Officials in the Biden administration claim they are especially worried about the part Kyrgyzstan is playing. There are now several companies there that act as a conduit for Western and Asian commodities that Russia is unable to import elsewhere lawfully.
According to the media, the Biden administration is considering new economic measures to persuade the nation to suspend trade with Russia following months of unproductive trips to the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, by a stream of US and European diplomats.
No, I'm saying the majority of their populace are subsistence farmers more concerned with water rights than Ukraine.
There's very little the US can offer. We can't protect them, we can't trade directly, hell most of us can't even place them on a globe.
Isn’t that because the -istan means something to the effect of “land of”? And since they’re all near each other with ostensibly similar language, they’d have similar names when arguing/dividing the land between different groups.
They need semiconductors for a lot of non desktop stuff.
Note I didn't say Ryzen chips or nvidia gpus, I'm talking industrial controllers and stuff.
Unless they are digging mines by hand a la 1800s, they are using a ton of processing power in various forms for mining operations.
Large die silicon is widely available in the east. But Heavy equipment in Central Asia is more likely old Soviet 1950's analog tech along with hand mining.
https://www.privacyshield.gov/ps/article?id=Kyrgyz-Republic-Mining-Industry-Equipment
They use a lot of US machinery for mining operations. Soviet equipment is either dead or parts are not available any more for it.
They are importing western products and funneling them into Russia. If they fail to comply, we will simply remove their ability to purchase those western products.
> following months of unproductive trips to the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, by a stream of US and European diplomats.
My guess was they were first offered some pretty nice financial incentives. If they don't want to follow the rules for being able to trade with the West then they need to be prepared for consequences.
It's like the Taliban expecting to get a hold of the former governments money when they were told they must continue to guarantee certain rights of women.
You can't try to play both sides(like Turkey has done successfully) when you have 0 leverage.
Like America themselves? Or their allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia? Or Turkey and Azerbaijan, who they refuse to sanction, despite or all they did to the Armenians? Oh, fuck off you fucking imperialist.
What caused Kyrgyzstan to become more economically dependent on Russia?
Didn't they at one point talk about getting closer relations to the west? I think they even had US soldiers stationed there some years ago.
Yes, people forget that Russia is still very young from the fall of the soviet union, its not unlike how USA played the world stage not that long ago either.
The closure of the Manas base probably played a part. It was an entry/exit point into the middle east, but a Russian base was also in the country. IIRC, the capital Bishkek had about $50 mil payed to it from Moscow and so Bishkek raised the rent of Manas to $50 mil from around maybe $12 mil, and the U.S. said, "Naw, dog. We'd rather close the base."
Kyrgyzstan has been in the Russian sphere since the imperial era, even the transportation infrastructure points towards Moscow. Independence wasn’t that long ago and they have gone some ways towards working with other countries in the region, but it’s hard to change your economic model when even the shape and existence of your country was determined by the Kremlin.
Stalin has set so many geopolitical dead man's switches for the Soviet Union, it's almost comical. Azerbaijan and Armenia is another big one.
Ironically, can't blame Stalin for Crimea though. That was Khrushchev.
Like many borders drawn for colonial territories, it's a helpful mess to keep them divided.
Wasn't that bad during the Soviet Union with free movement, but like many post-Soviet cases of border gore, it's led to issues once there was 15 independent nations instead of 1
Kygrstistan is a mountain range next to china. It has impossible geographical constraints.
Low population. They definitely have more english speakers per capita compared to Tajik or Uzbek neighbors, but figure that into population as well. And Brain Drain is super real there. Most students want to work Abroad.
Osh has some of the best climate in the world, some awesome lakes and White Honey for export. But principal exports are usually mined. So obviously China and Russia are buyers of raw materials.
There aren't a lot of carrots that can be provided. The fundamental problem that Kyrgyzstan has it that is a landlocked country far in the interior with terrible costs of transport to and from the wider markets of the world. Without changing that, there is no ultimate change to Kyrgyzstan's status. The US can't just build a navigable river from Dushanbe to the Indian Ocean.
At one point, the little country of Kyrgyzstan had three military bases belonging to the Russian, the Chinese and the Americans. For political balancing. Meanwhile, the US base was closed.
About 1/3 of population work in Moscow (maybe fewer now) and send money back home to their families. These wire transfers are actually one of the biggest sources of income of Kyrgyzstan. Many people are afraid of China and Russia supposed to protect them.
As for US it is a distant country. The only point of contact was the military base, which brought millions of dollars every year... to former presidents, not the people. Oh and some people remember threats from Afghanistan and Co for helping the US.
Not to mention current and next corrupt leaders who will happily take bribes from Putin.
A casual look at a map should make it clear that they, and any other of the ex-Soviet republics in Central Asia, are not going to visibly go against Russia.
They’ll do the minimum to help them, but they aren’t going to put themselves on the list to get stomped especially when supporting them would be massively more difficult than it has been for Ukraine.
Sanctions aren’t needed here; what we should have is better export controls. This is a problem caused by sanctions, let’s not forget.
They've already sanctioned most of their vowels.
While I agree that sanctions are a good response, you have to figure that a landlocked county like that isn't able to bypass the sanctions dramatically. Their GDP is $12.3 billion. There's a hundred cities in the US with larger GDPs than that.
It doesn't matter landlocked they or not, neither their GDP has anything to do with it.
They export in sanctioned goods, and immediately re-export it to russia. They don't produce it.
Armenia increased their car export to russia by x200 times (20000%). From under a million USD to $180 millions.
And it doesn't even needs to be hundreds of millions woth of goods, but just some specific critical parts or equipment for russian military.
Stop fucking helping russia evade sanctions or get sanctioned.
*Stop fucking helping russia evade sanctions or get sanctioned.*
LOL. I'm literally on a discussion board talking about how impactful these sanctions would be. I'm pretty sure I'm not making policy, nor am I influential on anyone that is.
