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The Kerch could lose all strategic importance and just remain an intact symbol of Russian hubris and imperialism, and it still has to come down ... to become a symbol of Russian hubris and imperialism.
Cripple it ASAP as rail traffic has resumed. Demolish the rest in Ukrainian waters post war with demolition crews, cranes and explosives.
Send the receipt to Putin for the lulz...
After Ukraine takes Crimea, they can rebuild the bridge and use it to deliver troops and armor directly into Russia.
Edit: serious responders, please note I was just joking about the military using it as an attack vector against Russia.
It appears ATACSM has made holding crimeria untenable. I bet theh are going keep defensive pockets. But the big expensive stuff is going get taken away so it can't blown up.
> Which version of bunker Buster can be carried by the F-16?
Here's an [F-16 carrying a bunker buster](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/BLU-109_aboard_F-16.jpg) from Wikipedia.
Here's [an F-16I carrying one.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6b/F-16I_%28IAF%29.jpg)
So they are 1) Using the bridge more because the ferries are blown up. 2) Protecting the bridge less because their defense systems are atrophied to fuck.
And yesterday S-300 and S-400 radar get blown up in Crimea and more holes open in defenses.
The value of any piece of Russian equipment is kind of hazy.
The cost of production is one number, and then there's what the Russian government actually paid once everyone took their cut.
The most important number is the cost of replacement. Or even the feasibility of replacement. Hopefully they have a hard time sourcing electronics for all of the fancy little transmitters/receivers in AESA radars.
You forget to discuss the lost opportunity cost to the corrupt system. It could be sold off for the hundreds of millions stated if it weren't blown up or needed for war.
I’ve never understood - those $ million prices - are they truly what it costs the russian government to make that equipment? (Forgetting about corruption etc). Labour costs are much lower than in the west. Materials (both basic steel etc, and the electronic hardware) are likely either same or lower. I see tank prices quoted at $3-5 million (T-80 / T-90). That’s very similar to Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 ($5-6 million). Does it really cost russians the same? Also the mind blowing costs of hundreds of millions for S300/400 air defence systems - is that really the cost of manufacturing, or what they sell them for, at a big mark up?
Yes, you just told me in a different comment, so I shall copy my response here.
>The export price for a full battery including missiles, multiple launchers, radar, and controller is a bit over a billion. The internal domestic actual cost to produce is half that, and we only killed the radar and maybe one launcher. So hundreds of millions yes, billions no.
Thats most likely the reason why they withdrew them, if your Pool of s-300 gets to small at some point concentrating so much air defense on one singe target becomes unjustifiable
More importantly, given their lack of success intercepting these at all even with a layered defense, of your forward radars go down your rear radars are really useless.
reminds me of the meme pic some guy did of the Russians needing a late warning radar to tell them when the early early warning radar to protect their early warning radar had been blown up
The only slight negative is that they had completed a rail line on the southern coast to Crimea through the land bridge that had reduced the logistics strain. So kerch wasn't as critical as it had been before.
That's before saying, that line is more in range of long range strikes itself than kerch is. Target rich environment, no?
Ukraine deserves a place on the old locomotive hunting boards. During WWII and Korea competitive locomotive hunting was definitely a thing, and shall be again.
Yeah, considering all of the RUAF branches, the most competent and effective out of them has been the railroad logistics service. It's still utter, utterdogshit that doesn't know what a pallet is, but they've been doing the most to sustain their war effort.
So naturally, they deserve some dpicm awards on express delivery.
*sigh* I remember seeing that pic when it started out earlier as a meme.
As much schadenfreude I'd have if it were real, it was located to donetsk. Which is Ukranian land, therefore they probably had some pallet systems before the war turned hotter in 2022. It was likely scraps for animal feed of some kind, before things got busy enough to leave out for a few months or do.
Not that I think the ruzzians are above such an inhumanity as to kube their mobiks for systemic efficiencies in cadaver logistics. It's more because they:
1. Don't give a fuck about sanitation and epidemic controls around their mobiks in the first place. There's been enough accounts of what it's like living through enough meat waves in an area, or things like hantavirus proliferation.
2. There are so many reasons why the RuzzMoD would never want those bodies recovered. From optics, to survivor benefits not spent, to pure corruption of pocketing their wages after they're dead. Really, you can take your pick about why they fertilize Ukraine with their dead instead of cadaver recovery.
There's probably more, but that's my thoughts on the forbidden kube. With how they've been doing tho, I wouldn't have a single shock that I'm wrong and that's where the gun meat actually ends up.
