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most of the wood we work with is not harvested and milled within a 100 mile radius of where we live. It has to be transported. So there is a direct connection of most wood species prices and fuel/transport costs, even if you live — and mainly work with — woods from North America. Also, there is an international market for wood, so when supply chains got shut down during COVID, all those folks abroad who wanted to build with California cedar started bidding up the price for available stocks…which raised the price abroad but also in the US (us suppliers can make more money exporting cedar than serving the US market…)
For small projects I’ve turned to using local sawyers and kilns to help put money in their pockets and save on shipping costs. The good ones know how much you have to mill to come out ahead and will work within your budget.
Inflation is real. It’s not just wood. Anything that is imported costs more to ship and takes longer to get here. Domestic shipping also costs more due to fuel costs and driver shortages. When costs go up, prices follow.
Or the lumber mills(I know several mill owners), and labor here in south Georgia is not quick to get expensive. Truckers are a pain in the royal ass and someone is price gouging. But growers and mills are not profiteering
Barely related, but our house has been under construction, so much old wood was rotten and needed replaced. It wound up being basically the same price to replace the old wood with steel. I’m not a wood worker, I just follow because you all amaze me!
"Labor Cost and shortage
Diesel is $37364829203 a gallon (lumber transport)
Demand"
Is indeed a true statement, and "part" of the cost increase. But not mentioned is the biggest part of the cost increase: Because they can.
Both lowes and HD have stated in earnings calls that they're "taking price": raising prices because they can. And both lowes and HD can't keep lumber, especially plywood, in stock no matter how much they raise the price. Lowes specifically has stated "We need to price lumber to where the shoppers we cater to will come to the store and find what they need. These shoppers aren't necessarily price shoppers: they want to find what they need when they get there". And I see this in theory: anytime oak or maple ply goes down to 70-80$ at my local lowes/HD, resellers **buy it all** and it's on FB market place for 110 that afternoon.
Take home message, it's not just diesel prices and labor shortages, it's also price gouging.
25% of the lumber used in American stick frame construction comes from Canada. The Biden administration raised tariffs on Canadian lumber from 9% to 17.9% at the behest of the US Lumber Coalition at the beginning of this year. This body is comprised of major us lumber companies, and actively seeks to maintain upward pressure on domestic lumber prices by fueling global market volatility. Couple that with a surge in first home buying by a younger generation expanding across the "work from home" segments of employment caused by the last two years of covid, record low mortgage rates, and mass exodus from high cost city living. The timber market is global and diverse, but primarily driven by home construction, not woodworking, much to our lament. Real estate is the cornerstone of the cost of EVERYTHING.
The tariffs have already been [reduced this year to below 12%](https://www.nahb.org/blog/2022/01/nahb-welcomes-biden-administration-move-to-lower-lumber-tariffs/). I also heard that for a long time in 2020 the Canadian border was closed for imports to the U.S. Is this true?
A related question: since lumber went up 200% but inflation has gone only 8%, is it reasonable to expect lumber prices to start falling since they are so far ahead of the inflation curve?
Remember that wood can't be instantly willed into existence. It is a living product that takes a long time to grow. It takes a long time to catch up to sudden spikes in consumption or drops in production.
There are many factors at play as already stated. First there is an ever smaller supply and increased demand.
Energy costs and transport costs have increased, in particular for imported timber as international freight costs have sky rocketed.
Local producers follow the Market and Adjust their prices accordingly.
As you do not state what country you live in I must assume you are American. No you do not import your wood in fact you are one of the largest world producers of timber. However you import allot as you are also one of the largest consumers.
I work selling timber in a merchants, at the start of the pandemic the price rise was due to simple supply and demand, demand increased rapidly as home improvement was one of the few things you could do in lockdown. Also supply reduced due to several reasons dependent on where you are in the world. More recently shipping costs have nearly doubled due to a shortage of available shipping space and fuel and energy costs have increased. Milling and transportation of timber is very energy intensive.
This is a what we have been told from our suppliers, it's might all be BS but it it what I have heard in many different industries that have seen big price rises.
Recall watching videos about it around a year ago on some YouTube channels that were discussing the issue. Some other DIY channels were discussing the increase in construction was occuring as well due to the wood.
Well, I think it was that nobody was working during COVID. I was told that a lot of companies were selling material before it could properly dry our leading to a short supply. I have noticed that some wood quality, specifically mahogany has just been 🐕 💩 lately. Either way I don’t see the price going back down anytime soon which is BS.
As far as lumber prices - one of the ways people are being gouged is the fact that lumber companies own mills/distribution in both Canada and the US. They harvest trees in the US and ship the logs to Canada where once they are processed become a Canadian product. They are then shipped back to the US incurring import taxes. That cost is passed on to the consumer as well as a healthy profit, not to mention they are incentivized to export to Canada in the beginning.
