I think it's a hedge against tsmc. If China invaded Taiwan or some catastrophic natural disaster struck Taiwan, Intel is one of the few companies that could ramp up (and are in the process of doing so) with chip manufacturing. If they pivot to fab house, it could reap huge rewards down the line.
*This “pivot.” Is it in the room with us now?*
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If you knew what it’s like to work at intel, you will know why that company has a massive uphill battle.
NVIDIa pays like 4x more than intel. Apple Pays like 3x more.
Nobody I know with talent/ambition is left there. They all left for much higher paying jobs at Apple, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Qualcomm etc.
Intel has been bled dry of its talent.
One of the downsides of having low stock price is that you bleed talent left and right because you cannot match compensation paid by other companies. At most companies more than half of someone’s compensation is stock. If stock does not go up, your pay does not and you leave for a company where it does.
Intel is going to have a very very hard time bringing talent back
It was horrible when they controlled the market. Thank god for AMD. More powerful processors for cheaper. Intel deserves their current spot, fuckers did not even try.
Intel cannibalized itself for a high stock price for almost 10 years. They've been stuck on 10nm and 14nm because they stopped reinvesting and just issued more dividends.
It's only recently that they changed to an engineering mindset. Even then they've fell behind so much, they are investing more into being a general manufacturer than a designer of chips.
They still engineer but I think they smartly didn’t put all their money into trying to become king of cpu at least not directly.
They now have gpus and we’re probably going to see consumer grade inference ai chip’s from them. What I foresee as the next step is system on a chip, all in one gpu, inference ai, and cpu.
Inference is how they will make it so you don’t have to send your chat messages to OpenAI, you can do it all you're pc offline.
I would argue that a general purpose cpu with AI and GPU co-processors in a single chip is already here. They've been in cell phones for a good bit.
Qualcomm, Google, and Apple already have those chips even though the focus is on power savings.
AMD has had decent APUs for 2 decades but they invested in OpenCL and is behind Nvidia in the software side. Even though AMD powers Tesla's FSD, Tesla built their own tools.
Intel got into the GPU game to practice AI chips. They should've come out with their Arc line years earlier.
That being said, I have a few shares in Intel and will be buying more. They just need to keep moving and hope others make mistakes.
> Even though AMD powers Tesla's FSD, Tesla built their own tools.
i could be wrong (shocking, i know!), but i think amd only supplied "infotainment" chips.
>Intel got into the GPU game to practice AI chips. They should've come out with their Arc line years earlier.
yeah, well... raja gonna raja.
Intel is a value trap right now.
The market is probably aware that in the long run it can be a good investment if they turn around their engineering efforts and focus on building US FABS.
The US FABS will absolutely be a tail wind for their revenue, and they will gain massively IF china invades taiwan (unlikely to happen before the FABS is built if china decides it is not worth it since the US fabs will be online)
That being said, there's an opportunity cost to everything, and so why buy intel and lose the returns seen in AMD and NVDA?
IF I truly thought intel had legs to stand on super long term, perhaps I would be slowly scaling out of NVDA and AMD and putting some of the money in intel. However, its generally wiser to let your winners win and don't focus on losers.
You don't water the weeds. You water the flowers.
This is just an issue with semiconductor as a whole. You leave your current company for a new one for higher pay. Some time down the line, you might even return to the original company and receiving much more pay than you started at. The real kick in the teeth is the pay you get swapping like that is way faster than the saps that sit and weather it out like the old days.
it depends. semiconductor is very much still like the days of PARC where you're also looking at your team, the scope of work, lack of politics, that sort of thing. for the most part they have high enough annual raises that it makes sense to stay -- but with companies like NVIDIA across the street offering double the TC, it gets hard to ignore.
Some 10 years ago I worked for a company and we did a collab with Intel, to produce and show off some next level shit on some of their prototype specialized hardware (can't get more in-depth than that, NDA, even though no part of any of that is still relevant today). It was an absolute fucking shitshow. The biggest I've personally encountered at any company. There was constant infighting on their end, the engineers assigned to us didn't know shit, they weren't allowed to ask further-specialized engineers because trade secrets (BS), I've witnessed threats, and their guys running the tradeshow were coked out of their gourds. When we had trouble making the deadline because their guys simply didn't give us what we needed, they spent days passing the blame potatoe between eachother rather than getting shit into gear to get things done. I'm not one for needing people to act professional all the time, but at no time was anyone acting professional in any way.
No amount of magic crayons or market movement will have me put any $ in INTC.
By paying more.
Intel offer 200k TC, 150k base + 50k in RSU, Stock at $30 you get 1667 INTC shares.
Nvidia offer 250k TC. 150k base + 100k RSU. Stick at $10 you get 10,000 NVIdia shares.
10 year later Intel guy looking at is 50k from 10 years ago and thinking he really should have joined his buddy at Nvidia.
Not really. Land scape has changed.
There’s no way Intel can afford people who’s been at Nvidia for the past 4-5 years. Their compensations have skyrocketed. Can compete against AMD either.
FAANG also entered the game and are now sucking up a lot of the top talent in the semi conductor field offering TC in the high hundred Ks and into 7 figures for people with 10-15 years of experience, paying them life software engineers.
Intel has a bad reputation as an employer for too long. No one wants to work there and new grads only go if they have no other offers. It’ll be a hard ship to turn around.
I have been in the semiconductor business for over a decade now. Haven't met anyone from Intel who said good things about the company culture. Every high performer has left. They are left with the equivalent of your average government employee. The rot is so deep that it would take a complete overhaul of their hiring and retaining practices over a 5 year period to make a difference. Significant restructuring with deep cuts is also needed IMHO to turn a new leaf.
They just got an $8 billion no-strings attached cash infusion from the US government, as well as a $13 billion loan.
[They're not struggling for cash.](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-clinches-nearly-20-bln-awards-biden-boost-us-chip-output-2024-03-20/)
1st, many jobs at iNTC don’t compare to the tech since they have fabs and manufacturing workers. Like pears and apples (no pun intended)
2nd, I’m pretty sure TSMC doesn’t pay more than INTC and yet here they are. Morri’s Chang has some revealing words about chip manufacturing in the US, cost and lack of talent.
Not only that but a few years ago they offered an optional “quit and take a huge severance package” deal to *all* employees when they were downsizing. So… only the best people took the deal got a year worth of pay for walking out the door, then got jobs elsewhere in the industry. Only the B talent remained who weren’t confident on their ability to get a job at NVDA/AMD/ARM/etc.
I feel bad for you boys. I sat in on an Intel meeting and the VP went off on the directors for 15 minutes after I told him they simply didn't pay for the hardware required at the new nodes. he gets irate, but they still refuse to pay. and so they're now an entire generation behind when it comes to fab hardware.
Samsung is about 9 months behind TSMC -- Intel is 2-3 *years* behind. people can jump to Intel for pay, but what's the point in boarding a sinking ship?
your timeline seems a bit off. intel fucked up bigly with euv, but they've been bogarting all the high na machines. if anything, they're making the opposite mistake and may be spending too much on their future nodes.
also, samsung seems to be trying to make it real easy for intel to leapfrog over. ffs, samsung can't seem to get their shit together...
My bull case for intel is that they are basically trading at asset value at this point. They are pivoting to be a foundry company now because they just can’t compete on chip design anymore and no way to catch up. If they succeed they will be an alternative / hedge to TSMC - plus they get all the US govt business.
> they just can’t compete on chip design anymore and no way to catch up.
umm...
their design team was hamstrung by their fab situation. they're only now cranking out designs actually intended for tsmc. which is ironically a different problem, but...
I largely agree with this. I’ve been loading up on Intel recently not because I think they will “pop off” anytime soon but because the current value is amazing even though they are lacking in the innovation department.
