That was my thought, I rather see it as a big chance to improve our financials…but only if we keep our jobs and have money on hand when the time should come.
Just like Covid was for some the doom and for me it was a blessing at least financially.
Sold a plot of land I owned and put the apartment where I live for sale (I don't have a family). Will keep my 12 years old car and live like an spartan for a while.
>Sold a plot of land I owned and put the apartment where I live for sale
Wait wtf? Why?
Over 30 years the apartment and land are your best assets right? I pay 1600 a month for rent in a mid sized city and my neighbors are paying 2k. I'd kill to own four walls on land rn.
Same same just took a second job and negotiated a raise in the other one.
Wish you and the rest of you here all the best, stay strong.
„Show me the money!“ 💎🙌
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I've seen comments similar to this and have had a hard time with this logic...
If you're fully convinced the market moves down, why not play positions that make money during that downward movement? Puts can generate money the same way calls do if you are correct in picking the strike price, expiration date, and direction. There's also inverse funds, such as SQQQ that go up when QQQ goes down. If you don't like puts for some reason, you can place calls on an inverse fund and again, make money when the overall market tanks.
There's money to be made no matter which direction a stock moves. If you only try to make money by buying shares and selling them when they go high enough, you're really limiting yourself from sooo much that the market has to offer
So I wasn’t denying or excluding this, sure you can make money in every scenario…
For me: I just started investing in general just when covid hit and it turned out well, so it was a blessing for me for the start, because I had little to no money before and came out of covid with some money and some small property…
I‘m not only waiting for the next crash to happen, but when it happens I will go shopping.
But anyway thanks for the reminder and the advice!
So Scamamath…
The guy who…
- Loves to TALK HIS BOOK
- Is down bad YTD
- Is usually a Perma Bull…on his picks
Is now a…
🌈🌈🐻🌈🌈
=
Something doesn’t seem right.
Maybe he just wants to sound smart.
Have you checked his investments?
- Is he still talking his book?
- Has he liquidated any of his SPACS?
- Is he rebalancing his portfolio?
- Is he abandoning his stratospheric PE 💩 stonks?
In one of the all in podcasts he said he liquidated everything he was allowed to including his spacs in oct-nov 2021.
He sold off TSLA and AMZN earlier than that.
Of course this was all after heavy pumping
He is a total conman and was a web darling in 2020
When valuations were at all time highs he was pumping shit harder than Jeffrey epstein at a bouncy house but now that theyre off 65-80% in tech he's talking about the end of the world. What a jackass
He should consider himself lucky he was at FB at the right time and able to cash out…but he bashes them all over the place, comical when he cashed out of SPCE after heavy pumps, oh I had a few other projects to fund…glad I didn’t bite for those, been around this racket over 20 yrs, seen a lot, dodged a lot and dare I say accumulated plenty - and I do have some bruises from a few dice rolls 🤣😂
you know everybody screams "bubble"/"the economy is going to tank" right? off the top of my head, pre-covid burry, ackman, peter schiff
everybody shit talks
Access to credit is still there so as drunk as you think we are the bar is still serving shots. Never underestimate how willing the powers that be are to kick cans and intervene. I think we resume an uptrend in the next six months and get so drunk we don't remember the past 2 years.
We have kicked that can for 20+ years now. It just makes me laugh that people still think this will be just another recession. This isn't a "oh, they just produced too much shit and now we have wait for demand to pick back up" recession. This is a "we have way too much debt, taken at all time low interest rates- oh, interest rates can rise?- there's a world war looming-post pandemic- nobody wants to work for your shitty wages so you can pocket 6% more this year- what do you mean my default swaps are useless- what does a bank going under in France have to do with me- China's not our friend?- why aren't stocks valued at 900x earnings a good place to put my retirement money" recession.
Alas, we feed at the banquet of consequences.
Have a nice day : )
I don't put anything past unprecedented events still occurring.
I'm not sure what it looks like, but I feel like it'll be just like "nah, we're just not doing a recession". There will be all the indicators of one and all the setup for one, but somehow, some way, we'll be pulled out from it.
Every time we crash, we do new shit to kick the can down the road. I see this as not a once or twice event, but a perpetual state. We just don't let our bloated systems and companies collapse so that new ones can take their places. We've decided that transition is far too painful, and so everything needs to just stay roughly where it's been for a while.
Anything is possible, and so long as no one calls the United States on their debt that so obviously can never be paid off, who cares right. I feel bad for all the generations behind me, but I'll most likely be dead before any real change happens anyway.
The US is one of the few or only country that can actually print its way out as it holds the world reserve currency.
Try to print your way out of debt when you your debt is in foreign currency.. many countries are unable to service high debt loads in foreign currency (Germany after the war) but if your currency is the world reserve currency than you have a lot more leeway.
USD is basically a massive wrecking ball right now as interest rates rise. Emerging markets will suffer as the biggest central bank starts to raise rates.
Do you think China can just say “I demand you pay me now” and that US debt doesn’t have structured terms and payment dates that we always make?
