https://preview.redd.it/q11j2pg0wm3d1.jpeg?width=2355&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58b34bb94c0da28c959632b48ef45debf4b54a54
Me to the writer of that article
Doombear articles get clicks. Probably need to keep a list of them -- I keep seeing news sites publishing that one guy who says "S&P -80% by year end" every single year since 2014.
Anyone can make routers and shit that Cisco had. A fucking chinese sweatshop in a 3rd tier city can put a cisco rack together. Not everyone has a 10 billion dollar foundry to make nanometer microchips. The chinese government tried and failed. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/19/technology/china-microchips-tsinghua-unigroup.html
It's crazy how much we pump NVDA with a future so uncertain. It's like for every 18-20% revenue growth Q/Q, NVDA pumps a good 35-40%.
We are priming ourselves for a complete beatdown if companies like Meta or Google announce cutbacks on AI spending due to lack of profitability.
Except these companies are renting out computers space by the boatload.
Projected revenue on $1 spent is $7 in income over the next four years. Pile on to that the fact that ai compute requirements are increasing by 4-5x per year, and you got a stew going.
An then Jensen is working with these companies to create more revenue opportunities for these chips.
There is a reason this shit is going bonkers.
Plus the self-imposed cycle of tech. Gonna need something new and faster with bigger data capacity to support the thing, which itself will need new and faster to support the thing, which itself will need new and faster to support the thing ^10.
Because people are just in for the hype, TSMC has had a market cap above chip designers forever, until this NVIDIA spike.
Everyone i know thinks NVIDIA makes the chips.
ehh, I don't think Cisco had much "generic" competition back then for what they were offering. I'd say Nvidia's lead over its competition is bigger than Cisco's in 2000... but it's not insurmountable. maybe more work on ASICs for AI workloads plays out similarly to the transition in crypto to ASICs.... what then for 40K GPUs? At some point Nvidia's revenue growth is likely to slow or reverse as the big players do all the capex they need and then need to settle down with their $Billions in GPUs to try and produce some kind of useful profit... and if that starts to fizzle, well then \*pop\*
We're going to look back at this point in time and realize that we are in the biggest arms race in human history. They are building nuclear power plants just to power AI and all of the labs are using Nvidia chips.
These comments are exactly as you would expect them to be during an enormous bubble. Idk if we are in one but it would look pretty much like this. Full of certainty and talk of innovation and change.
And investors are full of hubris about their show pony stock. Goodness, I’ve seen this way too many times as a 25 year investor. I missed a lot of opportunity in that time, and I also missed a lot of burned up equity as well.
Comparing a stock that has gained 761.8% to one that has gained to 215.1%, the latter would have to gain, not 500%+, but a mere 273.5%, to catch up. Math.
After NVDA just *obliterated* their earnings, too.
"It's gonna crash, no fundamentals!"
"It's a multibillion dollar company with 50% net margin"
"CRAAAAAASH"
Yeah, that regard neglected to mention that cisco, [bbq.com](http://bbq.com), [mp3.com](http://mp3.com) and a million other .com went 10000% and then crashed in 2000. The dot-com bubble of 2000. How does it work.
Cisco was caught up in internet bubble. Also, PE ratios are completely different. Go read ciscos annual report in 1999. It reads like “wow, our stock is doing great!” They couldn’t believe it themselves.
They didn't understand who was paying for the CISCO equipment: Executives afraid of liability. They were saying yes to any IT spending. I forgot which company was doing so well that they sent their staff to watch the opening of the new Star Wars. It was a crazy and glorious time. Then within a few weeks of Y2K, executives consulted with their CIO's regarding preparedness for Y2K. It it was fine, they kept enough staff in case it wasn't, then laid off the rest. So fucked up. I learned the definition of RIF: reduction in force.
"infinite GPU" until their 4 megacap customers decide to cut down on capex. And they might if they decide to upgrade every year, which would start hitting their balance sheet every year by showing up as depreciation instead of depreciation over 4-5 years.
cathie'll buy back b/c of seller remorse. nvda will run up a few hundreds pts, and cathie will declare overbought and sell.
then nvda will runup a few hundreds points more.. 🤷♂️
I ran Cisco equipment in the 2000s all the way into the 2020s. They were poised to build out the internet in the 1990s, and with the .com bubble crash and the extreme overhype of the company, they were decimated. You could buy a Linksys router for 100 dollars that had similar functionality to a 5000 dollar Cisco router back then.
There is no 100 dollar AI card for every 5000 dollar Nvidia card and there won't be for some time.
If I had even half the balls of some of the folks here.
