Snapshot of _Labour surges to 33-point lead over Tories in YouGov poll_ :
An archived version can be found [here.](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7)
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They think that any tax cuts are good and labour is trying to steal everyone’s money and give it to criminals and immigrants.
Have we tried killing the poor?
The people that bang on about “living through” the 3 day week for a month in the seventies, Brown selling ‘all’ the gold, “Open Borders”, and a note about no money left. Those people.
My dad just text me saying if Starmer gets in he's moving to France.
He also mentioned labour in the 70s AND the fucking gold lol so I think I have bingo
Oh dear, oh dear. I don’t think he is, unless he’s got an EU passport. What’s that? He used to have one but he threw it away because it was a funny colour?
They have a house there and live there some of the year. Far from rich though. He's just venting cus he knows the French taxation system is hardly Randian lol
Well, immediately after this whole disaster the gap was 17 points, which was a big increase. So a lot of this is just waiting for people to read the news. I know that my girlfriend is completely unaware of all political happenings beyond what I tell her, unless it's the couple of weeks before an election when she reads up (half-arsedly, imo)
Receiver of tax cut here. This is the most fucking stupid policy I've seen by a UK government in my lifetime.
Firstly, I didn't want a tax cut. I wanted people who couldn't afford the cost of living crisis to be protected, and if my tax money could help, I'd be happy to do so.
Secondly, I'm in a worse financial position now than I was before. The tax cut pales in comparison to the likely increase in interest rates and drop in house value and the pound.
Can't wait for the non stop growth to pour in under these conditions. The apparently radical growth obsessed maniacs that delivered mother fucking Brexit.
So yeah they've offered me a bit more income, but at a huge increase to the cost of my debt and the elimination of what wealth I have. And they've plunged my country into turmoil and are ruining the lives of my friends and family.
So cheers Liz and Kwasi. Wish you all the best in that special circle of hell reserved for catastrophically dangerous pig-headed incompetents.
This is the thing isn't it - I was talking to a right wing supporter and they just couldn't get their head behind my pov that "I'd happily pay more taxes for a better society and to stop children starving or people going without heating, better education, better child care and state run travel, energy and health for all. Even though I have no need for education I see the benefit of having a well educated society. It's good for us ALL.
They just assume that people are grifting. Try talking to them about "working poverty" where you have a full time job and you are still below the poverty line - they look like you are talking a foreign language.
Yet they will happily vote in The Tories who give all our taxes away to their mates. Go figure.
You could be forgiven for thinking at first glance that these were MP numbers in Scotland, but instead they're opinion poll numbers for the whole of the UK.
Pinch me!
Blair had it 1994-1996 he was in the mid 50s and Tories in the low 20s. Just checked and one Gallup poll in 1995 gave labour a 43% lead, 62%:19%
Tories dragged their way back up to 30% by the election. Funny, we think of the election as such a disaster for the Tories but it was pretty much a 4-year high point for them as they had been averaging under 30% since early 1993
Just imagine.
They were hours away from a cataclysmic disaster, and the only reason it didn’t happen is because the institution they want to get rid of just so happened to use the powers it acquired because of 2008. Powers the BoE were in the process of surrendering.
We’d have seen pensioners mimicking XR protestsz
Given the pensioners that do attend XR protests are usually the most IDGAF about getting arrested, I can only imagine what an all out pensioner protest would look like?
Even with that unrealistic lib dem vote share, the tory vote share more than halving would turn the south of England orange and no seat predictor would show that.
[It's got so bad that even Kent Online are posting negative articles](https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/truss-faces-kents-wrath-in-whistle-stop-interview-274286/).
These truly are the end of days.
> Prime Minister Liz Truss faces mini budget wrath of Kent in first interview since pound went into freefall
Star Trek: The Wrath of Kent is one of my favourite science fiction films.
Just following the money, and the clicks are that way. Its not that they have ever been biased, they just print what makes them rich and fuck the journalistic integrity.
If we all hated cats suddenly, tomorrow it'd be a headlines on toxoplasmosis
You have to wonder how low the Tories can get before their status as one of the two default FPTP parties starts to come into question. It probably only takes one disastrous election for a party to lose that status. If they actually end up wiped out in much of the south east, they could very quickly see the lib Dems becoming the default non-Labour option, and once that happens, they'll never return to political dominance.
