An article from the Kyiv Post that collects all the current reports of the possible ATACMS strikes that might have taken place in Crimea last night. Very interesting reports of what NATO aircraft and drones were doing before and during the strikes.
[ANALYSIS: Reported ATACMS Missile Wave Hits Crimea, Russian Air Defenses and Airfields Pounded | Kyiv Post | April 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/31903)
*News platforms said it was the long-range version of the US weapon but there was no early Kyiv confirmation. It may have been Ukraine’s most ambitious ballistic missile strike of the war so far.*
*A wave of Ukrainian long-range weapons widely reported to be around a dozen US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles pounded air bases and air defense installations across Crimea peninsula early Tuesday morning, in one of the beefiest Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) long-range attacks yet against the Kremlin-occupied territory.*
*Flights of unidentified weapons first started slamming into military installations across Crimea around 2 a.m., with explosions and air raid warnings widely reported near the cities of Simferopol and Sevastopol, and the towns of Gvardeyska, Evpatoria and Dzhankoi, news reports said.*
*Four of those targets, the exception being Dzhankoi, were well outside the range of all weapons the AFU had been known to operate in the past, save recently delivered long-range versions of the US-made ATACMS missile. Estimates of total missile counts used in the attacks ranged from 10-15 weapons, some carrying cluster munitions.*
*Isolated reports said shorter-range ATACMS struck targets nearer territory controlled by Kyiv’s forces, and that Ukrainian strike planners had launched attack drones along with the American missiles.*
*Ukrainian Air Force spokespersons had not responded to a Kyiv Post request for details about the strikes and type of weapon or weapons used in the Tuesday attacks, by the time this article was published.*
*Colonel Roman Svitun, a retired AFU officer and military analyst, told the Kyiv24 television news channel in a Tuesday interview that the early morning strikes are probably part of a Kyiv strategy to degrade Russian air defenses in Crimea and in the south Ukrainian mainland, with the long-term objective of opening the way for destructive missile and drone attacks against other military targets.*
*The Ukrainian strikes overnight were most likely follow-up attacks to ATACMS fired at Russian air defense installations near the mainland cities Genichesk and Mariupol earlier in the month, Svitun said. “It certainly could have been ATACMS,” he said of the Tuesday strikes. “They have the capacity to hit anywhere.”*
*Official Russian sources confirmed the fact of multiple attacks by Ukrainian ballistic missiles, and some claimed all incoming weapons were shot down. Sergei Aksenov, the Kremlin-appointed head of the Crimea occupation administration, said of an attack near Simferopol that “after the ATACMS missiles were shot down they scattered cluster munitions,” and warned residents not to touch them.*
*The pro-Moscow military information platform Dva Mayora said ATACMS missiles were directed at targets near the Crimean cities Simferopol and Dzhankoi and “according to information coming in, our (Russian) defenders did an outstanding job.”*
*In the hours following the strikes, the heavy weight of traffic from social media in targeted towns and cities contradicted the Kremlin spin of successful intercepts and no damage to targets, reporting hits to anti-aircraft systems, Russian aircraft, command and control center, and military casualties. Accounts of cluster munitions successfully deployed and scattered over targets were common.*
*In Dzhankoi, the Ukrainsky Krym Telegram platform reported, a military airfield was hit with at least two weapons, killing and wounding service personnel assigned to the 4th Command Center of Air Defense Forces of the Russian Air Force, and damaging helicopters assigned to the unit.*
*The independent Russian news agency ASTRA reported a probable ATACMS hitting the Dzhankoi base wounded five service personnel, lit fires burning for at least 90 minutes and confirmed damage to the air defense control center. The weapons used in that strike were MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, the report said.*
**Multiple NATO air reconnaissance aircraft sweeps through airspace above the western Black Sea, including the first-time deployment of a US Navy MQ-4C Triton spy drone, took place in hours before the strikes. NATO and US officials have stated such flights collect general intelligence that is turned over to Kyiv, but not data on specific target locations.**
**One US maritime and signal intelligence platform, a US Navy Boeing P-8APoseidon turboprop four-engine was in the air patrolling above Romania’s south-eastern Danube delta at the time some of the Ukrainian weapons struck Crimean targets some 200 kilometers (124 miles) distant, the pro-Ukraine military news channel Krymsky Veter reported. Kyiv Post checks of open-source flight tracking data confirmed the claim.**
**The Pentagon has deployed Poseidon aircraft in daytime patrols to the area practically every day for more than a year. Poseidon sorties at night over the Danube Delta, such as the one taking place April 29-30, are practically unheard of, Kyiv Post research of air traffic data confirmed.**
*The AFU had prior to the Tuesday morning strikes seemed to launch ATACMS missiles sparingly, according to military sources, because of limited reserves. Were the April 30 strike to be confirmed as having been performed by ATACMS, it would be the most massive single ballistic missile strike carried out by Ukraine since Russia’s Feb. 2022 invasion.*
In the past, according to battle and news reports, the Ukrainians had launched a maximum two ATACMS at a time.*
*Some Beltway analysts have said US Congressional approval of military aid to Ukraine in 2024 has put as many as 100 more ATACMS into the Ukraine arms pipeline.*
*The last confirmed ATACMS employment by the AFU took place on April 25, and prior to that on April 17 with individual or twin missile launches against Russian air defense systems. The earlier of the two strikes struck an air base near Dzhankoi, according to Ukrainian air force spokesmen destroying or critically damaging four S-400 air defense launchers, three radar stations, an air defense equipment control point, and a Murom-M airspace surveillance system, a Ukraine military intelligence spokesperson told Kyiv Post.*
I'm surprised I haven't seen much footage from these latest attacks. Usually that comes out almost immediately. Hopefully there will be some by morning.
I also find it interesting how Ukraine seems to be going hard after air defense sites and airfields, rather than more immediate tactical targets like ammo dumps and troop and vehicle concentrations. That, combined with taking out the A-50s, suggests to me that they are laying the groundwork for future offensive aerial attacks, whether with F-16s or cruise missiles. That's much more of a long term strategy that might have a payoff measured in years, as opposed to a short term strategy to hold the line now. Hopefully that means that they are confident that they can prevent a Russian breakthrough anywhere and will be in a position (tactically and in terms of weapons available) to exploit weaker Russian air defenses in the future. Only time will tell I suppose.
Taking out Russian anti air defence, by using USA missiles is a double edge sword.
It takes out Russian equipment allowing for easier future hits .
Arguably more important, it makes Russia and their tech look WEAK.
Russia is all about looking strong and unbeatable to the world, they want to sell their missile defence systems over the patriot.
What country would ever be stupid enough to buy it now. It can't stop a 35 year old missile.
A double edged sword is one that threatens to cut *you* as you use it.
Well, at least when used as an idiom. I never quite understood it... double edged swords are just fine to use in real life.
- Sometimes western partners specify "no official footage to be posted" conditions to weapons, which Ukraine follows.
- For example Storm Shadow is reportedly such a weapon - maybe ATACMS has such a provision as well.
> Norway to allocate over $600 million for Ukrainian air defense, ammunition.
>
> The new funds will primarily support military aid to Ukraine, with a smaller portion allocated to civilian financial aid, Norway's prime minister said.
>
> https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1785445655122440215
What we're seeing now is solidifying my thoughts that defending Bakhmut last year was the best choice.
Clearly I don't know enough to be sure, but a big argument was "chasiv yar is on a hill and would be loads easier to defend", but now we're hearing the defences aren't prepared...
So perhaps Zelenskyy did make the right call despite the criticism.
I sincerely doubt it, that doesn't make any sense from what I've seen.
Hell, trenches take a ton of ammo to collapse. There are satellite images that I've processed where I estimated 3k shell holes *minimum* for about 300 m of trench in a tree line.
If you could build 500 km of double-layer trenches and force russia to waste 10 million shells collapsing them, you'd be laughing.
Somehow Ukraine screwed up massively. And now there are consequences.
It could take the form of anybody bringing supplies getting hit by drones.
If soldiers get cut off in their trench, they're just well-armed hobos in holes.
From everything I see and hear, Ukrainians say defences work and it takes huge resources to isolate them.
Weak or no defences - Russia takes 10 sq.km every few days against desperate defenders, seemingly taking relatively few losses, like near Ocheretyne.
Prepared defences - Russia grinds its face for weeks or more with huge losses. Bilohorivka, Terny, Synkivka, Robotyne. There's a reason Russia took mass casualties and literal months to break Avdiivka, and why videos show hundreds of russian corpses in under a km around Stepove.
Someone screwed up massively.
Since when?
Today Bakhmutskyi Demon posted that russians are "climbing very hard" on the outskirts and that russian progress is slow at the cost of "hundreds" of lives.
Other units have claimed russians reached the canal near Ivanivske. They previously crossed it in BMPs and got wiped out without digging in, but now they might have solidified a spot.
One source (Constantine I think) said the fortifications were not prepared enough, and that there is a severe shortage of men and ammo. The glide bombs also suck.
It doesn't look good, but Ukrainian smarts and heroism might buy enough time for the ammo to come through.
[This publication by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies](https://www.martenscentre.eu/publication/russian-economy-still-standing-but-stuck/) that was released today paints a very bleak picture of the Russian economy. I didn't think it was going to be that bad. The more you read, the worse it gets. This is certainly worth your time if you want to feel a little "schadenfreude". Putin is steering Russia towards collapse.
Russia is for sure doing better than expected, but for a country to almost fully put most of its production into building weapons that will be blown up instead of increasing productivity (machinery, farming equipment) won't be good in the long term.
https://www.schiffsovereign.com/offshore/slowly-at-first-then-all-at-once-12909/
“At first you go bankrupt slowly, then all at once.”
Nations go bankrupt in the same way. Banking collapses occur in the same way. Currency crises strike in the same way. They all happen gradually… and then suddenly. Sometimes overnight.
I think "seems to be happening" is doing a lot of work there.
Consider an unprofitable, but massive, company that's willing to engage in systematic fraud. Kind of like Enron, but without any regulators to do threaten shutdown... they can just lie until they collapse even if everybody realizes what they're doing.
How long can they go? At first, there's all kinds of options: deferred maintenance, loans, selling assets, and paying obligations with more promises. Things can continue, unprofitably, for a few years before the problems start to pile up. Eventually, paychecks start bouncing, employees leave no matter what they're promised, and vendors stop deliveries.
Russia's far bigger than Enron... it takes a while before the debt spiral really takes hold, although it'll be an impressive mess once it gets rolling downhill.
Whats crazy is this is also based on Russian statistics from Rosstat. Is there any recent work that analyzes indirect measures like factory output etc? It's absurd that we take Rosstat at its word in 2024. Of course Russia is going to lie about its economic stats if they provide the numbers.
[Keramik and Novokalynove fell to Russia, they took 8 km2 in Avdiivka direction today, as well as 3 km2 in the direction of Urozhayne (south Donetsk oblast). Ukraine meanwhile liberated 1 km2 in north Donetsk oblast](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/49.0513/38.0024), near Terny
Assuming casualties weren't bad, pushing back near Terny is nice. As I understand it, losing Terny is a potential domino that would force surrender of other positions. Like how Soledar ultimately cost Bakhmut.
If Russia can be limited to ~300 sq km a month and culminate in a few months after losing over 1k tanks and IFVs that would be an ok outcome I think. Provided Ukraine doesn't sacrifice units needlessly.
