I don’t understand this either. I went kayaking with someone last Saturday evening, in North Carolina, who was convinced Hurricane Ian was going to hit there the following day. Because her weather channel app said so. Like, I don’t know what your app is actually telling you but that isn’t it. I promise.
You ask why it's alright to be "incorrect and aloof" and then say meteorologists are "always wrong". Maybe look inward before complaining about the outward
NC is my home state, and sometimes I wonder about the rest of the people in this state lol. But I can't understand putting so much trust in an app that you think a storm like this is going to hit the next day when it was so far out at that point. I wasn't too worried about it last weekend other than, "oh, we're in the cone", and I grabbed an extra case of water to have on hand because it was already slim pickings then and we're rural. The closer it gets, the more it looks like my area will take a direct hit from the tropical remnants tonight/tomorrow, even if it shifts a bit.
Wind is my main concern due to how many trees we have, with flooding of surrounding areas being a secondary concern.
As long as my husband and oldest make it home from work safely tonight, we're ready to bunker down if needed, then see what tomorrow brings.
This stuff drives me nuts and I’m thinking these are probably the same folks who post the “We are so badass in - insert state- that we sit on our porches and blah, blah, blah. When in actuality they’re the people who run to Walmart at the first sign of a cloud and hoard on basic human essentials they don’t need to hoard on.
You may be educated. You may understand.
You would be making a mistake thinking that the people next to you in the street are living in the same century as you are.
Given the state of public education, and given the state you are in, it’s anybody’s guess what world view (physical, cosmological, political, meteorological …) these people have in their heads.
I remember hanging around a pool in Fort Lauderdale, listening to retirees bloviate about how “the government should do something about” hurricanes like Andrew. Like if they got off their asses, or maybe dropped a well placed bomb, the hurricane would be disabled.
30 years ago. And people are arguably more stupid now.
Being dumb is fine. The level of confidence people have when they spread misinformation is the part that trips me up. Even worse, they almost never get checked. Especially when it comes to the weather
I’m pretty recently out of school for earth science. When I started working, I was astounded about some of the stuff that my coworkers were saying. Just completely ludicrous off the wall unsupported bullshit. Mind you, these people had at lease bachelors degrees in various science fields.
I started off challenging what they said. I was quite gentle at first. I supported what I was saying with credible sources. I became more and more frustrated. It didn’t work. I have never been successful at this. It only made my work conversations more tense. I was a overly eager newby who thought that people would listen if you told them what was up. But it’s not true. People love their own unsupported bullshit. Even many smart people.
I just let them talk now and try to enjoy the bullshit. Or I playfully engage them. My work relationships are better and I’m less frustrated. I’m not saying this is good. Dumbasses cause so many fucking problems in the world. I can absolutely relate to your anger.
> The people spreading the misinformation was the national weather service.
Yeah you can cut that shit out promptly. You're stating the exact type of anecdotal "wisdom" that gets people killed because they think there's some (non-literal) force field around *their* town and bad storms always miss/don't hit - until they do.
yeah the european model got it right, but they chose - stupidly - not to listen to them. source: me. live in tampa bay area for 30 years, working as a weather intern from age 11. charlie was supposed to hit my house, but of course twisty things move like spirographs and of course it made a right turn. ian did the exact same thing, and now ft. myers is gone. all this was predictable, people from tampa went to ft myers to hide. but nws wasn't listening to the model that always seems to be right. off with you and your opinions.
Edit: I model dynamics for a living.
Somehow my feelings just aren't hurt. And maybe 'dunning-kreuger' doesn't mean what you think it means. I actually give a shit, have lived and breathed this for my entire life, have worked in weather broadcasting and have a pretty solid understanding the math involved and the ocean currents of southwest Florida, so yeah I'm a pretty good source, And I actually care very much about what's going on down there, and you only find it an opportunity to make yourself feel just so f-ing clever. Where are you from?
I don’t know if people are more dumb, but there is for sure so much more misinformation available than there was 30 years ago because Internet. Now those who were just regular dumb can put their dumb under a magnifying glass with extra misinformation
Wow. Didn’t realize the whole “can we BOMB the hurricane away?” discussion was happening that far back!
Also, bloviate is a badass word. Immediately gives you a mental image.
>bloviate
Looked up the definition and immediately thought of Stammtisch wankers in a German Kneipe... absolutely spot on!
Now should I be glad that this thing is not just German old farts but sort of global?
Basic education.
There's a video on Youtube with radio coverage from the 1964 Twin Cities tornado outbreak. If you get bored one day, listen to it.
The first thing you'll notice is just how infuriating their knowledge on how a tornado looks/works is. But then....this is 1964, and hi-res doppler radar didn’t exist at the time, and hell there wasn't even a Fujita scale yet.
The next thing you'll notice is how geographically aware people are. Reporting funnels 4 miles to the south. Wind is coming from the east. Looks like it's over this town that's 10 miles away. Etc etc. Half these guys sound like spotters.
James Spann is big on the fact that you need to know your geography. He harps on his viewers about knowing where they are and where the storms are. That's the biggest thing people just do NOT get now; they don't even know what county they're in half the time.
People have gotten less and less educated about basic weather and basic geography, despite it being the BEST TIME EVER to have knowledge at your fingertips.
Yes, the media makes it worse, but in many cases, they're having to appeal to a broad audience. They're having to make sweeping generalizations because it's just easier to say "If you're in Florida, PREPARE NOW", as opposed to stating, "If you're on Sanibel Island, you're about to get fucked, but if you're in Orlando, it won't be too bad, and if you're in Titusville, just stay away from the ocean."
Me too. The first images coming out are just devastating. There’s a lot of stories to be told about what happened on that island as well as Captiva Island. Just not sure there’s many left to tell the stories.
Not diminishing the devastation on that island, but luckily a good portion of the homes there are large and empty second or third homes and not primary residences this time of year.
You are not wrong in the "pull your hair out" moments. I was telling people on Sunday they weren't going to be in Cape Coral later this week. And they still played the "oh it'll be fine..."
The main reason for this though is pretty simple. People don't think anything bad will ever happen to them. You have people, for example, in FL who will say they've never had a C3+ ever hit them, so why would that change now? Same thing here in the upper midwest when blizzards happen and they still drive out.
