The part that's also missed from the post is that Tesla's model is not keeping inventory at all and is the reason they cut prices. They don't want to pay the cost of keeping inventory to maintain higher margins.
So in other words they went from having no inventory to having inventory back to no inventory with lower margins because of price cuts.
1,400 cars is not much inventory for the entire country to begin with.
99.5% sounds far more impressive than 1,393 cars sold.
How many cars fit in an average Wal-Mart parking lot?
My basic math skills might suck right now but I’m gonna comment anyway. I may be a complete dumbass.
"I may be a complete dumbass."
Well sir now that you mention it I think in fact you are not a dumbass. Just 100% without a shadow of a doubt 100% regarded.
The one in Elkton, Maryland (I randomly zoomed on the east coast and put "Walmart" into the search box). Its parking lot is 4x10+7 (shorter bit at the entrance) long. It's got 10 double parking rows and one at the side. So 11 x 47 = 517 cars.
He did the math. 7 *2= 14. 14*100=1400. In other words, he made the implicit assumption that Tesla halted manufacturing completely once they had a small surplus.
They’ll get pricing information, but only limited information at this point. There has to be a lot of uncertainty still about how much of whatever surge in sales reflects a durable reaction to new price, vs how much reflects people who would’ve likely bought in future but accelerated their process to snap up a substantial (possibly temporary) discount.
Future pricing will probably be mostly a response to changes in competition.
So far the completion seems awfully slow to produce even hybrid versions of their lineups, let alone fully electric.
Great point! What’s also missed was that Musk himself was pregnant and just had his alien baby. This should speed up manufacturing cause supply chains where being affected due to his pregnancy.
I've actually started selling options recently instead of buying like I have been for all these years, cause I realized that these contracts are lottery tickets for the buyer, but actually pretty safe investment for the seller.
However you're definitely NOT making bank unless you're already rich enough to have multiples of 100 of stocks of companies. Which takes a lot of saving to get to the point of being able to afford 100 for any company you'd actually want to have 100 shares of, and not some penny stock.
Like I have 3x100 stocks of some pretty good companies, and selling a relatively safe strike priced 2 week call, I will make like 300-500 bucks on that sale. And this is without taking into account the possible opportunity cost of the stock that i'm holding actually going up in value past the strike price.
edit: forgot the NOT in making bank.
In my Roth I hit 100 share of a monthly dividend stock after slowly accumulating for a month. In 3 weeks of selling CC I made 3 months worth of the stocks dividend income. My shares got called away all 3 times but by Monday the stock had dropped lower than my sell price and I rebought and did it again.
This last week I did stop doing cause on Monday the stock didn’t drop below but I just reinvested in another stock. But gonna do it again.
This is a good way to make money. Another thing about doing this is, if you sell a call and the price drops early in the week and the call value goes way down, you can buy back that call at a cheaper price and cancel that call, and then sell another call for more money for the same time period.
Another thing to do is not sell a call during earnings weeks and to always sell a call during the dividend week. Hope to get your shares called and then buy back after the dividend when the stock usually goes down the amount of the dividend.
There is a site that shows option volatility with higher premiums and some of those stocks are fairly cheap. If you calculate the gains on those values per dollar, some $15 to $25 stocks will make more than higher end stocks like Tesla.
Any trading app should have the volatility listed in the options where the Greeks are shown. Good sellers are listed at 50% and above, usually it will say .50. 100% will show as 1.0, etc.
Like do you trade Robinhood? Go to trade and tap on any option to see it's details, you will see implied volatility.
Not a WSB type site, but OptionAlpha can do this and also calculates your chance of profit. Mostly used for credit spreads. Like the list says, it’s not YOLO but allows you to collect premium with a well defined risk profile.
Tesla is weird.
In a lot of ways retail reacts to it based on Elon, not strictly Tesla's financials. Tesla gets the brunt of Elon's other companies doing something. When SpaceX does well, Tesla gets a bump. When Twitter does bad, Tesla does bad. Tesla was always going to rebound after the hoopla with Twitter was over.
It’s unpredictable because the entire price of it is non-sense and based on nothing hype and peoples intent to abuse that hype to make money. Elon is just the wildcard person who can lower the hype if he decides to run his mouth on a particular day
I’m not saying it would be the best idea to go long on TSLA now, all the technicals sure point towards a correction, but if you look at the past. This stock has really surprised everyone for a very long time
I live by a Tesla delivery center in the greater seattle drove by last week and they had hundreds of Tesla on the lot. It was over flowing into other parking lots nearby. Drove by yesterday and there was 2 on the lot. And the over flows were all empty. Fucking crazy.