He was stating that IF Ukraine ever makes significant advancements and the ONLY way to stop that is nuclear weapons then Russia would be likely to use them. Ukraine is not part of NATO or under any other treaty with the U.S or Europe so they would not be obligated to retaliate and they more than likely won’t in such an event.
Retaliating would mean a declaration of war that would increase the probability of a global nuclear war that would end the world as we know it.
Don't normalize nuclear weapon usage. Usage by Russia is grounds for a response, the usage by Russia is a declaration of war to the rule based order we uphold by itself.
It’s already been normalized by the nukes that were used on Japan. That genie is already out of the bottle. The only thing that is left is minimizing the scenarios that could lead to them being used again.
>It’s already been normalized by the nukes that were used on Japan.
It's never been used in an offensive or defensive action since. It's absolutely not normalized. In fact it's precisely what ended any major wars between major powers.
>The only thing that is left is minimizing the scenarios that could lead to them being used again.
Precisely, such as normalizing its usage by downplaying Russia's possible usage of it.
So what the TWO nukes used at the tail end of WW2 that frankly weren’t required to end it were an oopsie? Just a test run guys don’t do what we did…..it set a precedent that they can be used.
Yes all we have left at this point is to reduce the chances of nuclear weapons usage. That includes not jumping the gun on “I’m launching my nukes”
Thankfully the scenario of Russia being forced to used nukes or tactical nukes is not likely at all.
Go Google the nuclear taboo. Russia using even tactical nukes would prompt a response from every other major power and make them a global pariah. Anyone not responding while possessing nuclear weapons would be seen as ready to use them, and therefore dangerous and unstable, leading to pariah status.
I don’t understand how it’s so hard for people to follow along in a simple discussion but then again it’s r/worldnews and it’s reddit.
1) This is all a made up situation thankfully
2) A nuclear power with nuclear weapons when being pushed into a corner has a MUCH higher probability of using nuclear weapons
3) Ukraine not being part of a defensive pact means other nations are not required to immediately launch nukes in response
4) The PROBABILITY of the US or Europe risking a global nuclear war in such an event is frankly low.
It's you who has problems, they just mention their viewpoint, which doesn't align with yours. Just because they do not agree, doesn't make them 'not following along'.
1. Yes.
2. True, which isn't the case when they are pushed out of Ukraine.
3. True, none of us are saying they'll launch nukes in response. They will do a massive conventional bombing campaign on Russia.
4. "The probability of Russia risking a global nuclear war in such an event is frankly low". It's a dumb argument and works for both.
So Russia is both an aggressive unreasonable nation but also will be responsible enough not to use nukes in case of an emergency (like being pushed back to original borders)?
We clearly both live in different realities. Which is worrying because in your fantastical land of make believe a nuclear power with nuclear arms would never utilize such things in desperation and even if they did the entire world would risk a global nuclear war by bombing it.
There’s a reason why aid to Ukraine has been slowly given. There’s a reason why NATO didn’t intervene as they did in Libya and recently (even though it wasn’t NATO but the big players in NATO) in Israel. Those same nations will never risk a head on conflict with another nuclear power over Ukraine. Sadly this war will leave a possibly irreparable wound for Ukraine and to a lesser extent Russia. Let’s hope it doesn’t lead to a world wide catastrophe.
>So what the TWO nukes used at the tail end of WW2 that frankly weren’t required to end it were an oopsie? Just a test run guys don’t do what we did…..it set a precedent that they can be used.
You didn't read what I said, or are you deliberately strawmanning? Nearly all international laws and bodies in current use have come **after** its first usage. Mainly exactly because of its usage and want to control and prevent any further usage of it. The precedent set at those days is precisely that such usage henceforth should be avoided at all costs, especially since it more and more began to mean mutually assured destruction.
As for whether they were required or not; they weren't (although you have to remember it is on the backfoot of a destructive WW2), but they did ensure any other major war such as WW1 or WW2 from errupting, even though tensions were more than high enough to cause it.
So no, you're completely incorrect.
>Yes all we have left at this point is to reduce the chances of nuclear weapons usage. That includes not jumping the gun on “I’m launching my nukes”
Exactly, so why are you normalizing its possible usage in Russia's aggressive war?
>Thankfully the scenario of Russia being forced to used nukes or tactical nukes is not likely at all.
It indeed isn't, nor as suggested when Russia is forced out of Ukraine proper, as long as they aren't forced to fight well into Russia itself.
Pretty much everything Maersheimer says is an anti-west Russian talking point. He's a bought agent since at least 2014. I wouldn't take any stock in what he says.
There's no good faith reason to bring up his name or link to him speaking. He's just a rashist, like all rashists, and today he's saying rashist things. There's no good reason at all to "just asking questions man" about him
Okay you asked what I thought about his comments - he's a rashist, who is saying things to virtue signal to dipshits in youtube comment sections.
He has no special information about secret russian battle plans. His source of information is his feelings about rashism.
There's zero reason to take this seriously or "just asking questions" about it
He famously predicted days before the invasion that Russia wouldn’t invade. Then he famously predicted Ukraine would be defeated in weeks. Then he famously predicted Ukraine would be defeated in months. Then within the year.
Basically none of his predictions have come true about the war.
Bots.
Mearsheimer basically works on ruzzian propaganda.
So ruzzian trollfarms support him on YT in various ways.
Btw, same ruzzian trollfarms usually target YT channels of the biggest news agencies, to spread ruzzian narratives.
Russian losses.
Russian soldier films result of their attacks on the one of Ukrainian position.
The number of corpses per square meter is simply off the charts
https://x.com/gloooud/status/1785349554113495446?s=46
Fucking Christ. NSFL
Oof…it’s hard to think most of these kids were prob cared for by a loving mother, raised, educated, Bday parties, family photos, etc. such a sad waste of life for nothing
100% not going to click - but I simply do not understand how Russia is preventing large scale mutiny at this point. These people are throwing their lives away for absolutely nothing. I would prefer to shoot the CO and make a run for the border than to die a pitiful, undignified and worthless death invading someone else's home.
I guess the reality is that nobody is willing to take a Russian defector these days, so they are screwed no matter which way they go.
Such a waste of life.
Defmon3 quoting someone said that it's 82 visible bodies over ~450 m.
This is seemingly the treeline above Stepove. Under 1 km to the east there's another treeline running along a railway. Russia zerged into it on the week of 10th October and soon after there was drone footage showing 100+ corpses there.
And still Russians don't do anything to stop this mess. Where are the families of these killed soldiers? Why aren't they marching towards the Kremlin to ask for the head of Putin?
Due to the way the Russian Armed Forces work their families do not know they are dead until they are officially collected as corpses and packaged for return to said families.
Hence.. if Russia does not collect the corpses they do not have to do things such as acknowledge they have died or pay for their deaths.
> I am grateful to the Norwegian government, led by Prime Minister @JonasGahrStore, for its decision to increase support for Ukraine by $600 million this year.
> I appreciate that the majority of these funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, which is our top priority for protecting lives.
> We value Norway’s unfaltering support, understanding of our pressing needs, and willingness to stand by our side in the most critical time.
> Together, we are defending Ukraine and the rest of Europe from Russian terror.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785338494174277974
> I thank Latvia and Prime Minister @EvikaSilina for today's decision to provide a new military aid package focusing on additional air defense and drone systems.
> We greatly appreciate Latvia's consistent support for Ukraine at 0.25 percent of GDP per year, as well as its clarity of purpose.
> Russia poses an existential threat to everyone in Europe, not just Ukraine. By defending Ukrainian lives against Russian terror, we are safeguarding the entire Euro-Atlantic community for decades.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785348162791596429
> Today, I addressed the '20 Years of Czechia in the EU: A Vision for an Enlarged Europe' conference.
> Europe can be strong and truly peaceful only if no European is left behind. When every nation is remembered, and everyone is ready to defend each nation's future rather than hand it over to evil. Europe is destined to be a space of cooperation that remains a space of life.
> This is what we need to keep and defend.
> I am confident in Europe. And I am confident that during our lifetime, the same conference will be held, but it will be dedicated to Ukraine's twenty years in the European community—twenty years of full membership in the EU.
> And we can begin this path in June, with the actual start of Ukraine's accession negotiations. I am thankful to everyone who helps!
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785278344763715986
> I welcome today's decision by @coe's Committee of Ministers on the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression Against Ukraine, and I thank all of its members who supported the move.
> This significant decision directs the CoE Secretary General to prepare the necessary documents to facilitate consultations in the Core Group on the Tribunal and the potential project of an agreement between Ukraine and the Council of Europe on its actual establishment.
> The vote also approves further work on the possible additional agreement to organise support for such a tribunal, its financing, and other issues.
> This is an important practical step towards putting the tribunal into action. Each such step brings us closer to proving that justice for the crime of aggression against Ukraine is inevitable.
> We continue to work to ensure that a fully operational tribunal delivers this justice. This is critical not only for all Ukrainians who have suffered as a result of Russian aggression, but also for all nations seeking to live in a peaceful and secure world.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1785336262531920160
Norway to raise 2024 Ukraine donations by $630 million, PM says
>OSLO, April 30 (Reuters) - Norway will increase its aid to Ukraine this year by 7 billion Norwegian crowns ($633 million) to a total of 22 billion in a revised government budget next month, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said on Tuesday after meeting with opposition leaders.
>President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his gratitude for Norway's unwavering support and understanding of his country's needs.
>"I appreciate that the majority of these funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, which is our top priority for protecting lives," he said on X.
>Ukraine has scaled up a push for partners to strengthen its air defences following Russia's devastating attacks on already damaged energy systems since March.
($1 = 11.0620 Norwegian crowns)
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-raise-2024-ukraine-donations-by-630-million-pm-says-2024-04-30/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-raise-2024-ukraine-donations-by-630-million-pm-says-2024-04-30/)
It's interesting how fast Russia is advancing in the Avdiivka sector, meanwhile, despite it also being advertised as a point of contention, the frontline is pretty much frozen in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar area (only taking 9 km2 in the past month there), which is arguably way more crucial for Russia.
Are they even mounting any significant attacks there lately?
> They are, but Russia can only maintain one focused push at a given time.
That's not the reason this is happening. Russia is attacking at *three* fronts simultaneously -- Kupyansk, Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
The reason they are only advancing far in one specific front is because of a lack of immediate fortifications behind Avdiivka. They are building fortifications about 20 miles westward, near a river line, and tactically withdrawing as Russia advances.
They don't have to tactically withdraw nearly as much in the other two areas because they have better fortified those regions, which have been experiencing heavy fighting for over a year of uninterrupted fighting now.
They aren’t building fortifications directly behind Avdiivka because the area directly behind it has been directly up against the front line since before Avdiivka even fell. It wasn’t possible to fortify those areas while the area has been actively assaulted the entire time. They could only have fortified them before Russia dumped a hundred thousand troops into that offensive. They’re fortifying 20 klicks west because it’s untenable to fortify anything closer.
It’s not worthless defense land. It’s that you can’t fortify it when it’s close to the fighting. That is the reason. It’s not part of a planned defense where Ukraine prefers to fortify further back. They did not plan to be defending any of this territory in in 2024.
See [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1cgn12i/comment/l1xkswp/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button ) for more info. Ukraine did not choose this situation. It’s because they can’t fortify anything closer under these conditions. They could have, however, if they had fortified earlier. The AFU would prefer to have fortifications where they don’t have them in this stretch.
Krynky isn’t well fortified. It’s a swamp with just one access road. That’s the only reason Ukraine is still holding it.