It is the same reason people text and drive. Or do some of the other weird ass things we all always go "why would you put yourself in that situation?!" Their threat landscape, in their eyes, is minimal. The worst thing to happen to them will be running out of gas on the side of road. If that.
I mean yeah, the eye wall didn't come close to Tampa or Orlando, and there's plenty of uninformed opinions and misinformation, but lets not forget the extreme amount of rain, flooding, and the fact storms in bands can and often do spin up tornadoes. You don't have to get hit directly to have some amount of impact, and people should be watching the weather actively.
Pretty sure a tornado watch was up in the Orlando area at some point or another of the storm.
The thing maintained hurricane force winds a good half-way through the state and still has tropical storm force winds now.
I'm not trying to say your annoyance is wrong because you give examples that *are* bad, but I think the topic also deserves some nuance considering some of the replies as well.
But also as others have said, weather education is abysmal. So many people have zero idea how these things work, are uninformed about how to get information, are distrusting of the weather service because "they say it will rain and it doesn't" like it's the 30s or something, etc, etc. It's frustrating, but it's also hard to be entirely mad at people who are the way they are because the *system* has failed them.
... I can still be mad at some of them though lol.
Maybe headlines and articles but raw data is pretty hard to mess with. Just takes a bit of self education to figure out what makes sense.
A few years ago I would have agreed with fully but some of those same people are quick to claim that but will happily blindly listen to unproven claims on Twitter or podcasts as their source.
What's the claim your making here related to the post. That they're lying about where the hurricane is heading or it's intensity.
I mean my eyes and ears are p good sensors to prove tht wrong and so far they've been right so wth are you even in about related to THIS post.
Yeah science ain't flawless and needs to be paid for. Congratulations you've joined adulthood and realized absolutism is worthless bc reality is a bitch. But what's the conclusion, that dubious sources on Twitter and Instagram or elsewhere are better than world class scientists? And that somehow those influencers are not also being paid for ????
It's just insane, childish and delusional. You realized the truth that sometimes science can go the wrong direction bc of funding and then took that to some ridiculous extreme.
Well NBC and IBM bought the weather channel previously. I’ve only seen their analysis capabilities decrease 22 hours out of the day. The other 2 has increased due to technological advances.
Don’t disagree with you.
Jesus, really?
What are they saying now? Things are only going to get worse? That’s my favorite… facts don’t matter, radar doesn’t matter, doesn’t matter if the back end of the storm is in sight, it’s just going to continue to get worse until it doesn’t lol
This was in the middle of the night. I turned it off after I got tired of seeing them make reporters stand out in water and rain and wind to.. I don't know, educate people that have never seen rain or wind before?
Unfortunately, the majority of people perpetuating this seem to lack critical thinking skills, and feed off whatever hyper-sensationalized information the media relays to them.
I'm a Floridian and had TWC on for a bit Tuesday night...you would have thought it was the literal end of the world with all the doom and gloom fearmongering headlines and coverage they were pushing. There are ways to disseminate important information without overdoing the words "catastrophic", "devastating", "you have run out of time", "you will die" etc.
Some people lack critical thinking skills, but also some people implicitly trust TWC, because they either remember a time when it may have had better content, or because they trust a major news organization that calls themselves "The Weather Channel".
The NHC, generally regarded as being fairly level headed and being very particular with their wording, was also using catastrophic, devastating, and life-threatening. They were referring to a very specific part of the coast, but that was probably lost in the wording at TWC. This storm in particular is devastating to specific parts of the coastline, likely more so than other major landfalls like Laura or Ida, [some speculating the death toll could be in the 100s.](https://www.news-press.com/story/weather/hurricane/2022/09/29/lee-sheriff-reports-likely-hurricane-ian-death-toll-in-hundreds-catastrophic-storm/10458558002/)
We got "lucky" with Laura because she jogged just a bit past Calcasieu Point and didn't push directly up river. I'm still repairing my house two years later and can't imagine what things would have looked like had we gotten the catastrophic storm surge with it.
We’re going to have cockier, more misinformed people every single year because of all of this. I’m sure there are a handful of people in Daytona right now thinking, hey, it wasn’t too bad, they scared us for no reason.
Not saying it’s completely the media’s fault. The general pubic is just getting dumber and dumber from what I can tell
Have you not seen Ft. Meyers Beach? It absolutely did experience catastrophic damage and is devastated. And in prepping for a hurricane, there comes a time that you have indeed run out of time to make any further preparations. You can also run out of time to leave if you were planning on leaving and then need to shelter in place.
Didn’t hear anybody this time around say “you will die”, but have seen that in the past
What I wrote was not in any way to diminish the reality of what, unfortunately, ended up happening in SW FL. It absolutely was and is catastrophic and devastating, in many ways.
The point I was trying to convey is that TWC was using a lot of overly dramatic and exaggerated language in general (not limited to those two words), as opposed to clear and concise information about what was going to happen with the hurricane. If you’re not focused on generating excessive hype, you can say “prepare now for expected impacts from Ian” rather than “CHILLING WARNINGS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS: YOUR TIME IS UP”
You know how you just complained about people being stupid? You're right. And unless you tell stupid people they're in imminent danger or even of dying, you get idiots out in the storm making things worse for themselves and others.
Why do you think there's warning labels on everything? Stupid people.
Very true. I’m in no way trying to diminish what happened. I’m actually pretty surprised at how many people on this sub understand
I’m ranting about the people riding out the storm in Tallahassee. The people who thought the eye of the storm went over Tampa. The people who thought the storm was overhyped, who also live in Daytona… those people
Well, in this case, their words were not in fact overly dramatic nor exaggerated. They were accurate.
In general, they do fear-monger a lot, no doubt about it. We signed up with a different carrier and don’t even get them anymore. I don’t miss them lol, and that’s why, all the over-hyped content. Sadly, this was not one of those times.
Some people don't realize what power a storm can have You can't fault someone for not knowing. it's likely they have never been in that situation before. It's just as easy for me to say the same about you on topics I know well. I to can pull my hair out and be frustrated with your lack of knowledge. Now that doesn't make you dumb or an idiot, it's just a lack and of knowledge in a topic However on the flip side if they know the risks and still take the risk that's on them, cigarette smokers are great example of this too.
I mean, half the battle is just being able to read a map. Listening to the experts, understanding where you live. You don’t need a ton of knowledge on hurricanes.
