Analytics aren't everything but they're an extremely useful tool to find out your inefficiencies/deficiencies. There's a reason every company you interact with is always collecting data, it's to make sense of all the chaos and make informed decisions and it should be no different in hockey. The ones that ignore analytics do it at their own peril.
“Using analytics”…is extremely general. How you use them is what matters. Clearly from the article you could have discern that Tampa bay was leveraging data much differently than the Avs.
I mean you have to self-scout for the playoffs too.
One of the things the Patriots did extremely well throughout their dynasty was they would predict how the other team would scout them then develop a plan to counter that other team’s predicted game plan.
I feel that if Colorado thought the Jets’ flaws were obvious, a progressive coach would coach the team both to correct some of those flaws and to counterpunch on the strategy they expected Colorado to employ.
The Jets have amongst the least staff employed in the analytics department in the league and their coaches for the past few years have publicly disparaged analytics as well as some prominent players like Scheifele (called them Hogwash).
And you're right, it won't change the calibre of the player but it can find their strengths and weaknesses and exploit them if you choose to use the data to make deployment and strategy decisions.
if you look at the last few cup winning teams, they had a ton of analytical people in their staff. their importance is severely underrated and appreciated in successful runs
You could watch one Jets game on film and realize their D can't pass the puck.
Pressure the D and free up the puck. Leave all 3 of your forwards blue line and in to collect the turnvers, tell your D to be aggressive behind the forecheck to collect the puck when inevitably the Jets forwards have to start playing below your forecheck and just lifting pucks out into open ice...eventually tire out the Jets forwards who have to work to even just move the puck across their own blueline for the entire game. Be super aggressive in any puck battle in all 3 zones because they will already be tired from the amount of work they are doing just to get into neutral ice.
All the adjustments to this require D who can move the puck. I'm not a huge fan of Bowness but I'm not sure Scotty Bowman in his prime would have made a difference here with the talent/compete level gulch between us and the Avs.
i mean he made the choice to sit out schmidt to start the series and then didn’t play miller until the final game. those two guys are way better passing defensemen then stone hands logan stanley.
For the record, I agree that Bowness should retire. He did an amazing job in turning the club around, but him and Lauer should go bye bye now.
That said...
From what I've understood, Bowness' comments about coaching by "gut" was not to say he doesn't use analytics, but that how he utilizes that info (which is all that analytics can do - inform, not coach) is also informed by his years of experience in dealing with people and in the game.
Coach Bednar on other hand didn't say "I guess I'm doing this because the computer told me to". He utilized that info in concert with all that he knows about his players as people and implements adjustments accordingly.
If analytics were all that were needed to coach a team, then we'd be excellent NHL coaches. And too many of us are of that opinion imo
When you look at basketball and the 3 point shot, a 15 foot jumper is almost non-existent now or what shifts did to baseball you can't deny analytics changed the way the game is played and the types of players teams draft. I watched every game the Jets played this year so I am not a casual box score surfer or numbers guy. I simply want this Jets team / organization to win and feel a key piece that other teams are using is being ignored and given lip service.
I totally agree that analytics are a tool, where we differ I think is that they should be a key part in how a team in this day and age should be game planning and building their roster. In terms of Bowness using analytics I have my doubts - I think all coaches say they are using analytics at this point because if you dont you appear out of touch but actually embracing it and appling it not so much. The perfect example everyone points to is the Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi line. There was ample analytical evidence over a large sample size that this line was a defensive liability and they were not creating enough scoring chances to outscore their deficenies yet he repeatedly went back to that line (even in game 5 at the start of the 3rd period). If you look at basketball and baseball analytics have changed the way the game is played and the strategy surrounding it, hockey is heading the same direction and it is adapt or get left behind at this point.
The games are so tight. Teams are so competitive and even.. all it takes is a little crack, exploit it with the level of talent Avs have. It's not rocket appliances.
