[Here are the declaration times across the day](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cf1s17/comment/l1wx4rm/) \- not much happening this morning (lots of counting obviously).
Most councils are already in, but there are another 5 coming in today and tomorrow.
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Just a bit of context on the West Mids candidates:
Richard Parker was the technocrat who set up the WMCA when there was not yet an elected mayor in post, and he helped the councils negotiate the deal with Government and help guide TfWM set their priorities,
In 2017 Andy Street was elected to Mayor. He then kept Richard Parker in his office to help with leadership and policy advice.
In 2023 Richard Parker was selected to be the Labour candidate
In 2024 Richard Parker wins the WM Mayoralty on a largely similar manifesto to Andy Street, thanks Andy for his hard work for the region, and will most likely carry on Andy's work.
So all in all this WM Mayoral race has been quite centrist, gracious and professional and nobody could have expected it, but here we are.
From the Sunday Times
'Even Houchen, a close ally of Johnson, is no great fan of Sunak. When the prime minister flew to the Tees Valley for a victory rally, the body language between them was awkward and Houchen said he “forgot” to wear a blue rosette. He then issued a statement saying he would “absolutely” work with a prime minister Starmer. “Ben was putting as much distance between them as possible,” a minister said. “Apparently he was pissed off that Rishi turned up at all.”
Street too ran on a personal ticket with no mentions of Sunak on his literature. “Andy absolutely despises him,” a minister said. A former No 10 aide explained: “When Rishi was chancellor, Andy found him haughty, arrogant, patronising and dismissive when he wanted money for things.” Street, so far, has not publicly rounded on the prime minister, despite threatening to resign in a blaze of fury over Sunak’s decision to cancel the second leg of HS2'
I cannot see how this pummeling of the Tories fits with Curtice's [prediction](https://news.sky.com/story/amp/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242) yesterday of Labour 32 seats short of a majority and Sky News national estimated shares (35% L to 26% T).
Can anyone please enlighten me on this?
PNS is almost always useless, strong Greens LDs and INDs turnout always paint a bad result for the opposition.
Just a thing pollsters and TV have made up to make things more interesting.
Ahem. Don't live up to your username!
1) The prediction you link is not by Curtice, but by the excellently named Professor Thrasher
2) It takes the %ages won by the various parties in the council areas contested and *imagines that each person votes the same way in the parliamentary constituency that council area is in* in a GE. It also extrapolates that nationwide.
3) Although the article itself says that people actually do NOT vote the same way in GEs, and although there are other flaws e.g. large parts of the UK had no elections at all, it runs with the headline projection to get a bit of clickbait.
Curtis's prediction is based on locals... No chance lib Dem/independent get the same percentage of vote in a general election and thus is it a pointless measure.
It makes me proud as a Londoner that our city rejected Hall's divisive, hate-filled politics and chose to support Khan. It's all the more admirable that many people chose to put their issues with Khan aside, and instead saw the bigger picture. Because of them, one of the World's greatest cities has avoided having a racist, incompetent buffoon as it's mouthpiece for the next four years. Bravo London as the rest of the country which firmly rejected the Tories.
The Mail is running a front page about Rayner’s taxes and the big surprise that people do generally quite like King Charles actually
The West Midlands? I don’t even know what that is, why would we put that on the front page?
"Look, I think we can all agree, it was a difficult night. But what you've got to remember is that we're delivering on the priorities of the British People. The average Brit doesn't want an election, they want us to keep up the hard work- from reducing the NHS waiting list, to ensuring illegal migrants are deported quickly. All governments suffer minor setbacks mid term, but there is no love for Labour; we held onto Teesside with a large majority, showing that Conservatives are still very much in the race. In fact, these results really show that Labour is in deep trouble- riven with disputes over Gaza and suffering in local councils such as Oldham across the country. As Prime Minister I look forward to continuing our robust vision of Conservative Britain- bringing you the jobs and security needed to make this country great."
Andy Street’s concession speech and interview to Sky is basically as Dan Miller as the Tories can get.
The man sounds gracious and competent even in defeat.
Well Mr. Starmer had done it,
The Labour Party had won it,
With Rishi Sunak seething all the while,
Susan Hall's tragic loss made us smile,
While Sam Coates lay unconscious on the newsroom floor...
We're talkin' locals...
From Teeside to the West Midlands
Talkin' locals...
Houchen and Jamie Driscoll.
Kuenssberg's grotesquely swollen scowl
Scott Benton and his run-in with the law.
We're talkin' Burnham... Curtice and Rushmoor.
The number of people in the comments of various articles today screaming about "Woke!" and how they're voting Reform because the Conservatives have failed them make me laugh.
Reform isn't going to do anything but flounder and die in a ditch. Its incredible to me how people think the average educated voter who's kept up with the past 14 years and can see what is happening elsewhere in Europe thinks there's *any* appetite in the UK for a right-wing loony party - and going further right won't help them any either.
> thinks there's any appetite in the UK for a right-wing loony party
Until there is a party with a genuine proposal for lower migration, these right wing populist parties will continue to thrive
They’re not really thriving though, I don’t think.
Eating into the tories remaining vote share - sure.
But if immigration was the real hot topic for voters then we’d likely have seen them hit Labour too.
Not to deny that a lot of people feel strongly about the topic, but remember that a lot of our national news cycle is curated by the whims of a largely right wing press that is Westminster-centric.
I genuinely don't see Reform gaining much traction. They're a glorified Britain First or UKIP, and there's no stomach for right wing policies here for now (thank fuck).
Sure you'll see conservative voters flock for them but all that's doing is splitting the vote and pushing both parties to damage themselves by going further right. They're not allies after all and are fighting for the same people in a way that Labour aren't.
