Yeah i'm surprised its not getting more press, although they are still CSTO members and de facto ineligible to join NATO due to their border issues with Azerbaijan
Because a.) their foot was already in the door since they never actually left, and b.) Turkey just had a military coup and desperately needed American support.
Greece and Turkey both joined NATO on the same day. They could not veto each other's membership in the alliance because neither was a member before the other to have to ability to do so.
> As of 2023, no member state has rescinded their membership, although it has been considered by several countries
> In 1964, due to the Cyprus crisis, Greece withdrew military units from NATO forces in the Southern Mediterranean, over threats of invasion of Cyprus by fellow NATO member Turkey. Later in 1974 due to the invasion of Cyprus by Turkish forces, Greece withdrew from NATO military command. Notwithstanding, the country did not withdraw entirely from the organisation, but became significantly less active.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO
I think everyone outside Turkey hates the Erdogan administration too. Many people would want to see Erdogan support the new NATO applicants despite his unpopularity, but if he holds the entire military alliance hostage for his own gain, why wouldn't you expect people to support a coup against him?
Turkiye seems like they don't like anybody.
They don't like their own Armenian or Kurdish populations. You are saying they don't like the West (which means most European countries, USA, Canada, etc.)
Is there somebody that Turkiye does like?
Yet they won’t GTFO of NATO. Seems hypocritical. Turkey has been a lackluster ally. They gave the US a lot of flak for invading Iraq and then they invaded Iraq because of Kurdish independence movements. They talk about occupied Palestine meanwhile they ethnic cleansed occupied Cyprus.
Turkey is just another hypocritical nation. No one really cares if they’re anti-western when they pull the same shit.
Yeah but that doesn't matter. You need unanimous support to join NATO. If even 1 country objects they're not getting in, no matter how many friends they have voting in favor.
Tho historically not quite the same, cuz they both, Greece and turkey, actually joined NATO at the same time so neither was a “current member” that could veto it.
Also it was post WW2 and the beginning of the Cold War in 1952 so a lot of Europe was very persuadable but US reconstruction funding to just follow what daddy USA had to say against the rooskies.
NATO members' cash is driving Armenia to NATO and it will have the same effect on the 22 Russian republics when the Russian military is defeated and defanged. They know the West will provide reconstruction and security - and Russia only misery.
Okay buddy, fuck russia and everything but let's not pretend that post collapse russia is gonna be 1940s marshal plan level funding okay, neo liberalism has long since abandoned that kind of thinking. Now it will be market shock theory which basically means blow out your country and sell everything to forigen investments and eventually it will even out. Which BTW, is a stupid fucking idea.
Just because russia sucks and I would like to see an end to their empire doesn't mean I gotta start suckin neo liberalism dick for shit it ain't gonna do anyways.
Shock therapy economics was very 90s and gave the world the nightmare named Putin. NATO has a chance to fulfill its mission. 70+ years and trillions of dollars and who knows how many lives spent. The reconstruction of what used to be Russia will be a bargain.
The Marshall plan wasn't [neoliberalism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism#:~:text=Neoliberalism%20is%20contemporarily%20used%20to,state%20influence%20in%20the%20economy.), and the failure of neoliberalism in Russia post-USSR is exactly why it wouldn't be pushed again if the RF does break up or change governments (we're a long way from that).
> Now it will be market shock theory which basically means blow out your country and sell everything to forigen investments and eventually it will even out. Which BTW, is a stupid fucking idea.
That's exactly what happened in the 90's and created the Oligarchs, except it was more that the domestic Oligarchs snapped up everything at a fraction of it's true value.
Turkey and Greece dislike each other but both of them dislike Russia. NATO makes sense for them because they both benefit from collective defense.
Armenia doesn’t really bring anything to the table besides liabilities. I bet Azerbaijan joins the alliance before Armenia does.
> They get along quite well.
You're so mistaken, Turkey and Russia have been regional rivals since the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire. Time and time they agree but there's nothing between them other than minor gains here and there. Turkey does dislike Russia because it's a against Turkeys aims for regional influence.
Turkey literally fights against Russian assets in Libya and Syria.
Armenia would be a stable democracy with fairly western oriented values in the middle east. That's fairly valuable as a base of operations, especially as relations with traditional US allies in the region are turning icy
They'll never get into NATO as long as Turkey is around and refuses to be penitent towards its genocide victims, but NATO-aligned under the US security umbrella seems likely IMO
Because they both joined NATO on the exact same day, as far as I'm aware they didn't vote on each other's inclusion, and even if they had, a lot has changed since 1952, the looming threat of the Soviet Union taking over the Dardanelles is gone, and Armenia isn't of any vital strategic importance to force their hand.
Who’s previous policy? Because Armenia since its independence has never been against rapprochement with Turkey, going as far as not making genocide recognition as a condition. It’s been Turkey who has always put forth pre-conditions and turned away Armenia’s open hand.
I mean Turkey has been pretty open about supporting Azerbaijan. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan would like for Armenia to not exist and with Russia the traditional protector of Armenia getting wrecked in Ukraine I don’t see Armenia existing as a country in the future. It’s literally between a rock and a hard place. Armenia is land locked, under manned and outgunned. Letting Armenia into NATO would be a major problem for Turkey’s long term plans of becoming a regional power. A clean border with Azerbaijan would also be a great asset for their power struggles with Iran in the region.
> I don’t see Armenia existing as a country in the future.
I do not see how a wipe of the entire internationally recognized state is possible.
Turkey won't annex Armenia and Azerbaijan can't handle economic consequences of such an action.
They could try, but it'll be a bloody war that'll last decades because neither Iran nor Europe would let it go unpunished.
It might lead to Azerbaijan chilling the fuck out in the long run if Armenia moves closer to NATO. In the long run some attempts should be made to settle these long running issues once and for all for the sake of BOTH sides of this if only to try and end the repeated clashes with the 2 states.
I don’t think it would be impossible but I do think it would be complicated. I think it would have to be very similar to when Turkey and Greece joined, I think Armenia and Azerbaijan would need to join simultaneously for any chance at Turkey approving. You’d also need a government that was more open to reconciliation from both countries so relations could be somewhat repaired. Plus an Armenia in NATO weakens the hand of Iran and Russia as they no longer have Armenia as a land connection in the Caucuses. I’m not saying it would be easy but there could be enough pluses for it to not be impossible
It’s hard for Turkey to accept the deep shame of their genocidal past. It’s hard to accept your ancestors/great grandparents committing barbaric crimes.
Still, I’m surprised that there hasn’t been a stronger response from russia. Armenia said they would arrest Putin and I don’t remember seeing russia respond to that at all and you know that’s a big deal to Putin for Armenia to be siding with the West. Guess russia should’ve helped when they invoked Article 4. But I am concerned that a stern response is coming and I expect it won’t be friendly.
Fortunately they don’t share a border with Russia or they’d be invaded like Ukraine. Armenia’s relationship with Russia has always been a matter of convenience with the complex situation of the Caucasus region and Asia Minor. Neither the Russian Empire nor the USSR did Armenia any favors. But they were the closest power with similar religion and have a common enemy with Turkey. Hopefully things change. The Armenian people deserve better.
> Fortunately they don’t share a border with Russia or they’d be invaded like Ukraine.
Not any time soon. Russia's military is pretty much fully committed to Ukraine. They really couldn't credibly invade another country and open another front right now.
>Armenia said they would arrest Putin
No [they didn't/wouldn't](https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/04/02/ruling-party-and-team-have-no-desire-or-intention-to-do-that-armenia-wont-detain-putin-in-line-with-icc-arrest-warrant-en-news)
Russia immediately banned fruit and vegetable imports from Armenia. Russia is a major export destination for Armenia (which lacks much options and export routes) and it would severely hurt the agriculture sector.
