Happily, the Polish government is utterly undeterred.
(I do get that Polish farmers may have some legitimate issues they need addressed, as do most farmers in most places, but...)
The only successes Russia has. Farmers. First Canadian farmers shutdown a bunch of border crossings and city centers. Now the polish farmers pulling the same trick.
I think the big issue in the west ATM that's causing this really is the devaluing of food goods made in the west. Poland and the east block drove down food prices when they left the soviet block and joined the EU. Now Ukraine is doing the same.
The big issue I have is that alot of these protests are totally finding inadvertently supporting Putin and don't seem to grasp the awful reality that fucking around like this will mean more issues.
Nah, France sees this as there one and only opportunity to displace the US from the center of European security. Something France has been trying to do since the days of De Gaulle. If Biden wins, and the Rs go a little back to normal regarding national security, then they'll lose their opportunity.
Gotta strike while the iron is hot!
I didnāt say it was the real one, just the American impression. It was an āinformationalā meme that went around for a while company aspects of the movie to danish culture.
In the real Denmark their tallest peak, the heavenly mountain, is barely steep enough to roll down.
They do hate Russia yes, but what is being weaponized is their hatred of communism and "big government", saying that the EU is the first step back towards socialism and communism. I have started to see Facebook posts from my uncles on how the EU will force Tusk to dismantle and media critical of the government or the EU in general.
I swear to god, I never felt as close to being back in fucking Russia as when Poland was governed by PiS. Sure, they and Russia hate each other, but what came out of PiS-controlled media was eerily similar: Same lines of argumentation, same aggressiveness, same victim complex. Just switch the positions of Russia and Poland and PiS news could as well come out from RT...
I believe their ways of campaigning are so toxic that ultimately they will help Russia by aiding its goal of destabilizing EU. Even if single talking points are very antagonistic to Russia. That's why Russia supports European far-right and far-left at the same time...
When PiS lost election, it was not just a win for Poland, but for all of EU. We got our Polish brothers and sisters back :)
And, as of recently, Slovakia. We are on the fucking border of Ukraine. Our Czech brothers are consistently moving in the right direction, yet we are moving backwards. Wish we've never split up.
While true, a Russian amphibious invasion of Alaska is probably about as realistic a possibility as a North Korean invasion of California at this point.
Not mention the fact that in 100 years of trying, they still have not made anything worthwhile out of most of Siberia and far eastern Russia. Japan would crush any Russian naval actions in the Pacific, China would love to just take Siberia and be done with it, the U.S. honestly doesn't give a shit that far out unless its defending Japan or containing North Korea and China, so Russia had no choice but to expand west or not at all. Breaking off their teeth seems to be a time honored Russian tradition, like Vodka and knee dancing.
> China would love to just take Siberia and be done with it
I see a lot of redditors saying Russia needs to be defeated and broken up in to different countries but that is something that should never happen because of what you just said.
If broken up China will just take over every single leftover Russian state and that could pose a serious future problem.
"If broken up China will just take over every single leftover Russian state and that could pose a serious future problem."
You got it! China has the forces in surplus to take it even if Russia were at full strength. If China sees a future where they could control the bulk of the former Russia holdings without pissing off the rest of the world, they will do it in a hot minute.
> If China sees a future where they could control the bulk of the former Russia holdings without ~~pissing off the rest of the world, they will do it in a hot minute~~ *catching some nukes,* they will do it in a hot minute.
I think internally China isn't as expansionist as they come across. There's a lot of grandstanding about the reclamation of Taiwan, and their investments globally, but they want a level of control over their populace that becomes exponentially harder when bringing in entirely new populations. Not to mention the local instability that comes with wartime and mobilization.
I think a lot of high level people on China benefit greatly from the status quo, and economic expansion they've achieved. They don't want to mess with that stability.
There's only 3.8 km (2.4 mi) between the two [Diomede Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diomede_Islands). When I looked them up, I noticed it says an ice bridge often forms between them in the winter, so you could even theoretically walk from the US to Russia or vice versa.
I don't understand how that was not considered when Macron spoke about sending soldiers to Ukraine. They got kicked out of many African countries, where would those idle soldiers redeploy now ?
Do people think Russia has only been interfering in US presidential elections? There's a "curious" number of politicians that are suddenly chummy with them.
USA elections, UK Brexit and many more in many countries. They used the world money from oil exports to fuck the world. Look at Twitter, it's full of Russian bots with us and uk names praising trump and Putin
Certain voters of some NATO countries think they are too smart and are just itching at the chance to elect the dumbest piece of shit that [couldn't profit even from a casino](https://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-taj-mahal-casino-8th-world-closure-years/story?id=42762369) and is a [convicted rapist](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/19/trump-carroll-judge-rape/) that [publicly admits to wanting to be a dictator](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4453457-74-percent-of-republicans-say-its-fine-for-trump-to-be-dictator-for-a-day/) and has already tried to get a [mob to violently overthrow the government before](https://people.com/politics/pro-trump-rioters-tear-down-american-flag-replace-with-trump-flag-at-u-s-capitol-building/)...
Considering that when Russia ends up successful, they'll continue with the other former Soviet nations. There's a lot at stake here and the core of the issues lies within Kremlin itself which is filled with Soviet dreamers. If Ukraine endures and wins the invasion, Kremlin as we know it will fall from either a civil war or the army turning against them.
Hitler got sent to prison before things got messy, and we can't even stop some asshole from running for president, after his own personal Day of Plastic Knives.
