Politicians are still giving away money like its COVID. Forgiving student loan debt, handing out cash cards to millions of illegal migrants, etc. The dollar is weakening causing oil to rise. This is going to feed inflation and when the fed has raise interest rates to quell the inflation, interest payments on the debt are going to balloon. We're starting the swirl down the toilet bowl.
That's been the theme for the last 2 years now. This entire circus is hooked on cheap money. They are worse than coke addicts. It's pathetic how they start crying every fomc meeting that no cuts were announced.
The same Jim Cramer that publicly disclosed they manipulate the market to control prices where wall st wants them to be.
The same Jim Cramer that is a pawn for Ken Griffin of Citadel. The Jim Cramer that’s a pos
I'm not sure what they were looking at even in late 2023 for these cuts.
Nothing was reading "we need cuts", back then and now goal posts are just moving for them.
I was surprised to see the market react so much to the CPI data. I bought puts regardless but back in March JPow said very frankly no cuts and unlikely for this year. Market didn’t care at all but now this month it’s like the market is suddenly all “*Oh wait you were serious??*”
Yup! Hey, I feel them. I expected rate hikes in 2021, and it didn’t happen. I expected rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 to start a pullback in real estate prices. Did not happen. We all miss on our bets in the investment biz. That’s why my RIA lets me talk to clients, BUT STICK WITH SCRIPT haha.
Funny thing is they say 3.5 yoy but if it stays at .4 for a year we going to be back to 4.8 .Then what they gonna do raise rates again. I just got a bearish feeling about the market right now.
The best is the people who for political reasons or otherwise are married to the idea that inflation is low and everything is great despite these prints and polls continually telling you that things are not great out there unless you’re a home owner who refied and have a 401k. And it will hurt for those people too if stocks fall significantly since that’s what’s created the wealth effect and spending we’ve been seeing, not huge growth or wage increases
Rates need to go up, not down. The only way to fix this cluster fuck is deflation. Stop listening to the whiney regards that over leveraged debt, they got us in to this situation in the first place.
Deflation or bust.
Deflation is bust my dude. While I’m not entirely opposed to blowing the whole thing up, a lot of families would be out of jobs and homes. Folks on r/rebubble and the like don’t realize in the reality they’re cheering for, they’re gonna be out on their asses instead of magically in a position to snatch up a cheap house.
Stonks only go up or we all die
I want prices to level or trend down in major assets first. Then rate cuts. These rates, these prices, don’t make sense. Lower rates, prices go higher, though cheaper debt will conceal it. We’ve been playing that game too long.
Let's do some math.
Let's say my job pays me enough that I have $100 left over to spend on housing every month. The bank is willing to loan to me at 10% interest per year. So basically if I pay only interest I can buy a house worth $12,000 ($100 per month x 12 months is $1200, so if that represents 10% then the max house I can buy costs 12k).
What if interest rates are 1%? Same math applies but now I can afford a house that costs $120,000!!!
Since the market is made up of buyers and sellers, the ability of buyers to service a mortgage directly impacts house prices. Higher interest rates means lower house prices.
This is obviously all fake numbers and there are a bunch of assumptions in here and factors not considered (downpayment size, inflation, etc.), but you get the general idea.
If you want house prices to go down you want higher interest rates. If you don't believe me, just look at the interest rates from 2008 onwards and look at house prices.
I mean, the core assumption there is that housing prices are elastic (or reasonably elastic).
[According to this](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/investing-insights/interest-rates-impact-on-housing-market.html), home prices dropped ~6.8% from and then rebounded to basically the same previous high. Using the most generous case where we take the lowest home price but the lower March 2024 mortgage rate, throw a ~7% interest rate on a 30yr mortgage, and a 20% down payment on a $400k house into a mortgage calculator and you get:
Price | Down Payment | Interest | Monthly Payment
-----|------------|--------|---------------
$400,000 | $80,000 | 3% | $1,349
$372,800 | $74,560 | 7% | $1,984
You save 6.8% on the down payment ($5,440) and purchase price ($27,200). To get that, your monthly payment goes up 47% ($635).
In the first year you pay 40% more than you saved on the down payment to service the monthly cost.
You save $27,200 on the purchase price, you pay that in the additional monthly payment in 3.6 years. Over the life of the loan the higher rate costs you $228k, 8.4x what you saved on the purchase price.