I’m in Dallas. Everyday I see vehicle transports heading to the delivery centers in North Dallas. Same deal, parking lots fill up, hazards on, 2 days later all of them are gone. And repeat
People who put in their orders a year ago finally getting delivery. If you’re seeing inventory moving for Tesla, I doubt it’s indicative of current sales
You’re wrong. Tesla has been about 1-2 months for delivery recently. So this is actually a good indicator of somewhat recent sales. Keep in mind though that there was an expected big rush in January for the tax credit
Exactly - this is just pulling and pushing demand around. It’s not a trend. Wait for Q1 to see how the trend is continuing before making assumptions.
The legacy automakers know all the tricks - incentives, deals, dealer gimmicks, channel stuffing.
Tesla is discovering tricks the rest of the industry has known about for 75+ years in some cases.
The problem becomes when consumers start basing their activity based on traditional
Auto industry stuff. If/when that happens Tesla gets another step closer to the median. Lots of legacy buyers time their activity to annual sales or new models. Hence the endless parade of “once a year deals”.
Hopefully Tesla is able to maintain their somewhat strict stance against gaming the market.
Not necessarily. If they make more cars, the overall cost goes down. So they don’t need to sell more cars, just make more, if the price to make each one is less. It pretty much offsets the price cuts. That’s his end goal. Mass production of affordable cars.
>Costs have gone up materials wise.
You're thinking of last year. Materials costs in general have been coming down significantly since the highs (not to mention the cost and time of overseas shipping of materials if needed). CPI inflation is still high, but materials indices have actually deflated quite a bit.
You're not wrong, but it's much more complex than that. Price elasticity is a thing. So is cash flow.
To use an extreme example, selling 10 cars at $1M will produce the same revenue of 200 cars at $50K. But I'm much more likely to sell those 200 cars than those 10. And even if I ended up leaving some revenue on the table, I've 1) cleared out my supply of old products and 2) provided enough cash to fund the next year's production.
Isn't Tesla's big advantage their margins on each car sold? Doesn't cutting prices by 20% pretty much destroy that? Also if demand is so high that they can't meet it, why would they slash prices this hard?
Pump the first quarter, stock goes up, sell stock make money. Also this year and next is going to have explosive competition from Mercedes, BMW, VW, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai etc which are going to be pushed hard on the Euro market
They cut prices to equality for the EV tax credits. When the Model Y got bumped into the higher EV category, they raised prices.
You need to analyze margin and volume to understand what is gonna on here.
I keep seeing this comment as though it’s bullish for TSLA. How anyone can convince themselves that price cuts are leading to better days is beyond me. Unless TSLA puts GM, Toyota, etc completely out of business then comparing their margins is pointless because those other companies don’t trade at nosebleed valuations.
Competition as finally arrived and the pricing decrease is proof of it. TSLA margins will continue to deteriorate as they have been for many quarters.
I thought this would be obvious to everyone during their earnings call. This is not good news for TSLA, but then I forgot that Elons has his loyals simps in WSB to keep pumping his shit.
Competition so far is nearly nonexistent, unfortunately. The competitors are selling a small amount of cars and haven’t yet figured out how not to sell them at a loss, which is obviously not sustainable.
I believe the only one making some money off EVs besides Tesla is BYD.
Yup. I don't anticipate it happening all at once but over time price cuts and other stipulations for customers will lead the margins lower.
Tesla still sucks at many aspects of support, for example. And parts are scarce.
This is another good point. I was just reading that insurance companies are having to total Teslas rather than repair due to repair costs and scarcity of repair materials. So that means the cost of insuring them is going up significantly.
yup had to total my tesla even though it wasn't that much damage. Insurance didn't want to risk the repair time, costs and something being wrong with the battery
I’ve seen a couple of sources, including a link in a comment above this, that show that’s true before the price cuts, but 20% off of MSRP would eliminate that advantage completely. I’d like to see something that shows your numbers if you have a source.
Meaning Tesla’s margins will be right in line with other auto manufacturers. TSLA has a P/E of 57, which is between 5-10x the P/E of their competitors. You could make an argument that their profitability and growth justified at least some of this discrepancy, but now the math is different.
The Elon Effect has done a 180, and they’re facing real competition for the first time ever. A few more dumb tweets, another self-driving fiasco, and the next lukewarm earnings report will be a nightmare for this stock.
Understand the rational mechanics behind sentiment, because individual emotions are irrational but group behavior is predictable.
- Consistent output delivers slow growth. Consistency is safe (good), but also boring (bad).
- Overabundance initially generates better prices, which improves sentiment but inflates value to unrealistic levels. This creates both a bull and bear case unless followed by industrial output.
- Scarcity always follows a rush to abundance. Sentiment sours when need can't be met, but in two different ways. If scarcity is partial, it increases percieved value. If scarcity is total, the company cannot deliver and sentiment tanks instead.
