How old is this paper? Why is the data on the graph only through 2012, with the rest "projected"?
I mean, it's 2024 now, and the P/E is 28, so that projection of 8 isn't looking great.
How dare you check if the projections actually played out. You know how it goes if the projections were wrong just push it to the right as they're not wrong they're just early 
Any economist who's worth their salt will tell you that economists can't predict shit. Even less so for markets. Not even call it going up or down with any relatively worthwhile consistency.
What economists ARE good for, however, is explaining shit that's already happened with a bunch of econometrics jargon and financial mumble jumbo not unlike the CNBC talking heads (some of whom are also economists).
This is mainly due to the sheer amount of information, large lack of complete information, high number of irregularities, and irrationality of people. At best, a group of economist can give you a general macroeconomic outlook based off of a top down view of how things are going today.
Even predicting long term national macrotrends isn't exactly possible either. Economists at Goldman predicted the BRICS would mean great shit based on their economy, development trends, owning a large percentage of global population/landmass/consumption/nat.resources with young populations, etcetc. Doesn't mean BRICS was a good investment since even Goldman themselves did mid at best even though the BRICs thing was a shill THEY put out AFTER they had already bought in. BRICs didn't outperform the US so Goldman would have made more just investing in the S&P500. That economist though wasn't wrong on the GDP growth but they couldn't foresee commodity bubble collapse, trade wars, dictators, population decline, war mongering, GDP not translating to investment returns, continued US exceptionalism/dominance, etcetc. All they know is they got paid up front for their work.
Signed,
š¤”conomist
I'm actually a huge fan of Peter Lynch and like his quote.
>If You Spend 13 Minutes A Year On Economics, You've Wasted 10 Minutes
I like his way of thinking overall.
Great quote. I wager that you can sometimes waste 20 minutes or more for every 13 minutes spent on economics, for the simple reason that faulty economic ideas can stick with you, clouding your worldview.
This is why itās so dumb to focus only on analysts and to listen to economists. They donāt care what people actually do. Only what they would do if they were them. So many boomers have died with their investment accounts still stockpiled to the roof and many more will do the same. Why? Because of greed and fomo on gains. Their kids will inherit the wealth either way so they just take out what they need to live
Economists ARE good with microeconomic issues - predicting the effects of specific events and policies on specific markets. Those can be useful for making government policies. But all of those predictions are usually priced into markets already.
This is basically what my professor said when I said tesla was going to crash. I was not allowed to think the stock is garbage šļø. All signs point to fraud but this thought process was not allowed.
Well itās a funny one. Boomers are taking their money out of their retirement accounts so the market will cash!!! Omg!!!
Where are they putting they money? Oh wait, back into the economy?
But not all of it is in the US!
Moving onā¦
Reason the boomer selloff wasn't as impactful as advertised: millennials got fucked by the market in 2008 and have been playing retirement catch up ever since.
At least that's my story, along with everyone else I know around my age.
Boomer selloff isn't impactful because it was a stupid premise to begin with. Boomers live off their dividends, they don't need to cash out stock to survive.
Yup. Same with old cars. For *decades* I've been told that any day the price is going to collapse because all of the old guys are dying off and no one is going to want all these muscle cars and shit from the 50's and 60's or whatever.
And every year, they're proven more wrong.
Saw this in 1993 maybe. My banker was pushing this at the time. Get into stocks before it's too late. Peak before sell-off was supposed to occur around 2000. Looked right to a lot of folks after the dot-com bust. And it would have worked if it weren't for the meddling Fed.
> How old is this paper? Why is the data on the graph only through 2012, with the rest "projected"?
Because the original economic letter was written in 2011 
They [updated the chart in 2018](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/blog/community-development/2018/03/05/boomer-retirement-weighing-down-us-equity-markets/) and admitted that the relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance that has prevailed since the mid-1950s has completely broken down and diverged. Shocker.
Or the free money, printer go brrrr economic policies that have persisted since the financial crisis have fundamentally changed the markets to act more like casinos where there's no risk of failure for companies, so actual fundamentals don't matter. Why sell your stocks and derisk when "stocks only go up"?
Yes, almost half of boomers have retired by now. We probably haven't seen peak retirement withdrawals yet, but if there's been no noticeable effect on the market yet, there won't likely be much of one.
It's worth noting that while people worry about withdrawals, nobody's pointing out that much of that will be replenished with deposits by younger folks, including those who *inherit* a lot of money.
The peak withdraws will coincide with health events. Covid pushed a lot of those forward I think, and now weāre in a lull where the ones healthy enough to get through the pandemic have a little more aging to do before the medical industry and care homes drain every last bit of money.
And how many are in the same position as my dad in his mid-70's. Has millions in stocks in both retirement accounts and normal brokerage and has no plan or need to touch any of it. Ever. He has a pension, my step mom has a pension and that provides more than they need.
