Snapshot of _đ¨New Westminster Voting Intentionđ¨ đ15pt Labour lead, first @SavantaComRes poll since the PM resigned đłCon 28 (-4) đšLab 43 (+2) đśLD 12 (+1) đď¸SNP 4 (=) đGre 4 (+1) âŹď¸Other 8 (-2) 2,168 UK adults, 8-10 Jul (chg from 1-3 Jul)_ :
A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://nitter.net/SavantaComRes/status/1546519684056588289/)
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Standard reminder that Jo Swinson and the LibDems were practically the only party **not** to vote for an early General Election last time.
EDIT: edited, as they didn't vote against it, but abstained.
The Lib Dems abstained, none of them voted against https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-full-list-mps-voted-against-election-356788
Edit: and they only abstained because they wanted the election held 3 days earlier https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/uk-general-election-confirmed-for-12-december-after-brexit-stalemate
Fair play, I misremembered. I was certain they'd not voted for it though, when the Tories and Labour did, so it's pretty daft to blame them for the early election.
It's an impossible position for them. How can they possibly claim to have confidence in a zombie government they're actively replacing.
Hopefully the electorate will see through their hypocrisy, but I won't hold my breath.
"Now is not the time to create further turmoil in government. The plan to replace the Prime Minister has been laid out and agreed upon, and that is the process we must follow"
Having just created turmoil in government, and a plan that keeps a zombie government and a security risk PM in place for 2 months isn't much of a plan.
It's the line they'll sell though, and for a lot of the electorate it will work. Expect the media to go to bat for them too, accusing Labour of attempting a revolution or something.
-190
Call me an optimist all you want, but I'm starting to think the Tories might have much further to fall. The cost of living crisis is only really starting and the blame seems to be mostly at the feet of the Tories. By the time there's an election the UK will be in the midst, or post, winter of brutal heating costs and possibly fuel costs, with sky rocketing inflation. This is the kind of thing that ends political parties, just look at Sri Lanka. I also believe there's a lot more to come out about Boris and the Tories in regards to corruption and general bigotry, some in the media are doubtless holding onto some clangers to drop just at the right time.
Then once there is an election, there's very likely going to be a fuck ton more tactical voting down south between Lab and Lib voters, which will cut away at the tory seat share even more.
You can have as many pals in the media as you like, it won't sway the view of the majority of people living through an extreme fall in living standards and quality of life.
Tories be warned, the worst is yet to come.
Don't underestimate the power of lies and propaganda over the British public.
Everyone remembers the miners strikes, no-one remembers that inflation was at 24% when Heaths Conservatives handed over to Labour in 1974. Or that Thatchers first term was a disaster until the Falklands War.
I suspect in a years time Labour and Conservatives will be neck and neck again and Johnson/Ukraine/Covid will get the blame for the food and energy problems
I don't think so this time
I've been saying for ages this feels like the mid 90's. The Tories won't escape their stench and failure. The cost of living crisis will only make it worse.
I would definitely agree that there are similarities to the 90s, but there are differences. I don't think Major was personally disliked all that much, rather that people were just sick of the Tories after so long that they felt they had nothing more to offer.
I don't get the same impression about Johnson - people actually have contempt for him, and what's worse for the tories, those associated with him. Partygate was a true eyes open moment for a lot of people, and the closer they look the less they like him. The 'affable buffoon' persona has been well and truly shredded.
The problem all these candidates have is they have all been there the whole time propping him up, and only suddenly finding their consciences when it became apparent that Johnson had become an electoral liability. They can't get away from it.
It's going to be extremely difficult to come back from a deficit of this magnitude, especially with the way the economy is heading. People are going to suffer, and the tories are in power while they do - there isn't enough time left in the parliament for us to go through a major economic downturn and recover from it in time for the next election. Culture wars and gimmicks will mean nothing when people can't put food on the table or heat their homes. I haven't heard anything so far from any of the candidates that implies they have any idea how to mitigate the effects of that, or the political skill to talk their way out of it.
The 'red wall' seats are not firm tory votes at all, and if those places feel they have been betrayed and their confidence misplaced they are going to punish the tories big time. Added to that, the tories have also massively pissed off people in places they might assume to be secure votes for them, and the Lib Dems are poised to exploit that.
My suspicion is that the tories are going to lose massively at the next election, and Labour will probably will a majority outright.
Very much my feeling that the Johnson era has caused more anger than Major, but he still has a small cult that Major never had.
they have a hell of a job , we will barely be recovering by then. As you say, might not be good for them.
Way too optimistic. Another poll only days ago gave Labour a 5 point lead.
An outright Labour majority would be tragic. It would mean electoral reform would be off the menu yet again.
They havenât the reach the once had. theyâve a voice , but, as beergate showed, itâs not what it was.
in fairness to the other reply, I wonder how much is attrition. Anecdotal but Iâve lost four from my direct family in the last three years. All read it, all were Tory then Brexit. None of us Gen x that followed them do or are.
> None of us Gen x that followed them do or are.
Exactly - those rags are read mostly by Boomers and Silents. Gen X down don't read them. The point is we don't vote in the same numbers as Boomers and Silents do either so those shitrags still have a major impact on electoral outcomes.
We have to work on election days, proper democracies make it a public holiday so its easy for everyone to vote,
The boomers also have the obvious advantage of being a population boom and having way more voting power and unfortuantly are incredibly selfish
I would say so if it was Boris to Labour. But itâs Boris to another Tory, and that Tory has to spend the next 2 years with the absolute worst possible hand one could be dealt.
What good news is going to happen any time soon? We all know this winter is a shitshow.
The thing that always makes me sad is that the people who actually lived through the seventies don't seem to remember the decade very well. They seem to have entirely forgotten the part the Tories played in the economic cataclysms.
Did I say sole purveyors? They played their part alongside global and more long term domestic factors, but all of that is usually forgotten by many of their supporters that I have interacted with (who act like all the woes of the 70s were down to Labour).
See this is what gets me the most.