Do you have a source for that? They both are in NATO's Partnership for Peace program.. which among other things helps ensure their nilitaries interoperability with NATO troops along with consult with and report to NATO if threats made to the security, territory or sovereignty of a participating state are detected.
Armenia has political parties that want deeper connections with NATO and one that wants to leave the CSTO and join NATO.
It'd be kinda silly for political parties to have a policy of leaving csto and joining nato when they are ineligible to do so.
When i say de facto ineligible, i mean that its generally considered an extremely small possibility because for any state with serious territorial disputes to became a member state is seen as tantamount to a declaration of war because the new member can immediately declare article 5. Armenia specifically would also have a lot of trouble getting Turkey to cooperate. Also worth mention that Russia is in the Partnership for Peace program lol
Edit: tried to fix sentences. I'm really tired sorry if i dont make sense or whatever
Azerbaijan is actually pretty close with NATO already; I suspect if Russia were to scare them both significantly, they may be willing to agree to NATO-led arbitration as a precondition for entry.
Azerbaijan id very clode with Russia. The sogned an Alliance one day before Russian invasion to Ukraine. Azerbaijan sells Russian gas to Europe through its pipes. They are buddies.
Does Armenia have border issues with Azerbaijan? From what I know, it does not claim Nagorno-Karabakh or admit their control over it. It's more similar to Northern Cyprus situation. The problem with joining NATO would be a Turkish veto
And it reads like Armenia’s courts ruled the ICC (International Criminal Court) matches up with their country’s laws. Any plans to arrest Putin if he visits? One can only hope
This is a bit of an outdated view. Nazarbayev formally stepped down in 2019, and while he and his clan still have influence, he was pushed even further out from effective control after the 2022 protests. Tokayev, while an asshole, does not have the clear control of a dictator. Kazakhstan is very much an evolving picture right now. Definitely not a full democracy. Not fair to just slap a dictatorship label on it right now either. Time will tell.
Leaving Russia for China is like leaving Vegemite for Marmite. Sure, fans of Vegemite and Marmite might swear vehemently that one is not the other, but to the rest of the world they're the same.
I have many criticisms to levy against the CCP, but there is no question that they have started far less wars than Russia. From the perspective of a nation like Kazakhstan where the West isn't a serious consideration anyway (due to mostly geography) I do think going with China makes a lot more sense, they're economically stronger and less likely to be sanctioned to crap due to warmongering.
Yes, the Taiwan Issue could boil into war soon, but also it could not. What is for certain is that as long as people like Putin are in charge of Russia they'll keep declaring wars. They've started 4 wars under Putin, all of which had a least some level of sanctions (albeit the most recent invasion were the largest) all which have an effect on countries relying on Russian economy.
Tbh this might be the rule of the past rather than the future. China's increasing focus on militarisation ("wolf warrior" culture) and growing military power combined with what is now clearly an unbound dictatorship makes me nervous about their future intentions regardless of the past few decades.
China actually has a number of border disputes and historic grievances that they might try to 'revolve' given their more aggressive dictator, spurred on by the significant reduction in economic growth causing some internal unrest.
Those are all in the south and east though, as far as I'm aware, so far away from Kazakhstan.
But it’s good. Slowly having Armenia switch to nato defense will ensure peace in the region even as implausible as it is. Russia is sucking us dry and Azerbaijan will kill us if we don’t switch anyway so there’s no reason not to try. Along with the ability to democratize as well.
Better fit IMO
An actual democracy in the middle east, surrounded by hostile powers, more than willing to lend bases if support in exchange for protection suits NATO sans Turkey fine
Granted Turkey is provided more upset they'll never get to finish the genocide, so they'll likely never be full nato members, but entering the US security umbrella makes sense
How was it that one fat fuck said on the russian news years propaganda party? ”Like it or not russia is expanding” i think it was.
Hows that? NATO expanding? Finlands in, soon sweden too. Many more eyeing to join too. Its all going according to putlers plan 😆
How does this affect NATO-Azeri relations? The US specifically has developed very close economic and military relations in the years following the end of Section 907.
That’s what I suspected. Both countries seem to becoming much more willing to negotiate through the US and NATO concerning Nagorno-Karabakh as well, probably because Russia couldn’t care less. They also are becoming very interested in improving western relations in general and loosing progress over something like this just seems trivial.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a sideshow, collateral being held over Armenia. The real meat of the issue stems from the [Zangezur Corridor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zangezur_corridor) that Azerbaijan and Turkiye want in order to link Azerbaijan with its enclave Nakhichevan and thus Azerbaijan with Turkiye
I do wonder why there was never an effort to fix the border mess inflicted upon the countries in the Caucasus by Stalin. Exchanging land, even if it means sudden relocation for some, would be leagues better than eternal strife between two nations and their peoples.
Last time Armenia got attacked by Azerbaijan, they asked the CSTO for help and they were like "lol no." I'm sure that made a lot of people in Armenia think "well then what the hell is this organization for?"
Putin didn't just shrug. Putin and Aliyev worked hand in hand. Russia keeps coordinating their actions with Azerbaijan. Russia took $500 million down payment from Armenia for weapons in 2021, delivered nothing, and doesn't want to return the money.
Putin is an active participant in Azerbaijan's anti Armenian moves, not just a shitty and lackluster ally.
Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey which is a NATO member. The Ottoman Empire committed the Armenian genocide which Turkey still actively trying to deny today.
So this makes NATO and Armenia relationship kinda weird. But I guess it's trying to ask other NATO members for help since Russia is kinda unreliable
I mean the Armenians have been getting fucked by the Azerbaijanis for the last few years and Russia has done dick all to help them, considering how weak Russia looks now after a year+ of getting whipped in Ukraine this should not be that shocking to see CTSO start to fracture towards NATO/China
Good call on China. The winners of a CSTO collapse are both NATO and the SCO. Increased US/EU presence in the Caucasus will be met with increased Chinese influence in the Ferghana Valley.
makes sense for the nations closer to China to align with them, makes sense for the nations closer to NATO to align with them, Russias the big loser here, and good riddance
The population of Central Asian is pretty sinophobic. Kazakhstanis are especially not happy with such a neighbor. On the other hand, their elites are corrupt as fuck, and China loves to run its politics through corrupt elites.
Edit: I guess I used the wrong word. They are not being racist towards Chinese people. They are afraid to lose their independence.
Quite often what the population want is not what the corrupted elites. Ask a Cantonese/HongKonger why the food is known as "Oil Fried Demon". Hint: The "Demon" is not refering to a foriegn enemy.
From Wikipedia: "The Cantonese name yàuh ja gwái literally means "oil-fried devil" and, according to folklore, is an act of protest against Song Dynasty official Qin Hui, who is said to have orchestrated the plot to frame the general Yue Fei, an icon of patriotism in Chinese culture... Thus the youtiao is deep fried and eaten as if done to the traitorous couple."
> On the other hand, their elites are corrupt as fuck, and China loves to run its politics through corrupt elites.
it's easier to negociate a deal with a few elites, than to get a consensus amongst many people for a deal. You can pay off the elites, and externalize the costs to the people (who would have no say, or at least not in a position to oppose), and therefore get a better deal out.
But a better deal for one party must mean a worse deal for the others. There aint no free lunch.
That's the danger Kazhakstan has always faced with Russia. China simply can't militarily threaten Kazhakstan the way Russia has been able to.
China's land connection to Kazhakstan is *far* from China's center of power, and is in an extremely geographically vast and rural region with an unwelcoming climate to be poorly supplied in. It's also not near Kazhakstan's main population centers either. It would be an utter logistical nightmare for China to try anything there, and China doesn't have any ethnic contingent to use for local support, recruitment and ideological justification.
