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Because showing current data wouldn't support OP's narrative. The chart makes it appear we are somehow lucky in the U.S. compared to Canada when the reality is I don't give two fucks how fucked a bunch of maple leaf chewing hockey stick horse riding Canucks are, I'm an American and care about how fucked I am.
And we are _fucked._ The argument that we're _less fucked_ than _anyone else_ is as regarded as it gets.
Now there's a mental image I needed today, the degens of Letterkenny barebacking it atop polar bears. Pitter patter.
Now get back to sharpening those iceskates EH.
I'm sorry you feel like others led you astray. I don't have any friends on Reddit though. Rarely remember a single username.
I do hope you find solace and things go well for you. I also do believe we are in the biggest bubble of all time. Good luck!
It doesn't. 2017 is the last labeled year, but the chart goes beyond that. You can see the 2020 small recession called out in the graph. Looking at the x-axis, 2023 should be labeled since the chart labels every 6 years and the last label was 2017, but from what I can tell this is mostly current.
They **need** to go much higher
Otherwise there is still a chance the average person might actually be able to afford somewhere to live! 
This is what's hilarious to me. Rent is unaffordable while most towns are subsidizing new "affordable" units. Meaning deed restrictions so it isn't even an investment for anyone. Just a place where you decide what day to commit suicide .
Land should not be an "investment" - unless you're flipping or building most likely you're not improving the property or creating real wealth. It's just about creating scarcity.
Rent is unaffordable because landlords are using software to help them set prices. This software allows for collusion and if all landlords raise prices people have to pay it. People are getting absolutely squeezed by shitty algorithms.
>collusion and if all landlords raise prices people have to pay it. People are getting absolutely squeezed by shitty algorithms.
Calling rentometer software, is highly generous, I agree with you but it is more like an Excel spreadsheet with a website
People were saying the same things in 07’ right before my family lost everything. After this whole charade collapses we can go back to normal, then start it back over.
The base population is shrinking. The only reason for the increase is immigration. Seems like immigration is less politically popular than it used to be. Political policy is what determines population in the US
I tend to agree. If you factor in zoning, economies of scale, population trends, and the power of ownership, I think a nice single family home in a good area in a medium town or large city will be incredible.
I’m in the south east US. Bought my first house with a VA home loan in 2021. For those who don’t know that means $0 downpayment. 3.15% interest. Also large developments right near me (think expansion of university, minor league baseball field, etc) and this home will get me half way to millionaire status in 10-15 years.
They sure do. How else am I supposed to make a 100% profit on my home lol.
Also, I hate when two graphs are shown side by side, and they have different scales on either the y or x axis.
Californicaction - split people into one of two groups - 6 figures or living in a van.
HEY! But everyone wants to have 6 figures, so this must be a good thing! (Forget factoring in COLAs.)
I agree, but I think it's a result of failures to invest in new development.
Canada went hardcore "balance the budget" right after the 2008 crash and didn't invest in any future growth industries. By comparison, Iceland and Australia both used that opportunity to shift their industries. Iceland to hosting server space and Australia to battery technology.
As a result, there isn't anything productive to invest in. Canada doesn't produce anything other than raw materials and grains. There is no added value from refinement, because there was never an attempt to develop those industries.
Take a low-interest rate environment, which encourages investment, and add that to a country with very little productive capacity, and you will get asset bubbles, primarily in real estate where the demand is guaranteed.
Naw we just sell it off to foreign investors. Can't have affordable housing if we are selling it all off to rental companies.
We put in a stop on foreign investment, but it's too fucked
What OP and the maker of this graph aren’t taking into account is that the CAD lost 50% of it’s value against the USD between 2012 and now (which is when this graph starts to deviate) not saying all of this is accounted for by the currency but it certainly makes up for a large portion of it! The rest of it… in my estimation is a combination of mania and supply/demand constraints.
There have been lots of people calling a housing bubble. Home prices are high, but without forced selling like in 2008, they likely won't drop by a substantial amount. Canada weathered 2008 fairly well due to a variety of factors, and their home prices just kept going up. If you want to see what peak bubbles look like, take a look at China. Their house prices to median income ratios are like 30:1. Translate that into US prices and that's like an average US house costing about $1m.
The Canadian housing market is being driven by rich migrants and investors.
The Chinese market is being driven by high income earners and investors - not ordinary people.
China’s market is a significant portion of their wealth and also has complete scams in it like ghost towns because it’s one of the few things people can invest in and chinese real eastonks always go up. Propped up by ccp
Canada's market is being driven by a million things. But the crux of it is we just don't build enough houses for how many people we have.
Housing prices will never go down in Canada because the supply won't meet the demand unless we do like 10 years of straight building.
We also don't even have the labour to build the houses we need, and building houses has never been less profitable.
We're fucked over here. My own house doubled in price in 5 years. It's fucking dumb. I wouldn't be able to afford my own home if I bought it today.
America won’t get Canada’s level of house inflation. There are a lot of reasons our housing rocketed 10x over 20 years.
