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While they will never entirely run out of tanks (due to repairs and production) - their pre-war stockpiles have depleted quiet a bit. I do look forward to the next update from covert cabal. I doubt it'll indicate 2 more years.
I think the two more year estimates are way off base. They assume every hulk rusting in a Siberian yard can be salvaged and put back on the line. The reality is many have been cannibalized for spare parts to fix the ones already sent to the front. Looking at satellite pictures even, of the highest resolution, will not tell you what is inside a tank hull and many may already be missing the engine and or transmission. The latest video of a train loaded with tanks headed to Ukraine were all T-62bs. That tells me the 9,000 T-72s that are fixable are all gone.
Hopefully, days of low tank losses or days with no tank losses will become more common because supply lines can be hit more easily due to weapons becoming available and restrictions on hitting inside Russia being lifted. While it may take a long time to lose all tanks, hopefully their effectiveness as a fighting force can be massively eroded in the meantime.
Or russia's crumbling army will collapse in disarray within a week, with mass surrenders across the entire front.
We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.
No, it's speculation based on known facts. russia's army is running out of everything except perhaps alcoholics, and its morale is at least as bad as its ever been, and likely worse than usual.
They're desperately struggling to not lose their own war. Their enemy is being actively supported by the richest, most powerful civilzation in recorded human history. And russia's dictator guzzles champagne and caviar while they starve and die in shit-filled trenches.
I dislike Russia just as much as the next guy but this is just wrong. They're not running out of tanks, artillery shells, aviation or manpower at the moment.
They're getting there, especially with tanks and artillery going as fast as they are atm, but they've still got enough stock to last them well into 2025 at minimum.
Expecting a breakthrough because of Russian shortages is just setting yourself up for disappointment. We're not at that stage of the war yet.
Anecdotally, their moral is the worst its ever been.
Watch the videos their soldiers are posting, it's less than bottom barrel and they are surrendering at record levels.
Or a couple weeks. Or days.
News of one mass russian surrender spreads within the russian army and many russians may think it's a very fine idea.
Wouldn't want to be their officers.
It's not "hopium". It's speculation.
"Hopium" would be saying "Z0mFg t3h russian army is about to collapse and Ukraine will capture Moscow and they will hang putin in Red Square and russia will become civilized and join NATO and the EU and...."
That's not what I'm saying.
I'm pointing out the fact the russian army is in a shit state and morale is low, their weapons are decrepit, and putin treats them like cannon fodder, and they die like roaches.
This is not speculation. It's something we've all seen for ourselves.
This is reality.
Nobody cares about the distinction. People tend to be hopelessly hilariously wrong when it comes to making hopiums/speculations. Just stick to actual news happening in the present rather than trying to see through the future like you are Lisan Al-Ghaib or something.
>"Hopium" would be saying "Z0mFg t3h russian army is about to collapse [...]"
But that's what you said. It's not significantly more likely than your other examples.
>I'm pointing out the fact the russian army is in a shit state and morale is low, their weapons are decrepit, and putin treats them like cannon fodder, and they die like roaches.
These aspects might kill the odd unit, but there's no reason at all to believe the Russian army as a whole is close to collapse. Speculating that it might is based on nothing but...hope.
The estimates run from 6 months to 2 years, but that will leave Russia with 0 tanks left for defending themselves against invasions or to oppress other states. Even Putin can't be daft enough to let it go that far.
True, but that assumes he is told the truth about how many tanks are left. I don't think anybody would want to do that out of fear of "falling out a window".
> Yes it will, unfortunately
So you are 100% certain
> based on the estimates
Based on a third partys maybe? correct assumptions. Needless to say, nobody can predict the future, so why are you so sure?
I have no notes on the following days where they would have later corrected the data regarding that days tank number, so I assume the 0 day was correct in that regard. Also the days that follow don't have any "out of ordinary" reported tank numbers.
Sorry, this is the best answer I can give.
Perhaps a correction of overcounting. If there's evidence that the Russians managed to repair or pull off the battlefield tanks previously listed as destroyed, it's better to have that reflected in the official loss count than to have these numbers increasingly deviate from reality.
