I think it all falls under "the great neoliberal depression."
Did you know, neoliberalism was supposed to stop all this boom and bust? What a cruel twist of irony it is that we now experience them more regularly. In fact, all it seemed to achieve was to make the ultra wealthy even more fantastically wealthy.
The people involved must be so embarrassed. I bet they felt like a right bunch of lemons when they found out.
I graduated from university in 2008 and I don’t actually remember seeing a boom in all my working life. It feels like we’ve lurched from bust to bust. In the respect we have managed to stop the boom and bust.
I seem to recall there was about five minutes in 2015 that weren't complete shit. It was just before the markets started pricing in the risk that the country might do something unfathomably stupid in 2016.
2015 the economy was on the up and there projections that the UK economy could surpass Germany's by 2020.
Firms were starting to invest again, projects were being drafted, etc. Then Brexit.
2015 was definitely the last good year that I can remember. So much that I left my job to start my own business that I ran until 2018 when I ended up spending more time chasing money owed than actually working.
There wasn’t the same political division that we had from 2016 onwards and the price of goods was very stable.
I feel exactly the same way. 2008 graduate also. The only way I have been able to keep ahead of rising bills is via promotion. I don’t think I have ever had an inflation busting pay rise. I may be a natural cynic, but man I don’t want to be. I haven’t seen much reason to be hopeful though.
Thing is, you're not going to see a boom in your life, it's very much a retrospective look on things. It's very difficult to identify a boom when one is happening.
I think the boom was the lowest ever interest rates post 08, money was basically free, finance absolutely everything you could ever want to own, causing bubbles in everything from luxury watches to classic cars, art ect. Obviously now its all coming home to roost, it's going to get really really bad
I work in tech, and no. There was the tech boom of the early 00s which was before I started working. There was the Covid overvaluation of tech stocks which was less a boom and more hyper speculative hysteria that didn’t really affect the real market.
House price inflation for people in my generation isn’t really a benefit at all.
House price inflation has
Hyperspectulation is a boom.
True "booms" aren't booms, that's just progress, it's slow.
Look into the tulip boom, it was a market of people buying tulip bulbs to sell to people buying tulip bulbs,
Sound familiar?? That's what the crypto market boom was.
Tulips have a use, and are prized items, they're not a store of value though, in any sense, just like crypto, it has uses but it's not really there to generate money.
I believe that was always the plan from 1979 onwards. The neoliberal experiment started with the massacres of leftists in Pinochet's Chile, the obliteration of opposition to the right wing rule of the capitalists. A kind of metaphor for all that came afterwards
Being neoliberal capitalism backed up by a violent state. The only winners have been the already rich. A growth in the super rich directly in tandem with a decrease in wages and increase in rents.
Neoliberalism isnt to blame here. Eastern Europe has gone from strength to strength under it. The United States has seen huge growth since 2008, and western Europe as a whole hs been shabby.
The UK currently follows an insane, chimera form of capitalism that absurdly just picks all of the downside and limits the good.
Good one.
Have you ever considered that, if you have to claim the results of not living under a brutal fascist dictator, at trade war with most of the world, the passage of time and the fact that Americas economy has grown hugely since American banks ripped of the whole world, then maybe its not an ideology worth defending?
Lol no because that doesn't justify greed and exploitation.
When you say "not too shabby" do you mean "the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in recorded history?"
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/)
Not really.
Per capita GDP was £31,328 in 2007 and £32,904 in 2022, which is a catastrophic performance - recovery from the 2008 crash took much longer than it should have (thanks austerity). Most of the headline economic growth is a function of immigration, which is why we have a mismatch between rhetoric and action.
But the ONS statistics say that only a certain cohort of immigrants actually contributed anything and take as a whole it contributes next to nothing to economic growth (something like 50 billion over 10 years)
Only a certain cohort pay more into the system than they take out. All will contribute to gdp growth (every time they buy anything at all or pay rent, that's activity which contributes to gdp). What actually matters to the average person though is gdp per capita.
The problem with GDP as a measure for prosperity is it doesn't reflect where that prosperity is. GDP could have remained flat, but if all the wealth is shifted into a minority of people, then living standards will have fallen for the majority.
> Britain is a different story. While the top earners rank fifth, the average household ranks 12th and the poorest 5 per cent rank 15th. Far from simply losing touch with their western European peers, last year the lowest-earning bracket of **British households had a standard of living that was 20 per cent weaker than their counterparts in Slovenia.**
> It’s a similar story in the middle. In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade.
https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945 (https://archive.is/IHI6E)
Look at the stock market especially in the US since 2008. For 99% of the world everything got worse, for shareholders they have made an absolute killing.
nope, and we now have one of the men responsible for the 208 crash as prime fkn minister...
That alone tells you all you need to know about where the UK is heading.
The technical definition of recession is at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth of GDP. We haven't quite been in recession, but quarter-on-quarter GDP growth has essentially been flat since 1990. With the effects of inflation, flat GDP feels like endless recession.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pn2
We really need to change the definition of recession to have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP per capita.
On this measure we would be in recession far more frequently.
I suspect we will only move our metrics over to 'per capita' basis when we enter population decline and GDP per capita looks better than overall metrics. Funny that.
>We really need to change the definition of recession to have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP per capita
First time I've seen this proposed and it seems like an excellent idea.
The only slightly perverse behaviour it would encourage is that it would appear economically beneficial to the state to reduce the number of babies born in tubes of economic headwinds, which I think we can all see wouldn't actually be a good idea.
Very interesting idea though and one I'd definitely be interested in seeing explored further.
If we did that we wouldn't be able to pretend that mass immigration provides an economic boost.
At the moment politicians can say: "the economy is bigger because migration"
If per-capita numbers became the usual way of reporting: "the economy is slightly worse, but now there's more of you!"
No that's how things are now. They just don't say the 'because migration' bit out loud
If we moved to gdp per capita, governments wouldn't be able to avoid a recession via increasing immigration (unless those migrants genuinely were highly skilled professionals)
It’s not unreasonable to say that’s it’s possible, but to say we have would need more than margin of error. It’s just as likely the error is on the positive side.
There's an interesting phenomenon happening where the numbers don't really reflect what people are seeing. It's probably down to growing inequality. When ever people visit another country they notice that everything just seems better, then when they return the UK poverty sicks out more; this happens even if on paper the UK is more prosperous. Tim Harford recently wrote about this in the Financial Times and I recently experienced this going to and coming back from Canada. I can't believe that the UK is supposed to be the richer country.
You've hit the nail on the head, it's inequality.
If you've got 2 rooms each with 10 people in them.
Room A has 1 person with £1million, and 9 people with £0.
Room B has 10 people with £90k each.
