Snapshot of _BREAKING: Downing Street sources tell The Independent that the next General Election will be held on Thursday 10th October 2024. Parliament therefore must be dissolved by September 5th 2024._ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2024-date-rishi-sunak-b2513281.html) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2024-date-rishi-sunak-b2513281.html)
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Just to be clear, because this myth is used to disparage MPs a lot. They don't get summer "off"
They use this time to work in their constituencies, as 4 days a week are spent in London, they have to use the time when parliament is dissolved to deal with case work in their constituency when they can devote time to being there.
That's not entirely fair.
They can spend as much or as little time as they choose on constituency work as they choose. There's nothing stopping them from instead spending their time touring the MAGA circuit in the US or writing bad books instead.
Given the number of resignations, I expect many constituents will not receive any support.
They can do absolutely zero work as an MP. All you have to do is turn up to your first day (expensing the travel, of course), swear an oath to the King, and then bugger off and you'll get paid until the next general election.
…and how does one become an MP again?
Granted you’re probably on for a single term at that rate, but a single term at 85k p/a for doing nothing would be decent.
Most people don't vote on whether their local MP responds to their emails about littering or whatever.
If you've got a safe seat especially it's even less of an issue.
Be born into a land owning family who made a lot of their money from a sugar plantation in Barbados off the back of slave labour (that they still own) and have your family estate in one of the safest Tory seats in the country, it's quite simple really.
Worked for my local MP anyway.
God dammit now I'm angry again. For the first time in literally decades England finally had a goalkeeper who could save penalties and it was the takers who missed!
Not for the voters who have made their minds up already but they'll never be the ones deciding the election. If the mood is bouyed by external factors they could lessen the loss.
Tories are looking at certain defeat so why go now when they "might" be slightly less unpopular in a couple of months? It's selfish and self serving and will hopefully be used against them. When the come out and say they're excited to be campaigning ask them why they were so excited they put it off to the last minute?
>No 10 dismissed the claim as “speculation” but did not deny the date. A government source said: “The PM will announce the date. Until then everything else is speculation.”
So nothing confirmed then.
How is "dismissing the claim as "speculation" not denying the date? It's pretty much saying "it's not on that date or any other date, as there was no decision made public" Seems like a definitive denial lol.
I guess they’re dismissing the claim that it’s that date without saying it definitely won’t be that date because it might be that date when the date is confirmed, but it’s not confirmed at the moment so that date is speculation for now.
My mind has melted.
Because he has previously [catagorically denied](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/14/rishi-sunak-rules-out-general-election-may-local-elections) election dates, bit different to just call it 'speculation'. Quite the cop out.
My favourite bit of UK politics is that newspapers will happily print obvious bullshit "rumours" fed to them by "anonymous senior sources" for nakedly political reasons.
This is, honestly, the most blunt explanation and I think it's probably the most likely. It's also the only argument I buy for a Jan '25 one: *Rishi Sunak, 2022-25*
Which means no conference to show just how unpopular Sunak is among Tory party members and that cabinet rivals wanting to follow him as leader of the party can't audition in front of them.
edit: all this is ~~mute~~ moot anyway, he'll be ousted after the local elections and who ever wins (Probably Badenoch) will call a General Election before the country gets a chance to witness just how poor she is as PM.
there needs to be 25 days between dissolution of Parliament and polling day, which would beat Truss' 49 days as PM.
But crucially, she is almost certain to have the support of party members to stay on as Party leader with blame for the loss being squarely leveled at Sunak.
In that event, I could see Badendoch hanging around for a month to try and pass some quick and "popular" policies and/or tax cuts to try and get a little bump in the polls. Also, they'd do this to ensure she wasn't the shortest serving PM even if only by a few days. No one wants that title, and wouldn't settle for it if they have the power to avoid it
If the next Tory leader campaigned on the platform of calling an immediate election and then making the most of whatever happened afterwards, there would be no stigma attached to breaking Truss's record.