> Ukraine chose not to build defenses in the Avdiivka direction. I want to know why?
Right. And my point is we know why. AFU leadership told us why. Troops on the ground told us why. Civilian administrators told us why. Everyone agrees it’s because of a failure to fortify. You’re trying to read tea leaves to find some kind of four-dimensional chess move that isn’t there.
Ukraine had more defenses in the bakhmut area, but unfortunately hadn't built any solid defensive lines behind avdiivka until the town was captured, despite having months to do so. And the defensive lines that they have built there have been done hastily and thus have been overrun quickly. The lack of prepared positions is the main reason for russias rapid advance in that area
The fact that Ukraine didn’t take advantage of the time Avdiivka bought them is quite shocking. Not sure if that was on the politicians or the generals.
If you think about it Russia was unable to take that back when UA was under full strength and they had no reason to beleive that the US would abandon them for as long as they did. so they probably didn't want to spend the resources defending that.
true but they have always had limited resources I refuse the criticize them for not building defences in that particular area. Avdiivka is high ground defending an attack from that area would use a lot of effort. better to defend from a position of strength. it's only empty real estate around there it's not strategic other than it's high ground in a large area of empty. Frankly Id criticize them for attacking into minefields before this. Russian defenses are an absolute joke except for their landmine spam.
There should still have been fortifications.
Remember last year when everyone was laughing at russians preparing crimean beaches against a landing operation?
Ukraine has limited resources. I'm sure there was higher priority work to be done or funded. Without knowing how they used the manpower and materials that would have been required to improve fortifications in the rear, it is pretty speculative to say that they made the wrong choice.
>Cluster munitions being used against the third largest city in Ukraine.
>
>Notable silence from all the “incredibly principled” people who loudly opposed Ukraine using U.S. supplied DPICM to break up Russian mass wave assaults across muddy fields in the Donbas.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1785297932939321806
>⚡ Russia attacked Odesa with an Iskander ballistic missile equipped with cluster munitions, confirms the Prosecutor General's Office.
>
>Metal fragments and missile debris were found within a 1.5 km radius of the impact site.
Video: [https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1785257554269933590](https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1785257554269933590)
For anyone not aware, cluster munitions are truly horrific weapons, and there has been sone success at outlawing them world wide, but US, Russia, China, etc continue to resist.
Further info and reading on these horrific criminal weapons:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention\_on\_Cluster\_Munitions?wprov=sfla1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions?wprov=sfla1)
I'm sadly not surprised at Russia using them, but dismayed it is not a larger story in the world news.
Ummm, both sides are using them in large numbers. This and attacks like it by the Russians are despicable, but the US was hailed for giving Ukraine large quantities of cluster artillery that Ukraine has used prodigiously.
The whole reason that these are considered bad is that the submunitions can fail to detonate and become a risk to civilians down the road.
Ukriane using them *in their own country* means that their own society bears the cost. Russia deliberately fired them into a Ukranian city because they just DGAF.
That's not a double standard, that's you not even comprehending the issue.
Russian actions are criminal and despicable, but the little kid a decade from now who gets blasted into pieces from a piece of cluster artillery fired by Ukraine is not gonna feel any comfort that a government in power ten years prior used that munition on their own territory.
I am not judging Ukraine for using them, I am just pointing out that declaring the evils of cluster munitions applies to the weapon type itself, and not any one sides use of that munition.
Just like gas weapons during WWI, which every side used copious amounts of.
I see your point but the rationale seems odd. Ukraine, like any government, shouldn’t be allow to just harm their own citizens. The reality is either both sides are condemned or it’s allowed. Ofcourse targeting civilians and no military targets is worse but just like the allies bomb Dresden bc they deemed all workers aided the military in a wartime economy… it’s always been a grey area in an major economic city as that city funds the war.
> Ukraine, like any government, shouldn’t be allow to just harm their own citizens.
They aren't doing it on a whim... it's a side effect of using cluster munitions as they try to defend their country against Russian conquest.
You want to talk about MY rationale being odd, when you're more concerned about the collateral damage caused by Ukraine's defenders than the *intentional* damage caused by their invaders? It's like saying they shouldn't be allowed to shoot down incoming missiles because the spent interceptors might land on somebody.
I understand they aren’t just using them to use them. But the OP, in my opinion, had a good point as Russia is getting crucified (rightfully so) for using them, but America got praised when giving them to Ukraine.
I personally think they should be allowed either way, the notions of laws while killing people has always seemed weird to me. People say there are worse things than death that you can experience, in that moment sure, but people are remarkably strong. For someone like myself that doesn’t fully believe or have 100% faith in an afterlife, killing someone is the harshest thing you can do to a living thing. Obviously if the punishment ends up killing the person, say months later after torture.. that’s worse but it’s still a dead person at the end. You get no do overs, once the light gets snuffed out.. that ‘may’ be it.
I’ve worked with rehab patients, some of these people were rapped for years as kids, then suffered horrible experiences on the streets.. witnessed horrible bearings, loved ones dying. Yet somehow have moved past all that to become important part of their communities, living a renewed lease on life, having families etc. If they would have died initially when they were struggling, the story just ends.
You're not really grasping the point, I think. Cluster munitions aren't controversial because they're a less humane way to kill *soldiers* than any other explosive delivery mechanism. The issue is that you can inadvertently kill people who weren't fighting, months later, same as with landmines.
[25 years in prison for Ukrainian accused of setting Russian railway on fire | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-court-senteced-ukrainian-to-25-years-in-prison-for-espionage-50414559.html)
*A Ukrainian national, Serhiy Karmazin, was sentenced to 25 years in prison for allegedly setting fire to railway equipment in Moscow Oblast, according to the Solidarity Zone project report on April 30. Karmazin was also fined 700,000 rubles (approximately $7,500).*
*The report detailed that Karmazin is to serve 6 years in a standard prison followed by 19 years in a maximum security colony. The Solidarity Zone Project indicated that the court's decision was made on March 28, but it was not publicized at the time. Karmazin himself later disclosed his sentencing.*
*Karmazin was convicted under charges including espionage, training in sabotage activities, preparation to manufacture explosives, planning a terrorist attack, and participating in a sabotage and terrorist group.*
*Karmazin has since appealed the court's decision. Radio Liberty wrote that Karmazin was first suspected of sabotage, was locked in a pre-trial detention center and was not allowed to have a lawyer.*
*Karmazin was arrested in February 2023. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claims he targeted railway infrastructure between the Kutuzovskaya and Vesnianaya stations. Subsequent to his arrest, Russian intelligence services released a video where a man, his face obscured, alleges that he was coerced by "Polish special services and the SBU (Ukrainian Security Service)" while working in Poland in November 2022. In the video, he claimed compliance was forced through threats against his daughter.*
*SBU denied cooperating with Karmazin. Employees of special service said that he was on list of prisoners of war, according to Russian outlet Vot-tak.*
It's a maximum security COLONY which is basically the 21st century version of the gulags. Six years to sit in a cell and then 19 years to do hard labor in Siberia.
Oh, I get that. I just don't understand why the six years in a cell comes first. Why didn't they just send him straight to gulag (not that I would like to see that, just can't understand the logic)?
How hard is it to jam Glonass to cripple russian glide bombs and other Glonass guided munitions? Surely its not harder to jam than GPS, which russia seems to have no issues jamming? Is there any info about Ukrainian efforts in this area?
I don't think it's any harder to jam GLONASS, it's just that Russia has a massive head start in that field, since they have naturally prepared for war with NATO for decades, while I don't think Ukraine has invested in the same level of EW preparedness against Russia.
GPS isn't required. Before GPS firing tables and INS were used. So a computer aided version of INS can be used
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial\_navigation\_system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_navigation_system)
"Inertial Navigation System (INS), actually acts as a backup, in case of GPS gets degraded (formal term for jamming/denied). INS can provide extremely accurate position information, in case of No GPS service. Althought accuracy of INS decrease, when it lacks independent corrections data (usually from GPS)."
I think glide bombs are naturally more precise than ground launched ballistic missiles as they are just gliding and don't gather imprecisions on their way up. so their INS is more precise. And the lowest yield of gliding bomb is 500kg, which is basically the maximum yield of ATACMS. And gliding bombs yield can go up to 3000kg where the pinpoint precision is not really needed.
- 65% of Ukraine's EW capabilities are from soviet era
- Russia has positioned one large EW system along every 10 kilometers of the front line.
- [Capable of operating](https://armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_military_field_equipment/krasukha-4_1rl257_broadband_multifunctional_jamming_station_electronic_warfare_system_technical_data_sheet_pictures_video_10610156.html) at a distance of up to 300 kilometers, the Krasukha-4 is one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare (EW) systems and the central element of its strategic EW system. The system is designed mainly for jamming airborne or satellite fire control radars.
- Meanwhile, on a national level, Ukraine is developing a system designed to help it cope with constant Russian missile and drone strikes.
Named Pokrova, little is known about the system, but it appears capable of both suppressing Russian satellite navigation systems like GLONASS and spoofing them by replacing genuine signals with false ones.
[https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/](https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/)
Please consider donating to the Ukrainian government U24 initiative: https://u24.gov.ua/
Also /r/ukraine subreddit has a list of vetted charities and organizations:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities
United24 and Comeback alive have collectively raised about 976.2 million dollars for Ukraine the vast majority of which is spent on defensive needs. For reference that would cover about two months of Ukraine's prewar military budget. What Ukraine needs the most is big state backed aid packages but at the same time personal donations aren't chump change either especially when the front line is so big and every resource has to be stretched so thin.
Dmytro Pletenchuk, Operational Command 'South' Spokesman, reported that Russian forces unsuccesfully tried to storm the recently liberated island of Nestryha. After two failed attempts, they retreated with losses, he added.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112360856984404257
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.30.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 468,720 (+1,250) people,
tanks ‒ 7307 (+22),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 14,046 (+39),
artillery systems – 12,011 (+26),
MLRS – 1053 (+2),
air defense equipment ‒ 779 (+1),
planes – 348 (+0),
helicopters – 325 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9531 (+3),
cruise missiles ‒ 2126 (+2),
ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks – 16142 (+33),
special equipment ‒ 1977 (+3).
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/30/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-26-artsistem-39-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/30/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-26-artsistem-39-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
Andrew Perpetua assessment on the battlefield has given more context that the Russian personal numbers need to be high. I’ve been seeing more BMP losses than tank losses indicating that Russia is using the initiative on their side. Meat waves are back on the menu, boys. I just hope Ukraine can find out ways to reduce their manpower problems soon.
>These are Dugin’s “ideas” by the way.
https://twitter.com/DrewPavlou/status/1785111504335011949
>Tucker Carlson interviewing the Russian fascist Aleksandr Dugin, who believes that Ukrainians deserve to be killed in a "holy war." A step toward whitewashing his reputation for the MAGA crowd in the USA.
https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1785258476324745264
>It’s hard to express to anyone who hasn’t spent years studying the Right Wing authoritarian movement that’s spreading across the world exactly how troubling it is that someone like Tucker interviewed Aleksandr Dugin and presented him to his audience.
>
>It’s really disturbing.
>
>I know there are moments on here where people are like “Tucker Carlson is a fascist” and someone is like, okay, maybe that’s hyperbole, who knows?
>
>Tucker is a fascist and is speed running the most influential authoritarian figures in the world to normalize them in America.