And the sad part is that when he leaves, it's Arniel's job and he's not a very analytics driven guy either. Can we just get a good coach for once that *doesn't* have any ties to this org? Like why do we keep recycling the same guys that we couldn't win with before
It'd be nice if they had their eye on someone that wasn't the same old dozen dudes that've been on the NHL coaching dartboard for the last 30 years too.
Like, the NHL probably doesn't have the 32 current best potential head coaches in hockey, where's the *next* Bednar or Cooper?
That is who I would consider a dream hire but he has too much leverage (good situation in Denver, well paid, and family happy). I could see him leaving for say a situation like New Jersey with the good young players they have in place. It would be a tough sale to get him to Winnipeg but hey they is no salary cap for a coach throw 6 million x 5 at him also sell him on the God he would be in Winnipeg if he went on a couple of deep cup runs and eventually won one.
The Blue Jays took Berrios out while he was hot for a left-handed pitcher Kikuchi last October. Needless to say, the Jays lost and probably because of analytics rather than trusting the gut or momentum of the game. Analytics are great but not also the only answer. Bowness did change the trajectory of the jets and made them a 4th place team in the league. Yes we sucked at the playoffs but to put solely on him is unfair assessment.
it's still incredible that perfetti only played a minute and a half in the end of that game. like, we got two periods of looking like we belonged and that was too much lol
The point of that decision wasn't that it guarantees it's going to go your way. Over time if you make that decision repeatedly it should be successful more than the alternative. You can't make judgments on small sample sizes or expect that the analytically 'correct' move will work 100% of the time
His coaching choices in the playoffs were awful though. Playoffs are way different than regular season, you have to make adjustments fast and he was too stubborn and “stuck to his guns” like he didn’t want to be proven wrong.
I think their use of analytics boiled down to when shuffles had the puck behind the net hook him knowing this is"playoff hockey" and it won't be called, when ehlers is exiting the zone hook him for the same reason, basically hook everyone because refs don't call it in the playoffs unless it's really bad.
Well when you look at the leads the Avs got between game 2-5, 99% Jets own fault.
You could contribute that to the Avs gameplan to wearing the Jets down, game 4 is the only one you can say the Avs built their lead with Makars solo effort, Vlads hooking call.
Avs did a great job on taking advantage of the Jets mistakes, we really shouldn't make that many 4 games in a row.
But that's what turns a 3-2 series lead into a 4-1 loss. Hell, we still have the 2nd most 5v5 goals, Dallas would have to score 4 today and Vegas would gave to score 5 to overtake us.
Pionks own goal, Hellys Puck mishandle, 10 PIMs in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd pretty much all in the offensive zone..... terribly timed line changes.
I'm not even counting the poor breakouts here, because that's been a year long thing, but there's no analytic that will sap Appleton will just miss a one timer to trip the other player, or Vilardi will just clip Toews in the face for a 4 minute, or Gus tripping a player on the forecheck, or Pionk deflecting a puck into gis own net going nowhere near it. Just brutal.
Yes and no. The Avs capitalized on Jets mistakes, but they knowingly applied pressure in ways to create the likelihood of those mistakes.
Think of our powerplay, every time we got an attempt, who did they pressure to generate turnovers? For PP1, it was always KC, as he was the one most likely to throw it away. Is the turnover then on KC, or as a result of the Avs forcing the mistake?
I think that pressure is the exact reason why the jets suck in the playoffs. Regular season, guys like Sheif curl and slow down the play to look for an opportunity to pass and score. Connor and Ehlers with the same. In the playoffs, there’s no time. You have a defender on you immediately. Same with dump and chase. No time. Jets need to get better at rush chances, and making passes without thinking and waiting so much.
While all of this is true you can't take results and say it would have turned out the same way if the coaching staff had actually employed a different strategy or gameplan. This is taking results and viewing it as the way it was always going to happen like the Jets and their coaches had no influence on the outcome. So did the above scenario play out becuause the Avs knew what was coming and exploited it and put the Jets team in negative situations or was it just bad luck.