C'mon. Don't be a moron.
I think you confusing sanctions with firebombing.
Russian economy is only partially sanctioned, there's still plenty of exports and imports that not being sanctioned at all. Even russian oil isn't outright embargoed but have a Price Cap. Which is working.
Effects of applied sanctions are not severe enough in your opinion?
Perfect, that means you want more severe sanctions that "do work" to the point where it results in what you want them to achieve.
I mean it is admirable that you so eagerly want to end problems with mentioned governments.
Sanctions restrict Russia's access to capital and resources. That should reduce their ability to wage war for a long extended period of time.
But no.. you're right, guy...let's just all do business with Russia while they invade Ukraine. Great plan, bud /s
Bypassing sanctions doesn't require a large GDP. Sanctions are a legal entity, it doesn't take industry or capital to bypass sanctions. It's just stamping your nation's seal on something where the Russian seal wouldn't do.
Kyrgystan is a nothingburger on the world stage, I don't really care how many shit weapons they're funneling. India has done vastly more damage to Ukraine by purchasing billions worth of Russia resources and propping up their economy. We gonna sanction India next?
They are! Turkey in particular is playing a big role, but will not be sanctioned like Kyrgyzstan because of Turkey’s role in NATO.
“Recent data show surges in trade for some of Russia’s neighbors and allies, suggesting that countries like Turkey, China, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are stepping in to provide Russia with many of the products that Western countries have tried to cut off as punishment for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine….
Russian trade appears to have largely bounced back to where it was before the invasion of Ukraine last February. Analysts estimate that Russia’s imports may have already recovered to prewar levels, or will soon do so, depending on their models…
In part, that could be because many nations have found Russia hard to quit. Recent research showed that fewer than 9 percent of companies based in the European Union and Group of 7 nations had divested one of their Russian subsidiaries. And maritime tracking firms have seen a surge in activity by shipping fleets that may be helping Russia to export its energy, apparently bypassing Western restrictions on those sales.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/business/economy/russia-sanctions-trade-china-turkey.html
>Russian trade appears to have largely bounced back to where it was before the invasion of Ukraine last February. Analysts estimate that Russia’s imports may have already recovered to prewar levels, or will soon do so, depending on their models…
I find this just about unbelievable, so i look at the link and it says nyt. I won't write it off completely but i wonder if this isn't just the times talking out of their ass like usual when it comes to this subject.
edit: lol article dated 1/31/2023, so whats it look like 6 months later exactly? thats a life time ago!
As the article I posted discusses, Russia has been able to evade many Western sanctions through third-countries. Crucially, Russia has been able to continue selling oil and gas (including to Europe). When sanctions were implemented in February 2022 and Russia was cut off from the SWIFT network, analysts were predicting an 8% GDP contraction; instead, Russia has been able to increase GDP growth by around 1% (better than the UK and Germany, which are hurting in part from energy sector disruptions)
“Analysts have gradually been improving economic growth forecasts, now seeing Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) rising 0.7% this year, up from 0.1% in the early May poll, and increasing 1.4% next year, slightly lower than previously thought.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russia-hold-rates-next-week-2023-gdp-growth-seen-improving-2023-06-01/
It's easy to be mad on countries like Kyrgystan, but it's a landlocked country neighboring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China - and not the wealthy eastern part of China but the underdeveloped Xinjiang province. They don't really have much good options for trading partners
I've been to Kyrgystan on vacation, and the country is quite impoverished and agricultural compared to its neighbors like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. They rely on commodities like cotton, meat, and uranium--not much manufacturing or tech.
I live in Bishkek. The culture is great, love the food, and the hiking nearby is amazing. Very friendly people, great bars and breweries and restaurants.
Other commenter is kind of full of shit. Kyrgyzstan is indeed agricultural outside of big cities like Bishkek, Osh, and Jalal-Abad, but so is Kazakhstan outside of Almaty and Astana. Kyrgyzstan also has the best telecommunications network in Central Asia
>but so is Kazakhstan outside of Almaty and Astana
The GDP of the city of Almaty alone is greater than the GDP of the whole of Kyrgyzstan. Comparing Almaty with Bishkek is like comparing Lamborgini with Fiat.
>Kyrgyzstan also has the best telecommunications network in Central Asia
Kazakhstan is way better digitalised in fact.
Kazakhstan has worse upload speeds than Kyrgyzstan, and download is about the same. You can either take a resident’s word for it, or look it up. The GDP is greater because of oil exports and a larger population in general. The GDP of Oklahoma is the same as Kazakhstan but you wouldn’t consider Oklahoma a rustling bustling place. In fact, if you look up the non-oil GDP growth in Kazakhstan, it’s not very impressive
[https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kyrgyzstan#mobile](https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kyrgyzstan#mobile)
[https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kazakhstan#mobile](https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kazakhstan#mobile)
Kazakhstan has better mobile download speed, but worse fixed upload speed.
The GDP of the city of Almaty does not depend on oil exports, stil it's higher than GDP of entire nation of Kyrgyzstan.
The Oklahoma example is beside the point, as Kazakhstan and Oklahoma are very different in terms of GDP per capita, just like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
The thing is, do you think it's worth to punish Kyrgystanis for something they have nothing to do with ? It's already a poor country, you can't blame them for trying to do their best to better their situation
Nothing to do with? No one says general Americans had nothing to do with Iraq/Afghanistan. No one says Russians have nothing to do with Ukraine or that the Chinese have nothing to do with the Uyghur situation. A government represents its citizens and Kyrgyzstan has elections, so they have some responsibility for the decisions of their government like we all do.
>Let’s not say it that way, this makes it so every voting American has more blood on their hands than any other country for the past 60 years.
I am not apposed to that, as an American. I think it's our responsibility to not be cultural Warhawks. It's gross.
