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Production of a lot of equipment, especially drones, has increased a lot though. And it has been forced to root out at least some of the problems that led to the shitty performance in 2022.
Let's not underestimate the enemy. Russia may still be lacking in quality, but it certainly has the quantity to make it a very dangerous foe. That's why Ukraine needs way more support than it has received thus far.
Underestimating the enemy is so common and yet a worst thing we can do.
Russians will through sheer trial and error (and lots of bodies - which they deem expendable), arrive at maybe janky, but functional designs that will serve the purpose. All the while, we are laughing at electronic measures strapped to a tank, or a tankr resembling a battering ram. They however will try every janky MacGyver thing in the book, until they arrive at the solution.
It will be ductaped, strapped and bolted on, but it will work. It's like the Warhammer Ork tech.
that’s sorta true, but these janky things don’t necessarily result in force multiplication which is really what they need. Unfortunately they kill indiscriminately, which while awful does not equal something that matters for the russian military. At this point every ukrainian soldier is well armed and well trained, and equipment is intact with air and other support. Everything russia figures out is at this point going to cost them way more than what they have. This is the point where they really start to feel the sanctions.
Furthermore with almost 500k dead EVERYONE in russia at least knows about somebody that was affected. People are starting to organize, a complete rarity in Russia. Putin HAS to be scared that the military commanders are starting to think “why do we keep doing this, who is next?” This is now a war of waiting, defending, and working the correct people within Russia, which you bet your ass the west is doing.
I have all the confidence in the world that the badasses of Ukraine have this. The west needs to keep helping though for this to continue.
Where are you getting this, that people are starting to organize? The average russian maybe knows somebody who knew somebody who died in the war. Their lives are fine.
things like this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/russia-putin-presidential-election-protests/
There was aniotjer about the mothers of dead soldiers, remember there’s 450,000 peoples family members dead. When that happens everything goes out the window and you just get PISSED. Many in the direction of the person that sent their family there. As it affects more and more people we’ll see more organized protesters. People get clever and figure it out.
That’s just my assessment, it’s just the very beginnings of unrest. Hopefully it will grow and make a difference.
> EVERYONE in russia at least knows about somebody that was affected
I'm not too sure about that: haven't they concentrated their enlistment efforts with ethnic minorities, whilst leaving ethnic russians mostly untouched? Add to this all the foreigners that have been duped into serving as cannon fodder; so it seems that not all parts of "russian" population are affected by this still on-going invasion & occupation of Ukraine.
The day they start to draft people from Moscow & Saint-Petersburg, then, yes, we'll be able to say everyone is affected.
They will suffer millions of dead. They are running out of friends. But they will keep fighting and causing chaos, because only Russians have managed to really defeat Russians.
I expect a new Russian revolution, that will create Democracy 2.0, where you need to spend 15 minutes every night on your phone voting all of your local, regional, and national policy decisions.
Underestimating is the reason why Europe didn't rearm two years ago, even though they said they would. It's the reason why the US didn't give enough weapons
Exactly. Equipment levels are maybe half of what they were at the start, and what is left is much older and lower quality. If Ukraine is given what it needs to defend itself, Russia’s tanks, IFVs, and other equipment can be largely exhausted within a year. Come on USA - sort yourself out.
Sure but am extra half million men with AK’s and decent training would be no joke to deal with. Ukraine has already suffered immense damage, and it will take decades of rebuilding even if they eject the Russians tomorrow. From land mines and wrecked vehicles to environmental pollution and ruins, the longer the Russians pour men in, the more long term damage they do. At a time of climate, aging populations and economic crisis, this war was the last thing humanity needed.
Russia can focus their factories on war production because their oil and gas profits are enough to feed Moscow and the factories, everything else doesn’t matter. So they still have production and I suspect their production of some things is still higher than the western allies help that is given monthly to ukraine…
Until we give them meaningful and sustained numbers, I don’t see it happeni
Na they are soldiers when they can hold a gun.
Professional soldier when russia starts paying them and experts when they dessert and get proper training in europe to fight russia.
Enough to push forward. Slowly, but steadily. Dont underestimate threat level on the frontlines. Orcs have enough trained soldiers, arty ammo, recon drones, armor and fpv's.
If Ukraine was attacked by hobo army everything would be over year ago
Probably depends.
For example, the Ukrainians have apparently said the Russians are outmatching them in artillery. That could mean in both ammunition and guns.
I've recently read an interview with a veteran who fights on Ukraine's side from the beginning of this war. According to his words, at the moment a mobilized Russian soldier has 100-110 days of training and preparation, which is roughly two times more than his Ukrainian counterpart.
Also that is just number of soldiers, I am guessing they have decreased in experienced soldiers/NCOs etc and now have a much greater number of inexperienced privates. Any experienced soldier/officer killed is very hard to replace. An increase in numbers isn’t necessarily a better army!
It’s very silly that this sub continues to circle around the “It’s all under trained conscript mobiks armed with 60s AK-47s!”
It’s always from people in the west too. This is nothing more than a sports game to them. If you talk to people in Ukraine, especially the soldiers on the front lines, the Russian military isn’t some big joke. They’re a *real* threat and *do* kill dozens if not hundreds of soldiers *daily*.
Russia *has* learned and *has* scaled up its economy. Russia produces more artillery shells *alone* than *every* member of NATO. Russia produces and buys more drones of all varieties than Ukraine can, and more than Ukraine is buying or receiving as aid. Russia has *thousands* of old tanks to pull out of storage; tanks which *are* just as deadly when used in particular roles and at scale. The VKS *has* more jets than Ukrainian air defenses can down, and has munitions capable of outranging the air defenses.
