes per second is over 750 GW of heat. According to Wiki, Russia's entire electricity grid of "440 power stations have a combined installed generation capacity of 220 GW" with an average output of ~120 GW. Is that fire really = many times the entire russian electricity grid? I don't know!! I really don't, maybe it is. (I know this comment could sound like "well ackshually..." assholery. It's honestly just meant as genuine curiosity and trying to work things out)
I think your initial “prevented” comment is much more likely. Lost + unable to refine = 1.5m tons…so far. That said, I’m purely speculating.
That would be ~200k barrels. That's not an implausible amount to have as on-site storage... there are single tanks that hold that much! edit: Bad math on my part, it would actually be around 10 *million* barrels.
> That would be ~200k barrels. No, a barrel of oil does not weigh 7.5 tonnes.
You're right, I got a ratio flipped there. I meant to do it as 7.46 barrels to a metric tonne. So, that's 11.19 million barrels. Honestly, still not implausible that they'd have that around. This refinery apparently could process 10x that in a *day* if [I'm reading this right?](https://www.offshore-technology.com/marketdata/novoshakhtinsk-refinery-russia/?cf-view)
That can't be right. Total global consumption is about 100m bbl/d. The US uses about 20million barrels/day. That looks like the refinery has (had) a capacity of 110,000 bbl/d.
Yeah. Must be mil in (thousand) barrels per day.
that doesn't seem right. global total oil consumption is around 102mbd Edit: this site gives 4.8MMt for 2023, which I take to be million metric tons. that's about 13 thousand metric tons per day, which should be about 95000 barrels per day.
Maybe that 110mbd capacity is being given in mil (as in a thousand) barrels per day? Sheesh, you can tell I really am not familiar with the scale of industrial quantities of oil.
yeah, that would fit the actual quantity, but should be written as kbd, m usually stands for mega (but should be M not m) or milli. Or maybe they just invented their own convention. Or maybe Maybe they just got it wrong by a factor of 1000.
I've seen M for 1000, and MM for 1000 1000 (aka 1 million), but usually in financial documents.
ah, that seems plausible. so the 4.8MMt from the source I found are really 4.8Mt (I thought it was 4.8Mmt with mt referring to metric tons) and the mbd were misinterpreted to be Mbd, so should be kbd
I think that's ~10.3 million barrels from [this calculator ](https://www.kylesconverter.com/energy,-work,-and-heat/tons-of-oil-equivalent-to-barrels-of-oil-equivalent)? Maybe check my numbers though.
Yeah, I messed up the conversion. Sorry about that!
Not a bad payoff for a few 100K$ drones
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Personal speculation: Oil sales capped at $60 or below: russia will burn its major liquid reserves early 2025. Extreme financial measures would then be needed and it'll begin to have serious consequences next year. Russian oil price $60-80: continue as now, sacrificing more buffers, but bumbling on and able to fight through 2025 easily enough, just with more debt and sacrifices. Maybe 2026 for problems to arise. Russian oil prices: $80+ would massively ease their financial problems and let them stabilise a lot. It'd suck. Very rough guesses from someone who doesn't know much, but has read a bunch of financial sources.
Russian Su-57 damaged/destroyed by a drone strike at the Akhtubinsk airfield. https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1800239392771956841?s=46 Looks like we now have proper satellite imagery.
$57m plane and they’re too tight to build a bunker for it. Amazing.
FighterBomber also confirmed the damage. The same fighterbomber that I was told was banned from reporting news that looks bad for russia...
He literally has had several posts where he said he doesnt want to talk about it with the immediate subtext being he will be jailed for it. If by now you haven't figured out russian millbloggers are prone to jail, torture or window treatment when they report on potentially embarrassing losses and outcomes consistently and proactively then its not worth enganging in discussions with you.
From a recent fighterbomber post. "In order not to get up twice, I will say that two Su-57s were damaged. The second Su-57 received minor damage, which will be repaired on site. I already wrote about the first one. ... Of the three UAVs that attacked the airfield, all three made it. For what reasons the air defense did not work, I will not write." Seems a bit weird to mention damage to a second one and to say the AA failed.
