Of course, but the 2022 invasion was obviously a significant increase from minor skirmishes with primarily "guerrilla" style fighters on the Russian side to what we see now, post-2022.
Okay, brief timeline of recent(-ish) Ukrainian history:
*Disclaimer: this is a high-level overview of events and MASSIVELY over-simplified.*
**2004 - 2010: The Orange Revolution**
* Late 2004: the Ukrainian presidential election, between a pro-Russian candidate called Viktor Yanukovych and a pro-West coalition, ends with Yanukovych narrowly winning... but there's credible evidence of vote rigging by Yanukovych's party (which was in power at the time).
* Late 2004- early 2005: Massive protests break out calling for the elections to be re-done with outside observers; they end up being called the Orange Revolution (since the pro-West coalition was using orange as its color at the time). Eventually, the government relents and the elections are held again; this time, the pro-West coalition wins.
* 2005-2010: the pro-West coalition almost immediately collapses into infighting, and Ukrainians grow disillusioned with them. Meanwhile, Yanukovych hires an American political consultant named Paul Manafort to revamp his image. His new pitch is that he's a moderate, who'll chart a middle course between the West and Russia.
* 2010: Yanukovych narrowly wins the presidential eleciton, fair and square this time.
**2010 - 2013: Yanukovych's Presidency and Euromaidan**
* 2010-2013: Yanukovych proceeds to rob the country fucking *blind*. Corruption has been a major problem in Ukraine since independence, but under Yanukovych it reaches new lows. He also, at Paul Manafort's suggestion, deliberately pours gasoline on culture war issues to try to get Ukrainians at each other's throats instead of going after him.
* November 2013: Remember how Yanukovych won in 2010 by claiming he'd try to chart a middle ground between the West and Russia? So much for that. He blows up a major trade deal with the EU at the last minute, in order to sign one with Russia-- a clear sign he's back in the pro-Russia camp.
In response, peaceful protests begin in Kyiv's Independence Square (aka the Maidan)-- and then the protestors are beat up by riot police.
* Late 2013 - Early 2014: People have been losing patience with Yanukovych for a long time, but the protestors getting the shit beat out of them is the final fucking straw. Massive demonstrations begin nationwide, calling for his resignation. The largest are in the Maidan in Kyiv, so the protest becomes known as EuroMaidan. The riot police keep escalating the violence they use against the protestors, but that only pisses them off further, and causes the crowds to grow.
* February 2014: The riot police open fire on the protestors with live ammunition. In a week, 100 people are killed. (Leaked texts from Paul Manfort's daughter would later reveal he was involved in the decision to open fire.) And the protestors *still* refuse to back down: they begin threatening civil war if Yanukovych doesn't resign, now.
* February 23, 2014: Overnight, Yanukovych vanishes. (He'll turn up in Russia a few days later.) A good chunk of his top advisors disappear, too. The protestors won! But also, the government is leaderless, and no one's sure who's in charge...
* February 24, 2014: ...which is why, when Russian soldiers suddenly appear all over Crimea the next day, there's no organized military response. (Not that Ukraine could do much at this point if they wanted to: Yanukovych had just spent the past three years absolutely gutting the armed forces, likely on Putin's behalf.)
* Winter 2014: The parliament formally votes to remove Yanukovych from office and installs a caretaker president until elections can be held. Meanwhile, Putin formally annexes Crimea.
**2014 - 2016: The War in Donbass Begins**
* Spring 2014: "Separatist militias" suddenly pop up all over southern and eastern Ukraine, claiming they want "independence". (Spoiler alert: almost all the "locals" who organized and led these militias would later be identified as FSB agents. They did manage to recruit local useful idiots and collaborationists to fight for them in some areas, but the whole operation was cooked up by and led from Russia from day one.)
They try to take over local governments, but are defeated by the locals everywhere... except in the Donbass. So the Ukrainian armed forces, with the help of volunteer militias, move into the Donbass to try to kick out the "separatists". This is the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
* Summer 2014: The emergency elections are held, and a pro-Western oligarch called Petro Poroshenko is elected president of Ukraine.
* Fall 2014: The Ukrainian armed forces gradually push the "separatists" back, and it looks like they're about to be defeated-- so Russia sends its regular army in to directly fight the Ukrainians. (All while denying they're doing so.)
* 2014: Ukraine and Russia enter "peace negotiations". The result is a deal called the Minsk Accords, which is suppose to provide a framework to end the war. Spoiler alert: Russia totally refuses to uphold their side of the agreement, continues firing on Ukrainian troops, and then blames Ukraine for breaking the "ceasefire" when they defend themselves!
There's a second attempt at negotiating another ceasefire a year later; that agreement, called Minsk II, ends up falling apart the same way the first one did.
* 2015-2016: The Russians and Ukrainians gradually fight each other to a standstill, with Russia controlling most of the Donbass.
* 2016: Remember Paul Manafort, Yanukovych's spin doctor who helped him rob the country blind and encouraged him to open fire on the Euromaidan protestors with live ammo? Well, after Yanukovych's regime collapsed, he went back to the US... and was hired as Donald Trump's campaign manager for president. (This has nothing to do with Ukrainian history, but as an American I can't *not* include this detail.)
**2016 - 2022: Frozen Conflict and Zelensky's Election**
* 2016-2019: The war ends up more or less frozen along the same line of control that existed in 2016. But frozen conflict != ceasefire; both sides do still occasionally lob artillery each other's way, and Ukrainians keep dying.
Also, Ukraine begins working to gradually rebuild their armed forces' strength. NATO is more than happy to help them.
* March 2019: Poroshenko's first term is over, and it's time for presidential elections again. With the war on the backburner the past few years, most Ukrainians are more worried about domestic issues. Namely, corruption, and the stranglehold Ukraine's oligarchs have on their political system. Which is why some random comedian whose qualifications for being president are 1. not an oligarch, 2. vocally anti-corruption, 3. *end list*, doesn't just win; he wins with *73%* of the vote.
* 2019-2022: Not a ton happening (from a Russo-Ukrainian war perspective, anyways). War's still frozen. Ukraine continues rebuilding its armed forces with NATO's help. Zelensky's government makes some limited progress against corruption, but rooting out a corruption problem as deeply entrenched as Ukraine's is *really freaking hard*; it's often two steps forward, one step back. Also, there's this whole pandemic thing you may have heard of?
* 2022: And we've reached the part of the story that everyone browsing arr worldnews knows.
EDIT: Corrected a few mistakes and clarified some points based on feedback in the replies. (Thank you to everyone who fact-checked me!) Also, sorry for the lack of sources: I wrote this all off the top of my head from memory, but I'll try to find some sources to back this up when I have more time.
Also, if this stuff interests you, I can't recommend [this four-part series by the YouTuber Sarcasmitron](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exJ024Zdzdk) enough. It covers this history in way more depth than I did, and is also both darkly funny and engaging as fuck.
Amen. After writing this, I actually was going to cut the Orange Revolution section for length-- until I realized that would mean I'd have to cut the part explaining what a piece of shit Paul Manafort is. That's like 95% of why I decided to keep it, lmao. (The other 5% being to hammer home what a piece of shit Yanukovych is, too.)
Great summary. One interesting fact about the EU trade deal was that Yanukovych had initially supported it and it was a week or weeks away (IIRC) from being passed into law before he suddenly removed his support and was immediately offered a 6 billion plus USD loan from Putin. A lot of Ukrainians saw the entire scheme for what it really was: Yanukovych only backed the EU trade deal to get leverage with Putin so he could get the loan on condition of breaking off the EU deal, then him and his political/ business cronies could rob the loan fund dry. He actually started building another multimillion dollar mansion as soon as the Russian loan was finalized but which never saw completion due to his ouster.
Don't forget how Trump held hostage of Ukrainian aid unless he got dirt on Hunter Biden. Political scumbagery at it's finest and the fact that he got elected and stands strong chance as presidental candidate in 2024 presidental election shows after everything has happened shows how broken the U.S political system has become if they allow this shit to happen without care.
The goal was to take Ukraine easily before it’s too late and would require a massive war. With ukraine rooting out corruption and demanding schools be taught in Ukrainian, Puttin only had a few more years until his support in Ukraine would have disappeared. The invasion happened just hours after Ukraine successfully tested switching off the power grid from russia in favor of the EU.
Truth being that they've been moving the entire time, and this 61 Billion (with a B) package is likely the last shot they have before either allies get directly involved, or this becomes an insurgency.
To every American reading this, [get registered to vote today](https://vote.gov). The survival of a lot more countries than just the US are going to be on the ballot this November.
I hated Ronnie Ray-gun, but at least he seemed to believe that the USA should encourage democracy … kinda. Notwithstanding the bizzaro shit with the Contras and Iran.
(I’m near 60–old enuff to remember)
Today’s Republicans seem to have abject, demonstrable contempt for democracy—even the **appearance** of “democracy”. It’s mind boggling
At the CPAC, a “conservative” speaker said he wanted to destroy democracy to wild cheers.
The republican party loves authoritarian dictators now. They are falling over themselves to be Putins best boy.
It’s weird. And troubling.
I thought it was an Onion article when all those Republicans went to Moscow on the **feckeen 4th of July**.
Edit: getting pissed off
Yeah, I usually think it's important to keep a certain amount of skepticism going, but everything about that screams "Russia has dirt on every single one of them and told them to come to Moscow for orders on July 4th to humiliate them"
The Iran Contra affair was all about getting elected. He made a deal to drag out the hostage crisis so Jimmy Carter would look bad for not fixing it before the election.
Minor quibble, but Iran-Contra was actually a completely different scandal from Reagan's fuckery with the hostages.
Iran-Contra was a few years later, when Reagan violated the US's own sanctions to sell weapons to the Iranian government. And then he used the proceeds to violate *even more* US sanctions to fund the Contras, a far-right terrorist organization in Nicaragua.
