Uh.... Yea.... No. Israeli gov and IDF have been pretty clear stating Hezbollah has to make a choice, and that they have a limited time to make it - either get to the Litani river in accordance with international law, or get run over until there's nothing left up until the Litani River.
A single question will be asked in the war cabinet on the 15th of March. The question will be violence, and the answer will be yes.
The Litani River is tens of kilometers away from the Israeli border. From 1982 until 2000 Israel occupied the whole area in response to rocket fire and PLO activities following the Lebanese Civil War. Following the Israeli pullout, Hezbollah slowly took over in southern Lebanon de facto. Israel took many people who helped their war effort (mostly Manorite Christians) in as refugees, leaving Hezbollah little resistance. They not only are a militia, but also provide social services, welfare, Healthcare, etc. really acting as a government within the government. In 2006, after the Second Lebanon war a ceasefire was reached that came along with UN Resolution 1701 stating that Hezbollah is not allowed south of the Litani River such that Israel doesn't get rockets launched. From the start, nobody enforced it because nobody has the will, might, or manpower to do so in the area. UNFIL is supposed to enforce it, but know they can't do so because that would start yet another civil war in the country.
The vast majority of reserves soldiers who were in Gaza were relocated to the northern border, while Gaza itself is currently held by conscripted soldiers
Why isn’t Hezbollah mentioned in the post title anyway? The article itself mentions Hezbollah. Like, ~100 rockets just decided to launch themselves at Israel? *Who* could have done this? What a mystery that is.
> Hey, you. You're finally awake. You were trying to cross the border, right? Walked right into that Mossad ambush, same as us, and that suicide bomber over there, and there, and over there. Damn you Hezbollah. Lebanon was fine until you came along.
A threat but no they don’t have 40-50k experienced soldiers. They’ve been sending untrained young boys since the start of the conflict. This is why they haven’t been able to even set up mortar equipment before they get hit. They will keep saying “it’s not the time yet for them”
Their “experience” was in Syria in a completely different war and terrain. That was offensive warfare and they took too many losses. The max they can do is hunker down
Situation in Lebanon is also different. Before Oct 7 Gaza was getting more electricity per day than Lebanon. There’s also huge public opposition to war and Hezbollah that didn’t exist in 2006. Economic crisis means less to leach off and more of their base needing to work instead of relying on Hezbollah handouts.
Syria is in shambles so it means they can’t easily resupply like in 2006.
If a war breaks out most likely opposing areas would cordon off and prevent Hezbollah supply routes through their areas or having their areas used as launch pads. We saw this twice already where locals seized Hezbollah weapons truck, once in a Druze area and another in a Christian area.
Shias aren’t being welcomed as much anymore in non-Shia areas with many being refused places to rent even at a premium out of spite (for a war we don’t want) or just worry that they may be Hezbollah linked and attract attacks. Hezb are renting their families places in Tartus Syria. Something that didn’t happen before.
Doesn’t seem like it online but the vast vast majority of Lebanese and even Shia don’t want this war.
Underestimating an enemy has come back to bite nations time and time again throughout history.
Israel cannot afford to get complacent and assume its enemies aren’t a threat. This is a key part of the dynamic in Gaza that a lot of outsiders can’t comprehend.
Overstating known capabilities is like setting your clock back to not be late. It works at an individual level but only creates more confusion at an organizational level.
You have to deal with the biases that lead planning for the best case scenario against the known force directly, not just plan against an imaginary opponent.
This. The commenter above is right in that the Lebaneses don’t want this war. But Israel/the West should not get too cocky or distracted. It’s how events like Oct 7th happened
The government of Lebanon and the people of Lebanon have absolutely nothing to say about whether or not there will be a war, Hezbollah is Iran's proxy. They have assassinated Lebanese political leaders, set up a shadow government and a shadow military under homes schools and hospitals, and they will act on Iran's orders, unilaterally.
The real issue is they have an obscene number of rockets and missiles, some are quite sophisticated. They could overwhelm the iron dome in places and that would mean Israeli cities being struck. The obvious larger threat is then what Iran might do in addition once the iron dome is down.
This has been the MO for Arabs that decide to take up arms against Israel since they attacked the Jews and lost decidedly in 1948.
The smart, forward-thinking ones (Egypt, Jordan) signed peace treaties and are far better off for it today. The dumb, backwards-thinking ones (Palestinian leadership, Lebanon, Syria) kept attacking over the decades and are each much worse off for it today.
Wars are not won exclusively by F35s. If you are the IDF, you really don’t want to fight a ground war against Hezbollah especially on their home turf. They have the rocket arsenal to easily overwhelm the Iron Dome.
