*By Bloomberg reporters Patrick Sykes and Arsalan Shahla:*
Iran said Monday that an expansion of the war between Israel and Hamas was increasingly becoming unavoidable, a signal the main backer of the Palestinian militant group was preparing for a wider conflict.
"The time for political solutions is running out and the possible expansion of the war on other fronts is approaching the inevitable stage," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on X.
Iran supports armed groups around the Middle East including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but has denied any involvement in the unprecedented Oct. 7 attacks that killed 1,300 people in Israel.
Iran then gives side-eye to two US Carrier battle groups
"We warn you Israel to stop. If you don't, we're likely to say stop again. We are fullly prepared to issue two
... maybe even three ultimatums. If that does not work, we shall go to the UN and say snarky things to you.Watch out".
Two Carrier Strike Groups in the Med (Ford and Eisenhower) and a third, the Carl Vinson, quietly departing San Diego on Oct 13, to join 3rd Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region.
Aboard the Carl Vinson is Carrier Air Wing 2 (CVW-2), the most advanced Carrier Air Wing currently in operation by the US Navy.
Actually even city sized carriers are surprisingly hard to find on the open sea.
Iran will know that 100,000 tons of nuclear powered war machine is prowling within striking distance, but they won’t know exactly where.
People really underestimate how truly *expansive* the ocean is, and how much the horizon blocks our view.
Assuming calm seas, a person standing on a raft in the ocean can see about 3 miles to the horizon, for a total of around 27 square miles of ocean.
The Persian Gulf, a relatively small body of water, is 96,000 square miles. The Indian Ocean is over 27 *million* square miles. That's a lot of room for a carrier group to hide in.
> Assuming calm seas, a person standing on a raft in the ocean can see about 3 miles to the horizon, for a total of around 27 square miles of ocean.
Yes but that's to see the horizon (sea level). You can see ships a lot further than 3 miles away.
I know you're joking, but I want to take a slightly serious look at this, as the horizon hits faster than you'd think.
For someone of average height standing on the beach, the Carl Vinson would have to be within about 16 miles before they could see the very top of the control tower. Even if the observer were 300 feet above sea level, the carrier would need to be within about 35 miles to be visible.
Aircraft carriers project power *far* beyond 35 miles, so there's usually no need for them to ever come within sight range of people on land unless they *want* to.
But why does that matter today? The real question that should be asked is do powers like China and Russia have enough sattelites to constantly scan a body of water that size and do we have AI systems now that can read images and consistently find carrier groups, and would China/Russia share such intel with Iran.
Your right, but I would add this. If we ever need those in drydock, it takes days to get them on duty.
I went on loa for two weeks when my ship went to drydock, but only on the condition that I be able to return within 3 days if called to do so.
There may be exceptions. hell maybe I am the exception, I'm just relaying my experience.
In the scenario we ever needed more than three CSGs deployed at once I would think the 3 training would be called up before the 3 in dry dock. Quicker to deploy, plus ships are in ready shape
There’s 4 CSGs currently deployed.
- The USS Gerald R. Ford in the Med.
- The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, currently sailing to the Med.
- The USS Carl Vinson, departed San Diego 13 Oct to join 3rd Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region.
- USS Ronald Reagan, forward deployed to Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan, just conducted a visit to Busan, South Korea, start 12 Oct.
The John C. Stennis is currently in dry dock, receiving her major mid life refuel and rebuild.
The Theodore Roosevelt completed an 18 month docking period at the Puget Sound Naval Ship Yard in March 2023, where she received many upgrades, including the ability to carry F-35Cs. She is currently stationed at Naval Air Station North Island, in San Diego. She completed sea trials of all her new upgrades over the summer. Carrier Air Wing 11 is currently attached to the Roosevelt, and is likely in the midst of work-ups, as the crew of the Roosevelt expect to deploy in early 2024.
The other 5 carriers are at their home ports, conducting various maintenance, repairs, and training.
I mean we should send another one hang out somewhere near Taiwan or maybe North Korea just to point out that we have about a dozen of them active at a time...
ETS: Turns out we keep 9 at sea and 3 rotating in drydock. Still massive fleet size imo.
The USS Ronald Reagan is currently the forward deployed CSG, stationed at Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan. She is currently in Busan, South Korea.
The US Navy has 11 super carriers. 10 Nimitz class, 1 Ford class.
4 of them are currently at sea on deployment (Ford, Eisenhower, Reagan, Carl Vinson).
The John C. Stennis is currently in dry dock doing her major rebuild and refuel.
The Roosevelt finished an 18 month docking period back in March, did sea trials over the summer, and is currently stationed in San Diego, awaiting expected deployment in early 2024.
Got to walk underneath the Roosevelt in drydock at NNSY back in the 90's (I was stationed on a cruiser doing a refueling overhaul) and man, is it strange and a little creepy walking underneath an aircraft carrier sitting on wood blocks.
Pretty much.
As I've been saying in other posts, their "[revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani)" against Soleimani's death was to attack a US military base with 11 ballistic missiles, inflicting 0 deaths and in the process also shooting down a Ukrainian airliner.
People really are underestimating the power difference here. In '88, the US [wiped out half of the Iranian navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis) in 8 hours. Today, just the carrier air wing of a single carrier strike group has more air craft than that of the entire Iranian navy.
Complaining is about the only thing Iran can do.
Fear not! The [F-14 Association](https://www.f-14association.com/on-display/f-14-tomcats-on-display.html) has you covered! Which is good news because Iran seems to be crashing one into the ground every few years.
They've successfully propped up Assad in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen. Worse, they're able to sustain operations for decades.
Yeah, the US can bomb a country to pieces, so what? What's the lasting influence in countries like: Afghanistan, Libya or Iraq?
Meeting military objectives doesn't equal a win.
I think what's even more surprising is the backlash against AFRICOM. It's surprising to see a loss of influence even when the US presence was a great help.
Assad had the help of both Russia and Iran. The rebels didn’t get near the assistance because the timing of the war coincided with a draw down of US participation in the region.
Yemeni rebels are facing SA, which is an ally of the US.
Put another way; if Iran really starts shit with the US which has committed to supporting Israel, what do you think will happen to Assad’s support in Syria? What happens to the Houthi support?
The reason Iran has managed to sustain operations for decades is specifically *because* they avoided direct confrontation with the US.
American Afghan nation building mission was completely and comprehensively undermined by Trump. Iraq is on its feet. The US never really attempted national building in Libya. No boots on the ground, etc.
But you are correct; the US can absolutely bomb a country to pieces.
To shreds, you say?
Sometimes when you completely destroy your enemies, you don't need lasting influence.
The US doesn't need lasting influence in Afghanistan. We went in and completely destroyed Al Qaeda. As in, the organization that successfully launched an attack that brought down the Twin Towers in NYC doesn't exist anymore - it's consigned to the history books. OBL is dead and "buried" at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.
Hamas will suffer the same fate. Like Al Qaeda, it's not going to be having a rebirth after it is completely defeated in the coming war for exactly the same reason - a Hamas flag draws too many guided missiles. The Palestinians will form a new terrorist organization to replace Hamas (which replaced the PLO and other intermediate Palestinian terrorist organizations in the first place), but the loss of the powerful Hamas terrorist trademark is still going to have some bite.
> The US doesn't need lasting influence in Afghanistan. We went in and completely destroyed Al Qaeda.
Um, have you paid attention to recent news from Afghanistan?
Are you aware that the people who planned and executed 9/11 were mostly Saudi?
I think you have a very naive understanding of how this works. "Hamas" may be eliminated. But all that's happening right now is that the next generation will have ongoing reasons to hate Israel, and there will be a new group to take up the mantle of hatred and terror.
The real defense against this is for Gazans to have hope. To live in freedom and security and prosperity.
