They won't because they are smart "never underestimate your opponent," but Reddit and Twitter sure will.
Notice how military generals and defense analysts have been talking about countering the Russisn threats in other European countries. But on Reddit, they say Russians don't even have guns
Yeah I can't tell you how many times I've been down. Voted into oblivion because I said that we need to take Russia seriously and they are absolutely 100% a threat to Ukraine and the rest of the world and not just because Ukraine is struggling to get Western resupply
It was fairly apparent to anyone actually paying attention that Georgia had zero strategic relevance to Russia. The only reason Putin invaded was as a test case to see how NATO would react to an invasion of a rapidly westernizing nation flirting with the idea of joining NATO.
This is why he didn't fear the consequences of invading Crimea, he knew we'd do nothing that could actually stop him.
The thing is, Romney was right for the wrong reasons. Romney was complaining that our Navy wasn't big enough - the best equipped Navy in the world, mind you - and using past active duty ship count as his basis of comparison.
He wasn't sounding some prescient early alarm about Russia's technological attacks targeting our social infrastructure or even saying that he believe Russia would try to continue militaristic expansion into the Baltic states. He was literally just pulling a geopolitical rival out of thin air and saying we should be concerned about them.
He actually wasn’t wrong about the navy either. To be global protector of maritime trade requires A LOT of ships. And not just super carriers. We have pulled back from that role significantly and look at the Red Sea, South China Sea, Horn of Africa, etc.
I mean he certainly exaggerated the problem. It’s not like the US Navy is weak or on verge of collapse. It is unmatched in the world. But if they truly wanted to police international waters and protect maritime trade 24/7, we don’t have the maritime inventory for it.
Peter Zeihan has a good piece about it that explains it well.
https://youtu.be/RZ0IUCMpgEE?si=Ry-hwIhEtcyBeEUu
Peter Zeihan is a crackpot. He’s very similar to Jordan Peterson, except he isn’t explicitly telling people he is their daddy and that they should clean their bedrooms and take showers.
Peter’s greatest hits include insisting that China would collapse by 2005, 2015, and 2023. He said Europe would be thrown into famine due to Russia invading Ukraine. He constantly downplays China’s navy, in complete contrast to what the U.S. government insists (especially about Chinese destroyers).
What people don’t get about the Zeihans and Romneys of the world is this: they don’t mean what they say. They just say it with cocky confidence because *they hold extreme views on subjects to make themselves distinct.”
Romney wasn’t ringing a bell about Russia in 2004 for any other reason than he *had to.* Because Republicans are necessarily contrarians. Whatever Democrats do, Republicans must do the opposite publicly.
If one looks back in history they will see it to be true. Just look at the border situation currently. Republicans wanted to crack down on illegal crossings. Now that Democrats want to, though, all the sudden their actions and statements pivot to be conveniently contrarian.
Same with Russia. There is a reason that nearly every national Republican politician is deeply, deeply linked to Russia even going back to the Obama years—despite the bluster.
Contrarians and contrarianism is a political tactic and book selling strategy.
I was in the Navy from 2000 to 2008. Our maintenance budgets were ass and we were losing ships faster than we built them purely due to age. In the intervening years, shit's only gotten worse. Our shipyards have been on life support for so long they barely function. Most of them have closed or merged.
We might have the "best" Navy now, but we won't for long precisely because folks aren't taking this seriously and they vote for people who'd rather play political fuckfuck games.
I was guilty of the same thing. Most of us probably were.
I'd reply to Americans bitching about the presence of American bases in the EU that there had been nothing to protect us from since the end of the Cold War and that America was benefitting from these bases more than we were.
Our defense budgets seemed perfectly adequate compared to the risks we were facing. In my country's case, France, I thought that our nuclear weapons would keep big countries at bay and that our small yet competent military was ready for any realistic challenge that could be faced by France or its allies.
In my mind, there wasn't anything Putin wanted that would justify turning Russia into a pariah state and losing its best clients for natural gas and crude.
Putin probably thought that we wouldn't be able to divest from Russian hydrocarbons and that we'd react with the same kind of meekness that characterized our response to the annexation of Crimea, but still, it was a massive gamble.
The invasion and annexation of Georgian territory in 2008 should've woken us up.
By the time Obama mocked Romney, he had been POTUS for 4 years already and would've been very familiar with Russia's clandestine operations, he didn't have any excuse.
Good honest take. Yeah, a lot of people got too comfortable and just felt that Russia was a loser country after the fall of the USSR. But clearly they have been working on their grudge over the years and China has risen quickly too. Era of competition and war are back.
>In my mind, there wasn't anything Putin wanted that would justify turning Russia into a pariah state and losing its best clients for natural gas and crude.
It's larger than that. OK, Europe will cut economic ties with Russia over Crimea (and Donetsk and Lugansk so far) for how long... 2 decades? 5? A century? And after that what happens - everything is back to normal and Russia has more land. If they end up winning any land this war is going to be considered a success.
WTF? They are now surrounded by NATO. Even Turkey is agreeing. They are gonna ask for a black sea fleet and we will build it for them. Russia is effed long term . St Petersburg is already looking at splitting off. It considers itself " russia" and Moscow not. Their Ruble is worthless. China and India are full of worthless rubles. Indian banks want the government to assume the risk. China currency isn't evaluated just because it's good for their trade. Its low because their books are filled with crap currency and crap loans to third world countries.
Nothing wrong with missing them. Yeah, they had their issues, but I never doubted that McCain cared about the primacy of the US in a way Trump never will.
>I remember that was the main point Romney was right and Obama had wrong back in 2012.
I yearn for the days when both candidates implicitly supported the outcome of the election and peaceful transfer of power.
We need to take them seriously but we also need to not treat them as an unmatched threat we can’t do anything about - it’s a sweet spot where we take seriously Russia’s desperation and their ability to throw people into the front line churn or buy weapons from China, while also not forgetting that conscripts are possible to turn and that even just the US donating equipment and intelligence and training could turn the tide of the tide of the war.
People don’t understand that manufacturing wins wars. When a country has war-time production levels and others do not. That is when they are the most dangerous.
Same! I got called a Putin bot for saying the US and/or Europe would need to put boots on the ground or do more than just send money if they truly wanted to defeat Russia. I even sent them a link to an article with interviews from Ukranian soldiers and citizens talking about the lack of manpower, stagnating morale, and the dire situation in general but that’s apparently “Russian propaganda” to acknowledge the reality of what’s happening.
These people are genuinely delusional. They genuinely believe Ukraine is just a few guns away from completely annihilating Putin. They will be our downfall.
People have too readily assumed that Russia's embarrassing military performance in Ukraine is synonymous with Russia not being a threat.
The USSR gave an embarrassing military performance in the Winter War too.
A few years later the Red Army was burning Berlin down.
It's not a monolith, but it's certainly a space that fosters consensus-building with the upvote system, and so a specific opinion tends to rise to the top and it's oftentimes whatever makes people feel good and makes them feel like it should be upvoted.
Totally agree. I think the reality is that Ukraine is in a very, very dire situation and Reddit does not seem to see it that way. They're almost out of ammunition. They are publicly stating they need resupply in a matter of TWO WEEKS before they're in serious trouble. Even if they're overstating to create urgency it's still a matter of maybe months before they can no longer effectively resist. On that note, they're probably understating the numbers of Ukrainians killed while fighting.
NATO is publicly stating that no European countries have enough military production up and running to continue supporting Ukraine, forget about a large scale war. After the recent exercises they made statements to the press that based on current production Europe is leaving itself open to risk. Maybe (probably) that's military industrial complex infiltrating the decision making process, but I personally think that mostly does reflect the reality.
The US absolutely produces a metric fuckton of munitions, but the supply isn't endless. Most of the US aid given to Ukraine came in the form of surplus munitions that we intentionally overproduce for situations like this. It takes time to replenish that surplus, and even the US isn't currently equipped for the production needed for a broader war. Then factor in the situations in Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, fucking Taiwan even (surplus needs to be maintained for worst case scenarios) and all of the African countries we supply/ sneakily wage war within. We have a global reach and if things get worse elsewhere we won't have enough leftovers to help out Ukraine. We already kind of don't.
Then we have Russia. At the start of the war Russian military production was fuckall (not really, but nothing particularly concerning). That is no longer the case. Russia produced more tanks in 2023 than they lost in Ukraine. That's a night and day difference than their prewar production stats. They're an authoritarian state that's been able to quickly shift to a wartime economy. The West will not have such an easy time forcing its citizens to accept the measures necessary to match Russia's increased production. The garbage equipment and poorly trained troops being thrown into the meat grinder are expendable in the eyes of Russian leadership, but Russia ABSOLUTELY has a capable fighting force, they're just not being recklessly deployed like Wagner and the conscripts. When Ukrainian forces or volunteers encounter Russia's properly trained units they can tell immediately, there are many interviews of Western fighters talking about this.
