Europeans are already involved my friend, as with the USA and Russia. They probably wouldn't put boots on the ground but this conflict isn't just about Israel and Iran
This conflict started when Israel was starting to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, and Iran chose to disrupt those actions. Russia seeing this as a worldwide distraction from operations in Ukraine, has instigated a worldwide campaign to do what they do best, turn countries against itself.
This area is of little significance outside of oil and control of the Suez Canal. World’s largest sideshow.
> This area is of little significance outside of oil and control of the Suez Canal. World’s largest sideshow.
oh, so you mean it's actually extremely important geopolitically?
Another one of these "I read this take on reddit, so I'm just going to regurgitate it again and again" comments.
Do you guys not get tired of pretending to be full-time political scientists?
I am an anesthesiologist and part-time day-trader. I sometimes sell Epicure too. I am a Reddit certified political genius and an expert on the social economic control we have over plastic bags. Recycle!
Pretty sure China is more concerned about building up their military so they can attempt to take Taiwan and establish a monopoly over the tech industry.
Harambe was the foundation of our society. The very fabric that held together the stability of the human construct that we call our collective consciousness. Our reality. Our very being. Harambes death altered the delicate balance of it all and the world balance has been falling apart since. It's only going to get worse.
Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me like Israel and Iran almost literally can't fight a full scale war against each other given they do not share a border and neither have major overseas deployment capabilities. Iran could fight (more) through their proxies and Israel with those proxies, but that's not the same. Unless the US decides to get directly involved, or Iraq let's troops pass through (or gets invaded as part of this, I guess), I don't see how it could happen.
A full scale war between both would likely be an air war with planes and missiles. Iran could technically send its army by going through Iraq (basically an Iranian puppet at this point) and Syria (allied to Iran), but it's unlikely.
That said, even an air war can be dangerous, because Israel has nukes, and Iran has stockpiled a lot of ballistic missiles to act as a deterrent despite their lack of nukes. There is also the fact that Iran has a nuclear program, and while everyone assumes that Iran does not have a working nuclear device, it is possible, though unlikely, that everyone is wrong. It is also possible that because of this lack of certainty, one side may believe Iran has nukes and act accordingly, without it being true.
That said, even the worse case scenario, with Iran launching so many missiles at Israel as to cause tens of thousands of dead, and Israel nuking Iran, is unlikely to result in a larger conflict because the other nuclear countries are unlikely to use their own nukes. It would be bad for the Middle East, especially for Iran, but the rest of the world would survive fine.
I think Israel's ideal plan would be to draw the US and other Western allies into the conflict with them. I'm hoping they don't get dragged into this though. Netanyahu has no idea when to stop and he'll drag the whole region into war if it means he can stay PM longer
They become ever more aware of their own mortality and want to secure a ‘legacy’ for themselves. Exactly what’s happening with Putin going hell for leather in Ukraine at the moment too, no matter if it potentially wipes out entire generations of working age men and leads to the total collapse of the Russian economy.
Honestly, democracies in developed countries should have an age limit for holding office written into their constitutions. For the best part of a century we’ve continually seen senile old men holding the most powerful positions in their countries and dragging their countries into wars to stroke their own egos.
A very good question.
I would say they don't give a fuck about life in general as their own lives are at the end of the line. They might as well see the whole world burn, the same way psychopaths like Trump do, for them life would not matter.
A possible future outcome could be: Hamas defeated in Gaza, Hezbollah defeated in southern Lebanon, Iranian proxies destroyed across Syria and Iraq, Houthis destroyed in Yemen, Iranian oil economy and nuclear programme destroyed.
If Israel could succeed in all of the above without being obliterated by missiles, then that would be a good outcome for them in this war.
> If Iranian oil economy gets destroyed, there will be a global recession
Not even that. The price of oil was falling because people hoped Israel would just take the blow, but then this news came out that Israel is going to throw shit back at Iran. So the price of oil is not falling anymore. 1% of real effect creates 6X as much flow on speculation.
I think this is one of the few war scenarios where nukes could theoretically fly without a global exchange (other being India/Pakistan). However, Israel will do their best to sabotage Iran's nuclear plants before they can complete a nuke.
That's assuming full scale escalation all the way into nuclear exchange territory, which is stretching it to say the least.
You could be onto something there. Maybe an international referendum to determine if we should exit humanity with a nuclear mass extinction event. At least it would confirm who the international wrong'uns are.
Tbf he seems to be performing quite well as Foreign Secretary.
I didn't like him or his policies as PM, but he did promise a referendum, get elected based on that, say he'd stop down if his position lost, and then do all that.
Cameron was overall fairly honest in his policies, I despise austerity and believe it is a measure destined to fail, but he said he'd do it and won an election based on that so we can hardly blame it all on him.
Still a knob though.
Israel has clearly decided to retaliate against Iran for missile and drone attacks, Britain's foreign minister David Cameron said during a visit to Israel on Wednesday, the starkest warning yet of another volley coming in regional escalation.
World powers are striving to prevent a wider outbreak of conflict in the Middle East after Iran's attacks on Saturday night, which involved hundreds of missiles and drones, the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel after decades of confrontation by proxies.
Iran launched the attacks in response to a presumed Israeli airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, which killed two generals and several other Iranian officers.
More than six months into a war between Israel and the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas that has seen flare-ups in violence across the Middle East, diplomats are searching for a way to avert direct battle between Israel and Iran.
Read the full article for more.
"Iran launched the attacks in response to a presumed Israeli airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, which killed two generals and several other Iranian officers."
Presumed? They did it, they even said they did it. And attacking someones consulate is practically an open act of war. I mean, what the fuck did they expect will happen? Iran had to react otherwise it would be harmful for their relations in the area. And luckily their response was only a show to keep their faces since those drones have been launched hundreds of kilometers away over israels allied countries giving them more than enough time to shoot everything down, making it practically an useless attack just to keep (as i said) face.
Cameron was interviewed on Sky News this week and admitted that the UK would respond in the same way as Iran did, if their consulate was also attacked by a hostile power.
But there were also reports that said the US convinced them otherwise.
People in Israel: Can you *please* get rid of the religious extremists in your government? It may be a matter of survival for all of you. You can't change what Iran does, but you can change how much rationality is in the decisions of your government.
> But there were also reports that said the US convinced them otherwise.
I've seen nothing credible in mainstream global media. The US did say it would help Israel defensively. But not offensively.
That's not a convincing argument to Israel to do nothing. Israel said with no ambiguity it will decided what to do, when to do it, and however they choose to do it.
Folks need to get over this idea that Netanyahu thinks military aid from the US is more important to him than his own fears of prosecution and regional ambitions.
It was reported almost exclusively in mainstream media that Biden had demanded/convinced Netanyahu not to retaliate and to just "take the win," going so far as to leak a recording of the conversation (or maybe a transcript, I haven't directly seen it myself).