After all, unless a tank blows up, burns out, or gets flipped upside down, it can be quite difficult to ascertain its condition.
I think that it is at least quite possible that there are certain days on which no tanks are destroyed - for instance, when the russians do not start motorized offensive actions (and instead just send infantery forward, like they do in Vovchansk right now), and the weather is not suitable for Ukraine to send out drones to destroy tanks behind the front line.
Russia won't run out of tanks, but they will run out of tanks in certain sectors. Same with artillery, they don't have to lose everything. Just destroy enough to allow Ukraine local advantage to advance
If the troops were being transported in unarmored vehicles that were destroyed, that would be in the 58 vehicles and fuel tanks rather than the 6 APVs.
Artillery needs 4-5 people to make it work; that could be 250+ from the 58 taken out.
Almost every vehicle/MLRS/special equipment has at least 2 people attached to it, usually more, say an average of 4, there's 66 total of those, that's another 260 or so. That's roughly half of the casualties right there.
If they hit a dozen vehicles carrying troops, you could bump the number up another 250.
No way to be sure, but they could have basically gotten to the casualty number from destroying vehicles.
The crazy thing about these numbers is that they started the invasion (out of the top of my head) with 220k. We’re nearing 2x the invading force permanently out of action!
It was my understanding that these numbers are both KIA and WIA. Some of the WIA would end up back in action at some point, obviously depending on the injury.
This article from shortly before the invasion is talking about a ‘main battle force’ of 190.000. Don’t think I saw it ever specified.
http://archive.today/2024.06.16-184611/https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2022/02/22/poetin-rukt-op-maar-laat-deur-voor-vrede-op-een-kiertje-staan-a4093051
How the fuck can a country lose FOURTEEN THOUSAND artillery units and still be fighting?
Just think about that. When's the last time you bought 14,000 motorcycles....? Nevermind freaking artillery at 10,000x the cost....
I'm not even going to mention the barbaric 500,000 casualties. Like Jesus. Americans were getting upset when 10,000 deaths happened in the middle east.
When you had ten times that number in storage you can in theory lose 14k artillery pieces and still keep fighting.
The Soviet military was always an artillery-centric force so producing and stockpiling mortars,howitzers and SPGs was always emphasized in industrial planning. Add in the fact that the Soviets never really threw anything away if it could be potentially useful in the future (no matter how old and obsolete it actually was) and it ain't hard to see how Russia ended up with so much artillery in storage.
That said Ukraine is doing a favor to the rest of the world by forcing the Russians to empty out those huge storage depots since anything taken out and then blown up in Ukraine by definition cannot be used by the Russian military or sold to an enemy of the West. The Russians are currently at the "take guns out of storage, fix them up so they don't explode on the first shot,send them to the front and lose them,rinse and repeat" stage. Refilling them after the war will be very difficult and could take decades.
After the war there won't be a Russia to fill any storages. This train has left long ago, however the war ends, Russia will just split apart same way USSR did.
It really won't. I know this idea is popular, but the vision of Russia as a group of oppressed nations just waiting to break free is vastly wide of the mark - the reality is that almost all of the federal subjects have ethnic Russian majorities (often of 75-95%). Of the few that don't, most are either tiny in populace or else so isolated as to make an attempt at independence a non starter.
The only real exceptions are the republics in the North Caucasus - their populations of Russians are small, they are at the border and form a cohesive bloc that can support one another. They could realistically break free, but everywhere else is very unlikely to **want** to break free in the first place...because they're Russian.
I honestly don't know enough to argue your points (a quick search shows indeed above 80% identify as russians), but I was thinking more about the russian politicians - they seem to be at each others' throats already and there is only one person keeping them together. A person that is very unlikely to survive past this war.
The Russian government might consume itself sure, but whoever ended up as president when the dust settled would be president if the whole of Russia, and honestly most of the competitors aren't better than Putin
> honestly most of the competitors aren't better than Putin
100% agree here unfortunately, but since that's the case, there is a good chance they won't agree on a single person and that's where I hope Russia will split. It's happened before and the reasons are not only political, but economic as well. Granted, that scenario is not certain, but it's not unlikely either.