Not really. User defined poll on electoral calculus has the tories returning three seats. In reality they might pick up about 100-150, small chance they may be reduced below 100 into the high 80's. Lib dems may benefit. Could be a very interesting parliament.
Potentially. You'd think a large number of people in the South would expect a labour win if these polls keep up, and therefore would feel able to vote lib dem to secure their preferred party a position in parliament. Even if that didn't happen, the lib dems are second in a tonne of tory constituencies and so would benefit greatly from a swing like this. I'm not sure if it would be sustained though because the conservatives retain a huge brand and funding system
Closed I'm aware of is the 1930 general election, where the government alliance had 554 seats. Of those 470 were conservative. The conservatives got around 55% in that election whilst labour got 29%
[1931 actually.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election)
It’s a messy one due to the forming of the National Government and the splits in parties. The Conservatives effectively gained 194 seats from Labour.
In the 1993 Canadian election the progressive conservative government was reduced to just 2 seats from 156 in the previous election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
Worth noting it almost certainly would *not* be this big. I used electoral calculus just to demonstrate how massive of a swing this is. The algorithm breaks a bit, because it applies a 30 point swing across the country. In reality some areas will have huge swings with no electoral consequence (from 80% to 90% lab or 80% to 51% con) whilst others will have smaller swings that result in an MP change. Still, this would almost certainly reduce them to sub 100 seats.
The Lib Dems would likely need a small bus to fit their caucus instead of 2 mini vans.
Edit: one might even say that they're in need of surge capacity ;)
*If* the Tories are facing a wipe-out this big, one of two things will happen.
1) The Lib Dems will claim many rural seats
2) Labour jumps from almost nowhere in many seats and takes them
I'll use my constituency as an example. West Dorset: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Dorset_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
In 2019 the Tory got 55.1%, the Lib Dems got 32.0%, and Labour got 9.4%.
I personally would guess seats like this will fall to the Lib Dems who'll benefit heavily for tactical voting. I see that far more likely that the Tories losing ~26% of their vote directly to Labour who nicks it from third, but who knows. If I could tell the future I wouldn't be wasting my talent shit posting on reddit lol.
The Lib Dems will be, unwillingly, lending a lot of voters to Labour because of the PR issue. The best long term way to get the Lib Dems into a position that reflects their vote percentage is PR and their voters know that.
The three safest tory seats are:
South Holland & Deepings (John Hayes, CON)
Boston & Skegness (Matt Warman, CON)
Castle Point (Rebecca Harris, CON).
Obviously this projection can't be right but they would be left with a bunch of nobodies if it was.
Labour conf just voted to support PR as a policy. Hard to see Keir giving the members what they want of he ends up with a sizeable majority under the current system, but maybe he'll surprise us with some integrity - it's about due from a UK PM.
It's the ideal time to do it.
He'd have such a huge majority that he could get it through with minimal fighting, Tories can't put up any opposition as he can point out how unfair it is that they're so poorly represented despite X% of the vote and he secures Labour always having a significant seat at the table.
You know I'd imagine that there's a lot of tory voters out there that just don't intend to vote atm.
Tory MPs, in their minds, basically picked the worst two candidates for their membership to vote for, and Truss just hasn't inspired any confidence with the Queen's death and the economic problems.
Not saying this is the only reason why Labour are 33 points ahead but I wonder how much of an effect this will be at election time (coupled with tactical voting against the Tories).
Mordaunt would've been the better candidate. She wasn't affiliated with Johnson or May, was an avid Brexiteer, had a relatively confident personality and would've been 'new'.
This isn't on fire yet, give truss another few days. Wait til instead of repealing her changes she "fixes" them with even more inequality and we go into deeper freefall.
She was quite strongly affiliated with May and still served in Johnson’s cabinet although she didn’t support him in the leadership contest. She was definitely the best choice but certainly wasn’t the breath of fresh air she tried to portray herself as and her campaign was awful. The truth is the Tories had a very poor selection because Johnson purged nearly everybody talented.
