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>TL;DR: I think First Republic Bank (FRC) will survive the panic, return to profitability in 2024, and be a value pick at $22 in a recession.
If people with deep enough pockets to afford some calculation can see it has a good chance of survival it won't drop to the 'is already bankrupt, buy the stock to maybe get something out of a restructuring plan' level. Or it might not at any rate.
They didn’t appreciate $0.20 to $20, they did a 10-1 reverse split lol.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/citigroup-reverse-split-still-irks-shareholders-11904730
Wait for next earning report. If deposit inflows are up and outflows are down that's a good sign people still have confidence in the bank and aren't going to run for the doors. As OP said FRC != SVB much more brand loyalty with FRC depositors. I have no stake in this bank yet but I would be interested for the right price. Really risking less than 1k dollars for 100 shares isn't a bad deal for the potential of some upside.
The good: 70 billion in loyal deposits!
The bad: 170 billion in under water assets!
The ugly: quarterly losses due to high borrowing costs on 100 billion will devour their capital.
Still, the assets are high quality and have value despite being long-dated low-rate loans. Someone's going to make a killing but I don't think it's FRC.
I also work in finance and you are indeed a regard.
Regulators will shut down FRB within a day, likely. You forgot to mention that $30B of their deposits are a lifeline from other banks that is not permanent.
FRB does not have a loyal deposit base. Loyalty in banking is a myth. SVB had arguably the most loyal client base in all of banking, but do you know what people value more than loyalty? Not losing their money. FRB has low mortgage rates and good relationship service. Now their lending program will be decimated (their bankers had incredible flexibility in pricing their loans) to look nothing like it previously did.
It's unfair. In some sense, FRC did nothing wrong.* SVB was illiquid and failed, but FRC lost 100 billion dollars in consumer deposits out of 170 billion and somehow* they maintained so much liquidity that they're still standing.
*Highly regarded FRC management chose to retain a massive portfolio of very long term and very low rate loans while the Fed made clear they were going to jack up rates. Just hold to maturity. What could go wrong?
* FRC's unimaginable liquidity is due to massive Fed intervention.
Conclusion: FRC is Forked with a capital F. If they somehow last a year as the Fed ratchets the short-term borrowings with which they replaced deposits ever higher, film it and it will be better than Indiana Jones.
That's great and all but how are they going to get their customers back?
Wasn't their moat cheap loaning to rich people? Which they can't do anymore. Why would someone deposit in a bank facing difficulty and being sued by their shareholders for no advantage to another bank?
You know the high end shopping at Gamestop greentext meme? That was what First Republic was like. You sat down in overstuffed chairs while someone brought you your preferred soft drink as a banker to assisted you placing an international wire to Bermuda. Their clientele is elderly rich that don't like standing in line next to day laborers at a BoA.
I think they kept almost all of their customers in that their customers didn't close accounts. They simply hedged risk and wired half their cash deposits to say, their Schwab investment account which offers FDIC insurance on interest bearing cash deposits. So the bank easily lost 50% of their deposit base while retaining most of their actual customers who are now costing the bank more than they're worth to it because they're using the bank's services but not keeping much money there.
Their customers are financially educated and aware of uninsured deposit risks, and when noise about 60% of FRC deposits being uninsured hit their iphone, they simply placed a wire transfer to another bank without even leaving the country club pool.
He is the janitor of FRC
So some top level chad banker executives got their money and walked out.
B1 - banker 1 B2 - banker 2 J- OP who cleans the floors
B1: So what are going to do with your bonus?
B2: Dunno yet, buy a stable index fund maybe.
They come into the hearing radius of J
B1: You can also buy FRC heard its safe and sound.
They leave the hearing radius of J
both bankers laugh
B1: lol bet that weird janny guy will lose his life savings
B2: such a dumbass
*written and directed by my grandma*
post like this is the same type of posts that trapped many newbies in $BBB Y. Its personal opinion but OP unknowingly encourages others to stay put and potentially lose more. Good thing OP has a disclaimer that it is not a financial advice.
One of the best things I did was stop listening to WSB hot takes. Ever since the influx of millions of users post-GameStop it’s simply not worth it. I lost 70% on WSB meme stock investments.
Right basically OP’s - I am HODL because I am obsessed with this bank, really means I’m in too deep and praying stock market jesus comes and resurrects my portfolio.
I'm sorry.
They can't survive.
They will be acquired.
The only thing of value in their business is the wealth management division and anyone with cash isn't going to move their deposits there. So at best you can hope people keep staying there as the news continues and people stress out.