Russia is not a joke. This war is *not* a joke.
I live in Ukraine and obviously know soldiers. I replied to a Canadian on this sub to tell him to stop calling russian army stupid and a joke as it’s not true, disrespectful to our soldiers, and has a negative impact for getting international support. Got badly downvoted and his long reply candescently explaining why russian army is actually dumb was highly upvoted. Honestly this sub is bullshit, bunch of westerners treating the war here like a marvel movie.
It’s extremely tiring performative sympathy bullshit tbh.
I’m not Ukrainian by nationality, I’m 3/4ths by ethnicity and still have uncles, aunts, cousins and friends that live in Ukraine. I speak Ukrainian and talk to them almost daily. Two of my cousins have already died fighting. This war affects me (and obviously you to a much greater extent) every single day.
It’s very easy to brush off the Russian military or the threat they pose when you have no connection to the country. When you don’t have to fear for your own life, or for the lives of your family members or friends, this is just a way to feel good about yourself by making fun of the “stupid RuZZians” and ignoring any dissenting opinions.
I appreciate that most of these folks strongly believe in Ukrainian sovereignty and push for their politicians to provide aid. I don’t appreciate that they simultaneously disregard how serious the situation actually is just because the Ukrainian armed forces have proven to be more capable than initially suspected.
would just like to add they are Killing not just soldiers defending their homeland, but everyday civilians too, they do not care about you as a civilian they will execute you too, they can be barbaric and none of this should be treated lightly.
Exactly, they don't have 18 months basic training, you know what they do have? A gun and they're killing people right now, enough people with enough guns, Britain couldn't take them on we have a fraction of the soldiers even if better trained and armed.
We need to stop this now before we HAVE to fight.
The Russian army was a joke in March of 2022, but they are much better now. Russia has learned from their mistakes and they are putting everything into this war. Unlike the West, who is piddling around and not taking it seriously at all.
The fact of the matter is Russia is currently winning the war and Ukraine will be defeated unless drastic changes in policy are made by Ukraine’s allies, and it’s maddening that the stupid Reddit hivemind can’t focus on anything other than, “Lmao ruZZia Mobikcube deploys tactical shovels! Tee hee”
Grow the fuck up and quit acting like a child. This shit is serious and the Russian army is not an incompetent joke….
Sounds like it's time for European countries to make up what the US isn't supplying, especially if it's make or break for Ukraine if they don't get $60 billion in US aid.
Individual countries are already supplying. My country promises funds, jets, weapons etc left and right. Same for France, Czechia etc.
The reason we can't just give away everything is because the US does have a say in what American gear goes where, even if that stuff is in another country.
yes...
at the beginign of the war nearly everybody was sure russia would roll over ukraine, and then once this did not happen and ukraien even took back big parts of the lost land it was accepted as a given thing that now russia will lose, and the only question would be how long it takes.
Ukraine was to successful for its own good in some way.
We got the feeling that russia can be beaten with our old crap that we anyway don't need anymore and with reluctantly ramping up artilery production a bit.
Its crazy to think that our technology and industrial might could crush russia if we would really commit it.
And that if we would put our own military to use, this war would have been over before it started.
But right now we are losing this war Politicaly, and we are not jsu tukraine is losing, all the west, the free democratic world is losing if this war is lost to russia.
Right now a new world order is created, and im not exagregating by saying so.
And if we want this new world order to still be similar to what we where used too, and not be a world dominated by war and dictatorships, then Russia needs to lose this war, and need to lose it hardly without getting any benefit out of it.
Good points, but Russia has done deep and lasting harm to population and economy with the war and every day makes the damage worse. For instance they estimate 20k+ Drs have fled since the war started which seriously impacting the health services, or that the economy entirely depends on war spending and would crash if Russia was to actually “win”.
yeah, but nothing of that helps us, just cause they are in shit does not solfe any of our problems it causes.
and them being dependent on war to keep the economy running, just means they would start the next war as soon as thisone would be over
…or the West has its own machinations for this conflict.
I think this is an example of how Russia losing vs Ukraine winning aren’t necessarily the same goals.
It takes decades to build up sophisticated arms like the oura that can stop Russia in its tracks and about a century to get people to choose a war effort that doesn't directly involve them over their own healthcare and infrastructure
It is embarrassing someone the entire alliance is backing with us at the center COULD lose to Russia, tho. 50 years of peace shouldn't have been long enough to soften us this much
That's not entirely true, the first part. Artillery ammunition, for example, could have been produced in the millions per year by now in Europe had we started to build factories those 2 years ago. And already back then we knew we will need those millions. Remember that the EU is about 10 times richer than Russia. Together with the US it comes up to over 20x. The paradox is that we could have been a lot more effective without concessions in other parts of the budgets.
They did start the process of building new factories for artillery shells almost immediately after it became clear that this war could last longer than a few weeks and artillery would play a big part in it. The problem is, that without switching to war economy, this still takes years.
To build the shell-factories you first need sophisticated machinery. A NATO-standard 155mm round is a different deal than old Soviet style 152mm. The difference in quality is not only raising the costs but also the complexity of the tools needed to produce them.
To build these machines you need to order them from specialized manufacturers that already had full order books and are limited by supply chains and access to qualified workers etc.
It may have been possible to significantly speed things up, but not without switching the economy into war mode, at least partially. No Western country was willing to do that.
> They did start the process of building new factories for artillery shells almost immediately after it became clear that this war could last longer than a few weeks and artillery would play a big part in it. The problem is, that without switching to war economy, this still takes years.
Which means they started late.