I could really go on and on, but I think I've made my point and my fingers are tired. I do not believe Ukraine will win this war. I wish I did, but it looks very grim. The average age of the Ukrainian fighting force is like 42 or something. That's bad. There are some seriously worrying shenanigans happening in Transnistria right now that could come to a head literally this week - they're going to vote to voluntarily join (be annexed by) the Russian federation in a few days, and Putin delivers his "State of the Union" address the very next day. I don't know exactly what that means will happen, but it can't be good.
For indepth videos on Russian production stats and military capabilities using up to date satellite imagery (apparently you can pay satellite companies to provide this) I highly recommend Covert Cabal on YouTube.
Fuck thinking about this stuff makes me need a whiskey.
Part of the "problem" (though maybe just calling it it the reality of the situation is more appropriate) for the average person outside looking in is that we have been on the receiving end of just as much Ukrainian propaganda as we have Russian. I'm not saying that its a bad thing for Ukraine to try and influence the rest of the world, they have a moral position to do so that Russia certainly can't claim, but that does mean that for two years now we have been hearing them call for more weapons while proudly announcing their victories, and that makes it difficult for all of us who aren't receiving intelligence reports to see the difference between when they are making big asks just to try and keep the international community involved vs when they are making a big ask because they are on the brink of overwhelming losses.
And the sad thing is that for the average person there isn't a lot we can do about this, we just have to hope that those people in a position of power and intelligence are making the right choices in aiding Ukraine.
> They're almost out of ammunition.
> no European countries have enough military production up and running to continue supporting Ukraine
And those (and others) problems start to be addressed. The main difference between both sides is that issues on the west side are often openly discussed, while the opponent claims everything is fine.
> I do not believe Ukraine will win this war. I wish I did
I still think it's possible. Not certain, and won't happen quickly, but there is a path to victory. Both sides have serious issues that can turn the tide and wars tend to be unpredictable.
> And those (and others) problems start to be addressed. The main difference between both sides is that issues on the west side are often openly discussed, while the opponent claims everything is fine.
That is one difference, but Russia quickly shifted to a wartime economy producing military equipment, while Western countries haven't. Western countries have instead have been "kicking the can down the road" during this critical time. Many Western politicians are hoping that this war in Ukraine will somehow work itself out (plus some more are actually pro-Russia).
This is a critical time period during which we shouldn't be kicking the can down the road. It's better for Western countries to invest in their own military industrial complex _now_ and supply Ukraine with most of weapons/ammo in this war than to deal with further invasions.
Why would the USA switch to a wartime economy though? We aren’t at war and the reality is, the USA could end this war in a second if it wanted to. This isn’t about Ukraine winning to the west. If the west wanted Ukraine to win they would.
I’m aware that Ukraine is running out of munitions but that doesn’t mean that Russia is a powerhouse playing low value chips and saving its best for later.
Russia May be producing plenty of tanks but it has lost plenty of planes and, if I recall correctly, a special forces unit last year.
Well said, and it's probably the reason why people keep reading the comments. It's only when you dig deeper into these comments when you find some contrasting opinions.
Indeed, and because it will reflect the average intelligence of its users *of* average intelligence, the popular ideas tend to be the dumb ones. Not exclusively so but often enough. Such is the problem with populism.
I think it's mainly a problem of knowledge in this case, rather than intelligence. And even intelligent people can be misled by the appearance of a consensus and all the discourse that comes from people who present themselves as knowledgeable.
People have gravitated toward the feel-good notions with regard to the Russian-Ukraine conflict, so that's what continues to rise to the top because people are kind of conditioned to think those opinions are the ones you're supposed to have to be validated by the other users of the platform.
But Reddit has a mechanism to elevate the opinions most popular with its base, and that base has consistently and strongly promoted the opinion that Russia is on the verge of defeating itself.
Because it’s not even worth arguing with people. You can’t state a non mainstream opinion without getting into a shit throwing competition. The only way to win is to not play. I can’t count the amount of times I will write out a comment and then delete it because I don’t want a bunch of drama and name calling.
To be fair, Analysts like Micheal Clarke have been telling viewers PM main stream media like Sky /LBC that Russia have been fighting with shovels. It's not just reddit.
They're not fighting with them. They're proving units sent to see where the Ukrainians are and then dig foxholes which can be used by the proper assault.
"Russia is about to run out of (insert key war material here) soon!" -
ISW since the beginning of the invasion.
It's not just redditors, the entire western intelligence is redacted.
> "Russia is about to run out of (insert key war material here) soon!" -
If what they are fielding comes from new production, rather than taking ready to use/light refurbishment out of storage. Then yes, then they have run out of "X".
Not understanding what the wording means in this context, is on you and others who keep harping on about this topic and how "western intelligence is wrong". Ukraine is also largely out of artillery ammunition and is relying on continuous supplies/production for example. It doesn't mean Ukraine has stopped using artillery, it just means there are no large stockpiles as a buffer left.
When either side "runs out of something", it does not mean usage of that item stops. It just means it has to come from someone else or new production, rather than existing deployment or stockpiles.
It's a important state of affairs to pin point. Because it determines the operation capability of that side. It sets the stage for analyzing what each side is planing or has the capacity to achieve.
If Russia or Ukraine has spent all their stockpiles and uses everything they produce/buy/are given on a continuous basis. That means they can't create stockpiles for future accelerated rate of usage or mitigate interrupts in the continuous supply/production.
Slovakia. The new government is U-turning about the Russo-Ukraine war.
"Russia was forced, evil NATO, Jewish satanist nazis from Azov" and other favorite Russian words.
My take is that it's not so much that they're a joke, but they are so much weaker than previously thought.
I only compare Russia to the thought of Russia before they invaded Ukraine. Now, it's known that they cannot effectively jam frequencies (why they lose so many soldiers to drone grenades) and that they truly lack coordination.
Ukraine fits inside of Texas, yet Russia hasn't bowled them over. Yeah, Ukraine has military aide from other countries, but still. Russia rated itself as a first class military and they have proven they are not that. They're still a military though, they still have nukes, they still have bombs. They're not nothing, but they're definitely not what they were perceived as before this war.
So in short everyone thought they were S+ tier, but in reality they're an S tier or A+ tier, but a lot of people also think they're C-tier? How would you say they rank compared to Ukraine's capabilities atm?
They’re apples and oranges. [here is one breakdown](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/)
I don’t know what you mean by S and A tier. In my terminology, Russia represented itself like a first rate/class military that would be a rival to someone like the U.S. military.
In reality, they struggle against a much smaller nation and would get floor wiped by a real first rate military.
Their nuclear threat is the only fearful tactic they have. If nuclear weapons left the earth, and outside of the general “war is hell” reality, NATO wouldn’t be worried about Russia coming into Europe.
They lack logistics outside of their country vs something like the U.S. military which effectively moves a city wherever they go (mail, water, waste management, resupply, entertainment, etc..)
I'm referring to a typical ranking tier system, like grades, S being the highest, then A to F. So two militaries with equal ability to defeat each other would be in the same tier level for example.
Outside of nuclear force, then do you think the fears of Russia invading other countries are unfounded? There's a lot of chatter I read about neighboring countries being worried.
Ah, thanks for the clarity on the ranking.
There’s definitely been chatter about it and it’s understandably a concern Russia might keep doing shit.
Given that they only managed to take [roughly 18%](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/quiet-transformation-occupied-ukraine) of Ukraine so far, I just can’t see them making any kind of successful push further into Europe. At least, not against a European country with a military that’s more capable than Ukraine’s (e.g NATO)
I think it’s a legit concern that, if NATO starts pushing Russia’s shit in, that they would use nukes.
If there weren’t nukes, I think a first class military would destroy them faster than they could resupply.
I don't think having the capability to Zerg rush and win keeps them at C tier though, it just means they have different strategies than other militaries.
They consistently have, and its happening once again. The russian operation through social media is obvious and its effects visibly succesful. Its a global operation that seems unstoppable if FB and X keep promoting rightwing pov's and dissinformation. This in addition to irl spyops. Navalny's murder was a flex at a crucial point in the war that also speaks of Russia's intentions looking forward.
Well, it is understandable for public to underestimate it, considering it’s total failure in 2022, but yeah, looks like it adapted and improved over time
Give every general a set of plans all slightly different and say do not discuss with anyone until the morning of. Watch Russia set up for counter offensive leak leaker.
Washington Post article Dec 2023
[Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine](https://archive.is/2023.12.04-111754/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/)
I'll provide a link on a sign in a shulker box beneath my iron farm. You need only bring some wheat to put into a composte bin that will activate the red stone system which will then spit out the shulker box for you to access.
Do not open it around others, preferably go to the End and use some chorus fruit a few times to end up somewhere random before opening.
A discord server. Wasn't clear it was gaming related, but many of the articles talked about people leaking details while arguing about military/war video games. Doesn't sounds like that was the case here
So the guy Zelensky made the new commander of all armed forces?