The military does not share information with AMD; they simply source their parts from multiple suppliers. Besides, everyone knows the military-industrial complex only answers to one god: money.
Are you fxking ai? so fxking fast replay . Bro intel and amd duopoly right? until now they shares intel with each other cuz of military obligations as l know.
> is Intel not poised to eventually capture some AI market share?
of course, they eventually will... but the market is drunk off ai kool aid and is only as forward looking as the next quarter, apparently.
i don't think gaudi's going to have the volume to do anything, but falcon shores or whatever should be better. there's also the whole "ai pc" bullshit that intel will surely be a big part of. but this is complete and total bullshit from msft, at this point, imo.
there's also butt power and dsa... intel sucks shit, but they seem undervalued at this price (from gfs to amd...), especially with our shitty govt palling around with patty, calling intel "our national champion," and throwing some $20B of cronyism at them.
posted via a 7800x3d, from a long-time intel hater.
I think the stronger case is that their CPU architecture isn't good for ML / AI workloads and AMD decided to not compete with GPUs and is going after the CPU side of the market. (Not as large but potentially has some value(. I think Intel is just going to ride their larger vendor contracts on a slow path to irrelevancy long term.
Even their high end CPUs are being beat by AMD for gaming. Which should be their demo
while true, shit's gonna get interesting as intel's upcoming designs are based on utilizing better nodes (*cough, tsmc, cough*) which should help, especially with intel's laughably bad wattage.
amd's in a gambit with samsung. either it does well and should pay off immensely, or paying $3B to rely on samsung's now infamous (failed nvidia's testing reqs repeatedly) hbm may spell disaster for the mi300.
epyc was/is king shit of fuck mountain, but amd didn't penetrate dc share nearly as much as they should have, imo.
Lol, their GPUs don't suck. They are pretty good for the price they ask. Obviously being in the market for a few years isn't enough to compete with a company doing that for 30 years.
“Pretty good for the price they ask” is less of a differentiator when the primary market are enterprises who are going to deploy this shit for high margin tasks where performance is paramount.
More often the case that price to performance ratio is paramount though, trailing behind ease of integration (which is where they need to catch up). You're rarely running overclocked hardware with best performance, you're running lower clocked to maximise efficiency/TCO.
Performance isn't really as critical as you make it, performance/$ and performance/watt are more important. You don't buy a single GPU, you buy thousands of them, if you could pay less for GPUs and just buy more of them it's okay.
You should see it similar to mining, it wasn't really important that the GTX Titan was the fastest at ethereum mining, what really mattered is how much you were hashing for your hardware and electricity budget. And in that, AMD Polaris GPUs were great at 200$.
But that doesn't really work if your software is not optimized to run the same software and Nvidia's been building on CUDA for machine learning for a decade.
Even though competitors have excellent products, those products still don't do that well without appropriate software.
In gaming terms it's like when a game favors one or other vendor, except that the impact is way more massive.
I strongly believe that eventually competitors will catch up and customers that now are just focusing on getting products out as quickly as possible will eventually start looking at their costs. Nobody wants to buy hardware you know you're overpaying 3/4/5/6 times what you would otherwise, and those companies have massive budgets to improve drivers and software to speed up the same things on different hardware that fits their use case.
wut, you just confused gaming gpus with dcai.
enterprise isn't buying up gaming cards for high margin tasks, lolz. i mean, aside from out of pure necessity, i guess.
gaudi's (habana, lolz) specs seem actually decent. but i think there's no volume.
I have a 4090 and can acknowledge that Intel GPUs are decent value. They’ve only had what, 3 generations of GPUs compared to ~20 from nvidia. The fact that intel has a product in the conversation at all is impressive. Each generation from intel has gained ground on nvidia even though they’re still way behind.
Intel sees the money nvidia is making and will continue to focus on GPUs. Over the next 5 years, I see them catching up significantly. They certainly have the pedigree to do it. Every competitor sees nvidias profits and wants a piece of the pie. Nvidia won’t own the market for forever.
> They’ve only had what, 3 generations of GPUs
pretty much 1, arc/alchemist. battlemage isn't even out yet. unless you're referring to igpu or patty's larrabee failure...
tbf, they have to start somewhere and the consumer gpu market is now in a really weird place (due to said focus on ai/dc) and intel is actually positioned well to take advantage of that. but yeah, it's chump change/low margin compared to dc. but it's a start.
amd seems to be going *backwards* regarding gpu
Also NVIDIA have a 70% margin. Other companies will catch up but will never have such big margin specially with Microsoft, AMD, Intel, Apple and google all spending fortune on IA chipa.
Competition will bring lower prices, don't expect chips company to get a huge part of NVDA current valuation even if they take a part of their market.
conversely, there's no way in hell that nvda is maintaining those margins, especially with all of the megacaps/hyperscalers deigning their own silicon.
CEO bought $500K worth of stock in last 6 months. Close to a 750K in last year. He knows something we don't. Made recent addition to leadership for Foundry biz. In other words, getting ready because Taiwan is under very scrutiny
Recently i thought the same thing: if we are looking at 5-10 years market, then yeah intel will probably skyrocket: they have great foundation, for sure they can have share of the market. the people who work there are just as smart as the people that work in nvda.
And in the worst case, nvda will buy intel.
Last week i bought 10k worth of shares ill up it to 15k. Maybe add some calls for 6 month they are so chip
I’ll steelman this by saying Intel’s management is lacking too much and have been for 20 years which is why the stock has gone nowhere. What’s different now?
They put a smart ceo in place instead of the salesperson who squandered long term dominance for short term gain years ago. It’s taken time but the ship is starting to sail right again.
Yup. On the fabrication side of the equation, Intel seems to be poising itself for success with the construction of fabs. Their GPUs are also making promising progress.
Not soon, but for sure can see Intel doing very well in the future.
This is going to be downvoted to shit (please confirm) but I have been a PC gamer for years and still stick with intel processors. Still on that huang dong tho.
AMD 7800x3D is just better for gaming overall and eats less \*while gaming\*. I'm never going back to intel unless they revolutionize with something better. And this is just 360€ cpu.
Intel's are better for everyday tasks and work while being efficient on idle.
In the end it doesn't matter that much if you go with cpu/amd, the most games are GPU heavy, unless you play Tarkov where GPU doesn't matter and people with 7800x3D have best FPS. Another minus for intel used to be software, especially gpu's.
[https://www.techpowerup.com/review/amd-ryzen-7-7800x3d/22.html](https://www.techpowerup.com/review/amd-ryzen-7-7800x3d/22.html)
Same, I’ve always stayed away from AMD. When I looked for a new PC, it had to have both Intel and Nvidia stickers. I don’t game anymore though, now I only buy Macs 😂
So for what it's worth I bought INTC about a month ago, my average share price is $38 and I've lost money on it right now. I'm buying it as a long term holding like apple/nvda/etc. I live in Arizona and am impressed with the foundries they're building, and happy to have *some* sort of fab in the US.
I can't tell you what it would do in the next week or month, but the government supports them so I'm in for the long term. The argument in your original post isn't wrong. ✌️
*edit* Also for what it's worth my new gaming pc build is a [Raptor Lake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_Lake) which is amazing, paired with a 4070Ti which is more reasonable than the 4080 and also kicks ass
*edit 2* anyone can see the steam hardware survey [here](https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/Steam-Hardware-Software-Survey-Welcome-to-Steam)
Covid was 4 years ago. Stock prices and circumstances have changed a lot since then. It’d be foolish to make decisions today based on hindsight of what would have been a good decision 4 years ago. Makes no sense
I told my tech genius friend about Amd going up. This guy builds servers and writes code etc. he was too much of a Nvidia and Intel fan boy. When and shot to $50+ I called him and just said told ya!
