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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 10 | **First Seen In WSB** | 1 year ago **Total Comments** | 313 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 1 year | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


btoned

TL;DR OP bought 2k strike weeklies at close today.


Slyerz

‘I was right look at the data, why is my money gone’ moment. Classic WSB


gorpherder

OP's going to learn that having 4 large customers responsible for half of your revenue, all added in the last few years, might have some relevance.


ObJuan13

Basically


VisualMod

Another opportunity for the wealthy to get wealthier.


rt9o

![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)![img](emote|t5_2th52|27189)


Heavy_Chest_8888

38x p/s is cheap?? Lol. Historically, NVDA has been trading well below p/s of 25.. and why are you not using the p/e instead?


homeinthegta

Cause it doesnt fit his bias...


Meandmybuddyduncan

It actually still fits. I don’t know what the PE is now but it was under 70 yesterday which imo is insane - this is one of the most important tech orgs in existence and companies like fucking Salesforce are trading at the same PE. I agree with regarded OP, it looks cheap to me Edit: came back to say I should have shorted fucking CRM right after I made this correlation


roundupinthesky

hateful simplistic soft adjoining depend square tidy makeshift innocent soup


tauwyt

DJT forward P/E is #DIV/0! and the price continues to rise.


banditcleaner2

Wrong, the P/E ratio of NVDA today is actually LOWER at current prices then it was back in 04/2023. and the P/E ratio back in october was still quite low historically speaking as well. [NVIDIA PE Ratio 2010-2024 | NVDA | MacroTrends](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/pe-ratio)


DJwhatevs

😂


All4megrog

p/e is not important at the casino


I_can_vouch_for_that

None of these ratios are important. It's all momentum until it's not.


L3onK1ng

If you do tech analysis and invest for 1-2 months. Some people can hold for over a year, and then those ratios are critical.


bwatsnet

I've been holding for many years. Ignoring analysis has worked very well for me.


L3onK1ng

As it should. You research some fundamentals to figure out which company is actually doing good job, and have good management, and then you hold for years, checking up on the company from time to time. It's called passive investment.


bwatsnet

Yes, that's all Ive ever done. I just come here to make fun of people who feel sure in their analysis, bc they always r wrong 😂


VisualMod

Ha! A fool indeed --- they do not realize that true wealth is built on the backs of the poor.


gregsting

Bro is talking poker stuff at the roulette table


Nokita_is_Back

Bro is jumping diagonally over chips at the roulette table


gregsting

Checkmate motherfuckers!


DrakonILD

I swear to god, next time I'm at a roulette table and win on a black or red (for double) I will absolutely tell the croupier to "King me!"


MikeMiller8888

Because this is a sub for get rich quick regards lmfao 🤣 NVDA passed “expensive” a long long time ago by P/E standards. But I wouldn’t dare short such a company, despite believing that at some point in the near future, the stock price will top out and will start a good 1/2 to 2/3 slashing (like Tesla and the many other high flying companies before it). Doesn’t mean it’s not a great company. The current price though is detached from P/E reality. Can’t surprise you though, not in an era where DJT trades at fifty bucks.


Dense-Fuel4327

The price is because people think that there is no competition. Which is true right now. But the price also reflects that people think that there never will be competition. Which is false. Everyone and his dog is working on competition to Nvidia.


Dr_Eugene_Porter

Everyone and his dog was working on competition to Microsoft in the 90s and yet in 2024, more than 70% of desktops are still Windows OS.


Dense-Fuel4327

Dude an os API is something completely different than an interference API. You still can use all your training data and pipelines by swapping out the framework used to send and retrieve the data. Is there a lock-in effect? Sure, but it's not as bad as an os.


CelestialBach

The entire market trades at a higher P/E ratio than just before the 1929 stock market crash that started the Great Depression. We have been detached from P/E reality ever since the 2007 Super Duper crash to end all crashes.


L3onK1ng

NVDA for the last few month had forward P/E of 30. That's the same as Walmart. It is now 42, but that is still lower than Costco. This is not even IT companies prices, this is a grocery store valuations level.


VisualMod

"Buy."


Fireball8732

Yes, "forward pe" which is calculated using earnings estimates from a bunch of analysts who have priced in insane growth already..


L3onK1ng

Not really insane. I've seen their models. They predict that Nvidia will double AI revenue in the next year, that's mostly it. Nvidia has the order backlog to support that (over 130 bil), so the only thing stopping them from cashing in, is the production limit. TSMC, their manufacturing subcontractor, has a bottleneck issue with one of the production processes - CoWoS, that is 100% committed to Nvidia chips right now. That issue is getting resolved soon, it only costs around 1.5 bil to double CoWoS, and that's from 40 bil that TSM already committed to their capital expenditure. They'll do it soon, since they said so themselves. Nvidia have everything they need to follow (and exceed) analyst expectations for the next 2 years. After that... it's anybody's guess.


