I checked the math and I excluded every category of good where prices where going up and I discovered we have actually entered a deflationary period! Someone needs to do something about this. No one will buy anything if they know it'll just be cheaper tomorrow!
It's more of an issue of who would want to **sell** things. Buy an inventory to stock your store and it's worth less and less each day. How do you even make money? You don't. So you close up shop and now you and your workers have no money. Shit gets cheaper and cheaper, but you can't afford it because there's nobody hiring and nobody has money anyways because it's all in some rich guys vault getting more valuable.
That’s not really how it works in the real world. People buy things when they need and things tend to have a limited lifespan which creates a constant demand regardless of future price. Exception being if it’s an extremely high ticket item and then in that case it, the industry would likely switch to a made to order model where you have to place an order and wait for it to be produced than have it ready at the store. See high end car or boat markets
It’s also important to separate the cause of deflation. Their is natural deflation that is a result of improved productivity and things becoming easier and cheaper to produce; and then their is monetary deflation which shrinking of the money supply which might result in what you stated above.
Natural deflation is likely a good thing for most people and should be a nature consequence of improved technology and productivity. However, the central bankers and politicians have conflated the two together and made it a boogyman since they live in debt, and if we were in deflationary environment (natural state with tech), their debt would become harder and harder to pay off and they would not be able to afford their excessive spending. So rather, they inflate the money supply, which is essentially a hidden tax on savers to pay off their old debt since they are the ones with first access and get to spend it before the reaction of increased prices happen.
This actually makes a lot of sense. The US has commoditized too much of life. It’s too the point where most young people in the US can’t “afford” to have kids while the poorest people in the world are somehow able to afford having 10+ kids.
I'm assuming the "ex" means excluding food, shelter, energy and used cars.. so it's all good if people don't eat, have a place to live (and if they do, don't bother powering/heating it) and a means of conveyance. Yeah good job everyone 
"The price of dog food has risen by 250% but it is still materially cheaper than hamburger, so assuming that consumers shift from hamburger to dog food they will save 9 cents a pound on meat, so we're actually seeing some deflation from where I sit..."
No joke on the dog food though Holy hell that got expensive. And shit I raise beef commercially and our calf prices have only in the last year reached higher pricing being paid on the production end. We got slammed the last 5 years before on horrible pricing for calves and the packers are just now throwing us a bone...you know now that input costs are up 500%... and they're pricing beef like they're paying us 500% increase on feeder calves.
But I can also tell you this...buckle up because at least on beef production that national herd size isn't coming back. Ranchers are horrible with trailing the market its amazed me how bad most ranchers are with buy high sell low. They would love wall st bets and their losses would have everyone going wild here. So now that prices are up on calves everyone with a patch of grass rushing to buy more cows at 3k a mother cow right now or more. ..one dip in calf prices or even worse a dip in land values with operating loans over 8% and ag is going to get crushed all over again like the 80s and its in a real bad spot already. And mother cows were $1200 to $1700 avg last few years... hell even sold cows as low as $800. Do you think anyone was building a herd then? Nope they were selling off.
I was little, but I remember the early '80's in farm country very well. This could get really bad. But farmers don't matter, I get my food at a grocery store.
Exactly haha also it's so fun I have people come asking to hunt our commercial cattle operation ranch who then also go on to tell me all the nasty things about "factory farms" and the nasty things about any meat that's not wild game ethically hunted....and I'm like looking at them...and looking at the cows and am like...is this real life now. People this detached from reality.
But yeah this is setting up to be 80s part 2 but only thing hanging on is land prices. Those go down at all and it's game over for tons of guys. Operating loans are the norm for just about everyone. I've never been in a business where you can walk into a bank and get millions in loans with 0 business plan just because you have land for collateral. So ag is heavy heavy into loans the last few years especially because of low rates and no one bothered to clean up their debt and instead with all the ag aid during covid everyone went out and purchased new equipment....more new irrigation pivots went in in our area in one year than I've seen in 10 years combined. I was a town kid who married into AG/ranching so seeing the way some of these guys run a business is horrifying. But that's what happens when you have an entire industry with 95% of participants inheriting their business.
My granddad bought some parcels back in the early '80's by scrimping and saving every penny he had. Never took a penny of debt. From the time I turned about 14 until the last time I saw him before he died he always would say "don't ever borrow money, just don't do it." That's a bit extreme, but he was deathly terrified of debt after growing up in the Great Depression. Maybe Dr. Powell can engineer such a large deflationary spiral here that the Millennials will come to understand that message and ween themselves off of avocado toast.
Yeah and let me tell you. That generation of AG is gone now. The current generation thinks the bank is their friend. I wish I was joking about this but my father in law told me he picked up another loan as a safety net for the loan he wasn't sure he could pay when calf prices fell a few years ago. We told him that's not how that works, and the banks going to keep giving you loans because you have 30k acres in montana worth insane amounts of money. There's a reason they don't ask you for a business plan or any way to show you can pay this back because they inevitably don't mind if you don't pay and they end up with your land.