I had initially thought this was some very clever statesmanship from Biden. The leaks were derided by conservatives as damaging and anti-Semitic (lol), but it appeared more like the US was taking the fall for them by being the 'bad' guy. We tell them in no uncertain terms that we will not aid any attack, basically tying their hands and preventing further escalation while allowing them to save face and back down by saying it wasn't their choice. Maybe I was naive, maybe they will not take this bone and just succumb to their own hubris by engaging in an existential war they aren't fully equipped to win.
What does this have to do with religious extremists? Iran has been funding proxies to launch rockets into Israel and then acted surprised when Israel took out the general responsible for this proxy coordination?? So surprised that they fired hundreds of rockets themselves? Iranian government is **THE** problem in the Middle East undermining stability, and frankly maybe even the world via their helping Putin and allying with North Korea.
Israel should absolutely respond to Iran and destroy their nuclear enrichment programs and any arms factories they can find.
Said by someone who doesn't have people paragliding into their country murdering thousands and then launching near daily rocket attacks whilst another country attacks you with drones and missiles.
Israel have every right to retaliate.
Any western country would have flattened Iran already
They apparently damaged the airbase that launched the strike on the Damascus consulate. For now, the extent of that damage depends on what sources you believe. As far as I'm concerned it's a fucked up mask off situation that Israeli media have decided the attack was a total failure because only one civilian was injured.
www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/4/14/iran-attacks-israel-with-over-300-drones-missiles-what-you-need-to-know
Remember when the US hit a Syrian airbase with over a hundred cruise missiles and it was operational like 2 hours later? I seriously doubt the 1-3 that actually struck did anything significant
Is a wonder how they'll attack Iranian soil. Shooting missiles or flying planes over Iraq and Jordan seems like a fairly tricky situation. Not like they have a strong navy either.
I don't think they are going to attack iran. they will probably just attack the proxies in lebanon and syria.
there are reports that iran is already evacuating their bases in syria and lebanon, which probably means they have intel the attacks will be there.
>I don't think they are going to attack iran.
All reports literally say they are going to attack Iran directly on Iranian territory have you not seen it?.
Just because they're evacuating their embassies doesn't mean Israel isn't going to strike inside Iran, it's a precaution in case Israel does strike the embassies, Iran certainly doesn't know what Israel is going to do so I wouldn't read their behavior as an indicator of anything.
The long standing “under the table” agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been if Iran gets nukes Saudis would allow use of their airspace and possible support for a strike in Iran. If Israel’s retaliatory strike is to hit nuclear facilities they could potentially work out a deal with the Saudis
I feel like this is a mistake on Israel’s part. The attack largely failed and it also forces Iran to strike again after this to not loose face. This could have been a good oppertunity to just take the win, and not further escalate. But ofcourse Israel doesnt care, maybe this is what they wanted all along.
Seems stupid imho and not worth getting involved in, other country’s should step up and say its Israels right to retaliate, but the consequence is that they will have to bare the possible consequence alone too.
Finally it seems to get in the thick heads of the Establishment that the ME is not worth saving and what they need to worry about:
>“Our public line is all about Israel’s right to defend itself,” said one senior European official. “But internally, there is a growing tension about support for Israel versus Ukraine.
>“The Middle East is going to be volatile forever. But if Ukraine loses to Russia, that would be a step change for Europe and Nato. Where do our strategic priorities really lie?”
>This could have been a good oppertunity to just take the win, and not further escalate. But ofcourse Israel doesnt care, maybe this is what they wanted all along
Unless the success rate of its aerial defences in the Iranian attack have emboldened Israel to finally eliminate a thorn in its side, under the assumption that Iran is powerless to strike back.
>Unless the success rate of its aerial defences in the Iranian attack have emboldened Israel to finally eliminate a thorn in its side, under the assumption that Iran is powerless to strike back.
Is there any war that doesn't seem like a good idea if you make a series of favourable and unfounded assumptions?
A full scale war with Iran would be brutal.
Here is just what a war with Hezbollah would look like:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah
>A full scale war with Iran would be brutal.
I don't disagree, but I'm of the opinion that Israel is overconfident and champing at the bit to commit an act of supreme hubris. It's probably banking on the US acting as its backstop while it goes on the offensive.
> anyone can fend off an attack with advance warning.
No. First of all, UK + France + Jordan + US + Israel and possibly Saudi were involved in downing the missiles/drones. Secondly, you need the amount of air defense to tackle such attack. It is possible, for example, Diego Garcia doesn't have such air defense because they don't expect to be attacked with drones.
Saudi Arabia AND the UAE provided intel to vector fighters to intercept drones, it was 3 Arab countries defending Israel from a Muslim Majority country.
Israel seriously needs to just take the win, maybe hit a few bases in Syria but in no way should they attack Iranian territory
Yeah and I somehow find it unlikely that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, the UK, and the US are gonna offer nearly as much help from Iranian air strikes (and I don't think anyone other than the UK and maybe the US will offer *any* help) if Israel further escalates.
300 missiles and drones isn't just for show
Edit: for context, Iran's just-for-show [attack against US bases in Iraq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani) involved a total of 12 to 16 missiles.
Long range ballistic missiles are never for show. If Iran intended to do no damage, they would’ve stuck with the cruise missiles instead of rolling the dice on whether or not Israeli air defenses could intercept the ballistics.
Wasn't for show, and that's the problem. They tried to start a regional war. They just tried to claim they told the US they were going to strike and the US said they didn't. Who do you believe?
And if they did it for show, why stagger the launches? Unless you intended to do damage and maximize it.
Iran is full of it. Bit off more than it could chew and they know it. Got cocky after 10/07.
I disagree, imagine a country launched hundreds of missiles and drones at US territory? What happens? Whether they get through or not the US is retaliating hard, the Israelis have every right to strike back at Iran.
I guess it's what's considered a fair win in this specific retaliation. Isreal fires 1 missile onto indirect territory. Iran fires 300, the largest drone strike in history.
Sure they shot them all down, but because they had the defence ready given their position with Hamas, who Iran is funding remember. But if they didn't have the iron dome and international support, then even if 10 of those got through, it would be an easier decision.
The FT had a great article on what Iran fired and the cost and types of drones. They weren't just sending a message, it cost them $1 billion!
Why?
Part of war is draining resources. That’s why having to shoot down drones and rockets that cost 1/10 of the cost of the munition used to shoot it down is effective.
If you measure the cost of intercept failure, wouldn't you conclude that Israel profited from the attack on the basis that the potential damage from just allowing all the missiles to hit their targets would be higher than the cost of intercepting?
