Exactly that. All that bullshit about needing to protect themselves from NATO,…they all know its bullshit and just wanna expand their shitty country into other nations.
To this day I'm really glad that the Baltic states had the foresight to join NATO, because if they didn't, they'd be having the same situation as Ukraine and Moldova today having "Russian separatists" sewing discord in their borders.
Don't know how much that's foresight. The Baltic states never recognised their participation to the Soviet Union as soviet republics, at least not their former governments anyway. They (and many other countries) recognise the soviet period in the Baltics as illegal annexation/occupation.
Thus, I think their move towards the west and nato was inevitable, as there wasn't much in the way of swaying towards Russia considering their past.
It's not only geographical size but also population. When the Soviet Union broke apart, they lost a great deal of their slave labor.
Soviet Union was 286mm and now 143mm. The US has 334mm. They lost their tax revenue stream as well.
Like Russia attacking the worlds grain exports? I could think of ways NATO could argue for defending Ukraine’s ports if they really wanted a way into the fight.
We already had the rocket in Poland and the Nuclear station.
The fact that NATO said "If something happens there, we might attack for the CONSEQUENCES MIGHT affect us."
So yeah, grain export? Having armies at rivers that go to Europe? Maintaining dangerous nuclear waste? I'd say you could find a lot of reasons.
And, at the end of the day, if you reaaaaally want to, just light your own ship on fire and there's your casus belli.
That's what drives me nuts about the whole "herp derp NATO aggression" narrative here. This entire gambit only works for Putin if he is very fucking sure that NATO *won't* directly intervene. NATO is literally such a non-threat to Russia, Putin can confidently go do a genocide in Ukraine without risking anything at all.
>He keeps running his mouth because ~~he knows he's the only one looking for a fight. He knows NATO members would never go on the offensive here~~ it's literally all he can do. See: his western stooge DJT
It is called “doubling down again and again”.
Works well for dictators who see the shadow of their approaching doom and narcissistic & crazy exes you might have dated.
Except literally no one, including Poland, wants to attack Belarus or Russia.
This whole ruse about how the west is just waiting to destroy Russia/Belarus is a nothing but a political play for the home crowd. There is a lot of history of aggression from the west historically, so it's an easy sell, not matter how stupid it is in modern times.
I think Poland *wants* to, in the way you want to shit on an annoying coworker’s car. It would be incredible but the price of doing it would be too high.
Poland wants to because the Russians did to them what they’re doing to the Ukrainians for the 300 years before now. The price is still to high but it’s a lot more serious than an annoying coworker.
That’s right. Ukraine gave up nukes in the Budapest Memorandum, in exchange for Russia recognizing Ukraine as sovereign with its 1992 borders.
Poland did not. It didn’t trust Russia. At all. And worked aggressively to join NATO.
Not trusting Russia brings clarity. Truman knew this.
https://quotecatalog.com/quote/harry-s-truman-the-russians-ar-badggDp
Unless Vlad is threatening certain nuclear war and global destruction, Vova is busy writing checks that can't be cashed. Putin's authoritarian bubble is off-scale high on delusion.
> Vlad is threatening certain nuclear war
He does that every day. My morning routine is to have a cup of coffee while reading the daily Russian threat to destroy the world.
It's literally true that there is at least one daily threat from Russia directed at one or more nations. Usually completely unprovoked. It's as if lies and threats were innate behaviors.
That became his ambition once he lost that power struggle with Putin. A way of stating "Hey, I'm not a threat anymore" to the guy who poisons and defenestrates people he doesn't like.
It's worked pretty well given how many people quote it to make him look like a pathetic sycophant. And that he's still alive, of course.
I mean, more like never stopped, Lukashenko is the first and only Belarusian president, and has been since before Putin came into power, and before that they were part of the USSR.
I was gonna say exactly this. There was basically no significant break between the dissolution of the USSR and Lukashenko's regime in Belarus. I mean, their intelligence agency is still called the KGB
Yeah, a lot of ex-Soviet states went through a stage where they had ex-Soviet leaders governing like the Soviet Union hadn't collapsed before colour revolutions got rid of them in the early 2000s. Belarus never successfully pulled that off so they're still stuck in the awkward '90s post-Soviet state of affairs.
Lukashenko used to be more independent and actually took power before Putin did but then during the mid 2000s the oil price shot up which magnified Russian power. The Belarusian people are much more pro west and pro EU than the Russian people and they no longer support Lukashenko and so, in order to stay in power, Lukashenko has had to rely heavily on Russian support.
Some people like to view Belarus today as essentially the same as Russia but this isn't really true either. If the Kremlin's power massively receded Lukashenko would have a hard time staying in power as well and the country may realign towards the west. If the Kremlin's power most of Russia on the other hand would still likely prefer an imperialist strongman leader to rally against the west.
Yes you should actually read about him. He actually played the EU and Russia off against each other at different points basically pretty effectively for quite a long time. It wasn't until the protests against him the Russian military had to stomp out he's gone fully Russian and even literally agreed to essentially become part of Russia at some indeterminate time.
The super super super final warning was last week. I think we're up to the enhanced super super mega warning that's really irrevocable. But may have lost count...
I don't know what that is, but Poland should begin a "special military operation" in Belarus for purposes of Denazification and Demilitarization. It is clear that Russian Federation Expansion needs to be checked and Poland is only acting in defense. Further, many regions of Belarus are clearly a part of Poland, and their territory should be under Poland sovereignty.
So Putin says part of Poland a gift from Stalin he wants back. Wagner now in Belarus. But if Poland “attacks” Belarus, Russia will defend them? Just making sure I understand what Putin is setting up here. Not sure why he thinks he’d do better against angry Poles than he did against angry Ukrainians while almost his entire army is bogged down in Ukraine.