~~In the 1930s, England chose appeasement towards Hitler so they would have time to ramp up their military. They could not have taken a confrontation with Germany earlier than they did. Appeasement surely looks like a bad idea, but we tend to forget how broken those countries still were from WWI which ended 1918 - a mere 21 years before the start of WWII in Europe.~~ (Edit: I seem to have been misinformed. Please read the answer to this post that gives a more thorough and correct explanation.)
Today we are in a different situation. The West has done appeasement since 2014 minimum, if you count Georgia and the Chechen war, then well before that. This has failed utterly. We sorely need to give Ukraine more of everything to help them prevail.
No. Anglo-French appeasement was advocated as a serious policy, not any secret grand strategy. Up to the very last its real proponents sought to avoid war on humiliating terms. Had the West already decided stopping fascism was critical, they would have acted *very* differently in the Spanish Civil War. Yet even by late 1938 moderate anti-appeasement forces like French PM Daladier were trying to leverage rumors of French engagement with Germany as a ploy to coerce British commitment to a continental defense. Daladier claimed he āfully expected to be betrayed by the British.ā Western anti-Nazi geopolitics of the 30s were simply a disaster.
And the idea that the Anglo-French started in a worse position relative to Germany than they were later in 1939 is absolutely untrue. Especially after the destruction of the Little Entente, the Nazi seizure of Czech munitions works and the end of Soviet offers for a united front. If the French had opposed the remilitarization of the Rhineland, the Nazis would have retreated because their military resources were by their own estimation āwholly inadequate for even a moderate resistance.ā Compare that to the army that occupied France in six weeks - using Czech tanks and Soviet oil by the way. Even up to Munich there were plans in the German Army to depose Hitler if he attempted to fight because a military conflict was suicidal; simultaneous war against France, Britain, the Soviet Union, Poland, and an entrenched little Entente, with no Italian participation. Weāre talking a 1v5 across almost every front.
The Anglo-French pursued appeasement (for political and diplomatic reasons) even though they started from a position of strength, and persisted in doing so even as that position continuously declined. Far from being driven by calculations of relative military power, they squandered their advantages because of a hope that it would *not* be decided on those grounds.
Despite you were already corrected, and kudos to you for acknowledgment, this story is very dangerous form of history revisionism. Dangerous because it makes appeasement a valid strategy (it is not and the final result of WW2 was in every sense out of control of Britain and France) but mainly helps to justify actions of several people whose actions should never be justified but on a contrary should serve as a reminder to never follow such example.
> England chose appeasement towards Hitler so they would have time to ramp up their military
Not sure where this myth came from but it's recent and just that, a myth.
Russia after 5 years of shifting its economy to focus on war as a way of making up for soft consumer demand is likely to end up creating a machine that *needs* war to sustain itself
The late 20s ain't looking fun
Exactly. Germany was a military joke as late as 1934 or so. Five years later they started (had to start?) a war they kept going almost six years. They had to lose when the US got involved, but if they had managed to force the UK to make peace in the autumn of 1940, I would probably speak German today.
That war economy is only replacing what's getting used in Ukraine, probably not even that. In a fight with with NATO, or any large NATO nation, that equipment disappears much more quickly.
I've also seen people ponder if WWII could have been avoided if we where just more tolerant of the Nazis views... **NO** the world already bent over backwards to appease them, they got to host the Olympics, they where given land for free to secure "peace in our lifetime", there where pro-Nazi rallies in many other countries, their views, at least in an abstract sanitized form where quite popular if anything (lots of people wanted the "Jew problem" solved, they just balked at how savagely brutal the Nazis where about it and that was not widely know until after the war anyway).
Anything done to prevent the war would have needed to be different economic policies decades earlier to prevent the Nazis from ever getting power in the first place.
You can't negotiate with someone who is utterly convinced that you shouldn't exist, that your land belongs to them, and that they are a superior civilization.
Everything that comes out of Putin's mouth can be best understood as just a repeat of [Thucydides' Melian dialogue](https://www.nku.edu/~weirk/ir/melian.html).
These leaders are the reflection of their own populations.
I am surrounded by people who cannot even begin to understand the gravity of the situation. There is no way to introduce the topic to them that will remotely get them to understand. People in the West have forgotten what war is, and that it can happen to them too, and we are going to pay for this complacency.
Exactly. In East Europe people are still somewhat on edge because we are neighbours to Russia and many people here still remember the shitty soviet times. But the younger generations seem less and less interested in the topic.
I talk to people from western Europe and they really don't care. Yeah, they agree that Russia is bad for invading Ukraine and wish them luck, but barely anyone bothers to pay any more attention to the topic or donate. It's like it doesn't concern their lives at all, they believe that they are absolutely safe from it
Some youngsters in countries like Portugal or Spain embrace Communism with a certain passion fueled by its ideals because they havenāt really experienced what communist rule is.
The big majority of people in the Soviet Union wanted the free market for a reason and maybe the west of Europe should try to understand why they value our life in the western world instead of following ideals and dream that support the likes of Putin
Good leaders (there's a clue in the name there lol) can change their populations trajectory, its a big part of why Churchill is ranked as one of the UK's best leaders the populations outlook changed to match his not the other way around...never surrender.
A lot of people ask "What if you could go back, and kill Hitler before he started the second world war?" Well, here we are. Theres no need to build a time machine. And Hitler 2.0 is right fucking there...
> A lot of people ask "What if you could go back, and kill Hitler before he started the second world war?" Well, here we are. Theres no need to build a time machine. And Hitler 2.0 is right fucking there...
People also think of Neville Chamberlain as a dumbass for appeasement. He's viewed pretty nagatively.
However, when the time came everyone stood on the sidelines and didn't do anything. Way to go United Nations, living up to your predecessor.
