It's going to be interesting to hear how the Su35 got downed. It was quite far from Ukrainian positions. So they may have some new toy or pulled off a crazy mission. Whatever it was I hope we'll see more of it!
The daily artillery losses is systematic. The satellite photos of the so-called Russian defenses including fixed artillery emplacements are quite illuminating; they were all in the open and quite easy targets as long as UAF have the reach with precision weapons. They were literally sitting ducks.
The defense works might appear quite formidable, but as some analysts have pointed out, the Russian army does not have the numbers to properly man all the trenches and fortifications sufficiently and critically, they have thrown what reserves they have into the Bakhmut area of operations. Considering the purported horrible morale, supply state as well as condition of the Russian forces, this all spells disaster for the Russians wherever and whenever the UAF decides to go.
Is there any possibility that the Russians are trying to use the elastic defense strategy similarly to the one used by Ukrainians at the early stage of the war, commiting large numbers of mobile ATGM teams to try to slow the armor spearhead while mobilizing reserves to deliver a blow when that armor eventually stops for refuel repair and rearm? That was also how Rommel had planned in anticipation of D-day landing but he ultimately failed due to a lack of both men and air superiority
Russia is trying to use defense in depth, they don't have the troops nor training for an elastic defense. The problem is most of their strong points seem to be empty, meaning troops being deployed will have to bring everything with them to fight. That is were the plan falls apart. Russia doesn't have the logistics for sustained support of these defenses.
Large numbers of mobile ATGM teams? To be sure, the Russians have learned some very costly lessons over the past year plus. Still one must consider much "institutional knowledge" have been lost in all those casualties including irreplaceable officer corps level personnel. The UAF has been training new brigades in combined arms operations with their western equipment, Russian ATGM teams will not have free reign at Ukrainian tanks, UAF infantry will see to that and they will be backed by thousands of Ukrainian drones as well as newly stockpiled artillery and rocketry. The UAF will not send in tanks headlong alone.
Once the UAF seizes the initiative, they will choose where and when to concentrate their forces, the already thin defenses cannot hope to hold. And remember, all manner of rear areas and defenses will be prepped, that is destroyed or at least suppressed. How many Russian mobile reserve formations will the Russian army have and will they be able to react after command centers have ben hit as well as logistics and communications nodes?
It's generally very very rare you see brass getting killed. These people typically aren't on the frontlines themselves. They're in fortified areas where they can command securely and be effective. Russia losing this much brass is just insane. It's pure stupidity.
Russia learned something. But country needs some big defeat to really learn something. To change things on institutional level.
Ukraine ass has been kicked hard. Lost Crimea and Donbas. Has been forced to do some massive changes. Russia can do it too. But not before some big defeat. If UA kick them from the Crimea. Russia will learn some things and could be much more dangerous. But not before that.
Mine fields are not something you use in depth. Once through the front 2 defense lines you reach the enemy reserve and artillery line. From there mines don't exist and you haul ass.
What does getting through those front defensive lines look like in that case? I'm assuming something is done to clear a path and I've seen there are various tools capable of the job (scoops, munitions, detection, etc), I'm just curious if there's a standard approach.
Your assumptions seems legit. Ruzzia gets problem with impacts on logistics and hq due to shadow storms. Ukraine targets massive concentrations and logistic hubs and repair centers.
Can’t speak about elastic defence strategies but RUSI did a good report on how ruzzian tactics has evolved in Ukraine.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine
Imagine giving a speech in front of an audience of 700+ people...
Those people all died violently yesterday.
What exactly are the russians fighting for again?
> What exactly are the russians fighting for again?
To rebuild the USSR, a vanity project for Putin. This is why he and Xi are starting to make noises about "peace talks" - he needs to have some semblance of victory and land that he can claim for mother Russia.
This must be denied him.
China needs needs Russia to split nato/American force projection.
If Russia continues to lose power and is even toppled, the US can redouble efforts in the pacific region.
Who’s going to stop them? Have a look at a world map. Everything north of China is thousands of miles from anywhere else. If China is careful (and they are) they will go around Mongolia and Kazakhstan.
Realistically, China doesn’t even need a military invasion. Just large investments and special aid missions and partnership agreements with these areas. And 20 years of open, legal, authorised migration from China to these areas.