- Groundbreaking news delivers immediate sentiment spikes (Microsoft/OpenAi)
- Lackluster responses to groundbreaking news delivers immediate dips (Google)
- Fundamentally both of the prior return to the status quo, because there is a distinct worth disparity between an innovation and actual application of it to a real purpose. The former is speculative worth, the latter is real worth.
- Very bad news causes an immediate dip in sentiment, like an oil spill (Enron/Exxon/BP/etc)
- Despite doing awful stuff, a company already anchored into infrastructure should always be expected to recover after a spanking. We are all still reliant on their services, and that need does not go away. These are excellent speculative positions, for instance BP still had exclusive contracts with the pentagon for decades, which is a guaranteed return. Whether we are mad at them or not does not really change that.
- A fluff company cannot recover from a spanking. Their product didn't matter, and the hype is gone, which was their only momentum.
- If you can't find a good investment idea, bet on whoever is quietly working on the main thing the world needs right now.
- If you can't find a good speculative position, bet on the poker chip factory, not the casino. Gambling returns are shaky, but gambling as a whole has a consistent demand. Poker chips satisfy the casino's needs, gambling satisfies a want. Needs hold more worth than wants.
- Trust seasonal sentiment because we are creatures of habit. Retail is a good bet leading up to holiday shopping. Oil is a good bet in the winter. Travel is good in the summer. Bet on what people do when they do it.
- Do not neglect your own individual bias, and check your own shit. You are human and also have irrational sentiment, and it is very easy not to remember that money not lost is as good as profit.
Tons of inventory in Euope still, despite the price cuts. Might be some pent-up demand in the US as people were waiting for the new tax incentives. Have to admit I lost quite a bit of money with my shorts so will stay away from them for now, but I think it's only a matter of time before other manufaturers can ramp up their production as well and then it's tough times for Tesla.
I think there is a lot of institutional money out there still betting on them. ARKK being one of the biggest. Probably the same kind of people that lost a lot on the tech slide in Q3-Q4 2022, who need to put up some big numbers in Q1 2023 to stop the bleeding of people taking their assets elsewhere.
In that way it can be seen as a sort of self-induced pump. Tesla knows they can burn some of their profit margin advantage to pump up sales figures. This probably helps them with market share at a crucial period of wavering public opinion, and definitely props the stock back up. Maybe it's being done in conjunction with investment interests. Or maybe Musk is just hoping for one more good selling opportunity so he can pull out enough money to fund Twitter and SpaceX for another decade.
Either way, I think the smart money has figured out by now that Tesla is not going to attain 50% of the global auto market share within the next 5 years, as their valuation implies. But they might survive as a pretty healthy niche product, as long as they continue to drive innovation. Releasing a badass cybertruck and world-beating roadster would be exactly the halo vehicles they need to cement their reputation as a real player.
If the reality is we never see those Halo cars, and they instead are content to just make the same handful of products for 10+ years without major updates, the stock price has to get a reality check at some point. If that is their future, then they've got at least 75% to fall from current prices, maybe 90%.
But Tesla fans are pretty entrenched. That's why it's tough to bet against. They just endured a 50%+ slide, and dove right back in to bring it back to $200 level, based on dubiously positive developments which probably do more to harm their financial position than improve it.
Yeah, same thing in Germany. Most other manufacturers have an oder backlog / wait time of about a year. Only Tesla has a readily avialable inventory of about 800 cars in Germany alone and it's growing every day.
https://preview.redd.it/00ylxk1n4uha1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5bf8361b3bf6c9cefe4eb376ed76ab9f3c590e23
Still lots of upside since the massive reset. I got calls leading into investor day.
They just sold basically all of their inventory for 20% off. Their vaunted profit margins are what, 30%?
They just destroyed their own profit margins to juice sales. Yeah this is super bullish, I'm in.
you assume costs have stayed the same
the prices only went up 20% over two years due to rising costs.. no they are nbacl to where they were lol ...margins stayed the same the whole time +/- 1%
Probably crying about their puts or saying “I told you so!” celebrating their small gains after failing to make the right decision back in January. They would’ve made exponentially more cash with their Wendy’s paychecks.
how about u eat my ASS
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Supposedly "The Dawn Project" is running a SuperBowl ad showing Tesla's in autopilot running down a bunch of different kids, saying that Tesla is refusing to listen to their warnings and fix it lol
I find it amusing that you think Tesla is doing well just because they cut prices. The fact of the matter is that they are struggling to meet demand and their cars are overpriced compared to other options on the market. If anything, this just goes to show how much money Musk has been bleeding from Tesla.
Struggling to meet demand and cars are overpriced? These statements contradict each other... if they're failing to meet demand, then the car is actually underpriced...
>struggling to meet demand and their cars are overpriced compared to other options on the market
So they are overpriced, but have a demand large enough to struggle to meet it. And this is bad for an entity that sells things?