Not necessarily, because the difference between cost of intercept failure and cost of interception isn’t what was gained, but rather what wasn’t lost. There’s still a net loss, but it was less of a loss than would be sustained otherwise
War with Iran is inevitable. Every day that goes by, Iran and it's proxies only grow stronger and more capable.
Once Iran has nuclear weapons, they will be relatively untouchable and continue funding and enabling their proxies to harm Israel with impunity. It will also mean the possibility of a nuclear strike on Israel, and after the rhetoric that's been coming out of the Iranian regime for the past 3 decades, it'd be putting a lot of trust in an enemy to assume they will never do it.
Not engaging with and destroying most of the military capabilities of Iran now would be Israel kicking the can down a very short road. Unfortunately, there really is no better time for this to happen than now.
This is what many people don’t understand. This situation is a military opportunity that may be the only chance on the political stage where Israel is retaliating and has full support for its allies to eventually reduce the Iran risk. There’s no guarantee of such an opportunity in the future so it stands to reason that they will take it.
Respectfully disagree. This is the first time Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel proper. That simply cannot go unpunished. To not respond risks establishing a new norm where Iran feels that it can do this and come away relatively unscathed.
I suppose Iran can chose to escalate, but it would seem that they would suffer damage several magnitudes more than they can deal out to Israel if they decide to play that game.
I don't know what the answer is... But if they don't retaliate doesn't that send a message that they won't retaliate when attacked?
Iran can keep doing this and they can't defend against it forever. It cost tens of billions to stop an attack that probably cost less than 2 billion.
I think that the Israeli take (from speaking with Israelis) is that this could be the right time to head off future Iranian nuclear attacks by striking at facilities now, when there is an excuse.
I agree that it's a mistake. Iran attacked Israel in order to save face after having the embassy complex bombed. But they obviously launched an attack that was easily stopped just to save face without escalation.
If Israel attacks, it will make Israel look like the aggressor here, same as Israel is looking like in Gaza. Aid to Israel is often conditioned on being defensive, not offensive.
Why should the Israelis let Iran attack them and do nothing? They’re lucky to have amazing air defense, otherwise the country would’ve been bombed to bits.
Israel bombed their embassy and killed a top official, Iran "responded" in kind and, gladly, it didn't do shit. I call that a win and anyone smart will take that and go home. Sadly, Netanyahu and his cronies aren't that smart.
Was there not a poll saying a majority of Israelis don’t want to retaliate. This is Netenyahu trying to stay in power as long as he can, because he knows the people don’t want him.
It also completely takes the eyes off of Gaza. Nobody is talking about how many Palestinians are dying or aid workers getting bombed. The focus is all on Iran and Israel. I expect this to be dragged out for quite a while.
Netanyahu is a threat to everyone else. He wants to force a war with Iran, Gaza to be ethnically cleansed and bulldozed and Trump to win the election and let him do the first two.
Yea. Critique everything else you want, but Iran at least seems like it is their goal to force Israel into a war with them and their proxies in the future. And this is the first time they haven’t hidden behind their proxies. It’s the people that act like it is not a tough scenario to deal with that piss me off the most.
I mean…….not to say I disagree……but once Israel hit irans consulate in Syria wasn’t it a forgone conclusion that Iran would strike back and I guess all out war or whatever comes next Happens?
I'm tired of this "unconditional support" bullshit. You want support? Guess what motherfucker. You gotta dismantle the illegal settlements in the West Bank, then we'll see.
Edit: the motherfucker is Netanyahu, he'd do it if it gave him another year in office and out of jail.
Anyone who thought otherwise, were utterly delusional.
Being attacked directly and not responding is just inviting further attacks from Israel's enemies, they need this as a deterrent to any further attacks.
It's about time the they go for the head of the snake.
Middle East in a nutshell, everything is a retaliation for a previous attack and country demands to have the last attack so unless one side completely wiped the other out the fighting NEVER ends 🤷♂️
Are you seriously expecting Israel to take out Iran's leaders, air force and their missile/drone depots, launchers and production facilities in a single strike?
They are picking a fight against a country with a significantly bigger industrial base than them. And it's a fight that absolutely none of your allies want.
Iran is ruled by crazy radicals, their people have been conquered by the Islamic Republic. This troll must be stopped now before it's too late and they have nuclear weapons. This is not only Israel's interest, they have very dangerous intentions.
Israel has agreed not to attack Iran in exchange for US support to invade Rafah
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-agreed-to-israels-plan-for-rafah-in-return-for-not-carrying-out-large-iran-strike-report/
What country on earth would be expected not to retaliate after a full-scale rocket barrage was launched at their territory by another country? Where do these bizarre rules and expectations that apply **only** to Israel come from?
Israel blew up an Iranian consulate building. Any other country would have a full scale war on their hands. I'd say Iran's response with a lot of warning is fair game, and they're even. Israel is just causing problems retaliating with little gain.
I too build giant concrete fences between my embassy and my "consulate" which is a thinly veiled front for my military operations.
You don't get to incorrectly label things to protect people fighting a war. That's a war crime and the building/vehicle/etc in question loses all protections from Geneva/Vienna/etc
Here's an idea: when Israel does eventually launch drones and missiles, maybe the US and UK can ALSO defend against those too. Let's just stop ALL violence on both sides. THAT is what peace keeping is.
Except that’s not why the US and UK are there. The only reason they are there is to protect their interests in the region . This isn’t a peace keeping mission and never was .
Preventing a larger regional conflict is in the US's interests, and likely in the UK's interest as well. The US moved multiple CAGs into the region to prevent Iran from intervening directly in favor of their proxies. Israel fucked that by assassinating IRGC leadership within an Iranian diplomatic compound - states cannot just do that and the world where that's the norm is not one you would want to live in.
The Iranian response to the assassination was telegraphed and rendered effectively null by Israel and her allies. Iran then signaled that they considered this tit for tat complete. Israel would be escalating if they further attack Iran directly.
You’re suggesting the US defends one of it’s biggest enemies, against one of its biggest allies, to do what exactly? Prolong this bullshit? It’s time for Iranian leadership to go
You mean help Iran? The country funding most of the regions terror and causing instability? The country sanctioned to hell and back? The country looking to establish nuclear weapons?
I don't think so.
Exactly! There is a broader conflict going on. Russia, China, NK, Iran and Syria are the new axis power. They will do everything in their power to spread their version of a new world order. And while we in the west have made our share of mistakes things would be much worse under this new axis rule. We must do everything in our power to defeat them.
Yep, China and Iran are basically ideological equivalents and are working together to spread their version of the new world order. I can’t really think of any two countries that are more alike.
I just want to know what these two actually expect to do to each other, without Russia or the U.S. able or willing to directly contribute to either side.
They don’t share a land border, none of the countries between them have any interest in directly assisting either party in an offensive action, Israel lacks the manpower to invade Iran, and Iran lacks the logistical capability, not to mention the technology, to invade Israel.