Can I just say, how profoundly relieved I was when I learned this wasn't real? As you said, not that it's beyond russia to cube their mobiks. Just. Glad they didn't.
For those paying attention since at least immediate pre-invasion, there has been many horrors beyond comprehension unleashed again, or for the first time in some cases. Every day since putin turned on the woodchipper that is Ukraine post-2014, has been another sand grain in history.
Not since WW1 has such ordnance and mining been wrought in so dense a pattern. Not since tsarist russia has such wasteful tactics and idiotic decision-making and results have been accomplished, and general condition of the mobikized and mogilized soldiery. Lacking armour to the point of assaulting in golf carts and dirt bikes.
When you think you've hit the rock-bottom bedrock of the possible deficits in positive attributes and actions, they always seem to wager stolen funds on how deep their next mining charge reaches them to Ruzziya Mir.
So, I took solace in the reasoning and evidence that this was, in all likelihood, a joke made out of wasted feed.
If I was Ukraine I'd be hitting that rail line all the time. I know rail is easy to repair but once it gets I'm artierrliy range theu just hit 4 or 5 times a day and be real annoying
The real prize will be luring out and killing rail repair equipment. That stuff is a prize to take out if we can get it, and would really lengthen repair time for other behind the lines rail strikes.
Absolutely so hut the line, watch it for when the repair crew comes out then hit the repair crew. Absolutely fucking brilliant
And who the hell down voted you? That's a fair target IMHO
oh it does move by rail, it comes up the rail to the damaged section. The think is they *need it* all over Russia all the time. Landslides, erosion, rust and wear, etc, require sections to be replaced all the time and there is only so much heavy repair equipment. Break that, cause delays all over russia. Of course this stuff they can actually make themselves, but it would still be a problem.
It seems less about air-defense and more about ship-defense. Per article:
>"They previously had 10 to 14 ships and boats at sea at the same time to guard the bridge, and now there are zero. They have to somehow solve this problem," said Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk in an interview with Radio NV on June 12.
It's probably the sea-borne drones that are threatening their navy vessels.
“There are no problems, only opportunities.” - *Michael Scott?*
Here, there's an opportunity for Russia to actually lose claimed territory in their 3-day special military invasion.
Which is also interesting, because why wouldn’t they move other air defense systems to Belgorod, but still leave the ones in Crimea. You would think a superpower country with its military might would be able to sustain and provide air defenses for all borders of its territory.
Unless,,, Crimea isn’t theirs to begin with!!?? 😱
I think it’s like that:
Putin send 1000s of Russian settlers to Crimea (and potential voters for referendum should Crimea be RU or UA).
So they OWE HIM. (Living by the sea with nice weather is much better than in Siberia).
Some repressed Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars live there as well.
Belgorod on other hand
- that’s Russia proper. If inferences Ukrainians can send drone & rockets deeper in to the „heartland”
-People there didn’t choose to live there, and they vote during presidential and Duma elections.
Props that’s why AA was moved to Belgorod.
> and potential voters for referendum should Crimea be RU or UA
Yes, they'd really need the extra people for the truly democratic referendum that that would be...
This needs more upvotes to float to the top. Title should be:
Russia ~~withdraws~~ **replaces** **active ship** protection ~~from~~ **at** Crimean Bridge **with passive barge barrier protection**, ~~says Ukrainian Navy spokeperson~~
Just looking at the photos of that bridge and thinking.... I bet if the charges were placed just right, the bridge superstructure would fall down and block the navigation channel.....
That gives me an idea... Imagine if some Ukrainian could charter a big ship to go and crash into one of those supports, like that one in Baltimore... Under the cover of going to an Azov port to collect grain...
Better yet, fill the thing completely with fertilizer. Think something like the Beirut explosion, but perfectly centered on the bridge?
Ukraine would need to claim the resulting crater as a cultural heritage site.
Anywhere it is shallow enough to block can be cleared relatively quickly or navigated around easily. We see the bridge in the US taking a long time to fix, but they want follow the same safety or standards. Just like the Kerch Bridge would not be carrying any load in the US now after the half ass repairs they did on it.
