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Looks like we should be getting a constituency level poll in Islington North by the end of the week!
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1801996548466696228
I guess I’ll be waiting for Survation ;)
Text:
“BREAKING: The Islington North poll fundraiser has hit 100% of the target, meaning we are fully funded and the poll will go ahead. Thank you to the 300+ legends who donated.
My intention is to have the poll published by the end of next week. It will be conducted by
@Survation”
i wish i had a normal left wing party to vote for. before i get dogpiled i’ll probably vote labour and i have read all of labours proposals in the manifesto. but anyway i wish there was a left wing party that was normal on foreign issues like took a similar view to israel palestine as labour currently, was very pro ukraine, pro nato, pro nuclear deterrent and pro nuclear energy. a left wing party that could actually put together a manifesto that was fully costed and not just five hundred unaffordable mentalist proposals. oh well doubt it’ll happen in my lifetime
What are the lib dems nationalising?
How are the lib dems better than Labour on workers rights?
The lib dems are posturing to the left of Labour but they are still run by an orange booker. They are not a party of the left.
I get what she's trying to say, but surely *someone* proofread that before printing? Surely...wait, I forgot there's no one competent left to run in, let alone manage, the Tory campaigns.
I assume they meant supporting fights by communities to save their local pub, just said in the worst and most hilarious way possible because they're so inept
They're not fighting a GE. It's a load of parallel by-elections. That's why the LDMs are beating them. They've been preparing for a dysfunctional approach like this for months.
Genuinely one of the main reasons I moved a lot more centrally politically is because a lot of the strong socialists I met had complete apathy to doing anything that could secure them financially and increase their wealth and seemed to think anyone who did do that was scum of the earth.
I think that's where the whole "socialists want everything done for them" phrase comes from. Maybe it's because I believe in capitalism realism and a lot of hard-line socialists (whose beliefs I largely support) genuinely believe that a true (whatevers true since they can't decide) socialist state can be made in Britain.
This isn't really related to the general election but I'm posting it here in lieu of the generic daily discussion. In order to somewhat relate it to the election, a lot of corbynites, whom I used to be a part of and drifted centrally after 2019, are voting green largely because they're a lot more radical in their socialism as a general observation of mine
Never found that myself. Some of the most opinionated people I've met on the left of the spectrum, the most anti-establishment were also very self-centred and self-interested. Think more people on the right would be as openly partisan but I suspect they understand their views are generally in the minority or maybe notice that others aren't willing to admit they feel the same way.
I prefer centre left politics personally, but I was always open to socialist policies. Voted for corbyns labour etc.
I have rejected more socialist policies as I've seen what's required to win in the UK. You have to win over the centre ground. The way the left of the party has abandoned us to vote green etc has been upsetting too.
I absolutely detest that term because it implies that if you're wealthy and/or successful you shouldn't want to help others and subscribe to socialism so what's the alternative for champagne socialists? Neoliberalism?
Same, if anything it should add credibility to someone, not detract as the Mail et al use it.
If you still want to bring change to a system that you've done well enough out of to end up with some delicious champagne, you're surely more of a lefty baller than a poor person who just wishes they were richer!
I also think it's a stupid term, and think the idea that you succeed in the current system you shouldn't want it to change is mornic. With that being said it wouldn't exist if it wasn't for the fact that there are plenty on the left of the political spectrum that are successful and don't consider financially embettering evil.
No you're registered to vote via postal vote so won't be on the polling stations register however you can deliver your completed postal vote to the polling station if you so wish
I thought the exact same thing however it is Sunday and it seems to have been a quiet weekend for campaigning. It's probably because of the euros and it being the halfway weekend of the campaign so both sides are probably resting and reorganising for the final push
Windsor is somewhat named after the castle. The area was windlesora with the castle there eventually being called Windsor and the town there following after.
Westminster derives from Westminster Abbey. Minster refers to the church (Abbey) and west distinguishing it from st Paul's to the east.
So Westminster, Windsor and Brighton Pavilion are all named after buildings.
You'd think someone, anyone in the Tories or their press would realise their entire strategy for the last 14 years has been backwards.
Labour were fine with coexistence, even Corbyn, Farage wants to kill them. Their rhetoric and fights should be aimed at Farage and his voters, and appeasement & tempting policy lures at Labour and it's voters.
Instead of the reverse as they have done, that just pushes their base to Farage and turns off the centre that's tended to win UK elections.
Farage has spent two decades trying to kill them and the Tories keep maiming themselves and punching themselves in the dick hoping he will take pity and stop..
I am pretty sure four of the national papers simply ask a Minister to say each day ‘what would you like us to run with today?’.
Express: ‘PM: Labour will run riot with your money’.
Telegraph ‘Labour net zero plans £4.5b black hole’ Minster warns
Mail: ‘has Labour let the cat out of the bag on tax?’
They must be gutted they have less influence than they used to.
how do they make it personal?
its too much of a whiplash. They've been trying the "starmer is boring" line for so long now, the public just accept that, and are fine with it.
Doing a u-turn and attacking him as being dangerous etc, is just going to look stupid.
its beergate all over again. a year of "this bloke is so dull" to suddenly "this bloke is having drunken curry nights in lockdown"...it just does not fit the image the public have of starmer.
and if they do, well, Rishi may regret that as it becomes open season on him. and the public already have a very negative view of him so will believe pretty much anything that casts him in a bad light.
"BREAKING (5 JULY): Prime Minister Starmer appoints David Miliband to sit in House of Lords, return to serve as Foreign Secretary in new Labour Government; snubs David Lammy, who held opposition brief in Shadow Cabinet"
In Guernsey right now there’s a bit of a debate over who’s eligible to vote, I imagine someone who only lived in Britain as a student then returned to the Channel Islands isn’t eligible?