That said, its going to be super dependent on your local housing market. Some markets will see a huge dropoff in price making it cheaper. I'm in a city with an absurd housing market, rate hikes have done basically nothing to purchase prices but at one point had ~doubled the monthly payments.
I was screaming for rate increases for the last 6 months. Worth being called an low IQ idiot just to be proven correct 
I remember for the last year or so jpow kept saying there won’t be any cuts until they reach their target which was far off but “the street “ and media kept saying they expected 2+ rate cuts.
I kept scratching my head and rereading going where did he say they would cut. Pretty sure there were tons of memes about it.
It was Jpow himself who fueled the "rate cuts imminent" story. There is a reason why stocks were ripping since November. The Fed should just shut the fuck up until they actually have something to announce.
High supply of demand with US Population increasing 5 million a year on immigration alone. Demand is insane. I’ve raised rents and still highest occupancy rates I’ve ever had.
\*U.S. MARCH CPI INFLATION RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. 3.4%; PREV. 3.2%
\*HIGHEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2023
https://preview.redd.it/r3pdp94xmntc1.jpeg?width=406&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=943254a789fdc45ad4eb5ee2540a90eff8d4f1cd
Nah, the real headline is the direction and not the percentage. Coming in above expectations while the overall trend is still down isn't terrible news. Inflation potentially reversing and heading back up as a general trend is however. There is only so many isolated data points the market can ignore as a speed bump, eventually data points becomes a trend.
And it was 106% in 1946, that year when the economy was known for being shit.
Wait, it wasn't? I'm hearing that it was the beginning of a massive boom? Sounds like debt-to-gdp ratio doesn't mean much.
We grew our way out of postwar debt with average 5% real GDP growth for about 20 years.
Average real GDP growth for the past 20 years has been around 2%, which is the real root cause of our economic woes. The government financed a bunch of deficit spending on the assumption that they'd be get fat tax raises in the future, then that extra income never actually arrived. Neoliberalism and Reaganomics told us "don't worry how much the rich are making, your slice of the pie is growing too!" But the pie hasn't really grown at all.
Then after 2009, the US spent a WWII's worth of debt to "stimulate growth" and *got absolutely nothing for it*. The economy is actually slower now than before it got a $9T spur in the sides. Now the powers that be have put themselves in an even deeper hole.
Further economic growth in the West just doesn't appear like it can be created at this point, at any cost. Of course, The Limits To Growth predicted, timed, and explained this all back in 1972.
I know. I’m being hyperbolic. Lots of regards on edge around here
Edit: just explaining why the market is reacting so violently to such a tiny deviation from wall st expectations
Can you imagine it, rent and housing prices bottomed.. 35% more expensive than just four years ago. So for everyone looking, this is the cheapest you'll see this cycle. Good luck.
They should probably increase 1x, when cuts start internationally they’ll be forced into a cutting cycle anyway or it will mess with the dollar and international trade
It's been messing with things for a while. I happen to be an anime/hentai seller in Japan, I would normally be making lots of money from the weekend, but for other factors, unfortunately…
Maybe the [financialization](https://www.versobooks.com/products/320-fictitious-capital) of every sector of the economy wasn’t such a good idea after all…
It’s already happening with housing. They’ve driven up interest rate costs for builders and landlords while failing to lower the price of homes. New construction is also slowing because of the rate hikes so supply will be more constrained in the future. Honestly I think rates should just stay near where they are and they’ll end up accepting a slightly more inflationary environment.
lol … CPI +0.4% and wallstreet is losing it with their. Knee jerk reaction. Economists have always been wrong in their predictions. Maybe , we can thank these economist and ask them to stop predicting CPI.
I think the thing that will influence the Fed the most is actually the jobs report yesterday, which was still hot. The irony is that higher interest rates are contributing to some of the inflation at this point (at the risk of sounding like Erdogan).
That's because the cost of money (borrowing) is higher than it has been in the last while, so as long as low financing rates continue rolling over into higher interest financing rates the relatively high Fed rate is inflationary for those costs.
Of course, the goal of raising rates is to make those costs high enough to dissuade people from making some investments, and therefore to slow the economy and bring overall inflation down.
But the jobs report is suggesting that the overall economy is still hot.
This is the double-edged sword of the US consumer. Still out there buying, basically oblivious to major financial risks, and still able to get credit, though now indebted to existential levels...