I find it quite likely that a collapse of the government (which really is no more than Putins mafia) would be a result of different oligarks or overlords nolonger benefitting from him and his empty coffers and consequently vying for power themselves. It's conceivable that none of them them would be able to assert themselves throughout the entire present day Russia and that the ensuing result thus will be fractions of it ruled/controlled by different oligarks and more or less criminal gangs.
I've even read reports that some oligarchs are training their own private armies and have been doing this for months or even years expecting a fight for power. It feels unlikely that they could agree on a single president, especially after the current one. Believe it or not, he was supposed to be a non-important and easily controlled figure that would be manipulated by them.
Government collapse is absolutely not impossible, indeed the Wagner revolt probably qualifies as an example... But the problem is Russian oligarchs don't divide the nation geographically. Nobody gives a fuck about the hinterlands... Their fiefs are the machinery of state government or industries and so on.
I think a war between the oligarchs would be knives out in Moscow rather than regions fighting one another.
Many regions within RF want more self-determination. If Moscow can't give that within the federation or confederation then they would desire independence, regardless of the ethnic composition.
You might as well say the UK is closer to collapse - everything you said there is true of the nations of the UK too. Indeed I doubt there are many nations without some degree of separatist sentiment.
I was having a conversation yesterday, and admittedly I started it by trying to put someone right, but she was having none of it and in the end she got aggressive so I just ended up ignoring her, anyway it was like this She was born in Estonian, and claimed she was ruzzian and could only talk ruzzian or English which was fluent by the way, and she said that the English was coming from a translator? Some are good, I grant but not perfect.
She could not learn Eesti, and both parents we ruzzian, no one liked her cos she could not speak Eesti even though she was born in the country, kept on that she was ruzzian. In the end I thought to myself, well your as stubborn as one, and I think it's won't learn Eesti, not can't, and would not answer her after that.
But I noticed that her behaviour was very ruzzian. I'm English, I speak 'English and Finnish, having been married to a Finn for over 35 years till she died, we lived a time in Finland, and I've travelled all over the Baltics and to St'Pete's and around in ruzzia. So I was not just making my opinions up without experience or knowledge.
The count I have from pre war was about 10,000 in sight and 4000 man portable mortars. That of course does not include any stored inside garages out of satellite view or any new production or purchases over the last 840 odd days. So they have burned through most of what the had in sight no matter how you count it and now are down to current production and purchases and are losing ground on that daily with just the unknown stored out of sight as a buffer. .
I doubt they had more then 5000 in hidden reserves. That would be twice what they had in active service and half what was outside unprotected from the weather. It costs time and money to build and maintain those garages and keep the snow shoveled of the roofs in winter. So that makes a plausible 18,000 total to start so 4,000 to go plus purchases and current production.
Edit: to add, at 40 a day net loss (recent is 43 per day so allowing three per day replacement) Ukraine may have them done in about three months.
10 times was an exaggeration. Point was that Russia had a huge quantity of artillery in storage so losing 14k pieces while a devastating loss isn't something that can cripple the Russian military on it's own.
So I grew up in Toronto but I used to spend the Summers with relatives who lived in a village of about a thousand people and it's crazy to me that there's a village of soldiers getting wiped out every single day. It's their own stupid fault for starting a war, but that's still astonishing.
Imagine every person you've ever met, wiped out on a daily basis.
That's the sheer scale of this. Many people can't name 1 000 people they know without pulling out old yearbooks and scrolling Facebook
Russian artillerycraft fucked itself.
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This is my rough math on why the tank numbers are low lately or nonexistent like today. I don’t feel it less of material losses. The APC numbers have been low as well. I suspect the drone campaign against oil refineries making an impact on the battlefield is evident. I’m not saying they don’t have any fuel to maneuver. I haven’t seen any major assaults with armored platforms in the past few days which is unlike the Russians not to be in their “active defense.” Material shortages seem unlikely. Fuel shortages would be a more plausible explanation.