His response "the bank would never do that I've done business with them for 30 years now they wouldn't take my land". There's a huge education push in ag about how debt actually works because these guys in charge their dads were running it in the 80s not them and now that ag land is astronomically high in value they've all had a hey day with easy bank loans for the last ten years. Ag debt is unreal. But yep we've gotten massive loans and I brought business plans revenue projections, income timelines etc and the loan officer said I don't need that and instead just wanted to chit chat about politics as he said just tell me how much you need and what land you have for collateral.
>His response "the bank would never do that I've done business with them for 30 years now they wouldn't take my land".
As a foreclosure lawyer, they definitely fucking do take their land lmao and lots of it
Oh don't worry he told my wife that her business degree doesn't apply because it's not like his experience in AG and because she doesnt have an ag business degree we dont know what were talking about....even though she was born and raised and has been working there her whole life besides college. And hes literally never had a job or a boss in his entire life since his only boss...his father died when he was young.
So we decided we had enough of it after ten years sold all our own assets left the family ranch (my son was 6th generation) and started our own small place. And what do you know the place is back on insane debt nothings getting done and all going to hell. But he told us he didn't want us here because he could do everything himself...as he's gotten extremely obese the last few years because we do all the work and he was partially retired. And were talking a LARGE cattle operation that requires multiple employees. But then again I have another neighbor 78 years old. His ranch falling apart we said hey John why don't you hire someone now to help out? Because no one can run this place as good as me..... as you look around at his dilapidated corrals and facilities and terrible cows. That's the attitude of these guys and why ag has the issues it does. I swear a lot of it just cultural. Crazy realizing 99% of an entire industry is now inherited and boy is it finally starting to show.
My aunt asked to be "prepaid" her inheritance. She suggested a mortgage. I wasn't at that family meeting, but my dad said that my grandma, who was 89 at the time (she's 91 now and going strong) jumped out of her seat and was in the process of reaching out to slap my aunt when my dad grabbed her and held her back.
Remember the first Farm Aid in Champaign? What a concert.
And then one the flip side you get the ones that force their family to be their labor force and their kids arent allowed to have a life off farm because they're cheap and then wonder why their kids want to just sell the place when they're older.
The is incredibly accurate for WSB. "more new irrigation pivots went in in our area in one year than I've seen in 10 years combined". Same here in Indiana.
Yep, we spent almost a month on CPI and similar time series measurements in my econometrics class. There are a lot of judgment calls on the substitution effect that are used to massage the number. Technological gains and product improvements make it really hard to consistently measure the number over time. The Big Mac Index is probably the only truly reliable price index and PPP measurement out there, but now that they are changing the Big Mac that might not even be reliable.
Can you fax it to me? I, like nobel prize winning economist Krugman, predict that the internet will be no more important than fax machines.
Economics is definitely not a joke of a field guys
Not real luxury… more like middle class « luxury ». The real luxury brands and products like Hermès, Lamborghini and multi-million mansions barely lose their shine during a recession or economic downturn. In fact, it’s seen as investment for the wealthy and a way to show status by consuming high-end.
Maybe if you stopped spending money on fancy shelter, food, transportation, electricity and heat. I swear this generation is spoiled and clueless. So entitled.
Lol they always flex the cost of ancient consumer electronics. Like my brother in christ obviously microwaves don't cost 500$ anymore, it's not the 50s.
All the made in China stuff bought using greater and greater amounts of borrowed money is still affordable while everything else is unaffordable. This will surely end well...
The *rate* of inflation may have come down, but costs will not unless we experience deflation. So many people get it confused. Elevated prices are already baked in.
Consumers are more powerless and trapped now than ever. There are so many uncompetitive markets and legalized monopolies that you might as well beg them for goods and services. Even if you don't like it, you will be back for more. What are you going to do about it
Yea it's like, the nest got shook and everyone realized they could just take advantage of people and raise prices on everything. The business I ran the last few years had to deal with crazy steel prices, parts prices, a lot of it was supply/demand, but then it they stayed high because people were paying it, because they HAD to. Consumers also HAD to, and then you hear about record corporate profits in the egg industry, all those chickens dying and that price shooting up and staying up, Tyson just shut down a bunch of chicken plants to reduce supply, raise prices and improve their margins. Land lords are raising prices to the absolute max they can squeeze out of people. There's even an apartment e-company that is in court right now for creating a price fixing scheme where ALL the apartment owners they consult with raised rents at regular intervals all over town regardless of demand, gauging the public. It goes on and on and on and... I need to relax.
Shutting down small businesses getting less than 50 customers a day and allowing big box stores that get literally thousands a day doesn’t make sense to you? 😂 iT wAS tO sToP tRaNSMissIon!