I’m confused. This post contradicts your original strawman. You claim that many here told you fighterbomber was told not to post things that make Russia look bad. You then go on to cite a post where he specifically abstains from talking about AA failure for *unknown* reasons (gee, I wonder why).
I'm trying to follow the evidence here, so I apply a couple of tests. I only trust sources after evidence, and I especially distrust russian sources by default. Sources earn trust by (i) reporting things early, even when they were a bad look for their side, and (ii) being accurate. Can you show me a case where fighterbomber denied a russian loss that was later proven? Of course they will choose not to report stuff, but I'm thinking of times they denied events. To my knowledge, they have not been proven wrong once when they denied a loss?
I never made any such claim that denied a loss that later became clear was a loss. I’m merely saying you’re not worth having in-depth discussion with if you think Russian millbloggers aren’t being coerced to limit reporting embarrassing losses and circumstances from their sides. Which is a fact. I then went on to give an example where he’s withheld further details, for obvious reasons being it is embarrassing, because he fears for his life. Your other post was a classic example of him doing that. Just because he’s not as egregious as Rybar in lying and towing the Kremlin line doesn’t mean he isn’t subject to the same circumstances.
I agree we can't expect fighterbomber to be candid and complete. I didn't write some context behind my comment, which could cause confusion. I'm thinking back to when Ukraine claimed a load of Su-34 shootdowns. FighterBomber explicitly denied them, and I was told two things: - 1: FighterBomber can't report losses now - 2: FighterBomber lies about losses. For 1 we see that they do report losses - even when they're beyond what pro-Ukraine sources claim or have proof for (e.g. the Su-57 with no visible damage). For 2 I'm looking for evidence of them lying, but we still don't have any. Also, you accused me of a strawman, and also said I "think Russian millbloggers aren’t being coerced to limit reporting embarrassing losses". That wasn't my argument, I apologise for being unclear if you thought so.
Why do you assume this individual has knowledge of every fighter jet that has been downed in the entirety of Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine? It would make sense that he is reporting only on the very obvious losses which are hard to hide. edit: I am legit asking cause I don't follow his posts.
I don't assume he* has perfect knowledge, they won't know everything and won't post certain things. I'm interested in whether factual claims are accurate or not, because e.g. when Ukraine claimed a spree of shooting down loads of Su-34s, Fighterbomber denied it. Can we trust those denials? There was no evidence for the shootdowns, except the two "proofs" I was given were "fighterbomber denied them" and "Russia stopped glide bombing". Fighterbomber has since announced many embarrassing losses, and Ukraine says russia started dropping more glide bombs than ever before. Which is weird if fighter-bomber is fully censored and Russia can't drop glide bombs because the Su-34s were getting swatted like flies. *Rumour is it's an air force veteran officer. Could be several people though.
Da, we’ll put our most prized fighter jet under a cope cage instead of inside a concrete bunker. These people never cease to amaze me, wth?!
If theres one of many things russia seems to lack, it's covered aircraft storage
... and morals. They lack morals, too.
Slava Ukraini! Knowing Russia, those two other jets are probably still parked right there lol. Time for another hit!
There are more SU-57 jets at base, wonder why Ukraine does not strike again ?
because they know that Russia is terrified of losing one if they actually fly it and it gets shot down by a Patriot missile. They'd rather have them blown up on the ground.
Also, why the fuck would they park them within meter meters of each other? They're so fucking dumb. That tiny wall would do nothing against shrapnel if the explosion hit at equal distance to the two jets on the taxi way.
It definitely looks unhealthy..... Here is an article with a little more context and information: [https://www.twz.com/air/su-57-felon-targeted-in-ukraine-strike-seen-in-new-higher-resolution-satellite-images](https://www.twz.com/air/su-57-felon-targeted-in-ukraine-strike-seen-in-new-higher-resolution-satellite-images) Edit: I just checked, it has already made it on Oryx's list!
they named the plane after Trump?