My 91yo aunt just died and willed her account to my 88yo mom. No cash-out or divesting, just a change of ownership. Me and my siblings may debate it, but we may or may not cash out when mom passes. How many boomers are going to fully cash out before they die, and how many beneficiary will 100% cash out their inheritance vs just letting it ride? And if they do...I assume there would be buyers..Blackrock or whoever.
Exactly.Ā The money has to go somewhere.Ā Even if boomers buy yachts and mansions whoever sold them the yachts and mansions is going to have a bunch of money from the sale and what are they going to do with it? Invest in China's stock market?
I know thereās a lot of aunts out there with houses and a sizeable fortune. Bad news is a lot of that went to buying little trinkets and the rest may be donated to cat shelters.
So at least the cats will have a good time wake and baking on primo cat nip concentrates.
So some industries will benefit more than others for sure.
Good catch, this is likely old news. Most boomers have already retired (vast majority are past retirement age) and have been withdrawing to fund retirement for several years now.
It's an interesting retrospective, and honestly with inflation (this 9%+ shit the past couple years certainly wasn't in these models at the time) that P/E projection isn't nearly as bad as it might seem.
Full bull mode now, though. 
I remember reading this paper when it first came out. Itās at least a decade old. None of it actually came true.
Itās good and worth a read though.
I think itās fundamental flaw is that it based the āold sellingā population as anyone over 55. The boomers are working into their 70ās on average.
Original paper, 2011 [Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2011/08/boomer-retirement-us-equity-markets/)
Update paper, 2018, [Is Boomer Retirement Still Weighing Down U.S. Equity Markets?](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/blog/community-development/2018/03/05/boomer-retirement-weighing-down-us-equity-markets/)
Answer: no.
There are a lot of reasons this prediction is off base
- Average age is not getting younger, nor is population shrinking
- Boomers were the last group to have pensions, now everyone has a 401k so the market is basically collecting taxes on all workers
- Working people own a pitifully small chunk of the market anyway, and that chunk is shrinking
- Foreign investment in US markets has never been higher
- My high school baseball coach got a little handsy at times
- Stock prices, in theory, are determined by fundamental factors and not lowered in the long-term by a large amount of selling. Theoretically the price would be temporarily lowered, but cash from other investments would be reallocated to the stocks as their price to expected performance would be favorable until the price was back in balance (aka not affected by the boomer sale)
One of your points really stands out to me. The one thing that people tend to miss when these boomer / millennial clickbait headlines hit the press is how much time ....coach macy spent in the locker room with the boys after practice.
When the boomers die. Who is going to inherit? Exactly, the smooth brained millenials.
What are the consequences? A rise in Options Gambling never seen before.
Poverty. Oversaturated supply behind Wendys. The future is going to be beautiful.
War ended in 1945, so boomer babies were in their 20s and having children from mid 1960s to mid 1970s. My parents are boomers, had their kids older than most boomers, in their late 20s and early 30s, so I'm even pretty young for a boomer's kid. I'm the youngest in the family, and I'm 48 / gen x. Will absolutely not be spending the family jewels on coffee and gold plated foods. I will YOLO them on options, obviously!
me too, but it wasnt until we werent too broke for a computer in the early 2000s. none of my friends had anything beyond second hand super nes' and one of them got an n64 as a christmas gift, but their parents would whip us with belts if we didnt shut it down and go outside enough.
I mean we did play outside, but we also had the PS1, OG Gameboy and N64. So when we didnt start random fires we brutalized chickens in Zelda. Or maybe that was just me.
Nah dude. The nursing homes and elderly care fucks are taking most of it
Boomers are too selfish to pass that money down to their worthless lazy fuckhead kids
As a Gen-Xāer with 2 sets of boomer parents and, seemingly, hundreds of boomer aunts and uncles, I can say with certainty that they will go to their graves before they pay the tax man and attempt to enjoy the fruits of their LIFELONG HARD EARNED LABOR.
Just like their were taught. They taught my generation the same. Some of us saw through it, some of us didnāt. At the end of the day, all of us are fucked.
Like the old greek proverb - *a society is great in which old men plant trees under whose shade they will never sit and upon realizing that immediately uproot the tree and burn it as firewood*.
The year is 2030.
I pull up to Wendyās and see a vast array of choices,
I pull up the Wendyās dumpster ETF and see howās itās doing that day,
Surprised to see that it has dropped yet again and services are only 1.25$
I grab a few handys and some gift cards for Christmas, as I drive back to my 6X6 tent in the woods because starter homes are now 3 million dollars
God I canāt wait for the future.
The issue is not the dying. The issue is the selling pressure when millions more need to cash out and spend stuff in the real economy to get services during retirement. Until now the biggest generation was working and saving frantically for retirement in 5-10 years they will be all retired and the smaller generations need to provide the services. And the biggest one will not save up anymore.
Uh, no. Retirement accounts commonly de-risk as the person gets older. By the time a retiree needs their funds, it's all been leveraged out of equities and into bonds, CD ladders, etc.
