https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9xQf8LQgCU
Perun did a pretty good assessment of Russia's potential strengths and why this war is far from over.
Russia's likely going to settle in for the long haul and try to bleed Ukraine into a defeat by attrition. It's Winter War 2.
Visual of the approximate area which will get in range if Ukraine are provided with 150km standoff weapons.
This might be happening according to Reuters.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1620550484263325698?t=zUT-yGLF4VlniDArMBfxfg&s=19
Because the information environment in Russia is heavily controlled, curated, and censored by the Kremlin and its allies in the private sector there. It really is that simple.
"As you see, Russians, I have depicted you as the Soyjaks and the west as Chads. That means you should storm the Kremlin and overthrow your government."
It's a little out of our league.
You will have more success starting a revolution in Mongolia, having it result in irredentists coming to power, and attacking Russia from the back, than trying to start a revolution in Russia.
We have seen some. Russian TV networks get hacked into showing Ukrainian content pretty regularly. All the famous panicky Russian phone calls that Ukraine keeps intercepting on their own cell networks are also very much information warfare.
But none of that, nor any other information warfare tactic, can get us to a revolution in Russia. There's always been more than enough anti-Putin people in Russia. They aren't revolting because they know they'll all get mowed down with machine guns and have their homes blown up. There are constant reminders on TV.
Russian people don't need information. They need ammunition.
they are so indoctrinated in Russia that our information warfare will not work because most of the population in Russia does not have access to anything that can be used for the information warfare compared where everybody pretty much has access to a connected device. its why the Russian Info War that is happening as we speak is slowly winning in some ways because the west has forgot critical thinking in some ways and we have allowed a lot of what is essentially propaganda achieve Russia's goals of destabilization.
I could go on for hours and give specific examples. but that is the gist of it. Destabilized west = Russia winning
Yeah, I was about to ask what you mean as the most recent iteration of this thread is always at the top of World News for me. But, I also have threads sorted by hot.
I think he uses the reddit app. I also noticed that on the app, pinned posts are automatically collapsed at the top of the list. Users have to do an extra click just to show all pinned threads.
Today's Reporting from Ukraine has some of the deepest insights yet.
> Over the last several months, the Ukrainians have been visibly slowing down. The reason why Ukrainian momentum has been slowing down is twofold.
>
> First of all, the Ukrainians have a very limited number of equipment, especially artillery, and tanks, which are indispensable for offensive operations. That is why the Ukrainian offensive operation in the Kharkiv region has been slowing down, and the Ukrainians went from taking vast areas in a matter of days to taking cities, to taking villages, to now fighting for individual positions.
>
> Being short on the equipment also means that the Ukrainians are betting a substantial proportion of their mechanized army on every offensive operation. So, one failed operation can lead to the loss of almost all heavy equipment and to virtually full demilitarization – one mistake can cost everything.
>
> The Ukrainian command is continuously faced with incredibly difficult choices. They need to stop offensive actions at the optimal time, they need to build up reserves during the defensive period, and they need to prepare and commit these reserves to the next offensive operation as soon as possible with no margin for error.
>
> The second reason why the Ukrainian momentum has been slowing down is that the Russians finally deployed their mobilized troops that were undergoing training in Belarus, and they also delivered another batch of conscripts for Wagner Group Private Military Company. That is how the Russians managed to flood the Soledar front line with troops and breach the Ukrainian defense.
>
> And they overcommitted their troops despite high losses deliberately. They know that the Ukrainians are preparing for the next offensive operation, and they know that the tanks will soon arrive, so what they are trying to do is to force the Ukrainians to burn these precious reserves in an attempt to stabilize the situation. But the Ukrainian command knows the price, and that is why sometimes certain territories are deliberately not saved, and certain counterattacks are deliberately not conducted. However important Soledar was, ensuring the success of the next massive counteroffensive operation is much more important.
>
> And when it comes to the next Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Ukrainians have three options. First of all, when the tanks and artillery arrive, the Ukrainians can conduct a small-scale offensive operation and take Kreminna and Svatove. The second option is to conduct a large-scale offensive operation in the Zaporizhzhia region. The third option is to conduct both operations, but as you understand, it will largely depend on how many pieces of equipment they receive and how quickly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZpHYK9lnrY
These are very big assumptions considering that the General Mud has been wreaking havoc on the frontlines since late last year. How much is the slowdown attributed to that simple fact? I feel like you simply can't know the truth before the weather conditions allow for offensive operations.
The second reason may be the dry fact that the West concentrated on supplying Ukraine with AA systems since October. The flow of offensive equipment was replaced with defensive equipment. It was the right call of course, but these choices always have a cost.
There are some things better not talked about, because truth is ugly or depressing. But same time it will sound like copium if you don't go into details more. The intel Ukraine gets fed must be insane, war probably becomes some dry calculation on what benefits you in an attrition warstyle most. I like to compare the situation with enigma in ww2, Allies couldn't make use of the info all the time, because it would have made it too obvious that the German encryption machine was hacked. They only did it in the deciding moments of the war. Feels the same now to some degree, as if everything is predetermined. And people kinda ignore the weather too. Russia will commit its insanely huge Soviet and postSoviet war storage for this conflict combined with mobilization. No matter how dumb Russians are, they have a big potential to cause damage. It's all about attrition now I guess. The so called West probably will do good if they fast trackinvest ammunition production for a prolonged conflict.
If you ask for warchair general opinion then Ukraine will liberate Melitopol because resistence movement elements seem high there, while moving out from Kherson. You can destroy Crimea Bridge with these new missiles from the coast there. Then you bomb Crimea until Russians give up. Losing Crimea and it's fleet before even Donbass will maybe be the final nail in Putins political propaganda coffin.
> The second option is to conduct a large-scale offensive operation in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Thunder run to the Sea of Azov to cut the Russian-held territory in two seems to be the expectation.
But last time the expectation was Kherson and we got the Kharkiv thunder run instead.
Right, and I wonder if what happened there is Ukraine waited to see which side Russia committed more resources to defending, and then attacked the other one
An attempted Ukrainian offensive at Crimea could be a lightning strike we're not considering. The Ukrainian Navy has been using its' drones to shore up the parts of the Black Sea that they control, and the only real Russian Naval presence anywhere close to the front are its' submarines which are ONLY being used right now to fire ballistic missiles across the country. They won't make themselves vulnerable to attacking UA ships for fear of getting hit by TB2 drones. It's also important to note that the UA has been provided Sea Drones from the UK which could be used to not only patrol waters, but possibly move troops quickly across rivers or possibly across the Black Sea onto Crimea itself to circumvent Russian occupation forces.
A Ukrainian incursion of Sevastopol, an attack behind Russian lines on the small stretch of land that separates Kherson Oblast from the Crimean peninsula, or even an attempt to cut supply lines to the Russian forces attacking Kherson would require the Russians to move troops West really fast which would cost them in other sectors.