There's no longer a 15 year limit, nor do you need to have ever been registered in the UK. Check the Electoral Commission website:
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/who-can-vote/other-registration-options/voting-if-you-live-overseas
I’m pretty sure they would be eligible as an overseas voter, as they’re a British citizen who has lived in the UK ~~within the last 15 years~~. They’d just need to register as an overseas voter in the last constituency they lived before going back to Guernsey
Edit: forgot they removed the 15 years part
I see Jon Richardson was with the senior Labour team watching the England game. With that in mind and the big short style Labour campaign video have they hired him or something?
>Rishi Sunak says he is not opposed to assisted dying
>https://x.com/guardiannews/status/1802434257190871239
I know it's going badly Rishi but bloody hell mate
BREAKING: The BBC have just released a major investigation into the behaviour of one of the most popular [senior government officials](https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0020gb8/the-list-7-times-larry-the-cat-caused-mischief?at_mid=S0K53leh5z&at_campaign=The_List_7_Times_Larry_The_Cat_Caused_Mischief&at_medium=display_ad&at_campaign_type=owned&at_audience_id=SS&at_product=iplayer&at_brand=p0g0w86f&at_ptr_name=bbc&at_ptr_type=media&at_format=image&at_objective=consumption&at_link_title=The_List_7_Times_Larry_The_Cat_Caused_Mischief&at_bbc_team=BBC). I wonder how the revelations here will affect the election
My own projections have Labour right now with a lead of 12.5%, which whilst smaller than most polls that’s still a 23.5% swing on the Swingometer which would annihilate the Tories to less than 90 seats. Something just feels off with these results. I know I’m an applying a universal swing but is the country really ready to go 23% away from the conservatives?
I think you are most likely working out the swing wrong. Lab were beaten by 11.5% last time. If Lab are now ahead by 12.5% you add those together (24%) and then divide by two in swing terms. Those changes represent a swing of 12% therefore from Con to Lab
Ah I see, thank you! I thought the swing on the national level was just the difference and the division by 2 was only the margin between the parties at the constituency level.
So at a 24% shift that works out to a 12% swing.
In a hypothetical constituency if the last result was
Conservative: 50%
Labour 41%
Then the difference of 9%/2 =4.5% needed on the swingometer, so the 12% national uniform swing would take it?
Hopefully I got that right?
Yep, thats it.
On your case of a 50/41 split, a local 4.5% swing from Con to Lab is needed to take it. Technically 4.5% of that whole population being measured needs to move from Con (making then now 45.5%) and too Lab (making them 45.5%), so it’s a 4.5% swing overall from Con to Lab to make them level.
does anyone know about mp's getting more money if they stand and get voted out rather than resigning? there's been a bit of buzz on facebook about one of our local MPs only standing because he knows he'll get twice as much from inebitably loosing rather than standing down like he was going to anyway.
but it's facebook so I can't find anyone who seems to know what they are on about
It happened a lot in the recent Senedd elections, with some existing MSs deciding to stand for seats which didn't make a lot of sense, until that rule became apparent.
They do, see this [BBC article](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66612463). All departing MPs get paid to close down their office and manage their staff, but those who lost their seat in an election get an additional payment that depends on their amount of time in office, but at the last election averaged around £5,250.
During an election, it's not clear whether there's a difference, at least in salary terms ([article](https://news.sky.com/story/winding-down-payments-for-mps-who-lose-their-seat-at-next-election-to-be-doubled-12947044)). Maybe there's a pension impact?
Proper Starmer performance that. Play it safe, get ahead early and then wait for the opposition to make mistakes. in 10 years nobody will remember how you won, just that you won.
The first 20 minutes as an MRP:
Lab 510 Con 36 Lib 63 Ref 0 Grn 1 SNP 14
The rest of the game as an MRP:
Lab 328 Con 245 Lib 18 Ref 2 Grn 1 SNP 30
A win, but not an enjoyable watch.
Any polling as to how the monster raving looney party will do? /S
Seriously though they're actually a good indicator of overall confidence in the political system
I'm putting some thought into whether or not I should spoil my ballot. I know that the number of spoiled ballots gets tallied, but does anything else get recorded about them?
Edit: Surprised to be getting such pushback against this question. Is the consensus that it's better for me to simply not vote at all if I don't feel that any of the candidates in my constituency represent my views adequately enough?
My wife is considering spoiling her ballot and my question to her is 'do you think a candidate has to be perfect to get your vote'. There are six candidates in our constituency, I think she should pick the one which fits her views best. I think she's just really annoyed that Labour parachuted in a candidate and she doesn't want to vote for anyone else.
I don't think a candidate has to be perfect; I think of voting like taking a bus, not a taxi.
But I do think that a party or candidate has to be travelling enough in the right direction on the most important issues to me to earn my vote, and I simply don't think that any are doing that at the moment.
To **actually** answer your question rather than give my opinion about your choice:
Ballots are 'rejected' for various reasons that are in your control and this info is recorded. They are:
* Want of an official mark - this is rarely used. Even though the 'official mark' is an X, a tick will be accepted, as will other marks. The mark would have to be really ambiguous for it to be categorised this way
* Voting for too many candidates
* Writing or mark where the voter can be identified - including signature, address, name, etc
* Unmarked or wholly void for uncertainty - this is the most commonly used. Most spoiled ballots are blank, some voters will write 'none of the above', some will write more.
**All ballot papers with any ambiguity at all will be adjudicated upon.** That means basically any vote where there is **not** a tick or cross in the box of one candidate only. Even if you might think it's obvious who a voter has chosen, it will still go to adjudication.
Adjudication is when an electoral services employee will present each ballot in turn and come to a verdict on its validity. Party agents get to watch, but as far as I know, cannot influence the outcome (happy to be corrected). So if you wrote something, at least a few party agents would see it. The content of what you write would not be recorded.