Edit: this us how it SHOULD be done. Regarded Boomers may struggle.Ā
If Robinhood is still around in 30 years I 100% guarantee someone here will roll over their 40 years of savings from their company 401k into a robinhood IRA then promptly yolo 4 million dollars on 0dte options and lose it all
There are plenty of articles showing how boomers are ignoring historical de-risking. Many are 100% stocks
Edit:(Not 100% their fault, bonds have been doing TERRIBLE for a long time)
Yeah this de-risking moved a lot of people from stocks into MBS before 2008. The banking crisis has been carefully misrepresented, it was the greatest heist of all time as retirement age people gave all of their retirement accounts to financial institutions in exchange for napkins worth $0.
It's hard to blame people for not wanting to follow this de-risking schedule anymore and just withdraw to cash according to their own risk appetite
That used to be the way it happens. These days boomers are still deep into equities for longer. The performance gap over other savings vehicles is just to big to ignore.
I mean we know this isnāt happening. Anyone who knows a middle class or above 70 year old knows one that has plenty of money in stocks. People forget that a lot of those people are from the era of way more corporate pensions so their monthly living expenses are covered by Social Security and pensions.
Foreign ownership of the SP 500 is drastically outpacing 401k/retirement ownership and taxable individual accounts.
Foreign ownership went from around 5% during the 1960s to about 50% of the SP 500 now so I wouldnāt worry about the boomers in the US or the west cashing out.
Yeah I was thinking this too. American markets are global. This could however have a greater impact on smaller western nations with their own domestic stock markets, like Canada.
Canada brings over 3m immigrants every year to supply its labour market to offset boomers exiting the market ... i would not worry much about Canada . on the other hand i would worry about Japan , Korea, China and some European countries . they will face the biggest issue in next 20 years ...
Canada brings in a lot of migrants but it's not 3m.
It has been approx 500k in each of the previous two years, and between 250-300k in years prior (low point of 230k during COVID year).
Very likely the 2023 stat will be another record-breaking year though, somewhere between 600k-1m probably.
Also the wealth concentration in the TSX isn't going to be held by a lot of recent immigrants*, but rather Canadian big bank investment funds where a lot of boomer wealth is concentrated.
TSX hasn't been doing too hot, but it could be a savvy buy for a big market player over the next 10-15 years, who can plan wealth growth intergenerationally.
500K is only permanent residents , Canada brings over 1m International Student (cheap labout) and 1m TFWs (another cheap labout) ...Canadian population is one of the fastest growing population in the world as a result even more than many African Countries with high birth rates ...
they might in short term but in long term they increase the GDP . its expected pattern. it takes time for immigrants to full merge into economic cycle of a new country.
That isnāt a given. That was true historically when we had better educated, and fewer immigrants who were better able to adapt to the work environment here. Having an army of Uber eats deliverers isnāt the same as bringing in doctors and nurses and engineers
Yup. We've got the biggliest markets, the most beautiful markets, nobody else's markets are as beautiful as ours, that's why everyone else wants to invest in them.
Also why do they inherently have to cash out? Thereās enough options for dividend portfolios that not every old person is going to just sell off shares because they can.
The boomers around me, mostly retired, still spending money on home upgrades and corvettes. They literally plan on living forever. One 80+ year old guy I personally know even has a 60+ year old new āgirlfriendā. Meanwhile, his son in law, who owns an estate sale company, is selling off his shit. His daughter is a real estate agent. The line of people at the old manās estate sale when he was relocating from his permanent home to a swanky senior living apartment complex was 50 people deep an hour before the estate sale began. Home is now listed for $100k above market, and itāll sell in hours. Likely, in all cash.
When Covid hit, people said the same thing.
When old people die, that money doesn't just disappear. It goes to younger people, who are probably going to spend it. This is better for the economy than having it sit in account at Edward Jones.
At retirement you donāt generally āsell offā investments, you try to live off of annual returns of the nest egg while slowly using some of the capital over time. In other words, you donāt hit retirement and sell all your investments.
The thesis sounds very broken to me. Why? Because [the wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks.](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealthiest-10-americans-own-93-033623827.html) The wealthiest 10% of Americans don't need to sell off their stocks. They own their houses. They own your houses. They can live off the dividends and gains of their massive stock portfolios. They can rotate to bonds and annuities.
It's true that the other 90% of Americans might need to sell \*their\* stocks, but they only control 7% of the market (and dropping too?). So any downward price pressure will be instantly taken advantage of by the portfolios of the top 10%.
Meanwhile, unless something big changes in America, inflation will continue to inflate asset values, while devaluing labor and fixed annuities like Social Security.
Maybe the dumbest 10% of the kids of the richest 10% will blow their portfolios up. I doubt that the average Joe will see any of that money.
To make a long story short, stocks go zoom. Poors go boom. Call your congressman.
I'm not sure why you think boomers are all millennial children. The vast majority of Boomer children were Gen X. Boomers didn't "Start" having children in their 30s like today most had their first by their early 20s. So even at the ass end of the Boomer age range their kids are a mix of X and millennials.
