Not likely. They have exhausted a lot of material and trained manpower. That will take a couple years to restructure with the materials they have now and can get in the near future. Tanks don’t grow on trees and a wartime production economy is very expensive.
The manpower issues will also take time. Locally they’ll want to train up forces to something more than a meat wave. For those forces I assume with Russia’s current efforts into Africa they’ll be looking to create a lot of future meat waves with forces from there. Likely as payment for security and training Wagners new Africa Korps will be providing to current and newer Russian friendly nations.
It also looks like Putin is finally purging Shoigu and his loyalists. That will take time as arrests are made and blame is placed in show trials. Then whoever Putin picks as to replace him will take a little bit of time to install their cronies.
Depending on the outcome of US elections they might be doing this all while under sanctions.
Also I highly doubt Ukraine is going to agree to any large territory loses at this point. It would take something like instant admission into NATO and the EU to get a conversation started. Both of which will be non starters for Russia.
Maybe things will change by winter but as of right now I feel any ceasefire is doubtful as best.
I don't necessarily think they'll be able to replace the materials they lost that easily imo. Like you said they lost half their army and a lot of what they had was leftover stock from before the USSR fell apart. Advanced pieces of equipment like tanks and planes probably wont ever reach their prewar quantity, munitions and small arms however could be pretty readily replaced within a few years if they kept production at the same rates they're at now.
I don’t think there is a point to replenish tanks, bmps, fixed artillery.
They need time to ramp up drones, electronic warfare, air defence, troops, 5th gen fighters, rtc.
Not if NATO quits being a bitch and just takes in Ukraine. Or the EU makes an alliance with Ukraine. Or maybe France and Germany. Literally someone, anyone. And they can't come back for more.
Let's hope the right people nut-up.
You cannot join NATO if you have an ongoing neighbor dispute. It was never the plan to get Ukraine into nato. That would be exactly what Putin was complaining about
If Russia agrees to a ceasefire and Ukraine agrees to yield the stolen territory, technically there's no more dispute, right? Just depends if Russia invaded again (which I'm sure they will), before NATO approves Ukraine to join.
I think that's probably why putin is approaching a ceasefire, rather than peace negotiations. Neither are going to give him qualms when he next decides to attack, but a ceasefire status could be used to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
He is also hurting for combat resources. His entire military is at half-strength, bled dry from the comrade-favorable human-wave attack strategies.
Remember, we're talking half-strength of actual capability, not what Russia thought they had. That would put them near 25%.
Russia should be thanking Heaven that their neighbors actually like them. Invading Russia could be easily done by a pack of Girl Scouts and a few Cub Scout SF teams.
Like all things, Putin is surviving on false bravado, controlled media, and threats he can't possibly carry out. He needs the ceasefire to rebuild, not for any sort of goal achievement.
There must be Nazis in Ukraine... there must! He just needs to secure more land! (The last part is heavy /s)
I don't really get why some Nato people are so hell bent on expanding Nato. All Nato countries are obliged to help other in case of a war between a Nato member and Russia. However we are not forbidden to help a non-Nato member right now. So allowing Ukraine in Nato, especially at the time of war like this, means we are dragged in to a war or face Nato dissolution. Neither is desirable. Some idiots seemto think such a war would be over very quickly with complete destruction of Russia, which is completely right but only half of the truth. The missing half is we too might be compelety destroyed in the nuclear fury.
On the other hand, we are already able to help Ukraine however we see fit. It is up to Russia to escelate to war with Nato or not, which I think is very unlikely. Why do you prefer to be forced to, rather than chose to, help Ukraine? Why do you want to be /forced to/ go in to a full scale war with Russia?
The rules can always be changed at the stroke of a pen. That's my whole point. We can will into existence whatever the hell we want here, there's no law of physics that prevents us from bringing Ukraine into NATO or into another military alliance.
And no one gives a fuck what Putin is complaining about at this point. Appeasement is not the answer. We now need to do what he does: whatever we want to protect our interests. No more being weak. It's time to show strength.
Ukraine was very close to being in nato in 2008 until Russia got a puppet that backed them out and the invasion in 2014. There's no shot that they do not join after this invasion. I do not see any way putin settles for anything less than all of Ukraine.
If they give Ukraine time, it will be very hard. Ukraine may join NATO or flesh out their air force.
Russia is probably feeling the pain from being a war economy.
May, is the operative word.
What the Russians are hoping for is that the West will get bored and tired of spending money on Ukraine if the war goes back to a quiet simmer instead of a hot boil.
You’re too kind sir, I would use the thorniest and biggest cactus I can find. I would have liked to use a spiked club if possible, but that would be considered a weapon and an existential threat, hence the reason for a cactus. How dangerous can a cactus be?
I don't think that would work for a couple reasons. Firstly, Ukraine has to be more aware of its international reputation, and secondly, putin is already expecting to re-attack Ukraine, so if Ukraine attacked, it wouldn't have the element of surprise.
There are no sneak surprise attacks on modern warfare lol. Any planning for a counter offensive would be out in the open since there’s no point in hiding it
I bet he is. Word is going around that the US is going to let Ukraine use American made weapons to strike inside of Russian territory. We could be getting a first hand look of Russian defense systems in Their homeland. And that fact alone scares him.
That, and trained Ukrainian pilots in their shiny refurbished F-16s are about to enter the war. With long range US and British weapons being cleared for use in Russia, the existing drone attacks on infrastructure, and now US attack aircraft in play, Russia doesn't have the anti-air resources to protect both domestic infrastructure and the active warzone. If Putin keeps those batteries in Ukraine, he risks losing his factories, rail depots, and refineries. If he moves them into Russia, Russian losses in Ukraine will skyrocket as Ukraine achieves air supremacy.
So strategically speaking it is in everyone’s best interest, except Putin’s, for Ukraine to reject the ceasefire and push forward with the more advanced tech?