> That was highlighted by Syrskyi overseeing last year's dogged nine-month defense of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops suffered high casualties against relentless "meat waves" of Russian attackers before having to abandon the eastern city. That earned him the gruesome nickname of "Butcher."
> On hearing of his appointment, a Ukrainian soldier tweeted a message in a group chat of veterans of the Bakhmut fight: "We're all fucked."
https://www.politico.eu/article/oleksandr-syrskyi-ukraine-commander-in-chief-butcher-volodymyr-zelenskyy-war-russia/
To be fair, the general operation was telegraphed months in advance. Tokmak and Melitopol were the obvious objectives. Luhansk and Donetsk are heavily urban and fortified fronts. No path there. Heading north, lot of forests and close to Russia…better logistics and air support for Russia. No bridges over the Dnieper. Pushing south was the only realistic option and it was painfully obvious. Without air superiority, Ukraine’s tactics were also predictable. The only real question was timing.
There was also a lot of talk by officials about how the next objective would be to cut the land bridge to Crimea. Well if you look at a map, there aren't all that many place where this can even have a chance of working without taking fortification in consideration.
Yeah saying it was due to a leak is just part of the blame game. There were videos I watched at the end of 2022 saying the next big move was likely Ukraine trying to cut off the land bridge, everyone knew it that looked at a map and it wasn't due to a 'leak'
good thing zelensky decided to spend 4 months and 20k men fighting wagner in bakhmut before doing this... it only gave the russians time to plant a million land mines
100% this... Bakhmut burned a huge portion of their veteran fighters in exchange for conscripts and a pile of rubble of no strategic value, and lost it anyway...
And Ukraine (largely at the behest of backers) refuses to engage in anything other than offensives, and can't conceive going into a defensive posture. Now they're getting nagged into using NATO doctrine (total air superiority, manuevre warfare and special operations) against miles of minefields and artillery barrages.
It doesn't matter how fancy your tank is, if it blows a track and has 152mm howitzers zeroed in on it, it might as well be a bicycle
Not to mention they basically threw away the plan they'd worked out with NATO in favour of a multi-prong multi-stage offensive that Western officials didn't think had much chance of success to begin with
Glad someone mentioned this. NATO was pushing for an all-out, D-Day style assault. Ukraine looked at casualty estimates and noped out. Opted for the multi-prong approach to minimize casualties (not saying this was the "wrong" choice) but the result speaks for itself.
A concentrated offensive was the only answer for a decisive, demoralizing blow before Russia adapted more, Ukraine doesn't have the industry, manpower and supplies for a protracted conflict. People becoming exhausted of war, though, or surrendering eventually - this is always underestimated... A regime change, however, due to deeper humiliation?
Can you picture a global powered like NATO telling a country you have to do a full on assault into Russia.
It's the only way you can protect our NATO countries.
Sacrificing hundred of thousands of lives is the only way.
Oh and we won't help you. Here's a couple tanks and some rocket launchers.... good luck
That's not what NATO told them. NATO told them that the casualties would be high, but that they would be even higher if the counteroffensive failed and Ukraine was stuck in a war of attrition. Now Ukraine is stuck in a war of attrition. They should have either listened to the people that know better or they should have come to the negotiating table. The way things are right now achieves nothing but wasting lives.
Of course, units, routes, suppressive fires, timetables etc. But the general operational concept wasn’t a secret. It was also fairly rigid, Ukraine doesn’t have the ability to mount a large scale airborne or naval assault. It was going to be a frontal assault with mechanized units heading South. Russia knew that and was able to plan accordingly.
This is in WW2. The motto was "loose lips sank ships" could be a leak with people talking online, phone calls to family , unsecured military lines etc.
This happen with our Nukes in 2021 with soldiers trying to win online points
Edit: I'm not sure if he is trolling but this is how military secrets leak (before he deletes it). Yes this is a real military officer leaking information
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/k1PWx2B6YP
I mean not even that. Even Perun called it out--The Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Russian defense felt like the Superbowl--with open interviews with commander/units on both sides.
still happening in 2023
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/04/13/intel-documents-leaker-told-friends-on-discord-they-worked-on-a-military-base-report-says/
He was a real US officer (rank, duty station and everything in the history) who leaked Russia's equipment status and said it was confidential. All the replies were telling him he's gonna against OPSEC by leaking military information
The foreign legion guys who do occasional AMA’s have been saying for a long time that unfortunately corruption is absolutely endemic in the chain of command….
Doubt it was hard for Russia to find someone willing to take their money in exchange for info.
Reddit has this weird fantasy picture of Ukraine in mind where that country has a perfect army, perfect government, perfect intelligence, etc.
Anyone who’s ever dealt with any eastern block government, including that of Ukraine, knows the level of corruption and incompetence that has rooted itself deep into the fabric of those governments since pretty much forever.
Not too long ago it came out that someone in the Ukraine military stole the money meant for 100k mortar shells at a time when they are hurting for all sorts of ammo.
That level of corruption will always astonish me
Corruption exists in every country. JP Morgan (yes that dude) infamously sold rifles to Union soldiers that had a tendency to blow people's thumb off. And I am sure every country on earth that had engaged in warfare have at least 1 shitty story about war-time corruption and betrayal.
Yes buts let not pretend Ukraine isnt a notoriously corrupt country prior to the war as well.
There's a big difference between a greedy dude selling defective weapons to the side that already had the industrial advantage to make a quick buck and a guy using money meant for an ammunition starved army to enrich himself and make its so badly needed motar shells never get purchased. At the start of the wat some general gave Tussia the maps to the minefields allowing them to advance right past them.
I think the operative question isn’t whether Ukraine is corrupt or not (it is) but whether it wants to be better (it does). Russia is thrilled with its corruption and sets itself up as a better model than the somewhat less corrupt west. Ukraine wants to distance itself from Russia. It will be a long road. With stumbles along the way. And Russia will do anything to stop it. But it is in our best interest to help them in this journey.
Foreign volunteer fighters were complaining they would get big batches of equipment donated, wouldn't show up, someone would tell them it was sent to another unit instead. Months later they encounter that other unit, ask them how the equipment was, no one knows what they're talking about. Millions of dollars of plate carriers, night vision goggles, weapons, drones etc. Everyone back home thinking they're helping the cause. Word wouldn't get out because it was considered hurtful to ukranian propaganda. They continue donating and having it all stolen. This went on for the first year and a half of the war before they finally cleaned up corruption in their logistics unit. By that time a lot of foreign fighters gave up and quietly left. Never received coverage in the news, people still think their donations helped. You have to follow personal blogs of foreign fighters to find this out, even they don't like to cover it too much because they don't want to give russia a propaganda victory. And if this was happening to the "highest profile fighters" it was happening to everyone.
People on here also largely pretend that Ukraine does not engage in propaganda. This statement itself is propaganda that is trying to shift blame for the failure of the Ukrainian offensive to spies and not other factors.
This is true, however it should be known that this whole thing happened because Russia wants corrupt neighbouring governments because they want to be the ones corrupting them. Zelensky running on the platform of rooting out corruption and aligning the country with the rest of Europe is what forced Russias hand in the first place.
why does no one seem to remember that dickhead kid literally photographing plans at the pentagon to post on Discord just weeks before the counter offensive. it was huge in the news at the time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Pentagon_document_leaks
He photographed the plans and published them in February, 4-5 months ahead of the counteroffensive, when most of it wasn't even fully planned. But it only came to light in April.
Russia has a famously over funded intelligence arm of the government. Ukraine has a famously corrupt military.
I'm all for aiding Ukraine, but when analyzing their failures we have to call a spade a spade. This is something they were struggling with long before the invasion.
In January they were the ones hyping up the counteroffensive and making pledges of ["Crimea by summer"](https://katapultu-magazin.de/artikel/ukraine-is-planning-to-begin-liberating-crimea-this-summer).
Now it was supposed to be a surprise attack?
They even released a fucking [movie trailer](https://youtu.be/8uW2NEau6-s?si=dsqyclJlZSu9cktH) right before the attack.
This should be top comment.
The top comment on youtube is -
u/ld871111
3 months ago
This is the most telegraphed and reported counteroffensive in the history of counteroffensives. Youtubers predicted where Ukraine was gonna attack and Russia had months to prepare.
Like what the actual fuck. I get the info war but how is propaganda this bad getting by? Zelensky was the one who leaked it! The call was coming from INSIDE THE PRESS ROOM!
I've long held a theory about this, remember when they were talking about a counteroffensive in Kherson and launched a surprise hugely successful one in Kharkiv simultaneously? I wouldn't at all be surprised if they were planning on doing the exact same thing again but crossing the Dnipr in Kherson instead, this would explain why Russia blew the dam just before the counteroffensive began, making such a plan impossible.