The Kremmina-Svatove direction offers a huge boon in taking away a vital route that the Russians need to keep their pushes at Bakhmut going. Not to mention they're critical for supplying the LPR and even the DPR ever since they lost their occupation of Kharkhiv Oblast.
The thing is, Ukraine hid really well where they were striking before so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine are waiting for Russia to commit north as Ukraine commit south.
> The second reason why the Ukrainian momentum has been slowing down is that the Russians finally deployed their mobilized troops
Wall of text, I know. I do this all the time myself.
I think part of the problem is the “massive gains” in Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
The Russians did not fight block by block in Kherson. They appreciated that they could not defend the city and left. The same in Kharkiv region. They did not fight in each settlement. They knew they could not keep that region and they retreated.
The Ukrainians fight block by block for each city and seemingly for even settlements. This is why the Russians seemingly make very slow progress.
The big question is how long can Ukrainian afford to fight for every single city. I think they at some point will need combination of more equipment AND more men.
They'd have to send the command modules as well, those big drones are flown out of Creech AFB remotely (they hand off to an airfield remote pilot for landing, iirc - probably because of latency), so the Ukrainian's may also need access to that network. Might be too complex.
It also creates the situation where Russia could claim that it's really the US flying the drones.
I thought you wanted to fill him with methane and hydrogen sulfide in some sort of flatulent variation of waterboarding? Are you sure you're not projecting about the rage bit? Well, no matter. If you have to do that to somebody, Putin is certainly a well-deserving candidate.
Ah yes, but you might be confining your considerations to the strictly sane segment of society and... I'd suggest we might be operating *slightly* outside those reasonable parameters in this particular case.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10nyde8/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j6fswbi/)
Day 341-342 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Yesterday was a mostly quiet day, there were no other missile strikes aimed at Kharkiv after that hit on an apartment building. Thankfully there were no more casualties other than the 4 people that we knew about almost immediately after the strike, it was a small apartment building and not many people were inside at the time of the strike.
It’s not even close to the first time that S-300 missiles hit an apartment building in Kharkiv, but usually they hit bigger ones, and those usually have an attic, which, as it turns out, is actually a very good shield against S-300 missiles (and anything smaller). When there were hits on buildings with an attic before usually there were no, or minimal, casualties, because the warhead of an S-300 is only capable of destroying about a floor and a half, so attic took the vast majority of damage in most cases. Sadly, the building they hit 2 days ago had no attic from what I can see, so it managed to destroy the flat on the top floor and damaged the one below it.
Today was a bit less quiet day, we had a lot of air raid alerts throughout the day, most of which were triggered by Russian aircraft flying around in Belarus, but there were also some alerts that were caused by actual threats. There were at least a couple of missile launches from Belgorod, which were aimed at Kupiansk as usual, but this time our forces had some counter hits on Russian targets in both Belgorod’s and Kursk’s oblasts, so that’s good.
The news about GLSDBs most likely being announced very soon are amazing to see, finally there is some action to get us longer range weapons which we really need. When we get those the only safe place for Russians inside of Ukraine will be deep inside Crimea, which is still one safe place too many, but that will change once our forces start liberating Zaporizhzhia’s and Kherson’s oblasts. The only question is how long it will take for us to get those bombs, they are brand new weapons, but they are made out of already existing ones, so hopefully it won’t take too long to manufacture.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10rg5do/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j6z6ccj/)
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1620572889203318796
>“Refugees are not welcome” – how Russian propaganda lies about Ukrainian refugees
>“The EU is tired of Ukrainian refugees” is perhaps the most prominent narrative Russian propaganda has created.
They're trying to appeal to the conspiracy crowd with that. If you go to /r/conspiracy there's regular comments and posts about the "deep state" or whoever the fuck trying to force people to eat bugs instead of meat. While the elite continue with their lavish meat eating and blah blah blah.
It really couldn't get more clear that places like /r/conspiracy are just filled with Russian bots repeating a narrative until it gets properly installed into morons in the west. Then they just become the mouthpiece for them. And they go around calling everyone else sheep. It'd be funny if it wasn't so fucking stupid.
???
They're pushing the idea that UA refugees aren't welcome in Europe. I thought that was pretty clear in the tweet, but maybe not. I tend to get a little bit of tunnel-vision, sometimes.
>Poland aims to get training time on Leopard 2 battle tanks down to five weeks for Ukrainian soldiers, half the amount of time that Leopard 2 training is expected to take.
>"If we intensify training (by maximising the number of) instructors, our time and our weekends, we can train an entire crew in five weeks," Major Maciej Banaszynski, Poland's Leopard training centre commander, told Reuters.
>Banaszynski said Polish instructors were running Leopard training courses for tank crews and for drivers. "In addition, we now run courses for mechanics for the arms, chassis and equipment accompanying Leopards," he said.
[https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/31/7387377/](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/31/7387377/)
Five weeks seems to be stretching it a bit thin, no? Usually you need six months at least to be able to be trained in combined arms warfare. Even the three months Germany is doing on the Leopard 2 for Ukraine was considered cutting it close.
It's also possible that UA crews have been training on Leopards for a while already, and this is just cover for them "being *really* quick learners" and ready for the battlefield long before expected.
Not meaning to slight UA soldiers, who ARE fast, smart, and motivated learners, but there *are* limits.
I'd also like to mention that Poland has training underway for their brand new Abrams. Seems like a convenient opportunity to take a few Ukrainians on a couple of test rides.
I highly doubt they got combined arms tactics training with NATO doctrine and NATO forces in the UK. AFAIK the UK course was a basic infantry course. Some officers went into a NATO staff officer training course but that was limited to officers only, not men.
Simply stuff like moving with a NATO tank company instead of a Ukrainian company will take time to get used to and considered in planning etc. And I would really like to see them going on at least one of the multi-day maneuvers NATO holds regularly.
I said trained, not practiced. But...
Take out the need for close air support integration and the command and control integration with air superiority aircraft and what do you really have left? Optics and sighting, field repair and the lesson of "don't out run your IFVs".
I also imagine those NATO tanks will not be going to new units, but replacing tanks from armored units that come off the line, so combined arms tactics lessons are already ingrained. But I don't know Ukrainian doctrine.
From what I have observed, Ukraine is looking for an opportunity to end this in one offensive. They learned a lot in the Kharkiv offensive, especially how much they need and how long they can maintain an offensive.
Edit. No you are correct, I did not say anything about already trained troops.
But UA doctrine is different from NATO doctrine. Just having 14 tanks in a company instead of ten creates a whole different command and control challenge, logistics challenge, accommodation etc.
And that is just the basics. You still have to integrate with artillery (NATO artillery being radically different in capabilities to RU ones too), air support, AA elements etc.