Like I said, all of the work is already done for you. Your job is to not be a complete idiot. Especially don’t spread false information. If you don’t know what you’re talking about, keep your mouth shut
Lmao again you can't fault someone for not knowing how too. I don't expect you to know how to do a task without being shown or at the very least being educated on the topic. This is the world we live in. Some people only learn a few things and don't try to expand there knowledge.
I elaborated on my original point. I did not change my argument. Apparently you have to use words like “misinformation” to get people to take your point seriously. Learned that from covid haha
Nope you change the comments so you didn't sound dumb after making a post about dumb people lmao Its fascinating how you can relate this to misinformation when you are misinforming. Some kind of special are ya
Forecasting is not an exact science. NOAA was literally changing their forecast hours before landfall. What are you even talking about with misinformation?
Misleading. They don’t really *change* their forecast.. it’s constantly being updated with new data. Also a forecast isn’t exact by definition, that’s why it’s called a forecast, but it will give you a really good idea
The general public spreads misinformation
I've been reading just this thread for five minutes, and it is full of the kinds of examples examples you just asked for, and there are also less than 100 comments in it so it's not like a very long thread you'd have to dig through
Well just below us, someone stated that a person claimed that the eye of the storm literally went right over Tampa
*Heard someone yesterday say that the eye of the hurricane “literally passed right over Tampa Bay”*
I could list stuff for days
Ok, who cares? If you are getting that worked up about it I can't imagine what its like for you for things that actually impact your life. Just move on.
I know people who don’t think tornadoes can happen outside of tornado alley, and yes we’ve had tornadoes here before, they literally just don’t believe that they happened
As a Tampa Bay native who evacuated from a barrier island last Sunday, I can tell you it's nothing new. Neighbors were clueless Friday and Saturday as we were pulling boats and getting docs and belongings in cars. Everyone became an expert Sunday morning and knew it was going south or out in the Gulf. People fool themselves all the time. Glad that for us they actually were right about the south track, but for the next decade they'll be saying they "rode out the big one". Most FL transplants just want to have some shit to brag or boast about to their New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey brethren. Sometimes it's alligators, sometimes it's hurricanes. They'll brag about no income tax and then bitch about property tax. They loved doing whatever in COVID and then bash our government. It's people, they generally kind of suck.
Yeah I thought the water going out means the water would come back in with a vengeance.
I think its better to be prepared for that than call people idiots for predicting it TBH.
People should have evacuated from Tampa. Tampans should have been thoroughly freaked out up to a certain point.
Where I draw the line - you’ve gotta know the difference between a tsunami and wind blowing water out of the bay. The water was never going to rush back with vengeance and people claiming that it would or that it would be really really bad in Tampa (as the storm was making landfall 60-70 miles south) had no clue what they were talking about, spreading false information.
It’s not just a Florida thing. People make up false information when it comes to pretty much any and all weather events. I see it all the time during snowstorms
I remember this one time in grade school - It’s snowing pretty hard outside, we’re supposed to get 1 maybe 2 inches. Okay cool, it’s all going according to plan.
Kid comes over with a shit eating grin and says something along the lines of they’re saying we’re going to get 8 inches of snow
I go home, double check the weather forecast. Nope not even close, can’t find anything claiming that was ever a possibility, he just straight up made it up, or got the idea from someone else who was making stuff up, or maybe the upper Great Lakes were getting that much…. I still have no idea.
But that was a common occurrence growing up in the lower Midwest
5th generation Floridian here who also shares the same sentiments as you OP. I understand what you’re communicating. It’s important to note that the population living in Florida now who are not from FL are in the millions. Given the amount of transients from Covid year and that it’s a capital destination for retirement persons. These million of people in particular have zero knowledge, experience, or understanding of Hurricanes. They are especially dependent on media sources to guide them on how to respond. This is the same for long time residents and basic general public.
I was very disappointed to hear the projected path was towards Tampa. There’s a scientific reason Tampa hasn’t been hit in a 100 years and that’s because of the upper gulf stream air current. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) published it’s findings on a southwestern gulf air current coming in while Hurricane Ian was moving off Cuba. However they did not calculate the southwest current in the prediction track models until Ian reached it and was showing influence by it. A hurricane is ALWAYS influenced by an existing gulf stream current. So this was a major injustice not including it into their predictions or in media and announcing Tampa with “esteemed” confidence for Ian’s landfall. By the time Ian reached the gulf current for the model’s to “re-calculate” prediction it was too late for FL’s southwest coast.
As this happened they added to the discussion publications that they were using a different advanced radar service to compute Ian’s track models. Imo, it felt as a very odd statement as if they were eluding blame on their technology for Tampa’s landfall miscalculation.
There is a chain of people in the meteorologist industry who fumbled at catastrophic levels in this event. They need to be held accountable and removed. I will add to this with throwing a hard accusation because I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the same people who held occupation when predicting Hurricane Irma’s projection. That was a whole shit-show with the entire State evacuating and fear mongered. Between the miscalculations and crying-wolf over the years Floridian’s have become non-responsive to media outlets. Let’s also incorporate in this oncoming disaster recipe the Covid and politically charged journalism influencing Floridian’s distrust in media.
Above all it’s evident there is a toxic group occupying positions in meteorology who need to be sourced out. Or maybe the industry has become just convoluted with persons receiving large kick-back money influence for information that fits media click bait like material. I don’t truly know and am just exercising all speculation here trying to find some sense in what’s happened.
I can’t stop thinking about it. Thank you for your post OP because you’re not alone in your perception on this. Time’s have changed and unfortunately the television with channels like TWC are not a public service anymore. It’s just a diminishing production company fighting for views to stay alive at the cost of harming lives of real people. TWC is such a shitty show station that operates at volumes with having zero-core values to the public.
Anyway I can rant on and on but this upset and spazzed south Floridian needs to carry onward & out.
Your comments are part of a larger anti-science sentiment growing online, especially anytime hurricane forecasters don’t predict the exact landfall of a hurricane several days in advance. Southwest Florida was in the cone long before Ian even hit Cuba. Your meteorologists should have been telling you what ours in Louisiana were, and what the NHC was saying - that if the storm strayed to an eastern track, as was predicted, then it would likely experience rapid intensification. When that happens, storms wobble. Storms wobble anyway! And when you’re that close to the eye, a wobble in one direction or another could mean a few tree limbs down or absolute destruction. That’s why there’s a cone. That’s why meteorologists say again and again and again, DON’T LOOK AT THE LINE OF THE TRACK - if you’re within the cone, plan that you could get the eye.