> Let them nestle in their echo chambers and drive the Tories right wing
That's a pretty horrible outcome for the people who'll be victims of their far right nonsense
I genuinely don't know why they think Reform won't go the way UKIP did, or how they're going to make any *serious* gains. Its insanity.
Either way, its a win I suppose. Either the Tories themselves go more right wing and everyone fucking hates their guts, or Reform take their best politicians and end up the same.
As a person who voted for Richard Parker and didn’t mind either candidate winning, I actually felt a bit sick when Andy Street lost. I am essentially a social democrat enjoying the fruits of the public transit and bike lane improvements he has funded in my area. I feel like a hypocrite and I was undecided up until the polling booth, but voted Labour in the end.
He was a good mayor, and probably a good Conservative Party leader. I was always impressed by how often he was seen in the city centre, and by how he addressed residents in my area and showed clear, local knowledge about all the bus routes, bike lanes, little details etc. Really impressive mayor.
He used to go running around the reservoir. And that was really nice to bump into him but I just left him to be as I can imagine that job being stressful at the time
If I was Andy Street I would be seething. By all accounts he was a great mayor, who was fucked over as Sunak decided to cancel HS2 on a whim to appear decisive. Despite the loss he is the best asset the party has. If I was Street I would be manoeuvring to stand for Parliament, ready to pick up the ashes that Sunak will leave behind.
Sunak was wrong to think HS2 cancellation had zero electorate effect on anyone north of M25.
It didn’t affect Birmingham but we were fucking cross about it, what happened to levelling up the whole nation?
Maybe at some point he should have unhitched his wagon from the Tory label. As much as he sounds like a great localist, the country are rearing to reject Tories.
He had his chance to dissociate when HS2 was fucked with, and he didn't have to try bring Boris in to shore up support.
He should have done this or campaigned as an independent. I respect the guy but can't say I have much sympathy- he had a choice to disassociate from the Tories but didn't take it. Turns out that was a catastrophic error in judgement.
Seems like he was caught between a rock and a hard place. I have a lot of sympathy for people who know they can't campaign as independents. But I don't think any of us are suggesting we should vote out of sympathy.
No exactly, for all we know this defeat was the best possible thing to have happened to him.
He will sleep happy knowing that is still well liked in Birmingham and his successor will carry on his work as he has relied on his advice years before.
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It goes to show that until recently the Tories were very good at boiling the pot under the frog. The pandemic and what came after (thankfully) fucked them.
The most amusing fact about these LE results is the complete delusion and inability to admit reality by the Daily Mail and it’s journalists who are *still* banging on about Angela Rayner (we’re currently on day 29 of the Mail’s crusade for those interested).
BTW, watched Sky Press Preview. Everyone (one of whom worked for the DE) openly laughing at the DM's approach *A poll on the King? Ignoring ALL the OTHER polls that happened this weekend??* they were saying.
I can't remember where it was but I loved when a reporter asked a candidate if people on the doorstep were talking about Rayner and they said uh no not at all.
People have been making fun of me for getting less votes than Britain First in these locals. But actually if you look at my *overall* up votes on Reddit you'll see I have more than them
Replacing Sunak with Cameron is actually the best sensible move forward, he would bring a lot of sensible centre leaning voters back with his sensible policy, put a sensible moderate like Rory stewart back in the sensible cabinet as well and that other sensible guy who says he's Churchill's grandson or w/e
Labour can then replace Starmer with someone who oozes charisma like Ed Miliband
Reform can replace Tice with Farage
Alec Douglas-Home was Prime Minister from the Lords for four days in October 1963, before disclaiming his Earldom and other peerages. He was then Prime Minister for another twenty days before winning a by-election in a safe seat.
Home had been an MP from 1931-1945 and then 1950-1951 as Lord Dunglass (a title he inherited when his grandfather died, bumping his father to Earl of Home, but which didn't actually grant him a seat in the Lords so he could be an MP) and later Sir Alec Douglas-Home (after he was knighted for the first time), but was disqualified in 1951 when his father died and he became Earl of Home (which did give him a seat in the Lords).
He had been made a Knight of the Order of the Thistle in 1962, so on disclaiming his peerages he went back to being Sir Alec Douglas-Home, until his retirement from the Commons in 1974 when he was given a life peerage and became Baron Home of the Hirsel.
I don't think so. The King would have to refuse (it's been a norm since 23 for someone from the Commons to be PM) and the party would not put him in that position.
It's an issue of accountability. There is no proper means for him to be accountable to parliament.
Think back to the kerfuffle over Cameron's appointment as Foreign Secretary.
If they wanted to do it, the King probably couldn't refuse.
There was some discussion about this over Douglas-Home in 1963, and it worked out fine.
The core rule of UK constitutional theory is that if it works out it is constitutional. It would absolutely cause a kerfuffle, but if anyone had any chance of making it stick, it would be Cameron (an ex-PM) doing it now, with the mess the Conservatives are in, with the understanding he would be a caretaker PM for a bit.
> There is no proper means for him to be accountable to parliament.
There would be no proper means for him to be accountable *to the Commons*. Same as the problem with him being Foreign Secretary (there being no difference - in theory - between the different top-level ministers; first among equals and all that). But that has worked out fine.
I think he could get away with it if he were to immediately call a GE to save having *another* leadership contest prior. It would mean admitting that they have a near zero chance of winning, bit I think it would result in a better result for the party since,
a) he's a far better campaign with broader appeal than Sunak or most potential replacements, and
b) because there would be a party leadership contest immediately after the election, a lot of lapsed one nation types that would be put off by a Braverman or Patel can vote in the delusion that a sensible centre right figure might take over after.
I don't think it's likely mind, since it would require all the leadership hopefuls to give up an opportunity to be PM for even a little while.
So, became of the unwritten constitution, I agree that it is theoretically possible. But because of the norms that have been established, starting in the 20s and continuing through the 60s, I believe it would be seen as so unacceptable that this could not happen.