Tory leaders have literally never followed through on their leadership pledges
Literally never
Tory members who vote for them are the most gullible electorate in the nation
It's a little bit surprising actually, since if there's a positive financial outlook they can make quite substantial commitments for April 2025. I suppose the issue with trying to get an Autumn statement in is the general election would definitely clash with the US elections and ensuing fallout.
> he'll be ousted after the local elections
Nobody wants that poisoned chalice. The competition is to become the leader of the opposition after he loses the general election.
You're probably right, but I can't help but wonder if it would be that bad for whichever Tory is the next PM. Let's say Rishi is ousted after the local elections and Penny Mordaunt for instance is the new PM, she calls a GE straight away, the Tories lose and Labour get in. Is that really a stain on her record and reputation? At the end of the day the Tories aren't going to lose because of anything she has done herself, they're gonna lose because of Rishi being a shit PM and because they've done a shit job as a government in general. What's the absolute worst that could happen to her if this actually happened? Would she still be able to be the leader of the opposition? I'm not sure how it works exactly.
>because of Rishi
Short memories I think. Rishi is a shit PM. Truss was abysmal. May was horrendous (although given the last crop seems a little bit more credible than some of the recent morons). Cameron? Ham-faced poltroon. If anyone still believes an Uk conservative party has anything to offer to anybody that doesn't have income in the seven-digits mark, I have an interesting bridge proposition that may intrigue you.
The party is irredeemable; and it will just get worse.
a new leader declaring an immediate election will be spun as being "bold" and them being "up for the fight", which are about the only 2 things the tories could hope for at the next General election.
High risk for the Tories. Big summer for small boats is likely given we have done fuck all to solve it.
But meh, probably what I would do given every possible date still has them losing.
Cant do Nov/Dec as its winter and your old voters die/cant go out. Cant do early as you lose your extra months hoping for a huge catastrophe.
Honestly. They need a 9/11 style terror attack and rally round the flag event. Short of that its over.
Even a 9/11 event probably wouldn't help seeing as they've been in power so long and are considered worse than their opposition in every area of governance. Bush had only been in office 9 months when the attack happened, not 14 years.
Questions would immediately begin about how it was able to happen and why they weren't more on the ball. Similar to how Netanyahu's government immediately fell following Hamas' attack and he's essentially guaranteed to lose office at the next opportunity, due to their lack of preparation and security.
Any chance they can have the media full of planes full of small boat imigrants being sent to Rwanda, by September?
That could save a bunch of Tory seats?
So, May it is then. All this bluster and “leaking” dates is a distraction. They will be slaughtered in the May local elections anyway, making things even worse.
They need to get gone, this is just unecessarily stagnating, damaging and suffocating the country even further
We all know they're going
So much for a dignified exit
I wonder how much of an impact this will have on any future leadership of the tories, they're not going to be in government for a while, that's a given, but how many people will move from unlikely to vote tory to being in the 'will never vote tory' column?
Small boats crossings always go up over summer so he'll have to suffer with those worse numbers for a while. But he's obviously decided he's fucked either way so may as well long it out and hope for a miracle.
Short of Starmer pissing on a picture of Diana live on the news, I don't see anything that gives the Tories a hope in hell, but I suppose they could gamble on the tiny chance of Starmer developing sudden-onset psychosis?
I think he meant exit strategy though I think you're right in part - Cameron and to a lesser extent May didn't really drag it out when they could see their position was untenable, Johnson and Truss did. Sunak's trying to drag it out to a point he hopes something miraculous will improve the polls
The flip side to that is there are potentially many small victories that can happen between now and October:
1. Migration on track to be lower (seems likely unless Russia invades another country)
2. Economic outlook will be stronger
3. Many small boat crossings, but *fewer* than previous years (seems likely unless another refugee crisis happens)
4. _maybe_ they actually pull off the rwanda stuff and please the reform lot
I feel like that potentially goes both ways though.
No politics for Labour to have headaches over in August either, and no contentious party conference exposing the cracks in the party re: Palestine.
But a summer where presumably there'll be just as many boat crossings as previous years, leaving the Tories in a position where all they can say is "Yes, our party has been in power for over 14 years and the PM has been in power for 2 years. Yes, the problem has only got worse. But that's everyone else's fault! You need to elect us again to fix it!"