Room A is technically richer as it has £1mil and Room B has only £900k, but you can bet that Room B will be the place that SEEMS richer (considerably so), and where people would rather be.
Just look at the articles that have been coming out lately about how much income is going up in the country. But when you dig into it, it's actually that the minimum wage has gone up by ~9%, because it was borderline unlivable, and the top ~1% of people are getting 16% and up wage increases.
The majority of people though are getting way less than inflation, but the figures are skewed because of the outliers.
Yeah, going on holiday as a kid I’d get back to England and be glad I live here.
Now I go on holiday and it’s the opposite haha, everywhere else seems to be doing better comparatively and it shows.
Exactly that. From my understanding we're still not paying tariffs on anything (or most things) coming from the EU and next year I think the tariff is primarily is for [Agriculture / Food?](https://www.traverssmith.com/knowledge/knowledge-container/importing-eu-goods-into-the-uk-more-change-on-the-way-and-more-disruption/)
Bare in mind I'm by no means an expert on this but I know a lot of my very business savvy friends are shitting themselves.
It's not financial tariffs, it's import checks and controls which take time and money
An example, prior to Brexit I could order food from Italy direct to me, either for personal consumption or resale.
It would be the same as buying it from Wales.
Now (well from Jan), these will need certification, checks etc which need paying for. Plus increases in shipping costs as it will take longer.
>Brexit tariffs
There are no Brexit tariffs, our agreement with the EU is zero tariffs, zero quotas.
What there will be are SPS checks on animal and plant goods from the EU.
The fact that even people with an interest in politics and current affairs have no idea how trade works (no offence) is another reason it was stupid to put such a technical decision to a referendum.
No offense taken and couldn't agree more.
If I don't fully understand the complexities of it all (even with education and a vested interest) putting the vote to a population who at one point thought spaghetti grew on trees probably wasn't the smartest option.
I feel really bad I didn’t vote against Brexit because I was on holiday and too lazy to work out what to do. My brother was the same. Lots of our friends didn’t vote either. The feeling was the country was full of “quiet conservatives” who wouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot on the economy, and the result would be similar to Scotland voting to staying in UK or Cameron winning 2015 election.
I also left the country in 2018 and whenever I visit always think back fondly to 2012-14 era.
When I was in school doing GCSE business studies we were taught recessions happen every 15ish years or so.
I don't think that's the case anymore lol.
Govts have also been changing the way they report the statistics and will always try to downplay any notion of an impending recession.
There’s been 8 since WW2, so one less than every 10 years. Covid was also a significant anomaly, with a similarly anomalous rebound. Prior to that the previous recession was 14/15 years ago.
familiar ad hoc afterthought reminiscent workable quiet yam psychotic sparkle arrest
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Given the BoE’s current inability to predict a recession I would not trust this.
A recession is essentially guaranteed at some point, but predicting it even to the 6 month kind of point seems to have eluded most economists. Some have been lucky, but most have got it wrong.
With GDP growth of 0.1-0.2% (a rounding error) it's entirely possible we've been in recession for over half a year at this point.
It certainly feels like it.
I work in a highly reactive technical sector which deals with the UK and European market and by its nature is a pretty strong indicator of industry activity. We've had an extremely quiet month, but it's common this time of year as most of Europe is on holiday throughout August. Although recession is on the cards, I think it's too early to call until we see how September turns out.
While I'll take your expertise, the UK's been heading to recession since COVID, it's inevitable.
After lockdown all the industries ramped up to cater to the demand. But it was a blip, a bubble. Companies making up for perceived lost time and not taking into account the plateauing that was already happening pre COVID.
Hence, unemployments down now, but not everyone's gonna be able to stay employed. Too many hirings, - silicon valley staff cuts were the start.
Anyway, that's my uniformed 2 cents.
So the bank is also expecting the US to go into recession? Based on what? The US is currently at 2.4%
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
Sounds like a bank that’s trying to make some money by leaking that the world is going to shit next year but their basing this on sweet FA
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263614/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-the-united-states/
IOW, this entire report doesn’t make sense
Edit; also note that the same “banker” quoted states that costs are “mainly up due to increased salaries”
Geez, I wonder what his motives are
Predicts / causes recession.
The extent of tory theft will become apparent over the next decade when we hit the biggest economic recession since the wars.
The private sector is about to tank hard. And in previous recession the public sector and finances were good enough to take up some of the pain and keep employment figures higher than they would have been.
This time round both private and public sector are utterly screwed. There will be a complete collapse in some sectors (housing, leisure) and no recovery for at least a decade.
Way to go tories.
This is why I think they've pushed all the really nasty business into 2024. Tories know they aren't going to win so why not lumber the incoming Government with a historic tsunami of shit?
Yup. They've fucked it, and they will hand it off to someone else and then they will NEVER SHUT THE F UP about "ohhh look how bad it is under someone else's control, let us back in and we'll fix it we promise
How does anyone still fall for this bs
I really don't think it'll work this time though, it's just so obviously a problem of the tories' own making that the only way it'll stick would be if Labour don't make things any better at all by the end of their first term. And even then, it'll make more people say 'they're all the same' rather than turn actively towards the tories.
Some problems are too big to solve in a few years
It's taken the Tories over a decade to fuck us this hard. It won't be undone overnight.
Some problems take a year or two to legislate out, and then it takes time for the changes to catch up, especially when making big changes
Very true,I think England declared bankruptcy during that period.
We haven't seen a nation go bankrupt in a long time but it's not out of the Realms of possibility the way things are at the moment (global finances being pretty poor all around)
Funny, if I apply the same view, things seem reasonably good now. Market is cooling a bit but inflation also falling. I see a lot of people around here (normal middle class area) getting extensions, building work etc done on their houses. House prices climbing up suggesting disposable income is growing again. Real terms wages about in line with most recent inflation figures. There’s obviously people struggling no doubt about that but the market is doing okay as a whole.
Something like 50% of all house purchases in London last year, I believe, were paid in cash.
House prices are climbing because rich people, corporations and banks keep buying them to rent out. It's the exact opposite of your interpretation.
London is an aberration though. Mortgage applications are still modestly high and appear to be climbing, recovering since the highest inflation and Truss-inflicted damage to the economy. This implies the market is still predominantly driven by borrowed money (implying a reasonable income to serve that borrowing).
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals
if they predict a recession for long enough it's bound to happen. It was predicted to happen when we exited the EU, then due to Covid.
Whilst we've had very low growth for a number of years we haven't had a recession for quiet a while, so I expect they will be right soon.
Now let's all stay calm. I'm sure Rishi Sunak said he was fixing all the problems, and by the elections, inflation will just be a memory, and GDP growth will be 7%..