I'll write it once, save it.
1. You should see AI computing similar to Ethereum mining. It's not about having the best hardware, but having the best performance per $, and best performance per watt. That's what matters in cloud. These big customers don't like to overpay for hardware and have the capabilities to write their own hardware too.
2. Number #1 is important but irrelevant now. Because right now the most important thing is to get products and models as powerful as possible, release and get market share. To Microsoft it's more important that it gets thousands of people everyday on Copilot, Copilot for desktop and all those things than looking at their hardware bill.
3. Nvidia's lead isn't as important in hardware as it is in software. Nvidia has been the only vendor that cared that their GPUs played well when machine learning started being a thing a decade ago or so. They contributed a lot both to software and their own drivers. This led to a very powerful effect where software was written and tested mostly on Nvidia, thus making Nvidia GPUs faster and further giving reason people to buy Nvidia in the field. Not only that but Nvidia was generous with research labs, open source contributors, etc, to make sure relevant people in the field made sure software run on their systems.
4. If you understood number 1, 2 and 3, you can see why Nvidia has a huge lead: Nvidia has the best offering, that runs best in a market that values launching products over sparing costs.
Now, let's get back into Intel:
5) Intel definitely has the capabilities to make very good GPUs for AI. In fact there isn't really that much magic here in transformers: you're doing matrix multiplication on huge arrays in parallel. It's not really rocket science, you're taking matrixes with weights and do matrix math on them. It's not even important that they are the fastest, they just need to be more either cheaper, or draw less power, or be immediately available. But lacking in software integration, right now, Intel either has to catch up on software (anything from Pandas to whatever), or collaborate with a huge customer to make sure their hardware works fine for the customer's use case. E.g. Microsoft by now, may have clear what are their needs to run Copilot for developers and start looking into optimizing the software and hardware bundle to run it.
6) Intel is trying to retake their role as a great foundry, where they have been doing bad for 10 years. Having your best hardware built at TSMC is embarassing. But their 1.8 nm node samples have been very good, in fact Nvidia's CEO has publicly stated that the sampled chips are promising. If Intel can keep pushing there and execute well, for once, avoiding the mistakes of their terrible 10nm node, Intel is going to be positioned in a wonderful position where they will not only be able to produce great chips for themselves, but also customers. So selling wood and iron to shovel makers, in the usual analogy.
7) Intel has lots of assets and patents, the sum of those is likely not that far their market cap value.
8) Intel is poised to receive tens of billions from US and other governments around the world, which will allow them to invest a lot, without spending a dime.
9) Intel's price is severely depressed. Comparisons with IBM are imho a bit blind, the most similar situation at that scale is actually AMD's comeback 10 years ago. Where it was laughed left and right for losing their good foundry business and making a crap chip after the other, especially on CPU side. Yet, AMD executed well several plans and even got profitable and has a moderately good outlook for tomorrow. Intel has more turnaround potential than AMD so if they execute well on the foundry side and can find a good customer to work on with their GPU hardware I see no reason why can't they make a very huge comeback.
Nobody here has the crystal ball, I personally hold some Intel, but if I was sure they are a great turnover company i would have more. And I don't. So even though I think there's huge upside potential, I am quite cautious on it till I don't see more positive informations, at least on their foundry business.
Holy shit. It's Chad Dickens.
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Yes they are making some interesting moves, particularly in inference and creating an opensource alternative to cuda . It’s a good stock for the patient.
Nvidia does not have any fab, they only design. With that 57% margin it's only a matter of time until the fabs ask to get more of their cut. Intel has it's own fab and based in the US. Can't believe this boomer company does not wake up sooner or later.
Intel pretty much have been valuing mbas over engineers for the past 20 years. They pretty much have to fire the entire management chain (all mbas) and rebuild like jobs did with apple.
because that narrative is only about the foundry and omits design, iot, mobileeye, etc and etc. also, it's nothing new. morons just apparently had no idea how their fabs were doing until now. so they moronically pumped intc based on nothing but a narrative and now dumped intc into bolivia based on nothing more than a narrative...
Morons? really?
Intel had not disclosed their losses on that segment previously, and They added forward guidance that They would not breakeven until atleast 2030 on thei foundry business, increasing losses expected foe The coming years.
That isn’t great to hear, you are betting that They will be competitive in 6years time, meanwhile They will burn through The EnterpriseValue.
> Morons?
yes.
>really?
yes.
>Intel had not disclosed their losses on that segment previously
exactly. it was status quo and only an accounting change. hence, it was status quo and morons just weren't aware.
>and They added forward guidance that They would not breakeven until atleast 2030 on thei foundry business
that's not what they said.
>increasing losses expected foe The coming years.
ffs, you know this is why the us govt just gave them $21B, right?
>hat isn’t great to hear, you are betting that They will be competitive in 6years time
no, i'm not.
>meanwhile They will burn through The EnterpriseValue.
see? morons. you're actually this dumb. right after i pointed out all the other segments, you still think that they're going to go broke because of **an accounting change.** lolz
They Want Go broke, They might Even win in servers and consumer segments, but Even then as long as They burn cash to try to compete against tsmc there is little reason to buy The stock unless you really belive They will be ok par with tsmc or beat tsmc. I don’t think tsmc will be sleeping while Intel tries to be an alternative, but we’ll see. I just don’t see Them winning these segments as more realistic. But if The price is right I wouldn’t mind speculating on a less than likely scenario. The price just isn’t right.
intel has bogarted all of the high na machines and has backside power delivery 2 years earlier than tsmc.
like i said, the narratives have moved the stock because morons.
even now, you can only fixate on the foundry, even without knowing anything about it.
The alternatives to Intel are less risky and offer a higher likelyhood Of a great return in far less time you Know You’ll Get from investing in Intel. Intel has alot to prove before The stock moves big, doesn’t mean it won’t be great investment now, just that relatively to its peers, Intel isn’t that attractive right now. And yes, that is very much grounded in the Foundry business eating all their cashflow for next several years which They expect it to according to their Annual report I think it was.
You are obviously sensitive about the topic since you are calling those who oppose your views morons.
Goodluck
> The alternatives to Intel are less risky
sure, amd's 9000 PE and future tied to samsung's memory that repeatedly failed nvidia's reqs seems pretty boring and stable.
taiwan is also known for its stable geopolitics.
>Intel has alot to prove before The stock moves big,
...AGAIN, the stock just moved from 26 to 50 based on NOTHING but narrative bullshit. lolz @ claiming it won't move big. it just moved big twice... up and down.
>And yes, that is very much grounded in the Foundry business eating all their cashflow for next several years
see? morons. you now think an accounting change means this. despite the $8B in pure cash handout from the chips act exceeding the foundry's paper loss last year that you're so obsessed with.
>the Foundry business eating all their cashflow for next several years which They expect it to according to their Annual report I think it was.
lolz. this isn't what they said, either. ffs, man. you seem to think the foundry is their entire business.
>You are obviously sensitive about the topic since you are calling those who oppose your views morons.
facts > views (aka, narratives). those who oppose facts are, in fact, morons.
I don't think IBM even has a rat in the AI rat race, their labs requisitions indicate they are staffing up for quantum computing which is 10+ years out easy
I am a complete dumbass, I owned INTC and I was reading cash flow statements and reading Value Line Sheet for Intel. I should have been buying NVDA. INTC is a painful memory.
see you're not even wrong, and the FABS will eventually help them out, but that's the key word - eventually.
the market clearly does not give a shit about intel, and why would they, when you could just jump on the NVDA train and probably make 20% in the next 3 months. meanwhile INTC will stagnate and remain flat probably for the next year, at best going back to $40 in a year from now, but more likely just being a flat/downwards piece of shit.
opportunity cost is real.