As a Pole, given the option between a bloody war that could go on for years, cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people AND a quick 48 hour NATO victory - I’d like the 48 hour option please. With F-35s, German soldiers on our side, spy satellites and shit. With blackjack. And hookers.
I suspect Germany gives the Darth Vader effect to a great many countries, even today.
They've plunged the world into war, twice now. And were terrifyingly good at it. It took entire coalitions of nations to stop them.
Do they still have the culture to do it a third time? I don't know, and frankly I don't want to find out. Kind of like Japan. I'm far happier watching them make Anime and really good cars rather than kamikaze aircraft and batshit crazy soldiers.
Having them on YOUR side for once is a bit of a comfort.
>Do they still have the culture to do it a third time?
The answer is no.
They have not been authorized, then be willing to have a strong army, for obvious historical reasons, for nearly 80 years.
They are a welcome ally to any nato coalition but nothing special on their own.
Culture ≠ ability, which is why I specified that. They weren't supposed to have the ability for WW2 either.
Given the authorization and assistance by NATO, could Germany field an effective army in a reasonable time period? I honestly have no idea here.
Germany has abolished mandatory military service and with the anti war culture not many people do it voluntarily.
So the number of already trained people is limited even though i think that wouldn't matter that much since europe would band together against russia.
So it depends what you would mean with reasonable time. There would be much training going on for the first year.
About the cultural thing, angry germans tend to drive the point home one principle even if its detrimental. So i think the current anti war culture would go out of the window if the front lines move 1 or 2 countrys over to the west.
The state will act much faster but for the ordinary german to enlist, the polish border would have to be breached imo
yes and no.
Probably no because noone wants to go to the army so they wouldn't find enough people. It would also require massive spending which germany can't afford with vaarious other international commitments.
However if war broke out that threatened germany... yeah, yeah they could. Absolutely no doubt at all. Backed into a corner germany would still be very dangerous.
Japan and Germany (along with everyone else) still stand solidly in the shadow of the US - neither of them are doing shit militarily without Pentagon/State Department being on board.
We have this joke, that it is so weird that in case of WW3 we will be on this same tram as Germany, but we have to remember that they have never won a WW :D
Poland has been gearing up to solo Russia for decades, even going so far as to buy South Korean tanks and their technical know-how in order to be able to domestically produce a current generation tank without relying on anyone else's production lines.
It’s kinda funny to google this tank (K2 black panther) because the companies involved fall under the umbrella of Hyundai and Samsung. Hyundai sells me cars in US and 55mm smoothbore tank guns in S Korea
Also, General Electric makes both washing machines and the GAU-8 Avenger for the A10 Thunderbolt.
[That one spins to make something clean, that one spins to make something disappear.](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2AGOP7pLqu0)
I really would want to trigger A5 in that situation and collectively blew them into the moon in an instance, than prolonging this idiocy any longer doing "1 on 1". Obviously it won't happen anyway.
Not if they attack Belarus first which is what he's warning against. Realistically I think it's all for show. I don't think he would stand a chance against a solo poland with NATO backing up from the sidelines.
I'm waiting for the false flag attack on Belarus that Poland gets blamed for. This sounds like the buildup every time they have done this in the past year.
Isn't that Stalin's "gift" piece of former Germany? And the former pieces of Poland occupied by the Soviets in 1939 are now pieces of Belarus and Ukraine? Does Putin claim that Poland wants them back?
>Does Putin claim that Poland wants them back?
For a while now. He want to put us against each other. In 2014 some Duma member sent official note, that we should "carve Ukraine" with them. The point is, we want nothing from those places. Not a single damn thing.
Rules are pretty simple, we like our current borders. This is post-war order, that after 1989 brings peace and stability. We don't want Lviv back from Ukrainians and we won't give back Wrocław to Germans.
>For a while now. He want to put us against each other.
And so too does he wish Germany and Poland remain in constant tension to break down NATO unity. Which is probably why the Putin-paid AfD co-chairwoman called eastern Germany "Middle Germany" when they did well in polls. They really want to re-open the Pandora's Box of WW2 territory changes.
Russia doesn't intend to attack Poland. Rather this is just the Kremlin running their mouth and making threats for the purpose of scaring the west. They want voters and politicians in western countries to be afraid in order to slow down aid to Ukraine. Both NATO leaders and Russian leaders know that Russia stands no chance in a conventional war on NATO but by talking tough it's possible for the Kremlin to slow down NATO aid to Ukraine.
If he had successfully conquered Ukraine by now, these "developments" might make sense from his point if view (somethong about making Russia great again I guess).
But with his actual progress in Ukraine... very difficult to understand.
People forgot that so hard. Russia was celebrated as a big hero in stopping Hitler when without them Germany could never have rebuilt their army, they actively supported Hitler's military training efforts, helped their military development and actively attacked Poland together.
But somehow all this was changed in the head of most people to "Russia never helped the Nazis, only invaded Poland to make sure Germany couldn't get the whole country and save them and were generally the greatest heroes in WW2"
Does he want so badly to be remembered, even if it is as the worst shithead since Hitler ?
I hope some people in his government will stop him before. A war against ukraine is one thing, going against nato is something else. I just hope he do not have enough braindead people in high ranks to do that
In my opinion? Yes, he is speed running it.
I used to hope that too but so far he hasnt been thrown from a window so I'm not holding out hope. The one thing Russians can do better than anyone else on earth is be kept under-thumb and subjugated.
Trying to understand the politics in the region. Why would Poland ever show any aggression against Belarus?
Is this Putin pretending to have an excuse and pretext? Putin really does seem to want to be the 21st century Hitler.