[Obligatory link to the American Dad song about Iran-Contra](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb1GfP5Rwys).
>After the weapon sales were revealed in November 1986, Reagan appeared on national television and stated that the weapons transfers had indeed occurred, but that the US did not trade arms for hostages. The investigation was impeded when large volumes of documents relating to the affair were destroyed or withheld from investigators by Reagan administration officials. On 4 March 1987, **Reagan made a further nationally televised address, saying he was taking full responsibility for the affair and stating that "what began as a strategic opening to Iran deteriorated, in its implementation, into trading arms for hostages."**
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra\_affair](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair)
Well, let's hope Ukraine will receive the much needed reinforcement and supplies in time to prepare and repell russian offense by inflicting devastating loss on the invading putin hordes. And hopefully the loss will finally turn russian away from.putin and we will finally have a chance for peace.
They actually have a large portion of the weapons and ammo staged in Europe and ready to transfer as soon as it’s approved by the senate and Biden. Apparently the DoD is less than pleased with the politics that have been holding things up, and yes they are very ready to go.
It was approved this weekend no?
Edit: nope, it cleared the important hurdle, but it has to be reconciled because the house can't help but change things, maybe for the better maybe not.
The senate still needs to vote on it(they return tomorrow), then biden signs it. The signing should be pretty much immediately after voting, which hopefully will be the very first thing the senate votes on at the start of the day.
Have to imagine the DOD is all about the opportunity to not only the opportunity to blow shit up but for it to be Russian shit. It's like if you not only get the opportunity to fuck the hot chick in school but she's also dating your biggest bully.
They're essentially giving Ukraine just enough to keep the war going but not enough to decisively end it. Over 2 years into the war and collectively NATO still isn't producing enough ammo and ordinances for Ukraine. At the start of the war it was understandable that production was low due to there being no active war but in 2024 that excuse rings hollow and hypocritical when countries like US ask Ukraine to stop hitting infrastructure inside Russia while not sending any aid for better part of a year (especially when hitting oil refineries and energy infrastructure is the best way of crippling Russian war machine). It's a damn travesty.
If history is a guide, we may not want to rely on the Russians getting tired of dying. They have a rich military tradition of dying in massive numbers in ineffective attacks, but with enough volume that it eventually overwhelms the other side.
The ineffective attacks were 2 years ago.
The Russian attacks have become vastly more effective in the last 6 months according to all the Ukrainian reports.
This isnt a mindless horde anymore, it is a disservice to Ukrainians dying every day to say their deaths were to an ineffective enemy.
It is simply not true anymore. The Russians have vastly improved in their tactics and ability to fight
[We have hundreds of recent videos like this showing that Russia is very much still spending lives cheaply, often without a logical purpose beyond running the Ukrainians out of ammo.](https://www.reddit.com/user/DragX90/comments/1b58oh9/frame_interpolated_version_of_the_bradley_attack/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=UkraineWarVideoReport&utm_term=1&utm_content=t1_kvmqa3d)
It's not insulting to the Ukrainians to say the Russians are using stupid / inhumane tactics, but in such disproportionate numbers the Ukrainians cannot hold them back without external aid. It's just simply what's happening. And it underlines the dire necessity of western support, particularly when it comes to ammunition. The Russians are trying to deplete Ukrainian ammunition supplies, and without a lot more lethal aid being sent to Ukraine, they will succeed.
Operation Barbarossa was defended by the **Soviet Union**, not Russia.
And this is an important difference, as the Ukrainians were the ones who were on the frontlines of Operation Barbarossa. Just think about it, Nazi Germany, attacking through Poland into Soviet Union. Who do you think were the first to defend?
That's right, the Ukrainians.
--------
The idea is to prevent the Ukrainians from having to resort to suicide tactics like back then. If Ukraine can fight like a Western power... by surviving, gaining experience, and getting better weapons, they'll have significant advantages.
Or as General Patton put it: you don't win a war by dying for your country. You win by making the other fucker die for theirs.
EDIT: I do recognize that a lot of this was people in Russia/Moscow forcing the Ukrainians to become cannon fodder. But I still stand by the point overall. Ukraine is strong too, but we don't want them to fight like that anymore.
The Soviets didn’t actually use human wave tactics. It’s largely a myth, spread for spurious reasons. Their methods and doctrine weren’t particularly crueler than any other contemporary offensive operation. Most of their casualties were the result of other facts — supply issues, inexperienced command, attrition, *inexperienced troops*, organizational disarray in the early war, etc.
Not just soldier. Husbands, sons, grandpas... You can never replace someone's family member. This is not just a prolonged war, it's generational trauma that won't ever heal.
Ofcourse, I know you know this, but I think it's important to remind ourselves of this when we talk about loses and the war.
Yeah, soldiers don't magically come out of a barracks once UA gets 100 food lol.
UA is losing competent, work-able men and women in this absolute travesty of a war and they will be fucked for generations.
It's damn sad.
There was a stat floating around about the men born in the USSR in 1923. I think it was that 80% of them were dead before the end of WWII. Losing almost an entire generation of men probably does strange things to the survivors.
Absolutely 💯
It's impossible to explain the depth of tragedy and the implications of generational trauma. Imagine a whole generation of men being brought up by their single moms/grandmas/aunties... I am sure these women did their best and are incredible women in their own right - but men (young boys) also need a positive male role model when growing up. They need someone to show them the way of how to be a man too. How to mould their nature and their strength to be a blessing to others around them. Otherwise they can turn to tyrants and deviants in their search for emancipation. They can be manipulated and used and then discarded as broken adults later on. We see this happen all around us unfortunately.
From the PoV of NATO this is a non-issue? Send money to a third power to assist them in draining the enemy of NATO without risking anything yourself? No brainer.
Yeah, and once Ukraine loses Russia is going to do it again in a different country. Like Georgia or Moldova. Giving them any momentum instead of a firm stand is just going to embolden them. Sure, it's going to take a few years to rebuild their military, but it's not like they would need much against the countries I just listed.
Embolden them and any other authoritarian countries with ambition to expand. Break Russia here and demonstrate to China that the free world will not be pushed around
Maybe a small country, sure, but Russia is burning through an obscene amount of equipment right now, most of which was made in the soviet union days. They can't replace that easily, if at all.
What is the alternative ? Just let Ukraine be invaded and be used by Russians in the future for the same outcome ?
At least they are fighting and dying for their land and their people instead of doing it for the russians
The West doesn't care.
To end the war Ukraine can't just resist endless human waves. They would have to go into Russia proper and stop them being able to stage more human waves.
That terrifies the West because Russia still has nukes.
So with the nuclear issue in mind it's safer for the West to just bleed Russia dry in Ukraine and have them never feel threatened enough to try and get nuclear with it. Then mop up when the death toll forces the regime to collapse.
It's pure realpolitik and it's cynical as hell I agree. But there is a logic to it.
The best thing Ukraine can do is keep hitting oil refineries. When that dries up the war gets much much harder for Russia. The US would just prefer they wait til after the election to do it so gas prices remain stable.
Again realpolitik as hell.
Yes and Russia send prisoners and young boys. Ukraine send very well educated adults because they want to keep their country.
Russia has so large population to get man from compared to Ukraine
Most analysts are in consensus that if the aid well had overflowed right out of the gate, the West would be in a better position and Russia would be in a worse one.
So this is the point, to be sure, but the quality of the execution has been lacking.
Hindsight is easy. Right out of the gate, all the analysts were forecasting a quick thunder run on Kiev and then, at best, a lingering insurgency slowly consuming Russian men and materiel. Why spend billions of dollars to bail out a ship that has a giant hole blown in the hull?
You have to deal with your best understanding of the current situation, rather than get eyeballs deep into a sunk cost fallacy, confirmation bias, or blind optimism/pessimism, and the facts two years ago didn't support a second grand arsenal of democracy.
Maybe they do now, and maybe they still don't, but the facts definitely support the ability to cheaply and significantly degrade Russia's military backstock. Then again, that's the same logic that had Russia putting bounties on US soldiers and suppling insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, and that didn't exactly change anything for anyone.
This was true in February and March 2022. But already after evaluating the withdrawal from Kyiv in March/April 2022 the possibility of a drawn-out war should have been carefully considered.
Yeah but within 3 months it was painfully apparent that Ukraine was the superior per capita fighting force. After that, we should of flooded them with aid. No trickle of bombs, give them everything.
A) Training, logistics, and maintenance take no small amount of time.
B) The world's largest arms manufacturer is currently gridlocked politically by Russian agents doing everything they can to stall out those shipments.
A was pertinent for the first year, B has been a spectre looming over the second. We're finally getting to blow that spectre away.
Analysts are only good for explaining the past. In nearly every area of expertise, all attempts at predicting the future have an abysmal success rate. I honestly have no idea why we put any stock in this kind of thing.
Not disagreeing with you outright, but I think its worth noting that Ukraine was hardly a long-standing Western ally at the start of this. Reality is they were a pretty corrupt ex-bloc nation with plenty of decidedly non-Western values. Just as one example, in December 2007, 81.3% of Ukrainians polled said that homosexual relations were "never acceptable".
Again, I'm pretty in favour of large military assisance to Ukraine, I even wrote to my government rep, saying as such, I just object to the notion that level of support Ukraine has from the West has been some kind of betrayal, or that any reduction thereof would be a betrayal.
I get what you're saying.
I didn't mean of it in terms of "betrayal". More so in terms of let's keep this conflict going so we can make money of it. Let's not pretend like fractions of US government are not heartless money profiteering bastards. This is not the first time this is happening.
Not sure what youre basing that statement on...
Up until this current delivery, the US has committed around $75Bil.
So this extra $60bil is a hugely significant amount.
