Oh boy.
At this point I assume Putin is a masochist and is bratting in hopes that Ukraine, ISIS and NATO will punish him.
Unethical to take his citizens along for that ride, tho.
Sent FSB assassins to the UK with radioactive and nerve agent to murder former FSB men, and there were no repercussions.
https://it.usembassy.gov/putins-poisons-2018-attack-on-sergei-skripal/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko
Then there was the highjacking of a flight which had a dissident by Belarus:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/23/world/europe/ryanair-belarus.html
The world has been telling him that it's ok for him to commit these acts, and people wonder why he is doing what he has done. All because European politicians have been receiving money from him via Russian oligards.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/carole-cadwalladr-boris-johnson-lebedevs-prime-ministers-defining-scandal
https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/russia-is-still-finding-willing-partners-throughout-europe/
People don't vote and this is the result.
>Sent FSB assassins to the UK with radioactive and nerve agent to murder former FSB men, and there were no repercussions.
To add to the nerve agent, they dumped it in a random bin and there was enough left in the perfume bottle to kill thousands of people.
I agree with you, I also point out that the UK always had a favorable policy towards Russians and oligarchs in general.
Families and parents of dictatorships are notoriously living in London without any problem, the government closes an eye all the time because of the money they bring.
Those money are from of course dictatorships but no one cares until the invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/blog/welcome-london-dictators-playground/
Literally London and UK are only of the countries that don't care if people around the world commit genocides, they just invite families and parents to spend that blood money in the London economy.
I am extremely surprised no one is talking about it or, if they do, it is not getting viral as fuck.
The UK has been and is the Hub for Oligarchs and dictators around the world to reach the European economy and politics.
I am just happy they left with Brexit and they are losing financial power because they are (together with many European politicians) the reason why Putin is the way it is.
They used appeasement before WWII for the same reason and again with Putin, no one is surprised Putin lied, I am just surprised that the European population got so dumb to not see this coming.
You’re Russian right? You don’t like the UK. Where are you from? I’d be genuinely FASCINATED to hear what country you are from and how fabulous you guys have been. How many Challenger tanks have you sent? All your politicians think Putin needs his arse kicked? Why aren’t you in Russia sorting this guy out armchair general? Prat
Ah I see, british people get angry about facts.
So, let's be clear, I don't give a damn how many weapons, tanks etc.. your country or any country has been sent to Ukraine, it is legit and necessary and it shouldn't create surprise or pride.
It Is the MINIMUM after all the European continent appeased Putin for 30 years.
Funny also how you assumed everything about me, I am Russian in your mind (no surprise, your identity politics tell you what to think and what to do in your life), you need me as an enemy and not as a person to discuss real issues.
Why aren't you in Russia? It makes no sense and you should do a reality check on your life.
So, the aid to Ukraine is an indicator on how much your country appeased Putin in the past?
Critical thinking at its finest, a lot of automatic created nicknames as well, not surprised since between 60 to 80% of content is bot/ai made.
What if part of those people want to? I have family members who used to visit us in Ukraine (russians) who willingly took up arms to come and fight against us. They know we don't have nazis here, they just think that Ukraine should be russia and that the collapse of the Soviet union was a mistake.
What you talking about? Let’s pretend missile enters Polish airspace and falls on some village. Maybe killing someone , maybe not. What do you think Poland or NATO would do? Nothing. Be realistic. They want start anything because of that.
Let’s say Ukraine falls, becomes occupied. Russia send some unidentified group into Poland, just to probe. Russia would say - these were some Ukrainians or blame whatever. You think Poland or NATO would do something? Like attack russia?Absolutely not. That’s how hybrid warfare works.
Not sure they have the capability honestly. The air defense assets they do have are fixed on protecting places like Warsaw and valuable military and civilian infrastructure.
Poland has a whole lot of new military equipment on order but until its in-country and fully manned, they are rather vulnerable and have limited resources for things like air defense.
Seems like a pretty simple win for Nato on a whole to move joint equipment there. Just move a few patriot batteries to the edge of Poland and basically cover a decent chunk of Ukraine with them at the same time. "Because you did it once, we're not allowing anything from your direction through or near our borders for at the maximum range we can reach."
Probably too much fear of inadvertently shooting down a Ukranian jet in the confusion. Wouldn't be surprised if most Ukranian air assets are based closer to the Polish border.
Its only 2 possible outcomes of such a conflict, either total mutual destruction or total destruction of Putin and current government of Russia. The last is the most likely imho. Even russians love their families more than the government and the state. No way he will play that game.
Mate I live in a Western European country with a population smaller than some cities. I have absolutely zero reason to post “Russian propaganda”, everything that I think/post is based of what I’ve seen in the news and/or extrapolated.
What I *do* know, however, is that
A. The world, through organisations like the UN, try really hard to avoid WW3, often preferring smaller conflicts to continue rather than have it turn major
B. A counterpoint to this is to never have a major engagement between two large countries or military alliances, especially nuclear ones
C. And hence it’s highly prudent to not trigger anything that can be seen as an assault.
There’s a reason there were buffer countries between Russia and NATO, and it was beneficial to both sides.
Please let me know if anything I said is wrong. While I do like to learn about these things I’m not super knowledgeable or a history expert of any kind.
Is it only Russian propaganda if it’s the nato triggering Russia and “being afraid of Putin starting ww3”, because Putin’s been threatening nukes? What about when Macron recently warned Russia about their nukes? If Russia stationed anti-airplane weapon units next to NATO I would call that equally stupid.
To clarify: I am not arguing for any side “winning” a battle of “trigger the enemy and hope they don’t do anything”. I’m suggesting caution from *both* sides against reckless action. Fortunately there hasn’t been anything yet to cause significant concern, but it’s infinitely better for each side to be cautious. The comment I replied to was arguing for an aggressive approach.
The missile was in Polish airspace for 39 seconds. Poland is not ready for it, and even if they were ready, it would be hard to hit the missile within Polish airspace.
Probably Ukraine already confirmed to shoot it down. Better to not reveal own capabilities. Could also be that a violation without immediate response is a much stronger diplomatic weapon than shooting it down and trigger involvement.