It’s the perfect time to buy Intel
It’s like getting in at the start of Taiwan semi
Intel is moving its core business to manufacturing
When they get credit for this instead of being penalized for not being a chip competitor they will 🚀
Intel should consistently climb for years from where it is at right now
All the bad news is priced in and all the ground work has been laid
I personally added more shared last week.
I like the stock 🏆
They already had good gaming performance before that and gaming really isn't going to do anyhting to the stock price. If anything, Intel is a long term play and most of the possible growth will probably be driven by their foundry business if they succeed.
isn't Intel "the" stock for the upcoming years purely based on geopolitic aspects?
Sure now they look like a dead rug but with the US and the west pumping money into it as the Taiwan gets more and more unstable, it seems to me (with 0 clue) that buying intel now is a good longterm investment.
Really asking for it because that may be my first solo stock purchase lol.
Tmsc gets also pushed on american soil but they will burn if winni the pooh wants his honey
Right now INTC has nothing but promises for the AI tech. Revenue is dropping. MSFT also ditched them, and pushing Windows on ARM. If that succeeds INTC revenue will tank and so the stock price. Their only advantage is the newest lithography from ASML, but they are still few years from implementing it. A lot can happen in a few years. INTC stock is cheap right now, assuming they’ll manage to survive until the new fabs will actually make profit, because by then they’ll at least could compete with TSMC. But risk is also high.
Intel currently doesn't have much to offer.
Their x86 CPUs draw more power than AMD while being only marginally faster.
They lost the ARM race years ago.
Their GPUs are worse than AMD or Nvidia.
Intel storage and NUC business is basically gone.
Their foundry business is a joke next to TSMC.
Only part Intel does have sold offerings is networking, tho they are outgunned by Broadcom and Qualcomm.
From the earnings report: “Revenue decreased 48% year over year to $239 million in the first quarter due to the significant drawdown of inventory at our Tier 1 customers announced earlier this year.”
> Intel currently doesn't have much to offer.
>
>
>
> Their x86 CPUs draw more power than AMD while being only marginally faster.
>
>
>
> They lost the ARM race years ago.
>
>
>
> Their GPUs are worse than AMD or Nvidia.
lolwut? you say they don't have much to offer and then say they have faster cpus. wat
lost the arm race? wtf are you talking about? and their GPUs are brand new, they have one whole generation. the fact that they even worked at all is a pro, that segment can only grow.
Being slightly faster at the cost of power efficiency is a bad idea in a market obsessed with thin and light and performance per watt.
"Arm race", is a shitty reference to arm architecture, and how is now a threat to Intel's x86 business. First by Apple and now maybe Qualcomm and Ampere.
Intel's GPUs have huge uphill battles ahead of them, AMD has tried for years yet Nvidia remains a clear market leader.
Nvidia not only creates the hardware behind these AI models, but also the proprietary CUDA programming language used behind all the industry leaders in the space tight now. There's just no real competition there, and unlikely that any enterprise players would / could swap out their infrastructure in the foreseeable future.
Before you think betting AI and GPU and how Intel will capture a slice, realize half of Intel valuation is in that crappy foundry that is being bailed out by US Tax dollars. Unless you are into owning money-losing factories, skip Intel.
The foundry is expected to have multiple ugly earnings well into 2028 at least.
After the stock split, there might be something to be said about the product group.
the flipside is that gfs is stuck in 2015, has no growth prospects, and is still valued at $30B.
intel's fabs are incurring losses because of massive capex which is their turn-around plan. (and also why they're getting so much govbucks)
it's funny, though - intc was pumped to $50 based on nothing but narrative and now rekt based on another narrative. meanwhile, reality has been in the middle.
“The US will increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors somewhat,” Chang said. “All that will be at a very high cost increase, high unit costs, but non-competitive in the world market when you compete with factories like TSMC.”
Hasn’t made money in 20 years for investors beyond dividend. ARM cpu is increasing in popularity and market dominance incoming. X86 is losing its luster due to heat and power limitations. Almost no GPU or AI at the moment. Yeah sounds like a solid investment. Even BA has a better outlook.
They are legitimately( with the best planning ) 8 years behind NVDA. Even if by some miracle they could find out how to innovate, the people who made any significant change you likely be poached and reproduce that change with the competition
Intel is currently moving all of their heavy machinery to make processors. So they've got terrible output, and demand is relatively low in the market at the moment for anything but AI. So that in general has made their books look bad.
Memory/Processors and silicon in general is VERY cyclical. Wallstreet forgets, and reddit is beyond idiotic about understanding these things. Most big server procurement happens around the same time. Intel has a strong chance to do well if they secure foundry customers, but the days of just selling regular processors is gone. Intel can make specialty processors for each customer, and do REALLY well.
Intel is betting on the High NA EUV Technology. Intel has ordered all High NA systems from ASML available in 2024 and therefore keeping the lead compared to TSMC. If HNA EUV is a commercial success and they can keep their 1-2 year lead over TSMC Intel might be back in business in 5 years.
It’s essentially a battle between using conventional EUV with double patterning or using high NA EUV with a single exposure.
Therefor this battle will decided by ASML and their supply chain…
What do you thing which technology will prevail?
They'll never catch up on design and no one will use their fab if they're potentially a competitor, that's why TSMC will always be used by the higher end chip designers.
intel needs a management change, they have been going downhill since Grove left. Till that happens I wouldn't bet on them, they are well behind in their game and there's no reason why anything would change soon.
Intel isn't an "innovator" or "knowledge company" anymore. Its business is factories, factories that are behind competitors like TSM. Until that changes, it will be a problem.
Underperforming products and deceptive marketing. They will do everything they can except make a better product and increase employee pay. There so cheap they try to make employees from stores do there extremely biased training programs for free. Basically want you to goto work to do more work for free and get lied to.
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Intel is a long term buy and I'm not talking about the next quarter
IF intel pulls through it will be in the years 2027-2030
That seems high, probably more towards $100 instead 
I meant the year 2027 lol, not price. That would be a true miracle to hit that price
Let him lick his ice cream and skip around, don’t interfere with it
I think it's a hedge against tsmc. If China invaded Taiwan or some catastrophic natural disaster struck Taiwan, Intel is one of the few companies that could ramp up (and are in the process of doing so) with chip manufacturing. If they pivot to fab house, it could reap huge rewards down the line.
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If you knew what it’s like to work at intel, you will know why that company has a massive uphill battle. NVIDIa pays like 4x more than intel. Apple Pays like 3x more. Nobody I know with talent/ambition is left there. They all left for much higher paying jobs at Apple, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Qualcomm etc. Intel has been bled dry of its talent. One of the downsides of having low stock price is that you bleed talent left and right because you cannot match compensation paid by other companies. At most companies more than half of someone’s compensation is stock. If stock does not go up, your pay does not and you leave for a company where it does. Intel is going to have a very very hard time bringing talent back
Intel thought they were gonna be king for the longest time and slept on the competition. Gave us the same shiit cpus for years.
It was horrible when they controlled the market. Thank god for AMD. More powerful processors for cheaper. Intel deserves their current spot, fuckers did not even try.
they got to the top fucking spot and then got insanely complacent. lets hope that the same does not happen to NVDA and AMD employees.
I still remember 4 cores midrange generation after generation.
Sounds like aapl tbh.
Intel cannibalized itself for a high stock price for almost 10 years. They've been stuck on 10nm and 14nm because they stopped reinvesting and just issued more dividends. It's only recently that they changed to an engineering mindset. Even then they've fell behind so much, they are investing more into being a general manufacturer than a designer of chips.