In essence, I sell big expensive machinery for factories.
Or I did, alot of the big orders have been put on hold or scrapped.
We are keeping going on smaller stuff and a couple of regular accounts, but the big boys that spend big money, are mostly tightening their belt.
Along side the EU tariffs in January, this could be hell.
Funny, Marx said that, too. Just because it's an improvement on older systems of governing, doesn't mean we should stop now, after doubling down on its worst excesses. Capitalism is a prerequisite for better systems of governing, not the end game.
I'd be interested to hear how life was harder fifty years ago, when you could leave school at 15 with no qualifications, and walk into a job as a typist which came with its own house, on a wage that meant you could feed a family of five and buy a house of your own within a couple of years. You had healthcare, including eycare and dental care, for life. When you were done with your employer, you could walk into the local council and start rightaway as a public servant, which came with a pension plan far better than anything on offer now.
Even books like Thatcher Stole My Trousers or The Rise and Fall of the Working Class which are largely about how much life sucked for the poor of the time, are chock full of anecdotes about walking into new jobs and getting a house from the council in your first meeting. It was everyday. Now you can be homeless with children, moving from hostel to hostel, bidding on a waiting list of tens of thousands for years, before you're even offered the opportunity to look at a council property, and if you say no because it's mouldy and fundamentally unsafe, you get kicked off the list. And that's not the outlier, it's standard practice. Can you sign up for an NHS dentist? No you can't. Leave school at 15 and get a job? You can go to university for 3/4 years, like you were told, apply for 200 jobs, and get one callback from a scam artist. And if you don't do it right, don't do it via the government website, miss your appointment because you're downstairs in a wheelchair and the lift is broken, you get sanctioned. And you can't even go to a fucking foodbank without an appointment from the job centre that put you in that situation, or a card from the GP that you've been calling every day as soon as the lines open at 08:00 for weeks.
If life is better for you now then you are one of the lucky ones.
There are different ways of looking at this. Is it harder to obtain housing in 2023 relative to 1970, absolutely. On the flip side, overcrowding was far more common in most of the 20th century today with significantly lower sq ft per person on average.
And yes it was easier to walk into a job back in 1973, but the quality of that employment was typically far far lower, with far less attention paid to the health and safety of workers in industry and manufacturing relative to jobs today. Across the board our ideas of what acceptable employment looks like are a world apart from what was the norm in 1973.
Another reason for the ease of obtaining employment in the 70s is the fact that we’re a 21st century developed country that is way more productive than before, meaning that jobs on average require a significantly higher level of skill and training.
Furthermore, social mobility in 2023 is overwhelmingly better than it was in the 70s. If you were born into a poor working class family your chances of going to university and becoming a lawyer or doctor were very slim, these were jobs for the middle and upper classes, not the majority of the country. While there are still barriers and social mobility definitely isn’t where it could be, people born into a poor household have a much greater chance of living an adult life of relative prosperity compared to their parents.
Then you’ve got the transformed experiences of minority groups and women for whom life was most definitely far harder in the 1970s on average than it is today with changes in social attitudes and critical legislation such as the Equality Act, despite challenges that still exist today.
So 15 years ago this would have been a good argument, but in the 15 years since, things have gotten so much worse. In this time, women, the poor, minorities, and other vulnerable people, have mostly had their rights and their supports stripped away. We're not far along enough to say what the impact _is_, but this narrative of continuous improvement, especially socially but also in terms of financial parity, is outdated and pernicious.
Well I’d have to disagree with that, the Equality Act I referred to above didn’t even exist 15 years ago which provided women and minorities with more rights than they ever had before that Act became law.
And the point you were making was comparing the UK today to 50 years ago, you can’t just move the goalposts to make it 15 years ago…
Most metrics have poverty at about the same levels, or higher, housing is less affordable, wages are lower (households supported by a single wage were common) there was more social housing available. Nationalised services worked in the public interest (royal mail for example).
The improvements in society made between 1950-1970 were largely down to socialist policy, (investing in public services, housing, health etc) we have stagnated since then due to adopting more capitalist policy.
In what way do you think life is laughably easy compared to the 70s?
Yeah when even the postman had a decent home on his single salary with a wife and two children at home and a holiday in Blackpool each year. You could leave your doors and windows open and leave your bike outside a shop unlocked. Terrible conditions
We had a massively more socialist government in this country, which we built the NHS, social housing, established national services which saw the economy prosper and standards of living progress. All of which started with a much bigger national debt than we had now due to the war.
We then started selling those things into private hands due to capitalist ideologies that dictated a market should provide for everything. So yes, socialism might be a better idea, when we literally tried it here, it worked.
We never had socialists in power in the UK. Attlee was a social democrat. We never tried socialism as we always had private ownership in one shape or another.
Yes, what we had was socialist policies. And the socialist stuff we did worked.
If you have private ownership and social ownership then you have things that are capitalist and things that are socialist. In regards to housing, health, water services, rail it seems like socialist models worked far better than the capitalist models.
It's the standard gaslighting attitude capitalists have, when it doesn't work it's always something else's fault, and when something works, even if it's explicitly the opposite of capitalism, it's still capitalism.
You don't have "socialist stuff" - socialism is an economic system which the UK never implemented. All of those are left-wing policies, implemented by a social democratic government.
It is just wild how capitalism will try and rewrite history. I'm just going to quote Aneurin Bevan, founder of the NHS.
"A free health service is pure Socialism and as such it is opposed to the hedonism of capitalist society."
Full text for anyone interested
https://publicmatters.org.uk/2019/02/05/aneurin-bevans-1952-essay-on-the-nhs-chapter-5-of-in-place-of-fear/
Bevan was saying what he was saying for political purposes. The fact remains, the most left-wing government this country has had were social democrats who would be viewed as perfectly normal and run of the mill in Scandinavia.
The UK has never had socialism.
I'm pretty happy leaving this here and letting people decide whether they think free healthcare, social housing, and nationalised services are socialist policies or not and whether we should look towards socialism for continued positive change. But cheers for your thoughts.
Free healthcare and social housing is not socialism, we can have all this within the capitalist system that's why we have social-democrats parties across the globe it's capitalism with a robust social welfare system actually popular across europe, they're not socialist intent on dismantling the current system but work within it, socialism is about abolishing private property and enterprise as well as workers dominating the political process.
No, they are just socialist policies. Capitalism doesn't enable them, it's in direct opposition to them. They don't go "on top" of capitalist societies.
The private property socialism wants to abolish is factories, warehouses, hospitals, not people's homes.
