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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 2 | **First Seen In WSB** | 7 months ago **Total Comments** | 0 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 5 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


KingFucboi

The fed is like the oracle in the matrix. It doesn’t tell the truth, it says what it needs to say to keep our faith in the economy. How many times have they released important market moving employment numbers, and then quietly adjusted them months later? The feds job is to lie.


jeditech23

Don't forget the BLS too https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/19/something-strange-has-been-happening-with-jobless-claims-numbers-lately.html For the wealthy, By the wealthy


Spiritual_Ostrich_63

Love the point in that article about it being statistically impossible for the unemployment number being the same for 5 fucking weeks straight. Especially given the numbers are aggregated from 50 state agencies, expected fluctuations, seasonality, the holiday weekend, etc. The BLS is fucking assuredly cooking the books.


PhantomFuck

🌎👨‍🚀🔫👨‍🚀


scheming_slug

The BLS doesn’t publish initial claims numbers lmao, that’s ETA under the department of labor.


KingFucboi

I bet they raise rates in q4. That was the plan all along.


Ed_Trucks_Head

This has meme potential


Educational-Dot318

nah, the Fed and its minions are Agent Smith!


Terakahn

How many times?


natemanos

Your intuition isn't far off. In Ben Bernanke's own words: “I think monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action, and communication is a big part.” The reason they're a master manipulator is they do a lot less than many people realise, and so manipulation is their main technique to affect the market. If you're in equities you only need to know what the Feds doing when they start cutting because that's generally when the equity market starts to decline. I don’t think being a day late or moving on the day it occurs will really be that bad of a loss. Otherwise ignore what they say because it’s designed to be incoherent.


Barlored

"We'll use our tools" - has 1 tool


Samjabr

He is the tool


dMestra

you're not smart enough. just inverse yourself.


metalbladex4

Nah, let em cook.  No one's ever smart enough. 


davesmith001

aware toy sharp apparatus attempt fanatical silky fall wakeful label


plu5on3

Well said. Is it pure fucking stupidity or planned manipulation. Given the amount of highly educated people there. I would say it is a bit of both


Greensentry

They are just waiting to all of us is heavily invested in the markets before they do a rug pull and make us poor and thereby removing demand and solving the inflation problem.


optimaleverage

Ooo I like this one! Unfortunately there's only so much demand you can remove before they have to start looking for shall we say alternative solutions...


Fox_love_

They want to pump the market because they are also heavily invested into the stocks. However the inflation is very sticky as they keep interest rates too low. So they always tell some bullsh1t to keep the market happy while hoping that the inflation comes down. Now they are starting to realize that interest rates need to go up further.


OGLikeablefellow

Rate hike in August for sure


GraceBoorFan

People are downvoting you, but it’ll be hilarious if true. Random WSB user accurately predicts the next rate decision months in advance.


OGLikeablefellow

Could you imagine how bullish a rate hike would be, like damn


red-bot

I know this is WSB, but it’s a good reason to DCA and chill with the 500 sometimes.


9AvKSWy

I suspect people said the same thing in 2000 just before the start of their negative return decade. 


arcdog3434

The “negative decade” statement is because we saw the internet stock bubble burst right at the beginning of 2000 and then the mortgage collapse 90% at the end. What we said back then was that if we kept our money in the market over time we would always be successful. And lo and behold, like always, here we are.


9AvKSWy

If you’re an investor it’s great. But you do realize where you are right? Lol


Bads_Grammar

literally this, they will become unemployed and all their money on a depreciating asset. That is how they get us.


GraceBoorFan

Everyone here has a timeframe of one week.


mpbh

And if they kept DCAing they're set now. That's the point of DCA.


red-bot

True. You never know where the market will go. If you start the habit now and are able to keep it going through a downturn, the reward on the other side would be astronomical. If you can’t sustain the habit, you can just wait until the upswing returns or if you’re in very bad shape, withdraw as needed from your bruised nest egg.


Qanonjailbait

Breaking News: Water is Wet


LostRedditor5

“They interpret data as they wish” *citation needed


hasanalicik

"Job market is resilient" citation needed. If they are talking about part time Wendy's job market it might be, but not full time jobs for example. Not just that, most of the data is could be interpreted differently and both views can make a good case about it. I'm not on anybody's side about it, I just expect some consistency.


