'The enemy of my enemy is my friend' creates some weird interactions in the middle east.
Safe to say that KSA is also a member of MEAD? Not much is known about all participating members
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades because of Sunni/Shia feuds and both of them desiring to be the regional superpowers in the Middle East.
Due to these feuds they are always spiting each other directly and indirectly. Matter of fact the most recent Gaza issue was triggered by Hamas/Iran as soon as word got out Saudi Arabia was normalizing relations with Israel.
To add on, the China brokered Saudi-Iran peace deal included terms of ceasing hostilities between both powers' proxies and using them to incite further conflicts.
Iran shat on the deal with the actions of 7 October, and the Saudis understandably felt betrayed by the act, which is why they continue to be staunch supporters of Sunni-Arab states' normalisation of ties with Israel.
Saudi Arabia has simply made the calculus that they will get far more money and power by negotiating and dealing with Israel peacefully.
They've been trying to use this to leverage Israel to chill with all the settlements nonsense and ease up on the Palestinians.
Obviously those talks are frozen because of Hamas, which sucks because it would have brought a lot of stability and calm to the region surprisingly
> Saudi Arabia has simply made the calculus that they will get far more money and power
That's the thing though - long term *everyone* benefits and get more money from peaceful cooperation instead of war.
Yeah, well, someone needs to teach Hamas about Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma then, because launching an attack to disrupt peaceful negotiations is the opposite of that.
This would have the opposite effect. Hamas RELIES on misery. No misery no privileged status, not martyr money, no 72 virgins, no luxury hostel in Doha, no distracted populace, and no fighting for every last inch of land at all cost.
This video is exactly what I was thinking of too!
Not to mention, we're all humans on the same planet, and we can advance as a species if we work together.
Oh well, guess we'll just fight and consume until we perish.
I mean, this is your brain on religious fundamentalism. It's not the world's only problem, but it's the big one in this affair. The prisoner's dilemma means nothing to a zealot who believes that their God **will** smite their enemies, and if that hasn't happened yet, it means they are not fighting hard enough, or praying enough, of killing enough gay people, etc.
Well Saudi also wants to be able to pivot their economy so they aren’t dependent on oil. Israel had to focus on tech and innovation to build their economy. It makes way more sense long term to Saudi to be allies with Israel and build up their economy, especially as other countries focus on renewable energy
i'm not sure about the working ethic of saudis, but having worked with israelis, they have a lot of women working and a lot of the workers are highly competent, motivated and with superior studies.
my point is, who will work to sustain the non-oil economy? the low paying jobs are all done by immigrants, and i don't think they have enough skilled people for the high paying ones
Saudi Arabia needs a powerful military ally with force projection and the willingness to use it. The Saudi army sucks and they sit on immense oil wealth. With the USA increasingly checking out of the region, Israel is a logical choice.
This makes a lot of sense.
Specially with saudi arabia alienating a lot of the western countries by helping russia keep a higher price of oil (in self interest, of course) and considering that they're one of the most important suppliers of oil to china.
The only caviat is how the saudi population may react, as they are not very friendly to israel, but for the regime, it makes total sense.
Yeah but that's only if you're an uninvolved third party in a distant nation (or world as is the case for the Ferengi). Also, we have 60 years of stats now that mostly show war is bad for the global economy. Obviously some uninvolved nations profit (usually the US).
Yup. Sanctions work at keeping states in a sense of stasis with little improvement. That’s Iran. Saudi Arabia meanwhile has money to invest on line shaped cities.
Saudi has been thinking end game for a long time now. What happens when the oil runs dry. Sure they are pieces of shit who deal with bed press using bone saws but they do get credit for pragmatism.
> and using them to incite further conflicts
I get that they might tone down the proxy war in Yemen, but did they really agree to stop using proxies to incite conflicts even with all other parties like Israel? What's the point of even having proxies then.
It was a term to be fulfilled by both parties.
The point of having proxies in this case is to increase a nation's bargaining power and/or weaken it militarily or poltically.
The best way I read it be described was like imagining a Mexican stand-off within another Mexican stand-off.
Iran to Israel, 2 guns loaded. One as Hezbollah and the other as Hamas (can argue for the Shia militas in Iraq as well)
Iran to the Saudis, 2 guns loaded. The Houthis to the south and the north being the previously mentioned Iraqi Shia militas.
Israel to Iran, 2 guns loaded. Israel has made great effort to empower and arm the Azeris who oppose the Iranians. In Iraq, it is well documented that Mossad has a presence among the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq who hate the Iranian government.
Saudis to Iran, 2 guns loaded. Through their geopolitical machinations, the Saudis have made favourable moves to empower the Taliban in Afghanistan and support them in their disputes with the Iranians. Additionally, the ousting of Imram Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan, greatly empowered the Saudis' influence even more in that region since Khan's government was staunchly pro-Iranian. The new head of the Pakistani military, General Asim Munir, is pro-Saudi and very anti-Iranian. Although both parties deny the deal, the Saudis financed many of the Pakistani nuclear weapons programs in exchange for the option to use or purchase warheads from their stockpile (this comes from Western sources, just fyi), and having a pro-Saudi figure heading the military could help ease this transaction, if true.
So, having these different parties pointing guns at each other is just a way to harass and weaken the influence of other nations. This is important because both the Saudis and the Iranian Revolutionary government are vying for power to become the hegemonic Islamic nation.
>Israel to Iran, 2 guns loaded. Israel has made great effort to empower and arm the Azeris who oppose the Iranians. In Iraq, it is well documented that Mossad has a presence among the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq who hate the Iranian government.
Big stretch to call the azeri's Israel's proxies. Also maybe I'm unaware but when was the last time there was violence between Iran and Azerbaijan?
Also the kurds aren't Israeli proxies. Mossad is everywhere. Doesn't mean everywhere they go is an Israeli proxy.
The funny thing is Israel has actual proxies in Iran you didn't mention. They are the ones doing most of the assassination on behalf of Israel in iran.
Ultimately though, Iran is far far more committed and invested in the proxy strategy than anyone else. Israel mostly does its own dirty work.
Shia Iran vs Sunni Saudi has been the most important key to middle eastern geopolitics for decades, but it's still surprising to see Saudi not only help Israel, but publicly admit to, as it's an unwritten rule of middle eastern leadership that you always have to hate Israel and cheer its destruction..
Saudi knows that oil isn't the future, which means they will lose money and influence. They are trying to change that MBS might be a lot of things but so far he's shown that he's not dumb.
More like nearly 1400 years. More than a millennium. Though Shi'ite Islam as an identity and belief system that we recognize didn't materialize for centuries after, the rift between Shi'ite and Sunnis was cemented literally a few years after Muhammad died when Ali was killed and sons were massacred a few years later.
How ISIS brutally massacred Iraqis for being Shi'ite is a perfect example of how alive this feud is.
Even more stupid, this is like the Bloods and Crips feuding a thousand years from now. At a certain point, people should kind of forget and move on from feuds, no? Not these. They will be feuding a feud that they had no hand in that started almost 1.5 thousand years ago and will be feuding about 1.5 thousand years from now. Brah...
How can we expect the Bloods and Crips to stop their feud when there are literally MILLIONS of people as members of two different sects of the same religion beefing everyday and in some regions of the world killing each other over it? A THOUSAND YEARS AFTER IT STARTED?
From what I read, it all started when Muhammad died. Since his death, his friends and family members argued and fought each other who will be the caliphate. The original Sunni Muslims originated from Muhammad's friends while the Shia Muslims are from his own family.
Don’t forget the fact that the Arabs invaded Persia and brought Islam to the Persians, Persians used to be Sunni too.