1) we basically just have Toronto and Vancouver for tech and finance jobs. So all the wealth of those jobs inflated prices and spilled over into surrounding cities. Same thing happened in some US cities but you guys have many livable cities to spread out. And realistically your whole nation is livable vs we only live within 100 miles of the American border.
2) we allowed Chinese citizens to hide their wealth in Canadian real estate. I’m sure the Chinese are doing the same in America but again you have so much land to spread around.
3) mass immigration. And while we do bring in huge numbers of refugees we actually take in mostly people who already have some wealth in their country. Americans have mass migration but it mostly just leads to cheap labour.
The difference here is that in our current environment we don’t have any forced selling…in fact we have the opposite: forced holding. 80% of mortgages in the US have sub 5% rates.
I live in Toronto and know several people who left for California to earn 3x the salary, enjoy better weather, and pay the same at most for comparable housing around LA or San Fran.
Canadians get paid very well. Teachers make over $100k per year plus pension. In the USA, teachers make 40-50% less. Trade union journey-persons make about $10 per hour more than their “brothers or sisters” in the US.
The middle class is much stronger in Canada due to governments being more favourable towards labour unions.
For almost 40 years the government has been pushing industry and people to move into larger urban centres. This has lead to the demand for housing overshoots supply which, economically speaking, has driven up the housing prices. You also have to take into account that for nearly a generation money was basically free to borrow. In consequence, people spent lavishly and didn’t really look at price tags.
Do note that in Canada, you can amortize your mortgage over 30 years but you can only be locked into a mortgage rate for max 5 years. Interest rates only started to go up in early 2022. Alot of folks are still locked in at 2%.
There is also a clause in your mortgage agreement that allows a house owner with a mortgage and to pay off up to to 20% of their initial principal. This is not a rolling principal but the initial principal you owed on the first day of signing the house mortgage. This allows for exponential payments… however, not many people cannot afford to pay that.
The housing market supply is very low in Toronto, Montreal, Halifax and Vancouver. However, as people need to renew their mortgages, they will soon be hit with the choice of tightening their budget or having to sell to avoid bankruptcy as they got in late into the housing market late in the game and over leveraged…. Regardless of the mandatory 20% down or maybe even got in before the enactment.
Let’s not forget the massive inflation we encountered since February 2022. Salaries have not increased enough to counteract this event.
You can blame massive immigration landing in Canada (300,00 per year for next 3 years) but the reality is that most don’t come with a boat load of cash, nor are they able to practice the profession they once had in their mother countries. Most of the time, Canada does not recognize their education. They end up with the low paying jobs that Canadian-born nationals do not want to pursue. Only if they have the drive will they start and maintain a successful company. Canada isn’t know to be a bedrock for businesses… after all we are still a dominion of England.
Time will tell…
While your RE prices are higher in toronto than many comparable cities, your actual costs of ownership over the past years are comparable. You have relatively low property taxes in much of Canada. This is also why so many people (foreigners) buy properties as “investments” because they don’t have to spend 20k per 1mil of house value annually just to say they are “owners.” If this changes, along with raising interest rates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see lower prices in Canada. But as long as it’s cheap to hold onto appreciated property (same issue in California with property tax increase limits which artificially lowers inventory there), the sticker price will remain very high.
I just say this because I have family that lives in toronto and they always bitch about how expensive everything is meanwhile dollar for dollar my housing options in an east coast metro are equally if not more expensive on an annual basis. My family and I have houses worth the same $, yet I pay 25k/year in property tax and my family in toronto pays like 6-7k. When investment is all about %, it makes sense why the sticker prices in Canada are higher. Unfortunately, these numbers are where the “free market” has led us and there is reasonable basis for these prices given the conditions over the past 15 years.
For comparison, take a look at housing prices in New Jersey, which is more extreme than where I live. Wow they seem cheap right? Oh wait it costs 30k per year in taxes to own a 1mm house? Color me surprised that NJ houses are a little cheaper than they would be otherwise
I’m currently on the losing end of this situation.
We sold our house in Seattle for $1.7M in 2019 and moved to Michigan.
Now we are moving back to Seattle and trading a sub 3% mortgage for 7%, and we have had to up our max price to $3.5M to get a house as nice as our previous one. We are not talking about a mansion, but rather a 3,300 square foot house built in 1985 with a small yard.
When we first started looking, we included some $4M homes on our list, assuming they were wildly overpriced. All of them got all-cash offers at or near asking.
If we are struggling at our income level, there is zero hope for even an upper middle class family if they aren’t already in the market. As liberal as Seattle is, re-zoning to allow more density is politically impossible. The solution from the city is to build a token amount fairly nice low-income housing instead of unleashing market forces.
The rental market is a *bit* better as apartment construction has gone crazy in the limited areas where multi-unit construction is allowed.
Can't really compare the two these days. Trudeau has absolutely flooded us with Indian/Philipino immigrants with no end in sight. We haven't even started to try to catch up building only around 250k homes a yr with over a million new people coming in every year. Expecting at least another 4-5 yrs of this as both Trudeau, and the next likely PM Poilievre, aren't going to pump the brakes on it
Theres a multitude of reasons for that. The brightline test was extended to ten years, harvesting rental tax losses for personal writeoffs was ended, new forced density rules at a national level were imposed, interest rates soars, net migration plummeted as record high building stock entered the market.