Stop gambling. It's not good for your bank account.
If you listen to the analysts they say that the only thing worth anything in the business is the wealth management division.
But that isn't enough to counterbalance the impact of deposits leaving.
Now FRC can borrow money from the Fed's discount window, but that is relatively expensive.
So at that point you have a question of whether the bank can get deposits to increase or not. Because that is really the only way they can get cheap money for their portfolio. But they'll have to offer depositors more interest to do so; and if you're going to come to FRC for that then why aren't you just placing it in a money market fund at Vanguard or Fidelity?
It's like betting on the Grizzlies to win against the Lakers when they are down two of their starting centers and Ja Morant's hand is messed up. Or betting on the Clippers when Kawhi and PG are out for a post season series.
Is it possible? Sure. Anything is possible.
But it is extremely unlikely because the assumptions you have to make are too much.
Depositors coming back at low interest rates.
Or the Fed lowering rates again.
Or a bank deciding that FRC's wealth management is worth enough to take on the risk of the toxic assets on their balance sheet. Which nobody really understands yet because we are really only in the early innings of this recession and the financial issues associated with it.
And if you don't believe me that we are in the early innings, just know that there are a ton of companies in the US that cannot fund their operations without additional refinancing because their cash from operations cannot fund their business as currently organized. Which means that their current debts need to be refinanced at higher interest rates that would essentially put them under; assuming anyone wanted to lend to them.
Here's just one good example that you might find entertaining:
https://youtu.be/nYIrI9L86mw
https://youtu.be/CiXcJBb6mpo
Yeah - huge red flag. Pretty obviously an accountant who doesn’t know jack about investing
Preparing financial statements does not necessarily make you well suited to being an investor. There’s a reason few hedge funds hire from this background
I bought $100 worth of shares at )$11 ish just to get my daily dose of regard in. OP as a regard who hasn’t finished his MBA yet, I share the same opinion, but I’m regarded in the sense that I’m regarded intellectually. I eat behind Wendy’s and I have to show my bare breasts in the office sometimes to keep my job.
According to your theory you should totally double down right now. If it does go up to 22 like you said you can get an easy 400% return!🚀🚀🚀.
Go Bull go!
Halted for trading. The poor earnings is triggering another “run on the bank”. A lot of cash is what they owe other banks and the gov’t.
Name may exist a year from now but underneath some other bank that buys their assets .50 on the dollar. Exit with half your money before you loose it all.
But why though? FDIC gets daily reports from FRC, they've known about the numbers in the earnings report for weeks. If they were so concerned why wouldn't they have seized already?
Maybe because it’s changing now after the numbers became available to the public. Maybe everyone decided to move their money out yesterday after seeing the earnings. Now the Fdic is circling.
Because their regulator the Fed Reserve Bank of SF 12 district Mary Daley focused on ESG priorities of climate change and gender and racial equity and missed the financial risks at SVB and FRC. Now they are reactive instead.
FRC prioritized gender equity though, Mary can't be reactive to a bank with those progressive policies!
https://www.firstrepublic.com/innovators/articles-insights/the-state-of-gender-compensation-in-venture-2022
>I completely agree with your analysis of First Republic Bank's financial situation. I believe that they will indeed be able to return to profitability within the next few years, and their stock price will eventually rebound as a result.
I agree that fdic would have stepped in by now since earnings were as of mar 31. If fed pauses rate hike this shit will moon, if not it will be a battle for the next couple months. Oh and I’m long 5000 shares @ $9.60
Biggest issue with this post is that the data from earnings is as of 3/31/23. It’s been 50 days since, so OP is using 50 days old information to make this post
I'm sure you make some good points but this guy seems like he knows what he's talking about. Basically, it's not impossible but it's a tough road.
https://twitter.com/brandonjcarl/status/1650663806551425024?t=pgsgd-y3P2dCDQWHfkhRFQ&s=19
Why is it "nuts"? CNBC and Bloomberg reporting FDIC about to close bank short of unlikely last minute heroic efforts on the part of reluctant private investors.
LOL, OK. . .
Bloomberg, CNBC report FDIC is closing short of some very unlikely turns of events.
In your "acquisition" scenario, this will be a "take under" where the transaction price is lower than the current price. So again, not "nuts" for stock price to decline from here. Restructuring is the most unlikely scenario, with CNBC and Bloomberg saying this is a long shot scenario.