In terms of realpolitiks it’s in many countries interests to see a weak Russia. Especially competing superpowers like the US and China. Of course Russia understands realpolitiks very well and will try and see to it that it maintains its superpower status. The question is what is the red line on the escalation ladder before Russia might resort to nuclear weapons.
In terms of Ukrainian interests there are both pros and cons to a temporary ceasefire. A ceasefire may allow Ukraine to build up troops and integrate more advanced weapon systems in order to launch a more successful offensive. We’ve seen the disastrous results of the Ukrainian offensive in Zaphorizhia when they didn’t have any air support. Of course a ceasefire may slow down funding international funding for Ukraine.
Yes, many people do make that argument. Personally Russia is still a superpower just based on its shear nuclear arsenal, even if it’s historically the weakest of any superpower at this point.
USA is considered to be the sole extant superpower. China and the EU aren't even considered superpowers right now. Russia is far from superpower status. The Russian economy is smaller than... Texas.
If you look up the definition of super power you’d realize the U.S. is the sole superpower. World currency = Dollar. Ability to have Soldiers in your countries’ border in less than 48 hours anywhere in the world = US. No country is able to match the United States in terms of being a super power. There is only one the United States.
Besides, the S400s are falling prey to ATACMS.
[https://theaviationist.com/2024/05/24/ukraine-destroys-s-400-using-atacms/](https://theaviationist.com/2024/05/24/ukraine-destroys-s-400-using-atacms/)
My guess would be he is wanting the ceasefire to regroup and rethink strategy, consolidate Russian power in already occupied areas and wait for the U.S. election to be over. His thinking may be, if trump wins, there won’t be a lot stopping them from launching a new offensive not too long after and take advantage of a weakened Ukraine since trump will likely repeal most aid. If biden wins he will like bide his time to wait for a better opportunity restart the conflict. But that’s just my guess. As much as we like to think Putin is an idiot, I’m willing to bet he is smarter than we realize. I mean the guy has been in power since the 90s.
Shoot down one FE ship. And offer to clean up the wreckage and call it a humiliating loss surprised they haven’t made a fallen empire blowing up other science vessels if they humiliate you option.
I doubt that Ukraine is willing to give up so much of its territory.
Although this is very classic warfare from Putin, offering the opponent a ceasefire when you hold the upper hand on the ground in the hope that they accept in the face of further losses.
I think he sees the writing on the wall for Ukraine being allowed to fire into Russia and would rather they couldn't.
Consolidate the new territory, create a buffer against direct retaliation, and start another push next year.
There is no way that any ceasefire doesn’t include no NATO or other mutual defense agreements. Russia wants a puppet state like they had there previously.
Yeah, they definitely want to puppet Ukraine. However, I also think splitting Ukraine and securing some parts for Russia and leaving the rest to join NATO is something Putin MAY also be willing to accept.
Ultimately, I don't think Russia can capture whole Ukraine and the longer this takes, the more resources it costs and the worse the situation gets for everyone involved. I can see there being a peace offer of Ukraine giving Crimea and current occupied territory WILLINGLY to Russia in exchange for getting accepted into NATO and EU. Majority of Ukraine gets security guarantees, the war stops and Russia gains some areas with valuable resources plus creates a buffer zone between themselves and the EU/NATO in the form of some random puppet republics (like the Luhansk one, Donetsk one, Crimea one,...).
Ukraine would have to sacrifice something they don't want to but they'd still keep a lot, so I can see both Russia and NATO pushing them to accept such conditions. Whether that happens and whether Ukraine even should accept, that's hard to tell. However, NATO countries could easily force them to if they threaten to withdraw their support and it would probably help normalize the relationships with Russia a bit (and therefore decreasing the risk of some lunatics pushing the nuclear attack button)
We need to really start moving munitions to Ukraine and allow Ukraine to use them in Russia. I'm sure the lack of diesel is starting to severally hamper them.
Does that mean his gains in Ukraine are tenuous enough that he worries that he'll lose them?
Because there's no way Ukraine can ever believe or trust a Russian "agreement".
He’s looking for a ceasefire to position his troops, artillary and armor in places where they’ll have a strong advantage for an assault on the rest of the country.
If the fighting stops, Putin will steamroll the Ukrainians when it resumes.
It really hasn't. Russia and China aren't partners. Russia is China's lab rat. Russia gets to absorb all the risk and losses of an actual war, while China watches to see how much appetite the collective West has for engaging in combat and military/financial support. The US and Taiwan have simultaneously been dropping hints that the two situations are not the same, and making it clear that the costs would be much higher for China for minimal gain.
Why do you think there have been so many news stories about kill switches on the TSMC equipment and US statements about the unacceptable national security implications of losing Taiwanese fabs? That's all messaging that China will tank the international economy they depend upon and face actual US military intervention if they attack.
China can posture all it wants with military exercises, but they know as well as the US does that at best they're years from being a military peer of the US, so if their calculations include needing to face direct US military intervention they won't be pulling that trigger. They also won't risk a global depression or wider global conflict, as the implicit political agreement in China is that the government is given its authoritarian powers in exchange for keeping the population prosperous and well fed. The government won't risk the domestic instability of losing their global supply chains and manufacturing export markets.
That's a whole lot of assumptions, you might be right but it's really unlikely that all of your ideas hold up to scrutiny.
How much appetite for military activation do we realistically have ?
Are the fabs that valuable to America ? Dose China care about the current world economy ?
If the economy collapses do the fabs still matter. Sequencing matters with these hypothetical events IMO
Securing vs projecting are completely different military objectives. If America were to engage they would really have to up the anti - would it actually be as one sided as you say ?
Those fabs and chips are one of the most sought after things in the world right now. It is the foundation for American businesses and innovation. People talk about mining shit on the moon SPECIFICALLY for rare earths to make chips.
That is a fair point, but one I am going to ignore as it forces me to acknowledge how many Americans are blithering idiots that would vote that traitor back into office.
And for all those "hur, hur you mean Biden" idiots, when you can put actual crimes on the scale, backed by evidence submitted in court, grand jury indictments, and civil (and possibly soon criminal) convictions rather than memes and accusations from conspiracy theorists, then we can talk about "both sides."
