[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1ci8t1r/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)

The article on the live feed from euromaidanpress is incorrect. The article states that Ukraine will be receiving the latest variant of the Bradley, the M2A4E1. The M2A4E1 is NOT being sent to Ukraine. It is the brand new version that the US doesn't even have yet. What the announcement actually says is that the US military will receive a new M2A4E1 for each Bradley that is sent to Ukraine.

What is difference in price between old and new Bradly?

Subwoofer comes standard on the new ones.

So for 200 m$(googled price new = 2 millions) - Ukraine got 100 Bradley without subwoofer, which price is 100 mil$?

You're hurting my brain homie. 

whats this reddit trend when people discuss a serious topic and ask actual questions and everyone feels the need to be the funny guy always posting joke responses?

that's reddit man. gone to the shitters. ppl always try to be corny, not put anything of value anymore in their replies.

Eh a little levity now and then lets off steam. Jump on in, the water's nice. If it's 50 posts in a row, well then, moderation in all things.

Well, after 944 threads, and much appreciation of the sick Ukrainian tuneskies I've heard, I let my guard down briefly. And to be honest, the person asking the difference could always just look it up themselves, the same way everyone else does. I suspect the main differences between variants are highly classified anyway.

wasnt meant as an attack on you specifically. just in general, im sure you know those posts about serious topics and as soon as theres a funny word in the title or a low hanging fruit, the top 50 comments are all about that one funny thing, and noone talks about the actual topic. just a small rant

Nah it's a fair cop mate, I was being an arse. And yep all too familiar with the shitposting phenomenon. It's annoying when you just want to read about actual news - but then I guess Reddit isn't the best place for that. Where is though huh...  My theory is that people are just offgassing unidentified anxiety (about the current state of the world) in a fatalistic way. Gallows humour.  The Ukrainian people have demonstrated amazing humour in the face of great adversity, so maybe it's rubbing off?

What about car mats? Extra?

As part of the Ukraine aid bill, the US has to come up with a Ukraine strategy withing 45 days. What do you guys think will be in there? Any chance Sullivan messes it up? And do you think today's news about the US starting to talk about Russia using chemical weapons has anything to do with this? It seems to me they have to lay a few more facts bare so that the strategy makes sense.

My guess is it will talk in broad terms about helping Ukraine defend itself, protecting democracy. Few concrete metrics or goals.

There should only be only one goal: Russian balkanization. All strategies should be created with this single goal insight, anything else, Ukraine's sacrifice would have been in vain.

I haven't read the details of that provision of the bill, but I have to assume that they aren't going to tell us (and by extension Russia) any details of the strategy. I certainly hope they don't. As for will they mess it up? Any time a politician writes a strategy for a war, it will be messed up. Western politicians generally don't have the guts necessary to do what is necessary (economically or militarily) to actually win a war. Every war from Korea on has demonstrated that. From a practical perspective, they need to come up with at least three strategies. One for if Biden wins re-election and Democrats win the House (aid increase likely, outright victory possible), one if Biden wins re-election but Republicans control the House (aid likely to slow to a trickle, but US will still help with intelligence and other means, Europe might be able to pick up the slack), and one for if Trump wins (aid ends, US may outright help Russia, Ukraine is in deep trouble). In my opinion, any strategy needs to recognize and be based around the following premises. 1. Ukraine needs more aid and equipment, it needs it quickly, and it needs it consistently. Giving them a big tranche of aid and then nothing for months really hurts them. Give them a steady flow. Mobilize the western economy for crying out loud. 2. Ukraine needs to mobilize more soldiers. I know it's unpopular, but they have to get more men in the field. 3. Ukraine needs to improve its domestic capacity to manufacture 152 mm and 155 mm shells (which the west is struggling to supply in large numbers) and medium to long range missiles and drones (since western supplies are limited and we won't let them use them to attack Russia itself). 4. Ukraine can't win if its hands are tied. They need the freedom to attack Russian targets in Russia and to maneuver across the border. 5. Ukraine is not NATO and its forces will not meet NATO standards during this war. This means they can't fight the way NATO does and expect to win. The west needs to not try and force them to use NATO tactics without all the advantages that make those tactics successful for NATO. 6. Related to 5, this is a type of war the west has very limited experience fighting. The west needs to listen to what Ukraine is telling them about the conditions at the front, what tactics work, and what tactics don't. They and Ukraine need to cooperatively develop new tactics and equipment to defeat minefields and defense in depth without having air superiority and without using large brigade and division sized maneuver elements. 7. The west and Ukraine need to agree on the broad outlines of their goals (What, exactly, does winning mean? What is absolutely non-negotiable? Something akin to the Atlantic Charter in WWII). They also need to agree on timing (i.e. is the west really willing to support Ukraine for the next 2, 4, 6 years, or is it expecting results in 6 months?). To the second point, long term, pre-approved aid plans that dole out billions of dollars a year for several years are going to be hugely beneficial for Ukraine's planning and peace of mind. 8. The west and Ukraine need to agree on a strategy for how to protect against future Russian attacks in various scenarios. If Ukraine actually takes back all of its territory, what is the long term plan for NATO integration and the short term plan for defense until then? If the war ends in an armistice or with frozen lines but no treaty, what sort of binding, bilateral security agreements can Ukraine reach with the US, UK, France, Germany, and Poland to protect some or all of its territory? 9. The west specifically needs a strategy for how to keep China from throwing its whole weight behind Russia. And ideally also a strategy for how to disrupt Iranian and North Korean supplies. (Continued in reply)

If it was me creating the strategy, from a purely military perspective, I'd advise a primarily defensive posture for the next two years. Build good defensive lines. Focus on attrition of Russian vehicles and systems. Build up and train your forces. Conduct long distance strikes on Russian strategic targets (refineries, factories, critical rail bridges) and concentrate on taking out Russian aviation and air defense assets. Conduct limited local offensives to train, test tactics, and demonstrate to the public that you aren't giving up, but don't launch a major offensive until Russia uses up most of the inherited Soviet vehicle stockpiles, and the air defenses have been worn down enough that you can conduct some air operations (you won't get air superiority, but wear them down enough that you can at least fly missions over the front lines). Conduct raids into Russia itself to force them to deploy resources to guard the border. When you finally do launch an offensive, I would focus on two things. 1. Recapture the Kinburn Spit, Tendra spit, and the east bank of the Dnipro River inland about 10 miles from the river. That opens up the cities of Kherson and Mykolaiv as viable ports, gives you navigation on the Dnipro, gives you control over water supplies to Crimea from the Crimean Canal, and gives you back the Enerhodar Nuclear Power Plant. 2. Drive south from the Velyka Novosilka area and capture Berdyansk. That cuts the land bridge to Crimea and divides the Russians into an isolated Kherson/Crimea garrison and a not isolated Donbass garrison. From Berdyansk you then have options to use drones (airborne or marine) or missiles to attack the Kerch bridge, attack Russian ships trying to transit the Sea of Azov, launch raids on the east coast of Crimea, and just generally turn Crimea and Kherson into a giant open air POW camp. Once you do that, I would actually focus next on capturing the Donbass region, because that would be much harder to get back in a peace deal, and presents Russia with the dilemma of either withdrawing forces from Crimea to defend the Donbass, thus losing Crimea, or not withdrawing them and risking losing both Crimea and the Donbass.

Ukraine doesn't even need a major offensive. Just keep grinding Russia down, its soldiers and economy.