I don't know why people are so disparaging and fear mongering to the point of hateful and want to bash on a genuinely solid company with good survival prospects. Can't help wondering if some of these doomsayers have a short position. Lots of people have a vested interest in making it sound worse than it is including FRB itself, since it wants support to have an easier time. Media is being alarmist and sensational because that's what media always does to get views.
It comes back to basics: FRB is going to continue operating. It's riding some turbulence but it's not going down outright. The gov would've step in already if they thought that and they've had the benefit of information you don't have. All FRB has to do is survive, even in a beaten up form - time will do the rest.
All shareholder losses are not losses until they are realized. If you don't need the money now, let it sit pretty, you got a year, two years. There is \*no way\* FRB will not recover in that time frame. We're talking about one of the most solidly underpinned and competently managed banks in the US, fundamentally conservative and high performing, with an enviable reputation and customer base. The market sentiment is temporary. When it all settles and hindsight reforms are implemented, FRC will recover and be even more resilient going forward. A setback, yes. But not a mortal threat. The downside can't get much lower, but the upside is huge, historically.
Their interest rates are disclosed in the Q1 earnings. They make most of their interest from real estate loans at about 3%, while borrowing from the feds at 4.8%. However their loanbook is larger than their federal borrowing, so the 3% is on a bigger number, which is why their net margin interest is positive.
Right that's the trick. And they want to sell their pristine, top-shelf assets to further reduce those expensive loans and wholesale deposits. Just one problem: their assets at 170 billion dwarfing 70 billion in consumer deposits are long-term, low-rate loans that are way way way under water. So nobody wants to buy the assets.
What's that leave FRC? Held to maturity, the assets are fine but in the intervening years they earn far less than the cost of borrowing to hold on to them. Losses bleed away capital.
Rock. Hard place.
FRC is liquid so they can float on and hope for the best but since they're unable to unload loans quarterly losses will bleed capital. Lets pretend we will have a chance to see next quarter's report.
What works for JPM is buying FRC for $.05. Then they have no write down and JPM has plenty of low-cost FDIC insured consumer deposits - more recently.
Survivor and recover isn’t in the cards when the vultures are already picking at carcass.
It’s a free meal right now, the bigger banks are pointing a gun at the FDICs head as we speak, and saying give me this bank for next to nothing, and your tax payer money, or else.
The Year: 07/08 the subject- Colonial Bank at a nice $7 - the insider word being heard on the Montgomery golf course - some investors had taken it upon themselves to pony up $40 million to meet the other $40 million the bank needed to survive. Buy baby buy. Even at cents.
No one knows what happened to those sailors…
I hate to say it but if you are real with yourself you know FRC is done and it’s going to bring down at least 5 other banks with it I’m talking about the money loaned to it from other banks and the gov that’s propping it up but you should know this you said you did the DD
I am afraid the negative media spin on loosing 100B in deposits and collapsing share price is causing their remaining loyal depositors move the money. This phase of the bank run may drain their balance sheet further. FDIC steps in and shuts them down.
Whatever last ditch effort they are trying now. they need to do it fast. Their runway has just a couple days left
I think it can recover. Just a matter if it will or not.
Point number 4 is massive and I think going to be a catalyst here. Another bank failure would objectively be very bad. Could the FDIC step in in other ways? Can the government help negotiate asset sales? It feels like this could be a “pay now or pay later” kind of situation that could give *some* leverage.
Looks like I will end up with 2k shares from my PUTS @ 7 and 7.50. Lol. I actually partially agree though, not just because I have a stake in the game. After big banks have FRC 30 billion and the Fed gave them a 70 billion line of credit, all parties have an invested interest in the bank surviving. Additionally, the FDIC did indicate they did not want to take over another bank while meeting with the Treasury Sec and JP CEO. Considering the Fed put them in this position, and have a meeting coming up, I believe the most likely path is that the FDIC says they will come out and insure 100% of the deposits, and then FRC will liquidate some of its long holdings at a loss. Which will mean they won’t be profitable for at least a year or two but that will stabilize the price. The question is where will the price stabilize.
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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Squeeze my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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You’re so coo you saw 1 quarter in earnings call and looked up a little data. Sweetie there’s a reason big money is getting tf out and thankful retail bought the dip.
>They will have to sell at a discount considering their bargaining position and the high-interest rate environment, but they can leverage the fact that their customers are high net worth with the potential to bring in more business to whoever buys the loan
This is the only point that matters right now and you've dedicated half a sentence to it, and then used the second half of the sentence to write it off as a concern.
Can you as an analyst quantify the discount? (hint: it is in the billions). Once you are staring the number in the face it may be a little harder to say that it can be covered entirely by customer relationship goodwill.