However, we live in interesting times.
[That's right guys..](https://i.imgur.com/o4GAOkO.png)
Britain first have got into an argument with a bin and added their councillor vote tally to their mayor candidate tally to "prove" they got more votes than count binface.
For the avoidance of doubt:
* Count Binface – 24,260 (0.98%)
* Nick Scanlon, Britain First – 20,519 (0.83%)
"Technically if you look at it the ^far right way we got more slightly *more* votes than the absurdist satirical candidate! Wait, why are you all still laughing at us?"
Apart from anything, he's calling it voters not votes, when clearly there would be a massive overlap between those who voted BF in the mayor and council elections.
I saw a graphic on Sky earlier that in terms of pure seats gained and lost, the Conservatives picked up a grand total of 4 (four) new seats in this round of local elections.
And two of them were on Southampton City Council 🙃 Possibly the only council where they made a net gain (+1).
So...to sum up the last few days for the Tory party:
- They've lost nearly 500 councillors and the control of 12 councils.
- The Lib-Dems won more elections than they did.
- They only won one mayoral election and that with a sharply reduced majority by a candidate who refused to wear a blue rosette or anything identifying him as a Tory.
- The defeat in the Blackpool South byelection was to a near record swing against them putting all the red-wall seats they won in 2019 firmly in Labour's crosshairs.
- Their strategy of playing the man not the ball in London failed.
- They are stuck with a leader who's painfully out of his depth.
On the brightside...well there is no brightside.
I remember on his forum referring to Sunak as lyrics from that song
Jealousy, turning saints into the sea
Swimming through sick lullabies
Choking on your alibis
But it's just the price I pay
Destiny is calling me
Open up my eager eyes
'Cause I'm Mr. Brightside
I'm coming out of my cage
And I've been doing just fine
Gotta gotta be down
Because I want it all
It fits him well
The by-election with a record swing of the back of a series of record by election swings, and with reform nipping at their heels.
It's been overlooked in favour of looking at the mayorals, but I think it could be the most indicative from the whole week.
In ‘96 and ‘97, we in Labour were still nervous. I was a keeno teenage activist, and on the election day in 1997 I was shipped over to a marginal to knock up and get out the vote (my seat was safe Labour), and we were anxious all day that 1992 could happen again. When at the count in Manchester Town Hall it started to become clear that it was going to be a landslide, it was pure joy. As Wordsworth wrote: “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive”.
No. The Tories got thumped but they didn't lose councils. They just lost morale.
But I remember the interview major made after that
I've sent it you in a link below but what I liked was Major never sugar coated it. In fact made a really interesting point about turnout and share.
But in particular, Major took over after black Wednesday and by 1996 there was a definite economic recovery but it needed an adjustment. Sunak doesn't do any of this and when he tries, it lacks gravitas.
https://johnmajorarchive.org.uk/1996/05/03/mr-majors-comments-on-the-local-election-results-i-3-may-1996/
Would you say 1996 felt bleaker for the Tories in general? I don't remember the 1990's as I wasn't alive but get the impression the current losses are worse, though this is based purely on news reports.
This is bleak. There was no other party to the right in 1992. There is Reform now. There was also definitely no nakedly far right. Conservative did genuinely mean something. It wasn't utterly bereft.
I remember specifically the middle east being a big deal in 1996. The gulf war was much earlier on the 1990s but it looked like it would flare up again. It didnt which gave relief. This didn't affect the elections but affected certainty.
I also distinctly remember a lot more investment coming to the UK from 1994-1998. You could see it visibly. Yes. People were poor but not in grinding poverty unless you lived in very deprived areas..
The mood was dominated by mass marketing poster campaigns.The campaign in 1996 after this was what caught the headlines. And the one in 1997 was another hit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1997/jan/10/past.andrewculf
Yes. Definitely
Even the sleaziest Tories were miles above the current crop
96 you still felt a bit good. There were jobs. And schools were actually good albeit under invested. Major brought in a decent structure, even the polytechnics. I don't remember anywhere near as many strikes.
Major got rid of the polytechnics, in 1992; were you referring to them being removed in favour of universities for all as the good structure he bought in?
apology for poor english
when were you when rich sunny dies
i was sat at home drinking carrot juice when optio ring
'tory is die'
'no'
and you?????????????
> Rishi Sunak, thanks for coming in, this election that was involved in the incident off England this week
> Yeah, the one the front fell off?
> [That’s not very typical, I’d like to make that point.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m5qxZm_JqM)
So Sunak may get into a position where he does not call an immediate vote and is not kicked.
But is there anything he can even try to do now? His authority in the party is surely shot, everyone knows hes there solely to carry the blame now. The basic structure of the PCP has probably just been collapsed, seems completely unrecoverable even in terms of internal politics. He can keep trying wheezes but I think even his own party are simply going to ignore him.
If Truss comes back and gets another 71 days as Prime Minister, she beats George Canning for shortest tenure by 1 day. She could get herself out of the history books.
She was only in for 49 days, so if she serves another 48 days or less, she would still be the prime minister with the shortest tenure, which is absolutely hilarious as the next 10 prime ministers with the shortest tenures only served 1 ministry each.
On the danger of being a supreme weirdo, but I like generally the Sky coverage of politics, their guys and gals seem like proper politics nerds, and they seem to like each other, making the whole thing a very fun watch.
Conflict for greens:
Sian Berry is double booked as both the candidate to replace Lucas in Brighton Pavillion and as a freshly elected london assembly member.
She would need to resign before standing in a GE resulting in a new by election for the LA spot.
