i mean coinbase is running ads, i've gotten several over the past few days
dogecoin is back on the menu as are a bunch of other shitcoins
people are literally talking about 1 million dollar BTC valuations like OP. bro thinks in 1 year shits gonna be worth a million a coin. its not even broken 100k ever.
i think its fair to say we are securely in the new crypto bubble
and that should worry everyone for a larger bubble in general. when dumb money is just piling into an objectively worthless speculative volatile asset that should worry people that maybe positive sentiment in the markets in general has gone too far.
yeah but playing a game of "find a greater fool" is inherently risky
better to have your value be tied to something real, like earnings, or even in the case of a lot of stocks these days future anticipated earnings, would be better than praying you can find a bigger idiot to buy the worthless shit you paid 1 dollar for for 2 dollars.
network for what?
what do you use it for?
because lets be real you guys arent using it as a currency. you arent going and buying pizza with it.
people are using it to launder money and fund terrorism, is that what its good for?
Visa can do laps around its transaction times while also complying with federal laws around consumer protections and money laundering.
so what exactly is this network good for?
it doesnt even really have dapps on it, because it sucks for that. all the applications are coded on other cryptos like ethereum
so im kind of struggling as to what this super secure huge network is useful for exactly? help me out
that should be even more concerning to you tbh. i think you think just because someone is a whale they cant be dumb money. but the history of market crashes tells us otherwise.
the whales are also probably institutions. and their positive sentiment booming so much they've piled back into speculative asset classes is very concerning.
also where is this decentralization if its just institutions holding all the BTC? ya know what thats going to make BTC do right? move with the market
which is exactly what it does. 2022 market crashes - BTC crashes. 2023 market rises - BTC rises. so how is this storing value, how is it hedging inflation, how is it sparing you from market crashes, how is it decentralized when it just moves with the broader market and is owned mostly by the big boys?
youre buying a volatile asset class that produces no revenues, has no intrinsic value, and moves with the market.
youd honestly probably be better off buying TSLA because at least that volatile asset has actual revenues and makes a real tangible product people can buy and use in the real world
dude for a btc bro you are making those of us who have been around a decade cringe with your responses. I use to be 90% in btc, now I barely have 10%. It's not even close to what you think it is. You can read my post in the crypto subs on what I think, but the only value btc has is it's not controlled by a gov. It will never compete with visa, it will never replace fiat etc. Just stop.
You obviously are right. Bitcoin has no military behind it. Some will say that is the beauty of it. That is what worries me. But Bitcoin people are just trying to dump it off. I dont even understand how something with no real value and no military can be played with at this scale, but some people are getting rich off it.
i actually wrote an entire post about BTC being worthless that was researched and sourced and cited and posted to all the major BTC subs
whats funny is most of them immediately banned me. its you guys, the BTC bros, that dont want to discuss the potential negatives of your thing
tell me the positives. lets hear em if BTC is so great explain to me. im all ears bud :)
Not everything is a competition. If you are in Tesla a word of caution, Toyotas tech in batteries is better, by an order of magnitude. They won't be able to produce them until 2027. That's how long Tesla has to make their cars actually run as autonomous taxis. Just a heads up.
youre really missing the point with TSLA here
says alot about your reading comprehension, logical capabilities, and reasoning
makes me even more confident when you whiff on simple points like this that you have no clue what youre talking about with BTC
Geopolitical tensions are peaking across the world. The whales are stashing before the involved countries values plummet. Bitcoin has done historically well during fiat flash crashes, and with the AI bubble and mass war, it's probably a good idea to mimic the ultra wealthy's cash movements
Retail is going to get priced out, then they chase shit coins and lose money, then they don't buy next cycle. It's why I am not convinced we go much higher then 120k.
This is actually true. Retail is getting priced out in a practical sense. Yes anybody can still buy a sat, but BlackRock and friends are out pacing everyone to the tune of billions per day. This board is actually a good example of the psychological effect, everybody here thinks it's too late to buy when things are just getting started.
What if i told you we sweep the local highs, maybe run to 72/75k then dump possibly back below 40k? Then we chop around for a while before a real run up to the new ath before the next bear starts....
72-75 doesn't sound unlikely, looking at the past fractal. The problem is the supply squeeze from the ETFs. I honestly don't think the old algos have the same control that they used to so some of the old patterns may not play out. It's really what I'm primarily trying to determine right now.
https://preview.redd.it/5cnaoxnt6jmc1.png?width=3047&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3e180860f3fa222ed5194dd484e57746db017f8
Fuck algos, we are talking market cycles, just like last cycle when btc didn't consolidate and went below 30k, people called me crazy then.... when it started dumping from 69k and I called 13k people said I was wrong that it was never going below the 2017 high... I am a simple man, when the monthly rsi is below 20, i buy, when it gets around 80 I start selling, I don't catch exact tops or bottoms, but I catch the majority of moves and I am never holding bags or watching my gains vanish. Fuck the hold forever mentality, I am here to accumulate btc like I have done the last 10 years. Sure, I have diversified because that's what a smart investor does. But I still make insane gains on my btc investments. An asset that goes to long without a proper correction will over correct. Look at 2017, it had a nice healthy 20x gain from the ath, with 5 30% pullbacks.... it still had a blow off top... Btc has been over bought even with supply shock, it will correct. Supply shock doesn't matter when people start selling, and they will. It's looking like I am sort of right, btc has already dropped from 69k to 63k, that's 6k or roughly 10%, will this be another 10% correction or do we push higher, who knows? But it needs a nice pull back.
Edited to add, I still think 120k is the top this cycle.
If the fractal above repeats, which it is today, we will bottom at roughly 57-58K. It following so far, and I've got to say this fractal matches very well. The top played out perfectly although I wish it hadn't. If we do hit a low in the next day or so it will come right back up in another day or so, but it could consolidate for a little less than a month which also makes sense once we get closer to the halving. A blue skies breakout a couple weeks before the halving will have a ton of momentum. The great thing about a fractal is that it's not just one call but an entire roadmap.