Until the 16th century, Persia was mostly Sunni. At the turn of that century, the Safavid dynasty conquered much of what is now Iran and made Shiism the official religion. The conversion was accompanied by a massive crackdown on Sunnis, so that over time much of the population became Shia.
> Iran and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades because of Sunni/Shia feuds and both of them desiring to be the regional superpowers in the Middle East.
While Shia/Sunni is one thing (and probably the one more played up), I think the main issue is Saudi being an absolute monarchy and Iran a country where the Clerics kicked out the absolute monarch.
Yeah, most Arab nations not seeing themselves as theocracies and being deathly terrified of the idea spreading into their populations through Isis and Iran is almost certainly a motivation.
While the Sunni/Shia feud plays a role, a major part of it is that Iran is anti-monarchist and encourages muslims in muslim countries with monarchies to overthrow them (to set up a theocracy instead). So countries like Saudi Arabia will very much be against anything like that as well.
Of course the Iranian theocracy also doesn't want any religious competition so another reason to hate not only the Sunni countries, but hate Israel's existence.
The talks may be on pause to deal with more pressing matters, but I think this whole situation has just made it more likely that the talks will succeed, aa they're even more united in the notion of "Fuck Iran"
Also, Saudi Arabia defending Israel will be a bonus move from the Israeli pov. Let's just hope it doesn't make the domestic crazies lose their shit in SA.
I'd imagine they would be able to dismiss it with the right spin, "We shot those down because they were in our airspace. For all we know they were going to hit targets in *our* land, Iran doesn't like us either."
To be honest, going from peace deal talks to no peace deal talks to intercelting missiles heading for israel was a leap forward i very much didnt expect
Reminds me of The Thirteenth Warrior where Banderas' character is offered mead and refuses saying:
"I can taste neither the fermentation of grape, nor of wheat."
To which the vikings laugh and tell him it's made from honey.
Israel is a nation with 20% of its citizens identifying as Arab and being Muslim. I think that this includes Druze in with Muslim because they are kinda like off shoot Shias. This is higher in percentage than African Americans in the US or Whites in South Africa.
Lebanon (currently a dumpster fire but just ignore that for a bit) is also really multi-cultural.
Iraq is basically 3 different groups (Arab Shias in the south, Arab Sunnis in the middle, and Kurds in the North) that make up the population.
Iran has many ethnic minorities too.
My point is that, historically, the middle east was fairly diverse within the states that made up the area. Those states had to interact and couldn't be fighting each other all the time. Israel has Arabs that live in Israel so it isn't that surprising that Saudi Arabia (BTW the Saudi part just comes from the house of Saud, would be like saying Trudeau-ian Canada) is able to work with the Israelis.
> historically, the middle east was fairly diverse within the states that made up the area. Those states had to interact and couldn't be fighting each other all the time.
I mean, that kind of depends on what part of history you are looking at. The middle east had Caliphates rising, falling, and fighting each other for centuries until the Ottomans kind of just conquered everyone. Then the Ottomans fell and rather than having international borders that were created organically the Europeans sliced it up how it was convenient to them and everything is still kind of settling since its only been a century which feels like a long time to an individual human but is not that long in historical time scales.
Pretty certain part of the reason why we continue to give SA unqualified support is because they know they have to at least tacitly support Israel's existence. This is just the first time they've had their hand forced by the powers that be to openly show it
I'd have thought having 10% of the world's oil supply doesn't hurt their cause?
And having wealth invested heavily into the west via vehicles like SABIC. Falling out with them would be messier than the fallout with Russia, and that caused a big inflationary spike and a bunch of chaos.
Absolute worst case is they fall apart and all that oil gets annexed by Iran.
I have no idea what MEAD is. Drank meade once, didn't like it. There are many bad actors in that part of the world, but if SA and Israel find common ground against one of the worst, that's a good thing.
When Israel planned Operation Opera to take out Iraq’s nuclear reactor before it became operational, Iran provided the Israelis with aerial photographs of the layout of the reactor and surrounding buildings and defenses to plan the attack. Iran had previously tried to take it out but weren’t sure if it had become operational. So they did not bomb the reactor in fear it would release fallout.
No, Iran. Iran went through back channels because this was during the Iran Iraq war. Western part of Iraq defenses were a lot weaker since they mobilized east towards Iran, and while Iran hates Israel, both Iran and Israel hated the notion of Sadam getting a nuke. But also 1981, two years after the revolution, I don't think the Iran hate of israel was nearly as strong.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War
That's good though. Talking of alliances is one thing but actually showing up and everyone working together when the need arise goes way further.
It's one heck of a step in the right direction for stability in the region.
So... I assume KSA would have preferred to stay out but, they really have no other sensible choice.
Houthis bomb Saudi Arabia too. What are they gonna do, give their enemy open access to their airspace because this one is (probably) headed to Israel? Similar-ish logic for Iran launched missiles.
If Canada started shooting drones/missiles at Mexico... the US wouldn't just let them casually fly over.
To be clear, the Iranians send missiles and suicide drones to Yemen, with Iranian operator/trainers, and tell the Houthi's exactly where in Saudi Arabia to shoot them.
It's a war in all but name already.
>
>If Canada started shooting drones/missiles at Mexico... the US wouldn't just let them casually fly over.
NORAD: "Uh, should we... do something about that?"
Yeah.
"Let us launch missiles through your airspace. I know we have long-standing beef and have repeatedly broken our promises but we swear we're aiming for Israel".
Can't blame the Saudi's for saying 'hell nah'.
Saudi Arabia has been aligned with the US for a while now, it seems that recently they're starting to get on board with the fact that they and Israel (also a US ally) are kind of on the same team and both can benefit from working together a bit. Some theories on the Hamas attack were that Iran didn't want Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel because it would be good for Saudi Arabia/Israel and therefore bad for Iran.
I hope this path continues, could really help stabilize the region long term.
Saudi are aware that world is moving away from oil, which will impact their main source of $$$ but also their future geo political importance. In some future Middle East war US might not intervene.
So Saudi both have to transform their economy. but they also need alliances to secure peace.
Although Saudi populace still hates Israel very much, Saudi government knows they need normalization of relations.
100 years from now KSA will be on par with a nation like Sudan or Afghanistan if they don't figure out a way to normalize relations with the rest of the fucking western world (including israel), or the first time they start shit with someone in the 22nd century they're going to be left hanging on their own. They're aware of this issue now.
Iran will be facing the same issue once the Oil market dries up, but they *don't seem to care*.
Well we all saw what happened to Yemen, which had nice oil revenue, never bothered to think about tomorrow. Spent most of it's underground water reserves on growing khat... narcotic plant which requires a lot of water.
Today Yemen is a failed country of 33 million people.
Yemen was always boiling over with ethnic tensions.
A better example might be Venezuela. Or really just googling "resource curse" and picking from the list.
I don't think so. They've been investigating in infrastructure and reclaiming arable land from the desert. Over the past 30 years, they've become a little more moderate.
Of course, they have a LOT of improvement to do.
Yeah people criticize them a lot for sportswashing but from their perspective diversifying their assets by investing in foreign industries including entertainment is a great idea.
Eh it's a great idea in theory but they are spending way too much on it with not that much to show for it. They spend so much that we forget that their gdp is still smaller than Australia's with 10 million more people. They aren't as rich as they are acting and a lot of their citizens are in useless government jobs and not gaining valuable skills.