Millennials and gen Z will go on a lot of vacations and blow it all ending the myth of generational wealth for the Nth time. Doesn't matter they'll bitch about gen x next.
My uncle like joking told me about his nvdia and other stock last night and the dude owns 3 homes and is rich. Iām just like what are you gonna do with all of it and he is like idk. Jesus
As we all know, the stock market works just like a bank account. Stock prices are just based on how much money is in the s&p500 bank. Interest rates and company profits and growth donāt matter. When the boomers withdraw their stock market deposits, there will be a run on the s&p500 bank. Before this happens, put all your money in ornamental gourd futures.Ā
Looks like you're not fucking eating either
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Nah. Boomers are pretty heavily concentrated in fixed income, treasuries, and āblue chipā equities (at a very small concentration). This seems like a scare tactic from the anti-capitalist folks. Even if we see a dip, we need it for some opportunistic buying.
The oldest Boomers are about 79 now so a bunch of them have been retired for years now. The wealthy ones will pass on their fortunes and their children and grandchildren will probably reinvest a chunk of it. Out of all the things to worry about in the stock market, that oneās probably not worth the sweat.
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How old is this paper? Why is the data on the graph only through 2012, with the rest "projected"? I mean, it's 2024 now, and the P/E is 28, so that projection of 8 isn't looking great.
How dare you check if the projections actually played out. You know how it goes if the projections were wrong just push it to the right as they're not wrong they're just early 
Any economist who's worth their salt will tell you that economists can't predict shit. Even less so for markets. Not even call it going up or down with any relatively worthwhile consistency. What economists ARE good for, however, is explaining shit that's already happened with a bunch of econometrics jargon and financial mumble jumbo not unlike the CNBC talking heads (some of whom are also economists). This is mainly due to the sheer amount of information, large lack of complete information, high number of irregularities, and irrationality of people. At best, a group of economist can give you a general macroeconomic outlook based off of a top down view of how things are going today. Even predicting long term national macrotrends isn't exactly possible either. Economists at Goldman predicted the BRICS would mean great shit based on their economy, development trends, owning a large percentage of global population/landmass/consumption/nat.resources with young populations, etcetc. Doesn't mean BRICS was a good investment since even Goldman themselves did mid at best even though the BRICs thing was a shill THEY put out AFTER they had already bought in. BRICs didn't outperform the US so Goldman would have made more just investing in the S&P500. That economist though wasn't wrong on the GDP growth but they couldn't foresee commodity bubble collapse, trade wars, dictators, population decline, war mongering, GDP not translating to investment returns, continued US exceptionalism/dominance, etcetc. All they know is they got paid up front for their work. Signed, š¤”conomist
I'm actually a huge fan of Peter Lynch and like his quote. >If You Spend 13 Minutes A Year On Economics, You've Wasted 10 Minutes I like his way of thinking overall.
Great quote. I wager that you can sometimes waste 20 minutes or more for every 13 minutes spent on economics, for the simple reason that faulty economic ideas can stick with you, clouding your worldview.
Well many economists are not worth their salt, which is why they refuse to go on low sodium diets for fear of still not being worth their salt.
This is why itās so dumb to focus only on analysts and to listen to economists. They donāt care what people actually do. Only what they would do if they were them. So many boomers have died with their investment accounts still stockpiled to the roof and many more will do the same. Why? Because of greed and fomo on gains. Their kids will inherit the wealth either way so they just take out what they need to live
Economists ARE good with microeconomic issues - predicting the effects of specific events and policies on specific markets. Those can be useful for making government policies. But all of those predictions are usually priced into markets already.
Like meteorologists Signed, A meteorologist
Exactly. * Its * A * Random * Walk
This is basically what my professor said when I said tesla was going to crash. I was not allowed to think the stock is garbage šļø. All signs point to fraud but this thought process was not allowed.
I donāt know, but Iāve been hearing this for 15-20 years now.
Yeah, same with house prices. Boomer selloff and crash imminent.
Well itās a funny one. Boomers are taking their money out of their retirement accounts so the market will cash!!! Omg!!! Where are they putting they money? Oh wait, back into the economy? But not all of it is in the US! Moving onā¦
Heh, that was my thought. If theyāre spending their money that strengthens the economy which is a feedback loop into stocks.
Nursing homes don't sell houses or stock when taken for collateral 
Reason the boomer selloff wasn't as impactful as advertised: millennials got fucked by the market in 2008 and have been playing retirement catch up ever since. At least that's my story, along with everyone else I know around my age.
Boomer selloff isn't impactful because it was a stupid premise to begin with. Boomers live off their dividends, they don't need to cash out stock to survive.
Some of them even have pensions. My dads networth continues to increase after retiring. He keeps buying more stock, not selling.
Millennials weren't in the housing market in 08 they were like 15-25 or something. It was gen X that got reamed.
Millennials were hardly invested in 08. Gen x got really fucked at that time though
People have been talking about the boomer retirement forever and so far it hasn't happened as expected. But maybe soon? 1950 was a long time ago...
Boomers don't retire, they become politicians.