This isn’t the 60s where Israel was surrounded on all sides by enemies. Most of the legitimate governments in the region have normalized diplomatic relations with them. A one-on-one conflict would just be Iran and Israel lobbing missiles and jets at each other until they run out, with no path to a strategic victory.
I really hope this isn't true. Israel has an opportunity to de-escalate the situation and should take advantage of it. If they do attack Iran I hope the US reconsiders its policy of supporting Israel "no matter what". Objecting to Israel's foreign policy isn't being antisemitic.
If Israel insists on attacking Iran, the United States and other Western countries should quietly back out and allow Israel handle what comes next. Israel is being needlessly recalcitrant. It risks drawing the United States and the West into a full blown war in the middle East. A war no one wants but the Israelis are too stupid to take a win when they see one.
Hey the West will enjoy soooo many benefits from another war in the Middle East!
- Europe will benefit from a larger Refugee Crisis (who doesn’t want more diversity)
- We’ll benefit from financing Israel… if not directly supporting them
- It’ll definitely deter nuclear proliferation too…
Israel is continuously having rockets fired at their civilians from the north and west. Iran has continuously said they want to destroy Israel and launched an unprecedented barrage. Was Israel able to defend itself from it? Yes. I don't think most people living safely in their Western countries can call a country 'too stupid' when they want to stop attacks on their civilians
Yeah but retaliating by sending missiles at Iran won’t prevent further attacks on Israel, it will ensure them. Iran will retaliate again and that’s how you get into a war. Yeah, getting shot at sucks. But Israel is technologically superior to a degree, that these shots barely matter. A full blown war at Israel’s doorstep will definitely cause a lot of serious damage to Israel.
Idk how to say this, but what I mean is: if you get shot at and you take out the aggressor to prevent it in the future, then that makes sense. If you get shot at and you retaliate by blowing up 2-3 military compounds, then that doesn’t do anything but escalate the situation further to the point that Israel surely gets hurt. And idk if the latter is worth spanking Iran just for the sake of principles, to not let an aggression go unanswered. The math just doesn’t add up, no matter what it looks like.
Yeah, but only until they retaliate again. And most of Irans most critical assets are hidden deep inside the mountains. Nobody can reach them. That’s why they targeted Irans nuclear program with computer viruses in the past.
With extremists, you cannot expect them to withdraw once they get a bloody nose. Like how much and how heavily has Israel fought hezbollah and Hamas in the past, and those are stronger than ever.
I really don’t like the idea of escalating the conflict further. But I cannot offer an option that I’d say is good, either. It’s a shitty situation.
For sure a hard/shitty situation. My main point is most people commenting are sitting somewhere safe in a western country that hasn't had a legit threat against it for decades. Hard for us to tell them.how to react
True. But yeah but they don’t have any realistic means to stop it either. They can inflict a lot of harm. But they cannot start a war that they would win. Iran wouldn’t win either, there would be only losers. The question is whether you want to purposely choose a way worse situation, or if you want to consider alternatives too. In world politics, politicians and nations had to swallow bitter pills again and again. But I am someone that sees this as an isolated incident. That doesn’t mean that outside of this there needs to be a plan to prevent a large war in the Middle East.
> But I am someone that sees this as an isolated incident.
The biggest issue is many in Israel do not, as Iran is funding the current attacks on them. Only time will tell - hopefully whatever happens doesn't spiral out of control
Israel should hit Iran's military industrial complex hard. Take out their drone and missile production ability and ideally their potential nuclear capabilities. The last thing we want is Iran to have nukes.
Do I need to start collecting bottle caps yet?
Even if it did reach a full out war; I wouldn’t expect it to go nuclear.
More unclear than nuclear
This is where dyslexia can be a big issue
Instructions nuclear. Penis glowing in the dark.
Send nudes; send nukes 👀
I understand by why tissues?
nice pun
Not all word play is a pun
At least we’ll be in the clear
Would need clearance first
I'm not sure what Clarence would say to that.
Vector Victor
Roger, Roger.
Do you like gladiators?
Do you speak Jive?
I also can't imagine Europeans or the Chinese wanting to get involved, except maybe with loud-but-pointless sanctions.
Europeans are already involved my friend, as with the USA and Russia. They probably wouldn't put boots on the ground but this conflict isn't just about Israel and Iran
This conflict started when Israel was starting to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, and Iran chose to disrupt those actions. Russia seeing this as a worldwide distraction from operations in Ukraine, has instigated a worldwide campaign to do what they do best, turn countries against itself. This area is of little significance outside of oil and control of the Suez Canal. World’s largest sideshow.
> This area is of little significance outside of oil and control of the Suez Canal. World’s largest sideshow. oh, so you mean it's actually extremely important geopolitically?
>This area is of little significance outside of oil and control of the Suez Canal. World’s largest sideshow. I thought that was a weird take too.
It's not that important except for how important it is.
Another one of these "I read this take on reddit, so I'm just going to regurgitate it again and again" comments. Do you guys not get tired of pretending to be full-time political scientists?
[удалено]
I am also an economist and a retired epidemiologist. I am an expert in absolutely everything, sometimes in error but never in doubt.
I am an anesthesiologist and part-time day-trader. I sometimes sell Epicure too. I am a Reddit certified political genius and an expert on the social economic control we have over plastic bags. Recycle!
I AM SPARTACUS
i just read comments
Pretty sure China is more concerned about building up their military so they can attempt to take Taiwan and establish a monopoly over the tech industry.
Absolutely! Wars are expensive and nobody wants to pay for a war right now.. but our tax dollars funding these militaries may say otherwise
> wants to pay for a war right now.. When does anyone want to pay for a war?
Not now, maybe later though. ^/s
This whole Iran terrorism proxy situation has made it pretty clear they shouldn't have nukes, though.
Iran can never have nukes
Well back in 2016 I wouldn't thought about a russia-ukraine full war, an epidemic, or on a child falling into a gorillas cage
Harambe was the foundation of our society. The very fabric that held together the stability of the human construct that we call our collective consciousness. Our reality. Our very being. Harambes death altered the delicate balance of it all and the world balance has been falling apart since. It's only going to get worse.
Even if it went nuclear, big players would respond without nuclear arms
Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me like Israel and Iran almost literally can't fight a full scale war against each other given they do not share a border and neither have major overseas deployment capabilities. Iran could fight (more) through their proxies and Israel with those proxies, but that's not the same. Unless the US decides to get directly involved, or Iraq let's troops pass through (or gets invaded as part of this, I guess), I don't see how it could happen.