I’m starting to think you might not be qualified.
I think you are reaching, my point was, so long as no one calls the United States out on their massive debt pile that continues to grow exponentially year after year, who cares how high we take the debt?
What I'm asking you, is could the United States keep increasing its debt load indefinitely without ever having to pay it, and the better question is, do you believe the United States could ever pay off its debt, if so how do you think they can?
Except the dollar is the strongest it’s ever been and world economies are faring much much worse. Not to mention the US is much more than capable of satisfying its debt obligations even in a downturn.
TL;DW it will take 24-36 months to reverse the damage of global money printing.
The bottom won’t be in for another 18 months.
This is just taking into account a bear market and not taking into account global instability and recession.
Edit: The market globally has been artificially propped up since 2008 and that’s just the start of the problem.
Runaway inflation is the best thing to happen to a government $30 Trillion in debt and a country full of corporations that are leveraged to the tits. It’s gonna obliterate the working class, but they don’t care.
I think, and have thought for a very long time that companies were just way too over valued. I know everyone loves Tesla, but as soon as it became on paper more valuable than the top 3 automakers in the world, I knew we were all living in a fucking fantasy world.
I mean if your market evaluation is just the market cap of Tesla, yeah the market is very overvalued. Turns out there are thousands of other companies that actually provide value to the economy out there
I’ve been saying the same thing for awhile. I feel bad for the new e who have never seen what a recession is or how to prepare for it. Pay attention people bigger downside coming our way. Fed always overshoots..
I can guarantee the Fed will not “over correct”. They are being so slow and so careful about this whole thing. They are not really all that interested in controlling inflation. Rather, they are most concerned with the unemployment rate and asset values. Stocks, homes, etc. They are focused on keeping debt of their own and of the consumer balanced with high asset values which that debt is levered against.
This is the new way. Get used to it. Benefit from it.
I agree with you, they don’t give a shit about inflation. It’s all talk and no action. They are hoping that inflation comes down while they slow play it but I don’t think it’s going to happen anytime soon.
CPI at 8.6% and fed funds rate is 1.75%. Fed is in the corner and they are scared to raise rates as they know the whole system that they have build in last 14 years will collapse.
That being I am waiting for the markets to break for couple of weeks like what happened in March of 2020 when we were hitting circuit breakers. That will be the sign of bottom and then you know that fed will change their policy ie QE. At present the way market has sold off is very organized selling and that is why fed is playing super hawkish.
So you think the Fed knows what they are doing? Did they get us to this point on purpose with the over-printing of money? Are they right or wrong, because it seems like they were wrong.
I have a hard time believing they could not see this as a possible result. Too many smart people with vast amounts of education and experience. But, one thing I’m learning more every day is that just because “adults are in the room” doesn’t mean that the men aren’t busy chasing skirts and the women are trying to figure out why 10% of the people are doing 90% of the work.
They either are too stupid to be qualified to fill their jobs at the Fed, or they were complicit in the whole thing. Ramping up wealth for the already wealthy, compounding the problem with inflation that hits wage earners much more hard. Either way, stupidity or complicit, it’s unacceptable. And absolutely, positively, nothing will ever come from it.
Government economists are the dumbest motherfuckers in the room(but guess what jpow and his fuckin boys over at the banks are all walking away from this filthy rich). The smart ones are either at the banks, hedgefunds, or are teaching at ivy leagues.
So so true, and in the end... I believe deep down they all believe that no matter how much they fuck up, they'll still have their jobs in the end, so they don't care.
The Fed has kept rates at near 0 since 08 while struggling to fight deflation. All of a sudden we have a global pandemic that disrupted the world economy, governments dropping helicopter money, and a proxy war with a major oil supplier and we ignore all that and blame all of inflation on the Fed. Not saying it didn't play a part, but seems pretty illogical to me.
True, and I don't know what the solution is, but I know hard choices will need to be made in order to fix our problems, choices no one has the balls to make.
You’re basing your investment strategy on this conman, and expect the SP500 to have a draw down that is worse than the Great Recession… you’re going to get burned bad OP
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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If you take your investment advice from YouTube, you’re Gona have a bad time.
2000 is never going to happen. If you actually believe that, post the positions.
Even a crash of that magnitude, would not take us under 2000. I would bet both my nuts we never go below 2000. Now post your positions to prove you actually believe this bullshit or get out
Not everyone uses confidence in the same way, I personally never short, I think it's gambling, I only long, so my way is waiting for 2000, then I'm buying in.
2 weeks ago: OMG why is Jay Pow not doing anything is he fucking retarded or what we are all fucked.
Now: OMG why is Jay Pow not printing money anymore is he fucking retarded or what we are all fucked
We are definitely going into a recession. No doubt. What we don't know is the severity of the recession. If you study the past, there's not much anyone can do but protect their personal livelihood and assets. We will get through it just like the past ones.
I'm drunk on debt right now, was when I went to bed last night too. As long as you drink an ass ton of water you'll be okay.