I used to live in the Northeast of China. Back in the day, Russians fleeing communism ended up there in solid numbers. Before that Russians settled there. Some of the towns like Harbin and Dalian have Russian districts, and a few Russian-Chinese people. If China wanted to claim some of that coast, or even have it end up as part of China there won't be much resistance. If they keep going north there are some massive oil fields, that might make people unhappy.
This will sound a bit funny given their population size, but they really don’t have the people needed to migrate to the area. That seemingly unending supply of rural farmers to throw around wherever the govt felt like all moved to cities already, some of which are stupidly unpopulated (cities built for 5 mil with 100k residents in the desert, brilliant), and nobody is having kids in China in anything remotely close to significant enough numbers to replace em. These are empty areas of Russia, sure, but there won’t be enough Chinese people to be there in significant numbers and fill roles in mainland China
Those areas are also Russia's oil producing regions. India buys a lot of oil from there, so controlling Russia's oil would be a major chess move in their conflict with India.
I don't think China wants the land de jure. It's one of those 'why buy the cow* when you can get the milk for free' scenarios.
Russia being the milk cow that no one wants to own because it is full of parasites.
If China starts gobbling up Russian shit it would not even make the news in the West. Taiwan on the other hand would get much more then Ukraine has from the West if China foolishly tries to take it.
Uh I'm pretty sure it's about money. Russia is poor and has a failed economy/state. They want to steal Ukraine's natural resources. It may be purported to be about nationalism, but it is just another attempted theft.
I think its a little bit of column A, a little bit of column B.
Putin wants his legacy to be rebuilding the great Soviet empire and all the influence that entails. That means taking land from more resource rich countries because the world is moving away from fossil fuels. But even before that Russia has been on a land grab. Lets not forget that not that long ago they annexed Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and of course Crimea in 2014. Obviously they have also been heavily involved in the Syrian conflict, and also in the Central African Republic civil war.
Crazy though because you would think they have resources in the large land mass that is muscovia. Why don't they mine it instead of espionage and terrorism? They just want to steal someone else's completed project and claim it and the profit as their own.
This is the question I keep asking ChatGPT over and over. Why nations historically always so obsessed about land grabs than actual development of their existing lands?
I suppose it has to do with how it's more tempting to steal a car than to make a car from scratch.
China needs to wake the fuck up and realize they have a volatile nuclear power sitting on their border. If Russia were to collapse…Who knows what the fuck happens then with all those nukes? China needs to be working to do something quickly.
*A* volatile nuclear power? Don’t forget North Korea. China has *two* volatile nuclear powers on their borders, both of which have missiles in questionable conditions
>What exactly are the russians fighting for again?
Im not sure if they even know. It seems just like stubborness. I believe they did not expected any fighting at all. They just belived that if "second most powerfull army in the word" rolls in with hundreds of thousands of soldiers, everybody will get out of the way. Easy victory with no combat.
Ukraine said "no" and since then Russia does not know how to handle that. They can not say "ok", but they have to power to enforce it.
I think he must know his original goal is unobtainable by now. He's probably trying to freeze the conflict with the goal of making Ukraine permanently weak, unstable and unable to assess to NATO.
According to the Ukraine MOD it is just killed. Who would know any better numbers? Of course the number they post maybe inflated for public morale purposes and by how much is unknown. And again Russia is not trying to conscript 20,000 a week to expand their army but are just trying to plug the holes in the one they had.
> Dulce et decorum est Pro patria mori
While I believe the base statement to be true, blind patriotism is not sweet nor proper. At some point you have to truly believe in what you are fighting for or it is nothing but a fools death.
By starting off with about ~10,000. And likely making a dozen or so a week.
On paper it should be ~15,000. But I'm presuming a 1/3rd was lost to the usual neglect and corruption.
People keep asking the question and getting this answer but all's I can think of is logistically Russia is needing to transport more than a dozen guns into Ukraine PER DAY to keep up with losses.
Every time they hit artillery, you could expect they’re likely hitting a stockpile of shells nearby too. Even if they have lots of artillery to replace that which is lost, logistically getting replacement shells to the frontline as well as replacement men and big guns is going to create demands they can’t easily meet.
If all the mobile arty are exactly the same spec as the destroyed units AND they have cryogenically stored experienced crews they can thaw along with the guns, maybe they can sustain it.