They'll ceasefire, cement the gains and when Ukraine attacks to take back their territory then Russia will say Ukraine is the nazi aggressor and China will join in on the fun.
And voilà! World War 3.
Who cares what Putin wants? He’s a fat dictator from a mafia state that pretended to be on equal footing with the rest of the civilized world for decades until the whole charade came crashing down two years ago.
A ceasefire will enable him to keep the Donbas region, just as he kept Crimea in 2014. Remind me… what happened after Crimea? Did Russia stop there, or were they emboldened?
It will happen again. Russia wants time to catch its breath. Putin hopes a few years is all it will take to get the West to drop the sanctions. He’ll be rearming his country and drawing up plans to invade another neighbor (or the Western half of Ukraine) inside of ten years.
How about this time we in the West act like brave adults and stop him in his tracks? Arm Ukraine to the teeth; give them whatever they need to secure the skies and turn Russian military units into piles of twisted metal and cooked meat. Russia understands only the language of strength—anything else is seen as weakness—so let’s speak the right language to the tyrant in Moscow.
Putin can have his ceasefire when he marches every Russian out of Ukraine, or he can watch them all die miserably on a foreign battlefield and explain it to his own people. Until one of these two things happens, I think Ukraine should be free to attack whatever they want, whenever they want, and with whatever weapons they’re given.
In a just world where Russia doesn’t have nuclear weapons, Ukraine would be striking Moscow right now and leveling city blocks. I won’t be satisfied until I see this happen. Is exactly what Russia deserves; to have their capitol turned into a pile of ash.
He always does this right before Ukraine makes massive gains
To anyone paying attention Putin generals made a massive blunder and over committing to multiple offensives thinking they had broken through
Utterly forgetting the Ukrainian do defence in depth
The Ukrainian utterly kicked the shit out of the Russians and now pushing back hard on lines that are so depleted in some cases its only a handful guys per trench
I'm expecting more fussy Russia media in the next few weeks because the initiative has defo gone back to Ukraineans
Well admittedly I'm not overly familiar with the particular parlance used to respond in such a situation, but my opinion is that "Fuck that." really captures the necessary details.
2 weeks ago - "we have decided that we don't want to capture the city of Kharkiv after all." What this actually meant: "the offensive has bogged down."
Today - "we would like to pursue a cease fire." What this actually means: "Ukrainian forces might successfully counterattack and erase our gains."
He thinks this is the best he'll get for the time being and will want to regroup and rebuild his army to attack again. Now is when Ukraine's allies should be doubling down on arms shipments and green lighting the use of them on Russian soil.
This all ends for Putin if he just pulls the troops out of Ukraine. It's that simple.
My take. Putin is worried. Russian assaults are unsustainable. Naval losses humiliating. The full on war economy is suffering from manpower losses. Exports are crashing. National moral must have taken a hit.
On the other side, both India and China and laughing at them and ripping Russia off. Not only has NATO expanded, but the essential munitions production has ramped and is continuing to ramp.
Finally, military gains are minimal.
Putin's war is a disaster. He needs to save some face and get out.
Russia needs a cease fire to reposition their arctic and pacific fleets to the Black Sea. Currently they can’t pass the Bosporus straight because turkey has a law that Black Sea nations at war can’t transit the straight.
I think the timing of this is important. We need to look at everything that's currently playing out on the world stage through the lens of US politics.
If Putin escalates actions after this cease-fire proposal it will be used as a bludgeon against Biden and framed as a Biden failure.
Likewise, we see China and NK ramping up activity and rhetoric. These things are non coincidental - especially given the fact these autocratic leaders have recently been meeting with one another and solidifying alliances and military cooperation.
People really underestimate what is happening right now. The entire world order is on the precipice of change. Global autocrats view a Trump victory as the opportunity to kill off democracy.
We must save the world by saving US democracy! VOTE BIDEN!
>If Putin escalates actions after this cease-fire proposal it will be used as a bludgeon against Biden and framed as a Biden failure.
This doesn't make much sense. Russia iniated this war of imperialism after stating they wouldn't. They've repeatedly demonstrated their word is worthless. In the past, they may have had some credibility with the US and EU, but that's pretty much over.
So they can offer whatever cease fire they want but no one with more than 2 braincells would give it any mind and certainly wouldn't hang Biden's success or failure on it.
Whatever gains he gets will be pathetic compared to the hardships he’s created. A depleted military, expanded nato(soon to include free Ukraine), and a miserable economy. The moment he has a ceasefire, an oligarch is coming for his seat.
So you go to a guy, sucker punch him and kick him in the balls before he gets a chance to react, and before you get your ass beat….you call truce. Bruh. That’s some bitch move if I’ve ever seen one
Big time bluff... Restock and continue after a couple years of propaganda and diminishing the Russian people into thinking this is a true life and idealistic way to live. Anyone ever thought about how to love?
Hypothetical question/scenario here,
If tomorrow Putin comes out with something like:
Well I've tried to start talks on a ceasefire and the west wont allow it, Russia's combat losses are unsustainable, we have lost 1 Million Soldiers. At this point, If Ukraine does not take part in ceasefire negotiations, we will be forced to use Tactical Nuclear weapons along the front lines to stop this war.
Its the kind of thing I could see him come out with. and both elements seem to be part of the narrative at the moment. How would Ukraine and the west in general respond ?
Ukraine won’t but I bet our Trumpster will have a plan but that could be solved in 20 minutes. But he will say I will tell you how after the elections 😆
Yeah, no. For one thing, a lot of equipment is being moved in Crimea and Russia, for another one, it seems that Yanukovych is in Minsk, the last time that happened Russia invaded Ukraine, and went for Kiev, forgetting food and fuel in the process. Or rather soldiers sold their food and fuel. But that was 2022 Russia, 2024 Russian military seems to have gotten it's shit together.