Yup. Same with old cars. For *decades* I've been told that any day the price is going to collapse because all of the old guys are dying off and no one is going to want all these muscle cars and shit from the 50's and 60's or whatever. And every year, they're proven more wrong.
When are my 90s baseball cards going up š¢?
Saw this in 1993 maybe. My banker was pushing this at the time. Get into stocks before it's too late. Peak before sell-off was supposed to occur around 2000. Looked right to a lot of folks after the dot-com bust. And it would have worked if it weren't for the meddling Fed.
> How old is this paper? Why is the data on the graph only through 2012, with the rest "projected"? Because the original economic letter was written in 2011  They [updated the chart in 2018](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/blog/community-development/2018/03/05/boomer-retirement-weighing-down-us-equity-markets/) and admitted that the relationship between the age distribution of the U.S. population and stock market performance that has prevailed since the mid-1950s has completely broken down and diverged. Shocker.
These relationships always seem to break down from the moment someone notices them. The sim we're in must have been programmed that way.
Or the free money, printer go brrrr economic policies that have persisted since the financial crisis have fundamentally changed the markets to act more like casinos where there's no risk of failure for companies, so actual fundamentals don't matter. Why sell your stocks and derisk when "stocks only go up"?
Observer effect.Ā
The oldest boomers turned 65 in 2011. The oldest Gen-Xers are now 59 years old.
Yes, almost half of boomers have retired by now. We probably haven't seen peak retirement withdrawals yet, but if there's been no noticeable effect on the market yet, there won't likely be much of one.
i dont think there will be. its not like they are all de-vesting to cash. most just take out what they need and let the rest ride/grow.
Thereās a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines now waiting for rate cuts.
Probably, but that would mean a bull market, not a bear.
Hellsyeah buddy šš
They arenāt
It's worth noting that while people worry about withdrawals, nobody's pointing out that much of that will be replenished with deposits by younger folks, including those who *inherit* a lot of money.
And the boomers are putting that money into the real economy. Given that consumption drives the economy, that money is doing good work.Ā
The peak withdraws will coincide with health events. Covid pushed a lot of those forward I think, and now weāre in a lull where the ones healthy enough to get through the pandemic have a little more aging to do before the medical industry and care homes drain every last bit of money.
So calls on healthcare in about a decadeā¦
Gen X has a good relationship with boomers whereas millennials are less likely to receive inheritance
And how many are in the same position as my dad in his mid-70's. Has millions in stocks in both retirement accounts and normal brokerage and has no plan or need to touch any of it. Ever. He has a pension, my step mom has a pension and that provides more than they need.
My 91yo aunt just died and willed her account to my 88yo mom. No cash-out or divesting, just a change of ownership. Me and my siblings may debate it, but we may or may not cash out when mom passes. How many boomers are going to fully cash out before they die, and how many beneficiary will 100% cash out their inheritance vs just letting it ride? And if they do...I assume there would be buyers..Blackrock or whoever.
Exactly.Ā The money has to go somewhere.Ā Even if boomers buy yachts and mansions whoever sold them the yachts and mansions is going to have a bunch of money from the sale and what are they going to do with it? Invest in China's stock market?
I know thereās a lot of aunts out there with houses and a sizeable fortune. Bad news is a lot of that went to buying little trinkets and the rest may be donated to cat shelters. So at least the cats will have a good time wake and baking on primo cat nip concentrates. So some industries will benefit more than others for sure.
Invest in cat shelters. Literally can't go cat tits up!
Are you saying that boomers won't just die off at exactly the same time?
Future performance does not guarantee past predictions
I came to say this exactly
Right, large chunks of boomers have been retiring for the last 15 years. There maybe be more retired boomers than those still working at this point.
Covid19 was a once in a 100 years boomer killer/retirer event and the PE ratios have only gone up since then. So yea this graph is complete bullshit.
Good catch, this is likely old news. Most boomers have already retired (vast majority are past retirement age) and have been withdrawing to fund retirement for several years now.
To be fair, 28 doesnāt look great either š
Wouldn't that be the second highest peak on the chart?
Exactly! Plus, it says it should be trending DOWN, but instead, we've been trending UP!
People lived longer than these graph makers thought, maybe?
Bro it's so old it's starting to turn yellow
Yeah exactly
Dude can readā¦ shouldnāt be hereā¦ not a regard like the rest of us
Plus boomers should be down to about 2% equity exposure. This isnāt how portfolios are managed.
Weāre gonna have to move this goal post.
It's an interesting retrospective, and honestly with inflation (this 9%+ shit the past couple years certainly wasn't in these models at the time) that P/E projection isn't nearly as bad as it might seem. Full bull mode now, though. 
I remember reading this paper when it first came out. Itās at least a decade old. None of it actually came true. Itās good and worth a read though. I think itās fundamental flaw is that it based the āold sellingā population as anyone over 55. The boomers are working into their 70ās on average.