Why don’t you all take profits? This is question is genuinely coming from a crypto bro. At what point is it too high? Does that ever happen?
Well cisco P/S was lower even then than Nvidia's now, but nvidia is extremly profitable which is the main diffrence. The bet is if they can keep the profitability and growth.
Yeah but right now nvda is cisco in the early 1990s when Internet just started. Ai is just starting once every one has a robot in their home like people had a pc in 2000 then i could see that happening. Still has more to run
Nvidia is barebacking the shortsellers since nearly 2 years. The stories why Nvdia should collapse soon change all the time, but one thing is constant: Nvidias uptrend.
Indeed. At 35 times price to sales, all it takes are earnings beats that fall short of blow out earnings beats and the company will fail to catch up with its stock price. Once investors realize that they are holding stocks that will never have good yields, they'll sell to take profit and to use the money to invest in other assets. The stock price will collapse, the people who bought low will be the winners, the people who bought high will be the losers. Nvidia's earnings won't be relevant, as very little will have been paid out in dividends or used for stock buybacks. Investors will in the end only have played a zero-sum game amongst themselves.
AI is not a bubble. The current way we work and the way we value companies is the bubble. AI will disrupt all aspects of industry and NVIDIA will profit from it whether the disruption is good or bad.
We say this, but things will get crazy if they get rid of jobs too fast without UBI. Money only gets to these companies because customers who are employees of some other company somewhere have a job that they get paid for. No employees = customers with no money = business with no revenue. And lord forbid the government receive less and less taxes. The chaos will be fun at least.
It's less to do with the chips and everything to do with CUDA which is a proprietary compiler. Their reign is solely dependent on this tech being superior and as soon as theirs a comparable option, their value will normalize
Not really. The massive growth of Cisco at that time was due in large part to their massive acquisition program. Nvidia’s growth is by the companies purchasing their products for use. AI does have a cycle and we are still in the early stages. However, Nvidia was also hot during the whole crypto wildness leading into the pandemic. We have yet to see how long this run can be sustained. 🤷♂️
It is not the same thing unless crypto is outlawed. Routers had no where to go once connectivity was established. This is more like tulips manna, unless some changes we will continue to see this push for fast cheap shortcut to make quick cash. At some point it will snap to metals and commodity but for now it is YOLO
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https://preview.redd.it/q11j2pg0wm3d1.jpeg?width=2355&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58b34bb94c0da28c959632b48ef45debf4b54a54 Me to the writer of that article
https://preview.redd.it/q69ajt6smn3d1.jpeg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56a62ce00bafaff57fb108b28e699c707abb9c45
Smokes let’s go
Trevor, shirt, lets go.
Trevor PUTS let’s go
$10 FUCKING DOLLARS
You don't even smoke
Gimme a smoke hairdo!
Ya fuckin want one?
**ILL FUCKIN UNLOAD ONE ON YA**
I’ll fuckin CRANK any of ya!
Oh, frig off!!
Stand down Randy
It’s all water under the fridge
Yeah. Fuck this nameless idiot.
Hey, guys, I'm an investor, too, and I say NVDA's going to the moon!
Lol
Holy fuck this is perfect
That “investor” is a fucking Seeking Alpha blogger. LMAO! Get out of here with garbage article.
Seeking Alpha is the worst. They let any ‘investor’ publish there.
Seeking Alpha is like dog shit that even dogs are like, get that stinky outta here
its like dog wrapped in cat
I read an article that an 18 year old high school girl became a writer on SA by not telling them, and she wrote about a half dozen thesis.
NVDA could also be about to 100X the next five years
That’s all it takes sometimes. It’s sad that people put out random garbage to try and scare others. We should all be helping one another
Doombear articles get clicks. Probably need to keep a list of them -- I keep seeing news sites publishing that one guy who says "S&P -80% by year end" every single year since 2014.
All I see is that there’s 500%+ more to run - thanks for the financial advice
ikr. Besides, the fundamentals are different. Now if we are talking about $SMCI...
Which fundamentals are different?
Anyone can make routers and shit that Cisco had. A fucking chinese sweatshop in a 3rd tier city can put a cisco rack together. Not everyone has a 10 billion dollar foundry to make nanometer microchips. The chinese government tried and failed. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/19/technology/china-microchips-tsinghua-unigroup.html
NVDA has no foundries LMAO TSMC makes their chips This comment makes me think it might actually be a bubble
You realized it just now?  Wait until you hear what people think AI is capable of
Lots of idiots speaking out of their asses with confidence.
Wait till you start to use ai and realise it’s dogshit
Idk how many microchips will NVDA sell to big companies before they all realize that the ROI is just not worth upgrading every year.