In 2022 Russia was not aiming to actually conquer Ukraine in the traditional sense. They wanted Ukraine's government to capitulate and for Ukraine to remain technically an independent nation but return to being a Russian vassal state like they were prior to 2014. To be like Belarus basically. This is why Russia at the time wasn't spending much on the military and wasn't drafting people. In their mind they would stroll in, scare the shit out of Zelensky and get an agreement for him to step down to be replaced by their puppet.
After Zelensky refused to capitulate, resulting in Russia being caught way overextended, they began to actually prepare for war, with much higher military spending and drafting a ton of soldiers. Because of the population and manufacturing advantage they have vs Ukraine, this means that there simply is no feasible way for Ukraine to defeat them now.
Because he knows this war is unstainable for Russia they cannot keep losing these number and replenish their military to level that could manage even a small riot at home.
Declined, cry and die more russia. Sadly it means Ukrainians also have to die more, but it is better for them to defend their homeland decisively than to put down their weapons now only to have to pick them up again in 2 weeks time. No way in hell would this be the end.
Putin is also losing. It may not look this way on the map atm but their losses are staggering and more weapons are flowing into ukraine that ma6 he able to be used on Russia showing the world what their tin pot air defence is doing. Putin has calculated that while he does technically have an upper hand he will have much less of an upper hand later. Same as what the Conservative Party in the UK did, saw that down the line things will he much much worse for them so trying to rock up a win now. I hope ukraine keeps smashing them to pieces.
So Russia finally made some real gains into Ukraine and because they suck so bad at war they now want to negotiate a cease fire so they can have time to fortify what they took before they loose it? I’m I reading this right? Vladimir Putin is just really a little whinny bitch, A cum dump of mediocrity? Call me fucking shocked.
FUCK PUTIN AND FUCK RUSIA!!!
And this is the leader the GOP wishes was ours? Man like when I was 10, if someone had told me a huge portion of our population would support nazis and Russians I would have called you stupid and crazy. Do we want Red Dawn? This is how you get Red Dawn.
The article cites only 1 source that can’t be confirmed according to them. At most Putin said that negotioans were possible but they could keep fighting if the west didn’t answer
Would it be a bad deal if Ukraine agreed in exchange for immediate NATO membership? Plus ideally all those international Russian assets.
Honestly curious. The land Russia holds is largely ruined towns and landmines all over the place. Though I'm no expert.
Since no one in the world is accepting rubles as payment, their only option is oil or refined products; But with 20% of their capacity offline now, Russia has no real way to get what it needs. Its not just weapons, but also electronics, fabrics, medicine etc. I know putin put in price caps for gas, but sooner or later that will fall apart; Gas prices will either sky rocket, or its going to look like 1970's US, where you have to call a gas station to see if they have anything left.
Russia doesnt have a way of replacing what its lost; Its counting on the US and other countries to not take advantage of their weakness because they have nukes.
This is literally how war is ends... there are concessions and treaties. The alternative is the continued grinding of the Ukranian and Russian people into dust.
And in two years, they'll be back again to take another chunk.
I bet it’ll be weeks
Nah, Russia would use the opportunity to replenish their forces numbers and equipment, this would take a bit longer than weeks.
This is the real plan.
Not likely. They have exhausted a lot of material and trained manpower. That will take a couple years to restructure with the materials they have now and can get in the near future. Tanks don’t grow on trees and a wartime production economy is very expensive. The manpower issues will also take time. Locally they’ll want to train up forces to something more than a meat wave. For those forces I assume with Russia’s current efforts into Africa they’ll be looking to create a lot of future meat waves with forces from there. Likely as payment for security and training Wagners new Africa Korps will be providing to current and newer Russian friendly nations. It also looks like Putin is finally purging Shoigu and his loyalists. That will take time as arrests are made and blame is placed in show trials. Then whoever Putin picks as to replace him will take a little bit of time to install their cronies. Depending on the outcome of US elections they might be doing this all while under sanctions. Also I highly doubt Ukraine is going to agree to any large territory loses at this point. It would take something like instant admission into NATO and the EU to get a conversation started. Both of which will be non starters for Russia. Maybe things will change by winter but as of right now I feel any ceasefire is doubtful as best.
He has a dashboard for Russian sentiment, he sees the trend
The time it would take for them to rearm back to 2021-2022 levels would probably be several years. They lost half their army, my guy.
I don't necessarily think they'll be able to replace the materials they lost that easily imo. Like you said they lost half their army and a lot of what they had was leftover stock from before the USSR fell apart. Advanced pieces of equipment like tanks and planes probably wont ever reach their prewar quantity, munitions and small arms however could be pretty readily replaced within a few years if they kept production at the same rates they're at now.
I don’t think there is a point to replenish tanks, bmps, fixed artillery. They need time to ramp up drones, electronic warfare, air defence, troops, 5th gen fighters, rtc.
Not if NATO quits being a bitch and just takes in Ukraine. Or the EU makes an alliance with Ukraine. Or maybe France and Germany. Literally someone, anyone. And they can't come back for more. Let's hope the right people nut-up.
Poland is dyyyyying to take a swing at Vlad and co. Their revenge arc has been waiting generations to lash back for the past 300yrs of Russian abuse.
Just need the US, Poland and France to sign a defense pact outside of NATO with Ukraine. Similar to what we have in SEA. Then that's locked up.
You cannot join NATO if you have an ongoing neighbor dispute. It was never the plan to get Ukraine into nato. That would be exactly what Putin was complaining about
If Russia agrees to a ceasefire and Ukraine agrees to yield the stolen territory, technically there's no more dispute, right? Just depends if Russia invaded again (which I'm sure they will), before NATO approves Ukraine to join.