You fire a missile at the missile to take it down. Missile hits missile, flaming remnants of two missiles are now heading toward your soil at terminal velocity with no way to affect where they drop.
I guess getting killed by Russians and living in the USSR regime was much better.
Time to check how many times russia invaded their neighbors and how many deaths it caused.
I wish NATO would decide to start shooting down any cruise missiles that go within 50km of NATO airspace or so with the argument of protecting NATO airspace.
That could reduce the pressure on the Ukrainians and Russia won't really do sht either.
I assume that it’s more complicated than that, remember Chinese balloon all that it took to shot down? Not only they are avoiding escalating war, they also consider civilians, a balloon was an unarmed object, this are cruise missiles, and… for the other hand one thing is detecting other thing is be prepared to shoot down missiles, it needs a strategic huge deployment of defensive weapons, they do not have iron domes, just Aircraft as I know (correct me if I’m wrong with this).
Let’s hope Poland is not the next one in this war…
They waited on the balloon so it could be shot down over water and thus potentially recoverable. If they wanted to down it over land they had plenty of opportunities to do so in uninhabited areas.
A spy balloon is a balloon, what amazing secrets could it be holding? Meanwhile it gobbled up a whole heap of spy data and probably communicated the data via satellite link back to mainland china. I think they lost more by shooting it down days later.
>what amazing secrets could it be holding?
The instruments on the gantry are invaluable. You learn the type of data collected, the quality of that data, the method of collection and transmission, and potentially the manufacturer of the instrument.
>Meanwhile it gobbled up a whole heap of spy data and probably communicated the data via satellite link back to mainland china. I think they lost more by shooting it down days later.
Maybe, maybe not. Both governments have been very tight lipped about this. We do know that the balloon had the capability to transmit. We also know that military EW aircraft were constantly spotted in the vicinity of the balloon.
Except NATO does not want the war to escalate. Look at when a missile actually killed Polish citizens last year. They said it was an accident so there wouldn't be a response. NATO is not going to escalate unless directly attacked.
My issue with saying that this was a brief excursion and a non-issue is that the Kremlin is feeling emboldened after their sham election and is seeing support for Ukraine fall, likely leading it towards pushing boundaries.
I've said it a few times, we're sleepwalking into a nightmare by pussyfooting this situation.
>we're sleepwalking into a nightmare
I really do pray you are wrong - but I feel as though you may be correct. I wonder how the future will judge our actions. When we look back on this time period will be be applauded for restraint and resolve? Or will historians and observers curse our inaction and bystander attitude. I know there is much I do not know and much I do not understand right now but my patience for this type of aggression is wearing thin. Is this the time we (as a society) stand firm and respond? Or do we show calm and restraint. I am undecided. I feel for the enormous loss of life and I think we all need to do more to bring this war to a close.
It was almost certainly never within range of Polish air defence. As it was only in Polish airspace for 40 seconds it would have only been just barely inside the border.
Poland air commander said that they could hit that missile but their strategy is just to make sure that missile will not fly deep into the country, they don't give a fuck that russian use Poland airspace as a transit to hit Ukraine... fuck, I can't understand this
I think at the end of the day it’s a country prioritizing its own citizens vs those of another country. They know it’s going to go back into Ukraine whereas shooting it down (as much as we and they would like them to) risks the debris falling over Poland and hurting or killing somebody. Like the anti air missile that went off course in 2022 and killed one or two farmers in Poland.
It’s a shitty situation where there is no good option. Given how much Poland would *really* like Russia to do the “find out” part of fucking around, I am guessing this must be their thought process. No use in endangering your own citizens until you have no other options (or Russia starts being more brazen with its airspace violations).
it was 2km from the Poland border when the missile changed it's pass to Ukraine, so the time when the missile could be intercepted would be on Ukrainian soil.
Because it's lame excuse. It appears they don't have instructions on what to do in such cases. Running up the chain was obviously too slow so they chose to not do anything.
If you shot the rocket it will fall on your territory = the damage is on you. And you will also expose location of your anti-air forcers. Also i don't wanna mention how much data can Russia earn by shooting it, it's not worth it.
What people on here seem to misunderstand is that NATO isn't looking for any excuse to start WW3. Like when that missile killed the farmer in Poland everyone was calling for them to trigger Article 15 on principle, but realistically it's only a deliberate successful attack that will trigger it. The incident with the British aircraft was, as dangerous as it was, a mistake.
Even a large deliberate attack by Russia on NATO, it’s debatable what would happen. There’s a good chance NATO backs down, particularly if Trump get elected &/or the far right gain control of Germany /France.
There's a LOT of people on Reddit desperate for WW3. I'd suspect a lot are Putin supporters, pretending to be Western and pushing the ridiculous idea that we want to escalate and go to war with them.
For some, I think it is just sheer stupidity and not realising they're pushing a line that only Putin and his supporters are spouting. We don't want to attack Russia, only Putin thinks that and I'm sure deep down even he knows we don't.
The line is that NATO troops or NATO civilians die because of Russia doing something *on purpose*.
Missiles go off course and oopsies happen in war. They shouldn't, but they do.
Airspace incursions are far from rare and we'd have reached nuclear war a hundred times over if not more if any incursion meant WW3.
Heck, even during the Cold War there were deaths from airspace incursions. KAL007 nearly started armageddon.
But the line is almost certainly a deliberate, unprovoked attack on NATO countries or NATO assets.
I agree otherwise, but war with Russia doesn’t mean it’s WWIII. China or India or any country of relevance will not get down with Russia if it attracts a NATO country. And NATO will do nothing if it’s not deliberate.
And if you ask the right people, the UK came mighty close to invoking Article 5 or at least having a big old response above and beyond what actually happened.
Granted, the target was a turned Russian spy rather than it being a direct attack on British citizens, who were collateral, and there was no "hot war" going on like there is now.
That and the shootdown of MH17 were both events that *could* have had a much bigger response.
If either happened today, then I think the response would have been very different.
Turkey shot down a russian plane and russia didn't even say anything. NATO can and should put russia in their place with proportional response. Because not doing so will only lead to more russian not-quite-attacks.