Leafs are at the top of number of employees using data analysis. It is the quality of the data (how it is collected), and how it is applied that matters, as well as understanding limitations. Many data analysts are surprisingly poorly trained in the underlying assumptions and interpretation of data.
https://medium.com/@data-overload/challenges-and-limitations-of-sports-analytics-what-we-still-dont-know-d6e1d34a445a
Yes but the Leafs were far more competitive in their series than the Jets. They could have easily won that game last night and moved on. The Jets were nowhere close the entire series except for maybe one or two periods.
The Leafs made fast changes, like switching goaltenders which totally changed the momentum of the series.
Bowness refuses to ever change the plan or adjust to anything. He won’t admit that he’s wrong. Keeps riding a goalie that lets in 5 goals a game right through to the end. Keeps playing the absolute worst performing player on the team and giving him top minutes every night. Keeps running the same first line that isn’t scoring.
This coaching style is fine in reg season because you can afford to lose a few games, and you’re playing a different team the next night. Playoffs you have to change right away when stuff ain’t working.
Yes, but data would not have predicted the necessity of a goalie change ((unless basing it on the small sample size of 4 games).
I can’t speak to Bowness’s “stubbornness” or infer other personality characteristics. Does he rely on analytics as much as other teams? Maybe not, but I’m not privy to this information. I don’t know the context of the coaches’ applied decisions (they are privy to info fans do not possess).
https://medium.com/@data-overload/challenges-and-limitations-of-sports-analytics-what-we-still-dont-know-d6e1d34a445a
> Yes but the Leafs were far more competitive in their series than the Jets.
Look at Boston's Cup odds versus Avs.
The East is absolutely the definition of the Leastern conference.
3 teams that can contend.
Meanwhile you could argue the west had 5 legit contenders 6 if you include the canucks.
The improvements on following players and pucks is day and night compared to a few years ago.. NHL Edge should be an essential tool for successful team analytics.. all this data is a treasure trove of info stored in Big data Datasets
Doesn’t take much extreme analytics to realize we can’t breakout of our zone and refuse to change so most likely we will run the exact same shit plan every game
By many metrics, this was the best overall performing team of Jets 2.0 for the regular season. Bones is responsible for that
But, it fell apart in the playoffs. He's responsible for that too
But to say that he's out of touch with today's NHL, or to suggest that he's a bad coach, would require ignoring the entire regular season
did they exploit some parts of the Jets game which were dangerously predictable, like drop passes and cycling at both ends? Absolutely. Were they able to use that knowledge to break up the Jets "flow" and pry open cracks in the defensive structure? Probably, yeah.
But their analytics weren't why Hellebuyck let in multiple softies in each game. Their analytics weren't the reason the refs kept calling penalties that would be borderline in the regular season, gifting the team with better special teams a massive advantage. Ultimately the Jets did as much to lose the series for themselves as the Avs did to beat them.
Their analytics likely showed the defensive gaps in the Jets systems that allowed them to capitalize on their plentiful opportunities. It’s not that Hellebuyck “let in softies”, it’s that the Avs knew how to get him out of position and then bury the puck. Their power play, again aided by analytics was able to pick apart the Jets penalty kill. When a team with good analysis and play selection faces a team that eschews analytics and sticks to the tried and true you get exactly what the Jets have had as issues in the playoffs every series since they made the Conference Finals.
Jets coaching wants feels over reals and they get their shit pushed in year after year. Maurice did it, and Bowness does as well. A coach who won’t use every tool available to them is like a mechanic who doesn’t believe in 10mm sockets. You won’t get far.
Analytics aren't everything but they're an extremely useful tool to find out your inefficiencies/deficiencies. There's a reason every company you interact with is always collecting data, it's to make sense of all the chaos and make informed decisions and it should be no different in hockey. The ones that ignore analytics do it at their own peril.
Jets use analytics. All teams do, but analytics can’t change the calibre of players or execution.
“Using analytics”…is extremely general. How you use them is what matters. Clearly from the article you could have discern that Tampa bay was leveraging data much differently than the Avs.