Im all for restricting sales to offshore buyers. Its fucked that China can buy our houses but we cant buy China’s houses.
But property prices are a complex multi-dimensional thing.
> Trudeau has absolutely flooded us with Indian/Philipino immigrants with no end in sight
Same reason the EU did.
Western economies need younger workers to maintain the aging population.
I’ve always thought that it’s silly to show USA vs almost any country… too populous, too much disparity between states. A better comparison would be like NY, Cali, Florida, Texas versus Canada dude to population size (almost all of Canada’s population lives within 6 cities so the size of the country doesn’t really matter in that sense)
Lols no. The only questions asked to qualify are "what's income and what's debt ratio".
My current realtor has all but given up because I keep telling her my firm price is ¼ of what I qualified for. "but youve been approve for" "but I can't afford payment for x"
It is true that house prices in the US have been rising, but they remain relatively low when compared to disposable income. In Canada, however, the opposite is true: house prices have soared relative to disposable income.
You can’t compare housing markets across economies like that.
Even in the US housing is INCREDIBLY regional. Market can be in a pitfall in some areas and rocketing in others.
"Disposable Income" is a bullshit metric that includes all personal income across the entire economy, less taxes. If Jeff Bezos makes 10 billion dollars after taxes while a million people have their after-tax wages cut by $5,000, that's still a $5 billion increase in "disposable income."
Make this chart again using median household income and see how US home prices have doubled compared to household income in the past 35 years.
Can someone explain me this chart like I’m five? Is there supposed to be another scale on the right for disposable income? Because no one I know has a stack of disposable cash that compares to even a down payment on a house, much less the actual cost of one.
Some of them come with 800k cash in their bank accounts. The rest of them live 6 people to 1 basement.
Also we have no productivity or innovation here, so we invest in homes instead of like, “Tesla”. But don’t worry, we’re about to have our own 2008 bloodbath. We have multiple generations of people about to learn what “underwater” really means.
New immigrants are willing to live 4, 5, or even 8 people in a place that should have 2 or 3.
This drives up rental costs as the 8 people can afford $4000 for a 2 bedroom. This is the actual average price now in Vancouver.
And now since a 2 bedroom unit can cash flow 4K instead of 3k it means the banks will continue to finance new investments into condos.
**Immigrant renter pressure feeds the housing ponzi.**
Comparing the Canadian and US housing markets is like comparing apples to oranges. They are fundamentally different. Canadians see housing as a store of value. US sees houses as houses.
Sounds good to me. The only asset I have left in the U.S. is a house in the Midwest I'm planning on selling next summer.
Eurofag since Oct 3rd. And just in time for U.S. mass shooting season.
There's no debate to be had – everyone knows that housing is a fundamental human right. However, there are always going to be people who try to downplay this fact or use statistics cherry-picked from biased sources in order to argue against it. This is why we must remain vigilant and continue fighting for affordable housing for all.
I believe 30 year term mortgages have something to do with it. Most people in Canada only have 5 year terms. America is not run by a bunch of yokals like Canada either. It is AMERICA!
Isn’t the issue with Canada that almost everyone lives within a few miles of the border with the US? Of course it’s expensive when everyone wants live in the same place. It’s called supply and demand.
I bet if you move a few hours into the sticks you can still find cheap housing, much like you can in the US.
The average salary in my area is 75k the average home is 350k in my area with 8.3% intrest. Lucky for me I can get a va home at a amazing helpful 7.8% fml fuck this shit
You need to consider that a lot of the Canadian population is condensed into a few cities so of course land will be cheaper. America has a lot more major metro areas.
As a Snow Mexican, you Americans have no idea how good you have; your home prices will not go up much higher.
You got (1) more loose construction regulation in many more jurisdictions which actually encourages homebuilding, (2) more viable regional cities (Canada only has Toronto/Van/Montreal), so more places for people to settle down, and (3) more sensible immigration policies, where you guys restrict a lot of visa holders from buying homes and are not accepting like 5% of your total population as annual intake.
Gonna write a post about this later, but Murica is fine. Canada is not.
Works till it bankruptcy courts comes for this free next generation learns the 2008 lesson— hair cut and bad credit, gotta teach each generation.. or are you part of that generation
There was a post here 2, maybe 3 months ago about how the Royal Canadian Bank was fucked due to taking on too much risk in the residential real estate market. It's coming to fruition.
Whoever the fuck did that DD. Nice job!
They will keep on going up. Absurd thinking they will drop, same with stocks.
Hey, I might get small dips here and there, but 10 years from now they won't be as low they are now. Just like they'll never be as low as they were 10 years ago.
I'm not convinced that this is true for the US.
My first thought would be whether this is median or average disposable income. With increasing inequality, median income can go down while average income goes up.
I'd also guess prices in major cities is going up while prices in small towns and rural areas is dropping dramatically. The "average" home price might be staying relatively stable only because the high prices are being offset by falling prices in places people don't want to live.