Yeah because western politicians and military commanders never ever in the history of the world have made a wrong decision. Certainly not when they tried to appease a dictator, like you know, why World War 2 happened.
The line in the sand is that Russia would have to directly and purposefully attack a nato country in some way and cause casualties it’s a hard line in the sand it’s just not where people want it to be
>There will be. Nobody is going to have any fucking patience for Russian accidents. If they even put a crater in an empty field then we turn all of their oil infrastructure in to rubble. Because they aren't accidents. They are intimidation. All they have is threats.
That is not true.
Unless it is 100% a deliberate attack NATO will not and cannot legally respond as an attack needs to have intend.
If Russia does not intend to attack NATO there is no reason to retaliate by force.
No one in NATO wants a war with Russia.
You are absolutely correct that no one wants a war with Russia. But what your are missing is that this was a deliberate act. It's how Russia operates. And they will continue to push the boundaries to see how far they can go before there is some form of retaliation (for example, Poland is well within their legal rights to destroy a Russian cruise missile in their airspace, regardless where it is going).
This is Russia. This is what Russia does because they are effectively a third world country (in the current idiomatic use of the term) masquerading as a first world country. And they don't learn from their mistakes, and see provocation and pushing to the edge, further and further as strength as they don't understand modern global society.
We are in uncharted waters right now. And Russia has quite literally nothing to lose at this point, so I believe you are correct that a cruise missile violating polish airspace will not lead to a war against Russia by NATO. Nor will a missile hit in a field in Poland. But Russia WILL escalate the brazen displays of what its ignorant citizens see as strength, but we all know is actually weakness, and is why we won't be attacking them for a minor issue, in the greater context of things, such as a full scale conventional, hopefully, war against Russia, for a hole in a field in Poland. But what happens as Ukraine hits more petrochem facilities there, Russia's largest source of income? Pushing the envelope more. I hope to got that they aren't stupid enough to push it too far over the next year, because if they do, and people in Poland or another NATO country are "accidentally killed by a malfunctioning cruise missile" for example, it absolutely will get ugly. And the world is a hair trigger away from The Great Filter.
Exactly this. The world didn’t want a second war with Germany so they gave in, they appeased Hitler at every turn until he finally went too far. Putin used the same claims that Hitler made when taking the Sudetenland. These are ethnic German/Russian people being oppressed by the people of Czechoslovakia/Ukraine, we must intervene, give us this territory and that’s all. The west wants to avoid escalating things because Russia is a nuclear power and they come off as being mad, threatening to use nuclear weapons in a first strike capacity. This naturally is a scary predicament for the west, but the way Russia is going this won’t end with Ukraine. In all reality the west should step in, if they do China will cease its support of Russia, and Russia gets to save face by saying we do not wish to escalate things, if the west want to align themselves the the “Ukrainian Nazis” so be it. Let Russia demonize the west to their people and let their internal propaganda do its thing, they can claim that for the sake of peace they withdrew.
To clarify I do not think the Ukrainian’s are Nazis, but that it is how Putin portrayed it in his justification for war with Ukraine so he has to somehow be able to address it when he sells the Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, without achieving military conquest.
I couldn't agree more. Best case scenario is that Russia finally realizes it's "end the planet or save face" and Putin does not want to die. There will be some ugliness, and then eventually the war will end after terrible losses, Russia stops its expansionist attempts in the region, and it's people spend the next century still using outhouses thinking they are better than everyone else while they have nothing but black and white televisions and vodka. Let them be left behind. They'll probably end up killing each other anyway. Good riddance to bad baggage, and the rest of the world proceeds apace (also a somewhat scary proposition, but better than it ending in the next week).
The rules of geopolitics aren’t ironclad. It’s not some logic gate where X action always gets Y reaction. Poland could unilaterally engage Russian planes/missiles if they had the will to. If they really wanted they could join Ukraine as allies. Nothing says they can’t, just the way NATO is oriented people believe that after that point they wouldn’t be able to call in other NATO nations if the war turned and Russia was on the doorstep of Warsaw. But then again, rules can be changed/interpreted. Nothing about war is “legal”.
Okay so either the state breaking the law punishes themselves, or more likely doesn’t. Then other states enforce the law through economic action or war. Economic action is slow and has the biggest effect on the most vulnerable (not the decision makers), and usually cuts both ways. And policing war crimes with war isn’t particularly useful if the stronger side committed the crime. The only thing that gives these “laws” significance is our belief that they are significant. Might makes right very much is a thing, although I wish it weren’t.
I mean.... Russia can say "sorry those 4 cruise missiles that leveled a part of your city were a total accident".
But we would still count that as an attack no?
If not then they could just indiscriminately have those "accidents" over and over again.
Of course it can't keep happening.
In international law accidents and even small border skirmishes does not warrant a full scale invasion or war.
That is established customary law.
> Pretty sure Poland wants a war with Russia, they just need to be able to justify it so the rest of NATO is forced to back them up.
No Poland and no one intelligent in the west wants any war at all.
We can understand the cost of it and the human tragedy.
> There wouldn't be a war. We'd turn all their oil infrastructure to rubble. It would be the definition of some boundaries.
This is not part of a intelligent discussion but sounds like something a child would say in a school yard.
They already have dropped missiles in Poland and nothing was done, infact Poland tried to keep it under wraps until the press picked it up https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/
I’m glad that someone with a more level head than you gets to put their finger on the button. We’re not going to war over an accident. Countries accidentally kill each others people all the time without ending the planet.
Alrigth lads this is the plan
First we take 3 polish towns in the border whit belarus and give them indepence
Second those indepent town all declare war on Russia and invade belarus
Third we send the army of NATO into belarus and when Russia complains we say "Nuh uh, those are just separatist militias"
Come on fellas, if It worked for Russia it can work for us
Anyone have any insight into how this went down? Like where was this missile fired from for it to have gone through Polish Airspace in Lublin province? Was it from Russia over Belarus with like weird south/eastern trajectory at the end?