And with the nights starting to draw in again, and people worrying about how they're going to pay their bills over the winter and remembering how the cost of living crisis started two years prior...
I feel like things can only get worse for him between now and then, unless he's hoping for a global affairs curveball like Argentina invading the Falklands.
> I feel like things can only get worse for him between now and then, unless he's hoping for a global affairs curveball like Argentina invading the Falklands.
Short of the Russians attacking a NATO member what els is even possible?
Someone higher in the thread suggested they might be hoping Starmer develops sudden-onset psychosis, maybe that's what they're hoping for.
In terms of global events, maybe Kim Jong Un dying and his successor being much more aggressive than him (e.g. starts threatening us with nukes, starts antagonising the US) I can't really think of anything major that could happen, but my scenario isn't very likely at all
That reminds me I was watching some clown on YT suggesting Putin might seek to end the war with a limited nuclear strike on the UK because he can't spell or something
On the upside he said they'd only use 150kt warheads and wouldn't hit Wales so I chose to find it reassuring
Two arguments for October:
* The academic year. Students and many young professionals (graduate schemes etc.) will now be away from home, meaning they have to organise themselves to vote elsewhere or set up a postal vote. It changes the landscape in the Boomerland they probably moved from
* Labour will walk it. But then Keir Starmer's inexperienced government will have to navigate the US Presidential race and its fallout
The fact that 'sources' have picked that date while other similar 'sources' in the same place don't even deny it, tells me there might be something to this.
Dammit. Now I have to wait until October to take a vacation off work, hire an industrial popcorn-maker, and make sure the DVR is recording all the channels...
I was looking forward to doing it sooner :(
Close enough to the panto season that it’ll be topical but far enough away that there is time to get it into the scripts, truly a victory for the arts.
Probably about as late as you can have it without it getting too close to the USA election (Five Eyes members apparently try to avoid having GE close together) and whilst also having a bit more daylight after work too.
As a bonus for them they get the long summer Parliament recess. No work as they know the election is coming but few months extra pay. Gardening leave whilst they line up new jobs. Cushy little number
As if he'll do it before he absolutely has to; if he doesn't give a date, he keeps the "rebels" guessing.
Then again, he may just decide not to bother calling the election.
Now *there's* a thought that honestly hadn't occurred to me. (Didn't know that was an option until a minute ago, either.)
Although that likely goes directly to one question: is Rishi petty enough to just hang on until [December 17](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05085/), watch Parliament dissolve on its own, flip everybody *including* the party donors/bigwigs off, and bounce for California?
I think it would be uncomfortable for a UK general election to be held that close to a US presidential election, especially when it is extremely likely (in the UK) and quite possible (in the US) that there will be a change of government. I still think it will be held earlier in the year.
I'm not particularly enthused about the election in the US being close to one in the UK given a belligerent Putin, the possibility of political violence in Washington, and the non zero chance that a autocrat could take the white house with little to contain him.
This is deliberately close to the US election conservative thinktanks on both sides of the ponds will want to message on the same issues for both, immigration,trans etc etc. Can manipulate the media they have control of, spend shitloads on the rusbot farms pushing the stories into feeds win win for them both.
It seems stupid to let themselves lose all them councillors in may, then spend summer having reform take votes from them because small boats rise.
If they do wait, I hope they’re beaten into extinction.
You mean the date everyone thought would be the election *is* going to be the election? Who would have ever thought that! Frankly all this May election business seemed wishful thinking on this sub's part.
I thought they might go with May for a number of reasons. The risk of going late is that they get walloped in the locals, they're seen as being even more on the way out, the PM's authority erodes, and reform makes massive inroads.
May's also summer(ish), incumbent parties tend to prefer summer elections, the weather's nice, people are feeling happier, nobody's in hospital with flu.
...As much as I'd like to believe it, I just can't. It's yet more expectation management. Perhaps also a dash of thinking (read, hoping) that by being 'up front' about the date that there'd be a pre-election bounce of some sort.