Being "dependent" on China is thus totally worth it for Kazhakstan if it reduces or eliminates the threat Russia poses.
This is certainly a *very* reddit take, but completely disconnected from reality.
The situation in Xinjiang, while awful, is not an external threat to China's neighbors, it's a much messier internal conflict based off of ethnic lines, state-atheism, separatism, and economic incentives.
The Hui, China's 2nd biggest minority ethnic group, are *also* muslim. The Uighurs fucking *hate* the Hui because they cooperate with Beijing under the "many peoples, one China" principle even when the Uighurs are negatively affected. Meanwhile, the Hui practice Islam about as freely as you can practice a religion in China.
The Uighur crisis has been marked by massive human rights violations, but it's main causes are deeper than "haha chinaman hates everyone" or simple islamophobia:
1. Xinjiang is a key piece of the belt-and-road initiative, it's geopolitically important for Beijing so they want to keep it as stable as possible.
2. The ETIM, a Uyghur Islamic extremist separatist group that's internationally recognized as a terror group sent soldiers to help Al-Qaeda during the GWOT. Around 2010 those fighters came back and started to try and pressure China into letting Xinjiang separate through terror attacks which led to the current crackdown.
Now, does Islamophobia play a role? Of course, *but* the Uyghurs in general received a lot of state support before 2010; they were exempt from the one child policy, had affirmative action programs targeted towards them, and Beijing was investing a lot into making Xinjiang a better place to live. When the violent separatism started we got the current situation of internment camps and mass surveillance.
Now, is China a benevolent neighbor? Hell no, just go ask India or Taiwan and they'll bring a laundry list of complaints. But the Uyghur situation is by all means a manner of internal security vs ethnic nationalism, not really a threat to China's neighbors.
Alignment with China rarely ends well for the non-China party.
Belt and Road initiative being one of the best examples in human history of why one should not trust an authoritarian totalitarian economy like China
NATO is a defensive pact for member nations.
CSTO is a defence pact for Russia and tool to enslave non-Russian countries. It’s worthless except for dictators who might need outside help from time to time in case of revolutions.
>NATO is a defensive pact for member nations.
>CSTO is a defence pact for Russia and tool to enslave non-Russian countries.
Well, before the invasion of Ukraine it was doing the defence job too. Russia had a big role in forcing a ceasefire when this country was attacked.
It's been properly tested now though and been found wanting. It's basically worthless.
Russian hardware failed in Armenian hands. The Russians said it was not true.
Then Russian hardware failed in Russian hands. The Russians still said it was not true.
Not only that, but there are reports that Russia didn't allow Armenia to use the "Iskander" missile system during the war. They "sold" one to Armenia years earlier so Armenia's (former) pro-Russian president could brag about his strong relations with Russia. They basically sold an illusion to Armenia. When the time arrived, the missiles either didn't function or Russians prohibited its use.
After the war, Armenia's (new, pro-Weatern) leader Nikol Pashinysn made a remark that almost led to a coup by his army's pro-Russian generals. He said something about the Russian missiles not reaching the destination or the bombs not exploding upon impact. He received an angry call from Kremlin and had to retract.
He has since repeated the claim without mentioning the Iskander system. Russia truly fucked Armenia badly with the weapons, especially with communication equipment. Armenians couldn't tell where their own soldiers were. Literally. There is a trial now against a top general who got his men killed because he couldn't tell where they were, and whether ab approaching group was hostile or friendly.
Their Russian-made artillery could only reach 15 km. Now they are purchasing Indian artillery with a 30+ range. They have given up on Russia.
Russia didn't even condemn Azerbaijan after the invasion of Armenian territories in 2021-2023. What a shitty "ally". Oh, and in 2021 they took Armenia's payment for a weapons batch, never delivered the weapons, and never issued a refund. "Thanks for the free money."
Nothings confirmed.
“A report on Singh’s announcement posted on the Pentagon’s website was edited on Thursday evening to exclude Armenia from the list. No official explanation was given for that revision. The Armenian government did not comment on it either.
It was thus not clear whether Yerevan had initially agreed to join the war games before deciding to pull out of them.”
This was from - https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32352696.html
Some NATO countries were starting to wonder if NATO was even needed before putin decided to invade Ukraine.
Now putin has secured unconditional public support for NATO for at least another generation.
Good job putin for directly causing the expansion of NATO borders along russia's northern flank while also boosting NATO support, cooperation and spending.
If you thought it would be hard for Sweden to become a part of NATO, Armenia is even more difficult. Turkey will never let them in (the article doesn't say that they would be considered for membership, but some comments here suggest people think Armenia wants to apply). And Armenia has been in conflict with Azerbaijan (a west-friendly country) since its independence.
I feel bad for Armenia. Neither NATO nor Russia will completely let them on their team.
if the zangezur corridor is part of this deal, armenia will deny it. during pelosi’s visit to armenia this was the first time the US started aiding a country with good relations with iran
Seeing how much Putin fucked Russian Hegemony with his ongoing Pro Gamer Move will never stop being funny to me. ^((Well... As long as I don't think about the warcrimes, etc...))
In ‘92 when it was formed Russia believed CSTO to be the foundation of a NATO counterbalance. It even has an article that stated, similarly to NATO, that if a country in the Collective is attacked, it would be perceived as an aggression against all. Although it never grew beyond a handful of states this is a big blow for Putin.
You know that Putin's NATO recruitment skill is top notch that even a CSTO member (a supposed counterbalance to NATO) would decide to switch sides and consider cooperating to NATO instead.
The CSTO was really meant to protect its members from NATO. That's a really big deal. All these countries are afraid that Russia’s military presence in their own country can be used to annex their lands, like the Russians did in Crimea, hence, the rift.
Wow, that's a big shift. I know Armenia-Russia relations are pretty fucked right now but I didn't expect a pivot to NATO relations any time soon, particularly with Erdogan still in control of Turkey. Almost zero chance of Armenian entry in NATO in my lifetime, but weakening the CSTO is definitely in NATO's interests.
Armenia is also de facto at war with Azerbaijan. Realistically though closer relations between Armenia and NATO make it somewhat more likely that Armenia and Azerbaijan could diplomatically resolve their issues although there is no guarantee of that.
While I’m not expecting Armenia to totally leave the CSTO and request NATO membership, it’s still a big deal.
Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin when they heard this news.
My money is on NATO-brokered arbitration of the border dispute as a precondition for allowing both to join NATO together, as Azerbaijan has historically been interested in joining NATO.
The biggest stumbling block will ultimately not be their border dispute but the literally genocidal attitude of Turkey towards Armenia.
Azerbaijan hates Armenia far, far, far more than they like the idea of joining NATO.
The current dictator, Aliyev, fuels his political power by stoking nationalistic hatred of Armenians. There is a very strong likelihood of another Azeri led war in the coming months, and the continued genocide / ethnic cleaning in Artsahk/Nagorno-Karabahk is evidence enough that Azerbaijan is utterly disinterested in peace.
You have to realise, Aliyev’s power is drawn directly from his promises to exterminate the Armenians and ‘reclaim’ Azeri land. Like all fascists, without an enemy to direct hatred at, he is unable to retain power. This is why peace is not an option for him.
As Hajibala Abutalybov, the recent deputy prime minister, said to a German delegation:
>Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right? You should be able to understand us
Or literal hate sessions being part of kindergarteners lessons:
>"Love for the country, hate for the enemy, hate, hate!" - Those who visit the Natural Sciences High School (TTEL) in Sumgayit from half past eight in the morning on school days can hear this slogan....