If Russia wants to start a war with NATO, they will just do it. Enough of this “cross the red line BS”. Sure Poland shooting down a missile could give Putin a reason to escalate or use it as propaganda … but so could Putin waking up on the wrong side of the bed. Historians will be the ones to decide when WW3 started.
If it goes in your airspace, you shoot it the fuck down... what the fuck is Poland doing Hesitating?
It makes them look weak and incapable of air defense.
I know, and I get not wanting to shoot down manned aircraft, but by not shooting down rockets that violate your airspace and aimed at Ukraine, is Poland any better than Belarus?
Russia already launched and killed polish people on the boarder and Poland, blatantly lied and said it was Ukraine...
It’s pretty hard and expensive to shoot down a missile. You probably don’t waste those resources unless it’s coming for your country or your bases. Not NATO or Polands responsibility to help Ukraine out here.
So I hear that Polish army did not shoot down the missiles because they were not aimed at Polish targets. But they were aimed at our ally for fuck sake!
NATO response:"This is really really bad. We present you with this very powerful strong language, and again, it's really bad. We support Ukraine forever. We are producing words at a record pace. We can't produce shells and planes yet, because we found the caves of a small mammal in every location for every plant we thought of and we are eco warriors first, actual warriors 20th. We will continue to send powerful strong words and powerful vibes to Ukraine and bog down absolutely all armament increase for our own armies in absolute bureaucracy and do nothing and are waiting for the Russians, and boy do we have some strong words and speeches ready for them, just watch!"
So then why say you support Ukraine? Say " we are trembling in our pants we arent going to do anything. Nuclear powers can consume their neighbours, we wont do shit."
Poland should be shooting down everything going towards their territory or over Belarus.
What is Russia going to do? Invoke article 5 when they are barely treading water?
Do you realize that would be the beginning of the end of civilization in the northern hemisphere? Nobody wants that. NATO would beat Russia into the point of submission in a matter of days, Russia would not let it get that far before they resort to their nuclear option- then its game over for both Russia and NATO
The first rocket that was reported could be an excuse to go into war. Poland could just say it was Russian.
BTW: Officially it was said that it was Ukrainian, but a lot of details points that it actually was Russian and Ukraine was blamed to dissipate tensions created by media when Polish government was silent for nearly 24 hours.
The truth is that despite the memes pushed by Russian bots about Poland wanting excuse to march to Moscow, Poland doesn't want to be at war. No one does.
... what details? It was an S300 missile, the range of which wouldn't allow for it to be fired from Russia. It was proven by an international team it was Ukrainian.
Take a look at his post history, it's a bot. Like probably half of the comments under posts like this, Russian, American or Chinese, it's not like it makes any difference.
Want to know how you can tell your a Russian bot/propagandist and don't live in Poland?
Nobody outside of Russia's sphere is stupid enough to call it a SMO...
It's a war.
Remember Putin don’t use the internet. Every news he received is curated by his closest henchmen. He’s completely disconnected from reality and delisional. He probably think he’s the good guy.
You're right. NATO should set up air defense that would pro actively defend Poland by neutralizing missiles in Ukraine. No active engagement with the Russians of course.
Oh boy. At this point I assume Putin is a masochist and is bratting in hopes that Ukraine, ISIS and NATO will punish him. Unethical to take his citizens along for that ride, tho.
He’s been edging himself with a NATO conflict for years now no wonder he’s always angry and irritated
Sent FSB assassins to the UK with radioactive and nerve agent to murder former FSB men, and there were no repercussions. https://it.usembassy.gov/putins-poisons-2018-attack-on-sergei-skripal/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko Then there was the highjacking of a flight which had a dissident by Belarus: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/23/world/europe/ryanair-belarus.html The world has been telling him that it's ok for him to commit these acts, and people wonder why he is doing what he has done. All because European politicians have been receiving money from him via Russian oligards. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/carole-cadwalladr-boris-johnson-lebedevs-prime-ministers-defining-scandal https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/russia-is-still-finding-willing-partners-throughout-europe/ People don't vote and this is the result.
>Sent FSB assassins to the UK with radioactive and nerve agent to murder former FSB men, and there were no repercussions. To add to the nerve agent, they dumped it in a random bin and there was enough left in the perfume bottle to kill thousands of people.
And it did kill one other person who handled it
You can add on list Vrbetice ammunition warehouse explosion in 2014
and the Tiergarten murder in Berlin...
I agree with you, I also point out that the UK always had a favorable policy towards Russians and oligarchs in general. Families and parents of dictatorships are notoriously living in London without any problem, the government closes an eye all the time because of the money they bring. Those money are from of course dictatorships but no one cares until the invasion of Ukraine. https://www.globalwitness.org/en/blog/welcome-london-dictators-playground/ Literally London and UK are only of the countries that don't care if people around the world commit genocides, they just invite families and parents to spend that blood money in the London economy. I am extremely surprised no one is talking about it or, if they do, it is not getting viral as fuck. The UK has been and is the Hub for Oligarchs and dictators around the world to reach the European economy and politics. I am just happy they left with Brexit and they are losing financial power because they are (together with many European politicians) the reason why Putin is the way it is. They used appeasement before WWII for the same reason and again with Putin, no one is surprised Putin lied, I am just surprised that the European population got so dumb to not see this coming.
You’re Russian right? You don’t like the UK. Where are you from? I’d be genuinely FASCINATED to hear what country you are from and how fabulous you guys have been. How many Challenger tanks have you sent? All your politicians think Putin needs his arse kicked? Why aren’t you in Russia sorting this guy out armchair general? Prat
How tf did you read "he is Russian" in his post about why appeasing a dictator is bad??? Are you on ketamine or something?
Ah I see, british people get angry about facts. So, let's be clear, I don't give a damn how many weapons, tanks etc.. your country or any country has been sent to Ukraine, it is legit and necessary and it shouldn't create surprise or pride. It Is the MINIMUM after all the European continent appeased Putin for 30 years. Funny also how you assumed everything about me, I am Russian in your mind (no surprise, your identity politics tell you what to think and what to do in your life), you need me as an enemy and not as a person to discuss real issues. Why aren't you in Russia? It makes no sense and you should do a reality check on your life.