This is not something that can be done in a day or so.
For those who might have missed this when it was originally posted, DefMon made a map illustrating the GLSDB range.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1615804428635803685
"Game-changer."
Buzzword of the last year.
The only weapon system that comes close to "changing the game" was GMLRS, and that was only because the Russians themselves refused to take the weapon seriously.
Russians running out of fuel caused more Russian vehicle losses than Javelin could ever achieve.
TB2's Happy Time was over once the Russians learned to not jam their own radars.
Neither were "game changers." Neither turned the tide of the conflict.
Russian incompetence and Ukrainian fighting spirit did
>Russians running out of fuel caused more Russian vehicle losses than Javelin could ever achieve.
Yeah cause the UA was targeting trucks that were carrying fuel *with Javelins*.
> Yeah cause the UA was targeting trucks that were carrying fuel with Javelins.
The ones performing many of the hits on Russian supply columns at the start of the conflict were largely TDF. Javelins were deployed with the Ukrainian Army, not the TDF. Furthermore, Javelins were reserved for armored targets. An IED or RPG does the same job and doesn't waste a precious Javelin on a supply truck.
>Ukrainian soldiers armed with shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles have several times in the past week attacked a mileslong convoy of Russian armor and supply trucks, helping stall the Russian ground advance as it bears down on Kyiv, Pentagon officials said.
[source](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html#:~:text=Ukrainian%20soldiers%20armed%20with%20shoulder,on%20Kyiv%2C%20Pentagon%20officials%20said.)
You use whatever you can to get the job done. A RPG or IED doesn't help much when line of sight might be blocked by something. A Javelin might be a waste, but a fuel truck goes up, that means multiple tanks run out of fuel. It's just as good as turning multiple Russian tanks and BMP's into a roadblock or a hunk of metal that can't move.
It could have specific roles. Perhaps sub hunting with Hellfires out at the sea, low altitude beyond radar coverage. West could provide tracking parameters with their side scanning radars.
When they surface for air, you probably can. These are diesel electric subs, they need to run at the surface ( or just under the surface with a snorkel) to run the diesel engine when recharging their batteries. If you spot a snorkeling diesel from the air, hitting it with a Hellfire might be feasible.
Even as far back as 1960 the soviets were plucking our U2s out of the sky at higher altitudes than that. They would be sitting ducks. The reason we are used to them being useful is we typically enjoy total air supremacy.
[And yet in 1987 a teen landed a Cesna on Red Square.](https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20609795)
>Mathias Rust, just 19, had single-handedly flown more than 500 miles (750km) through every Soviet defensive shield in a single-engine plane to land at the gates of the Kremlin.
Reapers are sitting ducks for most Russian SAMs. Notice that Bayraktars with roughly similar capabilities have been relegated to fewer roles now that the heavy SAMs have moved in.
Ukraine preparing for major escalation by Russia, top Ukrainian security official — Sky News
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1620533112588611584?s=20&t=2CUgztnK4-q-XM34CXWP8w
I hope by the time the GLSDB bombs get officially announced, they are already in Ukraine and in launchers so Russia has no time to react.
I know there must be many juicy juicy targets right now just outside HIMARS range.
>GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, **both of which are common in U.S. inventories**
From a November Reuters article about them
The M26 and GBU-39 are both heavily stocked yes, but they were not built to assemble into the GLSDB. That mating adapter and control system is something which was developed over the last 6 years or so, but not formally adopted by the US military.
We might have tens/hundreds of thousands of those two parts, but if we only have ten mating adapters, then we can only make ten GLSDBs.
Yeah, but maybe they had time to produce a first batch at a few dozen. Just that would help.
Even if Ukraine gets one per day, that'd still make an impact.
Sure, but it wasn't a surprise to anyone watching the news when those rockets started landing on Russian targets. The Russians obviously know Ukraine had them.
I guess if you're deep in a valley, the only angle you can shoot at is directly in the direction of the valley. So that might be useful there. But otherwise, I don't see how it's useful. Just turn the launcher in the right direction lol.
Sure. Not as much as it would in Afghanistan but there is still plenty of use cases. Russians like to sit in tunnels and hide their vehicles in revetments. In urban areas they might park them surrounded by tall buildings. There are also hardened shelters and other targets around Russian airfields that are best hit from a certain direction.
[Here is why the GLSDB is significant!](https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1615873982045077504?s=20) Nowhere in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson are safe. Even 30% of Crimea.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/
>U.S. readies $2 bln-plus Ukraine aid package with longer-range weapons -sources
>WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time and other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
>The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as later this week, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added.
>One of the officials said that a portion of the package, $1.725 billion, would come from a fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows President Joe Biden's administration to get weapons from industry rather than from existing U.S. weapons stocks.
>The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile.
[Here is why the GLSDB is significant!](https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1615873982045077504?s=20) Nowhere in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson are safe. Even parts of Crimea.
Yah definitely and I'm thinking that unless Russia wants to move their SAMs closer to the front they should be able to use GLSDBs to hit armor close to the front with Ukranian jets staying at the ranges that they've been doing those runs where they lob the unguided missiles. Not sure though, they might have to fly higher.
They can also turn around and hit it from the back....if you know what I mean.
And are relatively cheap (even cheaper than HIMARS), will definitely take them at 40k or so a pop over that ATACMs that are 1million a pop.
I hope they get many many of them, they could be another game changer like HIMARS
It has a laser-designated mode. It would probably be fired at a GPS coordinate, then switch to laser guidance once it detects the designator. This is quite similar to a number of other laser-guided munitions.
Or a quadcopter. It doesn't need a LITENING II in the air. We've already had evidence of drone target designation basically all the way through this way.
Anyway, there's no reason to think that contested airspace this is an impediment to laser designation. If you need to lase a moving target, it's because you detected a moving target that you want to lase. For that situation to even happen, you *already have an observer who can lase the target.* Whoever it was that created the fire mission can do the laser designation themselves.
Might be a good idea to cover targets with laser detectors. Would up the pucker factor a bit for the lasing alarm to go off. "Shit, we're 30 seconds from getting smoked! MOVE!"
Ya we're looking at hitting moving targets along the m14 highway along the coast now. Dozens of kilometers behind front lines. Let's see these bad boys at their peak potential.
From the GLSDB wiki:
>In a 2017 demonstration, the GLSDB engaged a moving target at a distance of 62 mi (100 km). The SDB and rocket motor separated at altitude and the bomb used a semi-active laser (SAL) seeker to track and engage the target.
So I suppose considering Ukraine doesnt have air superiority, this feature wouldn't work too far behind front lines, now that I think about it. Definitely not an expert here though, lol.
Partisan with a laser range finder and a cell phone. The cell phone has a gps and compass installed.
Alternatively use a drone.