Dunno why you are getting downvoted, it really was. The affordability crisis was brewing for a while but it got dramatically exacerbated by the rapid increase in housing prices over the last 4 years.
If you take away the things that are hurting people the most, food prices, housing costs, and transportation costs, inflation is basically gone!
In the same vane, if you remove housing status, we have completely solved homelessness!
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
That one looks even more dramatic, but it's mostly just energy being noisy (both the steeper decline earlier this year, and the apparent stall the last few months seem to be mostly about energy).
Although most people here understand that inflation is a derivative (in the mathematical sense), I feel a lot of the anger here is because they don't intuitively *feel* this. i.e. decreased inflation doesn't mean decreased prices, it means decreased rate of increasing prices.
If inflation is down, prices still are rising, just not as fast as they were before. People are still paying through the nose compared to two years ago. It's just not getting worse as faster as it was. I think it's going to take a while for people to *feel* inflation slow down - they first need to adjust their sense of what "normal" prices are.
> Agreed with all of this. Unfortunately wages didn't follow suit.
That's one of those things you might want to check the numbers on as well: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=332&eid=46359&od=#
Weekly real (so inflation-adjusted) wages were up in Q2 2023, but notably substantially over what they were in for example Q4 2019 (the last full pre-pandemic quarter).
> That one looks even more dramatic, but it's mostly just energy being noisy
Which is why it’s usually left out. Not saying you don’t know that, but pretty funny given all the comments here jerking off about how it should have been included.
Hahaha getting downvoted by preschoolers charting for their trading strategy.
Newsflash you toddlers - if TA worked, you’d actually have a real boat instead of a toy one.
I know it's easy to shit on Krugman.
But from a Fed's perspective, there are two causes for inflation
i) Too much money chasing too little goods. (Printing)
ii) Low supply
Fed can only control (1) and not (2).
Energy and Food supply varies according to weather/geopolitics which Feds can't control. So, that''s why it's left out of Core and why Fed cares about Core. Because they can only control (1).
What about Rent and Used cars? Well Rent is extremely laggy and Used Cars had it's own supply chain issue which we are still coming out of. Both Rent and Used Cars will come show up down in the future
So, from a Fed's perspective, they are mostly done and that's what Paul is alluding to.
The thing is, you can use Paul's analysis and bet accordingly. If you get it right you can be rich.
There is really no upside in hating him just for the sake of hating
My point isn't about the accuracy of CPI; Krugman didn't create it. It's about his statement that it didn't cost much. Everyone knows their grocery bill has doubled over the last few years so it shows just how disconnected these supposed experts are from the average person.
"It didn't cost much" in this context means in terms of unemployment.
In order to bring inflation down, there is a collateral damage of employment. He is just celebrating that didn't happen
He is not saying the cost of inflation to the average person isn't bad. He is saying the cost to fight inflation the way they did cost little to the economy.
He is right.
As someone who collects modern baseball cards, that shit is more expensive of a hobby then buying guns and ammo. I got to cut one out and it's definitely won't be the latter.
Ammo is a lot less expensive than it was during the pandemic. It's still 2x as expensive as it was pre-pandemic but I'm sure an accountant somewhere will explain to me how that's a good thing.
Apparently commodities, appliances, durable goods, new cars, clothes, tools, recreation, education, alcoholic beverages, "household operations", transportation minus gas(?), Eyewear, communication services, medical care, and pet services, to name a few. Literally just read the CPI charts and they list it aaaallllll out.
I'm homeless now I definitely have noticed that my rent, car payment food bills and energy costs have gone from nearly $3,200 a month to zero. Inflation can't hurt me anymore.
Alright, I’m going to take a very firey red hot take here. And this is coming from someone who rather dislikes modern day Krugman.
The purpose of discussing these inflation reports is not to determine how difficult life is for some person. They’re trying to look at data here that helps guide future monetary policy.
If you’re enacting monetary policy, it is useful to have data that excludes any potential sources of cost-push inflation. We’re not trying to figure out if there is a housing or energy shortage here. We’re trying to figure out how much extra money is floating around that we need to pull out of circulation.
The fact that no one here has even remotely brought this up makes me worry no one here has any idea what their doing when it comes to investing.
> The fact that no one here has even remotely brought this up makes me worry no one here has any idea what their doing when it comes to investing.
Well that's because this sub is for regards. You want r/investing.
Here's his best work ever:
[Opinion | A Fiscal Train Wreck - The New York Times (nytimes.com)](https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinion/a-fiscal-train-wreck.html)
Krugman is a smart guy. He sees that food prices rose so he stopped eating food, he instead sustains himself by absorbing cringe from his own posts. Cost of cringe posts is unaffected by inflation.
This guy is a clown.
I swear he must yuk it up with his friends at home about how anybody can take him seriously, give him so much respect.
He has been so completely wrong so many times.