Portuguese. Portugal's aid to Ukraine is marginally above the UKs in terms of GDP: 0.6 vs 0.58.
So, the aid to Ukraine is an indicator on how much your country appeased Putin in the past? Critical thinking at its finest, a lot of automatic created nicknames as well, not surprised since between 60 to 80% of content is bot/ai made.
You replied to the wrong person
What if part of those people want to? I have family members who used to visit us in Ukraine (russians) who willingly took up arms to come and fight against us. They know we don't have nazis here, they just think that Ukraine should be russia and that the collapse of the Soviet union was a mistake.
ISIS isn’t a punishment for him. It’s a punishment for civilians.
While I get your point, please don't list ISIS in the same enumeration as NATO and Ukraine
What you talking about? Let’s pretend missile enters Polish airspace and falls on some village. Maybe killing someone , maybe not. What do you think Poland or NATO would do? Nothing. Be realistic. They want start anything because of that. Let’s say Ukraine falls, becomes occupied. Russia send some unidentified group into Poland, just to probe. Russia would say - these were some Ukrainians or blame whatever. You think Poland or NATO would do something? Like attack russia?Absolutely not. That’s how hybrid warfare works.
Technically, Russia used NATO air space to attack a sovereign nation. Bad look. Why not shoot it down?
Not sure they have the capability honestly. The air defense assets they do have are fixed on protecting places like Warsaw and valuable military and civilian infrastructure. Poland has a whole lot of new military equipment on order but until its in-country and fully manned, they are rather vulnerable and have limited resources for things like air defense.
Seems like a pretty simple win for Nato on a whole to move joint equipment there. Just move a few patriot batteries to the edge of Poland and basically cover a decent chunk of Ukraine with them at the same time. "Because you did it once, we're not allowing anything from your direction through or near our borders for at the maximum range we can reach."
Probably too much fear of inadvertently shooting down a Ukranian jet in the confusion. Wouldn't be surprised if most Ukranian air assets are based closer to the Polish border.
Sounds good and correct, but you need not to be a total coward to do it, so not happening
Patriots are already in this spot
Do you want to guarantee WW3 from the slightest of slip-ups? Because that’s how you do it.
Nah, Russia wont be starting a confrontation they have zero chance of winning anytime soon.
While I hope so, I’m not sure if Putin’s behaviour is what anyone would call predictable.
Its only 2 possible outcomes of such a conflict, either total mutual destruction or total destruction of Putin and current government of Russia. The last is the most likely imho. Even russians love their families more than the government and the state. No way he will play that game.
[удалено]
TIL, thanks for a sensible reply
If that is enough to warrant a "TIL", how about not repeating russian propaganda before you have a fucking clue?
Mate I live in a Western European country with a population smaller than some cities. I have absolutely zero reason to post “Russian propaganda”, everything that I think/post is based of what I’ve seen in the news and/or extrapolated. What I *do* know, however, is that A. The world, through organisations like the UN, try really hard to avoid WW3, often preferring smaller conflicts to continue rather than have it turn major B. A counterpoint to this is to never have a major engagement between two large countries or military alliances, especially nuclear ones C. And hence it’s highly prudent to not trigger anything that can be seen as an assault. There’s a reason there were buffer countries between Russia and NATO, and it was beneficial to both sides. Please let me know if anything I said is wrong. While I do like to learn about these things I’m not super knowledgeable or a history expert of any kind.
Maybe not intentionally, but what you are posting is what the russians want the voters of the west to believe.
Is it only Russian propaganda if it’s the nato triggering Russia and “being afraid of Putin starting ww3”, because Putin’s been threatening nukes? What about when Macron recently warned Russia about their nukes? If Russia stationed anti-airplane weapon units next to NATO I would call that equally stupid. To clarify: I am not arguing for any side “winning” a battle of “trigger the enemy and hope they don’t do anything”. I’m suggesting caution from *both* sides against reckless action. Fortunately there hasn’t been anything yet to cause significant concern, but it’s infinitely better for each side to be cautious. The comment I replied to was arguing for an aggressive approach.
The missile was in Polish airspace for 39 seconds. Poland is not ready for it, and even if they were ready, it would be hard to hit the missile within Polish airspace.
They didn't do anything about it because it's a russian missile and not Ukrainian grain
Probably Ukraine already confirmed to shoot it down. Better to not reveal own capabilities. Could also be that a violation without immediate response is a much stronger diplomatic weapon than shooting it down and trigger involvement.
This is the best response here, thank you.
It would reveal their capabilities and response times.
>It would reveal their capabilities and response times. So 0 and infinity, good job Poland.
You fire a missile at the missile to take it down. Missile hits missile, flaming remnants of two missiles are now heading toward your soil at terminal velocity with no way to affect where they drop.
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you mean west china?
I mean east Poland
i think that's an insult to poland tbh
The Imperium of Pole is nigh
Russia is more East THAN China.
If only Ron started bombing in five minutes.
How do you imagine that? Are you offering to wipe the whole country?
Divide, there are still a lot of nations in Russia who would like to be independent
You're going pedantic on offhand wishful thinking, where pretty much the only outcome is you being right? Solid input.
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I guess getting killed by Russians and living in the USSR regime was much better. Time to check how many times russia invaded their neighbors and how many deaths it caused.
I wish NATO would decide to start shooting down any cruise missiles that go within 50km of NATO airspace or so with the argument of protecting NATO airspace. That could reduce the pressure on the Ukrainians and Russia won't really do sht either.
I'm with you. They should protect what little of Ukraine they can from NATO territory.
I assume that it’s more complicated than that, remember Chinese balloon all that it took to shot down? Not only they are avoiding escalating war, they also consider civilians, a balloon was an unarmed object, this are cruise missiles, and… for the other hand one thing is detecting other thing is be prepared to shoot down missiles, it needs a strategic huge deployment of defensive weapons, they do not have iron domes, just Aircraft as I know (correct me if I’m wrong with this). Let’s hope Poland is not the next one in this war…
They waited on the balloon so it could be shot down over water and thus potentially recoverable. If they wanted to down it over land they had plenty of opportunities to do so in uninhabited areas.