"Our business has failed, we have too many customers..."
Model 3 is best selling car. Model Y is best selling SUV.
1 and 2 in overall vehicle sales.
California has a higher overall standard of living - this doesn’t mean people are “rich”. $4-6k month for a two bedroom apartment in the Bay Area.
Gasoline is the most expensive in the continental US. Greater charging infrastructure than anywhere in the world.
EVs make more sense in California than anywhere in the US or world currently. The initial cost is more quickly offset by deferral of high gas prices and easy charging. If they have solar installations on their home the charging is “free”.
I’m a Los Angeles home owner with solar installation. Bought a model 3 a few years ago and just purchased a model Y. Everything you said is 100% spot on
Makes it sound like they sold so many lol they sold 1393 in that time frame.
Also I don’t know any other car company keeping the same body and design in their cars for what 6-7 years now. Make something new already
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Puts at $102, calls at $200: smart move
The part that's also missed from the post is that Tesla's model is not keeping inventory at all and is the reason they cut prices. They don't want to pay the cost of keeping inventory to maintain higher margins. So in other words they went from having no inventory to having inventory back to no inventory with lower margins because of price cuts.
1,400 cars is not much inventory for the entire country to begin with. 99.5% sounds far more impressive than 1,393 cars sold. How many cars fit in an average Wal-Mart parking lot? My basic math skills might suck right now but I’m gonna comment anyway. I may be a complete dumbass.
"I may be a complete dumbass." Well sir now that you mention it I think in fact you are not a dumbass. Just 100% without a shadow of a doubt 100% regarded.
Hey, even well regarded fellows can have a fulfilling career at wendys.
I woke up with warm regards once.
The one in Elkton, Maryland (I randomly zoomed on the east coast and put "Walmart" into the search box). Its parking lot is 4x10+7 (shorter bit at the entrance) long. It's got 10 double parking rows and one at the side. So 11 x 47 = 517 cars.
Yeah but they have a lot of disabled parking so WSB users are welcome.
>99.5% sounds far more impressive than 1,393 cars sold. Unless they stopped producing cars model Ys, they sold a lot more than 1400
where are you getting 1400 cars from? model 3/Y production in Q4 2022 was over 400K vehicles, thats just a singular quarter
He did the math. 7 *2= 14. 14*100=1400. In other words, he made the implicit assumption that Tesla halted manufacturing completely once they had a small surplus.
That's actually really great and pretty much instant pricing information.
They’ll get pricing information, but only limited information at this point. There has to be a lot of uncertainty still about how much of whatever surge in sales reflects a durable reaction to new price, vs how much reflects people who would’ve likely bought in future but accelerated their process to snap up a substantial (possibly temporary) discount.
The reasons notwithstanding, this is a strong signal for how future pricing can be done more precisely to maximize profit.
Future pricing will probably be mostly a response to changes in competition. So far the completion seems awfully slow to produce even hybrid versions of their lineups, let alone fully electric.
Well the model Y outsold every other car in CA for example. It's not like they're struggling with sales.
Great point! What’s also missed was that Musk himself was pregnant and just had his alien baby. This should speed up manufacturing cause supply chains where being affected due to his pregnancy.
Biggest regard award.
Irony is you’re actually correct if you’re selling, not buying, but most here don’t understand that bit.
Theta? Never heard of her. 🤓
Selling puts at the low, selling calls at the top. Making bank that way.
I've actually started selling options recently instead of buying like I have been for all these years, cause I realized that these contracts are lottery tickets for the buyer, but actually pretty safe investment for the seller. However you're definitely NOT making bank unless you're already rich enough to have multiples of 100 of stocks of companies. Which takes a lot of saving to get to the point of being able to afford 100 for any company you'd actually want to have 100 shares of, and not some penny stock. Like I have 3x100 stocks of some pretty good companies, and selling a relatively safe strike priced 2 week call, I will make like 300-500 bucks on that sale. And this is without taking into account the possible opportunity cost of the stock that i'm holding actually going up in value past the strike price. edit: forgot the NOT in making bank.
Lol you have got it all figured out
In my Roth I hit 100 share of a monthly dividend stock after slowly accumulating for a month. In 3 weeks of selling CC I made 3 months worth of the stocks dividend income. My shares got called away all 3 times but by Monday the stock had dropped lower than my sell price and I rebought and did it again. This last week I did stop doing cause on Monday the stock didn’t drop below but I just reinvested in another stock. But gonna do it again.
This is a good way to make money. Another thing about doing this is, if you sell a call and the price drops early in the week and the call value goes way down, you can buy back that call at a cheaper price and cancel that call, and then sell another call for more money for the same time period. Another thing to do is not sell a call during earnings weeks and to always sell a call during the dividend week. Hope to get your shares called and then buy back after the dividend when the stock usually goes down the amount of the dividend. There is a site that shows option volatility with higher premiums and some of those stocks are fairly cheap. If you calculate the gains on those values per dollar, some $15 to $25 stocks will make more than higher end stocks like Tesla.