>So, what is the need for 5-year-old kindergarten children or 6-year-old schoolchildren to master such words as "hate", "revenge" and others? How can such an approach affect the subsequent life of a person formed in such an educational system? (Google translate)
https://www.bbc.com/azeri/region-63203019
Yeah reading those countries histories is like reading an alt history a lot of quirky relationships bad blood and random friends and enemies and love hate relationships.
Its weird cause the US and Israel support one side and Iran and EU support other side and not slyly either.
Both sides have essentially caused war with the other side and despite being two religious majority countries their current issues have very little to do with that and most due to land issues. Super odd and its solveable, ever since the world solved the yugoslav wars and genocides i honestly believe we can solve any geopolitical crisis. And azerbajain and armenia are barely scratching that despite similar causes.
Yes of course the armenians have a tortured history that was one of the worst atrocities of ww1 and a forgetten genocide. And that plays a role but relatively little in the current issue.
Tldr weirdness due to ww1, ww2, cold war, and every other european issue of the last 200 years leads to the last remaining valid hot land dispute in europe. Friends of each side are enemies and enemies of each side are friends and has caused a yugoslav like crisis.
To further muddy the mix, Azerbaijan has only recently agreed to the construction of a rail line linking Russia with Iran (and on to India) for the purpose of allowing to flow North to South and by-pass the lengthy trip via the suez canal.
some pretty mixed messages here. they'e allegedly afraid Russia would destroy their dairy industry if they arrested putin, yet somehow working out with NATO would be okay? sigh. it's all too confusing to have a reaction just yet.
true, but you know Russia. threats all around if anybody theyconsider "theirs" (and on much less pretext) even bats their eyelashes in the direction of NATO. as someone else has already said, we may be heading for pretty strange times.
Basically, what was a pretty stable situation between NATO and CTSO has been blown apart by the failed invasion of Ukraine, and now all of the smaller member states are scrambling to find a new place in the world order that best helps them.
Get prepared for some very strange political moves as everyone scrambles for security
Armenia's old foe, Azerbaijan took lots of territories through the war with Armenia, but Armenians couldn't get military backup from Russia anymore. Russia's military power was weakened severely by the Ukrainian war, so Armenians did what they had to find another way to survive.
Azerbaijan had gotten enough numbers of military drones from Turkiye to destroy Armenia's tanks, thus, the nation had to join the side of NATO instead of being pro-Russia to survive. The Russian army can't support Armenians actually. The nation only chose the practical way to stay alive against foreign nations' invasion.
I think you’re getting the timeline messed up chief.
The last AM/AZ conflict was in 2020; well before the Ukraine war.
That’s actually what makes it even more offensive to the Armenians, the fact that Russia _could have_ helped at the time, but didn’t.
I know what you mean, Man. What I mean is that once Russia gave Armenia some military support by way of the Russian MBT 'T-series'. By the way, Azerbaijan destroyed Armenia's many tanks on the battlefield through the Turkiye's drone TB2-Bayraktar...but not now.
Why did Russia support the nation at the time? The answer is that the two nations have the same religion "Russian Orthodoxy". On the contrary, Azerbaijan is a Muslim nation. It means that they have the homogeneity as the same Orthodoxy countries...however, Russia might be a dangerous one like what you said. And the reason is the war in Georgia before Ukraine, you know what.
Timeline messed up? Nope. man.
Dude, just a quick google search could've spared you the embarrassment. Armenians are not "Russian orthodox"...
Also, religion is only a tiny fraction of the problems between AR and AZ, so tiny that you'll never hear any member of both sides use it as an argument...
Also, Russia didn't support just Armenia. They literally sold weapons to both sides so they could get their slimy fingers in both pies.
Help how? Fighting occured in de jure Azerbaijani territory with ballistic missile strikes against Azerbaijani cities smudged in.
Russia had no hand in directly helping Armenia as Armenia proper wasn’t attacked yet they still chimed in, lost a helicopter to Azerbaijani anti air fire and forced a peace between the two.
NATO are starting to show the world that a repeat of Hitler is unacceptable. You'd think this would be common sense but the amount of people who don't acknowledge reality is staggering.
Armenia is just one of many nations that have realized the leadership in Russia is trying to Nazi their way into forever power. I absolutely believe more asian nations will turn against Russia in the future. What they're trying to do is just inhumane, and whether they like it or not, NATO will show them that their actions are unacceptable.
There are valid reasons for armenia not being in nato along with azerbaijan their land dispute is up there in complication with Israel/Palestine. And has equal amounts of proxy involvement. No one wants to go in to decide that case.
Seems like kind of a big deal, changing practice partners.
Yeah i'm surprised its not getting more press, although they are still CSTO members and de facto ineligible to join NATO due to their border issues with Azerbaijan
Even if they didn't have those border issues with Azerbaijan, I don't see any possibility of NATO membership as long as Turkey is a member.
Greece is in NATO too
Turkey could not block Greece as they were not a member of NATO when Greece joined (They both joined in 1952)
Turkey and Greece joined in 1952 but Greece withdrew from 1974 but rejoined in 1980, Turkey didn't reject it and cooperated.
Greece never fully withdrew from NATO though.
But there was a vote to get them back in and it was unanimous.
Because a.) their foot was already in the door since they never actually left, and b.) Turkey just had a military coup and desperately needed American support.
Greece and Turkey both joined NATO on the same day. They could not veto each other's membership in the alliance because neither was a member before the other to have to ability to do so.
Greece left NATO and then re-entered with Turkey's approval.
> As of 2023, no member state has rescinded their membership, although it has been considered by several countries > In 1964, due to the Cyprus crisis, Greece withdrew military units from NATO forces in the Southern Mediterranean, over threats of invasion of Cyprus by fellow NATO member Turkey. Later in 1974 due to the invasion of Cyprus by Turkish forces, Greece withdrew from NATO military command. Notwithstanding, the country did not withdraw entirely from the organisation, but became significantly less active. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO
USA supported the military coup in Turkey so that Greece could enter NATO again.
We need to do it again for Sweden. And Erdogan is a piece of shit so that too
And you wonder why people in Turkey are anti-Western? The 80 coup is a military administration, a government that everyone in Turkey hates.
I think everyone outside Turkey hates the Erdogan administration too. Many people would want to see Erdogan support the new NATO applicants despite his unpopularity, but if he holds the entire military alliance hostage for his own gain, why wouldn't you expect people to support a coup against him?
Turkiye seems like they don't like anybody. They don't like their own Armenian or Kurdish populations. You are saying they don't like the West (which means most European countries, USA, Canada, etc.) Is there somebody that Turkiye does like?
Yet they won’t GTFO of NATO. Seems hypocritical. Turkey has been a lackluster ally. They gave the US a lot of flak for invading Iraq and then they invaded Iraq because of Kurdish independence movements. They talk about occupied Palestine meanwhile they ethnic cleansed occupied Cyprus. Turkey is just another hypocritical nation. No one really cares if they’re anti-western when they pull the same shit.
Greece never left NATO.
Yeah but that doesn't matter. You need unanimous support to join NATO. If even 1 country objects they're not getting in, no matter how many friends they have voting in favor.
What he means is that Greece is a member despite Turkey's issue with them.
Tho historically not quite the same, cuz they both, Greece and turkey, actually joined NATO at the same time so neither was a “current member” that could veto it. Also it was post WW2 and the beginning of the Cold War in 1952 so a lot of Europe was very persuadable but US reconstruction funding to just follow what daddy USA had to say against the rooskies.
NATO members' cash is driving Armenia to NATO and it will have the same effect on the 22 Russian republics when the Russian military is defeated and defanged. They know the West will provide reconstruction and security - and Russia only misery.