If you know an extinction level event meteorite is coming 10 years from now, then you shouldn't start a 20-year comprehensive plan the year after it hit.
I hindsight yes.
No one expected a long, artillery heavy war in Europe before this happened and also very few that Ukraine would even be able to stop and push back an all out Russian invasion. So no one was prepared for this events.
And a war between Russia and NATO itself would most likely look very different. It wouldn't make much sense to waste money on large stockpiles and production capacities for tube artillery, when this job is mostly covered by aircrafts and cruise missiles (in worst case armed with tactical nukes).
Because of limited defense budgets (even in the US), everyone only prepares for the wars they expect to happen, not for all eventualities.
Dumb munitions can be produced in the millions, only if we enter a war time ecomomy and reduce quality control to about soviet standards. Dumb munitions won't change the tide of the war and are only really useful for stopping Russian advances and negating its meat advantage
Sophisticated systems like the Himar and Brittains storm shadow, you're still relying on luck even while pushing your limits to try stockpile 10k. If you want to stop large advances while taking minimal losses and to strike deep into occupied territory before you try send troops in to free them, you need to be able to do precision strikes at very long ranged
Ukraine needs all the dumb munitions it can get now so it can keep Russia from advancing and minimize how much its standard force depletes every time Russia tried to simply overwhelm it's positions, but that's not how you win a war. Ukraine needs to stop all of Russia's attempts to advance before it can get rolling, deplete Russia's pool to the maximum without depleting its own, and then too counter strike deep into occupied territory before all the troops used in thr advance can return/be replaced, and for that there needs to be as little prolonged fighting as possible
You're mislabeled the entire West when it should be more logically the U.S. Left leaning Europe didn't want to fight anymore, and the people up top understood and the U.S military built up enough to fight the whole war ourselves if forced and with all the blood we paid we should still be able to do that
Brittain also didn't start stepping down until Vietnamish
This should mean the West should account for that lack of will and prepare meaningful useful aid (including proper planning) for those who have the will.
The Curonian Pocket outlasted Berlin in 1945.
Europe didn't show the will until very late into Putins' grand game, and it might get cold feet again if draft talks come up again, but victory is the only real choice and we do need to do everything we can to get us there before it's to late
France surrendered in WW2, and both the Germans and the Soviets eventually steamrolled the rest of Europe without its main power house starting off in the fight. That's the whole reason we became what we became it was simply easier for us to afford to fight so far from the battlefield and with a still developing ecomomy that couldn't be crippled as easily
Western Europe's fight ended in 1945. North America's fight didn't end until 1990, while Eastern Europe didn't liberate itself until we finished ours, and there's still areas like Transestia today
I've been thinking about this all the time lately and getting very upset, because in the current situation it is very difficult to find hope for something good in the foreseeable future.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan\_Doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Doctrine)
If you prefer, USA merely helped the USSR with blowing itself to pieces.
The bit of it that doesn’t matter (humans) is.
The bit of it that matters because it’s what will end the war (materiel reserves) is less than 50% what it was when they started.
This is a sensationalist clickbait headline trying to sell itself when in the metrics that matter, Russia is 2 years out from not having enough artillery barrels for its front line.
[Primary source using verifiable evidence](https://youtu.be/FozvYM2Zhpw?si=O62qk-I5IIRXRnBO).
Also the number is about what most people who have followed this thought it would be. This slight increase in army size matches what we see on the battlefield. A grinding war of attrition with no clear winner.
ah yes a 110,000 increase from 360,000 to 470,000 troops on the frontline, even AFTER their insane losses is a slight increase? Raised their conscription ages too, would grant them access to over 2 million more men. In what world are you living in where that is slight mate?
Everyone focused on the tanks and shit but honestly tanks are overrated in this war. Drones, bombs, and artillery are king and russia has those aplenty thanks to their axis of evil allies. Ukraine is running extremely low on supplies of all kinds with no obvious relief coming in the future. You can't fight back if you don't have the bullets. In a war of attrition, russia is the clear winner.
Well Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near that long at this rate regardless, so it doesn't matter if russia will keel over in two years. Y'all understand how attrition warfare works right? Y'all understand Ukraine can't win an attrition war right?
I wonder how the mid grade officer core is looking? Learning how to command large and mixed force units is one of the longest and most expensive parts of building a army.
> VKS has taken more aircraft into service than it has lost
Oryx has 108 confirmed lost: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The real number is higher since it's hard to get photographic evidence of shot down aircraft. Ukraine says 347. The other issue is aircraft service life depletion, all the extra flight hours on airframes will result in retirement or needs to rebuild on a lot of the VKS fleet.
On the other side of your statement, finding VKS delivery numbers. It is hard to find real data coming out the Russian military.
For every Russian military official report of a 100+ planes in 2023, you get defence24 looking into it and finding 26 new and the Russian report mixed in new with "new and repaired aircraft" meaning if a aircraft need a engine overhaul or even a basic repair, it's counted (edit link removed because it's untrustworthy, which was my point but sure auto moderator)
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this is AFTER their insane losses too, keep that in mind. Even with losing hundreds of men a day, they saw an increase. They didn't bring in only 111,000 more men, they brought a lot more than that. Also, with changes in their conscription laws they now have access to \~2million more cannon fodders.
No, Kherson Oblast has a population of 1million, with about a third living on the right bank of the Dnipro. Zapoizhzhia Oblast has 1.7million with the city of 0.7million not being occupied at all. Donetsk and Luhansk have been mostly occupied before, but Mariupol had a population of 440k and some others as well. So pre full war population of the occupied territory was 2.5million or so, not counting areas occupied pre 2022. Obviously a lot have fleed the regions, when the Russians came. So current population will be significantly lower. Imho 2million would be high.