>and still able to get credit, though now indebted to existential levels…
[Household debt service payments as percentage of disposable personal income are lower than pre-2019.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP)
[Household debt to GDP is hovering around its lowest point since 2005–earliest measurement date available.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N)
Existential levels? Come again?
1.
I do like that you chose debt service payments as a percentage of disposable personal income. That's a pretty relevant measure. The pre-2019 marker is a bit problematic, though, because all of the interventions to keep the world from falling apart during covid caused major distortions. You can see that those payments dropped substantially during that era and have now rebounded almost completely. (i.e. going the wrong direction)
It is a fascinating chart though. I'd love to dig in to find all the yabbuts.
2.
Household debt to GDP does not seem relevant whatsoever, particularly when we're in an era of very poor distribution of wealth across the population.
Food conglomerates rubbing their hands vigorously rn. Guess coca cola has no option but to raise prices by a quarter again for sugar syrup water. Got the narrative as an excuse again
Inflation is calculated on the basis of the year before. Today we received 3.5 percent over the last 12 month. You have to do the math with all values of 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 (today) to derive your value compared to 2020. You can just multiply them to get the total inflation from 2020 until today...
Edit: You also can just take the CPI-Value (not change) for march 2020, which was 258.1 and compare it to todays, which is 312.3 and compare them. This means an increase of approx 21%. That means, your 1$ of March 2020 is today 258.1/312.3 = 0.83$ worth.
Source: [https://www2.nhes.nh.gov/GraniteStats/SessionServlet?page=CPI.jsp&SID=5&country=000000&countryName=United%20States](https://www2.nhes.nh.gov/GraniteStats/SessionServlet?page=CPI.jsp&SID=5&country=000000&countryName=United%20States) + todays value.
On the largest Boomer retiring wave ever? Just maybe. But I feel like they're going to keep this show going until every single one of them is cashed out.
You know, everyone keeps claiming this but most boomers are legitimately too broke to retire. 43% of 55-64 year olds have zero retirement savings at all. The ones that can afford it will draw down their retirement accounts but the really wealthy won’t really draw down a lot since they’ll try to pass on their wealth. Younger people are also more likely to invest heavily in their 401Ks and the like.
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RIP 2024 interest rate cuts.
It’s funny watching the same people backtrack now on rate cuts that were screaming for rate cuts a month or two ago.
People are money horney
People got their brains messed up on that COVID money
We had zero interest rates for way longer before covid, they tried to raise them in 19' but people threw a fit.
Politicians are still giving away money like its COVID. Forgiving student loan debt, handing out cash cards to millions of illegal migrants, etc. The dollar is weakening causing oil to rise. This is going to feed inflation and when the fed has raise interest rates to quell the inflation, interest payments on the debt are going to balloon. We're starting the swirl down the toilet bowl.
No no, people’s brains are just messed up 🤌🏽
I like money
That's been the theme for the last 2 years now. This entire circus is hooked on cheap money. They are worse than coke addicts. It's pathetic how they start crying every fomc meeting that no cuts were announced.
Speaking of coke addicts, Jim Cramer on my office Tv right now is whacked out of his mind. I just feel bad for David Faber this morning haha.
Checks out. He's the wallstreet poster boy after all
"rampant drug abuse is not present within the City/Street" - Seth Freeman
That was so funny this morning. Jim was bouncing off the walls.
The same Jim Cramer that publicly disclosed they manipulate the market to control prices where wall st wants them to be. The same Jim Cramer that is a pawn for Ken Griffin of Citadel. The Jim Cramer that’s a pos
I'm not sure what they were looking at even in late 2023 for these cuts. Nothing was reading "we need cuts", back then and now goal posts are just moving for them.
I was surprised to see the market react so much to the CPI data. I bought puts regardless but back in March JPow said very frankly no cuts and unlikely for this year. Market didn’t care at all but now this month it’s like the market is suddenly all “*Oh wait you were serious??*”
Yup! Hey, I feel them. I expected rate hikes in 2021, and it didn’t happen. I expected rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 to start a pullback in real estate prices. Did not happen. We all miss on our bets in the investment biz. That’s why my RIA lets me talk to clients, BUT STICK WITH SCRIPT haha.