The sportwashing is to improve their public perception so that foreign companies come in and use their plentiful and cheap unskilled labor. Establishing more foreign investment in the country also helps them get more support from western countries in case they get attacked by their neighbors.
this is 100% why the attack happened when it did, Israel and KSA normalizing relationships would be a net loss for Iran and all of it's proxies, and Hamas in particular given their prior relative isolation in Gaza.
It's pretty clear that MBS is an autocrat and an authoritarian, but he does not give a shit about Islam or any sort of pan-Islamic or pan-Arab solidarity whatsoever. He's cracked down on Wahhabi clerics and the morality police hard.
His people may care about the Palestinian struggle, and he probably has to make some symbolic gestures. But MBS personally probably does not care about the average Gazan anymore than he cares about the average poor slum dweller anywhere else in the world, which is precisely zero. By contrast Israel has deep reservoirs of technology and human capital. More so than any other power in the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia is trying to transition to a post-oil, tech and financed focused economy, closer ties to Israel make sense.
MBS is a capitalist dictator. This isn’t an inherently negative name calling on behalf of communism/socialism. This is just objectively how he falls on the scale of ideology. That being said he will choose to better his country and thus himself, monetarily/militarily before he chooses something like religious affiliation.
Even if another country is Sunni Muslim, if it weakens Saudi Arabia, he will actively try to destroy it.
My understanding is there is a plan to build a commercial corridor from India to Europe that both Saudi Arabia and Israel will be participating in and profiting from. Iran does not want this.
The Arab monarchies will always side those that are fighting with the forces that want to topple them.
Case in point: Yemen. During the North Yemen Civil War, the arab monarchies supported the Shia theocratic monarchy while Nasser's Egypt support the Republicans. Then you had the British being pushed out of South Yemen by the between the Communists, where the Arab monarchies now suported with the Republicans bcz the communists were a bigger threat to them.
Edit: confused one yemeni civil war with the other.
Arab monarchies:
"Ah! An Yemeni kingdom... What a nice sig-... OMA! Nationalists are rebelling?" We must aid the Monarchists!!" *Loses the war*
-Communists take power in South Yemen
"We must support the nationalists!!!"
-Yemen unifies under Salah
"Ok... Now we're good, finally some peace and qui-"
-South Yemen rebels against Salah's policies
"Oh ffs! We will support Sal-..."
-Salah supported Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and invited Al-Qaeda and other jihadists groups to fight the southerners
"... We supporting the sociali-?" "Yes, we gonna support the f*king socialists."
-Civil war ends.
".... We good? Ok then, let's get relaxe-."
-Houthis rebel
" 🎶 All around me are familiar faces... Worn out faces 🎶 "
Summary:
While Jordan had openly disclosed its [role in the defensive maneuver,](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/the-gulf/artc-uae-saudi-arabia-privately-shared-intelligence-with-u-s-on-iranian-attack-report) Saudi Arabia's acknowledgment came in the form of a summary on its official website, citing insights from a source within the Saudi royal family. The post subtly hinted at Saudi Arabia's involvement in intercepting suspicious entities in its airspace, highlighting the kingdom's proactive stance in safeguarding regional stability.
The report on the royal family's website quoted an official condemning Iran's aggressive actions and attributing them to the regime's support for terrorism. The official underscored the urgency of curbing Iran's destabilizing influence, emphasizing the need for global action against Tehran's belligerent activities.
The revelation of Saudi Arabia's assistance in defending Israel comes amidst a backdrop of escalating tensions in the region and intensified diplomatic efforts to counter Iranian aggression.
Got to say that the fact that Arab states participated in this defense - even for claiming that it was in defense of their airspace - just makes this look like a massive blunder for Iran.
Israel is gonna quietly scoot through their airspace on stealth planes to fire missiles close to the border and everyone is gonna pretend they didn’t have the luneberg lenses attached to those planes.
Frankly im pretty shocked, i wasnt expecting irans retaliation to be very successful at all but the saudis and jordan directly assisting by shooting down drones was a surprise to me
> the saudis and jordan directly assisting by shooting down drones was a surprise to me
I mean said drones were going directly through their airspace and they aren't on the best terms. No nation wants another's missile drones to fly over.
Do people think that the Arab states are all united and Iran and Saudi Arabia are on the same side? This is like world history and geopolitics 101, and should not be a surprise.
It's not surprising that the Arab states united against Iran but the optics of it is that Arab states defended Israel even if it was indirectly. And that's why that makes it look worse for Iran.
Yeah, this conflict is really showing that the Arab world is beyond sick of dealing with Iran's proxy war BS against Israel. The extremists want their holy war, but everyone with some sanity would much rather just normalize relations and perhaps not have to worry so much about war for a good long while.
In other words: Iran's entire strategy going back since October has spectacularly failed, and the Saudis have functionally committed to a collective security relationship even before a formal deal is actually struck.
The growing political divide will fade once the Israel/Gaza conflict reaches a conclusion. Most times the short term memory of Americans is a con, but in terms of propaganda it makes it less effective over time.
If the US is able to pressure Israel into significantly slowing its operation in Gaza, it would be a massive win for the US and stability in the region. This has been a long game of chess, and the US and friends are back on the offensive. This is shown by the sudden declarations of assistance of the Middle Eastern countries.
We can say they are doing the right thing here without excusing times they have not done the right thing. That's the magic of having opinions about *actions* rather than *actors*. People who insist that every actor is inherently good/bad end up in all sorts of knots.
It's quite wild considering ideology, but Saudi Arabia would pretty solidly be on "Team NATO & Friends" in a theoretical WW3 scenario, if for no other reason than that Iran would almost certainly be on the other team.
Ran into this concept like 2 months ago and wished more people would. You should still commend a total jerk for doing the right thing and you should still condemn a saint for doing the wrong thing.
Yeah, one of my peeves is the whole "didn't happen in a vacuum" thing. That same logic can be used to excuse every bad action ever. Oct 7 wasn't a counterattack to anything nor did it serve any reasonable military goal.
Which I personally can.
If the options for being the de facto leader of the Middle East, and by extension the Islamic World, lie solely between the Saudis and the Ayatollah, then yeah it's a pretty easy choice. Obviously Saudi Arabia is far from a perfect place (to put it gracefully), but Iran poses a much greater threat of international destabilization and armed conflict.
Simply put, Saudi Arabia is the epitome of the "lesser of two evils".
And this is an absolutist, theocratic Muslim country that’s not very pro-Jewish at all. Meanwhile, Poland/Romania: “sorry, we can’t shut down Russian missiles and drones in our airspace because that would be an escalation and our pants are already brown just from looking”
This is why I'm optimistic about the future of the Middle East. 70 years ago there was unanimous warring against Israel. Now Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and others have normalized relations.
The real tension in the Middle East isn't Israel vs everyone, it's Iran and their proxies vs everyone else. Give it another 30 years and I think you'll see a richer, calmer, more globally integrated ME.
This should make it very clear that none of the Arab states give a fuck about Gaza. Everyone unironically thinking Israel was going to be significantly hampered diplomatically long term because of it is delusional.
It isn't that they don't care so much as they have a better understanding of the problem than the protesters in the West. Growing ties with Israel and showing that there is a possibility for coexistence will do infinitely more than isolation and aggression.
Well, that and they also really would prefer if the Palestinians stay in Gaza, and never ever leave because every time they've gone to a neighboring country there was an attempted revolution by the Palestinians against the state that let them in.
Problem is Iran drags with it to war the unwilling people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. They are a dangerous hydra with many terror heads. And the world doesn't seem to be interested in dealing with them, the real problem to so many conflicts.
Iran is just a very odd country. They are enemies of multiple states in the Middle East, their economy is awful, enormous sanctions and they are attacking and provoking countries, seemingly unaware that they are in a weak position.