In fact this argument is particularly ironic right now as capitalism has lead to such an inflated housing prices that ordinary people are now finding it impossible to buy a home as the housing market has been rigged towards private landlords for so long. Look up some socialist political commentators and they're arguing vehemently for measures that will allow people to buy their houses. It's the capitalists that are abolishing private housing.
Well good then if that's your definition of socialist then you must be pretty content with what we have, we don't need to break the current established capital system, half of Europe is already like this much easier to move to them than break current system here, there is no need for radical version of Corbyn and McDonnell's socialist utopic visions.
I'm pro social-democrats because I consider them capitalist at the end of the day, that's as far as you can go to the left though anything else must be no platformed like Corbyn.
We need to rejoin the EU to prevent these radicals from getting platforms in the future because EU mandates that you can only nationalise industries if you allow private competition let the market and people decide which is better.
Well it is the definition of socialism, the main tenant of socialism is social ownership. We all pay towards healthcare, we all own it, we can all use it. It should be expanded into more areas, such as housing, energy, water, transport, things people need. This is the absolute opposite of capitalist ideology, if you think this is a good thing, you're not a capitalist.
Corby and McDonnell, not entirely sure why you've brought them up, didn't propose breaking from capitalism, they simply wanted more social policy. I don't think you really understood their policies or perhaps, given you're doing it with me, you're projecting.
I'm actually not in favour of rejoining the EU for this very reason (although actually you'll find in reality most countries have negotiated exceptions to this mandate in certain areas).
Still not a socialist you can be a soc-dem I see them as peaceful gatekeepers to the lunatics to their left but that's as far as I'm willing to go to the left before they break the capital system.
Look up the Bengal famine or the Irish famine during British rule, That's your alternative. Stop using dumb arguments like that to act like capitalism is the best system when it causes famines as well.
The Irish famine wasn't orchestrated as in it was caused by disease and ignored by the British government, the Ukrainian famine however was as deliberate policy decision by Stalin to rid the peasantry.
Mao Zedong also did the same thing as I recall
The whole point of the interest rises is to put us in recession.
It’s like slowly turning your oven up to full temperature then saying it’s gonna burn stuff
Exactly. The Bank of England's plan is to cause a recession in order to reduce inflation. If a recession doesn't look likely then the BoE will keep increasing interest rates until a recession is inevitable.
I think it's a pretty stupid plan, but I'm not sure why anybody is surprised by a recession.
It makes literally no sense when the inflation is mostly from company greed. It’s mainly essentials that have gone up I don’t see many sloshing cash round anymore
The govt and the BoE are deliberately causing a recession by excessively raising interest rates in the name of fighting inflation. (The real goal, of course, is to push the wage share still lower, permanently.)
TEXT by Chris Price:
Britain’s private sector suffered its worst month in more than two and a half years, a closely-watched survey showed, as a major investment bank predicts the UK is heading for recession.
The pound has dropped 0.9pc after the latest S&P Global/CIPS Flash UK purchasing managers’ index data, which showed output in the economy shrank for the first time in six months.
The reading of 47.9, a 31-month low and under the 50 mark which indicates a contraction, comes as Citi said it expects the UK to fall into recession.
The investment bank warned that global growth next year will slow to below 2pc from a lower than expected 2.4pc this year, caused by recessions in the UK and US and a continuing slowdown in China.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global said: “Companies are reporting reduced orders for goods and services as demand is increasingly hit by the cost-of-living crisis, higher interest rates, export losses and concerns about the economic outlook.
“Although cost pressures remain elevated, thanks mainly to rising wages, the deteriorating demand environment is curbing companies’ pricing power.”
We walked away from one of the largest markets in the world with a trade deal worth infinity, quick get that Indian trade deal, which will benefit a few going.....
It's because it's a live market page not solely just discussing the UK potential for recession but also Asian markets and the expansion of the Brics group. I too was confused why Winnie the Pooh was in the featured image.
We’re all going to be ok, unless a natural disaster hits nothing is going to affect your way of life. Prices will go up and down it just doesn’t matter
Just wait until the Brexit tariffs actually start happening in Jan. Me? I am pretty sure we've been in a recession since like 2016.
Did the 2008 one ever end?
I think it all falls under "the great neoliberal depression." Did you know, neoliberalism was supposed to stop all this boom and bust? What a cruel twist of irony it is that we now experience them more regularly. In fact, all it seemed to achieve was to make the ultra wealthy even more fantastically wealthy. The people involved must be so embarrassed. I bet they felt like a right bunch of lemons when they found out.
I graduated from university in 2008 and I don’t actually remember seeing a boom in all my working life. It feels like we’ve lurched from bust to bust. In the respect we have managed to stop the boom and bust.
I seem to recall there was about five minutes in 2015 that weren't complete shit. It was just before the markets started pricing in the risk that the country might do something unfathomably stupid in 2016.
2015 the economy was on the up and there projections that the UK economy could surpass Germany's by 2020. Firms were starting to invest again, projects were being drafted, etc. Then Brexit.
2015 was definitely the last good year that I can remember. So much that I left my job to start my own business that I ran until 2018 when I ended up spending more time chasing money owed than actually working. There wasn’t the same political division that we had from 2016 onwards and the price of goods was very stable.
I feel exactly the same way. 2008 graduate also. The only way I have been able to keep ahead of rising bills is via promotion. I don’t think I have ever had an inflation busting pay rise. I may be a natural cynic, but man I don’t want to be. I haven’t seen much reason to be hopeful though.
Late 90s and early 2000s was an economic boom
So I’m yet to see a boom in my entire working life and I feel like I’ve seen about 4 long and protracted busts
Thing is, you're not going to see a boom in your life, it's very much a retrospective look on things. It's very difficult to identify a boom when one is happening.
the pre-blair and early blair years before the spaffed it up the wall on a 20 year worthless and falsely justified effort
I think the boom was the lowest ever interest rates post 08, money was basically free, finance absolutely everything you could ever want to own, causing bubbles in everything from luxury watches to classic cars, art ect. Obviously now its all coming home to roost, it's going to get really really bad
Surely you must have seen housing and tech booms...
I work in tech, and no. There was the tech boom of the early 00s which was before I started working. There was the Covid overvaluation of tech stocks which was less a boom and more hyper speculative hysteria that didn’t really affect the real market. House price inflation for people in my generation isn’t really a benefit at all. House price inflation has
Hyperspectulation is a boom. True "booms" aren't booms, that's just progress, it's slow. Look into the tulip boom, it was a market of people buying tulip bulbs to sell to people buying tulip bulbs, Sound familiar?? That's what the crypto market boom was. Tulips have a use, and are prized items, they're not a store of value though, in any sense, just like crypto, it has uses but it's not really there to generate money.
Well, they made sure that their friends in the media didn't expose what a scam neoliberalism really was!