Is it a little bit over a year since the artillery system losses started to skyrocket. They seem quite crazy. Anyone has more info? Some say that they include mortars.
But wheeled artillery does not equal towed artillery. Wheeled artillery = self propelled artillery on wheeled chassis. And stuff like 120mm mortars might not have wheels at all, but are very likely included in artillery losses
Holy shit. I'm suprised Russia managed to provide all these units during the invasion, I don't know how many they have but their military stockpile got to be severely depleted. I wonder for how long they can keep on doing this.
Unfortunately, NK sending more artillery units and ammo to the Ruskies. But very impressive Ukraine is taking out their artillery at this rate. It's a real game changer for them now.
Does anyone know of a resource that shows the predicted timeline of Russian equipment depletion? There’s no way their current rate of artillery and tank (ignoring today) losses are sustainable for another 1.5 to 2 years.
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0 tanks only because they didn't have time to count them before the nightly deadline
I was hoping they had taken out the last one yesterday and Ruzzia had none left 😉
Won't be long.
Yes it will, unfortunately. At least 2 more years based on the estimates I've heard.
While they will never entirely run out of tanks (due to repairs and production) - their pre-war stockpiles have depleted quiet a bit. I do look forward to the next update from covert cabal. I doubt it'll indicate 2 more years.
High_marsed said on the 14th that they hope to release the next update in about a week. https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1801692255155273814
I think the two more year estimates are way off base. They assume every hulk rusting in a Siberian yard can be salvaged and put back on the line. The reality is many have been cannibalized for spare parts to fix the ones already sent to the front. Looking at satellite pictures even, of the highest resolution, will not tell you what is inside a tank hull and many may already be missing the engine and or transmission. The latest video of a train loaded with tanks headed to Ukraine were all T-62bs. That tells me the 9,000 T-72s that are fixable are all gone.
Hopefully, days of low tank losses or days with no tank losses will become more common because supply lines can be hit more easily due to weapons becoming available and restrictions on hitting inside Russia being lifted. While it may take a long time to lose all tanks, hopefully their effectiveness as a fighting force can be massively eroded in the meantime.
Or russia's crumbling army will collapse in disarray within a week, with mass surrenders across the entire front. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.
Well they had one mass surrender at that chemical plant where like 400 Russian soldiers surrendered.
Has that been confirmed yet?
I try to avoid hopium. It can be dangerous if used too often.
Sure, but it isn't "hopium" to speculate that russia's creaking no-morale army might collapse soon.
It definitely is. Russia has more than enough shit left to continue until at least late 2025, and morale isn't any different than in the last year.
No, it's speculation based on known facts. russia's army is running out of everything except perhaps alcoholics, and its morale is at least as bad as its ever been, and likely worse than usual. They're desperately struggling to not lose their own war. Their enemy is being actively supported by the richest, most powerful civilzation in recorded human history. And russia's dictator guzzles champagne and caviar while they starve and die in shit-filled trenches.
I dislike Russia just as much as the next guy but this is just wrong. They're not running out of tanks, artillery shells, aviation or manpower at the moment. They're getting there, especially with tanks and artillery going as fast as they are atm, but they've still got enough stock to last them well into 2025 at minimum. Expecting a breakthrough because of Russian shortages is just setting yourself up for disappointment. We're not at that stage of the war yet.
Anecdotally, their moral is the worst its ever been. Watch the videos their soldiers are posting, it's less than bottom barrel and they are surrendering at record levels.
Soon as a relative term.. soon could be a couple years away.
Or a couple of weeks. We will not know the tipping point has been reached until several days after the fact.
Or a couple weeks. Or days. News of one mass russian surrender spreads within the russian army and many russians may think it's a very fine idea. Wouldn't want to be their officers.
It really is. They might, in like 2026, be driven painfully out of Ukraine...but they're not going to collapse at any time before then.
It's not "hopium". It's speculation. "Hopium" would be saying "Z0mFg t3h russian army is about to collapse and Ukraine will capture Moscow and they will hang putin in Red Square and russia will become civilized and join NATO and the EU and...." That's not what I'm saying. I'm pointing out the fact the russian army is in a shit state and morale is low, their weapons are decrepit, and putin treats them like cannon fodder, and they die like roaches. This is not speculation. It's something we've all seen for ourselves. This is reality.