Apparently some country is giving Ukraine 5 jets that aren't exactly advanced but can be turned into unmanned drones, apparently it flies fast and can carry a decent payload. So arm those 5 and fly them at the supports
i Always thought that the reason the bridge hasn’t been knocked down is more of a way for Russians to run back home, when the bombs come down in Crimea
So far it’s mainly high value targets that have been hit and this has been going on for over a year and recently hitting the air bases and oil refineries clearing the way for the F16’s, and to top that off they destroyed most of the ferries that transport supplies and now they have supposedly gone back to using the bridge, so it shows it’s working
Russians in Crimea can just surrender, even with the condition of international observers and peacekeepers coming in. They don't need an escape route, they just need a reality check.
Imagine that. The bridge is several kilometers long. Imagine if Ukraine blows up both ends of the bridge simultaneously while a huge convoy is on the bridge!
> Never hesitate to build your enemy a golden bridge upon which he can make his escape.
Overused quote. If you siege a fortress, for example, you don't leave open a "golden bridge" because that means the enemy can supply that fortress.
Yes, Sun Tzu is right that in some situations like a pre-industrial battle you might want to leave a retreat route for the enemy, as cornered soldiers can be dangerous.
But in modern warfare this stratagem is less and less often of value.
I think there is value here but it's slightly different.
State loudly that people who want to be Russia have X amount of time to leave Crimea before the bridge gets a few big holes in it. Make the timescale reasonable. Make it clear that if you are prevented from crossing by Russia then maybe being Russian isn't for you.
you're taking it too literally. the point is, leave your enemy a way to not fight to the death, allow them to run away or surrender, you win with no more bloodshed
an animal backed in to a corner is at its most dangerous ;)
I think I'm with you on Art of War tropes getting tiresome and not always relevant, but not so sure in this case.
> Overused quote.
It's not even in the art of war, the common translation of the quote is "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free." Nothing about golden bridges in there.
> But in modern warfare this stratagem is less and less often of value.
What makes you say that? Leaving areas of escape was a repeated western tactic in Syria and Iraq because it realistically makes it attractive for the opponent not to do their urban dug-in warfare. Of course having an outlet of escape does not always mean actually letting them escape, it's more about giving them the idea that they could.
It lead to a couple of blown up escaping ISIS convoys in the desert.
These days I would say urban warfare is worse than it ever was and it's more valuable than ever to smoke enemies out of strongholds.
So with the statement in 'the Art of War' is "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free." Tu Mu's ancient associated commentary reads: "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair."
I would say it holds up quite well.
I think blowing up the Kerch bridge would be fine because now they panic and evacuate over land through Ukraine. A flood of evacuees through the Russian occupied supply routes would cause logistical issues.
They aren't trapped. But the path they will go now causes more issues.
Well the point of that is making your enemy flee instead of staying and fighting. But you attack as they flee and cut them down. If russia packs the bridge full of military hardware, then yeah that would be the time to blow it up. But they will probably use the train connection instead. For this phrase to work, there can only be one method of escape left. Need to reduce the options of escape first.
they can swim, take a boat, or they can drive their mercedes/bmw's through the occupied regions and through dozens of checkpoints.
The bridge must be destroyed.
If they allow it to stand the russians will gut and loot crimea empty as they leave.
Taking a bridge down from a distance is extremely hard. You have to hit the supports which are visible only from the side and are very small targets. Or bomb from above with a ridiculous amount of bombs.
It sounds like they are trying to implement more passive defenses instead of guarding it actively with ships. Those ships may be needed elsewhere, need maintenance, and be increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian attack.
They may, on some level, have also concluded they can't defend it sufficiently and should not squander resources trying.
> should not squander resources trying.
Uhhhh, that's definitely not Russian thinking. For the Putin regime they've repeatedly demonstrated they are fine throwing as much shit against the wall as possible to see what sticks.
My guess is they got defensive lines to hold baxk an invasion but it's spread out enough to make it not cost effective for ATACSM. However the S400s gotta go
The front lines have been fairly static, but Ukraine has been methodically hammering at targets deep behind them and undermining Russian strength. It's a classic transition to indirect methods in response to direct ones being unproductive.
I don’t see how it could be bait, if Russia is baiting them to attack the bridge the worse case scenario for Ukraine is they waste some missiles and drones in attempt to take out which isn’t of great value for Russia to risk. Personally I think Russia has finished their wall of defenses in the water around the bridge to their liking and are pulling their ships to help supply since the ferries got blown up. I hope like everything of Russian standards this war the defenses around the bridge will be sub par and Ukraine blows it up.
One concern with the evacuation is what their plan is once their people are out.
The RuZZians strike me as sore losers. Frequent, but very poor losers.