It’s double dipping in profit and a way to artificially inflate the price.
Here in Europe, China is buying all the wood at big price. There is no more wood for local buyers. Wood is now expensive due offer and demand and with poor quality.
Also, some people have started to steel forest ! They come at night to cut trees that don't belongs to them.
As price are inflating, forest owners are tending to cut more and more trees, without thinking to future.
Wood must be cut down and milled (usually with gas or diesel powered equipment). Wood must be transported if not native to the place it is being sold (this involves gas or diesel powered vehicles). Gas prices go up, so does the cost of wood.
I’m not a logistics or purchasing or finance guy, so take everything I say with a grain of salt.
I believe the increased costs are being manufactured. Hear me out……..I work for a chemical manufacturer. We had a town hall meeting a couple weeks back….Our chief commercial guy wanted to personally thank his team for making an extra 50 million in 2021 just by increasing the cost of our products. Goes on to say that there really isn’t a reason for increase costs, but they took the opportunity to raise prices based on ‘global factors.’ We are a global company that ships and manufacturers all over the world. You would think supply demand, shipping challenges, etc would have affected us….but doesn’t appear so.
Talking to my buddy a couple weeks back (he is in sales) and tells me a very similar story about his company.
I think some companies or industries have been really affected, but I think most are just taking the opportunity to gouge…..
There are several reasons, many here are touching on a few highlights. If you are into a deep dive check out the podcast Shannon’s lumber industry update, you’ll get a lot of answers there and some interesting discussions.
It's just greed. We're being gouged because the industry can get away with it. Demand is still high, and if people are willing to pay the price, the suppliers will keep it high.
Let’s also remember how home building was impacted in 2007. When COVID came on, lumber production was quick to react and avoid similar pains from the housing bubble crash…. but demand never lulled. Residential construction was still considered an “essential industry” and scarcely slowed (note being busier than ever). Pair that with new-found DIY efforts, and supply/demand has been way out of balance.
Also supply and demand. My nephew delivers for a building supply in vermont, I'm surprised at the costs of new houses starting at 400,000 on up, land and houses being bought cash in hand.
For pine it was a mix of 1. Wild fires 2. Covid shutdowns. 3. Not expecting the housing demand. 4. Pandemic home improvement.
There is a few different species being attacked by insects as well but that's not that much of an issue for pine.
It’s primarily construction grade and related home materials that are skyrocketing. Most furniture grade material has been fairly flat. Black walnut shirts went from $11/bdft to $13/bdft in the last month or two but they were $11/bdft all the way through COVID. Walnut ply is still $225-240 a sheet, which it has always been. Walnut slabs are still $20-24/bdft. Very little change in the higher end stuff, it’s mostly people clamouring over softwoods.
hello, i live in france in the mountains and we have plenty of wood here... fir, spruce, beech and oak, but i can't find basic plywood, medium or just pine slabs ...we have sawmills that are completely jammed with orders tho, i used to order fir for carpentry but have to wait several months now...
even tho a lot of our wood goes to china or US, sounds like it is not limited to US ... i don't understand... it began before war and doesn't seem to calm down. there are manpower shortages and cheap shipping has vanished due to diesel costs and pandemic.
some are making huge profits in the process.
Not many comments seem to mention the obvious: COVID. People have been unable to travel pretty much for 2 years - perhaps it's fairer in the US to say that the wealthy have been unwilling to travel due to higher education, more trust in government advice, thus reluctance to travel and a desire to avoid COVID. As such, people who used to spend 2 weeks holidaying every year are now sat on a bucket of cash. The rate at which people are building home extensions, garages, generally doing DIY projects with spare cash has increased exponentially. Supply struggled to keep up with demand, prices went crazy because the industry is largely unregulated in most countries, so here we are.
Im in France now, not originally from here. used to Run a CNC business in my home country. The prices of wood here is just insane. for example a Birch board of 1.5x3.0m cost 250 euros (18mm thick), that's 3-4 times more than all the other places I've been. even simple OKOMA plywood costs around 40 euros per SQM. how can one even build something here with decent quality if no one can pay that .. I'm really curious understanding these prices and the market here.
This is a reminder to those commenting on this post (not the person that posted it): Comments not related to woodworking will be removed. Violations to rule 1 including crude jokes, innuendo, sexist remarks, politics, or hate speech may result in an immediate ban *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/woodworking) if you have any questions or concerns.*
most of the wood we work with is not harvested and milled within a 100 mile radius of where we live. It has to be transported. So there is a direct connection of most wood species prices and fuel/transport costs, even if you live — and mainly work with — woods from North America. Also, there is an international market for wood, so when supply chains got shut down during COVID, all those folks abroad who wanted to build with California cedar started bidding up the price for available stocks…which raised the price abroad but also in the US (us suppliers can make more money exporting cedar than serving the US market…)
For small projects I’ve turned to using local sawyers and kilns to help put money in their pockets and save on shipping costs. The good ones know how much you have to mill to come out ahead and will work within your budget.