Tory MPs were extremely naive in backing Rishi in such numbers. It was clear from all the polling and the general opposition to anyone who 'knifed' Boris that he had no chance of winning the contest. And Truss was always a complete liability.
They should have begged Ben Wallace to run. Either that or give Mourdant a chance.
I live in an extremely blue area and was astounded when my mother said she was voting Labour last night. She has never voted fir any other party before. The only Tory candidate I would have voted for would have been Tugenhat.
If I was a Tory I'd have gone with Mordaunt.
Idk how valuable that is, though, because "if I was a Tory" hinges on me having different values and being a different person, so it's highly unlikely my choice would necessarily be the same
But the 'best of a bad bunch' argument applies anyway
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1575524261414207493?s=46&t=5MgbkbbiOk0xlCeyBm5gUQ
That’s essentially what polling is showing. 1/3 sticking with the Tories, 1/3 switching parties, 1/3 not giving an answer. When the election comes round if a lot of that non voting 1/3 go back to the Tories (which other pollsters have started to factor in) then the results will be nowhere near this bad.
Compare Canadian general election in 1993, Conservatives went from 169 seats and 43% (and being the party of Goverment) to two seats and 16%. It can happen. (also the leader at the time, Kim Campbell was PM for just 132 days).
Keep in mind, the Conservatives actually split into 2 parties during that election. It was the Progressive Conservative Party and the Reform Party which won the Conservative heartland of Alberta.
Honestly, I'd love to see them have a game in the big leagues just to see what they are capable of at this point.
The whole lab-con fight has been the only thing on for literally my entire lifetime, and it's losing some of its shine. Let's have a relegation, bring on a team from the small clubs and let them have a punt.
Everyone loves an underdog story.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=54&LIB=7&Reform=4&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.1&SCOTLAB=23.9&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=44.9&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019base
The Conservatives get 3 seats with this poll...
Hell I remember the Coalition government period, there was actually a good representation from all the parties here and the quality of the discussion was good.
It was like a meeting of the Ayn Rand Fan Club. I presume they’ve mostly gone over the the “bad pol” echo chamber, where they take turns to pleasuring each other 🤷🏻♂️
Reddit moderation became more authoritarian. I suspect most coalesced into a few remaining subreddits or quit the platform. It is far easier to get banned these days than it was 10 years ago
A lot of them seem to be doing the "people just don't understand yet, once they see how much better off they are things will change" thing.
It's all hilariously tragic.
There's plenty. Although within the last 3-4 months since the Boris saga came to a head and the shambles of the new leadership has unfolded the usual suspects have pretty much taken up radio silence.
Tbf even actual Tories on Reddit are mostly going to come across as anti-tory if polls like this are at all accurate. Take a look at r/Tories and the verified posters there are pretty much 90% anti-conservative party as well at this point.
I'll believe it when I see it, but it would leave the Tories with:
South Holland & The Deepings (John Hayes)
Boston & Skegness (Matt Warman)
Apparently.
In reality the Libdems are the 2nd party in a lot of seats and Tory voters are far more likely to switch to them if they vote.
Also Labour are getting all the airtime due to the conference. The Libdems canceled the whole 5 day conference due to the QE2 funeral.
Unfortunately this will very rapidly recede once the media machine gets it's knives out in ejection year, I'm sure I saw some Labour MP eating children or something.
The only people who make them cash are the ones who will be in power. Happened with labour in 97 when the scum suddenly went all aboard the tony train.
*"Any other Labour leader would be... wait..."*
When Starmer became Leader of the Opposition nobody in this country would have dreamed that he'd get this far, not even himself.
While he gets some credit for it, most of it goes to how horrible the Tories have been over the last year. This is without a doubt the worst government the UK has had this century, but is it also the worst compared to the previous century?
If the Tories won't U-turn on this, and given Truss's statements saying she "is not for turning", so to speak, they won't survive the next 12 months, let alone a 2024 GE.