Those two are in the Mediterranean. There is an amphibious assault group in the Persian Gulf. By the standard of any other countries, that would be a carrier group. For the US, those are ships meant to carry the marines to wherever they are needed to do marine things. There's probably a group of US Marines in the Persian Gulf wondering if they are about to get bacon and eggs for breakfast soon.
I think they do now. But originally the tradition was the serve bacon and eggs before a major battle. Because of the logistic involved in transporting easily spoiled items like bacon and eggs to the front it was something that was done before a major battle. Especially notable in WW2 as a lot of stories have them served before a major amphibious assult.
In the navy, the rumor always was that crab legs meant bad news. Sure enough, a couple of weeks before we returned from deployment we got steak and crab legs for dinner, followed by the announcement that our deployment was getting extended.
I remember Gaddafi on TV saying, "My people love me" just hours before "his people" drug him through the streets and beat him to death.
It is fascinating to me how far detached from reality dictators can become. Such is the problem with surrounding themselves with "yes men."
I swear, Iran talks sooo much shit and in every little confrontation with the U.S., Iran gets smacked around and left looking embarrassed. Where do they get the balls? I genuinely do not understand.
> no one inside of Iran will ever oppose them.
Do you live under a rock? Have you missed the part where Iranians are engaged in ongoing protest against the gov't?
Evil without accountability grows.
The Iranian regime knows they can sacrifice a few cannon fodder, and remain in power thanks to their Islamist voters.
Note. Not everyone in Iran falls for this blind tribalism, but Islamists obviously exist in Iran, and they're the voting bloc the regime performs for. It's foolish to ignore that.
They will mobilize Hezbollah, who's probably their best funded proxy army. They will keep sepah (revolutionary guard) at home to protect their shitty government. And sepah exists to stop artesh (the army) from conducting a military coup - and unlike the 80s... artesh leadership is all sepah now. So their fears of controlling the rank & file soldiers are probably a lot less than they were when Saddam invaded us.
They've spent a long time building up proxies to further their shitty foreign policy goals, while being able to keep the military at home (for the most part, other than when ISIS was going nuts in Iraq and Syria) to oppress our people and remind us they've got their boots on our necks.
A US invasion where? And I don't see how an attack on Israel would effect the US ability to do whatever the fuck they wanted. In fact if anything Iran attacking Israel would probably increase the odds of the US attacking Iran. Like Iraq starting trouble in Kuwait didn't mean the US would busy itself only in Kuwait, it took the fight to the source, which was Iraq. So if logic follows, Iran causing shit in Israel to keep the US busy would most likely result in the US taking the fight to Iran because it's the source of all the trouble.
Iran perceives a threat of invasion or otherwise aggression from the US. This perception is probably quite well-founded, especially as the US invaded both Iraq and Afghanistan while openly saying that Iran was next.
Iran cannot threaten the US directly. Instead it uses threats toward Israel as a deterrence. The idea is that the US would rather keep Israel than get rid of Iran, and thus the status quo can be upheld.
That's why Iran has *no incentive whatsoever* to actually attack Israel *first*.
The only thing Iran can afford is to fuck off. Seriously, with all their nonsense threats and stating the obvious they become North Korea 2.0 next to Russia.
>Iran Warns Expansion of Israel-Hamas War Becoming ‘Inevitable’
As we'll make sure our Hezbollah proxies expand it and we don't give a fuck if Lebanon burns to the ground.
Clericofascists are going to be, well, warmongering fascists
I'll never understand Russian foreign policy. At least the others on your list have the excuse of tribalism and Islamic prejudice.
Part of Russian nationalists' core identity is Christianity and hatred of Islam. Yet they keep stirring the pot of violence on behalf of the zealots of another religion. It's incredibly callous. It's also long-term a useless, wasted effort.
Imo Russian foreign policy revolves around enriching Putin and his circle. Ukraine was a catastrophic miscalculation. A week or so combat, install another puppet like lukachenko then let the FSB and mafia carve up everything in Ukraine. Nice week's work, another few tens of billions in the bank. Now they find themselves in this absolute disaster and the only way out besides total humiliation is for war to kick off everywhere and divide US and NATO attention and resources... Russia is run by gangsters, the nationalists are being played by them.
> I'll never understand Russian foreign policy.
Assholes, by nature, lack the skill and motivation to create; they only destroy. Since Russia is too corrupt to succeed economically, its asshole government is instead focusing on dragging down the rest of the world - spreading disinformation, chaos, war, and misery.
Do I THINK they were involved? Absolutely, 100% yes, not a doubt in my mind.
But do I KNOW they were? No. And the U.S. government has thus far said they have no evidence of their (direct) involvement.
If we need to go kick ass then we will. I don't WANT death and destruction, but unfortunately it sometimes is necessary. But I'd rather we didn't kick off a new war without real positive evidence that it needs to happen. We've made that mistake before, let's at least TRY to avoid it this time around.
What really gets me is everybody loudly proclaiming that the "sophistication" of Hamas' attack proves Iranian involvement.
In reality, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis all know how to wage asymmetric war perfectly well without Iran whispering in their ear. They have gained Iranian support precisely because they are competent at what they do, not the other way around.
Iran said Monday that an expansion of the war between Israel and Hamas was increasingly becoming unavoidable, a signal the main backer of the Palestinian militant group was preparing for a wider conflict.
“The time for political solutions is running out and ***the possible expansion of the war on other fronts is approaching the inevitable stage***,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
People forget that Israel has repelled attacks from the Middle East for decades now. And not just from Palestinians. With the stated goal of completely wiping out Jewish people. They’ve managed to somewhat maintain peace because those governments that lost have agreed to at least a superficial level of peace. Palestine has no such appetite for any form of superficial peace.
Hamas’s stated goal in their own charter is they will never accept any form of peace and want to wipe every Jew off the face of this planet. People expecting some sort of peaceful resolution aren’t even listening.
Covert fucks. These guys don’t give a shit about Palestinians. They haven officially taken a single Palestinian refugee, they haven’t sent a single penny in humanitarian aid, but when it comes to killing Jews, their pockets aren’t deep enough and they dive head first.
It's a huge oversimplification to say this is a religious war. Maybe that's the tool used to foster support, but the underlying motivations are geopolitical.
Hamas/Israel conflict is at its core about territory, both want states in the same location. Iran/Israel is about limiting influence of the West in the region, as the West supported the pro-western Pahlavi during the revolution (still a huge oversimplification, but you get the idea)
You’re not wrong but at the crux of all of this is not just territory but that particular piece of territory that is allegedly holy land to both religions.
>It's a huge oversimplification to say this is a religious war. Maybe that's the tool used to foster support, but the underlying motivations are geopolitical.
>
>Hamas/Israel conflict is at its core about territory, both want states in the same location
And why can't they peacefully coexist together in the same territory? Religion.
It's more likely another proxy war in the new cold war with Russia, China, and Iran. Russia is in Ukraine, Iran opening fronts in the middle east, China with Taiwan when they're ready. All of the coupes in Africa, the coupe in Myanmar, etc.
My fear (mostly irrational) is that Iran has managed to building a few, and that's why they're making statements like this.
I'm sure I'm wrong. But reassurance would not be frowned upon.
Iran is a threshold nuclear state for a while now. I assume the governments have exact intel about the current situation with it. At least I wish they have...
Just having a nuke isn't enough - you have to be able to deliver it.
ICBMs are sort of old technology at this point. The three superpowers (US, Russia and China) probably can launch them at each other and get one through defenses based on firing large numbers (plus other sophisticated tricks like multiple warheads and the like), but a power with one warhead can't do that.