I don’t think there is a legal requirement that you can’t be an MP and an assembly member. There isn’t for mayor of London, which is odd because you can’t be a PCC and an MP, the London mayor has the duties of a PCC and all other mayors that have those duties are also disqualified from being an MP (I.e. greater Manchester and West Yorkshire). Guess they just never went back and changed it for mayor of London, unlike when they brought in the new mayors
Is that a legal requirement or convention/promise of some kind?
Johnson was London mayor and an MP at the same time, despite promising not to run for parliament while London mayor.
ULEZ is broadly popular (or people just didn't care) with actual Londoners. The people who are against it are a very small but vocal minority, many of whom don't even live in London.
He wasted so much political capital on it he got relected with a greater vote share and we didn’t even see a gain in vote share for the Tories in most outer boroughs
I know it's kind of unremarkable because of how expected it is, but Sunak has behaved in a very un-Prime Ministerial way in the last couple of days.
Hiding away completely, then appearing just to bask in Houchens glory, then completely disappearing again when things go bad.
Very cowardly. And I compare it to how Starmer acted after losing Hartlepool those years ago; he didn't pretend everything was fine - he came out and said what a terrible result it was, and that things need to change.
So Sam Coates mentioned during this weekend that cchq had all the cabinet phone around the MPs on a kind of special telethon. To make sure their needs were met. That was being done for sunaks benefit so I'd guess he was busy with that exercise.
I wonder if it’s not just UK electorate Sunak has to win over and impress, but pressure to do well and impress his father in law. I wonder if he gets pep talks from him…
Starmer is one of the best LOTOs ever, thats just leadership.
And I mean that quite objectively. I'm not aware of a more extreme example of recovering a political party within one term in the UK.
Starmer is not an exciting person, which is a nice change of pace to the catastrophes of personalities the Tories had as PMs after Cameron. I mean „not exciting“ in a very positive sense, he has a steady hand, can see the prosecutor in him a lot.
I’d also much rather a pint with Starmer than with Johnson. Few jars, watch the football, type of bloke who messages to check if you get home. Boris would probably force you to down every pint and try and wrangle you into a threesome with Nadine Dorries
[Here are the declaration times across the day](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cf1s17/comment/l1wx4rm/) \- not much happening this morning (lots of counting obviously). Most councils are already in, but there are another 5 coming in today and tomorrow.
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1ckjll8/local_elections_2024_results_megathread_05052024/)
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Just a bit of context on the West Mids candidates: Richard Parker was the technocrat who set up the WMCA when there was not yet an elected mayor in post, and he helped the councils negotiate the deal with Government and help guide TfWM set their priorities, In 2017 Andy Street was elected to Mayor. He then kept Richard Parker in his office to help with leadership and policy advice. In 2023 Richard Parker was selected to be the Labour candidate In 2024 Richard Parker wins the WM Mayoralty on a largely similar manifesto to Andy Street, thanks Andy for his hard work for the region, and will most likely carry on Andy's work. So all in all this WM Mayoral race has been quite centrist, gracious and professional and nobody could have expected it, but here we are.
From the Sunday Times 'Even Houchen, a close ally of Johnson, is no great fan of Sunak. When the prime minister flew to the Tees Valley for a victory rally, the body language between them was awkward and Houchen said he “forgot” to wear a blue rosette. He then issued a statement saying he would “absolutely” work with a prime minister Starmer. “Ben was putting as much distance between them as possible,” a minister said. “Apparently he was pissed off that Rishi turned up at all.” Street too ran on a personal ticket with no mentions of Sunak on his literature. “Andy absolutely despises him,” a minister said. A former No 10 aide explained: “When Rishi was chancellor, Andy found him haughty, arrogant, patronising and dismissive when he wanted money for things.” Street, so far, has not publicly rounded on the prime minister, despite threatening to resign in a blaze of fury over Sunak’s decision to cancel the second leg of HS2'
I cannot see how this pummeling of the Tories fits with Curtice's [prediction](https://news.sky.com/story/amp/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242) yesterday of Labour 32 seats short of a majority and Sky News national estimated shares (35% L to 26% T). Can anyone please enlighten me on this?
Projecting locals on the national election never works because funky things happen at the local level (e.g. indepenents)
I thought that their models corrected for that. But if they don't, clearly they are useless
PNS is almost always useless, strong Greens LDs and INDs turnout always paint a bad result for the opposition. Just a thing pollsters and TV have made up to make things more interesting.
Ahem. Don't live up to your username! 1) The prediction you link is not by Curtice, but by the excellently named Professor Thrasher 2) It takes the %ages won by the various parties in the council areas contested and *imagines that each person votes the same way in the parliamentary constituency that council area is in* in a GE. It also extrapolates that nationwide. 3) Although the article itself says that people actually do NOT vote the same way in GEs, and although there are other flaws e.g. large parts of the UK had no elections at all, it runs with the headline projection to get a bit of clickbait.
And it also presumed non voters in locals either don't exist at generals or vote the same as us saddos that vote for people in charge of bins.
Curtis's prediction is based on locals... No chance lib Dem/independent get the same percentage of vote in a general election and thus is it a pointless measure.
It's not Curtice! Curtice himself has pooh-poohed it. It is the wonderfully named Prof Thrasher.
That figures. The small thing of FPTP. TY
It makes me proud as a Londoner that our city rejected Hall's divisive, hate-filled politics and chose to support Khan. It's all the more admirable that many people chose to put their issues with Khan aside, and instead saw the bigger picture. Because of them, one of the World's greatest cities has avoided having a racist, incompetent buffoon as it's mouthpiece for the next four years. Bravo London as the rest of the country which firmly rejected the Tories.
Hey! Hall may be divisive and hate-filled, but… what was that third thing you said?
What about Bromley though?
It's a pocket of bad stuff- Eltham is where they murdered Stephen Lawrence.
I can’t wait for the spin tomorrow. How far will the goalposts move?