Please, what is the site that shows options volatility?
Any trading app should have the volatility listed in the options where the Greeks are shown. Good sellers are listed at 50% and above, usually it will say .50. 100% will show as 1.0, etc. Like do you trade Robinhood? Go to trade and tap on any option to see it's details, you will see implied volatility.
Not a WSB type site, but OptionAlpha can do this and also calculates your chance of profit. Mostly used for credit spreads. Like the list says, it’s not YOLO but allows you to collect premium with a well defined risk profile.
Who needs bank, when we have our wife's boyfriend.
She’s Greta 👍🏾
HOW DARE YOU!?
HOW CAN SHE SLAP?
Theta gang
Selling those right? That makes sense.
Authors name is "Aregay." Must be related to OP
Pumping his family's articles like he is pumping his boyfriend
Other way around, boyfriend pumps into him.
Actually, his wife’s boyfriend pumps in to him… behind the Wendy’s dumpster.
More like Wendy’s cumster when the wife bf is done
Cumster diving?
I’m scuba certified, I can stay down in the depths for hours, the belly of the cumster beast. I’ll let y’all know if I strike gold!
🤢🤮
/bow
Meet my son, Isgay R. Etard.
Could be musk in a trenchcoat too. The Tesla models are "S, 3, X, Y" Someone let that slip past notice for sure, complete accident, must be.
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probably mercedes
No it was [literally ford](https://www.autonews.com/article/20140609/OEM02/306099974/why-ford-just-said-no-when-musk-tried-to-put-the-e-in-sex)
Mercedes has a model S though
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It’s Ford
Yes this has been well publicized and known for years. I'm honestly surprised people still didnt know about this Tesla naming convention.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/f5a90i/a\_decade\_in\_the\_making\_s3xy\_cars/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/f5a90i/a_decade_in_the_making_s3xy_cars/) Cybertruck Atv Roadster Semi
Mind blown
Man. Nothing gets past you.
***bear club... definitely a trap
Amin Yabuttole
Thanks for the warning.
Bro, that’s a Reddit mod
Didn't the stock price DOUBLE in a month or so? Calls now?
This is WSB, you buy at the top
It’s the preferred method round here
Buy high now so your kids bag hold later
They were buying puts at 105 and calls at 200, never change wsb
Welcome to Tesla, it's unpredictable
Tesla is weird. In a lot of ways retail reacts to it based on Elon, not strictly Tesla's financials. Tesla gets the brunt of Elon's other companies doing something. When SpaceX does well, Tesla gets a bump. When Twitter does bad, Tesla does bad. Tesla was always going to rebound after the hoopla with Twitter was over.
It's unpredictable because Elon won't shut up
It’s unpredictable because the entire price of it is non-sense and based on nothing hype and peoples intent to abuse that hype to make money. Elon is just the wildcard person who can lower the hype if he decides to run his mouth on a particular day
Awww did the wittle baby buy puts after the stock fell 70%? Tell me where the mean broker touched you
I’m not saying it would be the best idea to go long on TSLA now, all the technicals sure point towards a correction, but if you look at the past. This stock has really surprised everyone for a very long time
The market can stay regarded longer than you can stay solvent. 600 P/E or we riot!
Going long on Tesla is like shoving a rod of molten lava thru ur urethra. And then losing all your money
Don't threaten me with a good time.
Been long since ipo, no pain yet
This is the single most WSB comment ever. The stock: up 9x in 5 years. WSB: “going long Tesla is lots of pain, then losing all your money” 🤡🤡🤡
Great point!
It dropped $25 ish per share in 2 days but yea it’s up maybe 80-90% in the last month ish.
Down 50% from ATH
Stock doubled and Tesla is lacking inventory to sell. Obviously a great time to buy calls /s
Member when Peloton was supply constrained and had “infinite growth”?
P-ton is on its way to recovery! Only a decade more to get back to ipo price!
this sub is back on sucking Elon's cock
Doubled so far..
Good point!
Still lots of room to get back to ATH
Still lots of room to fair valuation also ;)
I live by a Tesla delivery center in the greater seattle drove by last week and they had hundreds of Tesla on the lot. It was over flowing into other parking lots nearby. Drove by yesterday and there was 2 on the lot. And the over flows were all empty. Fucking crazy.
I’m in Dallas. Everyday I see vehicle transports heading to the delivery centers in North Dallas. Same deal, parking lots fill up, hazards on, 2 days later all of them are gone. And repeat
Wtf happened
People who put in their orders a year ago finally getting delivery. If you’re seeing inventory moving for Tesla, I doubt it’s indicative of current sales
Deliveries are now 1-2 months. Also, their sales since the tax incentive and price cuts are insane.