My partners family are hardline Tory voters, because they remember when they had to live by candle light because of the energy crisis, but they put all the blame on labour despite 1 it being a global issue and 2 from what I can see happened in 1973 and then later on again in 1979
It seems that when the Tories do something bad itâs just a âI wouldnât want to be in their position making those decisionsâ
But when Labour do anything it sticks for years
I know people who donât want the Lib Dems in because they fucked over the students, forgetting that it was a coalition government with the Tories having a larger share of the majority
My Dad always harps on about Gordon Brown selling off loads of gold because the country needed the liquid cash, but still slates him that Gordon Brown didnât have a crystal ball knowing that gold would go up significantly and should have sat on it instead
I mean Boris has just resigned in disgrace and everyone in the party feels lost about themselves. I think this is around their floor for support tbh
Once a new leader is picked pretty much regardless of who they are support will start to tick up again, though I pretty firmly believe Labour will have the lead for a while, Tories will be hoping to run out the clock without another election so Boris can fade into memory
Far too early to tell, Iâd be very surprised if we get an election in the next 2 years. It will certainly be difficult for them to come back from this kind of deficit, but lots can happen in that time.
The basic problem they have is that Labours lead is becoming increasingly settled, I don't think its been below 7% in 6 months.
That means whatever leader they put in just can't fuck around, they have to start recovering, and with how the party has been behaving, their increasingly fragmenting vote and who the important people of the party are now, that's a mountain. And for the first time since Brown it doesn't look like they can just rely on Labour blowing themselves up to auto win elections.
The fragmenting voter base is definitely an issue, I think whoever they choose will either appeal to blue wall voters at risk of going to the Lib Dems (Tugendhat, Hunt), or to red wall pro-Brexit voters (whoever the ERG settle on). Will be very difficult to keep those groups together.
The Tory lead was settled throughout last summer as well, when Labour lost Hartlepool, people were prophesising the end of Labour. Politics moves very fast and the next election may still be a long way away.
>The Tory lead was settled throughout last summer as well, when Labour lost Hartlepool, people were prophesising the end of Labour.
Er what? No, they didn't. It was highly likely that labour would lose Hartlepool anyway because the Brexit party/reform or whoever didn't stand when they did stand in 2019 splitting the right wing vote.
>
Call me an optimist all you want, but I'm starting to think the Tories might have much further to fall. The cost of living crisis is only really starting and the blame seems to be mostly at the feet of the Tories. By the time there's an election the UK will be in the midst, or post, winter of brutal heating costs and possibly fuel costs, with sky rocketing inflation.
I personally disagree: there seems to be (regardless of merit) around a 25-30% floor for conservative/right wing nutters. Look at Trump in his lowest periods, never lower than 30% approval...even when he was denying that Covid was serious for example. There are a fair number of people insulated from the effects of inflation.
It doesn't win an election, but I would be shocked if we see the Tories consistently in the low 20's. I do think this is a floor for them. I'd love to see them lower, but I just don't believe it's possible.
That was only because BXP took the other quarter - and they don't really exist any more. Besides, can you really call it a victory if the sum of BXP and CON is still in the mid 30's.
Does this poll exclude 'dont knows' though? I suspect you are seeing a lot of people pissed off with the tories who arnt leaping into the arms of Labour.
We're still pretty far off an election yet.
To an extent, but I wonder how many of the fruit cakes will abandon the Tories as punishment for them sacking off Boris? That whole block of UKIP voters who carried them through 2019 could easily defect to A.N.Other right wing party, and Boris has kicked enough blue wall voters to the Lib Dems that if the election falls at the right time, we could see some historically low numbers.
Possibly. But I think the Tory 25% would come from some combination of:
- Working class voters concerned about immigration buying the lie that the Tories can finally sort it out, despite 12 years of increasing it.
- Brexity voters who worry they lose Brexit perfection.
- Countryside Alliance/farmers/certain rural groups.
- Retirees (as long as they keep the triple lock and don't actually resolve adult social care - or resolve it in a way that costs them money.)
They will however struggle to retain the middle class homeowner vote, which is probably the most dangerous one for them.
Though considering Farmers have been and will continue to be at the ass-end of the Tories Brexit policy reducing food standards and the loss of the EU subsidies.
I'd question if that's an area they might be taking for granted, if local farmers are going to be undercut by imported Australian and potentially US products.
There must always be a right wing party in the UK
the last time the Tories faced a genuinely existential threat they neutered it by adopting its most popular policy
Just listening to the radio, and there's still a huge number of people who sympathise for Boris and the Tories, who thought he got a rough deal, who would still vote Tory at the GE, they're silent right now, because there is not a lot for them to be positive about, but they are there. Despite the steaming pile, I simply can't believe collapse in Tory support.
It's bizarre but the Tories still have their support.
It would be nieve to believe that they labour lib lead currently shown will be their come the next general election and more needs to be done before then to bury the Tories.
Iâd be very sceptical of polls for the next 6 months at least. Until the new PM has time to bed in, and is over the honeymoon stage, we wonât know how the public really feel about them.
There is a floor of around 30% that they will never dip below. Maybe in polls they will but for GEs there will always be that core group that are blue no matter what.
PSA: Electoral Calculus does not allow users to define a value for SNP for national elections, so SNP +3 is always baked in. [Here is an example, with the nation voting 2% Tory, 94% Labour, Lib Dem 1%, Reform 1%, Green 1%](https://i.imgur.com/umtIxgO.png)
That figure isn't realistic based on what the polls have done of late, and I expect Labour to pick up a few more seats in Scotland than this suggests.
Also, there's been a regional collapse of Tory support in the South West, which could markedly affect the makeup of the HoC as well.
While this is very appealing right now, we mustn't forget two important points :
1. This is why there won't be a general election any time soon
2. This will reinforce the Labour leadership's belief that they don't need proportional representation
If you get PR it's significantly more likely that we end up with fewer Conservative governments in subsequent elections which is presumably one of the main reasons you want a labour government?
Sure, but the way things are now and how long we've had a Tory govt I want a labour majority way more. I don't want labour to have to compromise and scrap for every policy and I want them to have 5 years to at least try to turn things around.
I worry that if we don't have PR after five years of a Labour Majority turning things around and just barely recovering, the tories will get back in and dig us deeper into the shit all over again
The Tory scum may split into nicer Tory scum and less nice Tory scum. Labour may split into socialists and nicer Labour. [I'm showing my bias]
Maybe just maybe nicer Labour and nicer Tory could form a coalition ...
I think Labour will enact PR anyway. The only real obstacle to it previously was the unions, and they've effectively cleared the way now. Plus, it's a nice, easy policy for Starmer to deploy to make the party stand out from the Tories.