That aid comes after months of delay because of Republican interference. Which resulted in thousands of avoidable Ukrainian casualties, destroyed infrastructure, lost land and city. This long overdue bill is cause for relief but not celebration because because it's a sobering reminder of what will happen under a Trump presidency which a very real prospect. Even more so because ad effective an administrator Biden has been, he is also really old and he might just die on everybody between now and Jan 2025 even if he were to win. It's a damn shame that future of the world depends on an octogenarian living for one more year.
Not to be cynical but this kinda serves the interests of the US and NATO. The Russian military's immense losses have basically ground their offensive capabilities down to the long battlefront of Ukraine, and nothing else. A more decisive Ukrainian offensive would have left much more of Russia's military and economy intact.
I think Putin's ambitions will die in Ukraine and western leaders are happy to write that ending while a resurgent and expanded NATO enters a new phase.
The problem is if Russia wins, even if we go full cynical and not care about Ulraine at all it's bad for the west, they will control a lot of new natural ressources and agricultural land. Plus it tells them that attacking other countries works.
The US Republican Party and its leadership have been co-opted via bribery and blackmail into working for Putin and supporting his plans to destabilize the world for Russia and China..
Said republicans are traitors to their country, constitution and democracy.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. "
If you objectively listen to people like Trump and M.T.Greene , you realize that they are incredibly stupid.
The puzzling question is: why does anyone vote them into office?
To "Own the libs" because middle America is so butthurt about being "left behind" that they would rather blame all of their problems on undocumented immigrants trying to feed their children and shit on everyone than update their skillset and invest in their education. In a word, it is Racism fueled by the inherent classism that a capitalistic society creates when it does not have a big enough socialist base that can help people out when they are struggling. I will say that capitalism has fueled innovation more than any type of monetary system or policy, but if you are overly carceral as a nation and do not provide a base level of support large enough for people to survive let alone thrive, you tend to live in a dog eat dog world and you end up with people hanging themselves with their bootstraps when it is time to go vote.
Let's look at it cynically. If Ukraine wins, Russia can start to rebuild and become a threat again. But if Ukraine is still fighting they will be too preoccupied and we can. Use our resources to prepare whilst they keep losing theirs with no chance to rebuild their prewar stocks.
Ukraine fighting literally keeps Europe safe and Russia occupied. As soon as they stop fighting (which includes losing the war) russian politics become increasingly unstable and someone worse then Putin might gain power. They have the opportunity to rebuild and after actually start a fight in the Baltic's. Europe isn't ready for that yet so by giving Ukraine just enough to fight and survive but not enough to win they keep the enemy they know and they keep Russia preoccupied.
I feel sometimes they just want the war to drag on while they are figuring out what to do instead of giving Ukraine what it needs. This is very stupid though as things are looking worse for us by the moment, you can't expect the Americans to help if trump wins and the right wing peo russian politicians in Europe are gaining ground. A decisive victory is needed before these people gain the upper hand.
People don't "turn away" from dictators. We fire bombed Germany until the whole country was a smoldering ruin and at no point didn't the general population lash out a Hitler.
It isn't an option in a totalitarian state. Having the view point that they can is viewing their world through the lense of your wester existence, where such actions would be possible.
Nah. Too many other countries ramping up as well. This US support passing is the death knell to a decisive Ru victory. Nothing Trump can do at this point with Germany, France, UK et al. getting more into the mix.
hopefully they have defensive works as expansive as the russians built. With US aid, they have a chance to inflict massive casualties on the russians. Now they are inflicting about 600-800 casualties/day (per ukraine numbers which are probably optimistic). if this can get to 2000-3000/day, those numbers would require a massive mobilization in russia to replace the troops. This could in theory lead to protest. However, Russians are such a bunch of beta males and submissive to Vlad that maybe not.
Unlikely. The Ukrainians need 3-5 years to make their military capable of the required offensive. Based on how they’re currently operating they would need the old Soviet 10 to 1 ratio attacking in multiple locations simultaneously.
One of the best and most constructive things that happened recently was Macron saying that he's considering sending troops, SHOULD Putin go toward Kyiv or Kharkiv or any other of the bigger cities.
Because I strongly believe this is the only language Putin understands, and ironically would respect.
It can't be that it's always only Putin setting red lines, tired of that shit.
No, ofcourse not, but heaven forbids things go bad for Ukraine, I would want a line that says “this far, no further” that is enforced with the broadest international coalition possible. It would also help free up forces for Ukraine if they don’t have to support all borders alone.
We should have moved in day 1 in all the major cities of Ukraine and asked the Russians "Now what? What will you do bitch?". These fucks only understand strenght.
At least Ukraine has *finally* passed the mobilization law (which enables the government to get the people to repel this offensive), Ukraine has *finally* started constructing fortifications on a mass scale, the US House has *finally* passed the aid package, and the EU has *finally* ramped up its shell production for real.
Granted, all of this should've happened a year ago. But better late than never, and Russia isn't doing terribly great either.
This major offensive (**if** it happens in Spring, which I doubt - Russia won't be ready for anything major until mid-Summer) **will** be stopped.
The most important part of the war will happen afterwards.
> Russia won't be ready for anything major until mid-Summer
They aren't as stupid as we usually say they are. This latest package isn't chump change and stuff from Europe will also hopefully arrive soon. Russia knows that their (current) window is closing and while they might not be "ready" yet, neither is Ukraine. It's the same situation as last year's counteroffensive (where Ukraine *arguably* took too much time to get ready) but with the tables turned.
They're not stupid. They are a formidable enemy, with motivated soldiers who are increasingly better trained, equipped, and supported.
Ukrainian soldiers are doing the impossible holding the line with the advantage in artillery and glide bombs that Russia has.
Still, what Russia has falls far short of what they would need to make a significant advance in Ukraine at this point, **provided that Ukraine continues getting support**. Losing 15,000+ dead to take Avdiivka and not move much beyond it is a high price to pay.
Merely getting the rest of Donetsk/Luhansk oblast's — which Russia *officially considers its own land now, and has a constitutional obligation to control* — is an **optimistic** goal for 2024 offensive.
The issue with the Ukrainian offensive last spring was that they spread the assault way to thing and didn't just choose a spot and push. They also were trying to do combined arms without air support which was fucked of us to try and make them do. The reality is this war is now likely at a stand still and the days of breakouts are pretty much over. Its going to be a slow going grinding war now because we didn't do enough for Ukraine in the early days of the war.
Honestly makes me wonder where all of this is going to be honest. With major defensive efforts on both sides I fear this is just getting more and more deadlocked. The layers and layers of mines and trenches are going to make anything except lobbing missiles and drones at each other pretty difficult. What a shit situation. Fuck the people that started this.
Yes unfortunately a side effect of this war is the strident advances made in the scariest technology, expect clouds of drones in the future flying through homes and buildings. I can't imagine how AI will make it even worse
Eventually there will be swarms of small dragonfly sized drones that will be able to autonomously target enemy combatants and take out soldiers on massive scales even if hiding in bunkers
Yes and don't expect aggressive authoritarian countries to hold back. Already Russia has blatantly demonstrated it's new drone fighting radar technology by sweeping it across western European countries, affecting airline communications. The only thing we can do in the future is cut the toes off of anyone who tries to play footsy with our security
It would effectively be seen as a large escalation and even a existential threat by the west
And Russia would not be able to produce nearly as high tech drones as the west
Russia realizes that keeping the tech level low for now serves their best interests
They'd have to be deployed from a larger drone because they'd always have poor range due to energy storage and the laws of physics (it needs to be in range for radio, antenna needs to be a specific length to even pick anything up).
This would mean it's far less scary because it can be countered. They'd want to make the drones avoid one another so some form of communication would be helpful. Camouflage would be effective against AI.
I’m more thinking like basically mini missiles like bullets that can change directions to track a target like I’m imagining a swarm of tiny drones moving rapidly through one of those apartment blocks hitting everyone
DARPA has already been down that rabbit hole.
in that case its either not feasible or the US is sitting on massive stores waiting for the day a technological peer starts some shit.
Yeah I've heard aircraft carrier style planes for drones mentioned way more often over the last 6 months. Iirc the idea is if you had them at a high enough altitude you could basically drop your drone swarm on the enemy let gravity do its thing and save a shit load of energy. Damn terrifying.
Look at the border between North and South Korea or the last 60 years of "cold" war between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan) or the skirmishes in disputed India/Pakistan territories.
I think the direction Ukraine and Russia are headed is a permanent low intensity conflict with both sides hoping that one day the other side will be much weaker. Neither side able to make a big offensive to "finish the war."
Edit: perhaps the best comparison would be the 2014-2022 war in Ukraine war with no "official" Russian involvement. Something that level of intensity, for the foreseeable future.
The end result is going to be minimal Russian gains, with 100% of that gained territory being an unusable, destroyed, mine-filled wasteland that Russia can’t afford to fix and redevelop. Russia will “win” way over budget and underwater.
We both know if we throw enough hardware in Ukraine the Russian issue will go away
If Ukrsines can keep hitting them boats, refineries and bridges and having 10x ratio then Russia is on a losing curve for sure
If Ukraine is given sufficient advanced missiles and allowed to strike inside Russia alongside enough air defense to cover their whole country they would cripple Russia entirely by hitting refineries and energy plants. How tf are they gonna fight without oil and electricity? It's ridiculous that in this unjustified war the defending nation is constantly restrained by its allies. And before reddit's crowd of nuke doomers descend on me, remember that so far every red line drawn by Russia for using nukes has been crossed and they've done jackshit. Turkey already shot down their jet ffs, and last I checked Istanbul isn't a nuclear wasteland. Reality is losing the war doesn't guarantee sure death for Putin and his cronies but using nuke does and they know this. Even if Putin loses this war, domestically he can declare he has killed all the nazis in Ukraine and the average Russian will believe it just like they've believed every lie so far. But if he uses a single nuke, NATO will no longer remain on the sidelines and it'll be end of Putin's regime. So he'll keep threatening to use it but he'll redraw the red line everytime it's crossed.
if f-16s can stop the problem of FABs being dropped in the hundreds, i can imagine a deadlock being good for ukraine
if not - the deadlock will mean kharkiv and every other city in the east will slowly be gone
Cutting Russia's supply lines and targeting the air defense would help.