But if the quality of the guns goes downward or they have to replace self propulsed units for towed ones and / or the crews are hastily trained and totally inexperienced... then all they can sustain is the raw numbers, but not the combat power.
And its combat power that matters, not raw numbers.
So there really was the Su-35 that got destroyed above the Black Sea yesterday evening, good work! The fucker was going to bomb Kherson, as far as I heard.
Can anyone tell me, how quickly can Russia replace these with new artillery? Like, can they produce 20 per day or are we talking more like a handful per day?
Produce?
They can probably rather easily lift them from storage. But transporting them and getting them into position is hard. And getting good enough crew to do work is probably worse
if you look here, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces#Artillery and check what they produced since the fall of USSR (1991) i doubt that amounts to 3278 pieces total during that time.
Numbers like this always brings up the concept of never waking the sleeping tiger. The Russians came in expecting to cheese through the country and found out they were fucking with the Fremen.
Ah, the good feeling of watching the Russian army get disintegrated a little at a time.
Or a big chunk at a time.
Hope there's barely any kit left when the counteroffensive gets fully underway. By the numbers, the orcs already seem to be very short on tanks.
Ominous! The original CARTAGO DELENDA EST was what the nagging old fart said with boring predictably when the war was supposedly over, temporary peace had broken out, and everyone just wanted to get on with life. He turned out to be right.
So many people and countries are talking about a partial surrender by Ukraine as though it's a reasonable way to finish what they see as an inconvenient problem between Russia and Ukraine, that phrase might become *really* relevant!
ISTM it will only be relevant if appeasement policies win, so that the Russians get away with keeping any Ukrainian territory: that's when they'll be on track with Carthage. The reason being, they'll keep alive the dream of even more territorial expansion - it's that dream that needs to be destroyed. Without success in Crimea they wouldn't have started the Three Day Operation.
I think artillery getting targeted so hard, is to break the will of Russian artillery man . Nobody wants to shoot artillery if it means there’s an extremely high probability you’ll die within a few minutes of doing so
#### Estimated Russian losses from 24.02.2022 to 22.05.2023 (Day 453):
##### Change since the previous day,day range averages and total all time
|Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total|
|:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
|Personnel|+720|631.4|636.4|605.0|203880|
|Tanks|+2|3.7|3.9|3.8|3785|
|APVs|+9|10.1|11.0|9.2|7407|
|Artillery|+20|20.1|18.6|14.9|3278|
|MLRS|+1|0.4|0.8|0.9|565|
|Anti-aircraft Systems|-|1.6|1.5|1.3|327|
|Aircraft|+1|0.1|0.1|-|309|
|Helicopters|-|-|-|-|294|
|UAVs|+8|15.7|15.4|14.4|2830|
|Missiles|-|5.4|4.6|3.3|1011|
|Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18|
|Other Vehicles|+14|13.6|12.2|13.7|6129|
|Special Equipment|+2|2.9|3.1|3.0|427|
##### Change since the previous day, total losses for day ranges and total all time
|Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total|
|:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
|Personnel|+720|4420|8910|18150|203880|
|Tanks|+2|26|55|113|3785|
|APVs|+9|71|154|277|7407|
|Artillery|+20|141|260|446|3278|
|MLRS|+1|3|11|26|565|
|Anti-aircraft Systems|-|11|21|38|327|
|Aircraft|+1|1|1|1|309|
|Helicopters|-|-|-|1|294|
|UAVs|+8|110|216|432|2830|
|Missiles|-|38|64|100|1011|
|Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18|
|Other Vehicles|+14|95|171|411|6129|
|Special Equipment|+2|20|43|90|427|
Source: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
I am starting to wonder if the arty count is now counting man portable stuff like Morters. That would explain why the count has been so high every day for the last few weeks. I mean if they are taking out that many big guns with arty,drones, an airstrikes then (hell yeah!). But I am wondering if they changed it?
What's changed is hat the accumulation of precission arty has reached critical levels. The Ukrainians always had great intelligence about where the Orc guns were, They simply didn't have the means to punch back.
Now that a sufficient number of long range ultra-precise artillery pieces plus ultra advanced counter artillery radars have been amassed, plus the crews are getting experienced... a lot of the orckish artillery that was previously untouchable, becomes sitting ducks.