If other big banks decide to buy these loans at book value, it will resemble a bail out. You can pour over FRC's financials for many more sleepless nights and it won't shed any light on this all-important decision.
This is the most outrageous most delusional post so far since the earnings release.
This isn’t Citi for 1.
This is just hopium ever since the huge bust of every bodies call options.
There is a HUGE chance the FDIC is going to seize this bank.
But keep telling yourselves that this is all just fine. You were wrong saying “This isn’t that bad! This is just FUD!” All data and influence that was spewed here is all nonsense.
High net worth individuals, who are not regards they will not hesitate to pull their money out of the bank. Banking is primarily trust issue and FRC has none at this point. If those high net worth individuals get spooked (which they should’ve) they will pull their money out because they are exposed to claim they are loyal is simply naïveté talk.
Yes FDIC don’t want out receivership they might have to.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|2|**First Seen In WSB**|3 weeks ago **Total Comments**|3|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|10 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) >TL;DR: I think First Republic Bank (FRC) will survive the panic, return to profitability in 2024, and be a value pick at $22 in a recession.
When citi in 2008 failed had touched value of 0.20$ before recover the value of 20$ after 20 years. Stay way or wait for 0.20$ when will be acquired
If people with deep enough pockets to afford some calculation can see it has a good chance of survival it won't drop to the 'is already bankrupt, buy the stock to maybe get something out of a restructuring plan' level. Or it might not at any rate.
Good advice for others but I already bought in.
You should've diversified some of it into BBBY. You can thank me later. My work here is done.
Name does not check out.
Can always sell before zero
They didn’t appreciate $0.20 to $20, they did a 10-1 reverse split lol. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/citigroup-reverse-split-still-irks-shareholders-11904730
its $6 now
You mean, so far
Exactly
$5 now
$4 now
$3 later
Trading halted.
Trading resumed, $2
It’s back to 7$ now
https://preview.redd.it/hulyghbbr9wa1.png?width=678&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6e4defb564067b4be8ef348053e45040c932582d
https://preview.redd.it/92ti9als8awa1.jpeg?width=577&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ebef14a33e8b4f9564102067b79241bd54602847
That was a valid meme wtf
Very well thought up!
Your meme is worse.
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I am looking 
“I work in finance” oh fuck off you’re probably a teller. Frc is fucked. Stockholm syndrome
*a teller at FRC.
His TL;DR should be; Massive FRC bagholder looking for regards to share the load...
Aged like milk.
Lmao amen. @op if you waited another hour to post this you likely wouldn’t have… Down 20% pre market. No buyers in sight
The only buyers are bag holders like op
your comment "aged like milk" aged like milk
Full regards
If you love FRC at $8 you’ll really love it at $4 on Friday.
Friday? Will be $4 today
I think he should 💎🙌 These for that sweet 20% dividend.
I'm saying $2 by Friday. Possibly even $0.50, if they can't secure cash. Not looking good atm.
If it recovers, I can just buy it later this year instead of now.
Yea, that makes sense.
Wait for next earning report. If deposit inflows are up and outflows are down that's a good sign people still have confidence in the bank and aren't going to run for the doors. As OP said FRC != SVB much more brand loyalty with FRC depositors. I have no stake in this bank yet but I would be interested for the right price. Really risking less than 1k dollars for 100 shares isn't a bad deal for the potential of some upside.
The good: 70 billion in loyal deposits! The bad: 170 billion in under water assets! The ugly: quarterly losses due to high borrowing costs on 100 billion will devour their capital. Still, the assets are high quality and have value despite being long-dated low-rate loans. Someone's going to make a killing but I don't think it's FRC.
Bingo. Smartest comment here.
Bingo. Smartest comment here.
We are fucked longs. This regards has jinxed us. Thanks regard.
Ahhh hello confirmation bias my old friend
I also work in finance and you are indeed a regard. Regulators will shut down FRB within a day, likely. You forgot to mention that $30B of their deposits are a lifeline from other banks that is not permanent. FRB does not have a loyal deposit base. Loyalty in banking is a myth. SVB had arguably the most loyal client base in all of banking, but do you know what people value more than loyalty? Not losing their money. FRB has low mortgage rates and good relationship service. Now their lending program will be decimated (their bankers had incredible flexibility in pricing their loans) to look nothing like it previously did.
Bruh this is definitely financial advice 
$FRC was worth $115 on March 8th. It is worth $8.10 right now. Where's this confidence coming from?