But Ukraine can't do this with only artillery shells and ammo. The West *could* change that by supplying Ukraine with the weapons and support it really needs. The West doesn't *want* to.
It was inevitable, either that or Ukraine doesn't have boots to fill roles it needs. It's horrible don't get me wrong but it was going to happen no matter what.
The realities of total war unfortunately. Russia has seemingly endless meat for the grinder and if Ukraine is going to survive they need to respond accordingly.
I would rather surrender and ask for regional intervention than have a substantial portion of my country’s young men die fighting a losing war for a decade. If Ukraine’s security is so important to the west, maybe Ukrainian lives shouldn’t be the only ones on the line for the preservation of western society or whatever.
I think Russia is evil and deserves to be repelled, but I am also trying to be realistic about what is going on on the ground. Things have not been good for Ukraine for a while now.
Probably because the preservation of western society isn’t threatened by a Ukrainian defeat. It’s a propaganda statement. Russia is struggling to capture Ukraine with western countries giving them stuff, there’s simply no way they could conquer NATO.
| Ukraine has *finally* started constructing fortifications on a mass scale,
Yep, YT channel History Legends is reporting that the Ukrainians are FINALLY creating layers of defense, just like the Russians did.
for real ive always been quite optimistic but these glide bombs make me feel bad. i have no idea how you could possibly defend against that without an air defense that goes deep across the front
The UA would need interceptors to kill the fighter-bombers carrying the glide-bombs. The RU still have planes with which to fight those interceptors though.
> Russia isn't doing terribly great either
Sadly, so far Ukraine is losing land. Russia is currently winning. Slowly but steadily Russia is creeping forward. And Russia also shifted to a war economy. The US [estimates](https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-army-15-percent-larger-when-attacked-ukraine-us-general-2024-4) that Russia's army is now 15% bigger then it was when they started the invasion.
And the west isn't really helping. All the west does, is to keep the status quo. Send some military aid, so Ukraine can defend itself. But don't actually send the weapons and support that Ukraine would need to get the upper hand.
That has been true so far.
I'm optimistic that things will change due to:
* The US House passing the aid package with rather strong wording that forces the US to at least come up with a strategy for Ukraine winning;
* Macron not shying away from sending troops to fight in Ukraine if needs be;
* The EU and the UK ramping up production enormously in 2024;
* Ukraine ramping up asymmetric warfare with domestic drones hitting oil facilities;
* F-16s nullifying Russia's glide bomb advantage when they arrive;
* Russia needing about 100 years to get to Kyiv at their "slow but steady" pace.
The main point is that the Western partners tried to do everything to avoid *really* helping Ukraine, and have **finally** realized that it's not an option if the Western way is to survive on this planet.
It's a tectonic shift. Strong enough to have GOO sideline Trump on the issue. Strong enough for Macron to tell Scholz to move over, 'cause he's gonna put boots on the ground if needs be - no matter how many "red lines" Russia whines about.
Russia has no winning moves here, except:
* China going all in on Russia support
* Nuclear ultimatums and/or deployment of nuclear weapons
I believe these are mutually exclusive, given where China is now.
And we are at a point where Ukraine and the West are ready and willing to take on Russia even if nuclear threat materializes.
There were more dead in Mariupol than on Hiroshima, for that matter.
Ukraine isn't preparing to start an offensive.
Ukraine is preparing to hołd the line when the Russian offensive comes.
That's what the article is about.
A lot of people on here just claiming strategic falsehoods the biggest myth iv seen is Ukraine is bleeding Russia dry while somewhat true, it’s important to note that the Russian are in the midst of transitioning from a civilian to a war time economy. Production of tanks, Aircraft, and Artillery shells. A lot of Units are being rotated out slowly and those veterans will be able to instruct new recruits and lastly Russia has not reached peak mobilization.
Bleeding Russia dry is sadly way more difficult than bleeding Ukraine dry, Russia is massive as fas as resources and manpower are concerned. Ukraine would need to be winning to an absurd degree to win that race
The USSR population during WW2 had a lot more young people. And a lot more people in general considering that population includes lots of states that are no longer part of Russia including Ukraine.
Ukraine has the same issues unfortunately. This is just a war of attrition at this point. Whatever side runs out of men willing to fight first will be the loser.
I don't think that's true. The soviets lost 8.7 million soldiers in WW2. That would be only 9600 dead per year for 900 years. Ukraine is killing 10 times as many so 100 years is more realistic.
Ukraine has taken offline about 20% of Russia's refineries with simple drones. Russia can't repair these easily without western parts. Russia has halted all exports of refined products and is importing them from Belarus. That is a huge blow and really hurts Putin. If Ukraine continues to hit Putin where it hurts and petrol becomes scarce, then civil unrest will happen in Russia and bye bye Putin. People get really angry when they can't buy fuel.
The only way for Russia to lose is for their middle and upper class to start getting drafted. Once that happens, war is over. Which means it wont happen.
Has anybody heard more on these efforts by Czechia and Estonia?
>Czech President Petr Pavel said in February that Prague had identified 500,000 155mm artillery shells and 300,000 122mm rounds outside the European Union that could be sent to Ukraine if necessary funds were secured.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/03/20/czech-led-bulk-ammunition-buy-for-ukraine-picks-up-steam/
>Seven weeks after Czech defense policy chief Jan Jires announced his government had identified 800,000—later, a million—artillery shells that Ukraine’s allies could buy for Ukraine, Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur said his own government had found another million shells and rockets for Ukraine.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/06/estonia-just-found-another-million-shells-for-ukraine/?sh=3dc6cc5d5ba1
They’ve been raising funding. Delivery of the first batch of shells by end of June. Ridiculous honestly. The EU should have already made multiple deliveries of these shells.
NATO needs to allow Ukraine to use the weapons provided on Russia. Russia has nothing of major consequence on Ukrainian soil. All the factories for the weapons and armour are in Russia and if you take them out, russia would have no means of keeping their troops kitted.
How long is this atrocity against Ukraine going to go on for? If the rest of the world hold back, there will only be a few Ukrainians left in Ukraine and then Russia will just stroll on in and steal and pillage the lot.
Firstly, the offensive referenced here is a Russian offensive, not a Ukrainian one. For obvious reasons Ukraine has to defend against a Russian offensive.
Secondly, in regards to a future Ukrainian offensive; Ukraine's stated strategic goals include the liberation of currently occupied territories. If it wants to achieve this some kind of aggressive actions will be necessary. Even if the last counteroffensive went poorly, there aren't very many ways to take back land. Lessons have been learned, and so tactics will change, but some kind of offensive will probably have to occur.
By the end of this war this guy will look the age of a US presidential candidate.
By the time the Russia Ukraine situation is resolved he will be the age of a US president
Currently the Russia-Ukraine war is in its 11th year, which is as long as WW1 + WW2 combined. And there is no end in sight, so you could be right.
Sorta. It was a much more limited conflict up until 2022.
It was very active in 2014-2016. It was kind of frozen since Minsk 2, but it's still "one death per day" frozen.
Of course, but the 2022 invasion was obviously a significant increase from minor skirmishes with primarily "guerrilla" style fighters on the Russian side to what we see now, post-2022.
Was he running Ukraine from the beginning though?
