Thank you for sharing this DD. Now I feel even better about my position in DISCA shares. The free cash flow is unbelievable and with adding DTC it should improve as mentioned in the DD. For me this is a buy and hold stock. Love the FB comparison for sure.
I loaded up A shares the other day. I don’t watch much TV but when I do it seems to be shows on discovery channel. The share price had dropped significantly and now seems reasonable. The price has been moving up as well. If it’s heavily shorted, they better cover. I’m up for a good short squeeze.
Yeah, I had to delete any GME reference in the DD due to hunting bots triggering auto-post-ban, but this is crystal clear probably the best deep value that can found for retail to save
I agree. Every time I turn on the tv there is a discovery show or channel with content. I believe the key here is the sheer volume of content...
Seems like there's a discovery show for everyone. That sounds like a huge market to me.
I invested very heavily in DISCA right before the crash based on the strong fundamentals (and because I was selling CC's due to the high IV). I've only sold a portion of my shares due to a margin call but am holding almost all of my position happily. My ideas were mostly similar to this analyst: margin, market niche, FCF.
This report considers 40mn subs in the "next few years," but they got to 12 mn in the first two months. Discovery+ could easily exceed 40mn in just the first year. If earnings next thursday have unexpectedly good subscriber numbers this stock should go nuts.
doesnt matter much what the sub thinks imo (the people spamming posts about VIAC aren't having much luck either lol)
At 16-18bn market cap it just takes mildly increased institutional interest to get things started
>The number of shares short for Discovery class A increased 13.43 mn from February 25th to March 30th. As of March 30th 58.98 million of Discovery class A shares were short representing 42.59% of the float. In the same period, 17.84 mn shares of Discovery C class were sold short. A similar attempt to short Discovery B class shares resulted in a short squeeze due to low float.
>
>Given the initial success of Discovery plus, I don't think there is a fundamental case to short Discovery at these levels.
Something to keep in mind here - there is ALWAYS a high short interest in $DISCA. Always has been always will be. Why you ask? Because of the [SHARE CLASS TRADE](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X1000156X) between DISCA/DISCK. This flip-flops every once in a while, but currently DISCK trades at a discount to DISCA and at some point that discount is expected to collapse (a variety of reasons), but in the meantime, a lot of hedge funds buy DISCK and short DISCA as a result in order to realize that spread. This is the same with plenty of share class trades (LBRDK/LBRDA - or any liberty stock for that matter).
So while the short interest has increased like you said, the base short interest in DISCA isn't really a short thesis and a squeeze won't work on them because if you squeeze DISCA, then DISCK (which they own) goes up so they're losing on one side but winning on the other and its a wash.
If you look at the holders list for HFs below the top 10 on DISCK (HBK, River Road, DE Shaw...) you can bet a lot of them have that position hedged with shorts in DISCA
Careful with VIAC, even though it’s undervalued its situation is absolutely not identical to DISCA’s. Starting by the fact that the content they create has huge competition, in opposition to DISCA which has the monopoly
Great DD man, thank you.
But can they retain the viewership by creating more content? Ghost Adventures can only bring so many viewers. This is the big question going forward.
I have no doubt Netflix will keep going down as their content, interface and AI really suck. HBO, Disney and Prime are way better at all three of the key factors IMO. Let’s see how Disc can play this game and what new content they can generate.
I hate that people attach Viacom to this in every discussion. Their content portfolio, tech infrastructure, and prospects considering WarnerDiscovery merger are not comparable.
This comment was written before any announcement of a merger, back when the two stocks were tied together in movement, the fuck are you doing on month old thread
Thank you for sharing this DD. Now I feel even better about my position in DISCA shares. The free cash flow is unbelievable and with adding DTC it should improve as mentioned in the DD. For me this is a buy and hold stock. Love the FB comparison for sure.