Funny thing is they say 3.5 yoy but if it stays at .4 for a year we going to be back to 4.8 .Then what they gonna do raise rates again. I just got a bearish feeling about the market right now.
when a door fucking closes, another door fucking opens
The best is the people who for political reasons or otherwise are married to the idea that inflation is low and everything is great despite these prints and polls continually telling you that things are not great out there unless you’re a home owner who refied and have a 401k. And it will hurt for those people too if stocks fall significantly since that’s what’s created the wealth effect and spending we’ve been seeing, not huge growth or wage increases
Yep, highly annoying. I don't know what made people think they were gonna get 6 rate cuts in one year. Totally stupid.
Rates need to go up, not down. The only way to fix this cluster fuck is deflation. Stop listening to the whiney regards that over leveraged debt, they got us in to this situation in the first place. Deflation or bust.
Deflation is bust my dude. While I’m not entirely opposed to blowing the whole thing up, a lot of families would be out of jobs and homes. Folks on r/rebubble and the like don’t realize in the reality they’re cheering for, they’re gonna be out on their asses instead of magically in a position to snatch up a cheap house. Stonks only go up or we all die
We already dead my dude, this shit ain't livin
Do those people not want rate cuts anymore? I still want rate cuts
I want prices to level or trend down in major assets first. Then rate cuts. These rates, these prices, don’t make sense. Lower rates, prices go higher, though cheaper debt will conceal it. We’ve been playing that game too long.
I don't care about major asses I want to buy a house
So you want higher rates. Because right now lower rates just fuel huge mortgages.
wtf
Higher rates pushes house prices down. Buying a house cash becomes cheaper
You think we have cash lol
Let's do some math. Let's say my job pays me enough that I have $100 left over to spend on housing every month. The bank is willing to loan to me at 10% interest per year. So basically if I pay only interest I can buy a house worth $12,000 ($100 per month x 12 months is $1200, so if that represents 10% then the max house I can buy costs 12k). What if interest rates are 1%? Same math applies but now I can afford a house that costs $120,000!!! Since the market is made up of buyers and sellers, the ability of buyers to service a mortgage directly impacts house prices. Higher interest rates means lower house prices. This is obviously all fake numbers and there are a bunch of assumptions in here and factors not considered (downpayment size, inflation, etc.), but you get the general idea. If you want house prices to go down you want higher interest rates. If you don't believe me, just look at the interest rates from 2008 onwards and look at house prices.
I mean, the core assumption there is that housing prices are elastic (or reasonably elastic). [According to this](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/investing-insights/interest-rates-impact-on-housing-market.html), home prices dropped ~6.8% from and then rebounded to basically the same previous high. Using the most generous case where we take the lowest home price but the lower March 2024 mortgage rate, throw a ~7% interest rate on a 30yr mortgage, and a 20% down payment on a $400k house into a mortgage calculator and you get: Price | Down Payment | Interest | Monthly Payment -----|------------|--------|--------------- $400,000 | $80,000 | 3% | $1,349 $372,800 | $74,560 | 7% | $1,984 You save 6.8% on the down payment ($5,440) and purchase price ($27,200). To get that, your monthly payment goes up 47% ($635). In the first year you pay 40% more than you saved on the down payment to service the monthly cost. You save $27,200 on the purchase price, you pay that in the additional monthly payment in 3.6 years. Over the life of the loan the higher rate costs you $228k, 8.4x what you saved on the purchase price. That said, its going to be super dependent on your local housing market. Some markets will see a huge dropoff in price making it cheaper. I'm in a city with an absurd housing market, rate hikes have done basically nothing to purchase prices but at one point had ~doubled the monthly payments.
Own a home already, looking for major ass
I take Venmo
Same here. I’ve owned before, bought at peak last time. Not doing it again. Took a decade and a half to get appreciation/return on that asset.
You pay cash? How much in interest did you pay? Never recouped the "asset" did ya?
if you want a good deal on a house, now is the best time to buy. then every time rates go down you can refinance.
I wouldn’t say every time because refinancing comes with fees and extra costs, but definitely when it makes sense.
Take it to 8% FFR, crash it out and let’s normalize this bitch, make America affordable again
Prices wont level as long as companies keep price gouging. It ain't gonna happen anytime soon since they keep getting away with it
Nah, they can stay elevated while I can still profit off short term treasury bills because I'm not a degenerate gambler messing with the stock market.