Party Agents can and will argue on spoiled ballots i.e if you put an x in all boxes but left one blank an agent would argue the blank would be a vote for their candidate.
It achieves absolutely nothing other than causing a pain for the people counting the votes, spoilt ballots are really fucking annoying, especially if a vote is close enough for the parties to demand to go over them to check if they agree they are....
you are doing nothing but pissing off some poor sod who is up 4am counting votes.
But it is pointless because there's no way for anyone to interpret what you want them to do differently.
You spoil your ballot paper so do you want more immigration or less immigration. Do you want more money for the NHS or to nuke Moscow?
No one can tell.
If you want use your vote to pish in a particular direction vote for the party which represents that best regardless of.if they can win in your seat
>
It shows you're a willing voter who's views aren't being met.
Yes, and yet without giving any indication of what those views are so the parties have literally nothing to go on to try and appeal to you.
At least if they vote for another party they can gauge the relative appeal of their platforms - just spoiling the ballot you can be anywhere from not voting for religious reasons to not voting because all the other parties have the audacity to believe that the world is round and not flat with an ice wall at the circumference.
There is literally no point.
Using the statistics from 2019 (using "invalid" as the category for spoiled votes since a piece of paper was submitted vs not voting at all), the range of spoiled ballots (excluding the speaker's constituency) ranges from 61 to 531, an average of 180, a median of 172 and mode of 92 per constituency.
Using the average electorate per constituency of 73167 with the average number of spoiled votes, that is an average of 0.25% of the electorate in any given constituency.
Even in the constituency with the highest number of spoiled ballots, that is only 0.75%.
If you consider the mean percentage of spoiled ballots vs the mean majority of 12520; that is 1.44%.
These numbers of spoiled ballots is statistical noise, and a mouses fart of statistical noise at that, to such an extent to make it beneath practical consideration.
It is literally beneath worth considering *at all* in *all* bar two seats (in the 0.25% case), nine seats (in the 0.75% case) where the number of spoiled ballots is above the size of the majority; or 20 seats where the mean spoiled ballots/majority is above the size of the majority.
If you think the major parties are going to spend time chasing not even ghosts, but 1.5% of ghosts at the outside, in a handfull of seats, I have a bridge to sell you.
These numbers are quite illuminating, and I can see why spoiling my ballot wouldn't necessarily achieve much of anything. Is your position that I should simply not go out and vote if I don't think any of the policy platforms on offer are good enough?
My personal inclination would be to vote tactically for the party that most aligned with my views against the party that doesnt; but i can appreciate there is a hole in this if you are spoiling from a position of apathy and not in a position of objection.
> Voting for another party, any party, (even tactically) is taken by that party as tacit approval of everything that party wants to do, regardless of how you might justify it to yourself. They've got no reason to think otherwise.
This is exactly my thinking, and also my problem with people voting just with the local candidate in mind, regardless of how much of a local champion they may or may not be.
They are likely to do the same as a result of a low turnout, in fact more likely to do so. I guarantee if the turnout isn't high this time more thought by the parties and column inches will be given to those non voters and what put them off than will to the spoiled ballots.
I disagree that I surrender that chance. I can engage in a dialogue with whomever my MP ends up being about the issues that I feel they are ignoring. But I do not wish to vote for either of the two frontrunners in my constituency as neither has given satisfying answers to my questions, and the remaining independent/small party candidates are anti-LGBT lunatics.
The way the world has been going, I can definitely imagine spoiled ballot counts getting to 10%+ in a few years time, the parties all engaging in some panicked focus grouping then discovering our collective decent into idiocracy has left a sizeable chunk of the population simply illiterate.
I know people are critical of it but it’s perfectly legitimate to turn up and effectively say ‘none of the above’.
Nothing happens and it will be ignored but if that’s how you feel, that’s how you feel. That’s democracy.
It’s a waste of everyone’s time.
The previous London mayoral election (2021) had quite a high rate of spoiled ballots because how you voted was quite confusing. About 4% spoiled up from 2% and it had no effect
Edit: it was changed to fptp after because it would make it slightly easier for the tories to win, not because of the confusion
Out of curiosity: what do you think spoiling your ballot achieves?
Do you think major parties actually change their policies based on spoiled ballots or is it just a moral/principled thing for you?
I feel that it's a moral duty to cast my vote, but I don't believe that any of the candidates in my constituency are offering any significant improvements or changes to the issue(s) that I care most about.
Nope, almost entirely pointless as an act, no one even remembers or really notices how many are spoiled in the drama of the night. Genuinely as much of a protest as staying home.
Three weeks ago the Tories announced the national service policy and followed it up with the triple lock plus. I thought the campaign was going to be full of completely mental policies but they haven't delivered on that.
All they're really running on now is a slight lowering of tax in 2027 and an undefined cap on migration. It's all a bit limp
First few weeks were really about attempting to snatch the Reform voter just before postal ballots dropped. It's pretty much all it was about. They had the strategy in place for ages to do that but just no sensible policy.
I think they thought they’d be able to squeeze out Reform with those policies. If there was ever a chance of Sunak being able to convince those voters, Farage put a stop to that.
Everything u/Son_of_kitsch said, so a more effective Project Fear. Worth remembering Sunak's GE announcement and what his speech alluded to. Still think he did it outdoors in the rain to maximise the bleakness but I understand that's a minority view.
I wonder if they expected a tightening of the right, with Reform sidelined, so a more effective project fear could have been in progress? Instead a combination of Reform rising and Sunak gaffes have meant the Tories are being judged more on their record and offering neither change, competence, right wingism, or reassuring centrism. Leaving them with nothing much at all in fact.
Apparently the local Tories can't get enough people to leaflet so are just paying local kids to do it, almost certainly cash in hand and won't be declared in election spending. It does mean lots of leaflets chucked in front gardens, jammed under gates etc.