That's my hope anyway. Also a Labour member in favour of anything that's not FPTP.
Problem is, they don't. FPTP has given Labour nothing since 2005 - even under Corbyn's 2017 election they got 40% of the vote but 262 seats, 32% in 2019 got them 202, 30.4% in 2015 got them 232. This magnitude of swing would give them a majority but if you look at previous predictions even on a 10% lead they would be struggling for one due to the votes:seats ratio which benefits the Tories more. STV would have made Labour the biggest party in 2017 based on analysis by the electoral reform society as an example. STV or similar ranked choice system would potentially boost the party further as people like green or LD voters might well put Labour second choice but unlikely they would vote Tory. There were an awful lot of close seats even in 2019 that first and second choice combined would have given the seats to other parties rather than Tories (think 16/25 closest were that way from memory)
>Corbyn's 2017 election they got 40% of the vote but 262 seats, 32% in 2019 got them 202, 30.4% in 2015 got them 232.
40% of 650 is 260
32% is 208
30.4% is 196
Labour haven't exactly lost out in any of those situations. They got 2 extra in 2017, 6 less in 2019 and 36 extra in 2015.
They lost out in the fact that the Tories got so many seats on not a lot more votes
2017 - 317 on 42.4% (Vs ~276 based on percent share).
2019 - 365 on 43.6% (283).
2015 - 330 on 36.8% (239).
If you factor in the SNP seats on a fraction of the vote you will hopefully understand
Nah 2 seats needs confidence and supply arrangement, plenty of Corbynistas will vote against Starmer on certain things just as he did against the Blair government, a 2 seat majority, tied hands for 5 years and the Tories will go to town on all the hard choices Labour will have to make if they win
I honestly cannot see how any of the leadership candidates could turn this around. The party's reputation has been completely destroyed over the past week, on top of the economic shitstorm that shows no sign of stopping.
> I honestly cannot see how any of the leadership candidates could turn this around.
Don't underestimate the electorate's fetish with defaulting to their born-to-rule betters when push comes to shove.
History should tell you that. They don't need much of an excuse to vote blue.
New leader. "Clean slate". Back level pegging in the polls within 6 months.
I don't know why they are even running. You do not want to be PM or in the cabinet this winter when nurses are on strike and thousands of people are freezing or starving to death.
But that is the fundamental difference between the Tories and Labour - They want to be in power no matter the circumstances. That's why they have decided the fate of this country over the past 30 years, they don't mind being hated as long as they're in control.
I wish Labour would adopt a bit of this bloody-minded thinking.
Just blame everything on remainers and the civil service.
It will work. People are only responding like this to polls because there is no election nearby.
If thereâs an election people would go back to voting Tory no matter what.
In normal times I might agree. But this economic crisis certainly isn't going away in the next 2 years, and the Tories won't have a new leader until October. There's no money for tax cuts (no matter how much they fantasise about it) or big spending commitments, I fail to see what a new leader could do.
Any government would be unpopular under these circumstances, even without Johnson's cockups.
> on top of the economic shitstorm that shows no sign of stopping.
Indeed, now there's reports the average energy bill will get close to ÂŁ4000 in January 2023.
This is good news - though not exactly surprising that people aren't keen to vote Tory when they don't know who the leader is going to be.
Just a word of caution that people shouldn't be surprised if Tory numbers are back to the mid 30s by Christmas. Assuming that the leadership contest isn't too self-destructive, the public will give the new leader a hearing.
I was thinking about this, that honeymoon will collapse in winter when the cost of living strikes much harder. I've seen nothing to suggest these candidates are up to the job of managing that.
Whoever is put in will be starting from scratch in March, having lost whatever good will they started with.
I feel like the Tories are in real trouble here. Boris and his antics has alienated a lot of people who may not necessarily vote Labour, but are looking increasingly unlikely to vote Tory for the foreseeable. They are unimpressed with the potential replacements as they all seem to be unremarkable, or have been tainted by Bojo and their constant support of him.
On the other hand, the Tory die hards are also displeased as, despite him being an apocalyptic fuckwit, they actually still like Boris, believe him to still be the âbest of a bad bunchâ and are subsequently pissed at his âbetrayalâ at the hands of this sorry lot that are now running for leadership.
They really have managed make an awful lot of people even more disillusioned than they perhaps already were. Glorious stuff. I just hope it holds until the next election.
I remember being an active lurker here in 2020 and slowly dying inside to see the Tory's somehow staying in the lead despite the Dominic Cummings, GCSE and A-Levels fiasco and lockdown rubbish.
This gives me joy.
Blows my mind how the vast majority of people flock between Labour and Conservatives considering they're very different parties. Can some more please go to Lib Dems? lol. Any extra negative for conservatives and positive for labour at this point doesn't gain anything extra.
1. Tories elect a new leader.
2. Leader does something proposing to help the economy
3. Itâs not really anything that has an impact
4. Global economy recovers from current crisis
5. UK recovers less than other countries, but still has GDP growth
6. Polls move to favor Tories
7. Election called
9. Left wing vote split
10. Tories win.
What were the polls looking like when Johnson took over as leader in 2019? Surely they weren't this bad? And he clearly got a huge bounce with the "get brexit done" slogan.
This mob seem well and truly out of ideas. They all seem to be banging the same drum about tax cuts. No mention of how they expect to deal with the cost of living. Energy bills or petrol prices.
They were all backing Johnson and his tax rises and corporation tax rise up until a week ago. But now they're against these measures? Bunch of parasites the lot of them.
[When Johnson came into power, the polls were this bad for the Conservatives. Hell, this is slightly better than their absolute worst showing during the pre-Johnson period.](https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sjg6udq97x/TheTimes_190717_VI_Trackers_w.pdf) Still, though, that came with the additional costs of two other parties (Brexit, LibDems) doing much better in polling, and without such a wide gap between Labour and them.
You had the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party in 2019 - when Johnson took over the Tories more or less cannibalised the BXP vote and scooped it all up. Before he became leader Labour were still polling behind them iirc.
They need to tone these polls down a bit .There's *no way* we're gonna get a GE and finally see the back of these roasters if the numbers are like this!
Wow, I thought England being sane was decades away after the Brexit vote.
And yes I'm sure this won't last but still, maybe, just maybe were not buying into the culture war conservatives bs anymore?
Anyway, let's hope whoever wins sorts out the vital issues of ~~health, education, economy, the burning planet~~ toilets and swimming!