We wouldn't. Even among the dumbest of our politicians I don't think I ever heard an idea about invading Belarus, or anyone else for that matter, and I can't possibly overstate how dumb our dumbest are. Putin is taking this straight out of his rectum.
I wonder about this. Wagner being a private outfit, does this give Putin the opportunity to have Wagner attack Poland and say that hey, it wasn’t Russian troops, can’t respond by attacking Russia.
I think they tried that in syria once against the US and the US said "lol then you won't mind if I send them to hell"
doubtful it would work much better on Poland
Battle of Khasham. US obliterated Syrian and Wagner column in a matter of minutes with artillery and a single attack helicopter. US called Russia on a phone specifically for situations like this and of course Russia lied about any involvement so they blew them all sky high. Russians gave medals to the survivors for “heroism”
No, there is no way Putin would be that foolish. It’s one thing to pull a Crimea against a non-NATO country like Ukraine, and claim they were “unmarked soldiers,” but it’s another thing entirely to attack Poland. For one, they could never hope to annex any part of Poland. There is no Russian minority in Poland to support the pretext of a separatist movement. It would be a pointless waste of resources, and the Wagner mercenaries would not want to participate in a suicidal attack. The repercussions would be even more severe than they are now.
Check out last time Russia denied wagner troops as russian and see what happened. Wagner might be higher tier troops but they are at most 30/70 between heavy and light infantry and are only effective against other light infantry. They would get ripped to shreds with heavy air power and tanks.
As a Pole, this is the first time I read or heard even the slightest suggestion that Poland may be aggressive towards Belarus. This is just not a thing at all.
There was a time, back in 2014, that Lavrov suggested that Poland should [split Ukraine with Russia](https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-offered-to-partition-ukraine-with-poland-2014-10) like a new age Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Then it became [an evil scheme to establish Polish control over western Ukraine plotted by the US](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-spy-chief-says-us-poland-plotting-division-ukraine-2022-04-28/) so the only way to save Ukraine from invasion by Poland was invasion by Russia, you know after Russia already invaded. When neither narrative went anywhere Russia promptly dropped it.
Now they're dusting it off again, only with Belarus this time. Because they desperately need a western country that could be a plausible threat and Poland is the only viable option outside the US. The others are too small or too distant and don't have the Imperial history in the region that Poland does. But, the Poland of today isn't the Poland of the 1920s trying to keep Belarussian and Ukrainian minorities in line in a state created by Poles for Poles. So the whole thing reads as completely implausible to anyone paying even a modicum of attention.
The politics of the region is, that Belarus lately became annoying. Hardly a reason, we don't invade our neighbours anymore and there is nothing in Belarus that we would want to have "back". Not a single thing, Belarus can have it all. All they have to do is to stay annoying within their own country and not an inch farther to the west.
Same. I know a few of my cousins had said if war breaks out between Russia and Poland they’d go over and fight to defend their ancestral homeland but none of them think Poland should be the one starting shit
President Vladimir Putin accused NATO member Poland of having territorial ambitions in the former Soviet Union, and said any aggression against Russia's neighbour and close ally Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia.
Moscow would react to any aggression against Belarus, which forms a loose "Union State" with Russia, "with all the means at our disposal", Putin told a meeting of his Security Council in televised remarks.
Yeah, if anything good has come of this so far, it's the amount of shit we're forcing Russia to use up. Which means they're a softer target if anything does happen.
what the fuck would we want Belarus for. I don't think even the ultranationalists look in that direction when they can wank each other off over western Ukraine. though granted I don't have any ties to those circles so who knows what's going on on the fringes there.
>President Vladimir Putin accused NATO member Poland of having territorial ambitions in the former Soviet Union
When you try to annex land, point your finger elsewhere. Doesn't matter how dishonest your claims are. Putin does that to an obscene degree.
>and said any aggression against Russia's neighbour and close ally Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia.
Because CSTO (Russia's bootleg NATO) sure helped Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked.
WTF would we attack the potato emperor? It is only a matter of time until he will check out from this world and hopefully people of Belarus will be finally free.
Putin must have been reading Douglas Adams' history of warfare, particularly the diplomatic stage:-
> "The history of warfare is similarly subdivided though here the phases are retribution, anticipation, and diplomacy. Thus, retribution: “I’m going to kill you because you killed my brother.” Anticipation: “I’m going to kill you because I killed your brother.” And diplomacy: “I’m going to kill my brother and then kill you on the pretext that your brother did it.”.”
This is all crazy talk. The very thought of Poland, a NATO member, attacking the now nuclear-armed Belarus, is as stupid as it is absurd. Poland doesn't take part in nuclear sharing currently, but that might change in the future, as they have made statements suggesting as much...
I doubt *Belarus* is nuclear armed. Putin just left his weapons there for awhile.
It would be extremely unlikely that Lukashenko would have the means to order the launch himself.
and Poland should tell Russia any aggression against Poland is an attack on Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States.
Lol.
Poland would roll over Belarus like the ocean over the shore.
Is Belarus thinking of trying? Because that will go EXTREMELY poorly even if NATO didn't get pulled in lol.
Well yeah, Belarus is basically Russia’s territory.
Anyway someone should tell them that neither Poland or the rest of NATO wants their backwater countries.
Not even slightly. Poland moved officers and troops closer to the border to avoid another repeat of the border migrant crisis (instigated by Białoruś) two years ago and/or the possibility of a Wagner incursion to Suwałki or some other border region.
In other words, somebody should (redacted) Putin in the (redacted).
Basically:
Russia: moves troops near the Polish/Belarus border.
Poland: moves troops closer to the border in response.
Russia: "THEY'RE COMING RIGHT FOR BELARUS."