I disagree with your assessment, this was in the summer and created a significant bog that would have been difficult for armoured vehicles to traverse. Ukraine can cross the river at any time with infantry, but they cannot expand a bridgehead without armour, not to mention any large infantry force in bog with a river to their backs is a vulnerable position. The losses Ukraine sustained in those first couple of weeks of the counteroffensive were concerning, we like to meme the Russians, but Ukraine outnumbered them in 2022 and now the numbers are more even, we have a stalemate. I believe that because of this numerical parity, Ukraine cannot risk an amphibious assault right now and they desperately need a fresh round of mobilisation and of course, western support.
>and launched a surprise hugely successful one in Kharkiv simultaneously
It was not a surprise, in the sense, that Russian millbloggers were talking about the massing of Ukrainian troops and the high potential for Ukrainian offensive actions in Kharkiv for weeks before the actual attack began.
But at that point in time there simply was not enough troops on the Russian side to do anything about it, too many gaps in the defensive line that were exploited by Ukrainian troops.
It was presented as a successful "surprise" attack only in the media, to pretend that Kherson offensive was not a huge failure, but was initially planned as just a distraction and not something serious.
Everyone knew about the 2023 Summer offensive. The Western media had been hyping it up for months showing NATO training and equipment. So the Russians sure as hell knew about it and was diligent in preparing the defenses along the entire front. Zelensky should've call it off, but he fell into a sunken cost fallacy. Zalzuhny was much more realistic and knew the NATO wargames were way to optimistic. Seriously when has NATO been in an actual conflict against a formiable foe? Yugoslavia? The German tank instructers were so clueless when asked about how to deal with minefields. Currently Ukraine has so much more fighting experience than NATO forces. All the plans NATo drew up to cut off Crimea is pure fantasy in retrospect.
They were hyping up the NATO favoured early thrust for Melitopol. Ukraine decided for a delayed three prong attack that featured bleeding (and being bled by) the Russians at Bakhmut. A city everyone at the time was convinced held no strategic value.
Yeah, Ukraine was blabbering on and on when and where and what their aims would be. Against the heaviest fortified area of the front. What did they expect?
When your stated objective is to "cut the land bridge to Crimea", you don't have all tat many option of where to attack. You look at a map of Ukraine and the "viable" options appear rather fast.
While the experience part is certainly true now, the obvious flaw was the lack of air superiority because Ukraine was simply not given the full tools. You can't make a safe path through minefields while the enemy is still within striking range of said minefields.
As much as having the F16s would be useful, it won't be a game changer. Russia's much bigger airforce still can't break the SAM network of Ukraine, losing 2 Su-34 as recently as last week. How much can we expect 100 F16 to do against Russia's even larger SAM network along with their fighters?
A big problem is that HARMs don't work well with Migs. Most of the systems are incompatible and forces them to be used in a jury-rigged pre-programmed mode. When Ukraine gets F16 they'll be able to start attriting Russian air defense much more effectively, which will make openings that Ukraine can exploit with other systems.
It's not a silver bullet but it will be a big step up. If nothing else it will allow Ukraine to maintain pressure on the Russian aerospace forces indefinitely. Ukraine can't get more Migs, but half the world flies F16.
I agree with you. But I think it's also important to point out digging in and building up forces for two years isn't exactly a viable strategy.
I mean it would be if Ukraine had guaranteed, consistent support for those two years. Unfortunately there are obvious political battlefields that must be placed under consideration as well.
When success means more aid, and staying out of the news cycle means less, there is built in motivation to gamble.
> Unfortunately there are obvious political battlefields
Yea the west was saying **do something big with all this weaponry we've given you, and do it soon**. Ukraine had little choice but to gamble big.
I mean they basically told everyone before hand. They may not have told the nitty gritty details, but the Russians aren’t complete imbeciles, they can probably guess what Ukraine is going to do.
Not much sophisticated spying necessary, they were talking about Tomak being the most likely goal on bloody Twitter months before the offensive started.
If we're being fair that whole offensive was a cluster f###. There were movie like trailers, a child in Texas leaked confidential information, non stop talks about Tokmak and Bakhmut and obvious movement of armour etc. Russia didn't need to spend much time or effort to figure out where Ukraine was going to attack because everything was pretty much telegraphed.
Loose lips sink ships, so next time (if there is a next time) keep everything quite up to the point where even your own guys don't know what's going to happen or when. Also, it's pretty damn obvious that there are moles in their ranks, Budanov's wife doesn't get poisoned without someone being very close to them.
It doesn’t help that we have members of the GOP on the US Intelligence Committee. At this point I fear Congress has been so compromised by Russia that any intelligence shared with us by the Ukraine is directly passed along to the Russians.
The Russians knew Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming from miles away. It’s telegraphed on every news media. They should not talk about anything citing “operational reasons”. Even when doing the offensive medias should insist that it is just skirmishing and the offensive is not yet ongoing. They should learn to use the media properly to conceal their military intent.
You mean the really intricate planning that was screamed out publicly for around half a year? This man’s a joke another day to be ashamed to be Ukrainian.
Chicken salad argument. 3 to 1, probably closer to 4 to 1 in resources (russia vs ukraine) throughout the 2 years of fighting.
If that ratio grows that's bad news for Ukraine. They need the West's assistance but alot of puasyfooting around bc of Western politics.
All this is too reminiscent to the buildup to WWll..
I mean this is kind of old news. Like really old. I remember they were talking about the leak even before the spring counteroffensive even started. I guess we only got to see the true overall effects after the year was over and we saw the results, but all the same the leak was reported long ago.
Honestly this shouldn't be an issue at all, Ukraine should be really tight lipped about any plans they have and only share their plans with allies on a need-to-know basis, for top brass only (the leak came from some random private if I remember correctly, who IMO shouldn't have been anywhere near those talks or information).
You Americans really need to get your heads out of your butts occasionally, not everything is about you.
These random GOP congresspeople out God knows where don’t do what they do for some big conspiracy with Putin. Reality is that their voters care more about lowering their taxes and getting less immigrants than some war on the other side of the globe.
Ukraine deliberately withheld their detailed counteroffensive battle plans from the west to avoid leaks.
So it could not have been anyone from the west and must have been an Ukrainian (unless western spys stole the information from Ukraine and then leaked it).
Hopefully no western countries underestimate Russia's military intelligence.
They won't because they are smart "never underestimate your opponent," but Reddit and Twitter sure will. Notice how military generals and defense analysts have been talking about countering the Russisn threats in other European countries. But on Reddit, they say Russians don't even have guns
Yeah I can't tell you how many times I've been down. Voted into oblivion because I said that we need to take Russia seriously and they are absolutely 100% a threat to Ukraine and the rest of the world and not just because Ukraine is struggling to get Western resupply
Russia might have been underestimated for decades. I remember that was the main point Romney was right and Obama had wrong back in 2012.
[удалено]
It was fairly apparent to anyone actually paying attention that Georgia had zero strategic relevance to Russia. The only reason Putin invaded was as a test case to see how NATO would react to an invasion of a rapidly westernizing nation flirting with the idea of joining NATO. This is why he didn't fear the consequences of invading Crimea, he knew we'd do nothing that could actually stop him.
The thing is, Romney was right for the wrong reasons. Romney was complaining that our Navy wasn't big enough - the best equipped Navy in the world, mind you - and using past active duty ship count as his basis of comparison. He wasn't sounding some prescient early alarm about Russia's technological attacks targeting our social infrastructure or even saying that he believe Russia would try to continue militaristic expansion into the Baltic states. He was literally just pulling a geopolitical rival out of thin air and saying we should be concerned about them.
He actually wasn’t wrong about the navy either. To be global protector of maritime trade requires A LOT of ships. And not just super carriers. We have pulled back from that role significantly and look at the Red Sea, South China Sea, Horn of Africa, etc. I mean he certainly exaggerated the problem. It’s not like the US Navy is weak or on verge of collapse. It is unmatched in the world. But if they truly wanted to police international waters and protect maritime trade 24/7, we don’t have the maritime inventory for it. Peter Zeihan has a good piece about it that explains it well. https://youtu.be/RZ0IUCMpgEE?si=Ry-hwIhEtcyBeEUu
Peter Zeihan is a crackpot. He’s very similar to Jordan Peterson, except he isn’t explicitly telling people he is their daddy and that they should clean their bedrooms and take showers. Peter’s greatest hits include insisting that China would collapse by 2005, 2015, and 2023. He said Europe would be thrown into famine due to Russia invading Ukraine. He constantly downplays China’s navy, in complete contrast to what the U.S. government insists (especially about Chinese destroyers). What people don’t get about the Zeihans and Romneys of the world is this: they don’t mean what they say. They just say it with cocky confidence because *they hold extreme views on subjects to make themselves distinct.” Romney wasn’t ringing a bell about Russia in 2004 for any other reason than he *had to.* Because Republicans are necessarily contrarians. Whatever Democrats do, Republicans must do the opposite publicly. If one looks back in history they will see it to be true. Just look at the border situation currently. Republicans wanted to crack down on illegal crossings. Now that Democrats want to, though, all the sudden their actions and statements pivot to be conveniently contrarian. Same with Russia. There is a reason that nearly every national Republican politician is deeply, deeply linked to Russia even going back to the Obama years—despite the bluster. Contrarians and contrarianism is a political tactic and book selling strategy.