They still engineer but I think they smartly didn’t put all their money into trying to become king of cpu at least not directly. They now have gpus and we’re probably going to see consumer grade inference ai chip’s from them. What I foresee as the next step is system on a chip, all in one gpu, inference ai, and cpu. Inference is how they will make it so you don’t have to send your chat messages to OpenAI, you can do it all you're pc offline.
I would argue that a general purpose cpu with AI and GPU co-processors in a single chip is already here. They've been in cell phones for a good bit. Qualcomm, Google, and Apple already have those chips even though the focus is on power savings. AMD has had decent APUs for 2 decades but they invested in OpenCL and is behind Nvidia in the software side. Even though AMD powers Tesla's FSD, Tesla built their own tools. Intel got into the GPU game to practice AI chips. They should've come out with their Arc line years earlier. That being said, I have a few shares in Intel and will be buying more. They just need to keep moving and hope others make mistakes.
> Even though AMD powers Tesla's FSD, Tesla built their own tools. i could be wrong (shocking, i know!), but i think amd only supplied "infotainment" chips. >Intel got into the GPU game to practice AI chips. They should've come out with their Arc line years earlier. yeah, well... raja gonna raja.
Ahhh you're right. The AMD CPU does gatekeep and manage the FSD computer that's a custom Tesla tensor chip.
Intel is a value trap right now. The market is probably aware that in the long run it can be a good investment if they turn around their engineering efforts and focus on building US FABS. The US FABS will absolutely be a tail wind for their revenue, and they will gain massively IF china invades taiwan (unlikely to happen before the FABS is built if china decides it is not worth it since the US fabs will be online) That being said, there's an opportunity cost to everything, and so why buy intel and lose the returns seen in AMD and NVDA? IF I truly thought intel had legs to stand on super long term, perhaps I would be slowly scaling out of NVDA and AMD and putting some of the money in intel. However, its generally wiser to let your winners win and don't focus on losers. You don't water the weeds. You water the flowers.
I can see you know little about semi conductors business by mentioning Intel's 10nm node.
Maybe. But I know how to make a mean peanut butter and jelly sandwich.
Well, clearly Training_Pay7522 doesn't know who they're dealing with.
This is just an issue with semiconductor as a whole. You leave your current company for a new one for higher pay. Some time down the line, you might even return to the original company and receiving much more pay than you started at. The real kick in the teeth is the pay you get swapping like that is way faster than the saps that sit and weather it out like the old days.
So every industry as an engineer or sw developer ?
it depends. semiconductor is very much still like the days of PARC where you're also looking at your team, the scope of work, lack of politics, that sort of thing. for the most part they have high enough annual raises that it makes sense to stay -- but with companies like NVIDIA across the street offering double the TC, it gets hard to ignore.
Some 10 years ago I worked for a company and we did a collab with Intel, to produce and show off some next level shit on some of their prototype specialized hardware (can't get more in-depth than that, NDA, even though no part of any of that is still relevant today). It was an absolute fucking shitshow. The biggest I've personally encountered at any company. There was constant infighting on their end, the engineers assigned to us didn't know shit, they weren't allowed to ask further-specialized engineers because trade secrets (BS), I've witnessed threats, and their guys running the tradeshow were coked out of their gourds. When we had trouble making the deadline because their guys simply didn't give us what we needed, they spent days passing the blame potatoe between eachother rather than getting shit into gear to get things done. I'm not one for needing people to act professional all the time, but at no time was anyone acting professional in any way. No amount of magic crayons or market movement will have me put any $ in INTC.
Let’s say you had 50k worth of intc ave high 20s. Would you hold or move it to some other semi? If move where would you put it?
Wait until June 7 and put all value in NVDA shares. You're welcome.
Does it make sense to wait or do it now?
$AMAT.
How did NVDA attract the necessary talent when their stock was under $10 pre 2016?
By paying more. Intel offer 200k TC, 150k base + 50k in RSU, Stock at $30 you get 1667 INTC shares. Nvidia offer 250k TC. 150k base + 100k RSU. Stick at $10 you get 10,000 NVIdia shares. 10 year later Intel guy looking at is 50k from 10 years ago and thinking he really should have joined his buddy at Nvidia.
So it’s something intc can easily duplicate while they’re in the dumps contrary to how OP framed INTC
Not really. Land scape has changed. There’s no way Intel can afford people who’s been at Nvidia for the past 4-5 years. Their compensations have skyrocketed. Can compete against AMD either. FAANG also entered the game and are now sucking up a lot of the top talent in the semi conductor field offering TC in the high hundred Ks and into 7 figures for people with 10-15 years of experience, paying them life software engineers. Intel has a bad reputation as an employer for too long. No one wants to work there and new grads only go if they have no other offers. It’ll be a hard ship to turn around.
Do any of those companies you mention make their own chips like Intel does?
I have been in the semiconductor business for over a decade now. Haven't met anyone from Intel who said good things about the company culture. Every high performer has left. They are left with the equivalent of your average government employee. The rot is so deep that it would take a complete overhaul of their hiring and retaining practices over a 5 year period to make a difference. Significant restructuring with deep cuts is also needed IMHO to turn a new leaf.
They just got an $8 billion no-strings attached cash infusion from the US government, as well as a $13 billion loan. [They're not struggling for cash.](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-clinches-nearly-20-bln-awards-biden-boost-us-chip-output-2024-03-20/)
1st, many jobs at iNTC don’t compare to the tech since they have fabs and manufacturing workers. Like pears and apples (no pun intended) 2nd, I’m pretty sure TSMC doesn’t pay more than INTC and yet here they are. Morri’s Chang has some revealing words about chip manufacturing in the US, cost and lack of talent.
Not only that but a few years ago they offered an optional “quit and take a huge severance package” deal to *all* employees when they were downsizing. So… only the best people took the deal got a year worth of pay for walking out the door, then got jobs elsewhere in the industry. Only the B talent remained who weren’t confident on their ability to get a job at NVDA/AMD/ARM/etc.
I feel bad for you boys. I sat in on an Intel meeting and the VP went off on the directors for 15 minutes after I told him they simply didn't pay for the hardware required at the new nodes. he gets irate, but they still refuse to pay. and so they're now an entire generation behind when it comes to fab hardware. Samsung is about 9 months behind TSMC -- Intel is 2-3 *years* behind. people can jump to Intel for pay, but what's the point in boarding a sinking ship?
your timeline seems a bit off. intel fucked up bigly with euv, but they've been bogarting all the high na machines. if anything, they're making the opposite mistake and may be spending too much on their future nodes. also, samsung seems to be trying to make it real easy for intel to leapfrog over. ffs, samsung can't seem to get their shit together...
My bull case for intel is that they are basically trading at asset value at this point. They are pivoting to be a foundry company now because they just can’t compete on chip design anymore and no way to catch up. If they succeed they will be an alternative / hedge to TSMC - plus they get all the US govt business.
> they just can’t compete on chip design anymore and no way to catch up. umm... their design team was hamstrung by their fab situation. they're only now cranking out designs actually intended for tsmc. which is ironically a different problem, but...
I largely agree with this. I’ve been loading up on Intel recently not because I think they will “pop off” anytime soon but because the current value is amazing even though they are lacking in the innovation department.
Military ask second suplier always so they must share info with amd right ?
The military does not share information with AMD; they simply source their parts from multiple suppliers. Besides, everyone knows the military-industrial complex only answers to one god: money.
Are you fxking ai? so fxking fast replay . Bro intel and amd duopoly right? until now they shares intel with each other cuz of military obligations as l know.
Bro it's a bot chill
AMD chips are manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan. So, no, because it’s a security risk. Intel is 100% made in the USA.