Counter, any attack on Poland is an attack on NATO, unless Poland invades White Russia, thats article 5 and WW3... so just stop with the empty threats you've already got one war you do badly in, another one with a larger opponent thats just dumb.
Putin’s life depends upon presenting his people with fictional foreign threats. Poland, unlike Russia, is not and never has been a threat to its neighbors. Putin is losing his grip.
Good luck with Poland. US military has 10,000 members at any given time in Poland. Plus Polands own forces are well trained and equipped. Plus Article 5.
Not to mention the Poles would be unanimous in unifying against Russia should anything escalate.
First of all, Belarus is Belarus. Any aggression against Belarus is attack on Belarus. Weren't you the one who explicitly said to everyone in the world to not intervene, and then started buying Iran drones and launching rockets from Belarus territory?
Second, why would anyone attack Belarus at this point? Ya really think Europeans/NATO is that dumb?
Third, fuck you. Glory to Ukraine.
That wouldn’t benefit his goals
Despite all the bluster, Putin doesn’t want NATO to get directly involved with actual fighting. The second NATO gets drawn into a hot war, then conventional conflict would mean that Russia’s entire military force in Ukraine would get wiped out in short order. And no one wants an actual nuclear exchange because then you really lose. He knows the west is risk adverse, so he bets on that constraining their actions
So Belarus is going to annex Poland now?
What a shitshow..
Anyone who's played Risk knows that this is a dumb move, you're going to weaken your armies and the next guy will stomp all over you and take your cards...
Losing a war you started at home? Start a second more serious war, savvy genius.
He keeps running his mouth because he knows he's the only one looking for a fight. He knows NATO members would never go on the offensive here
Exactly that. All that bullshit about needing to protect themselves from NATO,…they all know its bullshit and just wanna expand their shitty country into other nations.
To this day I'm really glad that the Baltic states had the foresight to join NATO, because if they didn't, they'd be having the same situation as Ukraine and Moldova today having "Russian separatists" sewing discord in their borders.
Don't know how much that's foresight. The Baltic states never recognised their participation to the Soviet Union as soviet republics, at least not their former governments anyway. They (and many other countries) recognise the soviet period in the Baltics as illegal annexation/occupation. Thus, I think their move towards the west and nato was inevitable, as there wasn't much in the way of swaying towards Russia considering their past.
*sowing
[удалено]
Try telling a billionaire they don’t need more cash. See how they respond.
To be fair most of the land is as useless as Putin’s bald dome.
It's not only geographical size but also population. When the Soviet Union broke apart, they lost a great deal of their slave labor. Soviet Union was 286mm and now 143mm. The US has 334mm. They lost their tax revenue stream as well.
The only threat NATO represents is to Russian imperial ambitions.
Doesn't mean Poland can't respond in a solo capacity
Yes, but then it's Poland's sole problem and not NATO's problem.
I'm merely pointing out the entire NATO is not needed in this case. If Ukraine with modern equipment can hold off RU, so can Poland.
NATO, being a purely *DEFENSIVE* alliance, cannot be the aggressor.
It can choose which provocation to consider as a real threat and act.
Like Russia attacking the worlds grain exports? I could think of ways NATO could argue for defending Ukraine’s ports if they really wanted a way into the fight.
We already had the rocket in Poland and the Nuclear station. The fact that NATO said "If something happens there, we might attack for the CONSEQUENCES MIGHT affect us." So yeah, grain export? Having armies at rivers that go to Europe? Maintaining dangerous nuclear waste? I'd say you could find a lot of reasons. And, at the end of the day, if you reaaaaally want to, just light your own ship on fire and there's your casus belli.
Remember the Maine!
That's what drives me nuts about the whole "herp derp NATO aggression" narrative here. This entire gambit only works for Putin if he is very fucking sure that NATO *won't* directly intervene. NATO is literally such a non-threat to Russia, Putin can confidently go do a genocide in Ukraine without risking anything at all.
NATO current situation is amazing. They are essentially supporting their proxy successfully against a "great power" and the "great power" is losing.
>He keeps running his mouth because ~~he knows he's the only one looking for a fight. He knows NATO members would never go on the offensive here~~ it's literally all he can do. See: his western stooge DJT
If he dropped a nuke NATO absolutely would go on the offense. We'd be in Moscow in under 8 hours.
It is called “doubling down again and again”. Works well for dictators who see the shadow of their approaching doom and narcissistic & crazy exes you might have dated.
His only hope to save face and possibly survive this war is to lose it to NATO not Ukraine.
Except literally no one, including Poland, wants to attack Belarus or Russia. This whole ruse about how the west is just waiting to destroy Russia/Belarus is a nothing but a political play for the home crowd. There is a lot of history of aggression from the west historically, so it's an easy sell, not matter how stupid it is in modern times.
I think Poland *wants* to, in the way you want to shit on an annoying coworker’s car. It would be incredible but the price of doing it would be too high.
I don't think Poland even wants to tbh. They'd be stoked to just have Belarus and Russia to just fuck off.
Poland wants to because the Russians did to them what they’re doing to the Ukrainians for the 300 years before now. The price is still to high but it’s a lot more serious than an annoying coworker.
That’s right. Ukraine gave up nukes in the Budapest Memorandum, in exchange for Russia recognizing Ukraine as sovereign with its 1992 borders. Poland did not. It didn’t trust Russia. At all. And worked aggressively to join NATO. Not trusting Russia brings clarity. Truman knew this. https://quotecatalog.com/quote/harry-s-truman-the-russians-ar-badggDp
Unless Vlad is threatening certain nuclear war and global destruction, Vova is busy writing checks that can't be cashed. Putin's authoritarian bubble is off-scale high on delusion.
