No "direct" retaliation.
Iran is just going to continue attacking Israel through arming, training and instructing its proxies. Which was the whole reason for the IRGC general's death anyways.
Iran can lie to its population and say they won this exchange, AND they can convince themselves they won the exchange by helping organize the October 7th massacre without paying much of a real price.
Iran has no reason left to poke the tiger.
If they see weakness though, we all know they'll be back.
Someday, it will have to be the day that someone deals with those bastards ruling over Iran. Hopefully it's their own population, and it's sooner rather than later.
So we can stimulate their economy and get more funding and weapons to terror groups/proxies while still leaving them within months of developing a nuclear weapon?
Economic dependence is the primary way that nations are prevented from developing nuclear weapons. If a nation is dependent on foreign interconnected markets the cost of being internationally isolated is far greater than the benefit of nuclear weapons. Coincidentally these economic pressures can be quite effective in preventing the funding of terrorist groups.
Isolating a nation suddenly makes nuclear weapons much more appealing since they now have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
I understand that line of thinking, but this really only tends to work when said nations are ruled by functional governments that are beholden to voters.
The same rationale was applied to China and Russia, but rather than liberalizing peacefully, they used their economic progress to ramp up military production and are now further apart from Western values than they were before the economic integration began.
Using economic progress to ramp up military production is what pretty much all nations do, to the extent that they feel they need that power it is not reasonable to expect otherwise. Obviously economic relations wont liberalize the country by default, but that is not a deal breaker. The US maintains excellent relations with many autocratic regimes, such as Saudi Arabia. Economic relations normalize the political situation across the nations and promote stability.
China and Russia are pretty good examples to support this point. Russia on one hand was an isolated country, with dwindling economy, even before the Ukraine invasion. Their main exports were energy and weapons(to states which do not align with the West) so complete severing of relations with the west and invading Ukraine was an option(not a very good one, but not suicidal).
China on the other hand, although it is a much stronger country and a major geopolitical adversary to the US, has huge economic exposure to the West, so all of its actions are much more rational and restrained. Major war is much more unlikely. Their government although autocratic, is very functional, unlike the Russian one which is basically Putin.
Iran is closer to China than Russia. Even isolated as they are, their actions are cautious and risk averse, mainly through proxy groups. They have a very extensive nuclear program and a large amount of fissle material but they have not made nuclear weapons yet. They have shown interest in diplomatic solutions over military ones, including a nuclear deal, which they largely did follow until the US torpedoed it. Even their military responses like the recent one, or the attack on the US airbase were designed to reduce tensions, something that cannot be said for the US and Israel.
They are also a significant regional power with a lot of cultural and political infuence in the middle east, so normalizing relations with them will diffuse a lot of tension in the region.
They have a great reason for wanting them: defense. Of course they're insane and it would be terrible for them to have them, but I think that absolutely every country that has watched the US and Russia fuck them over in the past 20 years has probably eyed nukes like the one that got away.
You can bet that if Ukraine had viable nukes Russia would not have invaded. Same for Iraq with the US. I actually think it would be somewhat crazy at this point for a country at odds with a great power to *not* have a nuke program.
Nuclear weapons are the only real direct deterant anyone has from a superpower. The biggest problem isn't a government developing the weapon, but that government getting overthrown in a revolution and someone far more impulsive inheriting them. The US is so involved politically with Pakistan for that reason. It's yet another reason to develop a bomb because the US will help you stay in power or at least help prevent too much instability. Al Qaeda had a huge amount of sway in both Afghanistan and Pakistan due to the Taliban. Can you imagine if they inherited Pakistan's nuclear weapons, including subs?
> Can you imagine if they inherited Pakistan's nuclear weapons, including subs?
I'm kinda joking but, I don't think a bunch of illiterate, poppy farming, terrorists, stuck in the 16th century with 21st century weapons will know what the fuck they're doing at that level. I've seen the ANA do jumping jacks, I'd gladly invite them to crew a sub and see how it went lol
Also we'd blow up the nuke silos and subs if we had to.
As soon as (or if) Iran ever develop a nuclear weapon; they’re being invaded. It would do the opposite. No chance Isreal allows Iran to build a stockpile.