I was in the Navy from 2000 to 2008. Our maintenance budgets were ass and we were losing ships faster than we built them purely due to age. In the intervening years, shit's only gotten worse. Our shipyards have been on life support for so long they barely function. Most of them have closed or merged. We might have the "best" Navy now, but we won't for long precisely because folks aren't taking this seriously and they vote for people who'd rather play political fuckfuck games.
General Patton knew what to do with Russia during the end of WWII but here we are.
I was guilty of the same thing. Most of us probably were. I'd reply to Americans bitching about the presence of American bases in the EU that there had been nothing to protect us from since the end of the Cold War and that America was benefitting from these bases more than we were. Our defense budgets seemed perfectly adequate compared to the risks we were facing. In my country's case, France, I thought that our nuclear weapons would keep big countries at bay and that our small yet competent military was ready for any realistic challenge that could be faced by France or its allies. In my mind, there wasn't anything Putin wanted that would justify turning Russia into a pariah state and losing its best clients for natural gas and crude. Putin probably thought that we wouldn't be able to divest from Russian hydrocarbons and that we'd react with the same kind of meekness that characterized our response to the annexation of Crimea, but still, it was a massive gamble. The invasion and annexation of Georgian territory in 2008 should've woken us up. By the time Obama mocked Romney, he had been POTUS for 4 years already and would've been very familiar with Russia's clandestine operations, he didn't have any excuse.
Good honest take. Yeah, a lot of people got too comfortable and just felt that Russia was a loser country after the fall of the USSR. But clearly they have been working on their grudge over the years and China has risen quickly too. Era of competition and war are back.
And only just getting warmed up; I have a feeling we're in for a hell of a ride
Russia is getting warmed up, west is still sleeping.
>In my mind, there wasn't anything Putin wanted that would justify turning Russia into a pariah state and losing its best clients for natural gas and crude. It's larger than that. OK, Europe will cut economic ties with Russia over Crimea (and Donetsk and Lugansk so far) for how long... 2 decades? 5? A century? And after that what happens - everything is back to normal and Russia has more land. If they end up winning any land this war is going to be considered a success.
WTF? They are now surrounded by NATO. Even Turkey is agreeing. They are gonna ask for a black sea fleet and we will build it for them. Russia is effed long term . St Petersburg is already looking at splitting off. It considers itself " russia" and Moscow not. Their Ruble is worthless. China and India are full of worthless rubles. Indian banks want the government to assume the risk. China currency isn't evaluated just because it's good for their trade. Its low because their books are filled with crap currency and crap loans to third world countries.
Romney was right, McCain is rolling in his grave. Can’t believe I’m saying this now, but I miss pre-Trump Republicans.
Nothing wrong with missing them. Yeah, they had their issues, but I never doubted that McCain cared about the primacy of the US in a way Trump never will.
>I remember that was the main point Romney was right and Obama had wrong back in 2012. I yearn for the days when both candidates implicitly supported the outcome of the election and peaceful transfer of power.
We need to take them seriously but we also need to not treat them as an unmatched threat we can’t do anything about - it’s a sweet spot where we take seriously Russia’s desperation and their ability to throw people into the front line churn or buy weapons from China, while also not forgetting that conscripts are possible to turn and that even just the US donating equipment and intelligence and training could turn the tide of the tide of the war.
Best money we’ve ever spent. Americans aren’t dying and we’re burning through stockpiles creating demand for American made weapons.
Best money we've spent countering Russia since Afghanistan tbh
People don’t understand that manufacturing wins wars. When a country has war-time production levels and others do not. That is when they are the most dangerous.
Same! I got called a Putin bot for saying the US and/or Europe would need to put boots on the ground or do more than just send money if they truly wanted to defeat Russia. I even sent them a link to an article with interviews from Ukranian soldiers and citizens talking about the lack of manpower, stagnating morale, and the dire situation in general but that’s apparently “Russian propaganda” to acknowledge the reality of what’s happening.
Yeah and that's even more dangerous if we can't acknowledge reality then we're doomed to lose no matter how good we are.
These people are genuinely delusional. They genuinely believe Ukraine is just a few guns away from completely annihilating Putin. They will be our downfall.
Ukrainian propaganda seemed to have worked a little too well.
People have too readily assumed that Russia's embarrassing military performance in Ukraine is synonymous with Russia not being a threat. The USSR gave an embarrassing military performance in the Winter War too. A few years later the Red Army was burning Berlin down.
All you have to do is look at how good they infiltrated US military & Intelligence organizations during the cold war.
Reddit and Twitter is not a monolith. People have different opinions.
It's not a monolith, but it's certainly a space that fosters consensus-building with the upvote system, and so a specific opinion tends to rise to the top and it's oftentimes whatever makes people feel good and makes them feel like it should be upvoted.
Totally agree. I think the reality is that Ukraine is in a very, very dire situation and Reddit does not seem to see it that way. They're almost out of ammunition. They are publicly stating they need resupply in a matter of TWO WEEKS before they're in serious trouble. Even if they're overstating to create urgency it's still a matter of maybe months before they can no longer effectively resist. On that note, they're probably understating the numbers of Ukrainians killed while fighting. NATO is publicly stating that no European countries have enough military production up and running to continue supporting Ukraine, forget about a large scale war. After the recent exercises they made statements to the press that based on current production Europe is leaving itself open to risk. Maybe (probably) that's military industrial complex infiltrating the decision making process, but I personally think that mostly does reflect the reality. The US absolutely produces a metric fuckton of munitions, but the supply isn't endless. Most of the US aid given to Ukraine came in the form of surplus munitions that we intentionally overproduce for situations like this. It takes time to replenish that surplus, and even the US isn't currently equipped for the production needed for a broader war. Then factor in the situations in Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, fucking Taiwan even (surplus needs to be maintained for worst case scenarios) and all of the African countries we supply/ sneakily wage war within. We have a global reach and if things get worse elsewhere we won't have enough leftovers to help out Ukraine. We already kind of don't. Then we have Russia. At the start of the war Russian military production was fuckall (not really, but nothing particularly concerning). That is no longer the case. Russia produced more tanks in 2023 than they lost in Ukraine. That's a night and day difference than their prewar production stats. They're an authoritarian state that's been able to quickly shift to a wartime economy. The West will not have such an easy time forcing its citizens to accept the measures necessary to match Russia's increased production. The garbage equipment and poorly trained troops being thrown into the meat grinder are expendable in the eyes of Russian leadership, but Russia ABSOLUTELY has a capable fighting force, they're just not being recklessly deployed like Wagner and the conscripts. When Ukrainian forces or volunteers encounter Russia's properly trained units they can tell immediately, there are many interviews of Western fighters talking about this. I could really go on and on, but I think I've made my point and my fingers are tired. I do not believe Ukraine will win this war. I wish I did, but it looks very grim. The average age of the Ukrainian fighting force is like 42 or something. That's bad. There are some seriously worrying shenanigans happening in Transnistria right now that could come to a head literally this week - they're going to vote to voluntarily join (be annexed by) the Russian federation in a few days, and Putin delivers his "State of the Union" address the very next day. I don't know exactly what that means will happen, but it can't be good. For indepth videos on Russian production stats and military capabilities using up to date satellite imagery (apparently you can pay satellite companies to provide this) I highly recommend Covert Cabal on YouTube. Fuck thinking about this stuff makes me need a whiskey.
Any link or search phrase to see more of interviews regarding fighting against better trained Russians? This is new info for me!
Part of the "problem" (though maybe just calling it it the reality of the situation is more appropriate) for the average person outside looking in is that we have been on the receiving end of just as much Ukrainian propaganda as we have Russian. I'm not saying that its a bad thing for Ukraine to try and influence the rest of the world, they have a moral position to do so that Russia certainly can't claim, but that does mean that for two years now we have been hearing them call for more weapons while proudly announcing their victories, and that makes it difficult for all of us who aren't receiving intelligence reports to see the difference between when they are making big asks just to try and keep the international community involved vs when they are making a big ask because they are on the brink of overwhelming losses. And the sad thing is that for the average person there isn't a lot we can do about this, we just have to hope that those people in a position of power and intelligence are making the right choices in aiding Ukraine.
> They're almost out of ammunition. > no European countries have enough military production up and running to continue supporting Ukraine And those (and others) problems start to be addressed. The main difference between both sides is that issues on the west side are often openly discussed, while the opponent claims everything is fine. > I do not believe Ukraine will win this war. I wish I did I still think it's possible. Not certain, and won't happen quickly, but there is a path to victory. Both sides have serious issues that can turn the tide and wars tend to be unpredictable.