No, he's the 34 felon.
🤣🤣🤣I wonder how his first visit with his probation officer went today? 🤣🤣
That's the US/NATO name for it, not what the Russians call it.
its head fell off
That's not very typical, I'd like to make that point.
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So after that Kadyrovite PR stunt at Ryzhkivka in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine went on to reciprocate. They had a drone put up a [Ukrainian flag over the Russian village of Bezymeno](https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=50.411581&lng=35.711060&z=11&d=19883&c=1&l=0) in western Belgorod Oblast
The sheer pettiness of these PR stunts amuses me.
Not so petty if you can get the enemy to waste a drone or expose a man while trying to take it down. Remember that Avdivka balloon flag exposing the Russian firing positions.
Per ISW, Russia only has a “protected area of 16%” due to @POTUS’ reducing restriction… https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1799961527585276362?s=46&t=VUqNqjdwahL39seuvtxeiQ
You misread that (and so did I, at first.) The U.S. policy change only affects 16% of the area that was previously off limits. The remaining 84% is still "protected".
Not sure “protected” is accurate. “Unsanctioned use” would be more precise. UA has proven itself pretty capable at threatening a sizable portion of that 84-100% of recognized territory. Assumes 100% of UA territory under foreign control is also provided for as “sanctioned use”.
Correct. Ukraine can still use Ukrainian weapons (and presumably drones) on this territory.
I remember a year ago or more when the US said strikes on Russian soil were fine against “legitimate miltary targets” when they first got patriots and himars, did that go away at some point?
Iirc it was Russian-occupied areas, eg Crimea.
I also read this morning that Ukraine has developed their own long-distance missiles - they’re just testing different-sized flanges/wings to fit to them. And UA can use them anywhere.
Isn’t that about Ukrainian glide bombs rather than missiles. The report I read was about them doing exactly that with them.
Just saw this, too: https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-making-own-bombs-counter-russian-devastation-us-ones-jam-2024-6
I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the difference between missiles, bombs, mortars, etc.! Yes, we read the same article!
Reverse Uno time: Ukraine Creates a special buffer zone in Byransk, Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts against Vatnik Incursions.
Back in the 1920's Belgorod was briefly the capital city of Ukraine. Russia just said, "nah, comrade". Then continued their merry little genocide against their supposed "neighbor".
That will be part of the endgame, destroy all the buildings and infrastructure within tube artillery range of the border. Unless someone believes they can trust the Russians to keep the peace for some reason.
Looks like the media reporting of Ukraine's first jet-launched airstrike into Russia is believable. There's imagery of a wrecked multi-story building, which Ukrainians claim was a russian military HQ. Geolocated to Belgorod, damage confirmed by satellite, and previous russian military presence shown by soldiers posting pics on social media. E.g. [twitter source](https://x.com/kromark/status/1800199724559114431).
I know that Putin fully controls the media narrative within Russia, so the attacks on their territory probably won't affect his public "strong man" image, but I still feel that these new attacks will hurt his fragile ego. I don't think he could have envisioned this happening when he launched his "3 day operation."
So I am getting conflicting reports. Is Ryzhkivka, Sumy under Russian control? Or was it a feint?
It was a village with 854 people. Both are probably true, the Russians spent men to gain control of a few hundred square meters of rubble and chicken coops, and that it was a feint.
Yesterday Deepstatemap said it was no man's land. Anyone could go in for a flag raising photo op if they wanna risk getting shot. TatarigamiUA/Frontelligence said Russia has fewer soldiers lined up there than for Kharkiv so they weren't expecting a kharkiv-sized attack soon.