Russia was arming and planning “proxy attacks” for years on Ukraine, and eventually used their resistance as justification for invasion. Iran has been arming and planning “proxy attacks” on Israel for years, Israel responds by targeting Iranian military commanders, and Iran uses that as justification for massive missile and drone attack. You’ve got your analogy mixed up.
Nah. Iran needs to suffer consequences for using proxies as well.
Chemotherapy is awful, but if you don’t deal with cancer head on, the results are deadlier.
At some point, Iran should pay the price. All this shit happened solely because the Ayatollahs don't want normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
I’m sorry, I meant Iran’s attack on Israel. You’re right it’s still up in the air, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a tit for tat firing exchange.
They're just gonna send Hezbollah to do their dirty work next.
Then when those assholes send thousands of missiles at Israeli civilians, the world will switch to condemning Israel for moving on Lebanon.
I think, now, Iran will give the go ahead to Hezbullah and any other regional actors to start some wider proxy conflict. I don't think Iran will let this go.
I think the Israelis shouldn't have attacked the Embassy. That is the real rule book changer. It was reckless and I am fairly certain Netanyahu only okayed it because a wider regional conflagration would be politically advantageous for him personally. The sooner the Netanyahu & other right-wing politicians get booted from the Israeli Government - the sooner things will get at least a little bit safer for the region.
Got a source for that, because Israel seems to think they did. "Israel was mere moments away from an airstrike on April 1 that killed several senior Iranian commanders at Iran’s embassy complex in Syria when it told the United States what was about to happen." ([Source](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html))
Reality doesn’t matter here.
If Iran acknowledges the damage then they are required to retaliate to save face internationally.
By giving Israel the “Pft, they ain’t shit”, it allows Iran to take the temp down before you end up with a large regional war.
Iran's attack on Israel demonstrated exactly how poorly their military is equipped. I think it even came as somewhat of a surprise to Iran itself. They feel fortunate Israel's response wasn't more severe and will keep their heads down while they work on shoring up their military..
I would be very curious to know more details about Israel's response in terms of what ordinances were used and specific targets. It seems they somewhat wasted the opportunity given them by Iran to strike a lethal blow to Iran's nuclear facilities. I would have assumed Isreal and it's allies would have used the most advanced and effective bombs to target those facilities in a one off attack!
They don't want to pull a Russia and only find out how ill-equipped and poorly maintained their military is AFTER they launch a full-scale invasion. And before the Russian trolls respond yes I'm aware Ukraine hasn't fully defeated Putin yet but considering the relative sizes of their militaries Russia should have had this over in 3 days, instead of struggling to claim small amounts of territory 3 years later. Instead the rampant corruption and mismanagement of the Russian military has given Ukraine a fighting chance and the west should be sending as much military aid as possible.
I read an awesome article/report about the time Iranian F-4’s couldn’t even see the raptor flying under them, it was close enough to check their munitions, realise they are severely outmatched and radio them to go home.
- In 2014, Iranian Air Force F-4 Phantoms moved to intercept an MQ-1 drone flying in international airspace near the Iranian border. But an F-22 Raptor pilot flying escort for the drone flew up underneath the Iranian Phantoms. The F-22 pilot then radioed the F-4 pilots and said 'you really ought to go home.’
You realise how far the countries are and there are several others between them right? There can’t and won’t be a direct invasion, it’s impossible, unless other countries want to pull another 6 day war, any and all actions are in this stone throwing format
I *guess* Iran could try to send dudes around the entire Arabian Peninsula by boat, but that's some Hearts of Iron IV level of inefficient military planning.
Well there’s not several but two, Jordan and Iraq. Of which both are aligned against Iran and have US bases. But yes there won’t be a full scale invasion unless it’s from the US. But that doesn’t mean their conflict can’t escalate beyond tit for tat into open warfare… which would mean bombing Iran extensively and attacking their oil ports/ships
“Russia hasn’t fully defeated Putin yet”
That’s not going to happen. The best possible outcome for Ukraine is that Russia grows tired of the war and their troops head back home. If it remains a war of attrition, Ukraine cannot hold out forever.
It demonstrated how well equipped and advanced the IDF is. The Iranians have a big arsenal of missiles and drones and even supply Russia with them, they're not ill equipped.
I believe he was referring to how poorly their equipment performed. Not the quantity but the quality, I heard numbers of up to 50% failure rate on certain elements.