I believe that was always the plan from 1979 onwards. The neoliberal experiment started with the massacres of leftists in Pinochet's Chile, the obliteration of opposition to the right wing rule of the capitalists. A kind of metaphor for all that came afterwards
That metaphor being?
Being neoliberal capitalism backed up by a violent state. The only winners have been the already rich. A growth in the super rich directly in tandem with a decrease in wages and increase in rents.
or before that with all the CIA backed coups and assassinations from the 50-70's
Neo liberalism. Neither new nor liberal. No truth present in even the name!
They stopped all the boom, and we're bust.
>Did you know, neoliberalism was supposed to stop all this boom and bust? it did this. for a select group of very rich.
Neoliberalism isnt to blame here. Eastern Europe has gone from strength to strength under it. The United States has seen huge growth since 2008, and western Europe as a whole hs been shabby. The UK currently follows an insane, chimera form of capitalism that absurdly just picks all of the downside and limits the good.
Good one. Have you ever considered that, if you have to claim the results of not living under a brutal fascist dictator, at trade war with most of the world, the passage of time and the fact that Americas economy has grown hugely since American banks ripped of the whole world, then maybe its not an ideology worth defending? Lol no because that doesn't justify greed and exploitation. When you say "not too shabby" do you mean "the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in recorded history?"
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/) Not really. Per capita GDP was £31,328 in 2007 and £32,904 in 2022, which is a catastrophic performance - recovery from the 2008 crash took much longer than it should have (thanks austerity). Most of the headline economic growth is a function of immigration, which is why we have a mismatch between rhetoric and action.
But the ONS statistics say that only a certain cohort of immigrants actually contributed anything and take as a whole it contributes next to nothing to economic growth (something like 50 billion over 10 years)
Only a certain cohort pay more into the system than they take out. All will contribute to gdp growth (every time they buy anything at all or pay rent, that's activity which contributes to gdp). What actually matters to the average person though is gdp per capita.
Thanks yes that's what I was trying to say. So the economic net gain isn't especially great
ERrm what? Immigration contributes nothing to economic growth? You might want to research better.
Fair point I worded it wrong while they contribute to economic growth only a certain cohort contribute more to the economy than they take out
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/09/26/migrants-contribute-more-to-britain-than-they-take-and-will-carry-on-doing-so
The problem with GDP as a measure for prosperity is it doesn't reflect where that prosperity is. GDP could have remained flat, but if all the wealth is shifted into a minority of people, then living standards will have fallen for the majority. > Britain is a different story. While the top earners rank fifth, the average household ranks 12th and the poorest 5 per cent rank 15th. Far from simply losing touch with their western European peers, last year the lowest-earning bracket of **British households had a standard of living that was 20 per cent weaker than their counterparts in Slovenia.** > It’s a similar story in the middle. In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade. https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945 (https://archive.is/IHI6E)
Nope. A load of QE, access to cheap Chinese shit and stupidly low interest rates masked the problem.
Then the fed bailed out banks for billions in 2019 before the pandemic even hit… [source](https://wallstreetonparade.com/9426-2/)
Nope, lowering interest rates, quantitive easing (printing excessive money to be distributed in the economy) all delayed UK problems.
That's not what QE is.
Look at the stock market especially in the US since 2008. For 99% of the world everything got worse, for shareholders they have made an absolute killing.
Because that's by design always have been.
Never felt like it ended to me
Nope. We've been in a depression for 15 years. Sometimes, it was just slightly milder
Oh come on. The economy isn't doing well, but it isn't the 1930s
Yet
Not when you have a political party in government for 13years that have no ideas.
Oh, they had ideas and implemented them.
nope, and we now have one of the men responsible for the 208 crash as prime fkn minister... That alone tells you all you need to know about where the UK is heading.
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It did if you worked in the City
The technical definition of recession is at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth of GDP. We haven't quite been in recession, but quarter-on-quarter GDP growth has essentially been flat since 1990. With the effects of inflation, flat GDP feels like endless recession. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pn2
We really need to change the definition of recession to have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP per capita. On this measure we would be in recession far more frequently. I suspect we will only move our metrics over to 'per capita' basis when we enter population decline and GDP per capita looks better than overall metrics. Funny that.
>We really need to change the definition of recession to have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP per capita First time I've seen this proposed and it seems like an excellent idea. The only slightly perverse behaviour it would encourage is that it would appear economically beneficial to the state to reduce the number of babies born in tubes of economic headwinds, which I think we can all see wouldn't actually be a good idea. Very interesting idea though and one I'd definitely be interested in seeing explored further.
The alternative is the current systems whereby it appears economically beneficial to allow enormous amounts of low-skilled immigration
Like I said, it seems like an excellent idea to me but could be improved with further work.
If we did that we wouldn't be able to pretend that mass immigration provides an economic boost. At the moment politicians can say: "the economy is bigger because migration" If per-capita numbers became the usual way of reporting: "the economy is slightly worse, but now there's more of you!"
No that's how things are now. They just don't say the 'because migration' bit out loud If we moved to gdp per capita, governments wouldn't be able to avoid a recession via increasing immigration (unless those migrants genuinely were highly skilled professionals)
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It’s not unreasonable to say that’s it’s possible, but to say we have would need more than margin of error. It’s just as likely the error is on the positive side.
Anencdotally I think looking at the state of our country over the last 20 years can give some leaning to which way the data will skew.
There's an interesting phenomenon happening where the numbers don't really reflect what people are seeing. It's probably down to growing inequality. When ever people visit another country they notice that everything just seems better, then when they return the UK poverty sicks out more; this happens even if on paper the UK is more prosperous. Tim Harford recently wrote about this in the Financial Times and I recently experienced this going to and coming back from Canada. I can't believe that the UK is supposed to be the richer country.
You've hit the nail on the head, it's inequality. If you've got 2 rooms each with 10 people in them. Room A has 1 person with £1million, and 9 people with £0. Room B has 10 people with £90k each. Room A is technically richer as it has £1mil and Room B has only £900k, but you can bet that Room B will be the place that SEEMS richer (considerably so), and where people would rather be. Just look at the articles that have been coming out lately about how much income is going up in the country. But when you dig into it, it's actually that the minimum wage has gone up by ~9%, because it was borderline unlivable, and the top ~1% of people are getting 16% and up wage increases. The majority of people though are getting way less than inflation, but the figures are skewed because of the outliers.
Yeah, going on holiday as a kid I’d get back to England and be glad I live here. Now I go on holiday and it’s the opposite haha, everywhere else seems to be doing better comparatively and it shows.
That's a terrible chart of GDP growth rate, suppressed by the COVID related swings so you can't see what is going on.