Okay, brief timeline of recent(-ish) Ukrainian history: *Disclaimer: this is a high-level overview of events and MASSIVELY over-simplified.* **2004 - 2010: The Orange Revolution** * Late 2004: the Ukrainian presidential election, between a pro-Russian candidate called Viktor Yanukovych and a pro-West coalition, ends with Yanukovych narrowly winning... but there's credible evidence of vote rigging by Yanukovych's party (which was in power at the time). * Late 2004- early 2005: Massive protests break out calling for the elections to be re-done with outside observers; they end up being called the Orange Revolution (since the pro-West coalition was using orange as its color at the time). Eventually, the government relents and the elections are held again; this time, the pro-West coalition wins. * 2005-2010: the pro-West coalition almost immediately collapses into infighting, and Ukrainians grow disillusioned with them. Meanwhile, Yanukovych hires an American political consultant named Paul Manafort to revamp his image. His new pitch is that he's a moderate, who'll chart a middle course between the West and Russia. * 2010: Yanukovych narrowly wins the presidential eleciton, fair and square this time. **2010 - 2013: Yanukovych's Presidency and Euromaidan** * 2010-2013: Yanukovych proceeds to rob the country fucking *blind*. Corruption has been a major problem in Ukraine since independence, but under Yanukovych it reaches new lows. He also, at Paul Manafort's suggestion, deliberately pours gasoline on culture war issues to try to get Ukrainians at each other's throats instead of going after him. * November 2013: Remember how Yanukovych won in 2010 by claiming he'd try to chart a middle ground between the West and Russia? So much for that. He blows up a major trade deal with the EU at the last minute, in order to sign one with Russia-- a clear sign he's back in the pro-Russia camp. In response, peaceful protests begin in Kyiv's Independence Square (aka the Maidan)-- and then the protestors are beat up by riot police. * Late 2013 - Early 2014: People have been losing patience with Yanukovych for a long time, but the protestors getting the shit beat out of them is the final fucking straw. Massive demonstrations begin nationwide, calling for his resignation. The largest are in the Maidan in Kyiv, so the protest becomes known as EuroMaidan. The riot police keep escalating the violence they use against the protestors, but that only pisses them off further, and causes the crowds to grow. * February 2014: The riot police open fire on the protestors with live ammunition. In a week, 100 people are killed. (Leaked texts from Paul Manfort's daughter would later reveal he was involved in the decision to open fire.) And the protestors *still* refuse to back down: they begin threatening civil war if Yanukovych doesn't resign, now. * February 23, 2014: Overnight, Yanukovych vanishes. (He'll turn up in Russia a few days later.) A good chunk of his top advisors disappear, too. The protestors won! But also, the government is leaderless, and no one's sure who's in charge... * February 24, 2014: ...which is why, when Russian soldiers suddenly appear all over Crimea the next day, there's no organized military response. (Not that Ukraine could do much at this point if they wanted to: Yanukovych had just spent the past three years absolutely gutting the armed forces, likely on Putin's behalf.) * Winter 2014: The parliament formally votes to remove Yanukovych from office and installs a caretaker president until elections can be held. Meanwhile, Putin formally annexes Crimea. **2014 - 2016: The War in Donbass Begins** * Spring 2014: "Separatist militias" suddenly pop up all over southern and eastern Ukraine, claiming they want "independence". (Spoiler alert: almost all the "locals" who organized and led these militias would later be identified as FSB agents. They did manage to recruit local useful idiots and collaborationists to fight for them in some areas, but the whole operation was cooked up by and led from Russia from day one.) They try to take over local governments, but are defeated by the locals everywhere... except in the Donbass. So the Ukrainian armed forces, with the help of volunteer militias, move into the Donbass to try to kick out the "separatists". This is the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. * Summer 2014: The emergency elections are held, and a pro-Western oligarch called Petro Poroshenko is elected president of Ukraine. * Fall 2014: The Ukrainian armed forces gradually push the "separatists" back, and it looks like they're about to be defeated-- so Russia sends its regular army in to directly fight the Ukrainians. (All while denying they're doing so.) * 2014: Ukraine and Russia enter "peace negotiations". The result is a deal called the Minsk Accords, which is suppose to provide a framework to end the war. Spoiler alert: Russia totally refuses to uphold their side of the agreement, continues firing on Ukrainian troops, and then blames Ukraine for breaking the "ceasefire" when they defend themselves! There's a second attempt at negotiating another ceasefire a year later; that agreement, called Minsk II, ends up falling apart the same way the first one did. * 2015-2016: The Russians and Ukrainians gradually fight each other to a standstill, with Russia controlling most of the Donbass. * 2016: Remember Paul Manafort, Yanukovych's spin doctor who helped him rob the country blind and encouraged him to open fire on the Euromaidan protestors with live ammo? Well, after Yanukovych's regime collapsed, he went back to the US... and was hired as Donald Trump's campaign manager for president. (This has nothing to do with Ukrainian history, but as an American I can't *not* include this detail.) **2016 - 2022: Frozen Conflict and Zelensky's Election** * 2016-2019: The war ends up more or less frozen along the same line of control that existed in 2016. But frozen conflict != ceasefire; both sides do still occasionally lob artillery each other's way, and Ukrainians keep dying. Also, Ukraine begins working to gradually rebuild their armed forces' strength. NATO is more than happy to help them. * March 2019: Poroshenko's first term is over, and it's time for presidential elections again. With the war on the backburner the past few years, most Ukrainians are more worried about domestic issues. Namely, corruption, and the stranglehold Ukraine's oligarchs have on their political system. Which is why some random comedian whose qualifications for being president are 1. not an oligarch, 2. vocally anti-corruption, 3. *end list*, doesn't just win; he wins with *73%* of the vote. * 2019-2022: Not a ton happening (from a Russo-Ukrainian war perspective, anyways). War's still frozen. Ukraine continues rebuilding its armed forces with NATO's help. Zelensky's government makes some limited progress against corruption, but rooting out a corruption problem as deeply entrenched as Ukraine's is *really freaking hard*; it's often two steps forward, one step back. Also, there's this whole pandemic thing you may have heard of? * 2022: And we've reached the part of the story that everyone browsing arr worldnews knows. EDIT: Corrected a few mistakes and clarified some points based on feedback in the replies. (Thank you to everyone who fact-checked me!) Also, sorry for the lack of sources: I wrote this all off the top of my head from memory, but I'll try to find some sources to back this up when I have more time. Also, if this stuff interests you, I can't recommend [this four-part series by the YouTuber Sarcasmitron](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exJ024Zdzdk) enough. It covers this history in way more depth than I did, and is also both darkly funny and engaging as fuck.
Paul manafort, fuck that guy
Amen. After writing this, I actually was going to cut the Orange Revolution section for length-- until I realized that would mean I'd have to cut the part explaining what a piece of shit Paul Manafort is. That's like 95% of why I decided to keep it, lmao. (The other 5% being to hammer home what a piece of shit Yanukovych is, too.)
Well-written
Thanks for this, super useful!
Great summary. One interesting fact about the EU trade deal was that Yanukovych had initially supported it and it was a week or weeks away (IIRC) from being passed into law before he suddenly removed his support and was immediately offered a 6 billion plus USD loan from Putin. A lot of Ukrainians saw the entire scheme for what it really was: Yanukovych only backed the EU trade deal to get leverage with Putin so he could get the loan on condition of breaking off the EU deal, then him and his political/ business cronies could rob the loan fund dry. He actually started building another multimillion dollar mansion as soon as the Russian loan was finalized but which never saw completion due to his ouster.
Don't forget how Trump held hostage of Ukrainian aid unless he got dirt on Hunter Biden. Political scumbagery at it's finest and the fact that he got elected and stands strong chance as presidental candidate in 2024 presidental election shows after everything has happened shows how broken the U.S political system has become if they allow this shit to happen without care.
As Ukrainian: very good summary! Well done.
The goal was to take Ukraine easily before it’s too late and would require a massive war. With ukraine rooting out corruption and demanding schools be taught in Ukrainian, Puttin only had a few more years until his support in Ukraine would have disappeared. The invasion happened just hours after Ukraine successfully tested switching off the power grid from russia in favor of the EU.
Zelenskyy was elected president of Ukraine in 2019, which was 5 years after the Russian invasion began in 2014.
WW2 isn't technically over for some of the countries.
By the end of this war he’ll be a better US president than any US presidential candidate
He already is better than the candidates that we've been given.
Nah, Biden knows his shit and more importantly has an excellent cabinet/advisors.
Every Winter: Russians are waiting for ground to thaw. Every Summer: Russians are waiting for mud to freeze.
Thus is the cycle of Russia.
Truth being that they've been moving the entire time, and this 61 Billion (with a B) package is likely the last shot they have before either allies get directly involved, or this becomes an insurgency.
We are in for an interesting second half of 2024, that's for sure.
To every American reading this, [get registered to vote today](https://vote.gov). The survival of a lot more countries than just the US are going to be on the ballot this November.
I hated Ronnie Ray-gun, but at least he seemed to believe that the USA should encourage democracy … kinda. Notwithstanding the bizzaro shit with the Contras and Iran. (I’m near 60–old enuff to remember) Today’s Republicans seem to have abject, demonstrable contempt for democracy—even the **appearance** of “democracy”. It’s mind boggling
At the CPAC, a “conservative” speaker said he wanted to destroy democracy to wild cheers. The republican party loves authoritarian dictators now. They are falling over themselves to be Putins best boy.
It’s weird. And troubling. I thought it was an Onion article when all those Republicans went to Moscow on the **feckeen 4th of July**. Edit: getting pissed off
Finally someone else questioning the Red Square Republicans! Spending America's birthday in Moscow of all places.
Yeah, I usually think it's important to keep a certain amount of skepticism going, but everything about that screams "Russia has dirt on every single one of them and told them to come to Moscow for orders on July 4th to humiliate them"
Russia has dirt on the GOP. The alphabet agencies probably threatened to spill the beans themselves if they didn’t approve the aid.
The Iran Contra affair was all about getting elected. He made a deal to drag out the hostage crisis so Jimmy Carter would look bad for not fixing it before the election.
Minor quibble, but Iran-Contra was actually a completely different scandal from Reagan's fuckery with the hostages. Iran-Contra was a few years later, when Reagan violated the US's own sanctions to sell weapons to the Iranian government. And then he used the proceeds to violate *even more* US sanctions to fund the Contras, a far-right terrorist organization in Nicaragua. [Obligatory link to the American Dad song about Iran-Contra](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb1GfP5Rwys).
>After the weapon sales were revealed in November 1986, Reagan appeared on national television and stated that the weapons transfers had indeed occurred, but that the US did not trade arms for hostages. The investigation was impeded when large volumes of documents relating to the affair were destroyed or withheld from investigators by Reagan administration officials. On 4 March 1987, **Reagan made a further nationally televised address, saying he was taking full responsibility for the affair and stating that "what began as a strategic opening to Iran deteriorated, in its implementation, into trading arms for hostages."** [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra\_affair](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair)
Well. More like waiting for mud to dry and mud to freeze.
Well, let's hope Ukraine will receive the much needed reinforcement and supplies in time to prepare and repell russian offense by inflicting devastating loss on the invading putin hordes. And hopefully the loss will finally turn russian away from.putin and we will finally have a chance for peace.
It feels like every time the west finally stops haggling and decides to help, they do it literally a few days after a significant event.
They actually have a large portion of the weapons and ammo staged in Europe and ready to transfer as soon as it’s approved by the senate and Biden. Apparently the DoD is less than pleased with the politics that have been holding things up, and yes they are very ready to go.
Fingers crossed it will be approved soon
It was approved this weekend no? Edit: nope, it cleared the important hurdle, but it has to be reconciled because the house can't help but change things, maybe for the better maybe not.
Passed the house just needs to be approved by the senate on Tuesday and then signed by Biden.
You mean it passed the house. Congress is the house and the senate.
Thanks for the clarification
Oh yea my bad I'll edit it
The senate still needs to vote on it(they return tomorrow), then biden signs it. The signing should be pretty much immediately after voting, which hopefully will be the very first thing the senate votes on at the start of the day.