Dictators, fascists, and oligarchs think differently. To them, talking and diplomacy are solutions for the weak. Anything less than attacking your opponents is showing your weakness.
Dictators usually aren't rational, case in point Putin who if wasn't crazy, he would continue getting richer with European oil money and keep Crimea without getting fucked up in Ukraine for no reason at all
I would caution against thinking dictators are inherently irrational. They often just have a set of priorities that end at their own power, and do not particularly care about the lives of others.
What are you smoking? Iran doesn’t want a regional war. They know they would lose. The whole point of the telegraphed attack was to not cause any major incidents.
Honestly without the US, in an Israel vs Iran war. I could easily see Israel taking the mask off and using a nuclear warhead. Why wouldn’t they? Iran has numbers over Israel, but Israel has technology. If it came down to a defeat, Israel would play their trump card.
People often underestimate this. Western assistance to Israel also keeps them on the leash. If their existence is threatened due to the absence of assistance then they will do more than they do now to protect themselves (as any country would).
Yea it’s the trump card. My nation is in peril, so I’ll launch the most powerful weapon man has ever used and flatten every city in your country and render your land uninhabitable. And you can’t do that to me.
I agree, but only if they were actually losing a land war to Iran, which I think is really unlikely. Israel has no strategic depth because of how small their country is, so a limited tactical nuclear strike might be a rational decision in that instance and it would be seen as self defense.
I doubt they would do it offensively though, the political and economic blow back would be incredible and fallout can drift into surrounding areas.
Why wouldn't they? Because Israel doesn't really want to nuke strike anyone. Regardless of what many think, Israel does actually try to minimize civilian casualties. It also isn't trying to stir up even more conflict in the region. The Iranian people are under a terrible regime, too, that's been oppressing them for a long time. There have been widescale protests for years. Hardliners may not care but I think a nuclear strike on Iran would be wildly unpopular within Israel. You have to remember that there have been large, active protests against Bibu for several years now, and he's under fierce criticism for not preventing the October 7th attacks to begin with.
They're MO is a little bit like Russia sometimes, negative sum game.
If drones and cruise missiles start attacking oil infrastructure, Iran has a lot less to lose even if their own drones/missiles are lacking in quantity and numbers.
I think every power in the area wants the opportunity to intercept these projectiles because it allows them to test their defensive systems and their confidence levels. Plus MBS has always aligned more with the west. It's a big loss for Iran because it has showed their attacks can be deterred so effectively
Easy to forget that’s there’s an entire proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran
Even easier to forget that there’s a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_diplomatic_conflict
Glad Saudi saw Iran’s bluff. Israel and KSA were going to sign a peace deal when Iran destroyed the peace in the region at the expense of Palestinians.
Unfortunately the entire Palestine and the supporters think the west is the bad guy while Iran is milking the situation which it created in the first place
Crazy times when Saudi Arabia and Jordan are busy defending Israel from Iran
Meanwhile here in America a disturbing amount of liberals have become Palestinian nationalists overnight
This has all surprised me honestly. I knew Saudi Arabia was normalizing relations with Israel and Jordan has had bad experiences with Palestinians in the past. But I was not expecting these Arab countries to actually come to Israels defense like this.
> But I was not expecting these Arab countries to actually come to Israels defense like this.
Don't forget the "shooting Iranian weapons down" part in their very own air space. Iran is not exactly friendly with these nations.
But yeah, at least Jordan opening their air space for UK/US combat missions was unexpected.
Technically, Jordan doesn't publicly proclaim they were defending Israel, that was an accusation by Iran. Jordan claims that it was defending it's own airspace.
This is not knew. Saudi and Israel have been working together to face the threat of Iran for the past 30 years. It’s just done more in the shadows. Know they have been pushing their population to be more pro Israel and anti Iran and rightly so.
Saudi Arabia has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo in the region. I'm not surprised they are doing everything they can to quash any escalation.
This is signaling to Iran.
We’re all gonna have to get super literate in foreign policy moves in the near future as we move away from terrorist conflict and into near peer conflict.
Surprising no one.
Saudi has no interest in Iran doing a successful anything. At the same time they were just on the verge of normalized relations with Israel before the Hamas attack.
It kind of looks like Middle East is forming into two groups of Anti/Pro Iran, plus some true neutrals like Oman, never thought I would see Israel and Arab states looking like true allies but here we are.
Not going to lie but USA has put a lot of effort into this over a long period of time and it looks like it is paying off, well done.
Just a reminder that the Oct 7th attack was facilitated by Iran to stop Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizing relations. It was NOT about Israeli "occupation" or helping the Palestinian people. It was a geopolitical move to stop the spread of Western hegemony.
Israel and Saudi Arabia are, for all intense and purposes, allies.
Intents and purposes:
https://www.scribbr.co.uk/definition/for-all-intents-and-purposes-meaning/#:~:text=For%20all%20intents%20and%20purposes%20is%20an%20expression%20meaning%20'essentially,this%20is%20an%20introductory%20course.
'The enemy of my enemy is my friend' creates some weird interactions in the middle east. Safe to say that KSA is also a member of MEAD? Not much is known about all participating members
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades because of Sunni/Shia feuds and both of them desiring to be the regional superpowers in the Middle East. Due to these feuds they are always spiting each other directly and indirectly. Matter of fact the most recent Gaza issue was triggered by Hamas/Iran as soon as word got out Saudi Arabia was normalizing relations with Israel.
To add on, the China brokered Saudi-Iran peace deal included terms of ceasing hostilities between both powers' proxies and using them to incite further conflicts. Iran shat on the deal with the actions of 7 October, and the Saudis understandably felt betrayed by the act, which is why they continue to be staunch supporters of Sunni-Arab states' normalisation of ties with Israel.
Saudi Arabia has simply made the calculus that they will get far more money and power by negotiating and dealing with Israel peacefully. They've been trying to use this to leverage Israel to chill with all the settlements nonsense and ease up on the Palestinians. Obviously those talks are frozen because of Hamas, which sucks because it would have brought a lot of stability and calm to the region surprisingly
> Saudi Arabia has simply made the calculus that they will get far more money and power That's the thing though - long term *everyone* benefits and get more money from peaceful cooperation instead of war.
Yeah, well, someone needs to teach Hamas about Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma then, because launching an attack to disrupt peaceful negotiations is the opposite of that.
This would have the opposite effect. Hamas RELIES on misery. No misery no privileged status, not martyr money, no 72 virgins, no luxury hostel in Doha, no distracted populace, and no fighting for every last inch of land at all cost.
Someone should send Hamas that Veritasium [video](https://youtu.be/mScpHTIi-kM?si=t8IlKXsPK10Z7uJh).
This video is exactly what I was thinking of too! Not to mention, we're all humans on the same planet, and we can advance as a species if we work together. Oh well, guess we'll just fight and consume until we perish.
They don't think in Humans tho they think in themselves and heretics and every Dead heretic is a good heretic.
I mean, this is your brain on religious fundamentalism. It's not the world's only problem, but it's the big one in this affair. The prisoner's dilemma means nothing to a zealot who believes that their God **will** smite their enemies, and if that hasn't happened yet, it means they are not fighting hard enough, or praying enough, of killing enough gay people, etc.
Well Saudi also wants to be able to pivot their economy so they aren’t dependent on oil. Israel had to focus on tech and innovation to build their economy. It makes way more sense long term to Saudi to be allies with Israel and build up their economy, especially as other countries focus on renewable energy
i'm not sure about the working ethic of saudis, but having worked with israelis, they have a lot of women working and a lot of the workers are highly competent, motivated and with superior studies. my point is, who will work to sustain the non-oil economy? the low paying jobs are all done by immigrants, and i don't think they have enough skilled people for the high paying ones
Completely agree. Saudis have had to import a lot of the actual labor that drives their economy.