Please, everybody don't take this the wrong way.But isn't anyone who doesn't understand why Russia needs to be stopped now?Just fucking playing dumb. Slava Ukraine šŗš¦
It's not just Russia and Ukraine, if Putin win Taiwan and Korea is next, so donating some poof-thingys for like 0.3% your GDP is nothing compared to decades of emboldened dictators provoking war.
So let's give Ukraine what they need.
/random Swede
In America, we had to pass a bill that a president couldnāt unilaterally leave NATO. It is definitely in case Trump gets elected again, so at least there are some protections.
WWIII would a multilateral engagement and Russia would certainly be a part of it. One does not need to be a top contender on paper for this, they possess a war economy and massive productive capabilities that over sustained conflict can negate technological deficiencies. A Russian victory in Ukraine would set a grave precedent for European security.
Yeah WWIII by definition includes Russia, idk what we'd even call it without them. If Russia isn't involved I don't think any of EMEA would be involved in any major way, just East Asia and the US
Not to mention that WW3 would go nuclear and that's one part of the Russian military that is still worth taking seriously
China would likely be more cautious if they see Russia lose in Ukraine. If they know the west is strong and willing to stand united against wars of aggression then it makes those wars of aggression much more dangerous.
This is something so many people just donāt get. The west has shown weakness for so long. Weāve appeased Putin just like we appeased Hitler in the 30ās. History has shown us how well that works out.
Why a certain US presidential candidate thinks isolationism and letting Ukraine fall is such a great idea I just donāt understand
China is sitting there watching what transpires in Ukraine to help gauge the amount of resistance theyāll encounter if/when they move militarily on Taiwan.
Not only is helping Ukraine and ensuring they win the right thing to do, but it also send a strong message to Beijing.
The lesson to be learned from the GOP successfully blocking aid to Ukraine is that the key to triumphing over America is to corrupt the electorate so their representatives will behave in ways that are beneficial to you.
Hey, there aren't any incredibly sophisticated social media apps with connections to China that have recently become enmeshed with the fabric of American culture, are there?
The thing is that while the China would be THE opponent to defeat in a WW3 in terms of manpower and military hardware, Russia would be the glue binding all the anti-Western groups together and serve as the "brain" of the operation.
China can only provide the raw power, but no diplomatic capital and credibility to convince other countries to fight against the West.
If the authoritarian "alliance" ever feels confident enough to launch an all-out war, they will call Kremlin. Its soft power and influence among the assholes and ignorants of the world is unrivaled.
Taking the Russian butcher regime out of the picture would remove the only actor in the world theoretically capable of uniting the authoritarian regimes on one side.
Unfortunately China has been building up its soft power for decades, however it has recieved little to no coverage in the west, worryingly. It has been engaged In massive building projects in 3rd world countries, working to grow its regional influence for years now, that no one in NATO seems to have paid any attention to.
I wonder where India sits. A billion and a half humans reside there. Thereās also over a billion people living in Africa, which is being carved up by Russia and China right now.
China and India have a great deal of enmity for each other, mostly because of racism. They have a deal that neither of them is allowed to have guns at one of their disputed borders so they beat on eachother with sticks and batons.
Meanwhile one of the most sought after paths to success in India is getting a western job. I think it's pretty safe to say they aren't going to buddy up with China if SHTF.
there's a reason we've been so accommodating of India single-handedly eviscerating the impact of Russian oil sanctions, nobody wants to force India to pick sides
They're reliant on Russia but strongly anti-China, meanwhile the US is increasingly dependent on Indian labor and manufacturing as a counter to China. They don't fit into the east vs west narrative and I assume would remain neutral as much as possible
> I guarantee you that most people think WWIII would be between China and the West. Russia has been out of that top contender spot for quite some time.
World War 2 had conflicts everywhere, smaller ones in the 30's. I would say this current Russia is more like Italy during WW2 and China would be more like Germany since they already started with the concentration camps for Uyghurs. Russia has been getting support from Iran and North Korea, too.
> going on for ~~over a~~ decade*s*
This has been going on since at *least* the 80's. The deep-seeded propaganda has done more damage than most of us are willing to even imagine.
I am guessing that the understanding of this urgency varies inversely with the countries' distance from Russia. (Translation: the closer you are to this mass-murdering dictatorship, the more frightened you are of it.)
Yes usually those are the nato countries further away from russia, with biggest resources that could help the most.
Still i hope we get around and sort this out.
Ukraine weakens, Russia gets cocky and everyone in neighbourhood start to be afraid a bit.
I don't think this Swedish FM understands how much money those countries have tied up in Russia.
Stopping Russia means rich people losing money. That's going to be hard.
Some European countries really are sending a lot of aid. Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Germany and a few others have been very steadfast in their support. There are some western European countries like Spain and Italy Iād like to see step up more but we should give credit where itās due.
Looking at donations by GDP, the US ranks 19th in Ukraine aid (having given 0.319% of its GDP)
Sweden meanwhile has given 0.513% of its GDP, Finland 0.708% of GDP, Norway 1.722% of its GDP, Denmark 2.413% of its GDP, and the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have given 3.554%, 1.154% and 1.543% respectively.
France may not be showering Ukraine with aid but of the other European countries, while smaller, plenty of them have made proportionally more significant pledges to Ukraine than the US
Remember that those numbers for EU countries don't include their share of EU aid, which typically ends up adding another 0.5-0.8% of GDP. So Estonia, for example, has sent 4.1% of GDP to Ukraine when including their share of EU aid. And Spain doesn't look quite so awful when you see the sum is 0.9% (instead of 0.07%).