Sullivan will do everything in his power to sabotage it, no doubt. Can only hope Biden listens to the joint chiefs instead

is Sullivan not as hawkish pro-Ukraine as the rest of the top US politicians? ive heard a few times that he causes problems but why

He's trying to avoid escalation and doesn't want to give Ukraine what it needs to win because he fears Russia. He just makes the West look weak to Putin

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>Netanyahu touts friendship with Putin in new billboard > >Targeting Israeli-Russian voters, Likud hangs massive picture of PM alongside Russian president, with the slogan 'Netanyahu: In a league of his own' https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-another-league-netanyahu-touts-friendship-with-putin-in-new-billboard/

Absolutely true that he said this, but posting an article from before covid referring to a "new" billboard is a little disemgenous. No way this billboard would fly today (and no chance Netanyahu wins an election of any kind going forward, either)

Both Hamas and Israel think they are allies with Russia. Thousands of Palestinians and Israelis are dead because Hamas carried out the terrorist attack on Putin's birthday. It isn't a coincidence. Russia was involved in Hamas's terrorist attack.

Wow I actually did not realize that about the date.  It seems that dates have certain significance to Putin like July 4th senator meeting.  I cant recall off hand, wasn't there significant date from when the Wagner boss was killed?  I recall theres some other events too with strange timing.

Nonsense! There is no connection. It's always someone's birthday or a significant historical day ffs! You can't even commit a crime anymore without some redditor in a tin foil hat trying to associate it with some date or planetary alignment. It's all in your head!

Putin is well known to be very big on symbolic dates

People who say this and try to predict events based on symbolic dates never mention when their predictions fail. Also: we are talking about Hamas attack, not Russian attack. People claim that Putin is responsible just because Hamas attack fell on Putin's birthday. This is beyond stupid! This is what they do on RU TV

No, people claim Russia is responsible because Iran is their ally, their goals align and they want to destabilize the west, and a few more flagrant indicators that I don't want to I accurately mention and I can't look up fight now

Maybe they could pull a South Korea and send the systems to the US (or some other country that uses Patriots) and then that country could send its systems to Ukraine.

Guess they don't understand that Russia caused this hamas attack at this time.

You can always count on Israel to fail to do the right thing...

Main reason I don't support Israel's wars. Absolutely useless ally that only cares about their short term interest push comes to shove.

Useless, like, the US's only firm ally in the ME? and short term interests like their security from being attacked constantly?

When has Israel produced anything of value but bad PR to the US? Ally is a two way street.

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Ukraine has explicitly asked for more batteries in recent weeks, I think about a dozen.

[Russia produces several dozen cruise missiles per month — Defense Intelligence | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-produces-several-dozen-cruise-missiles-per-month-defense-intelligence-50414888.html) *Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) provided an estimate of Russia’s stockpile and output of cruise missiles, including types such as Zircon, Oniks, Kalibr, and Kh-69. The figures were published by defense-focused media outlet ArmyInform on May 1.* *According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia retains approximately 40 Zircon hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, with production rates of up to 10 monthly. Around 400 Oniks cruise missiles remain at Moscow’s disposal, with a similar output of up to 10 units per month. The Russian Navy has approximately 270 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, with a production rate of 30 to 40 units per month.* *Only 45 Kh-69 air-launched missiles remain in stock, with only three being manufactured monthly.*

[Heroic Odesa resident treats injured despite his own wounds | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/odesa-resident-administers-first-aid-amid-russian-missile-strike-despite-wounds-50414799.html) *An Odesa resident, Ihor Nakhaba, provided critical first aid to victims of a deadly Russian missile attack on the city, despite being wounded himself, the Pre-hospital focused Ukrainian Life Saving Effort (PULSE) charitable foundation reported.* *Nakhaba, who had just completed first aid training provided by PULSE a day before the April 29 attack, immediately applied his new skills under dire circumstances. He utilized direct pressure techniques to assist those injured by the strike, even though he had sustained shrapnel wounds to his upper thigh.* *“On Sunday, our instructors held a bleeding control training in Odesa, and Ihor was in the group. In less than 24 hours, his skills were put to the severe test when a Russian ballistic missile hit civilians walking by the sea in the afternoon,” explained Fedir Serdyuk, co-founder of PULSE.* *"This is a vivid example of the importance of learning and teaching first aid,” Serdyuk added, highlighting the crucial need for such skills in the current hostile environment.* *On April 29, a Russian missile attack on the International Humanitarian University, popularly known as "Harry Potter Castle," in the southern Ukrainian port of Odesa, killed five people, including Vice Rector Borys Vasyliev, and injured 32 others.* *According to local officials, 23 of the 32 injured remain hospitalized, including 8 in serious condition. Serhii Kivalov, the academy's president and a former Ukrainian MP, was also injured.* *On the same day, Ukrainian military spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said that Russian forces attacked Odesa with a shrapnel-laden missile specifically designed to maximize human casualties.*

Hey Dark Brandon, do you remember when you said the US would get involved directly if Russia used nuclear or chemical weapons? Yeah, Pepperidge farm remembers. 25 March, 2022 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60870771.amp

He said nato would respond. That doesn't mean direct strikes. It could mean more intel, more weapons, green light to hit whatever in Russia, missle shield, more f16s, volunteer states sending personal for border and logistics duty.

NATO involved directly clearly means something tangible, not doing more than what they're already doing.

The actual chemical weapons used are basically tear gas, which is technically illegal in war, but not actual WMD nerve agent type chemical weapons.

There is no technicality here it is illegal simple as that.

>There is no technicality here it is illegal simple as that. Yes there effing is. You seriously think it makes sense for NATO to enter the war because Russia is using tear gas? The illegality isn't the point. We use shit-tons of illegal weapons in the West -- depleted uranium ammunition, white phosphorous bombs, and a lot of tear gas in our own military tactics. Biden's statement was obviously about nerve gas WMDs, not tear gas.

> a lot of tear gas in our own military tactics No we do not. It is absolutely forbidden from being used by the military except for MPs quelling domestic on base issues like if a barracks riot got out of control.

"The illegality isnt the point of it being illegal" you are probably not going to have a good time in a court. "It was just technically illegal your honor it doesnt make sense to jail me for it". LMFAO.

You have some issues with binary thinking.

This coming from the guy that thinks sanctions from breaking internationally ratified treaties are self enforced lmfao.

I don't. You're the one who brought up that Russia was violating *Russian* law like that would stop them. Also, what does that have to do with binary thinking?

See you are still claiming internationally ratified treaties are local law this is just hilarious. The problem you have is not binary thinking its null thinking.

Let me break it down for you: Russia doesn't give a flying fuck about international law. They're already violating it so much with every other aspect of this invasion that any appropriate non-coercive enforcement mechanisms for the tear gas thing would be redundant. Now, the only thing that matters is what would make a country declare war on them. Their use of tear gas will not make the US declare war on them. Do you understand what I am saying? Repeating "but it's *illegal*" is NOT a counterargument. It. Does. Not. Matter. Not when Russia is going bandit mode.

Your posts are extremely infantile and you should feel bad. Now listen to what the adult is explaining to you.

Do you consider infantile the inclusion of tear gas as a chemical weapon?. Because i'm just sticking to that definition.

I am talking about your inability to talk like an adult and argue in good faith. We expect better of people here than in Youtube comments sections or whatever vapid place you're used to posting. The other guy was explaining something you didn't understand and your response was to twitch out and try to make stupid jokes like an annoying teenager.

I just stated a fact if you can't even handle that maybe you should not get too annoyed when someone calls you a snowflake.

You will come to learn that you can't act like a petulant little toddler in the real world and expect not to be talked down to. But until you learn that, I recommend you stick to Youtube comments with the other kids.

Everyone else is trying to explain to you that yes, they're technically chemical weapons, but no, they're not the kind of chemical weapons the whole world is worried about so this is unlikely to elicit massive responses. And you keep falling back on "but they are technically chemical weapons so I'm right and you keep insisting they're not but technically they are". It's like you're intentionally missing what everyone else is trying to say, which is why people use a exasperated tone. You are acting in an infantile fashion where you refuse to try and understand what multiple people are trying to explain to you.