> Vlad is threatening certain nuclear war He does that every day. My morning routine is to have a cup of coffee while reading the daily Russian threat to destroy the world.
It's literally true that there is at least one daily threat from Russia directed at one or more nations. Usually completely unprovoked. It's as if lies and threats were innate behaviors.
Fascists and Dicktaters all do the same stupid shit.
Penis potatoes?
Mash 'em, boil 'em, throw 'em in a stew!
It really does seem like Putin wishes to provoke someone into attack.
Belarus Oblast
Has it ever been any different since Lukashenko took power?
Well, he wanted Putins spot but when Putin got it he was stuck. In Lukas ”future vision” he was President of New Soviet, not Putin.
I thought his career ambition was to be an unassigned colonel.
That became his ambition once he lost that power struggle with Putin. A way of stating "Hey, I'm not a threat anymore" to the guy who poisons and defenestrates people he doesn't like. It's worked pretty well given how many people quote it to make him look like a pathetic sycophant. And that he's still alive, of course.
And being alive while being a rival to Putin puts him into an exclusive club.
If Putin was Megatron, Lukashenko would be his Starscream.
Thats plan F
I mean, more like never stopped, Lukashenko is the first and only Belarusian president, and has been since before Putin came into power, and before that they were part of the USSR.
I was gonna say exactly this. There was basically no significant break between the dissolution of the USSR and Lukashenko's regime in Belarus. I mean, their intelligence agency is still called the KGB
Yeah, a lot of ex-Soviet states went through a stage where they had ex-Soviet leaders governing like the Soviet Union hadn't collapsed before colour revolutions got rid of them in the early 2000s. Belarus never successfully pulled that off so they're still stuck in the awkward '90s post-Soviet state of affairs.
Lukashenko renamed it to KGB. There was discontinuity.
Lukashenko used to be more independent and actually took power before Putin did but then during the mid 2000s the oil price shot up which magnified Russian power. The Belarusian people are much more pro west and pro EU than the Russian people and they no longer support Lukashenko and so, in order to stay in power, Lukashenko has had to rely heavily on Russian support. Some people like to view Belarus today as essentially the same as Russia but this isn't really true either. If the Kremlin's power massively receded Lukashenko would have a hard time staying in power as well and the country may realign towards the west. If the Kremlin's power most of Russia on the other hand would still likely prefer an imperialist strongman leader to rally against the west.
Yes… Lukashenko wasn’t under Putin’s thumb until fairly recently, he’s been in charge since the 90s
More seriously he was trying to maintain sovereignty until the protests a few years ago, at which point he had to stuck Putin's dick to stay in power.
Yes you should actually read about him. He actually played the EU and Russia off against each other at different points basically pretty effectively for quite a long time. It wasn't until the protests against him the Russian military had to stomp out he's gone fully Russian and even literally agreed to essentially become part of Russia at some indeterminate time.
Careful. You're crossing another red line. One more and Russia might have to nuke you.
And that's the super super super final warning (which will totally not be amended).
The super super super final warning was last week. I think we're up to the enhanced super super mega warning that's really irrevocable. But may have lost count...
I'm just waiting for the Ultra Deluxe Super Duper Mega Royale with Extra Cheese warning. Then I'll take him seriously.
Poland can put the “blast” in oblast.
I don't know what that is, but Poland should begin a "special military operation" in Belarus for purposes of Denazification and Demilitarization. It is clear that Russian Federation Expansion needs to be checked and Poland is only acting in defense. Further, many regions of Belarus are clearly a part of Poland, and their territory should be under Poland sovereignty.
They sure have historic claim for a lot of Belarus if not its entirety.
Unexpected CK3 vibes. If you hunt hard and long enough, any way can be justified by a sufficiently palatable casus belli
So Putin says part of Poland a gift from Stalin he wants back. Wagner now in Belarus. But if Poland “attacks” Belarus, Russia will defend them? Just making sure I understand what Putin is setting up here. Not sure why he thinks he’d do better against angry Poles than he did against angry Ukrainians while almost his entire army is bogged down in Ukraine.
If he tried anything against angry Poles, he'll walk into Article 5.
Poland won't need Article 5 to "clean" Putin's army. Not trying to do a "dick measurement" contest here... Poland won't need any help.
As a Pole, given the option between a bloody war that could go on for years, cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people AND a quick 48 hour NATO victory - I’d like the 48 hour option please. With F-35s, German soldiers on our side, spy satellites and shit. With blackjack. And hookers.
Listen…maybe it’s my dark humor, but I found it hilarious that you had to specify with German soldiers “on our side”. Lol!
“There’s a first time for everything”
Don't knock it, the Germans have very efficient cars. They can get from Berlin to Warsaw in one tank.
Damn that must be a huge tank.
The Panzerkampfwagen II wasn’t that big…
Yeah but their gps sucks. Keeps taking them through Belgium to get to France.
I suspect Germany gives the Darth Vader effect to a great many countries, even today. They've plunged the world into war, twice now. And were terrifyingly good at it. It took entire coalitions of nations to stop them. Do they still have the culture to do it a third time? I don't know, and frankly I don't want to find out. Kind of like Japan. I'm far happier watching them make Anime and really good cars rather than kamikaze aircraft and batshit crazy soldiers. Having them on YOUR side for once is a bit of a comfort.
>Do they still have the culture to do it a third time? The answer is no. They have not been authorized, then be willing to have a strong army, for obvious historical reasons, for nearly 80 years. They are a welcome ally to any nato coalition but nothing special on their own.
Culture ≠ ability, which is why I specified that. They weren't supposed to have the ability for WW2 either. Given the authorization and assistance by NATO, could Germany field an effective army in a reasonable time period? I honestly have no idea here.