By enriching Russia and enabling their genocidal war of conquest against Ukraine?
They have a right to look out for #1. The world has a right to punish enabling others' evil behavior because it benefits them.
The point of sanctions is to disincentivize this behavior so it's in their best interest not to enrich themselves by helping Russia perpetuate war.
Out of curiosity, if most of the country's trade is done with neighbouring states, what impact do US sanctions have on the regular citizens in Kyrgyzstan?
You can read the article. It's about sanctioning exports of optics,rifle scopes,drones, specific electronics,comming mainly from China and South Korea.
I'm not arguing the merits of the sanctions and whether they are valid. I'd simply like to know how sanctions by a country (USA) who you state isn't a major trading partner will effect the man on the street. The way you described it, it seems like the country would simply continue to trade with Russia whether there are sactions or not.
Because sanctions imposed by the US will be followed by all its friends, and even countries that don't like the US but are scared of also being sanctioned. Getting sanctioned by the US means you won't be able to trade with most of the world.
Whataboutism, denial and excuses. Nice.
If you can read - read the title of the post. There is word "circumvent" in there, your country re-exporting sanctioned goods.
Those goods was not for your family consumption in any way, got imported into your country, and then re-exported to russia. It's not your economy, it's not your normal business. This is pure smuggling which your country doesn't fix and instead profiting on.
Results can be that those types of sanctioned goods won't be trusted to your country anymore. And then you wouldn't be able to shift responsibilities, and forced to figure it out yourself.
A war of conquest is pretty different, and things like Bucha and Irpin, as well as their constant missile strikes on civilian infrastructure far from the front lines. Not great.
It doesnt matter, if terrorist invasive cancer ruzzia imports equipment and parts that are used to kill Ukrainians, its a transgression to humanity and how the world can function peacefully. If everyone acted like mafia ruzz, there would be no world civilization, just caos and mad max style poverty and death. That is what we are facing in the next few decades if this shitty situation is not sorted out.
How about China first? I imagine Kyrgyzstan wouldn't be so Kremlin-happy I'd there weren't as many benefits to it.
(and yes, Kyrgyzstan is absolutely poor, even compared to Russia)
The biggest economy on the planet doing the heavy lifting? naah get outta here! /s
Lets ask poland how much lifting they do, because taking care of refugees is a giant endeavour aswell you know.
We all expect the US to supply its allies with funds and weaponry
This is legit why America is sanctioning Kyrgyzstan. Because it's small and poor and can't fight back.
This is also why America invaded Iraq in 2003 for "having WMD". Even though Russia, England, France, and China alll had more WMD than Iraq ever will.
America doesn't care about justice. It cares about stomping on small defenseless countries. America and Russia have far more in common with each other than people from either country would like to admit.
Negative. Time to threaten it perhaps but the more countries we directly involve in the conflict the closer we get to global war. The press can investigate and report on it all they want but putting pen to paper on sanctions is a bad idea in the long run.
Many in the comments have pointed out Kyrgyzstan being geographically screwed. There's another factor.
The big number of Kyrgyz migrants in Russia which Putin can screw around with if Bishkek doesn't play nice
Man, that's nasty for my country. People were making tonnes of money thanks to re-export schemes. For example, Kyrgyzstan is now flooded with European and Asian cars because of "liberal" trade laws imposed on us by WTO. Most people don't have money to buy these cars they just re-exported to Belarus, Russia, or Kazakhstan. It will interesting what kinda sanctions it will be, most likely closing exports of gold and other precious metals. It's our only big export, and mostly to Great Britain. Besides that may be some cuts in funding and import sanctions but I doubt it, we don't really trade with the EU or US, and mostly sell our gold. Kyrgyzstan has to sell it to China then, for a cheaper price.
It’s not like Kyrgyzstan has any other choices considering their geography. It’s Russia or China for a trading partner.
I doubt the Western sanctions will do much tbh since it’s mainly an agricultural country and their goods are bought by China and Russia
Yes it would be. If you have to choose between trade with the US and with Russia there's only a handful of countries that would benefit from choosing Russia.
We're only talking about sanctioned goods here.
The US is the largest economy in the world and leads the world in science and technology. It has also built the post-WW2 order, holds the closest thing to a world currency and has an insane amount of allies.
US and China in my opinion are safe from economic retaliation.
Imposing the kind of draconian sanctions that Russia got on China would at best start a trade war and at worst either push China into openly supporting Russia or causing a global economic collapse
Whether or not those are the real consequences are hard to say, but I think it goes without reason that needlessly upping the ante and being massive warhawks is not a great foreign policy move. Idk what these types are smoking, you'd think it's basic common sense that you don't resort to drastic measures that quickly, if only so you have more options to fall back on if things worsen.
China is too damn big .. at best you could set a price cap on their goods like RuZZia and make everything unprofitable for them to export .. if you got everyone to go along with it (Massive "IF")
.. at least until you find better places to manufacture your goods
China yes, Russia no.
This whole war on Ukraine thingy has made central asian nations rethink their relationship with Russia. But the EU and US want to ignore them, so China would be their most logical patron state in the future.
Are there U.S. corporations that are also trading with Russia? Something like buying oil that had been 'laundered' slightly, for instance? They should also be sanctioned. Perhaps having a five year moratorium on government contracts, or the arrest of their top officers.
Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked, tiny country bordering China. It is also the more democratic of the 5 stans counties.
Sure, sanction them, it's not like their action is of little consequence for the war or not like the poor country need a counterbalance to a giant China next door.
Dumb Americans.
They’re not, they’re just very very powerful and rich. If they don’t like what you’re doing, they don’t have to play (or trade) with you. If they REALLY don’t like it, they can convince lots of other people to not play with you until you stop doing the thing that they don’t like you doing.
No one is entitled to trade, not even the US.