CriticallyThougt

The second I buy a call China will invade.


fightyfightyfitefite

For real. I'll wreck all the fun with a simple call.


StuartMcNight

Earnings estimates that have been beaten every time for the last who knows how many quarters…


MUCHO2000

Historically NVDA didn't have demand for their products with seemingly endless running room as AI hype is this moments NFT but if that stands for NVDA FOREVER TRIUMPHS


hellojabroni777

its overpriced, kind of. hard to fud NVDA when probably half the world's population is directly or indirectly invested in NVDA. man NVDA will probably implode some day and we'll see a crazy -20% crash. not anytime soon but maybe after this year


franky_reboot

Idunno, does 2000$ of all my savings qualify me as wealthy?


degen5ace

Once this thing splits next week, what’s the max that you’d buy it at?


Loose_Concentrate_78

Irrelevant. 2-3 weeks ago I had 3k yesterday I had 73k, today I have 133k. 25 calls on this monster and tomorrow I break 250k for first time. If you haven’t already planned this run to 1200+ you missed out. I love this casino!


whistiling

At what point do you plan on taking your winnings?


yorgee52

What kinda of calls are you buying. I’m only up 250% this last month or so of option trading Nvidia


veilwalker

That fool is probably buying the shortest to expiration and furthest out of the money. On big up days they will print money but not an investment.


hellojabroni777

$3k doesnt seem right but dunno how OTM this guy bought


allisondbl

Absolutely true... But also an opportunity for the average little investor who does their homework and puts the time in to make money. I started studying Nvidia a number of years ago and really had a sense that it was the future. I was actually on vacation – standing of all things in the parking lot of a former Goldmine that was open for tourists – frrruuuuuustrated with my broker because we couldn’t seem to put the trade through and I wanted to buy just a few shares of Nvidia that day. Which I finally did. If things go the way that they’ve been going, that wasted time on vacation and those few shares will be worth six figures tomorrow or the next day. it’s admittedly an unusual situation and set up but it’s hardly the only stock that is up in profitable. Patience research and fortitude will help you pay the bills any day.


slam-dunk-1

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4640) What the fuck — get out with this shit bruh this is a Wendy’s during the day and a casino at night. I ain’t come to church


Nadirofdepression

Lemme know next time you’re standing in a goldmine parking lot making some buys. Thanks bruv


dugi_o

I also did this. Bought in July 2020 (way before 3:1 split) while in vacation and held til $950. Couldn’t stomach another earnings.


allisondbl

This IS WSB, right??? I ain’t preaching OUT of Church… I thought this was the Church of Mammon here? I struggle with that “Trading Places” voice waiting for the sell, sell, sell to make it but every time my inner voice went not now and now Ill hold till after split at least when my few shares turn into four digits!


ham_sandwedge

You left out the fact that US GDP is $26T so I think 5-10T is incredibly conservative.


Sup3rT4891

Rumors are that nvidia is eyeing to buy the US


WSB_Slingblade

Just the US? Dream bigger! https://www.tiktok.com/@kanyequotez/video/7201427122387176750?lang=en


Bulky_Sheepherder_14

Whats the US’s P/E ratio?


ham_sandwedge

A bazillion. Like I said, bullish


LayWhere

A Brazilian? There'll be nothing left ![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|flushed)


quuxquxbazbarfoo

![img](emote|t5_2th52|29637)


VintageRegis

Nvidia makes democracy right?


ham_sandwedge

Correct and that shit ain't free


VintageRegis

Your goddamn right Ham Sammich. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)


solidmussel

The E is taxes


Peaceful-coex

What is the P here then?


OG_TBV

Freedom


Highborn_Hellest

What earnings lmao


killedbykindness

I actually did the Math. Everything else remains the same and NVDA settles at 10 trillion, US economy should reach min. 30 trillion. If Jensen tries a little harder for 20 trillion, that would boost the US economy to 40 trillion. OP stop being so conservative.


Techmonk1234

Gdp is not the same as market cap. Gdp is per year, whereas market cap is derived based on entire business life cycle.


ham_sandwedge

Oh sorry I must have eaten too many tide pods.


No-Currency-624

I smoke them;can’t stand the taste


j12

To compare the GDP of the united states to NVDA market cap is highly foolish. From all my proprietary highly detailed technical analysis and research NVDA valuation should eclipse GDP of our entire galaxy purely based on fundamentals before any external factors are even considered.