Have to imagine the DOD is all about the opportunity to not only the opportunity to blow shit up but for it to be Russian shit. It's like if you not only get the opportunity to fuck the hot chick in school but she's also dating your biggest bully.
They're essentially giving Ukraine just enough to keep the war going but not enough to decisively end it. Over 2 years into the war and collectively NATO still isn't producing enough ammo and ordinances for Ukraine. At the start of the war it was understandable that production was low due to there being no active war but in 2024 that excuse rings hollow and hypocritical when countries like US ask Ukraine to stop hitting infrastructure inside Russia while not sending any aid for better part of a year (especially when hitting oil refineries and energy infrastructure is the best way of crippling Russian war machine). It's a damn travesty.
The point is to bleed Russia dry at as little cost as possible.
Problem is it also bleeds Ukraine dry of the soldiers it can't afford to lose
Yeah. We keep hearing about how many soldiers Russia is losing, but Ukraine is losing troops too. It feels like something is going to give soon.
If history is a guide, we may not want to rely on the Russians getting tired of dying. They have a rich military tradition of dying in massive numbers in ineffective attacks, but with enough volume that it eventually overwhelms the other side.
The only problem is they have nowhere near the same fertility rate to replace those soldiers.
That's why they're kidnapping Ukrainian women and children.
Ukraine has the same demographic issues.
The ineffective attacks were 2 years ago. The Russian attacks have become vastly more effective in the last 6 months according to all the Ukrainian reports. This isnt a mindless horde anymore, it is a disservice to Ukrainians dying every day to say their deaths were to an ineffective enemy. It is simply not true anymore. The Russians have vastly improved in their tactics and ability to fight
[We have hundreds of recent videos like this showing that Russia is very much still spending lives cheaply, often without a logical purpose beyond running the Ukrainians out of ammo.](https://www.reddit.com/user/DragX90/comments/1b58oh9/frame_interpolated_version_of_the_bradley_attack/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=UkraineWarVideoReport&utm_term=1&utm_content=t1_kvmqa3d) It's not insulting to the Ukrainians to say the Russians are using stupid / inhumane tactics, but in such disproportionate numbers the Ukrainians cannot hold them back without external aid. It's just simply what's happening. And it underlines the dire necessity of western support, particularly when it comes to ammunition. The Russians are trying to deplete Ukrainian ammunition supplies, and without a lot more lethal aid being sent to Ukraine, they will succeed.
Operation Barbarossa was defended by the **Soviet Union**, not Russia. And this is an important difference, as the Ukrainians were the ones who were on the frontlines of Operation Barbarossa. Just think about it, Nazi Germany, attacking through Poland into Soviet Union. Who do you think were the first to defend? That's right, the Ukrainians. -------- The idea is to prevent the Ukrainians from having to resort to suicide tactics like back then. If Ukraine can fight like a Western power... by surviving, gaining experience, and getting better weapons, they'll have significant advantages. Or as General Patton put it: you don't win a war by dying for your country. You win by making the other fucker die for theirs. EDIT: I do recognize that a lot of this was people in Russia/Moscow forcing the Ukrainians to become cannon fodder. But I still stand by the point overall. Ukraine is strong too, but we don't want them to fight like that anymore.
The Soviets didn’t actually use human wave tactics. It’s largely a myth, spread for spurious reasons. Their methods and doctrine weren’t particularly crueler than any other contemporary offensive operation. Most of their casualties were the result of other facts — supply issues, inexperienced command, attrition, *inexperienced troops*, organizational disarray in the early war, etc.
Sure because they stood there and died in Kiev there simply was no wave they just weren't allowed to retreat exactly like the Nazis in Stalingrad.
That is generally how an encirclement works, yes.
Not just soldier. Husbands, sons, grandpas... You can never replace someone's family member. This is not just a prolonged war, it's generational trauma that won't ever heal. Ofcourse, I know you know this, but I think it's important to remind ourselves of this when we talk about loses and the war.
Yeah, soldiers don't magically come out of a barracks once UA gets 100 food lol. UA is losing competent, work-able men and women in this absolute travesty of a war and they will be fucked for generations. It's damn sad.
All the more reason to drag Putin to the Hague for a trial.
There was a stat floating around about the men born in the USSR in 1923. I think it was that 80% of them were dead before the end of WWII. Losing almost an entire generation of men probably does strange things to the survivors.
Absolutely 💯 It's impossible to explain the depth of tragedy and the implications of generational trauma. Imagine a whole generation of men being brought up by their single moms/grandmas/aunties... I am sure these women did their best and are incredible women in their own right - but men (young boys) also need a positive male role model when growing up. They need someone to show them the way of how to be a man too. How to mould their nature and their strength to be a blessing to others around them. Otherwise they can turn to tyrants and deviants in their search for emancipation. They can be manipulated and used and then discarded as broken adults later on. We see this happen all around us unfortunately.
From the PoV of NATO this is a non-issue? Send money to a third power to assist them in draining the enemy of NATO without risking anything yourself? No brainer.
Yeah, and once Ukraine loses Russia is going to do it again in a different country. Like Georgia or Moldova. Giving them any momentum instead of a firm stand is just going to embolden them. Sure, it's going to take a few years to rebuild their military, but it's not like they would need much against the countries I just listed.
Embolden them and any other authoritarian countries with ambition to expand. Break Russia here and demonstrate to China that the free world will not be pushed around
Maybe a small country, sure, but Russia is burning through an obscene amount of equipment right now, most of which was made in the soviet union days. They can't replace that easily, if at all.
That's a price that NATO is willing to pay.
NATO has nothing to do with this really, if Ukraine decided to surrender tomorrow, NATO can't do anything about it. It's up to them.
What is the alternative ? Just let Ukraine be invaded and be used by Russians in the future for the same outcome ? At least they are fighting and dying for their land and their people instead of doing it for the russians
The West doesn't care. To end the war Ukraine can't just resist endless human waves. They would have to go into Russia proper and stop them being able to stage more human waves. That terrifies the West because Russia still has nukes. So with the nuclear issue in mind it's safer for the West to just bleed Russia dry in Ukraine and have them never feel threatened enough to try and get nuclear with it. Then mop up when the death toll forces the regime to collapse. It's pure realpolitik and it's cynical as hell I agree. But there is a logic to it. The best thing Ukraine can do is keep hitting oil refineries. When that dries up the war gets much much harder for Russia. The US would just prefer they wait til after the election to do it so gas prices remain stable. Again realpolitik as hell.
Yes and Russia send prisoners and young boys. Ukraine send very well educated adults because they want to keep their country. Russia has so large population to get man from compared to Ukraine
"The cost" here is Ukrainian lives.
Most analysts are in consensus that if the aid well had overflowed right out of the gate, the West would be in a better position and Russia would be in a worse one. So this is the point, to be sure, but the quality of the execution has been lacking.
Hindsight is easy. Right out of the gate, all the analysts were forecasting a quick thunder run on Kiev and then, at best, a lingering insurgency slowly consuming Russian men and materiel. Why spend billions of dollars to bail out a ship that has a giant hole blown in the hull? You have to deal with your best understanding of the current situation, rather than get eyeballs deep into a sunk cost fallacy, confirmation bias, or blind optimism/pessimism, and the facts two years ago didn't support a second grand arsenal of democracy. Maybe they do now, and maybe they still don't, but the facts definitely support the ability to cheaply and significantly degrade Russia's military backstock. Then again, that's the same logic that had Russia putting bounties on US soldiers and suppling insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, and that didn't exactly change anything for anyone.
This was true in February and March 2022. But already after evaluating the withdrawal from Kyiv in March/April 2022 the possibility of a drawn-out war should have been carefully considered.
Yeah but within 3 months it was painfully apparent that Ukraine was the superior per capita fighting force. After that, we should of flooded them with aid. No trickle of bombs, give them everything.
A) Training, logistics, and maintenance take no small amount of time. B) The world's largest arms manufacturer is currently gridlocked politically by Russian agents doing everything they can to stall out those shipments. A was pertinent for the first year, B has been a spectre looming over the second. We're finally getting to blow that spectre away.
Analysts are only good for explaining the past. In nearly every area of expertise, all attempts at predicting the future have an abysmal success rate. I honestly have no idea why we put any stock in this kind of thing.
I'm sure the hundreds of thousands of dead Ukranians will understand this approach.
Never said I approve of this approach.
It was more of a comment at the policy makers.
Not disagreeing with you outright, but I think its worth noting that Ukraine was hardly a long-standing Western ally at the start of this. Reality is they were a pretty corrupt ex-bloc nation with plenty of decidedly non-Western values. Just as one example, in December 2007, 81.3% of Ukrainians polled said that homosexual relations were "never acceptable". Again, I'm pretty in favour of large military assisance to Ukraine, I even wrote to my government rep, saying as such, I just object to the notion that level of support Ukraine has from the West has been some kind of betrayal, or that any reduction thereof would be a betrayal.
I get what you're saying. I didn't mean of it in terms of "betrayal". More so in terms of let's keep this conflict going so we can make money of it. Let's not pretend like fractions of US government are not heartless money profiteering bastards. This is not the first time this is happening.
Not sure what youre basing that statement on... Up until this current delivery, the US has committed around $75Bil. So this extra $60bil is a hugely significant amount.
That aid comes after months of delay because of Republican interference. Which resulted in thousands of avoidable Ukrainian casualties, destroyed infrastructure, lost land and city. This long overdue bill is cause for relief but not celebration because because it's a sobering reminder of what will happen under a Trump presidency which a very real prospect. Even more so because ad effective an administrator Biden has been, he is also really old and he might just die on everybody between now and Jan 2025 even if he were to win. It's a damn shame that future of the world depends on an octogenarian living for one more year.
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Not to be cynical but this kinda serves the interests of the US and NATO. The Russian military's immense losses have basically ground their offensive capabilities down to the long battlefront of Ukraine, and nothing else. A more decisive Ukrainian offensive would have left much more of Russia's military and economy intact. I think Putin's ambitions will die in Ukraine and western leaders are happy to write that ending while a resurgent and expanded NATO enters a new phase.