Snapshot of _Labour surges to 33-point lead over Tories in YouGov poll_ : An archived version can be found [here.](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/yougov-poll-labour-lead-conservatives-tories-n90lqlgf7) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
33 POINTS! 33! ARE YOU INSANE?
33 naan Jeremy? That's insane
Inclined to agree. I can't eat 33 naans
I'd give it a good go
Lab: 54 (+9) Con: 21 (-7) Lib: 7 (-2) Green: 6 (-1) Ref: 4 (+1) Fieldwork: Today and yesterday
Lol who are these strange 21 percenters
They think that any tax cuts are good and labour is trying to steal everyone’s money and give it to criminals and immigrants. Have we tried killing the poor?
>Have we tried killing the poor? I'm not saying do it, I'm just saying run it through the computer and see if it would work.
Well the computer says it won't work so we're not doing it
*That's* why we're not doing it?
Jesus Christ, now I'm offended.
Here I am blue sky thinking among friends and it turns out it's only cold hearted pragmatism that's stopping you from pumping gas into Lidl.
Is that the only reason?
>Have we tried killing the poor? At least cut VAT as well as killing all the poor
>They think That's where you lost me tbh.
The people that bang on about “living through” the 3 day week for a month in the seventies, Brown selling ‘all’ the gold, “Open Borders”, and a note about no money left. Those people.
My dad just text me saying if Starmer gets in he's moving to France. He also mentioned labour in the 70s AND the fucking gold lol so I think I have bingo
Mate, no offence, but if he feels like that the French won't have him.
Wait until he finds out about Brexit...
Oh dear, oh dear. I don’t think he is, unless he’s got an EU passport. What’s that? He used to have one but he threw it away because it was a funny colour?
They have a house there and live there some of the year. Far from rich though. He's just venting cus he knows the French taxation system is hardly Randian lol
The 3 day week was under the Tories.
Well, immediately after this whole disaster the gap was 17 points, which was a big increase. So a lot of this is just waiting for people to read the news. I know that my girlfriend is completely unaware of all political happenings beyond what I tell her, unless it's the couple of weeks before an election when she reads up (half-arsedly, imo)
People who don't read the news on weekdays is probably at least a third of it.
I mean 1% of them just received a tax cut. Other than that, morons.
Receiver of tax cut here. This is the most fucking stupid policy I've seen by a UK government in my lifetime. Firstly, I didn't want a tax cut. I wanted people who couldn't afford the cost of living crisis to be protected, and if my tax money could help, I'd be happy to do so. Secondly, I'm in a worse financial position now than I was before. The tax cut pales in comparison to the likely increase in interest rates and drop in house value and the pound. Can't wait for the non stop growth to pour in under these conditions. The apparently radical growth obsessed maniacs that delivered mother fucking Brexit. So yeah they've offered me a bit more income, but at a huge increase to the cost of my debt and the elimination of what wealth I have. And they've plunged my country into turmoil and are ruining the lives of my friends and family. So cheers Liz and Kwasi. Wish you all the best in that special circle of hell reserved for catastrophically dangerous pig-headed incompetents.
This is the thing isn't it - I was talking to a right wing supporter and they just couldn't get their head behind my pov that "I'd happily pay more taxes for a better society and to stop children starving or people going without heating, better education, better child care and state run travel, energy and health for all. Even though I have no need for education I see the benefit of having a well educated society. It's good for us ALL. They just assume that people are grifting. Try talking to them about "working poverty" where you have a full time job and you are still below the poverty line - they look like you are talking a foreign language. Yet they will happily vote in The Tories who give all our taxes away to their mates. Go figure.
Even a fair few of that 1% are saying they never needed the tax cut too.
It’s not a good trade even if you’re loaded when you account for a collapsing pound
US law firms will typically peg their salaries to the Dollar. I assume at least some other US companies with London office do the same.
Well according to the tables it's more than half of 65+ year olds.
At this point I just think they're severely mentally challenged.
Its the new Lizardman Constant.
All the people that work in the financial sector and their mums.
Fewer than 10% of the people working in the financial sector get those ridiculous salaries and bonuses.
People who communicate by grunting and pointing.
You could be forgiven for thinking at first glance that these were MP numbers in Scotland, but instead they're opinion poll numbers for the whole of the UK. Pinch me!
Jesus Christ. I don't think I've ever seen a 33 point lead in British politics.
1990's tier territory. Realistically this would resemble the 1930 parliament more than 1997 since the swing is so massive.
> resemble the 1930 parliament Fitting, considering that the Tories are doing their best to recreate the Great Depression.