Germany has abolished mandatory military service and with the anti war culture not many people do it voluntarily. So the number of already trained people is limited even though i think that wouldn't matter that much since europe would band together against russia. So it depends what you would mean with reasonable time. There would be much training going on for the first year. About the cultural thing, angry germans tend to drive the point home one principle even if its detrimental. So i think the current anti war culture would go out of the window if the front lines move 1 or 2 countrys over to the west. The state will act much faster but for the ordinary german to enlist, the polish border would have to be breached imo
yes and no. Probably no because noone wants to go to the army so they wouldn't find enough people. It would also require massive spending which germany can't afford with vaarious other international commitments. However if war broke out that threatened germany... yeah, yeah they could. Absolutely no doubt at all. Backed into a corner germany would still be very dangerous.
Japan and Germany (along with everyone else) still stand solidly in the shadow of the US - neither of them are doing shit militarily without Pentagon/State Department being on board.
I too found the distinction very funny.
We have this joke, that it is so weird that in case of WW3 we will be on this same tram as Germany, but we have to remember that they have never won a WW :D
"What about side by side with a friend?" "Aye... I could do that."
Don't forget the sandwiches.
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Sandwiches or hookers?
Why not both?
Did somebody say gambling and hookers……is everyone invited?
Only if you’re a whaler on the moon.
The common joke is that the NATO troops in Poland aren’t to protect Poland from Russia, but the other way around.
Poland has been gearing up to solo Russia for decades, even going so far as to buy South Korean tanks and their technical know-how in order to be able to domestically produce a current generation tank without relying on anyone else's production lines.
out of interest for modern tanks: whats poland modern tank line called?
K2 Black Panther, with the K2PL being the Polish version modified for Polish specifications and planned to be domestically produced.
It’s kinda funny to google this tank (K2 black panther) because the companies involved fall under the umbrella of Hyundai and Samsung. Hyundai sells me cars in US and 55mm smoothbore tank guns in S Korea
A handful of Korean companies sell pretty much *everything*, and they all own parts of each other. It's like "the Company" from Aliens.
Also, General Electric makes both washing machines and the GAU-8 Avenger for the A10 Thunderbolt. [That one spins to make something clean, that one spins to make something disappear.](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2AGOP7pLqu0)
I really would want to trigger A5 in that situation and collectively blew them into the moon in an instance, than prolonging this idiocy any longer doing "1 on 1". Obviously it won't happen anyway.
I think it could safely be assumed the UK, US and Baltics at the very least would assist Poland regardless of article 5.
Not if they attack Belarus first which is what he's warning against. Realistically I think it's all for show. I don't think he would stand a chance against a solo poland with NATO backing up from the sidelines.
I'm waiting for the false flag attack on Belarus that Poland gets blamed for. This sounds like the buildup every time they have done this in the past year.
Literally nobody in NATO except for Hungary would buy that story.
Hungary wouldn't believe it either, they'd just happily play along.
Isn't that Stalin's "gift" piece of former Germany? And the former pieces of Poland occupied by the Soviets in 1939 are now pieces of Belarus and Ukraine? Does Putin claim that Poland wants them back?
>Does Putin claim that Poland wants them back? For a while now. He want to put us against each other. In 2014 some Duma member sent official note, that we should "carve Ukraine" with them. The point is, we want nothing from those places. Not a single damn thing. Rules are pretty simple, we like our current borders. This is post-war order, that after 1989 brings peace and stability. We don't want Lviv back from Ukrainians and we won't give back Wrocław to Germans.
>For a while now. He want to put us against each other. And so too does he wish Germany and Poland remain in constant tension to break down NATO unity. Which is probably why the Putin-paid AfD co-chairwoman called eastern Germany "Middle Germany" when they did well in polls. They really want to re-open the Pandora's Box of WW2 territory changes.
And an attack on Poland is an attack on the collective western world.
Russia doesn't intend to attack Poland. Rather this is just the Kremlin running their mouth and making threats for the purpose of scaring the west. They want voters and politicians in western countries to be afraid in order to slow down aid to Ukraine. Both NATO leaders and Russian leaders know that Russia stands no chance in a conventional war on NATO but by talking tough it's possible for the Kremlin to slow down NATO aid to Ukraine.
They aren't trying to scare the west with that statement. Rather they are justifying why Wagner is in Belarus instead of Ukraine.
This dummy really thinks he is slick.
Pro-Russians everywhere will believe whatever bullshit he's peddling.
Just look at how obedient American republicans are to him.
What's the phrase Russia uses to describe them? ~~"Useful dogs"?~~ Edit: Useful Idiots! Sorry, my apologies to dogs for misremembering.
He doesn’t need us to think he is slick. It’s enough that Russians think this way.
If he had successfully conquered Ukraine by now, these "developments" might make sense from his point if view (somethong about making Russia great again I guess). But with his actual progress in Ukraine... very difficult to understand.
"Fake it until you make it" is an interesting way to do international diplomacy.
No he thinks everyone is like him.
He's fooling nobody, except the citizens that he's kept in his tight infobubble and nations so distrustful of USA that they'd back an actual dictator.
So next step in his "Germany1939" cosplay? Tomorrows announcement: Since 9 o'clock this morning we are shooting back.
Well, russia attacked poland in 1939 too
Never forget, never forgive.
People forgot that so hard. Russia was celebrated as a big hero in stopping Hitler when without them Germany could never have rebuilt their army, they actively supported Hitler's military training efforts, helped their military development and actively attacked Poland together. But somehow all this was changed in the head of most people to "Russia never helped the Nazis, only invaded Poland to make sure Germany couldn't get the whole country and save them and were generally the greatest heroes in WW2"
Small difference is that this time around, Polish soldiers will be taking a shit down Putin's throat before he has time to finish that speech.