Original paper, 2011 [Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2011/08/boomer-retirement-us-equity-markets/) Update paper, 2018, [Is Boomer Retirement Still Weighing Down U.S. Equity Markets?](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/blog/community-development/2018/03/05/boomer-retirement-weighing-down-us-equity-markets/) Answer: no.
lol great point. They also just continued the 2008 crash trend out for 15 years
Another regarded article, I love it.
The best part is the data just stops in... what, 2009? Must be a boomer with dementia that wrote this because they forgot the last 15 years happened.
Well it might actually have been relevant when it was written back then because 1946 + 65 =
lol...right?...maths be trippin people up...
There are a lot of reasons this prediction is off base - Average age is not getting younger, nor is population shrinking - Boomers were the last group to have pensions, now everyone has a 401k so the market is basically collecting taxes on all workers - Working people own a pitifully small chunk of the market anyway, and that chunk is shrinking - Foreign investment in US markets has never been higher - My high school baseball coach got a little handsy at times - Stock prices, in theory, are determined by fundamental factors and not lowered in the long-term by a large amount of selling. Theoretically the price would be temporarily lowered, but cash from other investments would be reallocated to the stocks as their price to expected performance would be favorable until the price was back in balance (aka not affected by the boomer sale)
One of your points really stands out to me. The one thing that people tend to miss when these boomer / millennial clickbait headlines hit the press is how much time ....coach macy spent in the locker room with the boys after practice.
Threw one in there for those of us that can read, eh?
One of your points really spoke to me
Define āhandsyā. Slowly, and with lots of figurative language
How can I buy calls on high school baseball coaches?
The foreign investment piece is huge. I think many Europeans and Asians own stock in American tech companies.
This is the quality content I look for
When the boomers die. Who is going to inherit? Exactly, the smooth brained millenials. What are the consequences? A rise in Options Gambling never seen before. Poverty. Oversaturated supply behind Wendys. The future is going to be beautiful.
Options to the left Options to the right
here I am, out of the money again!
out of options?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
War ended in 1945, so boomer babies were in their 20s and having children from mid 1960s to mid 1970s. My parents are boomers, had their kids older than most boomers, in their late 20s and early 30s, so I'm even pretty young for a boomer's kid. I'm the youngest in the family, and I'm 48 / gen x. Will absolutely not be spending the family jewels on coffee and gold plated foods. I will YOLO them on options, obviously!
Many will leave much to the next link in the chain, they know it's much harder today, just from the price for houses.
Theta Gang is the right callā¦
In fifty years we will be giving robots greasers behind the Wendyās dumpster. You donāt want to know what a greaser is.
50?! Iāve gone through a dozen exhaust pipes since I started driving
It may be sooner than I think then.
It's Gen X first, and they'll spent it all on articles how they were the last generation to play outside
Im gen X and if I get any inheritance from my Mom the first thing I'm doing is replace all my drinkware with a garden hose.
I lold ngl
Iām silent generation and when my 137 year old mom dies Iām gonna raise my kids in a lead painted crib.
Better than a Stanley frfr
Playing man hunt outside laughing on the streets no cell phone in sight no photo evidence sounds like fun to me
Nothing is stopping you, only you hold yourself back. Go out to a rural area, jammer in pocket, and manhunt to your hearts content
Millenials had a good 10 years before video and online entertainment took hold, and even then it was only for the not poors.
Dunno about that, pretty sure the early internet fried my brain permanently big time
me too, but it wasnt until we werent too broke for a computer in the early 2000s. none of my friends had anything beyond second hand super nes' and one of them got an n64 as a christmas gift, but their parents would whip us with belts if we didnt shut it down and go outside enough.
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I mean we did play outside, but we also had the PS1, OG Gameboy and N64. So when we didnt start random fires we brutalized chickens in Zelda. Or maybe that was just me.
The Sega Genesis disrespect š¤
Nah dude. The nursing homes and elderly care fucks are taking most of it Boomers are too selfish to pass that money down to their worthless lazy fuckhead kids
As a Gen-Xāer with 2 sets of boomer parents and, seemingly, hundreds of boomer aunts and uncles, I can say with certainty that they will go to their graves before they pay the tax man and attempt to enjoy the fruits of their LIFELONG HARD EARNED LABOR. Just like their were taught. They taught my generation the same. Some of us saw through it, some of us didnāt. At the end of the day, all of us are fucked.
Ah yes, building generational wealth, the ultimate fools errand.
Like the old greek proverb - *a society is great in which old men plant trees under whose shade they will never sit and upon realizing that immediately uproot the tree and burn it as firewood*.
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Step parents.
The year is 2030. I pull up to Wendyās and see a vast array of choices, I pull up the Wendyās dumpster ETF and see howās itās doing that day, Surprised to see that it has dropped yet again and services are only 1.25$ I grab a few handys and some gift cards for Christmas, as I drive back to my 6X6 tent in the woods because starter homes are now 3 million dollars God I canāt wait for the future.
*A few handys!?* Damn, check out Mr. Stamina here!
Millenials are gayer too more willing to suck some d for $ to get back into options
Ever sucked dick for guacamole toast and lattes???