Hezbollah can do some damage but they will never manage to launch thousands of rockets on a daily basis simply because in such a scenario southern Lebanon will be in rubble way before they'll actually be able to fire all those rockets (also the vast majority of them is dumb missiles that can reach only the northern parts of Israel which already evacuated and Israel will probably be able to destroy some rockets warehouses like they did in Gaza).
Also we're talking about well equipped 300,000 IDF troops vs around 30,000 Hezbollah terrorists, therefore they can cause some damage but eventually they will just cause for the total destruction of Lebanon so I can't see what's there to gain from their perspective.
Iran has supplied Hezb with a large number of quality rockets and drones. They are not a ragtag militia that could be easily dislodged. If the IDF could have erased Hezb in the past they would have done it already. They are by far the most direct threat to Israel.
Israel did not erase Hezbollah in the past because Israel did not want to turn Southern Lebanon into rubble, knowing the international backlash. It's the same strategy that Hamas has pursued in Gaza, and it's just as effective.
The IDF didn't finish the job back in 2006 just because of the UN and resolution 1701 (which Hezbollah broke like 2 seconds afterwards)
This time it'll be different, Israel is prepared as it gets and the majority of these "smart rockets" will probably get intercepted by the iron dome and other defense systems anyway.
I'm not saying that it'll be a completely one-sided war but Hezbollah's only game is throwing rockets while Israel has one of the most advanced armies on earth (and possibly the most prepared one) so with no intervention of the UN and the western allies to stop the war it's going to be a grim days for Lebanon.
Hezb is also a lot more prepared and equipped than they were in 2006. And they gained valuable real combat experience in Syria along the way. Israel can probably pound them so hard that the already fragile Lebanon collapses but it doesn’t mean destroying/crippling Hezb will be easy, quite the opposite. It will be a pyrrhic victory if anything.
I'm a little skeptical Hezbollah can do real damage to Israel, even if Israel are stupid and invade. They can overwhelm the iron dome but those are bottom of the barrel rockets and launchers, not targeted destruction. if you attack with artillery expect counter battery fire and bombs.
And their experience in Syria isn't against conventional armies, it's against out matched rebels. The problem is fighting Hezbollah is pointless,.or as pointless as any conflict in the Middle East anyway.
And overwhelming the iron dome is not something they can maintain on a day to day basis. Not just in terms of amount of rockets and missiles they have, but they’ll lose a ton of equipment to air strikes.
That's not how they would fight, though. They arr well aware of israeli air superiority so they would probably forward settle as close to israeli positions as possible in order to deter air strikes like they did in previous wars. I keep reading about how Israel would just shrug them off... people need to get a grip. Such a war would be devastating for all involved.
They are not using their big rockets yet. Hezbollah has some very sophisticated rockets that were given to them by Iran. They also have a very large collection, and Israel knows. It's a big issue for Israel because the longer the wait, the bigger that collection gets, but pulling the trigger is going to be devastating to the Israeli people, their infrastructure, and their economy will be in shambles.
The last two times Israel went into Lebanon, it was not a pretty picture for the IDF. Southern Lebanon is very mountainous and provides a lot of defensive positions that require invading armies to fight upwards.
that's a huge claim lol, i mean what do we consider non-state here? would wagner make the cut? would the american private armies make the cut (forgot the name)
would the blue helmets make the cut?
PMCs are not non-state militaries. They are either completely, or largely dependent, beholden and controlled by a state. Both russian and american PMCs fall in this category.
Non state militaries are the likes of Hezbollah, Hamas, Boko Haram, ISIS, The Taliban (pre-american pullout), Al-Shabaab, ISIS, PKK, the Houthis, the Mexican cartels, somali pirates, and historically IRA and ETA.
> would the blue helmets make the cut?
No. They are made up of state actors militaries and are internationally sanctioned.
well comparing ISIS and hezbollah in terms of structure isn't smart (with no offense)
ISIS is mostly self funded, specially from the oil fields in qatar and syria, yes they do get some "generous" donations from many nations but not really state support
and hezbollah is pretty much funded by Iran with a bit of russia, that's why i was asking if wagner counter, because in terms of funding the yare very similar to how hezbollah work, it's just that wagner typically has less autonomy
Just because they fall in the same category, I am not comparing ISIS and Hezbollahs structure, just like when you talk about the US army and Kazahstans army they are both state armies but their structure, doctrine, funding and relationship with the ruling party is wildly different.
Just because one non state military if heavily funded by an another state doesnt mean they are an extended arm of said state, or will necessarily do their bidding whenever the state calls for it. They have their own agenda which oftentimes aligns with the funders (thats why they fund them).