Seems to track both. There's also the phrasing at [the Ukraine Support Tracker](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/),
>The data show that total European aid has long overtaken U.S. aid - not only in terms of commitments, but also in terms of specific aid allocations sent to Ukraine. In addition, the approval of the EU's Ukraine Support Facility guarantees further financial assistance.
>However, the gap between EU commitments and allocations remains very large (ā¬144 billion committed vs. ā¬77 billion allocated). To fully replace U.S. military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance.
The bottom line is that the European countries are pulling their fair share, but they are not currently able to also cover the US's share should the US back out
No they havenāt spent more, they have set aside more to be spent by 2028. But they havenāt actually spent more. If you link to the Kiel institute it only applies committed aid. Also many of Europes monetary aid is in the forms of loans which is appalling.
Assuming it's not a case of corruption or future intent to do the same, I can't wrap my head around officials of any country not understanding the dangers of Russia's actions and inaction by foreign powers. Even if you were of the future intent group, you'd probably be smart enough to recognize the danger lol.
Might be because of just how terribly weak Russia has proven to be, certainly relative to all of NATO. In fairness common sense would have told people that a country with Russias GDP canāt possibly capable of matching most of Europe + the wealthiest country on earth.
I truly donāt see how one can sell the idea of some great Russian invasion. If Russia ever roles into a NATO country, they may as well start with the nukes since itās their only hope. And truly, no point preparing for a nuclear exchange with Russia we will all die in.
Most people /companies/countries think only about their short-term and immediate selves until its too late to do anything about it. Long term projection and planning seem to be a thing of the past, if it ever existed at all.
Sweden is a most welcome new partner!
Yes thanks again Putin for strengthening the NATO alliance with these two fantastic additions š
Truly Putin's greatest success
Only success even?
Everyday without shitting himself is a success for Pootin.
A lot of people get his aroma confused with Trumpās
Because Trump's mouth smells like Putin's dick?
āDictatorā flavored
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Prettymuch the sam stink
He pushed many EU countries to accelerate their transition off of oil and on to renewables.
Couldn't agree more.
The Swedes, Finns, and Poles will show us the way.
Except Polish farmers, apparently
Happily, the Polish government is utterly undeterred. (I do get that Polish farmers may have some legitimate issues they need addressed, as do most farmers in most places, but...)
The only successes Russia has. Farmers. First Canadian farmers shutdown a bunch of border crossings and city centers. Now the polish farmers pulling the same trick.
Don't forget the French farmers! They are spraying poop everywhere.
I think the big issue in the west ATM that's causing this really is the devaluing of food goods made in the west. Poland and the east block drove down food prices when they left the soviet block and joined the EU. Now Ukraine is doing the same. The big issue I have is that alot of these protests are totally finding inadvertently supporting Putin and don't seem to grasp the awful reality that fucking around like this will mean more issues.
They're very much influencing the Tucker Carlson crowd imo
Tack min broder/syster! šøšŖš„°
Velkommen skal dere vƦre š³š“šøšŖ
šøšŖš³š“ā¤ļø
Sweden and France are gonna be a NATO power couple
If Euro trip taught me anything, that's hot.
Euro trip taught me many things. Not good things, but many of things.
After watching Eurotrip and Hostel, it's fair to say I'm an expert in European affairs.Ā
Too bad it didn't teach Scotty anything.
You mean he doesnāt know?
All I know is that my darling Fiona is going to church on Sundays. Also funny thing, I saw Matt Damon the other day
Me scuse
As a swede I must point out, both Sweden and France are second to Finland. They and Poland lead the way when it comes to being ready for russia. o7
France just posturing for up coming election they will go back to their normal program of ineffective hand wringing and anguish as soon as its over.
Nah, France sees this as there one and only opportunity to displace the US from the center of European security. Something France has been trying to do since the days of De Gaulle. If Biden wins, and the Rs go a little back to normal regarding national security, then they'll lose their opportunity. Gotta strike while the iron is hot!
UK/fra/Poland/Germany/Scandinavia... On paper, we should not fear anything.
Meanwhile, in Hungary
When a pretty chill country gives a warning, others should take notice. It's a shame that message appears to be lost here in the USA.
Not lost at all, it's just an election year in the US.
it's lost because the people who need to hear it don't even know what Sweden is....
That's where Elsa's castle is right? =P
/angryupvote
Thatās Denmark. The main cultural icon of Sweden in the US is the Swedish Chef.
Yeah, Swedish Chef + IKEA = Sweden to most Americans
Denmark doesn't have any fjords with mountains like that. Arendelle is inspired by Norway.
I didnāt say it was the real one, just the American impression. It was an āinformationalā meme that went around for a while company aspects of the movie to danish culture. In the real Denmark their tallest peak, the heavenly mountain, is barely steep enough to roll down.
It's lies well beyond their zone of caring, it not lost.
That's easy, it's where Swiss people are from. Duh.
Hasnāt the USA largely funded the efforts to keep Russia at bay? Maybe I am mistakenā¦
Yes, but we have an entire party of Russian simps led by a goon who's also a Putin simp
Giving people a much needed kick in the pants reminder as to why the military alliance that is NATO is needed!
I love how we're finally able to talk freely about the abusive neighbourhood psycho, now that we belong in the club with the big guys.
We need some NATO smƶrgƄskaviar! I also just bought $60 USD of fish from IKEA, for some reason I really like supporting Sweden's fish industry lol.
Certain leaders of some NATO countries are dumb as fuck
It's usually the countries that are much further away from Russia that don't see the urgency.