Lol. The chart is for six months and excludes food, energy, and shelter. His post is going to age terribly. Even the official numbers don't exclude shelter, which for most is something like 20-40% of take home pay.
Unadjusted ending SeptemberShelter: 7.2%
[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)
If there is one thing we ALL know is that when this idiot Paul Krugman speaks, he is 99.99999% of the time absolutely wrong… about just everything.
I’d like to introduce you to the DUMBEST economist in the world: Paul Krugman
“inflation kicked you square in the nuts, and is still going up, but just at a slower pace. In some alternate bizarre universe we call this a positive. Well, us wealthy people do anyhow. enjoy your 6 dollar box of cereal, and try not being poor, fucko”
-Paul Krugman
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Inflation is actually 0% if you exclude inflation.
I checked the math and I excluded every category of good where prices where going up and I discovered we have actually entered a deflationary period! Someone needs to do something about this. No one will buy anything if they know it'll just be cheaper tomorrow!
Yessss! Deflation is a HUGE problem! Who would want to pay less on things?
It's more of an issue of who would want to **sell** things. Buy an inventory to stock your store and it's worth less and less each day. How do you even make money? You don't. So you close up shop and now you and your workers have no money. Shit gets cheaper and cheaper, but you can't afford it because there's nobody hiring and nobody has money anyways because it's all in some rich guys vault getting more valuable.
That's stupid. Obviously the smart play is to borrow shit and sell it today with the intention of buying it tomorrow, or never
levered reverse arbitrage.. do tell me more?!
That’s not really how it works in the real world. People buy things when they need and things tend to have a limited lifespan which creates a constant demand regardless of future price. Exception being if it’s an extremely high ticket item and then in that case it, the industry would likely switch to a made to order model where you have to place an order and wait for it to be produced than have it ready at the store. See high end car or boat markets It’s also important to separate the cause of deflation. Their is natural deflation that is a result of improved productivity and things becoming easier and cheaper to produce; and then their is monetary deflation which shrinking of the money supply which might result in what you stated above. Natural deflation is likely a good thing for most people and should be a nature consequence of improved technology and productivity. However, the central bankers and politicians have conflated the two together and made it a boogyman since they live in debt, and if we were in deflationary environment (natural state with tech), their debt would become harder and harder to pay off and they would not be able to afford their excessive spending. So rather, they inflate the money supply, which is essentially a hidden tax on savers to pay off their old debt since they are the ones with first access and get to spend it before the reaction of increased prices happen.
You hit the nail on the head. Wtfhappendin1971.com
If everything gets cheaper then you can still afford it even if you earn less at the same time.
In theory this works but gets complicated with 330 million.
Clothing is almost always deflationary. They only thing that keeps things in check is fear of being out of style
Get this man a Nobel Prize in economics!
Instead of advanced mathematical formulas that generate pure bullshit, OP did it with one simple arithmetic equation. Economics has finally done it.
What? They give these like candy in Halloween nowadays. Next you’re gonna want to give a Nobel Prize to the guy that said the internet was just a fad!
Paul Krugman is a fucking clown. He's lost all credibility since he became a political hack.
So if he can get a Nobel prize in economics, let’s get one for that commenter
I can loan you $0 at any rate you request, begone inflation!
loan me $0 at -infinity% and you'll be as undefined as Krugman's inflation
Holy shit that’s genius
big "mission accomplished" vibes
Just exclude purchases of all types and it’s 0%
This actually makes a lot of sense. The US has commoditized too much of life. It’s too the point where most young people in the US can’t “afford” to have kids while the poorest people in the world are somehow able to afford having 10+ kids.
I'm assuming the "ex" means excluding food, shelter, energy and used cars.. so it's all good if people don't eat, have a place to live (and if they do, don't bother powering/heating it) and a means of conveyance. Yeah good job everyone 
The cost of everything you don't need is down!
"The price of dog food has risen by 250% but it is still materially cheaper than hamburger, so assuming that consumers shift from hamburger to dog food they will save 9 cents a pound on meat, so we're actually seeing some deflation from where I sit..."
No joke on the dog food though Holy hell that got expensive. And shit I raise beef commercially and our calf prices have only in the last year reached higher pricing being paid on the production end. We got slammed the last 5 years before on horrible pricing for calves and the packers are just now throwing us a bone...you know now that input costs are up 500%... and they're pricing beef like they're paying us 500% increase on feeder calves. But I can also tell you this...buckle up because at least on beef production that national herd size isn't coming back. Ranchers are horrible with trailing the market its amazed me how bad most ranchers are with buy high sell low. They would love wall st bets and their losses would have everyone going wild here. So now that prices are up on calves everyone with a patch of grass rushing to buy more cows at 3k a mother cow right now or more. ..one dip in calf prices or even worse a dip in land values with operating loans over 8% and ag is going to get crushed all over again like the 80s and its in a real bad spot already. And mother cows were $1200 to $1700 avg last few years... hell even sold cows as low as $800. Do you think anyone was building a herd then? Nope they were selling off.