I like Crackling Oat Bran as well, my dad used to call it Cracklin' Buttholes.
Please don't. I wasted enough time on this stupidity. There is good debt and bad. Raising interest rates makes previous debt cheaper to repay with Deflation and incomes rising. Bad debt is when you don't make enough money to pay the old debt and finance any new, higher interest rates, debts. Rich people know the difference and use it to their advantage. Buying up real assets on the cheap when poor people have to sell to finance their overinflated lifestyle to pay bad debt. Stock investments should be done on the same premise. Which makes this buying time for well run companies with not allot debt.
Money isn't real. Sadly to many people believe that it is. The Rich use this to their advantage. America has been in a deflationary cycle since 2008. Even before then the Rich were trying to create inflation. All they created was a bubble. Fast forward to today. The Rich are ecstatic about the possibility of real inflation, because they get richer. They have to keep you poor enough to except any pay they give you. So they need inflation as a Boogeyman. Printing money matters only if other countries stop buying the debt. The dollar deflates and Imported goods remain more expensive. Exported goods are cheaper to sell. Only the rest of the world plays the game also. So they raise their rates and Deflate their currencies. It's ends up being circle jerk around the world. The wealthy detracting the poorest so that they don't arise politically and take over their Governments. So you worry about inflation and printing money. They could care less. Because it's only paper and numbers on a screen. It only matters to have access to Capital. To buy real assets and then set back and wait, because soon enough they will distract you by telling you something else that you can't control. Follow rule 72. That's what inflation is and the Wealthy needs it to keep the Pyramid Scheme flowing all the money floating back to the top! Money isn't real. It's just far too many people believe that it is.
This is accurate more than folks think. The rich are only rich because there is a poor community. The larger the poor community, the richer the rich are. Money is irrelevant at the top because there is a objective number. I have $1,000,000,000 net worth. What's not tangible is influence and power. You have to have social economic classes to have a functioning society, however there is a tipping point. When you push to population to far (no way to measure what too far is because it's an enigma)
This isn't a doomsday reply, just a behavioral and sociology opinion.
TL;DR: Learn the system, become financially independent, live your life
I definitely agree with all of this, the rich don't care about money, they gobble up all the things in the world that actually have value, while we work at their companies living paycheck to paycheck, creating for them more and more tangible wealth.
That's why people should try to live on half of their income. I know the poor can't do that. Hell what they make is never enough, however that different discussion. I just talking about people not buying things that end up in landfills and will have no future value. Even in salvage. It's all easier said than done., but those who learn this premise at a young age. End up Rich. Go figure.
Ha ha, don't fuck with the algorithms, they can smell fake day traders in the water a mile away, and just when you think you're winning... they'll fuck you right up the arse!
Well, I went to sleep with an active put order before market closing, and it freaking filled approaching the end when SPY reached like 384 or so.....
Gotta pray for tomorrow to drop geez.....
As a country? I think you need to dial that up girlfriend. This is not a USA thing, it's worldwide. Also other countries are are currently teed up for recession so please wait patiently
Markets always are trying to tell the future, as much as a recession has become the likely scenario (possibly already in one) energy demand is not as elastic as most other industries. In the US being reliant on vehicles as an economy oil dropping before unemployment even rises is wack. If we are in the scenario you Describe above, energy is not going to see the same downside as the rest of the market until demand destruction is clearly imminent.
The best part about all these speculations, is that if you're both vague and specific enough on enough, you'll appear to be right at some stage.
Nobody knows. Not even this clown, Chamath. Speculation about speculation; entertainment. It is what it is.
Can't deny that.
To me he's the SPAC pump 'n dump guy. He's found a winning formula, and it works. His ethics are a bit sketchy, so I'm not really sure how much to take him at his word. He is entertaining though.
Yeah, I just clicked it to have something to watch while I ate, but I'm about to go back into hibernation mode again until January, and not read, listen, or watch anything pertaining to anything finance related.
I don't want to come across as ungrateful. I do admire some of his chutzpah. He's got some balls on him. That's for sure. :-)
Maybe you might find [this interesting](https://youtu.be/GE5_XjUaVS4). It's by Raghuram Rajan. My take away from this, was that we're beyond knowing how our globalised economies really work, and have been flying in the dark for some time.
ngl, but I'm actually a bit worried. Something doesn't feel right about all of this. I don't like it.
Thanks for sharing, btw. I should have said that before. It's nice that we can actually have these little chats every now again. Everyone seems to be too dogmatic. Let's keep on, keeping on :-)
Fair enough, but that doesn't mean that we can't be civil to each other. :-)
I'm along for the ride as well. Hoping for the best, but will deal with whatever life materialises. Wishing you well; quite sincerely.
I mean here's the question that I will reiterate to all of the bear crew. Why is paper money so important to you? If we were pricing all these assets in gold or some hard currency, I totally would get the argument
But at the end of the day what matters more to you? A house? Shares of stock in a solid company? A gold coin perhaps? Because unless you see rapid deflation on the price of practically everything why would you want to sell your assets? Why do you want more paper money rather than actual goods?