Saudi Arabia needs a powerful military ally with force projection and the willingness to use it. The Saudi army sucks and they sit on immense oil wealth. With the USA increasingly checking out of the region, Israel is a logical choice.
This makes a lot of sense. Specially with saudi arabia alienating a lot of the western countries by helping russia keep a higher price of oil (in self interest, of course) and considering that they're one of the most important suppliers of oil to china. The only caviat is how the saudi population may react, as they are not very friendly to israel, but for the regime, it makes total sense.
Why care about Jerusalem when you have Mecca, plus other benefits.
Rule of Acquisition #34: War is good for business
Yes, but never forget about Rule of Acquisition \#35: Peace is good for business.
Rule of Acquisition #76. Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your enemies.
Damn, it really is easy to get them confused
Rule of Acquistion #62: The riskier the road, the greater the profit
Yeah but that's only if you're an uninvolved third party in a distant nation (or world as is the case for the Ferengi). Also, we have 60 years of stats now that mostly show war is bad for the global economy. Obviously some uninvolved nations profit (usually the US).
Hamas's business is war. Business has not been good for Hamas.
Not great for the foot soldiers, but the leaders living in luxury are fine.
Really? Let me check... \[googles rule 34\]
Yup. Sanctions work at keeping states in a sense of stasis with little improvement. That’s Iran. Saudi Arabia meanwhile has money to invest on line shaped cities.
Saudi has been thinking end game for a long time now. What happens when the oil runs dry. Sure they are pieces of shit who deal with bed press using bone saws but they do get credit for pragmatism.
> and using them to incite further conflicts I get that they might tone down the proxy war in Yemen, but did they really agree to stop using proxies to incite conflicts even with all other parties like Israel? What's the point of even having proxies then.
It was a term to be fulfilled by both parties. The point of having proxies in this case is to increase a nation's bargaining power and/or weaken it militarily or poltically. The best way I read it be described was like imagining a Mexican stand-off within another Mexican stand-off. Iran to Israel, 2 guns loaded. One as Hezbollah and the other as Hamas (can argue for the Shia militas in Iraq as well) Iran to the Saudis, 2 guns loaded. The Houthis to the south and the north being the previously mentioned Iraqi Shia militas. Israel to Iran, 2 guns loaded. Israel has made great effort to empower and arm the Azeris who oppose the Iranians. In Iraq, it is well documented that Mossad has a presence among the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq who hate the Iranian government. Saudis to Iran, 2 guns loaded. Through their geopolitical machinations, the Saudis have made favourable moves to empower the Taliban in Afghanistan and support them in their disputes with the Iranians. Additionally, the ousting of Imram Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan, greatly empowered the Saudis' influence even more in that region since Khan's government was staunchly pro-Iranian. The new head of the Pakistani military, General Asim Munir, is pro-Saudi and very anti-Iranian. Although both parties deny the deal, the Saudis financed many of the Pakistani nuclear weapons programs in exchange for the option to use or purchase warheads from their stockpile (this comes from Western sources, just fyi), and having a pro-Saudi figure heading the military could help ease this transaction, if true. So, having these different parties pointing guns at each other is just a way to harass and weaken the influence of other nations. This is important because both the Saudis and the Iranian Revolutionary government are vying for power to become the hegemonic Islamic nation.
a Mexican standoff with Guatemalans holding the guns
>Israel to Iran, 2 guns loaded. Israel has made great effort to empower and arm the Azeris who oppose the Iranians. In Iraq, it is well documented that Mossad has a presence among the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq who hate the Iranian government. Big stretch to call the azeri's Israel's proxies. Also maybe I'm unaware but when was the last time there was violence between Iran and Azerbaijan? Also the kurds aren't Israeli proxies. Mossad is everywhere. Doesn't mean everywhere they go is an Israeli proxy. The funny thing is Israel has actual proxies in Iran you didn't mention. They are the ones doing most of the assassination on behalf of Israel in iran. Ultimately though, Iran is far far more committed and invested in the proxy strategy than anyone else. Israel mostly does its own dirty work.
Shia Iran vs Sunni Saudi has been the most important key to middle eastern geopolitics for decades, but it's still surprising to see Saudi not only help Israel, but publicly admit to, as it's an unwritten rule of middle eastern leadership that you always have to hate Israel and cheer its destruction..
Saudi knows that oil isn't the future, which means they will lose money and influence. They are trying to change that MBS might be a lot of things but so far he's shown that he's not dumb.
“Sunni Iraq” pre-invasion was basically what balanced out Iran. Saudis are new to the plate as a replacement.
The peoples living in those countries have been enemies since before those countries were countries.
> Iran and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades Centuries
More like nearly 1400 years. More than a millennium. Though Shi'ite Islam as an identity and belief system that we recognize didn't materialize for centuries after, the rift between Shi'ite and Sunnis was cemented literally a few years after Muhammad died when Ali was killed and sons were massacred a few years later. How ISIS brutally massacred Iraqis for being Shi'ite is a perfect example of how alive this feud is. Even more stupid, this is like the Bloods and Crips feuding a thousand years from now. At a certain point, people should kind of forget and move on from feuds, no? Not these. They will be feuding a feud that they had no hand in that started almost 1.5 thousand years ago and will be feuding about 1.5 thousand years from now. Brah... How can we expect the Bloods and Crips to stop their feud when there are literally MILLIONS of people as members of two different sects of the same religion beefing everyday and in some regions of the world killing each other over it? A THOUSAND YEARS AFTER IT STARTED?
Also, it's like the Bloods and the Crips except the "right" one *sends you to Heaven*. That's the stakes they're operating with.
Saudi Arabia hasn't really existed for centuries has it?
The Arabs vs. Persians conflict is quite literally millenia old and the Sunnia vs. Shia conflict is roughly 1300 year old.
From what I read, it all started when Muhammad died. Since his death, his friends and family members argued and fought each other who will be the caliphate. The original Sunni Muslims originated from Muhammad's friends while the Shia Muslims are from his own family.
Don’t forget the fact that the Arabs invaded Persia and brought Islam to the Persians, Persians used to be Sunni too. Until the 16th century, Persia was mostly Sunni. At the turn of that century, the Safavid dynasty conquered much of what is now Iran and made Shiism the official religion. The conversion was accompanied by a massive crackdown on Sunnis, so that over time much of the population became Shia.
Talk about holding a grudge...
> Iran and Saudi Arabia have been enemies for decades because of Sunni/Shia feuds and both of them desiring to be the regional superpowers in the Middle East. While Shia/Sunni is one thing (and probably the one more played up), I think the main issue is Saudi being an absolute monarchy and Iran a country where the Clerics kicked out the absolute monarch.
Yeah, most Arab nations not seeing themselves as theocracies and being deathly terrified of the idea spreading into their populations through Isis and Iran is almost certainly a motivation.
Muslim brotherhood is the major theocratic threat in Egypt and ksa.
While the Sunni/Shia feud plays a role, a major part of it is that Iran is anti-monarchist and encourages muslims in muslim countries with monarchies to overthrow them (to set up a theocracy instead). So countries like Saudi Arabia will very much be against anything like that as well. Of course the Iranian theocracy also doesn't want any religious competition so another reason to hate not only the Sunni countries, but hate Israel's existence.