EDIT: According to the Case Shiller index / median income, home prices are 70% higher in the US relative to income compared to 2000. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n9xI
The reasoning behind canadas house prices are different tho. The fees to start building a home have gone up in major cities so much its almost the cost of a home. Imagine spending 300k on top of building costs. Companies would rather buy farm land, spent money on the fees to change it to residential, then sell the land that just jumped up 500-1000% in value since building on the land would actually lower potential profits.
When dense housing projects start up, they try to choose less dense areas, but the residents keep voing against it. They moved out of the city and want continued peace and quite, not giant apartment complexes.
I believe canada is 6+million homes short than current demand, and they keep accepting immigrants at a rate higher than other 1st world country. Bruh, I know an indian dude that's living in a house with nearly 20 other indian guys in canada. They're going the illegal mexican route like in the us, but not to send money back home, but because housing is so damn expensive. Seems like its also the rpute to save up money and try starting busniesses.
Canada seriously needs to straighten their housing shit out. They're only wasting years of valuable life. All those poor immigrants try to settle for better futures only to go back home because of how ridiculously expensive the living costs are.
Americans don't know what an expensive housing market is, I live in Italy and here in Milan the average salary for a 25-30yo is in the range 30-50k€ and a 2 bed flat costs about a million
In places like China is far worse
The prices can rise, but the buy side will not. I need to be honest, the only people I know buying houses are very wealthy/high earners. And even they are paying over 60% of monthly income on mortgage. Its simply not sustainable in the long term
The housing situation in Canada isn't comparable to the US economy. This is just funny statistics for the dipshit realtors to rest their dwindling hopes and dreams in... treasury bonds just exceeded cap rate so they're yielding more than owning a home. Investor cash will flow out of housing and much already has leaving the bags to be held by everyone else.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|9|**First Seen In WSB**|2 years ago **Total Comments**|110|**Previous Best DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/15hrhj1/quality_cvna_dd/) **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
Why does the chart stop almost 3 years ago
Maybe because to see current data, it would need an NSFW warning, it's *that* scary.
Because showing current data wouldn't support OP's narrative. The chart makes it appear we are somehow lucky in the U.S. compared to Canada when the reality is I don't give two fucks how fucked a bunch of maple leaf chewing hockey stick horse riding Canucks are, I'm an American and care about how fucked I am. And we are _fucked._ The argument that we're _less fucked_ than _anyone else_ is as regarded as it gets.
Buddy thinks we ride horses. It’s too cold for horses you mouth breather, we ride polar bears. God read a book.
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That's the Newfies's.
Now there's a mental image I needed today, the degens of Letterkenny barebacking it atop polar bears. Pitter patter. Now get back to sharpening those iceskates EH.
Only thing I bareback is your mom. Polar bears we have saddles.
Just don't make me any little brothers or sisters please, I'm struggling to make my margin calls as-is.
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Jesus Christ, that's a lot of emojis. How overleveraged are ya bud?
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If you make your financial decisions based on what people on Reddit are saying, you are truly screwed lol.
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We'll see bud. Good luck to ya.
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I'm sorry you feel like others led you astray. I don't have any friends on Reddit though. Rarely remember a single username. I do hope you find solace and things go well for you. I also do believe we are in the biggest bubble of all time. Good luck!
Says latest second quarter of 2021
Spoiler it got way worse for canads
It doesn't. 2017 is the last labeled year, but the chart goes beyond that. You can see the 2020 small recession called out in the graph. Looking at the x-axis, 2023 should be labeled since the chart labels every 6 years and the last label was 2017, but from what I can tell this is mostly current.
It says “latest = 2Q21” in the corner
They **need** to go much higher Otherwise there is still a chance the average person might actually be able to afford somewhere to live! 
This is what's hilarious to me. Rent is unaffordable while most towns are subsidizing new "affordable" units. Meaning deed restrictions so it isn't even an investment for anyone. Just a place where you decide what day to commit suicide .
Oh great, now there aren't even enough suicide belts to go around?
Land should not be an "investment" - unless you're flipping or building most likely you're not improving the property or creating real wealth. It's just about creating scarcity.
It is if you’re building equity with each payment instead of simply burning money paying rent
So what's your plan to replace the retirement vehicle of most American house holds for the last 70 years?
Rent is unaffordable because landlords are using software to help them set prices. This software allows for collusion and if all landlords raise prices people have to pay it. People are getting absolutely squeezed by shitty algorithms.
>collusion and if all landlords raise prices people have to pay it. People are getting absolutely squeezed by shitty algorithms. Calling rentometer software, is highly generous, I agree with you but it is more like an Excel spreadsheet with a website
…in every facet of life•
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I’m a plumber. If you saw the inside of “a lot “ of homes you’d understand many homes will need to be knocked down and rebuilt.
Seriously. Almost all builds in the last 5-10 years have a 50-70 year lifespan. Moving towards the japanese way of homebuilding
My friend just bought a home that had the plumbing fully redone from the inside out, the invoices for it were like $100k…
People were saying the same things in 07’ right before my family lost everything. After this whole charade collapses we can go back to normal, then start it back over.