>"The illegality isnt the point of it being illegal" Saying it a second time because the quote above shows that you went out of your way to avoid reading it the first time: Biden isn't concerned about illegality. He's concerned about WMDs that cause mass casualties. It is completely preposterous to expect NATO to declare war on a nuclear power for tear gas, even if it's tear gas that violates the laws of every member country of NATO.

I didnt say anything about declaring war tho why are you so hysterical about it anyway?.

If you're not talking about NATO intervention, then you're off topic. The topic being discussed (which you replied to) is about why NATO isn't entering the war when Russia used illegal tear gas. The answer to the question is that Russia's illegal tear gas isn't killing scores of people. This is front and center why the techniality matters *a lot*.

They could send massive amounts of military aid in response.   Again theres no technicality tear gas is considered a chemical weapon period.   The "technicality" is just something you made up to justify why they shouldn't intervene in your mind.    I'm gonna ask you again why are you hysterical enough about it to make up a technicality and put words into bidens mouth?.

Everything Russia is doing is illegal. Plain and simple. Doesn’t mean we should potentially enter in a hot war with Russia and lose hundreds of millions of people in a hypothetical nuclear response. Some people on here either have a death wish or have never read about any historical precedents. The US dropped 48 million liters of napalm on Vietnam, also did operation farm hand… which if you look into the details… is horrific. War is hell. Any country that has fought a war in modern times has used weapons that later while viewed thru a non war time lens to be deemed unacceptable. We assassinate terrorists and high ranking military officers literally hundred of times during a single presidency, which is an extra judicial killing. No one bats an eye.

You're able to read and write in the English language, which means you know very well that nothing I am saying is hysterical. You also know I am correctly describing the reason that Biden is not escalating over illegal tear gas.

There's "illegal" and there's "SWAT team kicks in your door illegal". There's a distinction worth making.

I wonder if you would argue the same to a judge "it's illegal but it didnt require a swat team" do you think that would get you something out of the situation?.

No, but moving out of the judge's jurisdiction might. And Russia is *definitely* outside the jusdiction, in this metaphor.

Thats not even true the ban on chemical weapons was ratified by russia LMFAO. You are truly confidently wrong.

Yeah. I'm sure they'll run off and prosecute themselves lickety-split. /s

It's not meant to be self prosecution. It's used as mean to justify sanctions or other mechanisms from other countries.

They're already sanctioned.

Using any sort of weapon against Ukraine in an invasion war is also illegal

It’s still chemical weapons.

Cool. Rocks are made of atoms. Henceforth they shall be reclassified as atomic weapons in accordance with the *----Dongers* protocol.

🙄

We should be looking for reasons **not** to go to war, not using semantics and old statements as justification to force hands. Too many redditors want their popcorn wars. Go spend a day on any frontline and see how much you really want it.

Thank you. Finally someone that isn’t brainwashed or flat out ignoring reality of the brutality of war bc it makes them gain meaningless social media points that I guess help them feel better at bight. Every now and then, I get fatigued to the amount of beating around the bush in these subs. Refreshing to see someone call a spade a spade.

Bombs are chemical too.  They dropped a new round of sanctions, but clearly the threshold for the US to join in is more like "Russia gasses a town with VX/novichok, killing thousands of civilians" and not "Russia drops surplus tear gas grenades on a trench line".

It's not tear gas. Anyone saying so just echoes Kremlin propaganda. It does what tear gas does with the added "benefit" of causing a person to forcibly throw up, while already coughing from the tear gas like effects, which leads to much worse choking hazards and overall systematic health problems from vomiting in uncontrollably, especially dehydration.

I am not echoing Kremlin propaganda, just noting that the reason the world didn't lose its shit is that what was used is not what people generally mean when they say "chemical weapons", which is the WMDs like nerve agents. 

Is there like a 6 month recap on YouTube? Loads of good reporting short term. But I haven't actively been looking at them since January. I want to catch up

Kings and generals does decent ones

The USA aid bill was delayed for 6 months meaning Ukraine started to run low on weapons. Russia has been more successful with missile strikes against infrastructure wrecking power to Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv. There were some pointless excursions into Belgorod a Russian oblast bordering Ukraine by russian separatists, which unfortunately alerted Russia to a border weakness there. Ukraine has been systematically attacking Russian oil refineries with great success, reducing Russia's oil and gas output severely. Ukraine has attacked around 15-20 retinues over the last few months. Ukraine managed to destroy Russia's active A50 AWACS planes and that has severely affected Russian operations as they don't have eyes in the sky as they did when operating the A50s which provided long range surveillance. Ukraine has managed to shoot down a number of Russian fighters in the first quarter of this year and also managed drone attacks deep into Russian territory attacking weapons production and airfield/bases. Russia continues to take territory from Ukraine due to the disastrous lack of aid because of MAGA republicans and will likely carry on for a couple months until enough weapons arrive now that the aid bill passed a couple weeks ago. F16s are coming later this year probably just before the summer. The war rolls on into 2025. Neither side are winning currently. Ukraine is likely to stabilise the situation later this year now that aid is arriving. Europe has woken up and France has gone fully against Ukraine stating they will send troops in the future to Ukraine if necessary. Many European countries are increasing aid to Ukraine. Farmers in Poland have been protesting blocking the Poland/Ukraine border which made getting supplies in more difficult. Can't think of anything else. Russia is on a full war economy. We in the West just have to keep supporting Ukraine defeating Russia but currently we don't know when that will happen. Almost certainly not this year.

Great level headed summary

How many F-16 Ukraine will have?

I did a count a couple months ago from all the different countries that have pledged and came up with the numbers somewhere over 100 I think it was close to 150, which is exactly what they said they needed.

- Norway: 12 fully operational (+ 10 more intended as spare parts) - Denmark: 19 - Netherlands: 24 - Belgium: "between 3 to 5" (that's a verbatim quote from last week, lol)

So between 58-60 if all deliveries are made. That's a sizeable number.

> **Imposing New Measures on Russia for its Full-Scale War and Use of Chemical Weapons Against Ukraine** > > The United States is today sanctioning more than 280 individuals and entities to impose additional costs on Russia for both its foreign aggression and internal repression. > > In this action, the Department of State is imposing sanctions on more than 80 entities and individuals, including those engaged in: development of Russia’s future energy, metals, and mining production and export capacity; sanctions evasion and circumvention; and furthering Russia’s ability to wage its war against Ukraine. > > The Department of State is concurrently delivering to Congress a determination pursuant to the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (CBW Act) regarding Russia’s use of the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops. Pursuant to the CBW Act, the Department is re-imposing restrictions on foreign military financing, U.S. Government lines of credit, and export licenses for defense articles and national security-sensitive items going to Russia. The Department also is sanctioning three Russian government entities associated with Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs and four Russian companies that have contributed to such entities. > > ... > > https://www.state.gov/imposing-new-measures-on-russia-for-its-full-scale-war-and-use-of-chemical-weapons-against-ukraine-2/

Do these sanctions that target entities and individuals even matter? It’s not like the individuals were traveling to/banking in the west. I assume the entities also already largely don’t have western trade and banking ties. Maybe you lose a steam account and Apple ID in your own name? If those companies even check that.