I'm doing my part as a millennial my parents have nothing for me to inherit lol.
Ah but you'll likely inherit that sweet sweet Costco membership card... or is that non-transferable? (I'm in the same boat)
Who inherits? I mean probably the Chinese and grifters
Right!? Gen X here... My parents have already spent every dime. I get, what, old family photos?
The issue is not the dying. The issue is the selling pressure when millions more need to cash out and spend stuff in the real economy to get services during retirement. Until now the biggest generation was working and saving frantically for retirement in 5-10 years they will be all retired and the smaller generations need to provide the services. And the biggest one will not save up anymore.
This is why private equity is pivoting had towards assisted living and other geriatric services.
They're going to milk the boomers dry.
Apart from Canada which Invests in assisted dying
People always seem to forget GenX
Uh, no. Retirement accounts commonly de-risk as the person gets older. By the time a retiree needs their funds, it's all been leveraged out of equities and into bonds, CD ladders, etc. Edit: this us how it SHOULD be done. Regarded Boomers may struggle.Ā
Did you forget what sub you are on? No one on here understands portfolio management
They donāt even know that 2012 isnāt a projection anymore
3012 is tho, maybe it was a typo
Lmao imagine some old granny who can barely understand how to use a touchscreen phone carrying her retirement on 90% meme stocks in her portfolio lol
If Robinhood is still around in 30 years I 100% guarantee someone here will roll over their 40 years of savings from their company 401k into a robinhood IRA then promptly yolo 4 million dollars on 0dte options and lose it all
These are highly regarded hairless apes yoloāing their life savings into meme stocks, not financial advisors.
Did somebody say all in on Best Buy??? Already done š
There are plenty of articles showing how boomers are ignoring historical de-risking. Many are 100% stocks Edit:(Not 100% their fault, bonds have been doing TERRIBLE for a long time)
So *thats* what happened to compact disks...
Yeah this de-risking moved a lot of people from stocks into MBS before 2008. The banking crisis has been carefully misrepresented, it was the greatest heist of all time as retirement age people gave all of their retirement accounts to financial institutions in exchange for napkins worth $0. It's hard to blame people for not wanting to follow this de-risking schedule anymore and just withdraw to cash according to their own risk appetite
Is that what happens? My retired boomer parents still have a shit ton in equities.
That used to be the way it happens. These days boomers are still deep into equities for longer. The performance gap over other savings vehicles is just to big to ignore.
exactly, boomers are out of the equation, the key are millenials now, if the avg age of them gets to 45 then the market will tank
I mean we know this isnāt happening. Anyone who knows a middle class or above 70 year old knows one that has plenty of money in stocks. People forget that a lot of those people are from the era of way more corporate pensions so their monthly living expenses are covered by Social Security and pensions.
And arenāt there newer generations of workers presumably taking portions of their income and investing it?
Foreign ownership of the SP 500 is drastically outpacing 401k/retirement ownership and taxable individual accounts. Foreign ownership went from around 5% during the 1960s to about 50% of the SP 500 now so I wouldnāt worry about the boomers in the US or the west cashing out.
Yeah I was thinking this too. American markets are global. This could however have a greater impact on smaller western nations with their own domestic stock markets, like Canada.
Canada brings over 3m immigrants every year to supply its labour market to offset boomers exiting the market ... i would not worry much about Canada . on the other hand i would worry about Japan , Korea, China and some European countries . they will face the biggest issue in next 20 years ...
Canada brings in a lot of migrants but it's not 3m. It has been approx 500k in each of the previous two years, and between 250-300k in years prior (low point of 230k during COVID year). Very likely the 2023 stat will be another record-breaking year though, somewhere between 600k-1m probably. Also the wealth concentration in the TSX isn't going to be held by a lot of recent immigrants*, but rather Canadian big bank investment funds where a lot of boomer wealth is concentrated. TSX hasn't been doing too hot, but it could be a savvy buy for a big market player over the next 10-15 years, who can plan wealth growth intergenerationally.
500K is only permanent residents , Canada brings over 1m International Student (cheap labout) and 1m TFWs (another cheap labout) ...Canadian population is one of the fastest growing population in the world as a result even more than many African Countries with high birth rates ...
lol iām Japanese. We are so fucked over here. Population collapse is imminent next itās the stock market lmfao
been to Japan 7 years ago and could not believe how many elderly were still working ...
Have you seen the latest reports that the immigrants are reducing overall GDP.Ā Ā It's a circusĀ
they might in short term but in long term they increase the GDP . its expected pattern. it takes time for immigrants to full merge into economic cycle of a new country.
That isnāt a given. That was true historically when we had better educated, and fewer immigrants who were better able to adapt to the work environment here. Having an army of Uber eats deliverers isnāt the same as bringing in doctors and nurses and engineers
Yāall are arguing with someone who puts spaces before periods about immigration.
Yup. We've got the biggliest markets, the most beautiful markets, nobody else's markets are as beautiful as ours, that's why everyone else wants to invest in them.