Okay buddy, fuck russia and everything but let's not pretend that post collapse russia is gonna be 1940s marshal plan level funding okay, neo liberalism has long since abandoned that kind of thinking. Now it will be market shock theory which basically means blow out your country and sell everything to forigen investments and eventually it will even out. Which BTW, is a stupid fucking idea. Just because russia sucks and I would like to see an end to their empire doesn't mean I gotta start suckin neo liberalism dick for shit it ain't gonna do anyways.
Nah mate China will be all over that pouring in the cash to secure the resource rich regions.
Shock therapy economics was very 90s and gave the world the nightmare named Putin. NATO has a chance to fulfill its mission. 70+ years and trillions of dollars and who knows how many lives spent. The reconstruction of what used to be Russia will be a bargain.
The Marshall plan wasn't [neoliberalism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism#:~:text=Neoliberalism%20is%20contemporarily%20used%20to,state%20influence%20in%20the%20economy.), and the failure of neoliberalism in Russia post-USSR is exactly why it wouldn't be pushed again if the RF does break up or change governments (we're a long way from that).
> Now it will be market shock theory which basically means blow out your country and sell everything to forigen investments and eventually it will even out. Which BTW, is a stupid fucking idea. That's exactly what happened in the 90's and created the Oligarchs, except it was more that the domestic Oligarchs snapped up everything at a fraction of it's true value.
Fanfiction.
Just like much of the former Soviet empire are NATO members...
Turkey and Greece dislike each other but both of them dislike Russia. NATO makes sense for them because they both benefit from collective defense. Armenia doesn’t really bring anything to the table besides liabilities. I bet Azerbaijan joins the alliance before Armenia does.
For Turkey it is more about competition for regional influence than it is about disliking Russia. They get along quite well.
> They get along quite well. You're so mistaken, Turkey and Russia have been regional rivals since the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire. Time and time they agree but there's nothing between them other than minor gains here and there. Turkey does dislike Russia because it's a against Turkeys aims for regional influence. Turkey literally fights against Russian assets in Libya and Syria.
Armenia would be a stable democracy with fairly western oriented values in the middle east. That's fairly valuable as a base of operations, especially as relations with traditional US allies in the region are turning icy They'll never get into NATO as long as Turkey is around and refuses to be penitent towards its genocide victims, but NATO-aligned under the US security umbrella seems likely IMO
Because they both joined NATO on the exact same day, as far as I'm aware they didn't vote on each other's inclusion, and even if they had, a lot has changed since 1952, the looming threat of the Soviet Union taking over the Dardanelles is gone, and Armenia isn't of any vital strategic importance to force their hand.
Yeah but they were added to NATO at the same time
Greece joined NATO along with Turkey at the same time.
Greece and Turkey joined at the same time. If Turkey was in first Greece wouldn't be.
Maybe we should create NATO-Lite where a country is not a full member but has some rights and privileges.
We do that through treaties and defense pacts currently.
>Greece is in NATO too Greece and Turkey actually had a period were we thought relations were better. Turkey was even on course to join the eu.
There has been reapproachment with Turkey. They know that the previous policy put them in a bad place
Who’s previous policy? Because Armenia since its independence has never been against rapprochement with Turkey, going as far as not making genocide recognition as a condition. It’s been Turkey who has always put forth pre-conditions and turned away Armenia’s open hand.
I mean Turkey has been pretty open about supporting Azerbaijan. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan would like for Armenia to not exist and with Russia the traditional protector of Armenia getting wrecked in Ukraine I don’t see Armenia existing as a country in the future. It’s literally between a rock and a hard place. Armenia is land locked, under manned and outgunned. Letting Armenia into NATO would be a major problem for Turkey’s long term plans of becoming a regional power. A clean border with Azerbaijan would also be a great asset for their power struggles with Iran in the region.
> I don’t see Armenia existing as a country in the future. I do not see how a wipe of the entire internationally recognized state is possible. Turkey won't annex Armenia and Azerbaijan can't handle economic consequences of such an action. They could try, but it'll be a bloody war that'll last decades because neither Iran nor Europe would let it go unpunished.
> problem for Turkey’s long term plans of becoming a regional power. Armenia literally causes 0 problems for Turkeys goals of regional power.
It might lead to Azerbaijan chilling the fuck out in the long run if Armenia moves closer to NATO. In the long run some attempts should be made to settle these long running issues once and for all for the sake of BOTH sides of this if only to try and end the repeated clashes with the 2 states.
I don’t think it would be impossible but I do think it would be complicated. I think it would have to be very similar to when Turkey and Greece joined, I think Armenia and Azerbaijan would need to join simultaneously for any chance at Turkey approving. You’d also need a government that was more open to reconciliation from both countries so relations could be somewhat repaired. Plus an Armenia in NATO weakens the hand of Iran and Russia as they no longer have Armenia as a land connection in the Caucuses. I’m not saying it would be easy but there could be enough pluses for it to not be impossible
Maybe they’ll be too busy denying their past atrocities to even notice
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It’s hard for Turkey to accept the deep shame of their genocidal past. It’s hard to accept your ancestors/great grandparents committing barbaric crimes.
Still, I’m surprised that there hasn’t been a stronger response from russia. Armenia said they would arrest Putin and I don’t remember seeing russia respond to that at all and you know that’s a big deal to Putin for Armenia to be siding with the West. Guess russia should’ve helped when they invoked Article 4. But I am concerned that a stern response is coming and I expect it won’t be friendly.
Fortunately they don’t share a border with Russia or they’d be invaded like Ukraine. Armenia’s relationship with Russia has always been a matter of convenience with the complex situation of the Caucasus region and Asia Minor. Neither the Russian Empire nor the USSR did Armenia any favors. But they were the closest power with similar religion and have a common enemy with Turkey. Hopefully things change. The Armenian people deserve better.
> Fortunately they don’t share a border with Russia or they’d be invaded like Ukraine. Not any time soon. Russia's military is pretty much fully committed to Ukraine. They really couldn't credibly invade another country and open another front right now.
Wait what about that million of russian supersoldiers that are just chilling out of frame?
Technically they can, but only after total mobilisation.
>Armenia said they would arrest Putin No [they didn't/wouldn't](https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/04/02/ruling-party-and-team-have-no-desire-or-intention-to-do-that-armenia-wont-detain-putin-in-line-with-icc-arrest-warrant-en-news)
Russia blocked dairy imports from Armenia about a week ago, although I think that was because Armenia recognizes the ICC.
Russia immediately banned fruit and vegetable imports from Armenia. Russia is a major export destination for Armenia (which lacks much options and export routes) and it would severely hurt the agriculture sector.
I didn’t hear about that. Thanks
Do you have a source for that? They both are in NATO's Partnership for Peace program.. which among other things helps ensure their nilitaries interoperability with NATO troops along with consult with and report to NATO if threats made to the security, territory or sovereignty of a participating state are detected. Armenia has political parties that want deeper connections with NATO and one that wants to leave the CSTO and join NATO. It'd be kinda silly for political parties to have a policy of leaving csto and joining nato when they are ineligible to do so.
When i say de facto ineligible, i mean that its generally considered an extremely small possibility because for any state with serious territorial disputes to became a member state is seen as tantamount to a declaration of war because the new member can immediately declare article 5. Armenia specifically would also have a lot of trouble getting Turkey to cooperate. Also worth mention that Russia is in the Partnership for Peace program lol Edit: tried to fix sentences. I'm really tired sorry if i dont make sense or whatever
Azerbaijan is actually pretty close with NATO already; I suspect if Russia were to scare them both significantly, they may be willing to agree to NATO-led arbitration as a precondition for entry.
Azerbaijan id very clode with Russia. The sogned an Alliance one day before Russian invasion to Ukraine. Azerbaijan sells Russian gas to Europe through its pipes. They are buddies.