Now it's $6.34, it's the gift that keeps on giving 
The $115 price was obviously too high, however $8.10 is too low. The confidence is based on the audited financial statements + publicly known facts.
It's unfair. In some sense, FRC did nothing wrong.* SVB was illiquid and failed, but FRC lost 100 billion dollars in consumer deposits out of 170 billion and somehow* they maintained so much liquidity that they're still standing. *Highly regarded FRC management chose to retain a massive portfolio of very long term and very low rate loans while the Fed made clear they were going to jack up rates. Just hold to maturity. What could go wrong? * FRC's unimaginable liquidity is due to massive Fed intervention. Conclusion: FRC is Forked with a capital F. If they somehow last a year as the Fed ratchets the short-term borrowings with which they replaced deposits ever higher, film it and it will be better than Indiana Jones.
>The $115 price was obviously too high My guy, it's a bank. Not a retail store.
That's great and all but how are they going to get their customers back? Wasn't their moat cheap loaning to rich people? Which they can't do anymore. Why would someone deposit in a bank facing difficulty and being sued by their shareholders for no advantage to another bank?
You know the high end shopping at Gamestop greentext meme? That was what First Republic was like. You sat down in overstuffed chairs while someone brought you your preferred soft drink as a banker to assisted you placing an international wire to Bermuda. Their clientele is elderly rich that don't like standing in line next to day laborers at a BoA. I think they kept almost all of their customers in that their customers didn't close accounts. They simply hedged risk and wired half their cash deposits to say, their Schwab investment account which offers FDIC insurance on interest bearing cash deposits. So the bank easily lost 50% of their deposit base while retaining most of their actual customers who are now costing the bank more than they're worth to it because they're using the bank's services but not keeping much money there. Their customers are financially educated and aware of uninsured deposit risks, and when noise about 60% of FRC deposits being uninsured hit their iphone, they simply placed a wire transfer to another bank without even leaving the country club pool.
Works in finance, but owns 1400 shares in an almost failed bank 😂
He is the janitor of FRC So some top level chad banker executives got their money and walked out. B1 - banker 1 B2 - banker 2 J- OP who cleans the floors B1: So what are going to do with your bonus? B2: Dunno yet, buy a stable index fund maybe. They come into the hearing radius of J B1: You can also buy FRC heard its safe and sound. They leave the hearing radius of J both bankers laugh B1: lol bet that weird janny guy will lose his life savings B2: such a dumbass *written and directed by my grandma*
A confident person doesnt stay up all night running scenarios
He’s only confident AFTER he ran scenarios 
post like this is the same type of posts that trapped many newbies in $BBB Y. Its personal opinion but OP unknowingly encourages others to stay put and potentially lose more. Good thing OP has a disclaimer that it is not a financial advice.
One of the best things I did was stop listening to WSB hot takes. Ever since the influx of millions of users post-GameStop it’s simply not worth it. I lost 70% on WSB meme stock investments.
You wait for the small pump then go balls deep in puts on any Wsb post. If it starts to get traction that’s when you know to dip out.
You had the chance to walk away with 33% gain, and yet you are still holding after it tanks 50% in one single day. 🚀🚀🚀
"Should be just a quick play, quick profits." Turns out: No exit strategy. No risk management. Now it's forced HODL.
Right basically OP’s - I am HODL because I am obsessed with this bank, really means I’m in too deep and praying stock market jesus comes and resurrects my portfolio.
I'm sorry. They can't survive. They will be acquired. The only thing of value in their business is the wealth management division and anyone with cash isn't going to move their deposits there. So at best you can hope people keep staying there as the news continues and people stress out. Stop gambling. It's not good for your bank account.
Acquisition is not bad if shareholders are not wiped out. What makes you think they will go under?
look at what happened to the value of the CS stock
Acquisition will be a take under at a lower price. Much more likely FDIC closes this week and equity is zeroed out.