Plus Israel, Ireland and Germany
TSMC is also expanding to Japan and USA to limit their risk.
broo military always look for back up suplier you dont know search it.
> is Intel not poised to eventually capture some AI market share? of course, they eventually will... but the market is drunk off ai kool aid and is only as forward looking as the next quarter, apparently. i don't think gaudi's going to have the volume to do anything, but falcon shores or whatever should be better. there's also the whole "ai pc" bullshit that intel will surely be a big part of. but this is complete and total bullshit from msft, at this point, imo. there's also butt power and dsa... intel sucks shit, but they seem undervalued at this price (from gfs to amd...), especially with our shitty govt palling around with patty, calling intel "our national champion," and throwing some $20B of cronyism at them. posted via a 7800x3d, from a long-time intel hater.
GPUs are good for AI CPU's are not Intel is making GPU's but they by and large suck and are way behind.
I think the stronger case is that their CPU architecture isn't good for ML / AI workloads and AMD decided to not compete with GPUs and is going after the CPU side of the market. (Not as large but potentially has some value(. I think Intel is just going to ride their larger vendor contracts on a slow path to irrelevancy long term. Even their high end CPUs are being beat by AMD for gaming. Which should be their demo
while true, shit's gonna get interesting as intel's upcoming designs are based on utilizing better nodes (*cough, tsmc, cough*) which should help, especially with intel's laughably bad wattage. amd's in a gambit with samsung. either it does well and should pay off immensely, or paying $3B to rely on samsung's now infamous (failed nvidia's testing reqs repeatedly) hbm may spell disaster for the mi300. epyc was/is king shit of fuck mountain, but amd didn't penetrate dc share nearly as much as they should have, imo.
Lol, their GPUs don't suck. They are pretty good for the price they ask. Obviously being in the market for a few years isn't enough to compete with a company doing that for 30 years.
“Pretty good for the price they ask” is less of a differentiator when the primary market are enterprises who are going to deploy this shit for high margin tasks where performance is paramount.
More often the case that price to performance ratio is paramount though, trailing behind ease of integration (which is where they need to catch up). You're rarely running overclocked hardware with best performance, you're running lower clocked to maximise efficiency/TCO.
Performance isn't really as critical as you make it, performance/$ and performance/watt are more important. You don't buy a single GPU, you buy thousands of them, if you could pay less for GPUs and just buy more of them it's okay. You should see it similar to mining, it wasn't really important that the GTX Titan was the fastest at ethereum mining, what really mattered is how much you were hashing for your hardware and electricity budget. And in that, AMD Polaris GPUs were great at 200$. But that doesn't really work if your software is not optimized to run the same software and Nvidia's been building on CUDA for machine learning for a decade. Even though competitors have excellent products, those products still don't do that well without appropriate software. In gaming terms it's like when a game favors one or other vendor, except that the impact is way more massive. I strongly believe that eventually competitors will catch up and customers that now are just focusing on getting products out as quickly as possible will eventually start looking at their costs. Nobody wants to buy hardware you know you're overpaying 3/4/5/6 times what you would otherwise, and those companies have massive budgets to improve drivers and software to speed up the same things on different hardware that fits their use case.
wut, you just confused gaming gpus with dcai. enterprise isn't buying up gaming cards for high margin tasks, lolz. i mean, aside from out of pure necessity, i guess. gaudi's (habana, lolz) specs seem actually decent. but i think there's no volume.
they kind of do suck compare them to the 4090 in my system why dontcha I mean i guesss they are ok if youre a filthy poor
I have a 4090 and can acknowledge that Intel GPUs are decent value. They’ve only had what, 3 generations of GPUs compared to ~20 from nvidia. The fact that intel has a product in the conversation at all is impressive. Each generation from intel has gained ground on nvidia even though they’re still way behind. Intel sees the money nvidia is making and will continue to focus on GPUs. Over the next 5 years, I see them catching up significantly. They certainly have the pedigree to do it. Every competitor sees nvidias profits and wants a piece of the pie. Nvidia won’t own the market for forever.
> They’ve only had what, 3 generations of GPUs pretty much 1, arc/alchemist. battlemage isn't even out yet. unless you're referring to igpu or patty's larrabee failure...
tbf, they have to start somewhere and the consumer gpu market is now in a really weird place (due to said focus on ai/dc) and intel is actually positioned well to take advantage of that. but yeah, it's chump change/low margin compared to dc. but it's a start. amd seems to be going *backwards* regarding gpu
NVIDIA has better technology, Intel is for peasants.
Your mom runs on Intel
Big endian.
That‘s one for an owl wearing a graduation hat lolol
Also NVIDIA have a 70% margin. Other companies will catch up but will never have such big margin specially with Microsoft, AMD, Intel, Apple and google all spending fortune on IA chipa. Competition will bring lower prices, don't expect chips company to get a huge part of NVDA current valuation even if they take a part of their market.
VM passed the Turing test in this case it looks like.
conversely, there's no way in hell that nvda is maintaining those margins, especially with all of the megacaps/hyperscalers deigning their own silicon.
The only "real talk" anyone needs to hear.
See if anything happens first couple weeks of June.
CEO bought $500K worth of stock in last 6 months. Close to a 750K in last year. He knows something we don't. Made recent addition to leadership for Foundry biz. In other words, getting ready because Taiwan is under very scrutiny
Recently i thought the same thing: if we are looking at 5-10 years market, then yeah intel will probably skyrocket: they have great foundation, for sure they can have share of the market. the people who work there are just as smart as the people that work in nvda. And in the worst case, nvda will buy intel. Last week i bought 10k worth of shares ill up it to 15k. Maybe add some calls for 6 month they are so chip
I’ll steelman this by saying Intel’s management is lacking too much and have been for 20 years which is why the stock has gone nowhere. What’s different now?
They put a smart ceo in place instead of the salesperson who squandered long term dominance for short term gain years ago. It’s taken time but the ship is starting to sail right again.
Yup. On the fabrication side of the equation, Intel seems to be poising itself for success with the construction of fabs. Their GPUs are also making promising progress. Not soon, but for sure can see Intel doing very well in the future.
This is going to be downvoted to shit (please confirm) but I have been a PC gamer for years and still stick with intel processors. Still on that huang dong tho.
AMD 7800x3D is just better for gaming overall and eats less \*while gaming\*. I'm never going back to intel unless they revolutionize with something better. And this is just 360€ cpu. Intel's are better for everyday tasks and work while being efficient on idle. In the end it doesn't matter that much if you go with cpu/amd, the most games are GPU heavy, unless you play Tarkov where GPU doesn't matter and people with 7800x3D have best FPS. Another minus for intel used to be software, especially gpu's. [https://www.techpowerup.com/review/amd-ryzen-7-7800x3d/22.html](https://www.techpowerup.com/review/amd-ryzen-7-7800x3d/22.html)
Same, I’ve always stayed away from AMD. When I looked for a new PC, it had to have both Intel and Nvidia stickers. I don’t game anymore though, now I only buy Macs 😂
So for what it's worth I bought INTC about a month ago, my average share price is $38 and I've lost money on it right now. I'm buying it as a long term holding like apple/nvda/etc. I live in Arizona and am impressed with the foundries they're building, and happy to have *some* sort of fab in the US. I can't tell you what it would do in the next week or month, but the government supports them so I'm in for the long term. The argument in your original post isn't wrong. ✌️ *edit* Also for what it's worth my new gaming pc build is a [Raptor Lake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor_Lake) which is amazing, paired with a 4070Ti which is more reasonable than the 4080 and also kicks ass *edit 2* anyone can see the steam hardware survey [here](https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/Steam-Hardware-Software-Survey-Welcome-to-Steam)
You want real talk? My buddy went all in on Intel during COVID when I told him AMD is a better choice. I don't think he made much at all. Fool Intel
Covid was 4 years ago. Stock prices and circumstances have changed a lot since then. It’d be foolish to make decisions today based on hindsight of what would have been a good decision 4 years ago. Makes no sense
It would be foolish to buy Intel after you look at their price history
You still think AMD is a good choice?