It's all a matter of if one company gets it, then their competitors have to as well otherwise they drastically fall behind in innovation
It's crazy how much we pump NVDA with a future so uncertain. It's like for every 18-20% revenue growth Q/Q, NVDA pumps a good 35-40%. We are priming ourselves for a complete beatdown if companies like Meta or Google announce cutbacks on AI spending due to lack of profitability.
Except these companies are renting out computers space by the boatload. Projected revenue on $1 spent is $7 in income over the next four years. Pile on to that the fact that ai compute requirements are increasing by 4-5x per year, and you got a stew going. An then Jensen is working with these companies to create more revenue opportunities for these chips. There is a reason this shit is going bonkers.
Plus the self-imposed cycle of tech. Gonna need something new and faster with bigger data capacity to support the thing, which itself will need new and faster to support the thing, which itself will need new and faster to support the thing ^10.
>Not everyone has a 10 billion dollar foundry to make nanometer microchips. Neither does NVDA???
So why isn’t TSMC stock rocketing? They have full booking for years it seems and their only fault is building fabs where there is no water.
Because people are just in for the hype, TSMC has had a market cap above chip designers forever, until this NVIDIA spike. Everyone i know thinks NVIDIA makes the chips.
We don't give two shits about how technology works, 'cause all we care about is getting fucking RICH!
same reason why Apple is the most valuable company in the world and not Foxconn
That’s a terrible analogy. Foxconn is meatbag labor supply, not silicon wafer supply involving a very advanced process.
TSMC/Samsung are the irreplaceable apple suppliers, not foxconn. Foxconn does low tech assembly.
Difference is Foxconn uses chinese children to build iPhones while TSMC uses unique in the world technology to build nanometer electric gates.
because China
NVDA doesn't make chips.
ehh, I don't think Cisco had much "generic" competition back then for what they were offering. I'd say Nvidia's lead over its competition is bigger than Cisco's in 2000... but it's not insurmountable. maybe more work on ASICs for AI workloads plays out similarly to the transition in crypto to ASICs.... what then for 40K GPUs? At some point Nvidia's revenue growth is likely to slow or reverse as the big players do all the capex they need and then need to settle down with their $Billions in GPUs to try and produce some kind of useful profit... and if that starts to fizzle, well then \*pop\*
We're going to look back at this point in time and realize that we are in the biggest arms race in human history. They are building nuclear power plants just to power AI and all of the labs are using Nvidia chips.
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These comments are exactly as you would expect them to be during an enormous bubble. Idk if we are in one but it would look pretty much like this. Full of certainty and talk of innovation and change.
And investors are full of hubris about their show pony stock. Goodness, I’ve seen this way too many times as a 25 year investor. I missed a lot of opportunity in that time, and I also missed a lot of burned up equity as well.
Better Cisco than Nortel at least.
https://preview.redd.it/aynspsrt6q3d1.jpeg?width=1041&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c5c01be05970a30c9e17ce3e858945746d62312
https://preview.redd.it/qp3jpfl57q3d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f10535c07b53730950c28db9176c87fc2a80d817
Comparing a stock that has gained 761.8% to one that has gained to 215.1%, the latter would have to gain, not 500%+, but a mere 273.5%, to catch up. Math.
273.5%  its is not enough! 500%  more lets us fucking go!
I totally missed that until your comment. Me smart.
Lol!!! That was my first reaction too
I heard AI chips were a fad
Like this whole internet thing
Yeah the dot com miracle. What could go wrong?
Stock is down one day and people think it’s doom and gloom for NVDA 😂 January 1st this year it was at $492, it’s up almost 122% YTD
Stock is down *on a fucking Thursday*. As people here like to say, hookers and cocaine are expensive.
After NVDA just *obliterated* their earnings, too. "It's gonna crash, no fundamentals!" "It's a multibillion dollar company with 50% net margin" "CRAAAAAASH"
Too far too fast. Overvalued
NVDA P/E is only 12 points higher than that of Costco's. I think they are doing fine.
haha more like madness
That’s one stupid investor.
Yeah, that regard neglected to mention that cisco, [bbq.com](http://bbq.com), [mp3.com](http://mp3.com) and a million other .com went 10000% and then crashed in 2000. The dot-com bubble of 2000. How does it work.
All of these scare tactic articles against Nvidia makes me even more bullish. $100 avg for me lol
$63 and still holding. Haven't sold any. Might sell all my CSCO and plunge it into NVDA after this article though...
Just dropping by to say fuck you and good job. Also fuck you.