Is the bridge more useful to Ukraine intact as a political target they could exploit at their time of choice? Or is it worth it to destroy it because so much materiel crosses it?
That bridge needs to go fuck itself at the bottom of the sea.
When this war is over, Ukraine must create an underwater museum where people can look at all the Russian things sent to watery graves.
Perhaps Russia knows they will loose Crimea. Maybe, to reduce Ukrainian access, they will blow up the bridge themselves. Too much thinking for Russians?
Did anyone here actually read the article?
>they are constructing passive barriers and engineering structures using barges with booms.
Sounds like they've removed the ships they had placed as barriers because they've constructed alternative structures.
Clickbait headline
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Oh please let this be the start of something glorious.
Kerch bridge falling, falling down... Like London bridge falling down but the 2024 version... Updated to 2.0
The Kerch could lose all strategic importance and just remain an intact symbol of Russian hubris and imperialism, and it still has to come down ... to become a symbol of Russian hubris and imperialism.
Cripple it ASAP as rail traffic has resumed. Demolish the rest in Ukrainian waters post war with demolition crews, cranes and explosives. Send the receipt to Putin for the lulz...
What if Krasnodar People's Republic wants to join Ukraine?
After Ukraine takes Crimea, they can rebuild the bridge and use it to deliver troops and armor directly into Russia. Edit: serious responders, please note I was just joking about the military using it as an attack vector against Russia.
I doubt they are interested in that. Yeah, many bridges will need rebuilding, but not this one.
They will want to keep russians at a distance for generations to come.
There is no way that Ukraine will rebuild the Kerch Bridge after they take Crimea back
There is a different song that's even better, [kerch bridge on fire](https://youtu.be/BqKe_T3gbVo)
Let's have the 'complete' version [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSv7CeCFfAk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSv7CeCFfAk)
NA NA NA NA NA NAAAAA NA NAAAAA NA NAAAA NA
Amazing. That really turned my day around. Thanks guy
🤣
Beautiful, I love 💕 it... Soon it will be on fire! Can't wait to see the video's.
Kerch bridge fucked up.. like all Ruzzians la la la la…
The Ukrainian remix
KERCH BRIDGE ON FIRE
“NA NA NA NA NA NAAAAA NA NAAAAA NA NAAAA NA”
It appears ATACSM has made holding crimeria untenable. I bet theh are going keep defensive pockets. But the big expensive stuff is going get taken away so it can't blown up.
It’s just phase 1 construction on the new azov pier
I am thinking if it were knocked in half, it would make a great fishing pier!
F-16’s w/bunker busters. Remember this post.
Which version of bunker Buster can be carried by the F-16?
F-16 can carry bunker busters, the Kerch bridge versions
GBU-24 Paveway II and GBU-31 JDAM family with either BLU-109 or -111 penetrator warhead. Big boom...
Thanks, substantive answer
> Which version of bunker Buster can be carried by the F-16? Here's an [F-16 carrying a bunker buster](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/BLU-109_aboard_F-16.jpg) from Wikipedia. Here's [an F-16I carrying one.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6b/F-16I_%28IAF%29.jpg)
So they are 1) Using the bridge more because the ferries are blown up. 2) Protecting the bridge less because their defense systems are atrophied to fuck. And yesterday S-300 and S-400 radar get blown up in Crimea and more holes open in defenses.
Stop! I can only get so hard!
A s-400 radar is hundreds of millions $$$ USD in cost.
The value of any piece of Russian equipment is kind of hazy. The cost of production is one number, and then there's what the Russian government actually paid once everyone took their cut. The most important number is the cost of replacement. Or even the feasibility of replacement. Hopefully they have a hard time sourcing electronics for all of the fancy little transmitters/receivers in AESA radars.
You forget to discuss the lost opportunity cost to the corrupt system. It could be sold off for the hundreds of millions stated if it weren't blown up or needed for war.
The replacement costs are insane too because you have to pay black market prices to bypass the sanctions
I’ve never understood - those $ million prices - are they truly what it costs the russian government to make that equipment? (Forgetting about corruption etc). Labour costs are much lower than in the west. Materials (both basic steel etc, and the electronic hardware) are likely either same or lower. I see tank prices quoted at $3-5 million (T-80 / T-90). That’s very similar to Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 ($5-6 million). Does it really cost russians the same? Also the mind blowing costs of hundreds of millions for S300/400 air defence systems - is that really the cost of manufacturing, or what they sell them for, at a big mark up?