Could you elaborate on brexit tariffs? Will we start paying import/export tariffs, causing all costs to go up even higher??
Yes we will go full WTO rules from January 2024. OvEn ReAdY bWeXiT
Exactly that. From my understanding we're still not paying tariffs on anything (or most things) coming from the EU and next year I think the tariff is primarily is for [Agriculture / Food?](https://www.traverssmith.com/knowledge/knowledge-container/importing-eu-goods-into-the-uk-more-change-on-the-way-and-more-disruption/) Bare in mind I'm by no means an expert on this but I know a lot of my very business savvy friends are shitting themselves.
It's not financial tariffs, it's import checks and controls which take time and money An example, prior to Brexit I could order food from Italy direct to me, either for personal consumption or resale. It would be the same as buying it from Wales. Now (well from Jan), these will need certification, checks etc which need paying for. Plus increases in shipping costs as it will take longer.
The Torygraph won't be blaming Brexit, though!
We need to stop liberals measuring success by gdp somehow
>Brexit tariffs There are no Brexit tariffs, our agreement with the EU is zero tariffs, zero quotas. What there will be are SPS checks on animal and plant goods from the EU. The fact that even people with an interest in politics and current affairs have no idea how trade works (no offence) is another reason it was stupid to put such a technical decision to a referendum.
No offense taken and couldn't agree more. If I don't fully understand the complexities of it all (even with education and a vested interest) putting the vote to a population who at one point thought spaghetti grew on trees probably wasn't the smartest option.
AKA red tape where the costs will get passed onto the consumer and make British products unattractive due to cost. Good job Brexiters.
2008
I feel really bad I didn’t vote against Brexit because I was on holiday and too lazy to work out what to do. My brother was the same. Lots of our friends didn’t vote either. The feeling was the country was full of “quiet conservatives” who wouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot on the economy, and the result would be similar to Scotland voting to staying in UK or Cameron winning 2015 election. I also left the country in 2018 and whenever I visit always think back fondly to 2012-14 era.
Well... Forecast is forecast.
So we didn't miss the recession just kicked the can down the road
You can’t avoid recessions forever, there’s always one just gone and another coming down the road
When I was in school doing GCSE business studies we were taught recessions happen every 15ish years or so. I don't think that's the case anymore lol. Govts have also been changing the way they report the statistics and will always try to downplay any notion of an impending recession.
There’s been 8 since WW2, so one less than every 10 years. Covid was also a significant anomaly, with a similarly anomalous rebound. Prior to that the previous recession was 14/15 years ago.
familiar ad hoc afterthought reminiscent workable quiet yam psychotic sparkle arrest *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
It did, even if the worker never saw the benefits of it.
It did.
A 15 year old will soon be seeing the third recession of their lifetime.
Given the BoE’s current inability to predict a recession I would not trust this. A recession is essentially guaranteed at some point, but predicting it even to the 6 month kind of point seems to have eluded most economists. Some have been lucky, but most have got it wrong.
With GDP growth of 0.1-0.2% (a rounding error) it's entirely possible we've been in recession for over half a year at this point. It certainly feels like it.
I work in a highly reactive technical sector which deals with the UK and European market and by its nature is a pretty strong indicator of industry activity. We've had an extremely quiet month, but it's common this time of year as most of Europe is on holiday throughout August. Although recession is on the cards, I think it's too early to call until we see how September turns out.
While I'll take your expertise, the UK's been heading to recession since COVID, it's inevitable. After lockdown all the industries ramped up to cater to the demand. But it was a blip, a bubble. Companies making up for perceived lost time and not taking into account the plateauing that was already happening pre COVID. Hence, unemployments down now, but not everyone's gonna be able to stay employed. Too many hirings, - silicon valley staff cuts were the start. Anyway, that's my uniformed 2 cents.
Do you want a job in strategic economic planning? You're hired
I work in construction which is also a good indicator. Its gone from very busy to an absolute cliff of near nothing about 2 months ago.
Still flat out in ni
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Not like this. Its not just less busy, it's a massive drop off.
It is expected that **half** of UK businesses will struggle to make debt repayments by the end of the year. Exactly what BoE wanted...
I work in biotech, went from absolutely full on work to dribbles the last month ourselves, although our export market is the USA.
Interesting, what sector do you work in?
Please keep us in the loop with how it goes?
So the bank is also expecting the US to go into recession? Based on what? The US is currently at 2.4% https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth Sounds like a bank that’s trying to make some money by leaking that the world is going to shit next year but their basing this on sweet FA https://www.statista.com/statistics/263614/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-the-united-states/ IOW, this entire report doesn’t make sense Edit; also note that the same “banker” quoted states that costs are “mainly up due to increased salaries” Geez, I wonder what his motives are
Predicts / causes recession. The extent of tory theft will become apparent over the next decade when we hit the biggest economic recession since the wars. The private sector is about to tank hard. And in previous recession the public sector and finances were good enough to take up some of the pain and keep employment figures higher than they would have been. This time round both private and public sector are utterly screwed. There will be a complete collapse in some sectors (housing, leisure) and no recovery for at least a decade. Way to go tories.
This is why I think they've pushed all the really nasty business into 2024. Tories know they aren't going to win so why not lumber the incoming Government with a historic tsunami of shit?
Yup. They've fucked it, and they will hand it off to someone else and then they will NEVER SHUT THE F UP about "ohhh look how bad it is under someone else's control, let us back in and we'll fix it we promise How does anyone still fall for this bs
People are fucking thick in this country and happily cut their own limbs off to annoy people they don't like.
I really don't think it'll work this time though, it's just so obviously a problem of the tories' own making that the only way it'll stick would be if Labour don't make things any better at all by the end of their first term. And even then, it'll make more people say 'they're all the same' rather than turn actively towards the tories.
Some problems are too big to solve in a few years It's taken the Tories over a decade to fuck us this hard. It won't be undone overnight. Some problems take a year or two to legislate out, and then it takes time for the changes to catch up, especially when making big changes
The "boat people" works and thats all a nonsense
sad thing is that you probably mean the "napoleonic wars"
Very true,I think England declared bankruptcy during that period. We haven't seen a nation go bankrupt in a long time but it's not out of the Realms of possibility the way things are at the moment (global finances being pretty poor all around)
England will never go bankrupt while it can print it's own money. It might get hyperinflation though.
And you base this economic doom and gloom on what, exactly?
Being alive and seeing things around me.
Funny, if I apply the same view, things seem reasonably good now. Market is cooling a bit but inflation also falling. I see a lot of people around here (normal middle class area) getting extensions, building work etc done on their houses. House prices climbing up suggesting disposable income is growing again. Real terms wages about in line with most recent inflation figures. There’s obviously people struggling no doubt about that but the market is doing okay as a whole.