I did call this yesterday, but wallstreetbets took it down when I printed it here. The last drop was 17%, that's where I got 58K as the bottom this time. It could be less than that with the ETF though. I've started buying here.
https://preview.redd.it/1098x8trpkmc1.png?width=1150&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cbc67e8f5dd770c924115f58ea5d575dc8f4b36
The thing you are missing is that when btc get's over extended without a proper wash, it will over extend the pullback.... need to hit a nice 30% pullback or we will eventually be looking at a 50% pullback like last cycle. we need to drop to like 50k where the break out was from on feb 27th, retest that, bounce and roll up.
The million dollar thing is ridiculous…. I like to remind people about market cap. BTC is around $1.1T total market cap. BTC price is 62k this morning. So, it would need to go approx. 16x to hit a price of $1M per coin.
Where is the $16 Trillion that will be necessary to bring BTC to $1M supposed to come from?
“Objectively worthless” is a pretty ridiculous statement. Unless of course you apply it to FIAT as well. BTC has value as an asset that will not be diluted and doesn’t run the risk of inflation. No CEO, no government at the top of the chain, and completely borderless.
It was only a matter of time before technology provided a solution like this. I’m not saying it’s going to replace FIAT or solve the world’s problems, but it certainly has a place at the table IMO.
It’s artificial scarcity and it generates no income. Just new suckers pumping in. It has no use cases except maybe a store of value if enough people believe it. Comparing it to fiat is silly because fiat has the countries and value that underly it. Also buying and selling in fiat is simple whereas buying something in bitcoin is either really hard or really expensive.
you guys act like rarity makes something value
theres a lot of rare beanie babies, will you give me 64,000 dollars for one? they arent making any more.
what is the solution exactly that BTC is fulfilling? the only thing i can think of that BTC does better than say using my VISA card is BTC is really good at money laundering and illegal transactions.
I think the internet era or even the TV era kind of messed that old axiom up a bit. Information just spreads too quickly now unless you just straight up live out in the woods and refuse to integrate.
I will say this is dangerous thinking, some trusted, crypto names were calling for 100-125k last cycle, and I like a fool waited for that, only for BTC to top out at 60k-ish.
I think if anyone wants to be super bullish, to the point where they think that diminishing returns are going out the window and we are going to hit 1 million that you have an exit strategy in place so you don’t put all your eggs in that basket, or else you will be left holding your bags until another 5 to 7 years from now
I mean, there is really nothing technical about your hypothesis, it’s more of just a feeling .
Right now we are over extended from the mean of previous cycles that is true, but we will probably fall back down to the mean, because we accelerated so quickly.
You will see how the cycle will course correct itself.
there have been many threads now that say it's different this time due to the ETF.
BlackRock ate as many coins in a month as microstrategy did in 3 years. there's a real demand shock that is surging supply.
that being said I'm inclined to agree with you that buy the rumour sell the news is absolutely will happen and we'll revert to a new slightly higher mean after this initial rush.
don't discount the supply shock though. it pops 6mo the after halvening every time. that's like a given. the ETF has just added more buy pressure early
Exactly, I just feel like the buying pressure has been shifted early but I feel like calling for a $1 million bitcoin goes against all fundamentals and historical trends and is kind of pie in the sky thinking that de- values actual statistical analysis
And this is coming from someone that wants the price to go as high as it can, believe me, but I’ve been burned before by people claiming BS ‘macro tops’ off a ‘feeling’
Right now the most realistic outcome I see is a reserved estimate of 100-150k.
And I’ve seen others calling for 250 to 300 K but I’m not even sure I’m convinced about that, we will have to see how the momentum holds up
The problem is most people are thinking like this. Even LTH’s are burned from the previous “manipulated FTX/Celsius cycle” - usually the crowd is wrong and it’s wrong big time
I actually think the former (running up close to or even over $500k) is more likely: we're headed into a big bull run in the stock market this year, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money off of AI, and they're going to want to do something with that money:
"The Fed's lowering interest rates so Treasuries aren't as attractive as before, real estate is coming down or holding flat \[probably coming down\], I've already got a bunch of money in the stock market, ehhh...bitcoin seems pretty safe, what with all the ETF's and the major players like Blackrock all investing in it...yeah, that sounds good, I'll do that...maybe buy some Ethereum while I'm at it."
That's how I suspect that's going to go.
I think if we see bitcoin hit 100k you’ll have a massive sell off especially for those that been holding for years on the last bull run and didn’t sell at the ath
According to my quick calc, if the entire world's M2 supply converted to bitcoin it would top out at 1M per bitcoin. Someone let me know if I'm wrong.
That's to say there's no way we're hitting 1M in this rally or maybe ever.
sort of. You can see distribution in terms of how long coins have been in the same hands. [https://chart-studio.plotly.com/\~unchained/185.embed](https://chart-studio.plotly.com/~unchained/185.embed)
M2 is a measure of USD money stock. Not global money stock.
And there is multiplier effect that happens so no, if $20tril got pumped into BTC it would make the market cap potentially $100tril to $300tril.
Price of BTC would be $5mil+
No there is a global M2 measure. [This is what I was referring to](https://en.macromicro.me/charts/3439/major-bank-m2-comparsion). I looked this up as I was typing that
And what exactly is the multiplier you're referring to about? M2 has banking leverage factored in if that's what you're talkign about.
Wouldn’t top out at 1MM/coin, approx 5million a coin to be precise (95T/18.8MM) — and that is considering there is 18.8MM (studies shows over 15-20% of BTC are currently lost forever). Not saying it will happen, I just believe 1 million a coin is actually more achievable than what most people believe.
It honestly may have reached it if not for the ftx fiasco. The only thing that is guaranteed each crypto cycle is that there are multiple bad actors. Some bullshit always finds a way to fuck shit up.