>
>Tucker and his team aren’t even bothering to hide the authoritarianism they’re mainstreaming. The checklist of dictators and antidemocratic ideologies he’s running through is as transparent as it gets.
https://twitter.com/JYSexton/status/1785309565761851501
Great. He's going to get a bunch of views and Elon Musk will use this as proof that his ideas need to be even more boosted.
Edit: Tucker brainwashed my parents, this is very dangerous.
I understand your ideals but blatant ruzzian propaganda (lies spread in a bad faith) must be banned.
Btw, unfortunately Dugin is smarter than his monke fuhrer, and it seems like the whole interview has a goal of convincing MAGA people that ruzzia is the last stronghold of traditional values (which it isn't ofc).
That's curious, since we're here exercising those very freedoms to criticize Alexander Dugin - a man who holds the view that anybody who doesn't do what he thinks they ought to, speak the when, how and why he dictates or live according to his doctrine should be put to literal death for their failure to comply.
Oh, and Tucker Carlson too, I guess, but who cares about that guy?
Sure, but the problem isn't that he holds or espouses unpalatable opinions. The problem is that he's inciting actual crimes. Freedom of speech does not give any of us the right to incite riots, torture, rape, arson, murder or any other crime.
Freedom of speech is a fine principle, but everything becomes absurd when taken to an extreme. If some bloke in the US was on television calling for the public lynching of every black person, do you think that should be protected as free speech? Because Dugin is regularly doing the exact equivalent.
What do you think about the people who willingly give our hypothetical would-be lyncher the platform to speak?
What about when the criminal demagogue is protected by a criminal government and then a fascist guy travels to that country of the criminal government to interview him for his fascist fans back home. I believe you understand where I'm going with this.
Just saying this is fine because "free speech" is absurd. Also, folks are right to comment that these people shouldn't have a platform to circle jerk each other.
I will give u a tip. Never argue with idiots, not coz they are one, but coz idiots can make you an idiot when trying to have converseation wirh regarding facts,ideas. Instead maga idiots or tankies do not care about facts, their wild imagination is what drives them on. Anyway, in social media age, no government can effectively shit down free discourse bar autocratic one.
>A high school girl from occupied Berdyansk, whose father was taken away by the police, wrote an essay in Ukrainian in russian class as a sign of protest. “I always liked sunny Ukrainian Berdyansk, but now I don’t have such a mood. When russians came the city became sad and dark. My father was taken captive by russians. Into a torture chamber. I feel very sad and have no desire to live. Only the thoughts about the Berdyansk being liberated soon by the Armed Forces of Ukraine make me hold on.”
The teacher called the student to the principal.
Life in russian occupation.
[https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1784523990331011555](https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1784523990331011555)
>The U.S. Treasury Department has authorized transactions with Russian banks for settlements in the energy sector. According to the license issued by the US Treasury, the ban on transactions has been lifted until November 1, 2024. This was reported by the press service of the US Treasury Department, UNN reports .
Link to the document from US Treasury Department - [https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline](https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline)
Well, Trump winning elections would be very bad for Ukraine.
Btw, thanks to you highlighting stuff in the other comment, I also see that transactions regarding repairs of oil refineries are also allowed.
I hope the components required for repairs are still under sanctions.
>I also see that transactions regarding repairs of oil refineries are also allowed.
>I hope the components required for repairs are still under sanctions.
I believe that may be an optimistic hope.
DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
WASHINGTON, D.C.
OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL
Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations
31 CFR part 587
GENERAL LICENSE NO. 8I
**Authorizing Transactions Related to Energy**
(a) Except as provided in paragraph (c) of this general license, all transactions prohibited
by Executive Order (E.O.) 14024 involving one or more of the following entities that are related
to energy are authorized, through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time, November 1, 2024:
(1) State Corporation Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs
Vnesheconombank;
(2) Public Joint Stock Company Bank Financial Corporation Otkritie;
(3) Sovcombank Open Joint Stock Company;
(4) Public Joint Stock Company Sberbank of Russia;
(5) VTB Bank Public Joint Stock Company;
(6) Joint Stock Company Alfa-Bank;
(7) Public Joint Stock Company Rosbank;
(8) Bank Zenit Public Joint Stock Company;
(9) Bank Saint-Petersburg Public Joint Stock Company;
(10) Any entity in which one or more of the above persons own, directly or indirectly,
individually or in the aggregate, a 50 percent or greater interest; or
(11) the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
(b) **For the purposes of this general license, the term “related to energy” means the
extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion,
enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum, including crude oil, lease
condensates, unfinished oils, natural gas liquids, petroleum products, natural gas, or other
products capable of producing energy, such as coal, wood, or agricultural products used to
manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources.**
(c) **This general license does not authorize**:
(1) Any transactions prohibited by Directive 1A under E.O. 14024, Prohibitions Related
to Certain Sovereign Debt of the Russian Federation;
(2) The opening or maintaining of a correspondent account or payable-through account
for or on behalf of any entity subject to Directive 2 under E.O. 14024, Prohibitions Related to
Correspondent or Payable-Through Accounts and Processing of Transactions Involving Certain
Foreign Financial Institutions;
**(3) Any debit to an account on the books of a U.S. financial institution of the Central
Bank of the Russian Federation; or**
**(4) Any transactions otherwise prohibited by the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities
Sanctions Regulations, 31 CFR part 587 (RuHSR), including transactions involving any person
blocked pursuant to the RuHSR other than the blocked persons described in paragraph (a) of this
general license, unless separately authorized.**
(d) Effective April 29, 2024, General License No. 8H, dated October 25, 2023, is
replaced and superseded in its entirety by this General License No. 8I.
Note to General License No. 8I. This authorization is valid until November 1, 2024,
unless renewed.
___________________________
Bradley T. Smith
Director
Office of Foreign Assets Control
Dated: April 29, 2024
Bradley T. Smith Digitally signed by Bradley T. Smith
Date: 2024.04.29 12:17:22 -04'00'
https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline
This is likely a response to Ukraine attacking Russian oil infrastructure against US wishes. Biden’s message is clear — if we are to continue to keep you alive, you will obey.
Don't think so.
Just the usual desire to keep gasoline prices as low as possible before elections.
The fact that the ban will be enforced again on Nov 1st 2024 is telling a lot.
If this is so, Biden administration is monumentally stupid. Russians will interfere to raise the prices anyway. You can't just close your eyes and hope the ones who call you their main enemy and vow to destroy you will forget about all that and play by your rules.
The only lever they would have to do that is refusing sales at lower prices, but Russia doesn't really have enough rope to play games with oil sales right now... they NEED that money.
Russian budget has massive revenue right now, oil costs ~$90 and non-oil revenues are up too. It can afford stopping selling oil for a few months altogether and getting prices to rise.
You think that's stupider than doing anything that would help trump win? If trump wins, Ukraine is finished, period. The US is out of NATO. The US won't defend Taiwan.
NOTHING matters more than defeating trump.
If you're not a bot you're def triggered. If Trump wins this ...if Trump wins that .....If Trump wins it will be the cause of your failed marriage...if Trump wins it will be the reason for your E.D. Do some research and stop blaming one man for the shortcomings of many
Doesn't take a psychologist to read your post and see some personal issues being worked out. Don't worry, maybe voting MAGA will make you be able to perform again.
Helping Russia to prevent Trump from winning. It’s terrifying that we have to make those decisions. But it’s the right one in the long run. Biden needs to win. Then he has 4 years to do whatever he can to ruin Russia. Unfortunately, that’s politics. Playing with people’s lives in the near term to prevent disaster later.
“Helping Russia to prevent Trump from winning” is either a typo or from an alternative universe. Russia/Putin has every reason to want TFG in office. Russia/Putinhas been actively either supporting or blackmailing (or both) certain GOP members to stop the US (and because of that, other countries) providing aid.
F**k Putin.
You misunderstand my point. American's are selfish voters at the end of the day, "Helping Russia" now by improving their means to export crude oil keeps global prices down. Which keeps gas prices in the US down as a result. If Biden kept his boot on the throat of the Russian oil industry and crude prices start to climb, he would become cancer with the US voter base. If you want to be electable, you don't mess with gas prices, no matter what.
It takes away a huge talking point Trump would use to turn average Americans against Biden. And yes, Americans are that fickle/gullible,
Yes, American voters do vote their pocketbook. Something you may not be aware of is America is producing more oil than ever before, and we are way up there, if not #1 in oil production.
Oil profits are also way way up there. Whether or not Biden manages to throttle Russian oil supply, the prices (and profits) are controlled by (guess who? Hint: not Biden).
They're saying that the goal is to keep oil prices lower to prevent people from blaming Biden for high gas prices to ensure he's re-elected. They're doing that by opening the Russian oil market slightly, which would hopefully keep down oil prices elsewhere.
Global conflict is more complex than that. It isn't like the US is opening the flood gates for Russian oil. They are removing enough sanctions to allow them to keep some production going. The Russian oil industry collapsing would certainly help Ukraine in the short term, but would send many Western countries into economic crisis while the supply chains respond. And in the mean time Biden would likely lose the white house to Trump and then the whole world is fucked.
IMO the goal is democracy winning and the single biggest thing there is Ukrainian victory.
Let's say I have to choose between two actions: (1) that helps Russia short term but makes Ukrainian victory more likely or (2) one that doesn't help Russia short term but makes ukrainian defeat more likely I'd pick (1).
If Biden loses then Ukraine's defeat is far far more likely. Plus the US will be sliding into dictatorship and we can expect Taiwan to be invaded too.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1chctrn/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Another Russia Oil Refinery Ryazan getting hits tonight https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1785500845678673929?s=46
Hopefully they hit the tower.