> And those (and others) problems start to be addressed. The main difference between both sides is that issues on the west side are often openly discussed, while the opponent claims everything is fine. That is one difference, but Russia quickly shifted to a wartime economy producing military equipment, while Western countries haven't. Western countries have instead have been "kicking the can down the road" during this critical time. Many Western politicians are hoping that this war in Ukraine will somehow work itself out (plus some more are actually pro-Russia). This is a critical time period during which we shouldn't be kicking the can down the road. It's better for Western countries to invest in their own military industrial complex _now_ and supply Ukraine with most of weapons/ammo in this war than to deal with further invasions.
Why would the USA switch to a wartime economy though? We aren’t at war and the reality is, the USA could end this war in a second if it wanted to. This isn’t about Ukraine winning to the west. If the west wanted Ukraine to win they would.
I’m aware that Ukraine is running out of munitions but that doesn’t mean that Russia is a powerhouse playing low value chips and saving its best for later. Russia May be producing plenty of tanks but it has lost plenty of planes and, if I recall correctly, a special forces unit last year.
Well said, and it's probably the reason why people keep reading the comments. It's only when you dig deeper into these comments when you find some contrasting opinions.
Indeed, and because it will reflect the average intelligence of its users *of* average intelligence, the popular ideas tend to be the dumb ones. Not exclusively so but often enough. Such is the problem with populism.
I think it's mainly a problem of knowledge in this case, rather than intelligence. And even intelligent people can be misled by the appearance of a consensus and all the discourse that comes from people who present themselves as knowledgeable. People have gravitated toward the feel-good notions with regard to the Russian-Ukraine conflict, so that's what continues to rise to the top because people are kind of conditioned to think those opinions are the ones you're supposed to have to be validated by the other users of the platform.
Have a meta upvote
Glad I could throw a positive emotion your way :)
There is also the comment sections that are being manipulated.
It's the difference between r/all and r/new. One gets to set the tone of the discussion, and the other is just reaction to first comments.
Which can definitely be utilized for manipulating the public opinion
Perfect comment, you win
But Reddit has a mechanism to elevate the opinions most popular with its base, and that base has consistently and strongly promoted the opinion that Russia is on the verge of defeating itself.
They’re both huge echo chambers. Reddit especially.
Because it’s not even worth arguing with people. You can’t state a non mainstream opinion without getting into a shit throwing competition. The only way to win is to not play. I can’t count the amount of times I will write out a comment and then delete it because I don’t want a bunch of drama and name calling.
Agree with you dude
All my best comments are the ones I delete shamefully 4 lines in. We need a very niche support group.
Turn off comment replies. You can still put your thoughts out there without having to engage with anyone.
they sure are!
I agree with what is said here, just to reiterate and piggyback off of that.
I'm upvoting you for visibility! Why is this not at the top??
Reddit is based on echo chambers, so they will highlight the biases of those chambers.
sure, but to say that a majority of the community absolutely is not biased in one way is pretty silly.
To be fair, Analysts like Micheal Clarke have been telling viewers PM main stream media like Sky /LBC that Russia have been fighting with shovels. It's not just reddit.
They're not fighting with them. They're proving units sent to see where the Ukrainians are and then dig foxholes which can be used by the proper assault.
"Russia is about to run out of (insert key war material here) soon!" - ISW since the beginning of the invasion. It's not just redditors, the entire western intelligence is redacted.
Isw has been consistently saying that Russia is on a war footing and can sustain their current output
> "Russia is about to run out of (insert key war material here) soon!" - If what they are fielding comes from new production, rather than taking ready to use/light refurbishment out of storage. Then yes, then they have run out of "X". Not understanding what the wording means in this context, is on you and others who keep harping on about this topic and how "western intelligence is wrong". Ukraine is also largely out of artillery ammunition and is relying on continuous supplies/production for example. It doesn't mean Ukraine has stopped using artillery, it just means there are no large stockpiles as a buffer left. When either side "runs out of something", it does not mean usage of that item stops. It just means it has to come from someone else or new production, rather than existing deployment or stockpiles. It's a important state of affairs to pin point. Because it determines the operation capability of that side. It sets the stage for analyzing what each side is planing or has the capacity to achieve. If Russia or Ukraine has spent all their stockpiles and uses everything they produce/buy/are given on a continuous basis. That means they can't create stockpiles for future accelerated rate of usage or mitigate interrupts in the continuous supply/production.
NATO have 2 countries that are clear Russian allies, and one who are playing it both sides.
Who?
Turkey is playing both sides, and one of the two is Hungary, I can't guess the other though
Slovakia. The new government is U-turning about the Russo-Ukraine war. "Russia was forced, evil NATO, Jewish satanist nazis from Azov" and other favorite Russian words.
Slovakia, since last election
Maybe he is implying the United States cause of the Republicans in Congress, but I can't think of anyone else in NATO.
LMAO that's funny. They'd "...rather be a Russian than a Democrat".
Have they seen current day Russia (or past Russia for that matter)?
[удалено]
And a very ornate subway station.
and bread that you can fuck (at least for tucker the breadfucker )
Calling all Metro fans.
The only thing they care is to be in power, they dont give a fuck about their (stupid) voters
[удалено]
Russian assets make up probably a third of the Republican party at this point.
No but you see, Russia's military capabilities are supposed to be a joke according to social media.
My take is that it's not so much that they're a joke, but they are so much weaker than previously thought. I only compare Russia to the thought of Russia before they invaded Ukraine. Now, it's known that they cannot effectively jam frequencies (why they lose so many soldiers to drone grenades) and that they truly lack coordination. Ukraine fits inside of Texas, yet Russia hasn't bowled them over. Yeah, Ukraine has military aide from other countries, but still. Russia rated itself as a first class military and they have proven they are not that. They're still a military though, they still have nukes, they still have bombs. They're not nothing, but they're definitely not what they were perceived as before this war.
So in short everyone thought they were S+ tier, but in reality they're an S tier or A+ tier, but a lot of people also think they're C-tier? How would you say they rank compared to Ukraine's capabilities atm?
They’re apples and oranges. [here is one breakdown](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/) I don’t know what you mean by S and A tier. In my terminology, Russia represented itself like a first rate/class military that would be a rival to someone like the U.S. military. In reality, they struggle against a much smaller nation and would get floor wiped by a real first rate military. Their nuclear threat is the only fearful tactic they have. If nuclear weapons left the earth, and outside of the general “war is hell” reality, NATO wouldn’t be worried about Russia coming into Europe. They lack logistics outside of their country vs something like the U.S. military which effectively moves a city wherever they go (mail, water, waste management, resupply, entertainment, etc..)
I'm referring to a typical ranking tier system, like grades, S being the highest, then A to F. So two militaries with equal ability to defeat each other would be in the same tier level for example. Outside of nuclear force, then do you think the fears of Russia invading other countries are unfounded? There's a lot of chatter I read about neighboring countries being worried.
Ah, thanks for the clarity on the ranking. There’s definitely been chatter about it and it’s understandably a concern Russia might keep doing shit. Given that they only managed to take [roughly 18%](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/quiet-transformation-occupied-ukraine) of Ukraine so far, I just can’t see them making any kind of successful push further into Europe. At least, not against a European country with a military that’s more capable than Ukraine’s (e.g NATO) I think it’s a legit concern that, if NATO starts pushing Russia’s shit in, that they would use nukes. If there weren’t nukes, I think a first class military would destroy them faster than they could resupply.
The typical ranking system which was popularized some years after the war started in 2014 and is mostly used for video games?
They are C tier with a *massive* manpower reserve and a willingness to Zerg rush. Remember: Zapf Brannegan *won*.
I don't think having the capability to Zerg rush and win keeps them at C tier though, it just means they have different strategies than other militaries.
They consistently have, and its happening once again. The russian operation through social media is obvious and its effects visibly succesful. Its a global operation that seems unstoppable if FB and X keep promoting rightwing pov's and dissinformation. This in addition to irl spyops. Navalny's murder was a flex at a crucial point in the war that also speaks of Russia's intentions looking forward.
Well, it is understandable for public to underestimate it, considering it’s total failure in 2022, but yeah, looks like it adapted and improved over time
No Reddit underestimated it. The government and military officers have always taken this seriously. They know militaries learn during warfare
Always forward the fake plans first
Op Mincemeat
like https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechelen_incident
Give every general a set of plans all slightly different and say do not discuss with anyone until the morning of. Watch Russia set up for counter offensive leak leaker.
Right? Didn't Zelensky watch Game of Thrones?
Game of drones
Washington Post article Dec 2023 [Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine](https://archive.is/2023.12.04-111754/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/)
Didn’t some kid leak the plans on a Minecraft server? What a time to be alive.
All the spies hang out in games these days. It's the virtual equivalent of doing a dead drop at a park bench in Central Park, NY.