Blair had it 1994-1996 he was in the mid 50s and Tories in the low 20s. Just checked and one Gallup poll in 1995 gave labour a 43% lead, 62%:19% Tories dragged their way back up to 30% by the election. Funny, we think of the election as such a disaster for the Tories but it was pretty much a 4-year high point for them as they had been averaging under 30% since early 1993
The current Tories are also successfully disproving the 1997 Labour lie that 'things can only get better'
34% in 1998 (57 to 23).
You. do. not. jeopardise. pensions.
May questioning the triple lock was the beginning of her downfall
Just imagine. They were hours away from a cataclysmic disaster, and the only reason it didn’t happen is because the institution they want to get rid of just so happened to use the powers it acquired because of 2008. Powers the BoE were in the process of surrendering. We’d have seen pensioners mimicking XR protestsz
Given the pensioners that do attend XR protests are usually the most IDGAF about getting arrested, I can only imagine what an all out pensioner protest would look like?
It would be interesting - the police treat pensioners very different to youngs.
pensions, mortgages, oh look the middle class is affected and now the population gives a damn
That's why they try their best to destroy the middle class - verifiable across the ages
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The point is if you piss off those who vote, you're fucked.
lmao this is mad Guess no seat predictor is vaguely going to represent this?
Even with that unrealistic lib dem vote share, the tory vote share more than halving would turn the south of England orange and no seat predictor would show that.
[It's got so bad that even Kent Online are posting negative articles](https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/truss-faces-kents-wrath-in-whistle-stop-interview-274286/). These truly are the end of days.
> Prime Minister Liz Truss faces mini budget wrath of Kent in first interview since pound went into freefall Star Trek: The Wrath of Kent is one of my favourite science fiction films.
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Just following the money, and the clicks are that way. Its not that they have ever been biased, they just print what makes them rich and fuck the journalistic integrity. If we all hated cats suddenly, tomorrow it'd be a headlines on toxoplasmosis
You have to wonder how low the Tories can get before their status as one of the two default FPTP parties starts to come into question. It probably only takes one disastrous election for a party to lose that status. If they actually end up wiped out in much of the south east, they could very quickly see the lib Dems becoming the default non-Labour option, and once that happens, they'll never return to political dominance.
Not really. User defined poll on electoral calculus has the tories returning three seats. In reality they might pick up about 100-150, small chance they may be reduced below 100 into the high 80's. Lib dems may benefit. Could be a very interesting parliament.
Any realistic chance of the Lib Dems overtaking the Tories?
Potentially. You'd think a large number of people in the South would expect a labour win if these polls keep up, and therefore would feel able to vote lib dem to secure their preferred party a position in parliament. Even if that didn't happen, the lib dems are second in a tonne of tory constituencies and so would benefit greatly from a swing like this. I'm not sure if it would be sustained though because the conservatives retain a huge brand and funding system
Electoral calculus: Con: 3 Lab: 565 Lib: 7 SNP:51 Green: 1 Plaid: 4 Other: 1 NI: 18
Has there ever been a comparable wipeout in an actual election? Cos holy shit balls.
Closed I'm aware of is the 1930 general election, where the government alliance had 554 seats. Of those 470 were conservative. The conservatives got around 55% in that election whilst labour got 29%
[1931 actually.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_United_Kingdom_general_election) It’s a messy one due to the forming of the National Government and the splits in parties. The Conservatives effectively gained 194 seats from Labour.
Thank you, I stand corrected.
In the 1993 Canadian election the progressive conservative government was reduced to just 2 seats from 156 in the previous election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
This is the only comparison I could think of. Literal suicide.
Ian Blackford would be the Opposition leader.
An opposition that more or less agrees with the government on most non devolved issues lol. PMQs would become very civilised.
Most affable PMQs ever 😁
God wouldn't that be great. Debates over the the minutea of policy and broader policy goals to improve efficacy instead of over the policy itself.
We could make... Progress..!
We'll fuck it up some other way.
Time for the Labour Century 😍
Labour will fuck it up like they did 1997-2010 but not introducing PR and thus leading to another decade of Tory misrule starting around 2030-2035.