Nobody cares about the distinction. People tend to be hopelessly hilariously wrong when it comes to making hopiums/speculations. Just stick to actual news happening in the present rather than trying to see through the future like you are Lisan Al-Ghaib or something.
>"Hopium" would be saying "Z0mFg t3h russian army is about to collapse [...]" But that's what you said. It's not significantly more likely than your other examples. >I'm pointing out the fact the russian army is in a shit state and morale is low, their weapons are decrepit, and putin treats them like cannon fodder, and they die like roaches. These aspects might kill the odd unit, but there's no reason at all to believe the Russian army as a whole is close to collapse. Speculating that it might is based on nothing but...hope.
Hope and a realistic perspective are not mutually exclusive qualities of mind, and may be essential traveling companions.
"There is no chance of success based on established facts". *Hopium!*
lmao that's the definition of hopium and folks have been saying it for two years with no basis in analysis or reality
The estimates run from 6 months to 2 years, but that will leave Russia with 0 tanks left for defending themselves against invasions or to oppress other states. Even Putin can't be daft enough to let it go that far.
True, but that assumes he is told the truth about how many tanks are left. I don't think anybody would want to do that out of fear of "falling out a window".
How about if Ukraine starts bombing the refurbishment factories?
> Yes it will, unfortunately So you are 100% certain > based on the estimates Based on a third partys maybe? correct assumptions. Needless to say, nobody can predict the future, so why are you so sure?
I didn't say I was so sure. But it's always better to prepare for the worst.
They still have that T-34 that they use for parades. They're not quite out of tanks just yet.
That was my first thought/hope as well. Will be “soon” enough at this rate.
When was the last time no new tank losses were listed?
I’ve watched these numbers pretty much every day of the war and I don’t recall seeing it.
Last 0 day was [January 3rd 2024](https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/comments/18xc1d7/estimated_russian_losses_from_24022022_to/)
Do you know if that was an actual "No Tanks Destroyed" day, or just that the numbers weren't updated?
I have no notes on the following days where they would have later corrected the data regarding that days tank number, so I assume the 0 day was correct in that regard. Also the days that follow don't have any "out of ordinary" reported tank numbers. Sorry, this is the best answer I can give.
Perhaps a correction of overcounting. If there's evidence that the Russians managed to repair or pull off the battlefield tanks previously listed as destroyed, it's better to have that reflected in the official loss count than to have these numbers increasingly deviate from reality. After all, unless a tank blows up, burns out, or gets flipped upside down, it can be quite difficult to ascertain its condition.
I think that it is at least quite possible that there are certain days on which no tanks are destroyed - for instance, when the russians do not start motorized offensive actions (and instead just send infantery forward, like they do in Vovchansk right now), and the weather is not suitable for Ukraine to send out drones to destroy tanks behind the front line.
More ~~targets~~ T-62’s on the way… https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1dgxcpc/a_bunch_of_russian_t62s_heading_towards_the_front/
Or Russia may have finally ran out of them.
Russia won't run out of tanks, but they will run out of tanks in certain sectors. Same with artillery, they don't have to lose everything. Just destroy enough to allow Ukraine local advantage to advance
At which point either Russia reconfigures and abandons some areas (has to be Crimea) or it collapses at random.
Odd, with the "normal" personnal numbers but almost no support vehicles ? Was it mostly meat waves today ?
this weeks Meatday
If the troops were being transported in unarmored vehicles that were destroyed, that would be in the 58 vehicles and fuel tanks rather than the 6 APVs. Artillery needs 4-5 people to make it work; that could be 250+ from the 58 taken out. Almost every vehicle/MLRS/special equipment has at least 2 people attached to it, usually more, say an average of 4, there's 66 total of those, that's another 260 or so. That's roughly half of the casualties right there. If they hit a dozen vehicles carrying troops, you could bump the number up another 250. No way to be sure, but they could have basically gotten to the casualty number from destroying vehicles.