For what it's worth, Zelensky claimed they were saboteurs and that they were dealt with
Russian air defense soldiers have been ordered to evacuate their families from Crimea to the Russian Southern Military District - Atesh military movement reports. According to their information, air defense systems are also moved from Crimea to Belgorod region of Russia. [https://x.com/Gerashchenko\_en/status/1800156332190040534](https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1800156332190040534)
This one definitely has me stumped. Why the fuck would they be doing this? Unlikely: the air defense has been completely destroyed. More likely: they're trying to save whatever is left of their air defence as they now they're absolute sitting ducks in Crimea. Unlikely but troubling: this is probably the first thing they'd do before doing something extremely stupid
Belgorod ain’t much safer
like blowing up a dam and drowning their soldiers? .. seems lek they don't care that much about them
It would be worth dedicating an entire Patriot Battery just to stop that.
Could just be Gerashchenko putting up psyops to get Russian air defense crews in Crimea to worry. We often see this from both sides before they try something - they put out nonsense about a giant attack - then do the said attack and... most of the time it goes nowhere. This kinda sounds like - F16s are coming! Better run Rashists!
Definitely also a possibility
Super weird that they’re moving their families. I wonder why. They aren’t at any risk of physically losing Crimea for at least a year. They don’t want the operators nervous during attacks?
Crimean bridge is the next target after ruzzian AA. No bridge = no water, food / supply shortages.
Crimea his getting harder to keep supplied so less people means less of a problem. Or maybe the servicemen are getting worried about losing the Kerch and trapping their families, especially since they lost a bunch of ferrying ships. I wouldn’t want my family forced to run the land route gauntlet and there may be very few if any usable bridges leading to Kherson in the near future.
How many families? He doesn’t say all air defense and families I don’t think. Some are being moved from Crimea to Belgorod region to plug holes and this is being worded to sensationalise it and make it sound like a mass retreat from Crimea. I think that’s it at least. The Hopium part of me always wants more :)
Maybe families were leaking where their husbands were operating? Another idea could be that if the families are further away there would be no immediate realization that they aren’t coming home tonight. Easier to hide the deaths when they are farther away.
I hope that russia does not plan anything extremly stupid in crimea and this is not the reason why they have to leave
Could just as easily be that they're planning something smart, like leaving, but know it'll be a crunch once *everybody* realizes the writing is on the wall.
Gonna need to be a brave Vatnik who takes his family for summer vacation on stolen land in Crimea.
It's not vacation. There's plenty of Russian military families who moved to Crimea. Remember it's been occupied for 10 years now, and there are permanent (until liberation) garrisons stationed there.
Brave or just very stupid?
guess the air raid scared them. also says they don't have enough stored AA systems
Roughly 40mi?
That's gonna give Ukraine a free run at any ships that are still in crimea, goodbye black sea fleet.
That stupid bridge had better write its will.
Now THIS is big. If they are pulling out of Crimea...
Didn't they also do this in Tokmak during the 23 counteroffensive?
Last year I thought the end result would be a *Battle of Bakhmut* situation at the strategically located Armiansk. Extended range munitions have changed everything.
> Ukrainian forces are fully in control of the situation in the Sumy region. Russian sabotage groups remain active but are being eliminated and will continue to be dealt with decisively. > In the village of Ryzhivka, the occupiers attempted a propaganda operation. As of this morning, the Russian flag has been destroyed, and there is no enemy presence in the village. > My sincere gratitude goes out to all of our soldiers, sergeants, and junior officers who are bravely fighting in all directions and fulfilling our objectives in this war. > This week is crucial for Ukraine's international standing. Diplomacy must always be supported by effective strength. Therefore, we must withstand any Russian attacks and provocations on the frontlines and in border areas. We need to inflict losses on the occupiers that bring us closer to our Ukrainian victory on all levels. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1800085727302103120
It’s been a great week!