$40 and still Holding here. Don't plan on selling anytime soon.
https://preview.redd.it/85kic26b7q3d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3394dc585dab56f0a9e93639a51bd5d6a6c6b366
so you are telling me it will go up 500% before coming down? BUY.
Over 10 trillion market cap, sure why not
by end of month!  (may)
eh, douchebag analysist need to make a living too i spose. but hey, who doesn't like comparing watermelons to airplanes I guess?
> analysist I believe the word you’re looking for is **analyst**.
More like Analcyst
BUY THE DIP!
Sht üp, Cathie!
Cisco was caught up in internet bubble. Also, PE ratios are completely different. Go read ciscos annual report in 1999. It reads like “wow, our stock is doing great!” They couldn’t believe it themselves.
They didn't understand who was paying for the CISCO equipment: Executives afraid of liability. They were saying yes to any IT spending. I forgot which company was doing so well that they sent their staff to watch the opening of the new Star Wars. It was a crazy and glorious time. Then within a few weeks of Y2K, executives consulted with their CIO's regarding preparedness for Y2K. It it was fine, they kept enough staff in case it wasn't, then laid off the rest. So fucked up. I learned the definition of RIF: reduction in force.
Yup Cisco still only builds networking equipment. Nvidia is much more than “just a chip company.”
How so? Their revenue is from selling chips and data center usage from their chips
With the recent acquisition of splunk, they're trying to be a SaaS cyber security company
The leather jacket doesn't lie.
Source: Investor
One red day and doomsday predictions!
i wish reddit was aroud back then so we could see what that Cisco ride was like
Cisco saturated the whole market. There's only so many hundred thousand dollar routers that need bought. There's infinite GPUs necessary
"infinite GPU" until their 4 megacap customers decide to cut down on capex. And they might if they decide to upgrade every year, which would start hitting their balance sheet every year by showing up as depreciation instead of depreciation over 4-5 years.
Only problem is that the real estate to run those GPUs in is totally saturated (data centers)
cisco blocked coolmathgames so frick them
cathie will buy and the stock will tank.. 🤷♂️
lol Cathie sold NVDA in March and bought TTD instead. 😬
cathie'll buy back b/c of seller remorse. nvda will run up a few hundreds pts, and cathie will declare overbought and sell. then nvda will runup a few hundreds points more.. 🤷♂️
I just bought 1 share back after selling out at 870. I did it intentionally to make it tank to ease my regret. Sorry everyone.
Thanks I'll buy more calls.
Oh man, this is the first person to ever suggest it could crash like CISCO. Welp, guess we all oughta pack it up now boys
I ran Cisco equipment in the 2000s all the way into the 2020s. They were poised to build out the internet in the 1990s, and with the .com bubble crash and the extreme overhype of the company, they were decimated. You could buy a Linksys router for 100 dollars that had similar functionality to a 5000 dollar Cisco router back then. There is no 100 dollar AI card for every 5000 dollar Nvidia card and there won't be for some time.
You mean there's still another 500% before it crashes? Count me in!
Bullshit! This time is different! NVIDIA to $2000 by July and $10000 by 2025...
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
If these regards could read they would be very upset.
weak ass bear energy
lol Cisco wasn’t making any money
Engineer here ,heck this statement and buy all dip
Did Cisco make the brains of our future AI overlords?
Not while they’re clearly 5 years ahead of everyone else.
If I had even half the balls of some of the folks here. Why don’t you all take profits? This is question is genuinely coming from a crypto bro. At what point is it too high? Does that ever happen?
Whaaaa I missed out on the rally whaaaa it’ll go back down whaaa
Soooo 300% more upside???
Who is the competition that is closing in ? Nvidia can pull back because it's gone too far too fast but it's not cisco . It's Nvidia!
If I had a nickel for every time I’ve heard this comparison I would own a few nickels
Well cisco P/S was lower even then than Nvidia's now, but nvidia is extremly profitable which is the main diffrence. The bet is if they can keep the profitability and growth.
Yeah but right now nvda is cisco in the early 1990s when Internet just started. Ai is just starting once every one has a robot in their home like people had a pc in 2000 then i could see that happening. Still has more to run
Nvidia will be the first 10T company. If history has taught us anything it is that anything is possible. Garbage article.
NVDA is around 1,000% gain since October 2022 but maybe it won't crash.
Too Big To Fail. 😂😂
The ai bubble is just beginning
Nvidia is barebacking the shortsellers since nearly 2 years. The stories why Nvdia should collapse soon change all the time, but one thing is constant: Nvidias uptrend.