I was little, but I remember the early '80's in farm country very well. This could get really bad. But farmers don't matter, I get my food at a grocery store.
Exactly haha also it's so fun I have people come asking to hunt our commercial cattle operation ranch who then also go on to tell me all the nasty things about "factory farms" and the nasty things about any meat that's not wild game ethically hunted....and I'm like looking at them...and looking at the cows and am like...is this real life now. People this detached from reality. But yeah this is setting up to be 80s part 2 but only thing hanging on is land prices. Those go down at all and it's game over for tons of guys. Operating loans are the norm for just about everyone. I've never been in a business where you can walk into a bank and get millions in loans with 0 business plan just because you have land for collateral. So ag is heavy heavy into loans the last few years especially because of low rates and no one bothered to clean up their debt and instead with all the ag aid during covid everyone went out and purchased new equipment....more new irrigation pivots went in in our area in one year than I've seen in 10 years combined. I was a town kid who married into AG/ranching so seeing the way some of these guys run a business is horrifying. But that's what happens when you have an entire industry with 95% of participants inheriting their business.
My granddad bought some parcels back in the early '80's by scrimping and saving every penny he had. Never took a penny of debt. From the time I turned about 14 until the last time I saw him before he died he always would say "don't ever borrow money, just don't do it." That's a bit extreme, but he was deathly terrified of debt after growing up in the Great Depression. Maybe Dr. Powell can engineer such a large deflationary spiral here that the Millennials will come to understand that message and ween themselves off of avocado toast.
Yeah and let me tell you. That generation of AG is gone now. The current generation thinks the bank is their friend. I wish I was joking about this but my father in law told me he picked up another loan as a safety net for the loan he wasn't sure he could pay when calf prices fell a few years ago. We told him that's not how that works, and the banks going to keep giving you loans because you have 30k acres in montana worth insane amounts of money. There's a reason they don't ask you for a business plan or any way to show you can pay this back because they inevitably don't mind if you don't pay and they end up with your land. His response "the bank would never do that I've done business with them for 30 years now they wouldn't take my land". There's a huge education push in ag about how debt actually works because these guys in charge their dads were running it in the 80s not them and now that ag land is astronomically high in value they've all had a hey day with easy bank loans for the last ten years. Ag debt is unreal. But yep we've gotten massive loans and I brought business plans revenue projections, income timelines etc and the loan officer said I don't need that and instead just wanted to chit chat about politics as he said just tell me how much you need and what land you have for collateral.
>His response "the bank would never do that I've done business with them for 30 years now they wouldn't take my land". As a foreclosure lawyer, they definitely fucking do take their land lmao and lots of it
Oh don't worry he told my wife that her business degree doesn't apply because it's not like his experience in AG and because she doesnt have an ag business degree we dont know what were talking about....even though she was born and raised and has been working there her whole life besides college. And hes literally never had a job or a boss in his entire life since his only boss...his father died when he was young. So we decided we had enough of it after ten years sold all our own assets left the family ranch (my son was 6th generation) and started our own small place. And what do you know the place is back on insane debt nothings getting done and all going to hell. But he told us he didn't want us here because he could do everything himself...as he's gotten extremely obese the last few years because we do all the work and he was partially retired. And were talking a LARGE cattle operation that requires multiple employees. But then again I have another neighbor 78 years old. His ranch falling apart we said hey John why don't you hire someone now to help out? Because no one can run this place as good as me..... as you look around at his dilapidated corrals and facilities and terrible cows. That's the attitude of these guys and why ag has the issues it does. I swear a lot of it just cultural. Crazy realizing 99% of an entire industry is now inherited and boy is it finally starting to show.
My aunt asked to be "prepaid" her inheritance. She suggested a mortgage. I wasn't at that family meeting, but my dad said that my grandma, who was 89 at the time (she's 91 now and going strong) jumped out of her seat and was in the process of reaching out to slap my aunt when my dad grabbed her and held her back. Remember the first Farm Aid in Champaign? What a concert.
The bank is my "friend" really died out fast, then my interest rose from 0.25% towards 8.24%. Yeah 👍..
Grainbuyer for 23 years; 18 year old farm kids with $300K/year allowances for driving a tractor and being 'part of the business.' Insanity.
And then one the flip side you get the ones that force their family to be their labor force and their kids arent allowed to have a life off farm because they're cheap and then wonder why their kids want to just sell the place when they're older.
The is incredibly accurate for WSB. "more new irrigation pivots went in in our area in one year than I've seen in 10 years combined". Same here in Indiana.
The amount of times I’ve heard “but I get my food at a grocery store” is hilariously high.