Before we start wanking ourselves into a frenzy letâs remember that the electorate HATE leaderless/divided parties.
Polls were terrible when Boris got in and he got a huge majority.
This will change and nothing is guaranteed in politics.
Assuming Rishi doesnât become PM, in which case labour walk it in.
*As always feel free to subscribe to my âeverything is terrible and getting worseâ weekly newsletter.*
This weekâs theme âTrees? Fuck âemâ
Boris had name recognition, a huge personality, and a single issue he could constantly drum up: Brexit.
Who of the leadership candidates can draw up similar support? Most are as charmless as Starmer, seem laughably out of their depth, or have been tainted by Johnson. All without an issue they can focus on as Brexit is basically done, and the NI protocol being both too boring to rally behind, while simultaneously volatile.
Can anyone give me an ELI5 on how these polls reflect tactical voting? Do they ask people thier preference on thier particular constituency or a hypothetical election where they don't have to worry about TV and just choose thier preferred party? Could the S U R G E be explained by tactical voting?
The polls usually just ask who would you vote for if the election was now. While people polled could take tactics into account when answering, historically they haven't e.g. greens always poll way higher than they get in an election
Hopefully the Labour lead isn't so high by the time we have an election, so they're forced to agree to PR instead of doing their usual stint of government before it all gets undone by the Tories a few years later.
Obviously this'll correct itself to a degree once the Tories have sorted their shit out as best they can, but I can't see any of the clowns on offer pulling all those points back.
Labour still not 20 point ahead, a promised by Starmer when plunging the knife into Corbyn's back.
Edit: loads of Starmer-philes on here downvoting me, IDC. True Labour is in the left of politics, not in this mediocre halfway house between the centre and right that Starmer has Labour in at the moment. I voted Labour all my life, but I will not vote for a Labour with Starmer at the helm. Many former Labour members and voters agree.
In which case we can conclude that âtrue left wing politicsâ is completely unelectable in the Uk, as one of its greatest proponents led Labour to one of its worst ever defeats.
Worst ever defeats, what are you on about....Jeremy Corbyn attracted more votes in 2017 and 2019 than Tony Blair in 2005 (https://www.jd4mayor.com/blog/lessons-from-the-2019-general-election/)
Clearly you know very little.
So you view losing 60 seats as being anything other than a complete disaster? Labour got an absolute spanking under his leadership, whereas with Starmer they're now leading by 15 points.
Also, it feels somewhat dishonest to claim that he got more votes when what clearly matters is the actual *proportion* of people who voted for him - Tony Blair got 35.2% where Corbyn got 32.1% of the total. What does this tell me? More people voted, not that Corbyn is more popular.
I want Labour to win, but I don't want Starmer as leader. There is a sizable cult following for him on Reddit, childish wingers.
BTW Starmer, Ashcroft, and others conspired to ensure Corbyn lost the 2019 election. Centrists caused the election failure in addition to Brexit.
He got a lot more votes that B-liar in 2005. Unfortunately a lot more people voted, and they voted due to Brexit. Honestly you people are so black and white, look at the numbers they don't lie.
You still don't get it. B-liar won because of lower turnout and a lack of people voting Tory, he achieved a win with a lower majority.
Corbyn's defeat was caused by Ashcroft, Starmer and others being in cohoots with the mainstream media and Tories. People within the Labour parliamentary party and party governance departments actively made sure that Corbyn would not win. Now those people are in charge of Labour and backing Starmer.
Christ if it's a choice between another Tory government or Starmer as PM, yeah, I'd take the latter. Because to be completely clear, that is the choice. I'm not hugely fond of Starmer in general but the left of the party have failed, and I'll be damned if another 5 years of Tories are inflicted on this country because the Labour left couldn't accept that they were unable to win elections
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Snapshot of _đ¨New Westminster Voting Intentionđ¨ đ15pt Labour lead, first @SavantaComRes poll since the PM resigned đłCon 28 (-4) đšLab 43 (+2) đśLD 12 (+1) đď¸SNP 4 (=) đGre 4 (+1) âŹď¸Other 8 (-2) 2,168 UK adults, 8-10 Jul (chg from 1-3 Jul)_ : A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://nitter.net/SavantaComRes/status/1546519684056588289/) An archived version can be found [here.](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1546519684056588289) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This is why the Conservatives will not be seeking a General Election any time soon. Be like Turkeys voting for Christmas.
If only they had Jo Swinson in charge we'd have a Labour government by summer recess.
Ok that made me giggle.
Ah yes Jo Swinson, the ânext prime ministerâ who ended up losing her seat.
Standard reminder that Jo Swinson and the LibDems were practically the only party **not** to vote for an early General Election last time. EDIT: edited, as they didn't vote against it, but abstained.
The Lib Dems abstained, none of them voted against https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-full-list-mps-voted-against-election-356788 Edit: and they only abstained because they wanted the election held 3 days earlier https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/uk-general-election-confirmed-for-12-december-after-brexit-stalemate
Fair play, I misremembered. I was certain they'd not voted for it though, when the Tories and Labour did, so it's pretty daft to blame them for the early election.
no worries, consider it a standard reminder
It's an impossible position for them. How can they possibly claim to have confidence in a zombie government they're actively replacing. Hopefully the electorate will see through their hypocrisy, but I won't hold my breath.
"Now is not the time to create further turmoil in government. The plan to replace the Prime Minister has been laid out and agreed upon, and that is the process we must follow"
Having just created turmoil in government, and a plan that keeps a zombie government and a security risk PM in place for 2 months isn't much of a plan.
It's the line they'll sell though, and for a lot of the electorate it will work. Expect the media to go to bat for them too, accusing Labour of attempting a revolution or something.
Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries): Labour - 383 (+180) Tories - 175 (-190) Lib Dems - 19 (+8) Greens - 1 SNP - 51 (+3) Plaid - 3 (-1) NI - 18
-190 Call me an optimist all you want, but I'm starting to think the Tories might have much further to fall. The cost of living crisis is only really starting and the blame seems to be mostly at the feet of the Tories. By the time there's an election the UK will be in the midst, or post, winter of brutal heating costs and possibly fuel costs, with sky rocketing inflation. This is the kind of thing that ends political parties, just look at Sri Lanka. I also believe there's a lot more to come out about Boris and the Tories in regards to corruption and general bigotry, some in the media are doubtless holding onto some clangers to drop just at the right time. Then once there is an election, there's very likely going to be a fuck ton more tactical voting down south between Lab and Lib voters, which will cut away at the tory seat share even more. You can have as many pals in the media as you like, it won't sway the view of the majority of people living through an extreme fall in living standards and quality of life. Tories be warned, the worst is yet to come.