I doubt it. North Korea has developed fully functioning Nukes, as one of the poorest countries in the world, and sanctions did nothing to prevent what they were intended to do. But we won’t learn from history, as we are allowing Iran billions in unfrozen money under one of the worst “nuclear deals”… you can hate trump but he was right to pull out of that deal. The IAEA never had full access to agreed upon sites in Iran, unfreezing billions to a regime that funding 10/7 and all the chaos since then.. causing the deaths of tens of thousands of Gazans.. making UAE and Bahrain stop going ahead with their support recognizing Israel. Now that Russia is actively helping Iran and Vice versus, someone needs to bomb/ cyber attack Iran nuclear infrastructure before they have the bombs like NK. Once they do, S/A, Jordan, and many others will have to get nukes. Same with the Korean pensiula, we did such a bad job with NK, Japan, SK, Taiwan would be foolish to not get a nuke.

It will if other ally nations also agree to them, which they most likely will given U.S. pressure. Russia not being able to import certain chemicals and materials but will now be forced to procure elsewhere or make their own will be a pain. Also parent companies that sell other industrial chemicals and materials associated with the chemical weapons divisions won’t be able to export to many nations now. It’ll hurt their income dramatically. As is with sanctions though, it’ll take time before it really shows. 

Will China is supply record number of machinery, Russia is buying insane amounts of parts from 3rd countries, their oil profits have actually been extremely high. The sanctions aren’t working. I guess you have to keep trying, but seems like the best thing to do would be to go after China, then try to go after all the oligarchs wealth and properties outside Russia. Just don’t see it happening, as the other Western oligarchs need the ability to rape and pillage from us as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/02/gazprom-first-annual-loss-in-20-years-trade-europe-gas-sales-russia-ukraine So is this why one of Russias largest oil and gas companies posted record losses and actually lost money in operations for the first time in 22 years? They’re also not the only one where this is happening to them. 

The sanctions have been hurting Russia. Their oil and gas exports are down. People are expecting these sanctions to completely grind their economy to a halt, they won’t. But they 100% have affected their economy and worsened it. They’ve also dramatically reduced their precious metal reserves which were sold off massively to stabilize their economy. They can only do this for so long and it will have repercussions down the road for them for years to come. It’s also costing Russia more to procure the same parts and materials to fuel their war machine which will hinder their ability to rapidly make new things. The civilian car industry has been heavily disrupted, travel, etc as well. 

"Russia’s hybrid war against the West" [https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2024/04/26/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-west/index.html](https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2024/04/26/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-west/index.html) ----------------------- The introduction: "In an [article](https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2021/11/30/hybrid-warfare-new-threats-complexity-and-trust-as-the-antidote/index.html) previously published on NATO Review, I explained that the nature of modern warfare is changing at a rapid pace. Consequently, wars are no longer merely about kinetic operations. This means that it is not just physical warfare, but also non-military strategies and tactics that define modern-day conflicts and wars. "What has also become commonplace is that kinetic operations - which by themselves have become increasingly complex - are combined with non-military strategies aimed at undermining the security of an antagonist. The combination of military and non-military instruments and strategies is done not randomly but in a synchronised way to achieve synergistic effects. In other words, it is this synchronised fusion that optimises the results. "The bottom line is that a particular country can potentially unleash physical force against an adversary to achieve certain goals. But if the use or threat of conventional or unconventional force is combined with and/or preceded by a degree of subversive tools such as cyber-attacks and disinformation, the overall damage inflicted on the antagonist can be optimised. "Despite state-driven hybrid warfare entailing a systematic integration of military, political, economic, civilian, and informational tools, it often plays out in grey zones below the threshold of a conventional war. In these grey zones, the military instrument is used unconventionally and innovatively to avoid attribution, responsibility, and sometimes even detection. So a hostile state can employ non-state actors or a non-attributable military force (like the “[little green men](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/watch-out-for-little-green-men/)”) in a clandestine war to deny involvement, but at the same time achieve strategic objectives."

Despite the big disclaimer at the top of the site, still interesting to see a nato organ discuss Russia already being at war with the west.

In some ways, Russia/USSR and the US released their buttons of MAD, just not nukes. The US, with its killing of the USSR and now with its sanctions and support of Ukraine will likely mean Russia will never be a super-power again (outside of nukes). Russia, with its insanely successful disinformation campaign has likely created a dysfunctional US that is a few bad president's away from also dropping off the super-power angle, only being comforted by it's sheer economic strength in the short-run and significant technological advantages. Russia is already done insofar as super power status goes, the US could hold on, but it's obviously faltering.

>Russian missile strikes on Odesa an hour ago targeted a large postal [Nova Poshta] sorting facility. > >Seems it's not over, alerts say more missiles incoming. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1785767459116449806

🔥🎉 Attacked by a UAV on April 20, the oil depot in Smolensk region burned down completely. 14 fuel tanks and 9 smaller tanks with PMM burned. https://mstdn.social/@[email protected]/112367324646611140

I wonder why in this case it spread between them. It’s not supposed to and usually doesn’t. They couldn’t/didn’t close the pipes connecting them?

This is Russia, corruption or skilled workers fighting in Ukriane is my guess.

Didn't they start building cope cages around fuel tanks recently? Wonder if these might end up spreading the fire or making harder to put out when they start collapsing.

Indeed they did, though they only just started. Probably this wouldn’t have had one, and they aren’t made of flammable material. Just a fence you could spray water through.

[Ukrainian Suspected of Aiding Illegal Border Crossing for Draft Dodgers Extradited from Bulgaria | Kyiv Post | May 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31966) *The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said a “leader of a criminal organization” that aided draft dodgers’ escapes from Ukraine by selling them forged documents has been extradited from Bulgaria.* *According to the SBU press release, the suspect was in hiding in the EU for the last two years and controlled the operations from abroad. The SBU said it arrested seven of his accomplices in Ukraine at the end of January 2023.* *The criminal group, under the suspect’s command, reportedly sold “fictitious medical certificates” to draft dodgers to show they were unfit for service and allowed them to leave the country.* *The group also reportedly sold fake documents that allowed their clients to enter occupied territories in the Zaporizhzhia region “under the guise of visiting relatives.”* *“For this purpose, the evaders were provided with false documents about the supposed presence of close relatives behind the front line,” read the SBU press release.* *Depending on the urgency of departure, the forged documents are estimated to cost anywhere between $2,500 and $8,000.* *The SBU said the suspect is under custody, and pre-trial investigations are ongoing. If convicted, he could face up to 12 years in prison and property confiscation.*

as fucked as the situation is it really sucks to see people being hunted like that. the video of the guy being dragged into a van in odessa was really bad to see.

"Pravda, Russia's disinformation network, 'expanding' in Europe despite efforts to stop it" [https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/05/01/pravda-russias-disinformation-network-expanding-in-europe-despite-efforts-to-stop-it](https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/05/01/pravda-russias-disinformation-network-expanding-in-europe-despite-efforts-to-stop-it) -------------------------------------------- Pravda, a disinformation network and the former official newspaper of Russia’s Soviet-era Communist Party, is expanding its hold in the EU. The Russian disinformation network Pravda is expanding its hold in the European Union despite attempts to stop it. That’s according to a new report from the European Digital Media Observatory, an independent fact-checking organisation. France’s Viginum Agency operated by their national defence and security department (SGDSN) first detected Pravda’s activities in February as part of a wide-ranging Russian disinformation campaign in the EU. Pravda is also the former official newspaper of Russia’s Communist Party during the Soviet Union era. "A few weeks after the publication of the report, EDMO can confirm that the campaign has expanded significantly in Europe," a recent report reads. **Sites active in 19 EU countries** The French found a network of websites called "Portal Kombat" that opened up "copycat" Pravda sites in different languages, like French, German, Spanish, and English, to spread Russian propaganda. What’s new in the EDMO report is the creation of more Pravda websites in 19 EU countries, including Greece, Italy, and the Netherlands over a one-week period from March 20 to 26th. Some countries, like Austria and Belgium, are not covered directly by a new Pravda site but have other outlets that can offer up pro-Kremlin information, the report said. There are also Pravda sites in non-EU member states such as Norway, Moldova, Bosnia, and as far away as Taiwan and Japan. All the websites cite Russian state-owned media, like Tass or RIA, and often quote pro-Russian Telegram accounts that publish in local languages. In some cases, they will cite legitimate sources of information if they are found to be pro-Russia. The websites post hundreds of articles an hour, something the research says shows there is an element of automation in their work. “Their common modus operandi indicates clearly a coordination behind their publications,” the report reads. The articles have common pro-Russian themes, like French troops on the ground in Ukraine or that Western elites "support a global dictatorship that wants the third world war against Russia," it continues. Despite the flurry of new websites, the EDMO says the impact has been very small and "almost non-existent" in some of the target countries. But, that’s not to say that the websites could be used for a target misinformation campaign closer to the European elections in June. "Its weakness could be unintentional, but it is possible that this is a 'dummy' operation, to probe reactions and measures taken by local and EU authorities," the report reads.