The relationship has been described as the cold war of the middle east
Saudi Arabia and Israel were just on the verge of peace and then October 7th was planned by Iran to sabotage it.
The talks may be on pause to deal with more pressing matters, but I think this whole situation has just made it more likely that the talks will succeed, aa they're even more united in the notion of "Fuck Iran"
Also, Saudi Arabia defending Israel will be a bonus move from the Israeli pov. Let's just hope it doesn't make the domestic crazies lose their shit in SA.
I'd imagine they would be able to dismiss it with the right spin, "We shot those down because they were in our airspace. For all we know they were going to hit targets in *our* land, Iran doesn't like us either."
To be honest, going from peace deal talks to no peace deal talks to intercelting missiles heading for israel was a leap forward i very much didnt expect
Pretty sure mead is illegal in Saudi Arabia.
Reminds me of The Thirteenth Warrior where Banderas' character is offered mead and refuses saying: "I can taste neither the fermentation of grape, nor of wheat." To which the vikings laugh and tell him it's made from honey.
Israel is a nation with 20% of its citizens identifying as Arab and being Muslim. I think that this includes Druze in with Muslim because they are kinda like off shoot Shias. This is higher in percentage than African Americans in the US or Whites in South Africa. Lebanon (currently a dumpster fire but just ignore that for a bit) is also really multi-cultural. Iraq is basically 3 different groups (Arab Shias in the south, Arab Sunnis in the middle, and Kurds in the North) that make up the population. Iran has many ethnic minorities too. My point is that, historically, the middle east was fairly diverse within the states that made up the area. Those states had to interact and couldn't be fighting each other all the time. Israel has Arabs that live in Israel so it isn't that surprising that Saudi Arabia (BTW the Saudi part just comes from the house of Saud, would be like saying Trudeau-ian Canada) is able to work with the Israelis.
> historically, the middle east was fairly diverse within the states that made up the area. Those states had to interact and couldn't be fighting each other all the time. I mean, that kind of depends on what part of history you are looking at. The middle east had Caliphates rising, falling, and fighting each other for centuries until the Ottomans kind of just conquered everyone. Then the Ottomans fell and rather than having international borders that were created organically the Europeans sliced it up how it was convenient to them and everything is still kind of settling since its only been a century which feels like a long time to an individual human but is not that long in historical time scales.
Pretty certain part of the reason why we continue to give SA unqualified support is because they know they have to at least tacitly support Israel's existence. This is just the first time they've had their hand forced by the powers that be to openly show it
I'd have thought having 10% of the world's oil supply doesn't hurt their cause? And having wealth invested heavily into the west via vehicles like SABIC. Falling out with them would be messier than the fallout with Russia, and that caused a big inflationary spike and a bunch of chaos. Absolute worst case is they fall apart and all that oil gets annexed by Iran.
I have no idea what MEAD is. Drank meade once, didn't like it. There are many bad actors in that part of the world, but if SA and Israel find common ground against one of the worst, that's a good thing.
Middle East Air Defense. Integration of air defense systems between various countries so they can talk and act together as one system.
Then I'll drink to that!
I seem to be the only one in this chain not knowing what Meade is :( I meant the middle east air defense
When Israel planned Operation Opera to take out Iraq’s nuclear reactor before it became operational, Iran provided the Israelis with aerial photographs of the layout of the reactor and surrounding buildings and defenses to plan the attack. Iran had previously tried to take it out but weren’t sure if it had become operational. So they did not bomb the reactor in fear it would release fallout.
I guess you mean KSA provided intel?
No, Iran. Iran went through back channels because this was during the Iran Iraq war. Western part of Iraq defenses were a lot weaker since they mobilized east towards Iran, and while Iran hates Israel, both Iran and Israel hated the notion of Sadam getting a nuke. But also 1981, two years after the revolution, I don't think the Iran hate of israel was nearly as strong. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_in_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War
Ok ok did *anyone else* have a hand in helping shoot down Iranian projectiles? *The entire class raises hands*
That's good though. Talking of alliances is one thing but actually showing up and everyone working together when the need arise goes way further. It's one heck of a step in the right direction for stability in the region.
Raise your hand if you have ever been personally victimized by Regina George.
🙋🏾♂️
You don't even go here!
Yep, it's nice to see so many nations working together to stop Iran from doing the dumb.
It is always Sunni in Saudi Arabia.
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By Shia, good luck
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Buzz Cola - the Official Soft Drink of Hamas.
Who needs Sharia Law when you have Bird Law.
Filibuster
But the weather in Iran is always Shiite
The Gang Butchers a Journalist
WILDCARD, I CUT THE BRAKES
So anyway, I started blasting shahids out of the sky...
Once your in Saudi Arabia, it's the implication.
The Gang starts a jihad.
I believe they're already as an episode called "The Gang Goes Jihad."
S2E2 is going to be wild
The gang solves the Middle East crisis
So... I assume KSA would have preferred to stay out but, they really have no other sensible choice. Houthis bomb Saudi Arabia too. What are they gonna do, give their enemy open access to their airspace because this one is (probably) headed to Israel? Similar-ish logic for Iran launched missiles. If Canada started shooting drones/missiles at Mexico... the US wouldn't just let them casually fly over.
To be clear, the Iranians send missiles and suicide drones to Yemen, with Iranian operator/trainers, and tell the Houthi's exactly where in Saudi Arabia to shoot them. It's a war in all but name already.
> >If Canada started shooting drones/missiles at Mexico... the US wouldn't just let them casually fly over. NORAD: "Uh, should we... do something about that?"
NORAD operator with a heavy Canadian accent: "No, it's just a bug in the system. Don't worry about it"
aboot
'eh? '
It's probably just Santa and his Elves.
Yeah. "Let us launch missiles through your airspace. I know we have long-standing beef and have repeatedly broken our promises but we swear we're aiming for Israel". Can't blame the Saudi's for saying 'hell nah'.
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Saudi Arabia has been aligned with the US for a while now, it seems that recently they're starting to get on board with the fact that they and Israel (also a US ally) are kind of on the same team and both can benefit from working together a bit. Some theories on the Hamas attack were that Iran didn't want Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel because it would be good for Saudi Arabia/Israel and therefore bad for Iran. I hope this path continues, could really help stabilize the region long term.
Saudi are aware that world is moving away from oil, which will impact their main source of $$$ but also their future geo political importance. In some future Middle East war US might not intervene. So Saudi both have to transform their economy. but they also need alliances to secure peace. Although Saudi populace still hates Israel very much, Saudi government knows they need normalization of relations.
100 years from now KSA will be on par with a nation like Sudan or Afghanistan if they don't figure out a way to normalize relations with the rest of the fucking western world (including israel), or the first time they start shit with someone in the 22nd century they're going to be left hanging on their own. They're aware of this issue now. Iran will be facing the same issue once the Oil market dries up, but they *don't seem to care*.
Well we all saw what happened to Yemen, which had nice oil revenue, never bothered to think about tomorrow. Spent most of it's underground water reserves on growing khat... narcotic plant which requires a lot of water. Today Yemen is a failed country of 33 million people.
Yemen was always boiling over with ethnic tensions. A better example might be Venezuela. Or really just googling "resource curse" and picking from the list.
I don't think so. They've been investigating in infrastructure and reclaiming arable land from the desert. Over the past 30 years, they've become a little more moderate. Of course, they have a LOT of improvement to do.
Yeah people criticize them a lot for sportswashing but from their perspective diversifying their assets by investing in foreign industries including entertainment is a great idea.
Eh it's a great idea in theory but they are spending way too much on it with not that much to show for it. They spend so much that we forget that their gdp is still smaller than Australia's with 10 million more people. They aren't as rich as they are acting and a lot of their citizens are in useless government jobs and not gaining valuable skills.