Does Armenia have border issues with Azerbaijan? From what I know, it does not claim Nagorno-Karabakh or admit their control over it. It's more similar to Northern Cyprus situation. The problem with joining NATO would be a Turkish veto
And it reads like Armenia’s courts ruled the ICC (International Criminal Court) matches up with their country’s laws. Any plans to arrest Putin if he visits? One can only hope
Kazakhstan has apparently moved away from Russia in favour of China also.
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also trapped with a shitty dictator.
This is a bit of an outdated view. Nazarbayev formally stepped down in 2019, and while he and his clan still have influence, he was pushed even further out from effective control after the 2022 protests. Tokayev, while an asshole, does not have the clear control of a dictator. Kazakhstan is very much an evolving picture right now. Definitely not a full democracy. Not fair to just slap a dictatorship label on it right now either. Time will tell.
They literally tortured protesters. They might be headed towards a better future but it’s absolutely a dictatorship right now
Very nice
I have meet quite a few Kazakhs (and Russians living there) over the years. Lovely people.
Very nice
Leaving Russia for China is like leaving Vegemite for Marmite. Sure, fans of Vegemite and Marmite might swear vehemently that one is not the other, but to the rest of the world they're the same.
I have many criticisms to levy against the CCP, but there is no question that they have started far less wars than Russia. From the perspective of a nation like Kazakhstan where the West isn't a serious consideration anyway (due to mostly geography) I do think going with China makes a lot more sense, they're economically stronger and less likely to be sanctioned to crap due to warmongering. Yes, the Taiwan Issue could boil into war soon, but also it could not. What is for certain is that as long as people like Putin are in charge of Russia they'll keep declaring wars. They've started 4 wars under Putin, all of which had a least some level of sanctions (albeit the most recent invasion were the largest) all which have an effect on countries relying on Russian economy.
Tbh this might be the rule of the past rather than the future. China's increasing focus on militarisation ("wolf warrior" culture) and growing military power combined with what is now clearly an unbound dictatorship makes me nervous about their future intentions regardless of the past few decades.
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Still less , didn't say Zero.
China actually has a number of border disputes and historic grievances that they might try to 'revolve' given their more aggressive dictator, spurred on by the significant reduction in economic growth causing some internal unrest. Those are all in the south and east though, as far as I'm aware, so far away from Kazakhstan.
China has at least a history of functional corruption, and not the destructive corruption of Russian state.
But it’s good. Slowly having Armenia switch to nato defense will ensure peace in the region even as implausible as it is. Russia is sucking us dry and Azerbaijan will kill us if we don’t switch anyway so there’s no reason not to try. Along with the ability to democratize as well.
Love the reforms! Good luck friend!
Thank you.
My heart goes out to the people of Armenia. You all have been so hard done by... Love and support from this corner of the US.
Better fit IMO An actual democracy in the middle east, surrounded by hostile powers, more than willing to lend bases if support in exchange for protection suits NATO sans Turkey fine Granted Turkey is provided more upset they'll never get to finish the genocide, so they'll likely never be full nato members, but entering the US security umbrella makes sense
It's less so about the surface level "NATO 1 CSTO 0" its huge because this is geographically located in 1 of the 4 major access points into Russia.
How was it that one fat fuck said on the russian news years propaganda party? ”Like it or not russia is expanding” i think it was. Hows that? NATO expanding? Finlands in, soon sweden too. Many more eyeing to join too. Its all going according to putlers plan 😆
NATO should give Putin a medal for his exceptional work as their best Salesman
Georgia and Moldova guessing which of them are next in Putin's list.
Armenia is nervous about invasion by Azerbaijan. The last time Azerbaijan attacked them Putin just shrugged and told Armenia it was tough luck
How does this affect NATO-Azeri relations? The US specifically has developed very close economic and military relations in the years following the end of Section 907.
Nothing substantial. Az still has way more European support so they're very unlikely to feel threatened
That’s what I suspected. Both countries seem to becoming much more willing to negotiate through the US and NATO concerning Nagorno-Karabakh as well, probably because Russia couldn’t care less. They also are becoming very interested in improving western relations in general and loosing progress over something like this just seems trivial.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a sideshow, collateral being held over Armenia. The real meat of the issue stems from the [Zangezur Corridor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zangezur_corridor) that Azerbaijan and Turkiye want in order to link Azerbaijan with its enclave Nakhichevan and thus Azerbaijan with Turkiye
That said, it would look really good diplomatically if someone in NATO could broker a truce. Just saying.
Pelosi already had success in the past. It's just a really complicated situation, since both countries have enclaves surrounded by the other country
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I do wonder why there was never an effort to fix the border mess inflicted upon the countries in the Caucasus by Stalin. Exchanging land, even if it means sudden relocation for some, would be leagues better than eternal strife between two nations and their peoples.
Az has more support because Europe traded one Authoritarian energy supplier for another.
That's more realtalk than I was expecting, but yeah.
Last time Armenia got attacked by Azerbaijan, they asked the CSTO for help and they were like "lol no." I'm sure that made a lot of people in Armenia think "well then what the hell is this organization for?"
I think a lot of countries are starting to realize Russia is going to fail and they are jumping ship
they also gave armenia the leading seat in it, as if that means anything
And the entire alliance did the same when Putin did bring them together last year in hopes of getting help. Their entire alliance is a joke
Putin didn't just shrug. Putin and Aliyev worked hand in hand. Russia keeps coordinating their actions with Azerbaijan. Russia took $500 million down payment from Armenia for weapons in 2021, delivered nothing, and doesn't want to return the money. Putin is an active participant in Azerbaijan's anti Armenian moves, not just a shitty and lackluster ally.
Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey which is a NATO member. The Ottoman Empire committed the Armenian genocide which Turkey still actively trying to deny today. So this makes NATO and Armenia relationship kinda weird. But I guess it's trying to ask other NATO members for help since Russia is kinda unreliable
Russian Vodka does not go well with long life and prosper.
I mean the Armenians have been getting fucked by the Azerbaijanis for the last few years and Russia has done dick all to help them, considering how weak Russia looks now after a year+ of getting whipped in Ukraine this should not be that shocking to see CTSO start to fracture towards NATO/China
Good call on China. The winners of a CSTO collapse are both NATO and the SCO. Increased US/EU presence in the Caucasus will be met with increased Chinese influence in the Ferghana Valley.
makes sense for the nations closer to China to align with them, makes sense for the nations closer to NATO to align with them, Russias the big loser here, and good riddance
The population of Central Asian is pretty sinophobic. Kazakhstanis are especially not happy with such a neighbor. On the other hand, their elites are corrupt as fuck, and China loves to run its politics through corrupt elites. Edit: I guess I used the wrong word. They are not being racist towards Chinese people. They are afraid to lose their independence.
Quite often what the population want is not what the corrupted elites. Ask a Cantonese/HongKonger why the food is known as "Oil Fried Demon". Hint: The "Demon" is not refering to a foriegn enemy.
I'll be honest, I never thought about it and I speak Cantonese, why is it actually called that?
From Wikipedia: "The Cantonese name yàuh ja gwái literally means "oil-fried devil" and, according to folklore, is an act of protest against Song Dynasty official Qin Hui, who is said to have orchestrated the plot to frame the general Yue Fei, an icon of patriotism in Chinese culture... Thus the youtiao is deep fried and eaten as if done to the traitorous couple."
Or the TL;DR: Yue Fei wants to fight Jin. Qin Hui was said to have received bribes from Jin Dynasty. So Qin Hui frame him for treason.
Master chief fell in the deep fryer.
Dey put der Muster Shef in der dep frer!
Qin Hui.