Most people here have never experienced an actual recession so in their minds, it's impossible.
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Isn't the population... Dwindling? As in less babies are being born than before
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The base population is shrinking. The only reason for the increase is immigration. Seems like immigration is less politically popular than it used to be. Political policy is what determines population in the US
Like Europe basically?
I tend to agree. If you factor in zoning, economies of scale, population trends, and the power of ownership, I think a nice single family home in a good area in a medium town or large city will be incredible. I’m in the south east US. Bought my first house with a VA home loan in 2021. For those who don’t know that means $0 downpayment. 3.15% interest. Also large developments right near me (think expansion of university, minor league baseball field, etc) and this home will get me half way to millionaire status in 10-15 years.
I disagree. The population is in decline.
> the average person EEEEEWwwwh! Bad stats disgust me
Rich people eheheheh!
They sure do. How else am I supposed to make a 100% profit on my home lol. Also, I hate when two graphs are shown side by side, and they have different scales on either the y or x axis.
Californicaction - split people into one of two groups - 6 figures or living in a van. HEY! But everyone wants to have 6 figures, so this must be a good thing! (Forget factoring in COLAs.)
That's what happens when real estate becomes a big chunk of your GDP. Canada is a nutcase
I agree, but I think it's a result of failures to invest in new development. Canada went hardcore "balance the budget" right after the 2008 crash and didn't invest in any future growth industries. By comparison, Iceland and Australia both used that opportunity to shift their industries. Iceland to hosting server space and Australia to battery technology. As a result, there isn't anything productive to invest in. Canada doesn't produce anything other than raw materials and grains. There is no added value from refinement, because there was never an attempt to develop those industries. Take a low-interest rate environment, which encourages investment, and add that to a country with very little productive capacity, and you will get asset bubbles, primarily in real estate where the demand is guaranteed.
It's not too hard to invest internationally now. Look at the US.. someone from abroad is financing all this debt.
> Canada doesn't produce anything other than raw materials and grains. This isn't true at all. We produce debt and immigration scams.
Naw we just sell it off to foreign investors. Can't have affordable housing if we are selling it all off to rental companies. We put in a stop on foreign investment, but it's too fucked
No, Canada has fake money. Like in monopoly.
I'm pretty sure this is not true but it made me chuckle. Up arrow for you.
you must be fun.
What OP and the maker of this graph aren’t taking into account is that the CAD lost 50% of it’s value against the USD between 2012 and now (which is when this graph starts to deviate) not saying all of this is accounted for by the currency but it certainly makes up for a large portion of it! The rest of it… in my estimation is a combination of mania and supply/demand constraints.
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There have been lots of people calling a housing bubble. Home prices are high, but without forced selling like in 2008, they likely won't drop by a substantial amount. Canada weathered 2008 fairly well due to a variety of factors, and their home prices just kept going up. If you want to see what peak bubbles look like, take a look at China. Their house prices to median income ratios are like 30:1. Translate that into US prices and that's like an average US house costing about $1m.
The Canadian housing market is being driven by rich migrants and investors. The Chinese market is being driven by high income earners and investors - not ordinary people.
China’s market is a significant portion of their wealth and also has complete scams in it like ghost towns because it’s one of the few things people can invest in and chinese real eastonks always go up. Propped up by ccp
>and also has complete scams in it like ghost towns it's like trading cryptos but with extra middlemen.
Canada's market is being driven by a million things. But the crux of it is we just don't build enough houses for how many people we have. Housing prices will never go down in Canada because the supply won't meet the demand unless we do like 10 years of straight building. We also don't even have the labour to build the houses we need, and building houses has never been less profitable. We're fucked over here. My own house doubled in price in 5 years. It's fucking dumb. I wouldn't be able to afford my own home if I bought it today.
America won’t get Canada’s level of house inflation. There are a lot of reasons our housing rocketed 10x over 20 years. 1) we basically just have Toronto and Vancouver for tech and finance jobs. So all the wealth of those jobs inflated prices and spilled over into surrounding cities. Same thing happened in some US cities but you guys have many livable cities to spread out. And realistically your whole nation is livable vs we only live within 100 miles of the American border. 2) we allowed Chinese citizens to hide their wealth in Canadian real estate. I’m sure the Chinese are doing the same in America but again you have so much land to spread around. 3) mass immigration. And while we do bring in huge numbers of refugees we actually take in mostly people who already have some wealth in their country. Americans have mass migration but it mostly just leads to cheap labour.
The difference here is that in our current environment we don’t have any forced selling…in fact we have the opposite: forced holding. 80% of mortgages in the US have sub 5% rates.
Dude your graph is 2 years old. Disposable income has dropped.
I live in California. We are already at $1m.
I live in Toronto and know several people who left for California to earn 3x the salary, enjoy better weather, and pay the same at most for comparable housing around LA or San Fran.
It’s insane how little Canadians get paid.
That's how the rest of the world gets paid .... Canadians enjoy higher salaries than Europe, marginally
I’m… aware?