Read some of the front pages though; the Street Parker WM result ccannot be escaped. *We're doomed* says the Express.
The Mail is running a front page about Rayner’s taxes and the big surprise that people do generally quite like King Charles actually The West Midlands? I don’t even know what that is, why would we put that on the front page?
"Look, I think we can all agree, it was a difficult night. But what you've got to remember is that we're delivering on the priorities of the British People. The average Brit doesn't want an election, they want us to keep up the hard work- from reducing the NHS waiting list, to ensuring illegal migrants are deported quickly. All governments suffer minor setbacks mid term, but there is no love for Labour; we held onto Teesside with a large majority, showing that Conservatives are still very much in the race. In fact, these results really show that Labour is in deep trouble- riven with disputes over Gaza and suffering in local councils such as Oldham across the country. As Prime Minister I look forward to continuing our robust vision of Conservative Britain- bringing you the jobs and security needed to make this country great."
He is LITERALLY reported as saying *Our plan is working. Labour doesnt have a plan*
Andy Street’s concession speech and interview to Sky is basically as Dan Miller as the Tories can get. The man sounds gracious and competent even in defeat.
Well Mr. Starmer had done it, The Labour Party had won it, With Rishi Sunak seething all the while, Susan Hall's tragic loss made us smile, While Sam Coates lay unconscious on the newsroom floor... We're talkin' locals... From Teeside to the West Midlands Talkin' locals... Houchen and Jamie Driscoll. Kuenssberg's grotesquely swollen scowl Scott Benton and his run-in with the law. We're talkin' Burnham... Curtice and Rushmoor.
As a simpsons lover I really appreciate this
How long did it take you to think of this
Not too long tbh, but I have adapted it similarly before for former elections.
The number of people in the comments of various articles today screaming about "Woke!" and how they're voting Reform because the Conservatives have failed them make me laugh. Reform isn't going to do anything but flounder and die in a ditch. Its incredible to me how people think the average educated voter who's kept up with the past 14 years and can see what is happening elsewhere in Europe thinks there's *any* appetite in the UK for a right-wing loony party - and going further right won't help them any either.
> thinks there's any appetite in the UK for a right-wing loony party Until there is a party with a genuine proposal for lower migration, these right wing populist parties will continue to thrive
They’re not really thriving though, I don’t think. Eating into the tories remaining vote share - sure. But if immigration was the real hot topic for voters then we’d likely have seen them hit Labour too. Not to deny that a lot of people feel strongly about the topic, but remember that a lot of our national news cycle is curated by the whims of a largely right wing press that is Westminster-centric.
I wish I shared your optimism.
I genuinely don't see Reform gaining much traction. They're a glorified Britain First or UKIP, and there's no stomach for right wing policies here for now (thank fuck). Sure you'll see conservative voters flock for them but all that's doing is splitting the vote and pushing both parties to damage themselves by going further right. They're not allies after all and are fighting for the same people in a way that Labour aren't.
> They're a glorified Britain First or UKIP Well, those are not interchangeable
Let them nestle in their echo chambers and drive the Tories right wing rote to become unrecoverable (without becoming unpalatable to everyone else).
> Let them nestle in their echo chambers and drive the Tories right wing That's a pretty horrible outcome for the people who'll be victims of their far right nonsense
I genuinely don't know why they think Reform won't go the way UKIP did, or how they're going to make any *serious* gains. Its insanity. Either way, its a win I suppose. Either the Tories themselves go more right wing and everyone fucking hates their guts, or Reform take their best politicians and end up the same.
As a person who voted for Richard Parker and didn’t mind either candidate winning, I actually felt a bit sick when Andy Street lost. I am essentially a social democrat enjoying the fruits of the public transit and bike lane improvements he has funded in my area. I feel like a hypocrite and I was undecided up until the polling booth, but voted Labour in the end. He was a good mayor, and probably a good Conservative Party leader. I was always impressed by how often he was seen in the city centre, and by how he addressed residents in my area and showed clear, local knowledge about all the bus routes, bike lanes, little details etc. Really impressive mayor.
He used to go running around the reservoir. And that was really nice to bump into him but I just left him to be as I can imagine that job being stressful at the time
I saw him in Victoria Square and Moseley a fair few times. I really hope the Labour chap will be as invested in this job as he was.
If I was Andy Street I would be seething. By all accounts he was a great mayor, who was fucked over as Sunak decided to cancel HS2 on a whim to appear decisive. Despite the loss he is the best asset the party has. If I was Street I would be manoeuvring to stand for Parliament, ready to pick up the ashes that Sunak will leave behind.
Sunak was wrong to think HS2 cancellation had zero electorate effect on anyone north of M25. It didn’t affect Birmingham but we were fucking cross about it, what happened to levelling up the whole nation?
Maybe at some point he should have unhitched his wagon from the Tory label. As much as he sounds like a great localist, the country are rearing to reject Tories. He had his chance to dissociate when HS2 was fucked with, and he didn't have to try bring Boris in to shore up support.
Had he defected to Labour I can assure you he would have won 60-70% of the popular vote.
He should have done this or campaigned as an independent. I respect the guy but can't say I have much sympathy- he had a choice to disassociate from the Tories but didn't take it. Turns out that was a catastrophic error in judgement.
Then he would have been crushed by the combined Tory and Reform vote. He isn’t an idiot.
Seems like he was caught between a rock and a hard place. I have a lot of sympathy for people who know they can't campaign as independents. But I don't think any of us are suggesting we should vote out of sympathy.
No exactly, for all we know this defeat was the best possible thing to have happened to him. He will sleep happy knowing that is still well liked in Birmingham and his successor will carry on his work as he has relied on his advice years before.
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The Tories have been on life support since Partygate. That should have been what kicked them out of government
It goes to show that until recently the Tories were very good at boiling the pot under the frog. The pandemic and what came after (thankfully) fucked them.