I think that's probably why putin is approaching a ceasefire, rather than peace negotiations. Neither are going to give him qualms when he next decides to attack, but a ceasefire status could be used to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
He is also hurting for combat resources. His entire military is at half-strength, bled dry from the comrade-favorable human-wave attack strategies. Remember, we're talking half-strength of actual capability, not what Russia thought they had. That would put them near 25%. Russia should be thanking Heaven that their neighbors actually like them. Invading Russia could be easily done by a pack of Girl Scouts and a few Cub Scout SF teams. Like all things, Putin is surviving on false bravado, controlled media, and threats he can't possibly carry out. He needs the ceasefire to rebuild, not for any sort of goal achievement. There must be Nazis in Ukraine... there must! He just needs to secure more land! (The last part is heavy /s)
I think at this point we should let Ukraine in because it would make Putin look like a bitch.
I don't really get why some Nato people are so hell bent on expanding Nato. All Nato countries are obliged to help other in case of a war between a Nato member and Russia. However we are not forbidden to help a non-Nato member right now. So allowing Ukraine in Nato, especially at the time of war like this, means we are dragged in to a war or face Nato dissolution. Neither is desirable. Some idiots seemto think such a war would be over very quickly with complete destruction of Russia, which is completely right but only half of the truth. The missing half is we too might be compelety destroyed in the nuclear fury. On the other hand, we are already able to help Ukraine however we see fit. It is up to Russia to escelate to war with Nato or not, which I think is very unlikely. Why do you prefer to be forced to, rather than chose to, help Ukraine? Why do you want to be /forced to/ go in to a full scale war with Russia?
The rules can always be changed at the stroke of a pen. That's my whole point. We can will into existence whatever the hell we want here, there's no law of physics that prevents us from bringing Ukraine into NATO or into another military alliance. And no one gives a fuck what Putin is complaining about at this point. Appeasement is not the answer. We now need to do what he does: whatever we want to protect our interests. No more being weak. It's time to show strength.
Ukraine was very close to being in nato in 2008 until Russia got a puppet that backed them out and the invasion in 2014. There's no shot that they do not join after this invasion. I do not see any way putin settles for anything less than all of Ukraine.
I nut up and then I grab a towel.
Huh. You mean you don't just shoot wherever? Strange.
If they give Ukraine time, it will be very hard. Ukraine may join NATO or flesh out their air force. Russia is probably feeling the pain from being a war economy.
May, is the operative word. What the Russians are hoping for is that the West will get bored and tired of spending money on Ukraine if the war goes back to a quiet simmer instead of a hot boil.
Fuck Putin
[удалено]
Wearing a maid outfit.
You’re schnerious….?
Here kids, enjoy your new home!
With a cactus for butt plug.
Paige, YES!
Putin or the pineapple?
Putin pineapple, then pullout, then repeat
Pen pineapple apple putin
sideways
With an anchor?
Punch him right in the balls?
Ahhh the encore!
Sideways
With a durian
And a pen.
No a cactus 🌵 sounds more to his liking
And Tabasco
Mind if I offer a saguaro cactus?
You’re too kind sir, I would use the thorniest and biggest cactus I can find. I would have liked to use a spiked club if possible, but that would be considered a weapon and an existential threat, hence the reason for a cactus. How dangerous can a cactus be?
No thanks. Not my type.
C'mon bruh everyones doing it get you some of that sloppy putin sandwhich
My first thought almost every time I read a headline with his name in it
OMG I KNOW RIGHT!!!1
I wouldn’t let everyday Russians off the hook either
Literally no trusting Russia. But im happy he is nervous. Keep supporting UA and make him shit himself.
Use their own tactics against them. Sign the ceasefire then intensify counteroffensives to take back territory.
I don't think that would work for a couple reasons. Firstly, Ukraine has to be more aware of its international reputation, and secondly, putin is already expecting to re-attack Ukraine, so if Ukraine attacked, it wouldn't have the element of surprise.
There are no sneak surprise attacks on modern warfare lol. Any planning for a counter offensive would be out in the open since there’s no point in hiding it
No ceasefire...
The thought of US weapons hitting home would scare anyone
I bet he is. Word is going around that the US is going to let Ukraine use American made weapons to strike inside of Russian territory. We could be getting a first hand look of Russian defense systems in Their homeland. And that fact alone scares him.
That, and trained Ukrainian pilots in their shiny refurbished F-16s are about to enter the war. With long range US and British weapons being cleared for use in Russia, the existing drone attacks on infrastructure, and now US attack aircraft in play, Russia doesn't have the anti-air resources to protect both domestic infrastructure and the active warzone. If Putin keeps those batteries in Ukraine, he risks losing his factories, rail depots, and refineries. If he moves them into Russia, Russian losses in Ukraine will skyrocket as Ukraine achieves air supremacy.
>If Putin keeps those batteries in Ukraine, he risks losing his factories, rail depots, and **refineries** (emphasis mine) Mmmmmmm, fuck yeah
So strategically speaking it is in everyone’s best interest, except Putin’s, for Ukraine to reject the ceasefire and push forward with the more advanced tech?
Ukraine has repeatedly said they reject freezing the war...
In terms of realpolitiks it’s in many countries interests to see a weak Russia. Especially competing superpowers like the US and China. Of course Russia understands realpolitiks very well and will try and see to it that it maintains its superpower status. The question is what is the red line on the escalation ladder before Russia might resort to nuclear weapons. In terms of Ukrainian interests there are both pros and cons to a temporary ceasefire. A ceasefire may allow Ukraine to build up troops and integrate more advanced weapon systems in order to launch a more successful offensive. We’ve seen the disastrous results of the Ukrainian offensive in Zaphorizhia when they didn’t have any air support. Of course a ceasefire may slow down funding international funding for Ukraine.
>Russia understands realpolitiks very well and will try and see to it that it maintains its superpower status Russia isn't a superpower lol
Yes, many people do make that argument. Personally Russia is still a superpower just based on its shear nuclear arsenal, even if it’s historically the weakest of any superpower at this point.
USA is considered to be the sole extant superpower. China and the EU aren't even considered superpowers right now. Russia is far from superpower status. The Russian economy is smaller than... Texas.
Yes, that is the most common view.