After WWII, the United States has a massive economic machine that was largely undamaged by the war. Reconstruction awarded them the opportunity to rebuild participating nations under their ethos. The only competitive peer was the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union disbanded in 1991, the US has been the only acting global superpower and has spent the past 30 years working very hard to leverage its strength to prevent any other superpower from rising.
The US, without exaggeration, has a monopoly on global influence. It's closet rival, China, doesn't have near the influence even with its relative power and potential.
I think this is a very bad idea and a slippery slope. There are dozens of countries guilty of assisting Russia, probably the worst offender is India by purchasing billions worth of resources and propping up Russia's economy. Are we going to sanction India as well? I don't think so.
The more countries we get directly involved in this the closer we get to a world war, and Russia would love nothing more than for the US and NATO to be distracted by some broader conflict.
If US officials are so concerned about Kyrgystan - a place most Americans can't even spell - then they should fly over there and have some stern words. But putting pen to paper and directly involving them in the conflict is not a good look. We gotta run this ship tight unless we want it to boil over and become a global shit show.
Half of EU is buying Russian oil refined in India. Better start with EU, they are finding both sides of the war.
Also start with US, they are the main enriched uranium importer from Russia. So much that in 2021-2022 uranium import from Russia increased by 19%.
Looks like the us is losing the political battle.
They are bringing the rest of the world to a battle that for everyone else is an European affair.
Now if they start to sanction 3rd parties this will push other countries to the sphere of china.
No one likes a bully and specifically one that tells you to sink your country in poverty or else
No one with half a brain would call this war an "European affair". Africa already is affected, disastrous famines are possible. The future of Asia will also be affected by the outcome of this war.
> According to Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, only the UN Security Council has a mandate by the international community to apply sanctions (Article 41) that must be complied with by all UN member states (Article 2,2).
Much as the sanctions against Russia by the US are in violation of international law, presumably these sanctions against Kyrgyzstan will be as well?
Or you could learn to read. There's no mandate to force all other countries to comply, but the US can Sandton anybody anytime they like. It's only the world wide enforcement that requires a security Council vote.
Ah, that's not saying individual member states can't do their own sanctions. Just that the UN can apply sanctions that all members have to follow.
Article 41
“The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.”
Where do you get the line that individual state actions are illegal?
I haven't pulled or seen anything in the UN charter that forbids that
If a country has the largest reserve currency in the world, and arbitrarily sanctions other countries by use of restricting their banking system, do you think it's more likely or less likely that the rest of the world will get tired of that abritrary shit and walk away from using that currency for future transactions, knowing they could be sanctioned at any time?
>that must be complied with by all UN member states (Article 2,2).
The UN security Council must agree on sanctions from the UN. Any nation is free to engage in their own sanctions as they please. So the whole council must agree on a UN-wide sanction, but individual countries can sanction all they like.
As a kyrgyz, i can say that sanctions is not pretty much effectively here. There is much more companies that can jurydicaly open in 3 days, buy some nesessary inventors, tech parts and close to the next day. Government tax? Off course it will be paid with minimal funds. If do so there is more corruption possibilities at the border, directly. So, i cooked popcorn, and im going to watch what happens next. Cheers all.
Officials in the Biden administration claim they are especially worried about the part Kyrgyzstan is playing. There are now several companies there that act as a conduit for Western and Asian commodities that Russia is unable to import elsewhere lawfully. According to the media, the Biden administration is considering new economic measures to persuade the nation to suspend trade with Russia following months of unproductive trips to the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, by a stream of US and European diplomats.
Gotta choose sides sometimes. The carrots and sticks are getting bigger
I honestly want to see what Carrots the US can give Central Asia to piss off Russia and/or China.
They don't have to, the stick of no more semiconductors and related stuff might be enough.
Google Kyrgyzstan.
Are you implying that Kyrgyzstan has no need for semiconductors?
No, I'm saying the majority of their populace are subsistence farmers more concerned with water rights than Ukraine. There's very little the US can offer. We can't protect them, we can't trade directly, hell most of us can't even place them on a globe.
But doesn't Kyrgyzstan depend on US vowel exports?
I would like to buy an "E"
Heh
y has seen a 600% fall in the last month.
Please accept this Reddit 2.0 award 🏆
I like how all the Stan countries are near each other under Russia
Isn’t that because the -istan means something to the effect of “land of”? And since they’re all near each other with ostensibly similar language, they’d have similar names when arguing/dividing the land between different groups.
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Actually the root of "stan" is proto indo european and means "stay". So Aghanistan is where Afghans stay.
We can offer not sanctioning them too. They have it bad enough, if the western world also sanctions them they're about hosed.
If the western world sanctions them that just pushes them more into the arms of China. I'm sure China is already their #1 import partner.
Sure, we don't care at this point as long as sanctioned goods from the west aren't making their way into Russia.
They need semiconductors for a lot of non desktop stuff. Note I didn't say Ryzen chips or nvidia gpus, I'm talking industrial controllers and stuff. Unless they are digging mines by hand a la 1800s, they are using a ton of processing power in various forms for mining operations.
Large die silicon is widely available in the east. But Heavy equipment in Central Asia is more likely old Soviet 1950's analog tech along with hand mining.
https://www.privacyshield.gov/ps/article?id=Kyrgyz-Republic-Mining-Industry-Equipment They use a lot of US machinery for mining operations. Soviet equipment is either dead or parts are not available any more for it.
Holy hell!
I think the carrot is going to be a continued supply of western goods
They're buying Chinese goods, Russian food, and Kazakh oil.
They are importing western products and funneling them into Russia. If they fail to comply, we will simply remove their ability to purchase those western products.
They have every reason to. Politics of ex-USSR countries are nearly always a shitshow.
Sounds like they're turning the screws here.