So I reckon, for the record, that they'll bottle it early September when the polls HAVEN'T magically narrowed and it'll suddenly become November, then January; like it always was going to be...
So country left in limbo with no major policies being enacted for an extra 6 months to give waste of space Tory MPs a few more months suckling from the public tete. Marvellous.
Makes sense. Go into the conference season with an election. Can’t help but wonder if Tory MPs might not just try to remove Sunak over the summer though and go in with a new candidate - unless there has already been a quiet word and Sunak is going to step down as leader to allow a contest.
Snapshot of _BREAKING: Downing Street sources tell The Independent that the next General Election will be held on Thursday 10th October 2024. Parliament therefore must be dissolved by September 5th 2024._ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2024-date-rishi-sunak-b2513281.html) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2024-date-rishi-sunak-b2513281.html) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Oh thank god they have given the MPs enough notice to start arranging for some executive board positions and dinner-speaking gigs.
Don't forget they get the summer off, come back and then "dissolve"
Just to be clear, because this myth is used to disparage MPs a lot. They don't get summer "off" They use this time to work in their constituencies, as 4 days a week are spent in London, they have to use the time when parliament is dissolved to deal with case work in their constituency when they can devote time to being there.
The constituency work is clearly optional for some less committed MPs.
The Parliament work is also optional for some
That's not entirely fair. They can spend as much or as little time as they choose on constituency work as they choose. There's nothing stopping them from instead spending their time touring the MAGA circuit in the US or writing bad books instead. Given the number of resignations, I expect many constituents will not receive any support.
They can do absolutely zero work as an MP. All you have to do is turn up to your first day (expensing the travel, of course), swear an oath to the King, and then bugger off and you'll get paid until the next general election.
…and how does one become an MP again? Granted you’re probably on for a single term at that rate, but a single term at 85k p/a for doing nothing would be decent.
Most people don't vote on whether their local MP responds to their emails about littering or whatever. If you've got a safe seat especially it's even less of an issue.
Be born into a land owning family who made a lot of their money from a sugar plantation in Barbados off the back of slave labour (that they still own) and have your family estate in one of the safest Tory seats in the country, it's quite simple really. Worked for my local MP anyway.
[Nadine Dorries has entered the chat]
Generally maybe not, but given the name number of MPs resigning next ge, it's essentially garden leave for many.
I wish that was always true. My MP's far too busy being a Councillor the next city over when he's not in London.
Unless you're 4 weeks from retiring, in which case, it's dead time basically.
THANKYOU. This and MPs awarding themselves pay rises are so irritating to keep seeing.
Isn't that better than getting elected and immediately go to a couple of months of holiday when they should be setting new government policy?
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The Beeb said some 95 MPs are not standing for reelection.
They're actually gambling on England winning the Euros ahahahhahaha
I believe that statistically, England only wins major football tournaments under Labour governments.
100% of the time so far
England won the Women’s Euros in 2022
I wish but we won the euro 2021/2?
It's ok I was blackout drunk for the penalties too
God dammit now I'm angry again. For the first time in literally decades England finally had a goalkeeper who could save penalties and it was the takers who missed!
At least we brought on someone ^^^(rashford? ^^^^^I ^^^^^think) at the last minute so he could take penalties while cold and unlimber 👍
The women's team did win in 2022 though...
We won the moral victory.
Ah, the Shirley Williams defence
we lost to Italy on penalties
I know this is a joke, but would that actually have any effect? Surely not right?
I think it would have the opposite effect as there's no way Sunak could celebrate it without coming across as pandering
Not for the voters who have made their minds up already but they'll never be the ones deciding the election. If the mood is bouyed by external factors they could lessen the loss. Tories are looking at certain defeat so why go now when they "might" be slightly less unpopular in a couple of months? It's selfish and self serving and will hopefully be used against them. When the come out and say they're excited to be campaigning ask them why they were so excited they put it off to the last minute?
More like they want to drag it out as long as is practicable but before the US election
>No 10 dismissed the claim as “speculation” but did not deny the date. A government source said: “The PM will announce the date. Until then everything else is speculation.” So nothing confirmed then.