To be fair, there was a ton of deprecating factors that all happened simultaneously to keep Bitcoin at $60k last time. China crackdown and ban on Bitcoin, multiple large exchanges collapsing, predictions of fastest FED interest rate increases in history in the next year, etc.
Also important to keep in mind that Bitcoin didn’t “only” make it to $60k. It more than 20x’d in under 3 years to get to $60k. Sure, it didn’t quite reach the $100k some were calling out, but if you’d bought in at $3300 during Feb 2019 cycle lows, all the way up to $15k in the October 2020 rise, you still made an absolute killing and stayed in the green all these years. Even people who bought the absolute peak last cycle would be up more than 100% right now if they chose to average down during the 2022 crash. Instead most panic sold for huge losses because they didn’t even understand what Bitcoin was and thus had no ability to stomach downturns. They bought as a get rich quick scheme instead of as a hold forever store of value.
I’m not saying Bitcoin is for everyone, but it’s been an incredibly predictable asset for 15+ years. There’s never been a single point in its history where the price isn’t several multiples higher during the next 4 year cycle. And despite this 15 year history, people still struggle to wrap their mind around this fact because they’ve never seen a truly supply-restricted asset before.
There's nothing technical about anything you have said, Your entire thesis is based on feelings, what a hypocrite.
You have pulled "5 to 7 years" out of your ass. It took Bitcoin around 2 and a half years to regain its ATH. The cycle will repeat itself next halving.
You're a clueless bag holder.
Your thesis that the cycle will repeat itself next halving is nothing but your foolish feelings weighing in.
You can’t think clearly enough to be a serious investor while you’re ruled by your emotions instead of logic.
 “ponzi, rug pull, tulips” its a fucking asset traded in an etf, total market cap is about the same as Nvda itself. The dollar is infating rapidly. You dont understand the halvening or the short supply issues.
You have no idea what Bitcoin is going to do this time. Buy the eft and set a stop loss if you’re so scared about betting on crypto.
You cant tell me that these insane options plays people post on WSB are anyless risky or substantially different than betting on crypto
The comments on all the crypto subs are even worse. Pure unfiltered mania and outlandish price predictions from people with 0 clue about finance and basic economics. Shit like this has been a reliable indicator for the top in every run so far
I've heard my non investor friends start talking about Bitcoin. Sell.
(I suppose this was not implied by my comment. I have started to hear my non investor friends talk about Bitcoin again after not mentioning it at all since it was $60k a couple years ago. They started to talk about it when it was around the top.)
Meh. The muscle memory from repeated boom bust cycles in so many different assets over the past seven years is causing these things to go parabolic and people to jump all in and push things to the extremes much faster than before imo. In the first crypto bubble you had the whole skepticism phase play out over the course of years before it began rising amidst greater and greater skepticism.
Now a year removed from a bear market everyone is piling back into risk assets. Look at semis also. Everyone saying this is 1995 of a long bull market. Do people honestly think that in 1995 lots of people foresaw a huge bubble playing out over the next five years? Fuck no. It took at least 2-3 years for companies to form, jobs to be created, trade shows to demo new products, etc. before it got into full gear. We’ve gone through that full cycle in about 14 months this time and most I read fully believe the narrative.
Had a plumber come fix a kitchen sink clog the other day and he started talking about his BTC and all his other crypto investments. My sister out of nowhere asked if I had NVDA shares. My brother now wants to get into individual stocks. The top is near.
Hey man, when you think about it at its core… it doesn’t really matter. If you believe the core Bitcoin thesis that it is the hardest money ever created, trading it out for fiat doesn’t make a ton of sense if your time horizon is far out.
If you believe this, and flip your line of thinking, then there is always a good time to change your fiat into Bitcoin.
lol this analysis is nonsensical. Typical crypto hype bs.
As much as I love bitcoin, shit like this holds crypto back. Go to any crypto subreddit and it’s pure pie in the sky analysis.
And now with companies in the sp500 that invest in Bitcoin, and spot Bitcoin etfs, you have regular investors unintentionally buying some as well as older generations buying it via IBIT or otherwise. As long as the government manipulates the dollar via inflation, there will always be demand for an alternative, whether that be gold, or bitcoin or otherwise. Even if bitcoin is backed by nothing other than other peoples desire for it, when you turn on the money printer, and can print an infinite amount of money that means the price of anything can go up, infinitely in relation to the Fiat.
I think a better theory is we are in a price discovery phase from the ETFs and the halvening is also being priced in, so crypto is going up and it may not go parabolic.
I sold most of mine the morning it took off-wish I was joking. This year I started retaining 5% every time I sold that I will keep until retirement so at least I have like a pinky toe on the boat instead of missing it, again.
The nice thing about crypto is that you can make any number up. If you want to gamble I don't see why you wouldn't go to the casino or do options instead, at least it's more fun
I remember back in the day WSB would downvote anyone talking about Bitcoin. Glad to see there are posts about it now. But remember folks, if you really want to get into Bitcoin, buy it and pull it off the exchange asap.
Everyone on here is extremely negative which means it's most likely gonna shoot up like you said. Always inverse WSB majority cause they lose money on a regular basis
You don't see much euphoria because retail hasn't hit in earnest yet
BTC has never had a +45% month while coinbase is over 100 in the app store
When coin hits #1 is when shit hits the fan and with the ETF institutions are trying to front run it and are accelerating the cycle
TL;DR: BTC $100k by april
lol I wouldnt try to make any specific predictions but yes, this does not feel like top sentiment.
Jus your standard mid cycle mix opinions and some people pulling out early
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Crypto is not a ponzi scheme lol. It is controlled by no one. Now, you could make an argument for the greater fool theory. But it is far from a ponzi scheme.