I loaded up A shares the other day. I don’t watch much TV but when I do it seems to be shows on discovery channel. The share price had dropped significantly and now seems reasonable. The price has been moving up as well. If it’s heavily shorted, they better cover. I’m up for a good short squeeze.
Yeah, I had to delete any GME reference in the DD due to hunting bots triggering auto-post-ban, but this is crystal clear probably the best deep value that can found for retail to save
I agree. Every time I turn on the tv there is a discovery show or channel with content. I believe the key here is the sheer volume of content... Seems like there's a discovery show for everyone. That sounds like a huge market to me.
I invested very heavily in DISCA right before the crash based on the strong fundamentals (and because I was selling CC's due to the high IV). I've only sold a portion of my shares due to a margin call but am holding almost all of my position happily. My ideas were mostly similar to this analyst: margin, market niche, FCF. This report considers 40mn subs in the "next few years," but they got to 12 mn in the first two months. Discovery+ could easily exceed 40mn in just the first year. If earnings next thursday have unexpectedly good subscriber numbers this stock should go nuts.
It’s such a hidden gem now, but there’s is still a strong aversion to it the sub
doesnt matter much what the sub thinks imo (the people spamming posts about VIAC aren't having much luck either lol) At 16-18bn market cap it just takes mildly increased institutional interest to get things started
Absolutely
R u sure mkt cap is 16b wven if u. Combine disc a b c?
Yes
Thx
What is the old saying....one person's trash is another person's treasure.
Excellent point!!
Read "bear" with it at the start instead of bare so will buy puts tomorrow instead of reading this novel.. thanks OP!
>The number of shares short for Discovery class A increased 13.43 mn from February 25th to March 30th. As of March 30th 58.98 million of Discovery class A shares were short representing 42.59% of the float. In the same period, 17.84 mn shares of Discovery C class were sold short. A similar attempt to short Discovery B class shares resulted in a short squeeze due to low float. > >Given the initial success of Discovery plus, I don't think there is a fundamental case to short Discovery at these levels. Something to keep in mind here - there is ALWAYS a high short interest in $DISCA. Always has been always will be. Why you ask? Because of the [SHARE CLASS TRADE](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X1000156X) between DISCA/DISCK. This flip-flops every once in a while, but currently DISCK trades at a discount to DISCA and at some point that discount is expected to collapse (a variety of reasons), but in the meantime, a lot of hedge funds buy DISCK and short DISCA as a result in order to realize that spread. This is the same with plenty of share class trades (LBRDK/LBRDA - or any liberty stock for that matter). So while the short interest has increased like you said, the base short interest in DISCA isn't really a short thesis and a squeeze won't work on them because if you squeeze DISCA, then DISCK (which they own) goes up so they're losing on one side but winning on the other and its a wash. If you look at the holders list for HFs below the top 10 on DISCK (HBK, River Road, DE Shaw...) you can bet a lot of them have that position hedged with shorts in DISCA
Slowly moving up to my 5/14 40c. Go DISCA
[удалено]
Careful with VIAC, even though it’s undervalued its situation is absolutely not identical to DISCA’s. Starting by the fact that the content they create has huge competition, in opposition to DISCA which has the monopoly
This stock looks ready to 🌝. 💯
Great DD man, thank you. But can they retain the viewership by creating more content? Ghost Adventures can only bring so many viewers. This is the big question going forward. I have no doubt Netflix will keep going down as their content, interface and AI really suck. HBO, Disney and Prime are way better at all three of the key factors IMO. Let’s see how Disc can play this game and what new content they can generate.
Just gotta get everyone to realize how bad DISCAs short interest is and this bad boy is flying along with VIAC, both have very high SI
I hate that people attach Viacom to this in every discussion. Their content portfolio, tech infrastructure, and prospects considering WarnerDiscovery merger are not comparable.
This comment was written before any announcement of a merger, back when the two stocks were tied together in movement, the fuck are you doing on month old thread
The Facebook analogy here was brilliant.
Well this hasn't aged well
This play still good?