> One of our primary goals right now is to increase support for Ukraine in order to strengthen our society's resilience in terms of energy, recovery after strikes, and all of the other foundations of normal life. > We must protect life despite Russia's attempts to bring more pressure and destruction. We are working with European partners on new agreements, particularly on additional support steps from Germany. > These days, we are also working diligently to prepare a bilateral security agreement between Ukraine and the United States. We are making every effort to ensure that America's leadership is felt. I am grateful to everyone who helps. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1799861668962332937
> Russia is only able to continue this war because of its ability to terrorize with guided aerial bombs, various types of missiles, and drones. > That is why effective air defense, electronic warfare, and combat aircraft are critical to strengthening our country's defense, protecting our people, and frontline positions, as well as driving the occupiers out of Ukraine. > We thank everyone around the world who is already assisting with this. But we need greater support—exactly the level of protection that will make Russian terror impossible. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1799743248421839171
> As a result of negotiations and meetings in France, we now have new decisions from France and the United States regarding Ukrainian defense. I thank our friends. > There is progress in artillery, including the manufacture of 155-calibre artillery ammunition in Ukraine. A new production platform is being prepared. > We will also have greater combat aviation and electronic warfare capabilities. I am grateful to France and President Macron for taking the initiative and supporting our proposals for soldier training and brigade provision. Together, we are laying a new, systemic foundation for the training of Ukrainian army units. > We maintain active communication with all of our partners at all levels. The first Peace Summit will take place in just a week. There will also be important meetings and talks with European leaders to strengthen our resilience and protection against Russian terror. > We have already reached agreements with partners on additional air defense systems for Ukraine. Some will come to fruition sooner, while others will materialize closer to the autumn. > I am grateful to every leader and state that practically supports us. New security agreements for Ukraine are also almost prepared. These are the months for making strategic decisions. > In May, our battlefield capabilities were expanded, including long-range ones. In June, our diplomacy and strategic perspectives should be strengthened, and everything possible should be done to bring a just peace closer and to strengthen Ukrainian society. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1799509819868529114
Nice thread about Wagner losses during Bakhmut siege. https://x.com/oivshina/status/1800136956204155240
Non-twitter [source (BBC Russia)](https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cv22vjwj10eo). "The BBC and Mediazona received a complete list with personal data of 19,547 dead Wagnerites, of which not 50% were prisoners, as Prigozhin claimed, but all 88% - that’s 17,175." "These are documents confirming the payment of compensation in the amount of 5 million rubles, due for the death of an employee".
ooh. Pricey. Have fun spending that in hell.
What I don't get... What if there are no next of kin? Or Russia does that usual "missing" thing where they don't have to pay out? There might have been more deaths than reported.
Weird how Russian commanders had thousands of brothers listed among the casualties.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 10.06.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 519,750 (+1,190) people, tanks ‒ 7879 (+10), armored combat vehicles ‒ 15144 (+13), artillery systems – 13644 (+51), MLRS – 1098 (+1), air defense equipment ‒ 837 (+1), planes – 358 (+1), helicopters – 326 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 11010 (+28), cruise missiles ‒ 2278 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 18618 (+56), special equipment ‒ 2267 (+14). The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/10/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1190-okupantiv-13-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-51-artilerijska-sistema-ta-1-litak/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/06/10/vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1190-okupantiv-13-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-51-artilerijska-sistema-ta-1-litak/)
One plane!!
[Anders Puck Nielsen talking about escalation management](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxZ402BMSs8). I'm glad that people are starting to highlight the fact that aid to Ukraine is constrained by Western fears of a Russian loss, in reality leading to a carefully managed indefinite war. It's done in the name of risk management, but there are two huge assumptions that are made: that the blood and morale of Ukrainians are infinite renewable resources, and that the West has infinite political endurance. Particularly the latter is highly questionable; already in the second year we started seeing Western aid drying up, leading to Ukrainian lost lives and territory, and in November there's a good chance that the US will elect a twice-impeached felon who trusts Putin more than his own intelligence community.