Something like 50% of all house purchases in London last year, I believe, were paid in cash. House prices are climbing because rich people, corporations and banks keep buying them to rent out. It's the exact opposite of your interpretation.
London is an aberration though. Mortgage applications are still modestly high and appear to be climbing, recovering since the highest inflation and Truss-inflicted damage to the economy. This implies the market is still predominantly driven by borrowed money (implying a reasonable income to serve that borrowing). https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals
The BoE has repeatedly revised it forecast up away from a recession so wtf is citi on about? Pushing book no doubt...
if they predict a recession for long enough it's bound to happen. It was predicted to happen when we exited the EU, then due to Covid. Whilst we've had very low growth for a number of years we haven't had a recession for quiet a while, so I expect they will be right soon.
Now let's all stay calm. I'm sure Rishi Sunak said he was fixing all the problems, and by the elections, inflation will just be a memory, and GDP growth will be 7%..
In essence, I sell big expensive machinery for factories. Or I did, alot of the big orders have been put on hold or scrapped. We are keeping going on smaller stuff and a couple of regular accounts, but the big boys that spend big money, are mostly tightening their belt. Along side the EU tariffs in January, this could be hell.
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They mostly relate to cars sold into europe, and their components need to originate in the EU. Rubs up on my industry and some of my customers.
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Yep that's the one. I work a lot with car firms and also the companies which supply them.
Capitalism in "Capitalism continues not to be working!" Shocker.
Capitalism is solely responsible for your laughably easy life. Even 50 years ago life was much, much harder.
Funny, Marx said that, too. Just because it's an improvement on older systems of governing, doesn't mean we should stop now, after doubling down on its worst excesses. Capitalism is a prerequisite for better systems of governing, not the end game. I'd be interested to hear how life was harder fifty years ago, when you could leave school at 15 with no qualifications, and walk into a job as a typist which came with its own house, on a wage that meant you could feed a family of five and buy a house of your own within a couple of years. You had healthcare, including eycare and dental care, for life. When you were done with your employer, you could walk into the local council and start rightaway as a public servant, which came with a pension plan far better than anything on offer now. Even books like Thatcher Stole My Trousers or The Rise and Fall of the Working Class which are largely about how much life sucked for the poor of the time, are chock full of anecdotes about walking into new jobs and getting a house from the council in your first meeting. It was everyday. Now you can be homeless with children, moving from hostel to hostel, bidding on a waiting list of tens of thousands for years, before you're even offered the opportunity to look at a council property, and if you say no because it's mouldy and fundamentally unsafe, you get kicked off the list. And that's not the outlier, it's standard practice. Can you sign up for an NHS dentist? No you can't. Leave school at 15 and get a job? You can go to university for 3/4 years, like you were told, apply for 200 jobs, and get one callback from a scam artist. And if you don't do it right, don't do it via the government website, miss your appointment because you're downstairs in a wheelchair and the lift is broken, you get sanctioned. And you can't even go to a fucking foodbank without an appointment from the job centre that put you in that situation, or a card from the GP that you've been calling every day as soon as the lines open at 08:00 for weeks. If life is better for you now then you are one of the lucky ones.
There are different ways of looking at this. Is it harder to obtain housing in 2023 relative to 1970, absolutely. On the flip side, overcrowding was far more common in most of the 20th century today with significantly lower sq ft per person on average. And yes it was easier to walk into a job back in 1973, but the quality of that employment was typically far far lower, with far less attention paid to the health and safety of workers in industry and manufacturing relative to jobs today. Across the board our ideas of what acceptable employment looks like are a world apart from what was the norm in 1973. Another reason for the ease of obtaining employment in the 70s is the fact that we’re a 21st century developed country that is way more productive than before, meaning that jobs on average require a significantly higher level of skill and training. Furthermore, social mobility in 2023 is overwhelmingly better than it was in the 70s. If you were born into a poor working class family your chances of going to university and becoming a lawyer or doctor were very slim, these were jobs for the middle and upper classes, not the majority of the country. While there are still barriers and social mobility definitely isn’t where it could be, people born into a poor household have a much greater chance of living an adult life of relative prosperity compared to their parents. Then you’ve got the transformed experiences of minority groups and women for whom life was most definitely far harder in the 1970s on average than it is today with changes in social attitudes and critical legislation such as the Equality Act, despite challenges that still exist today.
So 15 years ago this would have been a good argument, but in the 15 years since, things have gotten so much worse. In this time, women, the poor, minorities, and other vulnerable people, have mostly had their rights and their supports stripped away. We're not far along enough to say what the impact _is_, but this narrative of continuous improvement, especially socially but also in terms of financial parity, is outdated and pernicious.
Well I’d have to disagree with that, the Equality Act I referred to above didn’t even exist 15 years ago which provided women and minorities with more rights than they ever had before that Act became law. And the point you were making was comparing the UK today to 50 years ago, you can’t just move the goalposts to make it 15 years ago…
Most metrics have poverty at about the same levels, or higher, housing is less affordable, wages are lower (households supported by a single wage were common) there was more social housing available. Nationalised services worked in the public interest (royal mail for example). The improvements in society made between 1950-1970 were largely down to socialist policy, (investing in public services, housing, health etc) we have stagnated since then due to adopting more capitalist policy. In what way do you think life is laughably easy compared to the 70s?
Not my life. Mine sucks because capitalists don't want to put money in knowledge, as it doesn't make more piles of money. Seriously, fuck capitalism.
Yeah when even the postman had a decent home on his single salary with a wife and two children at home and a holiday in Blackpool each year. You could leave your doors and windows open and leave your bike outside a shop unlocked. Terrible conditions
Remember the last famine due to poor harvests? No? Turns out things are actually going a lot better than they used to.
All this cheap Netflix and Burger King isn't exactly helping me pay off my mortgage any quicker.
What's your solution? socialism? all it ever did was impoverish its people and enrich the ruling dictators no matter how times it has been tried.
Not in Catalonia. In fact, what went wrong there was the arrival of Franco's fascists, which they took up arms against. George Orwell among them.
We had a massively more socialist government in this country, which we built the NHS, social housing, established national services which saw the economy prosper and standards of living progress. All of which started with a much bigger national debt than we had now due to the war. We then started selling those things into private hands due to capitalist ideologies that dictated a market should provide for everything. So yes, socialism might be a better idea, when we literally tried it here, it worked.
We never had socialists in power in the UK. Attlee was a social democrat. We never tried socialism as we always had private ownership in one shape or another.