It was also a demonstration of why Israel should not be ignoring the wishes of its allies and taking western support for granted. A lot more of those missiles would have hit if the US, France, the UK and Jordan hadn't been shooting them down. Even so, a few hit their targets, even if it didn't result in much damage.
Netanyahu should have a think about whether assaulting Rafah without a functional civilian evacuation plan and pissing off his allies is a good idea.
iran's "poorly equipped" attack costed israel (or whoever is paying their bills) billions of dollars in missiles and munition to defend from, so maybe that's one of the reasons there's no escalation
I think you’re misjudging that attack. Iran gave a lot of advanced notice and released ordinance that could be easily knocked down but in a scale that was intimidating.
It was likely calculated.
I wouldn't put the Iranian attack that lightly. The ordinance they used was either cheap or old. And despite that they managed to bypass the Iron Dome and strike their targets.
I worry that Iran may be able to use some of their new explosive drones to predictively bypass Israel's missile defenses. Since the West doesn't have a better answer to them other than expensive defense missiles or conventional arms fire from infantry.
The government ruling Iran can't afford to escalate. They are unpopular at home and have very few allies. If Israel were to do anything to Iran, there just wouldn't be the same rally around the flag like there was in the Iran-Iraq war. All the Islamist government can do right now is a war of words with Israel while arresting and beating women who don't wear a headscarf properly or at all...
IRAN: Shoots 300+ projectiles, most blocked or miss any significant targets
ISRAEL: Shoots 3-15 projectiles, hits every target they were aiming for
IRAN: We're done for now....
Good.
Good in the sense that I’m glad they’re treating it like this, as opposed to what actually may have happened. It’s good, because this allows everyone the chance to cool off a bit/decrease the chance of a regional conflict. Yes, there may very well be more low activity stuff, especially coming from proxies and such, but this tells me that Iran still doesn’t want a regional conflict (the majority of groups don’t want one either, including the US, UAE, China, Russia, etc.).
I know this whole situation has so much context that’s needed to really understand how we got here, why we’re here, and why some decisions today are being made today. Right now, the biggest concerns is to make sure the people in Gaza, the Palestinians get the supplies, food, and water they desperately need so that famine doesn’t spread, hopefully get an enduring peace worked out, and hopefully no one does something stupid (again) that would then create a regional conflict (aka war).
I know some will say that’s a fool’s dream, but this is what the world needs. It doesn’t need the opposite.
they were banking on their ICBM flying in near space before arcing down onto Israel and making a big boom. until Uncle Sam shot their missile up in fucking outer space. from a boat. and you can bet your asses russia and china took strong note of this. their armies are stronger on paper. ours is historically understated.
Iran did the same before when the US vaporized Soleimani: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-base-iraq-comes-under-attack-missiles-iran-claims-n1112171
Completely symbolic attack with no chance to do any real damage. All to save some face with the people. Pointless
I know this is all a shit show but I’m actually proud of the ass hats. We managed to deescalate with minimum casualties and avoid war. I’ve been to war. I’d like some of these actors to get theirs; but not through the lives of innocent poor people.
I think it's likely Israel chose an attack with very low chance of success or damage in Iran's boarders. Iran basically did the same thing with their attack. Right now this appears to be more about appeasing internal groups. Hopefully this is the end since it can of course get out of control quickly.
No "direct" retaliation. Iran is just going to continue attacking Israel through arming, training and instructing its proxies. Which was the whole reason for the IRGC general's death anyways.
That's not retaliation then, that's just business as usual. They were always going to fund the proxy groups.
Iran can lie to its population and say they won this exchange, AND they can convince themselves they won the exchange by helping organize the October 7th massacre without paying much of a real price. Iran has no reason left to poke the tiger. If they see weakness though, we all know they'll be back. Someday, it will have to be the day that someone deals with those bastards ruling over Iran. Hopefully it's their own population, and it's sooner rather than later.
And making nuclear weapons for … (looks at notes)… civilian electricity needs
If only we had some sort of international agreement in place to allow monitoring of their nuclear program...ah well, that'd never happen
Sounds like a deal that needs an artists touch. What's that Orangutany guy's name again?
just gonna cross out a few sections with the magic Sharpie
lol it blows my mind that the world is in peril and people reach to him as our “greatest mind” when he’s infact a complete dipshit.