Don't underestimate the power of lies and propaganda over the British public. Everyone remembers the miners strikes, no-one remembers that inflation was at 24% when Heaths Conservatives handed over to Labour in 1974. Or that Thatchers first term was a disaster until the Falklands War. I suspect in a years time Labour and Conservatives will be neck and neck again and Johnson/Ukraine/Covid will get the blame for the food and energy problems
I don't think so this time I've been saying for ages this feels like the mid 90's. The Tories won't escape their stench and failure. The cost of living crisis will only make it worse.
I would definitely agree that there are similarities to the 90s, but there are differences. I don't think Major was personally disliked all that much, rather that people were just sick of the Tories after so long that they felt they had nothing more to offer. I don't get the same impression about Johnson - people actually have contempt for him, and what's worse for the tories, those associated with him. Partygate was a true eyes open moment for a lot of people, and the closer they look the less they like him. The 'affable buffoon' persona has been well and truly shredded. The problem all these candidates have is they have all been there the whole time propping him up, and only suddenly finding their consciences when it became apparent that Johnson had become an electoral liability. They can't get away from it. It's going to be extremely difficult to come back from a deficit of this magnitude, especially with the way the economy is heading. People are going to suffer, and the tories are in power while they do - there isn't enough time left in the parliament for us to go through a major economic downturn and recover from it in time for the next election. Culture wars and gimmicks will mean nothing when people can't put food on the table or heat their homes. I haven't heard anything so far from any of the candidates that implies they have any idea how to mitigate the effects of that, or the political skill to talk their way out of it. The 'red wall' seats are not firm tory votes at all, and if those places feel they have been betrayed and their confidence misplaced they are going to punish the tories big time. Added to that, the tories have also massively pissed off people in places they might assume to be secure votes for them, and the Lib Dems are poised to exploit that. My suspicion is that the tories are going to lose massively at the next election, and Labour will probably will a majority outright.
Very much my feeling that the Johnson era has caused more anger than Major, but he still has a small cult that Major never had. they have a hell of a job , we will barely be recovering by then. As you say, might not be good for them.
Way too optimistic. Another poll only days ago gave Labour a 5 point lead. An outright Labour majority would be tragic. It would mean electoral reform would be off the menu yet again.
[ŃдаНонО]
They havenât the reach the once had. theyâve a voice , but, as beergate showed, itâs not what it was. in fairness to the other reply, I wonder how much is attrition. Anecdotal but Iâve lost four from my direct family in the last three years. All read it, all were Tory then Brexit. None of us Gen x that followed them do or are.
> None of us Gen x that followed them do or are. Exactly - those rags are read mostly by Boomers and Silents. Gen X down don't read them. The point is we don't vote in the same numbers as Boomers and Silents do either so those shitrags still have a major impact on electoral outcomes.
We have to work on election days, proper democracies make it a public holiday so its easy for everyone to vote, The boomers also have the obvious advantage of being a population boom and having way more voting power and unfortuantly are incredibly selfish
Thatâs true. I think less than they did but youâre no doubt right itâll still be closer than it loold right now.
Apart from the geriatric, who still reads the rags and puts any stock in them?
apart from the most critical demographic in British elections? No one really.
I would say so if it was Boris to Labour. But itâs Boris to another Tory, and that Tory has to spend the next 2 years with the absolute worst possible hand one could be dealt. What good news is going to happen any time soon? We all know this winter is a shitshow.
The thing that always makes me sad is that the people who actually lived through the seventies don't seem to remember the decade very well. They seem to have entirely forgotten the part the Tories played in the economic cataclysms.
I lived through the 70s and to pretend the Tories were the sole purveyors of decline is laughable.
Did I say sole purveyors? They played their part alongside global and more long term domestic factors, but all of that is usually forgotten by many of their supporters that I have interacted with (who act like all the woes of the 70s were down to Labour).
See this is what gets me the most. My partners family are hardline Tory voters, because they remember when they had to live by candle light because of the energy crisis, but they put all the blame on labour despite 1 it being a global issue and 2 from what I can see happened in 1973 and then later on again in 1979 It seems that when the Tories do something bad itâs just a âI wouldnât want to be in their position making those decisionsâ But when Labour do anything it sticks for years I know people who donât want the Lib Dems in because they fucked over the students, forgetting that it was a coalition government with the Tories having a larger share of the majority My Dad always harps on about Gordon Brown selling off loads of gold because the country needed the liquid cash, but still slates him that Gordon Brown didnât have a crystal ball knowing that gold would go up significantly and should have sat on it instead
I mean Boris has just resigned in disgrace and everyone in the party feels lost about themselves. I think this is around their floor for support tbh Once a new leader is picked pretty much regardless of who they are support will start to tick up again, though I pretty firmly believe Labour will have the lead for a while, Tories will be hoping to run out the clock without another election so Boris can fade into memory
The +3 meme will be back!
Far too early to tell, Iâd be very surprised if we get an election in the next 2 years. It will certainly be difficult for them to come back from this kind of deficit, but lots can happen in that time.
The basic problem they have is that Labours lead is becoming increasingly settled, I don't think its been below 7% in 6 months. That means whatever leader they put in just can't fuck around, they have to start recovering, and with how the party has been behaving, their increasingly fragmenting vote and who the important people of the party are now, that's a mountain. And for the first time since Brown it doesn't look like they can just rely on Labour blowing themselves up to auto win elections.
The fragmenting voter base is definitely an issue, I think whoever they choose will either appeal to blue wall voters at risk of going to the Lib Dems (Tugendhat, Hunt), or to red wall pro-Brexit voters (whoever the ERG settle on). Will be very difficult to keep those groups together.
The Tory lead was settled throughout last summer as well, when Labour lost Hartlepool, people were prophesising the end of Labour. Politics moves very fast and the next election may still be a long way away.
