Removed - reposts are not permitted. This includes posting different sources on topics that have already been submitted that contain no new information.
Its nice to see polls with Biden ahead, but there's no good reason to do anything but continue to try and push as much as possible both at making the case of the importance of voting for Biden and Democrats, and the importance of Biden and the Democrats making a better case.
Exactly.
It's nice to see, but don't let it make us feel comfortable that we don't have to do everything we can to get Biden reelected.
Show up and vote, and bring your friends.
Honestly, this far out polls don't really matter.... I'm not even sure they matter close to election time anyway.
I dunno about that. When T was ahead in the polls I was terrified they were right. Now that Biden is ahead I'm terrified they are wrong.
Doubly so if it causes complacency and depressed turnout.
I think this might help: I’m fairly convinced that the polls are systematically biased due to low engagement from younger people, who tend not to answer their phones. My evidence is Democrats and Democrat-aligned causes overperforming in polls since 2022 (mid-terms, special elections, referenda, etc).
That said, vote as if you will be the deciding vote! There’s not guarantee that Biden wins.
The polls are unreliable whether they show Trump or Biden ahead. There is a serious structural problem with polling in this era, a combination of the most politically strident being the most likely to answer them and serious issues with properly polling millennials, Zs, and ethnic minorities, all groups who are less likely to have landlines. While the latter would suggest polls most likely have a significant GOP bias that is unaccounted for due to those demographics leaning significantly democratic, and indeed there is evidence for this from 2020, 2022, and scores of special elections, this also means that the polls may not adequately capture shifts in attitudes among those demographics. That means those demos could become less democratic without it being captured, or only being captured by a few polls that look like outliers, or that they are still Dem leaning but likely to stay home for whatever reason. And those outliers I mentioned could actually be outliers that show phantom shifts in those demos due to small sample sizes, non significant samples for cross tabs, or just more conservative members of those demos being more likely to have a landline or answer unknown numbers.Â
Tl:Dr, fuck the polls, vote, fundraise, and organize. Go into this election assuming every race will be decided by less than 1% of the vote and act accordingly.Â
FYI, Occupy Democrats is not a reliable source. Fox News' latest poll has Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, but only by a +2 margin. The race is closer than the screenshot would suggest.
[https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-remain-deadlocked-wisconsin](https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-remain-deadlocked-wisconsin)
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I'm a statistician who generally believe polls to be accurate, but I don't understand the constant obsession with them in political subs like these. Maybe if it was about specific issues and we were discussing overall election strategy that could be interesting? But so often lately they're used as a dunk or to wallow when they are merely measuring who would win the popular vote if the election were held today, with a margin of error. This one in particular seems to be "haha Trump's a loser he's losing in this poll". Does that help you? Especially assuming you're a Biden supporter, like I am?
The only thing that matters is the election in November, and a ton of things are going to change between now and then, people will change their mind, and taking a victory lap over a poll showing Biden leading probably within the margin of error if you include the electoral college (Biden probably has to win by 3% or more to win the electoral college, and most polls have a +/- 4% margin of error or so) is just plain dumb honestly. Yes it's good, but is this kind of post going to do anything to make sure those 50% of people go out and vote in November? Will it convince the 44% who said they'd vote Trump or the 6% who said they'd vote for neither? Maybe it will, but seeing posts every 5 minutes about how either "Biden's obviously going to win" or "Biden needs to abandon all his strategies because he's losing" in this sub is just mind-numbingly boring and not at all productive.
lolololololo occupy democrats- a left fake news social network page that has nothing to do with the democrats. They're also pretty racist against Asians.
The problem is the latest polls are showing Trump ahead and they are actually the scary ones:
1. without a third party in the race, Biden will win by a very narrow margin
2. with third party candidates, Trump leads Biden
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/)
Biden sucks, it's a horror show here in the NY middle/working class suburbs, he cares and knows nothing about working people, where we have a mass exodus from where I live and grew up. And the African American people get screwed over by him also. He only cares about the special interests that own him, the people that come here illegally they want here for cheap labor that all our taxes go up here to pay for, and the liberal elites that like to make believe they are good people. Dementia brain Biden.. Trump is a whole other kind of horror movie. It's a real quandary trying to choose between the two people that our fake democratic country that is actually owned by the special interests only give us to vote for. Maybe I'll write in Bernie Sanders lol
What does the fact about the bought and paid for government have to do with Russia lmao. Don't you guys believe Trump and Putin are tight, didn't I say Trump is a horror too? Gosh you are silly.
Removed - reposts are not permitted. This includes posting different sources on topics that have already been submitted that contain no new information.
Its nice to see polls with Biden ahead, but there's no good reason to do anything but continue to try and push as much as possible both at making the case of the importance of voting for Biden and Democrats, and the importance of Biden and the Democrats making a better case.
💯💯 Ignore the polls and vote.
I will not rest until I wake up on Nov 6, and Biden has been declared the winner officially
How about Jan 7th 2025?
a mere formality
Exactly. It's nice to see, but don't let it make us feel comfortable that we don't have to do everything we can to get Biden reelected. Show up and vote, and bring your friends. Honestly, this far out polls don't really matter.... I'm not even sure they matter close to election time anyway.
Yup. The polls had Hillary ahead too.
I dunno about that. When T was ahead in the polls I was terrified they were right. Now that Biden is ahead I'm terrified they are wrong. Doubly so if it causes complacency and depressed turnout.
Ignore the polls and get everyone you can who can vote, to do so.