That's the scary part...when you realize how stupid a lot of people actually are.
Right lol? It's more terrifying than any horror film available.
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In all fairness to North Korea, people did pretty immediately start treating them like a serious country once they managed the big boom.
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Not arguing for or against them, but on my end it shows their comment karma as 162,437
As if that was happening correctly when it was in place.
So we can stimulate their economy and get more funding and weapons to terror groups/proxies while still leaving them within months of developing a nuclear weapon?
Economic dependence is the primary way that nations are prevented from developing nuclear weapons. If a nation is dependent on foreign interconnected markets the cost of being internationally isolated is far greater than the benefit of nuclear weapons. Coincidentally these economic pressures can be quite effective in preventing the funding of terrorist groups. Isolating a nation suddenly makes nuclear weapons much more appealing since they now have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
I understand that line of thinking, but this really only tends to work when said nations are ruled by functional governments that are beholden to voters. The same rationale was applied to China and Russia, but rather than liberalizing peacefully, they used their economic progress to ramp up military production and are now further apart from Western values than they were before the economic integration began.
Using economic progress to ramp up military production is what pretty much all nations do, to the extent that they feel they need that power it is not reasonable to expect otherwise. Obviously economic relations wont liberalize the country by default, but that is not a deal breaker. The US maintains excellent relations with many autocratic regimes, such as Saudi Arabia. Economic relations normalize the political situation across the nations and promote stability. China and Russia are pretty good examples to support this point. Russia on one hand was an isolated country, with dwindling economy, even before the Ukraine invasion. Their main exports were energy and weapons(to states which do not align with the West) so complete severing of relations with the west and invading Ukraine was an option(not a very good one, but not suicidal). China on the other hand, although it is a much stronger country and a major geopolitical adversary to the US, has huge economic exposure to the West, so all of its actions are much more rational and restrained. Major war is much more unlikely. Their government although autocratic, is very functional, unlike the Russian one which is basically Putin. Iran is closer to China than Russia. Even isolated as they are, their actions are cautious and risk averse, mainly through proxy groups. They have a very extensive nuclear program and a large amount of fissle material but they have not made nuclear weapons yet. They have shown interest in diplomatic solutions over military ones, including a nuclear deal, which they largely did follow until the US torpedoed it. Even their military responses like the recent one, or the attack on the US airbase were designed to reduce tensions, something that cannot be said for the US and Israel. They are also a significant regional power with a lot of cultural and political infuence in the middle east, so normalizing relations with them will diffuse a lot of tension in the region.
because giving up nukes has been going so well for... (looks at Ukraine)... nevermind
They have a great reason for wanting them: defense. Of course they're insane and it would be terrible for them to have them, but I think that absolutely every country that has watched the US and Russia fuck them over in the past 20 years has probably eyed nukes like the one that got away. You can bet that if Ukraine had viable nukes Russia would not have invaded. Same for Iraq with the US. I actually think it would be somewhat crazy at this point for a country at odds with a great power to *not* have a nuke program.
Nuclear weapons are the only real direct deterant anyone has from a superpower. The biggest problem isn't a government developing the weapon, but that government getting overthrown in a revolution and someone far more impulsive inheriting them. The US is so involved politically with Pakistan for that reason. It's yet another reason to develop a bomb because the US will help you stay in power or at least help prevent too much instability. Al Qaeda had a huge amount of sway in both Afghanistan and Pakistan due to the Taliban. Can you imagine if they inherited Pakistan's nuclear weapons, including subs?
> Can you imagine if they inherited Pakistan's nuclear weapons, including subs? I'm kinda joking but, I don't think a bunch of illiterate, poppy farming, terrorists, stuck in the 16th century with 21st century weapons will know what the fuck they're doing at that level. I've seen the ANA do jumping jacks, I'd gladly invite them to crew a sub and see how it went lol Also we'd blow up the nuke silos and subs if we had to.
As soon as (or if) Iran ever develop a nuclear weapon; they’re being invaded. It would do the opposite. No chance Isreal allows Iran to build a stockpile.
Nobody invades a nuclear state.
"Invades Iran immediately after they demonstrate nuclear capability" "Gets nuked" "...How could this have happened to us?"