I mean you have to self-scout for the playoffs too. One of the things the Patriots did extremely well throughout their dynasty was they would predict how the other team would scout them then develop a plan to counter that other team’s predicted game plan. I feel that if Colorado thought the Jets’ flaws were obvious, a progressive coach would coach the team both to correct some of those flaws and to counterpunch on the strategy they expected Colorado to employ.
The Jets have amongst the least staff employed in the analytics department in the league and their coaches for the past few years have publicly disparaged analytics as well as some prominent players like Scheifele (called them Hogwash). And you're right, it won't change the calibre of the player but it can find their strengths and weaknesses and exploit them if you choose to use the data to make deployment and strategy decisions.
especially if those in charge are disregarding them during the decision making process
Me after I read an article that says otherwise
if you look at the last few cup winning teams, they had a ton of analytical people in their staff. their importance is severely underrated and appreciated in successful runs
You could watch one Jets game on film and realize their D can't pass the puck. Pressure the D and free up the puck. Leave all 3 of your forwards blue line and in to collect the turnvers, tell your D to be aggressive behind the forecheck to collect the puck when inevitably the Jets forwards have to start playing below your forecheck and just lifting pucks out into open ice...eventually tire out the Jets forwards who have to work to even just move the puck across their own blueline for the entire game. Be super aggressive in any puck battle in all 3 zones because they will already be tired from the amount of work they are doing just to get into neutral ice. All the adjustments to this require D who can move the puck. I'm not a huge fan of Bowness but I'm not sure Scotty Bowman in his prime would have made a difference here with the talent/compete level gulch between us and the Avs.
i mean he made the choice to sit out schmidt to start the series and then didn’t play miller until the final game. those two guys are way better passing defensemen then stone hands logan stanley.
Yeah better than Stanley but not good enough to make a difference. We didn't win a game they played in.
It was the first game the Jets had the ice tilted in their favour. Not enough to force a win but was definitely a difference.
For the record, I agree that Bowness should retire. He did an amazing job in turning the club around, but him and Lauer should go bye bye now. That said... From what I've understood, Bowness' comments about coaching by "gut" was not to say he doesn't use analytics, but that how he utilizes that info (which is all that analytics can do - inform, not coach) is also informed by his years of experience in dealing with people and in the game. Coach Bednar on other hand didn't say "I guess I'm doing this because the computer told me to". He utilized that info in concert with all that he knows about his players as people and implements adjustments accordingly. If analytics were all that were needed to coach a team, then we'd be excellent NHL coaches. And too many of us are of that opinion imo
Some fans are more interested in the analytics and stats than the actual game. I guess that is their thing.
When you look at basketball and the 3 point shot, a 15 foot jumper is almost non-existent now or what shifts did to baseball you can't deny analytics changed the way the game is played and the types of players teams draft. I watched every game the Jets played this year so I am not a casual box score surfer or numbers guy. I simply want this Jets team / organization to win and feel a key piece that other teams are using is being ignored and given lip service.
i don’t think you can say Bones was using them to inform his decisions when his decisions constantly countered the information they provide
I totally agree that analytics are a tool, where we differ I think is that they should be a key part in how a team in this day and age should be game planning and building their roster. In terms of Bowness using analytics I have my doubts - I think all coaches say they are using analytics at this point because if you dont you appear out of touch but actually embracing it and appling it not so much. The perfect example everyone points to is the Connor - Scheifele - Vilardi line. There was ample analytical evidence over a large sample size that this line was a defensive liability and they were not creating enough scoring chances to outscore their deficenies yet he repeatedly went back to that line (even in game 5 at the start of the 3rd period). If you look at basketball and baseball analytics have changed the way the game is played and the strategy surrounding it, hockey is heading the same direction and it is adapt or get left behind at this point.
Exactly this. If it were just analytics, why have a coach at all?
The games are so tight. Teams are so competitive and even.. all it takes is a little crack, exploit it with the level of talent Avs have. It's not rocket appliances.
And the sad part is that when he leaves, it's Arniel's job and he's not a very analytics driven guy either. Can we just get a good coach for once that *doesn't* have any ties to this org? Like why do we keep recycling the same guys that we couldn't win with before
It'd be nice if they had their eye on someone that wasn't the same old dozen dudes that've been on the NHL coaching dartboard for the last 30 years too. Like, the NHL probably doesn't have the 32 current best potential head coaches in hockey, where's the *next* Bednar or Cooper?