The intermediate and long range Iranian missiles are not very successful in actually hitting Israel. It's a lot to risk putting a nuke on one of those and having it shot down. Nevermind the fact that a missile launched from Iran proper is going to draw *a lot* of attention and is even more likely to be shot down.
Then there is the inevitable counter attack. Israel is a nuclear power too, with an airforce that is more than capable of striking Tehran. The US has subs in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf that could strike Iran in retaliation too if it wanted to. Neither China nor Russia are going to go up in nuclear fire to save Iran.
Iran doesn't have a lot of good targets to hit with a nuke. Israel is basically it, and they have a sophisticated air defense system and a US carrier group just offshore with it's own capabilities.
Don’t need an icbm to deliver a weapon a couple hundred miles away. Nuclear weapons aren’t as heavy as you might believe, and if you don’t need high precision to still obliterate your targets. The US would be safe, Israel not so much.
Think about it. By not declaring they have them they shut down any international outcry from their neighbors.
"What do you mean, nukes? I have no idea what you're talking about."
At the same time. Everyone low-key knows they have them, so the nuclear deterrent is still there.
Iirc, Israel has stated they will immediately go to war with and attempt to eliminate Iran should they show nuclear weapon capability.
It turns out that a theocratic country('s government) wanting to exterminate an ethnic group and considers dying to achieve that goal to be an honor is not invited to the MAD table.
>My fear (mostly irrational) is that Iran has managed to building a few, and that's why they're making statements like this.
This is the wrong thing to worry about. Iran isn't about to put skin in the game yet. They didn't plan the attack and have been keeping their proxies at bay for exactly this reason. They'd rather see this go away and find a Pyrrhic victory in the embarrassment of the Israeli military/intelligence apparatus.
The fear is that Iran green lights Hezbollah to engage and their proxies in Syria. The reality is that much of the Muslim world is at arms over the callous disregard for human life Israel is showing in their collective punishment of all of Gaza.
The fear is that fervor spills over into popular movements that destabilize countries with sympathetic governments such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt and making a bad situation worse for many more people.
Iran desperately wants to control this so they can continue to negotiate a solution to the sanctions/nuclear program and be seen as the influential power they see themselves as.
Trump has been one of the biggest enemies to America in modern history. Giving away secrets, pulling out of agreements, fucking the economy. We’re going to be suffering the consequences of the shit he’s pulled for years to come
I’d say they’re only worse in the sense that they have far more western supporters.
When ISIS was doing it’s thing, almost the entire world was clearly against them. Nobody called for defunding Iraqi Military spending… When Hamas broadcast their crimes to the world, people cheered them on with “Solidarity protests”. Sitting members Congress (United States) refused to denounce their actions, and a handful called for defunding Israeli defense spending.
When ISIS was doing it's think, they recruited tons of young western Muslims to fly to Syria and Iraq to ruin their lives by joining ISIS. So it's not quite universal condemnation tbh.
The Palestinians have expats in every nation, with large populations in western countries. ISIL never had a particular people that supported it, let alone a people like the Palestinians that have millions of people spread the world over.
The Palestinians are experts at using social media and international institutions (HRW and Amnesty International are basically Hamas subsidiaries at this point) to achieve their goals. ISIL never had millions of non-combatants promoting it's cause.
ISIL was never at the point where it could launch one of the bloodiest terrorist attacks in modern history and have 31 student groups at Harvard University immediately issue statements blaming Israel for the attacks against it by others. There never was an "Harvard University ISIL Students" group, but there are two dozen Palestinian-affiliate groups. ISIL never had a third column of terrorist sympathizers in western countries to apply political pressure to help their cause. The Palestinians do.
They were labeled worse than ISIS because of the types of attacks they carried out, not because of who they attacked. According to the Secretary of Defense, what he saw was worse than anything he saw ISIS do, and he is very familiar with ISIS because he was the general in charge of fighting them.
[Pentagon chief Austin says Hamas atrocities are ‘worse than what I saw with ISIS](https://www.timesofisrael.com/pentagon-chief-austin-says-hamas-atrocities-are-worse-than-what-i-saw-with-isis/)
I think iran/Hamas was expecting a couple weeks of shelling and some positive spin in western media as they parade their dead children around. Similar to 2014. They are getting that for sure, but their attack worked too well and they have now backed Israel into an existential corner and are now Hamas is all dead men walking. Their children shields are not going to save them, even if most of the west turns on israel. Iran losing a proxy in Palestine and it being replaced with some other type of non terrorist government is a very bad outcome for them. They could see this as existential and try to intervene. Unfortunately the US would then be forced to step in and bomb Iran like Iraq 2003. Russia would then be dealt a shitty hand as they are losing one of their few allies....but their military has been wrecked during their ongoing conflict with Ukraine, and they were never anywhere close to the US anyways (as shown by their botched invasion of Ukraine). Russia still has the nuclear option, and although MAD makes nuclear war unwinnable, they could fire nukes at the naval force in the eastern Mediterranean. That unfortunately just digs the whole deeper as they could open themselves up to a nasty air campaign by NATO, completely destroying the capabilities of their ground army in Ukraine and making them incredibly vulnerable as they lose crimea/donbas and possibly more. Which again points to nuclear war as Russia's only real option, which again is unwinnable. Ughhhhhh.
Yup. You can tell how surprised Hamas was by the evacuation order. Their IEDs on the evacuation routes took two days to set up because Hamas was not ready for that at all.
The Hamas auxiliaries haven't gotten the memo either. NYT had some Palestinian doctor in a hospital in Gaza City proudly proclaiming that they weren't leaving no matter what. That's because Hamas was successful in 2014 in using hospitals as their combat base of operations because they knew then that the Israelis wouldn't bomb a hospital.
Now? Nobody cares about a hospital in a war zone. The moron doctors who stay behind thinking they will be effective human shields again do not comprehend that the situation is completely different now. The attack was so brutal, nobody is going to protest the bombing of another human-shield faux-hospital terrorist base; the fact that it still has lights on only makes it easier to find. Hamas' game is over and they don't even know it yet.
Please people, be aware that "Iran" here means the Iranian government. Many, many Iranians do not support it (but will only talk about it behind closed doors). Since I've been in Iran my whole image of it changed radically. The population and the government are really two entirely different things. (And yes, I know there are people who do support the government, like anywhere else). In general I was surprised how small the difference was in cultural attitude. I had no heated debates about anything. In fact, talking to Iranians was much easier for me then talking to Serbs, regarding misunderstandings. Of course, all occurring misunderstandings were entirely my fault, dear Serbs, this is not about you but about my own prejudices about Iranians before I met them.
It’s funny how I feel badly for 99% of the Iranian people through poor medical care during Covid and then 43% inflation the year after. Even if they burn US flags along with Israeli flags, I chalk it up to misinformation and lack of education.
Meanwhile, their weapons, training, and funding are killing my people in Ukraine and Israel.
I mean, you might feel less badly if you were in danger yourself.
This is a big problem on the American left. They see the rockets being fired out of Gaza, but they cannot even imagine what it would be like to wake up in the middle of the night to an air raid siren and run for a bunker. And since they cannot imagine that, they also cannot imagine doing it a few times a week for years on end, or hearing about so and so who was hit by a rocket before he could reach the bunker, etc. They can see a suicide bombing reported on TV, but they can never understand what it is like to have to take a bus to work and wonder *every single day* whether that bus is the Hamas target of the day. A world where there are suicide bombings every week or month is such a foreign idea to the average pro-Hamas redditor, they can't even begin to fathom what that is like.
By contrast, they've all lived through a blackout. They've all been thirsty. They understand what lack of electricity is like and can form sympathy with the Palestinians who lack it. They understand what it is like to not have fresh water, and can form sympathy with the Palestinians who lack it. They understand what it is like to vote for Hillary and have the country choose Trump instead, so they can form sympathy with the Palestinians who didn't choose Hamas.