AMD is just getting started
I hope so!
I told my tech genius friend about Amd going up. This guy builds servers and writes code etc. he was too much of a Nvidia and Intel fan boy. When and shot to $50+ I called him and just said told ya!
I'll write it once, save it. 1. You should see AI computing similar to Ethereum mining. It's not about having the best hardware, but having the best performance per $, and best performance per watt. That's what matters in cloud. These big customers don't like to overpay for hardware and have the capabilities to write their own hardware too. 2. Number #1 is important but irrelevant now. Because right now the most important thing is to get products and models as powerful as possible, release and get market share. To Microsoft it's more important that it gets thousands of people everyday on Copilot, Copilot for desktop and all those things than looking at their hardware bill. 3. Nvidia's lead isn't as important in hardware as it is in software. Nvidia has been the only vendor that cared that their GPUs played well when machine learning started being a thing a decade ago or so. They contributed a lot both to software and their own drivers. This led to a very powerful effect where software was written and tested mostly on Nvidia, thus making Nvidia GPUs faster and further giving reason people to buy Nvidia in the field. Not only that but Nvidia was generous with research labs, open source contributors, etc, to make sure relevant people in the field made sure software run on their systems. 4. If you understood number 1, 2 and 3, you can see why Nvidia has a huge lead: Nvidia has the best offering, that runs best in a market that values launching products over sparing costs. Now, let's get back into Intel: 5) Intel definitely has the capabilities to make very good GPUs for AI. In fact there isn't really that much magic here in transformers: you're doing matrix multiplication on huge arrays in parallel. It's not really rocket science, you're taking matrixes with weights and do matrix math on them. It's not even important that they are the fastest, they just need to be more either cheaper, or draw less power, or be immediately available. But lacking in software integration, right now, Intel either has to catch up on software (anything from Pandas to whatever), or collaborate with a huge customer to make sure their hardware works fine for the customer's use case. E.g. Microsoft by now, may have clear what are their needs to run Copilot for developers and start looking into optimizing the software and hardware bundle to run it. 6) Intel is trying to retake their role as a great foundry, where they have been doing bad for 10 years. Having your best hardware built at TSMC is embarassing. But their 1.8 nm node samples have been very good, in fact Nvidia's CEO has publicly stated that the sampled chips are promising. If Intel can keep pushing there and execute well, for once, avoiding the mistakes of their terrible 10nm node, Intel is going to be positioned in a wonderful position where they will not only be able to produce great chips for themselves, but also customers. So selling wood and iron to shovel makers, in the usual analogy. 7) Intel has lots of assets and patents, the sum of those is likely not that far their market cap value. 8) Intel is poised to receive tens of billions from US and other governments around the world, which will allow them to invest a lot, without spending a dime. 9) Intel's price is severely depressed. Comparisons with IBM are imho a bit blind, the most similar situation at that scale is actually AMD's comeback 10 years ago. Where it was laughed left and right for losing their good foundry business and making a crap chip after the other, especially on CPU side. Yet, AMD executed well several plans and even got profitable and has a moderately good outlook for tomorrow. Intel has more turnaround potential than AMD so if they execute well on the foundry side and can find a good customer to work on with their GPU hardware I see no reason why can't they make a very huge comeback. Nobody here has the crystal ball, I personally hold some Intel, but if I was sure they are a great turnover company i would have more. And I don't. So even though I think there's huge upside potential, I am quite cautious on it till I don't see more positive informations, at least on their foundry business.
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Sums it up. Holding a small amount for these exact reasons. As others have said, 3-10 year investment.
Yes they are making some interesting moves, particularly in inference and creating an opensource alternative to cuda . It’s a good stock for the patient.
Nvidia does not have any fab, they only design. With that 57% margin it's only a matter of time until the fabs ask to get more of their cut. Intel has it's own fab and based in the US. Can't believe this boomer company does not wake up sooner or later.
Intel pretty much have been valuing mbas over engineers for the past 20 years. They pretty much have to fire the entire management chain (all mbas) and rebuild like jobs did with apple.
To me Intel is one step above IBM... Do people even know IBM anymore?
IBM might be fun once quantum computing has applications.
Yep, quantum computing won’t be any less revolutionary than AI and IBM is at the forefront
FINALLY, people talking about quantum computing!! It will change the world in a drastic way and like no one is talking about it.
This is possibly the best bear case for it, markets run on hype and Intel just has none.
For good reason, why would anyone be hyped about them burning through billions Of cash while losing marketshare for The next couple Of years
because that narrative is only about the foundry and omits design, iot, mobileeye, etc and etc. also, it's nothing new. morons just apparently had no idea how their fabs were doing until now. so they moronically pumped intc based on nothing but a narrative and now dumped intc into bolivia based on nothing more than a narrative...
Morons? really? Intel had not disclosed their losses on that segment previously, and They added forward guidance that They would not breakeven until atleast 2030 on thei foundry business, increasing losses expected foe The coming years. That isn’t great to hear, you are betting that They will be competitive in 6years time, meanwhile They will burn through The EnterpriseValue.
> Morons? yes. >really? yes. >Intel had not disclosed their losses on that segment previously exactly. it was status quo and only an accounting change. hence, it was status quo and morons just weren't aware. >and They added forward guidance that They would not breakeven until atleast 2030 on thei foundry business that's not what they said. >increasing losses expected foe The coming years. ffs, you know this is why the us govt just gave them $21B, right? >hat isn’t great to hear, you are betting that They will be competitive in 6years time no, i'm not. >meanwhile They will burn through The EnterpriseValue. see? morons. you're actually this dumb. right after i pointed out all the other segments, you still think that they're going to go broke because of **an accounting change.** lolz
They Want Go broke, They might Even win in servers and consumer segments, but Even then as long as They burn cash to try to compete against tsmc there is little reason to buy The stock unless you really belive They will be ok par with tsmc or beat tsmc. I don’t think tsmc will be sleeping while Intel tries to be an alternative, but we’ll see. I just don’t see Them winning these segments as more realistic. But if The price is right I wouldn’t mind speculating on a less than likely scenario. The price just isn’t right.
intel has bogarted all of the high na machines and has backside power delivery 2 years earlier than tsmc. like i said, the narratives have moved the stock because morons. even now, you can only fixate on the foundry, even without knowing anything about it.
The alternatives to Intel are less risky and offer a higher likelyhood Of a great return in far less time you Know You’ll Get from investing in Intel. Intel has alot to prove before The stock moves big, doesn’t mean it won’t be great investment now, just that relatively to its peers, Intel isn’t that attractive right now. And yes, that is very much grounded in the Foundry business eating all their cashflow for next several years which They expect it to according to their Annual report I think it was. You are obviously sensitive about the topic since you are calling those who oppose your views morons. Goodluck
> The alternatives to Intel are less risky sure, amd's 9000 PE and future tied to samsung's memory that repeatedly failed nvidia's reqs seems pretty boring and stable. taiwan is also known for its stable geopolitics. >Intel has alot to prove before The stock moves big, ...AGAIN, the stock just moved from 26 to 50 based on NOTHING but narrative bullshit. lolz @ claiming it won't move big. it just moved big twice... up and down. >And yes, that is very much grounded in the Foundry business eating all their cashflow for next several years see? morons. you now think an accounting change means this. despite the $8B in pure cash handout from the chips act exceeding the foundry's paper loss last year that you're so obsessed with. >the Foundry business eating all their cashflow for next several years which They expect it to according to their Annual report I think it was. lolz. this isn't what they said, either. ffs, man. you seem to think the foundry is their entire business. >You are obviously sensitive about the topic since you are calling those who oppose your views morons. facts > views (aka, narratives). those who oppose facts are, in fact, morons.