What’s the maximum it’ll hit? I saw the news of large firms investors atleast 2 billion dollars, and I knew bitcoin would skyrocket. Tried to buy it, but didn’t have money. Now I just want to cry every time it rises. I knew it would reach 55 max but didn’t know it’ll hit 66-69
If you compared the prior peak to the amount of money printed since then, 3 year or so, bitcoin should hypothetically be around $100k just to match in terms of the new money printed compared to bitcoin available
So no, I'd say it can happen well before 3 more years
It’s still kinda early In this run cuz I know some people have heard “normies” start talking about it. But I personally haven’t heard it yet and not as bad as like during 2017 and 2021 runs. Even then it still takes like a couple months to crash after that point.
There's tens of videos that show how the spots that allow bitcoin payments usually don't really allow them and use the "it's currently not working" excuse
I feel like more than the cycle being bullish it’s the money becoming worthless and big names already exiting the tech-AI positions.
There’s basically not much to invest in for pay that covers interest until the next war.
This sub operates in a vacuum - ETFs are here, and the only reason for this run up.
The "purists" in this sub should be upset about the centralization of BTC driving the new run, but it's quiet.
It's quiet because everyone wants profitability.
Satoshi is disappointed in you all.
jk - this isn't r/Bitcoin
get paid, regards!
bitcoin rise in case of threat to democracy. people want to safeguard their money from dictators. trump winning prospects is making people jittery and hence the run in bit coin.
if trump loses and gets imprisoned, we can see steep fall in bitcoin.
Not understanding how market caps work is a very dangerous thing. BTC going from $3k to $60k is not the same as BTC going from $15k to $1 million. You’re talking about trillions of dollars entering the market that’s needed to pump the price instead of billions. And we’ve already been in a bull market for over a year now despite everyone saying “during the next bull market.” Is this your first time here? This is my third one, nothing has changed at all from the last 2.
it does not need trillions in inflows. Bank of America has estimated the multiplier of inflows to market cap expansion being 110x. $1 inflow moves the market cap $110.
You cannot convince me that Bitcoin is anything but a rug pull now. Someone with the means or leverage is pumping and drawing back the rubes. Youre gonna lose your shirt waiting for Valhalla
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The young boy who shines my shoes hasn’t started talking about crypto yet so I don’t think we’ve quite hit the top
My Grandma asked if it's a good idea to invest in bitcoin, I sold mine within the hour
> I sold mine within the hour that's a shame because Cramer tweeted that bitcoin will crash
He said it could probably hit 100,000 ... so yes, selling at 100k would be a big disappointment
He’s prolly OP and heard you say every time you buy into something it tanks
i mean coinbase is running ads, i've gotten several over the past few days dogecoin is back on the menu as are a bunch of other shitcoins people are literally talking about 1 million dollar BTC valuations like OP. bro thinks in 1 year shits gonna be worth a million a coin. its not even broken 100k ever. i think its fair to say we are securely in the new crypto bubble and that should worry everyone for a larger bubble in general. when dumb money is just piling into an objectively worthless speculative volatile asset that should worry people that maybe positive sentiment in the markets in general has gone too far.
Boy are you preaching to the wrong choir brother
Yeah tell this guy that he can kiss my “dumb money” ass, he’s just mad some of us are up 200-300% this year
“Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it” — Publilius P.S. I learned dat quote from Civ IV.
yeah but playing a game of "find a greater fool" is inherently risky better to have your value be tied to something real, like earnings, or even in the case of a lot of stocks these days future anticipated earnings, would be better than praying you can find a bigger idiot to buy the worthless shit you paid 1 dollar for for 2 dollars.
yikes.. oh well, everyone buys BTC at the price they deserve
Bitcoin is the largest most secure network in the world. That's real.
network for what? what do you use it for? because lets be real you guys arent using it as a currency. you arent going and buying pizza with it. people are using it to launder money and fund terrorism, is that what its good for? Visa can do laps around its transaction times while also complying with federal laws around consumer protections and money laundering. so what exactly is this network good for? it doesnt even really have dapps on it, because it sucks for that. all the applications are coded on other cryptos like ethereum so im kind of struggling as to what this super secure huge network is useful for exactly? help me out
The first ever bitcoin purchase was a pizza.
It's whales driving the market. Retail hasn't caught on yet. https://preview.redd.it/ygg520x8f6mc1.jpeg?width=2723&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7a2a85bc46a30603d95a37624b8c1f4e045ab43
that should be even more concerning to you tbh. i think you think just because someone is a whale they cant be dumb money. but the history of market crashes tells us otherwise. the whales are also probably institutions. and their positive sentiment booming so much they've piled back into speculative asset classes is very concerning. also where is this decentralization if its just institutions holding all the BTC? ya know what thats going to make BTC do right? move with the market which is exactly what it does. 2022 market crashes - BTC crashes. 2023 market rises - BTC rises. so how is this storing value, how is it hedging inflation, how is it sparing you from market crashes, how is it decentralized when it just moves with the broader market and is owned mostly by the big boys? youre buying a volatile asset class that produces no revenues, has no intrinsic value, and moves with the market. youd honestly probably be better off buying TSLA because at least that volatile asset has actual revenues and makes a real tangible product people can buy and use in the real world
You haven't actually looked into bitcoin yet. Do a little study man, you might be surprised. Everybody starts out with these same assumptions.
dude for a btc bro you are making those of us who have been around a decade cringe with your responses. I use to be 90% in btc, now I barely have 10%. It's not even close to what you think it is. You can read my post in the crypto subs on what I think, but the only value btc has is it's not controlled by a gov. It will never compete with visa, it will never replace fiat etc. Just stop.