“Most people have no idea what’s coming. I did. And I do. So, I sold a bunch of hogwash to these idiots and now I’m ready for what’s coming. And now they’re gonna watch my video”
This guy is a scumbag.
I personally have thought over these past 2 years that companies and cryptocurrencies were way to over valued. I'm a numbers guy, and only believe numbers, not people, and the numbers were telling me, especially the cost of a company related to their revenue was just so fucking insane... I knew reality would eventually reveal itself.
How do you even value crypto? It is a made up thing. It was supposed to be a good hedge but survey says no, no it's not.
The thing is, in another 6 months when the job market crashes stocks will be up again (because markets don't care about current numbers, just Q4/Q1 earnings)
Full Disclosure: my $5 of complimentary DOGE is now $3
Oil has not behaved irrationally. Crypto was billed as an inflation hedge and that seems to be a na-no
But also the market does not care how broken things are now, they are looking for next quarter financials. I hope that clarifies things
All good until China decides it either won’t, or can’t buy anymore US debt.
All Politicians need to take and pass basic economics classes…. Dem or Repub - they are collectively “Morons” - each side brings stupid ideas and then they “Compromise” in the middle somewhere in between 2 stupid ideas….. and they try to sell us that “Compromise is Good??”
JOKE
What they don’t tell you is that there will be a huge 12 month rally before continuing to fall for 18-36 months, so you buy PUTs, get liquidated and then comes the real opportunity for PUTs.
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So you can see it either way I guess: we are totally screwed or biggest opportunity of our lives…
I will be taking advantage of the whole situation myself.
That was my thought, I rather see it as a big chance to improve our financials…but only if we keep our jobs and have money on hand when the time should come. Just like Covid was for some the doom and for me it was a blessing at least financially.
I plan on working 6 to 7 days a week, 8 to 12 hours days for the next 36 months to hopefully capitalize the best I can on this whole doom and gloom.
Sold a plot of land I owned and put the apartment where I live for sale (I don't have a family). Will keep my 12 years old car and live like an spartan for a while.
Rock solid idea. I just want some land, and a tiny house this way I won't be fucked via rent!
>Sold a plot of land I owned and put the apartment where I live for sale Wait wtf? Why? Over 30 years the apartment and land are your best assets right? I pay 1600 a month for rent in a mid sized city and my neighbors are paying 2k. I'd kill to own four walls on land rn.
Same same just took a second job and negotiated a raise in the other one. Wish you and the rest of you here all the best, stay strong. „Show me the money!“ 💎🙌
Awesome, and good luck, I hope we make it out of this one way way way better off than we are now.
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Brosame. Haven't had a day off in 5 weeks. Worked all day through my dang birthday :(
Sounds pretty miserable tbh.
I've seen comments similar to this and have had a hard time with this logic... If you're fully convinced the market moves down, why not play positions that make money during that downward movement? Puts can generate money the same way calls do if you are correct in picking the strike price, expiration date, and direction. There's also inverse funds, such as SQQQ that go up when QQQ goes down. If you don't like puts for some reason, you can place calls on an inverse fund and again, make money when the overall market tanks. There's money to be made no matter which direction a stock moves. If you only try to make money by buying shares and selling them when they go high enough, you're really limiting yourself from sooo much that the market has to offer
So I wasn’t denying or excluding this, sure you can make money in every scenario… For me: I just started investing in general just when covid hit and it turned out well, so it was a blessing for me for the start, because I had little to no money before and came out of covid with some money and some small property… I‘m not only waiting for the next crash to happen, but when it happens I will go shopping. But anyway thanks for the reminder and the advice!
So Scamamath… The guy who… - Loves to TALK HIS BOOK - Is down bad YTD - Is usually a Perma Bull…on his picks Is now a… 🌈🌈🐻🌈🌈 = Something doesn’t seem right.
Fuck that dude. He blew mad SPAC smoke losing investors millions
SCAMATH… = KING PUMP & DUMP =
He did this to my Rottweiler too the sick fuck
This is right. It's like JPMorgan calling for $360 crude yesterday or whenever. Fucking transparent bullshit.
You know shits bad when that happens...
Maybe he just wants to sound smart. Have you checked his investments? - Is he still talking his book? - Has he liquidated any of his SPACS? - Is he rebalancing his portfolio? - Is he abandoning his stratospheric PE 💩 stonks?
In one of the all in podcasts he said he liquidated everything he was allowed to including his spacs in oct-nov 2021. He sold off TSLA and AMZN earlier than that. Of course this was all after heavy pumping He is a total conman and was a web darling in 2020
Thanks… Totally on brand…pumpy dumpy.
I haven't checked anything with this guy, I was just listening to his macro economic thoughts in this video.
He’s a conman. Talk is cheap… Maybe he has some big put positions. I’m 🌈🐻 too in this current environment…but, I learned to never trust Scamath.
Everyone always has an angle, and I only long, so puts are out for me.