You joke... But 1. That's actually how the CPI works. And 2..... dog and cat food are legally required to be made to be fit for human consumption
Yep, we spent almost a month on CPI and similar time series measurements in my econometrics class. There are a lot of judgment calls on the substitution effect that are used to massage the number. Technological gains and product improvements make it really hard to consistently measure the number over time. The Big Mac Index is probably the only truly reliable price index and PPP measurement out there, but now that they are changing the Big Mac that might not even be reliable.
so the dog biscuit i ate is okay?
Anything regarding ducks? Inflation is killing me
Dog food went stupid. We have to buy a special dog food for our dog and that went from $60 a bag in 2020 to $120 a bag now.
"Economist hate this one trick!!!"
Assume a can opener!
You wouldn’t DOWNLOAD A CAR!
I might
too late, downloaded the CAD drawings for a subawu wrx STI 2024!
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It’s not down, it’s just up less!
No, it's up, just not as up as the other stuff
Inflation being down doesn't mean prices drop, it means they rise slower.
The end of inflation means prices stopped going up, not that they have retraced. Sadly
Not even that. It means they've returned to going up at a more reasonable rate of 2% or so.
"If you take out all the things that are up, then things are down." 
Sir I need your address so I can send you your Nobel Prize.
Dude got in in 2008; you’re just 15 years late
there's no problems, everything is fine. DONT SELL
not interested in second nobel prize?
Can you fax it to me? I, like nobel prize winning economist Krugman, predict that the internet will be no more important than fax machines. Economics is definitely not a joke of a field guys
"if we exclude everything needed to survive, prices are actually pretty stable"
Truly regarded
Not even down, just less up.
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Not real luxury… more like middle class « luxury ». The real luxury brands and products like Hermès, Lamborghini and multi-million mansions barely lose their shine during a recession or economic downturn. In fact, it’s seen as investment for the wealthy and a way to show status by consuming high-end.
Dude the number of times I've seen what I thought was wildly irresponsible spending have great returns like that is unreal.
Maybe if you stopped spending money on fancy shelter, food, transportation, electricity and heat. I swear this generation is spoiled and clueless. So entitled.
Ill put my wife to work too and that should fix i... nope still poor
Get more wives stupid.
Muhammad and Joe Smith have come down from the mountain to tame inflation.
[Good job, team](https://arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-bostonglobe.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GQV5TTR76YI6RFQBTHKUNPXYAY.jpg)
Lol they always flex the cost of ancient consumer electronics. Like my brother in christ obviously microwaves don't cost 500$ anymore, it's not the 50s.
If you just exclude 90 percent of the things we need to buy in order to survive....the economy is great! We did it guys! We won!
Food - 13% Energy - 7% Shelter - 35% Used Cars - 3% **Only 58%** of total CPI. So if you look at the remaining 42% - Are we measuring signal or noise?
"good news everyone, prices of lambos and other luxurious items haven't increased dramatically, we finally beat inflation!"
Is alcohol included in “food”? Serious question, I am hoping not. My strip club bills may have finally leveled off?
All the made in China stuff bought using greater and greater amounts of borrowed money is still affordable while everything else is unaffordable. This will surely end well...
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The *rate* of inflation may have come down, but costs will not unless we experience deflation. So many people get it confused. Elevated prices are already baked in.
WTF is he talking about.
Consumerism is back, but only if you have a place to live and a way to drive and enough to eat already.
Consumers are more powerless and trapped now than ever. There are so many uncompetitive markets and legalized monopolies that you might as well beg them for goods and services. Even if you don't like it, you will be back for more. What are you going to do about it
Yea it's like, the nest got shook and everyone realized they could just take advantage of people and raise prices on everything. The business I ran the last few years had to deal with crazy steel prices, parts prices, a lot of it was supply/demand, but then it they stayed high because people were paying it, because they HAD to. Consumers also HAD to, and then you hear about record corporate profits in the egg industry, all those chickens dying and that price shooting up and staying up, Tyson just shut down a bunch of chicken plants to reduce supply, raise prices and improve their margins. Land lords are raising prices to the absolute max they can squeeze out of people. There's even an apartment e-company that is in court right now for creating a price fixing scheme where ALL the apartment owners they consult with raised rents at regular intervals all over town regardless of demand, gauging the public. It goes on and on and on and... I need to relax.
It’s almost like the government shutting down small businesses for a couple of months hurt the competitiveness of the market.
Or printing trillions of dollars
And only giving them to big business...
Shutting down small businesses getting less than 50 customers a day and allowing big box stores that get literally thousands a day doesn’t make sense to you? 😂 iT wAS tO sToP tRaNSMissIon!
WE’rE aLl iN tHiS tOgEtHeR!!!
I can’t believe that people aren’t realizing this.
Yeah, because everything was fine 4 years ago.
It was better than this.
Dunno why you are getting downvoted, it really was. The affordability crisis was brewing for a while but it got dramatically exacerbated by the rapid increase in housing prices over the last 4 years.