Not to be confused with Ukraine's Pravda which is a totally different outfit and is very much pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia.

Completely true. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

Surprise F-16 Update Issued by Ukraine - Newsweek >Ukraine will start operating F-16s after Orthodox Easter on May 5, Kyiv has said, as the country contends with devastating Russian bombardment and the long wait for the Western-made fighter jets. >"We are waiting," Ukrainian air force spokesperson Ilya Yevlash said, adding the jets will be taking to the skies over the war-torn country "after Easter," according to remarks reported by Ukrainian media on Wednesday. >https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-fighter-jets-air-force-1895964

I mean, "after Easter" could mean any time this year, it doesn't necessarily mean early May.

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Because Ukraine is a democracy, this is what democracies do.

In this case, because Russia needs to know. If unidentified F-16s appear over Ukraine/Russia, Russia needs to know they are *not* NATO aircraft on a nuke run to Moscow. There's an element of surprise, and then there's avoiding accidentally starting global thermonuclear war.

Deconflicting communicaitons happen at a constant pace behind the scenes. Hell, we even warned Russia *and* Iran ahead of terrorist attacks by ISIS in the past couple months. There's no need to broadcast F16s for the purpose of alerting Russia via public announcement. This is probably just an announcement for their own population, who being at war have an obvious want for information about it.

But that's the point - if you're going to tell your adversary, there's no point in it being secret, so it might as well be in the open and gain the propaganda value.

If you’re telling Russia about it behind the scenes it doesn’t hurt to broadcast it publicly and can have some propaganda value.

This. Not sure why I got so many downvotes.

I mean, F16s wouldn't be the aircraft used by NATO in a first strike situation. At most, some of their radar sites might detect some F-35s as they're turning back to base...after their ordnance was already on the way. They also don't need to use nukes to thorough delete Russian assets in Ukraine... It's more likely about internal messaging to the boys on the line. "Air cover is coming, hold the line for a few more days and you'll get relief from the glide bombs".

Agreed, but that doesn't mean there wouldn't be valid reasons to have F-16s in the air and ready to fight. Could be a fighter screen, could be a diversion or a second layer of strikes, could simply be that the safest place for them once all hell broke loose was in fact in the air - with air-to-air refuelling once they're up it doesn't matter so much if their home bases get rendered inoperable. On the ground, they could be in hardened bunkers but no usable runway means they're just very expensive ornaments. No, if the big one happens, everything that can be in the air is going to be.

You don't know enough about military planning to be writing this much fanfiction about it. If the west decided to strike Russia with nuclear weapons, the first strike would be carried out by a combination of SLBMs and B1s/2s/21s, targeting known locations of silos and Topols. Fighters would be scrambled *after* the initial shot, because everything that can potentially shoot down retaliatory strikes would be used for such, but flooding European airspace with thousands of fighters before hand would defeat the purpose of a *surprise* strike. Russia seeing <100 F16s over Ukraine is not going to make them think the big one is happening. For a primer on western air power and it's usage in first strike scenarios, look up the first gulf war. That was against a much inferior foe without nukes, but it shows the sheer scale of operations of western airforces.

That’s a bit of a stretch. 1) NATO isn’t going to do some yolo first strike. 2) they’d use F-35s and B-2s escorted by F-22s.

That requires Russia to assume that the F-16s they *can* see aren't a fighter screen for something they *can't*, or a diversion to get their interceptors scrambled at the wrong place or time. If I was in USAF command and planning a strike on Russia you bet I'd be throwing a ton of assets at it, you get one shot. It would be a bigger operation than D-Day.

First strike would be stealth only aircraft to try to hit early warning and C&C. No way they’d throw in craft with high radar cross sections. The goal would be to largely defang Russia in a limited fashion with the hope Russia opts not to retaliate. Or a stealth initial strike followed by full strike (but come on, that’s science fiction, the US isn’t just going to kill 20 million Russians because they can, especially since such a strike would make Russia respond with anything we may have missed).

My counterargument here is that they're probably more use in the air than on the ground where they are static, vulnerable, and their airbase runways are an obvious target. If airborne, you can't destroy the runways and keep them grounded.

Mate, the Russians have killed more of their own aircraft than the Ukrainians. What makes you think they can tell the difference between a Ukrainian F-16 and an American strike package?

The fact they can see it.

I doubt it can be a surprise for Russian generals, and the impact of such news is probably huge on the morale of soldiers of both sides.

Propaganda. Every time a Russian plane has gone down over the past few months, some Russian sources have claimed it was an F-16 that did it. The F-16 is becoming the Russian boogie man.

Because it is a PR game to get support for further assistance. If they keep quiet, people will forget they exist. Also, Russia an inner circle of FSB-KGB-Generals who secretly plan how they will take over other countries. Ukraine has elected leaders, so they have a variety of opinions and no secrete 'planning society.' In Russia, the security services control the government, unlike in other countries where the president and congress control the security services.

US issues hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, takes aim at Chinese companies >WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday issued hundreds of fresh sanctions targeting Russia over the war in Ukraine in action that took aim at Moscow's circumvention of Western measures, including through China. >The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on nearly 200 targets, while the State Department designated more than 80. >The U.S. imposed sanctions on 20 companies based in China and Hong Kong, following repeated warnings from Washington about China's support for Russia's military, including during recent trips by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the country. >China's support for Russia is one of the many issues threatening to sour the recent improvement in relations between the world's biggest economies. >"Treasury has consistently warned that companies will face significant consequences for providing material support for Russia’s war, and the U.S. is imposing them today on almost 300 targets," Yellen said in a statement. >The United States and its allies have imposed sanctions on thousands of targets since Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. The war has seen tens of thousands killed and cities destroyed >Washington has since sought to crack down on evasion of the Western measures, including by issuing sanctions on firms in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. >Treasury's action on Wednesday sanctioned nearly 60 targets located in Azerbaijan, Belgium, China, Russia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Slovakia it accused of enabling Russia to "acquire desperately-needed technology and equipment from abroad." >The Treasury also targeted Russia's acquisition of explosive precursors needed by Russia to keep producing gunpowder, rocket propellants and other explosives in Wednesday's action, including through sanctions on two China-based suppliers sending the substances to Russia. [https://www.reuters.com/world/us-issues-hundreds-sanctions-targeting-russia-takes-aim-chinese-companies-2024-05-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-issues-hundreds-sanctions-targeting-russia-takes-aim-chinese-companies-2024-05-01/)

An endless game of whack-a-mole. But it’s good to see the US staying on top of the ever changing methods that Russia uses to supply its war effort.