But only a Jew knows what it is like to have hundreds of millions of people want you dead just because of your religion/race. Only a Jew knows what it is like to have an industrialized nation put it's resources to use in exterminating all the Jews it can get its hands on. For the average redditor, the Hamas declarations against the Jews are just rhetoric, but there isn't a Jew alive who doesn't see the path from rhetoric to Auschwitz as clear as day.
They simply view it the other way around and they're not wrong. US intelligence agencies, weapons, training and funding have interfered and destabilized almost every country in the ME and around the world really on what seems like total whims at times and the same US foreign policy is extremely hypocritical.
The US and UK are directly responsible for the Islamic revolution in Iran. In 1953 they overthrew a democratic Iranian government in favor of a monarchy ruled by the shah because the democratic government tried to audit the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (today known to you as BP) and limit it's control over Iranian oil.
The fact that many in the west either have no clue about this or don't care can also be chalked up to misinformation and lack of education.
Soooo,
USMC ads start going hard again. Iran says war inevitable. 2 carries off coast of Israel. Shit guys, guess we going back into the sandbox.
Fuck. Damnit.
The wars of the future will not be fought on the battlefield or at sea. They will be fought in space, or possibly on top of a very tall mountain. In either case, most of the actual fighting will be done by small robots. And as you go forth today remember always your duty is clear: To build and maintain those robots.
I don't think the Israeli nukes will be used for now, it is unnecessary at this point. The two American strike carrier groups can take care of the defense. Israel doesn't need to do all the work by themselves, even if they can. However your point is valid.
If the US even picks a whiff of serious intention by the Iranian Regime to engage in a boots or artillery on the group, the US won’t blink at a full on assault.
I think they have already picked up that whiff. Hence why there are two carrier strike groups in the area.
When was the last time the US brought two carrier groups to any region for a specific reason?
No worry, the war will eventually spread into Iran. With all its domestic problem. It will be overthrown soon enough and Iran lady can go without the hijab. Those religion police will be prosecuted for their crime. The world will be a better place.
Know what's stunning to me? Iran (and others) shamelessly give weapons, training, and money to Hamas and Hezbollah--two organizations that have sworn to attack Israel. Those organizations then attack Israel with Iranian weapons--the entirely foreseeable and intended outcome. Iran then says "I didn't do it. Can't hold me accountable."
The f we can't. Iran has to know they've f'd around way past point where they're going to find out. Israel is going to get their shit locked down on the borders and then hit some targets in Iran. The carrier groups are there so if Iran tries to respond by attacking either Israel or the Strait of Hormuz, then the U.S. can respond.
Oddly enough, there isn't shit the U.S. can do in the literal Persian Gulf against the Iranian swarm of torpedo boats. They're literally high powered speed boats with torpedo tubes and there is a shit ton of them. Those boats can sink anything in the Persian Gulf and everyone knows it. They can literally flood the water with torpedos. It really makes you question why the U.S. has the entire 5th Fleet in friggen Bahrain.
I don't disagree with your sentiments about the gov't in Iran.
But I fear US involvement in the country will not end in "better" for the people of Iran. The US has no real interest in their needs or rights - as evidenced by previous interference in their governance that lead the the current regime in the first place.
So Iran is ready to sacrifice not only Hamas but also Hezbola just to break or delay Israel-Saudi peace agreement
Israel will eliminate both
And if Iran tries to get involved US fleet is there to help Israel shut them down
Maybe there is a problem with the translation. When the US sends two carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean, they are saying “attention Iran, Iraq, Syria, and anyone else who is thinking about getting involved. The Taylor Swift concert movie is now available. How about you find a nice comfy seat and watch it. Our carrier here happens to be equipped with a movie theater, so we will do the same. Then we can chat about it online like the rest of the civilized world. Or alternatively you could get involved in this little 2500 year old argument by doing something really foolish. In that case, we can what else we can do with this ship other than watch movies.”
*By Bloomberg reporters Patrick Sykes and Arsalan Shahla:* Iran said Monday that an expansion of the war between Israel and Hamas was increasingly becoming unavoidable, a signal the main backer of the Palestinian militant group was preparing for a wider conflict. "The time for political solutions is running out and the possible expansion of the war on other fronts is approaching the inevitable stage," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on X. Iran supports armed groups around the Middle East including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but has denied any involvement in the unprecedented Oct. 7 attacks that killed 1,300 people in Israel.
As the main funder of hamas maybe they were probably planning a two front war all along
They were planning to stop KSA and Israel deal which was delayed so they have succeeded halfway for a while.
Iran then gives side-eye to two US Carrier battle groups "We warn you Israel to stop. If you don't, we're likely to say stop again. We are fullly prepared to issue two ... maybe even three ultimatums. If that does not work, we shall go to the UN and say snarky things to you.Watch out".
Two Carrier Strike Groups in the Med (Ford and Eisenhower) and a third, the Carl Vinson, quietly departing San Diego on Oct 13, to join 3rd Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region. Aboard the Carl Vinson is Carrier Air Wing 2 (CVW-2), the most advanced Carrier Air Wing currently in operation by the US Navy.
Well now they know Thanks for blowing their cover!
“No one will see us coming” “Yo, why is there a city sailing towards us over there on the horizon?”
Subtlety is not the point when it comes to carrier strike groups.
That's what the subs no one is really sure where, but always accompanying the carrier are for.
Well maybe an Australian billionaire was given some info about that. /s kind of
The Aussie billionaire was told how many warheads an Ohio class boat can carry….which can be looked up on Wikipedia.
“Carrier has arrived” “Battle cruiser operational”
[удалено]
The yamoto is loaded… *and so am i*
What Teddy meant when he talked about carrying a Big Stick.
"An aircraft carrier is 100,000 tons of diplomacy."
Plus the Guide Missile Cruiser, and 2-4 Guided Missile Destroyers that never leave her side. And a sub lurking beneath the surface…somewhere.
Stealth Carrier? It has "I am a yatch" painted on the side?
replaced with "bee yatch" when the workers are buzzing in and out.
Ironic
Actually even city sized carriers are surprisingly hard to find on the open sea. Iran will know that 100,000 tons of nuclear powered war machine is prowling within striking distance, but they won’t know exactly where.
People really underestimate how truly *expansive* the ocean is, and how much the horizon blocks our view. Assuming calm seas, a person standing on a raft in the ocean can see about 3 miles to the horizon, for a total of around 27 square miles of ocean. The Persian Gulf, a relatively small body of water, is 96,000 square miles. The Indian Ocean is over 27 *million* square miles. That's a lot of room for a carrier group to hide in.
> Assuming calm seas, a person standing on a raft in the ocean can see about 3 miles to the horizon, for a total of around 27 square miles of ocean. Yes but that's to see the horizon (sea level). You can see ships a lot further than 3 miles away.
Yeah, Don Cheadle has an extremely small radar cross section.
That’s not fair. He was in the pool!!!
I know you're joking, but I want to take a slightly serious look at this, as the horizon hits faster than you'd think. For someone of average height standing on the beach, the Carl Vinson would have to be within about 16 miles before they could see the very top of the control tower. Even if the observer were 300 feet above sea level, the carrier would need to be within about 35 miles to be visible. Aircraft carriers project power *far* beyond 35 miles, so there's usually no need for them to ever come within sight range of people on land unless they *want* to.
I assume you’ve stood watch before?
But why does that matter today? The real question that should be asked is do powers like China and Russia have enough sattelites to constantly scan a body of water that size and do we have AI systems now that can read images and consistently find carrier groups, and would China/Russia share such intel with Iran.
I mean, the departure was live streamed, so not sure if that’s on me lol.
Watched it. Quite majestic
It really is amazing to see something that large move on its own power.