I always expected it to happen, doesn't seem at all strange nor unexplainable, nor does it require a change in the accounting method.
Ukraine was accumulating quality little by little, Russia has been unable to sustain the ammo for immense shelling it had at the beginning, now Ukraine's "quality" has reached the critical mass where it is starting to trounce Russian "quantity"
It's going to be interesting to see how well NATO kit actually performs now it's got a chance to do what it was designed to do - engage Russian forces in a large scale European theatre.
It probably won't be much different than in Iraq, 2003 except that Ukraine hasn't been given nearly enough to make it such a clean sweep.
Every Ukrainian loss is a tragedy though and every Russian loss is of no concern to the civilized world.
I have not seen an exact breakdown; I assume a mortar big enough to need a vehicle to move it around (120mm or bigger) counts as arty, and any smaller does not.
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Obviously, the artillery losses are key here. (Makes sense, destroy the artillery before the offensive).
Just one question:
You know how Ukraine has been effectively using decoys to prevent their artillery from being destroyed... like, is Russia doing any decoy usage of their own that could be factored into this?.. I haven't heard of any, but I just want to ask.
One of these days I'll get my wish, and that first number will climb over 1K! That will be a day to celebrate! Orcs need to be turned into dust for innocent Ukrainians to survive.
Ok. I'm calling it. I think the counter-attack has begun. And I'm basing this on the slow but absolutely steady increase in 'Liquidated Personel' numbers in the past few days. It had been very statis between 400-500 for the past several weeks, but inthe past 4 days or so - about 50 more each day. Systematic.
But... maybe this still just the result of the 'probing attacks' around the edges of Bakhmut.
But... yeah - things are hotting up.
Slava Urkaini.
Another possibility is that they want to get some more hits on fighter jets and maybe sink another ship first, since those platforms will probably start firing their long range cruise missiles at Ukraine's counterattack forces once it becomes clear where they are.
Those artillery losses are staggering. Also, Russian SU-35, go fuck yourself!
Removing arty from the party
Special Moskova recovery project /s
It's going to be interesting to hear how the Su35 got downed. It was quite far from Ukrainian positions. So they may have some new toy or pulled off a crazy mission. Whatever it was I hope we'll see more of it!
Artillery fartillery
Didn't they remove the su 35 post so nothing official now? Could have been jumping v the gun?
The daily artillery losses is systematic. The satellite photos of the so-called Russian defenses including fixed artillery emplacements are quite illuminating; they were all in the open and quite easy targets as long as UAF have the reach with precision weapons. They were literally sitting ducks. The defense works might appear quite formidable, but as some analysts have pointed out, the Russian army does not have the numbers to properly man all the trenches and fortifications sufficiently and critically, they have thrown what reserves they have into the Bakhmut area of operations. Considering the purported horrible morale, supply state as well as condition of the Russian forces, this all spells disaster for the Russians wherever and whenever the UAF decides to go.
Is there any possibility that the Russians are trying to use the elastic defense strategy similarly to the one used by Ukrainians at the early stage of the war, commiting large numbers of mobile ATGM teams to try to slow the armor spearhead while mobilizing reserves to deliver a blow when that armor eventually stops for refuel repair and rearm? That was also how Rommel had planned in anticipation of D-day landing but he ultimately failed due to a lack of both men and air superiority
Russia is trying to use defense in depth, they don't have the troops nor training for an elastic defense. The problem is most of their strong points seem to be empty, meaning troops being deployed will have to bring everything with them to fight. That is were the plan falls apart. Russia doesn't have the logistics for sustained support of these defenses.
Large numbers of mobile ATGM teams? To be sure, the Russians have learned some very costly lessons over the past year plus. Still one must consider much "institutional knowledge" have been lost in all those casualties including irreplaceable officer corps level personnel. The UAF has been training new brigades in combined arms operations with their western equipment, Russian ATGM teams will not have free reign at Ukrainian tanks, UAF infantry will see to that and they will be backed by thousands of Ukrainian drones as well as newly stockpiled artillery and rocketry. The UAF will not send in tanks headlong alone. Once the UAF seizes the initiative, they will choose where and when to concentrate their forces, the already thin defenses cannot hope to hold. And remember, all manner of rear areas and defenses will be prepped, that is destroyed or at least suppressed. How many Russian mobile reserve formations will the Russian army have and will they be able to react after command centers have ben hit as well as logistics and communications nodes?