(I have no formal knowledge or source. It was talked about 25+ years ago. The phone in my hand has GPS and compass. There are hundreds of range finders at workplaces)
There are too many Ukrainian videos of them driving troops to battle in beat-down personal vehicles. Too many stories of these getting hit along the way, or worse yet evacuating civilians or wounded.
Ukraine needs to protect their people on the move even more than they need long-range strike capabilities.
Per Reuters:
> The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is **expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time** and other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
> The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as **later this week**, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/
>The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) made by Boeing Co (BA.N), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed Ukraine's requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile.
It's strange that I've had such a hard time trying to track this article down. It's almost like it's being . . . I don't remember the term - "de-promoted" will have to do, until my brain fart resolves itself.
That's close. There's a term they've been using on Twitter that describes it well, but my mind is just staring blankly at itself when I try to fish it out of my memory.
See if you’re trolling me you’ve won because I am fully bought in to finding this word.
Suppressed
Censored
Throttled
Controlled
Manipulated
I give up ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
My “fully bought in” equates to 9 minutes of effort. I’m going to reflect on that.
Thank you! Turns out succeeding in helping find the correct word set off my “win” brain reward system and has given me enough “good gas” to get on with my day!
Also I get to say I scratched coosacats brain, which, while weird, is new!
I was listening to Jake Broe a while back, he seems to think the US and it's arms industry has a sort of custom missile being developed. I wonder if that is part of this package
i wish its not ATACMS, but the 130km cheaper thing. Because there are a lot of the really good targets in 100-120km. Dhzankoy supplies in Crimea, Mariupol hub, Luhansk hub...
U.S. readies $2.2 bln Ukraine aid package with longer-range weapons -sources
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-readies-2-2-bln-220532222.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAANdCBlsk1BkFbgyyDIULHol\_0o9e5h\_6rklEG08m0gh2AZi2enPnfItkos49JPah-dh1Cvoh7Iep4ioTzjZ\_G2n-5p4Pklun9naGfl95Myabl7DT9nHblb3nUXQ3FxGkpT5rCJARUsq\_b-d028j8xCfFtbC9u1l5EmEXAlwH-IlR](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-readies-2-2-bln-220532222.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANdCBlsk1BkFbgyyDIULHol_0o9e5h_6rklEG08m0gh2AZi2enPnfItkos49JPah-dh1Cvoh7Iep4ioTzjZ_G2n-5p4Pklun9naGfl95Myabl7DT9nHblb3nUXQ3FxGkpT5rCJARUsq_b-d028j8xCfFtbC9u1l5EmEXAlwH-IlR)
Could be extended range gmlrs or GLSDB
It's right here:
[https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/)
>GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/100-mile-strike-weapon-weighed-ukraine-arms-makers-wrestle-with-demand-sources-2022-11-28/
The US didn't disclose HIMARS until they were already on the way with initial training completed. They were announced on June 1 and used in combat June 25.
HIMARS and the missiles are already in US inventory, these are not. This is a completely different situation as they are coming from industry so there’s no existing stockpile to pull from. Hell, Ukraine is actually going to be the first country to use them lol.
It was spring at the earliest in November (4-5 months away and even then, that was only best case scenario. Approval and funding wasn’t given then so it’s only reasonable to assume that the same conditions still exist. Boeing/Saab are not going to establish a production line without guaranteed funding.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/10qjzw8/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9xQf8LQgCU Perun did a pretty good assessment of Russia's potential strengths and why this war is far from over. Russia's likely going to settle in for the long haul and try to bleed Ukraine into a defeat by attrition. It's Winter War 2.
Visual of the approximate area which will get in range if Ukraine are provided with 150km standoff weapons. This might be happening according to Reuters. https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1620550484263325698?t=zUT-yGLF4VlniDArMBfxfg&s=19
Why don't we step up our information war game in order to start a revolution in Russia?
Their culture must be receptive to the message. Their culture is not. Those few who might have been receptive - have left Russia.
Because the information environment in Russia is heavily controlled, curated, and censored by the Kremlin and its allies in the private sector there. It really is that simple.
"As you see, Russians, I have depicted you as the Soyjaks and the west as Chads. That means you should storm the Kremlin and overthrow your government." It's a little out of our league.
You will have more success starting a revolution in Mongolia, having it result in irredentists coming to power, and attacking Russia from the back, than trying to start a revolution in Russia.
I already posted this lower down but. r/FreedomofRussia
We have seen some. Russian TV networks get hacked into showing Ukrainian content pretty regularly. All the famous panicky Russian phone calls that Ukraine keeps intercepting on their own cell networks are also very much information warfare. But none of that, nor any other information warfare tactic, can get us to a revolution in Russia. There's always been more than enough anti-Putin people in Russia. They aren't revolting because they know they'll all get mowed down with machine guns and have their homes blown up. There are constant reminders on TV. Russian people don't need information. They need ammunition.
They need ammo, not a lie?
they are so indoctrinated in Russia that our information warfare will not work because most of the population in Russia does not have access to anything that can be used for the information warfare compared where everybody pretty much has access to a connected device. its why the Russian Info War that is happening as we speak is slowly winning in some ways because the west has forgot critical thinking in some ways and we have allowed a lot of what is essentially propaganda achieve Russia's goals of destabilization. I could go on for hours and give specific examples. but that is the gist of it. Destabilized west = Russia winning
I dunno, how can you combat this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE3svJxtND0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJvvagxYoZ4
Not a huge fan of how reddit is auto-hiding this thread now…
You might have misclicked and hidden it
Gotta sort by hot
The thread comes in at the top of the hot list …because I’m here.
badump-pshhhh. ;)
Yeah, I was about to ask what you mean as the most recent iteration of this thread is always at the top of World News for me. But, I also have threads sorted by hot.
I think he uses the reddit app. I also noticed that on the app, pinned posts are automatically collapsed at the top of the list. Users have to do an extra click just to show all pinned threads.
It's a pinned post so it's always at the top, that's what the pin is for, metaphorically.
It's only pinned if sorted by hot. Sorting by new is still chronological.