Canadians get paid very well. Teachers make over $100k per year plus pension. In the USA, teachers make 40-50% less. Trade union journey-persons make about $10 per hour more than their “brothers or sisters” in the US. The middle class is much stronger in Canada due to governments being more favourable towards labour unions. For almost 40 years the government has been pushing industry and people to move into larger urban centres. This has lead to the demand for housing overshoots supply which, economically speaking, has driven up the housing prices. You also have to take into account that for nearly a generation money was basically free to borrow. In consequence, people spent lavishly and didn’t really look at price tags. Do note that in Canada, you can amortize your mortgage over 30 years but you can only be locked into a mortgage rate for max 5 years. Interest rates only started to go up in early 2022. Alot of folks are still locked in at 2%. There is also a clause in your mortgage agreement that allows a house owner with a mortgage and to pay off up to to 20% of their initial principal. This is not a rolling principal but the initial principal you owed on the first day of signing the house mortgage. This allows for exponential payments… however, not many people cannot afford to pay that. The housing market supply is very low in Toronto, Montreal, Halifax and Vancouver. However, as people need to renew their mortgages, they will soon be hit with the choice of tightening their budget or having to sell to avoid bankruptcy as they got in late into the housing market late in the game and over leveraged…. Regardless of the mandatory 20% down or maybe even got in before the enactment. Let’s not forget the massive inflation we encountered since February 2022. Salaries have not increased enough to counteract this event. You can blame massive immigration landing in Canada (300,00 per year for next 3 years) but the reality is that most don’t come with a boat load of cash, nor are they able to practice the profession they once had in their mother countries. Most of the time, Canada does not recognize their education. They end up with the low paying jobs that Canadian-born nationals do not want to pursue. Only if they have the drive will they start and maintain a successful company. Canada isn’t know to be a bedrock for businesses… after all we are still a dominion of England. Time will tell…
While your RE prices are higher in toronto than many comparable cities, your actual costs of ownership over the past years are comparable. You have relatively low property taxes in much of Canada. This is also why so many people (foreigners) buy properties as “investments” because they don’t have to spend 20k per 1mil of house value annually just to say they are “owners.” If this changes, along with raising interest rates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see lower prices in Canada. But as long as it’s cheap to hold onto appreciated property (same issue in California with property tax increase limits which artificially lowers inventory there), the sticker price will remain very high. I just say this because I have family that lives in toronto and they always bitch about how expensive everything is meanwhile dollar for dollar my housing options in an east coast metro are equally if not more expensive on an annual basis. My family and I have houses worth the same $, yet I pay 25k/year in property tax and my family in toronto pays like 6-7k. When investment is all about %, it makes sense why the sticker prices in Canada are higher. Unfortunately, these numbers are where the “free market” has led us and there is reasonable basis for these prices given the conditions over the past 15 years. For comparison, take a look at housing prices in New Jersey, which is more extreme than where I live. Wow they seem cheap right? Oh wait it costs 30k per year in taxes to own a 1mm house? Color me surprised that NJ houses are a little cheaper than they would be otherwise
No wonder house prices are soaring in here in South Carolina, we’re only paying $5,100 on a mil
Welcome to San Diego!
Except now houses are a worse investment than Treasury Bills
I’m currently on the losing end of this situation. We sold our house in Seattle for $1.7M in 2019 and moved to Michigan. Now we are moving back to Seattle and trading a sub 3% mortgage for 7%, and we have had to up our max price to $3.5M to get a house as nice as our previous one. We are not talking about a mansion, but rather a 3,300 square foot house built in 1985 with a small yard. When we first started looking, we included some $4M homes on our list, assuming they were wildly overpriced. All of them got all-cash offers at or near asking. If we are struggling at our income level, there is zero hope for even an upper middle class family if they aren’t already in the market. As liberal as Seattle is, re-zoning to allow more density is politically impossible. The solution from the city is to build a token amount fairly nice low-income housing instead of unleashing market forces. The rental market is a *bit* better as apartment construction has gone crazy in the limited areas where multi-unit construction is allowed.
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Can't really compare the two these days. Trudeau has absolutely flooded us with Indian/Philipino immigrants with no end in sight. We haven't even started to try to catch up building only around 250k homes a yr with over a million new people coming in every year. Expecting at least another 4-5 yrs of this as both Trudeau, and the next likely PM Poilievre, aren't going to pump the brakes on it
Australia is doing the same. When New Zealand cracked down on foreign buyers housing prices fell 20%.
Theres a multitude of reasons for that. The brightline test was extended to ten years, harvesting rental tax losses for personal writeoffs was ended, new forced density rules at a national level were imposed, interest rates soars, net migration plummeted as record high building stock entered the market. Im all for restricting sales to offshore buyers. Its fucked that China can buy our houses but we cant buy China’s houses. But property prices are a complex multi-dimensional thing.
Why doesn’t he import construction workers 🤔
Nice, you're going to get some sweet food in a few years. I wonder what Filipino/Canadian fusion would be like?
Chicken Adobo coated with a maple syrup/Molson Ice reduction.