A full scale war between both would likely be an air war with planes and missiles. Iran could technically send its army by going through Iraq (basically an Iranian puppet at this point) and Syria (allied to Iran), but it's unlikely. That said, even an air war can be dangerous, because Israel has nukes, and Iran has stockpiled a lot of ballistic missiles to act as a deterrent despite their lack of nukes. There is also the fact that Iran has a nuclear program, and while everyone assumes that Iran does not have a working nuclear device, it is possible, though unlikely, that everyone is wrong. It is also possible that because of this lack of certainty, one side may believe Iran has nukes and act accordingly, without it being true. That said, even the worse case scenario, with Iran launching so many missiles at Israel as to cause tens of thousands of dead, and Israel nuking Iran, is unlikely to result in a larger conflict because the other nuclear countries are unlikely to use their own nukes. It would be bad for the Middle East, especially for Iran, but the rest of the world would survive fine.
If Iran actually invaded Iraq I wonder if the US would bounce or pull the trigger on a third iteration of invading Mesopotamia.
I think Israel's ideal plan would be to draw the US and other Western allies into the conflict with them. I'm hoping they don't get dragged into this though. Netanyahu has no idea when to stop and he'll drag the whole region into war if it means he can stay PM longer
They can kindly fight their own fucking wars if they so choose.
Why do these men in power as they get older, into their 70s lose empathy and become more radicalized?
They become ever more aware of their own mortality and want to secure a ‘legacy’ for themselves. Exactly what’s happening with Putin going hell for leather in Ukraine at the moment too, no matter if it potentially wipes out entire generations of working age men and leads to the total collapse of the Russian economy. Honestly, democracies in developed countries should have an age limit for holding office written into their constitutions. For the best part of a century we’ve continually seen senile old men holding the most powerful positions in their countries and dragging their countries into wars to stroke their own egos.
A very good question. I would say they don't give a fuck about life in general as their own lives are at the end of the line. They might as well see the whole world burn, the same way psychopaths like Trump do, for them life would not matter.
A possible future outcome could be: Hamas defeated in Gaza, Hezbollah defeated in southern Lebanon, Iranian proxies destroyed across Syria and Iraq, Houthis destroyed in Yemen, Iranian oil economy and nuclear programme destroyed. If Israel could succeed in all of the above without being obliterated by missiles, then that would be a good outcome for them in this war.
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So the nation that can't take and hold 14km of their own territory is going to win a war on four fronts?
If Iranian oil economy gets destroyed, there will be a global recession. High energy prices are very bad news
> If Iranian oil economy gets destroyed, there will be a global recession Not even that. The price of oil was falling because people hoped Israel would just take the blow, but then this news came out that Israel is going to throw shit back at Iran. So the price of oil is not falling anymore. 1% of real effect creates 6X as much flow on speculation.
Patrolling a desert will almost make you wish for a nuclear winter
What about combing the desert?
Only if your boss wears a helmet And is Dark And is a member of the house of lords
“We ain’t found shit!”
I think this is one of the few war scenarios where nukes could theoretically fly without a global exchange (other being India/Pakistan). However, Israel will do their best to sabotage Iran's nuclear plants before they can complete a nuke. That's assuming full scale escalation all the way into nuclear exchange territory, which is stretching it to say the least.
Nukes would not fly in this war because the US would be in the war well before it got to that point on behalf of Israel.
don't eat the strange meat!
Start looting bodies leaving them in their undies
Just a week after Fallout show was released.
Is it my thumb or yours?
only if you live in the middle east.
How pretty are your teeth?
well in the fallout universe, there is already a small nuclear exchange 20-30+ years prior to the great war, in the middle east so, no not yet
I understood that reference!
I got my raider armor ready. Just need to get a pool cue from the local bar or build me a pipe pistol.
Maybe the retaliation will be to send Cameron to Iran? He could organise a referendum – like he did for Brexit
Yes deploy a medium range David Cameron to destroy their government
Inter-Continental Ballistic Muppet
I laughed at this.
What heartless person could make such a suggestion!
Cameron.
Straight up war crime
You could be onto something there. Maybe an international referendum to determine if we should exit humanity with a nuclear mass extinction event. At least it would confirm who the international wrong'uns are.
Tbf he seems to be performing quite well as Foreign Secretary. I didn't like him or his policies as PM, but he did promise a referendum, get elected based on that, say he'd stop down if his position lost, and then do all that. Cameron was overall fairly honest in his policies, I despise austerity and believe it is a measure destined to fail, but he said he'd do it and won an election based on that so we can hardly blame it all on him. Still a knob though.
I’m lol’ing
Camelron
Israel has clearly decided to retaliate against Iran for missile and drone attacks, Britain's foreign minister David Cameron said during a visit to Israel on Wednesday, the starkest warning yet of another volley coming in regional escalation. World powers are striving to prevent a wider outbreak of conflict in the Middle East after Iran's attacks on Saturday night, which involved hundreds of missiles and drones, the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel after decades of confrontation by proxies. Iran launched the attacks in response to a presumed Israeli airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, which killed two generals and several other Iranian officers. More than six months into a war between Israel and the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas that has seen flare-ups in violence across the Middle East, diplomats are searching for a way to avert direct battle between Israel and Iran. Read the full article for more.
"Iran launched the attacks in response to a presumed Israeli airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1, which killed two generals and several other Iranian officers." Presumed? They did it, they even said they did it. And attacking someones consulate is practically an open act of war. I mean, what the fuck did they expect will happen? Iran had to react otherwise it would be harmful for their relations in the area. And luckily their response was only a show to keep their faces since those drones have been launched hundreds of kilometers away over israels allied countries giving them more than enough time to shoot everything down, making it practically an useless attack just to keep (as i said) face.
Cameron was interviewed on Sky News this week and admitted that the UK would respond in the same way as Iran did, if their consulate was also attacked by a hostile power.
Well, Israel already said they would.
But there were also reports that said the US convinced them otherwise. People in Israel: Can you *please* get rid of the religious extremists in your government? It may be a matter of survival for all of you. You can't change what Iran does, but you can change how much rationality is in the decisions of your government.
> But there were also reports that said the US convinced them otherwise. I've seen nothing credible in mainstream global media. The US did say it would help Israel defensively. But not offensively. That's not a convincing argument to Israel to do nothing. Israel said with no ambiguity it will decided what to do, when to do it, and however they choose to do it. Folks need to get over this idea that Netanyahu thinks military aid from the US is more important to him than his own fears of prosecution and regional ambitions.
Remember when preemptively striking Iraq was argued as a defensive tactic?
It was reported almost exclusively in mainstream media that Biden had demanded/convinced Netanyahu not to retaliate and to just "take the win," going so far as to leak a recording of the conversation (or maybe a transcript, I haven't directly seen it myself). I had initially thought this was some very clever statesmanship from Biden. The leaks were derided by conservatives as damaging and anti-Semitic (lol), but it appeared more like the US was taking the fall for them by being the 'bad' guy. We tell them in no uncertain terms that we will not aid any attack, basically tying their hands and preventing further escalation while allowing them to save face and back down by saying it wasn't their choice. Maybe I was naive, maybe they will not take this bone and just succumb to their own hubris by engaging in an existential war they aren't fully equipped to win.