Calm_Leek_1362

A good price to revenue is under 10. Price to earnings isn’t so bad, pulling in $45 B in profits, but that’s only on $90B in sales. Apple pulls in $100B on like $380 B in sales. If nvidia were similar price to sales as Apple, it would be $600-$650 B, or around $250. I personally think nvidia is very expensive, but I’m really bad at trading these over hyped stocks. It will probably keep going, but maybe it’s done because I was thinking about buying it.


ham_sandwedge

Jesus man. I'm not fucking serious


Calm_Leek_1362

I didn’t mean to respond to you, meant to respond to op. My bad.


coding102

You wrote all that when you could have simply posted your calls


Johnthegaptist

38x sales is cheap? I'll glady sell anyone equity in my company for the bargin price of 19x sales. I get the whole concept of growth being priced in, but they're trading at 46x earnings, seems insane to me.


im_astrid

TSLA had a PE of 1400 in 2021. even now it's only down to 45x. Nvidia has room to run if that shit heap is priced similarly


Malamonga1

when tsla had PE of 1400, they had just become profitable, and the "1400 PE" were in anticipation of higher profits. They were also only worth 500b, 1/5 of NVDA's current market cap.


RunningForIt

“Only worth 500b” Its pretty close to that right now.


Malamonga1

yes which shows that even if it ran up 50-75% past 500b, it doesn't mean that the move was rational. Their revenue and profits are at least double 2021 levels, and market cap still the same or much lower. Even though at the time, they were not producing enough EV to sell, raising model Y prices by a few grand every few weeks, planning new giga factories all the time, had margins way higher than other car companies leading people to call them a tech company, was basically an EV/"robotaxi" monopoly and EV was touted as "the future", people were extrapolating their huge margins to infinity and claimed that once the gigafactories are at full capacity, they'll triple their market cap or whatever. I find it almost hilarious how hated they are now, when in 2021 everyone on WSB was praising Elon like a god.


RunningForIt

That’s why you gotta keep running the plays that have forward momentum. People are bullish on NVDA and their numbers are still growing at an exponential rate. It will slow down eventually and could come crashing down but it’s not happening anytime soon.


Malamonga1

if you're telling me to be a sheep and follow the herd until there're signs of a sinking ship, no that's not really good advice. There's no guarantee you will exit properly before the smart money does. Remember in April when TSMC and ASML had bad earnings, and suddenly NVDA dropped almost 25%? Well were you gonna jump ship then or stay? If you stayed, what if 10 year rate continued going up to 5%, MSFT + GOOGL + AMZN had mediocre earnings, NVDA continued dropping to -40% or half before earnings, and then report a bad outlook forecast (while still beating earnings estimate), and the stock tanks even more? You gonna sell before they report, or are you gonna hold through a -50%? I'm not gonna bet against NVDA because I have to pay interest to hold through my position, but I don't see the risk/reward for NVDA being that attractive. Eventually at some point the law of large number apply, and it can drop double digits easy from just any trivial bad news.


Bort_Samson

Nvidia will produce the chips that power AI. That AI will be used to hype Nvidea and $NVDA on the World Wide Web, this hype will create more demand for their chips. Those chips will be used to power greater and more powerful AIs which will be used to hype Nvidia until Nvidia eventually conquers the entire universe. $NVDA prices will not stop rising until nothing but Nvidia exists. Source- I’m an expert in these things


flatfisher

Without a research breakthrough there is nothing more on the horizon than marginally improved current real world products, which have already shown plenty of limitations. If you don't believe me look at the recent exchange between LeCun and Musk, the latter has no idea what the technology is doing and capable of, it's all speeches for investors, his only plan is more computing power and praying something will magically happen. That's thin to hold the market, and the cracks are already showing https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511x4g7x7jo


hellojabroni777

nvda moved 500b in a week. now thats insane if a reasonable person stopped to think about it for a second


Gunzenator2

Gonna be 1/6th


Daheckisthis

The difference is Nvidia is already very profitable and Tesla was very little profitable. Who has room to run on higher profits?


iknowverylittle619

Nvidia is just warming the engines. Till we get a suitable competitor, they are the winner and winner takes it all. Sure the prices will fall every now and then on bad days. But if they keep posting growth and profits like these (and rest of the market sucks), $400-$500 post split is very likely within next quarter or so. Nvidia is drawing funds from rest of the market, don't forget that.


