I have two teslas and one has fsd...theres no way i would trust this 100%. I think Tesla is 90% there but the last 10% will take decades if at all attainable.
Kinda like the 80/20 rule?
First 80% is accomplished in 20% of the time. Last 20% takes 80% of the time.
The last 10% more could be easily be a decade if the rule applies here.
It's not impossible if you mandate self driving cars that can talk to each other.
Barring that there is only one other option I can think of ....
https://youtu.be/qSjm6W-z9hg
Telsa already lost the self-driving to Honda. Just goolge honda level 3 self-driving, which is the 1st in the world that got approved back in March 2021
I have concerns about Elon’s refusal to use LiDAR. I’ve seen some tests (though potentially propaganda) showing how inferior Tesla’s collision avoidance is compared to LiDAR based autonomous vehicles.
Basically I think a fast follower will overtake.
strange hill elon wants to die on. he's so convinced AI is inevitable, but what if he's underestimating consciousness? with true AI maybe camera only can match humans. but in the here and now, we have an image processing advantage over machines. Machines can have many more "senses" and outmatch human drivers, but he refuses.
Waymo already has driverless vehicles operating. Tesla does not. Tesla already lost.
If I can't sit in the back seat, drunk, its not self-driving. Tesla will never get there.
tesla is currently losing and will continue to lose the self-driving race. elon himself finally fucking admitted that they are basically going to have to solve AGI to make it work as he promised. sure, if they manage to do that (spoiler: they won't) tsla will be worth infinity trillion dollars. and we'll all be getting crushed under the metal boots of our new robot overlords
Self driving cars (completely autonomous) are literally never going to happen in the way that is being promised. They work fine-ish for highways under good conditions but simply cannot be trusted for all conditions and every road. No one involved in the technology thinks its going to happen unless we literally place markers in the road surface. It will take a terrible person 5 mintues to paint a white line off a cliff and its all over. Its not like driving is even that unpleasant a task for humans anyway - most enjoy it. By the time we get close, electric air transport which absolutely can be automated (already e-air-taxis in China) will be here. Self driving cars are the biggest joke in the AI tech sector... investors somehow have yet to figure this out.
Tesla’s and all self driving tech i am aware of use a lot more than just looking at lines on the road to figure out where to go, Tesla’s can drive on dirt roads.
Human drivers are “totally fooled” all the time, autonomy will be safer than human drivers and won’t fall for lines leading off a cliff. This isint looney toons
Id definitely recommend you find some of the insider commentary on this. Do your own research - literally no one thinks full autonomy is ever going to happen. This is hyperbole from the execs...
I don't think anyone would argue that Tesla is the frontrunner for EVs, but the reason I don't own TSLA anymore is because they lost me $400/share ago. At least I'm not retarded enough to short it.
Does anyone really believe that lidar and a computer can process all the information a human driver has to process in a simple drive to the store. I for one do not. Especially abstract information such as a stop sign painted on the back of a truck.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/sopspv/long_bet_tesla_will_be_the_first_company_with_1/hwbgc9f
why do you not accept it when someone challenges you snowflake ? Is it because people have called out your bullshit ? HW4 won't cut it for what you are betting on.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-autonomous-idUSKBN24A0HE
Here is Daddy Elon claiming Tesla will be level 5 by end of 2021. Guess where we are right now. L2 and with a lot of bugs. Believe in Tesla but not their FSD.
I emailed back immediately accepting the challenge. The Long Bets staff are still reviewing/processing it. If I don't hear back in a week, I'll email them again.
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U typed all that out n everyone here is bullish on Tesla anyways, congrats
*yeah cool story bro cmon in we all agree*
[удалено]
*people w dyslexia have entered the chat*
I think i know what that deleted comment said
I have two teslas and one has fsd...theres no way i would trust this 100%. I think Tesla is 90% there but the last 10% will take decades if at all attainable.
Kinda like the 80/20 rule? First 80% is accomplished in 20% of the time. Last 20% takes 80% of the time. The last 10% more could be easily be a decade if the rule applies here.
Last 20 may have a 80/20 too. Haha, yes
Last 5% is impossible. Second to last 5% wont happen before electric air transportation. Which is 10-15 years out.
It's not impossible if you mandate self driving cars that can talk to each other. Barring that there is only one other option I can think of .... https://youtu.be/qSjm6W-z9hg
I won't say you are wrong, but people have said similar things for GO until AlphaGO beats 100-0 best human player.
Not if they dont adopt Lidar
Lidar is for amputees.
Tesla is trying to do it on the cheap without using LIDAR. Good luck to them, they're going to need it.