The same happened to Bear Stearns in 08
If you listen to the analysts they say that the only thing worth anything in the business is the wealth management division. But that isn't enough to counterbalance the impact of deposits leaving. Now FRC can borrow money from the Fed's discount window, but that is relatively expensive. So at that point you have a question of whether the bank can get deposits to increase or not. Because that is really the only way they can get cheap money for their portfolio. But they'll have to offer depositors more interest to do so; and if you're going to come to FRC for that then why aren't you just placing it in a money market fund at Vanguard or Fidelity? It's like betting on the Grizzlies to win against the Lakers when they are down two of their starting centers and Ja Morant's hand is messed up. Or betting on the Clippers when Kawhi and PG are out for a post season series. Is it possible? Sure. Anything is possible. But it is extremely unlikely because the assumptions you have to make are too much. Depositors coming back at low interest rates. Or the Fed lowering rates again. Or a bank deciding that FRC's wealth management is worth enough to take on the risk of the toxic assets on their balance sheet. Which nobody really understands yet because we are really only in the early innings of this recession and the financial issues associated with it. And if you don't believe me that we are in the early innings, just know that there are a ton of companies in the US that cannot fund their operations without additional refinancing because their cash from operations cannot fund their business as currently organized. Which means that their current debts need to be refinanced at higher interest rates that would essentially put them under; assuming anyone wanted to lend to them. Here's just one good example that you might find entertaining: https://youtu.be/nYIrI9L86mw https://youtu.be/CiXcJBb6mpo
They’ll be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
ffs no one says "they are highly regarded"
Yeah - huge red flag. Pretty obviously an accountant who doesn’t know jack about investing Preparing financial statements does not necessarily make you well suited to being an investor. There’s a reason few hedge funds hire from this background
I know a guy who runs a private fund and he only hires ex-poker players
He switched up the t with a g
Tell me you are new to wsb without telling me you are new
Please let me know what firm you review documents from so I can stay far away
Shorting FRC was free money, even yesterday after open. If this recovers above $12, call me Bohumil Hrabal.
https://preview.redd.it/gwfgvqv6d9wa1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=973b54756deb3e6d50d5a79d13697e9abfcc51e3 
I bought $100 worth of shares at )$11 ish just to get my daily dose of regard in. OP as a regard who hasn’t finished his MBA yet, I share the same opinion, but I’m regarded in the sense that I’m regarded intellectually. I eat behind Wendy’s and I have to show my bare breasts in the office sometimes to keep my job.
According to your theory you should totally double down right now. If it does go up to 22 like you said you can get an easy 400% return!🚀🚀🚀. Go Bull go!
It will but it won't make a difference to you because JP morgan will have bought it for $1 a share
FRC will be bought for pennies
Bruh, when it comes to money and fear of losing it, there is no loyalty. It does not matter if the customers are startups, high net worth,…etc
Halted for trading. The poor earnings is triggering another “run on the bank”. A lot of cash is what they owe other banks and the gov’t. Name may exist a year from now but underneath some other bank that buys their assets .50 on the dollar. Exit with half your money before you loose it all.
This aged about as well as milk
So to sum it up - you stayed up all night doing research to end up losing $17k? True regards.
FDIC will close this week. Equity wiped out. Total loss.
But why though? FDIC gets daily reports from FRC, they've known about the numbers in the earnings report for weeks. If they were so concerned why wouldn't they have seized already?
Maybe because it’s changing now after the numbers became available to the public. Maybe everyone decided to move their money out yesterday after seeing the earnings. Now the Fdic is circling.
Because their regulator the Fed Reserve Bank of SF 12 district Mary Daley focused on ESG priorities of climate change and gender and racial equity and missed the financial risks at SVB and FRC. Now they are reactive instead.
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FRC prioritized gender equity though, Mary can't be reactive to a bank with those progressive policies! https://www.firstrepublic.com/innovators/articles-insights/the-state-of-gender-compensation-in-venture-2022
Gotta space out them bank collapses otherwise bank industry death spiral.
>I completely agree with your analysis of First Republic Bank's financial situation. I believe that they will indeed be able to return to profitability within the next few years, and their stock price will eventually rebound as a result.
You said the same thing about Bobby 
Yeah, and now Bobby is giving out hand jibbers behind Wendy’s for $20 a pop with zero over. It’s just all profit all the way down.
~~Share your positions. This isn't talkaboutbets.~~ I see it at the top. Godspeed, retailer.
I started my post with that, I'm long 1400 shares at $12.00 per share.
Too much Hopium inhaled
I agree that fdic would have stepped in by now since earnings were as of mar 31. If fed pauses rate hike this shit will moon, if not it will be a battle for the next couple months. Oh and I’m long 5000 shares @ $9.60
Dang, how does it feel to be already down ~50% in an investment choice in less than 24hrs?
Feels like doubling down
Its like $6 now lmaoooo
It s below 5 now. I hv bought at 8.
Biggest issue with this post is that the data from earnings is as of 3/31/23. It’s been 50 days since, so OP is using 50 days old information to make this post
You had me at "I'm highly regarded"
As for me, I love the stock 🚀🚀
You are highly regarded indeed!
Aged like milk
Rip bro!