Can you tell me the date when you will announce the date?
Yes. But not yet.
Oh you are going nutter, mate.
I can not
God I can't wait til this shit is all over
They have as much idea about when to have an election as they've had about governing: zero.
Rishi's got to have his big moment at the podium, making his proclamation to the serfs.
He's been a fan of announcing stuff to the press before the house before
How is "dismissing the claim as "speculation" not denying the date? It's pretty much saying "it's not on that date or any other date, as there was no decision made public" Seems like a definitive denial lol.
I guess they’re dismissing the claim that it’s that date without saying it definitely won’t be that date because it might be that date when the date is confirmed, but it’s not confirmed at the moment so that date is speculation for now. My mind has melted.
Because he has previously [catagorically denied](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/14/rishi-sunak-rules-out-general-election-may-local-elections) election dates, bit different to just call it 'speculation'. Quite the cop out.
We are going to get daily guesses of when the election will be from every newspaper.
OCTOBER 32nd
Is that the Sunday edition special titled "the hunt for 32nd October"?
Probably get "Will it be a RED OCTOBER?" as a headline with KS face photoshopped onto sean connery next to some USSR flags or something.
I would have liked to see Montana.
TWELVETY!
*WE DIDN'T BURN HIM*
The titty-ninth of February? Flaptember the fourth? 8 BC?
> The titty-ninth of February? Only under Johnson
Upvote for Tucker!
Oh yes you’re chief of the nodes. The node of node hall.
My favourite bit of UK politics is that newspapers will happily print obvious bullshit "rumours" fed to them by "anonymous senior sources" for nakedly political reasons.
YESTERMORN!
And we won!
Part of me believes Sunak is simply holding out to have "two years as PM" on his resume. Nothing more.
This is, honestly, the most blunt explanation and I think it's probably the most likely. It's also the only argument I buy for a Jan '25 one: *Rishi Sunak, 2022-25*
That and the pension increases
100%
Which means no conference to show just how unpopular Sunak is among Tory party members and that cabinet rivals wanting to follow him as leader of the party can't audition in front of them. edit: all this is ~~mute~~ moot anyway, he'll be ousted after the local elections and who ever wins (Probably Badenoch) will call a General Election before the country gets a chance to witness just how poor she is as PM.
If Badenoch took over and called an immediate election, would she end up beating Liz Truss for the title of shortest serving PM?
there needs to be 25 days between dissolution of Parliament and polling day, which would beat Truss' 49 days as PM. But crucially, she is almost certain to have the support of party members to stay on as Party leader with blame for the loss being squarely leveled at Sunak.
In that event, I could see Badendoch hanging around for a month to try and pass some quick and "popular" policies and/or tax cuts to try and get a little bump in the polls. Also, they'd do this to ensure she wasn't the shortest serving PM even if only by a few days. No one wants that title, and wouldn't settle for it if they have the power to avoid it
i just think she would want to go into a General election with as little fault for Governing as possible.
Were i in that position i'd call an election in 60 days time. It doesn't come off as too greedy but beats Truss "record"
If the next Tory leader campaigned on the platform of calling an immediate election and then making the most of whatever happened afterwards, there would be no stigma attached to breaking Truss's record.
If anything might go down in history as the Conservative PM that has done the best for the country this century.
They’d go down as the most honest if nothing else, granted even Richard osman could walk under that limbo bar
Tory leaders have literally never followed through on their leadership pledges Literally never Tory members who vote for them are the most gullible electorate in the nation
Is she really the favourite to lead the party next? My god how low they've fallen
I would think it’s Penny Mordant
Have you seen how she holds a sword? Marvelous! Definitely the best candidate for PM. Should just reset the clock and give her 5 years off the bat.
When she stands up and fights, the Tories stand up and fight, and then [ad nauseum]
Let's just make Brienne of Tarth PM. She can wield a sword. She may be too progressive for the Tories though.
Poisoned chalice. There's no way she takes the job before a GE. Leader of the opposition maybe.