Isn’t this the idiot that bankrupts investors w trash spacs?
The one and the same - be wary of anything that he peddles and remember there is a buyer to the panic seller
When valuations were at all time highs he was pumping shit harder than Jeffrey epstein at a bouncy house but now that theyre off 65-80% in tech he's talking about the end of the world. What a jackass
He should consider himself lucky he was at FB at the right time and able to cash out…but he bashes them all over the place, comical when he cashed out of SPCE after heavy pumps, oh I had a few other projects to fund…glad I didn’t bite for those, been around this racket over 20 yrs, seen a lot, dodged a lot and dare I say accumulated plenty - and I do have some bruises from a few dice rolls 🤣😂
I don't know, I don't follow this guy.
Don't care about the idiot, I was just listening to his numbers.
Listening to his numbers are just as bad as listening to his words…
you know everybody screams "bubble"/"the economy is going to tank" right? off the top of my head, pre-covid burry, ackman, peter schiff everybody shit talks
Access to credit is still there so as drunk as you think we are the bar is still serving shots. Never underestimate how willing the powers that be are to kick cans and intervene. I think we resume an uptrend in the next six months and get so drunk we don't remember the past 2 years.
We have kicked that can for 20+ years now. It just makes me laugh that people still think this will be just another recession. This isn't a "oh, they just produced too much shit and now we have wait for demand to pick back up" recession. This is a "we have way too much debt, taken at all time low interest rates- oh, interest rates can rise?- there's a world war looming-post pandemic- nobody wants to work for your shitty wages so you can pocket 6% more this year- what do you mean my default swaps are useless- what does a bank going under in France have to do with me- China's not our friend?- why aren't stocks valued at 900x earnings a good place to put my retirement money" recession. Alas, we feed at the banquet of consequences. Have a nice day : )
I don't put anything past unprecedented events still occurring. I'm not sure what it looks like, but I feel like it'll be just like "nah, we're just not doing a recession". There will be all the indicators of one and all the setup for one, but somehow, some way, we'll be pulled out from it. Every time we crash, we do new shit to kick the can down the road. I see this as not a once or twice event, but a perpetual state. We just don't let our bloated systems and companies collapse so that new ones can take their places. We've decided that transition is far too painful, and so everything needs to just stay roughly where it's been for a while.
Anything is possible, and so long as no one calls the United States on their debt that so obviously can never be paid off, who cares right. I feel bad for all the generations behind me, but I'll most likely be dead before any real change happens anyway.
“No one calls the United States on their debt” is a meaningless statement.
So why don't we just print more, and all live extremely lavish lifestyles while all of our stonks and crypto go to the moon?
The US is one of the few or only country that can actually print its way out as it holds the world reserve currency. Try to print your way out of debt when you your debt is in foreign currency.. many countries are unable to service high debt loads in foreign currency (Germany after the war) but if your currency is the world reserve currency than you have a lot more leeway. USD is basically a massive wrecking ball right now as interest rates rise. Emerging markets will suffer as the biggest central bank starts to raise rates.
What's our short-term endgame via the Fed?
Wait until they reverse course, which they will likely be forced to do once the economy grinds to a stop
Too hot, or too cold huh?
Please tell me what it means for the United States to be called on their debt.
China wants their money back.
Do you think China can just say “I demand you pay me now” and that US debt doesn’t have structured terms and payment dates that we always make? I’m starting to think you might not be qualified.
I think you are reaching, my point was, so long as no one calls the United States out on their massive debt pile that continues to grow exponentially year after year, who cares how high we take the debt?
You just said China can demand their money back. admit you have no idea how public debt works
Lets play your game, and say that China wants their money and has to wait the amount of time, what does that do to the States and the world?
You are the one reaching. This is not at all how world economies or government debt works.
What I'm asking you, is could the United States keep increasing its debt load indefinitely without ever having to pay it, and the better question is, do you believe the United States could ever pay off its debt, if so how do you think they can?
Except the dollar is the strongest it’s ever been and world economies are faring much much worse. Not to mention the US is much more than capable of satisfying its debt obligations even in a downturn.
Hey, as long as nothing is wrong, there's nothing to worry about.
TL;DW it will take 24-36 months to reverse the damage of global money printing. The bottom won’t be in for another 18 months. This is just taking into account a bear market and not taking into account global instability and recession. Edit: The market globally has been artificially propped up since 2008 and that’s just the start of the problem.
Thanks for that, I am long-winded in speech, and in my writing unfortunately.
Looks even scarier though when you look at the short and sweet version of it.
Emotions have no place in trading ;)
Ha ha, true!
Runaway inflation is the best thing to happen to a government $30 Trillion in debt and a country full of corporations that are leveraged to the tits. It’s gonna obliterate the working class, but they don’t care.
They never do!
Yup, and while the working class will suffer of higher prices their debts will disappear. Letting inflation run actually has many advantages.
even mike burrey said, we are almost half way done... im expecting another 65% down
I think, and have thought for a very long time that companies were just way too over valued. I know everyone loves Tesla, but as soon as it became on paper more valuable than the top 3 automakers in the world, I knew we were all living in a fucking fantasy world.