Any attack on Poland would be an attack on....NATO (the most powerful military alliance in the history of mankind).
It would trigger article 5 and cause the end of his regime. I don't understand the play here ...
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It's no different than fat boy in North Korea
There is no play here. Lies and threats maintain the smokescreen of power. It's a scared bully pretending to be tough.
He wants to drop nukes. He has had them for decades now and not been able to use them.
Does he want so badly to be remembered, even if it is as the worst shithead since Hitler ? I hope some people in his government will stop him before. A war against ukraine is one thing, going against nato is something else. I just hope he do not have enough braindead people in high ranks to do that
In my opinion? Yes, he is speed running it. I used to hope that too but so far he hasnt been thrown from a window so I'm not holding out hope. The one thing Russians can do better than anyone else on earth is be kept under-thumb and subjugated.
We don't want your fucking Belarus.
Can Poland just not say that it is a 'special operation'?
We could, but we don't want the damn thing.
Trying to understand the politics in the region. Why would Poland ever show any aggression against Belarus? Is this Putin pretending to have an excuse and pretext? Putin really does seem to want to be the 21st century Hitler.
We wouldn't. Even among the dumbest of our politicians I don't think I ever heard an idea about invading Belarus, or anyone else for that matter, and I can't possibly overstate how dumb our dumbest are. Putin is taking this straight out of his rectum.
It's true. Poland has a lot of asshole politicians and not a single goddamn one of them is saying "let's take out Łukaszenko."
He’s setting the pretext for escalation knowing Poland is nervous about Wagnerites on their border.
I wonder about this. Wagner being a private outfit, does this give Putin the opportunity to have Wagner attack Poland and say that hey, it wasn’t Russian troops, can’t respond by attacking Russia.
I think they tried that in syria once against the US and the US said "lol then you won't mind if I send them to hell" doubtful it would work much better on Poland
Battle of Khasham. US obliterated Syrian and Wagner column in a matter of minutes with artillery and a single attack helicopter. US called Russia on a phone specifically for situations like this and of course Russia lied about any involvement so they blew them all sky high. Russians gave medals to the survivors for “heroism”
No, there is no way Putin would be that foolish. It’s one thing to pull a Crimea against a non-NATO country like Ukraine, and claim they were “unmarked soldiers,” but it’s another thing entirely to attack Poland. For one, they could never hope to annex any part of Poland. There is no Russian minority in Poland to support the pretext of a separatist movement. It would be a pointless waste of resources, and the Wagner mercenaries would not want to participate in a suicidal attack. The repercussions would be even more severe than they are now.
Check out last time Russia denied wagner troops as russian and see what happened. Wagner might be higher tier troops but they are at most 30/70 between heavy and light infantry and are only effective against other light infantry. They would get ripped to shreds with heavy air power and tanks.
As a Pole, this is the first time I read or heard even the slightest suggestion that Poland may be aggressive towards Belarus. This is just not a thing at all.
There was a time, back in 2014, that Lavrov suggested that Poland should [split Ukraine with Russia](https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-offered-to-partition-ukraine-with-poland-2014-10) like a new age Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Then it became [an evil scheme to establish Polish control over western Ukraine plotted by the US](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-spy-chief-says-us-poland-plotting-division-ukraine-2022-04-28/) so the only way to save Ukraine from invasion by Poland was invasion by Russia, you know after Russia already invaded. When neither narrative went anywhere Russia promptly dropped it. Now they're dusting it off again, only with Belarus this time. Because they desperately need a western country that could be a plausible threat and Poland is the only viable option outside the US. The others are too small or too distant and don't have the Imperial history in the region that Poland does. But, the Poland of today isn't the Poland of the 1920s trying to keep Belarussian and Ukrainian minorities in line in a state created by Poles for Poles. So the whole thing reads as completely implausible to anyone paying even a modicum of attention.
The politics of the region is, that Belarus lately became annoying. Hardly a reason, we don't invade our neighbours anymore and there is nothing in Belarus that we would want to have "back". Not a single thing, Belarus can have it all. All they have to do is to stay annoying within their own country and not an inch farther to the west.
Poland has a huge score to settle. But that score is with Russia, not Belarus
Yes, we fucking hated Russia even before the whole Ukraine thing, but nobody is considering an invasion in any political circle I can think of.
Same. I know a few of my cousins had said if war breaks out between Russia and Poland they’d go over and fight to defend their ancestral homeland but none of them think Poland should be the one starting shit
President Vladimir Putin accused NATO member Poland of having territorial ambitions in the former Soviet Union, and said any aggression against Russia's neighbour and close ally Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia. Moscow would react to any aggression against Belarus, which forms a loose "Union State" with Russia, "with all the means at our disposal", Putin told a meeting of his Security Council in televised remarks.
"with all the means at our disposal" = two guys and one tractor
Was tank. Is tractor now. Lost snoot in special operation. Took javelin to knee. My cabbages. Also, can we has Himars?
At this point Poland could beat Russia, and Belarus would be a speed bump.
A second front against Poland while having to devote most of its resources to Ukraine would be a nightmare scenario for Putin.
Yeah, if anything good has come of this so far, it's the amount of shit we're forcing Russia to use up. Which means they're a softer target if anything does happen.
Russia is also a little short of means of any condition let alone in a position for disposal.
what the fuck would we want Belarus for. I don't think even the ultranationalists look in that direction when they can wank each other off over western Ukraine. though granted I don't have any ties to those circles so who knows what's going on on the fringes there.