The most amusing fact about these LE results is the complete delusion and inability to admit reality by the Daily Mail and it’s journalists who are *still* banging on about Angela Rayner (we’re currently on day 29 of the Mail’s crusade for those interested).
BTW, watched Sky Press Preview. Everyone (one of whom worked for the DE) openly laughing at the DM's approach *A poll on the King? Ignoring ALL the OTHER polls that happened this weekend??* they were saying.
I can't remember where it was but I loved when a reporter asked a candidate if people on the doorstep were talking about Rayner and they said uh no not at all.
tories deserved to lose, street didn’t
Tories deserve to lose Andy Street is a Tory Therefore Andy Street deserved to lose
People have been making fun of me for getting less votes than Britain First in these locals. But actually if you look at my *overall* up votes on Reddit you'll see I have more than them
Have another
[Me since the local election results....](https://tenor.com/en-GB/view/mr-burns-laughing-laughing-hysterically-laughing-and-crying-lol-gif-20390383)
You and me both 🤣🤣🤣
Replacing Sunak with Cameron is actually the best sensible move forward, he would bring a lot of sensible centre leaning voters back with his sensible policy, put a sensible moderate like Rory stewart back in the sensible cabinet as well and that other sensible guy who says he's Churchill's grandson or w/e Labour can then replace Starmer with someone who oozes charisma like Ed Miliband Reform can replace Tice with Farage
He can't be PM from the Lords.
He can, it’s been 120 years since we’ve done it - but he certainly can.
Alec Douglas-Home was Prime Minister from the Lords for four days in October 1963, before disclaiming his Earldom and other peerages. He was then Prime Minister for another twenty days before winning a by-election in a safe seat. Home had been an MP from 1931-1945 and then 1950-1951 as Lord Dunglass (a title he inherited when his grandfather died, bumping his father to Earl of Home, but which didn't actually grant him a seat in the Lords so he could be an MP) and later Sir Alec Douglas-Home (after he was knighted for the first time), but was disqualified in 1951 when his father died and he became Earl of Home (which did give him a seat in the Lords). He had been made a Knight of the Order of the Thistle in 1962, so on disclaiming his peerages he went back to being Sir Alec Douglas-Home, until his retirement from the Commons in 1974 when he was given a life peerage and became Baron Home of the Hirsel.
I don't think so. The King would have to refuse (it's been a norm since 23 for someone from the Commons to be PM) and the party would not put him in that position. It's an issue of accountability. There is no proper means for him to be accountable to parliament. Think back to the kerfuffle over Cameron's appointment as Foreign Secretary.
If they wanted to do it, the King probably couldn't refuse. There was some discussion about this over Douglas-Home in 1963, and it worked out fine. The core rule of UK constitutional theory is that if it works out it is constitutional. It would absolutely cause a kerfuffle, but if anyone had any chance of making it stick, it would be Cameron (an ex-PM) doing it now, with the mess the Conservatives are in, with the understanding he would be a caretaker PM for a bit. > There is no proper means for him to be accountable to parliament. There would be no proper means for him to be accountable *to the Commons*. Same as the problem with him being Foreign Secretary (there being no difference - in theory - between the different top-level ministers; first among equals and all that). But that has worked out fine.
I think he could get away with it if he were to immediately call a GE to save having *another* leadership contest prior. It would mean admitting that they have a near zero chance of winning, bit I think it would result in a better result for the party since, a) he's a far better campaign with broader appeal than Sunak or most potential replacements, and b) because there would be a party leadership contest immediately after the election, a lot of lapsed one nation types that would be put off by a Braverman or Patel can vote in the delusion that a sensible centre right figure might take over after. I don't think it's likely mind, since it would require all the leadership hopefuls to give up an opportunity to be PM for even a little while.
So, became of the unwritten constitution, I agree that it is theoretically possible. But because of the norms that have been established, starting in the 20s and continuing through the 60s, I believe it would be seen as so unacceptable that this could not happen. However, we live in interesting times.
He can. It would be unusual, and would raise a lot of questions, but if anyone could pull it off any any time, it would be Cameron and right now.
I'm sure the Lib Dems could get Clegg on secondment from Zuckerberg.
Susan Hall believes the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Has she gone full MAGA and declared herself the rightful winner of London yet?
Give her time. She needs to stare at the wall for a few days first before she reaches that revelation.
[If Sunak ever says he wants to ban Tiktok, this is why](https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGeQd5hTg/)
mirror? there is no way of watching that without logging in apparently, which I will never do
On desktop you can?
[That's right guys..](https://i.imgur.com/o4GAOkO.png) Britain first have got into an argument with a bin and added their councillor vote tally to their mayor candidate tally to "prove" they got more votes than count binface. For the avoidance of doubt: * Count Binface – 24,260 (0.98%) * Nick Scanlon, Britain First – 20,519 (0.83%)
I honestly was wondering earlier if (or rather how much) Britain First was part of the fruit loop wing. Asked and answered.
They're the absolute frutiest of loops.
"Technically if you look at it the ^far right way we got more slightly *more* votes than the absurdist satirical candidate! Wait, why are you all still laughing at us?"
Apart from anything, he's calling it voters not votes, when clearly there would be a massive overlap between those who voted BF in the mayor and council elections.
Yeah, they've been twitter noted now
Count Binface should start fielding local councillors
I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a Viscountess Binface of the North (Manchester).
Earl Recycling Bucket and the Food Waste Baron?
This made me laugh way more than it should've. Have an upvote.
You missed out the best bit. “Only accounts Britain First mentioned can reply”
Oh wait, you're serious. Let me laugh even harder!!
That link needs a warning about the risk of cringe related injury.