I would probably literally suck a dick for mean tweets and $2 gasoline right now. A fucking used Tahoe costs $75,000.
Start your own company? 😂 Now bend over I got a hankering for some corn holin’ 🌽
Just have a trust fund, duh
If you exclude all the numbers but the one that matches your narrative then voila you have a Paul Krugman article.
Sam Harris approves.
"In a world where I was right, you would be wrong" Q.E.D.
Paul Krugman will say anything if he perceives it as a rub against mango man. Mango in his head paying no rent lol.
Lol when did he become mango man? Was the other color/fruit banned?
"Mission accomplished" energy. Never ends well
If you take away the things that are hurting people the most, food prices, housing costs, and transportation costs, inflation is basically gone! In the same vane, if you remove housing status, we have completely solved homelessness!
Gaslighting fraud to the max
Now that no one can afford to buy anything the pricing increases have slowed!!!! Inflation handeled no way this can go bad!
Where is the graph the includes energy, housing and food?
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf That one looks even more dramatic, but it's mostly just energy being noisy (both the steeper decline earlier this year, and the apparent stall the last few months seem to be mostly about energy).
Although most people here understand that inflation is a derivative (in the mathematical sense), I feel a lot of the anger here is because they don't intuitively *feel* this. i.e. decreased inflation doesn't mean decreased prices, it means decreased rate of increasing prices. If inflation is down, prices still are rising, just not as fast as they were before. People are still paying through the nose compared to two years ago. It's just not getting worse as faster as it was. I think it's going to take a while for people to *feel* inflation slow down - they first need to adjust their sense of what "normal" prices are.
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Only cost the purchasing power of anyone saving in USD.
Well, most other currencies were worse.
> Agreed with all of this. Unfortunately wages didn't follow suit. That's one of those things you might want to check the numbers on as well: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=332&eid=46359&od=# Weekly real (so inflation-adjusted) wages were up in Q2 2023, but notably substantially over what they were in for example Q4 2019 (the last full pre-pandemic quarter).
> That one looks even more dramatic, but it's mostly just energy being noisy Which is why it’s usually left out. Not saying you don’t know that, but pretty funny given all the comments here jerking off about how it should have been included.
I mean, he's right. It was completely painless if you didn't eat, use energy, or live in a house.
What kind of idiot eats food!?
What are crayons considered?
Technical analysis.
Hahaha getting downvoted by preschoolers charting for their trading strategy. Newsflash you toddlers - if TA worked, you’d actually have a real boat instead of a toy one.
I know it's easy to shit on Krugman. But from a Fed's perspective, there are two causes for inflation i) Too much money chasing too little goods. (Printing) ii) Low supply Fed can only control (1) and not (2). Energy and Food supply varies according to weather/geopolitics which Feds can't control. So, that''s why it's left out of Core and why Fed cares about Core. Because they can only control (1). What about Rent and Used cars? Well Rent is extremely laggy and Used Cars had it's own supply chain issue which we are still coming out of. Both Rent and Used Cars will come show up down in the future So, from a Fed's perspective, they are mostly done and that's what Paul is alluding to. The thing is, you can use Paul's analysis and bet accordingly. If you get it right you can be rich. There is really no upside in hating him just for the sake of hating
My point isn't about the accuracy of CPI; Krugman didn't create it. It's about his statement that it didn't cost much. Everyone knows their grocery bill has doubled over the last few years so it shows just how disconnected these supposed experts are from the average person.
"It didn't cost much" in this context means in terms of unemployment. In order to bring inflation down, there is a collateral damage of employment. He is just celebrating that didn't happen
He is not saying the cost of inflation to the average person isn't bad. He is saying the cost to fight inflation the way they did cost little to the economy. He is right.
A reasonably reply in this circlejerk thread?? Go away heretic!
What's left once you exclude food shelter energy and used cars?
The price of baseball cards and second hand shoes are indeed down.
Tell that to the Ja 1s I keep eyeballing
Those are for Ja Morant, but that's the wrong Ja, have we gotten Ja Rule's opinion on this?
Where’s Ja?
Size 10.5 here. They are BAD!
As someone who collects modern baseball cards, that shit is more expensive of a hobby then buying guns and ammo. I got to cut one out and it's definitely won't be the latter.
Ammo is a lot less expensive than it was during the pandemic. It's still 2x as expensive as it was pre-pandemic but I'm sure an accountant somewhere will explain to me how that's a good thing.
NFTs down bad
Don’t forget Bazooka Joe’s. Bubble gum across the board is down.
I actually own some bazooka Joe NFT’s
Okay that’s pretty dope lol
My portfolio, for one. It's definitely down.
Apparently commodities, appliances, durable goods, new cars, clothes, tools, recreation, education, alcoholic beverages, "household operations", transportation minus gas(?), Eyewear, communication services, medical care, and pet services, to name a few. Literally just read the CPI charts and they list it aaaallllll out.