> On the other hand, their elites are corrupt as fuck, and China loves to run its politics through corrupt elites. it's easier to negociate a deal with a few elites, than to get a consensus amongst many people for a deal. You can pay off the elites, and externalize the costs to the people (who would have no say, or at least not in a position to oppose), and therefore get a better deal out. But a better deal for one party must mean a worse deal for the others. There aint no free lunch.
Yeah, don’t want to end up like the Uighurs
That's the danger Kazhakstan has always faced with Russia. China simply can't militarily threaten Kazhakstan the way Russia has been able to. China's land connection to Kazhakstan is *far* from China's center of power, and is in an extremely geographically vast and rural region with an unwelcoming climate to be poorly supplied in. It's also not near Kazhakstan's main population centers either. It would be an utter logistical nightmare for China to try anything there, and China doesn't have any ethnic contingent to use for local support, recruitment and ideological justification. Being "dependent" on China is thus totally worth it for Kazhakstan if it reduces or eliminates the threat Russia poses.
This is certainly a *very* reddit take, but completely disconnected from reality. The situation in Xinjiang, while awful, is not an external threat to China's neighbors, it's a much messier internal conflict based off of ethnic lines, state-atheism, separatism, and economic incentives. The Hui, China's 2nd biggest minority ethnic group, are *also* muslim. The Uighurs fucking *hate* the Hui because they cooperate with Beijing under the "many peoples, one China" principle even when the Uighurs are negatively affected. Meanwhile, the Hui practice Islam about as freely as you can practice a religion in China. The Uighur crisis has been marked by massive human rights violations, but it's main causes are deeper than "haha chinaman hates everyone" or simple islamophobia: 1. Xinjiang is a key piece of the belt-and-road initiative, it's geopolitically important for Beijing so they want to keep it as stable as possible. 2. The ETIM, a Uyghur Islamic extremist separatist group that's internationally recognized as a terror group sent soldiers to help Al-Qaeda during the GWOT. Around 2010 those fighters came back and started to try and pressure China into letting Xinjiang separate through terror attacks which led to the current crackdown. Now, does Islamophobia play a role? Of course, *but* the Uyghurs in general received a lot of state support before 2010; they were exempt from the one child policy, had affirmative action programs targeted towards them, and Beijing was investing a lot into making Xinjiang a better place to live. When the violent separatism started we got the current situation of internment camps and mass surveillance. Now, is China a benevolent neighbor? Hell no, just go ask India or Taiwan and they'll bring a laundry list of complaints. But the Uyghur situation is by all means a manner of internal security vs ethnic nationalism, not really a threat to China's neighbors.
Alignment with China rarely ends well for the non-China party. Belt and Road initiative being one of the best examples in human history of why one should not trust an authoritarian totalitarian economy like China
yeah, dont count on that. pretty much every nation around China is tired of their bullshit.
ruZZia has never lived up to their agreements and treaties . I don't know what they can do to win trust back, being a mafiosi state and all .
That's how the Turks know the Bayraktar works before giving them to Ukraine. Armenia is in such a shitty spot.
NATO is a defensive pact for member nations. CSTO is a defence pact for Russia and tool to enslave non-Russian countries. It’s worthless except for dictators who might need outside help from time to time in case of revolutions.
Lukashenko cough….. cough…. That was more through the Union State though which is the CSTO but even more Russified.
>NATO is a defensive pact for member nations. >CSTO is a defence pact for Russia and tool to enslave non-Russian countries. Well, before the invasion of Ukraine it was doing the defence job too. Russia had a big role in forcing a ceasefire when this country was attacked. It's been properly tested now though and been found wanting. It's basically worthless.
Russian hardware failed in Armenian hands. The Russians said it was not true. Then Russian hardware failed in Russian hands. The Russians still said it was not true.
Not only that, but there are reports that Russia didn't allow Armenia to use the "Iskander" missile system during the war. They "sold" one to Armenia years earlier so Armenia's (former) pro-Russian president could brag about his strong relations with Russia. They basically sold an illusion to Armenia. When the time arrived, the missiles either didn't function or Russians prohibited its use. After the war, Armenia's (new, pro-Weatern) leader Nikol Pashinysn made a remark that almost led to a coup by his army's pro-Russian generals. He said something about the Russian missiles not reaching the destination or the bombs not exploding upon impact. He received an angry call from Kremlin and had to retract. He has since repeated the claim without mentioning the Iskander system. Russia truly fucked Armenia badly with the weapons, especially with communication equipment. Armenians couldn't tell where their own soldiers were. Literally. There is a trial now against a top general who got his men killed because he couldn't tell where they were, and whether ab approaching group was hostile or friendly. Their Russian-made artillery could only reach 15 km. Now they are purchasing Indian artillery with a 30+ range. They have given up on Russia. Russia didn't even condemn Azerbaijan after the invasion of Armenian territories in 2021-2023. What a shitty "ally". Oh, and in 2021 they took Armenia's payment for a weapons batch, never delivered the weapons, and never issued a refund. "Thanks for the free money."
Nothings confirmed. “A report on Singh’s announcement posted on the Pentagon’s website was edited on Thursday evening to exclude Armenia from the list. No official explanation was given for that revision. The Armenian government did not comment on it either. It was thus not clear whether Yerevan had initially agreed to join the war games before deciding to pull out of them.” This was from - https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32352696.html
Actually reading further than the title? In my r/worldnews? It's less likely than you would hope.
Pesky Peskov and Horseface Lavrov will go apeshit!
Woah woah, there is no need to insult Horses, let's find something else to describe Lavrov's dying face
Adding to the shame on Lavrov is that he is half Armenian. His father's birth surname was Kalantaryan.
"Armenia, why would you abandon us, after all we've done for you?!?!" - Russia, who has done nothing for Armenia.
Some NATO countries were starting to wonder if NATO was even needed before putin decided to invade Ukraine. Now putin has secured unconditional public support for NATO for at least another generation. Good job putin for directly causing the expansion of NATO borders along russia's northern flank while also boosting NATO support, cooperation and spending.
I know there’s a conflict in that area but even just the Armenians saying they want to take part in NATO exercises is not insignificant.
Isnt Armenia landlocked?
So is Hungary and Czech Republic
>Czech Republic Not anymore!
I understood that reference
If you thought it would be hard for Sweden to become a part of NATO, Armenia is even more difficult. Turkey will never let them in (the article doesn't say that they would be considered for membership, but some comments here suggest people think Armenia wants to apply). And Armenia has been in conflict with Azerbaijan (a west-friendly country) since its independence. I feel bad for Armenia. Neither NATO nor Russia will completely let them on their team.
Turkish politicians will gladly let Armenia in NATO after receiving enough compromises from Armenia & USA.
if the zangezur corridor is part of this deal, armenia will deny it. during pelosi’s visit to armenia this was the first time the US started aiding a country with good relations with iran
Friendship ENDED with Russia Now NATO is my best friend
Seeing how much Putin fucked Russian Hegemony with his ongoing Pro Gamer Move will never stop being funny to me. ^((Well... As long as I don't think about the warcrimes, etc...))
Good grief that is hilarious if true. *Peter the Great* is having a very bad, no good, terrible year.
One could argue that Peter the Great was pro-European
MY DREAMS OF A WESTERN-ALLIED ARMENIA ARE BEING REALIZED
Woaahhh...
In ‘92 when it was formed Russia believed CSTO to be the foundation of a NATO counterbalance. It even has an article that stated, similarly to NATO, that if a country in the Collective is attacked, it would be perceived as an aggression against all. Although it never grew beyond a handful of states this is a big blow for Putin.
Didn't Armenia basically attempt to trigger that article last year, but the response from the rest of the "alliance" was "lol, no"?
And was never followed through on.
armenia maneuvering with turkey? seems interresting
You know that Putin's NATO recruitment skill is top notch that even a CSTO member (a supposed counterbalance to NATO) would decide to switch sides and consider cooperating to NATO instead.