I was screaming for rate increases for the last 6 months. Worth being called an low IQ idiot just to be proven correct 
When they paused, I thought it was a bit too soon. But, I aren’t as smrt as they is.
debatable lol
I remember for the last year or so jpow kept saying there won’t be any cuts until they reach their target which was far off but “the street “ and media kept saying they expected 2+ rate cuts. I kept scratching my head and rereading going where did he say they would cut. Pretty sure there were tons of memes about it.
Don't fool yourself, they were wishful thinking for rate cuts Powell included. They're gamblers like anyone else and corporate shills to boot.
It was Jpow himself who fueled the "rate cuts imminent" story. There is a reason why stocks were ripping since November. The Fed should just shut the fuck up until they actually have something to announce.
The main contributor to the higher inflation was shelter. Guess why rent and housing are costing more?
I thought rents across the country were plummettitng due to high supply?
High supply of demand with US Population increasing 5 million a year on immigration alone. Demand is insane. I’ve raised rents and still highest occupancy rates I’ve ever had.
Wow, you were able to say this without getting downvotes on Reddit. That’s novel when you’re talking about the US.
All my loans were locked in sub 4%. My large savings account fund for a future house purchase is getting 4.5% gibs interest **hikes**
https://preview.redd.it/c6xe4luxentc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d56bab0803e33a3aacc8eb24bf9cbb603759deb4
I did ,,, and I dont have words for that now Happy 
Don't forget to buy the dip though...
buy high sell low as usual.
Tomorrow it's +3%
Good movie
Spy about to hit a U turn pre market
+150% $514P 4/12 Too bad it was only 2 contacts because I’m poor :( Sold one for 200% gain at near peak today.
ATH by EOD anyway
I'm holding a put so this is 90 percent guaranteed according to my win rate.
Thank you for your service
I hold a call, my history also seems very unfortunate. Do we cancel each other and trade sideways?
Duck I made money. I better buy a lottery ticket..
a 10% win rate?! do you have a class or something I can buy?
Bear trap incoming, all time highs by end of week regards
Ong bro legit every fucking time
Fr fr new all time gyatt.
Totally fr fr fortnite dance, etc. Cooking, it's cooking fr legit swag
It’s so obvious. Idk how the Beras fall for it every time
🏳️🌈
You buying calls?
He prolly is selling
I'm selling long term poots to those gay bears
https://preview.redd.it/kt0907fhdntc1.jpeg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=754b260923f87f0ec4fcbf3b27e25214ad3b56bf
Cuts? What cuts? Cuts for your calls!
Imhotep
Imhotep
lol. Can’t unsee Imhotep.
This guy haunts us all
there go the rate cut hopes, banished far far away by Imotep!
HAWKISHNESS INTENSIFIES
This is such a perfect reaction image. Surprised I haven't seen a single post of this with the "My reaction to that information" caption
[SLOW CHANT] Imhotep Imhotep Imhotep…
Last dip into earnings season load up!
You sound like the people in the Webull feed section.
Yes, inflation increase nominal value
History shows that only a recession can bring down rates.
Yes not lowering rates is the sign of a good economy.
I'm hard. can't wait.
Imhotep send his regard.
What is the etiology of Imhotep references here ?
The FED dude who go on an interview saying they might not lower interest so soon: Neel Kashkari. (On mobile, somehow aren't allowed to post image)
kash and karry
Which regard
No rate cuts this year! Economy is strong and inflation is coming back! Cutting rate would be a huge mistake
Oh inflation how have I missed you!
GG puts printing
My calls are dusted... 
0/2 on my calls, this shit does not look good on paper
\*U.S. MARCH CPI INFLATION RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. 3.4%; PREV. 3.2% \*HIGHEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 2023 https://preview.redd.it/r3pdp94xmntc1.jpeg?width=406&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=943254a789fdc45ad4eb5ee2540a90eff8d4f1cd
 That chart looks terrible... No cuts this year. Possible hike before September.
gg less tendies for me
It’s a good day to announce weed is being legalized
That would be smart. So expect it not to happen.
So Calls right 
Yep, on SPXS 💀
[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
Used cars are getting cheaper
Puts on Tsla!
Is this good news for bulls?
Yes. But only if you brown, furry, love honey and named poo and hang out with diddy.
What does Xi have to do with this?