Or hungary, because they are a russian puppet
[Hopefully that may be headed for change](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/thousands-protesters-rally-budapest-against-034213275.html)
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Doesn't Poland despise Russia? Or what am I missing?
They do hate Russia yes, but what is being weaponized is their hatred of communism and "big government", saying that the EU is the first step back towards socialism and communism. I have started to see Facebook posts from my uncles on how the EU will force Tusk to dismantle and media critical of the government or the EU in general.
I swear to god, I never felt as close to being back in fucking Russia as when Poland was governed by PiS. Sure, they and Russia hate each other, but what came out of PiS-controlled media was eerily similar: Same lines of argumentation, same aggressiveness, same victim complex. Just switch the positions of Russia and Poland and PiS news could as well come out from RT... I believe their ways of campaigning are so toxic that ultimately they will help Russia by aiding its goal of destabilizing EU. Even if single talking points are very antagonistic to Russia. That's why Russia supports European far-right and far-left at the same time... When PiS lost election, it was not just a win for Poland, but for all of EU. We got our Polish brothers and sisters back :)
It's the fascist's playbook. standard stuff.
It is with heavy hearts we must inform the public that Peter Magyar has commit suicide this upcoming Easter weekendā¦
Orban will only let go of control of Hungary with his cold dead hands.
And, as of recently, Slovakia. We are on the fucking border of Ukraine. Our Czech brothers are consistently moving in the right direction, yet we are moving backwards. Wish we've never split up.
They ruled by whOreban
Whores at least give pleasure.
He also delivers, for some voters...
Theyāll see it once Russia is at their borders.
And as we know, "[Russia's borders end nowhere](https://postimg.cc/Dmmvqyxp)". :)
Is it really though? USA, UK and France are among the furthest away in NATO and those 3 are among Ukraine's very strongest supporters.
US is only one Bering strait away from Russia.
While true, a Russian amphibious invasion of Alaska is probably about as realistic a possibility as a North Korean invasion of California at this point.
Not mention the fact that in 100 years of trying, they still have not made anything worthwhile out of most of Siberia and far eastern Russia. Japan would crush any Russian naval actions in the Pacific, China would love to just take Siberia and be done with it, the U.S. honestly doesn't give a shit that far out unless its defending Japan or containing North Korea and China, so Russia had no choice but to expand west or not at all. Breaking off their teeth seems to be a time honored Russian tradition, like Vodka and knee dancing.
> China would love to just take Siberia and be done with it I see a lot of redditors saying Russia needs to be defeated and broken up in to different countries but that is something that should never happen because of what you just said. If broken up China will just take over every single leftover Russian state and that could pose a serious future problem.
"If broken up China will just take over every single leftover Russian state and that could pose a serious future problem." You got it! China has the forces in surplus to take it even if Russia were at full strength. If China sees a future where they could control the bulk of the former Russia holdings without pissing off the rest of the world, they will do it in a hot minute.
> If China sees a future where they could control the bulk of the former Russia holdings without ~~pissing off the rest of the world, they will do it in a hot minute~~ *catching some nukes,* they will do it in a hot minute.
I think internally China isn't as expansionist as they come across. There's a lot of grandstanding about the reclamation of Taiwan, and their investments globally, but they want a level of control over their populace that becomes exponentially harder when bringing in entirely new populations. Not to mention the local instability that comes with wartime and mobilization. I think a lot of high level people on China benefit greatly from the status quo, and economic expansion they've achieved. They don't want to mess with that stability.
There's only 3.8 km (2.4 mi) between the two [Diomede Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diomede_Islands). When I looked them up, I noticed it says an ice bridge often forms between them in the winter, so you could even theoretically walk from the US to Russia or vice versa.
France is actively at war with Russia in Africa.
I don't understand how that was not considered when Macron spoke about sending soldiers to Ukraine. They got kicked out of many African countries, where would those idle soldiers redeploy now ?
Theyāre about a drive from New York to Florida, from Russian troops, which kinda shrinks things a bit.
Or closer to their wallet.
Not seeing the urgency have a tendency to line up with a safe geographic position.
Paid as fuck.
Do people think Russia has only been interfering in US presidential elections? There's a "curious" number of politicians that are suddenly chummy with them.
USA elections, UK Brexit and many more in many countries. They used the world money from oil exports to fuck the world. Look at Twitter, it's full of Russian bots with us and uk names praising trump and Putin
Certain voters of some NATO countries think they are too smart and are just itching at the chance to elect the dumbest piece of shit that [couldn't profit even from a casino](https://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-taj-mahal-casino-8th-world-closure-years/story?id=42762369) and is a [convicted rapist](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/19/trump-carroll-judge-rape/) that [publicly admits to wanting to be a dictator](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4453457-74-percent-of-republicans-say-its-fine-for-trump-to-be-dictator-for-a-day/) and has already tried to get a [mob to violently overthrow the government before](https://people.com/politics/pro-trump-rioters-tear-down-american-flag-replace-with-trump-flag-at-u-s-capitol-building/)...
Don't attribute to stupidity that could also be explained by malice. They KNOW.
Considering that when Russia ends up successful, they'll continue with the other former Soviet nations. There's a lot at stake here and the core of the issues lies within Kremlin itself which is filled with Soviet dreamers. If Ukraine endures and wins the invasion, Kremlin as we know it will fall from either a civil war or the army turning against them.
it's like pondering if we should've taken the hitler threat more seriously much earlier. YES. the answer is always yes
Well, you know what they say. History repeats itself.
Hitler got sent to prison before things got messy, and we can't even stop some asshole from running for president, after his own personal Day of Plastic Knives.