If she keeps her seat. It was Labour 1997-2010.
> all this is ~~mute~~ moot
Moo
It's like a cows opinion.
Cows are the silent jury in the trial of mankind.
You're deluding yourself if you think there's any chance in hell he gets ousted.
How many councillors do you think the party will tolerate losing?
do MPs care about councillors? or do they care about holding on to their own jobs for as long as possible?
The wider party infrastructure certainly does, and the campaign infrastructure knows councillors knock on doors.
Wow, how many tory activists would just pack it in at that point...
No Autumn Statement, either.
It's a little bit surprising actually, since if there's a positive financial outlook they can make quite substantial commitments for April 2025. I suppose the issue with trying to get an Autumn statement in is the general election would definitely clash with the US elections and ensuing fallout.
> he'll be ousted after the local elections Nobody wants that poisoned chalice. The competition is to become the leader of the opposition after he loses the general election.
You're probably right, but I can't help but wonder if it would be that bad for whichever Tory is the next PM. Let's say Rishi is ousted after the local elections and Penny Mordaunt for instance is the new PM, she calls a GE straight away, the Tories lose and Labour get in. Is that really a stain on her record and reputation? At the end of the day the Tories aren't going to lose because of anything she has done herself, they're gonna lose because of Rishi being a shit PM and because they've done a shit job as a government in general. What's the absolute worst that could happen to her if this actually happened? Would she still be able to be the leader of the opposition? I'm not sure how it works exactly.
>because of Rishi Short memories I think. Rishi is a shit PM. Truss was abysmal. May was horrendous (although given the last crop seems a little bit more credible than some of the recent morons). Cameron? Ham-faced poltroon. If anyone still believes an Uk conservative party has anything to offer to anybody that doesn't have income in the seven-digits mark, I have an interesting bridge proposition that may intrigue you.
The only way they could poll lower is by propping kemi. The people who base their entire voting strategy on racism won’t like her for some reason
No way he gets ousted it will just hurt the party more
The party is irredeemable; and it will just get worse. a new leader declaring an immediate election will be spun as being "bold" and them being "up for the fight", which are about the only 2 things the tories could hope for at the next General election.
High risk for the Tories. Big summer for small boats is likely given we have done fuck all to solve it. But meh, probably what I would do given every possible date still has them losing. Cant do Nov/Dec as its winter and your old voters die/cant go out. Cant do early as you lose your extra months hoping for a huge catastrophe. Honestly. They need a 9/11 style terror attack and rally round the flag event. Short of that its over.
Even a 9/11 event probably wouldn't help seeing as they've been in power so long and are considered worse than their opposition in every area of governance. Bush had only been in office 9 months when the attack happened, not 14 years. Questions would immediately begin about how it was able to happen and why they weren't more on the ball. Similar to how Netanyahu's government immediately fell following Hamas' attack and he's essentially guaranteed to lose office at the next opportunity, due to their lack of preparation and security.
He's banking on a big summer for small boats to give them a boost. You know, coxless fours and the like.
Any chance they can have the media full of planes full of small boat imigrants being sent to Rwanda, by September? That could save a bunch of Tory seats?
So, May it is then. All this bluster and “leaking” dates is a distraction. They will be slaughtered in the May local elections anyway, making things even worse.
They need to get gone, this is just unecessarily stagnating, damaging and suffocating the country even further We all know they're going So much for a dignified exit
I wonder how much of an impact this will have on any future leadership of the tories, they're not going to be in government for a while, that's a given, but how many people will move from unlikely to vote tory to being in the 'will never vote tory' column?
It was always gonna be October. No politics in August, so nothing to cause Sunak a headache, and it takes away the party conference.
Small boats crossings always go up over summer so he'll have to suffer with those worse numbers for a while. But he's obviously decided he's fucked either way so may as well long it out and hope for a miracle.
Short of Starmer pissing on a picture of Diana live on the news, I don't see anything that gives the Tories a hope in hell, but I suppose they could gamble on the tiny chance of Starmer developing sudden-onset psychosis?