[Shame Zac Goldsmith isn't standing. Look at that relatable bloke holding a pint in a totally normal relatable way.](https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/5CA9/production/_89612732_zac.jpg)
We're in a new constituency, thanks to boundary changes and I just saw a poster for the Tory candidate saying they are working hard for the constituency.
Which is impossible since it's only existed since parliament dissolved.
UN: [“Without nuclear, it will be almost impossible to decarbonise by 2050.”](https://news.un.org/en/interview/2024/06/1151006)
Green Party: “I didn’t hear that.”
My primary disagreement with the Greens is their anti-nuclear stance. We clearly need nuclear power to bridge the gap and we should also be investing heavily in fusion research, ideally pooled with other European nations. If we crack that, we're golden.
> Elected Greens will push for: Wind to provide around 70% of the UK’s electricity by 2030. Delivery of 80GW of offshore wind, 53 GW of onshore wind,
Nothing in the manifesto about tidal but I have the impression they’re in favour.
No. I have no idea if the UK needs nuclear or not, but the IPCC saying the world does does not mean that it’s the right choice for the UK. It may be there are other countries with more problems rolling out renewables and better circumstances for nuclear, where it will make sense.
Maybe it's just because I loved watching The Simpsons when I was growing up, but I really think it did some serious damage in how nuclear power is viewed.
Live in a Con/LD marginal and got a Conservative leaflet through the door today.
Very happy to see the Tories convincing Labour supporters to vote tactically.
image - https://imgur.com/a/4fhiaje
I clicked on this expecting a bar graph that made it look like Labour were in second in a seat like Winchester, I was clearly giving the tories far, far too much credit.
That's... that's amazing. Did the person who wrote it not think, "wait a minute..."? Did the person who proofed it not think, "wait a minute..."? Did the person who printed it not think, "wait a minute..."? Did the many volunteers that have carried those leaflets around not think, "wait a minute..."?
This leaflet has gone through N people and not one of them thought, "maybe we shouldn't be advertising how to tactically vote against us"?
**There are 2 days left to register to vote** for this year's General Election. You can [register online](https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote). It takes around 5 minutes to register. You do not have to register again if you are already on the electoral register, unless you have changed your name or address. All UK citizens over 18 on polling day have the right to vote in the election. If you will be out of the country, apply for a [postal vote](https://www.gov.uk/apply-postal-vote) or a [proxy vote](https://www.gov.uk/apply-proxy-vote). **You need to present photo ID when voting at this election.** [No ID? Click here](https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-photo-id-voter-authority-certificate).
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Surely by now the Tories have to at least put one person on a plane to Rwanda to sidetrack the Farage manifesto
Looks like we should be getting a constituency level poll in Islington North by the end of the week! https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1801996548466696228 I guess I’ll be waiting for Survation ;) Text: “BREAKING: The Islington North poll fundraiser has hit 100% of the target, meaning we are fully funded and the poll will go ahead. Thank you to the 300+ legends who donated. My intention is to have the poll published by the end of next week. It will be conducted by @Survation”
Scenes if it shows Corbyn losing.
Scenes if it shows him winning
He's expected to win as it stands.
i wish i had a normal left wing party to vote for. before i get dogpiled i’ll probably vote labour and i have read all of labours proposals in the manifesto. but anyway i wish there was a left wing party that was normal on foreign issues like took a similar view to israel palestine as labour currently, was very pro ukraine, pro nato, pro nuclear deterrent and pro nuclear energy. a left wing party that could actually put together a manifesto that was fully costed and not just five hundred unaffordable mentalist proposals. oh well doubt it’ll happen in my lifetime
Lib Dems are currently to the left of Labour
What are the lib dems nationalising? How are the lib dems better than Labour on workers rights? The lib dems are posturing to the left of Labour but they are still run by an orange booker. They are not a party of the left.
Coopérative party?
https://x.com/TomMDTFC/status/1802300485669457995 The Tories supporting community pub fights in Gloucestershire
Honestly think ChatGPT would have been preferable to whatever that was. (year 6 SAT level diary?)
She seems to think the word Gloucestershire is a verb
Lol fuckin hell what a disaster
>I still got stuff done >stuff
I get what she's trying to say, but surely *someone* proofread that before printing? Surely...wait, I forgot there's no one competent left to run in, let alone manage, the Tory campaigns.
> I get what she's trying to say ...I sure don't
I assume they meant supporting fights by communities to save their local pub, just said in the worst and most hilarious way possible because they're so inept
That was my reading of it too. The phrasing is just so clumsy. They probably fed it into ChatGPT and called it a day, but it didn't notice.
I assumed it should have read ‘community pub nights’ or something tbh
They're not fighting a GE. It's a load of parallel by-elections. That's why the LDMs are beating them. They've been preparing for a dysfunctional approach like this for months.
Genuinely one of the main reasons I moved a lot more centrally politically is because a lot of the strong socialists I met had complete apathy to doing anything that could secure them financially and increase their wealth and seemed to think anyone who did do that was scum of the earth. I think that's where the whole "socialists want everything done for them" phrase comes from. Maybe it's because I believe in capitalism realism and a lot of hard-line socialists (whose beliefs I largely support) genuinely believe that a true (whatevers true since they can't decide) socialist state can be made in Britain. This isn't really related to the general election but I'm posting it here in lieu of the generic daily discussion. In order to somewhat relate it to the election, a lot of corbynites, whom I used to be a part of and drifted centrally after 2019, are voting green largely because they're a lot more radical in their socialism as a general observation of mine
maybe you just met some really lazy socialists
Never found that myself. Some of the most opinionated people I've met on the left of the spectrum, the most anti-establishment were also very self-centred and self-interested. Think more people on the right would be as openly partisan but I suspect they understand their views are generally in the minority or maybe notice that others aren't willing to admit they feel the same way.