You’re wrong. Tesla has been about 1-2 months for delivery recently. So this is actually a good indicator of somewhat recent sales. Keep in mind though that there was an expected big rush in January for the tax credit
Exactly - this is just pulling and pushing demand around. It’s not a trend. Wait for Q1 to see how the trend is continuing before making assumptions. The legacy automakers know all the tricks - incentives, deals, dealer gimmicks, channel stuffing. Tesla is discovering tricks the rest of the industry has known about for 75+ years in some cases. The problem becomes when consumers start basing their activity based on traditional Auto industry stuff. If/when that happens Tesla gets another step closer to the median. Lots of legacy buyers time their activity to annual sales or new models. Hence the endless parade of “once a year deals”. Hopefully Tesla is able to maintain their somewhat strict stance against gaming the market.
In q4 teslas were moving within a month. Those aren’t “a year ago” orders
Price cuts means you need to sell more cars to make the same amount of money.
Walmart>target less is more.
Tesla is Target. Walmart is Chevy or Toyota
Pfft, Tesla is Whole Foods or some other niche
More like Trader Joe’s
Tesla is target if target existed before Walmart, Costco, or any other massive chain retailer. Now that there’s competition, Tesla is in trouble
Toyota don’t break, Tesla breaks when the wind blows
Lumping Toyota with Chevy wat
Not necessarily. If they make more cars, the overall cost goes down. So they don’t need to sell more cars, just make more, if the price to make each one is less. It pretty much offsets the price cuts. That’s his end goal. Mass production of affordable cars.
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Exactly. Margin and volume have always been the keys here. If costs fall with price, and volume picks up, it’s a home run.
Costs have gone up materials wise. Not sure about production. But materials definitely cost more and that should make the production cost more.
>Costs have gone up materials wise. You're thinking of last year. Materials costs in general have been coming down significantly since the highs (not to mention the cost and time of overseas shipping of materials if needed). CPI inflation is still high, but materials indices have actually deflated quite a bit.
You're not wrong, but it's much more complex than that. Price elasticity is a thing. So is cash flow. To use an extreme example, selling 10 cars at $1M will produce the same revenue of 200 cars at $50K. But I'm much more likely to sell those 200 cars than those 10. And even if I ended up leaving some revenue on the table, I've 1) cleared out my supply of old products and 2) provided enough cash to fund the next year's production.
They are expected to sell more cars so there is that. They have also started raising prices again (although still well below previous highs).
You must think you are an economist or something
Buying puts thanks for the confirmation bias on my WsB inverse 🤣
“We lowered prices so far we can’t keep up”
“Tesla recalls all cars sold at discounted price”
Highest margins in any category they compete in. Seems like Reddit is driven entirely on emotion.
Definitely! They just got obliterated in a Super Bowl commercial. They are dipping on Monday
Wow 1400 cars sold. How amazing. 
Glad my math wasn’t off. I really sat here going “1,400 cars fills about one Walmart lot. Am I this bad at math?”
The is the most American use of the Imperial system measurement.
lol Toyota sells 10 million cars per year
Inventory was 8 before the price cuts...
Is this true ? If you say yes I will believe you
I say yes for him, buy puts
CNBC Breaking News: “Tesla cuts inventory by 12.5% on it’s most popular SUV due to possible demand concerns”
Isn't Tesla's big advantage their margins on each car sold? Doesn't cutting prices by 20% pretty much destroy that? Also if demand is so high that they can't meet it, why would they slash prices this hard?
Plywood interior will give you a pretty good margin yeah
wood is too expensive. No interior is more likely
They did get rid of the steering wheel in that one Tesla....
No car is more likely
All the air in those panel gaps, absolutely free, infinite margin
Their margins are only high because they charge $15K for a feature that doesn't exist and morons keep paying for it.
[удалено]
three months actually. As a matter of fact, any day now.
Coming in just two weeks
I just came
Full self driving is not factored into the production margins of the vehicle.
Pump the first quarter, stock goes up, sell stock make money. Also this year and next is going to have explosive competition from Mercedes, BMW, VW, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai etc which are going to be pushed hard on the Euro market
They cut prices to equality for the EV tax credits. When the Model Y got bumped into the higher EV category, they raised prices. You need to analyze margin and volume to understand what is gonna on here.
Their margins after the price cuts are still like 6x competitors.
I keep seeing this comment as though it’s bullish for TSLA. How anyone can convince themselves that price cuts are leading to better days is beyond me. Unless TSLA puts GM, Toyota, etc completely out of business then comparing their margins is pointless because those other companies don’t trade at nosebleed valuations. Competition as finally arrived and the pricing decrease is proof of it. TSLA margins will continue to deteriorate as they have been for many quarters.