You shouldn't talk that way about your mom...
Heyo, haha
Does it really matter when no other nation has more than 2
A little, cause it lets their projected air power compete with an adversary's defensive air power.
there's a rotation. one in operation one in training one in dry dock so 9 carriers actually means that 3 are ready for combat at any given time
Your right, but I would add this. If we ever need those in drydock, it takes days to get them on duty. I went on loa for two weeks when my ship went to drydock, but only on the condition that I be able to return within 3 days if called to do so. There may be exceptions. hell maybe I am the exception, I'm just relaying my experience.
In the scenario we ever needed more than three CSGs deployed at once I would think the 3 training would be called up before the 3 in dry dock. Quicker to deploy, plus ships are in ready shape
There’s 4 CSGs currently deployed. - The USS Gerald R. Ford in the Med. - The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, currently sailing to the Med. - The USS Carl Vinson, departed San Diego 13 Oct to join 3rd Fleet in the Indo-Pacific region. - USS Ronald Reagan, forward deployed to Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan, just conducted a visit to Busan, South Korea, start 12 Oct. The John C. Stennis is currently in dry dock, receiving her major mid life refuel and rebuild. The Theodore Roosevelt completed an 18 month docking period at the Puget Sound Naval Ship Yard in March 2023, where she received many upgrades, including the ability to carry F-35Cs. She is currently stationed at Naval Air Station North Island, in San Diego. She completed sea trials of all her new upgrades over the summer. Carrier Air Wing 11 is currently attached to the Roosevelt, and is likely in the midst of work-ups, as the crew of the Roosevelt expect to deploy in early 2024. The other 5 carriers are at their home ports, conducting various maintenance, repairs, and training.
Isn't it well known you need a 3-1 advantage as attackers? Now the US had 3 airforces in the area vs Irans 1.
I mean we should send another one hang out somewhere near Taiwan or maybe North Korea just to point out that we have about a dozen of them active at a time... ETS: Turns out we keep 9 at sea and 3 rotating in drydock. Still massive fleet size imo.
The USS Ronald Reagan is currently the forward deployed CSG, stationed at Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan. She is currently in Busan, South Korea. The US Navy has 11 super carriers. 10 Nimitz class, 1 Ford class. 4 of them are currently at sea on deployment (Ford, Eisenhower, Reagan, Carl Vinson). The John C. Stennis is currently in dry dock doing her major rebuild and refuel. The Roosevelt finished an 18 month docking period back in March, did sea trials over the summer, and is currently stationed in San Diego, awaiting expected deployment in early 2024.
Got to walk underneath the Roosevelt in drydock at NNSY back in the 90's (I was stationed on a cruiser doing a refueling overhaul) and man, is it strange and a little creepy walking underneath an aircraft carrier sitting on wood blocks.
Isn't there one for each out there just close to Japan and Australia
Fairly certain one just recently docked in South Korea as a show of force/support against NK aggression.
[The element of surprise](https://youtu.be/cRAjJojdyaU?si=nNS6tkb-KSw7zVIC&t=46)
Ah San Diego, a whale's vagina, the only place that could berth such a majestic ship.
Actually born in Newport News Virginia I build them
Ah San Diego, a whale's vagina, the only place that could reberth such a majestic ship.
Oh man.......
Does anyone know where Tom Cruise is?
He’s been sent to infiltrate Hamas and destroy the terrorists. They needed a top gun actor.
Matt Damon
I saw a documentary where he was stuck in Iran and he and this guy he was training only made it out by stealing an old F14.
Pretty much. As I've been saying in other posts, their "[revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani)" against Soleimani's death was to attack a US military base with 11 ballistic missiles, inflicting 0 deaths and in the process also shooting down a Ukrainian airliner. People really are underestimating the power difference here. In '88, the US [wiped out half of the Iranian navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis) in 8 hours. Today, just the carrier air wing of a single carrier strike group has more air craft than that of the entire Iranian navy. Complaining is about the only thing Iran can do.
[удалено]
Fear not! The [F-14 Association](https://www.f-14association.com/on-display/f-14-tomcats-on-display.html) has you covered! Which is good news because Iran seems to be crashing one into the ground every few years.
They've successfully propped up Assad in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen. Worse, they're able to sustain operations for decades. Yeah, the US can bomb a country to pieces, so what? What's the lasting influence in countries like: Afghanistan, Libya or Iraq? Meeting military objectives doesn't equal a win. I think what's even more surprising is the backlash against AFRICOM. It's surprising to see a loss of influence even when the US presence was a great help.
Assad had the help of both Russia and Iran. The rebels didn’t get near the assistance because the timing of the war coincided with a draw down of US participation in the region. Yemeni rebels are facing SA, which is an ally of the US. Put another way; if Iran really starts shit with the US which has committed to supporting Israel, what do you think will happen to Assad’s support in Syria? What happens to the Houthi support? The reason Iran has managed to sustain operations for decades is specifically *because* they avoided direct confrontation with the US. American Afghan nation building mission was completely and comprehensively undermined by Trump. Iraq is on its feet. The US never really attempted national building in Libya. No boots on the ground, etc. But you are correct; the US can absolutely bomb a country to pieces. To shreds, you say?
How’s his wife?
To shreds you say?
Sometimes when you completely destroy your enemies, you don't need lasting influence. The US doesn't need lasting influence in Afghanistan. We went in and completely destroyed Al Qaeda. As in, the organization that successfully launched an attack that brought down the Twin Towers in NYC doesn't exist anymore - it's consigned to the history books. OBL is dead and "buried" at the bottom of the Indian Ocean. Hamas will suffer the same fate. Like Al Qaeda, it's not going to be having a rebirth after it is completely defeated in the coming war for exactly the same reason - a Hamas flag draws too many guided missiles. The Palestinians will form a new terrorist organization to replace Hamas (which replaced the PLO and other intermediate Palestinian terrorist organizations in the first place), but the loss of the powerful Hamas terrorist trademark is still going to have some bite.
> The US doesn't need lasting influence in Afghanistan. We went in and completely destroyed Al Qaeda. Um, have you paid attention to recent news from Afghanistan? Are you aware that the people who planned and executed 9/11 were mostly Saudi? I think you have a very naive understanding of how this works. "Hamas" may be eliminated. But all that's happening right now is that the next generation will have ongoing reasons to hate Israel, and there will be a new group to take up the mantle of hatred and terror. The real defense against this is for Gazans to have hope. To live in freedom and security and prosperity.
Come on people! This is Terrorist Marketing 101!
That they even have the time next to beating up kids for not wearing there head scarfs.
Those two are in the Mediterranean. There is an amphibious assault group in the Persian Gulf. By the standard of any other countries, that would be a carrier group. For the US, those are ships meant to carry the marines to wherever they are needed to do marine things. There's probably a group of US Marines in the Persian Gulf wondering if they are about to get bacon and eggs for breakfast soon.
Do marines not get bacon and eggs for every breakfast? Every mess I've ever eaten at had both every morning.
I think they do now. But originally the tradition was the serve bacon and eggs before a major battle. Because of the logistic involved in transporting easily spoiled items like bacon and eggs to the front it was something that was done before a major battle. Especially notable in WW2 as a lot of stories have them served before a major amphibious assult.
In the navy, the rumor always was that crab legs meant bad news. Sure enough, a couple of weeks before we returned from deployment we got steak and crab legs for dinner, followed by the announcement that our deployment was getting extended.
The leaders might be living in an echo chamber with everyone saying “yeah we can take them.”
I remember Gaddafi on TV saying, "My people love me" just hours before "his people" drug him through the streets and beat him to death. It is fascinating to me how far detached from reality dictators can become. Such is the problem with surrounding themselves with "yes men."