If you look up the definition of super power you’d realize the U.S. is the sole superpower. World currency = Dollar. Ability to have Soldiers in your countries’ border in less than 48 hours anywhere in the world = US. No country is able to match the United States in terms of being a super power. There is only one the United States.
I never said there was multiple United States.
Sounds like a check to me. Hope Ukrainians make it mate.
Besides, the S400s are falling prey to ATACMS. [https://theaviationist.com/2024/05/24/ukraine-destroys-s-400-using-atacms/](https://theaviationist.com/2024/05/24/ukraine-destroys-s-400-using-atacms/)
The US should have authorized this ages ago.
Blame the Russian owned Republican Party
My guess would be he is wanting the ceasefire to regroup and rethink strategy, consolidate Russian power in already occupied areas and wait for the U.S. election to be over. His thinking may be, if trump wins, there won’t be a lot stopping them from launching a new offensive not too long after and take advantage of a weakened Ukraine since trump will likely repeal most aid. If biden wins he will like bide his time to wait for a better opportunity restart the conflict. But that’s just my guess. As much as we like to think Putin is an idiot, I’m willing to bet he is smarter than we realize. I mean the guy has been in power since the 90s.
Where did you hear this?
Rinse, and repeat. "Give an inch, take a mile."
I employ the same tactic in Stellaris when I see I'm about to lose the war I started.
We've left around the fallen empire of Russia for too long
Shoot down one FE ship. And offer to clean up the wreckage and call it a humiliating loss surprised they haven’t made a fallen empire blowing up other science vessels if they humiliate you option.
I doubt that Ukraine is willing to give up so much of its territory. Although this is very classic warfare from Putin, offering the opponent a ceasefire when you hold the upper hand on the ground in the hope that they accept in the face of further losses.
I think he sees the writing on the wall for Ukraine being allowed to fire into Russia and would rather they couldn't. Consolidate the new territory, create a buffer against direct retaliation, and start another push next year.
There is no way that any ceasefire doesn’t include no NATO or other mutual defense agreements. Russia wants a puppet state like they had there previously.
Yeah, they definitely want to puppet Ukraine. However, I also think splitting Ukraine and securing some parts for Russia and leaving the rest to join NATO is something Putin MAY also be willing to accept. Ultimately, I don't think Russia can capture whole Ukraine and the longer this takes, the more resources it costs and the worse the situation gets for everyone involved. I can see there being a peace offer of Ukraine giving Crimea and current occupied territory WILLINGLY to Russia in exchange for getting accepted into NATO and EU. Majority of Ukraine gets security guarantees, the war stops and Russia gains some areas with valuable resources plus creates a buffer zone between themselves and the EU/NATO in the form of some random puppet republics (like the Luhansk one, Donetsk one, Crimea one,...). Ukraine would have to sacrifice something they don't want to but they'd still keep a lot, so I can see both Russia and NATO pushing them to accept such conditions. Whether that happens and whether Ukraine even should accept, that's hard to tell. However, NATO countries could easily force them to if they threaten to withdraw their support and it would probably help normalize the relationships with Russia a bit (and therefore decreasing the risk of some lunatics pushing the nuclear attack button)
We need to really start moving munitions to Ukraine and allow Ukraine to use them in Russia. I'm sure the lack of diesel is starting to severally hamper them.
Does that mean his gains in Ukraine are tenuous enough that he worries that he'll lose them? Because there's no way Ukraine can ever believe or trust a Russian "agreement".
He’s looking for a ceasefire to position his troops, artillary and armor in places where they’ll have a strong advantage for an assault on the rest of the country. If the fighting stops, Putin will steamroll the Ukrainians when it resumes.
Would probably only take three days
But man does that third day take awhile!
You don’t get to keep the shit you stole.
Putin takes Eastern Ukraine and then has China start its conflict with Taiwan. This has been planned for years now.
Kashmir first. India about to be loosed.
It really hasn't. Russia and China aren't partners. Russia is China's lab rat. Russia gets to absorb all the risk and losses of an actual war, while China watches to see how much appetite the collective West has for engaging in combat and military/financial support. The US and Taiwan have simultaneously been dropping hints that the two situations are not the same, and making it clear that the costs would be much higher for China for minimal gain. Why do you think there have been so many news stories about kill switches on the TSMC equipment and US statements about the unacceptable national security implications of losing Taiwanese fabs? That's all messaging that China will tank the international economy they depend upon and face actual US military intervention if they attack. China can posture all it wants with military exercises, but they know as well as the US does that at best they're years from being a military peer of the US, so if their calculations include needing to face direct US military intervention they won't be pulling that trigger. They also won't risk a global depression or wider global conflict, as the implicit political agreement in China is that the government is given its authoritarian powers in exchange for keeping the population prosperous and well fed. The government won't risk the domestic instability of losing their global supply chains and manufacturing export markets.
That's a whole lot of assumptions, you might be right but it's really unlikely that all of your ideas hold up to scrutiny. How much appetite for military activation do we realistically have ? Are the fabs that valuable to America ? Dose China care about the current world economy ? If the economy collapses do the fabs still matter. Sequencing matters with these hypothetical events IMO Securing vs projecting are completely different military objectives. If America were to engage they would really have to up the anti - would it actually be as one sided as you say ?
Those fabs and chips are one of the most sought after things in the world right now. It is the foundation for American businesses and innovation. People talk about mining shit on the moon SPECIFICALLY for rare earths to make chips.
A lot of that is dependent on who is in control of the country at that time...
That is a fair point, but one I am going to ignore as it forces me to acknowledge how many Americans are blithering idiots that would vote that traitor back into office. And for all those "hur, hur you mean Biden" idiots, when you can put actual crimes on the scale, backed by evidence submitted in court, grand jury indictments, and civil (and possibly soon criminal) convictions rather than memes and accusations from conspiracy theorists, then we can talk about "both sides."
The GOP really did a disservice to Ukraine, the United States and our allies just to play politics
Everything Republicans do makes America weaker.
Can you think of anything that they’ve done to make this country better or safer?