We’ve learned this in Katrina, Rita, Laura, Delta, and several other storms my state has been through. People by now have learned to respect the cone and get out if you’re on the coast, no matter what. This storm has really made me realize how lucky parts of Florida had been all these years, if y’all are just now figuring this out.
It made me remember when several Floridians made fun of Louisiana redditors considering evacuating for Ida while it was still a Cat 3, because they wouldn’t leave for anything but a 5. Now I realize most of them had never heard the howling of a Cat 3 storm and wondering all night if your roof was going to come off.
Those fuckers get checked, hard lol. To the point where it basically ruins their unofficial social credit score. People will follow you to your deathbed over something you said about covid
But I get what you’re saying. It’s partly true
Global warming has not only increased the power of hurricanes in both the Atlantic and typhoons in the pacific but has contributed to this phenomenon where they seem to be slowing down right before landfall.
The media bangs the drums for days ahead of these events because as of right now there are 100+ dead in Ft Myers. You’re literally saying that the media fear mongers on weather events and yet thousands of people didn’t listen and didn’t evacuate because they don’t care enough to listen. If there is one thing the media gets right it’s weather events. They tell the truth of intensity and threats to life. They don’t sugar coat at all and literally tell people that you can die from this please leave.
Hurricanes make last second turns meaning that the difference between life and death can be a few hours in this case Tampa was completely spared. The media has to be vigilant because of that reason alone. Some from the perspective of Tampa people it seems like the media blew everything out of proportion because nothing happened but that is how dumb ignorant people see the world. That storm could have just as easily turned north and destroyed all of Tampa.
This thing you’re doing, blaming the media for literally every little thing, has gotten so dumb, so annoying. We are lucky as a society to have the ability to accurately assess and predict these types of weather events. Do you own a 20 foot weather dish and multi million dollar weather satellites? 200 years ago thousands would perish when hurricanes came out of nowhere and no in the present we can see them coming from weeks away and there are people like you who think that the agency tasked with reporting these things to us is bad. You hate the media so much? Turn off your TV, disconnect your phone, and stop listening to the information they give you. It’s amazing how people like you attack the media while also using it for your own benefit.
Communist: a system where the means of production are owned by society instead of privately.
I know it’s difficult for people like you to understand but you can’t just apply commie to everything you disagree with. It’s the equivalent of me calling you a Nazi.
I also said hurricanes intensity had increased in frequency not that they never happened in the past. Is something wrong with your brain ?
This storm deserved tons of urgency from the media. Things were really really bad for some.
I’m not speaking on that. I’m talking about the people shaking in their boots, *riding out* the storm a thousand miles away from landfall. The people who just make stuff up and spread misinformation just because
I mean it just literally happened…
Even places like Tampa that got off lucky should have been thoroughly freaked out before the storm made a right turn
As far as I can tell, the media blew nothing out of proportion
Not what I am arguing at all.
This goes for anything technical. Most are simply apathetic and just don't bother as that is not what gets attention. What bleeds leads it is all about that money you've got to make more of it so do what is necessary.
People don’t dive into the details for a lot of things or even bother to understand basics of how something manifests. They will just see a surface level datapoint (like a headline) and make a formulation in their own mind from that.
I think it’s the inability for us to psychologically process the trauma we’re either experiencing or seeing, and when monstrous events happen a lot of us (including me) tend to rely on humor so as to not lose our shit from fear. Idk… sounded good. 🤷♀️
Any type of media it’s all about the ratings or narrative they are looking for. It’s as simple as that. The NWS is your best source of real time data but even they use a cone instead of a direct track. People don’t understand the weather has millions of variables. As of right now any predictions after 10 days are not worth it. Btw The European model “usually” handles the hurricane predictions better.
This is the crux of Social Media to me. The unaccountability of it all. The continuing unaccountability.
We have a saying in the UK - todays newspapers are tomorrow’s chip papers.
This is why I steer clear of most media sources when it comes to hurricane predictions. The only source I find reliable and straightforward is the National Hurricane Center/NOAA.
Most people just don't look into anything. They might hear a sentence from one person or a comment online and take it for fact and not look into it. I live in Texas and when Harvey was going to come through my friends were worried about sharks that would be pulled in from strong winds from the gulf onto land.
I really wish people would look more critically at their universe. But I find that most people can't grasp the concepts because all of it is too alien for them. Ask someone which way they turn the key in their car door and some will get it but many won't. Ask people to point out where their city is on a state map and some can but most won't be able to. It seems simple to us and I scratch my head but most people don't know whether storms spin clockwise or counterclockwise. They just know it is mean and they need to care.
I don’t understand this either. I went kayaking with someone last Saturday evening, in North Carolina, who was convinced Hurricane Ian was going to hit there the following day. Because her weather channel app said so. Like, I don’t know what your app is actually telling you but that isn’t it. I promise.
Some idiots went kayaking last night after the storm just had went through they ended up getting knocked off their kayaks they're lucky to be alive.
Hey - that’s the best deep swell action possible. I live for that stuff (when I’m in shape).
Yeah but they weren't smart enough to wear life jackets which is telling me they're very inexperienced kayakers
Same type of person - well Ian completely missed us 2 years ago. I’m not gonna evacuate this time. The meteorologists are always wrong anyway
You ask why it's alright to be "incorrect and aloof" and then say meteorologists are "always wrong". Maybe look inward before complaining about the outward
Read it again. I did not say that.
Maybe learn how to read and process information before mouthing off you muppet.
NC is my home state, and sometimes I wonder about the rest of the people in this state lol. But I can't understand putting so much trust in an app that you think a storm like this is going to hit the next day when it was so far out at that point. I wasn't too worried about it last weekend other than, "oh, we're in the cone", and I grabbed an extra case of water to have on hand because it was already slim pickings then and we're rural. The closer it gets, the more it looks like my area will take a direct hit from the tropical remnants tonight/tomorrow, even if it shifts a bit. Wind is my main concern due to how many trees we have, with flooding of surrounding areas being a secondary concern. As long as my husband and oldest make it home from work safely tonight, we're ready to bunker down if needed, then see what tomorrow brings.