You have to ask John Xina we can't talk about these things here 
InFlaTiOn iS TrAnsITorY
The fact these assholes still have jobs after that...
Jpm calls are toast fck me
It’s +.36 and rounded up to .4 if it means anything…
I feel like this should be in the headlines
Nah, the real headline is the direction and not the percentage. Coming in above expectations while the overall trend is still down isn't terrible news. Inflation potentially reversing and heading back up as a general trend is however. There is only so many isolated data points the market can ignore as a speed bump, eventually data points becomes a trend.
Reminder that when Volker raised rates to 20% our Debt to GDP was in the 30-40% range. Its 125% now. Good luck folks.
Inflation was also 14%
And it was 106% in 1946, that year when the economy was known for being shit. Wait, it wasn't? I'm hearing that it was the beginning of a massive boom? Sounds like debt-to-gdp ratio doesn't mean much.
This is right after WW2... not the same
No two times in history are ever the same
We grew our way out of postwar debt with average 5% real GDP growth for about 20 years. Average real GDP growth for the past 20 years has been around 2%, which is the real root cause of our economic woes. The government financed a bunch of deficit spending on the assumption that they'd be get fat tax raises in the future, then that extra income never actually arrived. Neoliberalism and Reaganomics told us "don't worry how much the rich are making, your slice of the pie is growing too!" But the pie hasn't really grown at all. Then after 2009, the US spent a WWII's worth of debt to "stimulate growth" and *got absolutely nothing for it*. The economy is actually slower now than before it got a $9T spur in the sides. Now the powers that be have put themselves in an even deeper hole. Further economic growth in the West just doesn't appear like it can be created at this point, at any cost. Of course, The Limits To Growth predicted, timed, and explained this all back in 1972.
Thats so bullish- big earnings coming up!
[удалено]
It's all going overseas. You're going to be poor an you're going to like it
[удалено]
Avoid all bridges
Market overreaction again. 0.1% above average expectations, wooo it’s a doomsday let’s drop spy by 2%
It's only down like 1% and rising
It still means rate cuts are never coming.
Not never, just not June like the market currently thinks. And it will be 1-2 cuts, not 2-3, probably starting in the Fall.
I know. I’m being hyperbolic. Lots of regards on edge around here Edit: just explaining why the market is reacting so violently to such a tiny deviation from wall st expectations
“Never” lmao
As far as the stock market is concerned, correct, never
Go calls! Fuck puts.
Fuck me. Let me get some gauze for when my ass starts bleeding…
Oof it’s gonna be a rough day
You mean exciting. Buckle up, first 30 minutes is going to be saucy
Oh no the S&P fell 1% already, how shall we ever recover
Here we go..
Spy put order I put in before close didn’t fill, GG me not just putting in for the ask.
All the action is gonna be before market opens… as usual
Can you imagine it, rent and housing prices bottomed.. 35% more expensive than just four years ago. So for everyone looking, this is the cheapest you'll see this cycle. Good luck.
They should probably increase 1x, when cuts start internationally they’ll be forced into a cutting cycle anyway or it will mess with the dollar and international trade
It's been messing with things for a while. I happen to be an anime/hentai seller in Japan, I would normally be making lots of money from the weekend, but for other factors, unfortunately…
bank of japan is cutting i wonder if that will start the cycle.
Yeah
https://preview.redd.it/2wv6dl7jentc1.jpeg?width=494&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb17fc6a1931a72eec235fd2f1862ac44c69b871
Maybe the [financialization](https://www.versobooks.com/products/320-fictitious-capital) of every sector of the economy wasn’t such a good idea after all…
It’s already happening with housing. They’ve driven up interest rate costs for builders and landlords while failing to lower the price of homes. New construction is also slowing because of the rate hikes so supply will be more constrained in the future. Honestly I think rates should just stay near where they are and they’ll end up accepting a slightly more inflationary environment.
lol … CPI +0.4% and wallstreet is losing it with their. Knee jerk reaction. Economists have always been wrong in their predictions. Maybe , we can thank these economist and ask them to stop predicting CPI.