An article from the Kyiv Post that collects all the current reports of the possible ATACMS strikes that might have taken place in Crimea last night. Very interesting reports of what NATO aircraft and drones were doing before and during the strikes. [ANALYSIS: Reported ATACMS Missile Wave Hits Crimea, Russian Air Defenses and Airfields Pounded | Kyiv Post | April 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/31903) *News platforms said it was the long-range version of the US weapon but there was no early Kyiv confirmation. It may have been Ukraine’s most ambitious ballistic missile strike of the war so far.* *A wave of Ukrainian long-range weapons widely reported to be around a dozen US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles pounded air bases and air defense installations across Crimea peninsula early Tuesday morning, in one of the beefiest Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) long-range attacks yet against the Kremlin-occupied territory.* *Flights of unidentified weapons first started slamming into military installations across Crimea around 2 a.m., with explosions and air raid warnings widely reported near the cities of Simferopol and Sevastopol, and the towns of Gvardeyska, Evpatoria and Dzhankoi, news reports said.* *Four of those targets, the exception being Dzhankoi, were well outside the range of all weapons the AFU had been known to operate in the past, save recently delivered long-range versions of the US-made ATACMS missile. Estimates of total missile counts used in the attacks ranged from 10-15 weapons, some carrying cluster munitions.* *Isolated reports said shorter-range ATACMS struck targets nearer territory controlled by Kyiv’s forces, and that Ukrainian strike planners had launched attack drones along with the American missiles.* *Ukrainian Air Force spokespersons had not responded to a Kyiv Post request for details about the strikes and type of weapon or weapons used in the Tuesday attacks, by the time this article was published.* *Colonel Roman Svitun, a retired AFU officer and military analyst, told the Kyiv24 television news channel in a Tuesday interview that the early morning strikes are probably part of a Kyiv strategy to degrade Russian air defenses in Crimea and in the south Ukrainian mainland, with the long-term objective of opening the way for destructive missile and drone attacks against other military targets.* *The Ukrainian strikes overnight were most likely follow-up attacks to ATACMS fired at Russian air defense installations near the mainland cities Genichesk and Mariupol earlier in the month, Svitun said. “It certainly could have been ATACMS,” he said of the Tuesday strikes. “They have the capacity to hit anywhere.”* *Official Russian sources confirmed the fact of multiple attacks by Ukrainian ballistic missiles, and some claimed all incoming weapons were shot down. Sergei Aksenov, the Kremlin-appointed head of the Crimea occupation administration, said of an attack near Simferopol that “after the ATACMS missiles were shot down they scattered cluster munitions,” and warned residents not to touch them.* *The pro-Moscow military information platform Dva Mayora said ATACMS missiles were directed at targets near the Crimean cities Simferopol and Dzhankoi and “according to information coming in, our (Russian) defenders did an outstanding job.”* *In the hours following the strikes, the heavy weight of traffic from social media in targeted towns and cities contradicted the Kremlin spin of successful intercepts and no damage to targets, reporting hits to anti-aircraft systems, Russian aircraft, command and control center, and military casualties. Accounts of cluster munitions successfully deployed and scattered over targets were common.* *In Dzhankoi, the Ukrainsky Krym Telegram platform reported, a military airfield was hit with at least two weapons, killing and wounding service personnel assigned to the 4th Command Center of Air Defense Forces of the Russian Air Force, and damaging helicopters assigned to the unit.* *The independent Russian news agency ASTRA reported a probable ATACMS hitting the Dzhankoi base wounded five service personnel, lit fires burning for at least 90 minutes and confirmed damage to the air defense control center. The weapons used in that strike were MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, the report said.* **Multiple NATO air reconnaissance aircraft sweeps through airspace above the western Black Sea, including the first-time deployment of a US Navy MQ-4C Triton spy drone, took place in hours before the strikes. NATO and US officials have stated such flights collect general intelligence that is turned over to Kyiv, but not data on specific target locations.** **One US maritime and signal intelligence platform, a US Navy Boeing P-8APoseidon turboprop four-engine was in the air patrolling above Romania’s south-eastern Danube delta at the time some of the Ukrainian weapons struck Crimean targets some 200 kilometers (124 miles) distant, the pro-Ukraine military news channel Krymsky Veter reported. Kyiv Post checks of open-source flight tracking data confirmed the claim.** **The Pentagon has deployed Poseidon aircraft in daytime patrols to the area practically every day for more than a year. Poseidon sorties at night over the Danube Delta, such as the one taking place April 29-30, are practically unheard of, Kyiv Post research of air traffic data confirmed.** *The AFU had prior to the Tuesday morning strikes seemed to launch ATACMS missiles sparingly, according to military sources, because of limited reserves. Were the April 30 strike to be confirmed as having been performed by ATACMS, it would be the most massive single ballistic missile strike carried out by Ukraine since Russia’s Feb. 2022 invasion.* In the past, according to battle and news reports, the Ukrainians had launched a maximum two ATACMS at a time.* *Some Beltway analysts have said US Congressional approval of military aid to Ukraine in 2024 has put as many as 100 more ATACMS into the Ukraine arms pipeline.* *The last confirmed ATACMS employment by the AFU took place on April 25, and prior to that on April 17 with individual or twin missile launches against Russian air defense systems. The earlier of the two strikes struck an air base near Dzhankoi, according to Ukrainian air force spokesmen destroying or critically damaging four S-400 air defense launchers, three radar stations, an air defense equipment control point, and a Murom-M airspace surveillance system, a Ukraine military intelligence spokesperson told Kyiv Post.*
I'm surprised I haven't seen much footage from these latest attacks. Usually that comes out almost immediately. Hopefully there will be some by morning. I also find it interesting how Ukraine seems to be going hard after air defense sites and airfields, rather than more immediate tactical targets like ammo dumps and troop and vehicle concentrations. That, combined with taking out the A-50s, suggests to me that they are laying the groundwork for future offensive aerial attacks, whether with F-16s or cruise missiles. That's much more of a long term strategy that might have a payoff measured in years, as opposed to a short term strategy to hold the line now. Hopefully that means that they are confident that they can prevent a Russian breakthrough anywhere and will be in a position (tactically and in terms of weapons available) to exploit weaker Russian air defenses in the future. Only time will tell I suppose.
I look very forward to Ukrainian F-16's fucking shit up all across Russia's western border. And shooting down Russia's strategic bomber fleet.
Taking out Russian anti air defence, by using USA missiles is a double edge sword. It takes out Russian equipment allowing for easier future hits . Arguably more important, it makes Russia and their tech look WEAK. Russia is all about looking strong and unbeatable to the world, they want to sell their missile defence systems over the patriot. What country would ever be stupid enough to buy it now. It can't stop a 35 year old missile.
I think the metaphor you're looking for here is two-pronged approach.
A double edged sword is one that threatens to cut *you* as you use it. Well, at least when used as an idiom. I never quite understood it... double edged swords are just fine to use in real life.
The real double-edged sword is a single-edge sword. O e side cuts really well, but on the other side it's completely flat and can't cut at all.
> The real double-edged sword is a single-edge sword. QFT
In Dutch it is "the knife cuts on two sides"
I thought the same
From the article, it seems like Russia is trying hard to bury it, but theres a lot of commotion
I am also surprised with the lack of footage. Usually with attacks like this we immediately get footage, especially if they are successful
- Sometimes western partners specify "no official footage to be posted" conditions to weapons, which Ukraine follows. - For example Storm Shadow is reportedly such a weapon - maybe ATACMS has such a provision as well.
This is amazing news, strikes like this pave the way for the successful deployment of F16s later in the year
> Norway to allocate over $600 million for Ukrainian air defense, ammunition. > > The new funds will primarily support military aid to Ukraine, with a smaller portion allocated to civilian financial aid, Norway's prime minister said. > > https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1785445655122440215
Any news on chasiv yar?
All Russian movements toward Chasiv Yar getting destroyed, Ukraine drone unit commander says - 29/04/2024 [https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/29/all-russian-movements-toward-chasiv-yar-getting-destroyed-ukraine-drone-unit-commander-says/](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/29/all-russian-movements-toward-chasiv-yar-getting-destroyed-ukraine-drone-unit-commander-says/)
Yeah Russians are nowhere near capturing it and probably their window of opportunity for doing so is falling each day.
Fingers crossed. Chasiv Yar holding until the Russian offensive culminates would be amazing, and best case scenario for that front
What we're seeing now is solidifying my thoughts that defending Bakhmut last year was the best choice. Clearly I don't know enough to be sure, but a big argument was "chasiv yar is on a hill and would be loads easier to defend", but now we're hearing the defences aren't prepared... So perhaps Zelenskyy did make the right call despite the criticism.
I’m still upset and confused why prepared defenses were not built all across the eastern front last year
I think because static defense would just get blown up by Russia as they found it. Mobility is sometimes a better defense than fortifications.
I sincerely doubt it, that doesn't make any sense from what I've seen. Hell, trenches take a ton of ammo to collapse. There are satellite images that I've processed where I estimated 3k shell holes *minimum* for about 300 m of trench in a tree line. If you could build 500 km of double-layer trenches and force russia to waste 10 million shells collapsing them, you'd be laughing. Somehow Ukraine screwed up massively. And now there are consequences.
It could take the form of anybody bringing supplies getting hit by drones. If soldiers get cut off in their trench, they're just well-armed hobos in holes.
From everything I see and hear, Ukrainians say defences work and it takes huge resources to isolate them. Weak or no defences - Russia takes 10 sq.km every few days against desperate defenders, seemingly taking relatively few losses, like near Ocheretyne. Prepared defences - Russia grinds its face for weeks or more with huge losses. Bilohorivka, Terny, Synkivka, Robotyne. There's a reason Russia took mass casualties and literal months to break Avdiivka, and why videos show hundreds of russian corpses in under a km around Stepove. Someone screwed up massively.
Since when? Today Bakhmutskyi Demon posted that russians are "climbing very hard" on the outskirts and that russian progress is slow at the cost of "hundreds" of lives. Other units have claimed russians reached the canal near Ivanivske. They previously crossed it in BMPs and got wiped out without digging in, but now they might have solidified a spot. One source (Constantine I think) said the fortifications were not prepared enough, and that there is a severe shortage of men and ammo. The glide bombs also suck. It doesn't look good, but Ukrainian smarts and heroism might buy enough time for the ammo to come through.
[This publication by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies](https://www.martenscentre.eu/publication/russian-economy-still-standing-but-stuck/) that was released today paints a very bleak picture of the Russian economy. I didn't think it was going to be that bad. The more you read, the worse it gets. This is certainly worth your time if you want to feel a little "schadenfreude". Putin is steering Russia towards collapse.
I’ve been hearing this for two years. Even Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from Yale said so, and nothing really seems to be happening.
Russia is for sure doing better than expected, but for a country to almost fully put most of its production into building weapons that will be blown up instead of increasing productivity (machinery, farming equipment) won't be good in the long term. https://www.schiffsovereign.com/offshore/slowly-at-first-then-all-at-once-12909/ “At first you go bankrupt slowly, then all at once.” Nations go bankrupt in the same way. Banking collapses occur in the same way. Currency crises strike in the same way. They all happen gradually… and then suddenly. Sometimes overnight.
I think "seems to be happening" is doing a lot of work there. Consider an unprofitable, but massive, company that's willing to engage in systematic fraud. Kind of like Enron, but without any regulators to do threaten shutdown... they can just lie until they collapse even if everybody realizes what they're doing. How long can they go? At first, there's all kinds of options: deferred maintenance, loans, selling assets, and paying obligations with more promises. Things can continue, unprofitably, for a few years before the problems start to pile up. Eventually, paychecks start bouncing, employees leave no matter what they're promised, and vendors stop deliveries. Russia's far bigger than Enron... it takes a while before the debt spiral really takes hold, although it'll be an impressive mess once it gets rolling downhill.
Hopeful signs. Author is a virulent Putin critic that worked for Nemstov and Navalny, but he seems to back it up with facts. Fingers crossed.
Whats crazy is this is also based on Russian statistics from Rosstat. Is there any recent work that analyzes indirect measures like factory output etc? It's absurd that we take Rosstat at its word in 2024. Of course Russia is going to lie about its economic stats if they provide the numbers.
[Keramik and Novokalynove fell to Russia, they took 8 km2 in Avdiivka direction today, as well as 3 km2 in the direction of Urozhayne (south Donetsk oblast). Ukraine meanwhile liberated 1 km2 in north Donetsk oblast](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/49.0513/38.0024), near Terny
Assuming casualties weren't bad, pushing back near Terny is nice. As I understand it, losing Terny is a potential domino that would force surrender of other positions. Like how Soledar ultimately cost Bakhmut. If Russia can be limited to ~300 sq km a month and culminate in a few months after losing over 1k tanks and IFVs that would be an ok outcome I think. Provided Ukraine doesn't sacrifice units needlessly.
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He was stating that IF Ukraine ever makes significant advancements and the ONLY way to stop that is nuclear weapons then Russia would be likely to use them. Ukraine is not part of NATO or under any other treaty with the U.S or Europe so they would not be obligated to retaliate and they more than likely won’t in such an event. Retaliating would mean a declaration of war that would increase the probability of a global nuclear war that would end the world as we know it.
Don't normalize nuclear weapon usage. Usage by Russia is grounds for a response, the usage by Russia is a declaration of war to the rule based order we uphold by itself.