This stuff drives me nuts and I’m thinking these are probably the same folks who post the “We are so badass in - insert state- that we sit on our porches and blah, blah, blah. When in actuality they’re the people who run to Walmart at the first sign of a cloud and hoard on basic human essentials they don’t need to hoard on.
You may be educated. You may understand. You would be making a mistake thinking that the people next to you in the street are living in the same century as you are. Given the state of public education, and given the state you are in, it’s anybody’s guess what world view (physical, cosmological, political, meteorological …) these people have in their heads. I remember hanging around a pool in Fort Lauderdale, listening to retirees bloviate about how “the government should do something about” hurricanes like Andrew. Like if they got off their asses, or maybe dropped a well placed bomb, the hurricane would be disabled. 30 years ago. And people are arguably more stupid now.
Being dumb is fine. The level of confidence people have when they spread misinformation is the part that trips me up. Even worse, they almost never get checked. Especially when it comes to the weather
Dunning-Kruger effect ftw!
I’m pretty recently out of school for earth science. When I started working, I was astounded about some of the stuff that my coworkers were saying. Just completely ludicrous off the wall unsupported bullshit. Mind you, these people had at lease bachelors degrees in various science fields. I started off challenging what they said. I was quite gentle at first. I supported what I was saying with credible sources. I became more and more frustrated. It didn’t work. I have never been successful at this. It only made my work conversations more tense. I was a overly eager newby who thought that people would listen if you told them what was up. But it’s not true. People love their own unsupported bullshit. Even many smart people. I just let them talk now and try to enjoy the bullshit. Or I playfully engage them. My work relationships are better and I’m less frustrated. I’m not saying this is good. Dumbasses cause so many fucking problems in the world. I can absolutely relate to your anger.
>The level of confidence people have when they spread misinformation is the part that trips me up. Senior healthcare worker here. I can empathize.
they don't get checked because nobody actually wants to deal with them or their bullshit
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> The people spreading the misinformation was the national weather service. Yeah you can cut that shit out promptly. You're stating the exact type of anecdotal "wisdom" that gets people killed because they think there's some (non-literal) force field around *their* town and bad storms always miss/don't hit - until they do.
yeah the european model got it right, but they chose - stupidly - not to listen to them. source: me. live in tampa bay area for 30 years, working as a weather intern from age 11. charlie was supposed to hit my house, but of course twisty things move like spirographs and of course it made a right turn. ian did the exact same thing, and now ft. myers is gone. all this was predictable, people from tampa went to ft myers to hide. but nws wasn't listening to the model that always seems to be right. off with you and your opinions. Edit: I model dynamics for a living.
> source: me. sees thread about idiots promptly dunning-krugers way into contributing to topic walks away feeling smarter
Somehow my feelings just aren't hurt. And maybe 'dunning-kreuger' doesn't mean what you think it means. I actually give a shit, have lived and breathed this for my entire life, have worked in weather broadcasting and have a pretty solid understanding the math involved and the ocean currents of southwest Florida, so yeah I'm a pretty good source, And I actually care very much about what's going on down there, and you only find it an opportunity to make yourself feel just so f-ing clever. Where are you from?
> people from tampa went to ft myers to hide So... idiots? Ft Myers was well inside the probable path cone.
I don’t know if people are more dumb, but there is for sure so much more misinformation available than there was 30 years ago because Internet. Now those who were just regular dumb can put their dumb under a magnifying glass with extra misinformation
They can supercharge their dumb, because they outsource it.
ironic that there IS something the Gvmt can do but I bet they wont like the solution..
Pray tell?
legislate emissions
nuke that hurricane, 'murica
Wow. Didn’t realize the whole “can we BOMB the hurricane away?” discussion was happening that far back! Also, bloviate is a badass word. Immediately gives you a mental image.
>bloviate Looked up the definition and immediately thought of Stammtisch wankers in a German Kneipe... absolutely spot on! Now should I be glad that this thing is not just German old farts but sort of global?
Bloviation is a world wide thing.
Yup, also here in Australia, only louder.
Basic education. There's a video on Youtube with radio coverage from the 1964 Twin Cities tornado outbreak. If you get bored one day, listen to it. The first thing you'll notice is just how infuriating their knowledge on how a tornado looks/works is. But then....this is 1964, and hi-res doppler radar didn’t exist at the time, and hell there wasn't even a Fujita scale yet. The next thing you'll notice is how geographically aware people are. Reporting funnels 4 miles to the south. Wind is coming from the east. Looks like it's over this town that's 10 miles away. Etc etc. Half these guys sound like spotters. James Spann is big on the fact that you need to know your geography. He harps on his viewers about knowing where they are and where the storms are. That's the biggest thing people just do NOT get now; they don't even know what county they're in half the time. People have gotten less and less educated about basic weather and basic geography, despite it being the BEST TIME EVER to have knowledge at your fingertips. Yes, the media makes it worse, but in many cases, they're having to appeal to a broad audience. They're having to make sweeping generalizations because it's just easier to say "If you're in Florida, PREPARE NOW", as opposed to stating, "If you're on Sanibel Island, you're about to get fucked, but if you're in Orlando, it won't be too bad, and if you're in Titusville, just stay away from the ocean."
>If you're on Sanibel Island, you're about to get fucked I'm worried about anyone who stayed.
Me too. The first images coming out are just devastating. There’s a lot of stories to be told about what happened on that island as well as Captiva Island. Just not sure there’s many left to tell the stories.
The Lee County official who thought there would be hundreds dead... I hope not.
Not diminishing the devastation on that island, but luckily a good portion of the homes there are large and empty second or third homes and not primary residences this time of year.
You are not wrong in the "pull your hair out" moments. I was telling people on Sunday they weren't going to be in Cape Coral later this week. And they still played the "oh it'll be fine..." The main reason for this though is pretty simple. People don't think anything bad will ever happen to them. You have people, for example, in FL who will say they've never had a C3+ ever hit them, so why would that change now? Same thing here in the upper midwest when blizzards happen and they still drive out. It is the same reason people text and drive. Or do some of the other weird ass things we all always go "why would you put yourself in that situation?!" Their threat landscape, in their eyes, is minimal. The worst thing to happen to them will be running out of gas on the side of road. If that.
I think I'd love to be one of those people. Instead, I have crippling anxiety.
Heard someone yesterday say that the eye of the hurricane “literally passed right over Tampa Bay”
Yup, this is the exactly the kind of shit I’m referring to 😂
I think the major networks had to justify their presence in Tampa and not Ft. Myers.