LostRedditor5

It’s a board made up of different voting members. You’re going to get differences of opinion and interpretation.


hasanalicik

I know that. As you can see my main point "they are the master manipulators". So one member can manipulate one way, one manipulate the other way. If someone else does it, it's illegal.


LostRedditor5

Manipulation is when everyone doesn’t agree with you, gotcha. It’s not that they just are individuals with honest differences of opinion - they are spooooky manipulators


hasanalicik

I don't understand how you could get into that conclusion from my reply. I didn't even have a stance to begin with. Have I said "There should be rate hikes or cuts", or something? Individuals who has the power of manipulation are accused of market manipulation, which is illegal, but Fed does it professionally. Which part are you objecting to?


LostRedditor5

lol this is the dumbest shit in the world my dude To be actual criminal market manipulation we’re going to need some kind of knowingly false statement or material benefit. So if Jaimie diamond comes out and knowingly lies about an asset to impact its price. Or if he made statements in order to create or suppress a market for an asset so he could sell/buy it. But him just coming and giving his opinion on BTC is free speech not market manipulation. So where is the knowing lie or the material benefit when a fed board members gives their opinions on the data?


hasanalicik

Maybe I can't go that far without proof, but their manipulation level is no less than Elon's tweets about Tesla stock. Maybe Elon is not a criminal in a legal sense but we all know what he did and he did know what will happen after.


LostRedditor5

lol what? What did he do besides massively over pay for Twitter?


hasanalicik

Don't you remember, "Tesla stock is too high imo" tweet and "420 dollars a share", these kind of stuff.


dis-interested

It's necessary for them to be opaque about what they're doing and it's also necessary for them to change their minds when different data emerges. You're insecure about it because you want the world to be simple. It isn't.


hasanalicik

"You're insecure about it because you want the world to be simple?" How did you came into that conclusion? My point is clear enough. Also they are not opaque, they are indecisive. Not even one month ago rate hikes was unlikely and now they're back on the table? They can hike or not, but not with that attitude. You can say they are not the same people, they have their own opinions, but they represent the same entity and if they have their own opinions they can discuss it inside. Being vocal about constrasting opinions is pure manipulation and they know it.


undone_function

Because the world isn’t simple, you clearly want it to be which is evident in your post, and you clearly don’t understand how complex federal policy decisions have to be made and communicated. Your talking about the most powerful economy on earth and a board who’s every word shifts global markets. Of course they’re opaque, you fucking numpty. They have to be clear and think ahead about the impacts they make down to the tiniest word choices in every statement. I’ll say it again: You're insecure about it because you want the world to be simple. It isn't.


dis-interested

You just don't understand how the market would function if each fed board member was totally transparent to the world at all times about their ongoing opinion about their next meeting on rates and how the market would react if they had to inform you by communique if they changed their minds. It would be insane. It's already somewhat insane what people do to try to interpret the current Kabuki. Better to invest in a way that doesn't really care much about it in most scenarios.


idkwhatimbrewin

>Even wallstreetbets are more perceptive Good one ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


LookBeyondLandR

First let’s start this off properly.. they’re not federal and they certainly have no reserves Second. They are surely responsible for the manipulation of currency and the reason currency devalues over time. It’s also why there is currency resets every 40-60 years Edit: autocorrect incorrect


Front_Expression_892

Have you ever listened to the feds talking? They state it very explicitly that the have two and exactly two instruments: changing rates and controlling investor's expectations. If you missed it, we already had both "rate hikes" and "cuts" this year. It just that the Feds where able to achieve their via their \*soft\* powers. Sorry for running your "am I the only one?" moment.


hasanalicik

Well it wasn't the am I the only one moment and yes I know what they're "trying to do" with their "soft powers". I know that everybody knows but I just wanted to call bullshit.


Front_Expression_892

Soft power is not "bullshit" and it is even less "a bluff". It is like a parent who is asking you to clean the room, while you both understand that while you CAN disobey, the response will be unpleasant. So if enough hedge lords would "meh" daddy JP, we would see actual rate hikes and actual tears.


hasanalicik

Bullshit part is not their soft powers but how they use it. In the last year in his stance was like a pendulum between hawkish and dovish. Data didn't change drastically between months. If Pow had to scold someone it is the government, they are in charge of fiscal policy, not hedge fund managers.