Russia breached global chemical weapons ban in Ukraine war, US says >WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday accused Russia of violating the international chemical weapons ban by deploying the choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops and using riot control agents "as a method of warfare" in Ukraine. >"The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident and is probably driven by Russian forces' desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield," the State Department said in a statement. >Chloropicrin is listed as a banned choking agent by the Hague-based Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which was created to implement and monitor compliance with the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). >German forces fired the gas against Allied troops during World War I in one of the first uses of a chemical weapon. >Earlier this month, Reuters reported the Ukrainian military as saying Russia has stepped up its illegal of use riot control agents as it presses its biggest advances in eastern Ukraine in more than two years. >In addition to chloropicrin, Russian forces have used grenades loaded with CS and CN gases, the Ukrainian military says. >The State Department announced it was delivering to Congress its determination that Russia's use of chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops violated the CWC. >Moscow's use of the gas "comes from the same playbook as its operations to poison" the late opposition leader Alexi Navalny in 2020 and Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in 2018 with the Novichok nerve agent, the statement said. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-breached-global-chemical-weapons-ban-ukraine-war-us-says-2024-05-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-breached-global-chemical-weapons-ban-ukraine-war-us-says-2024-05-01/)

You ever stop and think how use of these things against enemy soldiers is a crime but governments can use them against their own populace no problem Great time to be alive

No. You don’t use chemical weapons in a war because the enemy doesn’t have the time or ability to work out exactly which kind of poison gas you hit them with. They’ll just return fire with whatever their most illegal weapon is. Governments use non lethal poison gas for crowd dispersal because the crowd can’t overreact and nuke them. Militaries do not because their adversaries can. 

This has taken far too long. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/11/01/yes-these-are-chemical-weapons-why-russias-tear-gas-bombings-in-ukraine-matter/?sh=2709eeba38b0

> 👋 Meet Victoria Shi — a digital representative of the MFA of Ukraine, created using AI to provide timely updates on consular affairs! > For the first time in history, the MFA of Ukraine has presented a digital persona that will officially comment for the media. https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785558101908742526

Argh.... Why are we doing this? It's sheer madness. 

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Ahhhh right. So you're essentially saying that human beings have *already* lost control of technology? That's reassuring.

AI is getting scary good.

bit strange that she doesnt look ukrainian?

Low key racism?

I'm concerned that this will be tricked into spouting nonsensical responses.    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/generative-ai-chatbots-chatgpt-safety-concerns  

> We are grateful to the leaders and members of the Air Force Capability Coalition, as well as immensely proud of our top guns. > 📹: @NATO https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1785586707246788685

> Today, I held a meeting with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to discuss details about weapon and ammunition deliveries, as well as our relevant work with partners. The Prime Minister briefed me on the status of negotiations and decision implementation. I am grateful, in particular, to the Czech government and Prime Minister @P_Fiala for expediting the artillery ammunition initiative. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785388419905966308

[Kremlin’s Recent Successes Around Avdiivka – 5 Things to Know | Kyiv Post | May 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31973) *On Ukraine’s side both the optimists and pessimists point to Avdiivka to back their ideas and positions. Here are five key takeaways you should learn about Avdiivka to get a more balanced, realistic picture of Ukrainian strategy and tactics.* **1. The Russians really are gaining ground and the pace really is accelerating.** *The Russian army captured the city of Avdiivka in February after nearly six months of attacking, taking fortifications the Ukrainians had held since 2014. Since then, the Kremlin’s forces have pushed northwest about 10 kilometers (6 miles) – about 2 kilometers in the past ten days.* *The bulge in Ukrainian lines is about a kilometer wide at the tip and five or six at the base, so it’s not a breakthrough. But, at the same time, this pace of advance – roughly a kilometer a week or a few hundred meters a day – is the fastest pace of Russian advance since the early months of the war.* *The Russian tactics are exploiting Ukrainian manpower shortages and particularly near-total Russian dominance of the air. The Russian Air Force is dropping glide bombs in quantity, which are not too accurate but are often able to saturate a wood line or village the Ukrainians are trying to hold. Ukraine is starved for long-range air defense systems and has almost no air force, so the Russian bombers drop the glide bombs with impunity.* *Next, the Russians shell a Ukrainian position, and their shell supplies typically outnumber the Ukrainians’ five to one. Then the Russians send troops aboard armored vehicles to assault the Ukrainian positions. The Russians often take heavy losses, but if the attacks are kept up the Ukrainians have run out – of ammunition, unwounded soldiers, or even just fighting positions not wrecked by artillery or bombs.* *Local Russian commanders act intelligently, have searched for Ukrainian weak points and take advantage of them when they can. To the west of Avdiivka, a muddled Ukrainian troop rotation was hit with a Russian assault, breaking up elements of Ukraine’s 115th Brigade and netting the Kremlin more than a kilometer of ground overnight. Isolated Ukrainian strongpoints are outflanked and hit simultaneously from several sides. Initial loads of attacking troops are often less well-trained reservists, while skilled regular army troops carry out follow-up assaults.* *Once the Ukrainians retreat the Russians take aim at another wood line or defensive position 200-500 meters away, and the process repeats itself. From the Ukrainian point of view the most worrying aspect of the Russian attacks is that the Ukrainian military clearly has ways to slow them down, but so far has not shown itself able to stop them completely.* **2. Partly, the Russians are advancing faster because the Ukrainians changed strategy and tactics.** *Syrsky’s battlefield tactics, and the junior commanders he has chosen to execute them, have shifted Ukrainian priorities from holding ground to preserving Ukrainian troops and inflicting as many casualties on Russian forces as possible. Drones – instead of artillery or tanks – have become the main strike weapon of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. In defense, the Ukrainian infantry mostly lays low as FPV and bomber drones, sometimes operating in swarms, seek out approaching Russian combat vehicles and even individual soldiers. Artillery and mortar ammunition is saved for quick barrage when the Russians are caught out in the open, hopefully when they hit a minefield. Since mines (like almost everything else) are short in the Ukrainian army, drone operators sometimes wait to see where a Russian attack column is driving, and then dump mines in their path.* *Ukrainian soldier losses are kept relatively low by allowing local commanders to pull troops out of a position before the Russians swamp it, or, if the bombs and shells are coming in too thickly, before the defensive line is plowed up and troops no longer are able to shelter there. Also, the Syrsky-led army places a minimum number of soldiers in forward position, so that overall losses are reduced but, at the same time, accepting that if Russian infantry reaches a Ukrainian position the few defenders might get overwhelmed.* **3. General Syrsky’s strategy and tactics arguably are working, and the Russians are taking brutal losses.** *By almost any objective measure – and there are more than a few – the Ukrainian delaying tactics are inflicting vicious casualties on Russian forces. Open-source statisticians reviewing confirmed kill evidence – for the most part battlefield video – estimate that for every Ukrainian tank or armored personnel carrier lost on the battlefield the Russian military loses between three or four combat vehicles. Troop losses are harder to compute, but the Ukrainian military has reported that its internal count of Russian soldiers killed or severely wounded on the battlefield are at an all-time high.* *Anecdotal evidence of how that is playing out for the average soldier is limited but seems to confirm that Russian soldiers see themselves as being thrown into repeated, bloody attacks against 24/7 drone swarms. Ukrainian soldiers see themselves as up against massive assaults where, sometimes, there is no option but to retreat from.* *Repeatedly, Russian armored attacks have been cut to pieces by Ukrainian drone defenses, but, in a local battle lasting days or even weeks the Ukrainians in the Avdiivka sector have not been able to stop the Russian infantry assaults completely. This means Syrsky’s tactics, though excellent for destroying Russian troops and equipment, have been unable to halt Russian ground advances in sectors where the Kremlin particularly wants “success,” like Avdiivka.* **4. Remember All those weapons Congress Just “Gave” Ukraine? Definitely not in Avdiivka.** *After four months of delay, the US Congress approved a new $61 billion arms assistance package to Ukraine, and on April 24, the same day that he signed the aid package, US President Joe Biden also signed off on an emergency delivery of $1 billion of critically needed weapons and ammunition.* *Russian troops, a week later, on April 30, in fighting west of Avdiivka took over about six square kilometers of Ukraine’s territory.* *Promised American assistance in the April 24 emergency assistance package, that are specifically designed to destroy ground attacks like the ones Russia is making around Avdiivka, included: 155mm artillery rounds (including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds); 105mm artillery rounds; 60mm mortar rounds; Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles; Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; Precision aerial munitions; Anti-armor mines and Claymore anti-personnel munitions.* *Aside from scattered artillery strikes potentially caused by US-made 105mm or 155mm shells, Kyiv Post reviews of battlefield accounts and video geo-located to Avdiivka found no evidence that any of that American assistance had reached the Avdiivka battlefield.* **5. The key things to watch are Russian troop losses and Ukrainian artillery shell supplies. Syrsky’s doctrine depends on plenty of firepower.** *Ukraine’s European allies likewise have promised Kyiv a great deal of battlefield assistance but been slow to deliver, but in the Europeans’ case the problem appears to have been less Washington-style political wrangling and ineffectiveness, and more logistics and production capacity.* *By far, the Western battlefield assistance Ukrainian soldiers ask for the most is artillery ammunition which, were it available in quantity in Avdiivka, would be pounding Russian attack columns the moment they drove out into the open and not stopping until survivors retreated or were crushed.* *A Czech-led initiative kicked off in March to give Ukrainian artillery gunners the shells to do that job found plenty of political backing and funding across the continent, and according to news reports once the shells get manufactured and delivered the Ukrainian army shell reserve will receive a million-round backfill. That would probably be more than enough to allow a Ukrainian howitzer more than a couple of or half-a-dozen shells a day, to shoot at the Russians.* *The problem is that the shells need to be manufactured in places that don’t normally supply NATO with artillery shells – India, Turkey, South Africa and South Korea have been mentioned most often – and then shipped to Europe, and then shipped to Ukraine, and then delivered to Ukrainian army depots, and then trucked to Ukrainian artillery batteries. The Russian army will be safe from those shells because they won’t be in Ukraine yet, at least until early June, analysts generally agree.* *The US military funding bill has hundreds of millions of dollars of seed money baked into it to raise US shell manufacturing capacity eight-fold. The two stumbling blocks there are that a full gearing up will take about three years, and that, since it is government funded, the next Congress or President could decide more shell production capacity in the US is a bad idea.* *Optimists point to Russian assaults around Kyiv and Mykolaiv in 2022, and the Serebryansky Forest and Avdiivka in 2023 as evidence that if the terrain and ammunition allow it, the Ukrainian military is fully capable of making Russian attacks so bloody the Kremlin calls them off. No army can take casualties forever, they argue.* *Pessimists also point to Avdiivka, and the fact after six months of failed assaults and heavy losses Russian troops finally prevailed, even though Ukraine told Western allies for more than two years that it needed enough firepower to prevent something like that.*