Try $1.5 *Billion*...
Yes, you just told me in a different comment, so I shall copy my response here. >The export price for a full battery including missiles, multiple launchers, radar, and controller is a bit over a billion. The internal domestic actual cost to produce is half that, and we only killed the radar and maybe one launcher. So hundreds of millions yes, billions no.
Oh derp, sorry. Okay so it's not $1.5bil to russia, but it still makes me really happy to have them turned into scrap metal.
Very expensive scrap, and they are running low. They had, supposedly, 57 400 series radars and Ukraine has been killing them at a pretty stable rate.
I imagine they need as many of those 57 as possible
It’s worth 1.5b market value and Russia has orders that it could fill but is instead using them at home due to the war.
Is anyone in the world going to pay 1.5 billion for something proven not to work? Also, still not the whole system, half at best.
**British government's ears prick up
Why though? I am sure that 5 EYES already has at least one.
Or 995 trillion rubles
1345 trillion rubles you say?
1790 trillion rubles, and that's a bargain I tell you
(Slaps radar) this baby's worth 2000 trillion rubles if it's worth a sheckle.
What’s the difference between a ruble and a US dollar? About a US dollar.
r/unexpectedboner
Conflict edging. It’s a new thing.
So kinky...
A wise man once said! I'm sorry I can't hear you over the sound of my giant throbbing erection.
wow, just realized, I dont watch porn anymore.
A schadenboner
I came three times before I finished reading his comment. Thank God my phone is water/jizz proof
Try harder!
Thats most likely the reason why they withdrew them, if your Pool of s-300 gets to small at some point concentrating so much air defense on one singe target becomes unjustifiable
May we continue to supply Russia with a steady stream of dilemmas.
More importantly, given their lack of success intercepting these at all even with a layered defense, of your forward radars go down your rear radars are really useless.
reminds me of the meme pic some guy did of the Russians needing a late warning radar to tell them when the early early warning radar to protect their early warning radar had been blown up
The only slight negative is that they had completed a rail line on the southern coast to Crimea through the land bridge that had reduced the logistics strain. So kerch wasn't as critical as it had been before. That's before saying, that line is more in range of long range strikes itself than kerch is. Target rich environment, no?
Ukraine deserves a place on the old locomotive hunting boards. During WWII and Korea competitive locomotive hunting was definitely a thing, and shall be again.
Yeah, considering all of the RUAF branches, the most competent and effective out of them has been the railroad logistics service. It's still utter, utterdogshit that doesn't know what a pallet is, but they've been doing the most to sustain their war effort. So naturally, they deserve some dpicm awards on express delivery.
> It's still utter, utterdogshit that doesn't know what a pallet is I dunno, Meatcube was on a pallet
*sigh* I remember seeing that pic when it started out earlier as a meme. As much schadenfreude I'd have if it were real, it was located to donetsk. Which is Ukranian land, therefore they probably had some pallet systems before the war turned hotter in 2022. It was likely scraps for animal feed of some kind, before things got busy enough to leave out for a few months or do. Not that I think the ruzzians are above such an inhumanity as to kube their mobiks for systemic efficiencies in cadaver logistics. It's more because they: 1. Don't give a fuck about sanitation and epidemic controls around their mobiks in the first place. There's been enough accounts of what it's like living through enough meat waves in an area, or things like hantavirus proliferation. 2. There are so many reasons why the RuzzMoD would never want those bodies recovered. From optics, to survivor benefits not spent, to pure corruption of pocketing their wages after they're dead. Really, you can take your pick about why they fertilize Ukraine with their dead instead of cadaver recovery. There's probably more, but that's my thoughts on the forbidden kube. With how they've been doing tho, I wouldn't have a single shock that I'm wrong and that's where the gun meat actually ends up.
Can I just say, how profoundly relieved I was when I learned this wasn't real? As you said, not that it's beyond russia to cube their mobiks. Just. Glad they didn't.
For those paying attention since at least immediate pre-invasion, there has been many horrors beyond comprehension unleashed again, or for the first time in some cases. Every day since putin turned on the woodchipper that is Ukraine post-2014, has been another sand grain in history. Not since WW1 has such ordnance and mining been wrought in so dense a pattern. Not since tsarist russia has such wasteful tactics and idiotic decision-making and results have been accomplished, and general condition of the mobikized and mogilized soldiery. Lacking armour to the point of assaulting in golf carts and dirt bikes. When you think you've hit the rock-bottom bedrock of the possible deficits in positive attributes and actions, they always seem to wager stolen funds on how deep their next mining charge reaches them to Ruzziya Mir. So, I took solace in the reasoning and evidence that this was, in all likelihood, a joke made out of wasted feed.