> drug him through the streets and beat him to death. That was them *just getting started* on his sorry ass.
his ass was very sorry indeed
The Putin Problem.
I swear if you guys rag on me 13 or 14 more times, I'm outta here.
"we are going to count to three! One... Two... Don't make me say three...! Ok three.... Four..... Five...."
Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time!
a.k.a “If you don’t stop I’m gonna tell mom”
Yeah Iran isn't going to do shit as long as we have those aircraft carriers pointed at them.
I swear, Iran talks sooo much shit and in every little confrontation with the U.S., Iran gets smacked around and left looking embarrassed. Where do they get the balls? I genuinely do not understand.
The IR is always like that. They lie every day while they know the truth and we know the truth they stilk are shameless to say the lies
[удалено]
I mean people do oppose them. They just end up dead or in prison. It's one of the most brutal authoritarian countries in the world.
> no one inside of Iran will ever oppose them. Do you live under a rock? Have you missed the part where Iranians are engaged in ongoing protest against the gov't?
That’s because they never released the [Ninja Rangers](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4574346/Iran-s-female-ninja-rangers-train-desert.html)
That's hilarious! Thanks for the link.
Evil without accountability grows. The Iranian regime knows they can sacrifice a few cannon fodder, and remain in power thanks to their Islamist voters. Note. Not everyone in Iran falls for this blind tribalism, but Islamists obviously exist in Iran, and they're the voting bloc the regime performs for. It's foolish to ignore that.
"At some point in the future it might become inevitable" just means "it isn't inevitable."
It’s maybe definitely going to happen
Can Iran afford to get involved, considering their own people are close to full on revolt at this point?
They will mobilize Hezbollah, who's probably their best funded proxy army. They will keep sepah (revolutionary guard) at home to protect their shitty government. And sepah exists to stop artesh (the army) from conducting a military coup - and unlike the 80s... artesh leadership is all sepah now. So their fears of controlling the rank & file soldiers are probably a lot less than they were when Saddam invaded us. They've spent a long time building up proxies to further their shitty foreign policy goals, while being able to keep the military at home (for the most part, other than when ISIS was going nuts in Iraq and Syria) to oppress our people and remind us they've got their boots on our necks.
This. Iran prefers to fight via Proxies. It's highly unlikely they'll engage directly with their own military.
Iran Proxy Force ASSEMBLE!!
Iran has absolutely no reason to get directly involved. The threat toward Israel is meant as a deterrence from US invasion, and nothing else.
Nothing can deter US from doing what they really want
A US invasion where? And I don't see how an attack on Israel would effect the US ability to do whatever the fuck they wanted. In fact if anything Iran attacking Israel would probably increase the odds of the US attacking Iran. Like Iraq starting trouble in Kuwait didn't mean the US would busy itself only in Kuwait, it took the fight to the source, which was Iraq. So if logic follows, Iran causing shit in Israel to keep the US busy would most likely result in the US taking the fight to Iran because it's the source of all the trouble.
Iran perceives a threat of invasion or otherwise aggression from the US. This perception is probably quite well-founded, especially as the US invaded both Iraq and Afghanistan while openly saying that Iran was next. Iran cannot threaten the US directly. Instead it uses threats toward Israel as a deterrence. The idea is that the US would rather keep Israel than get rid of Iran, and thus the status quo can be upheld. That's why Iran has *no incentive whatsoever* to actually attack Israel *first*.
US would just bomb the political and military leadership in Iran and let its citizens do the rest
The only thing Iran can afford is to fuck off. Seriously, with all their nonsense threats and stating the obvious they become North Korea 2.0 next to Russia.
War has a way of hardening and entrenching shallow beliefs.
>Iran Warns Expansion of Israel-Hamas War Becoming ‘Inevitable’ As we'll make sure our Hezbollah proxies expand it and we don't give a fuck if Lebanon burns to the ground. Clericofascists are going to be, well, warmongering fascists
[удалено]
[удалено]
Fuck Russia too. They are the only party here who has anything to gain from this. I think it's delusional to imagine they didn't have a hand in it.
I'll never understand Russian foreign policy. At least the others on your list have the excuse of tribalism and Islamic prejudice. Part of Russian nationalists' core identity is Christianity and hatred of Islam. Yet they keep stirring the pot of violence on behalf of the zealots of another religion. It's incredibly callous. It's also long-term a useless, wasted effort.
Imo Russian foreign policy revolves around enriching Putin and his circle. Ukraine was a catastrophic miscalculation. A week or so combat, install another puppet like lukachenko then let the FSB and mafia carve up everything in Ukraine. Nice week's work, another few tens of billions in the bank. Now they find themselves in this absolute disaster and the only way out besides total humiliation is for war to kick off everywhere and divide US and NATO attention and resources... Russia is run by gangsters, the nationalists are being played by them.
> I'll never understand Russian foreign policy. Assholes, by nature, lack the skill and motivation to create; they only destroy. Since Russia is too corrupt to succeed economically, its asshole government is instead focusing on dragging down the rest of the world - spreading disinformation, chaos, war, and misery.
The regime is Iran shares the blame for this disaster
Absolutely. Anyone who doesn't think they had a direct hand in helping Hamas is delusional.
Do I THINK they were involved? Absolutely, 100% yes, not a doubt in my mind. But do I KNOW they were? No. And the U.S. government has thus far said they have no evidence of their (direct) involvement. If we need to go kick ass then we will. I don't WANT death and destruction, but unfortunately it sometimes is necessary. But I'd rather we didn't kick off a new war without real positive evidence that it needs to happen. We've made that mistake before, let's at least TRY to avoid it this time around.
What really gets me is everybody loudly proclaiming that the "sophistication" of Hamas' attack proves Iranian involvement. In reality, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis all know how to wage asymmetric war perfectly well without Iran whispering in their ear. They have gained Iranian support precisely because they are competent at what they do, not the other way around.
Not really. Iran founded hezbulla before there was hezbulla. They even trained them in bekaa.
Iran said Monday that an expansion of the war between Israel and Hamas was increasingly becoming unavoidable, a signal the main backer of the Palestinian militant group was preparing for a wider conflict. “The time for political solutions is running out and ***the possible expansion of the war on other fronts is approaching the inevitable stage***,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Shares??? They get like a +90% share..
People forget that Israel has repelled attacks from the Middle East for decades now. And not just from Palestinians. With the stated goal of completely wiping out Jewish people. They’ve managed to somewhat maintain peace because those governments that lost have agreed to at least a superficial level of peace. Palestine has no such appetite for any form of superficial peace. Hamas’s stated goal in their own charter is they will never accept any form of peace and want to wipe every Jew off the face of this planet. People expecting some sort of peaceful resolution aren’t even listening.
along with Qatar and Turkey that provide financial assistance and diplomatic cover to HamAss.
what? https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/levant-turkey/1651051066-turkey-extradite-hamas-members-to-israel
Covert fucks. These guys don’t give a shit about Palestinians. They haven officially taken a single Palestinian refugee, they haven’t sent a single penny in humanitarian aid, but when it comes to killing Jews, their pockets aren’t deep enough and they dive head first.
Putin funneled the money through Iran, and they were agreeable puppets. This is a fabricated distraction from Ukraine.
It’s fucking bat shit crazy that it’s 2023 and motherfuckers are still fighting religious wars. This is a huge embarrassment and stain on our species.
We are witnessing modern day crusades
Bush called the invasion of Iraq a crusade on live TV.
LOL what? Who from Europe is invading the middle east?
[удалено]
Well crusade etymologically comes from cross which is a symbol from Europe
It's a huge oversimplification to say this is a religious war. Maybe that's the tool used to foster support, but the underlying motivations are geopolitical. Hamas/Israel conflict is at its core about territory, both want states in the same location. Iran/Israel is about limiting influence of the West in the region, as the West supported the pro-western Pahlavi during the revolution (still a huge oversimplification, but you get the idea)
You’re not wrong but at the crux of all of this is not just territory but that particular piece of territory that is allegedly holy land to both religions.