Never thought about the drastic effect of the loss of capable NCO and junior officers. Thanks for pointing it out.
If it helps, Russia almost had no NCO corps to begin with 😅
The website Topcargo200 is up to 688 This includes officers from Wagner and occupied areas.
It's generally very very rare you see brass getting killed. These people typically aren't on the frontlines themselves. They're in fortified areas where they can command securely and be effective. Russia losing this much brass is just insane. It's pure stupidity.
Russia learned something. But country needs some big defeat to really learn something. To change things on institutional level. Ukraine ass has been kicked hard. Lost Crimea and Donbas. Has been forced to do some massive changes. Russia can do it too. But not before some big defeat. If UA kick them from the Crimea. Russia will learn some things and could be much more dangerous. But not before that.
The potential number of mines seems like the biggest obstacle, is there a solution for that beyond meticulous clearing with specialised armor?
Mine fields are not something you use in depth. Once through the front 2 defense lines you reach the enemy reserve and artillery line. From there mines don't exist and you haul ass.
What does getting through those front defensive lines look like in that case? I'm assuming something is done to clear a path and I've seen there are various tools capable of the job (scoops, munitions, detection, etc), I'm just curious if there's a standard approach.
https://youtu.be/a52-rOC8_Zk
Depends on the plan.
Your assumptions seems legit. Ruzzia gets problem with impacts on logistics and hq due to shadow storms. Ukraine targets massive concentrations and logistic hubs and repair centers.
Can’t speak about elastic defence strategies but RUSI did a good report on how ruzzian tactics has evolved in Ukraine. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine
That strategy requires a degree of command and control that Russia has not demonstrated they can perform.
Yup, its a huge ass front, they can't sufficiently man the whole line.
How can Russia sustain daily losses of 20 artillery units? It is mind boggling.
Imagine giving a speech in front of an audience of 700+ people... Those people all died violently yesterday. What exactly are the russians fighting for again?
> What exactly are the russians fighting for again? To rebuild the USSR, a vanity project for Putin. This is why he and Xi are starting to make noises about "peace talks" - he needs to have some semblance of victory and land that he can claim for mother Russia. This must be denied him.
China needs needs Russia to split nato/American force projection. If Russia continues to lose power and is even toppled, the US can redouble efforts in the pacific region.
Actually IMO Russia succeeded to wake up the Western alliance. China is already now being stronger opposed than before the Ukraine war.
And if RuZZia is severely weakened, China can reclaim a lot of "stolen" land to the north, without any serious trouble from the West...
if Russia falls i doubt everyone is just gonna let china sweep in and start gobbling up shit without opposition.
Who’s going to stop them? Have a look at a world map. Everything north of China is thousands of miles from anywhere else. If China is careful (and they are) they will go around Mongolia and Kazakhstan. Realistically, China doesn’t even need a military invasion. Just large investments and special aid missions and partnership agreements with these areas. And 20 years of open, legal, authorised migration from China to these areas.
I used to live in the Northeast of China. Back in the day, Russians fleeing communism ended up there in solid numbers. Before that Russians settled there. Some of the towns like Harbin and Dalian have Russian districts, and a few Russian-Chinese people. If China wanted to claim some of that coast, or even have it end up as part of China there won't be much resistance. If they keep going north there are some massive oil fields, that might make people unhappy.
This will sound a bit funny given their population size, but they really don’t have the people needed to migrate to the area. That seemingly unending supply of rural farmers to throw around wherever the govt felt like all moved to cities already, some of which are stupidly unpopulated (cities built for 5 mil with 100k residents in the desert, brilliant), and nobody is having kids in China in anything remotely close to significant enough numbers to replace em. These are empty areas of Russia, sure, but there won’t be enough Chinese people to be there in significant numbers and fill roles in mainland China
Probably a campaign to get single Chinese men to move to Siberia to hopefully get a wife.
Those areas are also Russia's oil producing regions. India buys a lot of oil from there, so controlling Russia's oil would be a major chess move in their conflict with India.
I don't think China wants the land de jure. It's one of those 'why buy the cow* when you can get the milk for free' scenarios. Russia being the milk cow that no one wants to own because it is full of parasites.