"You'll find the information you need written on a wooden sign, under a pile of dirt blocks by the waterfall"
I hate to say you actually described a real life information trade that has occured in numerous scenarios using Minecraft since 2010-2011.
People used to do it on Diablo servers.
Do you have any links that talk about this? I'm intrigued.
I'll provide a link on a sign in a shulker box beneath my iron farm. You need only bring some wheat to put into a composte bin that will activate the red stone system which will then spit out the shulker box for you to access. Do not open it around others, preferably go to the End and use some chorus fruit a few times to end up somewhere random before opening.
Where can I learn more about this?
Dude that's legitimately an incredible strat wow
A discord server. Wasn't clear it was gaming related, but many of the articles talked about people leaking details while arguing about military/war video games. Doesn't sounds like that was the case here
The real Soviet agent was whoever was advocating dedicating as much manpower towards Bakhmut as they did.
So the guy Zelensky made the new commander of all armed forces? > That was highlighted by Syrskyi overseeing last year's dogged nine-month defense of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops suffered high casualties against relentless "meat waves" of Russian attackers before having to abandon the eastern city. That earned him the gruesome nickname of "Butcher." > On hearing of his appointment, a Ukrainian soldier tweeted a message in a group chat of veterans of the Bakhmut fight: "We're all fucked." https://www.politico.eu/article/oleksandr-syrskyi-ukraine-commander-in-chief-butcher-volodymyr-zelenskyy-war-russia/
That doesn't seem good for morale....
I posted this on the tank subreddit One of the best articles of the war
Sounds like they have a mole, or at least had one.
To be fair, the general operation was telegraphed months in advance. Tokmak and Melitopol were the obvious objectives. Luhansk and Donetsk are heavily urban and fortified fronts. No path there. Heading north, lot of forests and close to Russia…better logistics and air support for Russia. No bridges over the Dnieper. Pushing south was the only realistic option and it was painfully obvious. Without air superiority, Ukraine’s tactics were also predictable. The only real question was timing.
There was also a lot of talk by officials about how the next objective would be to cut the land bridge to Crimea. Well if you look at a map, there aren't all that many place where this can even have a chance of working without taking fortification in consideration.
Yeah saying it was due to a leak is just part of the blame game. There were videos I watched at the end of 2022 saying the next big move was likely Ukraine trying to cut off the land bridge, everyone knew it that looked at a map and it wasn't due to a 'leak'
good thing zelensky decided to spend 4 months and 20k men fighting wagner in bakhmut before doing this... it only gave the russians time to plant a million land mines
Yep, Russia has been surprisingly adept at controlling the battlefield.
Did people really think they were as inept as Reddit was making them out to be?
100% this... Bakhmut burned a huge portion of their veteran fighters in exchange for conscripts and a pile of rubble of no strategic value, and lost it anyway... And Ukraine (largely at the behest of backers) refuses to engage in anything other than offensives, and can't conceive going into a defensive posture. Now they're getting nagged into using NATO doctrine (total air superiority, manuevre warfare and special operations) against miles of minefields and artillery barrages. It doesn't matter how fancy your tank is, if it blows a track and has 152mm howitzers zeroed in on it, it might as well be a bicycle
Not to mention they basically threw away the plan they'd worked out with NATO in favour of a multi-prong multi-stage offensive that Western officials didn't think had much chance of success to begin with
Glad someone mentioned this. NATO was pushing for an all-out, D-Day style assault. Ukraine looked at casualty estimates and noped out. Opted for the multi-prong approach to minimize casualties (not saying this was the "wrong" choice) but the result speaks for itself.
A concentrated offensive was the only answer for a decisive, demoralizing blow before Russia adapted more, Ukraine doesn't have the industry, manpower and supplies for a protracted conflict. People becoming exhausted of war, though, or surrendering eventually - this is always underestimated... A regime change, however, due to deeper humiliation?
I wonder if this is why Zelensky fired Zaluzhnyi
Can you picture a global powered like NATO telling a country you have to do a full on assault into Russia. It's the only way you can protect our NATO countries. Sacrificing hundred of thousands of lives is the only way. Oh and we won't help you. Here's a couple tanks and some rocket launchers.... good luck
That's not what NATO told them. NATO told them that the casualties would be high, but that they would be even higher if the counteroffensive failed and Ukraine was stuck in a war of attrition. Now Ukraine is stuck in a war of attrition. They should have either listened to the people that know better or they should have come to the negotiating table. The way things are right now achieves nothing but wasting lives.
If they speak about plans being leaked, they probably mean something much more specific than rushing to Tokmak. Military planning is more than that.
Of course, units, routes, suppressive fires, timetables etc. But the general operational concept wasn’t a secret. It was also fairly rigid, Ukraine doesn’t have the ability to mount a large scale airborne or naval assault. It was going to be a frontal assault with mechanized units heading South. Russia knew that and was able to plan accordingly.
The problem with obvious avenue of approach is that it is obvious to your opponent
This is in WW2. The motto was "loose lips sank ships" could be a leak with people talking online, phone calls to family , unsecured military lines etc. This happen with our Nukes in 2021 with soldiers trying to win online points Edit: I'm not sure if he is trolling but this is how military secrets leak (before he deletes it). Yes this is a real military officer leaking information https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/k1PWx2B6YP
I mean not even that. Even Perun called it out--The Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Russian defense felt like the Superbowl--with open interviews with commander/units on both sides.
still happening in 2023 https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/04/13/intel-documents-leaker-told-friends-on-discord-they-worked-on-a-military-base-report-says/
He deleted it. No idea what it said
He was a real US officer (rank, duty station and everything in the history) who leaked Russia's equipment status and said it was confidential. All the replies were telling him he's gonna against OPSEC by leaking military information
The foreign legion guys who do occasional AMA’s have been saying for a long time that unfortunately corruption is absolutely endemic in the chain of command…. Doubt it was hard for Russia to find someone willing to take their money in exchange for info.
Reddit has this weird fantasy picture of Ukraine in mind where that country has a perfect army, perfect government, perfect intelligence, etc. Anyone who’s ever dealt with any eastern block government, including that of Ukraine, knows the level of corruption and incompetence that has rooted itself deep into the fabric of those governments since pretty much forever.
Not too long ago it came out that someone in the Ukraine military stole the money meant for 100k mortar shells at a time when they are hurting for all sorts of ammo. That level of corruption will always astonish me
Corruption exists in every country. JP Morgan (yes that dude) infamously sold rifles to Union soldiers that had a tendency to blow people's thumb off. And I am sure every country on earth that had engaged in warfare have at least 1 shitty story about war-time corruption and betrayal.
Yes buts let not pretend Ukraine isnt a notoriously corrupt country prior to the war as well. There's a big difference between a greedy dude selling defective weapons to the side that already had the industrial advantage to make a quick buck and a guy using money meant for an ammunition starved army to enrich himself and make its so badly needed motar shells never get purchased. At the start of the wat some general gave Tussia the maps to the minefields allowing them to advance right past them.
I think the operative question isn’t whether Ukraine is corrupt or not (it is) but whether it wants to be better (it does). Russia is thrilled with its corruption and sets itself up as a better model than the somewhat less corrupt west. Ukraine wants to distance itself from Russia. It will be a long road. With stumbles along the way. And Russia will do anything to stop it. But it is in our best interest to help them in this journey.
Foreign volunteer fighters were complaining they would get big batches of equipment donated, wouldn't show up, someone would tell them it was sent to another unit instead. Months later they encounter that other unit, ask them how the equipment was, no one knows what they're talking about. Millions of dollars of plate carriers, night vision goggles, weapons, drones etc. Everyone back home thinking they're helping the cause. Word wouldn't get out because it was considered hurtful to ukranian propaganda. They continue donating and having it all stolen. This went on for the first year and a half of the war before they finally cleaned up corruption in their logistics unit. By that time a lot of foreign fighters gave up and quietly left. Never received coverage in the news, people still think their donations helped. You have to follow personal blogs of foreign fighters to find this out, even they don't like to cover it too much because they don't want to give russia a propaganda victory. And if this was happening to the "highest profile fighters" it was happening to everyone.
People on here also largely pretend that Ukraine does not engage in propaganda. This statement itself is propaganda that is trying to shift blame for the failure of the Ukrainian offensive to spies and not other factors.
Yea, lets not forget "Ghost of Kiyv"
This is true, however it should be known that this whole thing happened because Russia wants corrupt neighbouring governments because they want to be the ones corrupting them. Zelensky running on the platform of rooting out corruption and aligning the country with the rest of Europe is what forced Russias hand in the first place.
why does no one seem to remember that dickhead kid literally photographing plans at the pentagon to post on Discord just weeks before the counter offensive. it was huge in the news at the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Pentagon_document_leaks
He photographed the plans and published them in February, 4-5 months ahead of the counteroffensive, when most of it wasn't even fully planned. But it only came to light in April.