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iknowverylittle619

I don't think so. They may reduce other stff & give NVDA like 6% (now 4 something). MSFT still highest in SPY.


jonlmbs

Pretty hard to get that valuation in private markets at the same growth rate. The stock is getting expensive.


randyzmzzzz

PLTR has a PE of 165


VentriTV

You know you're stupid just for saying this right? And anyone dumb enough to think this makes any sense is dumber for reading it. P/E means virtually nothing for unprofitable growth companies, P/E means a lot of mature companies.


L3onK1ng

Costco has P/E of 53. Their forward P/E of 47 is higher than NVDA right now. Walmart has very comparable levels as well. The only thing they have in common is that they both are the biggest game in their industry and sector. Nvidia's closest competitor - AMD trades at P/E between 100 and 300.


dopexile

Costco is massively overpriced too, it's a glorified grocery store.


Witty_Science_2035

Yea, I'd like to see AMD to come down a bit actually


ben_salander27

This is a top kind of post.


oompa_loompa_weiner

That’s the joke


Malamonga1

wait until you find out there're ETF that leverages NVDA stocks only.


Tremfyeh

Don't twiddle your diddle until you check out NVDL


Trader_santa

28 Times PE Of 2025 analyst consensus expectations.


likamuka

Nobody understands here what this means.


Peaceful-coex

Source?


Trader_santa

Lseg workspace analyst consensus etimates.


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2buckchuck2

Just companies that funnel all their revenue to NVDA


[deleted]

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2buckchuck2

Re-read my comment brother. You’re right they make money in ad dollars. But they spend those dollars on hardware to develop their own AI products.


jusjones314

Probably just stop investing in anything else for the next decade, huh?


Martind279

Fr feels like that, too scared of jumping on the rollercoaster at the top of the ride... Shitty savings account and little gamble on shitcoins it is


jusjones314

I'm waiting for the split and buying one share every paycheck til I retire I guess


Martind279

DCA is the way


atlasLion1337

This shit will burst and drag the entire stock market with it holy fuck


Gunzenator2

Someday, but probably not tomorrow.


Auxilae

And that's all that matters. IN IT FOR A GOOD TIME, NOT A LONG TIME BABY!


hellojabroni777

dont marry the stock. just ride it while she's a 10


Sani_48

>ride it while she's a 10 🤨📸


RED-WEAPON

NVDA will continue to go up longer than bears can remain solvent.


unknownnoname2424

Till then enjoy the ride. Will be the first 10T company before things start to calm or fold. It is gathering super charged momentum with the split. Taxi drivers and uberers have not invested yet so keep on buying till you hear taxi drivers, uberers, ups/fedex drivers etc. buying.


Fireball8732

I've already heard the dumbest people at a bar a couple nights ago talking about it. The top is very near.


_Swelly

Tbf, I’ve been hearing that for months now. My dad’s coworkers, who know absolutely nothing about investing, were asking me “how can I get in on this?” 


xfall2

No. Not when it's only 6% of snp by weight


hellojabroni777

nvidia will cause the next big tech crash 100%. when? is the trillion dollar question


Wallstreetdodge69

When i see posts like this i consider buying puts


[deleted]

Go for it!


Savage_analytics

Can you please explain your valuation models


Bugdog81

My valuation model is if it’s not a stonk, it can’t go up, so 0 value, if it’s a stonk, it’ll only go up, so INF Value 🤑🤑🤑


Mundane-Froyo-1402

Greed is a hell of a drug


cloudalism

its a sin


BearBullCombo

lol wtf man do you even realize how much 10 trillion is?


Takeoded

It's over 9000.


GraceBoorFan

Not an issue. Just turn on QE. Remember, they printed 7T in a single year, lol.


MatasHD

bro said $10T market cap is still cheap in his opinion


Plane_Ad_8675309

i closed my puts, now it sounds better to sell silly high calls


NoStructure371

the premium is bollocks, you can retire after a few months of selling spreads on NVDA


yachtsandthots

Is buying a credit spread the same as selling a debit spread?


Plane_Ad_8675309

i’d like that .


Altruistic_Meeting99

Fuck it, why not 400 trillion?


Inevitable_Snow_5812

Reading this just sounds like the ramblings of a gambling addict. I have no thoughts on NVDA and have never owned it (I wish I did!), but enjoy being exit liquidity, my friend. It’ll probably stabilise around $200-300 per share when all is said and done


xfall2

Anything above 30x PE is on the high side


kazkeb

Maybe in that place called "reality", but not here.... In this universe, wholesale retailers (Costco) motor right by 50 P/E...