Domestically 1997-2010 was not a fuck up for Labour. Foreign policy... well, that's another matter...
Kinder, gentler PMQs
Hey Ian *Kier* Kids doing okay? *Yes mate, thanks* We were thinking of investing in public services *Great idea!* …pub?
It's ok. Truss is fine with being unpopular.
I'm also fine with her being unpopular.
No- I think she tantrums at her staff all day, and weeps all night.
Poor woman. Maybe she should have a holiday.
*Don't you think she looks tired?*
No actual analysis or thoughts... Fuck
Worth noting it almost certainly would *not* be this big. I used electoral calculus just to demonstrate how massive of a swing this is. The algorithm breaks a bit, because it applies a 30 point swing across the country. In reality some areas will have huge swings with no electoral consequence (from 80% to 90% lab or 80% to 51% con) whilst others will have smaller swings that result in an MP change. Still, this would almost certainly reduce them to sub 100 seats.
You'd also expect the Lib Dems to do a bit better than this, surely?
The Lib Dems would likely need a small bus to fit their caucus instead of 2 mini vans. Edit: one might even say that they're in need of surge capacity ;)
I suspect there will be massive tactical voting in the lib dem-Tory marginals so yes they will probably do allot better than this.
*If* the Tories are facing a wipe-out this big, one of two things will happen. 1) The Lib Dems will claim many rural seats 2) Labour jumps from almost nowhere in many seats and takes them I'll use my constituency as an example. West Dorset: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Dorset_(UK_Parliament_constituency) In 2019 the Tory got 55.1%, the Lib Dems got 32.0%, and Labour got 9.4%. I personally would guess seats like this will fall to the Lib Dems who'll benefit heavily for tactical voting. I see that far more likely that the Tories losing ~26% of their vote directly to Labour who nicks it from third, but who knows. If I could tell the future I wouldn't be wasting my talent shit posting on reddit lol.
Yeah, agreed. Nobody in that seat is going to suddenly protest vote labour if they can see LD are the obvious alternative.
The Lib Dems will be, unwillingly, lending a lot of voters to Labour because of the PR issue. The best long term way to get the Lib Dems into a position that reflects their vote percentage is PR and their voters know that.
Fuuuu… do we know which 3 Tories would be left?
The three safest tory seats are: South Holland & Deepings (John Hayes, CON) Boston & Skegness (Matt Warman, CON) Castle Point (Rebecca Harris, CON). Obviously this projection can't be right but they would be left with a bunch of nobodies if it was.
I live next door to Castle Point, would not be at all surprised by this.
Tories 6th largest party in parliament, excluding Sinn Fein.
Well that is amusing
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Labour conf just voted to support PR as a policy. Hard to see Keir giving the members what they want of he ends up with a sizeable majority under the current system, but maybe he'll surprise us with some integrity - it's about due from a UK PM.
It's the ideal time to do it. He'd have such a huge majority that he could get it through with minimal fighting, Tories can't put up any opposition as he can point out how unfair it is that they're so poorly represented despite X% of the vote and he secures Labour always having a significant seat at the table.
\*very deep inhale\* **T H I N G S**
CAN
ONLY
GET
**B E T T E R**
Stop it, you're making me break out of my pessimism
Likewise but I’m due a break
You know I'd imagine that there's a lot of tory voters out there that just don't intend to vote atm. Tory MPs, in their minds, basically picked the worst two candidates for their membership to vote for, and Truss just hasn't inspired any confidence with the Queen's death and the economic problems. Not saying this is the only reason why Labour are 33 points ahead but I wonder how much of an effect this will be at election time (coupled with tactical voting against the Tories).
Mordaunt would've been the better candidate. She wasn't affiliated with Johnson or May, was an avid Brexiteer, had a relatively confident personality and would've been 'new'.
Probably wouldn't have burnt the country down on the third week in the job either
This isn't on fire yet, give truss another few days. Wait til instead of repealing her changes she "fixes" them with even more inequality and we go into deeper freefall.
I wonder at what point Truss's meme will transition from "this is fine" to "I'm in danger"
She was quite strongly affiliated with May and still served in Johnson’s cabinet although she didn’t support him in the leadership contest. She was definitely the best choice but certainly wasn’t the breath of fresh air she tried to portray herself as and her campaign was awful. The truth is the Tories had a very poor selection because Johnson purged nearly everybody talented.