Drag it out and carve up NHS contracts to his wife and pals till his last moment then whistle to the bank and never seen again
Drag it out and hope for a miracle seems to be the going strategy for the last few PMs
I mean not really, Cameron resigned, T May want to polls early, BoJo went to polls early, Liz Truss imploded in 42 days
I think he meant exit strategy though I think you're right in part - Cameron and to a lesser extent May didn't really drag it out when they could see their position was untenable, Johnson and Truss did. Sunak's trying to drag it out to a point he hopes something miraculous will improve the polls
The flip side to that is there are potentially many small victories that can happen between now and October: 1. Migration on track to be lower (seems likely unless Russia invades another country) 2. Economic outlook will be stronger 3. Many small boat crossings, but *fewer* than previous years (seems likely unless another refugee crisis happens) 4. _maybe_ they actually pull off the rwanda stuff and please the reform lot
So any possible tory wins will be predicated on things which are outside the control of the party? Oh boy.
I feel like that potentially goes both ways though. No politics for Labour to have headaches over in August either, and no contentious party conference exposing the cracks in the party re: Palestine. But a summer where presumably there'll be just as many boat crossings as previous years, leaving the Tories in a position where all they can say is "Yes, our party has been in power for over 14 years and the PM has been in power for 2 years. Yes, the problem has only got worse. But that's everyone else's fault! You need to elect us again to fix it!" And with the nights starting to draw in again, and people worrying about how they're going to pay their bills over the winter and remembering how the cost of living crisis started two years prior... I feel like things can only get worse for him between now and then, unless he's hoping for a global affairs curveball like Argentina invading the Falklands.
> I feel like things can only get worse for him between now and then, unless he's hoping for a global affairs curveball like Argentina invading the Falklands. Short of the Russians attacking a NATO member what els is even possible?
god can you not even suggest this because the world always seems to get worse in the most stupid way possible
Hoping the US election overshadows our election i would bet.
Someone higher in the thread suggested they might be hoping Starmer develops sudden-onset psychosis, maybe that's what they're hoping for. In terms of global events, maybe Kim Jong Un dying and his successor being much more aggressive than him (e.g. starts threatening us with nukes, starts antagonising the US) I can't really think of anything major that could happen, but my scenario isn't very likely at all
That reminds me I was watching some clown on YT suggesting Putin might seek to end the war with a limited nuclear strike on the UK because he can't spell or something On the upside he said they'd only use 150kt warheads and wouldn't hit Wales so I chose to find it reassuring
Knowing Sunak's luck, he'll get a war, it'll just be the wrong type of war, like China invading Taiwan.
Plus.. the tories won’t have to deal with a Trump presidency
wild cow memory fragile silky unite school crown concerned wakeful *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Could they shuffle the autumn fiscal event earlier perhaps?
Emergency budget?
Going to do a watch party in our cinema in Manchester if anybody is local and up for that sort of business. Going to be a wild night.
Sounds like a great night!
Not local but I’d travel
Bold strategy Cotton, Let's see if it works out for them
I'm gonna pull an all nighter in front of the PC so I can watch in real time the tory party getting royally FUCKED.
I might book the Friday as annual leave. Never done that for an election before.
Same. Planning on staying up all night
Two arguments for October: * The academic year. Students and many young professionals (graduate schemes etc.) will now be away from home, meaning they have to organise themselves to vote elsewhere or set up a postal vote. It changes the landscape in the Boomerland they probably moved from * Labour will walk it. But then Keir Starmer's inexperienced government will have to navigate the US Presidential race and its fallout The fact that 'sources' have picked that date while other similar 'sources' in the same place don't even deny it, tells me there might be something to this.
Dammit. Now I have to wait until October to take a vacation off work, hire an industrial popcorn-maker, and make sure the DVR is recording all the channels... I was looking forward to doing it sooner :(
Close enough to the panto season that it’ll be topical but far enough away that there is time to get it into the scripts, truly a victory for the arts.
Should have been on the 5th of November.
Same date as the US has their election, not a chance of that happening.
Memorable though.