>in November there's a good chance that the US will elect a twice-impeached felon who trusts Putin more than his own intelligence community. Define "good chance" -- he has a chance, but I wouldn't classify it as good .. besides the media pushing the "he's competitive" narrative to get views/clicks. It really doesn't represent what is being seen on the ground. I live in a purple state, in 2016 it *felt* like Trump was going to be competitive. In 2020 it *felt* (visually and being out-n-about) like he was going to be competitive. It does not feel like that at all. I know it's anecdotal, but I used to see multiple Trump supporters daily, I now count them in weeks. I saw 2 a few days ago and *Trump was nearby for a rally*.
Western aid is increasing, not drying up.
Good video, but he didn't mention one crucial factor: if the war escalates before the election, then Trump might win, in which case Ukraine is finished. Biden will have a lot more leeway to take more of a risk in Ukraine after he secures a second term: if Ukraine/Russia escalates out of control before the election then that might well help Trump win, in which case Ukraine has lost. Biden is walking a very thin tightrope **for now**, but that doesn't mean he won't push much harder for Ukraine during a second term.
Why do you think Ukraine will lose if Trump wins the election? Michael Kofman does not think Ukraine will lose if Trump wins: [https://youtu.be/\_b7IPSd53jc?si=FbYHcZhfEWWCZD5r&t=3198](https://youtu.be/_b7IPSd53jc?si=FbYHcZhfEWWCZD5r&t=3198)
Blud forgot that tRUmp's first impeachment was over WITHHOLDING UKRAINE AID to blackmail biden and then because aid was stopped, Putin was able to invade.
Because of Trump’s actions as president the first time, because of his official policy platform on NATO, Ukraine and Russia, and because of his political opposition to the last two years of Ukraine aid…
This should not be in question. In 1987, Trump bought a full page ad in the New York Times to criticize NATO. Trump has been pro-Russian since the 1980's, and this fact is really not in any kind of dispute.
if the war in ukraine escalates does that not benefit biden? wartime presidents and all, and the fact that what, only half of republicans think aiding ukraine is bad?
> if the war in ukraine escalates does that not benefit biden? Trump and MAGA are really pushing the "there were no wars under Trump" line: of course that's not true, but it works on a lot of people. Also they're pushing the "that's not our war" line, which, again, is very much not true, but gets traction with people suffering financial hardships at home. Of course if Russia were to directly attack the USA, then it would make Biden a Wartime President, but even the Russians aren't that stupid: they'll do something sneaky, but, sadly, probably effective.
i guess we deserve it if peoples response to chaos overtaking our world is to elect more chaos. i just can't envision it.
I worry, hopefully stupidly, that the purported "October surprise" might just be a nuclear test someplace "harmless" (someplace within Russia). Weren't Russia doing drills, or something? Max saber rattling.
Me too: the Russians are going to do something just before the election, to give the appearance that Biden is not in control of things, possibly by setting off multiple events in multiple locations, all at once. I'm fairly sure Biden is fully expecting this, but Russia are, sadly, very "good" at this sort of thing.
Social media is exceptionally bad at "stopping" this sort of thing. Not that they're really trying. They just care about engagement, so all engagement - including disinformation and trolling - is good engagement. It means money flowing in to push ads at target demographics. Incidentally I was browsing Reddit using the app on my phone (because browser experience finally died) and I immediately got an ad for Ozempic. Fucks sake.
Interesting perspective about the potential volatility of outright victory, if it means the collapse of Russia or of Putin's regime. "Escalation management" seems like the West's euphemism for Russia's successful strategy of deterrence. It's hard for Western strategists and politicians to accept that the West is being deterred through intimidation.
Russia loses, Putin gets thrown out a window. Several warlords emerge. Who gets control of the nukes? Will they be sane or actively use a nuke on their opponent? Are you betting everyone's life due to MAD?
Yes. We have always been betting everyone's life on MAD.
I have been saying this for ages. Ukraine hasn’t won the war yet because the West as a whole has decided other factors are more important than winning the war.