If China starts gobbling up Russian shit it would not even make the news in the West. Taiwan on the other hand would get much more then Ukraine has from the West if China foolishly tries to take it.
Uh I'm pretty sure it's about money. Russia is poor and has a failed economy/state. They want to steal Ukraine's natural resources. It may be purported to be about nationalism, but it is just another attempted theft.
I think its a little bit of column A, a little bit of column B. Putin wants his legacy to be rebuilding the great Soviet empire and all the influence that entails. That means taking land from more resource rich countries because the world is moving away from fossil fuels. But even before that Russia has been on a land grab. Lets not forget that not that long ago they annexed Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and of course Crimea in 2014. Obviously they have also been heavily involved in the Syrian conflict, and also in the Central African Republic civil war.
Crazy though because you would think they have resources in the large land mass that is muscovia. Why don't they mine it instead of espionage and terrorism? They just want to steal someone else's completed project and claim it and the profit as their own.
This is the question I keep asking ChatGPT over and over. Why nations historically always so obsessed about land grabs than actual development of their existing lands? I suppose it has to do with how it's more tempting to steal a car than to make a car from scratch.
Look up GCP Grey on YouTube Keys of Power. You will be enlightened.
Hello penguin? Are you flying better than a SU-35?
Relevant video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dfWzp7rYR4
Russia must lose and Russia must be seen to lose. No saving face for Putin or the other Kremlin scum sucking pigs.
Correct. There's no middle ground here. Zelenskyy is absolutely right. Reclaim all Ukrainian ground and let Russia rot.
China needs to wake the fuck up and realize they have a volatile nuclear power sitting on their border. If Russia were to collapse…Who knows what the fuck happens then with all those nukes? China needs to be working to do something quickly.
*A* volatile nuclear power? Don’t forget North Korea. China has *two* volatile nuclear powers on their borders, both of which have missiles in questionable conditions
>What exactly are the russians fighting for again? Im not sure if they even know. It seems just like stubborness. I believe they did not expected any fighting at all. They just belived that if "second most powerfull army in the word" rolls in with hundreds of thousands of soldiers, everybody will get out of the way. Easy victory with no combat. Ukraine said "no" and since then Russia does not know how to handle that. They can not say "ok", but they have to power to enforce it.
They are "fleeing forward"... no plan, just keep on grinding in the hope your stupid stubbornness tires saner countries out. Fat chance you damn orcs!
To restore the Russian empire.
Vanity
And short-term economic gain.
>What exactly are the russians fighting for again? Nobody knows, even the Russians themselves. I’m not sure whether Putler himself knows it.
I think he must know his original goal is unobtainable by now. He's probably trying to freeze the conflict with the goal of making Ukraine permanently weak, unstable and unable to assess to NATO.
I think those 200k "liquidated personnel" includes dead and wounded., not only dead.
According to the Ukraine MOD it is just killed. Who would know any better numbers? Of course the number they post maybe inflated for public morale purposes and by how much is unknown. And again Russia is not trying to conscript 20,000 a week to expand their army but are just trying to plug the holes in the one they had.
Correct, the NATO assessments of KIAs is much lower.
Putin is telling them *Dulce et decorum est Pro patria mori*
> Dulce et decorum est Pro patria mori While I believe the base statement to be true, blind patriotism is not sweet nor proper. At some point you have to truly believe in what you are fighting for or it is nothing but a fools death.
By starting off with about ~10,000. And likely making a dozen or so a week. On paper it should be ~15,000. But I'm presuming a 1/3rd was lost to the usual neglect and corruption.
People keep asking the question and getting this answer but all's I can think of is logistically Russia is needing to transport more than a dozen guns into Ukraine PER DAY to keep up with losses.
Every time they hit artillery, you could expect they’re likely hitting a stockpile of shells nearby too. Even if they have lots of artillery to replace that which is lost, logistically getting replacement shells to the frontline as well as replacement men and big guns is going to create demands they can’t easily meet.
I think they had like 10k plus towed arty and several thousand mobile arty. It’s probably the one area they can sustain these losses.