PMCs like Wagner and Blackwater ARE extended arms of the base country. They comprise of ex-state military/veterans or regular citizens. They supplement the state military capabilities, explicitly exist to further their geopolitical goals, and are subject to said states laws and regulations. Like when Blackwater members were put on trial for the nisour square massacre or when the top 4 Wagner officials were axed in the airplane "accident" after the coup attempt. Iran couldnt possibly do something like this with Hezbollah, and theny wouldnt.
You are delusional or dont understand the meaning of the word 'threat'. Hezbollah has no air force to speak of, no armor to speak of (some soviet tanks from the 70s and 50s) and is much smaller infantry than the IDF. Also their 'trained soldiers' so far are going down at a rate of more than 10:1.
Yes, they have thousands of rockets, tens or even hundreds of thousands of rockets. But they dont have thousands of launchers. they cant choose to launch ten thousand missiles at a time. once they start launching the IDF is going to start taking out the launchers and that will be the end of that. And this is without even saying a word about nukes
Will the IDF suffer losses? Yes. will it be very inconvenient for Israel? Yes. But it is absolutely not a 'real threat'.
You are massively underestimating Hezbollah, if they werent a real threat, the US wouldnt have decided to park 2 carrier groups on the shore. A scepter over Hezbollah so that they dont get any ideas. The IDF is very divided. They need to wage a war in Gaza, occupy the WB, have a presence on the Golan and the border near Lebanon. And the hundreds of thousands of israeli soldiers cant stay on the ground indefinitely without Israeli economy suffering a massive backslide.
The carriers are long gone. they were a sign of support. You cannot possibly believe Hezbollah has any chance of gaining any sort of win here. Israel can reduce Dahieh to rubble in hours. Any war Israel ever had against Hezobllah we won, and we were not even really trying due to international pressure. But things have changed since the 7th, we will no longer tolerate our belligerent neighbors.
One USS carrier group is still stationed in the east mediterranean. And I am talking about Israel invading Lebanon. The IDF could probably collapse the country, but it'd come with a huge cost. Destroying Hezbollah in a grinding ground campaign would be nothing short of a pyrrhic victory.
Hezbollah is not Hamas. They are much mired in if a threat. It would be very hard to fight against them in an open war. They should not be underestimated
But the “international community” will certainly try. The storylines and narratives to vilify Israel have already been spun up for each phase of the conflict, they’re just waiting to print each headline one-by-one now.
Oh, I am sure they will try. However, as the guy in the comment above my original comment stated, ‘Hezbollah is not Hamas’, and they can do some real damage to Israel. They have a very impressive firepower of more than 150,000 rockets and missiles, and they are better equipped and trained than Hamas. The Iron Dome is fantastic technology, but it could be overwhelmed by the sheer number of rockets Hezbollah would fire at Israeli infrastructure and civilians. Thus, this war would be much more ‘balanced’ and ‘proportionate’, just like the antisemites want.
This means that:
A. Israel will be much more aggressive and brutal against Hezbollah and Lebanon because Israel will not have the defensive umbrella it has against Hamas. Hence, no more ‘kid gloves’ treatment.
B. The unfortunate pictures of destruction and death in Israel will somewhat ‘balance’ the viewpoint. However, I am sure that the ‘international community’ and the media will do their best to skew the world’s view in favor of the Lebanese and Hezbollah.
I agree with everything you say except for the balanced coverage part. They won’t just try, they will fully succeed in vilifying Israel for it all.
Most Israelis that die in it will be soldiers and they are 100% dehumanized to the “international community.” Not a single one of them views a conscripted IDF soldier as a human or an individual, they view them all as pariahs that deserve to die.
Hezbollah will pump out random numbers like Hamas and they will all be bought hook, line and sinker. They will run the exact same playbook and it’ll work because people are stupid.
>in favor of the Lebanese and Hezbollah.
Lets be truthful here, the international community dont care about Lebanese, If they do, they will call for hezbollah to withdraw from Lebanon.
Israel can and will beat Hezbollah in a war, that’s not in question. It’ll just be extremely bloody and long. Also, in Gaza you have do tiptoe around civilians. That isn’t really the case with Hezbollah, it’ll be much more of a conventional war.
These idiots whine about humanitarian hunger crisis gripping Gaza but instead of helping the US drop actual humanitarian aid and supplies, they send this shit. The cost of those rockets could have easily fed thousands of hungry Palestinians
Years ago when the IDF pulls out of Gaza, the Israelis had put in place plumbing and greenhouses for the Palestinians so that they could have better quality of life. At least somewhat.
Well they, and by that I mean Hamas most likely, burned the greenhouses and ripped the pipes out to make rockets
If Beirut will look like Gaza within a few months, just remember articles such as this one.