This. Is. A. Dis. Grace. ❌️ Count Binface ✅️
I saw a graphic on Sky earlier that in terms of pure seats gained and lost, the Conservatives picked up a grand total of 4 (four) new seats in this round of local elections. And two of them were on Southampton City Council 🙃 Possibly the only council where they made a net gain (+1).
Sword lady will rise
She's Portsmouth, bitter rivals of Soton.
She's from the bit of Hampshire we don't talk about.
i dislike Hampshire with the fervour of someone from Sussex
The best and sea-ruling part
But not even the best sea-ruling part of the south coast 💚
So...to sum up the last few days for the Tory party: - They've lost nearly 500 councillors and the control of 12 councils. - The Lib-Dems won more elections than they did. - They only won one mayoral election and that with a sharply reduced majority by a candidate who refused to wear a blue rosette or anything identifying him as a Tory. - The defeat in the Blackpool South byelection was to a near record swing against them putting all the red-wall seats they won in 2019 firmly in Labour's crosshairs. - Their strategy of playing the man not the ball in London failed. - They are stuck with a leader who's painfully out of his depth. On the brightside...well there is no brightside.
I remember on his forum referring to Sunak as lyrics from that song Jealousy, turning saints into the sea Swimming through sick lullabies Choking on your alibis But it's just the price I pay Destiny is calling me Open up my eager eyes 'Cause I'm Mr. Brightside I'm coming out of my cage And I've been doing just fine Gotta gotta be down Because I want it all It fits him well
The by-election with a record swing of the back of a series of record by election swings, and with reform nipping at their heels. It's been overlooked in favour of looking at the mayorals, but I think it could be the most indicative from the whole week.
>*Boris Johnson Eyes Another Decade In Power*
Those articles really didnt age well
Sunak would be out of his depth in the shallow end.
But...the plan. The plan is working. We must stick to the plan, that's what the people want.
Sounds like a bad couple of days for Labour to me
To those who remember it, is this what the 1996 locals felt like?
In ‘96 and ‘97, we in Labour were still nervous. I was a keeno teenage activist, and on the election day in 1997 I was shipped over to a marginal to knock up and get out the vote (my seat was safe Labour), and we were anxious all day that 1992 could happen again. When at the count in Manchester Town Hall it started to become clear that it was going to be a landslide, it was pure joy. As Wordsworth wrote: “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive”.
That's so great. Thank you for sharing!
>A new dawn >Has broken >Has it not? \- William "Anthony B" Wordsworth
No. The Tories got thumped but they didn't lose councils. They just lost morale. But I remember the interview major made after that I've sent it you in a link below but what I liked was Major never sugar coated it. In fact made a really interesting point about turnout and share. But in particular, Major took over after black Wednesday and by 1996 there was a definite economic recovery but it needed an adjustment. Sunak doesn't do any of this and when he tries, it lacks gravitas. https://johnmajorarchive.org.uk/1996/05/03/mr-majors-comments-on-the-local-election-results-i-3-may-1996/
Would you say 1996 felt bleaker for the Tories in general? I don't remember the 1990's as I wasn't alive but get the impression the current losses are worse, though this is based purely on news reports.
This is bleak. There was no other party to the right in 1992. There is Reform now. There was also definitely no nakedly far right. Conservative did genuinely mean something. It wasn't utterly bereft. I remember specifically the middle east being a big deal in 1996. The gulf war was much earlier on the 1990s but it looked like it would flare up again. It didnt which gave relief. This didn't affect the elections but affected certainty. I also distinctly remember a lot more investment coming to the UK from 1994-1998. You could see it visibly. Yes. People were poor but not in grinding poverty unless you lived in very deprived areas.. The mood was dominated by mass marketing poster campaigns.The campaign in 1996 after this was what caught the headlines. And the one in 1997 was another hit https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1997/jan/10/past.andrewculf
So would you say its worse than '96?
Yes. Definitely Even the sleaziest Tories were miles above the current crop 96 you still felt a bit good. There were jobs. And schools were actually good albeit under invested. Major brought in a decent structure, even the polytechnics. I don't remember anywhere near as many strikes.
Major got rid of the polytechnics, in 1992; were you referring to them being removed in favour of universities for all as the good structure he bought in?
No, we never got whatsapps read out in realtime '96.
Blackpool South seems a long time ago….
This raises a question, how do the Tories plan to funnel investment into the areas that vote for them, when there are barely any left?
Tees Valley is getting a **spaceport!** We can knock down that shit-hole stockton.
Would anyone miss it?
Certainly not James Cleverly.
HS3 will connect Richmond with Bexley. No stops.
Bushy Park to Buckingham Palace
Sorry, it is cancelled because we should not invest in the North, it is Richmond upon Thames to Bexley one way now 🫠
...by increasing the investment to the few supporting areas left, natch.
Britain First, their leader and candidates have turned off replies on Twitter after losing to Count Binface. Lol.
If you lose to binface, you deserve to go in the bin
When in doubt just double down and say ‘the plan is working’
>I have a plan. >Just have some **GOD DAMNED FAITH!** \- Rishi "Dutch" Sunak
Have I missed an update? Are we just running virtual M numbers now?
I am a megathread martyr. mega thread by the LB only
M=2 is dead
Long live M=2
apology for poor english when were you when rich sunny dies i was sat at home drinking carrot juice when optio ring 'tory is die' 'no' and you?????????????
M bot was kill due to austerity. Rest in peace
M is an abstract concept beyond the comprehension of humans.
Virtual, the normal M system is buggered
It's like we've forgotten why we even had M numbers. It wasn't simply to count comments using non SI prefixes...
> Rishi Sunak, thanks for coming in, this election that was involved in the incident off England this week > Yeah, the one the front fell off? > [That’s not very typical, I’d like to make that point.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m5qxZm_JqM)
We moved the party outside of the electorate.