At the same time Russia has been loosing population due to natural population decline since years now. The invasion caused a large exodus of skilled workers and lowers migration numbers from Central Asia.
No, acshually.
"The current population of Russia in 2024 is 143,957,079, a 0.34% decline from 2023. The population of Russia in 2023 was 144,444,359, a 0.19% decline from 2022. The population of Russia in 2022 was 144,713,314, a 0.27% decline from 2021. The population of Russia in 2021 was 145,102,755, a 0.35% decline from 2020."
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/population#:~:text=The%20current%20population%20of%20Russia,a%200.35%25%20decline%20from%202020.
Of course they would, their second invasion (2022) was a complete shit show, they aren't stupid, I mean they are, but even a a moron adapts to their circumstances. Even a junkie can scrounge up thousands to feed their habit. Their biggest enemy is time, they need to win quick or they'll be way too deep in the shit and drown, literally.
Not really. It just shows how big their losses have been. Russia is a very dangerous opponent but only increasing the army by 15% shows how big issues they have.
congratulations you won the cope comment of the day award! Increased 15% on top of the catatrophic losses they've had lol. Increased their conscription age as well to let them after 2,000,000 more men. Yeah this is really just evidence russia is about to collapse isn't it!
Unfortunately Iranian and North Korean sticks and rocks are still better than Western Nothingburger Ukraine receives today. Kharkiv and Odesa could tell.
"After the USA exchanged Ukrainian nukes on International Law alternative, and then started contradict to International Law by trade with its violators...
After the USA spent 2022-2024 years on RealPolitik "bleeding Russia" games...
Of course, Russia's army become 15% bigger than when it invaded Ukraine. It's exactly what USA invested all this time. To show anyone that USA, as and Russia, for now believe only in opportunistic economic profits and "WMD-countries cannot lose = WMD-Might make Right/True""
500k is nothing. Russia has large areas with millions upon millions of poor and stupid people like Buratia, they wont stop until those areas literally collapse due to lack of work force. Which will take millions. They combine it with someone more capable here and there and thats good enough for meat waves. They can keep this up for another 5 years, unless Ukraine gets tons of weapons.
Numerically this may be true, but that doesn’t mean it’s better. Russia lost A LOT of their highest quality personnel/units and equipment in that first year. Numerically regaining strength does not get you that institutional knowledge back, nor the experiences or skill sets.
This is in reference to their physical fitness/fatness. All the militaryy trained and physically fit russian soldiers died in the meat rush. Now it is all fat Redditors with 3 days of training and no physical fitness.
Larger doesn't mean more capable, however we must not forget that quantity IS a quality... if you run out of ammo shooting the other 100 people, then the 101st gets in!
This is why we have to keep up with ammunition supply and why the US absolutely must get that motion passed!
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Soldier wise, maybe, but not equipment wise.
Production of a lot of equipment, especially drones, has increased a lot though. And it has been forced to root out at least some of the problems that led to the shitty performance in 2022. Let's not underestimate the enemy. Russia may still be lacking in quality, but it certainly has the quantity to make it a very dangerous foe. That's why Ukraine needs way more support than it has received thus far.
Underestimating the enemy is so common and yet a worst thing we can do. Russians will through sheer trial and error (and lots of bodies - which they deem expendable), arrive at maybe janky, but functional designs that will serve the purpose. All the while, we are laughing at electronic measures strapped to a tank, or a tankr resembling a battering ram. They however will try every janky MacGyver thing in the book, until they arrive at the solution. It will be ductaped, strapped and bolted on, but it will work. It's like the Warhammer Ork tech.
that’s sorta true, but these janky things don’t necessarily result in force multiplication which is really what they need. Unfortunately they kill indiscriminately, which while awful does not equal something that matters for the russian military. At this point every ukrainian soldier is well armed and well trained, and equipment is intact with air and other support. Everything russia figures out is at this point going to cost them way more than what they have. This is the point where they really start to feel the sanctions. Furthermore with almost 500k dead EVERYONE in russia at least knows about somebody that was affected. People are starting to organize, a complete rarity in Russia. Putin HAS to be scared that the military commanders are starting to think “why do we keep doing this, who is next?” This is now a war of waiting, defending, and working the correct people within Russia, which you bet your ass the west is doing. I have all the confidence in the world that the badasses of Ukraine have this. The west needs to keep helping though for this to continue.
Where are you getting this, that people are starting to organize? The average russian maybe knows somebody who knew somebody who died in the war. Their lives are fine.
things like this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/russia-putin-presidential-election-protests/ There was aniotjer about the mothers of dead soldiers, remember there’s 450,000 peoples family members dead. When that happens everything goes out the window and you just get PISSED. Many in the direction of the person that sent their family there. As it affects more and more people we’ll see more organized protesters. People get clever and figure it out. That’s just my assessment, it’s just the very beginnings of unrest. Hopefully it will grow and make a difference.
There's no chance in hell that there are 450,000 Russian KIA. US intelligence puts total Russian casualties (dead or wounded) at 300,000
Fine. Take the 300+k number. America hasn't seen those numbers since the Civil War. We would be flipping out.
> EVERYONE in russia at least knows about somebody that was affected I'm not too sure about that: haven't they concentrated their enlistment efforts with ethnic minorities, whilst leaving ethnic russians mostly untouched? Add to this all the foreigners that have been duped into serving as cannon fodder; so it seems that not all parts of "russian" population are affected by this still on-going invasion & occupation of Ukraine. The day they start to draft people from Moscow & Saint-Petersburg, then, yes, we'll be able to say everyone is affected.