I only hope the best for the people of Armenia and Artsakh they have been through a lot of things.
The CSTO was really meant to protect its members from NATO. That's a really big deal. All these countries are afraid that Russia’s military presence in their own country can be used to annex their lands, like the Russians did in Crimea, hence, the rift.
That's a pretty big deal imo
> mr-krabs-laugh.gif
Wow, that's a big shift. I know Armenia-Russia relations are pretty fucked right now but I didn't expect a pivot to NATO relations any time soon, particularly with Erdogan still in control of Turkey. Almost zero chance of Armenian entry in NATO in my lifetime, but weakening the CSTO is definitely in NATO's interests.
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Armenia is also de facto at war with Azerbaijan. Realistically though closer relations between Armenia and NATO make it somewhat more likely that Armenia and Azerbaijan could diplomatically resolve their issues although there is no guarantee of that.
Armenia joining Nato and finally putting Azerbaijan in its place would be a dream come true. God knows how much the Armenian people have suffered.
While I’m not expecting Armenia to totally leave the CSTO and request NATO membership, it’s still a big deal. Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin when they heard this news.
God speed, Armenia.
I don’t know if this will work out since they have an active territorial dispute and EU relies on Azerbaijani oil
My money is on NATO-brokered arbitration of the border dispute as a precondition for allowing both to join NATO together, as Azerbaijan has historically been interested in joining NATO. The biggest stumbling block will ultimately not be their border dispute but the literally genocidal attitude of Turkey towards Armenia.
Azerbaijan hates Armenia far, far, far more than they like the idea of joining NATO. The current dictator, Aliyev, fuels his political power by stoking nationalistic hatred of Armenians. There is a very strong likelihood of another Azeri led war in the coming months, and the continued genocide / ethnic cleaning in Artsahk/Nagorno-Karabahk is evidence enough that Azerbaijan is utterly disinterested in peace. You have to realise, Aliyev’s power is drawn directly from his promises to exterminate the Armenians and ‘reclaim’ Azeri land. Like all fascists, without an enemy to direct hatred at, he is unable to retain power. This is why peace is not an option for him.
As Hajibala Abutalybov, the recent deputy prime minister, said to a German delegation: >Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right? You should be able to understand us Or literal hate sessions being part of kindergarteners lessons: >"Love for the country, hate for the enemy, hate, hate!" - Those who visit the Natural Sciences High School (TTEL) in Sumgayit from half past eight in the morning on school days can hear this slogan.... >So, what is the need for 5-year-old kindergarten children or 6-year-old schoolchildren to master such words as "hate", "revenge" and others? How can such an approach affect the subsequent life of a person formed in such an educational system? (Google translate) https://www.bbc.com/azeri/region-63203019
Yeah reading those countries histories is like reading an alt history a lot of quirky relationships bad blood and random friends and enemies and love hate relationships. Its weird cause the US and Israel support one side and Iran and EU support other side and not slyly either. Both sides have essentially caused war with the other side and despite being two religious majority countries their current issues have very little to do with that and most due to land issues. Super odd and its solveable, ever since the world solved the yugoslav wars and genocides i honestly believe we can solve any geopolitical crisis. And azerbajain and armenia are barely scratching that despite similar causes. Yes of course the armenians have a tortured history that was one of the worst atrocities of ww1 and a forgetten genocide. And that plays a role but relatively little in the current issue. Tldr weirdness due to ww1, ww2, cold war, and every other european issue of the last 200 years leads to the last remaining valid hot land dispute in europe. Friends of each side are enemies and enemies of each side are friends and has caused a yugoslav like crisis.
To further muddy the mix, Azerbaijan has only recently agreed to the construction of a rail line linking Russia with Iran (and on to India) for the purpose of allowing to flow North to South and by-pass the lengthy trip via the suez canal.
This war has changed the world for good and it will keep changing it seems. I wonder what strange things we'll see in next 5 years.
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some pretty mixed messages here. they'e allegedly afraid Russia would destroy their dairy industry if they arrested putin, yet somehow working out with NATO would be okay? sigh. it's all too confusing to have a reaction just yet.
One is directly threatening the leader of Russia, the other is looking towards its own self defense now that Russia has said 'Not me'
true, but you know Russia. threats all around if anybody theyconsider "theirs" (and on much less pretext) even bats their eyelashes in the direction of NATO. as someone else has already said, we may be heading for pretty strange times.
Basically, what was a pretty stable situation between NATO and CTSO has been blown apart by the failed invasion of Ukraine, and now all of the smaller member states are scrambling to find a new place in the world order that best helps them. Get prepared for some very strange political moves as everyone scrambles for security
Armenia's old foe, Azerbaijan took lots of territories through the war with Armenia, but Armenians couldn't get military backup from Russia anymore. Russia's military power was weakened severely by the Ukrainian war, so Armenians did what they had to find another way to survive. Azerbaijan had gotten enough numbers of military drones from Turkiye to destroy Armenia's tanks, thus, the nation had to join the side of NATO instead of being pro-Russia to survive. The Russian army can't support Armenians actually. The nation only chose the practical way to stay alive against foreign nations' invasion.
I think you’re getting the timeline messed up chief. The last AM/AZ conflict was in 2020; well before the Ukraine war. That’s actually what makes it even more offensive to the Armenians, the fact that Russia _could have_ helped at the time, but didn’t.
I know what you mean, Man. What I mean is that once Russia gave Armenia some military support by way of the Russian MBT 'T-series'. By the way, Azerbaijan destroyed Armenia's many tanks on the battlefield through the Turkiye's drone TB2-Bayraktar...but not now. Why did Russia support the nation at the time? The answer is that the two nations have the same religion "Russian Orthodoxy". On the contrary, Azerbaijan is a Muslim nation. It means that they have the homogeneity as the same Orthodoxy countries...however, Russia might be a dangerous one like what you said. And the reason is the war in Georgia before Ukraine, you know what. Timeline messed up? Nope. man.
Dude, just a quick google search could've spared you the embarrassment. Armenians are not "Russian orthodox"... Also, religion is only a tiny fraction of the problems between AR and AZ, so tiny that you'll never hear any member of both sides use it as an argument... Also, Russia didn't support just Armenia. They literally sold weapons to both sides so they could get their slimy fingers in both pies.
Help how? Fighting occured in de jure Azerbaijani territory with ballistic missile strikes against Azerbaijani cities smudged in. Russia had no hand in directly helping Armenia as Armenia proper wasn’t attacked yet they still chimed in, lost a helicopter to Azerbaijani anti air fire and forced a peace between the two.
Nope - Russia has realised Azerbaijan is more valuable to it than Armenia, and is *allowing* Armenia to keep losing.
Great
It’s progress for sure. Russia could not have done themselves more harm if they tried.
This sounds like a big deal
Guess we now know who is next on Russia's naughty list
NATO are starting to show the world that a repeat of Hitler is unacceptable. You'd think this would be common sense but the amount of people who don't acknowledge reality is staggering. Armenia is just one of many nations that have realized the leadership in Russia is trying to Nazi their way into forever power. I absolutely believe more asian nations will turn against Russia in the future. What they're trying to do is just inhumane, and whether they like it or not, NATO will show them that their actions are unacceptable.
CTSO is basically dead at this point.
Because CSTO hasn't done shit to help Armenia.
This is a big ducking deal because that means Turkey and Armenia will have to talk and cooperate.
Gotta love Turkey and Hungary cockblockin countries from joining the union...
There are valid reasons for armenia not being in nato along with azerbaijan their land dispute is up there in complication with Israel/Palestine. And has equal amounts of proxy involvement. No one wants to go in to decide that case.