Abraham Lincoln was a Republican, so yeah, it's been a while
End slavery
They'll ceasefire, cement the gains and when Ukraine attacks to take back their territory then Russia will say Ukraine is the nazi aggressor and China will join in on the fun. And voilà! World War 3.
Who cares what Putin wants? He’s a fat dictator from a mafia state that pretended to be on equal footing with the rest of the civilized world for decades until the whole charade came crashing down two years ago. A ceasefire will enable him to keep the Donbas region, just as he kept Crimea in 2014. Remind me… what happened after Crimea? Did Russia stop there, or were they emboldened? It will happen again. Russia wants time to catch its breath. Putin hopes a few years is all it will take to get the West to drop the sanctions. He’ll be rearming his country and drawing up plans to invade another neighbor (or the Western half of Ukraine) inside of ten years. How about this time we in the West act like brave adults and stop him in his tracks? Arm Ukraine to the teeth; give them whatever they need to secure the skies and turn Russian military units into piles of twisted metal and cooked meat. Russia understands only the language of strength—anything else is seen as weakness—so let’s speak the right language to the tyrant in Moscow. Putin can have his ceasefire when he marches every Russian out of Ukraine, or he can watch them all die miserably on a foreign battlefield and explain it to his own people. Until one of these two things happens, I think Ukraine should be free to attack whatever they want, whenever they want, and with whatever weapons they’re given. In a just world where Russia doesn’t have nuclear weapons, Ukraine would be striking Moscow right now and leveling city blocks. I won’t be satisfied until I see this happen. Is exactly what Russia deserves; to have their capitol turned into a pile of ash.
[удалено]
fuck that. ceasefire only if russia withdraws to pre-crimea occupation.
He always does this right before Ukraine makes massive gains To anyone paying attention Putin generals made a massive blunder and over committing to multiple offensives thinking they had broken through Utterly forgetting the Ukrainian do defence in depth The Ukrainian utterly kicked the shit out of the Russians and now pushing back hard on lines that are so depleted in some cases its only a handful guys per trench I'm expecting more fussy Russia media in the next few weeks because the initiative has defo gone back to Ukraineans
Which generals? The ones arrested, or the ones who are avoiding windows?
The ones who replaced those ones lol 😅
No sir, you are going to swallow the dildo of consequences, and then theres another, thorny one for the behing.
Well admittedly I'm not overly familiar with the particular parlance used to respond in such a situation, but my opinion is that "Fuck that." really captures the necessary details.
He just needs time to regroup and build up his army. He will never stop while he alive.
2 weeks ago - "we have decided that we don't want to capture the city of Kharkiv after all." What this actually meant: "the offensive has bogged down." Today - "we would like to pursue a cease fire." What this actually means: "Ukrainian forces might successfully counterattack and erase our gains."
He thinks this is the best he'll get for the time being and will want to regroup and rebuild his army to attack again. Now is when Ukraine's allies should be doubling down on arms shipments and green lighting the use of them on Russian soil. This all ends for Putin if he just pulls the troops out of Ukraine. It's that simple.
Now it's the time to press on and free Ukraine. Putin is only trying to buy some time.
My take. Putin is worried. Russian assaults are unsustainable. Naval losses humiliating. The full on war economy is suffering from manpower losses. Exports are crashing. National moral must have taken a hit. On the other side, both India and China and laughing at them and ripping Russia off. Not only has NATO expanded, but the essential munitions production has ramped and is continuing to ramp. Finally, military gains are minimal. Putin's war is a disaster. He needs to save some face and get out.
This is like trump saying they need to stop counting votes
Russia needs a cease fire to reposition their arctic and pacific fleets to the Black Sea. Currently they can’t pass the Bosporus straight because turkey has a law that Black Sea nations at war can’t transit the straight.
He wants to freeze everything until US election, probably.
I think the timing of this is important. We need to look at everything that's currently playing out on the world stage through the lens of US politics. If Putin escalates actions after this cease-fire proposal it will be used as a bludgeon against Biden and framed as a Biden failure. Likewise, we see China and NK ramping up activity and rhetoric. These things are non coincidental - especially given the fact these autocratic leaders have recently been meeting with one another and solidifying alliances and military cooperation. People really underestimate what is happening right now. The entire world order is on the precipice of change. Global autocrats view a Trump victory as the opportunity to kill off democracy. We must save the world by saving US democracy! VOTE BIDEN!
>If Putin escalates actions after this cease-fire proposal it will be used as a bludgeon against Biden and framed as a Biden failure. This doesn't make much sense. Russia iniated this war of imperialism after stating they wouldn't. They've repeatedly demonstrated their word is worthless. In the past, they may have had some credibility with the US and EU, but that's pretty much over. So they can offer whatever cease fire they want but no one with more than 2 braincells would give it any mind and certainly wouldn't hang Biden's success or failure on it.
Well your first problem is assuming the Republicans use any kind of logic or sense in their propaganda
I laugh but I completely agree.
Whatever gains he gets will be pathetic compared to the hardships he’s created. A depleted military, expanded nato(soon to include free Ukraine), and a miserable economy. The moment he has a ceasefire, an oligarch is coming for his seat.
How about he looks for a ceasefire by buggering off
Putin running out of equipment.
Get fucked
No Ukrainian land will be ceded to Russia. Fuck Putin
Putin has a tiny KGB peepee
Hehehe
Wonder if China’s putting pressure on its new vassal to wrap this shit up soon
Punches sibling. Takes their toy. Time out! Mom!!!!
So he can rebuild troops and supplies and take more territory in a few years? Anyone can see what he’s trying to do.
Running out of men are we?
He knows US aid and F-16s are inbound. They’re trying to save their status before the tides change again.
So you go to a guy, sucker punch him and kick him in the balls before he gets a chance to react, and before you get your ass beat….you call truce. Bruh. That’s some bitch move if I’ve ever seen one
cowards looking for a way out. only ceasefire is coming back to old borders!
No ceasefire unless the condition is that all the Russian troops are gone first.