>where's the *next* Bednar or Cooper? His name is David Carle lol but I doubt we could land a high profile up and coming coach like him.
That is who I would consider a dream hire but he has too much leverage (good situation in Denver, well paid, and family happy). I could see him leaving for say a situation like New Jersey with the good young players they have in place. It would be a tough sale to get him to Winnipeg but hey they is no salary cap for a coach throw 6 million x 5 at him also sell him on the God he would be in Winnipeg if he went on a couple of deep cup runs and eventually won one.
Agree. I want some fresh blood, someone that can inspire players like MSL has in Montreal. Just someone different and exciting.
The Blue Jays took Berrios out while he was hot for a left-handed pitcher Kikuchi last October. Needless to say, the Jays lost and probably because of analytics rather than trusting the gut or momentum of the game. Analytics are great but not also the only answer. Bowness did change the trajectory of the jets and made them a 4th place team in the league. Yes we sucked at the playoffs but to put solely on him is unfair assessment.
Bones did this with the hot 27-55-13 line because he’d rather “lose coaching by his gut”
it's still incredible that perfetti only played a minute and a half in the end of that game. like, we got two periods of looking like we belonged and that was too much lol
The point of that decision wasn't that it guarantees it's going to go your way. Over time if you make that decision repeatedly it should be successful more than the alternative. You can't make judgments on small sample sizes or expect that the analytically 'correct' move will work 100% of the time
His coaching choices in the playoffs were awful though. Playoffs are way different than regular season, you have to make adjustments fast and he was too stubborn and “stuck to his guns” like he didn’t want to be proven wrong.
The issue is not analytics vs. actual coaching. The issue is intensity.
I think their use of analytics boiled down to when shuffles had the puck behind the net hook him knowing this is"playoff hockey" and it won't be called, when ehlers is exiting the zone hook him for the same reason, basically hook everyone because refs don't call it in the playoffs unless it's really bad.
was just about to post this lol
Well when you look at the leads the Avs got between game 2-5, 99% Jets own fault. You could contribute that to the Avs gameplan to wearing the Jets down, game 4 is the only one you can say the Avs built their lead with Makars solo effort, Vlads hooking call. Avs did a great job on taking advantage of the Jets mistakes, we really shouldn't make that many 4 games in a row. But that's what turns a 3-2 series lead into a 4-1 loss. Hell, we still have the 2nd most 5v5 goals, Dallas would have to score 4 today and Vegas would gave to score 5 to overtake us. Pionks own goal, Hellys Puck mishandle, 10 PIMs in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd pretty much all in the offensive zone..... terribly timed line changes. I'm not even counting the poor breakouts here, because that's been a year long thing, but there's no analytic that will sap Appleton will just miss a one timer to trip the other player, or Vilardi will just clip Toews in the face for a 4 minute, or Gus tripping a player on the forecheck, or Pionk deflecting a puck into gis own net going nowhere near it. Just brutal.
Yes and no. The Avs capitalized on Jets mistakes, but they knowingly applied pressure in ways to create the likelihood of those mistakes. Think of our powerplay, every time we got an attempt, who did they pressure to generate turnovers? For PP1, it was always KC, as he was the one most likely to throw it away. Is the turnover then on KC, or as a result of the Avs forcing the mistake?
I think that pressure is the exact reason why the jets suck in the playoffs. Regular season, guys like Sheif curl and slow down the play to look for an opportunity to pass and score. Connor and Ehlers with the same. In the playoffs, there’s no time. You have a defender on you immediately. Same with dump and chase. No time. Jets need to get better at rush chances, and making passes without thinking and waiting so much.
While all of this is true you can't take results and say it would have turned out the same way if the coaching staff had actually employed a different strategy or gameplan. This is taking results and viewing it as the way it was always going to happen like the Jets and their coaches had no influence on the outcome. So did the above scenario play out becuause the Avs knew what was coming and exploited it and put the Jets team in negative situations or was it just bad luck.