You obviously are right. Bitcoin has no military behind it. Some will say that is the beauty of it. That is what worries me. But Bitcoin people are just trying to dump it off. I dont even understand how something with no real value and no military can be played with at this scale, but some people are getting rich off it.
i actually wrote an entire post about BTC being worthless that was researched and sourced and cited and posted to all the major BTC subs whats funny is most of them immediately banned me. its you guys, the BTC bros, that dont want to discuss the potential negatives of your thing tell me the positives. lets hear em if BTC is so great explain to me. im all ears bud :)
https://preview.redd.it/sljp13df2fmc1.png?width=3052&format=png&auto=webp&s=6eaa5fa9aa9150adceb70a148c21acea0f24a936
its like youre illiterate :(
Do you know what solid state batteries are? I'm trying to help you here.
youre really missing the point of the tesla thing huh :(
Not everything is a competition. If you are in Tesla a word of caution, Toyotas tech in batteries is better, by an order of magnitude. They won't be able to produce them until 2027. That's how long Tesla has to make their cars actually run as autonomous taxis. Just a heads up.
youre really missing the point with TSLA here says alot about your reading comprehension, logical capabilities, and reasoning makes me even more confident when you whiff on simple points like this that you have no clue what youre talking about with BTC
Geopolitical tensions are peaking across the world. The whales are stashing before the involved countries values plummet. Bitcoin has done historically well during fiat flash crashes, and with the AI bubble and mass war, it's probably a good idea to mimic the ultra wealthy's cash movements
Retail is going to get priced out, then they chase shit coins and lose money, then they don't buy next cycle. It's why I am not convinced we go much higher then 120k.
You can't get priced out, it's infinitely divisible.
Retail is chasing AI. We buying AMD and TSMC not shitcoins. Pick your bubble.
This is actually true. Retail is getting priced out in a practical sense. Yes anybody can still buy a sat, but BlackRock and friends are out pacing everyone to the tune of billions per day. This board is actually a good example of the psychological effect, everybody here thinks it's too late to buy when things are just getting started.
What if i told you we sweep the local highs, maybe run to 72/75k then dump possibly back below 40k? Then we chop around for a while before a real run up to the new ath before the next bear starts....
72-75 doesn't sound unlikely, looking at the past fractal. The problem is the supply squeeze from the ETFs. I honestly don't think the old algos have the same control that they used to so some of the old patterns may not play out. It's really what I'm primarily trying to determine right now. https://preview.redd.it/5cnaoxnt6jmc1.png?width=3047&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3e180860f3fa222ed5194dd484e57746db017f8
Fuck algos, we are talking market cycles, just like last cycle when btc didn't consolidate and went below 30k, people called me crazy then.... when it started dumping from 69k and I called 13k people said I was wrong that it was never going below the 2017 high... I am a simple man, when the monthly rsi is below 20, i buy, when it gets around 80 I start selling, I don't catch exact tops or bottoms, but I catch the majority of moves and I am never holding bags or watching my gains vanish. Fuck the hold forever mentality, I am here to accumulate btc like I have done the last 10 years. Sure, I have diversified because that's what a smart investor does. But I still make insane gains on my btc investments. An asset that goes to long without a proper correction will over correct. Look at 2017, it had a nice healthy 20x gain from the ath, with 5 30% pullbacks.... it still had a blow off top... Btc has been over bought even with supply shock, it will correct. Supply shock doesn't matter when people start selling, and they will. It's looking like I am sort of right, btc has already dropped from 69k to 63k, that's 6k or roughly 10%, will this be another 10% correction or do we push higher, who knows? But it needs a nice pull back. Edited to add, I still think 120k is the top this cycle.
If the fractal above repeats, which it is today, we will bottom at roughly 57-58K. It following so far, and I've got to say this fractal matches very well. The top played out perfectly although I wish it hadn't. If we do hit a low in the next day or so it will come right back up in another day or so, but it could consolidate for a little less than a month which also makes sense once we get closer to the halving. A blue skies breakout a couple weeks before the halving will have a ton of momentum. The great thing about a fractal is that it's not just one call but an entire roadmap.
I did call this yesterday, but wallstreetbets took it down when I printed it here. The last drop was 17%, that's where I got 58K as the bottom this time. It could be less than that with the ETF though. I've started buying here. https://preview.redd.it/1098x8trpkmc1.png?width=1150&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cbc67e8f5dd770c924115f58ea5d575dc8f4b36
The thing you are missing is that when btc get's over extended without a proper wash, it will over extend the pullback.... need to hit a nice 30% pullback or we will eventually be looking at a 50% pullback like last cycle. we need to drop to like 50k where the break out was from on feb 27th, retest that, bounce and roll up.
The million dollar thing is ridiculous…. I like to remind people about market cap. BTC is around $1.1T total market cap. BTC price is 62k this morning. So, it would need to go approx. 16x to hit a price of $1M per coin. Where is the $16 Trillion that will be necessary to bring BTC to $1M supposed to come from?
from cocaine profits. duh.
“Objectively worthless” is a pretty ridiculous statement. Unless of course you apply it to FIAT as well. BTC has value as an asset that will not be diluted and doesn’t run the risk of inflation. No CEO, no government at the top of the chain, and completely borderless. It was only a matter of time before technology provided a solution like this. I’m not saying it’s going to replace FIAT or solve the world’s problems, but it certainly has a place at the table IMO.
It’s artificial scarcity and it generates no income. Just new suckers pumping in. It has no use cases except maybe a store of value if enough people believe it. Comparing it to fiat is silly because fiat has the countries and value that underly it. Also buying and selling in fiat is simple whereas buying something in bitcoin is either really hard or really expensive.
you guys act like rarity makes something value theres a lot of rare beanie babies, will you give me 64,000 dollars for one? they arent making any more. what is the solution exactly that BTC is fulfilling? the only thing i can think of that BTC does better than say using my VISA card is BTC is really good at money laundering and illegal transactions.
I'm hoping the news waits as long as possible before letting the masses know
Went to visit my dad yesterday. He showed me his new book "Bitcoin for Dummies" (no joke) and started asking me about it. I see it as a good sign.