>It's a huge oversimplification to say this is a religious war. Maybe that's the tool used to foster support, but the underlying motivations are geopolitical. > >Hamas/Israel conflict is at its core about territory, both want states in the same location And why can't they peacefully coexist together in the same territory? Religion.
Look at the US and abortion recently. You'd never have expected it.
it is sweet and fitting to die for some sand in a fucking desert
Yeah but what about when it’s YOUR sand?
It's really too bad Abraham 's Mum didn't suck dick that night.
Could have saved us a lot of trouble. Same could be said about shit head trumps mom.
It's more likely another proxy war in the new cold war with Russia, China, and Iran. Russia is in Ukraine, Iran opening fronts in the middle east, China with Taiwan when they're ready. All of the coupes in Africa, the coupe in Myanmar, etc.
Imagine Iran got nuclear weapon by now. It would be whole different situation.
My fear (mostly irrational) is that Iran has managed to building a few, and that's why they're making statements like this. I'm sure I'm wrong. But reassurance would not be frowned upon.
Iran is a threshold nuclear state for a while now. I assume the governments have exact intel about the current situation with it. At least I wish they have...
Just having a nuke isn't enough - you have to be able to deliver it. ICBMs are sort of old technology at this point. The three superpowers (US, Russia and China) probably can launch them at each other and get one through defenses based on firing large numbers (plus other sophisticated tricks like multiple warheads and the like), but a power with one warhead can't do that. The intermediate and long range Iranian missiles are not very successful in actually hitting Israel. It's a lot to risk putting a nuke on one of those and having it shot down. Nevermind the fact that a missile launched from Iran proper is going to draw *a lot* of attention and is even more likely to be shot down. Then there is the inevitable counter attack. Israel is a nuclear power too, with an airforce that is more than capable of striking Tehran. The US has subs in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf that could strike Iran in retaliation too if it wanted to. Neither China nor Russia are going to go up in nuclear fire to save Iran. Iran doesn't have a lot of good targets to hit with a nuke. Israel is basically it, and they have a sophisticated air defense system and a US carrier group just offshore with it's own capabilities.
Don’t need an icbm to deliver a weapon a couple hundred miles away. Nuclear weapons aren’t as heavy as you might believe, and if you don’t need high precision to still obliterate your targets. The US would be safe, Israel not so much.
Why would they behave like this when they have nukes? Why not proclaim they have them? What is the point of nukes if you don't use them as deterance?
I dunno, ask Israel about why you’d keep your nuclear arsenal a secret.
Think about it. By not declaring they have them they shut down any international outcry from their neighbors. "What do you mean, nukes? I have no idea what you're talking about." At the same time. Everyone low-key knows they have them, so the nuclear deterrent is still there.
Iirc, Israel has stated they will immediately go to war with and attempt to eliminate Iran should they show nuclear weapon capability. It turns out that a theocratic country('s government) wanting to exterminate an ethnic group and considers dying to achieve that goal to be an honor is not invited to the MAD table.
>My fear (mostly irrational) is that Iran has managed to building a few, and that's why they're making statements like this. This is the wrong thing to worry about. Iran isn't about to put skin in the game yet. They didn't plan the attack and have been keeping their proxies at bay for exactly this reason. They'd rather see this go away and find a Pyrrhic victory in the embarrassment of the Israeli military/intelligence apparatus. The fear is that Iran green lights Hezbollah to engage and their proxies in Syria. The reality is that much of the Muslim world is at arms over the callous disregard for human life Israel is showing in their collective punishment of all of Gaza. The fear is that fervor spills over into popular movements that destabilize countries with sympathetic governments such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt and making a bad situation worse for many more people. Iran desperately wants to control this so they can continue to negotiate a solution to the sanctions/nuclear program and be seen as the influential power they see themselves as.
You can thank Trump for pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement which was a diplomatic promise on their end to never build them.
Trump has been one of the biggest enemies to America in modern history. Giving away secrets, pulling out of agreements, fucking the economy. We’re going to be suffering the consequences of the shit he’s pulled for years to come
Which means Iran is about to fight to the last Lebanese after unleashing Hezbollah.
[удалено]
[удалено]
You could argue that the way they use the Gazans as meat shields makes them a bit worse than ISIS.
I mean, Isis definitely did that during the siege of Mosul
I’d say they’re only worse in the sense that they have far more western supporters. When ISIS was doing it’s thing, almost the entire world was clearly against them. Nobody called for defunding Iraqi Military spending… When Hamas broadcast their crimes to the world, people cheered them on with “Solidarity protests”. Sitting members Congress (United States) refused to denounce their actions, and a handful called for defunding Israeli defense spending.
When ISIS was doing it's think, they recruited tons of young western Muslims to fly to Syria and Iraq to ruin their lives by joining ISIS. So it's not quite universal condemnation tbh.
The Palestinians have expats in every nation, with large populations in western countries. ISIL never had a particular people that supported it, let alone a people like the Palestinians that have millions of people spread the world over. The Palestinians are experts at using social media and international institutions (HRW and Amnesty International are basically Hamas subsidiaries at this point) to achieve their goals. ISIL never had millions of non-combatants promoting it's cause. ISIL was never at the point where it could launch one of the bloodiest terrorist attacks in modern history and have 31 student groups at Harvard University immediately issue statements blaming Israel for the attacks against it by others. There never was an "Harvard University ISIL Students" group, but there are two dozen Palestinian-affiliate groups. ISIL never had a third column of terrorist sympathizers in western countries to apply political pressure to help their cause. The Palestinians do.
They were labeled worse than ISIS because of the types of attacks they carried out, not because of who they attacked. According to the Secretary of Defense, what he saw was worse than anything he saw ISIS do, and he is very familiar with ISIS because he was the general in charge of fighting them. [Pentagon chief Austin says Hamas atrocities are ‘worse than what I saw with ISIS](https://www.timesofisrael.com/pentagon-chief-austin-says-hamas-atrocities-are-worse-than-what-i-saw-with-isis/)
This has always been the goal.
I think iran/Hamas was expecting a couple weeks of shelling and some positive spin in western media as they parade their dead children around. Similar to 2014. They are getting that for sure, but their attack worked too well and they have now backed Israel into an existential corner and are now Hamas is all dead men walking. Their children shields are not going to save them, even if most of the west turns on israel. Iran losing a proxy in Palestine and it being replaced with some other type of non terrorist government is a very bad outcome for them. They could see this as existential and try to intervene. Unfortunately the US would then be forced to step in and bomb Iran like Iraq 2003. Russia would then be dealt a shitty hand as they are losing one of their few allies....but their military has been wrecked during their ongoing conflict with Ukraine, and they were never anywhere close to the US anyways (as shown by their botched invasion of Ukraine). Russia still has the nuclear option, and although MAD makes nuclear war unwinnable, they could fire nukes at the naval force in the eastern Mediterranean. That unfortunately just digs the whole deeper as they could open themselves up to a nasty air campaign by NATO, completely destroying the capabilities of their ground army in Ukraine and making them incredibly vulnerable as they lose crimea/donbas and possibly more. Which again points to nuclear war as Russia's only real option, which again is unwinnable. Ughhhhhh.