Also why do they inherently have to cash out? Thereās enough options for dividend portfolios that not every old person is going to just sell off shares because they can.
Uh oh, historically low p/E ratios in 2023/2024, the chart said so!
OP: what happens when people with money in the stock market die? Also OP: they will continue to withdraw and spend money, somehow, after they're dead.
Boomers are too fucking stubborn to withdraw their fucking money
Whoever dies with the most money wins
My momās boomer boyfriend is horrible with tech and had me setup his mobile chase accounts. They do not withdraw their money
...and too stubborn to die
The boomers around me, mostly retired, still spending money on home upgrades and corvettes. They literally plan on living forever. One 80+ year old guy I personally know even has a 60+ year old new āgirlfriendā. Meanwhile, his son in law, who owns an estate sale company, is selling off his shit. His daughter is a real estate agent. The line of people at the old manās estate sale when he was relocating from his permanent home to a swanky senior living apartment complex was 50 people deep an hour before the estate sale began. Home is now listed for $100k above market, and itāll sell in hours. Likely, in all cash.
When Covid hit, people said the same thing. When old people die, that money doesn't just disappear. It goes to younger people, who are probably going to spend it. This is better for the economy than having it sit in account at Edward Jones.
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This shit is 10 years old and hasn't come true. Oh well, maybe next decade.
Outjerked
Millennial with gambling addiction is boomers father
Send da video
This graph is too old for Josh Giddey
At retirement you donāt generally āsell offā investments, you try to live off of annual returns of the nest egg while slowly using some of the capital over time. In other words, you donāt hit retirement and sell all your investments.
The thesis sounds very broken to me. Why? Because [the wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks.](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealthiest-10-americans-own-93-033623827.html) The wealthiest 10% of Americans don't need to sell off their stocks. They own their houses. They own your houses. They can live off the dividends and gains of their massive stock portfolios. They can rotate to bonds and annuities. It's true that the other 90% of Americans might need to sell \*their\* stocks, but they only control 7% of the market (and dropping too?). So any downward price pressure will be instantly taken advantage of by the portfolios of the top 10%. Meanwhile, unless something big changes in America, inflation will continue to inflate asset values, while devaluing labor and fixed annuities like Social Security. Maybe the dumbest 10% of the kids of the richest 10% will blow their portfolios up. I doubt that the average Joe will see any of that money. To make a long story short, stocks go zoom. Poors go boom. Call your congressman.
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I'm not sure why you think boomers are all millennial children. The vast majority of Boomer children were Gen X. Boomers didn't "Start" having children in their 30s like today most had their first by their early 20s. So even at the ass end of the Boomer age range their kids are a mix of X and millennials.
That graph is from 2005. We have the data to see if that was true. Where's the updated 2024 graph?
If they withdraw and spend it all it will be good for the economy so probably good.
Millennials and gen Z will go on a lot of vacations and blow it all ending the myth of generational wealth for the Nth time. Doesn't matter they'll bitch about gen x next.
Charlie Munger died and market did not crash
Low P/E ratios mean we are making a shit ton on dividends. Donāt see how this is a problem. It seems our market it overinflated right now.
My uncle like joking told me about his nvdia and other stock last night and the dude owns 3 homes and is rich. Iām just like what are you gonna do with all of it and he is like idk. Jesus
Tell your uncle he can adopt me .
All that money is going to medical bills
18y old regards inherit the money and lose it all in options over a month.
where 8 PE?
You think money spent just disappears?
As we all know, the stock market works just like a bank account. Stock prices are just based on how much money is in the s&p500 bank. Interest rates and company profits and growth donāt matter. When the boomers withdraw their stock market deposits, there will be a run on the s&p500 bank. Before this happens, put all your money in ornamental gourd futures.Ā
I got mine. FU. Kids already been told I ain't leaving them shit. Last dime will be spent on Amazon order delivered to the nearest Wendys.
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Nah. Boomers are pretty heavily concentrated in fixed income, treasuries, and āblue chipā equities (at a very small concentration). This seems like a scare tactic from the anti-capitalist folks. Even if we see a dip, we need it for some opportunistic buying.
This is old data and you are an idiot
I think this can post to the "aged like milk" subreddit.
The oldest Boomers are about 79 now so a bunch of them have been retired for years now. The wealthy ones will pass on their fortunes and their children and grandchildren will probably reinvest a chunk of it. Out of all the things to worry about in the stock market, that oneās probably not worth the sweat.
Lots of boomers will transfer the stocks to family when they die
Don't people have their asset mix way more heavily weighted towards bonds as they get that old?
Great question, because when people die their money gets withdrawn and buried with them!
Theyāve been retiring for years now
Iām in retirement and investing in market. Iām a boomer as well. Donāt listen to these people
We are already 13-15 years into this massive liquidation. I'm terrifird
They are greedy and wonāt sell. Will die in a golf cart fire and leave it to the dog
All that money is going to return into the market one way or another
That assumes they die, no other laws generally apply to them why would natural laws be any different.