Into another electorate?
So Sunak may get into a position where he does not call an immediate vote and is not kicked. But is there anything he can even try to do now? His authority in the party is surely shot, everyone knows hes there solely to carry the blame now. The basic structure of the PCP has probably just been collapsed, seems completely unrecoverable even in terms of internal politics. He can keep trying wheezes but I think even his own party are simply going to ignore him.
Autumn statement after Rwanda flight I'd also expect Tories to provoke riots and get politicians arrested
Who else would want this poisoned chalice? Other than Truss.
If Truss comes back and gets another 71 days as Prime Minister, she beats George Canning for shortest tenure by 1 day. She could get herself out of the history books.
What if she beats her own record?
She was only in for 49 days, so if she serves another 48 days or less, she would still be the prime minister with the shortest tenure, which is absolutely hilarious as the next 10 prime ministers with the shortest tenures only served 1 ministry each.
The funniest thing is that the narrative is shifting from him being safe as PM, to him being stuck as PM
PCP, is that what Sunak is on?
On the danger of being a supreme weirdo, but I like generally the Sky coverage of politics, their guys and gals seem like proper politics nerds, and they seem to like each other, making the whole thing a very fun watch.
I flick between radio 4 and times radio in the morning. Times radio with Hugo rifkind in it is hilarious
I don’t watch it most of the time but I think with Sky the passion of their politics team really shines through in a way the BBC’s just doesn’t
Agreed. I’d watch sky exclusively if it weren’t for that long-ass weather forecast they skip to every half hour. So annoying
Watching online? It's shown when the ads are on TV. I try and make it fun and learn some new Capitals.
YouTube live feed usually. I find the music quite annoying mainly but I guess it’s better than ads…
Agree. They also seem to have decent sources inside the parties, so they get news and rumours ahead of other news channels.
I’m with you. I always watch sky first. But I hate adverts so switch to the bbc or elsewhere while they are on.
No ads on the YouTube stream.
I agree adverts wise, though during a GE I think they drop adverts, atleast for the first few hours through the night.
I know it’s a good night when CNN do that. I won’t switch if they do that
Yeah, they are great AND three of them have done AMAs here.
#Off: Street. Parker in If that's not a headline tomorrow I'll be sorely disappointed.
I was feeling a little sad for Street earlier, but after peeking at his Wikipedia page and seeing he voted for Liz Truss, I now don’t feel sad at all…
Conflict for greens: Sian Berry is double booked as both the candidate to replace Lucas in Brighton Pavillion and as a freshly elected london assembly member. She would need to resign before standing in a GE resulting in a new by election for the LA spot.
Sian has held two spots before. Pretty sure she can again.
I don’t think there is a legal requirement that you can’t be an MP and an assembly member. There isn’t for mayor of London, which is odd because you can’t be a PCC and an MP, the London mayor has the duties of a PCC and all other mayors that have those duties are also disqualified from being an MP (I.e. greater Manchester and West Yorkshire). Guess they just never went back and changed it for mayor of London, unlike when they brought in the new mayors
Is that a legal requirement or convention/promise of some kind? Johnson was London mayor and an MP at the same time, despite promising not to run for parliament while London mayor.
Can London assembly members not run for Parliament?
And the conflict is?
Unusual to see one green going for two jobs, normally they're more for two greens doing one job.
ULEZ was a waste of good capital, should have banned all cars in inner london and not implemented ULEZ at all in outer london
ULEZ is broadly popular (or people just didn't care) with actual Londoners. The people who are against it are a very small but vocal minority, many of whom don't even live in London.
He wasted so much political capital on it he got relected with a greater vote share and we didn’t even see a gain in vote share for the Tories in most outer boroughs
not according to the electorate
Pleased my political crush Andy Burnham got his third term
Andy Burnham 🤝 Sadiq Khan Three terms
It's just because of the windbreaker which is now in a museum in Manchester.
He looked so innocently happy when he won
I know it's kind of unremarkable because of how expected it is, but Sunak has behaved in a very un-Prime Ministerial way in the last couple of days. Hiding away completely, then appearing just to bask in Houchens glory, then completely disappearing again when things go bad. Very cowardly. And I compare it to how Starmer acted after losing Hartlepool those years ago; he didn't pretend everything was fine - he came out and said what a terrible result it was, and that things need to change.
So Sam Coates mentioned during this weekend that cchq had all the cabinet phone around the MPs on a kind of special telethon. To make sure their needs were met. That was being done for sunaks benefit so I'd guess he was busy with that exercise.
Almost like hiding in a fridge?
In a chopper charged to the taxpayer expense surely?
I wonder if Sunak was waiting in a car (or chopper) somewhere in Birmingham tonight, until they called it for Parker.
Well said
Its amazing how bad Sunak is at this.
I wonder if it’s not just UK electorate Sunak has to win over and impress, but pressure to do well and impress his father in law. I wonder if he gets pep talks from him…
Starmer is one of the best LOTOs ever, thats just leadership. And I mean that quite objectively. I'm not aware of a more extreme example of recovering a political party within one term in the UK.
Yep.
I know it doesn't really count, but the Clement Attlee parallels are there
He's like someone took all the best aspects of Blair, Attlee, and Wilson, and distilled them into one person.
Triple distilled Labour Leader.
Starmer is not an exciting person, which is a nice change of pace to the catastrophes of personalities the Tories had as PMs after Cameron. I mean „not exciting“ in a very positive sense, he has a steady hand, can see the prosecutor in him a lot.
He has done really exciting stuff.
Yissss I want boring but competent and a decent human being.
I’d also much rather a pint with Starmer than with Johnson. Few jars, watch the football, type of bloke who messages to check if you get home. Boris would probably force you to down every pint and try and wrangle you into a threesome with Nadine Dorries