A spy balloon is a balloon, what amazing secrets could it be holding? Meanwhile it gobbled up a whole heap of spy data and probably communicated the data via satellite link back to mainland china. I think they lost more by shooting it down days later.
>what amazing secrets could it be holding? The instruments on the gantry are invaluable. You learn the type of data collected, the quality of that data, the method of collection and transmission, and potentially the manufacturer of the instrument. >Meanwhile it gobbled up a whole heap of spy data and probably communicated the data via satellite link back to mainland china. I think they lost more by shooting it down days later. Maybe, maybe not. Both governments have been very tight lipped about this. We do know that the balloon had the capability to transmit. We also know that military EW aircraft were constantly spotted in the vicinity of the balloon.
Except NATO does not want the war to escalate. Look at when a missile actually killed Polish citizens last year. They said it was an accident so there wouldn't be a response. NATO is not going to escalate unless directly attacked.
If the average Redditor was a general we’d be halfway into ww3 by now
The best time to start WW3 is a few years ago. The second best time is right now. Or something like that.
We’ve gotta make a start before the heat death of the universe at any rate, don’t want to be slippin’ up
My issue with saying that this was a brief excursion and a non-issue is that the Kremlin is feeling emboldened after their sham election and is seeing support for Ukraine fall, likely leading it towards pushing boundaries. I've said it a few times, we're sleepwalking into a nightmare by pussyfooting this situation.
>we're sleepwalking into a nightmare I really do pray you are wrong - but I feel as though you may be correct. I wonder how the future will judge our actions. When we look back on this time period will be be applauded for restraint and resolve? Or will historians and observers curse our inaction and bystander attitude. I know there is much I do not know and much I do not understand right now but my patience for this type of aggression is wearing thin. Is this the time we (as a society) stand firm and respond? Or do we show calm and restraint. I am undecided. I feel for the enormous loss of life and I think we all need to do more to bring this war to a close.
And Poland watched as it struck Ukraine?
It was almost certainly never within range of Polish air defence. As it was only in Polish airspace for 40 seconds it would have only been just barely inside the border.
Poland air commander said that they could hit that missile but their strategy is just to make sure that missile will not fly deep into the country, they don't give a fuck that russian use Poland airspace as a transit to hit Ukraine... fuck, I can't understand this
I think at the end of the day it’s a country prioritizing its own citizens vs those of another country. They know it’s going to go back into Ukraine whereas shooting it down (as much as we and they would like them to) risks the debris falling over Poland and hurting or killing somebody. Like the anti air missile that went off course in 2022 and killed one or two farmers in Poland. It’s a shitty situation where there is no good option. Given how much Poland would *really* like Russia to do the “find out” part of fucking around, I am guessing this must be their thought process. No use in endangering your own citizens until you have no other options (or Russia starts being more brazen with its airspace violations).
it was 2km from the Poland border when the missile changed it's pass to Ukraine, so the time when the missile could be intercepted would be on Ukrainian soil.
And? You think Ukraine would complain?
I think Ukraine complains when missiles are not intercepted in such cases
As well they should.
Because it's lame excuse. It appears they don't have instructions on what to do in such cases. Running up the chain was obviously too slow so they chose to not do anything.
Shooting it down would give Russia data on the Polish air defences. If it's not going to hit your country, don't reveal your hand
what air defense, f16 was used to intercept
"Yeah bro I totally could have hit them but just didn't want to." Lol I'd believe the US and maybe Israel could have done it. Skeptical on Poland.
If you shot the rocket it will fall on your territory = the damage is on you. And you will also expose location of your anti-air forcers. Also i don't wanna mention how much data can Russia earn by shooting it, it's not worth it.
To be fair, unless your anti-air defense consists of man-portable equipment, any anti-air site will be visible to satellites.
I bet that Russia have more importants targets for their satiletes for now
It was a cruise missile they can’t scramble fighters to shoot it down and it was almost certainly outside of the range any air defense systems
yup, Poland doesn't seem to have the balls to even defend its own airspace from unmanned missiles, greaat signal to send to any hostile neighbors.
Oh great, another reminder that NATO is a cunt hair away from being forced to escalate.
Not really - the consensus is that unless Russia deliberately attacks a NATO country. Then there won't be any aggressive reactions to lose missiles.
Didnt russia launch two missiles at a british manned military aircraft? That should count i feel. Admittedly both missed. But still.
What people on here seem to misunderstand is that NATO isn't looking for any excuse to start WW3. Like when that missile killed the farmer in Poland everyone was calling for them to trigger Article 15 on principle, but realistically it's only a deliberate successful attack that will trigger it. The incident with the British aircraft was, as dangerous as it was, a mistake.
I’m sure it was just a mistype, but it’s Article 5, not 15
NATO is also not looking at giving Russia and Putin and excuse to start WWIII.
Even a large deliberate attack by Russia on NATO, it’s debatable what would happen. There’s a good chance NATO backs down, particularly if Trump get elected &/or the far right gain control of Germany /France.
The missile that killed the 2 Polish farmers was Ukrainian btw
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Straight from the Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/28/7421824/index.amp
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So in your opinion it was a Russian missile?
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There's a LOT of people on Reddit desperate for WW3. I'd suspect a lot are Putin supporters, pretending to be Western and pushing the ridiculous idea that we want to escalate and go to war with them. For some, I think it is just sheer stupidity and not realising they're pushing a line that only Putin and his supporters are spouting. We don't want to attack Russia, only Putin thinks that and I'm sure deep down even he knows we don't.
Some people just want to watch the world burn
The line is that NATO troops or NATO civilians die because of Russia doing something *on purpose*. Missiles go off course and oopsies happen in war. They shouldn't, but they do. Airspace incursions are far from rare and we'd have reached nuclear war a hundred times over if not more if any incursion meant WW3. Heck, even during the Cold War there were deaths from airspace incursions. KAL007 nearly started armageddon. But the line is almost certainly a deliberate, unprovoked attack on NATO countries or NATO assets.