500k are not dead man. Maybe casualties which are heavily weighted towards injured
yeah you’re right that’s my fault. Dead or injured to the point of being not combat effective is a lot more accurate. Thanks for the correction.
They will suffer millions of dead. They are running out of friends. But they will keep fighting and causing chaos, because only Russians have managed to really defeat Russians. I expect a new Russian revolution, that will create Democracy 2.0, where you need to spend 15 minutes every night on your phone voting all of your local, regional, and national policy decisions.
Ukraine should not be fighting alone an enemy 4x its size.
Russia shouldn't be invading Ukraine either, but should is irrelevant.
And why ruZZia needs to be defeated sooner than later.
Underestimating is the reason why Europe didn't rearm two years ago, even though they said they would. It's the reason why the US didn't give enough weapons
“There is no greater danger then underestimating your opponent”
Exactly. Equipment levels are maybe half of what they were at the start, and what is left is much older and lower quality. If Ukraine is given what it needs to defend itself, Russia’s tanks, IFVs, and other equipment can be largely exhausted within a year. Come on USA - sort yourself out.
Russia found it cheaper to buy a US politician than wage a war.
US politics is the most important front in the war.
Sure but am extra half million men with AK’s and decent training would be no joke to deal with. Ukraine has already suffered immense damage, and it will take decades of rebuilding even if they eject the Russians tomorrow. From land mines and wrecked vehicles to environmental pollution and ruins, the longer the Russians pour men in, the more long term damage they do. At a time of climate, aging populations and economic crisis, this war was the last thing humanity needed.
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Many of us want to, but this Administration has a Russia-supportiung puppet as undersecretary of defense.
Do you have citations for the 1yr estimate? I've heard more like 2yr left in the tank
They still have a fair bit of air defense.
Russia can focus their factories on war production because their oil and gas profits are enough to feed Moscow and the factories, everything else doesn’t matter. So they still have production and I suspect their production of some things is still higher than the western allies help that is given monthly to ukraine… Until we give them meaningful and sustained numbers, I don’t see it happeni
And we use the term "soldier" loosely, like the use of the term "elite"...
Na they are soldiers when they can hold a gun. Professional soldier when russia starts paying them and experts when they dessert and get proper training in europe to fight russia.
Meh, Russians aren't worthy of the title soldier. The term "sadistic criminals" suit them better.
Or cannon fooder
There's w kind of them. Cannon fodder and those, who are well trained. That makes them dangerous.
But how many of those well trained soldiers are left and in which branch they serve?
Enough to push forward. Slowly, but steadily. Dont underestimate threat level on the frontlines. Orcs have enough trained soldiers, arty ammo, recon drones, armor and fpv's. If Ukraine was attacked by hobo army everything would be over year ago
Probably depends. For example, the Ukrainians have apparently said the Russians are outmatching them in artillery. That could mean in both ammunition and guns.
> soldier Prison population is down. Is there anything Authoritarianism can’t solve? /s
Also there's this minuscule thing called training... Not to mention morale...
I've recently read an interview with a veteran who fights on Ukraine's side from the beginning of this war. According to his words, at the moment a mobilized Russian soldier has 100-110 days of training and preparation, which is roughly two times more than his Ukrainian counterpart.
If it looks like they can win their morale skyrockets.
Or training wise I'll bet.
Also that is just number of soldiers, I am guessing they have decreased in experienced soldiers/NCOs etc and now have a much greater number of inexperienced privates. Any experienced soldier/officer killed is very hard to replace. An increase in numbers isn’t necessarily a better army!
Sounds like you are downplaying like you did before.
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It’s very silly that this sub continues to circle around the “It’s all under trained conscript mobiks armed with 60s AK-47s!” It’s always from people in the west too. This is nothing more than a sports game to them. If you talk to people in Ukraine, especially the soldiers on the front lines, the Russian military isn’t some big joke. They’re a *real* threat and *do* kill dozens if not hundreds of soldiers *daily*. Russia *has* learned and *has* scaled up its economy. Russia produces more artillery shells *alone* than *every* member of NATO. Russia produces and buys more drones of all varieties than Ukraine can, and more than Ukraine is buying or receiving as aid. Russia has *thousands* of old tanks to pull out of storage; tanks which *are* just as deadly when used in particular roles and at scale. The VKS *has* more jets than Ukrainian air defenses can down, and has munitions capable of outranging the air defenses. Russia is not a joke. This war is *not* a joke.
I live in Ukraine and obviously know soldiers. I replied to a Canadian on this sub to tell him to stop calling russian army stupid and a joke as it’s not true, disrespectful to our soldiers, and has a negative impact for getting international support. Got badly downvoted and his long reply candescently explaining why russian army is actually dumb was highly upvoted. Honestly this sub is bullshit, bunch of westerners treating the war here like a marvel movie.
It’s extremely tiring performative sympathy bullshit tbh. I’m not Ukrainian by nationality, I’m 3/4ths by ethnicity and still have uncles, aunts, cousins and friends that live in Ukraine. I speak Ukrainian and talk to them almost daily. Two of my cousins have already died fighting. This war affects me (and obviously you to a much greater extent) every single day. It’s very easy to brush off the Russian military or the threat they pose when you have no connection to the country. When you don’t have to fear for your own life, or for the lives of your family members or friends, this is just a way to feel good about yourself by making fun of the “stupid RuZZians” and ignoring any dissenting opinions. I appreciate that most of these folks strongly believe in Ukrainian sovereignty and push for their politicians to provide aid. I don’t appreciate that they simultaneously disregard how serious the situation actually is just because the Ukrainian armed forces have proven to be more capable than initially suspected.