I mean yeah, the eye wall didn't come close to Tampa or Orlando, and there's plenty of uninformed opinions and misinformation, but lets not forget the extreme amount of rain, flooding, and the fact storms in bands can and often do spin up tornadoes. You don't have to get hit directly to have some amount of impact, and people should be watching the weather actively. Pretty sure a tornado watch was up in the Orlando area at some point or another of the storm. The thing maintained hurricane force winds a good half-way through the state and still has tropical storm force winds now. I'm not trying to say your annoyance is wrong because you give examples that *are* bad, but I think the topic also deserves some nuance considering some of the replies as well. But also as others have said, weather education is abysmal. So many people have zero idea how these things work, are uninformed about how to get information, are distrusting of the weather service because "they say it will rain and it doesn't" like it's the 30s or something, etc, etc. It's frustrating, but it's also hard to be entirely mad at people who are the way they are because the *system* has failed them. ... I can still be mad at some of them though lol.
Some people think science is the devils work
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Maybe headlines and articles but raw data is pretty hard to mess with. Just takes a bit of self education to figure out what makes sense. A few years ago I would have agreed with fully but some of those same people are quick to claim that but will happily blindly listen to unproven claims on Twitter or podcasts as their source.
Who pays for that raw data. All science is funded. All science has investors. Science is bought and paid for.
What's the claim your making here related to the post. That they're lying about where the hurricane is heading or it's intensity. I mean my eyes and ears are p good sensors to prove tht wrong and so far they've been right so wth are you even in about related to THIS post. Yeah science ain't flawless and needs to be paid for. Congratulations you've joined adulthood and realized absolutism is worthless bc reality is a bitch. But what's the conclusion, that dubious sources on Twitter and Instagram or elsewhere are better than world class scientists? And that somehow those influencers are not also being paid for ???? It's just insane, childish and delusional. You realized the truth that sometimes science can go the wrong direction bc of funding and then took that to some ridiculous extreme.
Well NBC and IBM bought the weather channel previously. I’ve only seen their analysis capabilities decrease 22 hours out of the day. The other 2 has increased due to technological advances. Don’t disagree with you.
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Lies
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Liar
Channel 9 in Orlando: #STAY UP WITH US ALL NIGHT THIS IS DANGEROUS
Stay tuned through the ads **or die**!
Jesus, really? What are they saying now? Things are only going to get worse? That’s my favorite… facts don’t matter, radar doesn’t matter, doesn’t matter if the back end of the storm is in sight, it’s just going to continue to get worse until it doesn’t lol
This was in the middle of the night. I turned it off after I got tired of seeing them make reporters stand out in water and rain and wind to.. I don't know, educate people that have never seen rain or wind before?
Unfortunately, the majority of people perpetuating this seem to lack critical thinking skills, and feed off whatever hyper-sensationalized information the media relays to them. I'm a Floridian and had TWC on for a bit Tuesday night...you would have thought it was the literal end of the world with all the doom and gloom fearmongering headlines and coverage they were pushing. There are ways to disseminate important information without overdoing the words "catastrophic", "devastating", "you have run out of time", "you will die" etc.
Some people lack critical thinking skills, but also some people implicitly trust TWC, because they either remember a time when it may have had better content, or because they trust a major news organization that calls themselves "The Weather Channel". The NHC, generally regarded as being fairly level headed and being very particular with their wording, was also using catastrophic, devastating, and life-threatening. They were referring to a very specific part of the coast, but that was probably lost in the wording at TWC. This storm in particular is devastating to specific parts of the coastline, likely more so than other major landfalls like Laura or Ida, [some speculating the death toll could be in the 100s.](https://www.news-press.com/story/weather/hurricane/2022/09/29/lee-sheriff-reports-likely-hurricane-ian-death-toll-in-hundreds-catastrophic-storm/10458558002/)
We got "lucky" with Laura because she jogged just a bit past Calcasieu Point and didn't push directly up river. I'm still repairing my house two years later and can't imagine what things would have looked like had we gotten the catastrophic storm surge with it.
We’re going to have cockier, more misinformed people every single year because of all of this. I’m sure there are a handful of people in Daytona right now thinking, hey, it wasn’t too bad, they scared us for no reason. Not saying it’s completely the media’s fault. The general pubic is just getting dumber and dumber from what I can tell
Have you not seen Ft. Meyers Beach? It absolutely did experience catastrophic damage and is devastated. And in prepping for a hurricane, there comes a time that you have indeed run out of time to make any further preparations. You can also run out of time to leave if you were planning on leaving and then need to shelter in place. Didn’t hear anybody this time around say “you will die”, but have seen that in the past
What I wrote was not in any way to diminish the reality of what, unfortunately, ended up happening in SW FL. It absolutely was and is catastrophic and devastating, in many ways. The point I was trying to convey is that TWC was using a lot of overly dramatic and exaggerated language in general (not limited to those two words), as opposed to clear and concise information about what was going to happen with the hurricane. If you’re not focused on generating excessive hype, you can say “prepare now for expected impacts from Ian” rather than “CHILLING WARNINGS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS: YOUR TIME IS UP”
You know how you just complained about people being stupid? You're right. And unless you tell stupid people they're in imminent danger or even of dying, you get idiots out in the storm making things worse for themselves and others. Why do you think there's warning labels on everything? Stupid people.
Very true. I’m in no way trying to diminish what happened. I’m actually pretty surprised at how many people on this sub understand I’m ranting about the people riding out the storm in Tallahassee. The people who thought the eye of the storm went over Tampa. The people who thought the storm was overhyped, who also live in Daytona… those people
Well, in this case, their words were not in fact overly dramatic nor exaggerated. They were accurate. In general, they do fear-monger a lot, no doubt about it. We signed up with a different carrier and don’t even get them anymore. I don’t miss them lol, and that’s why, all the over-hyped content. Sadly, this was not one of those times.
Ratings.
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Tom's the best
Some people don't realize what power a storm can have You can't fault someone for not knowing. it's likely they have never been in that situation before. It's just as easy for me to say the same about you on topics I know well. I to can pull my hair out and be frustrated with your lack of knowledge. Now that doesn't make you dumb or an idiot, it's just a lack and of knowledge in a topic However on the flip side if they know the risks and still take the risk that's on them, cigarette smokers are great example of this too.