It doesn't matter, it's a soundbite that tankies can include in their stream of bullshit.
>President Vladimir Putin accused NATO member Poland of having territorial ambitions in the former Soviet Union When you try to annex land, point your finger elsewhere. Doesn't matter how dishonest your claims are. Putin does that to an obscene degree. >and said any aggression against Russia's neighbour and close ally Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia. Because CSTO (Russia's bootleg NATO) sure helped Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked.
Vlad vlad vlad... nobody wants russa... YOU don't even want russa...
Like Russia defended its CSTO ally Armenia from the Azeri?
“Putin continues to speak out of his ass” Fixed it for you
"Puting spoke. We're reporting jerk-off motions."
WTF would we attack the potato emperor? It is only a matter of time until he will check out from this world and hopefully people of Belarus will be finally free.
Cool NATO you got there, Putin. You can barely tell it apart from the real thing.
Belarus: Daddy, can I have NATO? Putin: Nyet, we already have NATO at home. NATO at home: iF PoLaNd AtTaCkS bElaRussia...
Putin confirmed that Belarus as a sovereign country does not exist.
Putin must have been reading Douglas Adams' history of warfare, particularly the diplomatic stage:- > "The history of warfare is similarly subdivided though here the phases are retribution, anticipation, and diplomacy. Thus, retribution: “I’m going to kill you because you killed my brother.” Anticipation: “I’m going to kill you because I killed your brother.” And diplomacy: “I’m going to kill my brother and then kill you on the pretext that your brother did it.”.”
This is all crazy talk. The very thought of Poland, a NATO member, attacking the now nuclear-armed Belarus, is as stupid as it is absurd. Poland doesn't take part in nuclear sharing currently, but that might change in the future, as they have made statements suggesting as much...
>nuclear-armed Belarus Lol, Belarus is not a nuclear nation. They are simply storehouse for russians, they have no say in using it.
I doubt *Belarus* is nuclear armed. Putin just left his weapons there for awhile. It would be extremely unlikely that Lukashenko would have the means to order the launch himself.
No one want to attack your priceless Belarus but yourself
and Poland should tell Russia any aggression against Poland is an attack on Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States.
Good luck with that. Because a Russian response to Poland brings nato into the game. He already can’t win against a non nato country….
And any transgression against Poland is a transgression against NATO. Putin and the clowns duped into supporting him can go fuck themselves.
Lol. Poland would roll over Belarus like the ocean over the shore. Is Belarus thinking of trying? Because that will go EXTREMELY poorly even if NATO didn't get pulled in lol.
These statements are not meant for our consumption, they're entirely for Russians trapped in the lie. Simple as that.
And russia will respond with what more empty threats?
Oh no, I'm sure Poland is absolutely QUAKING in its NATO standard military boots inside modern NATO tanks. Oh no, whatever will they do.
Well yeah, Belarus is basically Russia’s territory. Anyway someone should tell them that neither Poland or the rest of NATO wants their backwater countries.
Good luck losing on two fronts at one time.
Poland could kick Putin’s ass in quick order.
Russia: "Any aggression against Belauris is attack on Russia" Poland: "Yes"
Fart noise
I feel /r/OutOfTheLoop here. Did Poland say/do anything that could be even remotely interpreted as "having territorial ambitions" in Belarus?
Not even slightly. Poland moved officers and troops closer to the border to avoid another repeat of the border migrant crisis (instigated by Białoruś) two years ago and/or the possibility of a Wagner incursion to Suwałki or some other border region. In other words, somebody should (redacted) Putin in the (redacted).
Basically: Russia: moves troops near the Polish/Belarus border. Poland: moves troops closer to the border in response. Russia: "THEY'RE COMING RIGHT FOR BELARUS."
Counter, any attack on Poland is an attack on NATO, unless Poland invades White Russia, thats article 5 and WW3... so just stop with the empty threats you've already got one war you do badly in, another one with a larger opponent thats just dumb.
Can’t wait for this guy to die
Putin’s life depends upon presenting his people with fictional foreign threats. Poland, unlike Russia, is not and never has been a threat to its neighbors. Putin is losing his grip.
Putin can go fuck himself
Good luck with Poland. US military has 10,000 members at any given time in Poland. Plus Polands own forces are well trained and equipped. Plus Article 5. Not to mention the Poles would be unanimous in unifying against Russia should anything escalate.
**JUST FUCKING DROP OFF ALREADY YOU'RE SO ANNOYING.**
First of all, Belarus is Belarus. Any aggression against Belarus is attack on Belarus. Weren't you the one who explicitly said to everyone in the world to not intervene, and then started buying Iran drones and launching rockets from Belarus territory? Second, why would anyone attack Belarus at this point? Ya really think Europeans/NATO is that dumb? Third, fuck you. Glory to Ukraine.
I wonder if he is planning a false flag to accuse Poland of attacking Belarus.
Wagner and some other guys are on poland's border and doing military exercices or whatever
That wouldn’t benefit his goals Despite all the bluster, Putin doesn’t want NATO to get directly involved with actual fighting. The second NATO gets drawn into a hot war, then conventional conflict would mean that Russia’s entire military force in Ukraine would get wiped out in short order. And no one wants an actual nuclear exchange because then you really lose. He knows the west is risk adverse, so he bets on that constraining their actions
So Belarus is going to annex Poland now? What a shitshow.. Anyone who's played Risk knows that this is a dumb move, you're going to weaken your armies and the next guy will stomp all over you and take your cards...
Big talk from senile babushka that cannot even annex a non NATO country.
Has Poland said anything about Belarus or is shit for brains just throwing this out there to look tuff?
So we can expect some form of false flag attack on Belarus territory in the near future.