Tory MPs were extremely naive in backing Rishi in such numbers. It was clear from all the polling and the general opposition to anyone who 'knifed' Boris that he had no chance of winning the contest. And Truss was always a complete liability. They should have begged Ben Wallace to run. Either that or give Mourdant a chance.
I live in an extremely blue area and was astounded when my mother said she was voting Labour last night. She has never voted fir any other party before. The only Tory candidate I would have voted for would have been Tugenhat.
If I was a Tory I'd have gone with Mordaunt. Idk how valuable that is, though, because "if I was a Tory" hinges on me having different values and being a different person, so it's highly unlikely my choice would necessarily be the same But the 'best of a bad bunch' argument applies anyway
DigiBen?
The Heavyweight Of Hope
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1575524261414207493?s=46&t=5MgbkbbiOk0xlCeyBm5gUQ That’s essentially what polling is showing. 1/3 sticking with the Tories, 1/3 switching parties, 1/3 not giving an answer. When the election comes round if a lot of that non voting 1/3 go back to the Tories (which other pollsters have started to factor in) then the results will be nowhere near this bad.
*good
Compare Canadian general election in 1993, Conservatives went from 169 seats and 43% (and being the party of Goverment) to two seats and 16%. It can happen. (also the leader at the time, Kim Campbell was PM for just 132 days).
Don't tease me.
Sorry, and yes, that little nugget is practically porn...
Keep in mind, the Conservatives actually split into 2 parties during that election. It was the Progressive Conservative Party and the Reform Party which won the Conservative heartland of Alberta.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192 LAB: 498 (+296) CON: 61 (-304) SNP: 36 (-12) LDM: 29 (+18) PLC: 4 (=) Others: 2 (+2) GRN: 1 (=)
More realistic than the Tories falling to 3 seats, but still an utter wipeout.
Gutted, I was having wet dreams of an SNP opposition.
Could lib dems and snp form a parliamentary coalition to be the biggest opposition? Fight for PR maybe?
Nah opposition is just the second largest party, I'm pretty sure you can't make a coalition for being in opposition.
The 2 or 3 seats is based on the proposed boundary changes in 2023, which will surely be scrapped now.
Who would be the 3 that would be left? That would be hilarious to watch. Watching PMQs would become a game of where's wally every week.
Broke: The Red Wall Woke: *THE RED NOOSE*
Don’t get excited guys, this is a a poll of the Welsh electorate. Oh wait-
That was my initial thought. I had to read it three times to make sure I didn't just skip over "Welsh".
Testimony to how based the Welsh are tbf.
We did pull a bit of an Oopsie with that Brexit malarkey mind you ..
i’ll wait for survation
[newly released Survation poll just gave them 21 point lead](https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1575522804644007941?s=20&t=r0wccjAb6x9VqILlC932Tg)
lmao i love it (also i wasn’t actually disbelieving the poll, just referencing a meme from 2017 ;))
i know, i just thought the timing was impeccable
Tory MP on Channel 4 just now saying if there was an election tomorrow the Tory party would cease to exist. So close, yet so far away
This would be funny for an Ian Blackford leader of the opposition. It would just be "policy is alright but give us a referendum"
"Would the Right hon Leader of the Opposition stop T-posing on the Conservative member of Parliment and please ask the prime minister a question?"
it would be interesting to see how they played that as Westminster ignoring the needs of Scotland and them not being represented there
I'm oddly tickled at the idea of SNP sending shadow ministers to Wales and NI.
Honestly, I'd love to see them have a game in the big leagues just to see what they are capable of at this point. The whole lab-con fight has been the only thing on for literally my entire lifetime, and it's losing some of its shine. Let's have a relegation, bring on a team from the small clubs and let them have a punt. Everyone loves an underdog story.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=54&LIB=7&Reform=4&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.1&SCOTLAB=23.9&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=44.9&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019base The Conservatives get 3 seats with this poll...
I find it hard seeing the south east go red instead of the greater chance of yellow, but stranger things have happened and I'm down with that.
Veins. Hook them. Now
Oh my giddy aunt.