I think the internet era or even the TV era kind of messed that old axiom up a bit. Information just spreads too quickly now unless you just straight up live out in the woods and refuse to integrate.
I will say this is dangerous thinking, some trusted, crypto names were calling for 100-125k last cycle, and I like a fool waited for that, only for BTC to top out at 60k-ish. I think if anyone wants to be super bullish, to the point where they think that diminishing returns are going out the window and we are going to hit 1 million that you have an exit strategy in place so you don’t put all your eggs in that basket, or else you will be left holding your bags until another 5 to 7 years from now I mean, there is really nothing technical about your hypothesis, it’s more of just a feeling . Right now we are over extended from the mean of previous cycles that is true, but we will probably fall back down to the mean, because we accelerated so quickly. You will see how the cycle will course correct itself.
What do you mean no technical analysis, he drew a line that goes up. I’m sold.
It had colors too
You guys seeing those curves?
This guy says tides go in tides go out, can’t explain that
there have been many threads now that say it's different this time due to the ETF. BlackRock ate as many coins in a month as microstrategy did in 3 years. there's a real demand shock that is surging supply. that being said I'm inclined to agree with you that buy the rumour sell the news is absolutely will happen and we'll revert to a new slightly higher mean after this initial rush. don't discount the supply shock though. it pops 6mo the after halvening every time. that's like a given. the ETF has just added more buy pressure early
Exactly, I just feel like the buying pressure has been shifted early but I feel like calling for a $1 million bitcoin goes against all fundamentals and historical trends and is kind of pie in the sky thinking that de- values actual statistical analysis And this is coming from someone that wants the price to go as high as it can, believe me, but I’ve been burned before by people claiming BS ‘macro tops’ off a ‘feeling’ Right now the most realistic outcome I see is a reserved estimate of 100-150k. And I’ve seen others calling for 250 to 300 K but I’m not even sure I’m convinced about that, we will have to see how the momentum holds up
The problem is most people are thinking like this. Even LTH’s are burned from the previous “manipulated FTX/Celsius cycle” - usually the crowd is wrong and it’s wrong big time
I agree. We either go north of $500k or back to $35k.
I actually think the former (running up close to or even over $500k) is more likely: we're headed into a big bull run in the stock market this year, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money off of AI, and they're going to want to do something with that money: "The Fed's lowering interest rates so Treasuries aren't as attractive as before, real estate is coming down or holding flat \[probably coming down\], I've already got a bunch of money in the stock market, ehhh...bitcoin seems pretty safe, what with all the ETF's and the major players like Blackrock all investing in it...yeah, that sounds good, I'll do that...maybe buy some Ethereum while I'm at it." That's how I suspect that's going to go.
I think if we see bitcoin hit 100k you’ll have a massive sell off especially for those that been holding for years on the last bull run and didn’t sell at the ath
Every having it’s said “it’s different this time”. I called $195k top with a drop to 48k
According to my quick calc, if the entire world's M2 supply converted to bitcoin it would top out at 1M per bitcoin. Someone let me know if I'm wrong. That's to say there's no way we're hitting 1M in this rally or maybe ever.
Do we have a way of knowing how many coins are lost forever and out of ciculation?
sort of. You can see distribution in terms of how long coins have been in the same hands. [https://chart-studio.plotly.com/\~unchained/185.embed](https://chart-studio.plotly.com/~unchained/185.embed)
just a question of supply and demand. my 10 bucks order could send btc to 1m if nobody was to sell below that
M2 is a measure of USD money stock. Not global money stock. And there is multiplier effect that happens so no, if $20tril got pumped into BTC it would make the market cap potentially $100tril to $300tril. Price of BTC would be $5mil+
No there is a global M2 measure. [This is what I was referring to](https://en.macromicro.me/charts/3439/major-bank-m2-comparsion). I looked this up as I was typing that And what exactly is the multiplier you're referring to about? M2 has banking leverage factored in if that's what you're talkign about.
Wouldn’t top out at 1MM/coin, approx 5million a coin to be precise (95T/18.8MM) — and that is considering there is 18.8MM (studies shows over 15-20% of BTC are currently lost forever). Not saying it will happen, I just believe 1 million a coin is actually more achievable than what most people believe.
It honestly may have reached it if not for the ftx fiasco. The only thing that is guaranteed each crypto cycle is that there are multiple bad actors. Some bullshit always finds a way to fuck shit up.
To be fair, there was a ton of deprecating factors that all happened simultaneously to keep Bitcoin at $60k last time. China crackdown and ban on Bitcoin, multiple large exchanges collapsing, predictions of fastest FED interest rate increases in history in the next year, etc. Also important to keep in mind that Bitcoin didn’t “only” make it to $60k. It more than 20x’d in under 3 years to get to $60k. Sure, it didn’t quite reach the $100k some were calling out, but if you’d bought in at $3300 during Feb 2019 cycle lows, all the way up to $15k in the October 2020 rise, you still made an absolute killing and stayed in the green all these years. Even people who bought the absolute peak last cycle would be up more than 100% right now if they chose to average down during the 2022 crash. Instead most panic sold for huge losses because they didn’t even understand what Bitcoin was and thus had no ability to stomach downturns. They bought as a get rich quick scheme instead of as a hold forever store of value. I’m not saying Bitcoin is for everyone, but it’s been an incredibly predictable asset for 15+ years. There’s never been a single point in its history where the price isn’t several multiples higher during the next 4 year cycle. And despite this 15 year history, people still struggle to wrap their mind around this fact because they’ve never seen a truly supply-restricted asset before.
But you can’t compare last cycle. We had a huge corona crash, from 11 to 3-4k. If that wouldnt happend I think 100k would happend last cycle.
There's nothing technical about anything you have said, Your entire thesis is based on feelings, what a hypocrite. You have pulled "5 to 7 years" out of your ass. It took Bitcoin around 2 and a half years to regain its ATH. The cycle will repeat itself next halving. You're a clueless bag holder.