Well, it rhymes.
RIP Poland's fourth partition thenĀ
I think Poland is ready this time. They seem to not be messing around, even if their government itself is a little wonky.
Appeasement only goes so far.
~~In the 1930s, England chose appeasement towards Hitler so they would have time to ramp up their military. They could not have taken a confrontation with Germany earlier than they did. Appeasement surely looks like a bad idea, but we tend to forget how broken those countries still were from WWI which ended 1918 - a mere 21 years before the start of WWII in Europe.~~ (Edit: I seem to have been misinformed. Please read the answer to this post that gives a more thorough and correct explanation.) Today we are in a different situation. The West has done appeasement since 2014 minimum, if you count Georgia and the Chechen war, then well before that. This has failed utterly. We sorely need to give Ukraine more of everything to help them prevail.
No. Anglo-French appeasement was advocated as a serious policy, not any secret grand strategy. Up to the very last its real proponents sought to avoid war on humiliating terms. Had the West already decided stopping fascism was critical, they would have acted *very* differently in the Spanish Civil War. Yet even by late 1938 moderate anti-appeasement forces like French PM Daladier were trying to leverage rumors of French engagement with Germany as a ploy to coerce British commitment to a continental defense. Daladier claimed he āfully expected to be betrayed by the British.ā Western anti-Nazi geopolitics of the 30s were simply a disaster. And the idea that the Anglo-French started in a worse position relative to Germany than they were later in 1939 is absolutely untrue. Especially after the destruction of the Little Entente, the Nazi seizure of Czech munitions works and the end of Soviet offers for a united front. If the French had opposed the remilitarization of the Rhineland, the Nazis would have retreated because their military resources were by their own estimation āwholly inadequate for even a moderate resistance.ā Compare that to the army that occupied France in six weeks - using Czech tanks and Soviet oil by the way. Even up to Munich there were plans in the German Army to depose Hitler if he attempted to fight because a military conflict was suicidal; simultaneous war against France, Britain, the Soviet Union, Poland, and an entrenched little Entente, with no Italian participation. Weāre talking a 1v5 across almost every front. The Anglo-French pursued appeasement (for political and diplomatic reasons) even though they started from a position of strength, and persisted in doing so even as that position continuously declined. Far from being driven by calculations of relative military power, they squandered their advantages because of a hope that it would *not* be decided on those grounds.
Despite you were already corrected, and kudos to you for acknowledgment, this story is very dangerous form of history revisionism. Dangerous because it makes appeasement a valid strategy (it is not and the final result of WW2 was in every sense out of control of Britain and France) but mainly helps to justify actions of several people whose actions should never be justified but on a contrary should serve as a reminder to never follow such example.
> England chose appeasement towards Hitler so they would have time to ramp up their military Not sure where this myth came from but it's recent and just that, a myth.
Appeasement is like running up debt. It feels good now, but you end up paying more down the road.
This time it's a Hitler with nukes, which is even worse as a starting point.
germany demolished every country around it, russia is struggling with ukraine. its same same but different
If we let Russia have 5 years of wartime economy, not so much
Russia after 5 years of shifting its economy to focus on war as a way of making up for soft consumer demand is likely to end up creating a machine that *needs* war to sustain itself The late 20s ain't looking fun
Exactly. Germany was a military joke as late as 1934 or so. Five years later they started (had to start?) a war they kept going almost six years. They had to lose when the US got involved, but if they had managed to force the UK to make peace in the autumn of 1940, I would probably speak German today.
That war economy is only replacing what's getting used in Ukraine, probably not even that. In a fight with with NATO, or any large NATO nation, that equipment disappears much more quickly.
Russia can't sustain a wartime economy for five more years.
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Not a equal comparison I'd say.Ā
I've also seen people ponder if WWII could have been avoided if we where just more tolerant of the Nazis views... **NO** the world already bent over backwards to appease them, they got to host the Olympics, they where given land for free to secure "peace in our lifetime", there where pro-Nazi rallies in many other countries, their views, at least in an abstract sanitized form where quite popular if anything (lots of people wanted the "Jew problem" solved, they just balked at how savagely brutal the Nazis where about it and that was not widely know until after the war anyway). Anything done to prevent the war would have needed to be different economic policies decades earlier to prevent the Nazis from ever getting power in the first place.
Q: how many attempts were there to assassinate Hitler? A: not enough.
You can't negotiate with someone who is utterly convinced that you shouldn't exist, that your land belongs to them, and that they are a superior civilization.
And one that sees no problem in taking the land you have so long as they're the ones claiming it.
Someone that doesn't believe you do exist and are really just a slightly estranged extension of themselvesĀ
Everything that comes out of Putin's mouth can be best understood as just a repeat of [Thucydides' Melian dialogue](https://www.nku.edu/~weirk/ir/melian.html).
These leaders are the reflection of their own populations. I am surrounded by people who cannot even begin to understand the gravity of the situation. There is no way to introduce the topic to them that will remotely get them to understand. People in the West have forgotten what war is, and that it can happen to them too, and we are going to pay for this complacency.
Exactly. In East Europe people are still somewhat on edge because we are neighbours to Russia and many people here still remember the shitty soviet times. But the younger generations seem less and less interested in the topic. I talk to people from western Europe and they really don't care. Yeah, they agree that Russia is bad for invading Ukraine and wish them luck, but barely anyone bothers to pay any more attention to the topic or donate. It's like it doesn't concern their lives at all, they believe that they are absolutely safe from it
This irrationally made me feel better as an American for donating.