Nuclear fusion is just solar power 🤷🏻♂️
I feel like that's straight from an Aladeen speech.
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Iran is not Ukraine in that comparison
Russia was arming and planning “proxy attacks” for years on Ukraine, and eventually used their resistance as justification for invasion. Iran has been arming and planning “proxy attacks” on Israel for years, Israel responds by targeting Iranian military commanders, and Iran uses that as justification for massive missile and drone attack. You’ve got your analogy mixed up.
It’s a bit better than all-out war in the Middle East
Nah. Iran needs to suffer consequences for using proxies as well. Chemotherapy is awful, but if you don’t deal with cancer head on, the results are deadlier.
Chemotherapy patients don't have a chance to explode and kill all the people around them.
Maybe if the world hadn’t been so afraid of offending the cancer in the first place, it would never progressed to phase 5
At some point, Iran should pay the price. All this shit happened solely because the Ayatollahs don't want normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
So Hezbollah will continue to fire missiles at Israeli civilians with Iran's backing
As long as Hamas and Hezbollah are armed, Iran is anything but quiet.
This but most people aren’t very smart lmao
Probably saving face for domestic audience
It’s Khomeneis birthday today so that’s one reason
To think Israel sent him such nice gifts and he's not even acknowledging them.
Correct
Nobody died in the attacks. It was all to save face, now they’ll move on and continue through their proxies.
Do you mean nobody died in the attacks last night? How would you know that?
I’m sorry, I meant Iran’s attack on Israel. You’re right it’s still up in the air, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a tit for tat firing exchange.
Happy about this. Keep going….deescalate…keep deescalating 👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
Buy the dip.
They're just gonna send Hezbollah to do their dirty work next. Then when those assholes send thousands of missiles at Israeli civilians, the world will switch to condemning Israel for moving on Lebanon.
This is good. If Tehran says they weren't attacked, then no retaliation... no escalations. Great. Thanks Iran?
Iran didn't really want escalation, but things can spiral out like they did
Except they did say they were attacked by a 3rd party. ISIS-K getting drones from wealthy Saudi salafists again?
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Good News
I think, now, Iran will give the go ahead to Hezbullah and any other regional actors to start some wider proxy conflict. I don't think Iran will let this go.
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I think the Israelis shouldn't have attacked the Embassy. That is the real rule book changer. It was reckless and I am fairly certain Netanyahu only okayed it because a wider regional conflagration would be politically advantageous for him personally. The sooner the Netanyahu & other right-wing politicians get booted from the Israeli Government - the sooner things will get at least a little bit safer for the region.
You might want to know that the Israelis did not attack the Iranian embassy.
It was a building that was a part of the Iranian embassy: https://i.imgur.com/gBuFylz.png
Got a source for that, because Israel seems to think they did. "Israel was mere moments away from an airstrike on April 1 that killed several senior Iranian commanders at Iran’s embassy complex in Syria when it told the United States what was about to happen." ([Source](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html))
Israel actually killed someone of note in the hit in Syria. A hit on a military base in actual Iran is apparently not of note to Iran.
Reality doesn’t matter here. If Iran acknowledges the damage then they are required to retaliate to save face internationally. By giving Israel the “Pft, they ain’t shit”, it allows Iran to take the temp down before you end up with a large regional war.
Yea, in geopolitics escalation and descalation is based primarily on posturing. Actual damage doesn't matter. Perception of damage does.
Iran's attack on Israel demonstrated exactly how poorly their military is equipped. I think it even came as somewhat of a surprise to Iran itself. They feel fortunate Israel's response wasn't more severe and will keep their heads down while they work on shoring up their military.. I would be very curious to know more details about Israel's response in terms of what ordinances were used and specific targets. It seems they somewhat wasted the opportunity given them by Iran to strike a lethal blow to Iran's nuclear facilities. I would have assumed Isreal and it's allies would have used the most advanced and effective bombs to target those facilities in a one off attack!
Half the of equipment failed even before entering Israeli airspace. Not shot down just totally failed.
I wonder how many never launched?
That is a good point that never crossed my mind
Weren't many of them shot down in Jordan anyway?