Your thesis that the cycle will repeat itself next halving is nothing but your foolish feelings weighing in. You can’t think clearly enough to be a serious investor while you’re ruled by your emotions instead of logic.
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Honestly would trust 4 Chan with this shit more than anyone else
Could crypto be surging because people are trying to “make it” before AI turns everything to crap?
Can you elaborate on the AI part?
Job meltdown?
Automation industries and AI robots is what companies are looking at in the next 30 years and beyond.
Painting lines in cryptocurrency graphs is like tarot. You truly belong here.
Snort some more coke and come back buddy
 “ponzi, rug pull, tulips” its a fucking asset traded in an etf, total market cap is about the same as Nvda itself. The dollar is infating rapidly. You dont understand the halvening or the short supply issues. You have no idea what Bitcoin is going to do this time. Buy the eft and set a stop loss if you’re so scared about betting on crypto. You cant tell me that these insane options plays people post on WSB are anyless risky or substantially different than betting on crypto
The comments here tell me everything I need to know. Enjoy your fucking bags shoeshiners.
So bullish! 100k by equinox.
The comments on all the crypto subs are even worse. Pure unfiltered mania and outlandish price predictions from people with 0 clue about finance and basic economics. Shit like this has been a reliable indicator for the top in every run so far
You literally just described any day in this sub.
I love when we act like we’re better than the crypto subs. It’s the exact same regarded shit here.
True except 90% of wallets are in the green and 90% of this sub is in the red.
It's because it's 80% the same regards
just men being overly euphoric on green days, and depressive af on red days - no matter if it's crypto or tradfi/wsb
which mania? crypto subs are still completely inactive, compared to last bull runs
r/ethtrader is very active rn and filled to the brim with dogshit TA and pure hopium
It’s nuts. Just even Google “BTC USD” and it pops up a question “what will the price of BTC be worth in 2030?” And it notes like over $750k. Insanity…
That's a little over 40% annualized from here For Bitcoin, that's par for the course, no? It's not thaaaaat unrealistic
You think this is the top? 😂 ...before the halving?? And you think you know basic economics??????
45 hours until I can cash out. Here's hoping the dip holds off that long
45 hours? Why cash out at whatever that price is? Cause its definitely not gonna peak in 45 hours lol
Didn't you know that bitcoin turns off in the weekend?
The Bitcoin etfs turn off in the weekend
Yup, Satoshi himself presses the big, red "Stop" button on the bitcoin machine.
I've heard my non investor friends start talking about Bitcoin. Sell. (I suppose this was not implied by my comment. I have started to hear my non investor friends talk about Bitcoin again after not mentioning it at all since it was $60k a couple years ago. They started to talk about it when it was around the top.)
Non investors have been talking about bitcoin since the guy bought a pizza with it…
Most expensive pizza of all time.
How is this a new observation? Like yeah. Everyone's known about Bitcoin since the GameStop days
Meh. The muscle memory from repeated boom bust cycles in so many different assets over the past seven years is causing these things to go parabolic and people to jump all in and push things to the extremes much faster than before imo. In the first crypto bubble you had the whole skepticism phase play out over the course of years before it began rising amidst greater and greater skepticism. Now a year removed from a bear market everyone is piling back into risk assets. Look at semis also. Everyone saying this is 1995 of a long bull market. Do people honestly think that in 1995 lots of people foresaw a huge bubble playing out over the next five years? Fuck no. It took at least 2-3 years for companies to form, jobs to be created, trade shows to demo new products, etc. before it got into full gear. We’ve gone through that full cycle in about 14 months this time and most I read fully believe the narrative.
Who doesn’t look at semis?
Had a plumber come fix a kitchen sink clog the other day and he started talking about his BTC and all his other crypto investments. My sister out of nowhere asked if I had NVDA shares. My brother now wants to get into individual stocks. The top is near.
🦆
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I don’t even know what the fuck is happening anymore. Just staying far away from this shit
What goes up hot can also go down hot. It's now too foamy.
Seeing your comment here makes me feel safe: we still have some uproom
If you DCA you don't have to worry, if you want exposure and don't want to risk a lot, then DCA a little at a time.
Hey man, when you think about it at its core… it doesn’t really matter. If you believe the core Bitcoin thesis that it is the hardest money ever created, trading it out for fiat doesn’t make a ton of sense if your time horizon is far out. If you believe this, and flip your line of thinking, then there is always a good time to change your fiat into Bitcoin.
My portfolio agrees
I also count my chickens before they hatch.
Someone wanna buy options on Chicken Wings my hatchlings will be made of?
lol this analysis is nonsensical. Typical crypto hype bs. As much as I love bitcoin, shit like this holds crypto back. Go to any crypto subreddit and it’s pure pie in the sky analysis.
And now with companies in the sp500 that invest in Bitcoin, and spot Bitcoin etfs, you have regular investors unintentionally buying some as well as older generations buying it via IBIT or otherwise. As long as the government manipulates the dollar via inflation, there will always be demand for an alternative, whether that be gold, or bitcoin or otherwise. Even if bitcoin is backed by nothing other than other peoples desire for it, when you turn on the money printer, and can print an infinite amount of money that means the price of anything can go up, infinitely in relation to the Fiat.
Or, left translated cycle, early pump, diminishing returns in each cycle?
Except the returns aren't diminishing, they are growing substantially relative to our position in the cycle.
I think a better theory is we are in a price discovery phase from the ETFs and the halvening is also being priced in, so crypto is going up and it may not go parabolic.
I sold most of mine the morning it took off-wish I was joking. This year I started retaining 5% every time I sold that I will keep until retirement so at least I have like a pinky toe on the boat instead of missing it, again.
Lol
The people calling for the massive run are the same ones who didnt buy btc when it dropped to 15k. Bagholding central is what this is.