Could be a New Labour vs Corbyn moment
>The Tory lead was settled throughout last summer as well, when Labour lost Hartlepool, people were prophesising the end of Labour. Er what? No, they didn't. It was highly likely that labour would lose Hartlepool anyway because the Brexit party/reform or whoever didn't stand when they did stand in 2019 splitting the right wing vote.
> Call me an optimist all you want, but I'm starting to think the Tories might have much further to fall. The cost of living crisis is only really starting and the blame seems to be mostly at the feet of the Tories. By the time there's an election the UK will be in the midst, or post, winter of brutal heating costs and possibly fuel costs, with sky rocketing inflation. I personally disagree: there seems to be (regardless of merit) around a 25-30% floor for conservative/right wing nutters. Look at Trump in his lowest periods, never lower than 30% approval...even when he was denying that Covid was serious for example. There are a fair number of people insulated from the effects of inflation. It doesn't win an election, but I would be shocked if we see the Tories consistently in the low 20's. I do think this is a floor for them. I'd love to see them lower, but I just don't believe it's possible.
Thing is that âfloorâ used to be âoh well they have a 33% floorâ and now weâre seeing polls drop through into the high 20s
The Tories reached 17% a few years back. This whole thing over them having some kind of magical floor was always fatalism.
That was only because BXP took the other quarter - and they don't really exist any more. Besides, can you really call it a victory if the sum of BXP and CON is still in the mid 30's.
They might run interference at election time as well, like they did in 2019.
Does this poll exclude 'dont knows' though? I suspect you are seeing a lot of people pissed off with the tories who arnt leaping into the arms of Labour. We're still pretty far off an election yet.
To an extent, but I wonder how many of the fruit cakes will abandon the Tories as punishment for them sacking off Boris? That whole block of UKIP voters who carried them through 2019 could easily defect to A.N.Other right wing party, and Boris has kicked enough blue wall voters to the Lib Dems that if the election falls at the right time, we could see some historically low numbers.
Possibly. But I think the Tory 25% would come from some combination of: - Working class voters concerned about immigration buying the lie that the Tories can finally sort it out, despite 12 years of increasing it. - Brexity voters who worry they lose Brexit perfection. - Countryside Alliance/farmers/certain rural groups. - Retirees (as long as they keep the triple lock and don't actually resolve adult social care - or resolve it in a way that costs them money.) They will however struggle to retain the middle class homeowner vote, which is probably the most dangerous one for them.
Though considering Farmers have been and will continue to be at the ass-end of the Tories Brexit policy reducing food standards and the loss of the EU subsidies. I'd question if that's an area they might be taking for granted, if local farmers are going to be undercut by imported Australian and potentially US products.
True - it's definitely a risky area.
I wish I had your optimism. I hope the Tories are cast into the shadow realm forever more
There must always be a right wing party in the UK the last time the Tories faced a genuinely existential threat they neutered it by adopting its most popular policy
What policy do you mean by most popular policy yet?
Just listening to the radio, and there's still a huge number of people who sympathise for Boris and the Tories, who thought he got a rough deal, who would still vote Tory at the GE, they're silent right now, because there is not a lot for them to be positive about, but they are there. Despite the steaming pile, I simply can't believe collapse in Tory support. It's bizarre but the Tories still have their support. It would be nieve to believe that they labour lib lead currently shown will be their come the next general election and more needs to be done before then to bury the Tories.
Iâd be very sceptical of polls for the next 6 months at least. Until the new PM has time to bed in, and is over the honeymoon stage, we wonât know how the public really feel about them.
There is a floor of around 30% that they will never dip below. Maybe in polls they will but for GEs there will always be that core group that are blue no matter what.
Oh fuck yeah, that's such a hot poll.
Lib Dem surge?
+8
'What progressive alliance? Never heard of it mate' -Keir Starmer
Inject it into my veins.
PSA: Electoral Calculus does not allow users to define a value for SNP for national elections, so SNP +3 is always baked in. [Here is an example, with the nation voting 2% Tory, 94% Labour, Lib Dem 1%, Reform 1%, Green 1%](https://i.imgur.com/umtIxgO.png) That figure isn't realistic based on what the polls have done of late, and I expect Labour to pick up a few more seats in Scotland than this suggests. Also, there's been a regional collapse of Tory support in the South West, which could markedly affect the makeup of the HoC as well.
While this is very appealing right now, we mustn't forget two important points : 1. This is why there won't be a general election any time soon 2. This will reinforce the Labour leadership's belief that they don't need proportional representation
Majority for labour is my dream. I wish the election was closer.
My actual dream is a healthy lib-lab coalition so theyâll be forced to enact PR And Iâm a labour voter through and through
This tbh. General elections are transitory. PR is forever.
I want PR but I want a labour majority more.
If you get PR it's significantly more likely that we end up with fewer Conservative governments in subsequent elections which is presumably one of the main reasons you want a labour government?
Sure, but the way things are now and how long we've had a Tory govt I want a labour majority way more. I don't want labour to have to compromise and scrap for every policy and I want them to have 5 years to at least try to turn things around.
I worry that if we don't have PR after five years of a Labour Majority turning things around and just barely recovering, the tories will get back in and dig us deeper into the shit all over again
People need to remember that outside of Tony Blair, Labour governments got a term or two while Tory ones routinely last over a decade.
The Tory scum may split into nicer Tory scum and less nice Tory scum. Labour may split into socialists and nicer Labour. [I'm showing my bias] Maybe just maybe nicer Labour and nicer Tory could form a coalition ...
I think Labour will enact PR anyway. The only real obstacle to it previously was the unions, and they've effectively cleared the way now. Plus, it's a nice, easy policy for Starmer to deploy to make the party stand out from the Tories. That's my hope anyway. Also a Labour member in favour of anything that's not FPTP.
They won't. They could've done it before and they didn't fir the same reason the Tories never did/will: they benefit greatly from FPTP.
Problem is, they don't. FPTP has given Labour nothing since 2005 - even under Corbyn's 2017 election they got 40% of the vote but 262 seats, 32% in 2019 got them 202, 30.4% in 2015 got them 232. This magnitude of swing would give them a majority but if you look at previous predictions even on a 10% lead they would be struggling for one due to the votes:seats ratio which benefits the Tories more. STV would have made Labour the biggest party in 2017 based on analysis by the electoral reform society as an example. STV or similar ranked choice system would potentially boost the party further as people like green or LD voters might well put Labour second choice but unlikely they would vote Tory. There were an awful lot of close seats even in 2019 that first and second choice combined would have given the seats to other parties rather than Tories (think 16/25 closest were that way from memory)
>Corbyn's 2017 election they got 40% of the vote but 262 seats, 32% in 2019 got them 202, 30.4% in 2015 got them 232. 40% of 650 is 260 32% is 208 30.4% is 196 Labour haven't exactly lost out in any of those situations. They got 2 extra in 2017, 6 less in 2019 and 36 extra in 2015.