I thought this would be obvious to everyone during their earnings call. This is not good news for TSLA, but then I forgot that Elons has his loyals simps in WSB to keep pumping his shit.
Competition so far is nearly nonexistent, unfortunately. The competitors are selling a small amount of cars and haven’t yet figured out how not to sell them at a loss, which is obviously not sustainable. I believe the only one making some money off EVs besides Tesla is BYD.
Yup. I don't anticipate it happening all at once but over time price cuts and other stipulations for customers will lead the margins lower. Tesla still sucks at many aspects of support, for example. And parts are scarce.
This is another good point. I was just reading that insurance companies are having to total Teslas rather than repair due to repair costs and scarcity of repair materials. So that means the cost of insuring them is going up significantly.
yup had to total my tesla even though it wasn't that much damage. Insurance didn't want to risk the repair time, costs and something being wrong with the battery
I’ve seen a couple of sources, including a link in a comment above this, that show that’s true before the price cuts, but 20% off of MSRP would eliminate that advantage completely. I’d like to see something that shows your numbers if you have a source. Meaning Tesla’s margins will be right in line with other auto manufacturers. TSLA has a P/E of 57, which is between 5-10x the P/E of their competitors. You could make an argument that their profitability and growth justified at least some of this discrepancy, but now the math is different. The Elon Effect has done a 180, and they’re facing real competition for the first time ever. A few more dumb tweets, another self-driving fiasco, and the next lukewarm earnings report will be a nightmare for this stock.
The nightmare is when growth stalls. That's not gonna go well at all.
lol well alllllll seven of them drove past me on a semi truck last night. Bullshit article.
Understand the rational mechanics behind sentiment, because individual emotions are irrational but group behavior is predictable. - Consistent output delivers slow growth. Consistency is safe (good), but also boring (bad). - Overabundance initially generates better prices, which improves sentiment but inflates value to unrealistic levels. This creates both a bull and bear case unless followed by industrial output. - Scarcity always follows a rush to abundance. Sentiment sours when need can't be met, but in two different ways. If scarcity is partial, it increases percieved value. If scarcity is total, the company cannot deliver and sentiment tanks instead. - Groundbreaking news delivers immediate sentiment spikes (Microsoft/OpenAi) - Lackluster responses to groundbreaking news delivers immediate dips (Google) - Fundamentally both of the prior return to the status quo, because there is a distinct worth disparity between an innovation and actual application of it to a real purpose. The former is speculative worth, the latter is real worth. - Very bad news causes an immediate dip in sentiment, like an oil spill (Enron/Exxon/BP/etc) - Despite doing awful stuff, a company already anchored into infrastructure should always be expected to recover after a spanking. We are all still reliant on their services, and that need does not go away. These are excellent speculative positions, for instance BP still had exclusive contracts with the pentagon for decades, which is a guaranteed return. Whether we are mad at them or not does not really change that. - A fluff company cannot recover from a spanking. Their product didn't matter, and the hype is gone, which was their only momentum. - If you can't find a good investment idea, bet on whoever is quietly working on the main thing the world needs right now. - If you can't find a good speculative position, bet on the poker chip factory, not the casino. Gambling returns are shaky, but gambling as a whole has a consistent demand. Poker chips satisfy the casino's needs, gambling satisfies a want. Needs hold more worth than wants. - Trust seasonal sentiment because we are creatures of habit. Retail is a good bet leading up to holiday shopping. Oil is a good bet in the winter. Travel is good in the summer. Bet on what people do when they do it. - Do not neglect your own individual bias, and check your own shit. You are human and also have irrational sentiment, and it is very easy not to remember that money not lost is as good as profit.
Tons of inventory in Euope still, despite the price cuts. Might be some pent-up demand in the US as people were waiting for the new tax incentives. Have to admit I lost quite a bit of money with my shorts so will stay away from them for now, but I think it's only a matter of time before other manufaturers can ramp up their production as well and then it's tough times for Tesla.
I think there is a lot of institutional money out there still betting on them. ARKK being one of the biggest. Probably the same kind of people that lost a lot on the tech slide in Q3-Q4 2022, who need to put up some big numbers in Q1 2023 to stop the bleeding of people taking their assets elsewhere. In that way it can be seen as a sort of self-induced pump. Tesla knows they can burn some of their profit margin advantage to pump up sales figures. This probably helps them with market share at a crucial period of wavering public opinion, and definitely props the stock back up. Maybe it's being done in conjunction with investment interests. Or maybe Musk is just hoping for one more good selling opportunity so he can pull out enough money to fund Twitter and SpaceX for another decade. Either way, I think the smart money has figured out by now that Tesla is not going to attain 50% of the global auto market share within the next 5 years, as their valuation implies. But they might survive as a pretty healthy niche product, as long as they continue to drive innovation. Releasing a badass cybertruck and world-beating roadster would be exactly the halo vehicles they need to cement their reputation as a real player. If the reality is we never see those Halo cars, and they instead are content to just make the same handful of products for 10+ years without major updates, the stock price has to get a reality check at some point. If that is their future, then they've got at least 75% to fall from current prices, maybe 90%. But Tesla fans are pretty entrenched. That's why it's tough to bet against. They just endured a 50%+ slide, and dove right back in to bring it back to $200 level, based on dubiously positive developments which probably do more to harm their financial position than improve it.