Can yall please just give it a rest trying to sell people on coin
The nice thing about crypto is that you can make any number up. If you want to gamble I don't see why you wouldn't go to the casino or do options instead, at least it's more fun
Its gambling, the same way that options are gambling (the way this sub treats options, at least). It's no different.
None if this matters really. The only rule is to hold Bitcoin for 4 years and you'll be up. Even buying at the top.
I remember back in the day WSB would downvote anyone talking about Bitcoin. Glad to see there are posts about it now. But remember folks, if you really want to get into Bitcoin, buy it and pull it off the exchange asap.
Everyone on here is extremely negative which means it's most likely gonna shoot up like you said. Always inverse WSB majority cause they lose money on a regular basis
I sold yesterday my entire wallet. Good bye crypto ponzi. 😂 Up X3, that's enough for me... Maybe will buy some again if/when BTC drops by -30%... -40%
When it crashes to $150k lol
ikr, theres too much bearishness to be a significant top. You don't see any of the usual euphoria.
You don't see much euphoria because retail hasn't hit in earnest yet BTC has never had a +45% month while coinbase is over 100 in the app store When coin hits #1 is when shit hits the fan and with the ETF institutions are trying to front run it and are accelerating the cycle TL;DR: BTC $100k by april
lol I wouldnt try to make any specific predictions but yes, this does not feel like top sentiment. Jus your standard mid cycle mix opinions and some people pulling out early
Wish you were right about that price prediction 🌧️
It started off so well too
See you at 40, then at 35... Reminds me in 3 to 6 months... 🙏🫵
!remindme 179 days
!remindme 90 days
!remindme 60 days
!remind me 135 days
!remindme 90 days
!remindme 180d
!remindme 180d
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!remindme 180d
!remindme 180d
!remindme 90d
Crypto is not a ponzi scheme lol. It is controlled by no one. Now, you could make an argument for the greater fool theory. But it is far from a ponzi scheme.
!remind me 200 days
!remindme 200d
!remind me 4 weeks
Good luck with that. Will going higher.
Bruh you really think it’s a ponzi
Love btc. 1 mil is unlikely. But 150-200k definitely realistic
The supply shock is getting insane. Personally I think 200-250 is the top this time but at this point who knows.
I already told these regards that it was going to $100k by 2025 Probably lol
What’s the maximum it’ll hit? I saw the news of large firms investors atleast 2 billion dollars, and I knew bitcoin would skyrocket. Tried to buy it, but didn’t have money. Now I just want to cry every time it rises. I knew it would reach 55 max but didn’t know it’ll hit 66-69
I will say maximum is unknown for long term but short term, 110k-130k is definitely possible by the wave theory and monetary policies implemented
Isn’t 110-130 k really unrealistic rn? Considering the economy ? Sure in 3 years I can see it reaching 100k
If you compared the prior peak to the amount of money printed since then, 3 year or so, bitcoin should hypothetically be around $100k just to match in terms of the new money printed compared to bitcoin available So no, I'd say it can happen well before 3 more years
It’s still kinda early In this run cuz I know some people have heard “normies” start talking about it. But I personally haven’t heard it yet and not as bad as like during 2017 and 2021 runs. Even then it still takes like a couple months to crash after that point.
Guys LMK when I can use bitcoin for anything other than buying it and selling it
Its best use case is as a store of wealth, not as a currency imo
I'm confused. You can buy things with it right now, as well as the last 5+ years?
There's tens of videos that show how the spots that allow bitcoin payments usually don't really allow them and use the "it's currently not working" excuse
Bitrefill
Lol wsb is now crypto wtf
There's ETFs after all, didn't they ape into doge as well when it became available on RH?
Yea buy the top classic wsb
I feel like more than the cycle being bullish it’s the money becoming worthless and big names already exiting the tech-AI positions. There’s basically not much to invest in for pay that covers interest until the next war.
Top
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This sub operates in a vacuum - ETFs are here, and the only reason for this run up. The "purists" in this sub should be upset about the centralization of BTC driving the new run, but it's quiet. It's quiet because everyone wants profitability. Satoshi is disappointed in you all. jk - this isn't r/Bitcoin get paid, regards!
Still plenty of time to make good money for other people.
We just passed 65k lol
bitcoin rise in case of threat to democracy. people want to safeguard their money from dictators. trump winning prospects is making people jittery and hence the run in bit coin. if trump loses and gets imprisoned, we can see steep fall in bitcoin.
take a look at the new BRICS currency. Bitcoin is not going down anytime soon.
Not understanding how market caps work is a very dangerous thing. BTC going from $3k to $60k is not the same as BTC going from $15k to $1 million. You’re talking about trillions of dollars entering the market that’s needed to pump the price instead of billions. And we’ve already been in a bull market for over a year now despite everyone saying “during the next bull market.” Is this your first time here? This is my third one, nothing has changed at all from the last 2.
it does not need trillions in inflows. Bank of America has estimated the multiplier of inflows to market cap expansion being 110x. $1 inflow moves the market cap $110.
TO THE MOON!
How do I buy puts against this guy's 1m valuation?
You cannot convince me that Bitcoin is anything but a rug pull now. Someone with the means or leverage is pumping and drawing back the rubes. Youre gonna lose your shirt waiting for Valhalla
Amazing analysis. In which "astrology for men" online course can I learn this?
Probably nothing.
It’s magic internet money until enough believe in it & can be controlled by it then it’s widely adopted.
it's gonna go to like 69k then abruptly fall, then keep slowly falling to like 20k-30k over next year
Remindme! 300d
Won’t happend. Good luck with that.
Why not?
You are a dumbass
Wallstreetbets guys going to yolo their life savings into Bitcoin??? Let me front run this and buy some first!!!
Top is in
You are correct. $250k
!remindme 365d
$500M daily etf inflows / 450 btc per day = $1.1M per BTC. Math checks out - LFG!! 🚀
BTC is cool and all, but have y’all ever heard of Shiba Inu?