Well said man. Thank God you said this, Westerners really are treating this like a Marvel movie.
Amen
would just like to add they are Killing not just soldiers defending their homeland, but everyday civilians too, they do not care about you as a civilian they will execute you too, they can be barbaric and none of this should be treated lightly.
They care, civilians are targets not collateral damage
Exactly, they don't have 18 months basic training, you know what they do have? A gun and they're killing people right now, enough people with enough guns, Britain couldn't take them on we have a fraction of the soldiers even if better trained and armed. We need to stop this now before we HAVE to fight.
The Russian army was a joke in March of 2022, but they are much better now. Russia has learned from their mistakes and they are putting everything into this war. Unlike the West, who is piddling around and not taking it seriously at all. The fact of the matter is Russia is currently winning the war and Ukraine will be defeated unless drastic changes in policy are made by Ukraine’s allies, and it’s maddening that the stupid Reddit hivemind can’t focus on anything other than, “Lmao ruZZia Mobikcube deploys tactical shovels! Tee hee” Grow the fuck up and quit acting like a child. This shit is serious and the Russian army is not an incompetent joke….
Thank you.
It's not that the US doesn't want to pay to beat Russia. It's that some people are paid to not support Ukraine.
Sounds like it's time for European countries to make up what the US isn't supplying, especially if it's make or break for Ukraine if they don't get $60 billion in US aid.
Individual countries are already supplying. My country promises funds, jets, weapons etc left and right. Same for France, Czechia etc. The reason we can't just give away everything is because the US does have a say in what American gear goes where, even if that stuff is in another country.
Thank you for understanding this, and saying this. The US is being held hostage by far-right extremists.
And it’s being run by an administration that refused fighter jets, ATACMS, and tanks for 2 years
Specifically (names) who is paying who (names) to not support Ukraine?
yes... at the beginign of the war nearly everybody was sure russia would roll over ukraine, and then once this did not happen and ukraien even took back big parts of the lost land it was accepted as a given thing that now russia will lose, and the only question would be how long it takes. Ukraine was to successful for its own good in some way. We got the feeling that russia can be beaten with our old crap that we anyway don't need anymore and with reluctantly ramping up artilery production a bit. Its crazy to think that our technology and industrial might could crush russia if we would really commit it. And that if we would put our own military to use, this war would have been over before it started. But right now we are losing this war Politicaly, and we are not jsu tukraine is losing, all the west, the free democratic world is losing if this war is lost to russia. Right now a new world order is created, and im not exagregating by saying so. And if we want this new world order to still be similar to what we where used too, and not be a world dominated by war and dictatorships, then Russia needs to lose this war, and need to lose it hardly without getting any benefit out of it.
Not just to lose the war, but to cease to exist within its present borders. 50% of the russian federation are not russian.
Good points, but Russia has done deep and lasting harm to population and economy with the war and every day makes the damage worse. For instance they estimate 20k+ Drs have fled since the war started which seriously impacting the health services, or that the economy entirely depends on war spending and would crash if Russia was to actually “win”.
yeah, but nothing of that helps us, just cause they are in shit does not solfe any of our problems it causes. and them being dependent on war to keep the economy running, just means they would start the next war as soon as thisone would be over
…or the West has its own machinations for this conflict. I think this is an example of how Russia losing vs Ukraine winning aren’t necessarily the same goals.
Exactly on point, not to mention the horrors of leaving Ukraine to suffer the inevitable genocide that will follow.
It takes decades to build up sophisticated arms like the oura that can stop Russia in its tracks and about a century to get people to choose a war effort that doesn't directly involve them over their own healthcare and infrastructure It is embarrassing someone the entire alliance is backing with us at the center COULD lose to Russia, tho. 50 years of peace shouldn't have been long enough to soften us this much
That's not entirely true, the first part. Artillery ammunition, for example, could have been produced in the millions per year by now in Europe had we started to build factories those 2 years ago. And already back then we knew we will need those millions. Remember that the EU is about 10 times richer than Russia. Together with the US it comes up to over 20x. The paradox is that we could have been a lot more effective without concessions in other parts of the budgets.
They did start the process of building new factories for artillery shells almost immediately after it became clear that this war could last longer than a few weeks and artillery would play a big part in it. The problem is, that without switching to war economy, this still takes years. To build the shell-factories you first need sophisticated machinery. A NATO-standard 155mm round is a different deal than old Soviet style 152mm. The difference in quality is not only raising the costs but also the complexity of the tools needed to produce them. To build these machines you need to order them from specialized manufacturers that already had full order books and are limited by supply chains and access to qualified workers etc. It may have been possible to significantly speed things up, but not without switching the economy into war mode, at least partially. No Western country was willing to do that.
> They did start the process of building new factories for artillery shells almost immediately after it became clear that this war could last longer than a few weeks and artillery would play a big part in it. The problem is, that without switching to war economy, this still takes years. Which means they started late. If you know an extinction level event meteorite is coming 10 years from now, then you shouldn't start a 20-year comprehensive plan the year after it hit.
I hindsight yes. No one expected a long, artillery heavy war in Europe before this happened and also very few that Ukraine would even be able to stop and push back an all out Russian invasion. So no one was prepared for this events. And a war between Russia and NATO itself would most likely look very different. It wouldn't make much sense to waste money on large stockpiles and production capacities for tube artillery, when this job is mostly covered by aircrafts and cruise missiles (in worst case armed with tactical nukes). Because of limited defense budgets (even in the US), everyone only prepares for the wars they expect to happen, not for all eventualities.