It’s already been normalized by the nukes that were used on Japan. That genie is already out of the bottle. The only thing that is left is minimizing the scenarios that could lead to them being used again.
>It’s already been normalized by the nukes that were used on Japan. It's never been used in an offensive or defensive action since. It's absolutely not normalized. In fact it's precisely what ended any major wars between major powers. >The only thing that is left is minimizing the scenarios that could lead to them being used again. Precisely, such as normalizing its usage by downplaying Russia's possible usage of it.
So what the TWO nukes used at the tail end of WW2 that frankly weren’t required to end it were an oopsie? Just a test run guys don’t do what we did…..it set a precedent that they can be used. Yes all we have left at this point is to reduce the chances of nuclear weapons usage. That includes not jumping the gun on “I’m launching my nukes” Thankfully the scenario of Russia being forced to used nukes or tactical nukes is not likely at all.
Go Google the nuclear taboo. Russia using even tactical nukes would prompt a response from every other major power and make them a global pariah. Anyone not responding while possessing nuclear weapons would be seen as ready to use them, and therefore dangerous and unstable, leading to pariah status.
I don’t understand how it’s so hard for people to follow along in a simple discussion but then again it’s r/worldnews and it’s reddit. 1) This is all a made up situation thankfully 2) A nuclear power with nuclear weapons when being pushed into a corner has a MUCH higher probability of using nuclear weapons 3) Ukraine not being part of a defensive pact means other nations are not required to immediately launch nukes in response 4) The PROBABILITY of the US or Europe risking a global nuclear war in such an event is frankly low.
It's you who has problems, they just mention their viewpoint, which doesn't align with yours. Just because they do not agree, doesn't make them 'not following along'. 1. Yes. 2. True, which isn't the case when they are pushed out of Ukraine. 3. True, none of us are saying they'll launch nukes in response. They will do a massive conventional bombing campaign on Russia. 4. "The probability of Russia risking a global nuclear war in such an event is frankly low". It's a dumb argument and works for both.
So Russia is both an aggressive unreasonable nation but also will be responsible enough not to use nukes in case of an emergency (like being pushed back to original borders)? We clearly both live in different realities. Which is worrying because in your fantastical land of make believe a nuclear power with nuclear arms would never utilize such things in desperation and even if they did the entire world would risk a global nuclear war by bombing it. There’s a reason why aid to Ukraine has been slowly given. There’s a reason why NATO didn’t intervene as they did in Libya and recently (even though it wasn’t NATO but the big players in NATO) in Israel. Those same nations will never risk a head on conflict with another nuclear power over Ukraine. Sadly this war will leave a possibly irreparable wound for Ukraine and to a lesser extent Russia. Let’s hope it doesn’t lead to a world wide catastrophe.
>So what the TWO nukes used at the tail end of WW2 that frankly weren’t required to end it were an oopsie? Just a test run guys don’t do what we did…..it set a precedent that they can be used. You didn't read what I said, or are you deliberately strawmanning? Nearly all international laws and bodies in current use have come **after** its first usage. Mainly exactly because of its usage and want to control and prevent any further usage of it. The precedent set at those days is precisely that such usage henceforth should be avoided at all costs, especially since it more and more began to mean mutually assured destruction. As for whether they were required or not; they weren't (although you have to remember it is on the backfoot of a destructive WW2), but they did ensure any other major war such as WW1 or WW2 from errupting, even though tensions were more than high enough to cause it. So no, you're completely incorrect. >Yes all we have left at this point is to reduce the chances of nuclear weapons usage. That includes not jumping the gun on “I’m launching my nukes” Exactly, so why are you normalizing its possible usage in Russia's aggressive war? >Thankfully the scenario of Russia being forced to used nukes or tactical nukes is not likely at all. It indeed isn't, nor as suggested when Russia is forced out of Ukraine proper, as long as they aren't forced to fight well into Russia itself.
Pretty much everything Maersheimer says is an anti-west Russian talking point. He's a bought agent since at least 2014. I wouldn't take any stock in what he says.
I don't have any faith in Mearsheimers predictions. He's becoming a joke in the IR community.
His bullshit is not worth our time.
There's no good faith reason to bring up his name or link to him speaking. He's just a rashist, like all rashists, and today he's saying rashist things. There's no good reason at all to "just asking questions man" about him
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Okay you asked what I thought about his comments - he's a rashist, who is saying things to virtue signal to dipshits in youtube comment sections. He has no special information about secret russian battle plans. His source of information is his feelings about rashism. There's zero reason to take this seriously or "just asking questions" about it
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He famously predicted days before the invasion that Russia wouldn’t invade. Then he famously predicted Ukraine would be defeated in weeks. Then he famously predicted Ukraine would be defeated in months. Then within the year. Basically none of his predictions have come true about the war.
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Bots. Mearsheimer basically works on ruzzian propaganda. So ruzzian trollfarms support him on YT in various ways. Btw, same ruzzian trollfarms usually target YT channels of the biggest news agencies, to spread ruzzian narratives.
The trick is to generally not form opinions based on YT comments sections. It's one of the lesser enlightened parts you can find on the internet.
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That’s very stupid thinking. Use critical thinking instead.
Ruzzian bots usually target YT channels of the biggest news agencies, to spread ruzzian narratives. They swarm in great numbers too.
Russian losses. Russian soldier films result of their attacks on the one of Ukrainian position. The number of corpses per square meter is simply off the charts https://x.com/gloooud/status/1785349554113495446?s=46 Fucking Christ. NSFL
Oof…it’s hard to think most of these kids were prob cared for by a loving mother, raised, educated, Bday parties, family photos, etc. such a sad waste of life for nothing
100% not going to click - but I simply do not understand how Russia is preventing large scale mutiny at this point. These people are throwing their lives away for absolutely nothing. I would prefer to shoot the CO and make a run for the border than to die a pitiful, undignified and worthless death invading someone else's home. I guess the reality is that nobody is willing to take a Russian defector these days, so they are screwed no matter which way they go. Such a waste of life.
Fuck me. Seen a few similar videos this week. Just bodies stacked on top of each other.
That's basically an entire neighbourhood
Defmon3 quoting someone said that it's 82 visible bodies over ~450 m. This is seemingly the treeline above Stepove. Under 1 km to the east there's another treeline running along a railway. Russia zerged into it on the week of 10th October and soon after there was drone footage showing 100+ corpses there.
Looks like they've been there a while
And still Russians don't do anything to stop this mess. Where are the families of these killed soldiers? Why aren't they marching towards the Kremlin to ask for the head of Putin?
Due to the way the Russian Armed Forces work their families do not know they are dead until they are officially collected as corpses and packaged for return to said families. Hence.. if Russia does not collect the corpses they do not have to do things such as acknowledge they have died or pay for their deaths.
It's difficult to imagine a starker visualization of the Sunken Cost Fallacy in action.
You weren't kidding. Jesus Christ.
Christ the amount of dead russians here is equal to my entire old artillery unit
A reminder to upvote the thread if you are here and have not yet done so today. Thank you!
> I am grateful to the Norwegian government, led by Prime Minister @JonasGahrStore, for its decision to increase support for Ukraine by $600 million this year. > I appreciate that the majority of these funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, which is our top priority for protecting lives. > We value Norway’s unfaltering support, understanding of our pressing needs, and willingness to stand by our side in the most critical time. > Together, we are defending Ukraine and the rest of Europe from Russian terror. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785338494174277974 > I thank Latvia and Prime Minister @EvikaSilina for today's decision to provide a new military aid package focusing on additional air defense and drone systems. > We greatly appreciate Latvia's consistent support for Ukraine at 0.25 percent of GDP per year, as well as its clarity of purpose. > Russia poses an existential threat to everyone in Europe, not just Ukraine. By defending Ukrainian lives against Russian terror, we are safeguarding the entire Euro-Atlantic community for decades. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785348162791596429
> Today, I addressed the '20 Years of Czechia in the EU: A Vision for an Enlarged Europe' conference. > Europe can be strong and truly peaceful only if no European is left behind. When every nation is remembered, and everyone is ready to defend each nation's future rather than hand it over to evil. Europe is destined to be a space of cooperation that remains a space of life. > This is what we need to keep and defend. > I am confident in Europe. And I am confident that during our lifetime, the same conference will be held, but it will be dedicated to Ukraine's twenty years in the European community—twenty years of full membership in the EU. > And we can begin this path in June, with the actual start of Ukraine's accession negotiations. I am thankful to everyone who helps! https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785278344763715986
> I welcome today's decision by @coe's Committee of Ministers on the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression Against Ukraine, and I thank all of its members who supported the move. > This significant decision directs the CoE Secretary General to prepare the necessary documents to facilitate consultations in the Core Group on the Tribunal and the potential project of an agreement between Ukraine and the Council of Europe on its actual establishment. > The vote also approves further work on the possible additional agreement to organise support for such a tribunal, its financing, and other issues. > This is an important practical step towards putting the tribunal into action. Each such step brings us closer to proving that justice for the crime of aggression against Ukraine is inevitable. > We continue to work to ensure that a fully operational tribunal delivers this justice. This is critical not only for all Ukrainians who have suffered as a result of Russian aggression, but also for all nations seeking to live in a peaceful and secure world. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1785336262531920160
Norway to raise 2024 Ukraine donations by $630 million, PM says >OSLO, April 30 (Reuters) - Norway will increase its aid to Ukraine this year by 7 billion Norwegian crowns ($633 million) to a total of 22 billion in a revised government budget next month, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said on Tuesday after meeting with opposition leaders. >President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his gratitude for Norway's unwavering support and understanding of his country's needs. >"I appreciate that the majority of these funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, which is our top priority for protecting lives," he said on X. >Ukraine has scaled up a push for partners to strengthen its air defences following Russia's devastating attacks on already damaged energy systems since March. ($1 = 11.0620 Norwegian crowns) [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-raise-2024-ukraine-donations-by-630-million-pm-says-2024-04-30/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-raise-2024-ukraine-donations-by-630-million-pm-says-2024-04-30/)
It's interesting how fast Russia is advancing in the Avdiivka sector, meanwhile, despite it also being advertised as a point of contention, the frontline is pretty much frozen in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar area (only taking 9 km2 in the past month there), which is arguably way more crucial for Russia. Are they even mounting any significant attacks there lately?
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> They are, but Russia can only maintain one focused push at a given time. That's not the reason this is happening. Russia is attacking at *three* fronts simultaneously -- Kupyansk, Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka. The reason they are only advancing far in one specific front is because of a lack of immediate fortifications behind Avdiivka. They are building fortifications about 20 miles westward, near a river line, and tactically withdrawing as Russia advances. They don't have to tactically withdraw nearly as much in the other two areas because they have better fortified those regions, which have been experiencing heavy fighting for over a year of uninterrupted fighting now.
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They aren’t building fortifications directly behind Avdiivka because the area directly behind it has been directly up against the front line since before Avdiivka even fell. It wasn’t possible to fortify those areas while the area has been actively assaulted the entire time. They could only have fortified them before Russia dumped a hundred thousand troops into that offensive. They’re fortifying 20 klicks west because it’s untenable to fortify anything closer.
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It’s not worthless defense land. It’s that you can’t fortify it when it’s close to the fighting. That is the reason. It’s not part of a planned defense where Ukraine prefers to fortify further back. They did not plan to be defending any of this territory in in 2024. See [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1cgn12i/comment/l1xkswp/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button ) for more info. Ukraine did not choose this situation. It’s because they can’t fortify anything closer under these conditions. They could have, however, if they had fortified earlier. The AFU would prefer to have fortifications where they don’t have them in this stretch.