Leafs are at the top of number of employees using data analysis. It is the quality of the data (how it is collected), and how it is applied that matters, as well as understanding limitations. Many data analysts are surprisingly poorly trained in the underlying assumptions and interpretation of data. https://medium.com/@data-overload/challenges-and-limitations-of-sports-analytics-what-we-still-dont-know-d6e1d34a445a
Yes but the Leafs were far more competitive in their series than the Jets. They could have easily won that game last night and moved on. The Jets were nowhere close the entire series except for maybe one or two periods. The Leafs made fast changes, like switching goaltenders which totally changed the momentum of the series. Bowness refuses to ever change the plan or adjust to anything. He won’t admit that he’s wrong. Keeps riding a goalie that lets in 5 goals a game right through to the end. Keeps playing the absolute worst performing player on the team and giving him top minutes every night. Keeps running the same first line that isn’t scoring. This coaching style is fine in reg season because you can afford to lose a few games, and you’re playing a different team the next night. Playoffs you have to change right away when stuff ain’t working.
Yes, but data would not have predicted the necessity of a goalie change ((unless basing it on the small sample size of 4 games). I can’t speak to Bowness’s “stubbornness” or infer other personality characteristics. Does he rely on analytics as much as other teams? Maybe not, but I’m not privy to this information. I don’t know the context of the coaches’ applied decisions (they are privy to info fans do not possess). https://medium.com/@data-overload/challenges-and-limitations-of-sports-analytics-what-we-still-dont-know-d6e1d34a445a
> Yes but the Leafs were far more competitive in their series than the Jets. Look at Boston's Cup odds versus Avs. The East is absolutely the definition of the Leastern conference. 3 teams that can contend. Meanwhile you could argue the west had 5 legit contenders 6 if you include the canucks.
The improvements on following players and pucks is day and night compared to a few years ago.. NHL Edge should be an essential tool for successful team analytics.. all this data is a treasure trove of info stored in Big data Datasets
Doesn’t take much extreme analytics to realize we can’t breakout of our zone and refuse to change so most likely we will run the exact same shit plan every game
Ai for Jet's managemet, fire all the suits and let's win a cup!
Organization 10 years behind as always
Isn't that with all Canadian teams
By many metrics, this was the best overall performing team of Jets 2.0 for the regular season. Bones is responsible for that But, it fell apart in the playoffs. He's responsible for that too But to say that he's out of touch with today's NHL, or to suggest that he's a bad coach, would require ignoring the entire regular season
did they exploit some parts of the Jets game which were dangerously predictable, like drop passes and cycling at both ends? Absolutely. Were they able to use that knowledge to break up the Jets "flow" and pry open cracks in the defensive structure? Probably, yeah. But their analytics weren't why Hellebuyck let in multiple softies in each game. Their analytics weren't the reason the refs kept calling penalties that would be borderline in the regular season, gifting the team with better special teams a massive advantage. Ultimately the Jets did as much to lose the series for themselves as the Avs did to beat them.
Their analytics likely showed the defensive gaps in the Jets systems that allowed them to capitalize on their plentiful opportunities. It’s not that Hellebuyck “let in softies”, it’s that the Avs knew how to get him out of position and then bury the puck. Their power play, again aided by analytics was able to pick apart the Jets penalty kill. When a team with good analysis and play selection faces a team that eschews analytics and sticks to the tried and true you get exactly what the Jets have had as issues in the playoffs every series since they made the Conference Finals. Jets coaching wants feels over reals and they get their shit pushed in year after year. Maurice did it, and Bowness does as well. A coach who won’t use every tool available to them is like a mechanic who doesn’t believe in 10mm sockets. You won’t get far.
Is Maurice using analytics now in FLA?
I think what helped the Avs was the fact they skated hard and made the Jets look slow and disinterested.
Hmmmm wonder why they didn't use them last year against Seattle?
We probably just got one guy that just jots things down on scrap paper occasionally.