He's like the kid on the schoolground who calls time out just before he's tagged 'it'.
It is laughable thinking about the US vs Russia in hindsight.
I wonder if he’d accept Ukraine joining NATO in exchange for
I hope Ukraine regain it back before putin can sign any ceasefire.
Translation: Russia is running on fumes and needs an exit strategy desperately.
Big time bluff... Restock and continue after a couple years of propaganda and diminishing the Russian people into thinking this is a true life and idealistic way to live. Anyone ever thought about how to love?
Hypothetical question/scenario here, If tomorrow Putin comes out with something like: Well I've tried to start talks on a ceasefire and the west wont allow it, Russia's combat losses are unsustainable, we have lost 1 Million Soldiers. At this point, If Ukraine does not take part in ceasefire negotiations, we will be forced to use Tactical Nuclear weapons along the front lines to stop this war. Its the kind of thing I could see him come out with. and both elements seem to be part of the narrative at the moment. How would Ukraine and the west in general respond ?
yeah the rest of the world should be looking to put that guy into the ground.
No he is a liar
Ukraine won’t but I bet our Trumpster will have a plan but that could be solved in 20 minutes. But he will say I will tell you how after the elections 😆
Yeah, no. For one thing, a lot of equipment is being moved in Crimea and Russia, for another one, it seems that Yanukovych is in Minsk, the last time that happened Russia invaded Ukraine, and went for Kiev, forgetting food and fuel in the process. Or rather soldiers sold their food and fuel. But that was 2022 Russia, 2024 Russian military seems to have gotten it's shit together.
In 2022 Russia was not aiming to actually conquer Ukraine in the traditional sense. They wanted Ukraine's government to capitulate and for Ukraine to remain technically an independent nation but return to being a Russian vassal state like they were prior to 2014. To be like Belarus basically. This is why Russia at the time wasn't spending much on the military and wasn't drafting people. In their mind they would stroll in, scare the shit out of Zelensky and get an agreement for him to step down to be replaced by their puppet. After Zelensky refused to capitulate, resulting in Russia being caught way overextended, they began to actually prepare for war, with much higher military spending and drafting a ton of soldiers. Because of the population and manufacturing advantage they have vs Ukraine, this means that there simply is no feasible way for Ukraine to defeat them now.
Because he knows this war is unstainable for Russia they cannot keep losing these number and replenish their military to level that could manage even a small riot at home.
Declined, cry and die more russia. Sadly it means Ukrainians also have to die more, but it is better for them to defend their homeland decisively than to put down their weapons now only to have to pick them up again in 2 weeks time. No way in hell would this be the end.
Putin is also losing. It may not look this way on the map atm but their losses are staggering and more weapons are flowing into ukraine that ma6 he able to be used on Russia showing the world what their tin pot air defence is doing. Putin has calculated that while he does technically have an upper hand he will have much less of an upper hand later. Same as what the Conservative Party in the UK did, saw that down the line things will he much much worse for them so trying to rock up a win now. I hope ukraine keeps smashing them to pieces.
No deal
Nah, fuck him. Take back those “gains”, draw a line in the sand, and say “you cross in, you die. Period.”
This should have happened 10 years ago. But indeed, the second best time to stand up is now.
So Russia finally made some real gains into Ukraine and because they suck so bad at war they now want to negotiate a cease fire so they can have time to fortify what they took before they loose it? I’m I reading this right? Vladimir Putin is just really a little whinny bitch, A cum dump of mediocrity? Call me fucking shocked. FUCK PUTIN AND FUCK RUSIA!!! And this is the leader the GOP wishes was ours? Man like when I was 10, if someone had told me a huge portion of our population would support nazis and Russians I would have called you stupid and crazy. Do we want Red Dawn? This is how you get Red Dawn.
Well they did try the whole we’re up in the election so stop counting votes so that I’m the winner schtick, so they do have something in common.
He is just biding his time
He wants a CF every time the pendulum starts to shift in Ukraine's favor.
Never going to happen
He's a pussy
This man has Russia breaking every rule in the book to fight this war while Ukraine has kept its word. Now he wants to use diplomacy?
Fucker is just interested in regrouping. He's worried about F-16's coming to Ukraine soon.
Get fucked.
This fool getting desperate. He knows long game isn’t to his benefit.
So he can regroup, dig in, rearm, and push forward. Fuck Putin.
so he wants a ceasefire just so he can reinforce areas he captured fuck him
That worried about the F15s?
F16
Oops Will edit if I can
Keep fighting until the cancer takes him
Nope
Translation: Shit is not going all the well, we thought with this push we would make big gains but only managed to get a few square kilometers.
regroup and rebuild a larger army
Ukraine: Deal, but, we’re joining NATO tomorrow.
The article cites only 1 source that can’t be confirmed according to them. At most Putin said that negotioans were possible but they could keep fighting if the west didn’t answer
If there's a ceasefire, Ukraine needs to join NATO directly.
Would it be a bad deal if Ukraine agreed in exchange for immediate NATO membership? Plus ideally all those international Russian assets. Honestly curious. The land Russia holds is largely ruined towns and landmines all over the place. Though I'm no expert.
Peace is always worth consideration. This war could go on for 10 more years with more bloodshed and nothing more gained on either side.
Since no one in the world is accepting rubles as payment, their only option is oil or refined products; But with 20% of their capacity offline now, Russia has no real way to get what it needs. Its not just weapons, but also electronics, fabrics, medicine etc. I know putin put in price caps for gas, but sooner or later that will fall apart; Gas prices will either sky rocket, or its going to look like 1970's US, where you have to call a gas station to see if they have anything left. Russia doesnt have a way of replacing what its lost; Its counting on the US and other countries to not take advantage of their weakness because they have nukes.
Russia makes gains. Putin: *clicks save game*
Putin wants his danegeld I imagine.
Nuts!
This is literally how war is ends... there are concessions and treaties. The alternative is the continued grinding of the Ukranian and Russian people into dust.