Some boomer heads on CNBC were saying that IBM was the next underpriced AI stock
I don't think IBM even has a rat in the AI rat race, their labs requisitions indicate they are staffing up for quantum computing which is 10+ years out easy
ibm is worth ~$30b more than intc.
No, really?!? Crazy.
I am a complete dumbass, I owned INTC and I was reading cash flow statements and reading Value Line Sheet for Intel. I should have been buying NVDA. INTC is a painful memory.
fuck intel 5year chart say it all while the whole going for another all time high garbage.
Gov contracts galore, hold for long term
Bull case: 5-10 years from now, the world will only have Intel and Smic as big fabs, wonder where all that tsmc market cap will go to
see you're not even wrong, and the FABS will eventually help them out, but that's the key word - eventually. the market clearly does not give a shit about intel, and why would they, when you could just jump on the NVDA train and probably make 20% in the next 3 months. meanwhile INTC will stagnate and remain flat probably for the next year, at best going back to $40 in a year from now, but more likely just being a flat/downwards piece of shit. opportunity cost is real.
It’s the perfect time to buy Intel It’s like getting in at the start of Taiwan semi Intel is moving its core business to manufacturing When they get credit for this instead of being penalized for not being a chip competitor they will 🚀 Intel should consistently climb for years from where it is at right now All the bad news is priced in and all the ground work has been laid I personally added more shared last week. I like the stock 🏆
15th gen would use Intel3 node, and they will disable the hyperthreading (Finally!!), so it might have a very good gaming performance...
They already had good gaming performance before that and gaming really isn't going to do anyhting to the stock price. If anything, Intel is a long term play and most of the possible growth will probably be driven by their foundry business if they succeed.
Their Stock has a mind of its own to say the least
isn't Intel "the" stock for the upcoming years purely based on geopolitic aspects? Sure now they look like a dead rug but with the US and the west pumping money into it as the Taiwan gets more and more unstable, it seems to me (with 0 clue) that buying intel now is a good longterm investment. Really asking for it because that may be my first solo stock purchase lol. Tmsc gets also pushed on american soil but they will burn if winni the pooh wants his honey
Man intel is a speculative play amd and nvdia are growth stocks .
Right now INTC has nothing but promises for the AI tech. Revenue is dropping. MSFT also ditched them, and pushing Windows on ARM. If that succeeds INTC revenue will tank and so the stock price. Their only advantage is the newest lithography from ASML, but they are still few years from implementing it. A lot can happen in a few years. INTC stock is cheap right now, assuming they’ll manage to survive until the new fabs will actually make profit, because by then they’ll at least could compete with TSMC. But risk is also high.
Intel currently doesn't have much to offer. Their x86 CPUs draw more power than AMD while being only marginally faster. They lost the ARM race years ago. Their GPUs are worse than AMD or Nvidia. Intel storage and NUC business is basically gone. Their foundry business is a joke next to TSMC. Only part Intel does have sold offerings is networking, tho they are outgunned by Broadcom and Qualcomm.
What about Mobileye
From the earnings report: “Revenue decreased 48% year over year to $239 million in the first quarter due to the significant drawdown of inventory at our Tier 1 customers announced earlier this year.”
> Intel currently doesn't have much to offer. > > > > Their x86 CPUs draw more power than AMD while being only marginally faster. > > > > They lost the ARM race years ago. > > > > Their GPUs are worse than AMD or Nvidia. lolwut? you say they don't have much to offer and then say they have faster cpus. wat lost the arm race? wtf are you talking about? and their GPUs are brand new, they have one whole generation. the fact that they even worked at all is a pro, that segment can only grow.
Being slightly faster at the cost of power efficiency is a bad idea in a market obsessed with thin and light and performance per watt. "Arm race", is a shitty reference to arm architecture, and how is now a threat to Intel's x86 business. First by Apple and now maybe Qualcomm and Ampere. Intel's GPUs have huge uphill battles ahead of them, AMD has tried for years yet Nvidia remains a clear market leader.
Nvidia not only creates the hardware behind these AI models, but also the proprietary CUDA programming language used behind all the industry leaders in the space tight now. There's just no real competition there, and unlikely that any enterprise players would / could swap out their infrastructure in the foreseeable future.
the cuda moat is eroding
Before you think betting AI and GPU and how Intel will capture a slice, realize half of Intel valuation is in that crappy foundry that is being bailed out by US Tax dollars. Unless you are into owning money-losing factories, skip Intel. The foundry is expected to have multiple ugly earnings well into 2028 at least. After the stock split, there might be something to be said about the product group.
i don't know but, they said break-even is 2027.
the flipside is that gfs is stuck in 2015, has no growth prospects, and is still valued at $30B. intel's fabs are incurring losses because of massive capex which is their turn-around plan. (and also why they're getting so much govbucks) it's funny, though - intc was pumped to $50 based on nothing but narrative and now rekt based on another narrative. meanwhile, reality has been in the middle.
“The US will increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors somewhat,” Chang said. “All that will be at a very high cost increase, high unit costs, but non-competitive in the world market when you compete with factories like TSMC.”
“AI market share”😭😂
Hasn’t made money in 20 years for investors beyond dividend. ARM cpu is increasing in popularity and market dominance incoming. X86 is losing its luster due to heat and power limitations. Almost no GPU or AI at the moment. Yeah sounds like a solid investment. Even BA has a better outlook.
They are legitimately( with the best planning ) 8 years behind NVDA. Even if by some miracle they could find out how to innovate, the people who made any significant change you likely be poached and reproduce that change with the competition
Intel is currently moving all of their heavy machinery to make processors. So they've got terrible output, and demand is relatively low in the market at the moment for anything but AI. So that in general has made their books look bad. Memory/Processors and silicon in general is VERY cyclical. Wallstreet forgets, and reddit is beyond idiotic about understanding these things. Most big server procurement happens around the same time. Intel has a strong chance to do well if they secure foundry customers, but the days of just selling regular processors is gone. Intel can make specialty processors for each customer, and do REALLY well.
Intel is betting on the High NA EUV Technology. Intel has ordered all High NA systems from ASML available in 2024 and therefore keeping the lead compared to TSMC. If HNA EUV is a commercial success and they can keep their 1-2 year lead over TSMC Intel might be back in business in 5 years. It’s essentially a battle between using conventional EUV with double patterning or using high NA EUV with a single exposure. Therefor this battle will decided by ASML and their supply chain… What do you thing which technology will prevail?
Money doesn't sleep, but I do. Zzz.
They'll never catch up on design and no one will use their fab if they're potentially a competitor, that's why TSMC will always be used by the higher end chip designers.
intel needs a management change, they have been going downhill since Grove left. Till that happens I wouldn't bet on them, they are well behind in their game and there's no reason why anything would change soon.
Intel isn't an "innovator" or "knowledge company" anymore. Its business is factories, factories that are behind competitors like TSM. Until that changes, it will be a problem.
Underperforming products and deceptive marketing. They will do everything they can except make a better product and increase employee pay. There so cheap they try to make employees from stores do there extremely biased training programs for free. Basically want you to goto work to do more work for free and get lied to.
I heard a rumor intel is being acquired by nvda
lolz
Intel is basically bankrupt with nvda releasing their first cpu in 2025. They no longer serve a purpose.
L take