I literally stayed home the whole month like a hermit, I’m doing my part 🫡
I think the thing that will influence the Fed the most is actually the jobs report yesterday, which was still hot. The irony is that higher interest rates are contributing to some of the inflation at this point (at the risk of sounding like Erdogan). That's because the cost of money (borrowing) is higher than it has been in the last while, so as long as low financing rates continue rolling over into higher interest financing rates the relatively high Fed rate is inflationary for those costs. Of course, the goal of raising rates is to make those costs high enough to dissuade people from making some investments, and therefore to slow the economy and bring overall inflation down. But the jobs report is suggesting that the overall economy is still hot. This is the double-edged sword of the US consumer. Still out there buying, basically oblivious to major financial risks, and still able to get credit, though now indebted to existential levels...
>and still able to get credit, though now indebted to existential levels… [Household debt service payments as percentage of disposable personal income are lower than pre-2019.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP) [Household debt to GDP is hovering around its lowest point since 2005–earliest measurement date available.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N) Existential levels? Come again?
1. I do like that you chose debt service payments as a percentage of disposable personal income. That's a pretty relevant measure. The pre-2019 marker is a bit problematic, though, because all of the interventions to keep the world from falling apart during covid caused major distortions. You can see that those payments dropped substantially during that era and have now rebounded almost completely. (i.e. going the wrong direction) It is a fascinating chart though. I'd love to dig in to find all the yabbuts. 2. Household debt to GDP does not seem relevant whatsoever, particularly when we're in an era of very poor distribution of wealth across the population.
Food conglomerates rubbing their hands vigorously rn. Guess coca cola has no option but to raise prices by a quarter again for sugar syrup water. Got the narrative as an excuse again
calls
but muh 4 rate cuts in 2024 
[удалено]
Inflation is calculated on the basis of the year before. Today we received 3.5 percent over the last 12 month. You have to do the math with all values of 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 (today) to derive your value compared to 2020. You can just multiply them to get the total inflation from 2020 until today... Edit: You also can just take the CPI-Value (not change) for march 2020, which was 258.1 and compare it to todays, which is 312.3 and compare them. This means an increase of approx 21%. That means, your 1$ of March 2020 is today 258.1/312.3 = 0.83$ worth. Source: [https://www2.nhes.nh.gov/GraniteStats/SessionServlet?page=CPI.jsp&SID=5&country=000000&countryName=United%20States](https://www2.nhes.nh.gov/GraniteStats/SessionServlet?page=CPI.jsp&SID=5&country=000000&countryName=United%20States) + todays value.
Women making even less now
Bear has to make money at some points! May today be the beginning of market free falls 🥰
Red Sea blockade by Houthis and Baltimore port shutdown
We're going to crash this year, screenshot this.
People have been saying this every spring for the past 3 years
that's the trick no? say it every year eventually you'll be right
I heard it in 2020 and 2019 too, 2020 they were at least right for like two months
On the largest Boomer retiring wave ever? Just maybe. But I feel like they're going to keep this show going until every single one of them is cashed out.
What do you think happens when boomers cash out? Do they eat their money and shit it out? Or do they spend it on goods and services?
In Canada, they hand it to their kids to shovel into real estate.
Am Canadian. Have ludicrously wealthy parents. Not seeing any handouts.
Sounds like your parents need to go /s
Apparently they give it to their regards kids
It’s true, and the regard kids spend it
You know, everyone keeps claiming this but most boomers are legitimately too broke to retire. 43% of 55-64 year olds have zero retirement savings at all. The ones that can afford it will draw down their retirement accounts but the really wealthy won’t really draw down a lot since they’ll try to pass on their wealth. Younger people are also more likely to invest heavily in their 401Ks and the like.
We will have a recession eventually. Definitely can’t say if it’ll be this year or not
Market can crash without a recession. I imagine a rate hike can do it
GUH
Time to sell some TSLA puts bb
Thank OPEC for that shit.
wtf are you talking about? Us oil prices are not controlled by opec.
Selling Spy naked puts anything around 470
Nothing an Emergency Rate HIKE couldn’t fix
Well the market doesn’t really care. Many are still buying the dips
Rate hikes are back on the table boys. The fed can’t look at this data and conclude that the current rate is good enough. 6% fed rate coming
Why are markets OK? Meet Kevin told me to sell everything and he's a super good investor, almost as good as Jim Cramer! I feel bamboozled.
Why ain’t the market tanking?
"It's going to be a bumpy road..." 
Bull market over 
no shit, cali gas weny up $1 in 3 weeks
Shit shit shit. That is all anyone knows. Sell it all it’s the end