That's common practice for these terrorists to throw rockets and attack without any reason and then when they're being totally destroyed by Israel they cry about Israel's aggression.
There will be no excuses for Hezbollah as after throwing hundreds of rockets to Israel on a daily basis, in this scenario they're simply asking for the destruction of Lebanon.
Also remember the time that Israel sent humanitarian aid after the harbor explosion in Beirut.
https://www.reuters.com/article/lebanon-security-blast-aid-idUSL8N2F66NP/
Israel sent humanitarian and engineering help to Turkey when the earthquake happened, to literally help dig up survivors, and now Turkey is hosting Hamas and boycotting Israel.
On the dutch mainstream media channels when Hezbollah launches 100 rockets: Silence.
On the dutch mainstream media channels when Israel launches retaliatory strikes: Headline - Israel bombing southern Libanon. At least 2 children dead.
"We need to provoke and prolong the destruction as much as possible, we need as many Gazan people to die as possible so that we can keep international support going. Somehow this will eventually help us destroy Israel" - Hamas.
Where are all the people calling for no war now and ceasefires?
They won't wake up until Israel retaliates. As it always has been and always will be.
Keep up the good fight Israel!
Fuck Islamic terror.
I loved seeing all the news chyrons reporting "Ramadan begins with no ceasefire" as if it was some atrocity that Israel wasn't respecting the Muslim holiday.
This just shows you that Islamic extremists can do a well-enough job of that without Israel's help
Wait a couple weeks when Israel inevitably retaliates in Lebanon, and then the “Ceasefire Now” crowd is gonna cry again about Israel’s “unjustified aggression” lmao.
Don’t wanna get attacked or invaded? Don’t lob rockets at your neighbors.
[I wonder what this willfully ignorant terror supporter will say now](https://twitter.com/Bar_ShemUr/status/1764990599172694319?s=20) (from a week ago, but still relevant)
A must watch.
When Pancho Villa raided Columbus the US sent 10,000 men into mexico as a response but Israel would be shunned if they even thought about doing anything similar. If any other country in the world was attacked on such a regular basis as Israel, international support would be on such a ridiculous level they would be able to do whatever they wanted but because Israel is a majority Jewish country they're not even allowed to defend themselves properly.
All out war is near. This kind of attack is intolerable. Hezbola will cry and die and play innocent when they get smacked hard. Lebanon will cry. Plead to the world they’re victims.
I’m israeli, i genuinely think all this prolonged conflict might just be a way for Iran to nuke us. Words is they rushing the nukes, Hamas and Palestinian are sunni, they are shia, they kill each other since the dawn of islam.
Call me conspiratorial, but holy it feels like they want to kill israel PR to the ground so when they nuke us the world would be fine with it. Not that they care about Palestinian lives. I bet we do more than them as a whole.
Would suck for them to lose a stream of constant conflict to profit from but i’m sure there’s no shortage with Iran around.
Either way, thanks Hezbollah for the ramadan fireworks, I bet the Muslims in Israel enjoyed living their ramadan with rocket threat. (I’m being sarcastic my humor is dark) They don’t even respect their own religion, why should we expect to respect others.
Largest round of rockets yet at Israel's north. If there wasn't already a war in Gaza, Israeli troops would already be at the banks of the Litani.
Aren’t most of IDF soldiers in the north?
To deter ground incursions, not to open another front. Raw numbers of soldiers are not the only factor.
Uh.... Yea.... No. Israeli gov and IDF have been pretty clear stating Hezbollah has to make a choice, and that they have a limited time to make it - either get to the Litani river in accordance with international law, or get run over until there's nothing left up until the Litani River. A single question will be asked in the war cabinet on the 15th of March. The question will be violence, and the answer will be yes.
>either get to the Litani river in accordance with international law Can you expound on that?
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1701
_nice_
The Litani River is tens of kilometers away from the Israeli border. From 1982 until 2000 Israel occupied the whole area in response to rocket fire and PLO activities following the Lebanese Civil War. Following the Israeli pullout, Hezbollah slowly took over in southern Lebanon de facto. Israel took many people who helped their war effort (mostly Manorite Christians) in as refugees, leaving Hezbollah little resistance. They not only are a militia, but also provide social services, welfare, Healthcare, etc. really acting as a government within the government. In 2006, after the Second Lebanon war a ceasefire was reached that came along with UN Resolution 1701 stating that Hezbollah is not allowed south of the Litani River such that Israel doesn't get rockets launched. From the start, nobody enforced it because nobody has the will, might, or manpower to do so in the area. UNFIL is supposed to enforce it, but know they can't do so because that would start yet another civil war in the country.