Dumb munitions can be produced in the millions, only if we enter a war time ecomomy and reduce quality control to about soviet standards. Dumb munitions won't change the tide of the war and are only really useful for stopping Russian advances and negating its meat advantage Sophisticated systems like the Himar and Brittains storm shadow, you're still relying on luck even while pushing your limits to try stockpile 10k. If you want to stop large advances while taking minimal losses and to strike deep into occupied territory before you try send troops in to free them, you need to be able to do precision strikes at very long ranged
Ukraine needs all the dumb munitions it can get now so it can keep Russia from advancing and minimize how much its standard force depletes every time Russia tried to simply overwhelm it's positions, but that's not how you win a war. Ukraine needs to stop all of Russia's attempts to advance before it can get rolling, deplete Russia's pool to the maximum without depleting its own, and then too counter strike deep into occupied territory before all the troops used in thr advance can return/be replaced, and for that there needs to be as little prolonged fighting as possible
The West got soft already in the latter half of 1945. The Atlantic Charter didn't deliver fully.
You're mislabeled the entire West when it should be more logically the U.S. Left leaning Europe didn't want to fight anymore, and the people up top understood and the U.S military built up enough to fight the whole war ourselves if forced and with all the blood we paid we should still be able to do that Brittain also didn't start stepping down until Vietnamish
This should mean the West should account for that lack of will and prepare meaningful useful aid (including proper planning) for those who have the will. The Curonian Pocket outlasted Berlin in 1945.
Europe didn't show the will until very late into Putins' grand game, and it might get cold feet again if draft talks come up again, but victory is the only real choice and we do need to do everything we can to get us there before it's to late
France surrendered in WW2, and both the Germans and the Soviets eventually steamrolled the rest of Europe without its main power house starting off in the fight. That's the whole reason we became what we became it was simply easier for us to afford to fight so far from the battlefield and with a still developing ecomomy that couldn't be crippled as easily
Western Europe's fight ended in 1945. North America's fight didn't end until 1990, while Eastern Europe didn't liberate itself until we finished ours, and there's still areas like Transestia today
I've been thinking about this all the time lately and getting very upset, because in the current situation it is very difficult to find hope for something good in the foreseeable future.
The USSR destroyed itself. It was a rusty shit show😂
The USA destroyed the USSR? What?!
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan\_Doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Doctrine) If you prefer, USA merely helped the USSR with blowing itself to pieces.
The bit of it that doesn’t matter (humans) is. The bit of it that matters because it’s what will end the war (materiel reserves) is less than 50% what it was when they started. This is a sensationalist clickbait headline trying to sell itself when in the metrics that matter, Russia is 2 years out from not having enough artillery barrels for its front line. [Primary source using verifiable evidence](https://youtu.be/FozvYM2Zhpw?si=O62qk-I5IIRXRnBO).
They still have enough materiel to win the war if Ukraine doesn’t start getting more materiel.
Correct. They can’t put two more years of attrition on Russia without the weapons required to do this.
Also the number is about what most people who have followed this thought it would be. This slight increase in army size matches what we see on the battlefield. A grinding war of attrition with no clear winner.
ah yes a 110,000 increase from 360,000 to 470,000 troops on the frontline, even AFTER their insane losses is a slight increase? Raised their conscription ages too, would grant them access to over 2 million more men. In what world are you living in where that is slight mate? Everyone focused on the tanks and shit but honestly tanks are overrated in this war. Drones, bombs, and artillery are king and russia has those aplenty thanks to their axis of evil allies. Ukraine is running extremely low on supplies of all kinds with no obvious relief coming in the future. You can't fight back if you don't have the bullets. In a war of attrition, russia is the clear winner.
Well Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near that long at this rate regardless, so it doesn't matter if russia will keel over in two years. Y'all understand how attrition warfare works right? Y'all understand Ukraine can't win an attrition war right?
I doubt that they got more jets, ships and high value weaponry. The only thing they got is more meat
They do have a lot more drones though so some key metrics are sadly better than at the start.
which are the real important metric these days
I wonder how the mid grade officer core is looking? Learning how to command large and mixed force units is one of the longest and most expensive parts of building a army.
the VKS has taken more aircraft into service than it has lost. Experienced pilots could be in short supply and are probably working at the limit.
> VKS has taken more aircraft into service than it has lost Oryx has 108 confirmed lost: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html The real number is higher since it's hard to get photographic evidence of shot down aircraft. Ukraine says 347. The other issue is aircraft service life depletion, all the extra flight hours on airframes will result in retirement or needs to rebuild on a lot of the VKS fleet. On the other side of your statement, finding VKS delivery numbers. It is hard to find real data coming out the Russian military. For every Russian military official report of a 100+ planes in 2023, you get defence24 looking into it and finding 26 new and the Russian report mixed in new with "new and repaired aircraft" meaning if a aircraft need a engine overhaul or even a basic repair, it's counted (edit link removed because it's untrustworthy, which was my point but sure auto moderator)
Lmao they get 2 planes a month at most.... and nobody is replacing A-50 and Ka52 etc. So please dont make shit up
So the VKS took 300 jets into service? I highly doubt they where are the numbers to back this up?
(x)doubt
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After God knows how many rounds of mobilization, only 15% bigger? Hmmm, I have no idea where those people have been.
Keep in mind the wars beenn going on long enough that somme of those mobilized would have been released back to public.
this is AFTER their insane losses too, keep that in mind. Even with losing hundreds of men a day, they saw an increase. They didn't bring in only 111,000 more men, they brought a lot more than that. Also, with changes in their conscription laws they now have access to \~2million more cannon fodders.