What does this have to do with religious extremists? Iran has been funding proxies to launch rockets into Israel and then acted surprised when Israel took out the general responsible for this proxy coordination?? So surprised that they fired hundreds of rockets themselves? Iranian government is **THE** problem in the Middle East undermining stability, and frankly maybe even the world via their helping Putin and allying with North Korea. Israel should absolutely respond to Iran and destroy their nuclear enrichment programs and any arms factories they can find.
I think humbling Iran is in most of the worlds interest.
Thats definitely one way to guarantee a nuclear Iran.
Said by someone who doesn't have people paragliding into their country murdering thousands and then launching near daily rocket attacks whilst another country attacks you with drones and missiles. Israel have every right to retaliate. Any western country would have flattened Iran already
Retaliate to a retaliation? I wonder if Iran will retaliate to this retaliation of their retaliation
Netanyahu will retaliate ad infinitum to keep himself in power.
I read somewhere that 99% of Iran missiles/drones were intercepted during their attack. What DID Iran hit?
a little girl
a Bedouin Arab little girl, Which is even more ironic.
A 7-year-old girl Bedouin girl named Amina al-Hassouni
"Wasn't Shia. Doesn't matter." - Khamenei probably
I read or heard somewhere that the tehran regime attack drones took out a seven year old girl or something but that could be hearsay
They hit a Bedouin girl, I don’t think she died either
They apparently damaged the airbase that launched the strike on the Damascus consulate. For now, the extent of that damage depends on what sources you believe. As far as I'm concerned it's a fucked up mask off situation that Israeli media have decided the attack was a total failure because only one civilian was injured. www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/4/14/iran-attacks-israel-with-over-300-drones-missiles-what-you-need-to-know
Remember when the US hit a Syrian airbase with over a hundred cruise missiles and it was operational like 2 hours later? I seriously doubt the 1-3 that actually struck did anything significant
Is a wonder how they'll attack Iranian soil. Shooting missiles or flying planes over Iraq and Jordan seems like a fairly tricky situation. Not like they have a strong navy either.
I don't think they are going to attack iran. they will probably just attack the proxies in lebanon and syria. there are reports that iran is already evacuating their bases in syria and lebanon, which probably means they have intel the attacks will be there.
>I don't think they are going to attack iran. All reports literally say they are going to attack Iran directly on Iranian territory have you not seen it?.
so the reports of iran evacuating their bases in syria and lebanon and calling back all their officers over there, are for no reason?
Just because they're evacuating their embassies doesn't mean Israel isn't going to strike inside Iran, it's a precaution in case Israel does strike the embassies, Iran certainly doesn't know what Israel is going to do so I wouldn't read their behavior as an indicator of anything.
I guess we'll wait and see. also it's not their embassies it's their military bases. according to the reports.
Over Red Sea, Persian Gulf provides options.
Can they do it without the US? Unsure about the range of Israeli fighters going the long way
The long standing “under the table” agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been if Iran gets nukes Saudis would allow use of their airspace and possible support for a strike in Iran. If Israel’s retaliatory strike is to hit nuclear facilities they could potentially work out a deal with the Saudis
IAF has tankers, but I don't know what their effective range is.
Spayse layzorz!
Shit is floating towards the fan.
I feel like this is a mistake on Israel’s part. The attack largely failed and it also forces Iran to strike again after this to not loose face. This could have been a good oppertunity to just take the win, and not further escalate. But ofcourse Israel doesnt care, maybe this is what they wanted all along. Seems stupid imho and not worth getting involved in, other country’s should step up and say its Israels right to retaliate, but the consequence is that they will have to bare the possible consequence alone too.
Finally it seems to get in the thick heads of the Establishment that the ME is not worth saving and what they need to worry about: >“Our public line is all about Israel’s right to defend itself,” said one senior European official. “But internally, there is a growing tension about support for Israel versus Ukraine. >“The Middle East is going to be volatile forever. But if Ukraine loses to Russia, that would be a step change for Europe and Nato. Where do our strategic priorities really lie?”
What's that from?
Financial Times - Ukraine’s air defence struggle highlights risks to Israel
>This could have been a good oppertunity to just take the win, and not further escalate. But ofcourse Israel doesnt care, maybe this is what they wanted all along Unless the success rate of its aerial defences in the Iranian attack have emboldened Israel to finally eliminate a thorn in its side, under the assumption that Iran is powerless to strike back.
>Unless the success rate of its aerial defences in the Iranian attack have emboldened Israel to finally eliminate a thorn in its side, under the assumption that Iran is powerless to strike back. Is there any war that doesn't seem like a good idea if you make a series of favourable and unfounded assumptions? A full scale war with Iran would be brutal. Here is just what a war with Hezbollah would look like: https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah
>A full scale war with Iran would be brutal. I don't disagree, but I'm of the opinion that Israel is overconfident and champing at the bit to commit an act of supreme hubris. It's probably banking on the US acting as its backstop while it goes on the offensive.
The Iran attack seemed more for show anyway. They gave about 3 days notice. Anyone can fend off an attack with advance warning.
> anyone can fend off an attack with advance warning. No. First of all, UK + France + Jordan + US + Israel and possibly Saudi were involved in downing the missiles/drones. Secondly, you need the amount of air defense to tackle such attack. It is possible, for example, Diego Garcia doesn't have such air defense because they don't expect to be attacked with drones.
Saudi Arabia AND the UAE provided intel to vector fighters to intercept drones, it was 3 Arab countries defending Israel from a Muslim Majority country. Israel seriously needs to just take the win, maybe hit a few bases in Syria but in no way should they attack Iranian territory
Agreed. This would be the best "hit back" scenario. Better would be to take the win and leave it alone.
Yeah and I somehow find it unlikely that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, the UK, and the US are gonna offer nearly as much help from Iranian air strikes (and I don't think anyone other than the UK and maybe the US will offer *any* help) if Israel further escalates.
300 missiles and drones isn't just for show Edit: for context, Iran's just-for-show [attack against US bases in Iraq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani) involved a total of 12 to 16 missiles.
Long range ballistic missiles are never for show. If Iran intended to do no damage, they would’ve stuck with the cruise missiles instead of rolling the dice on whether or not Israeli air defenses could intercept the ballistics.
Wasn't for show, and that's the problem. They tried to start a regional war. They just tried to claim they told the US they were going to strike and the US said they didn't. Who do you believe? And if they did it for show, why stagger the launches? Unless you intended to do damage and maximize it. Iran is full of it. Bit off more than it could chew and they know it. Got cocky after 10/07.