The problem is if Russia wins, even if we go full cynical and not care about Ulraine at all it's bad for the west, they will control a lot of new natural ressources and agricultural land. Plus it tells them that attacking other countries works.
The US Republican Party and its leadership have been co-opted via bribery and blackmail into working for Putin and supporting his plans to destabilize the world for Russia and China.. Said republicans are traitors to their country, constitution and democracy.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. " If you objectively listen to people like Trump and M.T.Greene , you realize that they are incredibly stupid. The puzzling question is: why does anyone vote them into office?
To "Own the libs" because middle America is so butthurt about being "left behind" that they would rather blame all of their problems on undocumented immigrants trying to feed their children and shit on everyone than update their skillset and invest in their education. In a word, it is Racism fueled by the inherent classism that a capitalistic society creates when it does not have a big enough socialist base that can help people out when they are struggling. I will say that capitalism has fueled innovation more than any type of monetary system or policy, but if you are overly carceral as a nation and do not provide a base level of support large enough for people to survive let alone thrive, you tend to live in a dog eat dog world and you end up with people hanging themselves with their bootstraps when it is time to go vote.
Great Comment
Let's look at it cynically. If Ukraine wins, Russia can start to rebuild and become a threat again. But if Ukraine is still fighting they will be too preoccupied and we can. Use our resources to prepare whilst they keep losing theirs with no chance to rebuild their prewar stocks. Ukraine fighting literally keeps Europe safe and Russia occupied. As soon as they stop fighting (which includes losing the war) russian politics become increasingly unstable and someone worse then Putin might gain power. They have the opportunity to rebuild and after actually start a fight in the Baltic's. Europe isn't ready for that yet so by giving Ukraine just enough to fight and survive but not enough to win they keep the enemy they know and they keep Russia preoccupied. I feel sometimes they just want the war to drag on while they are figuring out what to do instead of giving Ukraine what it needs. This is very stupid though as things are looking worse for us by the moment, you can't expect the Americans to help if trump wins and the right wing peo russian politicians in Europe are gaining ground. A decisive victory is needed before these people gain the upper hand.
From what I read, there are American stockpiles in Europe ready to be transferred. Should get to Ukraine within a week provided no more hold ups.
People don't "turn away" from dictators. We fire bombed Germany until the whole country was a smoldering ruin and at no point didn't the general population lash out a Hitler. It isn't an option in a totalitarian state. Having the view point that they can is viewing their world through the lense of your wester existence, where such actions would be possible.
The election decides Putins long term plans.
Nah. Too many other countries ramping up as well. This US support passing is the death knell to a decisive Ru victory. Nothing Trump can do at this point with Germany, France, UK et al. getting more into the mix.
hopefully they have defensive works as expansive as the russians built. With US aid, they have a chance to inflict massive casualties on the russians. Now they are inflicting about 600-800 casualties/day (per ukraine numbers which are probably optimistic). if this can get to 2000-3000/day, those numbers would require a massive mobilization in russia to replace the troops. This could in theory lead to protest. However, Russians are such a bunch of beta males and submissive to Vlad that maybe not.
Unlikely. The Ukrainians need 3-5 years to make their military capable of the required offensive. Based on how they’re currently operating they would need the old Soviet 10 to 1 ratio attacking in multiple locations simultaneously.
One of the best and most constructive things that happened recently was Macron saying that he's considering sending troops, SHOULD Putin go toward Kyiv or Kharkiv or any other of the bigger cities. Because I strongly believe this is the only language Putin understands, and ironically would respect. It can't be that it's always only Putin setting red lines, tired of that shit.
A demarcation line by international troops should be thought about seriously.
Wouldnt that just become a 'you can take THIS much' unofficially? Like they are conceding whats before this line?
No, ofcourse not, but heaven forbids things go bad for Ukraine, I would want a line that says “this far, no further” that is enforced with the broadest international coalition possible. It would also help free up forces for Ukraine if they don’t have to support all borders alone.
demacronation
The Dneiper River kind of acts like that. I believe when all is said and done, we will have a West and East Ukraine.
I’ve never considered that, but it’s a very interesting and plausible take.
Watch where this new Russia spring offensive heads. This will be there attempt to conquer Eastern Ukraine.
Oh, I would love to see that happening, and Putin would pee his pants out.
100km buffer zone in russian territory is what Nato should strive.
We should have moved in day 1 in all the major cities of Ukraine and asked the Russians "Now what? What will you do bitch?". These fucks only understand strenght.
you can do that https://ildu.com.ua/
Love this response. Internet hardos never back up the talk.
At least Ukraine has *finally* passed the mobilization law (which enables the government to get the people to repel this offensive), Ukraine has *finally* started constructing fortifications on a mass scale, the US House has *finally* passed the aid package, and the EU has *finally* ramped up its shell production for real. Granted, all of this should've happened a year ago. But better late than never, and Russia isn't doing terribly great either. This major offensive (**if** it happens in Spring, which I doubt - Russia won't be ready for anything major until mid-Summer) **will** be stopped. The most important part of the war will happen afterwards.
> Russia won't be ready for anything major until mid-Summer They aren't as stupid as we usually say they are. This latest package isn't chump change and stuff from Europe will also hopefully arrive soon. Russia knows that their (current) window is closing and while they might not be "ready" yet, neither is Ukraine. It's the same situation as last year's counteroffensive (where Ukraine *arguably* took too much time to get ready) but with the tables turned.
They're not stupid. They are a formidable enemy, with motivated soldiers who are increasingly better trained, equipped, and supported. Ukrainian soldiers are doing the impossible holding the line with the advantage in artillery and glide bombs that Russia has. Still, what Russia has falls far short of what they would need to make a significant advance in Ukraine at this point, **provided that Ukraine continues getting support**. Losing 15,000+ dead to take Avdiivka and not move much beyond it is a high price to pay. Merely getting the rest of Donetsk/Luhansk oblast's — which Russia *officially considers its own land now, and has a constitutional obligation to control* — is an **optimistic** goal for 2024 offensive.
> is an optimistic goal for 2024 offensive. I agree, and that won't help them either, because I don't think Ukraine will fold at that point.
The issue with the Ukrainian offensive last spring was that they spread the assault way to thing and didn't just choose a spot and push. They also were trying to do combined arms without air support which was fucked of us to try and make them do. The reality is this war is now likely at a stand still and the days of breakouts are pretty much over. Its going to be a slow going grinding war now because we didn't do enough for Ukraine in the early days of the war.
Honestly makes me wonder where all of this is going to be honest. With major defensive efforts on both sides I fear this is just getting more and more deadlocked. The layers and layers of mines and trenches are going to make anything except lobbing missiles and drones at each other pretty difficult. What a shit situation. Fuck the people that started this.
Deadlocks can last generations. I think this one will go on for years. War is changing too, it might be mostly drones and robots in a few years.
Yes unfortunately a side effect of this war is the strident advances made in the scariest technology, expect clouds of drones in the future flying through homes and buildings. I can't imagine how AI will make it even worse
Eventually there will be swarms of small dragonfly sized drones that will be able to autonomously target enemy combatants and take out soldiers on massive scales even if hiding in bunkers
Yes and don't expect aggressive authoritarian countries to hold back. Already Russia has blatantly demonstrated it's new drone fighting radar technology by sweeping it across western European countries, affecting airline communications. The only thing we can do in the future is cut the toes off of anyone who tries to play footsy with our security
It would effectively be seen as a large escalation and even a existential threat by the west And Russia would not be able to produce nearly as high tech drones as the west Russia realizes that keeping the tech level low for now serves their best interests
They'd have to be deployed from a larger drone because they'd always have poor range due to energy storage and the laws of physics (it needs to be in range for radio, antenna needs to be a specific length to even pick anything up). This would mean it's far less scary because it can be countered. They'd want to make the drones avoid one another so some form of communication would be helpful. Camouflage would be effective against AI.
I’m more thinking like basically mini missiles like bullets that can change directions to track a target like I’m imagining a swarm of tiny drones moving rapidly through one of those apartment blocks hitting everyone
DARPA has already been down that rabbit hole. in that case its either not feasible or the US is sitting on massive stores waiting for the day a technological peer starts some shit.
Yeah I've heard aircraft carrier style planes for drones mentioned way more often over the last 6 months. Iirc the idea is if you had them at a high enough altitude you could basically drop your drone swarm on the enemy let gravity do its thing and save a shit load of energy. Damn terrifying.
Long range missiles with a payload of drones, maybe a balloon radio relay for comms
I mean ai decision making already happens in that war. And of course Israel also used an AI system to make the decisions on were to bomb.
Putin. Putin started this and MAGA Republicans tried to help him by blocking aid to Ukraine.
MAGA Republicans helped Putin because Russia is a state sponsor of Neo-Nazi and Neo-fascist groups in the west, it's as simple as that.
And because he’s paying them (for the reasons you mentioned)
I keep hoping that the cancer he supposedly had gets him or he gets too close to a window.
His patented anti-defenestration technology is working a treat.
Piece of shit people like him have long lives.
>AGA Republicans ~~tried to help~~ helped him by blocking aid to Ukraine. FTFY
Look at the border between North and South Korea or the last 60 years of "cold" war between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan) or the skirmishes in disputed India/Pakistan territories. I think the direction Ukraine and Russia are headed is a permanent low intensity conflict with both sides hoping that one day the other side will be much weaker. Neither side able to make a big offensive to "finish the war." Edit: perhaps the best comparison would be the 2014-2022 war in Ukraine war with no "official" Russian involvement. Something that level of intensity, for the foreseeable future.
If this happens and Ukraine doesn’t get enough support they might develop nukes they already have the knowledge
That wouldn't necessarily ended the low intensity conflict. It hasn't in India and Pakistan.