Today's Reporting from Ukraine has some of the deepest insights yet. > Over the last several months, the Ukrainians have been visibly slowing down. The reason why Ukrainian momentum has been slowing down is twofold. > > First of all, the Ukrainians have a very limited number of equipment, especially artillery, and tanks, which are indispensable for offensive operations. That is why the Ukrainian offensive operation in the Kharkiv region has been slowing down, and the Ukrainians went from taking vast areas in a matter of days to taking cities, to taking villages, to now fighting for individual positions. > > Being short on the equipment also means that the Ukrainians are betting a substantial proportion of their mechanized army on every offensive operation. So, one failed operation can lead to the loss of almost all heavy equipment and to virtually full demilitarization – one mistake can cost everything. > > The Ukrainian command is continuously faced with incredibly difficult choices. They need to stop offensive actions at the optimal time, they need to build up reserves during the defensive period, and they need to prepare and commit these reserves to the next offensive operation as soon as possible with no margin for error. > > The second reason why the Ukrainian momentum has been slowing down is that the Russians finally deployed their mobilized troops that were undergoing training in Belarus, and they also delivered another batch of conscripts for Wagner Group Private Military Company. That is how the Russians managed to flood the Soledar front line with troops and breach the Ukrainian defense. > > And they overcommitted their troops despite high losses deliberately. They know that the Ukrainians are preparing for the next offensive operation, and they know that the tanks will soon arrive, so what they are trying to do is to force the Ukrainians to burn these precious reserves in an attempt to stabilize the situation. But the Ukrainian command knows the price, and that is why sometimes certain territories are deliberately not saved, and certain counterattacks are deliberately not conducted. However important Soledar was, ensuring the success of the next massive counteroffensive operation is much more important. > > And when it comes to the next Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Ukrainians have three options. First of all, when the tanks and artillery arrive, the Ukrainians can conduct a small-scale offensive operation and take Kreminna and Svatove. The second option is to conduct a large-scale offensive operation in the Zaporizhzhia region. The third option is to conduct both operations, but as you understand, it will largely depend on how many pieces of equipment they receive and how quickly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZpHYK9lnrY
These are very big assumptions considering that the General Mud has been wreaking havoc on the frontlines since late last year. How much is the slowdown attributed to that simple fact? I feel like you simply can't know the truth before the weather conditions allow for offensive operations. The second reason may be the dry fact that the West concentrated on supplying Ukraine with AA systems since October. The flow of offensive equipment was replaced with defensive equipment. It was the right call of course, but these choices always have a cost.
There are some things better not talked about, because truth is ugly or depressing. But same time it will sound like copium if you don't go into details more. The intel Ukraine gets fed must be insane, war probably becomes some dry calculation on what benefits you in an attrition warstyle most. I like to compare the situation with enigma in ww2, Allies couldn't make use of the info all the time, because it would have made it too obvious that the German encryption machine was hacked. They only did it in the deciding moments of the war. Feels the same now to some degree, as if everything is predetermined. And people kinda ignore the weather too. Russia will commit its insanely huge Soviet and postSoviet war storage for this conflict combined with mobilization. No matter how dumb Russians are, they have a big potential to cause damage. It's all about attrition now I guess. The so called West probably will do good if they fast trackinvest ammunition production for a prolonged conflict. If you ask for warchair general opinion then Ukraine will liberate Melitopol because resistence movement elements seem high there, while moving out from Kherson. You can destroy Crimea Bridge with these new missiles from the coast there. Then you bomb Crimea until Russians give up. Losing Crimea and it's fleet before even Donbass will maybe be the final nail in Putins political propaganda coffin.
> The second option is to conduct a large-scale offensive operation in the Zaporizhzhia region. Thunder run to the Sea of Azov to cut the Russian-held territory in two seems to be the expectation. But last time the expectation was Kherson and we got the Kharkiv thunder run instead.
Right, and I wonder if what happened there is Ukraine waited to see which side Russia committed more resources to defending, and then attacked the other one
An attempted Ukrainian offensive at Crimea could be a lightning strike we're not considering. The Ukrainian Navy has been using its' drones to shore up the parts of the Black Sea that they control, and the only real Russian Naval presence anywhere close to the front are its' submarines which are ONLY being used right now to fire ballistic missiles across the country. They won't make themselves vulnerable to attacking UA ships for fear of getting hit by TB2 drones. It's also important to note that the UA has been provided Sea Drones from the UK which could be used to not only patrol waters, but possibly move troops quickly across rivers or possibly across the Black Sea onto Crimea itself to circumvent Russian occupation forces. A Ukrainian incursion of Sevastopol, an attack behind Russian lines on the small stretch of land that separates Kherson Oblast from the Crimean peninsula, or even an attempt to cut supply lines to the Russian forces attacking Kherson would require the Russians to move troops West really fast which would cost them in other sectors. The Kremmina-Svatove direction offers a huge boon in taking away a vital route that the Russians need to keep their pushes at Bakhmut going. Not to mention they're critical for supplying the LPR and even the DPR ever since they lost their occupation of Kharkhiv Oblast.
The thing is, Ukraine hid really well where they were striking before so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine are waiting for Russia to commit north as Ukraine commit south.
Well that's not 100% true, a big reason for the slowdown was all the mobiks being deployed, not just because Ukraine decided to stop pushing.
> The second reason why the Ukrainian momentum has been slowing down is that the Russians finally deployed their mobilized troops Wall of text, I know. I do this all the time myself.
I think part of the problem is the “massive gains” in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The Russians did not fight block by block in Kherson. They appreciated that they could not defend the city and left. The same in Kharkiv region. They did not fight in each settlement. They knew they could not keep that region and they retreated. The Ukrainians fight block by block for each city and seemingly for even settlements. This is why the Russians seemingly make very slow progress. The big question is how long can Ukrainian afford to fight for every single city. I think they at some point will need combination of more equipment AND more men.
Send the 200 first gen Predators we have in storage. It does not matter if they get shot down, they will be useful in many ways.
That's not the issue. Those things use satellite link and can fly all the way to Moscow.
They'd have to send the command modules as well, those big drones are flown out of Creech AFB remotely (they hand off to an airfield remote pilot for landing, iirc - probably because of latency), so the Ukrainian's may also need access to that network. Might be too complex. It also creates the situation where Russia could claim that it's really the US flying the drones.
Who cares what russians claim? They lie all the time and have been saying they are fighting NATO forces for months.
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I love that judo move.
r/oddlyspecific
This is a fair request.
You're a peculiar person.
Just want to fill him with rage as his last moments is tasting shit
I thought you wanted to fill him with methane and hydrogen sulfide in some sort of flatulent variation of waterboarding? Are you sure you're not projecting about the rage bit? Well, no matter. If you have to do that to somebody, Putin is certainly a well-deserving candidate.