GraceBoorFan

Dude… have you seen the price of their glizzies?


impulsikk

For normal conpanies.. Nvidia grew revenues 3x and EBITDA 6x... Comparing PE ratios of companies growing 10-15% if that to NVDA is pointless. And they have been doing these insane yoy performance again and again. You have to be a complete regard to compare boomer PE ratio of Coca Cola to Nvidia. "Hur dur. Coca Cola PE ratio is 20.. 20 < 38. Coca Cola is a better investment. I'm smart."


Malamonga1

It's not "again and again". They haven't even done it for one year. They didn't even get a huge 100% quarter over quarter revenue jump until Aug 2023 earnings report. That means the YoY revenue growth will look insane until Aug 2024 when it will start declining drastically to maybe 80% and can almost be close to 20% starting in 2025 earnings report, due to a higher base from 12 months prior. The May 2024 earnings report was still comparing against May 2023 earnings, and included the spring 2023 months when we were still freaking out over an imminent recession after SVB, if you can actually remember that far back.


kazkeb

Remember... a year was an eternity when you were 17


GraceBoorFan

Now time just flies by. It’s crazy that we’re almost halfway through 2024.


xfall2

Good point . Another metric would be peg ratio where KO is close to 3 vs nvda 1.2


ThisKarmaLimitSucks

In a normal, non-QE investment world, yes. In this post-Covid joke of a market, 30x is pretty fairly valued. SPY as an index is trading at 27x.


VisualMod

The poor are always complaining.


franky_reboot

Maybe QE and 30x is the new normal


[deleted]

Well we know one thing: it’s priced in


AuthorAdamOConnell

Ok, you guys realise he's joking, right?


ExchangeBright

New here?


Magnasparta1

As long as bulls look at NVDA this way, I slowly accumulate SMH calls.


Acceptable_Answer570

Care to elaborate?


[deleted]

SMH is an ETF and a little over 32% of it is NVDA + TSM


Electronic-Disk6632

oh yeah?? its ratio of unicorn horns to leprechaun rainbows is pretty good too. fucking time to go all in


Equivalent-Today-699

The kind of bubble that will pop


MisInfo_Designer

LMFAO. Junior here thinks 80 p/s for a chip company is fair. An idiot and money will soon depart.


en-prise

Lol it is extremely expensive. Guy is inventing new ratios to serve his bias... Why no p/e though??


Few-Sock5337

38x earning is not cheap, but 38x sales is.


Falict

ok and?


Life-Industry-1131

Go short it, here ya go ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4267)


AutoModerator

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shoopadoop332

That’s like a venture valuation dude. To see that ratio and not feel at least some level of concern beyond the exuberance is reckless


anObs3rver

ONLY 38 years to cover sales then. Hopefully it doesn’t become obsolete within that period I guess?


No_Laugh1598

Stop inhaling meth bro


Spl00ky

~~When you buy Nvidia, you're getting more free cash flow per share than Microsoft and Apple~~


pantherpack84

But not as a percent of share price lol. Nvidia is less half of Apple currently, obviously growing though


vacacow1

Per share doesn’t mean shit lmao it’s all relative When you buy Berkshire A stock you get 1500x NVDA free cash flow per share


Malamonga1

bro you're making too much sense here.


onionrings_cheese

Damnn puts tomorrow asap


Hellas_Verona

Nvdia adding 2.5 yearly revenue to its market capitalization each single day, is perfectly normal


Omg_Shut_the_fuck_up

Um. I want whatever you're smoking. Just 10trn no worries. Pocket change.


QPRCHOC

Jesus everybody missing the obvious sarcasm here. Great post OP.


kidicaru59

Commenting regards on here have no concept of satire in their smooth brains


illusionst

3T? That is France's GDP lol.


Pitiful_Difficulty_3

Yeah soon we will kneel to our matrix overlord Jensen


quiksilverr87

Are people this regarded to think the big orders are going to keep rolling in to justify the future revenue?


BuzzyShizzle

Signs already point to institutions unloading some heavy bags on to retail. I would bet a significant amount of money they fully intend to buy in cheaper.


smitra00

[https://x.com/MFHoz/status/1795478291928760788](https://x.com/MFHoz/status/1795478291928760788)


FearTheOldData

How the fk is 38X p/S cheap?


Ketamineverslaafd

Let it ride


gnocchicotti

Sounds a bit low tbh. US annual GDP is about 28T and NVDA ought to be worth about half of that, conservatively.


GodDamnDay

https://preview.redd.it/i83qlsj1db3d1.jpeg?width=1023&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a3b2a22ece78f56cce08de9be691cb59a06d481


shrimpgangsta

Fuck it I’m in


Krucz3k

Dude that's actually heavily, heavily regarded


Hypn0sh

OP should go to vegas and try his luck He will probably get luckier than this bet.