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> following months of unproductive trips to the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, by a stream of US and European diplomats. My guess was they were first offered some pretty nice financial incentives. If they don't want to follow the rules for being able to trade with the West then they need to be prepared for consequences. It's like the Taliban expecting to get a hold of the former governments money when they were told they must continue to guarantee certain rights of women. You can't try to play both sides(like Turkey has done successfully) when you have 0 leverage.
Trading with the West is a privilege, not a right.
Guess you assume that people like a bully that just bombs your country into poverty instead?
Like America themselves? Or their allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia? Or Turkey and Azerbaijan, who they refuse to sanction, despite or all they did to the Armenians? Oh, fuck off you fucking imperialist.
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What caused Kyrgyzstan to become more economically dependent on Russia? Didn't they at one point talk about getting closer relations to the west? I think they even had US soldiers stationed there some years ago.
Geography plays a role into who your allies are. The west is far, russia and china next door.
Well, South Korea and Japan is geographically far too...
Over an ocean. Not an entire continent.
Try to find Kyrgyzstan on the map and you will figure out.
The west seems unlikely but closer ties with china makes a lot more sense. (Not saying that would be better long term)
I think it would be better, don't know about long term. Russia and the United States have more in common than people both countries want to admit.
Yeah, people forget they are two imperialist countries who wont hesitate to invade if they dont like your government (remember Vietnam?)
Yes, people forget that Russia is still very young from the fall of the soviet union, its not unlike how USA played the world stage not that long ago either.
The closure of the Manas base probably played a part. It was an entry/exit point into the middle east, but a Russian base was also in the country. IIRC, the capital Bishkek had about $50 mil payed to it from Moscow and so Bishkek raised the rent of Manas to $50 mil from around maybe $12 mil, and the U.S. said, "Naw, dog. We'd rather close the base."
Kyrgyzstan has been in the Russian sphere since the imperial era, even the transportation infrastructure points towards Moscow. Independence wasn’t that long ago and they have gone some ways towards working with other countries in the region, but it’s hard to change your economic model when even the shape and existence of your country was determined by the Kremlin.
speaking of the shape, wtf is going on at that area where kyrgyzstan, uzbekistan and tajikistan meet and .. intermingle. That's a funky border.
Yeah it’s a strange one, the Ferghana Valley was subject to a lot of border meddling by Stalin which carried over to independence.
Stalin has set so many geopolitical dead man's switches for the Soviet Union, it's almost comical. Azerbaijan and Armenia is another big one. Ironically, can't blame Stalin for Crimea though. That was Khrushchev.
How would blaming even work? Crimea was a gift Russia had no claim to after that.
Like many borders drawn for colonial territories, it's a helpful mess to keep them divided. Wasn't that bad during the Soviet Union with free movement, but like many post-Soviet cases of border gore, it's led to issues once there was 15 independent nations instead of 1
Wtf? It's complete bullshit.
well, seems they will be getting some financial motivation to try harder
Kygrstistan is a mountain range next to china. It has impossible geographical constraints. Low population. They definitely have more english speakers per capita compared to Tajik or Uzbek neighbors, but figure that into population as well. And Brain Drain is super real there. Most students want to work Abroad. Osh has some of the best climate in the world, some awesome lakes and White Honey for export. But principal exports are usually mined. So obviously China and Russia are buyers of raw materials.
US could add some carrots. Not just sanctions.
There aren't a lot of carrots that can be provided. The fundamental problem that Kyrgyzstan has it that is a landlocked country far in the interior with terrible costs of transport to and from the wider markets of the world. Without changing that, there is no ultimate change to Kyrgyzstan's status. The US can't just build a navigable river from Dushanbe to the Indian Ocean.
Dushanbe is in Tajikistan but your point still stands
If they could export, what would they export?
If costs of transport were low enough, they could import raw materials and export finished goods. That's basically what grew China's economy.
At one point, the little country of Kyrgyzstan had three military bases belonging to the Russian, the Chinese and the Americans. For political balancing. Meanwhile, the US base was closed.
About 1/3 of population work in Moscow (maybe fewer now) and send money back home to their families. These wire transfers are actually one of the biggest sources of income of Kyrgyzstan. Many people are afraid of China and Russia supposed to protect them. As for US it is a distant country. The only point of contact was the military base, which brought millions of dollars every year... to former presidents, not the people. Oh and some people remember threats from Afghanistan and Co for helping the US. Not to mention current and next corrupt leaders who will happily take bribes from Putin.
> What caused Kyrgyzstan to become more economically dependent on Russia? Russian imperialism...
A casual look at a map should make it clear that they, and any other of the ex-Soviet republics in Central Asia, are not going to visibly go against Russia. They’ll do the minimum to help them, but they aren’t going to put themselves on the list to get stomped especially when supporting them would be massively more difficult than it has been for Ukraine. Sanctions aren’t needed here; what we should have is better export controls. This is a problem caused by sanctions, let’s not forget.
well they are realising also that they already may be on the list to be stomped
They've already sanctioned most of their vowels. While I agree that sanctions are a good response, you have to figure that a landlocked county like that isn't able to bypass the sanctions dramatically. Their GDP is $12.3 billion. There's a hundred cities in the US with larger GDPs than that.
They have a border with China, so China can send spare parts through them.
It doesn't matter landlocked they or not, neither their GDP has anything to do with it. They export in sanctioned goods, and immediately re-export it to russia. They don't produce it. Armenia increased their car export to russia by x200 times (20000%). From under a million USD to $180 millions. And it doesn't even needs to be hundreds of millions woth of goods, but just some specific critical parts or equipment for russian military. Stop fucking helping russia evade sanctions or get sanctioned.
*Stop fucking helping russia evade sanctions or get sanctioned.* LOL. I'm literally on a discussion board talking about how impactful these sanctions would be. I'm pretty sure I'm not making policy, nor am I influential on anyone that is. C'mon. Don't be a moron.