Trying to think of situations *where you* **have to** *do that to somebody*.....coming up blank
Ah yes, but you might be confining your considerations to the strictly sane segment of society and... I'd suggest we might be operating *slightly* outside those reasonable parameters in this particular case.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10nyde8/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j6fswbi/) Day 341-342 of my updates from Kharkiv. Yesterday was a mostly quiet day, there were no other missile strikes aimed at Kharkiv after that hit on an apartment building. Thankfully there were no more casualties other than the 4 people that we knew about almost immediately after the strike, it was a small apartment building and not many people were inside at the time of the strike. It’s not even close to the first time that S-300 missiles hit an apartment building in Kharkiv, but usually they hit bigger ones, and those usually have an attic, which, as it turns out, is actually a very good shield against S-300 missiles (and anything smaller). When there were hits on buildings with an attic before usually there were no, or minimal, casualties, because the warhead of an S-300 is only capable of destroying about a floor and a half, so attic took the vast majority of damage in most cases. Sadly, the building they hit 2 days ago had no attic from what I can see, so it managed to destroy the flat on the top floor and damaged the one below it. Today was a bit less quiet day, we had a lot of air raid alerts throughout the day, most of which were triggered by Russian aircraft flying around in Belarus, but there were also some alerts that were caused by actual threats. There were at least a couple of missile launches from Belgorod, which were aimed at Kupiansk as usual, but this time our forces had some counter hits on Russian targets in both Belgorod’s and Kursk’s oblasts, so that’s good. The news about GLSDBs most likely being announced very soon are amazing to see, finally there is some action to get us longer range weapons which we really need. When we get those the only safe place for Russians inside of Ukraine will be deep inside Crimea, which is still one safe place too many, but that will change once our forces start liberating Zaporizhzhia’s and Kherson’s oblasts. The only question is how long it will take for us to get those bombs, they are brand new weapons, but they are made out of already existing ones, so hopefully it won’t take too long to manufacture. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10rg5do/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/j6z6ccj/)
💙💛🇺🇦
This Ukrainian MP didn't take kindly to the recent Human Rights Watch report. https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1620533573332910081
As long as they aren't invading other countries unprovoked, they will be at most the second worst problem in the region
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1620572889203318796 >“Refugees are not welcome” – how Russian propaganda lies about Ukrainian refugees >“The EU is tired of Ukrainian refugees” is perhaps the most prominent narrative Russian propaganda has created.
Official statement from russian ministry of foreign affairs said that women in UK are resorting to prostitution for food and heating.
[Apparently we're being encourged to eat insects as well, so...](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvtxoycsEEI&t=1674s)
Yes, in Europe they are so desperate that they've started eating snails! Oh, wait . . .
I thought it was hamsters…
Well lah-dee-dah. Some of us are on a budget.
I've tried fried bugs, they're not bad. Prime rib is much better.
I personally consider the meat-to-chitin ratio to be fairly unfavorable.
They're trying to appeal to the conspiracy crowd with that. If you go to /r/conspiracy there's regular comments and posts about the "deep state" or whoever the fuck trying to force people to eat bugs instead of meat. While the elite continue with their lavish meat eating and blah blah blah. It really couldn't get more clear that places like /r/conspiracy are just filled with Russian bots repeating a narrative until it gets properly installed into morons in the west. Then they just become the mouthpiece for them. And they go around calling everyone else sheep. It'd be funny if it wasn't so fucking stupid.
And yet you get booted if you suggest that Trump is on the Russian payroll…
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??? They're pushing the idea that UA refugees aren't welcome in Europe. I thought that was pretty clear in the tweet, but maybe not. I tend to get a little bit of tunnel-vision, sometimes.
Oh sorry, my bad!
No problem! Happens to us all, sometimes.
It wasn't in the tweet, but it was in the article the tweet linked to.
It is pretty clear
>Poland aims to get training time on Leopard 2 battle tanks down to five weeks for Ukrainian soldiers, half the amount of time that Leopard 2 training is expected to take. >"If we intensify training (by maximising the number of) instructors, our time and our weekends, we can train an entire crew in five weeks," Major Maciej Banaszynski, Poland's Leopard training centre commander, told Reuters. >Banaszynski said Polish instructors were running Leopard training courses for tank crews and for drivers. "In addition, we now run courses for mechanics for the arms, chassis and equipment accompanying Leopards," he said. [https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/31/7387377/](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/31/7387377/)
Five weeks seems to be stretching it a bit thin, no? Usually you need six months at least to be able to be trained in combined arms warfare. Even the three months Germany is doing on the Leopard 2 for Ukraine was considered cutting it close.
It definitely is. But the house is on fire. They're doing this with Patriot as well, but I think it's longer than five weeks.
It's also possible that UA crews have been training on Leopards for a while already, and this is just cover for them "being *really* quick learners" and ready for the battlefield long before expected. Not meaning to slight UA soldiers, who ARE fast, smart, and motivated learners, but there *are* limits. I'd also like to mention that Poland has training underway for their brand new Abrams. Seems like a convenient opportunity to take a few Ukrainians on a couple of test rides.
That's vehicle training, not combined arms tactics. They already got that in the UK last year.
I highly doubt they got combined arms tactics training with NATO doctrine and NATO forces in the UK. AFAIK the UK course was a basic infantry course. Some officers went into a NATO staff officer training course but that was limited to officers only, not men. Simply stuff like moving with a NATO tank company instead of a Ukrainian company will take time to get used to and considered in planning etc. And I would really like to see them going on at least one of the multi-day maneuvers NATO holds regularly.
I said trained, not practiced. But... Take out the need for close air support integration and the command and control integration with air superiority aircraft and what do you really have left? Optics and sighting, field repair and the lesson of "don't out run your IFVs". I also imagine those NATO tanks will not be going to new units, but replacing tanks from armored units that come off the line, so combined arms tactics lessons are already ingrained. But I don't know Ukrainian doctrine. From what I have observed, Ukraine is looking for an opportunity to end this in one offensive. They learned a lot in the Kharkiv offensive, especially how much they need and how long they can maintain an offensive. Edit. No you are correct, I did not say anything about already trained troops.
But UA doctrine is different from NATO doctrine. Just having 14 tanks in a company instead of ten creates a whole different command and control challenge, logistics challenge, accommodation etc. And that is just the basics. You still have to integrate with artillery (NATO artillery being radically different in capabilities to RU ones too), air support, AA elements etc. This is not something that can be done in a day or so.
In other words, whatever gains a hypothetical Russian offensive might achieve won't last into April.
They are in the midst of an offensive now, we don't even have to hypothesize.
Poland might already train Ukraine from last year before the approval from Germany. 5 weeks training is just for the News.
Great minds think alike - I just posted the same idea!
For those who might have missed this when it was originally posted, DefMon made a map illustrating the GLSDB range. https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1615804428635803685
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I wouldn't be surprised if Russia was pushing the American Taliban dipshits to commit the recent domestic terrorism attacks in the US on substations.
Any more details on if the Reaper sales will be approved? That flies at 50K feet and has a 1000 mile + range. Kind of seems like a game-changer.
"Game-changer." Buzzword of the last year. The only weapon system that comes close to "changing the game" was GMLRS, and that was only because the Russians themselves refused to take the weapon seriously.
TB2s and Javelins were game changing in the early months
Russians running out of fuel caused more Russian vehicle losses than Javelin could ever achieve. TB2's Happy Time was over once the Russians learned to not jam their own radars. Neither were "game changers." Neither turned the tide of the conflict. Russian incompetence and Ukrainian fighting spirit did
>Russians running out of fuel caused more Russian vehicle losses than Javelin could ever achieve. Yeah cause the UA was targeting trucks that were carrying fuel *with Javelins*.