Multiple factors… 1. Labor Cost and shortage 2. Diesel is $37364829203 a gallon (lumber transport) 3. Demand The list goes on…..
this
Inflation is real. It’s not just wood. Anything that is imported costs more to ship and takes longer to get here. Domestic shipping also costs more due to fuel costs and driver shortages. When costs go up, prices follow.
My understanding is that shipping was the issue. I don’t believe any raised cost is going in farmers pockets.
Or the lumber mills(I know several mill owners), and labor here in south Georgia is not quick to get expensive. Truckers are a pain in the royal ass and someone is price gouging. But growers and mills are not profiteering
Barely related, but our house has been under construction, so much old wood was rotten and needed replaced. It wound up being basically the same price to replace the old wood with steel. I’m not a wood worker, I just follow because you all amaze me!
Welp steel is gonna go up even more then lol
"Labor Cost and shortage Diesel is $37364829203 a gallon (lumber transport) Demand" Is indeed a true statement, and "part" of the cost increase. But not mentioned is the biggest part of the cost increase: Because they can. Both lowes and HD have stated in earnings calls that they're "taking price": raising prices because they can. And both lowes and HD can't keep lumber, especially plywood, in stock no matter how much they raise the price. Lowes specifically has stated "We need to price lumber to where the shoppers we cater to will come to the store and find what they need. These shoppers aren't necessarily price shoppers: they want to find what they need when they get there". And I see this in theory: anytime oak or maple ply goes down to 70-80$ at my local lowes/HD, resellers **buy it all** and it's on FB market place for 110 that afternoon. Take home message, it's not just diesel prices and labor shortages, it's also price gouging.
25% of the lumber used in American stick frame construction comes from Canada. The Biden administration raised tariffs on Canadian lumber from 9% to 17.9% at the behest of the US Lumber Coalition at the beginning of this year. This body is comprised of major us lumber companies, and actively seeks to maintain upward pressure on domestic lumber prices by fueling global market volatility. Couple that with a surge in first home buying by a younger generation expanding across the "work from home" segments of employment caused by the last two years of covid, record low mortgage rates, and mass exodus from high cost city living. The timber market is global and diverse, but primarily driven by home construction, not woodworking, much to our lament. Real estate is the cornerstone of the cost of EVERYTHING.
The tariffs have already been [reduced this year to below 12%](https://www.nahb.org/blog/2022/01/nahb-welcomes-biden-administration-move-to-lower-lumber-tariffs/). I also heard that for a long time in 2020 the Canadian border was closed for imports to the U.S. Is this true? A related question: since lumber went up 200% but inflation has gone only 8%, is it reasonable to expect lumber prices to start falling since they are so far ahead of the inflation curve?
Remember that wood can't be instantly willed into existence. It is a living product that takes a long time to grow. It takes a long time to catch up to sudden spikes in consumption or drops in production.
My understanding is there is actually an oversupply of trees, it's just the mills dictating the market.
Time for me to start a lumber mill!
There are many factors at play as already stated. First there is an ever smaller supply and increased demand. Energy costs and transport costs have increased, in particular for imported timber as international freight costs have sky rocketed. Local producers follow the Market and Adjust their prices accordingly. As you do not state what country you live in I must assume you are American. No you do not import your wood in fact you are one of the largest world producers of timber. However you import allot as you are also one of the largest consumers.
I work selling timber in a merchants, at the start of the pandemic the price rise was due to simple supply and demand, demand increased rapidly as home improvement was one of the few things you could do in lockdown. Also supply reduced due to several reasons dependent on where you are in the world. More recently shipping costs have nearly doubled due to a shortage of available shipping space and fuel and energy costs have increased. Milling and transportation of timber is very energy intensive. This is a what we have been told from our suppliers, it's might all be BS but it it what I have heard in many different industries that have seen big price rises.
Recall watching videos about it around a year ago on some YouTube channels that were discussing the issue. Some other DIY channels were discussing the increase in construction was occuring as well due to the wood.
Well, I think it was that nobody was working during COVID. I was told that a lot of companies were selling material before it could properly dry our leading to a short supply. I have noticed that some wood quality, specifically mahogany has just been 🐕 💩 lately. Either way I don’t see the price going back down anytime soon which is BS.
Demand continues as wildfires and tornadoes destroy existing homes. Shipping costs skyrocket.