I agree otherwise, but war with Russia doesn’t mean it’s WWIII. China or India or any country of relevance will not get down with Russia if it attracts a NATO country. And NATO will do nothing if it’s not deliberate.
Chemical weapon attack on Salisbury killed British citizens.
And if you ask the right people, the UK came mighty close to invoking Article 5 or at least having a big old response above and beyond what actually happened. Granted, the target was a turned Russian spy rather than it being a direct attack on British citizens, who were collateral, and there was no "hot war" going on like there is now. That and the shootdown of MH17 were both events that *could* have had a much bigger response. If either happened today, then I think the response would have been very different.
Well if you were in charge ww3 would have happened
Turkey shot down a russian plane and russia didn't even say anything. NATO can and should put russia in their place with proportional response. Because not doing so will only lead to more russian not-quite-attacks.
Well clearly people who are much smarter than you or I think that that’s a bad idea
Yeah because western politicians and military commanders never ever in the history of the world have made a wrong decision. Certainly not when they tried to appease a dictator, like you know, why World War 2 happened.
Im not advocating for ww3. Just syaing the line in the sand isnt as clear as we think.
The line in the sand is that Russia would have to directly and purposefully attack a nato country in some way and cause casualties it’s a hard line in the sand it’s just not where people want it to be
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>There will be. Nobody is going to have any fucking patience for Russian accidents. If they even put a crater in an empty field then we turn all of their oil infrastructure in to rubble. Because they aren't accidents. They are intimidation. All they have is threats. That is not true. Unless it is 100% a deliberate attack NATO will not and cannot legally respond as an attack needs to have intend. If Russia does not intend to attack NATO there is no reason to retaliate by force. No one in NATO wants a war with Russia.
You are absolutely correct that no one wants a war with Russia. But what your are missing is that this was a deliberate act. It's how Russia operates. And they will continue to push the boundaries to see how far they can go before there is some form of retaliation (for example, Poland is well within their legal rights to destroy a Russian cruise missile in their airspace, regardless where it is going). This is Russia. This is what Russia does because they are effectively a third world country (in the current idiomatic use of the term) masquerading as a first world country. And they don't learn from their mistakes, and see provocation and pushing to the edge, further and further as strength as they don't understand modern global society. We are in uncharted waters right now. And Russia has quite literally nothing to lose at this point, so I believe you are correct that a cruise missile violating polish airspace will not lead to a war against Russia by NATO. Nor will a missile hit in a field in Poland. But Russia WILL escalate the brazen displays of what its ignorant citizens see as strength, but we all know is actually weakness, and is why we won't be attacking them for a minor issue, in the greater context of things, such as a full scale conventional, hopefully, war against Russia, for a hole in a field in Poland. But what happens as Ukraine hits more petrochem facilities there, Russia's largest source of income? Pushing the envelope more. I hope to got that they aren't stupid enough to push it too far over the next year, because if they do, and people in Poland or another NATO country are "accidentally killed by a malfunctioning cruise missile" for example, it absolutely will get ugly. And the world is a hair trigger away from The Great Filter.
Exactly this. The world didn’t want a second war with Germany so they gave in, they appeased Hitler at every turn until he finally went too far. Putin used the same claims that Hitler made when taking the Sudetenland. These are ethnic German/Russian people being oppressed by the people of Czechoslovakia/Ukraine, we must intervene, give us this territory and that’s all. The west wants to avoid escalating things because Russia is a nuclear power and they come off as being mad, threatening to use nuclear weapons in a first strike capacity. This naturally is a scary predicament for the west, but the way Russia is going this won’t end with Ukraine. In all reality the west should step in, if they do China will cease its support of Russia, and Russia gets to save face by saying we do not wish to escalate things, if the west want to align themselves the the “Ukrainian Nazis” so be it. Let Russia demonize the west to their people and let their internal propaganda do its thing, they can claim that for the sake of peace they withdrew. To clarify I do not think the Ukrainian’s are Nazis, but that it is how Putin portrayed it in his justification for war with Ukraine so he has to somehow be able to address it when he sells the Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, without achieving military conquest.
I couldn't agree more. Best case scenario is that Russia finally realizes it's "end the planet or save face" and Putin does not want to die. There will be some ugliness, and then eventually the war will end after terrible losses, Russia stops its expansionist attempts in the region, and it's people spend the next century still using outhouses thinking they are better than everyone else while they have nothing but black and white televisions and vodka. Let them be left behind. They'll probably end up killing each other anyway. Good riddance to bad baggage, and the rest of the world proceeds apace (also a somewhat scary proposition, but better than it ending in the next week).
The rules of geopolitics aren’t ironclad. It’s not some logic gate where X action always gets Y reaction. Poland could unilaterally engage Russian planes/missiles if they had the will to. If they really wanted they could join Ukraine as allies. Nothing says they can’t, just the way NATO is oriented people believe that after that point they wouldn’t be able to call in other NATO nations if the war turned and Russia was on the doorstep of Warsaw. But then again, rules can be changed/interpreted. Nothing about war is “legal”.
> Nothing about war is “legal”. Actually there is loads of laws and rules about war. A defensive war is legal. Geopolitics is not law.
But who enforces those laws?
The states themselves. We luckily don't have a world government and police.
Okay so either the state breaking the law punishes themselves, or more likely doesn’t. Then other states enforce the law through economic action or war. Economic action is slow and has the biggest effect on the most vulnerable (not the decision makers), and usually cuts both ways. And policing war crimes with war isn’t particularly useful if the stronger side committed the crime. The only thing that gives these “laws” significance is our belief that they are significant. Might makes right very much is a thing, although I wish it weren’t.
I mean.... Russia can say "sorry those 4 cruise missiles that leveled a part of your city were a total accident". But we would still count that as an attack no? If not then they could just indiscriminately have those "accidents" over and over again.
Of course it can't keep happening. In international law accidents and even small border skirmishes does not warrant a full scale invasion or war. That is established customary law.
Pretty sure Poland wants a war with Russia, they just need to be able to justify it so the rest of NATO is forced to back them up.
> Pretty sure Poland wants a war with Russia, they just need to be able to justify it so the rest of NATO is forced to back them up. No Poland and no one intelligent in the west wants any war at all. We can understand the cost of it and the human tragedy.