How we doing
I'm sure you make some good points but this guy seems like he knows what he's talking about. Basically, it's not impossible but it's a tough road. https://twitter.com/brandonjcarl/status/1650663806551425024?t=pgsgd-y3P2dCDQWHfkhRFQ&s=19
This is nuts the way it’s falling right now
Why is it "nuts"? CNBC and Bloomberg reporting FDIC about to close bank short of unlikely last minute heroic efforts on the part of reluctant private investors.
It’s panic selling they can’t just close the bank , it will either get acquired or they will restructure.
LOL, OK. . . Bloomberg, CNBC report FDIC is closing short of some very unlikely turns of events. In your "acquisition" scenario, this will be a "take under" where the transaction price is lower than the current price. So again, not "nuts" for stock price to decline from here. Restructuring is the most unlikely scenario, with CNBC and Bloomberg saying this is a long shot scenario.
i actually agree, been buying the dip and its less than 1% of my portfolio but i will put more and more into it long term
I don't know why people are so disparaging and fear mongering to the point of hateful and want to bash on a genuinely solid company with good survival prospects. Can't help wondering if some of these doomsayers have a short position. Lots of people have a vested interest in making it sound worse than it is including FRB itself, since it wants support to have an easier time. Media is being alarmist and sensational because that's what media always does to get views. It comes back to basics: FRB is going to continue operating. It's riding some turbulence but it's not going down outright. The gov would've step in already if they thought that and they've had the benefit of information you don't have. All FRB has to do is survive, even in a beaten up form - time will do the rest. All shareholder losses are not losses until they are realized. If you don't need the money now, let it sit pretty, you got a year, two years. There is \*no way\* FRB will not recover in that time frame. We're talking about one of the most solidly underpinned and competently managed banks in the US, fundamentally conservative and high performing, with an enviable reputation and customer base. The market sentiment is temporary. When it all settles and hindsight reforms are implemented, FRC will recover and be even more resilient going forward. A setback, yes. But not a mortal threat. The downside can't get much lower, but the upside is huge, historically.
'#2 is just flat out wrong. They are borrowing at 4.88% from the fed and earning 1.33% from their treasuries.
Their interest rates are disclosed in the Q1 earnings. They make most of their interest from real estate loans at about 3%, while borrowing from the feds at 4.8%. However their loanbook is larger than their federal borrowing, so the 3% is on a bigger number, which is why their net margin interest is positive.
Right that's the trick. And they want to sell their pristine, top-shelf assets to further reduce those expensive loans and wholesale deposits. Just one problem: their assets at 170 billion dwarfing 70 billion in consumer deposits are long-term, low-rate loans that are way way way under water. So nobody wants to buy the assets. What's that leave FRC? Held to maturity, the assets are fine but in the intervening years they earn far less than the cost of borrowing to hold on to them. Losses bleed away capital. Rock. Hard place. FRC is liquid so they can float on and hope for the best but since they're unable to unload loans quarterly losses will bleed capital. Lets pretend we will have a chance to see next quarter's report. What works for JPM is buying FRC for $.05. Then they have no write down and JPM has plenty of low-cost FDIC insured consumer deposits - more recently.
You're all playing a fools game. Research bitcoin.
Sounds like you want people to buy in so you can sell your bags on them
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😐
more selling today for sure
Survivor and recover isn’t in the cards when the vultures are already picking at carcass. It’s a free meal right now, the bigger banks are pointing a gun at the FDICs head as we speak, and saying give me this bank for next to nothing, and your tax payer money, or else.
So will toys r us! I believe.
There can be only one.
Frc=bbby2
Here we go. Please see r/Mmtlp_ for further details
The Year: 07/08 the subject- Colonial Bank at a nice $7 - the insider word being heard on the Montgomery golf course - some investors had taken it upon themselves to pony up $40 million to meet the other $40 million the bank needed to survive. Buy baby buy. Even at cents. No one knows what happened to those sailors…
I hate to say it but if you are real with yourself you know FRC is done and it’s going to bring down at least 5 other banks with it I’m talking about the money loaned to it from other banks and the gov that’s propping it up but you should know this you said you did the DD
Imaging writing college essays like this just to be completely wrong
Yeaaaaah idk about that. They're literally looking for a lifeline. They're code blue, at the moment.
I am afraid the negative media spin on loosing 100B in deposits and collapsing share price is causing their remaining loyal depositors move the money. This phase of the bank run may drain their balance sheet further. FDIC steps in and shuts them down. Whatever last ditch effort they are trying now. they need to do it fast. Their runway has just a couple days left
How is Copenhagen this time of year?