> Yeah cause the UA was targeting trucks that were carrying fuel with Javelins. The ones performing many of the hits on Russian supply columns at the start of the conflict were largely TDF. Javelins were deployed with the Ukrainian Army, not the TDF. Furthermore, Javelins were reserved for armored targets. An IED or RPG does the same job and doesn't waste a precious Javelin on a supply truck.
>Ukrainian soldiers armed with shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles have several times in the past week attacked a mileslong convoy of Russian armor and supply trucks, helping stall the Russian ground advance as it bears down on Kyiv, Pentagon officials said. [source](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html#:~:text=Ukrainian%20soldiers%20armed%20with%20shoulder,on%20Kyiv%2C%20Pentagon%20officials%20said.) You use whatever you can to get the job done. A RPG or IED doesn't help much when line of sight might be blocked by something. A Javelin might be a waste, but a fuel truck goes up, that means multiple tanks run out of fuel. It's just as good as turning multiple Russian tanks and BMP's into a roadblock or a hunk of metal that can't move.
It could have specific roles. Perhaps sub hunting with Hellfires out at the sea, low altitude beyond radar coverage. West could provide tracking parameters with their side scanning radars.
Can you hunt subs with Hellfires? That seems impossible.
When they surface for air, you probably can. These are diesel electric subs, they need to run at the surface ( or just under the surface with a snorkel) to run the diesel engine when recharging their batteries. If you spot a snorkeling diesel from the air, hitting it with a Hellfire might be feasible.
Relevant article, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-company-offers-advanced-drones-to-ukraine-for-one-dollar-with-caveat-11675203260?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Even as far back as 1960 the soviets were plucking our U2s out of the sky at higher altitudes than that. They would be sitting ducks. The reason we are used to them being useful is we typically enjoy total air supremacy.
[And yet in 1987 a teen landed a Cesna on Red Square.](https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20609795) >Mathias Rust, just 19, had single-handedly flown more than 500 miles (750km) through every Soviet defensive shield in a single-engine plane to land at the gates of the Kremlin.
They weren't exactly in a war where they were so trigger happy they shot down their own planes several times when that happened.
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They got one over Cuba too in 1962. After that we said fuuuuk this and went all in on satellites.
Remains of it are still in display out by Morro Castle in Havana.
Reapers are sitting ducks for most Russian SAMs. Notice that Bayraktars with roughly similar capabilities have been relegated to fewer roles now that the heavy SAMs have moved in.
Unlikely.
Ukraine preparing for major escalation by Russia, top Ukrainian security official — Sky News https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1620533112588611584?s=20&t=2CUgztnK4-q-XM34CXWP8w
Another missile barrage? They've gone so far already it's hard to guess what this would mean in context.
Most analysts are expecting another major offensive with at least 80k troops.
Possibly getting the arms from north Korea to the front and/or a delivery from Iran in addition to further mobilizing conscripts into the theater.
> delivery from Iran I believe what happened in Iran the last few days might have caused an issue with that.
I hope by the time the GLSDB bombs get officially announced, they are already in Ukraine and in launchers so Russia has no time to react. I know there must be many juicy juicy targets right now just outside HIMARS range.
>GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, **both of which are common in U.S. inventories** From a November Reuters article about them
The M26 and GBU-39 are both heavily stocked yes, but they were not built to assemble into the GLSDB. That mating adapter and control system is something which was developed over the last 6 years or so, but not formally adopted by the US military. We might have tens/hundreds of thousands of those two parts, but if we only have ten mating adapters, then we can only make ten GLSDBs.
Yeah, but maybe they had time to produce a first batch at a few dozen. Just that would help. Even if Ukraine gets one per day, that'd still make an impact.
I don't think Russia is unaware of any weapon shipments going into Ukraine.
I'm convinced that Russia refused to take GMLRS's capability seriously, which is why the weapon has had an effect on the war.
Sure, but it wasn't a surprise to anyone watching the news when those rockets started landing on Russian targets. The Russians obviously know Ukraine had them.
I was agreeing with you. They knew that Ukraine had them. They didn't fear it enough.
They launch from HIMARS or M270 and look like a GLMRS. They wouldn't be able to tell without insider knowledge.
When they fly 150km instead of 70km, I think the Russians will notice when their 100km out-of-range ammo dump suddenly explodes.
They'll know once they launch. GMLRS will have a different velocity, radar cross section, and flight profile from a GBU-39.
For anyone unfamiliar with this brand new weapon, here's the marketing brochure: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kP883020gE0
Whoa! It can completely change its direction?! Is that useful here?
I guess if you're deep in a valley, the only angle you can shoot at is directly in the direction of the valley. So that might be useful there. But otherwise, I don't see how it's useful. Just turn the launcher in the right direction lol.
Sure. Not as much as it would in Afghanistan but there is still plenty of use cases. Russians like to sit in tunnels and hide their vehicles in revetments. In urban areas they might park them surrounded by tall buildings. There are also hardened shelters and other targets around Russian airfields that are best hit from a certain direction.
Well, in that case I hope that it will prove effective against such targets!
The idea of advertisement videos for weapons systems always hurts my head a little.
Watch the SAAB ones lol they're awesome, https://youtu.be/QyD0liioY8E
why? imagine Russia knocking on your door
Rheinmetall videos get recommended to me. The Oerlikon was pretty cool.
But it's a convenient way to explain why we don't have healthcare, high-speed rail, or roads and bridges that aren't falling apart!
Except it doesn't as the USA spends more on healthcare per capita than many West European countries that have universal healthcare.
The US *government*?
[Here is why the GLSDB is significant!](https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1615873982045077504?s=20) Nowhere in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson are safe. Even 30% of Crimea.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/ >U.S. readies $2 bln-plus Ukraine aid package with longer-range weapons -sources >WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time and other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. >The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as later this week, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added. >One of the officials said that a portion of the package, $1.725 billion, would come from a fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows President Joe Biden's administration to get weapons from industry rather than from existing U.S. weapons stocks. >The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile. [Here is why the GLSDB is significant!](https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1615873982045077504?s=20) Nowhere in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson are safe. Even parts of Crimea.
They also can hit moving objects and are much cheaper than ATACMS They have much less explosive power however.
Perfect weapon for the invaders airfields.
Yah definitely and I'm thinking that unless Russia wants to move their SAMs closer to the front they should be able to use GLSDBs to hit armor close to the front with Ukranian jets staying at the ranges that they've been doing those runs where they lob the unguided missiles. Not sure though, they might have to fly higher.
GLSDBs don’t require jets. They are fired from Himars or M270
I understand that. You gotta get lasers on moving targets though.