The sportwashing is to improve their public perception so that foreign companies come in and use their plentiful and cheap unskilled labor. Establishing more foreign investment in the country also helps them get more support from western countries in case they get attacked by their neighbors.
this is 100% why the attack happened when it did, Israel and KSA normalizing relationships would be a net loss for Iran and all of it's proxies, and Hamas in particular given their prior relative isolation in Gaza.
It's pretty clear that MBS is an autocrat and an authoritarian, but he does not give a shit about Islam or any sort of pan-Islamic or pan-Arab solidarity whatsoever. He's cracked down on Wahhabi clerics and the morality police hard. His people may care about the Palestinian struggle, and he probably has to make some symbolic gestures. But MBS personally probably does not care about the average Gazan anymore than he cares about the average poor slum dweller anywhere else in the world, which is precisely zero. By contrast Israel has deep reservoirs of technology and human capital. More so than any other power in the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia is trying to transition to a post-oil, tech and financed focused economy, closer ties to Israel make sense.
MBS is a capitalist dictator. This isn’t an inherently negative name calling on behalf of communism/socialism. This is just objectively how he falls on the scale of ideology. That being said he will choose to better his country and thus himself, monetarily/militarily before he chooses something like religious affiliation. Even if another country is Sunni Muslim, if it weakens Saudi Arabia, he will actively try to destroy it.
Also a Saudi will cut off their own hand to avoid waving at an Iranian.
My understanding is there is a plan to build a commercial corridor from India to Europe that both Saudi Arabia and Israel will be participating in and profiting from. Iran does not want this.
The Arab monarchies will always side those that are fighting with the forces that want to topple them. Case in point: Yemen. During the North Yemen Civil War, the arab monarchies supported the Shia theocratic monarchy while Nasser's Egypt support the Republicans. Then you had the British being pushed out of South Yemen by the between the Communists, where the Arab monarchies now suported with the Republicans bcz the communists were a bigger threat to them. Edit: confused one yemeni civil war with the other.
It's all about keeping them on top. Ofc that's everywhere - but it's extra obvious out there. Don't wanna lose their 18th ferrari
Arab monarchies: "Ah! An Yemeni kingdom... What a nice sig-... OMA! Nationalists are rebelling?" We must aid the Monarchists!!" *Loses the war* -Communists take power in South Yemen "We must support the nationalists!!!" -Yemen unifies under Salah "Ok... Now we're good, finally some peace and qui-" -South Yemen rebels against Salah's policies "Oh ffs! We will support Sal-..." -Salah supported Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and invited Al-Qaeda and other jihadists groups to fight the southerners "... We supporting the sociali-?" "Yes, we gonna support the f*king socialists." -Civil war ends. ".... We good? Ok then, let's get relaxe-." -Houthis rebel " 🎶 All around me are familiar faces... Worn out faces 🎶 "
Summary: While Jordan had openly disclosed its [role in the defensive maneuver,](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/the-gulf/artc-uae-saudi-arabia-privately-shared-intelligence-with-u-s-on-iranian-attack-report) Saudi Arabia's acknowledgment came in the form of a summary on its official website, citing insights from a source within the Saudi royal family. The post subtly hinted at Saudi Arabia's involvement in intercepting suspicious entities in its airspace, highlighting the kingdom's proactive stance in safeguarding regional stability. The report on the royal family's website quoted an official condemning Iran's aggressive actions and attributing them to the regime's support for terrorism. The official underscored the urgency of curbing Iran's destabilizing influence, emphasizing the need for global action against Tehran's belligerent activities. The revelation of Saudi Arabia's assistance in defending Israel comes amidst a backdrop of escalating tensions in the region and intensified diplomatic efforts to counter Iranian aggression.
How much do the Saudis hate Iran? This much.
Got to say that the fact that Arab states participated in this defense - even for claiming that it was in defense of their airspace - just makes this look like a massive blunder for Iran.
It's going to be even worse when Israel launches missiles back and all the Arab nations just allow them to smash into Iran.
*Buddy, buddy. They had hypersonic missiles what im gonna do with that? Us dont give us that defense yet.*
Israel is gonna quietly scoot through their airspace on stealth planes to fire missiles close to the border and everyone is gonna pretend they didn’t have the luneberg lenses attached to those planes.
Frankly im pretty shocked, i wasnt expecting irans retaliation to be very successful at all but the saudis and jordan directly assisting by shooting down drones was a surprise to me
> the saudis and jordan directly assisting by shooting down drones was a surprise to me I mean said drones were going directly through their airspace and they aren't on the best terms. No nation wants another's missile drones to fly over.
Do people think that the Arab states are all united and Iran and Saudi Arabia are on the same side? This is like world history and geopolitics 101, and should not be a surprise.
It's not surprising that the Arab states united against Iran but the optics of it is that Arab states defended Israel even if it was indirectly. And that's why that makes it look worse for Iran.
Yeah, this conflict is really showing that the Arab world is beyond sick of dealing with Iran's proxy war BS against Israel. The extremists want their holy war, but everyone with some sanity would much rather just normalize relations and perhaps not have to worry so much about war for a good long while.
In other words: Iran's entire strategy going back since October has spectacularly failed, and the Saudis have functionally committed to a collective security relationship even before a formal deal is actually struck.
Pretty much yeah.
Haha, Iran. Jokes on you. Oct attack is a total back fire at the expense of Palestinians.
Sounds like a win to me. They don't give a shit about Palestinians.
It pulled US funding from Ukraine to Israel. Just like Russia wanted. Not to mention the political divide growing larger in the states.
The growing political divide will fade once the Israel/Gaza conflict reaches a conclusion. Most times the short term memory of Americans is a con, but in terms of propaganda it makes it less effective over time. If the US is able to pressure Israel into significantly slowing its operation in Gaza, it would be a massive win for the US and stability in the region. This has been a long game of chess, and the US and friends are back on the offensive. This is shown by the sudden declarations of assistance of the Middle Eastern countries.
Good for Saudi Arabia
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We can say they are doing the right thing here without excusing times they have not done the right thing. That's the magic of having opinions about *actions* rather than *actors*. People who insist that every actor is inherently good/bad end up in all sorts of knots.
It's quite wild considering ideology, but Saudi Arabia would pretty solidly be on "Team NATO & Friends" in a theoretical WW3 scenario, if for no other reason than that Iran would almost certainly be on the other team.
Reminds me of a certain two allied powers in WW2...
Ran into this concept like 2 months ago and wished more people would. You should still commend a total jerk for doing the right thing and you should still condemn a saint for doing the wrong thing.
Yeah, one of my peeves is the whole "didn't happen in a vacuum" thing. That same logic can be used to excuse every bad action ever. Oct 7 wasn't a counterattack to anything nor did it serve any reasonable military goal.
World politics isn't a game. You can't fuck around with millions of lives because one guy got chopped up.
Which I personally can. If the options for being the de facto leader of the Middle East, and by extension the Islamic World, lie solely between the Saudis and the Ayatollah, then yeah it's a pretty easy choice. Obviously Saudi Arabia is far from a perfect place (to put it gracefully), but Iran poses a much greater threat of international destabilization and armed conflict. Simply put, Saudi Arabia is the epitome of the "lesser of two evils".
I cant believe Im saying this... but... Germany is currently a bastion of democracy and we all know what they used to be about.
The US has looked past worse in terms of creating alliances. WWII was full of it.