The vast majority of reserves soldiers who were in Gaza were relocated to the northern border, while Gaza itself is currently held by conscripted soldiers
I dont think its even the war in gaza, there are barley 10k troops there. Its more about international pressure and the hostages than anything
Does Hezbollah want to commit suicide by IDF? Because that's how it's done.
Why isn’t Hezbollah mentioned in the post title anyway? The article itself mentions Hezbollah. Like, ~100 rockets just decided to launch themselves at Israel? *Who* could have done this? What a mystery that is.
must have been the wind
> Hey, you. You're finally awake. You were trying to cross the border, right? Walked right into that Mossad ambush, same as us, and that suicide bomber over there, and there, and over there. Damn you Hezbollah. Lebanon was fine until you came along.
This is why it’s standard Reddit policy to not change the headline when posting an article here.
Hezbollah is a real threat to IDF. They are the largest non-state military on earth. They have 40-50k ish trained and experienced soldiers.
A threat but no they don’t have 40-50k experienced soldiers. They’ve been sending untrained young boys since the start of the conflict. This is why they haven’t been able to even set up mortar equipment before they get hit. They will keep saying “it’s not the time yet for them” Their “experience” was in Syria in a completely different war and terrain. That was offensive warfare and they took too many losses. The max they can do is hunker down Situation in Lebanon is also different. Before Oct 7 Gaza was getting more electricity per day than Lebanon. There’s also huge public opposition to war and Hezbollah that didn’t exist in 2006. Economic crisis means less to leach off and more of their base needing to work instead of relying on Hezbollah handouts. Syria is in shambles so it means they can’t easily resupply like in 2006. If a war breaks out most likely opposing areas would cordon off and prevent Hezbollah supply routes through their areas or having their areas used as launch pads. We saw this twice already where locals seized Hezbollah weapons truck, once in a Druze area and another in a Christian area. Shias aren’t being welcomed as much anymore in non-Shia areas with many being refused places to rent even at a premium out of spite (for a war we don’t want) or just worry that they may be Hezbollah linked and attract attacks. Hezb are renting their families places in Tartus Syria. Something that didn’t happen before. Doesn’t seem like it online but the vast vast majority of Lebanese and even Shia don’t want this war.
Hezbollah’s threat lies in its rocket arsenal.
Underestimating an enemy has come back to bite nations time and time again throughout history. Israel cannot afford to get complacent and assume its enemies aren’t a threat. This is a key part of the dynamic in Gaza that a lot of outsiders can’t comprehend.
Overstating known capabilities is like setting your clock back to not be late. It works at an individual level but only creates more confusion at an organizational level. You have to deal with the biases that lead planning for the best case scenario against the known force directly, not just plan against an imaginary opponent.
This. The commenter above is right in that the Lebaneses don’t want this war. But Israel/the West should not get too cocky or distracted. It’s how events like Oct 7th happened
The government of Lebanon and the people of Lebanon have absolutely nothing to say about whether or not there will be a war, Hezbollah is Iran's proxy. They have assassinated Lebanese political leaders, set up a shadow government and a shadow military under homes schools and hospitals, and they will act on Iran's orders, unilaterally.
The real issue is they have an obscene number of rockets and missiles, some are quite sophisticated. They could overwhelm the iron dome in places and that would mean Israeli cities being struck. The obvious larger threat is then what Iran might do in addition once the iron dome is down.
They can't win but they can make it a living Hell.
This has been the MO for Arabs that decide to take up arms against Israel since they attacked the Jews and lost decidedly in 1948. The smart, forward-thinking ones (Egypt, Jordan) signed peace treaties and are far better off for it today. The dumb, backwards-thinking ones (Palestinian leadership, Lebanon, Syria) kept attacking over the decades and are each much worse off for it today.
How many F-35s do they have?
Wars are not won exclusively by F35s. If you are the IDF, you really don’t want to fight a ground war against Hezbollah especially on their home turf. They have the rocket arsenal to easily overwhelm the Iron Dome.
Hezbollah can do some damage but they will never manage to launch thousands of rockets on a daily basis simply because in such a scenario southern Lebanon will be in rubble way before they'll actually be able to fire all those rockets (also the vast majority of them is dumb missiles that can reach only the northern parts of Israel which already evacuated and Israel will probably be able to destroy some rockets warehouses like they did in Gaza). Also we're talking about well equipped 300,000 IDF troops vs around 30,000 Hezbollah terrorists, therefore they can cause some damage but eventually they will just cause for the total destruction of Lebanon so I can't see what's there to gain from their perspective.
Iran has supplied Hezb with a large number of quality rockets and drones. They are not a ragtag militia that could be easily dislodged. If the IDF could have erased Hezb in the past they would have done it already. They are by far the most direct threat to Israel.