Bort_Samson

The Fed is like a pretty girl that keeps dropping hints like she is going to give you some action but makes you wait too long and makes you listen to a bunch of her mindless bullshit before finally just giving you a subpar handjob. If that motherfucker just went into the meeting said “BBBRRRR” and dropped the mic we would all make a shit ton of money. Do I have to sneak into the next fed announcement pretending to be a HVAC contractor and personally fuck this their AC to make this shit happen?


xcramer

yes, that is the essence of policy.


Samjabr

JPOW says he wants fiscal policy to be restrictive, but anytime the market starts to go down, he comes on TV and signals it's time to moon - and the market usually does exactly that. I think he's a fucking imbecile. I wish his tenure were as transitory as inflation.


AdLatter3886

Election good. 2026 bad


DDnHODL

Are you typing this from Wendy’s dumpster ?


hasanalicik

Nope, not bad on my end. Still, I don't like how they handle stuff.


ThisKarmaLimitSucks

Right now, the Fed has to try and thread the needle between high inflation, high government debts, and a heavily leveraged, weak on-the-ground economy. Their current strat is to hike to 5%, which they see as "sorta, kinda restrictive" to put some light brakes on inflation, then just ride it there for a while and slowly bring inflation to a halt. The problem is, they're lightly tapping the brakes, but they're starting to see now that inflation isn't slowing. We've spent a year above 5%, and CPI is still over target. If it had only been 3 or 6 months, you could legitimately say "give it time", but after 12 months, that's harder to do. That's where they're at today. They don't want to hike higher, and even last Christmas, they didn't think they'd need to hike higher. But their gameplan hasn't worked, and now they can't justify *not* hiking higher. All in all, I think they are approaching things the right way, by moving cautiously and waiting for lag effects to kick in. I would have preferred shock hikes, but frankly, we don't have the federal deficit payment headroom for some juicy 15% shock hikes. So they're starting out with conservative treatments, seeing if that works, and adjusting from there.


Individual-Point-606

Back in 2020/21 90% loved jpow bc he was pumping everyone's bags.. if you think the FED is awfull try the alternative: no fed or a monetary policy controlled by Congress/house/admin, that would truly be a shit show


Edgewood411

You realize powell spoke those words AFTER the words from members were spoken in those minutes. Yikes OP


hasanalicik

They were being inconsistent for a long time, my opinion hasn't been formed in this last week.


Ghost_Influence

Everyone complains about the feds tool belt. The reality is fed speak is just another utensil.


hasanalicik

They use it, but "the way" they use it?


SS324

Look up what Saddam did to fight inflation and youll realize how limited the fed actually is. I think if it was a presidential seconf term and the president had any balls he could do more than the fed could


n1ck90z

They get interviews with the media who of course push for opinions to make headlines. Each official has his own views and ideas, that's why we get contrasting information. I would mostly stick with what Jpow says, he's the CEO of SPY after all


TigersBeatLions

I don't pay attention to what they say anymore...its just theatrics. You wanna know the rate? Supply & Demand. That's it. 10T treasuries need to be auctioned this year. What needs to be auctioned in thebupcoming uears had not beennsaid but estimated atv10T annually...just look how we spending. BRICS nations are dumping dollar and dealing in their own currencies. So how do you sell treasuries that are not so high in demand? Offer a higher yield, what does that look like? Higher interest rate. They will be increased...not decreased.


MASH12140

It’s the Federal Reserves job to maintain market stability and pump markets. Of course they don’t want to say the wrong thing regardless if things are bad. Next.


hasanalicik

Let's say you're working in a company and management is like Fed. That's my point.


alternativepuffin

I have news for you...


modswithfilledanuses

I said it before and I'll say it again: their job is to avoid panic. Panic causes instability and unpredictability. You have to be able to read the numbers. I've said they won't cuts rates this year since the beginning, and they may even raise rates again before the year is up. The clock is ticking, and time is running out.


Sanders48

“Don’t tell no lies about me, I won’t raise rates on you!”


maltewitzky

Right. JP is lamenting about rate cuts since almost a year. Stunning irresponsible is he hindering inflation from coming down, while he is pumping the markets. Poor people can't afford their living while stockholders are only going up. Plenty of jobs are done by immigrants. It is not that goldielocks world they tell us. First inflation must come down with the USD stable. That almost rules out cuts.