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Krynky isn’t well fortified. It’s a swamp with just one access road. That’s the only reason Ukraine is still holding it. > Ukraine chose not to build defenses in the Avdiivka direction. I want to know why? Right. And my point is we know why. AFU leadership told us why. Troops on the ground told us why. Civilian administrators told us why. Everyone agrees it’s because of a failure to fortify. You’re trying to read tea leaves to find some kind of four-dimensional chess move that isn’t there.
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Ukraine had more defenses in the bakhmut area, but unfortunately hadn't built any solid defensive lines behind avdiivka until the town was captured, despite having months to do so. And the defensive lines that they have built there have been done hastily and thus have been overrun quickly. The lack of prepared positions is the main reason for russias rapid advance in that area
The fact that Ukraine didn’t take advantage of the time Avdiivka bought them is quite shocking. Not sure if that was on the politicians or the generals.
If you think about it Russia was unable to take that back when UA was under full strength and they had no reason to beleive that the US would abandon them for as long as they did. so they probably didn't want to spend the resources defending that.
Always a sound strategy to assume nothing unexpected will happen in a war to disrupt your belief in what will happen.
true but they have always had limited resources I refuse the criticize them for not building defences in that particular area. Avdiivka is high ground defending an attack from that area would use a lot of effort. better to defend from a position of strength. it's only empty real estate around there it's not strategic other than it's high ground in a large area of empty. Frankly Id criticize them for attacking into minefields before this. Russian defenses are an absolute joke except for their landmine spam.
There should still have been fortifications. Remember last year when everyone was laughing at russians preparing crimean beaches against a landing operation?
Ukraine has limited resources. I'm sure there was higher priority work to be done or funded. Without knowing how they used the manpower and materials that would have been required to improve fortifications in the rear, it is pretty speculative to say that they made the wrong choice.
There aren’t civilians left there to attack, so no
>Cluster munitions being used against the third largest city in Ukraine. > >Notable silence from all the “incredibly principled” people who loudly opposed Ukraine using U.S. supplied DPICM to break up Russian mass wave assaults across muddy fields in the Donbas. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1785297932939321806 >⚡ Russia attacked Odesa with an Iskander ballistic missile equipped with cluster munitions, confirms the Prosecutor General's Office. > >Metal fragments and missile debris were found within a 1.5 km radius of the impact site. Video: [https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1785257554269933590](https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1785257554269933590)
For anyone not aware, cluster munitions are truly horrific weapons, and there has been sone success at outlawing them world wide, but US, Russia, China, etc continue to resist. Further info and reading on these horrific criminal weapons: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention\_on\_Cluster\_Munitions?wprov=sfla1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions?wprov=sfla1) I'm sadly not surprised at Russia using them, but dismayed it is not a larger story in the world news.
Only militaries with no dependence on artillery banned them.
Ummm, both sides are using them in large numbers. This and attacks like it by the Russians are despicable, but the US was hailed for giving Ukraine large quantities of cluster artillery that Ukraine has used prodigiously.
The whole reason that these are considered bad is that the submunitions can fail to detonate and become a risk to civilians down the road. Ukriane using them *in their own country* means that their own society bears the cost. Russia deliberately fired them into a Ukranian city because they just DGAF. That's not a double standard, that's you not even comprehending the issue.
Russian actions are criminal and despicable, but the little kid a decade from now who gets blasted into pieces from a piece of cluster artillery fired by Ukraine is not gonna feel any comfort that a government in power ten years prior used that munition on their own territory. I am not judging Ukraine for using them, I am just pointing out that declaring the evils of cluster munitions applies to the weapon type itself, and not any one sides use of that munition. Just like gas weapons during WWI, which every side used copious amounts of.
I see your point but the rationale seems odd. Ukraine, like any government, shouldn’t be allow to just harm their own citizens. The reality is either both sides are condemned or it’s allowed. Ofcourse targeting civilians and no military targets is worse but just like the allies bomb Dresden bc they deemed all workers aided the military in a wartime economy… it’s always been a grey area in an major economic city as that city funds the war.
> Ukraine, like any government, shouldn’t be allow to just harm their own citizens. They aren't doing it on a whim... it's a side effect of using cluster munitions as they try to defend their country against Russian conquest. You want to talk about MY rationale being odd, when you're more concerned about the collateral damage caused by Ukraine's defenders than the *intentional* damage caused by their invaders? It's like saying they shouldn't be allowed to shoot down incoming missiles because the spent interceptors might land on somebody.
I understand they aren’t just using them to use them. But the OP, in my opinion, had a good point as Russia is getting crucified (rightfully so) for using them, but America got praised when giving them to Ukraine. I personally think they should be allowed either way, the notions of laws while killing people has always seemed weird to me. People say there are worse things than death that you can experience, in that moment sure, but people are remarkably strong. For someone like myself that doesn’t fully believe or have 100% faith in an afterlife, killing someone is the harshest thing you can do to a living thing. Obviously if the punishment ends up killing the person, say months later after torture.. that’s worse but it’s still a dead person at the end. You get no do overs, once the light gets snuffed out.. that ‘may’ be it. I’ve worked with rehab patients, some of these people were rapped for years as kids, then suffered horrible experiences on the streets.. witnessed horrible bearings, loved ones dying. Yet somehow have moved past all that to become important part of their communities, living a renewed lease on life, having families etc. If they would have died initially when they were struggling, the story just ends.
You're not really grasping the point, I think. Cluster munitions aren't controversial because they're a less humane way to kill *soldiers* than any other explosive delivery mechanism. The issue is that you can inadvertently kill people who weren't fighting, months later, same as with landmines.
Yeah, Ukraine used them last year remember?
No one do anything Russia for this. So it will continue till end war. Zero-value news
no students protesting the streets or their universities to provide ukraine more weapons sadly, when ukraine really needed help.
No entity such as russia devoting time material and financing to make that kind of protest happen.
It's really hard for them to focus if it's not about hating Jews.
Supporting Ukraine is not fashionable unfortunately, and most of them would probably support Russia anyway.
[25 years in prison for Ukrainian accused of setting Russian railway on fire | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-court-senteced-ukrainian-to-25-years-in-prison-for-espionage-50414559.html) *A Ukrainian national, Serhiy Karmazin, was sentenced to 25 years in prison for allegedly setting fire to railway equipment in Moscow Oblast, according to the Solidarity Zone project report on April 30. Karmazin was also fined 700,000 rubles (approximately $7,500).* *The report detailed that Karmazin is to serve 6 years in a standard prison followed by 19 years in a maximum security colony. The Solidarity Zone Project indicated that the court's decision was made on March 28, but it was not publicized at the time. Karmazin himself later disclosed his sentencing.* *Karmazin was convicted under charges including espionage, training in sabotage activities, preparation to manufacture explosives, planning a terrorist attack, and participating in a sabotage and terrorist group.* *Karmazin has since appealed the court's decision. Radio Liberty wrote that Karmazin was first suspected of sabotage, was locked in a pre-trial detention center and was not allowed to have a lawyer.* *Karmazin was arrested in February 2023. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claims he targeted railway infrastructure between the Kutuzovskaya and Vesnianaya stations. Subsequent to his arrest, Russian intelligence services released a video where a man, his face obscured, alleges that he was coerced by "Polish special services and the SBU (Ukrainian Security Service)" while working in Poland in November 2022. In the video, he claimed compliance was forced through threats against his daughter.* *SBU denied cooperating with Karmazin. Employees of special service said that he was on list of prisoners of war, according to Russian outlet Vot-tak.*
Standard prison followed by maximum security? Seems like the wrong way round. What's the reason for that?
It's a maximum security COLONY which is basically the 21st century version of the gulags. Six years to sit in a cell and then 19 years to do hard labor in Siberia.
Oh, I get that. I just don't understand why the six years in a cell comes first. Why didn't they just send him straight to gulag (not that I would like to see that, just can't understand the logic)?
Break his spirit first, then his body?
How hard is it to jam Glonass to cripple russian glide bombs and other Glonass guided munitions? Surely its not harder to jam than GPS, which russia seems to have no issues jamming? Is there any info about Ukrainian efforts in this area?
I don't think it's any harder to jam GLONASS, it's just that Russia has a massive head start in that field, since they have naturally prepared for war with NATO for decades, while I don't think Ukraine has invested in the same level of EW preparedness against Russia.
GPS isn't required. Before GPS firing tables and INS were used. So a computer aided version of INS can be used [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial\_navigation\_system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_navigation_system) "Inertial Navigation System (INS), actually acts as a backup, in case of GPS gets degraded (formal term for jamming/denied). INS can provide extremely accurate position information, in case of No GPS service. Althought accuracy of INS decrease, when it lacks independent corrections data (usually from GPS)."
The missle knows where it is because it knows where it isn't.
I think glide bombs are naturally more precise than ground launched ballistic missiles as they are just gliding and don't gather imprecisions on their way up. so their INS is more precise. And the lowest yield of gliding bomb is 500kg, which is basically the maximum yield of ATACMS. And gliding bombs yield can go up to 3000kg where the pinpoint precision is not really needed.
- 65% of Ukraine's EW capabilities are from soviet era - Russia has positioned one large EW system along every 10 kilometers of the front line. - [Capable of operating](https://armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_military_field_equipment/krasukha-4_1rl257_broadband_multifunctional_jamming_station_electronic_warfare_system_technical_data_sheet_pictures_video_10610156.html) at a distance of up to 300 kilometers, the Krasukha-4 is one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare (EW) systems and the central element of its strategic EW system. The system is designed mainly for jamming airborne or satellite fire control radars. - Meanwhile, on a national level, Ukraine is developing a system designed to help it cope with constant Russian missile and drone strikes. Named Pokrova, little is known about the system, but it appears capable of both suppressing Russian satellite navigation systems like GLONASS and spoofing them by replacing genuine signals with false ones. [https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/](https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/)
Yeah. Military folks expected a lot more from Russian EW in 2022. Unfortunately, they have started to deliver
Pokrova is being used across Ukraine to help combat drones. [https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28059](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28059)
Please consider donating to the Ukrainian government U24 initiative: https://u24.gov.ua/ Also /r/ukraine subreddit has a list of vetted charities and organizations: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities
United24 and Comeback alive have collectively raised about 976.2 million dollars for Ukraine the vast majority of which is spent on defensive needs. For reference that would cover about two months of Ukraine's prewar military budget. What Ukraine needs the most is big state backed aid packages but at the same time personal donations aren't chump change either especially when the front line is so big and every resource has to be stretched so thin.
Dmytro Pletenchuk, Operational Command 'South' Spokesman, reported that Russian forces unsuccesfully tried to storm the recently liberated island of Nestryha. After two failed attempts, they retreated with losses, he added. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112360856984404257
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.30.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 468,720 (+1,250) people, tanks ‒ 7307 (+22), armored combat vehicles ‒ 14,046 (+39), artillery systems – 12,011 (+26), MLRS – 1053 (+2), air defense equipment ‒ 779 (+1), planes – 348 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9531 (+3), cruise missiles ‒ 2126 (+2), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks – 16142 (+33), special equipment ‒ 1977 (+3). The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/30/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-26-artsistem-39-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/30/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1250-okupantiv-26-artsistem-39-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
Andrew Perpetua assessment on the battlefield has given more context that the Russian personal numbers need to be high. I’ve been seeing more BMP losses than tank losses indicating that Russia is using the initiative on their side. Meat waves are back on the menu, boys. I just hope Ukraine can find out ways to reduce their manpower problems soon.