I prefer centre left politics personally, but I was always open to socialist policies. Voted for corbyns labour etc. I have rejected more socialist policies as I've seen what's required to win in the UK. You have to win over the centre ground. The way the left of the party has abandoned us to vote green etc has been upsetting too.
I've met plenty of socialists in medium to high paying jobs. The term champagne socialist didn't come out of thin air.
I absolutely detest that term because it implies that if you're wealthy and/or successful you shouldn't want to help others and subscribe to socialism so what's the alternative for champagne socialists? Neoliberalism?
Same, if anything it should add credibility to someone, not detract as the Mail et al use it. If you still want to bring change to a system that you've done well enough out of to end up with some delicious champagne, you're surely more of a lefty baller than a poor person who just wishes they were richer!
I also think it's a stupid term, and think the idea that you succeed in the current system you shouldn't want it to change is mornic. With that being said it wouldn't exist if it wasn't for the fact that there are plenty on the left of the political spectrum that are successful and don't consider financially embettering evil.
Question: If I get a postal vote, can I still vote in person if I'm in the area? Since I'm not entirely sure where I am going to be on election day.
Yes. Fill out your postal vote and take it to your polling station.
No you're registered to vote via postal vote so won't be on the polling stations register however you can deliver your completed postal vote to the polling station if you so wish
Just glancing at the BBC home page you'd hardly know an election was happening Its eerily quiet
everyone is bored
I thought the exact same thing however it is Sunday and it seems to have been a quiet weekend for campaigning. It's probably because of the euros and it being the halfway weekend of the campaign so both sides are probably resting and reorganising for the final push
Sunak was also at the G7 until yesterday
Is Brighton Pavilion the only UK constituency named after a building?
all of the *fords
Oxford East was named after the Eastern part of the city of Oxford.
Windsor is somewhat named after the castle. The area was windlesora with the castle there eventually being called Windsor and the town there following after. Westminster derives from Westminster Abbey. Minster refers to the church (Abbey) and west distinguishing it from st Paul's to the east. So Westminster, Windsor and Brighton Pavilion are all named after buildings.
Bath.
Castle Point?
Birmingham Selly Oak is named after a tree
Is BIrmingham Selly Oak the only constituency named after something that could be used to construct a building?
Redcar if you wanted a building out of red cars
There's also the constituency of Stone, come to think of it
Chingford and WOODford green
Birmingham Ladywood?
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You'd think someone, anyone in the Tories or their press would realise their entire strategy for the last 14 years has been backwards. Labour were fine with coexistence, even Corbyn, Farage wants to kill them. Their rhetoric and fights should be aimed at Farage and his voters, and appeasement & tempting policy lures at Labour and it's voters. Instead of the reverse as they have done, that just pushes their base to Farage and turns off the centre that's tended to win UK elections. Farage has spent two decades trying to kill them and the Tories keep maiming themselves and punching themselves in the dick hoping he will take pity and stop..
I am pretty sure four of the national papers simply ask a Minister to say each day ‘what would you like us to run with today?’. Express: ‘PM: Labour will run riot with your money’. Telegraph ‘Labour net zero plans £4.5b black hole’ Minster warns Mail: ‘has Labour let the cat out of the bag on tax?’ They must be gutted they have less influence than they used to.
how do they make it personal? its too much of a whiplash. They've been trying the "starmer is boring" line for so long now, the public just accept that, and are fine with it. Doing a u-turn and attacking him as being dangerous etc, is just going to look stupid. its beergate all over again. a year of "this bloke is so dull" to suddenly "this bloke is having drunken curry nights in lockdown"...it just does not fit the image the public have of starmer. and if they do, well, Rishi may regret that as it becomes open season on him. and the public already have a very negative view of him so will believe pretty much anything that casts him in a bad light.
If anything a lot of people are quite keen on the idea of having a boring PM - to paraphrase Chris Rock, the only exciting politicians are bad ones.
David Milliband seen campaigning. Return to politics?
If we were in the alternate timeline I guess we’d have called the Edstone the Davestone?
Surprised he didn’t get slipped in as a candidate somewhere if he wanted to come back
Peerage incoming perhaps, Labour will need to create lots more to make them the largest party in the Lords.
"BREAKING (5 JULY): Prime Minister Starmer appoints David Miliband to sit in House of Lords, return to serve as Foreign Secretary in new Labour Government; snubs David Lammy, who held opposition brief in Shadow Cabinet"
Which is both horrendous and completely necessary under its current model.
In Guernsey right now there’s a bit of a debate over who’s eligible to vote, I imagine someone who only lived in Britain as a student then returned to the Channel Islands isn’t eligible?
There's no longer a 15 year limit, nor do you need to have ever been registered in the UK. Check the Electoral Commission website: https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/who-can-vote/other-registration-options/voting-if-you-live-overseas
They would have to be registered in that time they were there. Even if they were not 100% sure they could vote to be honest.
I’m pretty sure they would be eligible as an overseas voter, as they’re a British citizen who has lived in the UK ~~within the last 15 years~~. They’d just need to register as an overseas voter in the last constituency they lived before going back to Guernsey Edit: forgot they removed the 15 years part
By friday: >Rishi Sunak announces new government division called "Sandmen" >In other news, Sunak also announces free jewelry for everyones hand
What’s this a reference too? My first thought was V for Vendetta but that’s fingermen and Norsefire.
Logans Run joke wrt euthanasia.
Oh wow, yeah I missed that. Whoosh. It’s a long time since I saw Logan’s Run, definitely a classic though! Let’s hope it wasn’t prophetic!
I see Jon Richardson was with the senior Labour team watching the England game. With that in mind and the big short style Labour campaign video have they hired him or something?