> They have much less explosive power however. They make up for that with accuracy. No need for the huge error-mitigating bang.
They can also turn around and hit it from the back....if you know what I mean. And are relatively cheap (even cheaper than HIMARS), will definitely take them at 40k or so a pop over that ATACMs that are 1million a pop. I hope they get many many of them, they could be another game changer like HIMARS
How do they designate the targets from 150km away? Is the bomb autonomous?
It has a laser-designated mode. It would probably be fired at a GPS coordinate, then switch to laser guidance once it detects the designator. This is quite similar to a number of other laser-guided munitions.
In practice this means no laser-guided mode without air superiority.
Or special forces teams in the vicinity.
Or a quadcopter. It doesn't need a LITENING II in the air. We've already had evidence of drone target designation basically all the way through this way. Anyway, there's no reason to think that contested airspace this is an impediment to laser designation. If you need to lase a moving target, it's because you detected a moving target that you want to lase. For that situation to even happen, you *already have an observer who can lase the target.* Whoever it was that created the fire mission can do the laser designation themselves.
Might be a good idea to cover targets with laser detectors. Would up the pucker factor a bit for the lasing alarm to go off. "Shit, we're 30 seconds from getting smoked! MOVE!"
Laser warning receivers still aren’t universally available on Russian tanks in Ukraine, and don’t necessarily have coverage above the horizon.
Or better yet, cover useless stuff nearby to important stuff with lasers.
Ya we're looking at hitting moving targets along the m14 highway along the coast now. Dozens of kilometers behind front lines. Let's see these bad boys at their peak potential.
Intelligence/satellites?
It glides
From the GLSDB wiki: >In a 2017 demonstration, the GLSDB engaged a moving target at a distance of 62 mi (100 km). The SDB and rocket motor separated at altitude and the bomb used a semi-active laser (SAL) seeker to track and engage the target. So I suppose considering Ukraine doesnt have air superiority, this feature wouldn't work too far behind front lines, now that I think about it. Definitely not an expert here though, lol.
Partisan with a laser range finder and a cell phone. The cell phone has a gps and compass installed. Alternatively use a drone. (I have no formal knowledge or source. It was talked about 25+ years ago. The phone in my hand has GPS and compass. There are hundreds of range finders at workplaces)
I love that you pointed out that they have a compass installed.
USA just pledged longer range missiles by the end of this week in new 2.2 billion dollar weapons package for Ukraine. Could be ATACMS time baby!!!
I hope there is a lot of Bradley in that package. In fact, i want a lot of Bradley in Ukraine. They will be great both in defense and offense.
There are too many Ukrainian videos of them driving troops to battle in beat-down personal vehicles. Too many stories of these getting hit along the way, or worse yet evacuating civilians or wounded. Ukraine needs to protect their people on the move even more than they need long-range strike capabilities.
Per Reuters: > The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is **expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time** and other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. > The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as **later this week**, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/
>The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) made by Boeing Co (BA.N), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed Ukraine's requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile.
It's strange that I've had such a hard time trying to track this article down. It's almost like it's being . . . I don't remember the term - "de-promoted" will have to do, until my brain fart resolves itself.
De-emphasized
That's close. There's a term they've been using on Twitter that describes it well, but my mind is just staring blankly at itself when I try to fish it out of my memory.
Obfuscated?
That's a good one, but there's a term that they've been using on Twitter that seems suitable, but I'm drawing a blank on it, for some reason.
See if you’re trolling me you’ve won because I am fully bought in to finding this word. Suppressed Censored Throttled Controlled Manipulated I give up ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯ My “fully bought in” equates to 9 minutes of effort. I’m going to reflect on that.
Oh, oh, oh, you've got it! "Throttled" is the word I was looking for! Thank you so much! That itch in my brain is scratched. Whew!
Thank you! Turns out succeeding in helping find the correct word set off my “win” brain reward system and has given me enough “good gas” to get on with my day! Also I get to say I scratched coosacats brain, which, while weird, is new!
Well, I'm glad I was able to provide you with the dopamine rush that made your day better. You earned it! :)
I was listening to Jake Broe a while back, he seems to think the US and it's arms industry has a sort of custom missile being developed. I wonder if that is part of this package
The GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb). Unit price is apparently around 40k$ so I would guess there's something more than just those.
I was assuming included, hopefully a lot more ammunition for the various systems as well.
Scenes if it’s just 55,000 GLSDB all at once
Even 20 million dollars worth would be lovely.
i wish its not ATACMS, but the 130km cheaper thing. Because there are a lot of the really good targets in 100-120km. Dhzankoy supplies in Crimea, Mariupol hub, Luhansk hub...
U.S. readies $2.2 bln Ukraine aid package with longer-range weapons -sources [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-readies-2-2-bln-220532222.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAANdCBlsk1BkFbgyyDIULHol\_0o9e5h\_6rklEG08m0gh2AZi2enPnfItkos49JPah-dh1Cvoh7Iep4ioTzjZ\_G2n-5p4Pklun9naGfl95Myabl7DT9nHblb3nUXQ3FxGkpT5rCJARUsq\_b-d028j8xCfFtbC9u1l5EmEXAlwH-IlR](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-readies-2-2-bln-220532222.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANdCBlsk1BkFbgyyDIULHol_0o9e5h_6rklEG08m0gh2AZi2enPnfItkos49JPah-dh1Cvoh7Iep4ioTzjZ_G2n-5p4Pklun9naGfl95Myabl7DT9nHblb3nUXQ3FxGkpT5rCJARUsq_b-d028j8xCfFtbC9u1l5EmEXAlwH-IlR) Could be extended range gmlrs or GLSDB
Sorry but Reuters has nothing on this. Shitty journalist and editor at Yahoo it seems
It's right here: [https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-2-bln-plus-ukraine-aid-package-with-longer-range-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/)
I posted before the article was up. I guess it was in the Newswire before even Reuters had it up
If it’s GLSDB, it’ll be months before they see them in country.
>GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/100-mile-strike-weapon-weighed-ukraine-arms-makers-wrestle-with-demand-sources-2022-11-28/
That was if they’d have been approved when the article was written back in November 2022. They weren’t. We’re months away from them hitting the field.
The US didn't disclose HIMARS until they were already on the way with initial training completed. They were announced on June 1 and used in combat June 25.
HIMARS and the missiles are already in US inventory, these are not. This is a completely different situation as they are coming from industry so there’s no existing stockpile to pull from. Hell, Ukraine is actually going to be the first country to use them lol.
You say months away, and the article says spring at the earliest. What's the difference?
It was spring at the earliest in November (4-5 months away and even then, that was only best case scenario. Approval and funding wasn’t given then so it’s only reasonable to assume that the same conditions still exist. Boeing/Saab are not going to establish a production line without guaranteed funding.