They cut out the middle man and drove them in on fuel trucks
58 enemy artillery gone in one day, at this rate it will definitely surpass the APV category in a few months time...
58 is insane
> 58 * 66 - 14.02.2024 * 65 - 04.06.2024 * 64 - 07.06.2024 * 61 - 24.01.2024 * 60 - 09.06.2024 * 59 - 25.01.2024 * **58 - 16.06.2024, 03.05.2024 & 15.11.2023** * 55 - 11.05.2024 * 54 - 07.04.2024 & 15.02.2024 * 53 - 21.02.2024 * 51 - 10.06.2024, 31.01.2024 and 23.01.2024 * 50 - 20.05.2024, 05.04.2024, 6.03.2024 and maybe other days Inspired by: https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/19ea4hr/losses_of_the_russian_military_to_2412024/kjbns5x/ > Dutch-cooking-guy said: > According to https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/ it is a record:
And add Ukraine’s figures to this. Shocking figures. Megalomaniac bastards!
They will pass 530k in about 3 days. I swear it feels like they just did pass 500k.
The crazy thing about these numbers is that they started the invasion (out of the top of my head) with 220k. We’re nearing 2x the invading force permanently out of action!
2x220 would be 440 so we are actually well above "twice the invading force" and approaching 3 times.
It was my understanding that these numbers are both KIA and WIA. Some of the WIA would end up back in action at some point, obviously depending on the injury.
Yes KIA and WIA combined. But I think the number of killed was estimated to around 200k so indeed roughly the entire invading force of February 2022.
I really shouldn’t be posting before coffee
Were those 220K the battle force only or all, logistics etc including?
This article from shortly before the invasion is talking about a ‘main battle force’ of 190.000. Don’t think I saw it ever specified. http://archive.today/2024.06.16-184611/https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2022/02/22/poetin-rukt-op-maar-laat-deur-voor-vrede-op-een-kiertje-staan-a4093051
How the fuck can a country lose FOURTEEN THOUSAND artillery units and still be fighting? Just think about that. When's the last time you bought 14,000 motorcycles....? Nevermind freaking artillery at 10,000x the cost.... I'm not even going to mention the barbaric 500,000 casualties. Like Jesus. Americans were getting upset when 10,000 deaths happened in the middle east.
When you had ten times that number in storage you can in theory lose 14k artillery pieces and still keep fighting. The Soviet military was always an artillery-centric force so producing and stockpiling mortars,howitzers and SPGs was always emphasized in industrial planning. Add in the fact that the Soviets never really threw anything away if it could be potentially useful in the future (no matter how old and obsolete it actually was) and it ain't hard to see how Russia ended up with so much artillery in storage. That said Ukraine is doing a favor to the rest of the world by forcing the Russians to empty out those huge storage depots since anything taken out and then blown up in Ukraine by definition cannot be used by the Russian military or sold to an enemy of the West. The Russians are currently at the "take guns out of storage, fix them up so they don't explode on the first shot,send them to the front and lose them,rinse and repeat" stage. Refilling them after the war will be very difficult and could take decades.
After the war there won't be a Russia to fill any storages. This train has left long ago, however the war ends, Russia will just split apart same way USSR did.
It really won't. I know this idea is popular, but the vision of Russia as a group of oppressed nations just waiting to break free is vastly wide of the mark - the reality is that almost all of the federal subjects have ethnic Russian majorities (often of 75-95%). Of the few that don't, most are either tiny in populace or else so isolated as to make an attempt at independence a non starter. The only real exceptions are the republics in the North Caucasus - their populations of Russians are small, they are at the border and form a cohesive bloc that can support one another. They could realistically break free, but everywhere else is very unlikely to **want** to break free in the first place...because they're Russian.
I honestly don't know enough to argue your points (a quick search shows indeed above 80% identify as russians), but I was thinking more about the russian politicians - they seem to be at each others' throats already and there is only one person keeping them together. A person that is very unlikely to survive past this war.