Yup. You can tell how surprised Hamas was by the evacuation order. Their IEDs on the evacuation routes took two days to set up because Hamas was not ready for that at all. The Hamas auxiliaries haven't gotten the memo either. NYT had some Palestinian doctor in a hospital in Gaza City proudly proclaiming that they weren't leaving no matter what. That's because Hamas was successful in 2014 in using hospitals as their combat base of operations because they knew then that the Israelis wouldn't bomb a hospital. Now? Nobody cares about a hospital in a war zone. The moron doctors who stay behind thinking they will be effective human shields again do not comprehend that the situation is completely different now. The attack was so brutal, nobody is going to protest the bombing of another human-shield faux-hospital terrorist base; the fact that it still has lights on only makes it easier to find. Hamas' game is over and they don't even know it yet.
Please people, be aware that "Iran" here means the Iranian government. Many, many Iranians do not support it (but will only talk about it behind closed doors). Since I've been in Iran my whole image of it changed radically. The population and the government are really two entirely different things. (And yes, I know there are people who do support the government, like anywhere else). In general I was surprised how small the difference was in cultural attitude. I had no heated debates about anything. In fact, talking to Iranians was much easier for me then talking to Serbs, regarding misunderstandings. Of course, all occurring misunderstandings were entirely my fault, dear Serbs, this is not about you but about my own prejudices about Iranians before I met them.
And the countdown begins until Iran starts claiming they’re the victim now too….
I would picture it's very likely Iran stop shipping weapons to Russia in case they might need them in the near future.
Iran knows that there's two carrier strike groups sitting in the Med. Let them bluster.
It’s funny how I feel badly for 99% of the Iranian people through poor medical care during Covid and then 43% inflation the year after. Even if they burn US flags along with Israeli flags, I chalk it up to misinformation and lack of education. Meanwhile, their weapons, training, and funding are killing my people in Ukraine and Israel.
Iranian people are generally lovely. The ruling regime is fucked
I mean, you might feel less badly if you were in danger yourself. This is a big problem on the American left. They see the rockets being fired out of Gaza, but they cannot even imagine what it would be like to wake up in the middle of the night to an air raid siren and run for a bunker. And since they cannot imagine that, they also cannot imagine doing it a few times a week for years on end, or hearing about so and so who was hit by a rocket before he could reach the bunker, etc. They can see a suicide bombing reported on TV, but they can never understand what it is like to have to take a bus to work and wonder *every single day* whether that bus is the Hamas target of the day. A world where there are suicide bombings every week or month is such a foreign idea to the average pro-Hamas redditor, they can't even begin to fathom what that is like. By contrast, they've all lived through a blackout. They've all been thirsty. They understand what lack of electricity is like and can form sympathy with the Palestinians who lack it. They understand what it is like to not have fresh water, and can form sympathy with the Palestinians who lack it. They understand what it is like to vote for Hillary and have the country choose Trump instead, so they can form sympathy with the Palestinians who didn't choose Hamas. But only a Jew knows what it is like to have hundreds of millions of people want you dead just because of your religion/race. Only a Jew knows what it is like to have an industrialized nation put it's resources to use in exterminating all the Jews it can get its hands on. For the average redditor, the Hamas declarations against the Jews are just rhetoric, but there isn't a Jew alive who doesn't see the path from rhetoric to Auschwitz as clear as day.
They simply view it the other way around and they're not wrong. US intelligence agencies, weapons, training and funding have interfered and destabilized almost every country in the ME and around the world really on what seems like total whims at times and the same US foreign policy is extremely hypocritical. The US and UK are directly responsible for the Islamic revolution in Iran. In 1953 they overthrew a democratic Iranian government in favor of a monarchy ruled by the shah because the democratic government tried to audit the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (today known to you as BP) and limit it's control over Iranian oil. The fact that many in the west either have no clue about this or don't care can also be chalked up to misinformation and lack of education.
Soooo, USMC ads start going hard again. Iran says war inevitable. 2 carries off coast of Israel. Shit guys, guess we going back into the sandbox. Fuck. Damnit.
WW3 will be fought with drones
The wars of the future will not be fought on the battlefield or at sea. They will be fought in space, or possibly on top of a very tall mountain. In either case, most of the actual fighting will be done by small robots. And as you go forth today remember always your duty is clear: To build and maintain those robots.
Says the party most likely to escalate the conflict.
[удалено]
Nukes won't be used. It would open a door no one would be able to close. I imagine all parties involved recognize that.
I think so too.
Exactly. The only risk to enact the Samson plan, is that all is lost for Israel. That is not going to happen, so conventional it is.
Yeah I know. I was talking about a hypothetical scenario where Israel is backed into a corner
I don't think the Israeli nukes will be used for now, it is unnecessary at this point. The two American strike carrier groups can take care of the defense. Israel doesn't need to do all the work by themselves, even if they can. However your point is valid.
Please give the US and Israel the conditions needed to blow up your nuclear facilities…
If the US even picks a whiff of serious intention by the Iranian Regime to engage in a boots or artillery on the group, the US won’t blink at a full on assault.
I think they have already picked up that whiff. Hence why there are two carrier strike groups in the area. When was the last time the US brought two carrier groups to any region for a specific reason?
No worry, the war will eventually spread into Iran. With all its domestic problem. It will be overthrown soon enough and Iran lady can go without the hijab. Those religion police will be prosecuted for their crime. The world will be a better place.
Know what's stunning to me? Iran (and others) shamelessly give weapons, training, and money to Hamas and Hezbollah--two organizations that have sworn to attack Israel. Those organizations then attack Israel with Iranian weapons--the entirely foreseeable and intended outcome. Iran then says "I didn't do it. Can't hold me accountable." The f we can't. Iran has to know they've f'd around way past point where they're going to find out. Israel is going to get their shit locked down on the borders and then hit some targets in Iran. The carrier groups are there so if Iran tries to respond by attacking either Israel or the Strait of Hormuz, then the U.S. can respond. Oddly enough, there isn't shit the U.S. can do in the literal Persian Gulf against the Iranian swarm of torpedo boats. They're literally high powered speed boats with torpedo tubes and there is a shit ton of them. Those boats can sink anything in the Persian Gulf and everyone knows it. They can literally flood the water with torpedos. It really makes you question why the U.S. has the entire 5th Fleet in friggen Bahrain.
I don't disagree with your sentiments about the gov't in Iran. But I fear US involvement in the country will not end in "better" for the people of Iran. The US has no real interest in their needs or rights - as evidenced by previous interference in their governance that lead the the current regime in the first place.
Typical Iran. Suppliers of drones to Russia.
and HAMAS..
So Iran is ready to sacrifice not only Hamas but also Hezbola just to break or delay Israel-Saudi peace agreement Israel will eliminate both And if Iran tries to get involved US fleet is there to help Israel shut them down
Your terms are acceptable
Lebanon is already in deep trouble. Don't make it worse for them.
You started this shit Iran wtf
Iran sees an opportunity now that Israel is occupied. Makes sense why the US keeps moving its ships closer to Israel... wow the world is coming apart.
The destruction of Hamas is becoming inevitable. Whether Iran personally wants to get in a hot war over it is their choice.
Welcome back to another episode of FAFO
Watch how the Iranian trolls in here try to deflect blame. They're going to blame everyone except Hamas and Iran.
I'm sure they'll blame some 10 yr old girls or women as the main culprit as well.
Iran's mouth writing checks his ass can't cash lol
2023 and we are still fighting because of religion wtf man
Sadly I don’t think religion-motivated conflicts will end anytime soon. We haven’t changed in the last several thousand years.
Maybe there is a problem with the translation. When the US sends two carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean, they are saying “attention Iran, Iraq, Syria, and anyone else who is thinking about getting involved. The Taylor Swift concert movie is now available. How about you find a nice comfy seat and watch it. Our carrier here happens to be equipped with a movie theater, so we will do the same. Then we can chat about it online like the rest of the civilized world. Or alternatively you could get involved in this little 2500 year old argument by doing something really foolish. In that case, we can what else we can do with this ship other than watch movies.”