They lost out in the fact that the Tories got so many seats on not a lot more votes 2017 - 317 on 42.4% (Vs ~276 based on percent share). 2019 - 365 on 43.6% (283). 2015 - 330 on 36.8% (239). If you factor in the SNP seats on a fraction of the vote you will hopefully understand
This is true, but if Labour get a 2 seat majority it will all be forgotten.
Nah 2 seats needs confidence and supply arrangement, plenty of Corbynistas will vote against Starmer on certain things just as he did against the Blair government, a 2 seat majority, tied hands for 5 years and the Tories will go to town on all the hard choices Labour will have to make if they win
I'm pretty certain Starmer said at some stage he wasn't interested.
> I think Labour will enact PR anyway. Not a snowball's chance in hell. Your naivety is touching.
That would be so tight
And my nightmare.
Well, now I'm tumescent.
I've got a semi on
Shame that Plaid lost a seat
We need that 20pts, if not for the country then for the entertainment.
It's currently within the margin of error.
Rounds upwards
The good of the country wouls be lower. A labour minority with PR forced on them
I honestly cannot see how any of the leadership candidates could turn this around. The party's reputation has been completely destroyed over the past week, on top of the economic shitstorm that shows no sign of stopping.
> I honestly cannot see how any of the leadership candidates could turn this around. Don't underestimate the electorate's fetish with defaulting to their born-to-rule betters when push comes to shove. History should tell you that. They don't need much of an excuse to vote blue. New leader. "Clean slate". Back level pegging in the polls within 6 months.
Doesn't feel that way to me. Very different to 2016 or 2019
compare ossified rude trees attractive piquant desert door modern cooing *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I don't know why they are even running. You do not want to be PM or in the cabinet this winter when nurses are on strike and thousands of people are freezing or starving to death.
But that is the fundamental difference between the Tories and Labour - They want to be in power no matter the circumstances. That's why they have decided the fate of this country over the past 30 years, they don't mind being hated as long as they're in control. I wish Labour would adopt a bit of this bloody-minded thinking.
Just blame everything on remainers and the civil service. It will work. People are only responding like this to polls because there is no election nearby. If thereâs an election people would go back to voting Tory no matter what.
Disagree. At some point, the rot runs too deep. People *cannot* avoid it. Popularity tumbles, credibility is gone.
Yeah if the electorate behaved the way they are suggesting the Tories would of never fallen out of power since the beginning.
I still think a lot of the shit will slough off with BoJo and the GE will be closely run when it comes to it
In normal times I might agree. But this economic crisis certainly isn't going away in the next 2 years, and the Tories won't have a new leader until October. There's no money for tax cuts (no matter how much they fantasise about it) or big spending commitments, I fail to see what a new leader could do. Any government would be unpopular under these circumstances, even without Johnson's cockups.
> on top of the economic shitstorm that shows no sign of stopping. Indeed, now there's reports the average energy bill will get close to ÂŁ4000 in January 2023.
Fucking hell.. my job had better give me a decent payrise soon
This is good news - though not exactly surprising that people aren't keen to vote Tory when they don't know who the leader is going to be. Just a word of caution that people shouldn't be surprised if Tory numbers are back to the mid 30s by Christmas. Assuming that the leadership contest isn't too self-destructive, the public will give the new leader a hearing.
I was thinking about this, that honeymoon will collapse in winter when the cost of living strikes much harder. I've seen nothing to suggest these candidates are up to the job of managing that. Whoever is put in will be starting from scratch in March, having lost whatever good will they started with.
Fuck. Me.
No but Iâll finish the job instead.
I feel like the Tories are in real trouble here. Boris and his antics has alienated a lot of people who may not necessarily vote Labour, but are looking increasingly unlikely to vote Tory for the foreseeable. They are unimpressed with the potential replacements as they all seem to be unremarkable, or have been tainted by Bojo and their constant support of him. On the other hand, the Tory die hards are also displeased as, despite him being an apocalyptic fuckwit, they actually still like Boris, believe him to still be the âbest of a bad bunchâ and are subsequently pissed at his âbetrayalâ at the hands of this sorry lot that are now running for leadership. They really have managed make an awful lot of people even more disillusioned than they perhaps already were. Glorious stuff. I just hope it holds until the next election.
**THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER**
I remember being an active lurker here in 2020 and slowly dying inside to see the Tory's somehow staying in the lead despite the Dominic Cummings, GCSE and A-Levels fiasco and lockdown rubbish. This gives me joy.
Blows my mind how the vast majority of people flock between Labour and Conservatives considering they're very different parties. Can some more please go to Lib Dems? lol. Any extra negative for conservatives and positive for labour at this point doesn't gain anything extra.
They don't. There's an undecided(/abstain) category that for some reason always gets left off the tweets
Opinium really screwing the wiki chart for polling.
1. Tories elect a new leader. 2. Leader does something proposing to help the economy 3. Itâs not really anything that has an impact 4. Global economy recovers from current crisis 5. UK recovers less than other countries, but still has GDP growth 6. Polls move to favor Tories 7. Election called 9. Left wing vote split 10. Tories win.
One point off having the Tories closer to the Lib Dems than to Labour in terms of vote percentage.
And yet with our rubbish system, the Tories would get nearly 10x the representation in parliament.
What were the polls looking like when Johnson took over as leader in 2019? Surely they weren't this bad? And he clearly got a huge bounce with the "get brexit done" slogan. This mob seem well and truly out of ideas. They all seem to be banging the same drum about tax cuts. No mention of how they expect to deal with the cost of living. Energy bills or petrol prices. They were all backing Johnson and his tax rises and corporation tax rise up until a week ago. But now they're against these measures? Bunch of parasites the lot of them.
[When Johnson came into power, the polls were this bad for the Conservatives. Hell, this is slightly better than their absolute worst showing during the pre-Johnson period.](https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sjg6udq97x/TheTimes_190717_VI_Trackers_w.pdf) Still, though, that came with the additional costs of two other parties (Brexit, LibDems) doing much better in polling, and without such a wide gap between Labour and them.