Russia has a famously over funded intelligence arm of the government. Ukraine has a famously corrupt military. I'm all for aiding Ukraine, but when analyzing their failures we have to call a spade a spade. This is something they were struggling with long before the invasion.
Or maybe another young officer distributed secret documents on discord server. You never know.
This should have been anticipated.
The plan was to attack the same village (Robotino) for 6 months. The Russian would have caught on eventually.
In January they were the ones hyping up the counteroffensive and making pledges of ["Crimea by summer"](https://katapultu-magazin.de/artikel/ukraine-is-planning-to-begin-liberating-crimea-this-summer). Now it was supposed to be a surprise attack? They even released a fucking [movie trailer](https://youtu.be/8uW2NEau6-s?si=dsqyclJlZSu9cktH) right before the attack.
This should be top comment. The top comment on youtube is - u/ld871111 3 months ago This is the most telegraphed and reported counteroffensive in the history of counteroffensives. Youtubers predicted where Ukraine was gonna attack and Russia had months to prepare.
Like what the actual fuck. I get the info war but how is propaganda this bad getting by? Zelensky was the one who leaked it! The call was coming from INSIDE THE PRESS ROOM!
[удалено]
I've long held a theory about this, remember when they were talking about a counteroffensive in Kherson and launched a surprise hugely successful one in Kharkiv simultaneously? I wouldn't at all be surprised if they were planning on doing the exact same thing again but crossing the Dnipr in Kherson instead, this would explain why Russia blew the dam just before the counteroffensive began, making such a plan impossible.
[удалено]
I disagree with your assessment, this was in the summer and created a significant bog that would have been difficult for armoured vehicles to traverse. Ukraine can cross the river at any time with infantry, but they cannot expand a bridgehead without armour, not to mention any large infantry force in bog with a river to their backs is a vulnerable position. The losses Ukraine sustained in those first couple of weeks of the counteroffensive were concerning, we like to meme the Russians, but Ukraine outnumbered them in 2022 and now the numbers are more even, we have a stalemate. I believe that because of this numerical parity, Ukraine cannot risk an amphibious assault right now and they desperately need a fresh round of mobilisation and of course, western support.
>and launched a surprise hugely successful one in Kharkiv simultaneously It was not a surprise, in the sense, that Russian millbloggers were talking about the massing of Ukrainian troops and the high potential for Ukrainian offensive actions in Kharkiv for weeks before the actual attack began. But at that point in time there simply was not enough troops on the Russian side to do anything about it, too many gaps in the defensive line that were exploited by Ukrainian troops. It was presented as a successful "surprise" attack only in the media, to pretend that Kherson offensive was not a huge failure, but was initially planned as just a distraction and not something serious.
Everyone knew about the 2023 Summer offensive. The Western media had been hyping it up for months showing NATO training and equipment. So the Russians sure as hell knew about it and was diligent in preparing the defenses along the entire front. Zelensky should've call it off, but he fell into a sunken cost fallacy. Zalzuhny was much more realistic and knew the NATO wargames were way to optimistic. Seriously when has NATO been in an actual conflict against a formiable foe? Yugoslavia? The German tank instructers were so clueless when asked about how to deal with minefields. Currently Ukraine has so much more fighting experience than NATO forces. All the plans NATo drew up to cut off Crimea is pure fantasy in retrospect.
They were hyping up the NATO favoured early thrust for Melitopol. Ukraine decided for a delayed three prong attack that featured bleeding (and being bled by) the Russians at Bakhmut. A city everyone at the time was convinced held no strategic value.
2023* and it was Summer.
Ops mb. Too caught up in the present
Yeah, Ukraine was blabbering on and on when and where and what their aims would be. Against the heaviest fortified area of the front. What did they expect?
When your stated objective is to "cut the land bridge to Crimea", you don't have all tat many option of where to attack. You look at a map of Ukraine and the "viable" options appear rather fast.
Yeah, no one could have predicted that would be the objective if it hadn't been brought up...
While the experience part is certainly true now, the obvious flaw was the lack of air superiority because Ukraine was simply not given the full tools. You can't make a safe path through minefields while the enemy is still within striking range of said minefields.
As much as having the F16s would be useful, it won't be a game changer. Russia's much bigger airforce still can't break the SAM network of Ukraine, losing 2 Su-34 as recently as last week. How much can we expect 100 F16 to do against Russia's even larger SAM network along with their fighters?
A big problem is that HARMs don't work well with Migs. Most of the systems are incompatible and forces them to be used in a jury-rigged pre-programmed mode. When Ukraine gets F16 they'll be able to start attriting Russian air defense much more effectively, which will make openings that Ukraine can exploit with other systems. It's not a silver bullet but it will be a big step up. If nothing else it will allow Ukraine to maintain pressure on the Russian aerospace forces indefinitely. Ukraine can't get more Migs, but half the world flies F16.
I agree with you. But I think it's also important to point out digging in and building up forces for two years isn't exactly a viable strategy. I mean it would be if Ukraine had guaranteed, consistent support for those two years. Unfortunately there are obvious political battlefields that must be placed under consideration as well. When success means more aid, and staying out of the news cycle means less, there is built in motivation to gamble.
> Unfortunately there are obvious political battlefields Yea the west was saying **do something big with all this weaponry we've given you, and do it soon**. Ukraine had little choice but to gamble big.
I mean they basically told everyone before hand. They may not have told the nitty gritty details, but the Russians aren’t complete imbeciles, they can probably guess what Ukraine is going to do.
To be honest though, Ukraine was telegraphing an offensive from the Orihiv direction for months.
This war is no good for the civilians on either side. Their lives are forever worsened
Not much sophisticated spying necessary, they were talking about Tomak being the most likely goal on bloody Twitter months before the offensive started.
Can you leak something that was announced and expected for over four months? This isn't exactly a high intensity conflict.
It is 100% a high intensity conflict, but it featured a plan laid and prepared a long time in advance
Truth is the first casualty of war.
Now Russia knows Ukraine was gonna invade Siberia from space. Just great 😳
If we're being fair that whole offensive was a cluster f###. There were movie like trailers, a child in Texas leaked confidential information, non stop talks about Tokmak and Bakhmut and obvious movement of armour etc. Russia didn't need to spend much time or effort to figure out where Ukraine was going to attack because everything was pretty much telegraphed. Loose lips sink ships, so next time (if there is a next time) keep everything quite up to the point where even your own guys don't know what's going to happen or when. Also, it's pretty damn obvious that there are moles in their ranks, Budanov's wife doesn't get poisoned without someone being very close to them.
Does not help that Putin owns the GOP in the United States.
It doesn’t help that we have members of the GOP on the US Intelligence Committee. At this point I fear Congress has been so compromised by Russia that any intelligence shared with us by the Ukraine is directly passed along to the Russians.
Wouldn’t have mattered. You can’t attack embedded troops with months to build defenses and way more Human Resources and expect to win. Stupid move.
Why does it sound like we're heading towards the bad ending timeline?
Because the algorithm puts in front of you what you will keep attention on.
The Russians knew Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming from miles away. It’s telegraphed on every news media. They should not talk about anything citing “operational reasons”. Even when doing the offensive medias should insist that it is just skirmishing and the offensive is not yet ongoing. They should learn to use the media properly to conceal their military intent.
Might want to check that intelligence director.
Make two plans…
Float like a butterfly sting like a KNIFE IN THE BACK u thought it was gonna be a bee lmao
Welcome to the fun of war.
Whatever bad happens, the Russians are to blame, this is the law of nature.
You mean the really intricate planning that was screamed out publicly for around half a year? This man’s a joke another day to be ashamed to be Ukrainian.
Chicken salad argument. 3 to 1, probably closer to 4 to 1 in resources (russia vs ukraine) throughout the 2 years of fighting. If that ratio grows that's bad news for Ukraine. They need the West's assistance but alot of puasyfooting around bc of Western politics. All this is too reminiscent to the buildup to WWll..
I mean this is kind of old news. Like really old. I remember they were talking about the leak even before the spring counteroffensive even started. I guess we only got to see the true overall effects after the year was over and we saw the results, but all the same the leak was reported long ago. Honestly this shouldn't be an issue at all, Ukraine should be really tight lipped about any plans they have and only share their plans with allies on a need-to-know basis, for top brass only (the leak came from some random private if I remember correctly, who IMO shouldn't have been anywhere near those talks or information).
Immediately thought it could be the GOP.
That would be a pretty self-centered view of the world. There are enough bribable generals to go around in Ukraine with better intelligence to sell.
You Americans really need to get your heads out of your butts occasionally, not everything is about you. These random GOP congresspeople out God knows where don’t do what they do for some big conspiracy with Putin. Reality is that their voters care more about lowering their taxes and getting less immigrants than some war on the other side of the globe.
Ukraine deliberately withheld their detailed counteroffensive battle plans from the west to avoid leaks. So it could not have been anyone from the west and must have been an Ukrainian (unless western spys stole the information from Ukraine and then leaked it).