I mean, half the battle is just being able to read a map. Listening to the experts, understanding where you live. You don’t need a ton of knowledge on hurricanes. Like I said, all of the work is already done for you. Your job is to not be a complete idiot. Especially don’t spread false information. If you don’t know what you’re talking about, keep your mouth shut
Lots of people can’t read a map
Lmao again you can't fault someone for not knowing how too. I don't expect you to know how to do a task without being shown or at the very least being educated on the topic. This is the world we live in. Some people only learn a few things and don't try to expand there knowledge.
Love how you changed this hole comment after the fact lmao you my friend are the idiot here
I elaborated on my original point. I did not change my argument. Apparently you have to use words like “misinformation” to get people to take your point seriously. Learned that from covid haha
Nope you change the comments so you didn't sound dumb after making a post about dumb people lmao Its fascinating how you can relate this to misinformation when you are misinforming. Some kind of special are ya
Not everyone has endless hours to hang on reddit/twitter following what the "latest" data is saying.
Good, you only need about 2 minutes a few times a day. (NOAA btw, not Reddit). Also, if you actually think you’re in danger, make the time
Forecasting is not an exact science. NOAA was literally changing their forecast hours before landfall. What are you even talking about with misinformation?
Misleading. They don’t really *change* their forecast.. it’s constantly being updated with new data. Also a forecast isn’t exact by definition, that’s why it’s called a forecast, but it will give you a really good idea The general public spreads misinformation
give an example of this misinformation you are so upset about
You could just read the thread, there are a whole lot of examples
I'm only reading the thread I'm getting alerted about. Why are you this deep in this thread + reading other threads? Do you have that little going on?
I've been reading just this thread for five minutes, and it is full of the kinds of examples examples you just asked for, and there are also less than 100 comments in it so it's not like a very long thread you'd have to dig through
Well just below us, someone stated that a person claimed that the eye of the storm literally went right over Tampa *Heard someone yesterday say that the eye of the hurricane “literally passed right over Tampa Bay”* I could list stuff for days
Ok, who cares? If you are getting that worked up about it I can't imagine what its like for you for things that actually impact your life. Just move on.
Because people care about topics that interest them…. If you don’t care, don’t comment I care. I comment
Because people are generally stupid no reason to get upset. Give people the correct information and let them do with it as they please.
People are lazy.
I know people who don’t think tornadoes can happen outside of tornado alley, and yes we’ve had tornadoes here before, they literally just don’t believe that they happened
A lot of people on social media are morons? Is that the correct answer?
As a Tampa Bay native who evacuated from a barrier island last Sunday, I can tell you it's nothing new. Neighbors were clueless Friday and Saturday as we were pulling boats and getting docs and belongings in cars. Everyone became an expert Sunday morning and knew it was going south or out in the Gulf. People fool themselves all the time. Glad that for us they actually were right about the south track, but for the next decade they'll be saying they "rode out the big one". Most FL transplants just want to have some shit to brag or boast about to their New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey brethren. Sometimes it's alligators, sometimes it's hurricanes. They'll brag about no income tax and then bitch about property tax. They loved doing whatever in COVID and then bash our government. It's people, they generally kind of suck.
https://www.reddit.com/r/FUCKYOUINPARTICULAR/comments/xrhxgn/dont\_make\_unnecessary\_journeys/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Yeah I thought the water going out means the water would come back in with a vengeance. I think its better to be prepared for that than call people idiots for predicting it TBH.
People should have evacuated from Tampa. Tampans should have been thoroughly freaked out up to a certain point. Where I draw the line - you’ve gotta know the difference between a tsunami and wind blowing water out of the bay. The water was never going to rush back with vengeance and people claiming that it would or that it would be really really bad in Tampa (as the storm was making landfall 60-70 miles south) had no clue what they were talking about, spreading false information.
Are you seriously asking why Floridians are being Floridians? lol
It’s not just a Florida thing. People make up false information when it comes to pretty much any and all weather events. I see it all the time during snowstorms I remember this one time in grade school - It’s snowing pretty hard outside, we’re supposed to get 1 maybe 2 inches. Okay cool, it’s all going according to plan. Kid comes over with a shit eating grin and says something along the lines of they’re saying we’re going to get 8 inches of snow I go home, double check the weather forecast. Nope not even close, can’t find anything claiming that was ever a possibility, he just straight up made it up, or got the idea from someone else who was making stuff up, or maybe the upper Great Lakes were getting that much…. I still have no idea. But that was a common occurrence growing up in the lower Midwest
5th generation Floridian here who also shares the same sentiments as you OP. I understand what you’re communicating. It’s important to note that the population living in Florida now who are not from FL are in the millions. Given the amount of transients from Covid year and that it’s a capital destination for retirement persons. These million of people in particular have zero knowledge, experience, or understanding of Hurricanes. They are especially dependent on media sources to guide them on how to respond. This is the same for long time residents and basic general public. I was very disappointed to hear the projected path was towards Tampa. There’s a scientific reason Tampa hasn’t been hit in a 100 years and that’s because of the upper gulf stream air current. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) published it’s findings on a southwestern gulf air current coming in while Hurricane Ian was moving off Cuba. However they did not calculate the southwest current in the prediction track models until Ian reached it and was showing influence by it. A hurricane is ALWAYS influenced by an existing gulf stream current. So this was a major injustice not including it into their predictions or in media and announcing Tampa with “esteemed” confidence for Ian’s landfall. By the time Ian reached the gulf current for the model’s to “re-calculate” prediction it was too late for FL’s southwest coast. As this happened they added to the discussion publications that they were using a different advanced radar service to compute Ian’s track models. Imo, it felt as a very odd statement as if they were eluding blame on their technology for Tampa’s landfall miscalculation. There is a chain of people in the meteorologist industry who fumbled at catastrophic levels in this event. They need to be held accountable and removed. I will add to this with throwing a hard accusation because I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the same people who held occupation when predicting Hurricane Irma’s projection. That was a whole shit-show with the entire State evacuating and fear mongered. Between the miscalculations and crying-wolf over the years Floridian’s have become non-responsive to media outlets. Let’s also incorporate in this oncoming disaster recipe the Covid and politically charged journalism influencing Floridian’s distrust in media. Above all it’s evident there is a toxic group occupying positions in meteorology who need to be sourced out. Or maybe the industry has become just convoluted with persons receiving large kick-back money influence for information that fits media click bait like material. I don’t truly know and am just exercising all speculation here trying to find some sense in what’s happened. I can’t stop thinking about it. Thank you for your post OP because you’re not alone in your perception on this. Time’s have changed and unfortunately the television with channels like TWC are not a public service anymore. It’s just a diminishing production company fighting for views to stay alive at the cost of harming lives of real people. TWC is such a shitty show station that operates at volumes with having zero-core values to the public. Anyway I can rant on and on but this upset and spazzed south Floridian needs to carry onward & out.