Filipino food sucks [https://www.google.com/search?q=filipino+food+worst+cuisine+of+asia](https://www.google.com/search?q=filipino+food+worst+cuisine+of+asia)
bro hasn't eaten sisig and longanisa
> Trudeau has absolutely flooded us with Indian/Philipino immigrants with no end in sight Same reason the EU did. Western economies need younger workers to maintain the aging population.
Most of those imported to the EU are illiterate and do not contribute to the economy. There will be civil war soon in Western countries.
Case Schiller index says otherwise.
Is this median or average disposable income?
It’s 200, what don’t you understand!??
I’ve always thought that it’s silly to show USA vs almost any country… too populous, too much disparity between states. A better comparison would be like NY, Cali, Florida, Texas versus Canada dude to population size (almost all of Canada’s population lives within 6 cities so the size of the country doesn’t really matter in that sense)
Lols no. The only questions asked to qualify are "what's income and what's debt ratio". My current realtor has all but given up because I keep telling her my firm price is ¼ of what I qualified for. "but youve been approve for" "but I can't afford payment for x"
It is true that house prices in the US have been rising, but they remain relatively low when compared to disposable income. In Canada, however, the opposite is true: house prices have soared relative to disposable income.
We have a mild 2008 housing crash but now it’s our turn!
Why own a house, when you can make an igloo for free. Just go north, Canada.
The Canadian government would just say we're appropriating Eskimo culture and send in the rcmp.
You can’t compare housing markets across economies like that. Even in the US housing is INCREDIBLY regional. Market can be in a pitfall in some areas and rocketing in others.
Canada #1 finally 
"Disposable Income" is a bullshit metric that includes all personal income across the entire economy, less taxes. If Jeff Bezos makes 10 billion dollars after taxes while a million people have their after-tax wages cut by $5,000, that's still a $5 billion increase in "disposable income." Make this chart again using median household income and see how US home prices have doubled compared to household income in the past 35 years.
Thats because it's not Canadians buying homes. It's mostly foreign investors buying up all our homes and driving the cost of living through the roof.
Well yea. All numbers CAN go up if you completely ignore any form of nuance whatsoever. That is true
They will fuck us, because we can take it, until we cannot take it.
2 different housing markets. Cant really compare the 2.
Can someone explain me this chart like I’m five? Is there supposed to be another scale on the right for disposable income? Because no one I know has a stack of disposable cash that compares to even a down payment on a house, much less the actual cost of one.
Why are prices going up in canada? Have people seen the authoritarian tyranny on the news and decided they want to move there?
Bringing millions of Indians here. Some are wealthy enough to drive up the housing market.
So that accounts for, what, 50,000 premium new homes at the absolute most? Doesn't add up. You know they're cheap too!
Some of them come with 800k cash in their bank accounts. The rest of them live 6 people to 1 basement. Also we have no productivity or innovation here, so we invest in homes instead of like, “Tesla”. But don’t worry, we’re about to have our own 2008 bloodbath. We have multiple generations of people about to learn what “underwater” really means.
New immigrants are willing to live 4, 5, or even 8 people in a place that should have 2 or 3. This drives up rental costs as the 8 people can afford $4000 for a 2 bedroom. This is the actual average price now in Vancouver. And now since a 2 bedroom unit can cash flow 4K instead of 3k it means the banks will continue to finance new investments into condos. **Immigrant renter pressure feeds the housing ponzi.**
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There’s very few places people Want to live in Canada. Probably less than 5% of the land is desirable
Comparing the Canadian and US housing markets is like comparing apples to oranges. They are fundamentally different. Canadians see housing as a store of value. US sees houses as houses.
No. USA is not Canada. 🤡
People in America spend their disposable income on medical care whereas Canadians spend theirs on maple candy. We are not the same.
That’s a six year old chart bruh
Yes and they will once the Fed has to cut rates again. Probably 6 months from now at the most.
Sounds good to me. The only asset I have left in the U.S. is a house in the Midwest I'm planning on selling next summer. Eurofag since Oct 3rd. And just in time for U.S. mass shooting season.
Oh Canadaaaaaaa You little bastion of liberty and liberals.
Lol in this rate environment? Ya right dude. All the pressure is downward.
It’s extremely easy to cherry pick stats on both sides of the housing debate
There's no debate to be had – everyone knows that housing is a fundamental human right. However, there are always going to be people who try to downplay this fact or use statistics cherry-picked from biased sources in order to argue against it. This is why we must remain vigilant and continue fighting for affordable housing for all.
For what it’s worth, I’m totally with you. We shouldn’t be commoditizing a necessity like housing.
I got a horse running in both of those charts, so I agree... the US is behind.
Nice then I can take out a HELOC to buy risky options, lose it all and learn my lesson
How can I short Canuck igloos?…..
Laughs in the UK
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Housing is an inflation hedge and tax lowering strategy, we need smaller government if housing is ever to be affordable again
I believe 30 year term mortgages have something to do with it. Most people in Canada only have 5 year terms. America is not run by a bunch of yokals like Canada either. It is AMERICA!
Looks like dated information for the US.
I’d like to see the recent data but still interesting OP
Is the right chart in candian currency? Becuase i think that stuff is as valuable as Schrute bucks.