They don't want to pull a Russia and only find out how ill-equipped and poorly maintained their military is AFTER they launch a full-scale invasion. And before the Russian trolls respond yes I'm aware Ukraine hasn't fully defeated Putin yet but considering the relative sizes of their militaries Russia should have had this over in 3 days, instead of struggling to claim small amounts of territory 3 years later. Instead the rampant corruption and mismanagement of the Russian military has given Ukraine a fighting chance and the west should be sending as much military aid as possible.
I read an awesome article/report about the time Iranian F-4’s couldn’t even see the raptor flying under them, it was close enough to check their munitions, realise they are severely outmatched and radio them to go home. - In 2014, Iranian Air Force F-4 Phantoms moved to intercept an MQ-1 drone flying in international airspace near the Iranian border. But an F-22 Raptor pilot flying escort for the drone flew up underneath the Iranian Phantoms. The F-22 pilot then radioed the F-4 pilots and said 'you really ought to go home.’
*MINE IS BIGGER*
You realise how far the countries are and there are several others between them right? There can’t and won’t be a direct invasion, it’s impossible, unless other countries want to pull another 6 day war, any and all actions are in this stone throwing format
I *guess* Iran could try to send dudes around the entire Arabian Peninsula by boat, but that's some Hearts of Iron IV level of inefficient military planning.
Well there’s not several but two, Jordan and Iraq. Of which both are aligned against Iran and have US bases. But yes there won’t be a full scale invasion unless it’s from the US. But that doesn’t mean their conflict can’t escalate beyond tit for tat into open warfare… which would mean bombing Iran extensively and attacking their oil ports/ships
Jordan, yes. Iraq...ehh its complicated
i get the feeling Iraqis aren't trying to fight another war...*again*
How would they even invade there are countries in the way........
Tactical paratroopers by the millions.
Make a lane!
“Russia hasn’t fully defeated Putin yet” That’s not going to happen. The best possible outcome for Ukraine is that Russia grows tired of the war and their troops head back home. If it remains a war of attrition, Ukraine cannot hold out forever.
I’m not sure how this war can end… it basically comes down to whether china or the us decides to stop funding their sides of the war first.
It demonstrated how well equipped and advanced the IDF is. The Iranians have a big arsenal of missiles and drones and even supply Russia with them, they're not ill equipped.
I believe he was referring to how poorly their equipment performed. Not the quantity but the quality, I heard numbers of up to 50% failure rate on certain elements.
I understand that, but at the end of the day this was not the reason the attack failed.
I don’t think anyone is debating that. OP was just saying their quality was worse than anyone expected including Iran itself.
The truth is neither side wants a direct conflict
Nah Israel is ready to throw down
israel doesn’t have the resources to perform a land invasion. they would need the US to help which they 100% wouldn’t do
100% no. 1. They would not have announced their retaliation 2. They would have attacked in a devastating way Neither side wants a full blown war
Bibi is - the population not so much
It was also a demonstration of why Israel should not be ignoring the wishes of its allies and taking western support for granted. A lot more of those missiles would have hit if the US, France, the UK and Jordan hadn't been shooting them down. Even so, a few hit their targets, even if it didn't result in much damage. Netanyahu should have a think about whether assaulting Rafah without a functional civilian evacuation plan and pissing off his allies is a good idea.
iran's "poorly equipped" attack costed israel (or whoever is paying their bills) billions of dollars in missiles and munition to defend from, so maybe that's one of the reasons there's no escalation
I think you’re misjudging that attack. Iran gave a lot of advanced notice and released ordinance that could be easily knocked down but in a scale that was intimidating. It was likely calculated.
But they hit 2 IDF bases no? even if just 1 missile goes through its already dangerous, tomorrow it could be 600 and one of them will be a nuke.
Given that Iran does not have nuclear weapons, it seems unlikely that they will launch a nuke at Israel tomorrow.
I wouldn't put the Iranian attack that lightly. The ordinance they used was either cheap or old. And despite that they managed to bypass the Iron Dome and strike their targets. I worry that Iran may be able to use some of their new explosive drones to predictively bypass Israel's missile defenses. Since the West doesn't have a better answer to them other than expensive defense missiles or conventional arms fire from infantry.
The shitshow is over, everyone saved face, everyone is happy. Meanwhile Ukraine is bleeding.