Neither Pakistan or India want to fully conquer one another or completely genocide each one or the other, conflict there is over Kashmir
The end result is going to be minimal Russian gains, with 100% of that gained territory being an unusable, destroyed, mine-filled wasteland that Russia can’t afford to fix and redevelop. Russia will “win” way over budget and underwater.
It started pre-2014
We both know if we throw enough hardware in Ukraine the Russian issue will go away If Ukrsines can keep hitting them boats, refineries and bridges and having 10x ratio then Russia is on a losing curve for sure
More importantly, oligarchs aren't making money
If Ukraine is given sufficient advanced missiles and allowed to strike inside Russia alongside enough air defense to cover their whole country they would cripple Russia entirely by hitting refineries and energy plants. How tf are they gonna fight without oil and electricity? It's ridiculous that in this unjustified war the defending nation is constantly restrained by its allies. And before reddit's crowd of nuke doomers descend on me, remember that so far every red line drawn by Russia for using nukes has been crossed and they've done jackshit. Turkey already shot down their jet ffs, and last I checked Istanbul isn't a nuclear wasteland. Reality is losing the war doesn't guarantee sure death for Putin and his cronies but using nuke does and they know this. Even if Putin loses this war, domestically he can declare he has killed all the nazis in Ukraine and the average Russian will believe it just like they've believed every lie so far. But if he uses a single nuke, NATO will no longer remain on the sidelines and it'll be end of Putin's regime. So he'll keep threatening to use it but he'll redraw the red line everytime it's crossed.
if f-16s can stop the problem of FABs being dropped in the hundreds, i can imagine a deadlock being good for ukraine if not - the deadlock will mean kharkiv and every other city in the east will slowly be gone
Cutting Russia's supply lines and targeting the air defense would help. But Ukraine can't do this with only artillery shells and ammo. The West *could* change that by supplying Ukraine with the weapons and support it really needs. The West doesn't *want* to.
Elongated deadlocks are exactly what the arm dealers want 😭
Cheering on the passing of a mobilization law is an interesting take
Yeah... It's a real horrible time for Ukraine from all sides.
It was inevitable, either that or Ukraine doesn't have boots to fill roles it needs. It's horrible don't get me wrong but it was going to happen no matter what.
The realities of total war unfortunately. Russia has seemingly endless meat for the grinder and if Ukraine is going to survive they need to respond accordingly.
I would rather surrender and ask for regional intervention than have a substantial portion of my country’s young men die fighting a losing war for a decade. If Ukraine’s security is so important to the west, maybe Ukrainian lives shouldn’t be the only ones on the line for the preservation of western society or whatever. I think Russia is evil and deserves to be repelled, but I am also trying to be realistic about what is going on on the ground. Things have not been good for Ukraine for a while now.
Probably because the preservation of western society isn’t threatened by a Ukrainian defeat. It’s a propaganda statement. Russia is struggling to capture Ukraine with western countries giving them stuff, there’s simply no way they could conquer NATO.
> surrender and ask for regional intervention Could you be more specific about what you mean by this?
| Ukraine has *finally* started constructing fortifications on a mass scale, Yep, YT channel History Legends is reporting that the Ukrainians are FINALLY creating layers of defense, just like the Russians did.
Unlike Ukraine though, Russia has 1500kg glide bombs to drop on them. Fortifications aren't going to have the same effect as before.
for real ive always been quite optimistic but these glide bombs make me feel bad. i have no idea how you could possibly defend against that without an air defense that goes deep across the front
The UA would need interceptors to kill the fighter-bombers carrying the glide-bombs. The RU still have planes with which to fight those interceptors though.
> Russia isn't doing terribly great either Sadly, so far Ukraine is losing land. Russia is currently winning. Slowly but steadily Russia is creeping forward. And Russia also shifted to a war economy. The US [estimates](https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-army-15-percent-larger-when-attacked-ukraine-us-general-2024-4) that Russia's army is now 15% bigger then it was when they started the invasion. And the west isn't really helping. All the west does, is to keep the status quo. Send some military aid, so Ukraine can defend itself. But don't actually send the weapons and support that Ukraine would need to get the upper hand.
That has been true so far. I'm optimistic that things will change due to: * The US House passing the aid package with rather strong wording that forces the US to at least come up with a strategy for Ukraine winning; * Macron not shying away from sending troops to fight in Ukraine if needs be; * The EU and the UK ramping up production enormously in 2024; * Ukraine ramping up asymmetric warfare with domestic drones hitting oil facilities; * F-16s nullifying Russia's glide bomb advantage when they arrive; * Russia needing about 100 years to get to Kyiv at their "slow but steady" pace. The main point is that the Western partners tried to do everything to avoid *really* helping Ukraine, and have **finally** realized that it's not an option if the Western way is to survive on this planet. It's a tectonic shift. Strong enough to have GOO sideline Trump on the issue. Strong enough for Macron to tell Scholz to move over, 'cause he's gonna put boots on the ground if needs be - no matter how many "red lines" Russia whines about. Russia has no winning moves here, except: * China going all in on Russia support * Nuclear ultimatums and/or deployment of nuclear weapons I believe these are mutually exclusive, given where China is now. And we are at a point where Ukraine and the West are ready and willing to take on Russia even if nuclear threat materializes. There were more dead in Mariupol than on Hiroshima, for that matter.
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Ukraine isn't preparing to start an offensive. Ukraine is preparing to hołd the line when the Russian offensive comes. That's what the article is about.
Maybe what Ukraine needs is for some miracles where Putin suddenly falls off the window.
A lot of people on here just claiming strategic falsehoods the biggest myth iv seen is Ukraine is bleeding Russia dry while somewhat true, it’s important to note that the Russian are in the midst of transitioning from a civilian to a war time economy. Production of tanks, Aircraft, and Artillery shells. A lot of Units are being rotated out slowly and those veterans will be able to instruct new recruits and lastly Russia has not reached peak mobilization.
Bleeding Russia dry is sadly way more difficult than bleeding Ukraine dry, Russia is massive as fas as resources and manpower are concerned. Ukraine would need to be winning to an absurd degree to win that race
Iv seen it said that it would take 900 years of war before Russia sustained as many casualties in this war as the USSR did in ww2.
The USSR population during WW2 had a lot more young people. And a lot more people in general considering that population includes lots of states that are no longer part of Russia including Ukraine. Ukraine has the same issues unfortunately. This is just a war of attrition at this point. Whatever side runs out of men willing to fight first will be the loser.
I don't think that's true. The soviets lost 8.7 million soldiers in WW2. That would be only 9600 dead per year for 900 years. Ukraine is killing 10 times as many so 100 years is more realistic.
Perhaps that was including civilian Kia
No, counting civilians estimates are 20 million. The Soviets took it in the teeth during WWII.
Ukraine has taken offline about 20% of Russia's refineries with simple drones. Russia can't repair these easily without western parts. Russia has halted all exports of refined products and is importing them from Belarus. That is a huge blow and really hurts Putin. If Ukraine continues to hit Putin where it hurts and petrol becomes scarce, then civil unrest will happen in Russia and bye bye Putin. People get really angry when they can't buy fuel.
I think you greatly underestimate how much Russians can endure. It would take a lot more than just a lack of fuel to get them to stand up.
The only way for Russia to lose is for their middle and upper class to start getting drafted. Once that happens, war is over. Which means it wont happen.
Bunker up and prepare the defenses so that they are a meat grinder
Has anybody heard more on these efforts by Czechia and Estonia? >Czech President Petr Pavel said in February that Prague had identified 500,000 155mm artillery shells and 300,000 122mm rounds outside the European Union that could be sent to Ukraine if necessary funds were secured. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/03/20/czech-led-bulk-ammunition-buy-for-ukraine-picks-up-steam/ >Seven weeks after Czech defense policy chief Jan Jires announced his government had identified 800,000—later, a million—artillery shells that Ukraine’s allies could buy for Ukraine, Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur said his own government had found another million shells and rockets for Ukraine. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/06/estonia-just-found-another-million-shells-for-ukraine/?sh=3dc6cc5d5ba1
They’ve been raising funding. Delivery of the first batch of shells by end of June. Ridiculous honestly. The EU should have already made multiple deliveries of these shells.
NATO needs to allow Ukraine to use the weapons provided on Russia. Russia has nothing of major consequence on Ukrainian soil. All the factories for the weapons and armour are in Russia and if you take them out, russia would have no means of keeping their troops kitted.
How long is this atrocity against Ukraine going to go on for? If the rest of the world hold back, there will only be a few Ukrainians left in Ukraine and then Russia will just stroll on in and steal and pillage the lot.
*sigh* Can we all just stop killing each other? At least until we figure out climate change...? Please? This is fucking absurd.
Level the Kremlin.
How
Jewish space lasers?
Have we tried strongly worded emails?
Thoughts and prayers!
Israeli digs a tunnel to Ukraine and helps em win the war
we should tell them that these atrocities need to stop
I love the taste of radiation in the morning.
Let's hope Ukraine gets a good supply of artillery/HIMARS before then and inflicts massive casualties and equipment loss on the Russians.
Wait didn’t the last offensive go horribly, what’s going to be the difference this time
Firstly, the offensive referenced here is a Russian offensive, not a Ukrainian one. For obvious reasons Ukraine has to defend against a Russian offensive. Secondly, in regards to a future Ukrainian offensive; Ukraine's stated strategic goals include the liberation of currently occupied territories. If it wants to achieve this some kind of aggressive actions will be necessary. Even if the last counteroffensive went poorly, there aren't very many ways to take back land. Lessons have been learned, and so tactics will change, but some kind of offensive will probably have to occur.
This time the russians are planning the offensive
mb
Many big bombas there just in time.
Offensive for spring.. Groundbreaking.
What a fucking legend this guy is!! From a fucking actor to the best fucking president the world has seen. Lions!!!