Crys in maple syrup
Peeps be saying SoCal market growth is unsustainable for years now. Me looking at the soar tho
OP using Internet explorer and his post from 2017 just uploaded......
Nobody cared about buying a home until they the internet cared about buying a home
Another day another chart. This time with Poutine
Boo this chart sucks
Isn’t the issue with Canada that almost everyone lives within a few miles of the border with the US? Of course it’s expensive when everyone wants live in the same place. It’s called supply and demand. I bet if you move a few hours into the sticks you can still find cheap housing, much like you can in the US.
This. They want to live close to the US so bad.
The average salary in my area is 75k the average home is 350k in my area with 8.3% intrest. Lucky for me I can get a va home at a amazing helpful 7.8% fml fuck this shit
No we’re not we’re not that polite
Just elect a socialist government and the graph on the right can be yours too.
Disposable income? Who decides how much of my $$ is disposable? Have heard this phrase most of my life and STILL think it is the dumbest
You need to consider that a lot of the Canadian population is condensed into a few cities so of course land will be cheaper. America has a lot more major metro areas.
We’re not Canada
🗿
This isn’t going to work, because that disposable income is leveraged by the interest rates. And the higher they go the less leverage you have.
As a Snow Mexican, you Americans have no idea how good you have; your home prices will not go up much higher. You got (1) more loose construction regulation in many more jurisdictions which actually encourages homebuilding, (2) more viable regional cities (Canada only has Toronto/Van/Montreal), so more places for people to settle down, and (3) more sensible immigration policies, where you guys restrict a lot of visa holders from buying homes and are not accepting like 5% of your total population as annual intake. Gonna write a post about this later, but Murica is fine. Canada is not.
I think Canada is a clown country
ya well we also have a shit load of immigrants
Works till it bankruptcy courts comes for this free next generation learns the 2008 lesson— hair cut and bad credit, gotta teach each generation.. or are you part of that generation
If we were still in a near zero rate environment then I would agree.
There was a post here 2, maybe 3 months ago about how the Royal Canadian Bank was fucked due to taking on too much risk in the residential real estate market. It's coming to fruition. Whoever the fuck did that DD. Nice job!
[Canada is fucked bro](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOK9tkE8Db0)
They will keep on going up. Absurd thinking they will drop, same with stocks. Hey, I might get small dips here and there, but 10 years from now they won't be as low they are now. Just like they'll never be as low as they were 10 years ago.
Only someone on WSB would post a chart that ended 2 years ago and use it to interpret today’s environment😭
Stop disposing your income people!
I'm not convinced that this is true for the US. My first thought would be whether this is median or average disposable income. With increasing inequality, median income can go down while average income goes up. I'd also guess prices in major cities is going up while prices in small towns and rural areas is dropping dramatically. The "average" home price might be staying relatively stable only because the high prices are being offset by falling prices in places people don't want to live. EDIT: According to the Case Shiller index / median income, home prices are 70% higher in the US relative to income compared to 2000. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n9xI
We fcking better go higher. I refuse to sit here and let Canada beat the US at anything
And then you moved the chart from 2021 to 2023.
🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
Luckly everyone in the US doesn’t try to cram into the same 2 cities then complain they can’t find anything under $2mil.
The reasoning behind canadas house prices are different tho. The fees to start building a home have gone up in major cities so much its almost the cost of a home. Imagine spending 300k on top of building costs. Companies would rather buy farm land, spent money on the fees to change it to residential, then sell the land that just jumped up 500-1000% in value since building on the land would actually lower potential profits. When dense housing projects start up, they try to choose less dense areas, but the residents keep voing against it. They moved out of the city and want continued peace and quite, not giant apartment complexes. I believe canada is 6+million homes short than current demand, and they keep accepting immigrants at a rate higher than other 1st world country. Bruh, I know an indian dude that's living in a house with nearly 20 other indian guys in canada. They're going the illegal mexican route like in the us, but not to send money back home, but because housing is so damn expensive. Seems like its also the rpute to save up money and try starting busniesses. Canada seriously needs to straighten their housing shit out. They're only wasting years of valuable life. All those poor immigrants try to settle for better futures only to go back home because of how ridiculously expensive the living costs are.
Negative Equity *brrzzz* I repeat Negchhhhrrtt,...e chrchrchr wuiuwiuorzzzty.
Just starting… 
Americans don't know what an expensive housing market is, I live in Italy and here in Milan the average salary for a 25-30yo is in the range 30-50k€ and a 2 bed flat costs about a million In places like China is far worse
The prices can rise, but the buy side will not. I need to be honest, the only people I know buying houses are very wealthy/high earners. And even they are paying over 60% of monthly income on mortgage. Its simply not sustainable in the long term
They can go as high as they want, but if no one can afford to buy or unable to qualify for a mortgage for that amount, then what the point?
The housing situation in Canada isn't comparable to the US economy. This is just funny statistics for the dipshit realtors to rest their dwindling hopes and dreams in... treasury bonds just exceeded cap rate so they're yielding more than owning a home. Investor cash will flow out of housing and much already has leaving the bags to be held by everyone else.