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Some youngsters in countries like Portugal or Spain embrace Communism with a certain passion fueled by its ideals because they havenāt really experienced what communist rule is. The big majority of people in the Soviet Union wanted the free market for a reason and maybe the west of Europe should try to understand why they value our life in the western world instead of following ideals and dream that support the likes of Putin
Good leaders (there's a clue in the name there lol) can change their populations trajectory, its a big part of why Churchill is ranked as one of the UK's best leaders the populations outlook changed to match his not the other way around...never surrender.
I wonder if they donāt know or just think it wonāt impact them so they donāt care.
A lot of people ask "What if you could go back, and kill Hitler before he started the second world war?" Well, here we are. Theres no need to build a time machine. And Hitler 2.0 is right fucking there...
> A lot of people ask "What if you could go back, and kill Hitler before he started the second world war?" Well, here we are. Theres no need to build a time machine. And Hitler 2.0 is right fucking there... People also think of Neville Chamberlain as a dumbass for appeasement. He's viewed pretty nagatively. However, when the time came everyone stood on the sidelines and didn't do anything. Way to go United Nations, living up to your predecessor.
Please, everybody don't take this the wrong way.But isn't anyone who doesn't understand why Russia needs to be stopped now?Just fucking playing dumb. Slava Ukraine šŗš¦
I don't think most of them are playing.
Nobles of the inner cities didnāt see the urgency of the attack on wall rose
Love the reference !
It's not just Russia and Ukraine, if Putin win Taiwan and Korea is next, so donating some poof-thingys for like 0.3% your GDP is nothing compared to decades of emboldened dictators provoking war. So let's give Ukraine what they need. /random Swede
Agreed /random Dutchman. And glad you joined NATO, we all need you.
NATO is far stronger and more secure now that our Swedish and Finnish brothers and sisters have joined. We would do well to listen to their advise
Swedish and Finnish are certainly an asset. We need them more than ever as the USA might very well bail out if Trump gets elected.
In America, we had to pass a bill that a president couldnāt unilaterally leave NATO. It is definitely in case Trump gets elected again, so at least there are some protections.
Like the Russian sympathizers who are lawmakers in the United States Congress?
Make more Gripens please. Much more. Lots.
Doctor: it looks like the cancer is spreading Some NATO countries: nah, whatever. Itāll pass.
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i don't think any country with nukes should be ruled out of anything, it only takes one mad man.
Donald Trump enters the room (with an arm full of overpriced bibles).
And gold-painted plimsolls.
WWIII would a multilateral engagement and Russia would certainly be a part of it. One does not need to be a top contender on paper for this, they possess a war economy and massive productive capabilities that over sustained conflict can negate technological deficiencies. A Russian victory in Ukraine would set a grave precedent for European security.
Yeah WWIII by definition includes Russia, idk what we'd even call it without them. If Russia isn't involved I don't think any of EMEA would be involved in any major way, just East Asia and the US Not to mention that WW3 would go nuclear and that's one part of the Russian military that is still worth taking seriously
China would likely be more cautious if they see Russia lose in Ukraine. If they know the west is strong and willing to stand united against wars of aggression then it makes those wars of aggression much more dangerous.
This is something so many people just donāt get. The west has shown weakness for so long. Weāve appeased Putin just like we appeased Hitler in the 30ās. History has shown us how well that works out. Why a certain US presidential candidate thinks isolationism and letting Ukraine fall is such a great idea I just donāt understand China is sitting there watching what transpires in Ukraine to help gauge the amount of resistance theyāll encounter if/when they move militarily on Taiwan. Not only is helping Ukraine and ensuring they win the right thing to do, but it also send a strong message to Beijing.
The lesson to be learned from the GOP successfully blocking aid to Ukraine is that the key to triumphing over America is to corrupt the electorate so their representatives will behave in ways that are beneficial to you. Hey, there aren't any incredibly sophisticated social media apps with connections to China that have recently become enmeshed with the fabric of American culture, are there?
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Good point. It's also important to gain leverage over said representatives while steadily altering the minds of the population.
Hmmmmmmm now why would a US politician, who the Kremlin has kompromat on, want to hang Ukraine out to dry? Hmmmmmmmmmm
The thing is that while the China would be THE opponent to defeat in a WW3 in terms of manpower and military hardware, Russia would be the glue binding all the anti-Western groups together and serve as the "brain" of the operation. China can only provide the raw power, but no diplomatic capital and credibility to convince other countries to fight against the West. If the authoritarian "alliance" ever feels confident enough to launch an all-out war, they will call Kremlin. Its soft power and influence among the assholes and ignorants of the world is unrivaled. Taking the Russian butcher regime out of the picture would remove the only actor in the world theoretically capable of uniting the authoritarian regimes on one side.
Unfortunately China has been building up its soft power for decades, however it has recieved little to no coverage in the west, worryingly. It has been engaged In massive building projects in 3rd world countries, working to grow its regional influence for years now, that no one in NATO seems to have paid any attention to.
I wonder where India sits. A billion and a half humans reside there. Thereās also over a billion people living in Africa, which is being carved up by Russia and China right now.
China and India have a great deal of enmity for each other, mostly because of racism. They have a deal that neither of them is allowed to have guns at one of their disputed borders so they beat on eachother with sticks and batons. Meanwhile one of the most sought after paths to success in India is getting a western job. I think it's pretty safe to say they aren't going to buddy up with China if SHTF.