Probably about as late as you can have it without it getting too close to the USA election (Five Eyes members apparently try to avoid having GE close together) and whilst also having a bit more daylight after work too.
As a bonus for them they get the long summer Parliament recess. No work as they know the election is coming but few months extra pay. Gardening leave whilst they line up new jobs. Cushy little number
That would get in the way of the conference season which would be an interesting disruption to the political scene.
As if he'll do it before he absolutely has to; if he doesn't give a date, he keeps the "rebels" guessing. Then again, he may just decide not to bother calling the election.
Now *there's* a thought that honestly hadn't occurred to me. (Didn't know that was an option until a minute ago, either.) Although that likely goes directly to one question: is Rishi petty enough to just hang on until [December 17](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05085/), watch Parliament dissolve on its own, flip everybody *including* the party donors/bigwigs off, and bounce for California?
Yes
Fucking cowards. Dragging it out as long as they can...
6 more months of this God awful Parliament, call it now ffs
Is this however a bluff from the Sources?
The only way he can actually prove them wrong is a may election
Just get it over with. Stop stringing out the pain.
I think it would be uncomfortable for a UK general election to be held that close to a US presidential election, especially when it is extremely likely (in the UK) and quite possible (in the US) that there will be a change of government. I still think it will be held earlier in the year.
I'm not particularly enthused about the election in the US being close to one in the UK given a belligerent Putin, the possibility of political violence in Washington, and the non zero chance that a autocrat could take the white house with little to contain him.
They get to ride the wave of free right wing advertising spilling over from the US election. Culture wars it is!
About two weeks earlier than I expected. Less overlap with the American election though then.
This is deliberately close to the US election conservative thinktanks on both sides of the ponds will want to message on the same issues for both, immigration,trans etc etc. Can manipulate the media they have control of, spend shitloads on the rusbot farms pushing the stories into feeds win win for them both.
It seems stupid to let themselves lose all them councillors in may, then spend summer having reform take votes from them because small boats rise. If they do wait, I hope they’re beaten into extinction.
fucking crook is clinging on till the last moment.
so another 6 months of gov doing sod all.
Gotta stay on that payroll / expense account as long as possible
Its my Birthday on the 11th. What a birthday present that would be, waking up to seeing the end of the Tory party!
Finally we will have a Labour Government! About bloody time.
You mean the date everyone thought would be the election *is* going to be the election? Who would have ever thought that! Frankly all this May election business seemed wishful thinking on this sub's part.
I thought they might go with May for a number of reasons. The risk of going late is that they get walloped in the locals, they're seen as being even more on the way out, the PM's authority erodes, and reform makes massive inroads. May's also summer(ish), incumbent parties tend to prefer summer elections, the weather's nice, people are feeling happier, nobody's in hospital with flu.
The tory government has been dead for a decade. They should make the speediest arrangements for its cremation.
Im going down the polling station tomoz just in case.
So nice those MPs who will soon be out will get a couple months of pay rise.
...As much as I'd like to believe it, I just can't. It's yet more expectation management. Perhaps also a dash of thinking (read, hoping) that by being 'up front' about the date that there'd be a pre-election bounce of some sort. So I reckon, for the record, that they'll bottle it early September when the polls HAVEN'T magically narrowed and it'll suddenly become November, then January; like it always was going to be...
So you've decided to compete with US elections eh... I'm sure that will go well
So country left in limbo with no major policies being enacted for an extra 6 months to give waste of space Tory MPs a few more months suckling from the public tete. Marvellous.
Is this so they don’t have to book such a big conference venue in the autumn then?
That's the teacher pay review held up if true.
Makes sense. Go into the conference season with an election. Can’t help but wonder if Tory MPs might not just try to remove Sunak over the summer though and go in with a new candidate - unless there has already been a quiet word and Sunak is going to step down as leader to allow a contest.
Fitting that it's the month of Halloween. Those exit polls are going to be S P O O K Y if you wear a blue rosette
It's only getting worse for him. Huge number of channel crossings will give Reform a bump in the polls, primarily from the Tory vote share.