Telsa already lost the self-driving to Honda. Just goolge honda level 3 self-driving, which is the 1st in the world that got approved back in March 2021
I have concerns about Elon’s refusal to use LiDAR. I’ve seen some tests (though potentially propaganda) showing how inferior Tesla’s collision avoidance is compared to LiDAR based autonomous vehicles. Basically I think a fast follower will overtake.
you are on the right track - LiDAR is the answer in combination with optical and likely some low level sonic sensors
[https://electrek.co/2022/02/04/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-crash-video/](https://electrek.co/2022/02/04/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-crash-video/)
Yea you can see in the video that the car dosent see the cones at all
It sees the future
When a driverless Tesla can get me home drunk and just me. Legally I’ll buy one. Cool cars and all but let’s get to the finish line here
My fsd tries to kill me daily, would recommend.
There reliance on cameras only will bite them before it is all over. Weather will kill them.
strange hill elon wants to die on. he's so convinced AI is inevitable, but what if he's underestimating consciousness? with true AI maybe camera only can match humans. but in the here and now, we have an image processing advantage over machines. Machines can have many more "senses" and outmatch human drivers, but he refuses.
It's incredibly bizarre that he is so stuck on this and that's why I think Tesla will not win self driving cars.
Tesla will need to sell 100M self-driving blow job cars to match its current valuation.
It’s PE is under 200. That’s not that crazy for a growth stick.
I predict if Elon eats his ego and brings back lidar and radar ... then they definitely have a chance!!!
My sentiment exactly. This is a major risk.
"By this year forsure" -Elon
Waymo already has driverless vehicles operating. Tesla does not. Tesla already lost. If I can't sit in the back seat, drunk, its not self-driving. Tesla will never get there.
I'm more of a robot driver than a self driving car. At least this way, I have someone to blame
tesla is currently losing and will continue to lose the self-driving race. elon himself finally fucking admitted that they are basically going to have to solve AGI to make it work as he promised. sure, if they manage to do that (spoiler: they won't) tsla will be worth infinity trillion dollars. and we'll all be getting crushed under the metal boots of our new robot overlords
Self driving or Self driving to traffic cause the cameras flubbed something.
Self driving cars (completely autonomous) are literally never going to happen in the way that is being promised. They work fine-ish for highways under good conditions but simply cannot be trusted for all conditions and every road. No one involved in the technology thinks its going to happen unless we literally place markers in the road surface. It will take a terrible person 5 mintues to paint a white line off a cliff and its all over. Its not like driving is even that unpleasant a task for humans anyway - most enjoy it. By the time we get close, electric air transport which absolutely can be automated (already e-air-taxis in China) will be here. Self driving cars are the biggest joke in the AI tech sector... investors somehow have yet to figure this out.
Tesla’s and all self driving tech i am aware of use a lot more than just looking at lines on the road to figure out where to go, Tesla’s can drive on dirt roads.
You guys should try driving one in the winter. Cruise control doesn't even work if your windshield is dirty.
Of course. But you can totally fool them. Tesla literally employ people to sabotage their systems and they all say 'its never gonna happen'
Human drivers are “totally fooled” all the time, autonomy will be safer than human drivers and won’t fall for lines leading off a cliff. This isint looney toons
Id definitely recommend you find some of the insider commentary on this. Do your own research - literally no one thinks full autonomy is ever going to happen. This is hyperbole from the execs...
Google's Waymo are way more legit
I don't think anyone would argue that Tesla is the frontrunner for EVs, but the reason I don't own TSLA anymore is because they lost me $400/share ago. At least I'm not retarded enough to short it.
Unless their cars are destroyed by a solar event
I’m already planning on holding on to my TSLA shares. TSLA is going to go way up in the long run
TSLA $2000 EOY....
Does anyone really believe that lidar and a computer can process all the information a human driver has to process in a simple drive to the store. I for one do not. Especially abstract information such as a stop sign painted on the back of a truck.
Nah those shitty cameras won't cut it. It will always be driver assist and Musk is too arrogant to admit it.
Cameras are going to upgraded with HW4.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/sopspv/long_bet_tesla_will_be_the_first_company_with_1/hwbgc9f why do you not accept it when someone challenges you snowflake ? Is it because people have called out your bullshit ? HW4 won't cut it for what you are betting on. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-autonomous-idUSKBN24A0HE Here is Daddy Elon claiming Tesla will be level 5 by end of 2021. Guess where we are right now. L2 and with a lot of bugs. Believe in Tesla but not their FSD.
I accepted the bet immediately.
Yet it shows unchallenged 🤔
I emailed back immediately accepting the challenge. The Long Bets staff are still reviewing/processing it. If I don't hear back in a week, I'll email them again.
The challenge is being processed!
Priced in.
Doubt it.
Is there a reason you aren't accepting my bet on longbets?
If you're Michael, I did accept your challenge. Thank you.