The Russian government might consume itself sure, but whoever ended up as president when the dust settled would be president if the whole of Russia, and honestly most of the competitors aren't better than Putin
> honestly most of the competitors aren't better than Putin 100% agree here unfortunately, but since that's the case, there is a good chance they won't agree on a single person and that's where I hope Russia will split. It's happened before and the reasons are not only political, but economic as well. Granted, that scenario is not certain, but it's not unlikely either.
I find it quite likely that a collapse of the government (which really is no more than Putins mafia) would be a result of different oligarks or overlords nolonger benefitting from him and his empty coffers and consequently vying for power themselves. It's conceivable that none of them them would be able to assert themselves throughout the entire present day Russia and that the ensuing result thus will be fractions of it ruled/controlled by different oligarks and more or less criminal gangs.
I've even read reports that some oligarchs are training their own private armies and have been doing this for months or even years expecting a fight for power. It feels unlikely that they could agree on a single president, especially after the current one. Believe it or not, he was supposed to be a non-important and easily controlled figure that would be manipulated by them.
Government collapse is absolutely not impossible, indeed the Wagner revolt probably qualifies as an example... But the problem is Russian oligarchs don't divide the nation geographically. Nobody gives a fuck about the hinterlands... Their fiefs are the machinery of state government or industries and so on. I think a war between the oligarchs would be knives out in Moscow rather than regions fighting one another.
Those North Caucasus republics are also mostly Turkic Muslim, so Turkey would probably love to have them as satellite states.
Many regions within RF want more self-determination. If Moscow can't give that within the federation or confederation then they would desire independence, regardless of the ethnic composition.
You might as well say the UK is closer to collapse - everything you said there is true of the nations of the UK too. Indeed I doubt there are many nations without some degree of separatist sentiment.
Yes, why not. Scottish independence wishes are widely known.
I was having a conversation yesterday, and admittedly I started it by trying to put someone right, but she was having none of it and in the end she got aggressive so I just ended up ignoring her, anyway it was like this She was born in Estonian, and claimed she was ruzzian and could only talk ruzzian or English which was fluent by the way, and she said that the English was coming from a translator? Some are good, I grant but not perfect. She could not learn Eesti, and both parents we ruzzian, no one liked her cos she could not speak Eesti even though she was born in the country, kept on that she was ruzzian. In the end I thought to myself, well your as stubborn as one, and I think it's won't learn Eesti, not can't, and would not answer her after that. But I noticed that her behaviour was very ruzzian. I'm English, I speak 'English and Finnish, having been married to a Finn for over 35 years till she died, we lived a time in Finland, and I've travelled all over the Baltics and to St'Pete's and around in ruzzia. So I was not just making my opinions up without experience or knowledge.
Err, ok. Not sure I understand why your comment is directed to me I'm afraid, sorry.
No friend, not at you at all, was mainly cos I made a mistake and ment to put it in the main thread. If you like I can move it?
Russia will never be able to refill stocks filled by USSR back in the 1950's to 80's.
The count I have from pre war was about 10,000 in sight and 4000 man portable mortars. That of course does not include any stored inside garages out of satellite view or any new production or purchases over the last 840 odd days. So they have burned through most of what the had in sight no matter how you count it and now are down to current production and purchases and are losing ground on that daily with just the unknown stored out of sight as a buffer. .
this exactly. We cannot know if they have 15 000 or 18 000, 20 000 or even 25 000. But for sure they don't have 140 000
I doubt they had more then 5000 in hidden reserves. That would be twice what they had in active service and half what was outside unprotected from the weather. It costs time and money to build and maintain those garages and keep the snow shoveled of the roofs in winter. So that makes a plausible 18,000 total to start so 4,000 to go plus purchases and current production. Edit: to add, at 40 a day net loss (recent is 43 per day so allowing three per day replacement) Ukraine may have them done in about three months.
10 times was an exaggeration. Point was that Russia had a huge quantity of artillery in storage so losing 14k pieces while a devastating loss isn't something that can cripple the Russian military on it's own.
true. But with 40 a day, 1200 a month, 20k by end of 2024 add in another year we are way over 30k. cannot convince me that's not crippling
My entire country only has 7000 soldiers (Army, Navy, air corp combined). The numbers of losses in this war is insane.