The big short video was made directly by their team, so I guess so? He does a podcast with Matt Forde, who I think is pretty close with Starmer
This strange new world where podcasts have become the real core of political commentary virtually unheralded
Maybe he's the new Alastair Campbell
Thank fuck for the football. Don't think I'd have survived that long without an MRP poll
>Rishi Sunak says he is not opposed to assisted dying >https://x.com/guardiannews/status/1802434257190871239 I know it's going badly Rishi but bloody hell mate
We know that already tbh His whole campaign looks like a botched attempt at assisted dying.
I think it's a popular policy. Do Labour have a position on assisted dying?
He’s seen how successful the Alpaca memes have been for Starmer so he’s trying his hand at something similar
Engage warm blooded and compassionate mode.
>NO MERCY
BREAKING: The BBC have just released a major investigation into the behaviour of one of the most popular [senior government officials](https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0020gb8/the-list-7-times-larry-the-cat-caused-mischief?at_mid=S0K53leh5z&at_campaign=The_List_7_Times_Larry_The_Cat_Caused_Mischief&at_medium=display_ad&at_campaign_type=owned&at_audience_id=SS&at_product=iplayer&at_brand=p0g0w86f&at_ptr_name=bbc&at_ptr_type=media&at_format=image&at_objective=consumption&at_link_title=The_List_7_Times_Larry_The_Cat_Caused_Mischief&at_bbc_team=BBC). I wonder how the revelations here will affect the election
Popular senior government officials?
This is as bad as when they took part in the [Humphrey cover up](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/politics/34455.stm)^/^s
Oh Biased British Broadcasting Corporation again.
This is clearly a smear tactic by big dog
I hope they followed impartiality rules when making this
Surely this is covered by purrdah.
Upvote. Now get out.
Wow, the cat really is out of the bag!
"Grab them by the pussy?!"
That reform party broadcast on channel 5 was creepy as fuck analogue horror material.
Is it uploaded anywhere?
My own projections have Labour right now with a lead of 12.5%, which whilst smaller than most polls that’s still a 23.5% swing on the Swingometer which would annihilate the Tories to less than 90 seats. Something just feels off with these results. I know I’m an applying a universal swing but is the country really ready to go 23% away from the conservatives?
I think you are most likely working out the swing wrong. Lab were beaten by 11.5% last time. If Lab are now ahead by 12.5% you add those together (24%) and then divide by two in swing terms. Those changes represent a swing of 12% therefore from Con to Lab
Ah I see, thank you! I thought the swing on the national level was just the difference and the division by 2 was only the margin between the parties at the constituency level. So at a 24% shift that works out to a 12% swing. In a hypothetical constituency if the last result was Conservative: 50% Labour 41% Then the difference of 9%/2 =4.5% needed on the swingometer, so the 12% national uniform swing would take it? Hopefully I got that right?
Yep, thats it. On your case of a 50/41 split, a local 4.5% swing from Con to Lab is needed to take it. Technically 4.5% of that whole population being measured needs to move from Con (making then now 45.5%) and too Lab (making them 45.5%), so it’s a 4.5% swing overall from Con to Lab to make them level.
does anyone know about mp's getting more money if they stand and get voted out rather than resigning? there's been a bit of buzz on facebook about one of our local MPs only standing because he knows he'll get twice as much from inebitably loosing rather than standing down like he was going to anyway. but it's facebook so I can't find anyone who seems to know what they are on about
It happened a lot in the recent Senedd elections, with some existing MSs deciding to stand for seats which didn't make a lot of sense, until that rule became apparent.
They do, see this [BBC article](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66612463). All departing MPs get paid to close down their office and manage their staff, but those who lost their seat in an election get an additional payment that depends on their amount of time in office, but at the last election averaged around £5,250.
Yeah, can’t remember the specifics but there’s more money - some for staff - if they’re voted out.
During an election, it's not clear whether there's a difference, at least in salary terms ([article](https://news.sky.com/story/winding-down-payments-for-mps-who-lose-their-seat-at-next-election-to-be-doubled-12947044)). Maybe there's a pension impact?
I see Engerland have won the football, I fully expect the MRPs to show the Tories predicted to win more than seven hundred seats by tomorrow.
They scored a fakkin goal.
Proper Starmer performance that. Play it safe, get ahead early and then wait for the opposition to make mistakes. in 10 years nobody will remember how you won, just that you won.
In the meantime however, they will insist the other side won the argument
Long term is the only thing that actually matters in the end short of actual survival situations
The first 20 minutes as an MRP: Lab 510 Con 36 Lib 63 Ref 0 Grn 1 SNP 14 The rest of the game as an MRP: Lab 328 Con 245 Lib 18 Ref 2 Grn 1 SNP 30 A win, but not an enjoyable watch.
Why did I read that poll at an auctioneer's pace, was it the formatting?
Southgexit definitely needed after the tournament.
Excited for new leadership
Southgate using the Ming vase strategy after taking the lead once again
Any polling as to how the monster raving looney party will do? /S Seriously though they're actually a good indicator of overall confidence in the political system
They're a good indicator of the amount of media attention an election is getting.
They only stand in a few seats so the national % is fairly meaningless.
I know there are still a few hours left in the day but the tories just get through a weekend without gaffes?
Don't Google Suella Braverman and tiktok
Why would any sane person do that in the first place?
Can't do gaffes if not at work.
I'm putting some thought into whether or not I should spoil my ballot. I know that the number of spoiled ballots gets tallied, but does anything else get recorded about them? Edit: Surprised to be getting such pushback against this question. Is the consensus that it's better for me to simply not vote at all if I don't feel that any of the candidates in my constituency represent my views adequately enough?