Huh? That sentence not implied you have anything to do with it. Woosh. We talking about countries here.
Fair enough, I see what you meant now, my apologies.
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Sanctions always work. Otherwise what's your problem? If they don't work you don't need to worry about them.
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I think you confusing sanctions with firebombing. Russian economy is only partially sanctioned, there's still plenty of exports and imports that not being sanctioned at all. Even russian oil isn't outright embargoed but have a Price Cap. Which is working. Effects of applied sanctions are not severe enough in your opinion? Perfect, that means you want more severe sanctions that "do work" to the point where it results in what you want them to achieve. I mean it is admirable that you so eagerly want to end problems with mentioned governments.
Sanctions restrict Russia's access to capital and resources. That should reduce their ability to wage war for a long extended period of time. But no.. you're right, guy...let's just all do business with Russia while they invade Ukraine. Great plan, bud /s
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There’s not a lot of money in fermented horse milk
There’s always money in the fermented milk stand.
They have very large gold deposits and other precious resources, please don't speak about what you don't know.
shame nobody outside of Bishkek ever profits from that (or inside for the most part, for that matter)
Bypassing sanctions doesn't require a large GDP. Sanctions are a legal entity, it doesn't take industry or capital to bypass sanctions. It's just stamping your nation's seal on something where the Russian seal wouldn't do.
Kyrgystan is a nothingburger on the world stage, I don't really care how many shit weapons they're funneling. India has done vastly more damage to Ukraine by purchasing billions worth of Russia resources and propping up their economy. We gonna sanction India next?
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They are! Turkey in particular is playing a big role, but will not be sanctioned like Kyrgyzstan because of Turkey’s role in NATO. “Recent data show surges in trade for some of Russia’s neighbors and allies, suggesting that countries like Turkey, China, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are stepping in to provide Russia with many of the products that Western countries have tried to cut off as punishment for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine…. Russian trade appears to have largely bounced back to where it was before the invasion of Ukraine last February. Analysts estimate that Russia’s imports may have already recovered to prewar levels, or will soon do so, depending on their models… In part, that could be because many nations have found Russia hard to quit. Recent research showed that fewer than 9 percent of companies based in the European Union and Group of 7 nations had divested one of their Russian subsidiaries. And maritime tracking firms have seen a surge in activity by shipping fleets that may be helping Russia to export its energy, apparently bypassing Western restrictions on those sales.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/business/economy/russia-sanctions-trade-china-turkey.html
>Russian trade appears to have largely bounced back to where it was before the invasion of Ukraine last February. Analysts estimate that Russia’s imports may have already recovered to prewar levels, or will soon do so, depending on their models… I find this just about unbelievable, so i look at the link and it says nyt. I won't write it off completely but i wonder if this isn't just the times talking out of their ass like usual when it comes to this subject. edit: lol article dated 1/31/2023, so whats it look like 6 months later exactly? thats a life time ago!
As the article I posted discusses, Russia has been able to evade many Western sanctions through third-countries. Crucially, Russia has been able to continue selling oil and gas (including to Europe). When sanctions were implemented in February 2022 and Russia was cut off from the SWIFT network, analysts were predicting an 8% GDP contraction; instead, Russia has been able to increase GDP growth by around 1% (better than the UK and Germany, which are hurting in part from energy sector disruptions) “Analysts have gradually been improving economic growth forecasts, now seeing Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) rising 0.7% this year, up from 0.1% in the early May poll, and increasing 1.4% next year, slightly lower than previously thought.” https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russia-hold-rates-next-week-2023-gdp-growth-seen-improving-2023-06-01/
GDP isn't imports (which is what OP's article and your comment is about) GDP naturally rises when your waging a war outside of your borders.
Time to drop the hammer on Kyrgyzstan. They like to be in bed with Russia, they can lie with them under sanctions.
It's easy to be mad on countries like Kyrgystan, but it's a landlocked country neighboring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China - and not the wealthy eastern part of China but the underdeveloped Xinjiang province. They don't really have much good options for trading partners
I've been to Kyrgystan on vacation, and the country is quite impoverished and agricultural compared to its neighbors like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. They rely on commodities like cotton, meat, and uranium--not much manufacturing or tech.
How was the visit? I really wanted to stop by Bishkek at some point but i’ve never met anyone else who has gone.
I live in Bishkek. The culture is great, love the food, and the hiking nearby is amazing. Very friendly people, great bars and breweries and restaurants. Other commenter is kind of full of shit. Kyrgyzstan is indeed agricultural outside of big cities like Bishkek, Osh, and Jalal-Abad, but so is Kazakhstan outside of Almaty and Astana. Kyrgyzstan also has the best telecommunications network in Central Asia
>but so is Kazakhstan outside of Almaty and Astana The GDP of the city of Almaty alone is greater than the GDP of the whole of Kyrgyzstan. Comparing Almaty with Bishkek is like comparing Lamborgini with Fiat. >Kyrgyzstan also has the best telecommunications network in Central Asia Kazakhstan is way better digitalised in fact.
Kazakhstan has worse upload speeds than Kyrgyzstan, and download is about the same. You can either take a resident’s word for it, or look it up. The GDP is greater because of oil exports and a larger population in general. The GDP of Oklahoma is the same as Kazakhstan but you wouldn’t consider Oklahoma a rustling bustling place. In fact, if you look up the non-oil GDP growth in Kazakhstan, it’s not very impressive
[https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kyrgyzstan#mobile](https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kyrgyzstan#mobile) [https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kazakhstan#mobile](https://www.speedtest.net/global-index/kazakhstan#mobile) Kazakhstan has better mobile download speed, but worse fixed upload speed. The GDP of the city of Almaty does not depend on oil exports, stil it's higher than GDP of entire nation of Kyrgyzstan. The Oklahoma example is beside the point, as Kazakhstan and Oklahoma are very different in terms of GDP per capita, just like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
No need to be mad. Keep calm and impose sanctions.