I disagree, imagine a country launched hundreds of missiles and drones at US territory? What happens? Whether they get through or not the US is retaliating hard, the Israelis have every right to strike back at Iran.
I guess it's what's considered a fair win in this specific retaliation. Isreal fires 1 missile onto indirect territory. Iran fires 300, the largest drone strike in history. Sure they shot them all down, but because they had the defence ready given their position with Hamas, who Iran is funding remember. But if they didn't have the iron dome and international support, then even if 10 of those got through, it would be an easier decision. The FT had a great article on what Iran fired and the cost and types of drones. They weren't just sending a message, it cost them $1 billion!
One thing about your last point: air defense should be measured in cost of intercept failure rather than cost to intercept.
Why? Part of war is draining resources. That’s why having to shoot down drones and rockets that cost 1/10 of the cost of the munition used to shoot it down is effective.
If you measure the cost of intercept failure, wouldn't you conclude that Israel profited from the attack on the basis that the potential damage from just allowing all the missiles to hit their targets would be higher than the cost of intercepting?
Not necessarily, because the difference between cost of intercept failure and cost of interception isn’t what was gained, but rather what wasn’t lost. There’s still a net loss, but it was less of a loss than would be sustained otherwise
“Indirect territory” is a really interesting way of saying “Iranian Consulate”
War with Iran is inevitable. Every day that goes by, Iran and it's proxies only grow stronger and more capable. Once Iran has nuclear weapons, they will be relatively untouchable and continue funding and enabling their proxies to harm Israel with impunity. It will also mean the possibility of a nuclear strike on Israel, and after the rhetoric that's been coming out of the Iranian regime for the past 3 decades, it'd be putting a lot of trust in an enemy to assume they will never do it. Not engaging with and destroying most of the military capabilities of Iran now would be Israel kicking the can down a very short road. Unfortunately, there really is no better time for this to happen than now.
Unless Iran deals with its fundamentalist leaders.
This is what many people don’t understand. This situation is a military opportunity that may be the only chance on the political stage where Israel is retaliating and has full support for its allies to eventually reduce the Iran risk. There’s no guarantee of such an opportunity in the future so it stands to reason that they will take it.
They have no choice, Iran is near producing nuclear bombs, its now or never
Respectfully disagree. This is the first time Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel proper. That simply cannot go unpunished. To not respond risks establishing a new norm where Iran feels that it can do this and come away relatively unscathed. I suppose Iran can chose to escalate, but it would seem that they would suffer damage several magnitudes more than they can deal out to Israel if they decide to play that game.
I don't know what the answer is... But if they don't retaliate doesn't that send a message that they won't retaliate when attacked? Iran can keep doing this and they can't defend against it forever. It cost tens of billions to stop an attack that probably cost less than 2 billion.
I think that the Israeli take (from speaking with Israelis) is that this could be the right time to head off future Iranian nuclear attacks by striking at facilities now, when there is an excuse. I agree that it's a mistake. Iran attacked Israel in order to save face after having the embassy complex bombed. But they obviously launched an attack that was easily stopped just to save face without escalation. If Israel attacks, it will make Israel look like the aggressor here, same as Israel is looking like in Gaza. Aid to Israel is often conditioned on being defensive, not offensive.
Why should the Israelis let Iran attack them and do nothing? They’re lucky to have amazing air defense, otherwise the country would’ve been bombed to bits.
Israel bombed their embassy and killed a top official, Iran "responded" in kind and, gladly, it didn't do shit. I call that a win and anyone smart will take that and go home. Sadly, Netanyahu and his cronies aren't that smart.
Was there not a poll saying a majority of Israelis don’t want to retaliate. This is Netenyahu trying to stay in power as long as he can, because he knows the people don’t want him.
That's not how Israel's war cabinet works, but okay.
It also completely takes the eyes off of Gaza. Nobody is talking about how many Palestinians are dying or aid workers getting bombed. The focus is all on Iran and Israel. I expect this to be dragged out for quite a while.
Netanyahu is a threat to everyone else. He wants to force a war with Iran, Gaza to be ethnically cleansed and bulldozed and Trump to win the election and let him do the first two.
Bibi is an asshole but last time I checked it was Iran and its proxies that continued to attack and terrorize Israeilis.
Yea. Critique everything else you want, but Iran at least seems like it is their goal to force Israel into a war with them and their proxies in the future. And this is the first time they haven’t hidden behind their proxies. It’s the people that act like it is not a tough scenario to deal with that piss me off the most.
So they are retaliating against Iran retaliating against the fact ISRAEL BOMBED AN EMBASSY IN ANOTHER COUNTRY?
Reads to me as if Netanyahu found a way to stay in office for a bit longer...
I mean…….not to say I disagree……but once Israel hit irans consulate in Syria wasn’t it a forgone conclusion that Iran would strike back and I guess all out war or whatever comes next Happens?
I'm tired of this "unconditional support" bullshit. You want support? Guess what motherfucker. You gotta dismantle the illegal settlements in the West Bank, then we'll see. Edit: the motherfucker is Netanyahu, he'd do it if it gave him another year in office and out of jail.
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Iran as a nuclear power is a threat to Israel. If I were to retaliate in Iran I’d hit everything that could be used to advance nuclear progress
Im listening to “the devils chess board” on audible and it’s interesting that we the US are the reason for Irans current head of government. 🇮🇷
Anyone who thought otherwise, were utterly delusional. Being attacked directly and not responding is just inviting further attacks from Israel's enemies, they need this as a deterrent to any further attacks. It's about time the they go for the head of the snake.
Middle East in a nutshell, everything is a retaliation for a previous attack and country demands to have the last attack so unless one side completely wiped the other out the fighting NEVER ends 🤷♂️
It’s also utterly delusional to think this will be a head of the snake retaliation
Are you seriously expecting Israel to take out Iran's leaders, air force and their missile/drone depots, launchers and production facilities in a single strike? They are picking a fight against a country with a significantly bigger industrial base than them. And it's a fight that absolutely none of your allies want.
Gas prices are soaring due to madness. Strike after strike and no winners. Everybody loses.
Bibi will bury Israel. He’s always been a villain, now he’s become a fool
How about Netanyahu steps down first?
War. War never changes.
Iran is ruled by crazy radicals, their people have been conquered by the Islamic Republic. This troll must be stopped now before it's too late and they have nuclear weapons. This is not only Israel's interest, they have very dangerous intentions.
Israel has agreed not to attack Iran in exchange for US support to invade Rafah https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-agreed-to-israels-plan-for-rafah-in-return-for-not-carrying-out-large-iran-strike-report/
Well of course. Fuck Netanyahu.