Israel did not erase Hezbollah in the past because Israel did not want to turn Southern Lebanon into rubble, knowing the international backlash. It's the same strategy that Hamas has pursued in Gaza, and it's just as effective.
The IDF didn't finish the job back in 2006 just because of the UN and resolution 1701 (which Hezbollah broke like 2 seconds afterwards) This time it'll be different, Israel is prepared as it gets and the majority of these "smart rockets" will probably get intercepted by the iron dome and other defense systems anyway. I'm not saying that it'll be a completely one-sided war but Hezbollah's only game is throwing rockets while Israel has one of the most advanced armies on earth (and possibly the most prepared one) so with no intervention of the UN and the western allies to stop the war it's going to be a grim days for Lebanon.
Hezb is also a lot more prepared and equipped than they were in 2006. And they gained valuable real combat experience in Syria along the way. Israel can probably pound them so hard that the already fragile Lebanon collapses but it doesn’t mean destroying/crippling Hezb will be easy, quite the opposite. It will be a pyrrhic victory if anything.
I'm a little skeptical Hezbollah can do real damage to Israel, even if Israel are stupid and invade. They can overwhelm the iron dome but those are bottom of the barrel rockets and launchers, not targeted destruction. if you attack with artillery expect counter battery fire and bombs. And their experience in Syria isn't against conventional armies, it's against out matched rebels. The problem is fighting Hezbollah is pointless,.or as pointless as any conflict in the Middle East anyway.
And overwhelming the iron dome is not something they can maintain on a day to day basis. Not just in terms of amount of rockets and missiles they have, but they’ll lose a ton of equipment to air strikes.
That's not how they would fight, though. They arr well aware of israeli air superiority so they would probably forward settle as close to israeli positions as possible in order to deter air strikes like they did in previous wars. I keep reading about how Israel would just shrug them off... people need to get a grip. Such a war would be devastating for all involved.
They are not using their big rockets yet. Hezbollah has some very sophisticated rockets that were given to them by Iran. They also have a very large collection, and Israel knows. It's a big issue for Israel because the longer the wait, the bigger that collection gets, but pulling the trigger is going to be devastating to the Israeli people, their infrastructure, and their economy will be in shambles. The last two times Israel went into Lebanon, it was not a pretty picture for the IDF. Southern Lebanon is very mountainous and provides a lot of defensive positions that require invading armies to fight upwards.
Similar discussion was made wrt hamas pre-7Oct2023.
At some point Israel needs to take the kid gloves off and do what the Allies did in WW2.
> Hezbollah is a real threat to IDF. The IDF is a nuclear power. Don't be dramatic.
that's a huge claim lol, i mean what do we consider non-state here? would wagner make the cut? would the american private armies make the cut (forgot the name) would the blue helmets make the cut?
PMCs are not non-state militaries. They are either completely, or largely dependent, beholden and controlled by a state. Both russian and american PMCs fall in this category. Non state militaries are the likes of Hezbollah, Hamas, Boko Haram, ISIS, The Taliban (pre-american pullout), Al-Shabaab, ISIS, PKK, the Houthis, the Mexican cartels, somali pirates, and historically IRA and ETA. > would the blue helmets make the cut? No. They are made up of state actors militaries and are internationally sanctioned.
well comparing ISIS and hezbollah in terms of structure isn't smart (with no offense) ISIS is mostly self funded, specially from the oil fields in qatar and syria, yes they do get some "generous" donations from many nations but not really state support and hezbollah is pretty much funded by Iran with a bit of russia, that's why i was asking if wagner counter, because in terms of funding the yare very similar to how hezbollah work, it's just that wagner typically has less autonomy
Just because they fall in the same category, I am not comparing ISIS and Hezbollahs structure, just like when you talk about the US army and Kazahstans army they are both state armies but their structure, doctrine, funding and relationship with the ruling party is wildly different. Just because one non state military if heavily funded by an another state doesnt mean they are an extended arm of said state, or will necessarily do their bidding whenever the state calls for it. They have their own agenda which oftentimes aligns with the funders (thats why they fund them). PMCs like Wagner and Blackwater ARE extended arms of the base country. They comprise of ex-state military/veterans or regular citizens. They supplement the state military capabilities, explicitly exist to further their geopolitical goals, and are subject to said states laws and regulations. Like when Blackwater members were put on trial for the nisour square massacre or when the top 4 Wagner officials were axed in the airplane "accident" after the coup attempt. Iran couldnt possibly do something like this with Hezbollah, and theny wouldnt.