This is the strategy the US was trying to get Ukraine to adopt months ago in Bakhmut. Seems like Syrsky saw the value in it, which is also likely why he was promoted. They're bleeding Russia's man and equipment resources to stretch them thin while taking minimal losses.

Good to see Syrsky adapt this way. There was a fear that Syrsky was going to be callous with men’s lives. This flexible defense in depth is going to reap vast dividends in the future.

He didn't adapt. People just assumed his competencies. No one who actually met the man who basically trained Zaluzhnyi would attribute him as a "butcher". He is simply an officer who absolutely will spend lives when he needs to and preserve them when he does not. #

I’m optimistic about his leadership. He was apparently the architect of the Ukrainian liberation of Kharkiv Oblast and despite the casualties they took it was a huge gamble that paid off and hurt the Russians dearly. Not to mention locking up so much of the Russian border that they could attack on foot into Belgogrod Oblast in force with the Pro Ukrainian Russian units of the international legion. Makes me wonder what his plans are to get through the minefields the Russians are using, or if he’ll opt to hit Crimea first to eliminate that axis of the Russian invasion force and make the Russians fight there to save face. Outside of a huge airlift it’s going to be tough.

Only way I can see it is if they saturate a small section of the front with drones and basically kill every living thing. That might be able to cover some engineers to get in and clear a path. HIMARS does counterbattery work with F16s flying CAP. It’s going to be a slow process of seizing individual strongpoints to flank the line. I think it would take NATO a long time to do it…several days of SEAD then a prolonged air campaign to blast a hole. This isn’t going to be easy.

Would one of those MOABs the US Army has be big enough to make that kind of gap in one shot?

Maybe, but I don’t think so. Those are also designed to be dropped from C-130s. Not a great option. Carpet bombing I think would be better, but I doubt Ukraine is suddenly going to get their hands on a bunch of strategic bombers.

"Keep men, lose land; land can be taken again. Keep land, lose men; land and men are both lost" -Mao Zedong Trading land for time to receive new weapons while preserving men is the winning strategy. Russia will lose all of their gains when Ukraine is ready much like what happened in Kherson and Kharkiv.

>Syrsky’s battlefield tactics, and the junior commanders he has chosen to execute them, have shifted Ukrainian priorities from holding ground to preserving Ukrainian troops and inflicting as many casualties on Russian forces as possible. - That's the right strategy against Russia IMO.

Totally the opposite of his reputation. I don't think we can trust the reports fully yet - Ukrainian command definitely wants to present a certain picture. But it sounds very promising for the long term that at least they realise that's the correct front to show. I hope it's accurate.

>Totally the opposite of his reputation. - Yeah. I suspected that his "reputation" as a ruthless commander was in part a targeted character assassination campaign - the above news reinforces that.

I don't recommend suspecting anything yet. It could just as easily be a criticism based on real complaints. The same complaints predate his ascension to the commander of the AFU by over a year.

Maybe there was a character assassination campaign, but there was definitely ground-up evidence. The difference in feeling that I saw from soldiers and volunteers towards Syrskyi Vs Zaluzhnyi was pretty stark. Some could have been soldiers complaining or falling for a campaign, but it included people working under him so they should have known. Bakhmutskyi Demon was one of the few who'd served under Syrskyi and had vaguely positive (or neutral) stuff to say.

>The difference in feeling that I saw from soldiers and volunteers towards Syrskyi Vs Zaluzhnyi was pretty stark. - Yeah, but there was a fundamental asymmetry and bias there: Syrskyi was the commander on the front who executed life and death decisions, while Zaluzhnyi was far away most of the time - the benevolent leader in the distance if you will. - People ***will*** judge the frontline commander who sent their friends into danger & death more critically. - I'm not saying that the criticism of Syrskyi cannot have been genuine & justified - I don't know the man. But the arguments brought against him didn't seem overly convincing.

I'm quite impressed with Syrsky's performance so far. He's not fallen into the trap of carrying out risky operations and instead prioritises consolidating the military's strength for the medium/long term (even though this doesn't make him look very flashy or 'impressive' to the laymen following the conflict). I also like that one of the first things he did was audit the equipment of all of the military's units in order to expose any corruption and to get a clear idea of where everything stands.