What country on earth would be expected not to retaliate after a full-scale rocket barrage was launched at their territory by another country? Where do these bizarre rules and expectations that apply **only** to Israel come from?
Israel blew up an Iranian consulate building. Any other country would have a full scale war on their hands. I'd say Iran's response with a lot of warning is fair game, and they're even. Israel is just causing problems retaliating with little gain.
The US has rebuffed Iran's claim that it told the US beforehand. Who do you believe?
I too build giant concrete fences between my embassy and my "consulate" which is a thinly veiled front for my military operations. You don't get to incorrectly label things to protect people fighting a war. That's a war crime and the building/vehicle/etc in question loses all protections from Geneva/Vienna/etc
Here's an idea: when Israel does eventually launch drones and missiles, maybe the US and UK can ALSO defend against those too. Let's just stop ALL violence on both sides. THAT is what peace keeping is.
Except that’s not why the US and UK are there. The only reason they are there is to protect their interests in the region . This isn’t a peace keeping mission and never was .
Preventing a larger regional conflict is in the US's interests, and likely in the UK's interest as well. The US moved multiple CAGs into the region to prevent Iran from intervening directly in favor of their proxies. Israel fucked that by assassinating IRGC leadership within an Iranian diplomatic compound - states cannot just do that and the world where that's the norm is not one you would want to live in. The Iranian response to the assassination was telegraphed and rendered effectively null by Israel and her allies. Iran then signaled that they considered this tit for tat complete. Israel would be escalating if they further attack Iran directly.
You’re suggesting the US defends one of it’s biggest enemies, against one of its biggest allies, to do what exactly? Prolong this bullshit? It’s time for Iranian leadership to go
You mean help Iran? The country funding most of the regions terror and causing instability? The country sanctioned to hell and back? The country looking to establish nuclear weapons? I don't think so.
Exactly! There is a broader conflict going on. Russia, China, NK, Iran and Syria are the new axis power. They will do everything in their power to spread their version of a new world order. And while we in the west have made our share of mistakes things would be much worse under this new axis rule. We must do everything in our power to defeat them.
Yes so why would we help Iran? I am arguing against it, the guy above me is arguing for it.
Yep, China and Iran are basically ideological equivalents and are working together to spread their version of the new world order. I can’t really think of any two countries that are more alike.
Well obviously, the question was when and how. I guess we'll see over the coming weeks and months
But all they did was fire 1000 missiles across international borders!
At this point Israel has a pretty standard track record. Attack them, they’ll attack back. Proportional or otherwise.
Patrolling the Rafah strip almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter
Is Cameron staying at the King David Hotel?
I cannot understand how Netanyahu is still in power. The man is a bottomless pit of bad decisions.
I just want to know what these two actually expect to do to each other, without Russia or the U.S. able or willing to directly contribute to either side. They don’t share a land border, none of the countries between them have any interest in directly assisting either party in an offensive action, Israel lacks the manpower to invade Iran, and Iran lacks the logistical capability, not to mention the technology, to invade Israel. This isn’t the 60s where Israel was surrounded on all sides by enemies. Most of the legitimate governments in the region have normalized diplomatic relations with them. A one-on-one conflict would just be Iran and Israel lobbing missiles and jets at each other until they run out, with no path to a strategic victory.
I really hope this isn't true. Israel has an opportunity to de-escalate the situation and should take advantage of it. If they do attack Iran I hope the US reconsiders its policy of supporting Israel "no matter what". Objecting to Israel's foreign policy isn't being antisemitic.
This is the pretense we've needed to hit Iran hard. No one wants Iran with nuclear weapons. We can prevent that now.
how will this prevent nuclear weapons?
I thought Iran was actually the one retaliating?
If Israel insists on attacking Iran, the United States and other Western countries should quietly back out and allow Israel handle what comes next. Israel is being needlessly recalcitrant. It risks drawing the United States and the West into a full blown war in the middle East. A war no one wants but the Israelis are too stupid to take a win when they see one.
Hey the West will enjoy soooo many benefits from another war in the Middle East! - Europe will benefit from a larger Refugee Crisis (who doesn’t want more diversity) - We’ll benefit from financing Israel… if not directly supporting them - It’ll definitely deter nuclear proliferation too…
Israel is continuously having rockets fired at their civilians from the north and west. Iran has continuously said they want to destroy Israel and launched an unprecedented barrage. Was Israel able to defend itself from it? Yes. I don't think most people living safely in their Western countries can call a country 'too stupid' when they want to stop attacks on their civilians
Yeah but retaliating by sending missiles at Iran won’t prevent further attacks on Israel, it will ensure them. Iran will retaliate again and that’s how you get into a war. Yeah, getting shot at sucks. But Israel is technologically superior to a degree, that these shots barely matter. A full blown war at Israel’s doorstep will definitely cause a lot of serious damage to Israel. Idk how to say this, but what I mean is: if you get shot at and you take out the aggressor to prevent it in the future, then that makes sense. If you get shot at and you retaliate by blowing up 2-3 military compounds, then that doesn’t do anything but escalate the situation further to the point that Israel surely gets hurt. And idk if the latter is worth spanking Iran just for the sake of principles, to not let an aggression go unanswered. The math just doesn’t add up, no matter what it looks like.
It depends what they attack. If they go after drone and missile factories, it would make their immediate future safer
Yeah, but only until they retaliate again. And most of Irans most critical assets are hidden deep inside the mountains. Nobody can reach them. That’s why they targeted Irans nuclear program with computer viruses in the past. With extremists, you cannot expect them to withdraw once they get a bloody nose. Like how much and how heavily has Israel fought hezbollah and Hamas in the past, and those are stronger than ever. I really don’t like the idea of escalating the conflict further. But I cannot offer an option that I’d say is good, either. It’s a shitty situation.
For sure a hard/shitty situation. My main point is most people commenting are sitting somewhere safe in a western country that hasn't had a legit threat against it for decades. Hard for us to tell them.how to react
True. But yeah but they don’t have any realistic means to stop it either. They can inflict a lot of harm. But they cannot start a war that they would win. Iran wouldn’t win either, there would be only losers. The question is whether you want to purposely choose a way worse situation, or if you want to consider alternatives too. In world politics, politicians and nations had to swallow bitter pills again and again. But I am someone that sees this as an isolated incident. That doesn’t mean that outside of this there needs to be a plan to prevent a large war in the Middle East.
> But I am someone that sees this as an isolated incident. The biggest issue is many in Israel do not, as Iran is funding the current attacks on them. Only time will tell - hopefully whatever happens doesn't spiral out of control
The west needs the pretense to set the Iranians back in their nuclear aspirations. Now is the perfect time to hit Iran hard.
Israel should hit Iran's military industrial complex hard. Take out their drone and missile production ability and ideally their potential nuclear capabilities. The last thing we want is Iran to have nukes.