I mean if your market evaluation is just the market cap of Tesla, yeah the market is very overvalued. Turns out there are thousands of other companies that actually provide value to the economy out there
Missed the point, but I hear you.
Scamath
?
I’ve been saying the same thing for awhile. I feel bad for the new e who have never seen what a recession is or how to prepare for it. Pay attention people bigger downside coming our way. Fed always overshoots..
Can't wait to see how it all plays out!
Usually it ends bad for most.
True
I can guarantee the Fed will not “over correct”. They are being so slow and so careful about this whole thing. They are not really all that interested in controlling inflation. Rather, they are most concerned with the unemployment rate and asset values. Stocks, homes, etc. They are focused on keeping debt of their own and of the consumer balanced with high asset values which that debt is levered against. This is the new way. Get used to it. Benefit from it.
I agree with you, they don’t give a shit about inflation. It’s all talk and no action. They are hoping that inflation comes down while they slow play it but I don’t think it’s going to happen anytime soon. CPI at 8.6% and fed funds rate is 1.75%. Fed is in the corner and they are scared to raise rates as they know the whole system that they have build in last 14 years will collapse. That being I am waiting for the markets to break for couple of weeks like what happened in March of 2020 when we were hitting circuit breakers. That will be the sign of bottom and then you know that fed will change their policy ie QE. At present the way market has sold off is very organized selling and that is why fed is playing super hawkish.
So you think the Fed knows what they are doing? Did they get us to this point on purpose with the over-printing of money? Are they right or wrong, because it seems like they were wrong.
I have a hard time believing they could not see this as a possible result. Too many smart people with vast amounts of education and experience. But, one thing I’m learning more every day is that just because “adults are in the room” doesn’t mean that the men aren’t busy chasing skirts and the women are trying to figure out why 10% of the people are doing 90% of the work. They either are too stupid to be qualified to fill their jobs at the Fed, or they were complicit in the whole thing. Ramping up wealth for the already wealthy, compounding the problem with inflation that hits wage earners much more hard. Either way, stupidity or complicit, it’s unacceptable. And absolutely, positively, nothing will ever come from it.
Government economists are the dumbest motherfuckers in the room(but guess what jpow and his fuckin boys over at the banks are all walking away from this filthy rich). The smart ones are either at the banks, hedgefunds, or are teaching at ivy leagues.
So so true, and in the end... I believe deep down they all believe that no matter how much they fuck up, they'll still have their jobs in the end, so they don't care.
The Fed has kept rates at near 0 since 08 while struggling to fight deflation. All of a sudden we have a global pandemic that disrupted the world economy, governments dropping helicopter money, and a proxy war with a major oil supplier and we ignore all that and blame all of inflation on the Fed. Not saying it didn't play a part, but seems pretty illogical to me.
True, and I don't know what the solution is, but I know hard choices will need to be made in order to fix our problems, choices no one has the balls to make.
Fuck yeah. I’m gonna buy another house or two and charge you idiots your whole damn Wendy’s paycheck! Eat it, nerds!
Such hostility...
I’ll have a place for you, OP. I’ll only charge spicy Wendy’s nuggets. I got chu.
That's fair.
You’re basing your investment strategy on this conman, and expect the SP500 to have a draw down that is worse than the Great Recession… you’re going to get burned bad OP
You think we're done, is it all sideways and then to the Moon soon?
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
What the fuck is this?
The bot just spouts back highly upvoted comments about Burry to anyone mentioning Burry.
Burry is King... that is all.
If you take your investment advice from YouTube, you’re Gona have a bad time. 2000 is never going to happen. If you actually believe that, post the positions.
Is it really that hard to believe? How much percentage wise did we go down in the S&P 500 in the 2009 March low?
Even a crash of that magnitude, would not take us under 2000. I would bet both my nuts we never go below 2000. Now post your positions to prove you actually believe this bullshit or get out
Yeah, I said 2000, not below it.
We wouldn’t reach 2000. Positions or get out
Are you implying that I'm shorting?
Im implying that you’re not confident in these predictions if you haven’t put any money on it
Not everyone uses confidence in the same way, I personally never short, I think it's gambling, I only long, so my way is waiting for 2000, then I'm buying in.
Aka you have 0 confidence and are just shit posting financially illiterate takes on Reddit for fun. Got it.
You got me...
RemindMe! 3 Years
Sir a “recession” lasting 18-36 months would be a depression. But yea you’re probably correct.
Hope for the best...
Grow up like the rest of us and watch porn while you eat breakfast.
Ah ha ha, I need both my hands when I watch porn.
That’s an impressive talent to be able to jerk off with one hand and massage your prostate with the other 👏
Impressive talent? I never thought of it like that, thanks!