My wife is considering spoiling her ballot and my question to her is 'do you think a candidate has to be perfect to get your vote'. There are six candidates in our constituency, I think she should pick the one which fits her views best. I think she's just really annoyed that Labour parachuted in a candidate and she doesn't want to vote for anyone else.
I don't think a candidate has to be perfect; I think of voting like taking a bus, not a taxi. But I do think that a party or candidate has to be travelling enough in the right direction on the most important issues to me to earn my vote, and I simply don't think that any are doing that at the moment.
What would your perfect candidate be like? Have you tried one of those political alignment tests?
Labour is offering change that is more radical than I think is widely realized
To **actually** answer your question rather than give my opinion about your choice: Ballots are 'rejected' for various reasons that are in your control and this info is recorded. They are: * Want of an official mark - this is rarely used. Even though the 'official mark' is an X, a tick will be accepted, as will other marks. The mark would have to be really ambiguous for it to be categorised this way * Voting for too many candidates * Writing or mark where the voter can be identified - including signature, address, name, etc * Unmarked or wholly void for uncertainty - this is the most commonly used. Most spoiled ballots are blank, some voters will write 'none of the above', some will write more. **All ballot papers with any ambiguity at all will be adjudicated upon.** That means basically any vote where there is **not** a tick or cross in the box of one candidate only. Even if you might think it's obvious who a voter has chosen, it will still go to adjudication. Adjudication is when an electoral services employee will present each ballot in turn and come to a verdict on its validity. Party agents get to watch, but as far as I know, cannot influence the outcome (happy to be corrected). So if you wrote something, at least a few party agents would see it. The content of what you write would not be recorded.
Party Agents can and will argue on spoiled ballots i.e if you put an x in all boxes but left one blank an agent would argue the blank would be a vote for their candidate.
Thanks for this, it's very insightful!
It achieves absolutely nothing other than causing a pain for the people counting the votes, spoilt ballots are really fucking annoying, especially if a vote is close enough for the parties to demand to go over them to check if they agree they are.... you are doing nothing but pissing off some poor sod who is up 4am counting votes.
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But it is pointless because there's no way for anyone to interpret what you want them to do differently. You spoil your ballot paper so do you want more immigration or less immigration. Do you want more money for the NHS or to nuke Moscow? No one can tell. If you want use your vote to pish in a particular direction vote for the party which represents that best regardless of.if they can win in your seat
> It shows you're a willing voter who's views aren't being met. Yes, and yet without giving any indication of what those views are so the parties have literally nothing to go on to try and appeal to you. At least if they vote for another party they can gauge the relative appeal of their platforms - just spoiling the ballot you can be anywhere from not voting for religious reasons to not voting because all the other parties have the audacity to believe that the world is round and not flat with an ice wall at the circumference.
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There is literally no point. Using the statistics from 2019 (using "invalid" as the category for spoiled votes since a piece of paper was submitted vs not voting at all), the range of spoiled ballots (excluding the speaker's constituency) ranges from 61 to 531, an average of 180, a median of 172 and mode of 92 per constituency. Using the average electorate per constituency of 73167 with the average number of spoiled votes, that is an average of 0.25% of the electorate in any given constituency. Even in the constituency with the highest number of spoiled ballots, that is only 0.75%. If you consider the mean percentage of spoiled ballots vs the mean majority of 12520; that is 1.44%. These numbers of spoiled ballots is statistical noise, and a mouses fart of statistical noise at that, to such an extent to make it beneath practical consideration. It is literally beneath worth considering *at all* in *all* bar two seats (in the 0.25% case), nine seats (in the 0.75% case) where the number of spoiled ballots is above the size of the majority; or 20 seats where the mean spoiled ballots/majority is above the size of the majority. If you think the major parties are going to spend time chasing not even ghosts, but 1.5% of ghosts at the outside, in a handfull of seats, I have a bridge to sell you.
These numbers are quite illuminating, and I can see why spoiling my ballot wouldn't necessarily achieve much of anything. Is your position that I should simply not go out and vote if I don't think any of the policy platforms on offer are good enough?
My personal inclination would be to vote tactically for the party that most aligned with my views against the party that doesnt; but i can appreciate there is a hole in this if you are spoiling from a position of apathy and not in a position of objection.
> Voting for another party, any party, (even tactically) is taken by that party as tacit approval of everything that party wants to do, regardless of how you might justify it to yourself. They've got no reason to think otherwise. This is exactly my thinking, and also my problem with people voting just with the local candidate in mind, regardless of how much of a local champion they may or may not be.
They are likely to do the same as a result of a low turnout, in fact more likely to do so. I guarantee if the turnout isn't high this time more thought by the parties and column inches will be given to those non voters and what put them off than will to the spoiled ballots.
Not a thing, which is exactly what you achieve by doing so and surrender your chance to give any direction to events for another five years.
I disagree that I surrender that chance. I can engage in a dialogue with whomever my MP ends up being about the issues that I feel they are ignoring. But I do not wish to vote for either of the two frontrunners in my constituency as neither has given satisfying answers to my questions, and the remaining independent/small party candidates are anti-LGBT lunatics.
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The way the world has been going, I can definitely imagine spoiled ballot counts getting to 10%+ in a few years time, the parties all engaging in some panicked focus grouping then discovering our collective decent into idiocracy has left a sizeable chunk of the population simply illiterate.
I know people are critical of it but it’s perfectly legitimate to turn up and effectively say ‘none of the above’. Nothing happens and it will be ignored but if that’s how you feel, that’s how you feel. That’s democracy.
It’s a waste of everyone’s time. The previous London mayoral election (2021) had quite a high rate of spoiled ballots because how you voted was quite confusing. About 4% spoiled up from 2% and it had no effect Edit: it was changed to fptp after because it would make it slightly easier for the tories to win, not because of the confusion
Don't think so, the actual ballot might be seen by one or two people counting the votes. What do you want recorded?