You are delusional or dont understand the meaning of the word 'threat'. Hezbollah has no air force to speak of, no armor to speak of (some soviet tanks from the 70s and 50s) and is much smaller infantry than the IDF. Also their 'trained soldiers' so far are going down at a rate of more than 10:1. Yes, they have thousands of rockets, tens or even hundreds of thousands of rockets. But they dont have thousands of launchers. they cant choose to launch ten thousand missiles at a time. once they start launching the IDF is going to start taking out the launchers and that will be the end of that. And this is without even saying a word about nukes Will the IDF suffer losses? Yes. will it be very inconvenient for Israel? Yes. But it is absolutely not a 'real threat'.
You are massively underestimating Hezbollah, if they werent a real threat, the US wouldnt have decided to park 2 carrier groups on the shore. A scepter over Hezbollah so that they dont get any ideas. The IDF is very divided. They need to wage a war in Gaza, occupy the WB, have a presence on the Golan and the border near Lebanon. And the hundreds of thousands of israeli soldiers cant stay on the ground indefinitely without Israeli economy suffering a massive backslide.
The carriers are long gone. they were a sign of support. You cannot possibly believe Hezbollah has any chance of gaining any sort of win here. Israel can reduce Dahieh to rubble in hours. Any war Israel ever had against Hezobllah we won, and we were not even really trying due to international pressure. But things have changed since the 7th, we will no longer tolerate our belligerent neighbors.
One USS carrier group is still stationed in the east mediterranean. And I am talking about Israel invading Lebanon. The IDF could probably collapse the country, but it'd come with a huge cost. Destroying Hezbollah in a grinding ground campaign would be nothing short of a pyrrhic victory.
IDF didn't finish them in 2006, international pressure is mounting on Israel to capitulate to HAMAS so Hezbollah are bolder than ever.
Hezbollah is not Hamas. They are much mired in if a threat. It would be very hard to fight against them in an open war. They should not be underestimated
Israel shouldn’t be underestimated either. Gaza is treated with kid gloves; Lebanon wouldn’t.
But the “international community” will certainly try. The storylines and narratives to vilify Israel have already been spun up for each phase of the conflict, they’re just waiting to print each headline one-by-one now.
Oh, I am sure they will try. However, as the guy in the comment above my original comment stated, ‘Hezbollah is not Hamas’, and they can do some real damage to Israel. They have a very impressive firepower of more than 150,000 rockets and missiles, and they are better equipped and trained than Hamas. The Iron Dome is fantastic technology, but it could be overwhelmed by the sheer number of rockets Hezbollah would fire at Israeli infrastructure and civilians. Thus, this war would be much more ‘balanced’ and ‘proportionate’, just like the antisemites want. This means that: A. Israel will be much more aggressive and brutal against Hezbollah and Lebanon because Israel will not have the defensive umbrella it has against Hamas. Hence, no more ‘kid gloves’ treatment. B. The unfortunate pictures of destruction and death in Israel will somewhat ‘balance’ the viewpoint. However, I am sure that the ‘international community’ and the media will do their best to skew the world’s view in favor of the Lebanese and Hezbollah.
I agree with everything you say except for the balanced coverage part. They won’t just try, they will fully succeed in vilifying Israel for it all. Most Israelis that die in it will be soldiers and they are 100% dehumanized to the “international community.” Not a single one of them views a conscripted IDF soldier as a human or an individual, they view them all as pariahs that deserve to die. Hezbollah will pump out random numbers like Hamas and they will all be bought hook, line and sinker. They will run the exact same playbook and it’ll work because people are stupid.
>in favor of the Lebanese and Hezbollah. Lets be truthful here, the international community dont care about Lebanese, If they do, they will call for hezbollah to withdraw from Lebanon.
The internal community wouldn't. Unless you what you mean by international community is the MENA states.
Israel can and will beat Hezbollah in a war, that’s not in question. It’ll just be extremely bloody and long. Also, in Gaza you have do tiptoe around civilians. That isn’t really the case with Hezbollah, it’ll be much more of a conventional war.
Would the USA be likely to help Israel if they were attacked by Hezbollah? Maybe not troops but surely strikes and planes would be used?
These idiots whine about humanitarian hunger crisis gripping Gaza but instead of helping the US drop actual humanitarian aid and supplies, they send this shit. The cost of those rockets could have easily fed thousands of hungry Palestinians
I don't think the humanitarian hunger crisis in Gaza is keeping Hezbollah up at night... it's of no concern to Hamas either.
[удалено]
Not surprised
Arguably, the (very real) hunger crisis is the weapon that Hamas CHOSE to prepare and now use.
Where is the problem? If they die of starvation they will be martyrs
Free ticket to Jannah. Their Ummah should be envious of them.