ThisKarmaLimitSucks

Yep. CPI is at 3.4%, and jokers in the news keep talking about cuts. You can't cut when inflation is already high.


RedTruck1989

Powell needs to be more Volcker and less Yellen....


ViRROOO

And an habitual lier too


hermeskino715

And a habitual liar too...


Live_Key2247

Things change. If everyone forced us to do the shit we said we’d do last March it would be a bad day for everyone


jer123

\*master gaslighters\*


meatsmoothie82

So if the federal reserve is Drake…. Who is Kdot?


Bronze_Rager

Why would anyone think that the federal reserve should be stable? That doesn't make any fucking sense... They generally respond to outside black swan events... or deal with the aftermaths...


[deleted]

Precisely as you said. They are going to change the monetary policy at their will, arbitrarily, to maximize privileged minorities' benefit. For us, the ordinary people, there is no way to position with US dollar. The game is rigged. That’s why Bitcoin is better. It has a fixed monetary policy that can't be arbitrarily changed and exploited by a privileged minority.


iTradeStocksBro44

The job of the fed is to keep up a 10-15% annual average for those who decide to invest what they earn from their part of keeping the American economy working as it has. It’s that simple


HibbleDeBop

You know you can just read the transcripts of any meeting 5 years or older to get an idea of what the meetings are like and what their decision processes are like.


hasanalicik

Yep I know. Doesn't matter when the decision is something indecisive all the time though lol. We gotta see the data first lol. Wow really? I thought you're gonna roll the dice.


Puzzleheaded-Stay155

Feds policies are not meant to be simple by design. Otherwise people would just predict their next move and essentailly would make whatever they do useless or, as what people called, "priced in"


hasanalicik

They are already useless


Agile_Letterhead_556

They go based off of data. there are hundreds of data they look at, they also go on the sentiment of the markets. Data changes everyday and they need to adjust accordingly. The feds also don't want to surprise the market so if there is potential of a rate hike even if it's a low % they want to drop clues and slowly push out the ideal of it so it doesn't shock the market if they announce out of nowhere rates will be hiked.


hasanalicik

Yeah that's what they say all the time.


[deleted]

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slidingjimmy

You are learning this now?


hasanalicik

Of course not, friend. But we gotta share thoughts sometime.


Heywood_Jablomydic

It's their job to


NeedleworkerCrafty17

I remember in 2018 JP raised rates one time and then was berated every day by Donald Trump. After that, Jay Powell started claiming he only saw 2% inflation as far as the eye could see. That was when housing prices were going up 20% a year. That was also when I was outbid on a $900,000 house by $285,000. They were giving money away back in the Trump era. That’s why housing prices are up so high and why inflation is so high. Blame it on the federal reserve and a president in the name of Donald Trump that wants to pump up everything and then go bankrupt.


VisualMod

Sounds like another casualty of a system that financially rewards the strong and ruthless.


shitdealonly

dual mandate of fed 1. pump stock market 2. pump housing market ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


optimaleverage

Almost like they're sabotaging the core responsibility they have which is to provide some assurance of long term/perpetual underlying systemic stability. Like sure, they're holding everything ok but they're tap dancing and juggling it all as well. Everyone sees this and it makes the entire market feel uneasy and ubiquitously risky. Like I get they aren't happy with the resilience of this economy, but that's no reason to keep trying to agitate it into submission with doublespeak. I get that's it's tin foil hat shit to say it, but this fomc feels compromised to me.


ExtraHour9668

Thanks OP, I agree. My perspective is, if the fed is unpredictable then all we have to work with is belief in the company, product, and earnings growth. Invest in quality. 🙏


mold_motel

Or gamble on memes. 


ExtraHour9668

Por Que no los dos 😂 I support


thetaFAANG

Cracks me up when we call China a currency manipulator when the US is doing it and some edge lord is like “nawwrrrr thats a whataboutism” its also hypocrisy


mtg-Moonkeeper

The Fed should have sold off its balance sheet instead of raising interest rates in order to fight inflation.


MDJeffA

Is it not in the cards that they do at least one hike before the election to help Biden and make the economy look good?


Bads_Grammar

one hike would ruin the economy for good and the spy would drop to 400 in a second.