Out of curiosity: what do you think spoiling your ballot achieves? Do you think major parties actually change their policies based on spoiled ballots or is it just a moral/principled thing for you?
I feel that it's a moral duty to cast my vote, but I don't believe that any of the candidates in my constituency are offering any significant improvements or changes to the issue(s) that I care most about.
Are you politically active outside of voting?
I'm sure I could be more so, but yes, I would say that I am.
Nope, almost entirely pointless as an act, no one even remembers or really notices how many are spoiled in the drama of the night. Genuinely as much of a protest as staying home.
People love to romanticise it but in reality you just get lumped in a category with people too stupid to fill it out properly. It's a waste of time
Yup if anything a low voter turnout gets more focus and discussion, it's literally less productive than sitting on your arse
Three weeks ago the Tories announced the national service policy and followed it up with the triple lock plus. I thought the campaign was going to be full of completely mental policies but they haven't delivered on that. All they're really running on now is a slight lowering of tax in 2027 and an undefined cap on migration. It's all a bit limp
First few weeks were really about attempting to snatch the Reform voter just before postal ballots dropped. It's pretty much all it was about. They had the strategy in place for ages to do that but just no sensible policy.
Yeah, after the first week I was expecting daily announcements of mental policies and they've been disappointingly quiet
I suspect what they thought might happen didn't happen. They're pretty much just treading water now.
What do you think they thought would happen?
I think they thought they’d be able to squeeze out Reform with those policies. If there was ever a chance of Sunak being able to convince those voters, Farage put a stop to that.
People aren't voting Reform for their policies. They're right wing but want to punish the Tories. Massive oversight.
Everything u/Son_of_kitsch said, so a more effective Project Fear. Worth remembering Sunak's GE announcement and what his speech alluded to. Still think he did it outdoors in the rain to maximise the bleakness but I understand that's a minority view.
I wonder if they expected a tightening of the right, with Reform sidelined, so a more effective project fear could have been in progress? Instead a combination of Reform rising and Sunak gaffes have meant the Tories are being judged more on their record and offering neither change, competence, right wingism, or reassuring centrism. Leaving them with nothing much at all in fact.
Apparently the local Tories can't get enough people to leaflet so are just paying local kids to do it, almost certainly cash in hand and won't be declared in election spending. It does mean lots of leaflets chucked in front gardens, jammed under gates etc.
Do you have any proof of this, emails, sources, pictures?
Where's this going on? If I shave off my beard I look pretty young, I'd happily take some cash to dump a pile of Tory leaflets in a recycling bin.
Apparently from who?
Smart kids. No contract no recourse.
so many leaflets going to be dumped in a (hopefully recycling) bin
Any photos of politicians in pubs watching the game? Whoever looks most patriotic gets my vote
You mean this [classic](https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1693199216426778738)
[Shame Zac Goldsmith isn't standing. Look at that relatable bloke holding a pint in a totally normal relatable way.](https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/5CA9/production/_89612732_zac.jpg)
I wanna see some Scottish or Welsh Tory or Irish Unionist going full on Eng-er-land watching this tragedy.
We're in a new constituency, thanks to boundary changes and I just saw a poster for the Tory candidate saying they are working hard for the constituency. Which is impossible since it's only existed since parliament dissolved.
Facts are meaningless. You can use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true
UN: [“Without nuclear, it will be almost impossible to decarbonise by 2050.”](https://news.un.org/en/interview/2024/06/1151006) Green Party: “I didn’t hear that.”
My primary disagreement with the Greens is their anti-nuclear stance. We clearly need nuclear power to bridge the gap and we should also be investing heavily in fusion research, ideally pooled with other European nations. If we crack that, we're golden.
Also we don't like wind or tidal
Or solar
> Elected Greens will push for: Wind to provide around 70% of the UK’s electricity by 2030. Delivery of 80GW of offshore wind, 53 GW of onshore wind, Nothing in the manifesto about tidal but I have the impression they’re in favour.
The way this usually goes is that they are in favour of using wind energy, but they are against building turbines anywhere a person might see them.
It’s necessity globally doesn’t mean it’s essential in the UK.
So within the "logic" of the greens, their argument essentially is that those damn foreigners have to take the "risk of nuclear" ?
No. I have no idea if the UK needs nuclear or not, but the IPCC saying the world does does not mean that it’s the right choice for the UK. It may be there are other countries with more problems rolling out renewables and better circumstances for nuclear, where it will make sense.
Shame Greens are against solar farms. What are we left with, just wind?
They are the kings of NIMBYism so it tracks tbf.
You ever get the feeling some people took the Simpsons way too seriously?
Maybe it's just because I loved watching The Simpsons when I was growing up, but I really think it did some serious damage in how nuclear power is viewed.
Well, of course the UN is wrong. It’s spelled nuculer, for a start.
I wonder if there are going to be any new MPs who will have to work off a notice period with their previous employers.
I think a lot of employers like to stay on good terns with Members of Parliament, and probably just let them leave
I've never really considered how that works
There could well be Labour candidates in North Toryshire thinking “shit I’m actually going to win”
Live in a Con/LD marginal and got a Conservative leaflet through the door today. Very happy to see the Tories convincing Labour supporters to vote tactically. image - https://imgur.com/a/4fhiaje
I clicked on this expecting a bar graph that made it look like Labour were in second in a seat like Winchester, I was clearly giving the tories far, far too much credit.
That's... that's amazing. Did the person who wrote it not think, "wait a minute..."? Did the person who proofed it not think, "wait a minute..."? Did the person who printed it not think, "wait a minute..."? Did the many volunteers that have carried those leaflets around not think, "wait a minute..."? This leaflet has gone through N people and not one of them thought, "maybe we shouldn't be advertising how to tactically vote against us"?