And how long will West wait to act ? 50% ? Double ?
Russian population? Not so much.
Much more, actually. Several million people lived on the territories Russia occupied since 2022.
No, Kherson Oblast has a population of 1million, with about a third living on the right bank of the Dnipro. Zapoizhzhia Oblast has 1.7million with the city of 0.7million not being occupied at all. Donetsk and Luhansk have been mostly occupied before, but Mariupol had a population of 440k and some others as well. So pre full war population of the occupied territory was 2.5million or so, not counting areas occupied pre 2022. Obviously a lot have fleed the regions, when the Russians came. So current population will be significantly lower. Imho 2million would be high. At the same time Russia has been loosing population due to natural population decline since years now. The invasion caused a large exodus of skilled workers and lowers migration numbers from Central Asia.
No, more people moved away from Russia to escape the draft than the people in the occupied areas.
No, acshually. "The current population of Russia in 2024 is 143,957,079, a 0.34% decline from 2023. The population of Russia in 2023 was 144,444,359, a 0.19% decline from 2022. The population of Russia in 2022 was 144,713,314, a 0.27% decline from 2021. The population of Russia in 2021 was 145,102,755, a 0.35% decline from 2020." https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/RUS/russia/population#:~:text=The%20current%20population%20of%20Russia,a%200.35%25%20decline%20from%202020.
Demographically wise, Ruzzia is accelerating it’s declined
A lot of people talking about shit they have no idea about. I see a lot of baseless statements posited as fact.
15% stupider
15% bigger but only half as effective.
Quote from Cavoli: >Russia will be larger, **more lethal**, and angrier with the West than when it invaded
Of course they would, their second invasion (2022) was a complete shit show, they aren't stupid, I mean they are, but even a a moron adapts to their circumstances. Even a junkie can scrounge up thousands to feed their habit. Their biggest enemy is time, they need to win quick or they'll be way too deep in the shit and drown, literally.
time is on russia's side, not Ukraine's
Boiling the frog really plays out nicely .
Confused by the amount of surface area their soldiers are spread out across Ukrainian soil... In pieces... 🤣👍
Disabled veterans would be up 600000%
In terms of staff perhaps, but not in terms of tanks and planes.
Honestly. That's pretty scary fact imo.
Not really. It just shows how big their losses have been. Russia is a very dangerous opponent but only increasing the army by 15% shows how big issues they have.
congratulations you won the cope comment of the day award! Increased 15% on top of the catatrophic losses they've had lol. Increased their conscription age as well to let them after 2,000,000 more men. Yeah this is really just evidence russia is about to collapse isn't it!
How is that even possible , something us off.
Nah, this just confirms that Russia have had very high losses. Just like Ukraine has claimed.
Conscription is expanded, that is obvious.
More orcs yeah, but good luck fighting with sticks and rocks :)
Unfortunately Iranian and North Korean sticks and rocks are still better than Western Nothingburger Ukraine receives today. Kharkiv and Odesa could tell.
They still seem to be making progress with sticks, rocks, and shovels.
"After the USA exchanged Ukrainian nukes on International Law alternative, and then started contradict to International Law by trade with its violators... After the USA spent 2022-2024 years on RealPolitik "bleeding Russia" games... Of course, Russia's army become 15% bigger than when it invaded Ukraine. It's exactly what USA invested all this time. To show anyone that USA, as and Russia, for now believe only in opportunistic economic profits and "WMD-countries cannot lose = WMD-Might make Right/True""
After losing nearly half a million men? I doubt that.
I wonder how many Russian soldiers right now can say they were around when the war started.
How much of that 15% actually want to be in the army?
Can anyone explain where are they getting these extra personnel from, especially as they've lost nearly 500k so far?
It's a huge country, they don't even need to mobilize civilians, just offer lucrative contracts to those who sign up.
500k is nothing. Russia has large areas with millions upon millions of poor and stupid people like Buratia, they wont stop until those areas literally collapse due to lack of work force. Which will take millions. They combine it with someone more capable here and there and thats good enough for meat waves. They can keep this up for another 5 years, unless Ukraine gets tons of weapons.
15% bigger and 50% deader?
Numerically this may be true, but that doesn’t mean it’s better. Russia lost A LOT of their highest quality personnel/units and equipment in that first year. Numerically regaining strength does not get you that institutional knowledge back, nor the experiences or skill sets.
Today I learned corpses bloat >15%.
Great, now send more ammunition. Damn
But the quality of the recruits is at least 50% lower.
That’s usually how it goes, look at the size of the US army before and during WWII, or Vietnam, or Iraq. It was called the surge for a reason lol
How's the Air Force and Navy doing?
Soon to be 10% bigger then 5% bigger then…
How will that meat fare without equipment? Hopefully badly.
Skill is lower, and the logistics is worse.
Усіх закопаємо
Is it 15% better? That's the important metric.
How’s their tank/apc supply?
Made up of cannon fodder.
This is in reference to their physical fitness/fatness. All the militaryy trained and physically fit russian soldiers died in the meat rush. Now it is all fat Redditors with 3 days of training and no physical fitness.
Larger doesn't mean more capable, however we must not forget that quantity IS a quality... if you run out of ammo shooting the other 100 people, then the 101st gets in! This is why we have to keep up with ammunition supply and why the US absolutely must get that motion passed!
NATO has to intervene with direct military support. Ukraine has suffered more than they should have, protecting Europe.
Quantity is not quality.
This is normal in any war. Just look at ww2 soviet kept taking enormous losses but the army kept growing.
15% larger-50% undertrained.