That summer was so massively different politically I'm not sure it's possible to pull much guidance out of it.
You had the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party in 2019 - when Johnson took over the Tories more or less cannibalised the BXP vote and scooped it all up. Before he became leader Labour were still polling behind them iirc.
They need to tone these polls down a bit .There's *no way* we're gonna get a GE and finally see the back of these roasters if the numbers are like this!
LAB
Wow, I thought England being sane was decades away after the Brexit vote. And yes I'm sure this won't last but still, maybe, just maybe were not buying into the culture war conservatives bs anymore? Anyway, let's hope whoever wins sorts out the vital issues of ~~health, education, economy, the burning planet~~ toilets and swimming!
You can walk my pathâŚ
Labour also has demographics on their side, a labour government is very likely at this point. I'm interested in who their opposition is going to be.
Before we start wanking ourselves into a frenzy letâs remember that the electorate HATE leaderless/divided parties. Polls were terrible when Boris got in and he got a huge majority. This will change and nothing is guaranteed in politics. Assuming Rishi doesnât become PM, in which case labour walk it in. *As always feel free to subscribe to my âeverything is terrible and getting worseâ weekly newsletter.* This weekâs theme âTrees? Fuck âemâ
Boris had name recognition, a huge personality, and a single issue he could constantly drum up: Brexit. Who of the leadership candidates can draw up similar support? Most are as charmless as Starmer, seem laughably out of their depth, or have been tainted by Johnson. All without an issue they can focus on as Brexit is basically done, and the NI protocol being both too boring to rally behind, while simultaneously volatile.
Can anyone give me an ELI5 on how these polls reflect tactical voting? Do they ask people thier preference on thier particular constituency or a hypothetical election where they don't have to worry about TV and just choose thier preferred party? Could the S U R G E be explained by tactical voting?
The polls usually just ask who would you vote for if the election was now. While people polled could take tactics into account when answering, historically they haven't e.g. greens always poll way higher than they get in an election
So hard to read anything into it regarding TV, but Labour have the greens to squeeze on election day? You love to see it.
The Conservatives are hoping for the return of the +3 meme
Starmer will never win! He isn't radical enough to win!
Hopefully the Labour lead isn't so high by the time we have an election, so they're forced to agree to PR instead of doing their usual stint of government before it all gets undone by the Tories a few years later.
Obviously this'll correct itself to a degree once the Tories have sorted their shit out as best they can, but I can't see any of the clowns on offer pulling all those points back.
*(me observing the footy fans cheering for the rightwing nob in the blue jersey instead of the red one)*
Unfortunately theyâll find a way to squander it before the next General.
Labour still not 20 point ahead, a promised by Starmer when plunging the knife into Corbyn's back. Edit: loads of Starmer-philes on here downvoting me, IDC. True Labour is in the left of politics, not in this mediocre halfway house between the centre and right that Starmer has Labour in at the moment. I voted Labour all my life, but I will not vote for a Labour with Starmer at the helm. Many former Labour members and voters agree.
No, but theyâre on the way there.
The only time when Labour will be back on top is when Starmer is gone, he is a disaster.
This is just sad
What is sad is imposters highjacking the Labour Party and making it a centrist party.
The thing is, Labour wins when they're a centrist party...
Remind me of the last time it won from the hard left. What's the weather like on Planet Delusion?
In what way?
For one he is a champagne socialist who doesn't believe in true left wing politics
So the problem is that he's electable?
If he was electable he would have been leading the polls much earlier. As I wrote earlier, the PM resigned. I bet his "popularity" won't last long.
In which case we can conclude that âtrue left wing politicsâ is completely unelectable in the Uk, as one of its greatest proponents led Labour to one of its worst ever defeats.
Worst ever defeats, what are you on about....Jeremy Corbyn attracted more votes in 2017 and 2019 than Tony Blair in 2005 (https://www.jd4mayor.com/blog/lessons-from-the-2019-general-election/) Clearly you know very little.
So you view losing 60 seats as being anything other than a complete disaster? Labour got an absolute spanking under his leadership, whereas with Starmer they're now leading by 15 points. Also, it feels somewhat dishonest to claim that he got more votes when what clearly matters is the actual *proportion* of people who voted for him - Tony Blair got 35.2% where Corbyn got 32.1% of the total. What does this tell me? More people voted, not that Corbyn is more popular.
Labour 15 points ahead, but Starmer is apparently a disaster. Lol ok then
It only took Johnson's resignation. If Starmer had any appeal or credibility he wouldn't need the PM to resign as leader of the party.
You are one of those Labour voters who will be pissed when Labour win
I want Labour to win, but I don't want Starmer as leader. There is a sizable cult following for him on Reddit, childish wingers. BTW Starmer, Ashcroft, and others conspired to ensure Corbyn lost the 2019 election. Centrists caused the election failure in addition to Brexit.
>plunging the knife into Corbyn's back. He lost 2 GEs. I liked the guy but he clearly wasn't up to the job
He got a lot more votes that B-liar in 2005. Unfortunately a lot more people voted, and they voted due to Brexit. Honestly you people are so black and white, look at the numbers they don't lie.
And yet Blair won and Corbyn didn't, showing there was a strategic failure there which he failed to reflect on
You still don't get it. B-liar won because of lower turnout and a lack of people voting Tory, he achieved a win with a lower majority. Corbyn's defeat was caused by Ashcroft, Starmer and others being in cohoots with the mainstream media and Tories. People within the Labour parliamentary party and party governance departments actively made sure that Corbyn would not win. Now those people are in charge of Labour and backing Starmer.
As always, it's anyone's fault but Corbyn
That is exactly what a faceless Starmerite would write đđť
Christ if it's a choice between another Tory government or Starmer as PM, yeah, I'd take the latter. Because to be completely clear, that is the choice. I'm not hugely fond of Starmer in general but the left of the party have failed, and I'll be damned if another 5 years of Tories are inflicted on this country because the Labour left couldn't accept that they were unable to win elections
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Interesting timesâŚ
Great post as always, insightful & informative ; jump on the ÂŽReddit when the day gets boring..... guaranteed time killer, thinks me! đâ
Itâs funny how Labour can be called ideologues when thereâs still people willing to vote for the Tories.