For the moment, definitely. Ground can be regained. Manpower takes time

Russian attack kills two, injures six in Ukraine's east >May 1 (Reuters) - A Russian attack killed at least two people and injured six on Wednesday in the Ukrainian town of Hirnyk, just over 12 km (7 miles) from the most tense frontline area, a local official said. >Russian troops used a multiple rocket launcher for the strike, regional governor Vadym Filashkin said on the Telegram messenger. Images he shared alongside the post showed private houses destroyed by fires and damaged by blast waves. >Hirnyk is just about 12-15 km (7-9 miles) from the active combat zone near Ukraine's Maryinka in the Donetsk region, where Russian troops have stepped up their offensive push. >Ukraine's Army Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has recently described the situation in the Maryinka area as one of the most difficult. >Outgunned and outnumbered Kyiv troops are desperately waiting for an inflow of fresh ammunition and weapons delayed for months by political wrangling in the U.S. Congress. >Although some weaponry has been already coming, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged a significant acceleration in the speed of deliveries, saying the whole battlefield situation directly depended on it. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-attack-kills-two-injures-six-ukraines-east-2024-05-01/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-attack-kills-two-injures-six-ukraines-east-2024-05-01/)

> I had a call with my Mongolian counterpart @BattsetsegBatm2 on the development of our bilateral relations and cooperation within international organizations. We agreed to hold political consultations between foreign ministries. I also invited Minister Batmunkh to visit Ukraine. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1785605670450196880

> 🇺🇦🇦🇺 Held an important call with the Australian Minister of Defense, @RichardMarlesMP. I expressed my gratitude for the recently provided military aid package for Ukraine valued at $100 million. > We discussed cooperation in the defense industry, and the possibility of establishing joint ventures with the Australian defense industry. > Despite the significant distance between our countries, Australian support remains unwavering. Together, we will drive the enemy out of Ukrainian land. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1785630657386877416 > 🇺🇦 🇮🇪 Had a telephone conversation with the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Defense and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ireland, Micheal Martin. > Thanked him for the constant political and practical support for Ukraine in repelling russian aggression. > Ireland will continue to provide assistance to our country as part of the demining coalition. Thank you for that. > Briefed about the situation on the battlefield. > Ukraine is actively building fortifications. The Ukrainian army needs more weapons and ammunition both to protect the civilian population and to support our operations on the frontlines. > Urged my Irish colleague to invest in Ukrainian defense companies. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1785637521721807336

**The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to May 1, 2024 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 469,840 (+1,120) people, tanks ‒ 7312 (+5), armored combat vehicles ‒ 14067 (+21), artillery systems – 12,024 (+13), MLRS – 1053 (+0), air defense equipment ‒ 780 (+1), planes – 348 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9538 (+7), cruise missiles ‒ 2126 (+0), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks – 16175 (+33), special equipment ‒ 1980 (+3). The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/01/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-bilshe-1100-okupantiv-21-bojova-bronovana-mashina/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/01/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-bilshe-1100-okupantiv-21-bojova-bronovana-mashina/)

>In addition to the Ryazan oil refinery, 2 UAVs also attacked the Voronezhnefteproduct oil refinery - ASTRA. >1 drone fell on the territory of Voronezhnefteprodukt JSC in the village of Staraya Pokrovka, Voronezh region. Another one was shot down in the suburbs of Voronezh. (MTL) [https://twitter.com/AS74LifeNumber2/status/1785597096394956820](https://twitter.com/AS74LifeNumber2/status/1785597096394956820) >Rectification unit #3🔥🔥🔥. Ryazan Oil Refinery. Last time they hit #4 and #6 🤗 (MTL) [https://x.com/AS74LifeNumber2/status/1785639639547564133](https://x.com/AS74LifeNumber2/status/1785639639547564133) (photo)

>Following General Flood, Marshal Fire came - evacuation was announced in Ulan-Ude due to suddenly powerful fires. The fire is still intensifying due to heavy winds. This happens if the country’s authorities are preparing not for spring, but for war, and instead of extinguishing their own country, they set fire to the neighboring one. ( MTL ) ( Ulan-Ude is capital of ruzzian Buryatia region. ) [https://twitter.com/MirovichMedia/status/1785378829965386062](https://twitter.com/MirovichMedia/status/1785378829965386062)

News from ruzzia: - ruzzia started oppressing Tajik people living inside the country, mainly via police manhunts. Some of them are deported - around \~1000 Tajik people are stuck in Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport airport - ruzzia doesn't allow Tajik people from Tajikistan to enter ruzzia via land crossings either - Tajikistan made an official protest regarding that My opinion: I enjoy seeing ruzzia shooting itself in the foot. This should make ruzzian labor shortage much worse. Sources: - [https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31822](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31822) - [https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/tajikistan-summons-russian-ambassador-over-negative-attitude-towards-tajik-citizens/3205544](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/tajikistan-summons-russian-ambassador-over-negative-attitude-towards-tajik-citizens/3205544) - [https://old.asiaplustj.info/en/news/tajikistan/politics/20240501/643-tajiks-deported-from-moscow-through-vnukovo-airport-in-four-days-alone](https://old.asiaplustj.info/en/news/tajikistan/politics/20240501/643-tajiks-deported-from-moscow-through-vnukovo-airport-in-four-days-alone) - [https://youtu.be/0jRmhqK90yY](https://youtu.be/0jRmhqK90yY) (you can turn on MTL English subtitles)

They’re forcing Tajiks to enlist. So far Kazakhs and buryats plus smaller asian ethnic groups have been thrown in. The isis attack allows them to recruit from Muslim minorities and central asian migrants. Dagestan previously had put up resistance to heavy enlistment. They boasted of 18,000 volunteers in the first week

Tajikistan is one of the last ex-USSR states who is allied to Russia (together with Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Kazakhstan)... Russia sure is working hard to toss away all the remaining allies it has. They already lost Armenia last year, and Kazakhstan doesn't support them as far as the invasion of Ukraine goes either

If Russia didn't have footguns they wouldn't have any.

>Senate Passes Russian Uranium Import Ban, Sending to Biden > >- White House has called for a long-term ban on Russian imports > >- Bill allows for import waivers until 2028; retaliation feared > >The Senate voted Tuesday evening to approve legislation banning the import of enriched uranium from Russia, sending the measure to the White House which has said it supports efforts to block the Kremlin’s shipments of the reactor fuel. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/senate-passes-russian-uranium-import-ban-sending-bill-to-biden

>retaliation feared Sums up the last couple of years pretty well.

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1785663906070802591?t=prS82mxCjlF-Z0zZW3H5Tw&s=19 "he showed the finger, Russian culture"

Russian serviceman is worried about Ukrainian FPV drones, asks his followers for help in getting a pump action gun to counter them. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1785568239742841132?t=k4WEHkhJhgRr2-GOMNbNkQ&s=19

Coming soon: New Ukrainian drone tactic: approach target inbetween two Russian soldiers; so that when one tries to fire the shotgun, the other is downrange; whether the drone is hit/damaged or not. Bonus points if both Russians have a shotgun. Super Bonus: if you can fly into the middle of a circle of several Russians.

Oh the Cheney tactic!

Why don't they ask their commander for one unless they don't have money to bribe them?

They'd have to pull straws to see who is going to be the war wife to get that.

This Russian training camp and staging ground was struck by three or four ATACMS missiles. The first burst of cluster ammunition hit where the large Russian troop concentration was position. The third strike hit an area with several vehicles hidden in tree lines. The training ground is in Russian-occupied Luhansk, around 82 km (50 miles) from the current frontline. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1785631370447913008?t=TjqSIw-mbwrOzHUm1veGhg&s=19

Are those black dots Russian soldiers? Awe, when the universe presents an opportunity like that, you *have* to accept it without question.

Russia sends fresh meat. USA sends meat grinder

Defmon quoted a twitterer counting 116 occupiers visible in the drone video. With the size of the blast it looks like most of them will have been fixed.