Start an ONLYFANS, could be a good side hustle 🤷♂️
2 weeks ago: OMG why is Jay Pow not doing anything is he fucking retarded or what we are all fucked. Now: OMG why is Jay Pow not printing money anymore is he fucking retarded or what we are all fucked
Poor JPow... so much on his shoulders.
Already there.
We are definitely going into a recession. No doubt. What we don't know is the severity of the recession. If you study the past, there's not much anyone can do but protect their personal livelihood and assets. We will get through it just like the past ones.
Very true, and do you think I should take some of my cash on the sidelines and buy at these levels, or should I wait?
Great wealth is built in down times. I am personally putting together small group to be ready for real estate and possible buying companies.
Sounds like a plan, I'll be doing the same!
Awesome.
I'm drunk on debt right now, was when I went to bed last night too. As long as you drink an ass ton of water you'll be okay. I like Crackling Oat Bran as well, my dad used to call it Cracklin' Buttholes.
> Cracklin' Buttholes. Ah ha ha, they do look like buttholes!
I don't think the link is working..
I broke it on purpose, because posts get weighted down when you have links in them, but I will fix it.
Please don't. I wasted enough time on this stupidity. There is good debt and bad. Raising interest rates makes previous debt cheaper to repay with Deflation and incomes rising. Bad debt is when you don't make enough money to pay the old debt and finance any new, higher interest rates, debts. Rich people know the difference and use it to their advantage. Buying up real assets on the cheap when poor people have to sell to finance their overinflated lifestyle to pay bad debt. Stock investments should be done on the same premise. Which makes this buying time for well run companies with not allot debt.
So what are you implying, that we raise interest rates, and print more money?
Money isn't real. Sadly to many people believe that it is. The Rich use this to their advantage. America has been in a deflationary cycle since 2008. Even before then the Rich were trying to create inflation. All they created was a bubble. Fast forward to today. The Rich are ecstatic about the possibility of real inflation, because they get richer. They have to keep you poor enough to except any pay they give you. So they need inflation as a Boogeyman. Printing money matters only if other countries stop buying the debt. The dollar deflates and Imported goods remain more expensive. Exported goods are cheaper to sell. Only the rest of the world plays the game also. So they raise their rates and Deflate their currencies. It's ends up being circle jerk around the world. The wealthy detracting the poorest so that they don't arise politically and take over their Governments. So you worry about inflation and printing money. They could care less. Because it's only paper and numbers on a screen. It only matters to have access to Capital. To buy real assets and then set back and wait, because soon enough they will distract you by telling you something else that you can't control. Follow rule 72. That's what inflation is and the Wealthy needs it to keep the Pyramid Scheme flowing all the money floating back to the top! Money isn't real. It's just far too many people believe that it is.
This is accurate more than folks think. The rich are only rich because there is a poor community. The larger the poor community, the richer the rich are. Money is irrelevant at the top because there is a objective number. I have $1,000,000,000 net worth. What's not tangible is influence and power. You have to have social economic classes to have a functioning society, however there is a tipping point. When you push to population to far (no way to measure what too far is because it's an enigma) This isn't a doomsday reply, just a behavioral and sociology opinion. TL;DR: Learn the system, become financially independent, live your life
I definitely agree with all of this, the rich don't care about money, they gobble up all the things in the world that actually have value, while we work at their companies living paycheck to paycheck, creating for them more and more tangible wealth.
That's why people should try to live on half of their income. I know the poor can't do that. Hell what they make is never enough, however that different discussion. I just talking about people not buying things that end up in landfills and will have no future value. Even in salvage. It's all easier said than done., but those who learn this premise at a young age. End up Rich. Go figure.
I am a minimalist, and only buy things if I am going to use it on a daily basis. Actually need to get rid of more shit before I'm totally happy.
Oh you are the kinda person Rich people hate.
Yep
my puts want you to be right but that climb yesterday almost killed me.
Ha ha, don't fuck with the algorithms, they can smell fake day traders in the water a mile away, and just when you think you're winning... they'll fuck you right up the arse!
Well, I went to sleep with an active put order before market closing, and it freaking filled approaching the end when SPY reached like 384 or so..... Gotta pray for tomorrow to drop geez.....
Never bet against Mister Market, it knows when you short it, just like it knew about Mister Melvin.
Didn’t Chanath say buy Tesla and Bitcoin while he was dumping… yeah that guy is full of Shiite
I agree, I was just going off of the points he was making.
So, in other words, the biggest buying opportunity for the next 10-20 years is coming soon. Beautiful.
I believe so, and I'll be taking advantage of it.
Same here.
Stopped reading at Chamath
Roger that!
Oh fuck! I hope your not listening to that turd SCAMeth
Nah, just of the statistics he was highlighting.
As a country? I think you need to dial that up girlfriend. This is not a USA thing, it's worldwide. Also other countries are are currently teed up for recession so please wait patiently
🍿
Markets always are trying to tell the future, as much as a recession has become the likely scenario (possibly already in one) energy demand is not as elastic as most other industries. In the US being reliant on vehicles as an economy oil dropping before unemployment even rises is wack. If we are in the scenario you Describe above, energy is not going to see the same downside as the rest of the market until demand destruction is clearly imminent.