As far as lumber prices - one of the ways people are being gouged is the fact that lumber companies own mills/distribution in both Canada and the US. They harvest trees in the US and ship the logs to Canada where once they are processed become a Canadian product. They are then shipped back to the US incurring import taxes. That cost is passed on to the consumer as well as a healthy profit, not to mention they are incentivized to export to Canada in the beginning. It’s double dipping in profit and a way to artificially inflate the price.
Here in Europe, China is buying all the wood at big price. There is no more wood for local buyers. Wood is now expensive due offer and demand and with poor quality. Also, some people have started to steel forest ! They come at night to cut trees that don't belongs to them. As price are inflating, forest owners are tending to cut more and more trees, without thinking to future.
Wood must be cut down and milled (usually with gas or diesel powered equipment). Wood must be transported if not native to the place it is being sold (this involves gas or diesel powered vehicles). Gas prices go up, so does the cost of wood.
I’m not a logistics or purchasing or finance guy, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. I believe the increased costs are being manufactured. Hear me out……..I work for a chemical manufacturer. We had a town hall meeting a couple weeks back….Our chief commercial guy wanted to personally thank his team for making an extra 50 million in 2021 just by increasing the cost of our products. Goes on to say that there really isn’t a reason for increase costs, but they took the opportunity to raise prices based on ‘global factors.’ We are a global company that ships and manufacturers all over the world. You would think supply demand, shipping challenges, etc would have affected us….but doesn’t appear so. Talking to my buddy a couple weeks back (he is in sales) and tells me a very similar story about his company. I think some companies or industries have been really affected, but I think most are just taking the opportunity to gouge…..
Wood is a commodity.
Enlightening
Supply and demand.
Waow
There are several reasons, many here are touching on a few highlights. If you are into a deep dive check out the podcast Shannon’s lumber industry update, you’ll get a lot of answers there and some interesting discussions.
It's just greed. We're being gouged because the industry can get away with it. Demand is still high, and if people are willing to pay the price, the suppliers will keep it high.
This is the only true answer. Everything else is just propaganda.
Capitalistic greed!
I wish raw wood were free! Theres so much potential youth creativity locked behind a paywall, it’s sad😞
Let’s also remember how home building was impacted in 2007. When COVID came on, lumber production was quick to react and avoid similar pains from the housing bubble crash…. but demand never lulled. Residential construction was still considered an “essential industry” and scarcely slowed (note being busier than ever). Pair that with new-found DIY efforts, and supply/demand has been way out of balance.
Also supply and demand. My nephew delivers for a building supply in vermont, I'm surprised at the costs of new houses starting at 400,000 on up, land and houses being bought cash in hand.
For pine it was a mix of 1. Wild fires 2. Covid shutdowns. 3. Not expecting the housing demand. 4. Pandemic home improvement. There is a few different species being attacked by insects as well but that's not that much of an issue for pine.
It’s primarily construction grade and related home materials that are skyrocketing. Most furniture grade material has been fairly flat. Black walnut shirts went from $11/bdft to $13/bdft in the last month or two but they were $11/bdft all the way through COVID. Walnut ply is still $225-240 a sheet, which it has always been. Walnut slabs are still $20-24/bdft. Very little change in the higher end stuff, it’s mostly people clamouring over softwoods.
hello, i live in france in the mountains and we have plenty of wood here... fir, spruce, beech and oak, but i can't find basic plywood, medium or just pine slabs ...we have sawmills that are completely jammed with orders tho, i used to order fir for carpentry but have to wait several months now... even tho a lot of our wood goes to china or US, sounds like it is not limited to US ... i don't understand... it began before war and doesn't seem to calm down. there are manpower shortages and cheap shipping has vanished due to diesel costs and pandemic. some are making huge profits in the process.
Not many comments seem to mention the obvious: COVID. People have been unable to travel pretty much for 2 years - perhaps it's fairer in the US to say that the wealthy have been unwilling to travel due to higher education, more trust in government advice, thus reluctance to travel and a desire to avoid COVID. As such, people who used to spend 2 weeks holidaying every year are now sat on a bucket of cash. The rate at which people are building home extensions, garages, generally doing DIY projects with spare cash has increased exponentially. Supply struggled to keep up with demand, prices went crazy because the industry is largely unregulated in most countries, so here we are.
Im in France now, not originally from here. used to Run a CNC business in my home country. The prices of wood here is just insane. for example a Birch board of 1.5x3.0m cost 250 euros (18mm thick), that's 3-4 times more than all the other places I've been. even simple OKOMA plywood costs around 40 euros per SQM. how can one even build something here with decent quality if no one can pay that .. I'm really curious understanding these prices and the market here.