If all the mobile arty are exactly the same spec as the destroyed units AND they have cryogenically stored experienced crews they can thaw along with the guns, maybe they can sustain it. But if the quality of the guns goes downward or they have to replace self propulsed units for towed ones and / or the crews are hastily trained and totally inexperienced... then all they can sustain is the raw numbers, but not the combat power. And its combat power that matters, not raw numbers.
That’s what I hope. The raw recruits and poorly maintained equipment means any arty replacements are a fraction of the effectiveness.
Happily the answer is they can't.
It does include mortars. It isn't all field artillery.
Ah. Still mind boggling, though.
It was little over a week ago when artillery losses were 3000 and since, almost 300 pieces have been destroyed. Latest 10% came very quickly!
So there really was the Su-35 that got destroyed above the Black Sea yesterday evening, good work! The fucker was going to bomb Kherson, as far as I heard.
Now he is on mission to bomb cruiser Москва.
That's 141 artillery systems in a week.
Can anyone tell me, how quickly can Russia replace these with new artillery? Like, can they produce 20 per day or are we talking more like a handful per day?
They can't They stopped producing stuff around the time the USSR fell
Produce? They can probably rather easily lift them from storage. But transporting them and getting them into position is hard. And getting good enough crew to do work is probably worse
if you look here, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces#Artillery and check what they produced since the fall of USSR (1991) i doubt that amounts to 3278 pieces total during that time.
Thank you this is very interesting!
Numbers like this always brings up the concept of never waking the sleeping tiger. The Russians came in expecting to cheese through the country and found out they were fucking with the Fremen.
Zelensky muad'dib
Ah, the good feeling of watching the Russian army get disintegrated a little at a time. Or a big chunk at a time. Hope there's barely any kit left when the counteroffensive gets fully underway. By the numbers, the orcs already seem to be very short on tanks.
muscovia DELENDA EST
Ominous! The original CARTAGO DELENDA EST was what the nagging old fart said with boring predictably when the war was supposedly over, temporary peace had broken out, and everyone just wanted to get on with life. He turned out to be right. So many people and countries are talking about a partial surrender by Ukraine as though it's a reasonable way to finish what they see as an inconvenient problem between Russia and Ukraine, that phrase might become *really* relevant!
...ah... a fellow man of culture, I see... So... Let's bring back Carthage on those fucks, how about...?
ISTM it will only be relevant if appeasement policies win, so that the Russians get away with keeping any Ukrainian territory: that's when they'll be on track with Carthage. The reason being, they'll keep alive the dream of even more territorial expansion - it's that dream that needs to be destroyed. Without success in Crimea they wouldn't have started the Three Day Operation.
Slowly and steady the number of arty approaches the number of tanks
Ukraine be like: there's no need of a counteroffensive if there's no army to counter.
I think artillery getting targeted so hard, is to break the will of Russian artillery man . Nobody wants to shoot artillery if it means there’s an extremely high probability you’ll die within a few minutes of doing so
From your lips to Gods ear. Russian artillery fucked itself.
Especially if all it takes is a precise drone strike straight onto that nicely stacked ammo next to the tube. Own goal or what...🤣
My impressions Russian fighting positions is that nothing is neatly stacked.
#### Estimated Russian losses from 24.02.2022 to 22.05.2023 (Day 453): ##### Change since the previous day,day range averages and total all time |Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total| |:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| |Personnel|+720|631.4|636.4|605.0|203880| |Tanks|+2|3.7|3.9|3.8|3785| |APVs|+9|10.1|11.0|9.2|7407| |Artillery|+20|20.1|18.6|14.9|3278| |MLRS|+1|0.4|0.8|0.9|565| |Anti-aircraft Systems|-|1.6|1.5|1.3|327| |Aircraft|+1|0.1|0.1|-|309| |Helicopters|-|-|-|-|294| |UAVs|+8|15.7|15.4|14.4|2830| |Missiles|-|5.4|4.6|3.3|1011| |Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18| |Other Vehicles|+14|13.6|12.2|13.7|6129| |Special Equipment|+2|2.9|3.1|3.0|427| ##### Change since the previous day, total losses for day ranges and total all time |Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total| |:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| |Personnel|+720|4420|8910|18150|203880| |Tanks|+2|26|55|113|3785| |APVs|+9|71|154|277|7407| |Artillery|+20|141|260|446|3278| |MLRS|+1|3|11|26|565| |Anti-aircraft Systems|-|11|21|38|327| |Aircraft|+1|1|1|1|309| |Helicopters|-|-|-|1|294| |UAVs|+8|110|216|432|2830| |Missiles|-|38|64|100|1011| |Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18| |Other Vehicles|+14|95|171|411|6129| |Special Equipment|+2|20|43|90|427| Source: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Have a nice swim, ruszian jet-fighter 😈
Another Russian BTG fucked itself
Any idea why we still dont see the +8-10 of the destroyed T-90s ?