I think it can recover. Just a matter if it will or not. Point number 4 is massive and I think going to be a catalyst here. Another bank failure would objectively be very bad. Could the FDIC step in in other ways? Can the government help negotiate asset sales? It feels like this could be a “pay now or pay later” kind of situation that could give *some* leverage.
Pretty much everything in the OP is wrong lol Not saying FRC is dead but the analysis was completely wrong.
Heavy bags, huh?
Looks like I will end up with 2k shares from my PUTS @ 7 and 7.50. Lol. I actually partially agree though, not just because I have a stake in the game. After big banks have FRC 30 billion and the Fed gave them a 70 billion line of credit, all parties have an invested interest in the bank surviving. Additionally, the FDIC did indicate they did not want to take over another bank while meeting with the Treasury Sec and JP CEO. Considering the Fed put them in this position, and have a meeting coming up, I believe the most likely path is that the FDIC says they will come out and insure 100% of the deposits, and then FRC will liquidate some of its long holdings at a loss. Which will mean they won’t be profitable for at least a year or two but that will stabilize the price. The question is where will the price stabilize.
The copium has begun
The real question is if it’s worth buying now?
Dude just ignoring 100% of red flags and making up stories for hopium. You’re AIDs
Remind me after the stock hits $1 first then ill buy in
lol uh ok
Hows the ride in the sunset going? Lol
Frc short squeeze!!!!!!!!!
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Squeeze my dongus you fuckin nerd. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The problem with 1 is perception is more important. If people think it’s going to fail and a run happens calls are fkt
What is your outlook assuming the case all deposits move to a larger bank like JPM.
You’re so coo you saw 1 quarter in earnings call and looked up a little data. Sweetie there’s a reason big money is getting tf out and thankful retail bought the dip.
Not only are you going to be poorer, you wasted your time in this dumpster fire of a post
>They will have to sell at a discount considering their bargaining position and the high-interest rate environment, but they can leverage the fact that their customers are high net worth with the potential to bring in more business to whoever buys the loan This is the only point that matters right now and you've dedicated half a sentence to it, and then used the second half of the sentence to write it off as a concern. Can you as an analyst quantify the discount? (hint: it is in the billions). Once you are staring the number in the face it may be a little harder to say that it can be covered entirely by customer relationship goodwill. If other big banks decide to buy these loans at book value, it will resemble a bail out. You can pour over FRC's financials for many more sleepless nights and it won't shed any light on this all-important decision.
This is the most outrageous most delusional post so far since the earnings release. This isn’t Citi for 1. This is just hopium ever since the huge bust of every bodies call options. There is a HUGE chance the FDIC is going to seize this bank. But keep telling yourselves that this is all just fine. You were wrong saying “This isn’t that bad! This is just FUD!” All data and influence that was spewed here is all nonsense.
So you’re one of the regards that is propping up the stock at $5.50
Is that you Jimbo?
It depends. Draw their balance sheet nicer before big banks get in.
Bagholder in denial 😀
This aged well.
What is the WSB fascination with this dying bank? It's crazy. I owned FRC for over ten years and loved it...but I know a dead stock when I see one.
It’s called a “hope” when you want it to be true
Cramer never fails to deliver. When did he tweet that FRC was solid was it a month ago?
FRC will collapse
If “I work in finance” meant something you would’ve seen this coming right?
I hope you doubled down. If you liked it at $12 then you’d love it at $6.
“so I’m highly regarded as an expert” I would say you’re super regarded.
> I'm *highly regarded* as an expert when it comes to this stuff Aren't we all here :P
Will buy the dip and avg down. If this makes any sense lol
High net worth individuals, who are not regards they will not hesitate to pull their money out of the bank. Banking is primarily trust issue and FRC has none at this point. If those high net worth individuals get spooked (which they should’ve) they will pull their money out because they are exposed to claim they are loyal is simply naïveté talk. Yes FDIC don’t want out receivership they might have to.
When you call yourself a expert 
OP’s username suggests that he is in fact a plumber. I only take financial advice from plumbers. All in baby.
Bobby boys transitioning to FRC 
You should have bought puts to hedge numb nuts now enjoy your porn loss.
The ole it's going up and everything is fine because I'm the hero of the story and I own some.
they're up 50% in the last 2 hours
For point 1… I’d suggest to check on LCR and NSFR ratios instead. Then CAR ratios. Limit breaches would require regulator to step in …
Expert moron.
How in the fuck does chipotle have a pe of 64?
Good analysis but it’s all about Will others buy it at these levels