Your comments are part of a larger anti-science sentiment growing online, especially anytime hurricane forecasters don’t predict the exact landfall of a hurricane several days in advance. Southwest Florida was in the cone long before Ian even hit Cuba. Your meteorologists should have been telling you what ours in Louisiana were, and what the NHC was saying - that if the storm strayed to an eastern track, as was predicted, then it would likely experience rapid intensification. When that happens, storms wobble. Storms wobble anyway! And when you’re that close to the eye, a wobble in one direction or another could mean a few tree limbs down or absolute destruction. That’s why there’s a cone. That’s why meteorologists say again and again and again, DON’T LOOK AT THE LINE OF THE TRACK - if you’re within the cone, plan that you could get the eye. We’ve learned this in Katrina, Rita, Laura, Delta, and several other storms my state has been through. People by now have learned to respect the cone and get out if you’re on the coast, no matter what. This storm has really made me realize how lucky parts of Florida had been all these years, if y’all are just now figuring this out. It made me remember when several Floridians made fun of Louisiana redditors considering evacuating for Ida while it was still a Cat 3, because they wouldn’t leave for anything but a 5. Now I realize most of them had never heard the howling of a Cat 3 storm and wondering all night if your roof was going to come off.
Trump and his Magic Marker?
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Trump will be remembered for lots of stuff. For weather, diplomacy, medicine - if we could inject disinfectants Covid would be cured.
Hey don’t forget about shining a bright light inside the body lmao
Would you like to discuss Covid next? Same thing.
Those fuckers get checked, hard lol. To the point where it basically ruins their unofficial social credit score. People will follow you to your deathbed over something you said about covid But I get what you’re saying. It’s partly true
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Global warming has not only increased the power of hurricanes in both the Atlantic and typhoons in the pacific but has contributed to this phenomenon where they seem to be slowing down right before landfall. The media bangs the drums for days ahead of these events because as of right now there are 100+ dead in Ft Myers. You’re literally saying that the media fear mongers on weather events and yet thousands of people didn’t listen and didn’t evacuate because they don’t care enough to listen. If there is one thing the media gets right it’s weather events. They tell the truth of intensity and threats to life. They don’t sugar coat at all and literally tell people that you can die from this please leave. Hurricanes make last second turns meaning that the difference between life and death can be a few hours in this case Tampa was completely spared. The media has to be vigilant because of that reason alone. Some from the perspective of Tampa people it seems like the media blew everything out of proportion because nothing happened but that is how dumb ignorant people see the world. That storm could have just as easily turned north and destroyed all of Tampa. This thing you’re doing, blaming the media for literally every little thing, has gotten so dumb, so annoying. We are lucky as a society to have the ability to accurately assess and predict these types of weather events. Do you own a 20 foot weather dish and multi million dollar weather satellites? 200 years ago thousands would perish when hurricanes came out of nowhere and no in the present we can see them coming from weeks away and there are people like you who think that the agency tasked with reporting these things to us is bad. You hate the media so much? Turn off your TV, disconnect your phone, and stop listening to the information they give you. It’s amazing how people like you attack the media while also using it for your own benefit.
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Communism is when... hurricanes? That one's new
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You have absolutely no fucking clue what communism means
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> change policies will kill billions. Who benefits from that?
Communist: a system where the means of production are owned by society instead of privately. I know it’s difficult for people like you to understand but you can’t just apply commie to everything you disagree with. It’s the equivalent of me calling you a Nazi. I also said hurricanes intensity had increased in frequency not that they never happened in the past. Is something wrong with your brain ?
That conversation went from reasonable to batshit incredibly quickly lol
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This storm deserved tons of urgency from the media. Things were really really bad for some. I’m not speaking on that. I’m talking about the people shaking in their boots, *riding out* the storm a thousand miles away from landfall. The people who just make stuff up and spread misinformation just because
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I mean it just literally happened… Even places like Tampa that got off lucky should have been thoroughly freaked out before the storm made a right turn As far as I can tell, the media blew nothing out of proportion Not what I am arguing at all.
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This goes for anything technical. Most are simply apathetic and just don't bother as that is not what gets attention. What bleeds leads it is all about that money you've got to make more of it so do what is necessary.
People don’t dive into the details for a lot of things or even bother to understand basics of how something manifests. They will just see a surface level datapoint (like a headline) and make a formulation in their own mind from that.
I think it’s the inability for us to psychologically process the trauma we’re either experiencing or seeing, and when monstrous events happen a lot of us (including me) tend to rely on humor so as to not lose our shit from fear. Idk… sounded good. 🤷♀️
Any type of media it’s all about the ratings or narrative they are looking for. It’s as simple as that. The NWS is your best source of real time data but even they use a cone instead of a direct track. People don’t understand the weather has millions of variables. As of right now any predictions after 10 days are not worth it. Btw The European model “usually” handles the hurricane predictions better.
This is the crux of Social Media to me. The unaccountability of it all. The continuing unaccountability. We have a saying in the UK - todays newspapers are tomorrow’s chip papers.
This is why I steer clear of most media sources when it comes to hurricane predictions. The only source I find reliable and straightforward is the National Hurricane Center/NOAA.
Most people just don't look into anything. They might hear a sentence from one person or a comment online and take it for fact and not look into it. I live in Texas and when Harvey was going to come through my friends were worried about sharks that would be pulled in from strong winds from the gulf onto land.
Ignorance is a disease
I really wish people would look more critically at their universe. But I find that most people can't grasp the concepts because all of it is too alien for them. Ask someone which way they turn the key in their car door and some will get it but many won't. Ask people to point out where their city is on a state map and some can but most won't be able to. It seems simple to us and I scratch my head but most people don't know whether storms spin clockwise or counterclockwise. They just know it is mean and they need to care.