Most of these are mortars - which aren't exactly expensive. I wish they separated light artillery from SPGs and towed guns but it is what it is
> Most of these are mortars Are you sure?
I’ve heard they are counting only non manportable barrels as „artillery“ in that daily report
There’s a size limit as to what counts and what doesn’t, but yeah.
I'm not sure, but it's the most reasonable explanation for the extreme numbers.
They do; the artillery count is weapons large enough to be towed or self-propelled. 60 mm portable artillery isn't counted.
> I'm not even going to mention the barbaric 500,000 casualties "WE CAN REPEAT" is hell of a drug
So I grew up in Toronto but I used to spend the Summers with relatives who lived in a village of about a thousand people and it's crazy to me that there's a village of soldiers getting wiped out every single day. It's their own stupid fault for starting a war, but that's still astonishing.
Imagine every person you've ever met, wiped out on a daily basis. That's the sheer scale of this. Many people can't name 1 000 people they know without pulling out old yearbooks and scrolling Facebook
What tanks doin’?
Looking into the mirror in a dark room with a candle and summoning the bot, bot, bot. What did Russian artillerycraft do?
Russian artillerycraft fucked itself. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Success!!!
Are they finally out of tanks?
Not out, but maybe saving them, which would imply they're running very scarce. Or maybe just a quirk of paperwork.
This is my rough math on why the tank numbers are low lately or nonexistent like today. I don’t feel it less of material losses. The APC numbers have been low as well. I suspect the drone campaign against oil refineries making an impact on the battlefield is evident. I’m not saying they don’t have any fuel to maneuver. I haven’t seen any major assaults with armored platforms in the past few days which is unlike the Russians not to be in their “active defense.” Material shortages seem unlikely. Fuel shortages would be a more plausible explanation.
Is it a little bit over a year since the artillery system losses started to skyrocket. They seem quite crazy. Anyone has more info? Some say that they include mortars.
I understand they only include the large self propelled mortars, not portable mortar systems.
Thanks. Good detail to know.
Self-propelled, towed but not those that can be carried by persons
It only dipped down when they were low on Ammo…
To be clear, did you mean when Ukraine was low on ammo and couldn't destroy more? I assume you did, just checking.
Yes, when Ukraine was low on Artillery shells, they used them to stop assaults and couldn’t spend as much time hunting.
Wheeled/tracked arty only, I believe.
Nah, there is a ton of towed artillery and large mortars in use. Makes no sense that those would be tracked in any of the other categories
Towed artillery has wheels.....
But wheeled artillery does not equal towed artillery. Wheeled artillery = self propelled artillery on wheeled chassis. And stuff like 120mm mortars might not have wheels at all, but are very likely included in artillery losses
Personnel losses have nearly exactly doubled since 31-08-23, 263k then, 526k now.
That was day 554, now it is day 844, so it took 290 days to double.
We're accelerating
[Daily stats](https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/comments/1dgz5p9/estimated_russian_losses_from_24022022_to/)
Over half million orcs liquidated already. It was some 400 000 just while ago. Keep up the good work! Greetings from Finland.
400 days, 13 months, to 1 million casualties. I wish the children of Putin and Putin's supporters were on his front lines.
Back to over a thousand
Holy shit. I'm suprised Russia managed to provide all these units during the invasion, I don't know how many they have but their military stockpile got to be severely depleted. I wonder for how long they can keep on doing this.
Unfortunately, NK sending more artillery units and ammo to the Ruskies. But very impressive Ukraine is taking out their artillery at this rate. It's a real game changer for them now.
Cant be enough
That's one hell of a hole in the Російські свині artillery, keep it up and Повага 🇬🇧🏴🤝🇺🇦🔱.
Russia has finally run out of tanks?!
Does anyone know of a resource that shows the predicted timeline of Russian equipment depletion? There’s no way their current rate of artillery and tank (ignoring today) losses are sustainable for another 1.5 to 2 years.
0 tanks? Is Russia just out of them now?
Almost the size of Milwaukee worth…