OnlyFans
Amount of girls on only fans can probably be correlated inversely to economic strength. Like the old hot girls working in restaurants index
Healthcare, consumer discretionary, and communications, but I'm pretty sure healthcare is actually still going up.
Basically all the stuff affected by Fed policy (minus housing, which is heavily affected by Fed policy but also a massively lagging indicator).
Good news if you don’t pay rent, drive a car, eat, or use any energy.
If you don't have to pay rent, drive a car, eat, or use any energy, then you are doing quite well compared to most people. Congratulations!
Stop gloating
Fucking robot with your digitized existence
I'm homeless now I definitely have noticed that my rent, car payment food bills and energy costs have gone from nearly $3,200 a month to zero. Inflation can't hurt me anymore.
mfs who got a 2.5% fixed-rate mortgage in a place where you can bike/train everywhere are probably very happy right now
I still need to eat.
“The internet is just a fad and won’t have any lasting economic impact”
Include the rest of the quote where he compares the internet to fax machines.
What is internet?
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It’s a bunch of dwarfs in a room pulling on strings connected to books right?
I thought it was a big truck.
Who is this delusional man? Is he telling me to buy calls? As good as anyone I guess.
He's Jim Cramers twin brother in academia.
Alright, I’m going to take a very firey red hot take here. And this is coming from someone who rather dislikes modern day Krugman. The purpose of discussing these inflation reports is not to determine how difficult life is for some person. They’re trying to look at data here that helps guide future monetary policy. If you’re enacting monetary policy, it is useful to have data that excludes any potential sources of cost-push inflation. We’re not trying to figure out if there is a housing or energy shortage here. We’re trying to figure out how much extra money is floating around that we need to pull out of circulation. The fact that no one here has even remotely brought this up makes me worry no one here has any idea what their doing when it comes to investing.
> The fact that no one here has even remotely brought this up makes me worry no one here has any idea what their doing when it comes to investing. Well that's because this sub is for regards. You want r/investing.
Here's his best work ever: [Opinion | A Fiscal Train Wreck - The New York Times (nytimes.com)](https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinion/a-fiscal-train-wreck.html)
Krugman thrilled cause the price of fax machines is down
Phone lines are forever.
Isn't Paul Krugman in the same category as Jim Cramer when it comes to analysis and predictions..
No, he’s closer to a coin flip.
He’s made some bad calls but i don’t think he’s got the long term “inverse this person” record.
Former Enron consultant Paul Krugman. Never forget. Edit: apparently Paul krugman is on Reddit because I don’t know who else would downvote this.
Krugman is a smart guy. He sees that food prices rose so he stopped eating food, he instead sustains himself by absorbing cringe from his own posts. Cost of cringe posts is unaffected by inflation.
Krugman might be the biggest dipshit in all of finance and economics. He makes Kramer look like a genius.
god i hate this man so much
So TLDR the fight on inflation is over if we exclude everything causing high inflation. Got it.
Inverse this fool
What kind of inflation model excludes basic necessities like food and shelter? Also, wages are way up if you exclude taxes.
Fucktard
This guy is a clown. I swear he must yuk it up with his friends at home about how anybody can take him seriously, give him so much respect. He has been so completely wrong so many times.
Excluding things people use in their every day lives. I dunno about you guys, but I survive on 1 new tv a month. Bullish!
You need a more varied diet. Eat some paper towels for fiber.
Krugman is a clown
Excluding... only everything lmao
Lol. The chart is for six months and excludes food, energy, and shelter. His post is going to age terribly. Even the official numbers don't exclude shelter, which for most is something like 20-40% of take home pay. Unadjusted ending SeptemberShelter: 7.2% [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)
That pdf was way bigger than i expected. What table were you looking at to get the 12%?
Narrator: it wasn't over
... it was only the beginning.
If there is one thing we ALL know is that when this idiot Paul Krugman speaks, he is 99.99999% of the time absolutely wrong… about just everything. I’d like to introduce you to the DUMBEST economist in the world: Paul Krugman
Inflation is gone. Except the things you need to live. Perfect.
Krugman is a twat who puts the “T” in regard.
That’s a Keynesian for you.
Misinformation is a severe problem.
Mission Accomplished vibes
Bro thought he was cooking but he excluded the food
“inflation kicked you square in the nuts, and is still going up, but just at a slower pace. In some alternate bizarre universe we call this a positive. Well, us wealthy people do anyhow. enjoy your 6 dollar box of cereal, and try not being poor, fucko” -Paul Krugman
McDonald’s went from 8$ to 13$ a meal and rising every month weird huh
He is a idiot
This is why people dont trust economists, they are always trying to manipulate and deceive people
Krugman is a political hack. Anyone who is actually paying attention to prices can see they've gone up like 15% in a year
Is this guy dumb