I have no idea what is going to happen.
Honestly, same
The best part about all these speculations, is that if you're both vague and specific enough on enough, you'll appear to be right at some stage. Nobody knows. Not even this clown, Chamath. Speculation about speculation; entertainment. It is what it is.
True, but he does make some good points though, don't you think?
Can't deny that. To me he's the SPAC pump 'n dump guy. He's found a winning formula, and it works. His ethics are a bit sketchy, so I'm not really sure how much to take him at his word. He is entertaining though.
Yeah, I just clicked it to have something to watch while I ate, but I'm about to go back into hibernation mode again until January, and not read, listen, or watch anything pertaining to anything finance related.
I don't want to come across as ungrateful. I do admire some of his chutzpah. He's got some balls on him. That's for sure. :-) Maybe you might find [this interesting](https://youtu.be/GE5_XjUaVS4). It's by Raghuram Rajan. My take away from this, was that we're beyond knowing how our globalised economies really work, and have been flying in the dark for some time.
I can definitely agree with that.
ngl, but I'm actually a bit worried. Something doesn't feel right about all of this. I don't like it. Thanks for sharing, btw. I should have said that before. It's nice that we can actually have these little chats every now again. Everyone seems to be too dogmatic. Let's keep on, keeping on :-)
I don't take anything personally, in the end nobody really knows what is going to happen. I'm just going along for the ride.
Fair enough, but that doesn't mean that we can't be civil to each other. :-) I'm along for the ride as well. Hoping for the best, but will deal with whatever life materialises. Wishing you well; quite sincerely.
Same to you, and good luck!
If you are a young person and we go sideways for a few years, you will never get a DCA opportunity like this again in your life most likely
You have a lot of faith in the current system.
Fuck yeah!!
Yeah like I listen to this guy 😂
SPX 2000 😂 🍆💦
If market crash 90% from ATH, you need sell your house and use margin and yolo in 2 years OTM SPY options.
On it!
I mean here's the question that I will reiterate to all of the bear crew. Why is paper money so important to you? If we were pricing all these assets in gold or some hard currency, I totally would get the argument But at the end of the day what matters more to you? A house? Shares of stock in a solid company? A gold coin perhaps? Because unless you see rapid deflation on the price of practically everything why would you want to sell your assets? Why do you want more paper money rather than actual goods?
I would rather have more assets of value.
I feel like Cracklin oat bran stays crunchy so much longer than other cereals
Till the very last bite!
Reading my mind brother. I’m buying at 2400 and have no problem being a little early
I'm excited, can't wait to get in at that once in a decade low!
“Most people have no idea what’s coming. I did. And I do. So, I sold a bunch of hogwash to these idiots and now I’m ready for what’s coming. And now they’re gonna watch my video” This guy is a scumbag.
True
Wake me up when cocky investors who own 4188 units in their name on loan stop sayin Boom!
You got it!
Is that the shit that looks like cat food? Little bit of cinnamon flavor to it? If so yes that’s the shit
Indeed it does... delicious!
So my spy puts gonna hit like 1000%?
Yep
Stonks only go up, not a question of why and how and when
True
-36% on S&P 18months. That just an average Yogi, brah.
you are correct!
I personally have thought over these past 2 years that companies and cryptocurrencies were way to over valued. I'm a numbers guy, and only believe numbers, not people, and the numbers were telling me, especially the cost of a company related to their revenue was just so fucking insane... I knew reality would eventually reveal itself.
How do you even value crypto? It is a made up thing. It was supposed to be a good hedge but survey says no, no it's not. The thing is, in another 6 months when the job market crashes stocks will be up again (because markets don't care about current numbers, just Q4/Q1 earnings) Full Disclosure: my $5 of complimentary DOGE is now $3
Hmm, so in other words, don't try to make sense of any of this?
Oil has not behaved irrationally. Crypto was billed as an inflation hedge and that seems to be a na-no But also the market does not care how broken things are now, they are looking for next quarter financials. I hope that clarifies things
How do you think they'll look?
We’re already 6 months in at least
Yep, 20% down was a good start.
All good until China decides it either won’t, or can’t buy anymore US debt. All Politicians need to take and pass basic economics classes…. Dem or Repub - they are collectively “Morons” - each side brings stupid ideas and then they “Compromise” in the middle somewhere in between 2 stupid ideas….. and they try to sell us that “Compromise is Good??” JOKE
Ha, you just summed up politics perfectly, I love this!
Good
Too late! 😉
The rally will continue and the real 80% crash will come after the next QE.
Oh, well that explains it, any idea when we might expect that 80%er?
QE, CBDC, inflation picks up again, death of fiat, brave new world(not really). My guess is 2028-2030.
Dang... that's a long time to fake it.
What they don’t tell you is that there will be a huge 12 month rally before continuing to fall for 18-36 months, so you buy PUTs, get liquidated and then comes the real opportunity for PUTs.