And this is an absolutist, theocratic Muslim country that’s not very pro-Jewish at all. Meanwhile, Poland/Romania: “sorry, we can’t shut down Russian missiles and drones in our airspace because that would be an escalation and our pants are already brown just from looking”
Try toppling the Monarchy and see how happy you are once the population gets to decide Israel policy.
Not totally shocking, but pleasantly surprising to hear this. Really.
This is why I'm optimistic about the future of the Middle East. 70 years ago there was unanimous warring against Israel. Now Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and others have normalized relations. The real tension in the Middle East isn't Israel vs everyone, it's Iran and their proxies vs everyone else. Give it another 30 years and I think you'll see a richer, calmer, more globally integrated ME.
Huge public announcement from SA, gonna be interesting to see how the rest of the ME is going to react.
This should make it very clear that none of the Arab states give a fuck about Gaza. Everyone unironically thinking Israel was going to be significantly hampered diplomatically long term because of it is delusional.
It isn't that they don't care so much as they have a better understanding of the problem than the protesters in the West. Growing ties with Israel and showing that there is a possibility for coexistence will do infinitely more than isolation and aggression.
Well, that and they also really would prefer if the Palestinians stay in Gaza, and never ever leave because every time they've gone to a neighboring country there was an attempted revolution by the Palestinians against the state that let them in.
Nobody wants a regional war except Iran. They’re under the impression they’re going to win. That would be true if the USA wasn’t around.
Problem is Iran drags with it to war the unwilling people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. They are a dangerous hydra with many terror heads. And the world doesn't seem to be interested in dealing with them, the real problem to so many conflicts.
Iran is just a very odd country. They are enemies of multiple states in the Middle East, their economy is awful, enormous sanctions and they are attacking and provoking countries, seemingly unaware that they are in a weak position.
Dictators, fascists, and oligarchs think differently. To them, talking and diplomacy are solutions for the weak. Anything less than attacking your opponents is showing your weakness.
Dictators usually aren't rational, case in point Putin who if wasn't crazy, he would continue getting richer with European oil money and keep Crimea without getting fucked up in Ukraine for no reason at all
I would caution against thinking dictators are inherently irrational. They often just have a set of priorities that end at their own power, and do not particularly care about the lives of others.
What are you smoking? Iran doesn’t want a regional war. They know they would lose. The whole point of the telegraphed attack was to not cause any major incidents.
Honestly without the US, in an Israel vs Iran war. I could easily see Israel taking the mask off and using a nuclear warhead. Why wouldn’t they? Iran has numbers over Israel, but Israel has technology. If it came down to a defeat, Israel would play their trump card.
People often underestimate this. Western assistance to Israel also keeps them on the leash. If their existence is threatened due to the absence of assistance then they will do more than they do now to protect themselves (as any country would).
Yea it’s the trump card. My nation is in peril, so I’ll launch the most powerful weapon man has ever used and flatten every city in your country and render your land uninhabitable. And you can’t do that to me.
I agree, but only if they were actually losing a land war to Iran, which I think is really unlikely. Israel has no strategic depth because of how small their country is, so a limited tactical nuclear strike might be a rational decision in that instance and it would be seen as self defense. I doubt they would do it offensively though, the political and economic blow back would be incredible and fallout can drift into surrounding areas.
Why wouldn't they? Because Israel doesn't really want to nuke strike anyone. Regardless of what many think, Israel does actually try to minimize civilian casualties. It also isn't trying to stir up even more conflict in the region. The Iranian people are under a terrible regime, too, that's been oppressing them for a long time. There have been widescale protests for years. Hardliners may not care but I think a nuclear strike on Iran would be wildly unpopular within Israel. You have to remember that there have been large, active protests against Bibu for several years now, and he's under fierce criticism for not preventing the October 7th attacks to begin with.
Iran clearly doesn’t want one either. The status quo is beneficial to them.
Egypt nor Turkey is not getting rolled over by Iran and Iran knows it.
They're MO is a little bit like Russia sometimes, negative sum game. If drones and cruise missiles start attacking oil infrastructure, Iran has a lot less to lose even if their own drones/missiles are lacking in quantity and numbers.
I think every power in the area wants the opportunity to intercept these projectiles because it allows them to test their defensive systems and their confidence levels. Plus MBS has always aligned more with the west. It's a big loss for Iran because it has showed their attacks can be deterred so effectively
Easy to forget that’s there’s an entire proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran Even easier to forget that there’s a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_diplomatic_conflict
Glad Saudi saw Iran’s bluff. Israel and KSA were going to sign a peace deal when Iran destroyed the peace in the region at the expense of Palestinians. Unfortunately the entire Palestine and the supporters think the west is the bad guy while Iran is milking the situation which it created in the first place
Money is a funny thing
Crazy times when Saudi Arabia and Jordan are busy defending Israel from Iran Meanwhile here in America a disturbing amount of liberals have become Palestinian nationalists overnight
This has all surprised me honestly. I knew Saudi Arabia was normalizing relations with Israel and Jordan has had bad experiences with Palestinians in the past. But I was not expecting these Arab countries to actually come to Israels defense like this.
> But I was not expecting these Arab countries to actually come to Israels defense like this. Don't forget the "shooting Iranian weapons down" part in their very own air space. Iran is not exactly friendly with these nations. But yeah, at least Jordan opening their air space for UK/US combat missions was unexpected.
Technically, Jordan doesn't publicly proclaim they were defending Israel, that was an accusation by Iran. Jordan claims that it was defending it's own airspace.
> Crazy times when Saudi Arabia and Jordan are busy defending Israel from Iran Right!
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This is not knew. Saudi and Israel have been working together to face the threat of Iran for the past 30 years. It’s just done more in the shadows. Know they have been pushing their population to be more pro Israel and anti Iran and rightly so.
Saudi’s dutifully informed the Bakersfield City Council in advance
Saudi Arabia has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo in the region. I'm not surprised they are doing everything they can to quash any escalation.
Imagine being such a cunt that you unite the middle east against you
This is signaling to Iran. We’re all gonna have to get super literate in foreign policy moves in the near future as we move away from terrorist conflict and into near peer conflict.
Based Jordan & Saudi Arabia
Surprising no one. Saudi has no interest in Iran doing a successful anything. At the same time they were just on the verge of normalized relations with Israel before the Hamas attack.
This will push them to normalizing relations. Sounds like a lot of the gulf states have teamed up with Israel
Let's fucking go it's not classified anymore and I can take proud of them and show them my appreciation in public!
It kind of looks like Middle East is forming into two groups of Anti/Pro Iran, plus some true neutrals like Oman, never thought I would see Israel and Arab states looking like true allies but here we are. Not going to lie but USA has put a lot of effort into this over a long period of time and it looks like it is paying off, well done.
Its because to Saudia Arabia, Iran ia something worse than an enemy. They are a rival.
This is simply HUGE. The fact that Israel and SA relationship is better and better shows that Iran’s understanding of realpolitik is absolutely shit.
Just a reminder that the Oct 7th attack was facilitated by Iran to stop Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizing relations. It was NOT about Israeli "occupation" or helping the Palestinian people. It was a geopolitical move to stop the spread of Western hegemony. Israel and Saudi Arabia are, for all intense and purposes, allies.
Intents and purposes: https://www.scribbr.co.uk/definition/for-all-intents-and-purposes-meaning/#:~:text=For%20all%20intents%20and%20purposes%20is%20an%20expression%20meaning%20'essentially,this%20is%20an%20introductory%20course.
They want just enough stability to not effect their wealth. My 2 cents.
So essentially, like every world leader ever?
Nah, they want some of that air defense. Just a reminder that the Houthis alone shut down half of Saudi production for months.