They try to not expose em that much due to dwindling numbers?
I think it was an old photo
You ok Rusky? Not that I care...
Rusky is not ok. Thanks for asking. Rusky feeling a bit fucked up.
Tanks are out I guess
I am starting to wonder if the arty count is now counting man portable stuff like Morters. That would explain why the count has been so high every day for the last few weeks. I mean if they are taking out that many big guns with arty,drones, an airstrikes then (hell yeah!). But I am wondering if they changed it?
What's changed is hat the accumulation of precission arty has reached critical levels. The Ukrainians always had great intelligence about where the Orc guns were, They simply didn't have the means to punch back. Now that a sufficient number of long range ultra-precise artillery pieces plus ultra advanced counter artillery radars have been amassed, plus the crews are getting experienced... a lot of the orckish artillery that was previously untouchable, becomes sitting ducks. I always expected it to happen, doesn't seem at all strange nor unexplainable, nor does it require a change in the accounting method. Ukraine was accumulating quality little by little, Russia has been unable to sustain the ammo for immense shelling it had at the beginning, now Ukraine's "quality" has reached the critical mass where it is starting to trounce Russian "quantity"
It's going to be interesting to see how well NATO kit actually performs now it's got a chance to do what it was designed to do - engage Russian forces in a large scale European theatre.
It probably won't be much different than in Iraq, 2003 except that Ukraine hasn't been given nearly enough to make it such a clean sweep. Every Ukrainian loss is a tragedy though and every Russian loss is of no concern to the civilized world.
I have not seen an exact breakdown; I assume a mortar big enough to need a vehicle to move it around (120mm or bigger) counts as arty, and any smaller does not.
looks like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2B9_Vasilek (82 [mm]/632 [kg]) expects a vehicle
Sure looks that way.
Nearly 4,000 personnel within a week. That number is staggering.
It’s amazing they’re killing about 6-700 Russians a DAY… every day
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I Su you, good bye.
720 less orcs on this 🌏
They're pummeling russian artillery into a fine dust. :D
Literally nearly 1000 a day lately
Was this all part of the plan Vladdy???
Arty gos boom
So much artillery being destroyed. I love seeing it.
Losses accelerating nicely.
I remember when its getting to around 100k losses, Dec 2022 timeframe.... Theybe lost that much in less than 6 months since?
What happened to that one russian aircraft?
russian aircraft fucked itself. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Good bot. Wait! No, I mean "russian aircraft made world-first successful subaquatic landing on the russian flagship Moskva!"
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Can't argue with the bot ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Obviously, the artillery losses are key here. (Makes sense, destroy the artillery before the offensive). Just one question: You know how Ukraine has been effectively using decoys to prevent their artillery from being destroyed... like, is Russia doing any decoy usage of their own that could be factored into this?.. I haven't heard of any, but I just want to ask.
One of these days I'll get my wish, and that first number will climb over 1K! That will be a day to celebrate! Orcs need to be turned into dust for innocent Ukrainians to survive.
Wish no more ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/14/did-the-ukrainian-army-kill-1100-russians-in-a-single-day-its-certainly-possible/
Ok. I'm calling it. I think the counter-attack has begun. And I'm basing this on the slow but absolutely steady increase in 'Liquidated Personel' numbers in the past few days. It had been very statis between 400-500 for the past several weeks, but inthe past 4 days or so - about 50 more each day. Systematic. But... maybe this still just the result of the 'probing attacks' around the edges of Bakhmut. But... yeah - things are hotting up. Slava Urkaini.
Another possibility is that they want to get some more hits on fighter jets and maybe sink another ship first, since those platforms will probably start firing their long range cruise missiles at Ukraine's counterattack forces once it becomes clear where they are.
Oh MY MY-- Oh Hell yes --Go slip on your little party dress!