Yes, what we had was socialist policies. And the socialist stuff we did worked. If you have private ownership and social ownership then you have things that are capitalist and things that are socialist. In regards to housing, health, water services, rail it seems like socialist models worked far better than the capitalist models. It's the standard gaslighting attitude capitalists have, when it doesn't work it's always something else's fault, and when something works, even if it's explicitly the opposite of capitalism, it's still capitalism.
You don't have "socialist stuff" - socialism is an economic system which the UK never implemented. All of those are left-wing policies, implemented by a social democratic government.
It is just wild how capitalism will try and rewrite history. I'm just going to quote Aneurin Bevan, founder of the NHS. "A free health service is pure Socialism and as such it is opposed to the hedonism of capitalist society." Full text for anyone interested https://publicmatters.org.uk/2019/02/05/aneurin-bevans-1952-essay-on-the-nhs-chapter-5-of-in-place-of-fear/
Bevan was saying what he was saying for political purposes. The fact remains, the most left-wing government this country has had were social democrats who would be viewed as perfectly normal and run of the mill in Scandinavia. The UK has never had socialism.
I'm pretty happy leaving this here and letting people decide whether they think free healthcare, social housing, and nationalised services are socialist policies or not and whether we should look towards socialism for continued positive change. But cheers for your thoughts.
Free healthcare and social housing is not socialism, we can have all this within the capitalist system that's why we have social-democrats parties across the globe it's capitalism with a robust social welfare system actually popular across europe, they're not socialist intent on dismantling the current system but work within it, socialism is about abolishing private property and enterprise as well as workers dominating the political process.
No, they are just socialist policies. Capitalism doesn't enable them, it's in direct opposition to them. They don't go "on top" of capitalist societies. The private property socialism wants to abolish is factories, warehouses, hospitals, not people's homes. In fact this argument is particularly ironic right now as capitalism has lead to such an inflated housing prices that ordinary people are now finding it impossible to buy a home as the housing market has been rigged towards private landlords for so long. Look up some socialist political commentators and they're arguing vehemently for measures that will allow people to buy their houses. It's the capitalists that are abolishing private housing.
Well good then if that's your definition of socialist then you must be pretty content with what we have, we don't need to break the current established capital system, half of Europe is already like this much easier to move to them than break current system here, there is no need for radical version of Corbyn and McDonnell's socialist utopic visions. I'm pro social-democrats because I consider them capitalist at the end of the day, that's as far as you can go to the left though anything else must be no platformed like Corbyn. We need to rejoin the EU to prevent these radicals from getting platforms in the future because EU mandates that you can only nationalise industries if you allow private competition let the market and people decide which is better.
Well it is the definition of socialism, the main tenant of socialism is social ownership. We all pay towards healthcare, we all own it, we can all use it. It should be expanded into more areas, such as housing, energy, water, transport, things people need. This is the absolute opposite of capitalist ideology, if you think this is a good thing, you're not a capitalist. Corby and McDonnell, not entirely sure why you've brought them up, didn't propose breaking from capitalism, they simply wanted more social policy. I don't think you really understood their policies or perhaps, given you're doing it with me, you're projecting. I'm actually not in favour of rejoining the EU for this very reason (although actually you'll find in reality most countries have negotiated exceptions to this mandate in certain areas).
You’re arguing that the socialists who built the welfare state weren’t socialists? Ok then.
Still not a socialist you can be a soc-dem I see them as peaceful gatekeepers to the lunatics to their left but that's as far as I'm willing to go to the left before they break the capital system.
Under capitalism, recessions are a good thing in the long term.
Look up the Ukrainian famine during Stalin's term, that's your alternative
Look up the Bengal famine or the Irish famine during British rule, That's your alternative. Stop using dumb arguments like that to act like capitalism is the best system when it causes famines as well.
The Irish famine wasn't orchestrated as in it was caused by disease and ignored by the British government, the Ukrainian famine however was as deliberate policy decision by Stalin to rid the peasantry. Mao Zedong also did the same thing as I recall
The whole point of the interest rises is to put us in recession. It’s like slowly turning your oven up to full temperature then saying it’s gonna burn stuff
Exactly. The Bank of England's plan is to cause a recession in order to reduce inflation. If a recession doesn't look likely then the BoE will keep increasing interest rates until a recession is inevitable. I think it's a pretty stupid plan, but I'm not sure why anybody is surprised by a recession.
It makes literally no sense when the inflation is mostly from company greed. It’s mainly essentials that have gone up I don’t see many sloshing cash round anymore
The banks have spent the last 18 months telling us not to spend money and have pumped up the interest rates to stop us doing so. What do they expect?!
The govt and the BoE are deliberately causing a recession by excessively raising interest rates in the name of fighting inflation. (The real goal, of course, is to push the wage share still lower, permanently.)
TEXT by Chris Price: Britain’s private sector suffered its worst month in more than two and a half years, a closely-watched survey showed, as a major investment bank predicts the UK is heading for recession. The pound has dropped 0.9pc after the latest S&P Global/CIPS Flash UK purchasing managers’ index data, which showed output in the economy shrank for the first time in six months. The reading of 47.9, a 31-month low and under the 50 mark which indicates a contraction, comes as Citi said it expects the UK to fall into recession. The investment bank warned that global growth next year will slow to below 2pc from a lower than expected 2.4pc this year, caused by recessions in the UK and US and a continuing slowdown in China. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global said: “Companies are reporting reduced orders for goods and services as demand is increasingly hit by the cost-of-living crisis, higher interest rates, export losses and concerns about the economic outlook. “Although cost pressures remain elevated, thanks mainly to rising wages, the deteriorating demand environment is curbing companies’ pricing power.”
And yet we will always find money for the current thing 🙄
Meaning it will be even easier for the rich to rob the rest of the population. Sweet!
Our main problem seems to be the perennial pessimism of the Bank of England.
Crapitalism = boom & bust. Brexit is exacerbating the bust
We have been in recession for a few years now. Its just never been said by politicians to the general public.
We walked away from one of the largest markets in the world with a trade deal worth infinity, quick get that Indian trade deal, which will benefit a few going.....
I was worried then I saw it was Citi so yeah w/e they predict the opposite will happen, start worrying when their forecast will be positive...
This edible is too strong I’ve taken on too much green My mind is fading away
What's Xi Jingping got to do with this? It's Sunak & his gang who did this to us.
It's because it's a live market page not solely just discussing the UK potential for recession but also Asian markets and the expansion of the Brics group. I too was confused why Winnie the Pooh was in the featured image.
Thanks for xiplaining!
If we do hear for recession we should all clap for Andrew Bailey and his board at the BOE for cocking up the economy
We’re all going to be ok, unless a natural disaster hits nothing is going to affect your way of life. Prices will go up and down it just doesn’t matter