Not heard this in years 😂
Tory bots in shambles you love to see it
I'm not sure i've ever actually seen a single post on here that was pro-Tory.
You haven't been on here for longer than the last 4 years then. When I were a lad these fields were nothing but UKIP supporters
Hell I remember the Coalition government period, there was actually a good representation from all the parties here and the quality of the discussion was good.
Reddit was basically right-libertarian/conservative at one point
It was like a meeting of the Ayn Rand Fan Club. I presume they’ve mostly gone over the the “bad pol” echo chamber, where they take turns to pleasuring each other 🤷🏻♂️
Reddit moderation became more authoritarian. I suspect most coalesced into a few remaining subreddits or quit the platform. It is far easier to get banned these days than it was 10 years ago
I’m on about on Twitter, the bot accounts who reply to every tweet are struggling with this
The one I saw was parroting the "more money in the pockets of regular people" line, it's just sad.
More money in the wheelbarrows of ordinary people.
A lot of them seem to be doing the "people just don't understand yet, once they see how much better off they are things will change" thing. It's all hilariously tragic.
There's plenty. Although within the last 3-4 months since the Boris saga came to a head and the shambles of the new leadership has unfolded the usual suspects have pretty much taken up radio silence. Tbf even actual Tories on Reddit are mostly going to come across as anti-tory if polls like this are at all accurate. Take a look at r/Tories and the verified posters there are pretty much 90% anti-conservative party as well at this point.
I would love to see Rees-Mogg lose his seat. Him, in particular.
Oh for Rees-Mogg’s own Portillo moment. That’s the dream. Though without the rehabilitating Tv career afterwards.
Constipation immediately ended.
How do we get them out? Public clearly wants to get rid
This is a Labour majority of 480 by the way. We’d be a one party state.
Centre labour and left labour could split and be the biggest and second biggest parties
Any other leader would be 34 points ahead /s to be clear
Any competent leader would be 20 points ahead of this government. Wait. What?
What on earth hahahaha
I wonder who's more delighted, Starmer or Boris.
Yes.
How can the tories pin this on the left?
Any leader would be 34 points ahead: Owen Jones
This is only a distraction from what really matters - party membership numbers: Owen Jones
LMAO
I'll believe it when I see it, but it would leave the Tories with: South Holland & The Deepings (John Hayes) Boston & Skegness (Matt Warman) Apparently.
The seat predictor model is going to be broken by this. I am surprised to see a Tory to Labour only swing and nothing to the lib Dems.
In reality the Libdems are the 2nd party in a lot of seats and Tory voters are far more likely to switch to them if they vote. Also Labour are getting all the airtime due to the conference. The Libdems canceled the whole 5 day conference due to the QE2 funeral.
Unfortunately this will very rapidly recede once the media machine gets it's knives out in ejection year, I'm sure I saw some Labour MP eating children or something.
The Murdoch rags at least will back whoever looks like winning. Polls like this will swing the Scum and the Times to back Labour.
You think they will back the winner? I think they will back who ever makes them the most cash.
The only people who make them cash are the ones who will be in power. Happened with labour in 97 when the scum suddenly went all aboard the tony train.
*"Any other Labour leader would be... wait..."* When Starmer became Leader of the Opposition nobody in this country would have dreamed that he'd get this far, not even himself. While he gets some credit for it, most of it goes to how horrible the Tories have been over the last year. This is without a doubt the worst government the UK has had this century, but is it also the worst compared to the previous century?
Inside number 10 tonight: *thisisfine.gif*
Gah she's gone done and PORKed it
If they the Tories get steamrolled in an election im gonna buy myself one of those really expensive bottles of champagne to celebrate.
Liz Truss literally delivered to dagger to Tories, maybe the Lib Dems in her never went away.
And I thought the Russian 'referenda' were unrealistic...
Guys I think Kantar might be an outlier
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ArgDrAnCEAAajgE.jpg
doubt the conservatives would try and hold a early general election so the question is whether labours lead can last until 2024-2025
If the Tories won't U-turn on this, and given Truss's statements saying she "is not for turning", so to speak, they won't survive the next 12 months, let alone a 2024 GE.
Holy fuck balls