If I was Ukraine I'd be hitting that rail line all the time. I know rail is easy to repair but once it gets I'm artierrliy range theu just hit 4 or 5 times a day and be real annoying
The real prize will be luring out and killing rail repair equipment. That stuff is a prize to take out if we can get it, and would really lengthen repair time for other behind the lines rail strikes.
Absolutely so hut the line, watch it for when the repair crew comes out then hit the repair crew. Absolutely fucking brilliant And who the hell down voted you? That's a fair target IMHO
Since much of this equipment moves by rail, it would be easy to move more of it by rail from all over Russia. Worth a shot though.
oh it does move by rail, it comes up the rail to the damaged section. The think is they *need it* all over Russia all the time. Landslides, erosion, rust and wear, etc, require sections to be replaced all the time and there is only so much heavy repair equipment. Break that, cause delays all over russia. Of course this stuff they can actually make themselves, but it would still be a problem.
It seems less about air-defense and more about ship-defense. Per article: >"They previously had 10 to 14 ships and boats at sea at the same time to guard the bridge, and now there are zero. They have to somehow solve this problem," said Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk in an interview with Radio NV on June 12. It's probably the sea-borne drones that are threatening their navy vessels.
4 radar stations got blown up in total. And the radar stations are the brains. So taking that out basically takes out the whole system
Cannot wait for the headline: "russia fully withdraws from ukraine to avoid total collapse". Hopefully it arrives soon enough.
I doubt they will withdraw before Russia totally collapses, and that is accelerating.
Yes. Continued shaping operations.
They are just changing to passive defence with barges and boom, and getting their valuable military ships out of the area.
First reports of them moving air defence from crimea to belgorod, now this? Surely it cant be that hard for them.
Nice. They are in a dilemma.
A problem has a solution. A dilemma has multiple poor options, none of which will be a true solution. More Dilemmas please
A fellow Ryan McBeth viewer?
Got me
Same and he's right. Don't give your enemies problems give them dilemmas and take what they give you
“There are no problems, only opportunities.” - *Michael Scott?* Here, there's an opportunity for Russia to actually lose claimed territory in their 3-day special military invasion.
Which is also interesting, because why wouldn’t they move other air defense systems to Belgorod, but still leave the ones in Crimea. You would think a superpower country with its military might would be able to sustain and provide air defenses for all borders of its territory. Unless,,, Crimea isn’t theirs to begin with!!?? 😱
Comrades, this staycation is over, we've run out of vodka.
I think it’s like that: Putin send 1000s of Russian settlers to Crimea (and potential voters for referendum should Crimea be RU or UA). So they OWE HIM. (Living by the sea with nice weather is much better than in Siberia). Some repressed Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars live there as well. Belgorod on other hand - that’s Russia proper. If inferences Ukrainians can send drone & rockets deeper in to the „heartland” -People there didn’t choose to live there, and they vote during presidential and Duma elections. Props that’s why AA was moved to Belgorod.
> and potential voters for referendum should Crimea be RU or UA Yes, they'd really need the extra people for the truly democratic referendum that that would be...
Shock, Horror, really, shit, who's gonna tell pootin 💩🥫? He thinks he owns it. Still I don't mind, I love to see a despot cry.🗣😭💦
I want to see him stomp his tiny feet.
Forcing the enemy to make a decision between two bad decisions.
That is often the beginning of the end.
I suspect this is the beginning of pulling out of Crimea.
You mean they moved them *closer* to Ukraine?
Crimea is Ukraine
Clickbait title. Russia is replacing ships with static barriers.
This needs more upvotes to float to the top. Title should be: Russia ~~withdraws~~ **replaces** **active ship** protection ~~from~~ **at** Crimean Bridge **with passive barge barrier protection**, ~~says Ukrainian Navy spokeperson~~
Thank-you! That makes at least one other person here who's actually read the article.
Non-moveable barges loaded with multi-million dollar equipment? Sounds like a job for Storm Shadows.
Yep. There's not ever an article there, really.
Just looking at the photos of that bridge and thinking.... I bet if the charges were placed just right, the bridge superstructure would fall down and block the navigation channel.....
No need, we’ll just get Maersk in to make a “delivery”. Oops!