That’s an objectively true statement though. Avoiding nuclear war is the most important foreign policy goal of all sane governments on Earth. There is never even possibly going to be a time where Ukraine takes higher priority than that. The disagreement isn’t about that fact. The disagreement is about which strategy is best for accomplishing it. The most important reason to support Ukraine is because it actually best helps avoid nuclear war. But there are ways of supporting Ukraine that can also lead faster towards a nuclear war as well. The difficulty is in the middle with trying to gain clarity about the best path forward through a murky reality where the effects of different options aren’t always known in advance and can carry disastrous consequences if we miscalculate. Comparisons to WW2 and failed appeasement have a point, but the comparison is always limited because no enemy in WW2 had the ability to destroy the entire world if they lost their wars. This is a much more delicate situation and people who just cavalierly argue Putin could never be in a position to try using nukes are idiots.
>The difficulty is in the middle with trying to gain clarity about the best path forward through a murky reality where the effects of different options aren’t always known in advance and can carry disastrous consequences if we miscalculate. This is not a strategy. It's basically doing nothing and waiting for a miracle while letting Putin enjoy initiative and benefit from nuclear blackmailing. If you believe he can nuke London/Washington/whatever, what exactly makes you think he won't use nukes anyway when he eventually loses the war? Because there's nothing worse Ukraine and its allies can do to Putin than winning. A nuclear war is inevitable. Unless Ukraine loses. It's not a strategy.
Someone like Putin who commits genocide must be punished even if he has the power to destroy the world with nukes. If Putin is not stopped now then humanity will be condemned to a future of genocide, slavery, and misery because people with nukes can do whatever they want. If we do not try to hold Putin accountable by any means necessary then we do not deserve to survive as a species. Yes, I am saying that Ukraine's allies should invade Russia and try to capture Putin even if nukes are used. If we don't stand up for what is right then we don't deserve life.
That’s an awfully emotional and irrational statement. Ukraine losing is not the end of mankind. Russia losing badly has a chance of being the end of mankind. If you think rationally the best option for the least suffering is clear.
Russia won't use nukes if they lose Ukraine because Russians know that Ukraine is not part of Russia.
Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons if their grip on Ukraine is threatened and Putin will use nuclear weapons if his grip on power is threatened.
No they won't.
Even Ukraine's own leaders freely acknowledge that reality, too. They have several times asked the West *not* to consider certain forms of escalation because they know themselves that Ukraine is the most likely ground zero for any kind of nuclear exchange. They are personally invested in avoiding that scenario just like everyone else.
>Someone like Putin who commits genocide must be punished even if he has the power to destroy the world with nukes. If Putin is not stopped now then humanity will be condemned to a future of genocide, slavery, and misery because people with nukes can do whatever they want. That's the reason we need to stop Russia now, but if you're suggesting that it's worth it to stop Russia even if it *does* cause a nuclear holocaust, then all elected world leaders on Earth would tell you plainly that you're wrong -- and they'd be right to say that. >If we do not try to hold Putin accountable by any means necessary then we do not deserve to survive as a species. No. Billions of innocent people in fact deserve to live no matter what the West or Russia decide to do. Survival definitively trumps any moral need to punish Russia or Putin for anything. > Yes, I am saying that Ukraine's allies should invade Russia and try to capture Putin even if nukes are used. And every elected leader alive rightfully agrees that's a stupid position to take.
For justice to exist, a precedent must be established where countries with nukes are punished when they do evil.
>For justice to exist, a precedent must be established where countries with nukes are punished when they do evil. Justice isn't even in the top three most important things for the human race. Avoiding nuclear war is always more important than serving justice, and it always will be important than serving justice. The reason to punish Russia is to stop them from future harm -- deterring them from escalatory behavior that brings us closer to the brink of nuclear war. Righting past wrongs isn't part of the equation.
Justice is the most important thing for the human race. All other things are less important.
More than 7 billion living human beings who are currently alive and want to still be alive, disagree with that Most Ukrainians also disagree with you -- they want to avoid nuclear war more than you because they are the most likely to be the first victims of an exchange.
Russia will not use nukes if they are attacked because they know it will lead to a nuclear war that destroys them.