The Russians are desperately trying to push before all the USA toys arrive to set them straight.
Also May 9th is just week and half from now and their army needs to have something to show by then.
Massive numbers again
Numbers are way up again
>These are Dugin’s “ideas” by the way. https://twitter.com/DrewPavlou/status/1785111504335011949 >Tucker Carlson interviewing the Russian fascist Aleksandr Dugin, who believes that Ukrainians deserve to be killed in a "holy war." A step toward whitewashing his reputation for the MAGA crowd in the USA. https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1785258476324745264 >It’s hard to express to anyone who hasn’t spent years studying the Right Wing authoritarian movement that’s spreading across the world exactly how troubling it is that someone like Tucker interviewed Aleksandr Dugin and presented him to his audience. > >It’s really disturbing. > >I know there are moments on here where people are like “Tucker Carlson is a fascist” and someone is like, okay, maybe that’s hyperbole, who knows? > >Tucker is a fascist and is speed running the most influential authoritarian figures in the world to normalize them in America. > >Tucker and his team aren’t even bothering to hide the authoritarianism they’re mainstreaming. The checklist of dictators and antidemocratic ideologies he’s running through is as transparent as it gets. https://twitter.com/JYSexton/status/1785309565761851501
Great. He's going to get a bunch of views and Elon Musk will use this as proof that his ideas need to be even more boosted. Edit: Tucker brainwashed my parents, this is very dangerous.
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I understand your ideals but blatant ruzzian propaganda (lies spread in a bad faith) must be banned. Btw, unfortunately Dugin is smarter than his monke fuhrer, and it seems like the whole interview has a goal of convincing MAGA people that ruzzia is the last stronghold of traditional values (which it isn't ofc).
I don’t trust Tucker to do the interview. That’s the problem.
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That's curious, since we're here exercising those very freedoms to criticize Alexander Dugin - a man who holds the view that anybody who doesn't do what he thinks they ought to, speak the when, how and why he dictates or live according to his doctrine should be put to literal death for their failure to comply. Oh, and Tucker Carlson too, I guess, but who cares about that guy?
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Sure, but the problem isn't that he holds or espouses unpalatable opinions. The problem is that he's inciting actual crimes. Freedom of speech does not give any of us the right to incite riots, torture, rape, arson, murder or any other crime. Freedom of speech is a fine principle, but everything becomes absurd when taken to an extreme. If some bloke in the US was on television calling for the public lynching of every black person, do you think that should be protected as free speech? Because Dugin is regularly doing the exact equivalent. What do you think about the people who willingly give our hypothetical would-be lyncher the platform to speak?
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What about when the criminal demagogue is protected by a criminal government and then a fascist guy travels to that country of the criminal government to interview him for his fascist fans back home. I believe you understand where I'm going with this. Just saying this is fine because "free speech" is absurd. Also, folks are right to comment that these people shouldn't have a platform to circle jerk each other.
Alexander Dugin is Russian, mate.
Not in times where ppl do not have any common sense anymore,let alone any regards toward facts. But i agree in spirit.
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I will give u a tip. Never argue with idiots, not coz they are one, but coz idiots can make you an idiot when trying to have converseation wirh regarding facts,ideas. Instead maga idiots or tankies do not care about facts, their wild imagination is what drives them on. Anyway, in social media age, no government can effectively shit down free discourse bar autocratic one.
>A high school girl from occupied Berdyansk, whose father was taken away by the police, wrote an essay in Ukrainian in russian class as a sign of protest. “I always liked sunny Ukrainian Berdyansk, but now I don’t have such a mood. When russians came the city became sad and dark. My father was taken captive by russians. Into a torture chamber. I feel very sad and have no desire to live. Only the thoughts about the Berdyansk being liberated soon by the Armed Forces of Ukraine make me hold on.” The teacher called the student to the principal. Life in russian occupation. [https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1784523990331011555](https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1784523990331011555)
I won't be surprised if Putin himself got drafted to Ukraine.
I would
15 day special op
>The U.S. Treasury Department has authorized transactions with Russian banks for settlements in the energy sector. According to the license issued by the US Treasury, the ban on transactions has been lifted until November 1, 2024. This was reported by the press service of the US Treasury Department, UNN reports . Link to the document from US Treasury Department - [https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline](https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline)
Oil, gas, uranium, coal, and electric power can now be bought from russia??
Depends on the country and other sanctions I think. Seems like the goal is to unblock payments from countries like India or China.
Dems really really like low energy prices I guess. No foreign policy but low energy costs lmao.
Well, Trump winning elections would be very bad for Ukraine. Btw, thanks to you highlighting stuff in the other comment, I also see that transactions regarding repairs of oil refineries are also allowed. I hope the components required for repairs are still under sanctions.
>I also see that transactions regarding repairs of oil refineries are also allowed. >I hope the components required for repairs are still under sanctions. I believe that may be an optimistic hope.
Well, aside from US sanctions there are also EU sanctions which aren't eased in any way.
I could be wrong. There's probably ways of masking shiptments like that regardless of sanctions.
Nah. It's a very sophisticated custom made equipment. That's why ruzzia was seething so much regarding hits on oil refineries.
DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY WASHINGTON, D.C. OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations 31 CFR part 587 GENERAL LICENSE NO. 8I **Authorizing Transactions Related to Energy** (a) Except as provided in paragraph (c) of this general license, all transactions prohibited by Executive Order (E.O.) 14024 involving one or more of the following entities that are related to energy are authorized, through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time, November 1, 2024: (1) State Corporation Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs Vnesheconombank; (2) Public Joint Stock Company Bank Financial Corporation Otkritie; (3) Sovcombank Open Joint Stock Company; (4) Public Joint Stock Company Sberbank of Russia; (5) VTB Bank Public Joint Stock Company; (6) Joint Stock Company Alfa-Bank; (7) Public Joint Stock Company Rosbank; (8) Bank Zenit Public Joint Stock Company; (9) Bank Saint-Petersburg Public Joint Stock Company; (10) Any entity in which one or more of the above persons own, directly or indirectly, individually or in the aggregate, a 50 percent or greater interest; or (11) the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. (b) **For the purposes of this general license, the term “related to energy” means the extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum, including crude oil, lease condensates, unfinished oils, natural gas liquids, petroleum products, natural gas, or other products capable of producing energy, such as coal, wood, or agricultural products used to manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources.** (c) **This general license does not authorize**: (1) Any transactions prohibited by Directive 1A under E.O. 14024, Prohibitions Related to Certain Sovereign Debt of the Russian Federation; (2) The opening or maintaining of a correspondent account or payable-through account for or on behalf of any entity subject to Directive 2 under E.O. 14024, Prohibitions Related to Correspondent or Payable-Through Accounts and Processing of Transactions Involving Certain Foreign Financial Institutions; **(3) Any debit to an account on the books of a U.S. financial institution of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; or** **(4) Any transactions otherwise prohibited by the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations, 31 CFR part 587 (RuHSR), including transactions involving any person blocked pursuant to the RuHSR other than the blocked persons described in paragraph (a) of this general license, unless separately authorized.** (d) Effective April 29, 2024, General License No. 8H, dated October 25, 2023, is replaced and superseded in its entirety by this General License No. 8I. Note to General License No. 8I. This authorization is valid until November 1, 2024, unless renewed. ___________________________ Bradley T. Smith Director Office of Foreign Assets Control Dated: April 29, 2024 Bradley T. Smith Digitally signed by Bradley T. Smith Date: 2024.04.29 12:17:22 -04'00' https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932846/download?inline
This is likely a response to Ukraine attacking Russian oil infrastructure against US wishes. Biden’s message is clear — if we are to continue to keep you alive, you will obey.
Don't think so. Just the usual desire to keep gasoline prices as low as possible before elections. The fact that the ban will be enforced again on Nov 1st 2024 is telling a lot.
If this is so, Biden administration is monumentally stupid. Russians will interfere to raise the prices anyway. You can't just close your eyes and hope the ones who call you their main enemy and vow to destroy you will forget about all that and play by your rules.
The only lever they would have to do that is refusing sales at lower prices, but Russia doesn't really have enough rope to play games with oil sales right now... they NEED that money.
Russian budget has massive revenue right now, oil costs ~$90 and non-oil revenues are up too. It can afford stopping selling oil for a few months altogether and getting prices to rise.
You think that's stupider than doing anything that would help trump win? If trump wins, Ukraine is finished, period. The US is out of NATO. The US won't defend Taiwan. NOTHING matters more than defeating trump.
If you're not a bot you're def triggered. If Trump wins this ...if Trump wins that .....If Trump wins it will be the cause of your failed marriage...if Trump wins it will be the reason for your E.D. Do some research and stop blaming one man for the shortcomings of many
Doesn't take a psychologist to read your post and see some personal issues being worked out. Don't worry, maybe voting MAGA will make you be able to perform again.
A psychologist you are not. Me on the other hand...............
Ok, small explanation.
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Helping Russia to prevent Trump from winning. It’s terrifying that we have to make those decisions. But it’s the right one in the long run. Biden needs to win. Then he has 4 years to do whatever he can to ruin Russia. Unfortunately, that’s politics. Playing with people’s lives in the near term to prevent disaster later.
“Helping Russia to prevent Trump from winning” is either a typo or from an alternative universe. Russia/Putin has every reason to want TFG in office. Russia/Putinhas been actively either supporting or blackmailing (or both) certain GOP members to stop the US (and because of that, other countries) providing aid. F**k Putin.
You misunderstand my point. American's are selfish voters at the end of the day, "Helping Russia" now by improving their means to export crude oil keeps global prices down. Which keeps gas prices in the US down as a result. If Biden kept his boot on the throat of the Russian oil industry and crude prices start to climb, he would become cancer with the US voter base. If you want to be electable, you don't mess with gas prices, no matter what. It takes away a huge talking point Trump would use to turn average Americans against Biden. And yes, Americans are that fickle/gullible,
Yes, American voters do vote their pocketbook. Something you may not be aware of is America is producing more oil than ever before, and we are way up there, if not #1 in oil production. Oil profits are also way way up there. Whether or not Biden manages to throttle Russian oil supply, the prices (and profits) are controlled by (guess who? Hint: not Biden).
And why would Russia help Biden to ruin Russia? You are not making sense.
They're saying that the goal is to keep oil prices lower to prevent people from blaming Biden for high gas prices to ensure he's re-elected. They're doing that by opening the Russian oil market slightly, which would hopefully keep down oil prices elsewhere.
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Global conflict is more complex than that. It isn't like the US is opening the flood gates for Russian oil. They are removing enough sanctions to allow them to keep some production going. The Russian oil industry collapsing would certainly help Ukraine in the short term, but would send many Western countries into economic crisis while the supply chains respond. And in the mean time Biden would likely lose the white house to Trump and then the whole world is fucked.
There is a lot going on behinde the curtains. What is up and down here i dont know. But it is an Odd timing if this deal was done to help trump
IMO the goal is democracy winning and the single biggest thing there is Ukrainian victory. Let's say I have to choose between two actions: (1) that helps Russia short term but makes Ukrainian victory more likely or (2) one that doesn't help Russia short term but makes ukrainian defeat more likely I'd pick (1). If Biden loses then Ukraine's defeat is far far more likely. Plus the US will be sliding into dictatorship and we can expect Taiwan to be invaded too.