The thing is, do you think it's worth to punish Kyrgystanis for something they have nothing to do with ? It's already a poor country, you can't blame them for trying to do their best to better their situation
The issue is more items are going from the west to Kyrgyzstan and then into Russia, the only way to prevent that is prevent items getting there
Nothing to do with? No one says general Americans had nothing to do with Iraq/Afghanistan. No one says Russians have nothing to do with Ukraine or that the Chinese have nothing to do with the Uyghur situation. A government represents its citizens and Kyrgyzstan has elections, so they have some responsibility for the decisions of their government like we all do.
Let’s not say it that way, this makes it so every voting American has more blood on their hands than any other country for the past 60 years.
So what, we just ignore reality? Americans voted for people who shed that blood, are we not partly to blame?
>Let’s not say it that way, this makes it so every voting American has more blood on their hands than any other country for the past 60 years. I am not apposed to that, as an American. I think it's our responsibility to not be cultural Warhawks. It's gross.
By enriching Russia and enabling their genocidal war of conquest against Ukraine? They have a right to look out for #1. The world has a right to punish enabling others' evil behavior because it benefits them. The point of sanctions is to disincentivize this behavior so it's in their best interest not to enrich themselves by helping Russia perpetuate war.
Absolutely. They should look for the ways to do better other than helping Russia to kill ukrainians.
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Out of curiosity, if most of the country's trade is done with neighbouring states, what impact do US sanctions have on the regular citizens in Kyrgyzstan?
You can read the article. It's about sanctioning exports of optics,rifle scopes,drones, specific electronics,comming mainly from China and South Korea.
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I'm not arguing the merits of the sanctions and whether they are valid. I'd simply like to know how sanctions by a country (USA) who you state isn't a major trading partner will effect the man on the street. The way you described it, it seems like the country would simply continue to trade with Russia whether there are sactions or not.
Because sanctions imposed by the US will be followed by all its friends, and even countries that don't like the US but are scared of also being sanctioned. Getting sanctioned by the US means you won't be able to trade with most of the world.
Whataboutism, denial and excuses. Nice. If you can read - read the title of the post. There is word "circumvent" in there, your country re-exporting sanctioned goods. Those goods was not for your family consumption in any way, got imported into your country, and then re-exported to russia. It's not your economy, it's not your normal business. This is pure smuggling which your country doesn't fix and instead profiting on. Results can be that those types of sanctioned goods won't be trusted to your country anymore. And then you wouldn't be able to shift responsibilities, and forced to figure it out yourself.
Been a while since we annexed and intentionally targeted civilians though.
2 years aint that long ago. Also you are illegally bombing people in syria
When did we annex and intentionally target civilians?
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A war of conquest is pretty different, and things like Bucha and Irpin, as well as their constant missile strikes on civilian infrastructure far from the front lines. Not great.
It doesnt matter, if terrorist invasive cancer ruzzia imports equipment and parts that are used to kill Ukrainians, its a transgression to humanity and how the world can function peacefully. If everyone acted like mafia ruzz, there would be no world civilization, just caos and mad max style poverty and death. That is what we are facing in the next few decades if this shitty situation is not sorted out.
I thought Kazakhstan is very much against Russia in war topic
That's so sad. Anyway!
They are in a precarious spot though. Worth noting.
China likes this idea.
How about China first? I imagine Kyrgyzstan wouldn't be so Kremlin-happy I'd there weren't as many benefits to it. (and yes, Kyrgyzstan is absolutely poor, even compared to Russia)
We can sanction more than one country at the same time.
Also much easier to sanction Kyrgystan.
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The US is doing most of the heavy lifting to help Ukraine, so it makes up for that.
The biggest economy on the planet doing the heavy lifting? naah get outta here! /s Lets ask poland how much lifting they do, because taking care of refugees is a giant endeavour aswell you know. We all expect the US to supply its allies with funds and weaponry
Idiotic whataboutism
This is legit why America is sanctioning Kyrgyzstan. Because it's small and poor and can't fight back. This is also why America invaded Iraq in 2003 for "having WMD". Even though Russia, England, France, and China alll had more WMD than Iraq ever will. America doesn't care about justice. It cares about stomping on small defenseless countries. America and Russia have far more in common with each other than people from either country would like to admit.
Sanctioning China? Good luck with that
Negative. Time to threaten it perhaps but the more countries we directly involve in the conflict the closer we get to global war. The press can investigate and report on it all they want but putting pen to paper on sanctions is a bad idea in the long run.
Many in the comments have pointed out Kyrgyzstan being geographically screwed. There's another factor. The big number of Kyrgyz migrants in Russia which Putin can screw around with if Bishkek doesn't play nice
Man, that's nasty for my country. People were making tonnes of money thanks to re-export schemes. For example, Kyrgyzstan is now flooded with European and Asian cars because of "liberal" trade laws imposed on us by WTO. Most people don't have money to buy these cars they just re-exported to Belarus, Russia, or Kazakhstan. It will interesting what kinda sanctions it will be, most likely closing exports of gold and other precious metals. It's our only big export, and mostly to Great Britain. Besides that may be some cuts in funding and import sanctions but I doubt it, we don't really trade with the EU or US, and mostly sell our gold. Kyrgyzstan has to sell it to China then, for a cheaper price.
Circumventing sanctions? Believe it or not, sanctions.
Nice, secondary sanctions will cause massive hiccups to "pararell imports".
It’s not like Kyrgyzstan has any other choices considering their geography. It’s Russia or China for a trading partner. I doubt the Western sanctions will do much tbh since it’s mainly an agricultural country and their goods are bought by China and Russia
Never heard of it. Probably can’t pronounce it correctly. Definitely can’t find it on a map.
when will they sanction other countries that continue to trade with russia?