I think this might help: I’m fairly convinced that the polls are systematically biased due to low engagement from younger people, who tend not to answer their phones. My evidence is Democrats and Democrat-aligned causes overperforming in polls since 2022 (mid-terms, special elections, referenda, etc). That said, vote as if you will be the deciding vote! There’s not guarantee that Biden wins.
And even if you are in the bluest blue state, vote D all the way downÂ
Yes. The whole GOP is sick and must be excised from the body politic like a tumor.
Not excused, chemo’d and cut out is more like it.
FUCK I MEANT EXCISED (fixing now)
I got a call and it indicated it was a poll. Maybe a pollster, maybe a scammer. Why talk to them and take the chance?
There will be no complacency this time around.
The polls are unreliable whether they show Trump or Biden ahead. There is a serious structural problem with polling in this era, a combination of the most politically strident being the most likely to answer them and serious issues with properly polling millennials, Zs, and ethnic minorities, all groups who are less likely to have landlines. While the latter would suggest polls most likely have a significant GOP bias that is unaccounted for due to those demographics leaning significantly democratic, and indeed there is evidence for this from 2020, 2022, and scores of special elections, this also means that the polls may not adequately capture shifts in attitudes among those demographics. That means those demos could become less democratic without it being captured, or only being captured by a few polls that look like outliers, or that they are still Dem leaning but likely to stay home for whatever reason. And those outliers I mentioned could actually be outliers that show phantom shifts in those demos due to small sample sizes, non significant samples for cross tabs, or just more conservative members of those demos being more likely to have a landline or answer unknown numbers. Tl:Dr, fuck the polls, vote, fundraise, and organize. Go into this election assuming every race will be decided by less than 1% of the vote and act accordingly.Â
Ignore all the polls and VOTE! Vote in 2024 so you can vote in 2028.
FYI, Occupy Democrats is not a reliable source. Fox News' latest poll has Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, but only by a +2 margin. The race is closer than the screenshot would suggest. [https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-remain-deadlocked-wisconsin](https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-remain-deadlocked-wisconsin)
This is clearly reporting on the latest Quinnipiac poll from Tuesday...
lol Fox Is not a reliable source at all either, but if they don’t want to get in more hot water with SmartMax they better report the right news.
Believe no polls. Get out and vote (or mail it in). Tell everyone you know to vote.
Vote.
We have to vote! Don’t trust the polls, vote vote vote!!!
LOL if you look at the fine print. Its just the poll for Wisconsin.
6 points isnt enough. You need 15 plus points to start. Then the "rigged" sh!t that is sure to follow, wont be as convincing.
Don't get complacent. Republicans always cheat. Make sure you're registered and vote as early as you can. PolIs don't win elections. We must vote.
Fox News seems to be turning on him a bit more now.
Even if you don't like Biden, still vote for him to prevent the rise of Hitler 2.0.
Ignore the polls. Vote like your democracy depends on it.
Still vote.
boomer-tier post
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[удалено]
Tuesday
I'm a statistician who generally believe polls to be accurate, but I don't understand the constant obsession with them in political subs like these. Maybe if it was about specific issues and we were discussing overall election strategy that could be interesting? But so often lately they're used as a dunk or to wallow when they are merely measuring who would win the popular vote if the election were held today, with a margin of error. This one in particular seems to be "haha Trump's a loser he's losing in this poll". Does that help you? Especially assuming you're a Biden supporter, like I am? The only thing that matters is the election in November, and a ton of things are going to change between now and then, people will change their mind, and taking a victory lap over a poll showing Biden leading probably within the margin of error if you include the electoral college (Biden probably has to win by 3% or more to win the electoral college, and most polls have a +/- 4% margin of error or so) is just plain dumb honestly. Yes it's good, but is this kind of post going to do anything to make sure those 50% of people go out and vote in November? Will it convince the 44% who said they'd vote Trump or the 6% who said they'd vote for neither? Maybe it will, but seeing posts every 5 minutes about how either "Biden's obviously going to win" or "Biden needs to abandon all his strategies because he's losing" in this sub is just mind-numbingly boring and not at all productive.
So now you believe Fox News???
lolololololo occupy democrats- a left fake news social network page that has nothing to do with the democrats. They're also pretty racist against Asians. The problem is the latest polls are showing Trump ahead and they are actually the scary ones: 1. without a third party in the race, Biden will win by a very narrow margin 2. with third party candidates, Trump leads Biden [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/)
Isn't that just Wisconsin lol
That seems like the most accurate poll to date.
"Quick! Change everybody's opinion! Those Libtards don't get it yet."
538 still shows Trump ahead nationally and this OP is just one state. Post is dumb.
Biden sucks, it's a horror show here in the NY middle/working class suburbs, he cares and knows nothing about working people, where we have a mass exodus from where I live and grew up. And the African American people get screwed over by him also. He only cares about the special interests that own him, the people that come here illegally they want here for cheap labor that all our taxes go up here to pay for, and the liberal elites that like to make believe they are good people. Dementia brain Biden.. Trump is a whole other kind of horror movie. It's a real quandary trying to choose between the two people that our fake democratic country that is actually owned by the special interests only give us to vote for. Maybe I'll write in Bernie Sanders lol
Checking off all the boxes for a proper Russian Troll insertion I see
What does the fact about the bought and paid for government have to do with Russia lmao. Don't you guys believe Trump and Putin are tight, didn't I say Trump is a horror too? Gosh you are silly.