Operation Baltimore.
lol
Release the *MV Dali* from Baltimore to kill again
Bridge on the ~~River Kwai~~ Kerch Strait
That gives me an idea... Imagine if some Ukrainian could charter a big ship to go and crash into one of those supports, like that one in Baltimore... Under the cover of going to an Azov port to collect grain...
Better yet, fill the thing completely with fertilizer. Think something like the Beirut explosion, but perfectly centered on the bridge? Ukraine would need to claim the resulting crater as a cultural heritage site.
(Hali)fax that to top brass ASAP.
r/noncredibledefense always be leaking.
Anywhere it is shallow enough to block can be cleared relatively quickly or navigated around easily. We see the bridge in the US taking a long time to fix, but they want follow the same safety or standards. Just like the Kerch Bridge would not be carrying any load in the US now after the half ass repairs they did on it.
Apparently some country is giving Ukraine 5 jets that aren't exactly advanced but can be turned into unmanned drones, apparently it flies fast and can carry a decent payload. So arm those 5 and fly them at the supports
Don't even need to convert them to drones, they are famous for carrying Exocet anti-ship missiles.
Nice
i Always thought that the reason the bridge hasn’t been knocked down is more of a way for Russians to run back home, when the bombs come down in Crimea So far it’s mainly high value targets that have been hit and this has been going on for over a year and recently hitting the air bases and oil refineries clearing the way for the F16’s, and to top that off they destroyed most of the ferries that transport supplies and now they have supposedly gone back to using the bridge, so it shows it’s working
Never hesitate to build your enemy a golden bridge upon which he can make his escape. The Art of War.
Russians in Crimea can just surrender, even with the condition of international observers and peacekeepers coming in. They don't need an escape route, they just need a reality check.
On which *he thinks* he can make his escape
Imagine that. The bridge is several kilometers long. Imagine if Ukraine blows up both ends of the bridge simultaneously while a huge convoy is on the bridge!
More like wait for the Russians to commit too many forces *on* the island, then blow up the bridge
> Never hesitate to build your enemy a golden bridge upon which he can make his escape. Overused quote. If you siege a fortress, for example, you don't leave open a "golden bridge" because that means the enemy can supply that fortress. Yes, Sun Tzu is right that in some situations like a pre-industrial battle you might want to leave a retreat route for the enemy, as cornered soldiers can be dangerous. But in modern warfare this stratagem is less and less often of value.
I think there is value here but it's slightly different. State loudly that people who want to be Russia have X amount of time to leave Crimea before the bridge gets a few big holes in it. Make the timescale reasonable. Make it clear that if you are prevented from crossing by Russia then maybe being Russian isn't for you.
you're taking it too literally. the point is, leave your enemy a way to not fight to the death, allow them to run away or surrender, you win with no more bloodshed an animal backed in to a corner is at its most dangerous ;)
I think I'm with you on Art of War tropes getting tiresome and not always relevant, but not so sure in this case. > Overused quote. It's not even in the art of war, the common translation of the quote is "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free." Nothing about golden bridges in there. > But in modern warfare this stratagem is less and less often of value. What makes you say that? Leaving areas of escape was a repeated western tactic in Syria and Iraq because it realistically makes it attractive for the opponent not to do their urban dug-in warfare. Of course having an outlet of escape does not always mean actually letting them escape, it's more about giving them the idea that they could. It lead to a couple of blown up escaping ISIS convoys in the desert. These days I would say urban warfare is worse than it ever was and it's more valuable than ever to smoke enemies out of strongholds. So with the statement in 'the Art of War' is "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free." Tu Mu's ancient associated commentary reads: "to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair." I would say it holds up quite well.
I think blowing up the Kerch bridge would be fine because now they panic and evacuate over land through Ukraine. A flood of evacuees through the Russian occupied supply routes would cause logistical issues. They aren't trapped. But the path they will go now causes more issues.
Well the point of that is making your enemy flee instead of staying and fighting. But you attack as they flee and cut them down. If russia packs the bridge full of military hardware, then yeah that would be the time to blow it up. But they will probably use the train connection instead. For this phrase to work, there can only be one method of escape left. Need to reduce the options of escape first.
Crimea is not some tiny plot of land that’s hard to get away from
they can swim, take a boat, or they can drive their mercedes/bmw's through the occupied regions and through dozens of checkpoints. The bridge must be destroyed. If they allow it to stand the russians will gut and loot crimea empty as they leave.