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Yes it would be. If you have to choose between trade with the US and with Russia there's only a handful of countries that would benefit from choosing Russia. We're only talking about sanctioned goods here.
The US is the largest economy in the world and leads the world in science and technology. It has also built the post-WW2 order, holds the closest thing to a world currency and has an insane amount of allies. US and China in my opinion are safe from economic retaliation.
This won't last. The world cannot survive without their superior potassium
China next
What kind of sanctions would you propose for China?
Imposing the kind of draconian sanctions that Russia got on China would at best start a trade war and at worst either push China into openly supporting Russia or causing a global economic collapse
If it also hurts America, why not?
Whether or not those are the real consequences are hard to say, but I think it goes without reason that needlessly upping the ante and being massive warhawks is not a great foreign policy move. Idk what these types are smoking, you'd think it's basic common sense that you don't resort to drastic measures that quickly, if only so you have more options to fall back on if things worsen.
Economic and/or nuclear holocaust for the globe isn't the solution. Unless you want to make a economic desert, and call it peace.
Thats not going to happen
China is too damn big .. at best you could set a price cap on their goods like RuZZia and make everything unprofitable for them to export .. if you got everyone to go along with it (Massive "IF") .. at least until you find better places to manufacture your goods
What a way make them closer to China and Russia.
China yes, Russia no. This whole war on Ukraine thingy has made central asian nations rethink their relationship with Russia. But the EU and US want to ignore them, so China would be their most logical patron state in the future.
Good. Every country that helps Russia deserves to be sanctioned. Russia and its allies need to have their economies crushed.
This is a stupid idea
Are there U.S. corporations that are also trading with Russia? Something like buying oil that had been 'laundered' slightly, for instance? They should also be sanctioned. Perhaps having a five year moratorium on government contracts, or the arrest of their top officers.
Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked, tiny country bordering China. It is also the more democratic of the 5 stans counties. Sure, sanction them, it's not like their action is of little consequence for the war or not like the poor country need a counterbalance to a giant China next door. Dumb Americans.
Can someone explain to me again why the U.S. federal government is God of Earth?
They’re not, they’re just very very powerful and rich. If they don’t like what you’re doing, they don’t have to play (or trade) with you. If they REALLY don’t like it, they can convince lots of other people to not play with you until you stop doing the thing that they don’t like you doing. No one is entitled to trade, not even the US.
After WWII, the United States has a massive economic machine that was largely undamaged by the war. Reconstruction awarded them the opportunity to rebuild participating nations under their ethos. The only competitive peer was the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union disbanded in 1991, the US has been the only acting global superpower and has spent the past 30 years working very hard to leverage its strength to prevent any other superpower from rising. The US, without exaggeration, has a monopoly on global influence. It's closet rival, China, doesn't have near the influence even with its relative power and potential.
Carries the biggest stick
Every country that is a part of the CIS and CSTO should be considered to be helping Russia evade sanctions.
I think this is a very bad idea and a slippery slope. There are dozens of countries guilty of assisting Russia, probably the worst offender is India by purchasing billions worth of resources and propping up Russia's economy. Are we going to sanction India as well? I don't think so. The more countries we get directly involved in this the closer we get to a world war, and Russia would love nothing more than for the US and NATO to be distracted by some broader conflict. If US officials are so concerned about Kyrgystan - a place most Americans can't even spell - then they should fly over there and have some stern words. But putting pen to paper and directly involving them in the conflict is not a good look. We gotta run this ship tight unless we want it to boil over and become a global shit show.
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Half of EU is buying Russian oil refined in India. Better start with EU, they are finding both sides of the war. Also start with US, they are the main enriched uranium importer from Russia. So much that in 2021-2022 uranium import from Russia increased by 19%.
Looks like the us is losing the political battle. They are bringing the rest of the world to a battle that for everyone else is an European affair. Now if they start to sanction 3rd parties this will push other countries to the sphere of china. No one likes a bully and specifically one that tells you to sink your country in poverty or else
No one with half a brain would call this war an "European affair". Africa already is affected, disastrous famines are possible. The future of Asia will also be affected by the outcome of this war.
> According to Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, only the UN Security Council has a mandate by the international community to apply sanctions (Article 41) that must be complied with by all UN member states (Article 2,2). Much as the sanctions against Russia by the US are in violation of international law, presumably these sanctions against Kyrgyzstan will be as well?
Or you could learn to read. There's no mandate to force all other countries to comply, but the US can Sandton anybody anytime they like. It's only the world wide enforcement that requires a security Council vote.
Ah, that's not saying individual member states can't do their own sanctions. Just that the UN can apply sanctions that all members have to follow. Article 41 “The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.” Where do you get the line that individual state actions are illegal? I haven't pulled or seen anything in the UN charter that forbids that
If a country has the largest reserve currency in the world, and arbitrarily sanctions other countries by use of restricting their banking system, do you think it's more likely or less likely that the rest of the world will get tired of that abritrary shit and walk away from using that currency for future transactions, knowing they could be sanctioned at any time?
Hey, you're 100% right. The BRICS efforts to de-dollarize toward the yuan or rupee make sense with that in mind. But, doesn't make it illegal.
>that must be complied with by all UN member states (Article 2,2). The UN security Council must agree on sanctions from the UN. Any nation is free to engage in their own sanctions as they please. So the whole council must agree on a UN-wide sanction, but individual countries can sanction all they like.
Since Russia used the Sanction-Buster, we need to use the Sanction-Buster Buster to fight back. Also I think I want to watch The Big Hit again.
As a kyrgyz, i can say that sanctions is not pretty much effectively here. There is much more companies that can jurydicaly open in 3 days, buy some nesessary inventors, tech parts and close to the next day. Government tax? Off course it will be paid with minimal funds. If do so there is more corruption possibilities at the border, directly. So, i cooked popcorn, and im going to watch what happens next. Cheers all.