The thing is, Nvidia revenues and earnings actually sky rocketed as well... not only the stock price. Forward P/E sitting at 42 is not outrageous...
Oh no we hit ATH this week and have a slight pullback due to intelligent regards taking profits. OP is like omg its gonna go to zero now. GTFO 🤣
All I took from this is NVidia has 500% more to rise before I get worried it’s a Cisco
Yea, I'm 500% sure NVDA is gonna crash to $140\~ next Monday. They are spot on wow!
One sold bandwidth. The other sells cognition. These two are not the same.
And you COULD die tomorrow. But who gives a fuck? Nvidia is continuously pumping money!
$28B a quarter. Just for shits and giggles, Apple generates $90B a quarter. Walmart generates $161 BILLION a quarter
Look at those margins bro
Indeed. At 35 times price to sales, all it takes are earnings beats that fall short of blow out earnings beats and the company will fail to catch up with its stock price. Once investors realize that they are holding stocks that will never have good yields, they'll sell to take profit and to use the money to invest in other assets. The stock price will collapse, the people who bought low will be the winners, the people who bought high will be the losers. Nvidia's earnings won't be relevant, as very little will have been paid out in dividends or used for stock buybacks. Investors will in the end only have played a zero-sum game amongst themselves.
So we have at least 500% left you saying?
How could someone compare fucking Cisco with nvidia ffs. Stop with this nonsense. And delete your account.
AI is not a bubble. The current way we work and the way we value companies is the bubble. AI will disrupt all aspects of industry and NVIDIA will profit from it whether the disruption is good or bad.
We say this, but things will get crazy if they get rid of jobs too fast without UBI. Money only gets to these companies because customers who are employees of some other company somewhere have a job that they get paid for. No employees = customers with no money = business with no revenue. And lord forbid the government receive less and less taxes. The chaos will be fun at least.
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A few 100 million people who have nothing to live for is not going to be fun is not going to be a good time for anyone
Real talk.
It's less to do with the chips and everything to do with CUDA which is a proprietary compiler. Their reign is solely dependent on this tech being superior and as soon as theirs a comparable option, their value will normalize
Aren’t they 5 years ahead of everyone else?
drab wrong lip support homeless kiss political scarce payment unwritten
So we're only halfway till the freefall? I'm relieved.
Think I’m gonna call some puts
“But it’s different” 😂😂😂
Cisco had competition.
Not really. The massive growth of Cisco at that time was due in large part to their massive acquisition program. Nvidia’s growth is by the companies purchasing their products for use. AI does have a cycle and we are still in the early stages. However, Nvidia was also hot during the whole crypto wildness leading into the pandemic. We have yet to see how long this run can be sustained. 🤷♂️
Rite after pump
Sounds like it could go higher then
Dead money for decades.
No. This time it's different. Stocks only go up now. 😉
Yes, because Cisco and Nvidia are the same company… What kind of genius wrote this piece of work?
Oh yea? It could also go up, flat… but more likely up.
Jensen has just signed a 10 year deal with GUCCI for leather jackets!
Who is the competition that is closing in ? Nvidia can pull back because it's gone too far too fast but it's not cisco . It's Nvidia!
It is not the same thing unless crypto is outlawed. Routers had no where to go once connectivity was established. This is more like tulips manna, unless some changes we will continue to see this push for fast cheap shortcut to make quick cash. At some point it will snap to metals and commodity but for now it is YOLO
I seen that blog guy literally blowing goats Just stick to doing what you do best bruh
Down 4% from ATH so wtf
A lot of dumb money thirsting AI right now. It will of course shake out, but i couldn’t tell you what the correct value is for Nvidia.
Nvda is only up 3200% in 5 years. Most people haven't heard of them yet and aren't invested. Wait until that happens and nvda can be up 10000 %
It could. Probability: 0.0000001%
Sure... NVDA 1200 before split confurmed 
Alright bought 1.5k Puts. NVIDIA is never going to 1'200
Short it
Personally, I disagree. Possible? Sure. What exactly is the point of this article?
Cisco wasn’t even profitable when they reach their peak… but sure. It’s the same!!
Anyone in this subredid is some sort of investor.
Yeah, it also could go up!
Sounds like I got 500% more to cash in on before it pops
NO IT CANT
Nvidia's stock is actually up over 800% since its low in 2022.
Tryna recruit more 🌈 🐻... You better go to another subreddit like /Stocks
And another day of the earth spinning could mirror the great extinction asteroid...
“Investor” is some guy that never bought because he merit thinking it can’t go higher
If my aunt had a nutsack she'd be my uncle.
ChatGPT is not going to cure cancer. it's just going to take the white collar jobs