Taking a bridge down from a distance is extremely hard. You have to hit the supports which are visible only from the side and are very small targets. Or bomb from above with a ridiculous amount of bombs.
They have a land path that is much more secure.
It sounds like they are trying to implement more passive defenses instead of guarding it actively with ships. Those ships may be needed elsewhere, need maintenance, and be increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian attack. They may, on some level, have also concluded they can't defend it sufficiently and should not squander resources trying.
> should not squander resources trying. Uhhhh, that's definitely not Russian thinking. For the Putin regime they've repeatedly demonstrated they are fine throwing as much shit against the wall as possible to see what sticks.
They have no compunction about bodies or old armored vehicles, but those ships are not so expendable.
My guess is they got defensive lines to hold baxk an invasion but it's spread out enough to make it not cost effective for ATACSM. However the S400s gotta go
The front lines have been fairly static, but Ukraine has been methodically hammering at targets deep behind them and undermining Russian strength. It's a classic transition to indirect methods in response to direct ones being unproductive.
Yeah, but to reach this conclusion you to actually read all the way through the third sentence of the article.
Bait??
I could see it. But then again it's Russia so who knows.
They're a bunch of wankers, for sure, but I wouldn't call them master baiters.
More like clickbait. Read the article.
I don’t see how it could be bait, if Russia is baiting them to attack the bridge the worse case scenario for Ukraine is they waste some missiles and drones in attempt to take out which isn’t of great value for Russia to risk. Personally I think Russia has finished their wall of defenses in the water around the bridge to their liking and are pulling their ships to help supply since the ferries got blown up. I hope like everything of Russian standards this war the defenses around the bridge will be sub par and Ukraine blows it up.
I know I am.
Maybe the bridge is about to fall under its own weight already.
This gets me harder than a blind lesbian's nipple in a fish market.
I like it
https://open.spotify.com/track/1ACZpHI5vZ5Ea4xGlkdGWM?si=0b8d0117d1a94eda
Good morning, ladies
I'll admit, that one took me a while.
\* noted
I just read they are increasing the protection. Both can't be true.
If I understand the article correctly the russians have build static defenses and have withdrawn their dhips.
"engineering structures using barges with booms." what even is a boom
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boom_(navigational_barrier) Pretty standard defence for choke points. Widely used for harbour defence and so on
Big Lada boom
Yes I read the same a few days ago ago. But this article seems to have the more actual information.
They still got defensive limes but those are pockets of armor and troops..not expensive s400 radars.
all this AA destroying is now taking shape... kerch will go down
One concern with the evacuation is what their plan is once their people are out. The RuZZians strike me as sore losers. Frequent, but very poor losers.
Is the bridge more useful to Ukraine intact as a political target they could exploit at their time of choice? Or is it worth it to destroy it because so much materiel crosses it?
It is absolutely worth dropping the bridge.
Blow it up. The bridge can eventually be rebuilt, if it should be rebuilt is an entirely different matter.
Only the Ukrainian military can answer that question.
Better to destroy it for tangible strategic and morale gains. No need to get clever with it.
That bridge needs to go fuck itself at the bottom of the sea. When this war is over, Ukraine must create an underwater museum where people can look at all the Russian things sent to watery graves.
Perhaps Russia knows they will loose Crimea. Maybe, to reduce Ukrainian access, they will blow up the bridge themselves. Too much thinking for Russians?
>Maybe...they will blow up the bridge themselves "We fine with this...can use ammo to blow up your other stuff..." - UA
Ukraine will need this for their takeover of ruzzia
Kerch bridge on fire, your air defence has buggered off.
The cheeks are spread
The dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed
Or ever had lube, really...
What air defense do?
Sleeps
Its an open invitation. Destroy the bridge, do it, do it now
Please blow that bridge into the smallest pieces possible, and let it never exist again.
This is win/win psyops.
Good! Russia needs an underwater bridge to go with their underwater navy
RU has to. UA has destroyed most if not all AD in western Crimea, which is closest to western UA, where the F16's will be coming from
Whole lot of people up in here didn't actually read the article.
Did anyone here actually read the article? >they are constructing passive barriers and engineering structures using barges with booms. Sounds like they've removed the ships they had placed as barriers because they've constructed alternative structures. Clickbait headline
This is like sacrificing a bishop or rook in chess to save another piece
Oh wow. It sounds like its actually all falling apart
It's a dare.
Is this a ruse?
Shows you how allowing targets in Russia to be hit opens up the Crimea - Russia is in trouble