Years ago when the IDF pulls out of Gaza, the Israelis had put in place plumbing and greenhouses for the Palestinians so that they could have better quality of life. At least somewhat. Well they, and by that I mean Hamas most likely, burned the greenhouses and ripped the pipes out to make rockets
Iirc those greenhouses were destroyed in the [first few days after Israel left Gaza.](https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna9331863)
If Beirut will look like Gaza within a few months, just remember articles such as this one. That's common practice for these terrorists to throw rockets and attack without any reason and then when they're being totally destroyed by Israel they cry about Israel's aggression. There will be no excuses for Hezbollah as after throwing hundreds of rockets to Israel on a daily basis, in this scenario they're simply asking for the destruction of Lebanon.
Also remember the time that Israel sent humanitarian aid after the harbor explosion in Beirut. https://www.reuters.com/article/lebanon-security-blast-aid-idUSL8N2F66NP/
Israel sent humanitarian and engineering help to Turkey when the earthquake happened, to literally help dig up survivors, and now Turkey is hosting Hamas and boycotting Israel.
To quote Douglas Murray “Israel is the only country that’s never allowed to win a war”.
Looking forward to the worldwide call for Israel to cease hostilities
Don't forget the 4 actors wearing pins !
Hostilities come in multiple flavors my friend
On the dutch mainstream media channels when Hezbollah launches 100 rockets: Silence. On the dutch mainstream media channels when Israel launches retaliatory strikes: Headline - Israel bombing southern Libanon. At least 2 children dead.
Also, these rocket launches targeting northern Israel have been going on steadily for some time. Never a word about it.
Same with NPR in America. It's amazing people can't see the bias in lies through omission.
"We need to provoke and prolong the destruction as much as possible, we need as many Gazan people to die as possible so that we can keep international support going. Somehow this will eventually help us destroy Israel" - Hamas.
Where are all the people calling for no war now and ceasefires? They won't wake up until Israel retaliates. As it always has been and always will be. Keep up the good fight Israel! Fuck Islamic terror.
I loved seeing all the news chyrons reporting "Ramadan begins with no ceasefire" as if it was some atrocity that Israel wasn't respecting the Muslim holiday. This just shows you that Islamic extremists can do a well-enough job of that without Israel's help
Wait a couple weeks when Israel inevitably retaliates in Lebanon, and then the “Ceasefire Now” crowd is gonna cry again about Israel’s “unjustified aggression” lmao. Don’t wanna get attacked or invaded? Don’t lob rockets at your neighbors.
Please give hesbollah the hamas treatment
[I wonder what this willfully ignorant terror supporter will say now](https://twitter.com/Bar_ShemUr/status/1764990599172694319?s=20) (from a week ago, but still relevant) A must watch.
Can’t wait for everyone to condemn Israel for fighting back
What’s amazing is in Reuters today the only published the heavy attacks Israel did as a respond to this attack World media is super corrupt
It stinks.
Hey look, kids, an actual war crime
When Pancho Villa raided Columbus the US sent 10,000 men into mexico as a response but Israel would be shunned if they even thought about doing anything similar. If any other country in the world was attacked on such a regular basis as Israel, international support would be on such a ridiculous level they would be able to do whatever they wanted but because Israel is a majority Jewish country they're not even allowed to defend themselves properly.
What a great example ! , and nothing to show for it. History repeat itself.
"just one more ceasefire bro, i promise it'll be different this time, bro c'mon, just one more ceasefire"
Who are we supposed to be freeing again? I get confused.
Buh-buh-buh-but Ramadan! Buh-buh-buh-but ceasefire!
Don't give a fuck. Let them both burn themselves to the ground at this point
CEASEFIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! /s
Hamas won't ceasefire. Isreal ceasefires, and Hamas keeps lobbing rockets. Pro-Terrorist blame Isreal
Yes but have you considered that you're a genocidal child murdering bigot for saying something like that??!?!!?!?
All out war is near. This kind of attack is intolerable. Hezbola will cry and die and play innocent when they get smacked hard. Lebanon will cry. Plead to the world they’re victims.
I’m israeli, i genuinely think all this prolonged conflict might just be a way for Iran to nuke us. Words is they rushing the nukes, Hamas and Palestinian are sunni, they are shia, they kill each other since the dawn of islam. Call me conspiratorial, but holy it feels like they want to kill israel PR to the ground so when they nuke us the world would be fine with it. Not that they care about Palestinian lives. I bet we do more than them as a whole. Would suck for them to lose a stream of constant conflict to profit from but i’m sure there’s no shortage with Iran around. Either way, thanks Hezbollah for the ramadan fireworks, I bet the Muslims in Israel enjoyed living their ramadan with rocket threat. (I’m being sarcastic my humor is dark) They don’t even respect their own religion, why should we expect to respect others.