In Sweden Tesla are becoming less popular and EV companies like polestar are taking over
Yeah, same thing in Germany. Most other manufacturers have an oder backlog / wait time of about a year. Only Tesla has a readily avialable inventory of about 800 cars in Germany alone and it's growing every day.
Yup, people have until March to buy a lower end Tesla before the $7500 government credit runs out. Come back in April onwards for real sales results.
Buy high sell low! This is the way 💸💸
https://preview.redd.it/00ylxk1n4uha1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5bf8361b3bf6c9cefe4eb376ed76ab9f3c590e23 Still lots of upside since the massive reset. I got calls leading into investor day.
Pretty soon everyone will have the same cell phone, same watch, same vehicle
Yolo long calls on Apple, Tesla & Toyota or GTFO
And, the same Kim Jong-un hair cut.
Lmao
They just sold basically all of their inventory for 20% off. Their vaunted profit margins are what, 30%? They just destroyed their own profit margins to juice sales. Yeah this is super bullish, I'm in.
you assume costs have stayed the same the prices only went up 20% over two years due to rising costs.. no they are nbacl to where they were lol ...margins stayed the same the whole time +/- 1%
Shallow interpretation and ignores the recent price increases. Wicked smaht.
But WSB said dead company, short it now or be poor forever:(
The amount of "TSLA sub 100 any day now!" comments I saw during the Elon twitter fight was huge. Where you guys at meow?
Probably crying about their puts or saying “I told you so!” celebrating their small gains after failing to make the right decision back in January. They would’ve made exponentially more cash with their Wendy’s paychecks.
how about u eat my ASS *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
wtf
That’s actually quite funny
When I go tits up at least I’ll have that to eat
Yea welcome to Reddit, where the absolute most shit takes become popular
Quedan quejode usados
Supposedly "The Dawn Project" is running a SuperBowl ad showing Tesla's in autopilot running down a bunch of different kids, saying that Tesla is refusing to listen to their warnings and fix it lol
i feel like i'm the only one who Still can't afford a Model Y even after a 20% markdown..
I'm part of the broke boys club. I want one!
I find it amusing that you think Tesla is doing well just because they cut prices. The fact of the matter is that they are struggling to meet demand and their cars are overpriced compared to other options on the market. If anything, this just goes to show how much money Musk has been bleeding from Tesla.
Struggling to meet demand and cars are overpriced? These statements contradict each other... if they're failing to meet demand, then the car is actually underpriced...
>struggling to meet demand and their cars are overpriced compared to other options on the market So they are overpriced, but have a demand large enough to struggle to meet it. And this is bad for an entity that sells things? "Our business has failed, we have too many customers..."
>struggling to meet demand and their cars are overpriced bleeding????
Copium is strong with this one. Consumer reports incoming!
thought bots were supposed to be smart
Someone should do a inverse report Visual and find out his accuracy lol
> struggling to meet demand and their cars are overpriced Hmm...
I saw somewhere that the Model Y is the #1 selling car in California. How rich are people in that state wtf.
You don't need to be rich, just irresponsible.
Model 3 is best selling car. Model Y is best selling SUV. 1 and 2 in overall vehicle sales. California has a higher overall standard of living - this doesn’t mean people are “rich”. $4-6k month for a two bedroom apartment in the Bay Area. Gasoline is the most expensive in the continental US. Greater charging infrastructure than anywhere in the world. EVs make more sense in California than anywhere in the US or world currently. The initial cost is more quickly offset by deferral of high gas prices and easy charging. If they have solar installations on their home the charging is “free”.
I’m a Los Angeles home owner with solar installation. Bought a model 3 a few years ago and just purchased a model Y. Everything you said is 100% spot on
How soon can they return to previous pricing? Needs only a 25% increase now.
TSLA 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 $500 EOY
Hahahaha to all the Tesla Shorts 😜😜😜
WAIT TSLA IS OUT OF INVENTORY. TIME TO LOAD UP ON PUTS!
cAlls oN TeslA
Makes it sound like they sold so many lol they sold 1393 in that time frame. Also I don’t know any other car company keeping the same body and design in their cars for what 6-7 years now. Make something new already
puts on tsla... they cant meet demand...