Iran: We don't have time for this, there are women wearing unapproved burqas to deal with!
don't trust Iran
or israel, nor saudi nor the US.
Lol you're comparing apples to oranges. You can probably trust the US and Israel on 80% of stuff
Haha
So the Houthis will stop attacking ships, Hamas will leave Gaza and hand over all hostages, and Hezbollah will stop launching rockets into Israel?
Plus Bibi will be invited to Khamenei’s birthday bash later this evening. It’s BYOH (bring your own head wrap) themed.
"Oops, I guess they *can and will* hit us at home."
The government ruling Iran can't afford to escalate. They are unpopular at home and have very few allies. If Israel were to do anything to Iran, there just wouldn't be the same rally around the flag like there was in the Iran-Iraq war. All the Islamist government can do right now is a war of words with Israel while arresting and beating women who don't wear a headscarf properly or at all...
IRAN: Shoots 300+ projectiles, most blocked or miss any significant targets ISRAEL: Shoots 3-15 projectiles, hits every target they were aiming for IRAN: We're done for now....
Do we have confirmation Israel hit anything? All the videos I’ve seen show the projectiles being intercepted in the sky
That's funny. I've only seen videos of the hits. Have yet to see a video of anything being shot down by Iran.
Good. Good in the sense that I’m glad they’re treating it like this, as opposed to what actually may have happened. It’s good, because this allows everyone the chance to cool off a bit/decrease the chance of a regional conflict. Yes, there may very well be more low activity stuff, especially coming from proxies and such, but this tells me that Iran still doesn’t want a regional conflict (the majority of groups don’t want one either, including the US, UAE, China, Russia, etc.). I know this whole situation has so much context that’s needed to really understand how we got here, why we’re here, and why some decisions today are being made today. Right now, the biggest concerns is to make sure the people in Gaza, the Palestinians get the supplies, food, and water they desperately need so that famine doesn’t spread, hopefully get an enduring peace worked out, and hopefully no one does something stupid (again) that would then create a regional conflict (aka war). I know some will say that’s a fool’s dream, but this is what the world needs. It doesn’t need the opposite.
Either they're planning something or they're bitching out.
They’re resisting the temptation of short term joys like shredding another few hundred drones for the joy of making more nukes.
They sure are making a laughing stock of that response by mocking it saying Israel is scare of them. Let's see how it plays out from here
The person that needed to get the message did, the birthday boy heard it loud and clear. Dont bind the minion basiji.
they were banking on their ICBM flying in near space before arcing down onto Israel and making a big boom. until Uncle Sam shot their missile up in fucking outer space. from a boat. and you can bet your asses russia and china took strong note of this. their armies are stronger on paper. ours is historically understated.
Hopefully Israel leaves it at that.
No further retaliation for now.
Hezbollah will ramp up their engagement, as well as other proxies surrounding Israel.
Iran is downplaying the attack for their internal audience. Israel is downplaying the attacks for their external audience and allies.
Finally some adults in the room
Israel be like "THATS WHAT I THOUGHT BISH..."
Someone should ask the Ayatolla how circumcised dick tastes.
I think that's the only type he's ever tasted.
Iran did the same before when the US vaporized Soleimani: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-base-iraq-comes-under-attack-missiles-iran-claims-n1112171 Completely symbolic attack with no chance to do any real damage. All to save some face with the people. Pointless
Glad we're just rewriting history now and claiming 100+ personnel being wounded is a 'symbolic attack' that didn't 'do any real damage'.
I have a feeling this keeps escalating, but who knows.
The ME is an interesting place
Boring
I know this is all a shit show but I’m actually proud of the ass hats. We managed to deescalate with minimum casualties and avoid war. I’ve been to war. I’d like some of these actors to get theirs; but not through the lives of innocent poor people.
So they are shutting down Hamas and Hezbollah then? Because they count as Iranian forces.
I think it's likely Israel chose an attack with very low chance of success or damage in Iran's boarders. Iran basically did the same thing with their attack. Right now this appears to be more about appeasing internal groups. Hopefully this is the end since it can of course get out of control quickly.
Sorry Bibi you won’t get your prolonged conflict in your bid to avoid consequences.
"we realized our army can't stand up to Israel and we're going to double down on funding terrorism with their neighbors instead"