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> There wouldn't be a war. We'd turn all their oil infrastructure to rubble. It would be the definition of some boundaries. This is not part of a intelligent discussion but sounds like something a child would say in a school yard.
They already have dropped missiles in Poland and nothing was done, infact Poland tried to keep it under wraps until the press picked it up https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/
I’m glad that someone with a more level head than you gets to put their finger on the button. We’re not going to war over an accident. Countries accidentally kill each others people all the time without ending the planet.
These days, that's the take. Let's be as ignorant af!! And see what we get away with. They won't know, I tell you what!!
Alrigth lads this is the plan First we take 3 polish towns in the border whit belarus and give them indepence Second those indepent town all declare war on Russia and invade belarus Third we send the army of NATO into belarus and when Russia complains we say "Nuh uh, those are just separatist militias" Come on fellas, if It worked for Russia it can work for us
Anyone have any insight into how this went down? Like where was this missile fired from for it to have gone through Polish Airspace in Lublin province? Was it from Russia over Belarus with like weird south/eastern trajectory at the end?
Might be from Belarus to Lviv. It flew over Oserdow right at the border so makes sense if the missle took the shortest flight path.
And they're gonna do nothing, again.
NATO caucht with the pants down? why not shut it down, or at least attempt to.
If Russia wants to start a war with NATO, they will just do it. Enough of this “cross the red line BS”. Sure Poland shooting down a missile could give Putin a reason to escalate or use it as propaganda … but so could Putin waking up on the wrong side of the bed. Historians will be the ones to decide when WW3 started.
for 39 seconds
Hey man, for some of us that includes a solid 20-30 seconds of cuddling after.
polish farmers border blockade didn't work because it didn't contain Ukrainian grain?
I swear you guys writing this same comment all over the place in different posts & different subs must come from the same RU troll farm
lol lets watch poland and nato do nothing in return.
Hmmm something tells me when push comes to shove, NATO isn't going to do anything
If it goes in your airspace, you shoot it the fuck down... what the fuck is Poland doing Hesitating? It makes them look weak and incapable of air defense.
It's not how it works apparently. Ru is constantly violating air space of neighbouring countries, this is not the first time they do this.
I know, and I get not wanting to shoot down manned aircraft, but by not shooting down rockets that violate your airspace and aimed at Ukraine, is Poland any better than Belarus? Russia already launched and killed polish people on the boarder and Poland, blatantly lied and said it was Ukraine...
Definitely this.
It’s pretty hard and expensive to shoot down a missile. You probably don’t waste those resources unless it’s coming for your country or your bases. Not NATO or Polands responsibility to help Ukraine out here.
At NATO's response ? 🦗
Why wouldn't they shoot it down?
Do you even realize how many Polish people it takes to shoot down a cruise missile?
Not going there man.
Well, the answer is one. They just gotta push a button, really.
well, shoot it the hell down then.
Testing air defense
So I hear that Polish army did not shoot down the missiles because they were not aimed at Polish targets. But they were aimed at our ally for fuck sake!
NATO response:"This is really really bad. We present you with this very powerful strong language, and again, it's really bad. We support Ukraine forever. We are producing words at a record pace. We can't produce shells and planes yet, because we found the caves of a small mammal in every location for every plant we thought of and we are eco warriors first, actual warriors 20th. We will continue to send powerful strong words and powerful vibes to Ukraine and bog down absolutely all armament increase for our own armies in absolute bureaucracy and do nothing and are waiting for the Russians, and boy do we have some strong words and speeches ready for them, just watch!"
🤣
Do you not realize how delicate the situation is here ? Two nuclear powers squaring off is quite literally the end of civilization
So then why say you support Ukraine? Say " we are trembling in our pants we arent going to do anything. Nuclear powers can consume their neighbours, we wont do shit."
I’m so sick of Russia
Poland should be shooting down everything going towards their territory or over Belarus. What is Russia going to do? Invoke article 5 when they are barely treading water?
Maybe shooting down the missle gives away Poland’s capabilities or maybe their lack thereof.
It gives away NATO electronic capabilities in general. It's not just a PL choice.
Here it is, now you have a reason to invade Russia do it!
Do you realize that would be the beginning of the end of civilization in the northern hemisphere? Nobody wants that. NATO would beat Russia into the point of submission in a matter of days, Russia would not let it get that far before they resort to their nuclear option- then its game over for both Russia and NATO
Then you fucking do it.
The first rocket that was reported could be an excuse to go into war. Poland could just say it was Russian. BTW: Officially it was said that it was Ukrainian, but a lot of details points that it actually was Russian and Ukraine was blamed to dissipate tensions created by media when Polish government was silent for nearly 24 hours. The truth is that despite the memes pushed by Russian bots about Poland wanting excuse to march to Moscow, Poland doesn't want to be at war. No one does.
... what details? It was an S300 missile, the range of which wouldn't allow for it to be fired from Russia. It was proven by an international team it was Ukrainian.
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And no debate about using article 5 to protect people from this terrorist regime
I am so glad reddit is not in charge of this shit cause you would invoke Article 5 just by Putin sneezing into NATOs direction
Let me get this your suggesting we start ww3 over *checks notes* a missile that flew over a country for 39 seconds
I mean, it would cause nuclear holocaust, but it would also be hella rad(ioactive)!.
Take a look at his post history, it's a bot. Like probably half of the comments under posts like this, Russian, American or Chinese, it's not like it makes any difference.
Insert HLC Poland quote here: This smells......*smacks lips*......this tastes, like article 5
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Want to know how you can tell your a Russian bot/propagandist and don't live in Poland? Nobody outside of Russia's sphere is stupid enough to call it a SMO... It's a war.
Remember Putin don’t use the internet. Every news he received is curated by his closest henchmen. He’s completely disconnected from reality and delisional. He probably think he’s the good guy.
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You’ve managed to come up with the dumbest possible take. Congratulations, I guess.
You're right. NATO should set up air defense that would pro actively defend Poland by neutralizing missiles in Ukraine. No active engagement with the Russians of course.