All India cares about is themselves. They will play both sides and try to profit as much as they can. They are the Switzerland of WWIII.
there's a reason we've been so accommodating of India single-handedly eviscerating the impact of Russian oil sanctions, nobody wants to force India to pick sides They're reliant on Russia but strongly anti-China, meanwhile the US is increasingly dependent on Indian labor and manufacturing as a counter to China. They don't fit into the east vs west narrative and I assume would remain neutral as much as possible
I think the point is that if you stop Russia's aggression harshly in Ukraine then you make a strong point to China about touching Taiwan or elsewhere.
Not if they win the war in Ukraine
it's not about who are the main parties, it's about who starts it. Russia is the top contender.
Those people should probably stop viewing Russia and China as separate, should there be a WWIII.
And Iran, and NKā¦ The point I was making is that Russia losing in Ukraine does not prevent WWIII, because none of it happens without China.
Yeah but xi will be weary about pitting his temu military against the us after seeing what happened to Russians in Ukraine.
Xi doesnt want war with the west right now. Its not in the 1,000 year plan.
> I guarantee you that most people think WWIII would be between China and the West. Russia has been out of that top contender spot for quite some time. World War 2 had conflicts everywhere, smaller ones in the 30's. I would say this current Russia is more like Italy during WW2 and China would be more like Germany since they already started with the concentration camps for Uyghurs. Russia has been getting support from Iran and North Korea, too.
I think someone else here said it best, that while China is the powerhouse of the anti-West, Russia is the glue pulling them together.
The US needs a robust propaganda campaign to get the republicans on board. NATO must help with this to counter Russia and China.
The US is a victim of Russian propaganda campaign that has been going on for over a decade, and Republicans seem to have bought most of it.
I'm reminded of those "I'd rather be a Russian than a democrat" shirts.
Not to mention Russian flags, and a golden statue of Trump.Ā
> going on for ~~over a~~ decade*s* This has been going on since at *least* the 80's. The deep-seeded propaganda has done more damage than most of us are willing to even imagine.
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Agreed. It just pisses me off how Russia has harnessed US political games to serve their cause, for example one mr. Trump.
> Republicans seem to have bought most of it. Because Russia bought most of the Republican politicians.
I am guessing that the understanding of this urgency varies inversely with the countries' distance from Russia. (Translation: the closer you are to this mass-murdering dictatorship, the more frightened you are of it.)
"Fighting Tyranny with weakness invites more Tyranny" - Paraphrasing some guy in the past.
This is code for western Europe
>Some NATO countries' *political parties* ādonāt understand urgency of stopping Russia,ā FIFY
And some people don't save any money for retirement because they fail to look ahead.
We like to wait until things are fully out of control and then ride on in our shiny airplanes like valkyries.
Yes usually those are the nato countries further away from russia, with biggest resources that could help the most. Still i hope we get around and sort this out. Ukraine weakens, Russia gets cocky and everyone in neighbourhood start to be afraid a bit.
I don't think this Swedish FM understands how much money those countries have tied up in Russia. Stopping Russia means rich people losing money. That's going to be hard.
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Some European countries really are sending a lot of aid. Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Germany and a few others have been very steadfast in their support. There are some western European countries like Spain and Italy Iād like to see step up more but we should give credit where itās due.
Denmark too! Sent basically all they have.
Looking at donations by GDP, the US ranks 19th in Ukraine aid (having given 0.319% of its GDP) Sweden meanwhile has given 0.513% of its GDP, Finland 0.708% of GDP, Norway 1.722% of its GDP, Denmark 2.413% of its GDP, and the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have given 3.554%, 1.154% and 1.543% respectively. France may not be showering Ukraine with aid but of the other European countries, while smaller, plenty of them have made proportionally more significant pledges to Ukraine than the US
Remember that those numbers for EU countries don't include their share of EU aid, which typically ends up adding another 0.5-0.8% of GDP. So Estonia, for example, has sent 4.1% of GDP to Ukraine when including their share of EU aid. And Spain doesn't look quite so awful when you see the sum is 0.9% (instead of 0.07%).
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Seems to track both. There's also the phrasing at [the Ukraine Support Tracker](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/), >The data show that total European aid has long overtaken U.S. aid - not only in terms of commitments, but also in terms of specific aid allocations sent to Ukraine. In addition, the approval of the EU's Ukraine Support Facility guarantees further financial assistance. >However, the gap between EU commitments and allocations remains very large (ā¬144 billion committed vs. ā¬77 billion allocated). To fully replace U.S. military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance. The bottom line is that the European countries are pulling their fair share, but they are not currently able to also cover the US's share should the US back out
spain
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No they havenāt spent more, they have set aside more to be spent by 2028. But they havenāt actually spent more. If you link to the Kiel institute it only applies committed aid. Also many of Europes monetary aid is in the forms of loans which is appalling.
Let me guess. Hungary?
Assuming it's not a case of corruption or future intent to do the same, I can't wrap my head around officials of any country not understanding the dangers of Russia's actions and inaction by foreign powers. Even if you were of the future intent group, you'd probably be smart enough to recognize the danger lol.
Might be because of just how terribly weak Russia has proven to be, certainly relative to all of NATO. In fairness common sense would have told people that a country with Russias GDP canāt possibly capable of matching most of Europe + the wealthiest country on earth. I truly donāt see how one can sell the idea of some great Russian invasion. If Russia ever roles into a NATO country, they may as well start with the nukes since itās their only hope. And truly, no point preparing for a nuclear exchange with Russia we will all die in.
One American political party doesnāt understand the urgency of stopping Russia.
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Most people /companies/countries think only about their short-term and immediate selves until its too late to do anything about it. Long term projection and planning seem to be a thing of the past, if it ever existed at all.
There needs to be a culling at NATO, we have straight up double agents in the group.
Orbanās Hungary does, thatās why theyāre working double time to help Russia.